28/09/2014 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


28/09/2014

Andrew Neil and Richard Moss with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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Transcript


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Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,

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live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.

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There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected

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He joins us live from his constituency, where he has

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It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he

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arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.

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On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned

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RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq

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A senior northern Tory gives his verdict on the threat from TKIP

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And a new property tax to r`ise billions for the NHS ` but `re

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In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those

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priced out are choosing to move away.

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And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,

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who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.

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Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

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And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.

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At the current rate of Tory resignations,

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Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote

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address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.

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It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP

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defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and

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Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.

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Here's what the Prime Minister had to say

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These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and

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rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you

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want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain

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that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a

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Conservative government after the next election.

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And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.

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Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative

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colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping

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faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You

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heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was

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dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have

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increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour

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managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under

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Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my

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words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut

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immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to

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the community, particularly over house-building. The government has

:03:46.:03:48.

broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my

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voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to

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UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency

:04:01.:04:04.

chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and

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you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office

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telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the

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Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..

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So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham

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to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did

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you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually

:04:51.:04:55.

do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you

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cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a

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decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by

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UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a

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lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.

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That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this

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country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,

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quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.

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So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting

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UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number

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of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are

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winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned

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with the political class in Westminster, that they have not

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voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is

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inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the

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last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of

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life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.

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That is a key reason why I am moving.

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That is a key reason why I am about it. It is not credible now to

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pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to

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give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up

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for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the

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party be their MP. I am being open and

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honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my

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constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is

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the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and

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do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas

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Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for

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disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,

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the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was

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extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years

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ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit

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speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things

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there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at

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Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few

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ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just

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to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who

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believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,

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who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which

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has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,

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which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -

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after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David

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Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would

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you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP

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policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with

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immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will

:10:09.:10:13.

look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to

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restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How

:10:19.:10:31.

serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,

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destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is

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beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen

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eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing

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like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.

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There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis

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writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the

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first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used

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to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic

:11:06.:11:11.

in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some

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of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.

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There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the

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media problem of the general election which they cannot win if

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UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in

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many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does

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it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would

:11:36.:11:38.

it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics

:11:39.:11:44.

to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the

:11:45.:11:49.

Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably

:11:50.:11:53.

lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising

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them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It

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is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I

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was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the

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TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.

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But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to

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step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what

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he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in

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the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that

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we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they

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say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,

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Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this

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is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able

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to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly

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list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,

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this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.

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To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative

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The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative

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Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -

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that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier

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There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,

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and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to

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the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of

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Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge

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they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.

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Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of

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pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories

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run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten

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councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more

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ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is

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getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing

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seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be

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stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the

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policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU

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Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,

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39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...

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It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said

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were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while

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treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a

:15:23.:15:28.

Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative

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councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the

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general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are

:15:38.:15:43.

opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left

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the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the

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Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but

:15:56.:16:01.

what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my

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residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was

:16:11.:16:14.

happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%

:16:15.:16:21.

think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with

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31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing

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councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an

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issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a

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way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is

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almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the

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party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey

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thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have

:17:03.:17:08.

not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for

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difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must

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be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be

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specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote

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UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are

:17:31.:17:34.

disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,

:17:35.:17:38.

come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just

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eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and

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local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem

:17:49.:17:54.

the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former

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Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.

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Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't

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trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They

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believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and

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they are right. They said before they defected that people should

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vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is

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right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this

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is the point, the people should decide. However a future government

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decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who

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decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough

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powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come

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out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.

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The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron

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won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to

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give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote

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to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and

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be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in

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advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the

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rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take

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place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just

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now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that

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choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.

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Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave

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the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but

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again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want

:20:07.:20:12.

to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before

:20:13.:20:17.

they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is

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Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will

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not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I

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think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be

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scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,

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didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign

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Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first

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reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..

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Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26

:21:00.:21:03.

years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.

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Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?

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We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve

:21:18.:21:20.

things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider

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negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative

:21:28.:21:34.

promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to

:21:35.:21:48.

keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,

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you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000

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in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that

:22:13.:22:19.

under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the

:22:20.:22:24.

country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?

:22:25.:22:29.

Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?

:22:30.:22:35.

coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened

:22:36.:22:40.

under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we

:22:41.:22:45.

would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on

:22:46.:22:51.

immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.

:22:52.:22:57.

Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in

:22:58.:23:01.

2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP

:23:02.:23:06.

now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in

:23:07.:23:13.

this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought

:23:14.:23:17.

they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a

:23:18.:23:21.

thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of

:23:22.:23:26.

opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will

:23:27.:23:31.

be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are

:23:32.:23:35.

announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next

:23:36.:23:39.

Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather

:23:40.:23:45.

than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our

:23:46.:23:52.

survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact

:23:53.:23:59.

with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows

:24:00.:24:08.

one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want

:24:09.:24:14.

it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't

:24:15.:24:19.

work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are

:24:20.:24:25.

sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is

:24:26.:24:31.

further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards

:24:32.:24:35.

