30/10/2016 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


30/10/2016

With guests Iain Duncan Smith, Chi Onwurah and Haras Rafiq of the Quilliam Foundation. Isabel Oakeshott, Steve Richards and Tim Shipman are on the political panel.


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Transcript


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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:34.:00:37.

Theresa May says she wants to help people who are

:00:38.:00:39.

"just about managing" - so should she reverse

:00:40.:00:42.

George Osborne's cuts to benefits that are supposed to help people

:00:43.:00:45.

Prominent London Imam Shakeel Begg is an extremist speaker,

:00:46.:00:52.

says the High Court, after claims made on this programme.

:00:53.:00:55.

So why is Mr Begg still being allowed to advise the Police?

:00:56.:01:00.

Hillary Clinton fights back over the FBI's renewed investigation

:01:01.:01:05.

into her use of a private email server - is this the boost

:01:06.:01:08.

Help chances of winning the White House?

:01:09.:01:17.

Here, good news for Nissan, but what about the rest

:01:18.:01:20.

Now it is just a question of building that runway with the

:01:21.:01:23.

political problems that lie ahead. And haunting the studio

:01:24.:01:30.

on this Halloween weekend, the most terrifying political

:01:31.:01:32.

panel in the business - Tim 'Ghost' Shipman,

:01:33.:01:34.

'Eerie' Isabel Oakeshott and First this morning, two

:01:35.:01:37.

new models of car to be built, securing 7,000 jobs at the car plant

:01:38.:01:46.

in Sunderland and a further 28, 00 The news from Nissan on Thursday

:01:47.:01:49.

was seized on by Leave campaigners as evidence that the British

:01:50.:01:55.

economy is in rude health This morning, the Business

:01:56.:01:58.

Secretary, Greg Clark, was asked what assurances were given

:01:59.:02:01.

to the Japanese firm's bosses Well, it's in no-one's the interest

:02:02.:02:05.

for there to be tariff barriers to the continent

:02:06.:02:11.

and vice versa. So, what I said is that our

:02:12.:02:17.

objective would be to ensure that we have continued access to the markets

:02:18.:02:20.

in Europe and vice versa, without tariffs and without

:02:21.:02:25.

bureaucratic impediments. That is how we will approach

:02:26.:02:29.

those negotiations. We're joined now from Newcastle

:02:30.:02:33.

by the Shadow Business Welcome to the programme. Labour has

:02:34.:02:46.

been a bit sceptical about this Nissan decision. Can we begin by

:02:47.:02:51.

making it clear just what a great achievement this is, above all for

:02:52.:02:56.

the workers of Sunderland who have some of the highest productivity in

:02:57.:03:01.

the world, have never been on strike for 30 years, and produce cars of

:03:02.:03:05.

incredible quality. This is their victory, isn't it? Andrew, you are

:03:06.:03:11.

absolutely right. The Nissan plant in Sunderland is among the most

:03:12.:03:14.

productive in the world. The workers of Nissan are amongst the most

:03:15.:03:19.

productive as well. And it's really a victory for them and for the trade

:03:20.:03:25.

unions and the business organisations, and everybody who

:03:26.:03:28.

campaigned to make sure that the government couldn't ignore their

:03:29.:03:34.

future. It's our future. I'm the MP for Newcastle. It makes a huge

:03:35.:03:39.

difference to the region. We are a region that still likes to make

:03:40.:03:43.

things that work. It is a huge part of our advanced manufacturing

:03:44.:03:48.

sector. So it's really something we welcome as well as the job security.

:03:49.:03:53.

I'm glad we have got that on the record from the Labour shadow

:03:54.:03:58.

business secretary. But your Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, claims

:03:59.:04:01.

the government is ignoring manufacturers and cares only about a

:04:02.:04:07.

small banking elite. In what way is safeguarding 30,000 industrial jobs

:04:08.:04:10.

in the North safeguarding a financial elite? As I said, we're

:04:11.:04:15.

really pleased that the campaigning by trade unions and the workforce,

:04:16.:04:19.

and business organisations, meant the government felt they couldn t

:04:20.:04:23.

ignore Nissan workers. Let's also be clear that we want that kind of job

:04:24.:04:27.

security for all of those working in manufacturing and in other sectors

:04:28.:04:32.

as well. And sweetheart deals for one company, no matter how important

:04:33.:04:37.

they are, that does not an industrial strategy make. Why'd you

:04:38.:04:42.

say it is a sweetheart deal? Greg Clark told the BBC this morning that

:04:43.:04:48.

what was assured to Nissan is an assurance he gives to the whole

:04:49.:04:52.

industrial sector? I was really pleased to see Greg Clark felt he

:04:53.:04:58.

had to say something, even though it's sad that we having our

:04:59.:05:03.

industrial strategy, you like, or our approach to Brexit delivered

:05:04.:05:05.

piecemeal to the media rather than to the British people and Nissan,

:05:06.:05:11.

actually. But he want published the letter. He said he has told us what

:05:12.:05:15.

is in the letter and that reassurances given on training, on

:05:16.:05:19.

science and on supporting the supply chain for the automated sector. You

:05:20.:05:24.

must be in favour all -- of all of that? We are in favour of an

:05:25.:05:29.

industrial strategy. Greg Clark unlike Sajid Javid, cannot say

:05:30.:05:37.

industrial strategy. I'm still puzzling to find out what it is you

:05:38.:05:43.

disagree with. Let me put the question. You said the assurances he

:05:44.:05:47.

has given to Nissan are available to the car manufacturing sector in

:05:48.:05:52.

general and indeed to industry in general. What is your problem with

:05:53.:05:58.

that? Two things. Let him publish the letter so we can see that, let

:05:59.:06:02.

him have the transparency he's pretending to offer. But also, we

:06:03.:06:08.

need an industrial strategy that values -- that is values based and

:06:09.:06:15.

joined. He talked about electric cars and supporting green cars. That

:06:16.:06:22.

was in regard to Nissan. At the same time the government has slashed

:06:23.:06:25.

support for other areas of green technology. So what is it? That is

:06:26.:06:30.

not to do with the Nissan deal. Labour implied at some stage there

:06:31.:06:36.

was some financial inducement, some secret bribes, that doesn't seem to

:06:37.:06:40.

be the case. You are not claiming that any more -- any more. Then you

:06:41.:06:45.

claimed it was a sweetheart deal for one company. That turns out not to

:06:46.:06:49.

be the case. What criticism are you left with on this Nissan deal? I

:06:50.:06:56.

would be really surprised if all that Nissan got was the reassurances

:06:57.:07:02.

that Greg Clark is shared with us. He didn't answer the question of

:07:03.:07:08.

what happens if we can't get continued tariff free access to the

:07:09.:07:11.

single market, if we are not within the single market or the Customs

:07:12.:07:16.

