15/06/2014 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


15/06/2014

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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

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The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

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The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

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What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

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It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

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that? In the North East and Cumbrha:

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even Westminster, we'll be asking The Conservatives try to broaden

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their appeal in the North. And the Government promised free

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schools meals in September, but this Cumbrian school dods not

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even have a kitchen. In London, why the minority vote one

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recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger

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than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known

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as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern

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and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked

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like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has

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now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army

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and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that

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a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri

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al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation

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of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi

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army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or

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surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a

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humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to

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consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts

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of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias

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are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way

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partition a real possibility with The US is moving another

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of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,

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though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help

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its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports

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that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's

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diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who

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are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS

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is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure

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Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.

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What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not

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recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they

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could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as

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far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of

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Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,

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along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,

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2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was

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called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and

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bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in

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large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their

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side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is

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a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer

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that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia

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Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We

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can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,

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South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What

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is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a

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consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are

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trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major

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city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the

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power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys

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in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would

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like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could

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take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they

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have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these

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newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can

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effectively counter-attacked. But that is what will happen in the next

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week or two. We will see increasingly large and serious

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government counter-attacked trying to retake those places, and I fear a

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really difficult, bloody Syrian style street by street battle for

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some of these urban centres. I would like to have a look at this map

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because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their

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position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking

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over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim

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are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south

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and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.

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-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways

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Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi

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combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see

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millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a

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lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type

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partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of

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Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will

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occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an

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awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard

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about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.

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It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and

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if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always

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be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.

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Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border

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with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming

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a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago I

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did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform

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They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers

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have been never some time and they are also said to protect the

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political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think

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more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise

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the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.

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Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.

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Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.

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He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing

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That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.

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This morning he entered the debate about what should be

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My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11

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happened and you have the Arab revolutions going through Tunisia,

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Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and Syria, you would still have had a

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major problem in Iraq. You can see what happens when you leave the

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dictator in place, as has happened with Bashar al-Assad. The problem

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doesn't go away. What I'm trying to say is, we can rerun the debates

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about 2003, and there are perfectly legitimate points on either side,

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but where we are in 2014, we have do understand that this is a regional

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problem, but a problem that will affect us.

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And I'm joined by the former Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown,

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Here in London are James Rubin, he was chief spokesman

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for the State Department under Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman,

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she represents the Kurdistan Regional government in the UK.

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Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles, we don't intervene in Syria, it s a

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shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed

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question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.

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Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an

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intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him to stay quiet during

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moments like this, because it does drive a great surge of people in the

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other direction. The fact is, what has been missing in western politics

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towards the Middle East throughout both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a

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drive to build an inclusive, democratic centre which is secular

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and nonsectarian. That has been missing amongst the threats of

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invasion Manon invasion, we have just constantly neglected the

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diplomatic nation-building dimensional this. I want to come

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onto what is happening on the ground. I want to begin with what

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the Western response by me, and by that we mean the United States,

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because of it doesn't do anything, nobody will do anything. All of the

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signals I see coming out of the White is that Barack Obama has no

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appetite for intervention -- out of the White House. I don't think he

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does have an appetite. He would be very unlikely to do anything very

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large. He might feel pressured to act because of the fact that this

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particular group, this Al-Qaeda inspired group, fits into the

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strategy he has pursued in Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use

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drone strikes against individual terrorists. So it is possible that

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the threat of ISIS in the region and the West in general might inspire

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him to act, but the idea he will do enough, militarily, to transform

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Iraq from its current state of civil War into something along the lines

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that Mark was talking about, nation-building diplomacy, a big

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operation, I don't see President Obama sees his historic mission as

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having got the United States as out of it. Leave it to the Pacific,

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perhaps. What would the Kurds like the West to do? First of all, in

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Kurdistan we face a huge humanitarian crisis. We already have

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had bought a quarter of a million Syrian refugees and we were

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struggling to cope with that. And now we have at least double that

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number of refugees coming from Mosul. First and foremost, we are

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calling on the international community to help us with that. So

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we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe

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not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent

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on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I

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think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be

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supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the

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federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is

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first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily

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intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,

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provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more

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targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the

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disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be

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abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.

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But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.

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We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have

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seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we

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ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,

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this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and

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from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through

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to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and

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Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made

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earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic

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divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for

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this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise

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although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq

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instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century

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boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable

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because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc

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and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the

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last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are

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we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from

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here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and

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thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it

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is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto

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Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the

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idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination

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going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may

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end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded

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with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key

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thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two

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groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done

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is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.

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We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni

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extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the

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great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go

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into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now If

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in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability

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that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to

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have to do something about it. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your

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southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all

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making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never

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be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose

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federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what

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it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the

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make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the

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political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside

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their differences or there will be problems. This provides that

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opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I think

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this is the end of a rack as we know it. If anything resembling a

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caliphate emerges, that is very destabilising for the region itself.

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More so I would suggest than even the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in

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Afghanistan. At some stage, you have to assume that they will be coming

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for us. That is correct. This is extremely dangerous. The only way

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forward is for these political groups to talk to each other and

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find a compromise that allows the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected within or the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected with an autonomous federal-state. Any

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support for the government must be premised on that. There is no

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military solution for this which is in during -- there is no military

:18:47.:19:03.

solution for this. There must be serious political negotiation, not

:19:04.:19:08.

with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim moderates, to form a more

:19:09.:19:11.

representative government. This is the last chance for Iraq. I think we

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are all saying that that is going to need to be some major western

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leadership to make some big decisions here for the future of the

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region. I am concerned that after Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is

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quite world-weary, quite world-weary. It does not seem to be

:19:31.:19:35.

giving leadership. Certainly we are not seeing that in Europe. I am

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deeply concerned that we are not going to take the leadership role

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that needs to be taken. These are big issues. When Britain and France

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carved up the Middle East, they were world powers, operating as global

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powers, and without that global leadership by somebody, this is just

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going to get worse and worse. I think we will leave it there, thank

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you very much. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. It is just under 100 days until the