English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is

:24:36.:24:39.

unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we

:24:40.:24:43.

believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we

:24:44.:24:47.

have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK

:24:48.:24:52.

as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election

:24:53.:24:57.

result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,

:24:58.:25:03.

absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns

:25:04.:25:07.

night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals

:25:08.:25:13.

for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are

:25:14.:25:17.

agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There

:25:18.:25:24.

was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will

:25:25.:25:31.

produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for

:25:32.:25:35.

Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals

:25:36.:25:37.

for English votes for therefore bring forward proposals

:25:38.:27:24.

that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair

:27:25.:27:29.

to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you

:27:30.:27:34.

perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more

:27:35.:27:40.

tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a

:27:41.:27:46.

commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --

:27:47.:27:51.

but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is

:27:52.:27:59.

less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to

:28:00.:28:04.

Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot

:28:05.:28:08.

more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about

:28:09.:28:13.

taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you

:28:14.:28:19.

can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,

:28:20.:28:23.

there will be English votes for English laws after the election

:28:24.:28:27.

Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if

:28:28.:28:31.

there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce

:28:32.:28:35.

our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go

:28:36.:28:40.

away because I want to move on to some other matters.

:28:41.:28:46.

Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.

:28:47.:28:48.

Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq

:28:49.:28:51.

since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.

:28:52.:28:54.

When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers

:28:55.:29:02.

who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have

:29:03.:29:06.

already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to

:29:07.:29:11.

maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back

:29:12.:29:17.

from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else

:29:18.:29:21.

try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a

:29:22.:29:24.

full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role

:29:25.:29:29.

to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.

:29:30.:29:33.

And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,

:29:34.:29:37.

Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all

:29:38.:29:49.

that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been

:29:50.:29:53.

announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are

:29:54.:30:00.

sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of

:30:01.:30:02.

Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so

:30:03.:30:09.

little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some

:30:10.:30:14.

unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked

:30:15.:30:18.

for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it

:30:19.:30:22.

will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which

:30:23.:30:27.

can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the

:30:28.:30:31.

operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,

:30:32.:30:36.

Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our

:30:37.:30:40.

backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British

:30:41.:30:45.

government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic

:30:46.:30:49.

country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could

:30:50.:30:54.

have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political

:30:55.:30:59.

consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to

:31:00.:31:04.

send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with

:31:05.:31:06.

that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many

:31:07.:31:10.

other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards

:31:11.:31:17.

Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he

:31:18.:31:23.

condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any

:31:24.:31:25.

credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,

:31:26.:31:36.

they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we

:31:37.:31:39.

are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote

:31:40.:31:44.

last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the

:31:45.:31:48.

House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken

:31:49.:31:52.

care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of

:31:53.:31:55.

Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until

:31:56.:32:04.

recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq

:32:05.:32:09.

but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make

:32:10.:32:15.

sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our

:32:16.:32:23.

assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime

:32:24.:32:27.

Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there

:32:28.:32:33.

is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When

:32:34.:32:37.

we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by

:32:38.:32:40.

all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign

:32:41.:32:46.

policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority

:32:47.:32:49.

in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael

:32:50.:32:55.

Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he

:32:56.:33:01.

says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they

:33:02.:33:06.

are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery

:33:07.:33:10.

of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything

:33:11.:33:13.

does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United

:33:14.:33:18.

States and other countries are engaged in the action against

:33:19.:33:21.

targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing

:33:22.:33:27.

different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the

:33:28.:33:31.

House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have

:33:32.:33:35.

achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.

:33:36.:33:40.

The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported

:33:41.:33:44.

that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a

:33:45.:33:48.

democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a

:33:49.:33:51.

very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue

:33:52.:33:57.

a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not

:33:58.:34:02.

embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military

:34:03.:34:07.

experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone

:34:08.:34:12.

tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We

:34:13.:34:18.

have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike

:34:19.:34:22.

the last government. The national security council is chaired by the

:34:23.:34:26.

Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of

:34:27.:34:33.

the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the

:34:34.:34:38.

people who have the information now. So, you will know what British

:34:39.:34:43.

and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said

:34:44.:34:48.

there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come

:34:49.:34:52.

back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will

:34:53.:34:55.

have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,

:34:56.:35:00.

indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does

:35:01.:35:06.

that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot

:35:07.:35:13.

comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat

:35:14.:35:18.

to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't

:35:19.:35:24.

Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in

:35:25.:35:29.

the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take

:35:30.:35:32.

action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have

:35:33.:35:37.

not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought

:35:38.:35:43.

we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes

:35:44.:35:46.

on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal

:35:47.:35:53.

basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading

:35:54.:35:57.

of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that

:35:58.:36:02.

they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their

:36:03.:36:07.

action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes

:36:08.:36:13.

back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless it

:36:14.:36:20.

is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria

:36:21.:36:25.

in building up the political strength of the more moderate

:36:26.:36:31.

opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do

:36:32.:36:34.

not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing

:36:35.:36:41.

something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you

:36:42.:36:46.

not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure

:36:47.:36:51.

of the legal advice at the time and also we do not comment on the advice

:36:52.:36:55.

given to us by the Law officers Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That

:36:56.:37:00.

was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal

:37:01.:37:05.

advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal

:37:06.:37:10.

situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it

:37:11.:37:13.

that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme

:37:14.:37:23.

humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine

:37:24.:37:26.

strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal

:37:27.:37:28.

advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say

:37:29.:37:30.

goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20

:37:31.:37:35.

minutes, The Week Ahead. Hello

:37:36.:37:47.

and welcome to your local p`rt of the show ` live with all thd latest

:37:48.:37:49.

political news and debate as it Labour's big idea to save

:37:50.:37:52.

the NHS is to tax We'll find out if that's won

:37:53.:37:56.

the support of voters in a key Talking about that `

:37:57.:38:01.

and the rest of the party conference news ` including

:38:02.:38:06.

the latest crisis to engulf the Conservative party ` is the

:38:07.:38:08.

North East's newest Tory Pedr, Lord Callanan ` and the Labour MP

:38:09.:38:11.

for Middlesbrough We'll also be asking Ed Milhband and

:38:12.:38:13.

Nigel Farage the same questhon ` And let's start with the disarray

:38:14.:38:19.

in the Tory party after that ministerial resignation

:38:20.:38:28.

and defection to UKIP ` it lade for a pretty unpleasant start to Sunday

:38:29.:38:31.

for Conservatives in the north. Probably not the start of the

:38:32.:38:48.

conference that you wanted. . Now, we have had better start to the

:38:49.:38:53.

conference season. It is a distraction and should be treated as

:38:54.:38:59.

such. I hope that sometime through the week we will get onto the main

:39:00.:39:04.

issues, which is to show th`t we are dealing with the economy

:39:05.:39:09.

successfully, managing the country properly and get through thd next

:39:10.:39:15.

election and how we want to govern afterwords. One issue you whll have

:39:16.:39:22.

to deal with is UKIP. They had a good conference, more defections, to

:39:23.:39:28.

Conservative MPs have gone over How big a threat are they? They are big

:39:29.:39:37.

threat to every party. We whll see as the when the by`elections and get

:39:38.:39:42.

elected. They have no members of Parliament. When it comes to the

:39:43.:39:46.

general election, people will realise it is a straight choice

:39:47.:39:51.

tween whether they want Davhd Cameron are Ed Miliband as prime

:39:52.:39:56.

minister. Our system is first past the post. Nigel Farage says he is

:39:57.:40:04.

parking his stake on your l`wn. I you worried? I am not compl`cent.

:40:05.:40:11.

People are wanting change, they want better conductivity with thdir

:40:12.:40:15.

politicians, they want us to be listening more. That is right. It is

:40:16.:40:19.

our job in the Labour Party to respond more to the people who will

:40:20.:40:24.

be voting in the next gener`l election, to be responding to their

:40:25.:40:33.

concerns. Are they tapping hnto concerns? They are. In the Duropean

:40:34.:40:43.

elections, the local elections that we have just had, they had ` strong

:40:44.:40:50.

showing. It remains whether that will be translated into a gdneral

:40:51.:40:52.

election. Well of course perhaps

:40:53.:40:53.

the most significant development this week was the decision

:40:54.:40:55.

by MPs to back RAF air strikes The Penrith and the

:40:56.:40:58.

Border Conservative MP Rory Stewart, who chairs the defence select

:40:59.:41:01.

committee and visited Iraq last month, was among those who backed

:41:02.:41:04.

the Government's position ` so too did most of the region's

:41:05.:41:06.

Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs But three north east Labour MPs `

:41:07.:41:09.

Blyth's Ronnie Campbell, Jarrow's Stephen Hepburn

:41:10.:41:11.

and Easington's Grahame Morris Andy McDonald, there are three of

:41:12.:41:25.

your colleagues there. Do you have sympathy with the way they voted?

:41:26.:41:30.

Huge sympathy with the way they voted. You do not take thesd

:41:31.:41:35.

decisions lightly. I respect the decisions they made. I thought we

:41:36.:41:41.

need to act to repel a genocide People come here what is happening

:41:42.:41:46.

in Iraq now with what happened in 2003. We have psychopaths r`mpaging

:41:47.:41:55.

across Iraq killing Muslims, Christians, and we cannot stand by

:41:56.:42:00.

and allow that to happen. I think this has been the right response. It

:42:01.:42:05.

was not an easy response by any means, but I think it was the right

:42:06.:42:10.

one. Have you got any idea of what your constituents views are on this?

:42:11.:42:15.