Union. Do you really think a negotiator like Nissan, who are very

:07:17.:07:21.

good at negotiating, they would have excepted making this significant

:07:22.:07:23.

investment without some further reassurances? Do you think there is

:07:24.:07:29.

some kind of financial bride and if so what is the evidence? I would

:07:30.:07:34.

like to see the letter published and I would also like to understand what

:07:35.:07:39.

would happen... There are 27 countries which need to agree with

:07:40.:07:44.

the deal we have from Brexit. What will Nissan, how will Nissan remain

:07:45.:07:48.

competitive? How will the automotive industry remain competitive? Greg

:07:49.:07:53.

Clark says he reassured them on that. But how will that be so if we

:07:54.:07:58.

do not get access? We haven't heard anything about that. He talks about

:07:59.:08:07.

reassurances given to Nissan. We need to make -- to know where we're

:08:08.:08:11.

going to make sure Brexit is in the interest of all workers, not only

:08:12.:08:14.

those who work for a Nissan and not only those who can get the attention

:08:15.:08:21.

of Greg Clark. He assured Nissan that Britain would remain a

:08:22.:08:24.

competitive place to do business. That was the main assurance he gave

:08:25.:08:29.

them. He would help with skills and infrastructure and all the rest

:08:30.:08:34.

Since you are -- intend to repeal the trade union laws that have made

:08:35.:08:37.

strikes in Britain largely a thing of the past, and you plan to raise

:08:38.:08:41.

corporation tax, you couldn't give Nissan the same assurance, could

:08:42.:08:46.

you? We could absolutely give Nissan the assurance that we will be, our

:08:47.:08:51.

vision of the future of the UK, is based on having a strong

:08:52.:08:55.

manufacturing sector. Repealing trade union laws? As we have seen at

:08:56.:09:05.

Nissan, the industrial sector is dependent on having highly trained,

:09:06.:09:13.

well skilled workers. -- highly skilled, well-trained. You don't

:09:14.:09:17.

have that by getting -- having an aggressive policy and trade union

:09:18.:09:22.

laws or by slashing corporation tax and not supporting manufacturing

:09:23.:09:26.

investment. Remember, the last government took away the

:09:27.:09:29.

Manufacturing allowances which supported Manufacturing and slashed

:09:30.:09:34.

corporation tax. That is their solution. It is a low tax, low skill

:09:35.:09:38.

economy they want. Thank you. Sorry I had to rush you.

:09:39.:09:42.

I'm grateful for you joining us I'm still struggling to see what is

:09:43.:09:53.

left of Labour's criticism? Yeah, except for this. This was a valid

:09:54.:09:57.

point she just made. What we know for sure is that Greg Clark could

:09:58.:10:01.

say to Nissan, my aim is to get tariff free deal. There is no way he

:10:02.:10:07.

could guarantee that. None of us know that. I don't think that was

:10:08.:10:11.

enough. I think clearly there was a more detailed package involving

:10:12.:10:18.

training and other things. He has acknowledged this, albeit we do not

:10:19.:10:22.

know the precise mechanism. What I think is interesting about this is

:10:23.:10:25.

if you reverse what happened this week, at a time when the government

:10:26.:10:29.

says Britain is open for business and it is going to have an

:10:30.:10:34.

industrial strategy, so far it is a bit vaguely defined. Nissan hadn't

:10:35.:10:38.

made this commitment. Imagine what would have happened? It is an

:10:39.:10:41.

impossible scenario. The government seems to me was obliged to make sure

:10:42.:10:48.

this didn't happen. Let's not forget Nissan has invested hundreds of

:10:49.:10:51.

millions in the north-east. It has been a huge success story. When I

:10:52.:10:56.

spoke to workers from Nissan, they were so proud because they went to

:10:57.:11:00.

Japan to teach the Japanese had to be more productive. The idea that

:11:01.:11:04.

Nissan was just going to walk away from this given its track record,

:11:05.:11:08.

its importance, wasn't really credible. The government had some

:11:09.:11:13.

bargaining chips. Absolutely, of course they weren't going to walk

:11:14.:11:17.

away. The majority of people in the area in which Nissan is braced -

:11:18.:11:21.

based, voted for Brexit. Nissan knows it is in a powerful position

:11:22.:11:27.

because it is an emotive sector Clearly the government didn't want

:11:28.:11:29.

to have some big showdown. I honestly don't think this is a

:11:30.:11:36.

smoking gun. The Labour Shadow minister really struggled to

:11:37.:11:39.

articulate what exactly she thinks the government is hiding. I think

:11:40.:11:42.

the reassurances were given were pretty anodyne, really. They were

:11:43.:11:47.

anodyne and general. And what Greg Clark was setting out was an

:11:48.:11:50.

objective and he made the right noises, and Nissan exercised its

:11:51.:11:54.

right to sabre rattle. It does have a history of doing that. The one

:11:55.:12:00.

thing that would now be clear given Greg Clark's performance this

:12:01.:12:04.

morning on the BBC, is that if we were to discover some kind of

:12:05.:12:06.

financial incentive directly linked to this investment, not more for

:12:07.:12:11.

skills or infrastructure, that is fine, but some direct financial

:12:12.:12:17.

investment, compensation for tariffs, which would be illegal

:12:18.:12:19.

under World Trade Organisation rules, what you might call a

:12:20.:12:25.

financial bride, the sect -- the business Secretary's position would

:12:26.:12:29.

be untenable? He would be in a very difficult position indeed. Just

:12:30.:12:32.

released the letter. There is nothing to hide. Put it out there.

:12:33.:12:36.