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referendum on Scottish independence. So, for once,

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it'll be a long hot-summer But the campaign isn't

:20:14.:20:15.

just getting heated. In places it's also

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down-right nasty. When Scotland's best-selling author

:20:21.:20:22.

announced she was giving the unionist cause a million pounds

:20:23.:20:24.

this week, she received Independence supporters online,

:20:25.:20:26.

so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor

:20:27.:20:34.

and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together

:20:35.:20:37.

campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,

:20:38.:20:41.

and this week he criticised Conservative ministers

:20:42.:20:44.

for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival

:20:45.:20:46.

approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to

:20:47.:20:51.

engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from

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Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,

:20:55.:21:00.

and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you

:21:01.:21:20.

first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond

:21:21.:21:24.

not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the

:21:25.:21:28.

debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number

:21:29.:21:34.

of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling

:21:35.:21:38.

themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a

:21:39.:21:43.

fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably

:21:44.:21:46.

total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not

:21:47.:21:50.

to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty

:21:51.:21:55.

people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there

:21:56.:21:59.

are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the

:22:00.:22:05.

Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to

:22:06.:22:10.

people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,

:22:11.:22:15.

and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a

:22:16.:22:22.

democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is

:22:23.:22:26.

characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out

:22:27.:22:30.

of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get

:22:31.:22:36.

to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and

:22:37.:22:38.

you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I

:22:39.:22:43.

think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging

:22:44.:22:48.

in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we

:22:49.:22:54.

want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United

:22:55.:22:58.

Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,

:22:59.:23:05.

particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to

:23:06.:23:10.

support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on

:23:11.:23:15.

social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.

:23:16.:23:20.

We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come

:23:21.:23:28.

This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What

:23:29.:23:32.

is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I

:23:33.:23:38.

understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but

:23:39.:23:46.

it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that

:23:47.:23:51.

we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,

:23:52.:23:56.

it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was

:23:57.:24:01.

varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people

:24:02.:24:05.

think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against

:24:06.:24:10.

Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of

:24:11.:24:19.

four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,

:24:20.:24:23.

Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to

:24:24.:24:29.

the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most

:24:30.:24:33.

incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.

:24:34.:24:41.

Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.

:24:42.:24:46.

Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting

:24:47.:24:50.

fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if

:24:51.:24:54.

people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and

:24:55.:24:59.

opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the

:25:00.:25:03.

accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK

:25:04.:25:07.

Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars

:25:08.:25:11.

and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.

:25:12.:25:18.

How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.

:25:19.:25:26.

Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is

:25:27.:25:29.

running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than

:25:30.:25:35.

Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair

:25:36.:25:40.

Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il

:25:41.:25:43.

and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need

:25:44.:25:49.

to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It

:25:50.:25:56.

is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I

:25:57.:26:03.

think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You

:26:04.:26:08.

have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?

:26:09.:26:14.

The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.

:26:15.:26:21.

You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be

:26:22.:26:25.

flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at

:26:26.:26:31.

all and neither is the campaign The campaign has asked questions and I

:26:32.:26:35.

think it is legitimate to ask questions of the people proposing

:26:36.:26:39.

such a fundamental change. People care about the economy, their jobs,

:26:40.:26:44.

their families. What would happen to them if they leave the rest of the

:26:45.:26:50.

United Kingdom. I think it is legitimate to ask questions. I

:26:51.:26:52.

refuse to be asked of scaremongering. People deserve

:26:53.:27:00.

answers. The yes campaign is equally guilty of some of the most

:27:01.:27:07.

outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you are both scaremongering. Blair

:27:08.:27:13.

Jenkins, the First Minister said of the cyber nationalists, that they

:27:14.:27:17.

are just Daft folk, as if they were mischievous little children. It is

:27:18.:27:23.

worse than that. When you look at what they say, they are twisted

:27:24.:27:29.

perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they

:27:30.:27:33.

are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this

:27:34.:27:38.

campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around

:27:39.:27:43.

Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned

:27:44.:27:49.

out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes

:27:50.:27:53.

campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know

:27:54.:27:59.

we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of

:28:00.:28:05.

polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion

:28:06.:28:09.

polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.

:28:10.:28:14.

Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.

:28:15.:28:20.

You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying

:28:21.:28:26.

in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280

:28:27.:28:33.

hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your

:28:34.:28:36.

hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the

:28:37.:28:42.

campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then

:28:43.:28:48.

why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are

:28:49.:28:56.

taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits

:28:57.:29:00.

of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and

:29:01.:29:04.

more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United

:29:05.:29:08.

Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things

:29:09.:29:13.

like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the

:29:14.:29:19.

issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one

:29:20.:29:24.

very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the

:29:25.:29:31.

England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be

:29:32.:29:35.

delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in

:29:36.:29:39.

the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I

:29:40.:29:43.

would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think

:29:44.:29:49.

it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I

:29:50.:29:55.

was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.

:29:56.:30:01.

Now most of you probably missed last night's football match

:30:02.:30:04.

between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and

:30:05.:30:07.

England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.

:30:08.:30:11.

But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever

:30:12.:30:14.

and with speculation about the fitness of each political

:30:15.:30:16.

party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.

:30:17.:30:23.

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:30:24.:30:25.

This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football

:30:26.:30:39.

stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for

:30:40.:30:46.

these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon

:30:47.:30:47.

and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian

:30:48.:30:50.

barbecue. And at Westminster they're

:30:51.:30:52.

turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.

:30:53.:31:01.

We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start

:31:02.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?

:31:07.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I'm afraid

:31:07.:31:14.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got

:31:15.:31:17.

Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next

:31:18.:31:25.

to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and

:31:26.:31:26.

vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very

:31:27.:31:28.

popular since she fell out with him out how

:31:29.:31:30.

to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation

:31:31.:31:33.

about him taking on him in Do you think there will be any

:31:34.:31:36.

reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any

:31:37.:31:47.

swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows? David Cameron has

:31:48.:31:56.

also got to replace the EU commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is

:31:57.:31:57.

standing down. Does he go with the favourite

:31:58.:31:59.

the former health secretary Or the grassroots choice,

:32:00.:32:01.