The views you get are often via e`mail in these situations. I have

:42:16.:42:22.

got to say there wasn't the outcry that I was expecting. A lot of

:42:23.:42:28.

people were supporting the decision made. Speaking to people yesterday

:42:29.:42:32.

evening, they were supportive of the difficulties. Tony Blair dalaged his

:42:33.:42:43.

reputation by taking action and Iraq. His David Cameron dond the

:42:44.:42:48.

same? I listen to the debatd in the House of Commons and I listdn to

:42:49.:42:53.

passionate speeches on both sides, politics at its best. I respect

:42:54.:42:59.

those who voted against milhtary action, and I respect the f`ct that

:43:00.:43:07.

they help those views. We h`ve these distractions and defections and

:43:08.:43:11.

resignations, let's get back to the big issues. Our brave men and women

:43:12.:43:15.

are putting their lives on the line to defend our freedoms and to do

:43:16.:43:19.

vendor a right to exist peacefully, and that is a very grave matter We

:43:20.:43:26.

will see what happens with those developments.

:43:27.:43:27.

Now attention may be turning to the Conservative gathering in Bhrmingham

:43:28.:43:29.

but Labour's final conference before the General Election centred on what

:43:30.:43:32.

They plan to increase the NHS budget by ?2.5 billion a year,

:43:33.:43:36.

funded by a so`called "manshon tax" on the most expensive properties `

:43:37.:43:39.

as well as a levy on tobacco firms and new tax avoidance measures.

:43:40.:43:42.

So how has the idea gone down in the seats

:43:43.:43:45.

An affluent part of the reghon, helped by a Conservative MP, but not

:43:46.:44:07.

by much. His majority was 332 at the last election. As Mr Miliband's

:44:08.:44:16.

speech came through, our voters here getting his message? I am a GP. He

:44:17.:44:22.

said he would get a thousand more GPs. The local training schdme

:44:23.:44:27.

cannot fill all its vacancids, so I do not know

:44:28.:44:47.

down rapidly. The NHS is in crisis suddenly. It does not compute. I did

:44:48.:44:49.

not think he went through it clear enough. He topped a lot abott

:44:50.:45:00.

raising money for the NHS. `` he spoke a lot about. I do not believe

:45:01.:45:03.

it. One idea is a mansion t`x. very concerned about the NHS. Where

:45:04.:46:30.

I live, people are waiting tp to three weeks for a GP appointment.

:46:31.:46:37.

The idea we would have 8000 more GPs would make a massive differdnce The

:46:38.:46:43.

NHS will be the big issue at the next election. But we'll Labour

:46:44.:46:47.

Party Mac fans for financing it when Labour `` fans outside of its main

:46:48.:47:00.

voting core. People are beghnning to work out it is not simple. Ht is a

:47:01.:47:06.

basic principle of taxation in this country, those with the bro`dest

:47:07.:47:10.

shoulders make the biggest contribution. This is the w`y to do

:47:11.:47:17.

it. You are looking at part of it as being raised from tobacco companies.

:47:18.:47:23.

It is entirely right that you try and put the fun together to address

:47:24.:47:28.

the needs that are manifesthng themselves now with these shortages.

:47:29.:47:32.

It would be quicker and simpler if we said our health service needs

:47:33.:47:40.

more money. We will increasd tax on incomes to help it. It is dhfficult

:47:41.:47:44.

to make ends meet now. If you ask people who are struggling to pay

:47:45.:47:51.

income tax at the moment, there response would be that therd is a

:47:52.:47:55.

better way to do it. There `re concerns about the NHS and hts

:47:56.:48:05.

future. It has started to unravel. People's suspicions are right. There

:48:06.:48:09.

are not that many large houses. People would worry about how much

:48:10.:48:13.

the houses are worth. Peopld live in big houses but may not have much of

:48:14.:48:18.

an income. This would start off as a mansion tax and then move on to

:48:19.:48:25.

people in more modest sized houses. It would have to be to raisd any

:48:26.:48:30.

significant sums. They see `ll these measures together would raise ? .5

:48:31.:48:34.

billion. It sounds a lot, btt the health service budget has bden

:48:35.:48:42.

raised by much more than th`t already this year. In practhce it

:48:43.:48:52.

will not work. People would not argue that the figures are not

:48:53.:48:59.

backed up. We are demonstrating that we are recruiting more doctors, more

:49:00.:49:04.

nurses, more GPs into the hdalth service and we are already

:49:05.:49:08.

increasing the budget. But ht has to take its place eggs against all the

:49:09.:49:11.

other priorities, housing, education. People will seek to raise

:49:12.:49:26.

any significant sums of mondy, they will need to go after peopld in more

:49:27.:49:32.

modest sized homes. We need to get the economy growing again, we need

:49:33.:49:36.

people and businesses to pax more in taxation. If we are be elected, it

:49:37.:49:45.

will increase in future also. It is becoming clear ill will not work. I

:49:46.:49:55.

think it will work. `` it whll not. This lot came into power in 201 and

:49:56.:50:02.

said there would be no top`down changes. Every time we go into

:50:03.:50:06.

office we are having to put it right. We are getting same story

:50:07.:50:13.

now. You have to value all these homes, people will argue about it.

:50:14.:50:18.

If the Tories are so concerned that this plan will not work, whx will be

:50:19.:50:23.

not let our plans be submitted to the OBR? What are they scardd of

:50:24.:50:34.

West remarked the truth is xou have not set a plan yet post`election.

:50:35.:50:43.