The most revealing thing is that people are getting wildly excited

:12:37.:12:41.

about the fact Greg Clark announced Britain's negotiating position would

:12:42.:12:45.

be that we would like tariff free trade with Europe. This is regarded

:12:46.:12:49.

as an insight into what this comment is doing and it says a great deal

:12:50.:12:52.

about how little we have been told in Parliament and the media about

:12:53.:12:58.

what they are up. Do you think it is exciting we are going for tariff

:12:59.:13:01.

free trade? We're easily excited these days. We don't know. This is

:13:02.:13:09.

where these things are at such a tentative phase. We don't know how

:13:10.:13:13.

the rest of the European Union is going to respond to Britain's

:13:14.:13:19.

negotiating hand. We know Britain once the best of everything, please.

:13:20.:13:24.

It is a starting point. But that is not how it is going to end up. We

:13:25.:13:29.

are getting wider than that. We have will have to see.

:13:30.:13:31.

Now, Universal Credit, a single payment made to welfare

:13:32.:13:33.

claimants that would roll together a plethora of benefits whilst

:13:34.:13:35.

encouraging people into work by making work pay.

:13:36.:13:38.

But have cuts to the flagship welfare scheme reduced work

:13:39.:13:40.

incentives and hit the incomes of the least well-off?

:13:41.:13:46.

Well, some of the government's own MPs think so, and,

:13:47.:13:48.

as Mark Lobel reports, want the cuts reversed.

:13:49.:13:54.

Theresa May says she wants a country that works

:13:55.:13:58.

for everyone, that's on the side of ordinary, working people.

:13:59.:14:02.

It means never writing off people who can work and consigning them

:14:03.:14:05.

to a life on benefits, but giving them the chance to go out

:14:06.:14:08.

and earn a living and to enjoy the dignity that comes

:14:09.:14:11.

But now some in her party are worried that the low earners

:14:12.:14:17.

will be hit by changes to Universal Credit benefit system

:14:18.:14:22.

originally set up to encourage more people into work.

:14:23.:14:24.

We also need to focus tax credits and Universal Credit

:14:25.:14:27.

Concern centred on the Government's decision in the July 2015 budget

:14:28.:14:33.

to find ?3 billion worth of savings from the Universal Credit bill.

:14:34.:14:42.

Conservative MP Heidi Allen is working on a campaign to get MPs

:14:43.:14:45.

in her party to urge the Prime Minister to think again.

:14:46.:14:53.

I want her to understand for herself what the outcomes might

:14:54.:14:56.

be if we press ahead with the Universal Credit,

:14:57.:14:58.

Do you think Theresa May, right now, understands what you understand

:14:59.:15:02.

To be fair, unless you really get into the detail,

:15:03.:15:05.

and I have through my work on the Work and Pensions

:15:06.:15:08.

Select Committee, I don't think anybody does.

:15:09.:15:09.

Independent economic analysts at the IFS agree with Heidi Alan

:15:10.:15:15.

that cuts to Universal Credit weaken incentives to work.

:15:16.:15:19.

One of the key parts of the Universal Credit system

:15:20.:15:22.

That is how much you can earn before your credit

:15:23.:15:25.

As the Government has sought to save money,

:15:26.:15:28.

both under the Coalition and now they Conservative Government,

:15:29.:15:31.

both under the Coalition and now the Conservative Government,

:15:32.:15:33.

that work allowance has been cut, time and time again.

:15:34.:15:35.

The biggest cuts happened in the summer budget of 2015.

:15:36.:15:38.

That basically reduces the amount of earnings you get to keep

:15:39.:15:40.

It weakens the incentive people have to move into work.

:15:41.:15:44.

What do changes to the Universal Credit system mean?

:15:45.:15:46.

The Resolution Foundation think tank has crunched the numbers.

:15:47.:15:49.

If you compare what would have happened before the July 2015 summer

:15:50.:15:53.

budget to what will happen by 2 20, even if you take into account gains

:15:54.:15:56.

in the National Living Wage and income tax cuts,

:15:57.:15:58.

recipients will be hit by annual deductions.

:15:59.:16:03.

Couples and parents would receive, on average, ?1000 less.

:16:04.:16:07.

A dual-earning couple with two children under four,

:16:08.:16:09.

with one partner working full-time on ?10.50 an hour and the other

:16:10.:16:12.

working part-time on the minimum wage for around 20

:16:13.:16:15.

hours a week, they would receive ?1800 less.

:16:16.:16:22.

Hit most by the changes would be a single parent

:16:23.:16:24.

with a child under four, working full-time

:16:25.:16:26.

I think, if I'm honest, it is unrealistic, given

:16:27.:16:40.

the economic climate, to expect everything to be reversed.

:16:41.:16:43.

What I would like to see is an increase in the work

:16:44.:16:49.

allowances to those people who will be hardest hit.

:16:50.:16:52.

That is single parents and second earners hoping to return to work,

:16:53.:16:55.

because they are the people we need to absolutely make

:16:56.:16:57.

The Sunday Politics understands that about 15 to 20 Conservative MPs

:16:58.:17:02.

are pushing for changes ahead of the Autumn Statement.

:17:03.:17:05.

A former cabinet minister told us that they believed further impact

:17:06.:17:08.

analysis should be done to find out if any mitigation measures

:17:09.:17:11.

Former Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith, an architect

:17:12.:17:18.

of the system, now says the cuts should be reversed.

:17:19.:17:22.

But his former department has told us that it has no plans to revisit

:17:23.:17:27.

the work allowance changes announced in the budget last year.

:17:28.:17:32.

What I would say to Heidi Allen and IDS, they got it right the first

:17:33.:17:35.

time and they should stick to the vote they cast last year

:17:36.:17:38.

because these reforms actually do make sense.

:17:39.:17:40.

What interests me is the fact we are trying to move people

:17:41.:17:43.

off welfare into work, we are raising the wages people

:17:44.:17:45.

earn by massively increasing the minimum wage and this

:17:46.:17:47.

People are coming off welfare and into work.

:17:48.:17:51.

Campaigners are pushing for savings to come from other areas to relieve

:17:52.:17:54.

The other thing we have to start looking at is the triple

:17:55.:18:00.

Financially it has been a great policy, and it was absolutely right

:18:01.:18:04.

that we lifted pensioners who were significantly behind,

:18:05.:18:06.

for many years, in terms of income levels, but they have

:18:07.:18:08.