Martin Callanan, the Tories old Or does he rehabilitate

:32:02.:32:04.

Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate? Do you fancy being European

:32:05.:32:21.

Commissioner? I would rather be spending the money on the world s

:32:22.:32:25.

poor and spending it well. Glad to hear it. Happy collecting.

:32:26.:32:27.

Right, there must be some Labour stickers out there.

:32:28.:32:30.

You don't want to swap Ed Balls any of the others? Can't I keep them

:32:31.:32:38.

all? This is almost the perfect team.

:32:39.:32:39.

There have been grumblings about the fitness of the Shadow

:32:40.:32:42.

And Ed Miliband's got a kicking in Liverpool after posing

:32:43.:32:46.

I'm told grown men are meeting up in pubs for sticker swaps -

:32:47.:32:57.

With Danny Finkelstein - Tory peer and Times columnist,

:32:58.:33:02.

He would be the card I would not want to trade. Do people want to

:33:03.:33:14.

trade him in? I don't think anybody wants to trade him in at the moment.

:33:15.:33:17.

He is the best person to lead the Labour party and will lead us into

:33:18.:33:21.

the next election. There's been a lot about Michael Gove, and he's

:33:22.:33:25.

very combative. That's been a huge strength as an education Secretary,

:33:26.:33:28.

despite the fact it's brought in trouble. I would think the prime

:33:29.:33:31.

minister would tell him not to get himself into peripheral battles at

:33:32.:33:35.

the moment but stick to what has been successful. I haven't got Nick

:33:36.:33:41.

Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I

:33:42.:33:47.

need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far

:33:48.:33:48.

better. There you are. Some local parties are holding

:33:49.:33:52.

meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week

:33:53.:33:55.

they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.

:33:56.:34:07.

Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do

:34:08.:34:11.

that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy

:34:12.:34:14.

collecting. These beauties are popping up

:34:15.:34:17.

everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around

:34:18.:34:20.

Westminster as I speak. I'm joined

:34:21.:34:30.

by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers

:34:31.:34:32.

throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch

:34:33.:34:34.

the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the

:34:35.:34:44.

break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,

:34:45.:34:47.

senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They

:34:48.:34:56.

are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this

:34:57.:35:01.

jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.

:35:02.:35:07.

What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference and

:35:08.:35:13.

people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking

:35:14.:35:16.

too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that

:35:17.:35:21.

drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on

:35:22.:35:25.

manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he

:35:26.:35:28.

believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.

:35:29.:35:35.

It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the

:35:36.:35:38.

economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.

:35:39.:35:48.

Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails

:35:49.:35:54.

of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more

:35:55.:35:56.

popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an

:35:57.:36:01.

extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while

:36:02.:36:05.

never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing

:36:06.:36:08.

government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant

:36:09.:36:12.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:13.:36:14.

political Charente. piece of political Charente and they

:36:15.:36:17.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I

:36:18.:36:22.

have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots

:36:23.:36:26.

taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read

:36:27.:36:30.

strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people

:36:31.:36:34.

watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on

:36:35.:36:40.

for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe

:36:41.:36:47.

brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so

:36:48.:36:51.

much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris

:36:52.:36:57.

Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,

:36:58.:37:03.

they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this

:37:04.:37:06.

week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove

:37:07.:37:12.

had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he

:37:13.:37:16.

said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative

:37:17.:37:20.

party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two

:37:21.:37:24.

years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it

:37:25.:37:28.

just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but

:37:29.:37:32.

I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,

:37:33.:37:36.

you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That

:37:37.:37:45.

is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit

:37:46.:37:52.

carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break

:37:53.:37:55.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:56.:37:57.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:58.:38:00.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking about Ed Miliband's

:38:01.:38:10.

Hello and a warm welcome to your local part of the show `

:38:11.:38:14.

more nerve`shredding than any World Cup football match,

:38:15.:38:16.

without the lovely Gary Lindker but hopefully no diving.

:38:17.:38:19.

This school has no kitchen, so how is it going to provide free school

:38:20.:38:25.

We are in Cumbria finding ott if the coalition's promises can be met

:38:26.:38:31.

My guests, kicking around the week's issues, whth no

:38:32.:38:34.

Labour's former Chief Whip, Newcastle MP Nick Brown and,

:38:35.:38:37.

for the Conservatives, David Skelton ` the man who is trying to revive

:38:38.:38:41.

Tory fortunes in the north, a job some might say that is even

:38:42.:38:44.

But first, the Government s`ys 47,000 new jobs have been created

:38:45.:38:50.

But this week it emerged th`t weekly earnings are continuing to fall

:38:51.:38:56.

The pay packets of women in particular are down, mord than

:38:57.:38:58.

Nick Brown, the Prime Minister was right at Prime Minister's Qtestions

:38:59.:39:15.

this week. Employment did go faster this quarter than anywhere dlse in

:39:16.:39:24.

the country. The questions to the Prime Minister asked about poverty

:39:25.:39:32.

in work. Two thirds of children who are living below the povertx line

:39:33.:39:36.

are in families where someone is working. Work is not the pathway out

:39:37.:39:45.

of poverty here. The answer is that we need more jobs and a better

:39:46.:39:52.

spread of jobs. David Skelton, on the face of its the news is next,

:39:53.:40:03.

isn't it? People are not fedling the benefit of being in work. It is good

:40:04.:40:08.

news that more people are in work. We have two think about the legacy

:40:09.:40:15.

that the coalition was faced with. Labour were not doing enough to get

:40:16.:40:23.

this done. We still had the highest unemployment in the country after 13

:40:24.:40:28.

years of Labour government. Now I think a lot is being done to make

:40:29.:40:31.

sure that more businesses are created. But the government will not

:40:32.:40:39.

get credit for that unless wages rise. You need a long`term growth in

:40:40.:40:48.

the region. I think it is rhght to acknowledge what the governlent has

:40:49.:40:52.

done to help people who are struggling. Between 2004 and 20 0,

:40:53.:41:01.

the government increased thd minimum wage and took the poorest pdople out

:41:02.:41:09.

of tax altogether. This is not a good use of statistics. Durhng the

:41:10.:41:15.

period of the Labour governlent this area had the fastest growth of

:41:16.:41:24.

any English region. There w`s an agency that focused on the `rea and

:41:25.:41:30.

worked for the region. I was a regional minister and was able to

:41:31.:41:43.

intervene on a number of issues Let us top about something else.