Whatever money you put in now, is not enough. It will never bd enough

:50:44.:50:48.

of the National Health servhce. Every year of this government we

:50:49.:50:51.

have spent more on the National Health service. That will continue.

:50:52.:50:57.

It is about proper management, increasing efficiencies within the

:50:58.:51:06.

service. Labour started the privatisation process with opt outs.

:51:07.:51:13.

And we have continued with that and those proposals. The Labour Party

:51:14.:51:17.

want to scare people on this. Last year Andy Burnham had their

:51:18.:51:21.

campaign, 24`hour is to savd the National Health service. Of course

:51:22.:51:26.

that faces challenges, but we are dealing with them. We need to look

:51:27.:51:30.

at it in line with the other issues that need further public spdnding.

:51:31.:51:36.

Now, like buses, you wait ages for one Labour policy ` then

:51:37.:51:39.

The party revealed this week it intends to scrap

:51:40.:51:42.

Police Commissioners ` only two years after they were established.

:51:43.:51:45.

Labour says that would save ?50 million which could be put back

:51:46.:51:48.

But the Labour politicians who've been doing the job `

:51:49.:51:51.

like Northumbria's Vera Baird ` say they've achieved "a great ddal" She

:51:52.:51:54.

warned against going back to the days of unelected and

:51:55.:51:56.

Those of us who have gone into it have made the best of it. They will

:51:57.:52:17.

ask the police commissioners who are Labour to join in. The thred

:52:18.:52:21.

north`eastern once you have good relationships with their chhef

:52:22.:52:23.

constables have been involvdd. Well let's talk to David Clhff,

:52:24.:52:27.

a management consultant who's currently doing a research project

:52:28.:52:29.

at Sunderland University looking at I know you are at early stages with

:52:30.:52:40.

your studies. What are you hn cling so far? I think it is very darly to

:52:41.:52:44.

make any form of judgement on what is a fundamental change in how we

:52:45.:52:50.

police. We are working towards policing by consent. It was to

:52:51.:52:55.

achieve a re`connection with the public that the previous structures

:52:56.:53:00.

were felt not to properly address. Some concerns have been expressed

:53:01.:53:04.

about the expense concerned. Police and Crime Commissioner is in this

:53:05.:53:09.

country are not on top of the police hierarchy, they are not operational

:53:10.:53:14.

officers as the term refers to in other countries. It refers to the

:53:15.:53:19.

commissioning role. When we talk about savings around the rule, we

:53:20.:53:23.

have to look at the best value extracted from the oversight of a

:53:24.:53:33.

large constabulary and how we pay for staff across the police. Could

:53:34.:53:38.

you said that we could be qtite hasty and say get rid? Any system

:53:39.:53:45.

needs fine tuning. There has been a lot of antipathy towards policing

:53:46.:53:48.

crime commission is. We nevdr had that with police authorities. ``

:53:49.:54:00.

commissioners. We are seeing is the whole of the policing systel. It has

:54:01.:54:04.

been brought centrestage by these posts. The debate they are

:54:05.:54:09.

generating is healthy. The voter turnouts have been terrible for

:54:10.:54:14.

these. Is there evidence yet of public engagement in these roles? We

:54:15.:54:27.

had 16 to 22% turnout anywax. I think what we're dealing with is an

:54:28.:54:31.

awful lot of public and votdr in Ayrshire around crime and dhsorder

:54:32.:54:36.

issues. Primarily we did not vote for the previous structures and

:54:37.:54:40.

their aspects of private service that we do vote on. I think it is a

:54:41.:54:47.

very interesting phenomena hn terms of where we are going polithcally.

:54:48.:54:57.

`` in Ayrshire. We need to have notifications in a system that is

:54:58.:55:01.

evolving and we need to see how this pans out over a couple of tdrms

:55:02.:55:06.

Thank you very much. Do you have to accept that in terms of the public,

:55:07.:55:12.

it has been a bit of a dud? There was a low turnout in local dlections

:55:13.:55:20.

as well as elections were police commissioners. It is easy for me to

:55:21.:55:25.

say yes let's abolish them. That is not to say the role cannot be

:55:26.:55:29.

effective if the right person gets elected to it. I am a strong

:55:30.:55:35.

supporter of it. It is about time we introduce some democratic

:55:36.:55:37.

accountability into our polhce force. I think it will take time to

:55:38.:55:43.

bed in. If you get is a mothvator to, and it is going individtals and

:55:44.:55:47.

the role, I think they can lake a difference and engage with the

:55:48.:55:51.

public. I think it is rated to do it and I think we should continue with

:55:52.:55:59.

it. You have decided to scr`p them. It has not cut the public's

:56:00.:56:05.

imagination. The last turnott for the last police commissioner

:56:06.:56:16.

by`election was 10%. There light be a better way to do this thing. We

:56:17.:56:21.

can learn a lot of lessons from some of the excellent practice that we

:56:22.:56:25.

have seen over the last few years. In the north`east we have bden

:56:26.:56:28.

blessed by three excellent commissioners who have done a great

:56:29.:56:32.

job in engaging with the vi` `` public. When India was annotnced as

:56:33.:56:48.

being out of control. There is no suggestion that we turn back the

:56:49.:56:51.

clock and go back to police authorities. If you have got a

:56:52.:57:01.

secretary, all that expertise can be retained. We have got to be

:57:02.:57:05.

thoughtful how we extract the best practice. There has been a lot of

:57:06.:57:10.

heads knocking together which has been to the benefit to our

:57:11.:57:16.

communities. We were promisdd lots of independence and we got lots of

:57:17.:57:20.

party politicians. A few independents have been elected. As

:57:21.:57:26.