I think it is time for us to look at that policy again,

:18:09.:18:14.

because is costing us an awful lot of money.

:18:15.:18:16.

With just over three weeks to wait until the Conservative leadership's

:18:17.:18:19.

new economic plan is unveiled in the Autumn Statement,

:18:20.:18:22.

its top team is under pressure from within its own ranks to use it

:18:23.:18:25.

And I'm joined now by former Work and Pensions Secretary,

:18:26.:18:35.

Welcome back to the programme. Theresa May said she is on the side

:18:36.:18:43.

of the just managing, the working poor. But they are about to be hit

:18:44.:18:48.

from all sides. Their modest living standards are going to be squeezed

:18:49.:18:52.

as inflation overtakes pay rises, they will be further squeezed

:18:53.:18:56.

because top-up benefits in work are frozen. Incentives to work are going

:18:57.:18:59.

to be reduced by the cuts in universal benefits. So much for

:19:00.:19:04.

being on the side of those just managing? Theresa was right to focus

:19:05.:19:09.

on this group. The definition has to be the bottom half, in economic

:19:10.:19:16.

terms, of the social structure. It doesn't look good for them? This is

:19:17.:19:20.

the point I am making, it is an opportunity to put some of this

:19:21.:19:23.

right. One of the reasons I resigned in March is because I felt the

:19:24.:19:26.

direction of travel we had been going in had been to take far too

:19:27.:19:30.

much money out of that group of people when there are other areas

:19:31.:19:34.

which, if you need to make some of those savings, you can. The key bit

:19:35.:19:38.

is that the group needs to be helped through into work and encouraged to

:19:39.:19:41.

stay in work. There was a report done with the IFS, when we were

:19:42.:19:45.

there, at Universal Credit. It said Universal Credit rolled out, as it

:19:46.:19:51.

should have been before the cuts, people would be much more likely to

:19:52.:19:55.

stay in work longer and earn more money. It is a net positive, but

:19:56.:19:59.

that is now called into question. Let's unpick some of the detail but

:20:00.:20:03.

first, do you accept the words of David Willets? It says on the basis

:20:04.:20:07.

of the things I read out to you that the just managing face a significant

:20:08.:20:14.

and painful cut in real terms if we continue on the way we are going. I

:20:15.:20:19.

do, in essence. That is the reason why I resigned. I felt Heidi raised

:20:20.:20:27.

that issue as well, that we got the balance wrong. It is right that

:20:28.:20:31.

pensioners get to a certain point, when they are on a level par, doing

:20:32.:20:35.

the right thing over five years Staying with that process has cost

:20:36.:20:40.

us ?18 billion extra this year, in total. It will go on costing another

:20:41.:20:48.

5 billion. Then there is the issue of tax allowances. I want to remind

:20:49.:20:53.

you and viewers what David Cameron told the Conservative conference in

:20:54.:21:00.

2009. If you are a single mother with two children, earning ?150 a

:21:01.:21:05.

week, the withdrawal of your benefits and the additional taxes

:21:06.:21:09.

that you pay me on that for every extra you earn, you keep just 4p.

:21:10.:21:16.

What kind of incentive is that? 30 years ago, this party won and

:21:17.:21:22.

election fighting against 98% tax rates for the Rex richest. I want us

:21:23.:21:32.

today to show even more anger about 96% tax rates for the very poorest

:21:33.:21:37.

in our country. Real anger, and effective rate of over 90%.

:21:38.:21:43.

Universal Credit reduces that. Some will still face, as they lose

:21:44.:21:47.

benefits and pay tax, a marginal rate of over 75%. That is still too

:21:48.:21:52.

high? Yes, it is the collision between those going into work at the

:21:53.:21:56.

moment they start paying tax. A racial Universal Credit is set at

:21:57.:22:01.

65%. You can call that the base marginal tax rate. 1.2 million will

:22:02.:22:07.

face 75%? That is the point about why the allowances are so important.

:22:08.:22:11.

The point about the allowances which viewers might not fully understand

:22:12.:22:14.

is that it was set, as part of Universal Credit, to allow you to

:22:15.:22:18.

get certain people, with certain difficulties, as they cross into

:22:19.:22:21.

work, to retain more benefit before it is tapered away as they go up in

:22:22.:22:28.

hours. A lone parent, who might have various issues, you want her to have

:22:29.:22:32.

a bigger incentive than a single person that does not have the same

:22:33.:22:36.

commitments. It is structured so that somebody who has difficulty

:22:37.:22:40.

going to work, they all have slightly different rates. What

:22:41.:22:42.

happened is that last year a decision was taken to reduce tax

:22:43.:22:46.

credits, and, on the back of that, to reduce allowances. I believe

:22:47.:22:49.

given everything that happened now, we need to restore that to the point

:22:50.:22:56.

where it helps those people crossing over. You say a decision was taken,

:22:57.:22:59.

it was a decision by the former Chancellor George Osborne in the

:23:00.:23:04.

summer budget. Other decisions were taken in successive Budgets to raise

:23:05.:23:08.

the Universal Credit budget, which resulted in the disincentive being

:23:09.:23:11.

higher than many people wanted. Do you accept that has been the

:23:12.:23:16.

consequence of his decisions? I was in the Government, we take

:23:17.:23:19.

collective responsibility. I argued this was not the right way to go,

:23:20.:23:23.

but when you are in you have to stay with it if you lose that argument.

:23:24.:23:26.