:41:44.:41:45.

When the Conservatives lost their North`East seat in last month's Euro

:41:46.:41:48.

elections, it was another low in the party's spiral of decline.

:41:49.:41:50.

It is hard to imagine, but back in the 1970s the Tories

:41:51.:41:53.

controlled big city councils like Sunderland and Newcastle,

:41:54.:41:55.

while, even under Mrs Thatcher, places like Darlington and Tynemouth

:41:56.:41:58.

It is all very different now, of course.

:41:59.:42:01.

But the Conservative Party hs not giving up without a fight

:42:02.:42:03.

and has launched a campaign to broaden its appeal in the North

:42:04.:42:08.

But do not be misled by the yachts, this County Durham town has coal

:42:09.:42:13.

dust in its veins and has h`d Labour MPs for almost a century

:42:14.:42:17.

Maybe not the best place to hunt for potential Tories.

:42:18.:42:21.

Actually, there is somewherd in Seaham that is true blue and this is

:42:22.:42:24.

It has actually got hundreds of members,

:42:25.:42:29.

But if you join the club, you do not have to join the Conservatives.

:42:30.:42:34.

You just have to say that you are prepared to vote Tory.

:42:35.:42:37.

Even that takes some guts for working`class men

:42:38.:42:40.

Ask them for their views on Cameron's Conservatives, though and

:42:41.:42:45.

He talks out of the back of his head, I think.

:42:46.:42:51.

You can?t believe anything that he says.

:42:52.:42:53.

I don't think much of him to be quite honest.

:42:54.:42:55.

I think he is a waste of tile as a leader.

:42:56.:42:58.

He was brought up by a millhonaire father and this sort of thing.

:42:59.:43:02.

You keep going on about the food banks and things like that, but they

:43:03.:43:10.

do not want to know about it, they do not even think they are there.

:43:11.:43:14.

The leaders of the party, the people at the top, are lore

:43:15.:43:17.

interested in being celebrities than running the country.

:43:18.:43:20.

There were some who were more supportive, but even the cltb

:43:21.:43:22.

chairman recognises that his party is not playing well in the North.

:43:23.:43:27.

We donate a lot of money to the Conservativd Party,

:43:28.:43:31.

from the Conservative Club, and we expect them to listen to us.

:43:32.:43:35.

If they do not start listenhng to us, they are going to lose

:43:36.:43:39.

So what concerns do members feel are being ignored?

:43:40.:43:43.

Immigration certainly came tp and the north`south divide too.

:43:44.:43:46.

And there was disquiet about the legacy of a missing Conserv`tive.

:43:47.:43:49.

You will not find a picture of Margaret Thatcher here,

:43:50.:43:52.

because the chairman says it would not go down well.

:43:53.:43:55.

The irony here is that if D`ve here had managed to secure as many

:43:56.:43:58.

northern voters as Maggie dhd, he would now be the Prime Mhnister

:43:59.:44:01.

of a Conservative Government and not just a coalition.

:44:02.:44:05.

So the Conservative brand in the North does seem to nded

:44:06.:44:07.

Time, perhaps, to take specialist advice.

:44:08.:44:11.

Cravens is an advertising agency in Newcastle.

:44:12.:44:13.

One of its current clients hs Glasgow Rangers Football Cltb.

:44:14.:44:17.

What advice would they give to another set of struggling blues

:44:18.:44:20.

This is not about logos or strap lines, this is about things that

:44:21.:44:25.

I think Boris Johnson in London is doing a very good job of behng

:44:26.:44:32.

He appeals to people and he connects to the people in that

:44:33.:44:37.

I think finding a North`East spokesperson,

:44:38.:44:43.

a credible spokesperson, whether they come from the world of

:44:44.:44:45.

sport or media I am not surd, would be a really positive step forward.

:44:46.:44:49.

There are new brands to content with too.

:44:50.:44:53.

Ted voted Conservative for 40 years, but in 2010 he joined UKIP `nd

:44:54.:44:57.

in 2015 he will stand against the Tory MP in the general election

:44:58.:45:01.

Attracted by his new party, repelled by his old.

:45:02.:45:05.

I think that over the years, they have changed totally

:45:06.:45:07.

They are not in touch with people at all.

:45:08.:45:14.

Even going back to the 70s tnder Margaret Thatcher, many people did

:45:15.:45:19.

not like her, but at least she came from a working`class background

:45:20.:45:21.

Now you have a lot of multimillionaires who do not have

:45:22.:45:24.

a clue what is happening to Joe Public.

:45:25.:45:26.

There does not seem to be mtch sunshine on the horizon for the

:45:27.:45:29.

On the streets and even in their own club they seem a little snookered.

:45:30.:45:38.

Well let's talk about that now with my guests.

:45:39.:45:41.

I am also joined by the North East's newly elected member of the

:45:42.:45:43.

European Parliament, Jonathan Arnott from UKIP.

:45:44.:45:50.

David Skelton, you are obviously someone who wants to revive the

:45:51.:45:58.

boat. It is depressing to go to a conservative club and sea vhews like

:45:59.:46:04.

that. I believe that the politics in the North East is in flux at the

:46:05.:46:09.

moment. Firstly, the Labour vote is imploding. They got less thoughts in

:46:10.:46:17.

the North East, they have lost the hundred and 50,000 voters. Lany

:46:18.:46:28.

people are saying similar things. They said that Labour has t`ken

:46:29.:46:35.

their base for granted. A ntmber of people I speak to in the north`east

:46:36.:46:40.

say that Labour is not their party any more. The Liberal Democrat vote

:46:41.:46:54.

has also gone. I think therd is a strong opportunity for the

:46:55.:46:58.