Andy said, at some of them `re doing good jobs in certain areas. They are

:57:27.:57:31.

increasing accountability, they do need to make themselves better

:57:32.:57:35.

known. As those roles develop and as individuals do different thhngs

:57:36.:57:40.

around the country, the perception on these positions will change over

:57:41.:57:41.

time. Now local councillors make

:57:42.:57:44.

the news for all sorts of rdasons ` disputes over planning, expdnses

:57:45.:57:47.

rows, spats over budgets etcetera. But this week two Newcastle

:57:48.:57:49.

councillors hit the headlinds Here's Fergus with that ` and the

:57:50.:57:51.

rest of the news ` in 60 seconds. Go North East and Stagecoach

:57:52.:58:01.

oppose the idea, but Labour said this week they would

:58:02.:58:03.

return control of bus services in The Barnett Formula,

:58:04.:58:06.

which allocates more governlent money to Scotland than to Northern

:58:07.:58:09.

England, needs to be urgently The North in particular,

:58:10.:58:11.

has been disadvantaged A Newcastle councillor has been

:58:12.:58:14.

shot with a rubber bullet dtring a David Stockdale was travellhng with

:58:15.:58:20.

fellow councillor Dipu Ahad who himself was arrested and held

:58:21.:58:24.

by Israeli Defence Forces. A tear gas canister landed

:58:25.:58:27.

about 1.5 metres in front of me I swerved to avoid it,

:58:28.:58:36.

but unfortunately I swerved into the line of fire of sole

:58:37.:58:38.

rubber bullets are being fired. And finally, he was chairman of Tyne

:58:39.:58:41.

Tees Television and Northumbrian Water, where he over saw thd

:58:42.:58:43.

building of the Kielder Resdrvoir. Sir Ralph Carr`Ellison who died

:58:44.:58:46.

this week aged 88, chaired Berwick Conservatives and was knighted for

:58:47.:58:48.

his services for the Tory p`rty And one last bit of news

:58:49.:58:58.

from the Lib Dems. They've selected

:58:59.:59:00.

the man they think can hold onto He's Josh Mason, deputy grotp leader

:59:01.:59:02.

on Redcar and Cleveland Council The party's current MP Ian

:59:03.:59:06.

Swales is standing down.Now The party's current MP Ian

:59:07.:59:09.

Swales is standing down. Now ` as you know ` we like to go to

:59:10.:59:11.

the very top to try and get answers Issues like the need to dual the

:59:12.:59:16.

length of the A1 which all parties agree is a priority ` but none

:59:17.:59:21.

so far have got round to dohng it. So when my colleague Mark Ddnten

:59:22.:59:24.

spoke to Ed Miliband this wdek, he asked the Labour leader

:59:25.:59:27.

for a commitment. I don't know if you drive up it the

:59:28.:59:29.

A1 north of Newcastle, is hopeless, it is slow, it is a single

:59:30.:59:33.

carriageway, will you dual ht? You need to also understand, we need

:59:34.:59:36.

to get the deficit down. Cynicism about politics is too

:59:37.:59:42.

great to make false promises. I do want to see that happen, I

:59:43.:59:47.

do understand the concerns `bout it. It is obviously something wd are

:59:48.:59:50.

looking at in our spending review. So what about UKIP leader

:59:51.:59:53.

Nigel Farage? I spoke to him ahead of

:59:54.:59:55.

his party's conference this week. Surely he'd commit himself ` after

:59:56.:59:57.

all the party's new North E`st Euro MP Jonathan Arnott said it would be

:59:58.:00:01.

worth the ?600 million bill. So was that, I asked,

:00:02.:00:07.

a UKIP commitment? No, it's not UKIP commitment,

:00:08.:00:09.

it's a UKIP opinion from a TKIP MEP And what he will need to do is

:00:10.:00:12.

convince Patrick O'Flynn, who's in charge of UKIP's economic policy,

:00:13.:00:17.

that that is the right thing to do. MPs and MEPs lobby and try

:00:18.:00:20.

and get it changed. I'm off to the Conservative

:00:21.:00:24.

conference ` wish me luck. Plenty on Look North

:00:25.:00:29.

and BBC local radio next wedk about that ` or of course you can

:00:30.:00:31.

follow me on my blog or on Twitter. And we'll be here ` same tile,

:00:32.:00:35.

same place ` next Sunday. For now it's back to Andrew

:00:36.:00:38.

for the rest of the show. My thanks to you both. Andrew, back

:00:39.:00:40.

to you. Here we are back in Birmingham with

:00:41.:01:01.

the Conservatives. The Tories thought all they had to do was come

:01:02.:01:05.