There was another attempt before the spending review last year to

:23:27.:23:29.

increase the taper, so the marginal rate would have gone up. I managed

:23:30.:23:35.

to stop that. I'm Sibley saying what we made as a decision last

:23:36.:23:38.

year, given the circumstances and given that the net effect of all of

:23:39.:23:44.

that, I think it is time for the Government to ask the question, if

:23:45.:23:47.

we are in this to help that group of people, Universal Credit is

:23:48.:23:51.

singularly the most powerful tool. One of the Argentine aid in the

:23:52.:23:54.

paper published on Thursday, we are set going on doing two more races of

:23:55.:24:00.

the tax threshold, taking more people out of tax. That has a

:24:01.:24:06.

diminishing effect on the bottom section. Only 25p in that tax rate

:24:07.:24:12.

will help any of those. Most of it goes to middle income? You and I

:24:13.:24:16.

will benefit more from that. With Universal Credit, every pound you

:24:17.:24:20.

put into that will go to the bottom five tenths. That is why I designed

:24:21.:24:24.

it like that. He pressed the button and immediately start to changed

:24:25.:24:28.

circumstances. Should the cuts in Universal Credit that Mr Osborne

:24:29.:24:32.

introduced, against your argument, should they be reversed? I believe

:24:33.:24:37.

so. I believe you can do it even if there is concern about spending I

:24:38.:24:41.

don't believe you need to go through with the continuing raise the tax

:24:42.:24:45.

threshold. Cost is dependent on inflation, but give or take. It is

:24:46.:24:53.

in the Tory manifesto? Has more than doubled. What is in the manifesto,

:24:54.:24:58.

and Lasse Prime Minister made this clear in conference, we want to

:24:59.:25:04.

improve the life chances of people. Today's announcement on the Green

:25:05.:25:07.

paper is what I wrote over the last two and a half years. Big changes

:25:08.:25:10.

necessary to how we deal with sickness benefit. That can now be

:25:11.:25:14.

done because of Universal Credit, because people can go back to work

:25:15.:25:18.

and it tapers away their benefits. It is the most powerful tool to sort

:25:19.:25:22.

our people that live in poverty Universal Credit. We need to make

:25:23.:25:27.

sure it lands positively. If Mr Osborne's cuts were reversed, what

:25:28.:25:30.

you and some of your backbench Tory colleagues want to do, how would

:25:31.:25:34.

that improve the incentives of the working poor, as they try to get on

:25:35.:25:41.

in life? They have to pay more tax, they lose some benefits. How would

:25:42.:25:47.

it improve it? Would many still face a 75% rate? The key question is

:25:48.:25:51.

first and foremost, as people move through income to the point where

:25:52.:25:56.

they are getting taxed, that group will be enormously benefited by the

:25:57.:25:59.

re-emergence of these allowances at the right level. That is what the

:26:00.:26:05.

IFS have said, that is what the Resolution Foundation are saying,

:26:06.:26:09.

and the Centre For Social Justice is saying. You have to get that group,

:26:10.:26:13.

because they are most likely to be drifting into poverty and less

:26:14.:26:17.

incomes are right. Would it help those who face a 75% margin? We

:26:18.:26:22.

don't face that. Exactly right. People much poorer than us do. I

:26:23.:26:27.

would love to get the marginal rate down to testify percent, and lower,.

:26:28.:26:36.

-- down to 65%. It is a balance of how you spend the money. I would

:26:37.:26:39.

prefer to do that rather than necessarily go ahead with threshold

:26:40.:26:47.

razors. I think the coronation of the marginal reduction of 65%,

:26:48.:26:52.

getting it down to 60%, plus more allowances, will allow Universal

:26:53.:26:55.

Credit to get to the group that is going to be, and the report written

:26:56.:26:59.

by the IFS and ourselves, it shows it is going to be the most dynamic

:27:00.:27:03.

and direct ability of a Government to be able to influence the way that

:27:04.:27:07.

people improve their incomes in the bottom five deciles. Would you take

:27:08.:27:14.

on extra work if you knew you were going to lose 75% of it? Even 6 %?

:27:15.:27:20.

This has been my argument all along. Universal Credit can help that

:27:21.:27:25.

enormously. One point that goes missing, 70% of the bottom five

:27:26.:27:30.

deciles will be on Universal Credit. Whatever change you make to

:27:31.:27:32.

Universal Credit has a dramatic and immediate effect I am arguing,

:27:33.:27:38.

genuinely, it is time to rethink this. The Prime Minister wants to

:27:39.:27:41.

make this a priority. I am completely with her on this. I think

:27:42.:27:45.

she made a really good start. To deliver this, we need to... You have

:27:46.:27:51.

a lot of work to do to deliver it. Because it is a manifesto

:27:52.:27:55.

commitment, or because they want to do it, stopping increasing the

:27:56.:28:00.

personal allowances are not acceptable, what about bringing to

:28:01.:28:03.

an end, by the end of the parliament, the pension triple lock

:28:04.:28:08.

that pensioners enjoy to improve and put more money to the working poor?

:28:09.:28:15.

What about that? Well, you are absolutely right that there is now

:28:16.:28:19.

the danger, I think, of a mess balance between the generations

:28:20.:28:22.

Quite rightly at the beginning, when we came in, we have a commitment as

:28:23.:28:26.

a Conservative Party in a manifesto to get pensions back onto earnings.

:28:27.:28:32.

It was moved to a triple lock that guaranteed a minimum. What about

:28:33.:28:37.

ending up now? I understand it is a promise through the Parliament, but

:28:38.:28:41.

after 2020? I am in favour of getting it back to innings and

:28:42.:28:45.

allowing it to rise at reasonable levels. Moving from earnings to the

:28:46.:28:50.

triple lock has cost ?18 billion this year. Here was a high, under

:28:51.:28:54.

pressure, as the Government was scratching around to pay more money

:28:55.:28:58.

out of working age areas, when the budget was almost out of control on

:28:59.:29:02.

the pension side. I'm in favour of helping pensioners, but now they are

:29:03.:29:05.

up to a reasonable level, at a steady rate, that can be afforded by

:29:06.:29:09.

Government, which takes the pressure off, working age people have to pay

:29:10.:29:14.

for that. In years to come, time to end the triple lock

:29:15.:29:25.

and use the savings to help these people we have been talking about?

:29:26.:29:29.

As part of a load of packages, yes. It would also help with the

:29:30.:29:31.

intergenerational fairness argument. Thank you for being with us.

:29:32.:29:34.

Now, a prominent London Imam called Shakeel Begg -

:29:35.:29:36.

who is Chief Imam the Lewisham Islamic Centre - is an extremist.

:29:37.:29:39.

That was the verdict of the judge in a libel action that Mr Begg took

:29:40.:29:43.

against the BBC, after we described him as an Islamic extremist

:29:44.:29:46.

Mr Begg had complained about a short segment in an interview in November

:29:47.:29:50.

2013 with Farooq Murad, the then head of the Muslim Council

:29:51.:29:53.

of Britain, an organisation which claims to represent British

:29:54.:29:55.