Conservatives here. What cale across there is that people think that your

:46:59.:47:01.

party is out of touch with working people. The important point is not

:47:02.:47:08.

about personality, it is about using power to help working peopld. I

:47:09.:47:13.

think there is an opportunity here for the Conservatives that has not

:47:14.:47:17.

been around in recent decadds. They can use their power to help working

:47:18.:47:23.

people in the North East. Jonathan Arnott, the policies of UKIP have

:47:24.:47:33.

appealed to people but can xou replace the Conservatives? What we

:47:34.:47:45.

have done in the European and local elections is finished ahead of the

:47:46.:47:49.

Conservatives in most places. We took more votes than them across the

:47:50.:47:57.

north`east. It is astonishing. Can you beat them in a general dlection?

:47:58.:48:01.

Will people vote UKIP for government? We found that when

:48:02.:48:13.

people were choosing an MP... We have to do the best we can. The

:48:14.:48:18.

simple fact is that the est`blished parties are not listening to UKIP's

:48:19.:48:24.

message. They are not prepared to change or do anything about it.

:48:25.:48:30.

While they continue being arrogant and ignoring the needs and wishes of

:48:31.:48:35.

working`class voters they whll still find a problem with support. This is

:48:36.:48:45.

a problem for Labour as well. Some people have said that they have

:48:46.:48:48.

become the party of the middle`class, not the working class.

:48:49.:48:56.

There is a truth in that. There is also some sense in the consdrvative

:48:57.:49:02.

renewal at the attempt to rdbuild support in the north. I think it

:49:03.:49:07.

will be a long time before people forget that Margaret Thatchdr used

:49:08.:49:11.

the police against the miners and start people in shipyards. But the

:49:12.:49:21.

decline of only happened after Margaret Thatcher left office. But

:49:22.:49:30.

when we needed help she would not help us and she kind her back on us.

:49:31.:49:36.

People will not forget that. But you will accept there is a challenge for

:49:37.:49:41.

Labour because working`class people are also moving away from your

:49:42.:49:47.

party. It is important that we engage with the people that we

:49:48.:49:55.

expect to support us. If Labour turns its back on working`class

:49:56.:50:05.

people it will be a problem. I do not think that we have done this. I

:50:06.:50:10.

work hard to service the nedds of my constituency. The Labour Party is

:50:11.:50:17.

resilient in the north`east because other members of Parliament... This

:50:18.:50:27.

is a 20 year decline. What hs the silver bullet? It has to be seen as

:50:28.:50:36.

the party of job creation and economic renewal. Labour had 13

:50:37.:50:44.

years in power and the problems were still there when they left hn 2 10.

:50:45.:50:49.

The Conservative Party has to be seen as the party that is about

:50:50.:50:55.

restoring the north`east. It is about ensuring their jobs are

:50:56.:51:00.

created. David Cameron would say that you are doing that now. They

:51:01.:51:08.

are doing it now. But they `re making a complete mess of it. Let us

:51:09.:51:20.

focus on the Conservatives. There is rather growth in the north`dast I

:51:21.:51:26.

think it is important that the seen as the party of economic growth and

:51:27.:51:36.

job creation. They should bd seen to devolve power to the north`dast The

:51:37.:51:45.

Conservatives should also t`ke part in education reform. Jonath`n

:51:46.:51:54.

Arnott, the new think it is odd that your party can appeal to

:51:55.:51:59.

working`class people with a wealthy in? But some of our members come

:52:00.:52:05.

from council estates. The whole point of UKIP is that the appeal to

:52:06.:52:12.

people from all different sorts of backgrounds. Because we had people

:52:13.:52:20.

at the top of our party who are from working class backgrounds they

:52:21.:52:21.

understand. Now to one

:52:22.:52:23.

of the most mouth`watering policies from the coalition `

:52:24.:52:25.

a pledge to introduce free school lunches for every child in hnfant

:52:26.:52:28.

school from September this xear A hot healthy meal, it is claimed,

:52:29.:52:30.

will give every child But it is proving quite

:52:31.:52:33.

a logistical challenge to ddliver. In Cumbria,

:52:34.:52:38.

the local authority delivers just That will rise to more

:52:39.:52:39.

than 15,000 in September. And despite of more than ?1 million

:52:40.:52:44.

from the Government, there `re still worries over exactly how sole

:52:45.:52:47.

of the meals will be providdd. 200 dinners a day are made ` day

:52:48.:52:50.

in Deaton at Robert Ferguson I like them because they ard cooked

:52:51.:52:56.

and very nice, because the dinner ladies are kind to you all the time

:52:57.:53:03.

and it means having a proper meal I like all the puddings,

:53:04.:53:09.

because they make them But in September,

:53:10.:53:14.

staff are expecting to deliver 00 daily dinners because the government

:53:15.:53:20.

wants all infant school children to Schools are under

:53:21.:53:22.

pressure to prepare. Like so many initiatives th`t come

:53:23.:53:28.

into schools, where head te`chers have to do a professional job of

:53:29.:53:35.

implementing them, this particular one does feel rushed and it does

:53:36.:53:38.

feel that not only schools but local authorities have had to hotfoot it

:53:39.:53:44.

to work out where to deploy the But in essence I think it is

:53:45.:53:47.

a good policy. Across the region,

:53:48.:53:56.

an estimated 36,000 more school children will be entitled to free

:53:57.:54:00.

school meals from this Septdmber. Stockton says they are expecting to

:54:01.:54:04.

provide 5,500 extra meals, Durham is planning for 5,000, and in Gateshead

:54:05.:54:09.

and Northumberland it is 2,000 each. But Cumbria faces

:54:10.:54:14.

the biggest challenge. At the moment,

:54:15.:54:19.

the county council delivers more That will rise to more

:54:20.:54:22.

than 15,000 this autumn. They have been given a Government

:54:23.:54:26.

grant of more than a million pounds to pay for new kitchen equipment

:54:27.:54:29.

and small alterations. But that will not pay

:54:30.:54:31.

for big dining room extensions or The Government has determindd

:54:32.:54:34.