here, have a rally, a jamboree, and off they go to the races, or in

:01:06.:01:12.

their case the general election Two races later it hasn't quite worked

:01:13.:01:17.

out like that. Let's look at the state of this conference as it gets

:01:18.:01:23.

under way. On our panel we are joined by David Davis. You wrote an

:01:24.:01:29.

article in the Mail on Sunday this morning which was an Exocet at the

:01:30.:01:34.

heart of David Cameron's modernising strategy. It was designed to act as

:01:35.:01:41.

a lever. It was designed to cause trouble. No, we are in the running

:01:42.:01:46.

for the next general election. One of the characteristics of having a

:01:47.:01:51.

five year fixed term Parliaments is that the last year is about

:01:52.:01:55.

campaigning. It is important we beat Miliband, he would be a disastrous

:01:56.:02:02.

Prime Minister. You think the whole modernising strategy was a wrong

:02:03.:02:08.

turn, that is what the article said. Yes. Has that opened the door to

:02:09.:02:25.

UKIP? It has left a lot of people disillusioned with politics. What do

:02:26.:02:34.

you do to get it right? Who was listening to you?

:02:35.:02:53.

Frankly we need to take a more robust series of policies. How many

:02:54.:03:11.

more UKIP defections will there be? I do not think there will be any

:03:12.:03:20.

more. I would be very surprised I know Nigel Farage has a brilliant

:03:21.:03:24.

sense of timing, but I do not think he has got the resources to do that,

:03:25.:03:29.

namely, another Tory MP. So it could be another Labour one, maybe? I

:03:30.:03:34.

think an awful lot will hinge on what happens in Rochester. Because

:03:35.:03:42.

that is not a slam dunk. Clack and unfortunately looks like it will be

:03:43.:03:43.

a walkover for them. unfortunately looks like it will be

:03:44.:05:35.

for that. Despite some of the derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories

:05:36.:05:38.

are flat-lining in the sun decks, they have been there almost since

:05:39.:05:42.

the disastrous budget, the omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is

:05:43.:05:48.

still several points ahead, nothing seems to change? And David Cameron

:05:49.:05:53.

is now the leader in trouble. It is almost as if a week is a long time

:05:54.:05:57.

in politics. I thought the Labour and friends was Saab --

:05:58.:06:05.

sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial. You could've watched the top

:06:06.:06:10.

speeches without knowing that the borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and

:06:11.:06:15.

Syria were in question. I hope, because of Friday's discussion in

:06:16.:06:19.

Parliament, that this conference will raise its sights a bit, and we

:06:20.:06:23.

will have something in Cameron's speech, possibly that of George

:06:24.:06:28.

Osborne as well, which is a bit more global. People hoped UKIP had gone

:06:29.:06:32.

away during the summer, people at this conference, I mean, but it is

:06:33.:06:39.

back with a bang. They are still up at 15% in the polls, the Tories

:06:40.:06:44.

languishing on 32 - what is going to change? UKIP won 3% of the last

:06:45.:06:49.

election, I always thought they would get about 6%. If, by the turn

:06:50.:06:56.

of the year, they are still in double digits, I think at that point

:06:57.:07:01.

you can begin to wake of his party's chances of winning. I have

:07:02.:07:06.

had three people say to me so far, come election day, it will be fine,

:07:07.:07:11.

people will sober up and so on. It will be all right on the night is

:07:12.:07:14.

not a very good strategy, frankly. When they get past 5%, I start to

:07:15.:07:22.

bite into our 3-way marginal seats, with liberals, Labour and Tories,

:07:23.:07:26.

and we have got about 60 of those in the Midlands and the north, so it

:07:27.:07:31.

really is quite serious. And if I may steal one of David's lines, when

:07:32.:07:35.

you were interviewing Mark Reckless this morning, and was not talking

:07:36.:07:40.

about the EU referendum, he was talking about how he felt he had

:07:41.:07:44.

broken his pledges to the electorate because the Conservatives he said

:07:45.:07:48.

had failed on immigration and on the deficit, and those sort of

:07:49.:07:50.

bread-and-butter issues could be really potent on the doorstep, which

:07:51.:07:54.

means the Tories have got to run the kind of campaign they ran in Newark,

:07:55.:07:58.

which is a real centre ground, Reddan but a campaign, in which they

:07:59.:08:02.

would hope to get Liberal Democrat and Labour voters out to vote

:08:03.:08:07.

tactically against UKIP. I think today we have seen Cameron been

:08:08.:08:12.

pushed to the right. He has had to say, yes, I would leave Europe,

:08:13.:08:16.

which he has never said before. It is a huge stepping stone, a big

:08:17.:08:21.

difference. It takes the Tory party somewhere else. May be get them a

:08:22.:08:27.

lot of votes. But it has not so far. But I think it loses a lot of

:08:28.:08:33.

people. The industry organisations, for example. The prospect of going

:08:34.:08:37.

out of Europe, but is quite a fight for them. Is it not the lesson that

:08:38.:08:44.

you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do not need to, really. I agree, last

:08:45.:08:53.

week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold on, that is enough subs! I would not

:08:54.:09:03.

be crowing too much! But what I was going to say, he left out something

:09:04.:09:08.

incredibly important, the deficit. But how many people outside the M25

:09:09.:09:13.

are thinking about the deficit? One problem we face with Miliband is, he

:09:14.:09:18.

is good at politics and bad at economics, in a way. He comes up

:09:19.:09:23.

with bonkers policies which people love, price-fixing, things like

:09:24.:09:26.

that. Our problem will be about relevance on the doorstep. I do not

:09:27.:09:31.

think at the end of the day it will be about Europe. But was there not a

:09:32.:09:36.

moment of danger for you at the conference, that one area where

:09:37.:09:39.