In that interview, we described Mr Begg as an extremist speaker

:29:56.:30:01.

who had hailed jihad is the greatest of deeds.

:30:02.:30:03.

From his base of the Lewisham Islamic Centre, Mr Begg has been

:30:04.:30:07.

involved in a number of community organisations, including

:30:08.:30:11.

the Police Independent Advisory Group in Lewisham,

:30:12.:30:13.

Lewisham Council's Advisory Council on Religious Education

:30:14.:30:18.

and as a volunteer chaplain at Lewisham Hospital.

:30:19.:30:21.

But in his judgment, Mr Justice Haddon-Cave called

:30:22.:30:26.

Mr Begg a Jekyll and Hyde character - a trusted figure in his local

:30:27.:30:29.

community, but when talking to predominantly Muslim audiences

:30:30.:30:33.

he shed the cloak of respectability and revealed the horns of extremism.

:30:34.:30:38.

The judge cited one speech made by Mr Begg at a rally

:30:39.:30:41.

outside Belmarsh Prisonm- the high security prison that houses

:30:42.:30:43.

terrorists - as particularly sinister.

:30:44.:30:47.

The judge said the imam was expressing admiration and praise

:30:48.:30:49.

Following Friday's judgment, the hospital trust have told us that

:30:50.:30:55.

Mr Begg's status as a voluntary chaplain has been terminated.

:30:56.:30:59.

We have been told by Lewisham Council he is no longer

:31:00.:31:03.

on their Religious Education Committee.

:31:04.:31:05.

The Metropolitan Police have confirmed that

:31:06.:31:07.

Mr Begg remains a member of their Independent Advisory Group

:31:08.:31:12.

in Lewisham, as well as the borough's faith group.

:31:13.:31:21.

I am joined by Haras Rafiq, chief executive of the Quilliam

:31:22.:31:25.

Foundation. Welcome to the programme. I have here in my hand a

:31:26.:31:33.

statement from the trustees of the Lewisham Islamic Centre. They reject

:31:34.:31:39.

the judge's ruling as fanciful and say they are unequivocal and

:31:40.:31:41.

unwavering in their support of Shakeel Begg as their head imam

:31:42.:31:47.

What do you make of that? To be honest, it doesn't surprise me. At

:31:48.:31:52.

the end of the day he is only the imam of that mosque because he

:31:53.:31:56.

belongs to the same theological fundamentalist views that the mosque

:31:57.:32:01.

would portray. If they were to say he was an extremist, they would be

:32:02.:32:06.

saying in fact that they have allowed extremist preaching and

:32:07.:32:09.

extremist theology within their walls. I think this is a very

:32:10.:32:15.

important decision and a very important judgment by the judge

:32:16.:32:22.

First of all, these people like to operate in a linear, under a veneer

:32:23.:32:26.

of respectability. When that veneer is taken away, there are a number of

:32:27.:32:31.

things that can happen. First of all, the BBC did very well to stand

:32:32.:32:35.

by their guns and say, we're not going to be intimidated by somebody

:32:36.:32:41.

who is threatening to taking -- to take us to court for potential

:32:42.:32:46.

libel. Many other media companies have done that in the past and

:32:47.:32:51.

people have capitulated. Also, this has exposed him. Legally now, here's

:32:52.:32:56.

some deal can be classified as an extremist preacher, somebody who

:32:57.:33:00.

promotes religious violence. I think the mosque really needs to take a

:33:01.:33:04.

step back and say, how we part of the problem that we are facing

:33:05.:33:08.

within society? Or are we going to be part of the solution? It really

:33:09.:33:16.

concerns me. The High Court judge says that Mr Begg's speeches were

:33:17.:33:21.

consistent with an extremist Salafist is the most worldview. What

:33:22.:33:29.

is Salafist is and how widespread is it in UK mosques? -- mosque. It

:33:30.:33:39.

comes from the Middle East. It is from Saudi Arabia. The enemy for

:33:40.:33:42.

them was the old colonial Ottoman Empire. There is the quiet Salafist

:33:43.:33:51.

to get some with their lives, lives outside society. There is a

:33:52.:33:53.

revolutionary who tries to convert other people to their worldview And

:33:54.:33:57.

then there is the Salafist jihad ease. People like Islamic State etc.

:33:58.:34:04.

We have seen of increased in recent decades because of money that has,

:34:05.:34:07.

growing from the Middle East. When that is mixed with a political

:34:08.:34:13.

ideology, it becomes potent. Do we have a political -- particular

:34:14.:34:17.

problem in Britain with this in our mosques? Absolutely. Without the

:34:18.:34:23.

theology that says hate the other, hate other Muslims, that

:34:24.:34:25.

excommunicate other people, that says it is OK to fight and is good

:34:26.:34:31.

to fight when you have got an enemy, we wouldn't really have a jihadi

:34:32.:34:34.

problem. Really that is something we have to tackle. The number of

:34:35.:34:42.

mosques and institutions supporting Salafist and Islam is has been on

:34:43.:34:47.

the increase. Do we have a problem with what the judge called Jekyll

:34:48.:34:52.

and Hyde characters who hide their extremism except when they are

:34:53.:34:58.

speaking to specific groups? Absolutely. One of the things we

:34:59.:35:03.

have focused on in the past, a number of hate preachers now in

:35:04.:35:07.

prison, people like Anjem Choudary, and everybody focused on them. But

:35:08.:35:11.

there is a range of people operating under that level. People who will

:35:12.:35:15.

show one face to the community because they actually need that for

:35:16.:35:20.

a respectability. They need that for a legitimacy. They need that to

:35:21.:35:24.

operate. When they are behind closed doors and talking to their

:35:25.:35:27.

constitution, that is when you will see the real face of what these

:35:28.:35:33.

people believe. It is an increasing phenomenon. We are seeing it more.

:35:34.:35:36.

And we're going to carry on seeing it. Not just has the Lewisham mosque

:35:37.:35:44.

stuck by him, but given the clarity of the judge's ruling, are you

:35:45.:35:48.

surprised that the Metropolitan police would wish to continue with

:35:49.:35:53.