the amount of money that Culbria I'm sympathetic to a lot of the

:54:35.:54:39.

schools, but I'm afraid that does We will try to work the schools

:54:40.:54:45.

as much as we can, and we will try to mitigate anything

:54:46.:54:49.

that is going on, but we do not have For Fairfield Primary School

:54:50.:54:53.

in Cockermouth, the autumn term At the moment,

:54:54.:54:56.

all pupils eat packed lunchds. But Nick Clegg's policy is

:54:57.:55:04.

for hot meals. We are going to have to havd meals

:55:05.:55:08.

transported in ` To work with some companies

:55:09.:55:11.

and schools that can producd hot school meals and have them

:55:12.:55:16.

transported to our site. Our long`term vision is that

:55:17.:55:18.

hopefully, at some point in time, we will have

:55:19.:55:21.

our own hot kitchen on`site. If there are problems,

:55:22.:55:26.

the message is not to stay silent. I have been talking to a lot

:55:27.:55:30.

of schools and most Those who have had difficult issues,

:55:31.:55:33.

we have managed to find solttions In some cases,

:55:34.:55:37.

there is a financial issue and it is just a case of thd county

:55:38.:55:40.

council approaching the Govdrnment and saying that this has become

:55:41.:55:44.

difficult for us and I'm 100 percent A few heads

:55:45.:55:47.

in Cumbria doubt the value of the free meal policy, but they are

:55:48.:55:50.

less confident about the tilescale. Moving

:55:51.:55:53.

from party conference announcement to plates on tables in under

:55:54.:55:54.

a year is proving a tall order. Nick Brown, I know we have talked

:55:55.:56:11.

about this. The coalition h`s made a pledge and is delivering it. It is

:56:12.:56:20.

impressive, isn't it? It was labour who first proposed the schele. David

:56:21.:56:27.

Cameron has reintroduced wh`t Labour piloted. I think it is a good idea.

:56:28.:56:33.

They made a political agreelent first and then looked at thd

:56:34.:56:39.

practical consequences and realise that some of the schools cotld not

:56:40.:56:44.

do it. These problems need to be sorted out. David Skelton, hs this

:56:45.:56:52.

the kind of thing that will broaden coalition appeal or is it ghving

:56:53.:56:56.

free food to people who can afford it with Mac it is an excelldnt

:56:57.:57:13.

policy. Having a hot meal hdlps educational performance. Thdre have

:57:14.:57:17.

been studies that showed thhs is the case. But people from deprived areas

:57:18.:57:28.

get free meals anyway. That is not the point. It is saving pardnts

:57:29.:57:36.

money. But you talk about the severity and cutting public spending

:57:37.:57:43.

but you are giving free meals to children whose parents can `fford

:57:44.:57:52.

it. This is an important policy to improve educational attainmdnt. It

:57:53.:58:03.

is focused... But it is being rushed through. I don't think it is being

:58:04.:58:11.

rushed through. Idea of nothce was given. It is a very progressive

:58:12.:58:20.

policy that I think everyond should get the hind. But money was spent on

:58:21.:58:31.

free schools when it could have been given to build kitchens. Is it not a

:58:32.:58:44.

good idea? The argument is nutrition. The evidence that is

:58:45.:58:48.

available to the government is that young people perform better with a

:58:49.:58:54.

hot meal inside of them rather than a pact lunch. I think it is a good

:58:55.:59:02.

argument for continuing the policy. Now, a look at what else has been

:59:03.:59:04.

going on this week ` including the first ever lo`n

:59:05.:59:07.

from a local council to the NHS With that and the rest of the news,

:59:08.:59:10.

here is Mark Denten. Firms bidding to run the

:59:11.:59:16.

East Coast Main Line are behng urged to put on direct trains

:59:17.:59:19.

from Middlesbrough to London. Research by Tees Valley Unlhmited

:59:20.:59:21.

claims it would be worth ne`rly ?50 million a year to

:59:22.:59:24.

the region?s economy. Northumbria Country Council is to

:59:25.:59:27.

make a loan of ?114 million to Northumbria Health Care will use

:59:28.:59:30.

the money to end its PFI contract The Trust says the move will

:59:31.:59:34.

save around ?3.5 million a xear The Prime Minister says cre`ting

:59:35.:59:42.

more jobs in the North East is the Shockingly,

:59:43.:59:45.

one in three children in thd North Significantly, two out of three

:59:46.:59:52.

young people who are living in households now. And finally your MPs

:59:53.:00:04.

will get a chance to put thdir own bills forward to the Commons, after

:00:05.:00:09.

coming eighth and eleventh hn the But there is no guarantee they

:00:10.:00:13.

will get debated in the Comlons And just time to fit in one more

:00:14.:00:23.

from a boisterous Question Time Labour's Ronnie Campbell was

:00:24.:00:26.

in trouble with the Speaker after interrupting the

:00:27.:00:29.

Prime Minister one time too many. That is what is happening,

:00:30.:00:32.

but above all... Mr Campbell,

:00:33.:00:34.

when you are eating curry...order! When you are eating curry in the

:00:35.:00:36.

Kennington Tandoori you do not yell across the restaurant, so do not

:00:37.:00:39.

yell across the floor of thhs house! Ronnie Campbell getting a thcking,

:00:40.:00:43.

or should that be a tikka`ing, off. Anyway, sounds like he might

:00:44.:00:51.

get poppadoms for life. We are back, and just as sphcy,

:00:52.:00:54.

on BBC One next Sunday. For now, do follow me on Twhtter

:00:55.:00:57.

and enjoy the football. It is back to Andrew for thd rest

:00:58.:01:00.

of this week's programme. There are big changes afoot

:01:01.:01:12.

in the EU following last month's European elections,

:01:13.:01:15.

not least who'll get the top job But

:01:16.:01:17.

behind the scenes the parties have also been jockeying for position as

:01:18.:01:21.

they try to form the big groups that And UKIP seems to have been

:01:22.:01:24.

struggling to keep its influence Here's Adam to explain

:01:25.:01:28.

how it all works. If you want your party to be a big

:01:29.:01:41.

cheese in the European Parliament, you need to form a political group.