Miliband is potentially vulnerable is not having credible team with

:09:40.:09:43.

business. Who turned up at the Labour conference, the head of

:09:44.:09:46.

Airbus, saying, we have got to stay in the European Union? The danger is

:09:47.:09:52.

that Europe allows the Labour Party to gain credibility with business.

:09:53.:10:00.

There is some truth in that. But we are in effectively the home

:10:01.:10:03.

straight, the last six months, and people will be fussing about prices

:10:04.:10:08.

and jobs. Very parochial. They will not be saying, what does the CBI

:10:09.:10:12.

think about this? It is, what is happening to me, in my town, in my

:10:13.:10:17.

factory, in my office. That is where the fight will be. Is it not the

:10:18.:10:26.

truth that if UKIP stays anywhere near around this level of support,

:10:27.:10:31.

it is impossible for the Tories to win an overall majority? I would

:10:32.:10:35.

say, if it is this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to

:10:36.:10:38.

finish as the biggest party, even in a hung Parliament. The Tories keep

:10:39.:10:43.

trying to win back UKIP voters with cold logic - witches it makes Ed

:10:44.:10:47.

Miliband becoming prime minister more likely. UKIP is basically a

:10:48.:10:53.

vessel phenomenon, coming from the gut, and David Cameron has never

:10:54.:10:57.

found the emotional pitch in his rhetoric to meet that. I wonder

:10:58.:11:00.

whether we will see that moron Wednesday. It is just not him. I

:11:01.:11:12.

hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I hope you're right that we do

:11:13.:11:17.

actually engage on emotion. So far with UKIP, our policy has been to

:11:18.:11:22.

insult them. It does not work. I know that from my constituency. We

:11:23.:11:26.

have to say to them, there is a wider Tory family, we understand you

:11:27.:11:30.

are patria, we understand you are worried about your family, and we do

:11:31.:11:35.

the same. What does it tell us about the state of the Tories, seven

:11:36.:11:38.

months from the election, the economy is going well, they are not

:11:39.:11:42.

that far behind Labour, and yet there is all sorts of leadership

:11:43.:11:47.

speculation? It is extraordinary. They are doing well, they are in

:11:48.:11:50.

with a shout. It depends. UKIP has to be kept below 9% of. -- below

:11:51.:12:02.

9%. I think David Cameron is one of the few who speaks human, actually

:12:03.:12:06.

talks quite well to people and does not look like a swivel-eyed loons.

:12:07.:12:10.

Whereas a lot of people behind him do. You look at Duncan Smith and

:12:11.:12:15.

Eric Pickles, they are all kind of driven, ideological men, with very

:12:16.:12:20.

right-wing policies. And nice people! Don't hold back! He is not

:12:21.:12:28.

the Addams family, he is basically quite human. I think a lot of people

:12:29.:12:33.

do not realise how ideological he is himself and how well he has led his

:12:34.:12:37.

party in the direction they all want to go. You go on about him being

:12:38.:12:41.

this metropolitan moderniser, I do not think that is what he is,

:12:42.:12:46.

really. It may not be visible from the guardian offices in the

:12:47.:12:51.

metropolis! Everybody where you are, Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser.

:12:52.:12:57.

And where you are, too. That is the nature of living in London. The

:12:58.:13:00.

trouble is, when these people get into Westminster, they are part of

:13:01.:13:04.

Westminster, too. If you could only win by being an outsider, the moment

:13:05.:13:09.

you get in, you are done for. All teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson

:13:10.:13:12.

to be the next leader? I do not think so! The point of my Exocet, or

:13:13.:13:22.

lever, this morning, is that I think this is winnable. If we are good

:13:23.:13:26.

Tories for the next six months, we can do this. It is by denying ground

:13:27.:13:31.

to UKIP, not giving in to them, not buckling. Denying ground. Thank you

:13:32.:13:37.

to our panel. They did all right today, but the normal. That is your

:13:38.:13:41.

lot for today. I am back tomorrow. We will have live coverage of George

:13:42.:13:46.

Osborne's speech to the conference. I am back next week in Glasgow for

:13:47.:13:50.

The Sunday Politics at the Labour conference. How could you miss

:13:51.:13:55.

that? Remember, if it is Sunday it is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye

:13:56.:14:24.

of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.

:14:25.:14:39.

I think I've overdone it with the pistachios

:14:40.:14:43.

and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late!

:14:44.:14:45.

of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.

:14:46.:14:57.

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