Mr Begg as an adviser? I'm absolutely shocked that that

:35:54.:35:56.

decision. What Uzzy going to do Advise them on how to deal with

:35:57.:36:02.

extremist preachers and promote religiously motivated violence? I

:36:03.:36:04.

don't know what he's going to advise them on. Because we now have a judge

:36:05.:36:10.

that has ruled against him and actually classified him as an

:36:11.:36:13.

extremist and somebody who promotes religious violence, we actually have

:36:14.:36:18.

a possibility for the CPS to actually prosecute him. There is a

:36:19.:36:23.

law that has been in place since 2005 called religiously motivated

:36:24.:36:26.

violence. If he has been classified as somebody who promotes this, there

:36:27.:36:31.

is a potential for the CPS to prosecute. I want to called into

:36:32.:36:35.

question other organisations, interfaith organisations, other

:36:36.:36:39.

Muslims groups, who say they want to fight extremism, I call on them to

:36:40.:36:45.

say, this guy is an extremist preacher, we should cut our ties

:36:46.:36:54.

from him. This was a very high risk strategy by the BBC. The exposure

:36:55.:36:59.

could have been over ?1.5 million of licence payers money. Will this make

:37:00.:37:04.

it more difficult for Jekyll and Hyde characters to behave as Mr Begg

:37:05.:37:11.

has behaved? Absolutely. It will do. One of the things they will now have

:37:12.:37:14.

to make sure is that they are a lot more careful. Careful with what they

:37:15.:37:22.

say to their own constituency. It won't solve the theological problem.

:37:23.:37:26.

But it will actually stop other people from operating in this manner

:37:27.:37:30.

and allow other media organisations to have the confidence to expose

:37:31.:37:34.

them when they do. Haras Rafiq, thank you for joining us.

:37:35.:37:36.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:37.:37:39.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:40.:37:41.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:37:42.:37:55.

Hello and a warm welcome to your local part of the show.

:37:56.:37:58.

This week, good news for Nissan as the government offers "stpport

:37:59.:38:00.

and assurances" about life after Brexit,

:38:01.:38:02.

but what about the rest of the region's industries?

:38:03.:38:06.

I will be asking my guests, North East Labour Euro-MP P`ul

:38:07.:38:10.

Brannen and Guy Opperman, the Conservative MP for Hexham.

:38:11.:38:14.

And we will be getting reaction from the chairman of UKIP

:38:15.:38:16.

Also this week, do our councils have enough money to provide adepuate

:38:17.:38:23.

care to older and disabled people? We report from Cumbria.

:38:24.:38:28.

It has been a week dominated by transport.

:38:29.:38:30.

We will talk about Nissan and the motor industry in a moment,

:38:31.:38:33.

but let us get a reaction fhrst to the expansion

:38:34.:38:35.

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling came to Newcastle this week,

:38:36.:38:38.

to explain how a third runw`y would be good for business

:38:39.:38:41.

And as part of the Heathrow deal, he said Durham Tees Valley @irport

:38:42.:38:46.

will also see the reintroduction of flights to London.

:38:47.:38:52.

Another big expansion announcement for the south?

:38:53.:38:54.

Crumbs from the table for this region?

:38:55.:38:57.

This is what the Chamber of Commerce, the airports and `ll the

:38:58.:39:04.

local businesses have been asking for ages.

:39:05.:39:06.

And it was very significant that the first place the Tr`nsport

:39:07.:39:11.

Secretary went to after the announcement about Heathrow Airport

:39:12.:39:14.

Coming to Newcastle Airport, explaining how

:39:15.:39:18.

the connectivity we will get by the expansion of Heathrow,

:39:19.:39:21.

making the north-east a much better place for business

:39:22.:39:23.

Better for business and generally

:39:24.:39:27.

If you can explain Labour's position on this you are a

:39:28.:39:32.

A lot of local Labour MPs s`y it is that a good decision.

:39:33.:39:38.

They are enthusiastic about the expansion of Heathrow

:39:39.:39:39.

The party leadership does not seem to know, does it?

:39:40.:39:42.

I think both of the major parties have politicians on

:39:43.:39:44.

There are people in the Conservative Party

:39:45.:39:47.

opposed to the expansion of Heathrow.

:39:48.:39:49.

I personally am a long-standing climate change

:39:50.:39:50.

campaigner and I am not happy about the expansion of air

:39:51.:39:53.

travel at the moment, when we are trying to tackld

:39:54.:39:55.

Does the party not need to come to some sort of conclusion?

:39:56.:40:02.

The divisions within the Conservative Party, but the

:40:03.:40:04.

We are not in the position to have to take that decision.

:40:05.:40:13.

The Labour Party position, as I understand it

:40:14.:40:15.

at the moment, is that the party is in favour of an expansion to

:40:16.:40:18.

But there are senior figures within the party, going right

:40:19.:40:22.

to the top of the leadership, who are not happy with the decision.

:40:23.:40:25.

I think it is a story which will be rumbling

:40:26.:40:29.

Now, Nissan's decision to build two new models

:40:30.:40:34.

at its Sunderland plant is, everybody accepts, great

:40:35.:40:36.

But what are the political implications?

:40:37.:40:38.

Labour says the government needs to come clean on any secret deal,

:40:39.:40:41.

while ministers deny taxpaydrs' cash has been promised to the colpany.

:40:42.:40:44.

It has all come in the week MPs at Westminster debated

:40:45.:40:46.

the impact Brexit will have upon the North East's econoly.

:40:47.:40:54.

The news from Nissan was grdat for the North East -

:40:55.:40:56.

The PM and other ministers had several meetings with the company

:40:57.:41:01.

and believe the reassurances they offered were crucial.

:41:02.:41:04.

They have been convinced, through the conversations wd have

:41:05.:41:06.

had, that the government sh`res their enthusiasm and is detdrmined,

:41:07.:41:12.

as part of our industrial strategy, that this will be the best place in

:41:13.:41:16.

the world for them to make these investments.

:41:17.:41:18.

We have been showing Nissan and others that we are

:41:19.:41:20.

determined to get the best possible deal from the future relationship

:41:21.:41:23.

we will be negotiating with the European Union.

:41:24.:41:25.

We wish to ensure - and asstre the competitiveness

:41:26.:41:27.

Nissan say they were not offered any special deal.

:41:28.:41:34.