:01:42.:01:45.

By doing this, the party gets more money, more positions on committees

:01:46.:01:49.

and even more speaking rights in the chamber. But the parliament's rules

:01:50.:01:56.

are strict. And to form a group you need a group of 25 MPs from at least

:01:57.:02:00.

seven different countries. For UKIP, the number of MEPs will not be a

:02:01.:02:04.

problem because they already have 24 of their own, but the different

:02:05.:02:09.

nationalities are more of a challenge. Nigel Farage was not

:02:10.:02:13.

helped by the Tories stealing - stealing his former Danish and

:02:14.:02:18.

Finnish allies, and the pen pinching his Italian charms. Nigel needs a

:02:19.:02:26.

new charm and fast. He has already signed up Lithuania's order and

:02:27.:02:29.

justice, a free citizen from Prague, and the Dutchman from the reformed

:02:30.:02:35.

political party. The big signing was the 17 members of the Italian Beppe

:02:36.:02:43.

Griego's 5-star movement, but it leaves UKIP short of two more

:02:44.:02:46.

international powers, and with the clock ticking, it looks like his

:02:47.:02:50.

hopes resting on the Swedish Democrats and the Polish new right

:02:51.:02:53.

Congress. They both make their decisions next week.

:02:54.:03:01.

What is the latest? UKIP have enough MEPs with their pals, but they need

:03:02.:03:06.

seven countries, as I understand it. They are not there yet. They are

:03:07.:03:11.

wrapped five countries and need another two. UKIP are being quite

:03:12.:03:15.

buoyant and say they will be meeting MEPs from five countries next week

:03:16.:03:19.

and are pretty confident they will get those countries, but as Adam was

:03:20.:03:24.

saying, the problem UKIP have had is that the Conservatives have nicked

:03:25.:03:33.

two of the parties. That is why they have been struggling, but they say

:03:34.:03:35.

they are confident they will do it. Meanwhile, the Tories new best

:03:36.:03:40.

friends are the German Eurosceptic party, which has put Mrs Merkel s

:03:41.:03:46.

nose out of joint, but we don't quite know whether she really cares

:03:47.:03:52.

or not. I think Cameron has played his hand badly since he committed to

:03:53.:03:58.

pulling out of the EBP. And he should be in there with Angela

:03:59.:04:05.

Merkel and if he needs to make a major renegotiation, he needs to

:04:06.:04:11.

have the Germans onside. Instead there is a breakaway party and its

:04:12.:04:16.

like supporting UKIP. His party are supporting her worst enemy. It

:04:17.:04:22.

certainly causing him a lot of problems, and undermines his

:04:23.:04:24.

negotiating position, but isn't there an honesty that the

:04:25.:04:31.

centre-right group is explicitly Federalist, and the Tories are

:04:32.:04:35.

anything but, so they came out, and Labour are in the Socialist group,

:04:36.:04:39.

which is explicitly Federalist, and they are not Federalist either. If

:04:40.:04:44.

you want support and influence in Europe, you have to trade, and he

:04:45.:04:48.

hasn't done this well. The whole business with who will be the next

:04:49.:04:54.

president, he needs Angela Merkel's support. Without that, it won't

:04:55.:04:59.

happen. He should have been trading behind-the-scenes, but he has

:05:00.:05:06.

exposed himself in public, and if he doesn't win it looks uncertain, and

:05:07.:05:09.

he will be in a position where he has to go back to his own party and

:05:10.:05:12.

say they are not getting anywhere. That is dangerous and takes us

:05:13.:05:16.

closer to the Exeter, which I don't think would want. The danger for Mr

:05:17.:05:23.

Cameron is if it is the president of the commission, he will save you

:05:24.:05:28.

cannot stop a federalist becoming head of the European commission

:05:29.:05:31.

what chance do you have of repatriating lots of powers back to

:05:32.:05:37.

London. There are lots of Tory MPs dying to make the argument. My hunch

:05:38.:05:42.

is that he won't make it. There are too many countries opposed to his

:05:43.:05:46.

presidency and even the country notionally in favour of it, Germany,

:05:47.:05:52.

is failing in youth -- enthusiasm. Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give

:05:53.:05:57.

in to the Brits this. Her own side once it as well, though some reason

:05:58.:06:04.

the German media says it. When she tried to reach out and said to look

:06:05.:06:08.

at the other candidates, she got such abuse on the right wing press

:06:09.:06:13.

from her own country and party she had to retreat. Janan is right that

:06:14.:06:23.

there is opposition to Juncker, but as long as Cameron turns it into an

:06:24.:06:29.

argument about Britain and Europe, he will strengthen the hand of

:06:30.:06:35.

Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks Juncker is inappropriate. She did

:06:36.:06:40.

not like the process, which was a power grab by the European

:06:41.:06:43.

Parliament, but when David Cameron went to the council and said that if

:06:44.:06:47.

I don't get my way, we could leave the EU, that led to the backlash,

:06:48.:06:54.

most significantly from the SPD in Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only

:06:55.:06:58.

David Cameron had made the argument that Juncker is bad for Europe, then

:06:59.:07:01.

he would have found his natural allies would have felt more

:07:02.:07:06.

comfortable following behind. Enough Europe. I want to show you a

:07:07.:07:14.

picture. See what you think of this. When I saw that picture, I thought

:07:15.:07:18.

it was so ludicrous that it had to have been photo shop. Discuss. He is

:07:19.:07:24.

holding it with a certain disdain, looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous

:07:25.:07:30.

picture for Ed Miliband. His strength is authenticity, sincerity

:07:31.:07:35.

and cleverness. And he blows all of that. He was the one who took on

:07:36.:07:38.

Murdoch, very bravely and dangerously, and one, really. Now

:07:39.:07:43.

there he is supporting Murdoch's son. It's a big mistake, not just in

:07:44.:07:47.

Liverpool, where obviously they are particularly incensed. And then he

:07:48.:07:55.

apologises. Sort of apologises and understands why Liverpool feels

:07:56.:07:59.

upset. But it is a fundamental error and I hope he learns from this, that

:08:00.:08:03.

he must absolutely stay true to himself. That's all he's got going

:08:04.:08:08.

for him. Who do we blame? His advisers or himself? In the end

:08:09.:08:16.

himself. Nobody forced him to do it. On this one, he called it wrong

:08:17.:08:23.

It's a sign of the rather the bridal state of the Labour Party is that

:08:24.:08:30.

his candidates were vocal in attacking him doing this. It's a

:08:31.:08:38.

sign of how readable Ed Miliband is at Parliamentary level. I don't

:08:39.:08:41.

think you should have apologised. The mistake he made was associating

:08:42.:08:50.

himself with that newspaper. The mistake was the prior three years

:08:51.:08:55.

when he went too far as portraying the Murdoch empire beyond the pale.

:08:56.:09:00.

He made a case against phone hacking and offences in that regard without

:09:01.:09:05.

going as far as he did with the rhetoric. To do that, and then pose

:09:06.:09:09.

with the Sun newspaper, the juxtaposition is what did for him,

:09:10.:09:12.

not the mere fact of posing with it. Maybe he did not know what he was

:09:13.:09:18.

doing because we were told he doesn't read the British

:09:19.:09:21.

newspapers. It was football, and he has posed with the Sun newspaper

:09:22.:09:26.

before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg posed as well. But with the Sun

:09:27.:09:30.

newspaper and football, you tread carefully. That was the mistake You

:09:31.:09:34.

get the impression from the picture that he looks so uncomfortable that

:09:35.:09:38.

you wonder whether there was a full process of consultation that went on

:09:39.:09:42.

within his media operation, within his political operation. Was he

:09:43.:09:45.

fully aware of what would happen question what he looks so incredibly

:09:46.:09:49.

uncomfortable. But at the end of the day, leaders have to take

:09:50.:09:53.

responsibility. It is cultural as well. That picture says, I am down

:09:54.:09:58.

there with the football blokes and you think, you are not. That is not

:09:59.:10:02.

what people will vote for. Be yourself and don't pretend to be

:10:03.:10:05.

something else because it never works. But the polls suggest that

:10:06.:10:10.

the British voters don't yet see Ed Miliband as prime ministerial. The

:10:11.:10:15.

worst thing you can then do is get involved in stunts that are more

:10:16.:10:19.

likely to reinforce that idea than counter it. There was a precedent

:10:20.:10:23.

for it in the last parliament which was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign

:10:24.:10:30.

a populist touch. He did it by telling the contents of his iPod.

:10:31.:10:35.

The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred because he was trying too hard. Not

:10:36.:10:40.

uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all the other leaders have done it. At

:10:41.:10:44.

the moment he more vulnerable. Yes, and he is less popular than his

:10:45.:10:49.

party. Labour has quite a popular brand, in a resilient way, in a way

:10:50.:10:52.

they don't with the Tories, yet their leader is a personal problem.

:10:53.:10:57.

The pressure is on him to do stunts like this. Will there be a shadow

:10:58.:11:03.

cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to get the cabinet reshuffle out of the

:11:04.:11:06.

way first, and that might come next week, maybe by the time of the

:11:07.:11:10.

summer recess, but the first thing that the prime Minister do is work

:11:11.:11:13.

out who is the UK candidate for the European Commissioner. Is it not the

:11:14.:11:20.

case probably that Ed Balls is becoming semi-detached from the Ed

:11:21.:11:24.

Miliband project? I don't think entirely. Nothing gets agreed

:11:25.:11:28.

without both of the end are green. Ed Balls is controversial. He has

:11:29.:11:31.

great pluses and minuses and is a big figure. Labour doesn't have that

:11:32.:11:36.

many big figures. It's quite hard to think who would be a heavy hitter as

:11:37.:11:41.

a possible Chancellor. He is a convincing chancellor to the future,

:11:42.:11:46.

Love him. He has the heft -- love him or hate him. Any possibility Ed

:11:47.:11:51.

Balls could be moved as shadow chancellor? The timing is convenient

:11:52.:11:56.

because the Scottish referendum ends in the autumn and Alistair Darling

:11:57.:11:59.

becomes a free man, win or lose I don't think Ed Balls will be removed

:12:00.:12:04.

because moving him would be an admission that everything the Labour

:12:05.:12:06.

Party said about the economy to the preceding four years has been a

:12:07.:12:10.

mistake. And you can't do that nine months before a general election.

:12:11.:12:15.

You invite ridicule. But relations between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are

:12:16.:12:18.

not great at the moment. The Ed Miliband team are very, very

:12:19.:12:22.

suspicious of this new love in between Ed Balls and Peter

:12:23.:12:26.

Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say that he spotted the Ed Balls talents

:12:27.:12:30.

in the original place and appointed him to the Gordon Brown team after

:12:31.:12:36.

the disaster of 1992. But things obviously went awry, and now Ed

:12:37.:12:40.

Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue Rappaport, and that is with enormous

:12:41.:12:45.

suspicion -- they have a new Rappaport. With good reason because

:12:46.:12:50.

it's about policy. It's about the attitude towards business. Should

:12:51.:12:52.

they be out there saying they will get the tax dodgers, Starbucks,

:12:53.:12:58.

Vodafone, are we going to take on business in a big way? In a way that

:12:59.:13:03.

Ed Miliband has quite bravely said. On the other hand, Ed Balls and

:13:04.:13:06.

Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on, we only won in 1997 by being

:13:07.:13:10.

business friendly. Sorry to rush you. We are running out of time

:13:11.:13:12.

The Daily Politics will be back every day this week at midday,

:13:13.:13:16.

and I'll be back here next Sunday when I'll be joined

:13:17.:13:19.

by the shadow work and pensions secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember

:13:20.:13:22.

if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:23.:13:54.

Magnificent. The power base of medieval England.

:13:55.:13:59.

Charles' ceiling was a piece of breathtaking arrogance.

:14:00.:14:05.

You get a sense of the people who made the palaces.

:14:06.:14:13.

as I unlock the secrets of Britain's great palaces.

:14:14.:14:17.

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