Ministers say no cheque book was flourished.

:41:35.:41:36.

assurances could lead to anx financial commitment.

:41:37.:41:40.

Ahead of the announcement, concerns were raised in Parliament

:41:41.:41:42.

I believe it is incumbent on the government to tell us

:41:43.:41:48.

Because it seems to me that the much-vaunted windf`ll

:41:49.:41:54.

to the Exchequer of not being in the EU will not be

:41:55.:41:59.

available for spending in the NHS, if ever it was, because it will be

:42:00.:42:03.

needed to subsidise industrx in a way we did not need to before.

:42:04.:42:06.

Other North East MPs want to know what may be

:42:07.:42:08.

If some sort of agreement is made around the automotive

:42:09.:42:12.

industry, that would not necessarily involve all of the companies

:42:13.:42:14.

involved in the supply chain to Nissan.

:42:15.:42:16.

Because they also produce p`rts for other companies'

:42:17.:42:18.

manufacturing, they would not necessarily be protected by any

:42:19.:42:20.

special deal being done for the automotive industry.

:42:21.:42:29.

What about the rest of the manufacturing

:42:30.:42:30.

What are ministers planning to do to safeguard their interests?

:42:31.:42:35.

What of the growing tech st`rt-ups in my constituency and elsewhere?

:42:36.:42:38.

But for Brexiteers this is proof positive that the region's

:42:39.:42:41.

industries will thrive outwith the EU and even

:42:42.:42:43.

I find it very depressing that Labour continue to ignore

:42:44.:42:51.

both the wishes of the North East voters, who made it very,

:42:52.:42:53.

very clear that they wanted a different relationship

:42:54.:42:55.

with the EU, by voting in enormous numbers to leave.

:42:56.:43:03.

I have had business knocking on my door consistently durhng

:43:04.:43:07.

the summer excited about the prospect of exporting in a more

:43:08.:43:10.

Being in the single market is not the be

:43:11.:43:17.

Nissan will be remaining here post-Brexit, but questhons

:43:18.:43:23.

remain about the type of de`l they got and what other deals might

:43:24.:43:26.

be on offer for other industries in the region.

:43:27.:43:32.

But you were one of the dool-mongers during the referendum.

:43:33.:43:34.

You told us that Brexit would jeopardise jobs

:43:35.:43:36.

You were wrong and the government is doing everything

:43:37.:43:39.

it can to make sure there is a thriving automotive industry

:43:40.:43:42.

in the north-east well into the future.

:43:43.:43:44.

I am very happy to say this is absolutely fantastic news.

:43:45.:43:46.

It is the best piece of news I have heard since the decision to leave

:43:47.:43:50.

I am delighted for the north-east and

:43:51.:43:53.

delighted for the people who work at Nissan.

:43:54.:43:55.

And also delighted for the people who work in the supply chain,

:43:56.:43:58.

because there is a lot more jobs at stake than purely those

:43:59.:44:00.

It is fantastic news, but I think there is a

:44:01.:44:04.

question about what the arrangement has been.

:44:05.:44:06.

We may have a rather odd situation now, where senior

:44:07.:44:09.

people within Nissan Japan know more about

:44:10.:44:17.

our Brexit arrangements than we know in our own country,

:44:18.:44:19.

particularly in the House of Commons.

:44:20.:44:21.

Ministers have been a bit shady about the details of this.

:44:22.:44:23.

The conclusion has to be th`t some sort of deal was cooked up.

:44:24.:44:27.

They are a company with their head screwed on.

:44:28.:44:29.

Going back to your tape, Nissan accepted that

:44:30.:44:33.

there was no cash incentives, nothing of that manner.

:44:34.:44:37.

What they have said is that we will ensure that the United Kingdom and

:44:38.:44:46.

the north-east is the most competitive place to do bushness,

:44:47.:44:50.

the easiest place to do manufacturing and the best

:44:51.:44:56.

corporation tax and investmdnt rates. The corporation tax. It is no

:44:57.:45:03.

less and 20%. Investment support, apprenticeships, they arrow. All of

:45:04.:45:10.

us in the weeks Nissan were saying they were very concerned. They had

:45:11.:45:15.

multiple meetings with ministers, the impression given in somd

:45:16.:45:19.

newspapers is that Nissan worker told you will not lose out because

:45:20.:45:25.

of Brexit. The implication was that there may not be money no, but there

:45:26.:45:31.

could be in the future. No, they were told that the United Khngdom

:45:32.:45:36.

was totally the best place for you to do business. Better than other

:45:37.:45:41.

places in Europe. You seem that is all they did to persuade thd

:45:42.:45:48.

company? Why not tell us wh`t the deal actually was? This shotld apply

:45:49.:45:54.

to all businesses, from a corner shop to every business in the

:45:55.:46:01.

country. It just happens th`t Nissan was the first in the queue for

:46:02.:46:12.

discussion. Fiona, this is not a Brexit vivid income a better deal

:46:13.:46:15.

having to be made with a colpany, all of which will have to bd done in

:46:16.:46:20.

the future. The company said there was no financial deal made. It is in

:46:21.:46:26.

everyone's interest that we have free trade after we leave the

:46:27.:46:30.

European Union. If all the discussions feel, it will cost the

:46:31.:46:38.

European Union more tariffs. We are in a very strong position. H think

:46:39.:46:44.

we will get the free trade deal There is no certainty that.

:46:45.:46:50.

Common-sense dictates that we will. Tony Blair has suggested th`t Nissan

:46:51.:46:58.

were told that we would be pursuing a deal which would get is a town of

:46:59.:47:05.

three deal in the market. Clearly, something has happened. Nissan Had

:47:06.:47:13.

concerns and worries. Why don't we short-circuit the whole process If

:47:14.:47:18.

there are going to be a serhes of meetings with other companids, why

:47:19.:47:21.

does the Minister not come out and seek these are the arrangemdnts

:47:22.:47:27.

employees for all companies. This is what we have struck with Nissan and

:47:28.:47:36.

we will do the same with others If there are other negotiations, for

:47:37.:47:42.

help will be on offer to other businesses and corporations? Just

:47:43.:47:46.

relating to corporation tax? We need to make sure we have the most

:47:47.:47:53.

competitive country in Europe. The objective is clear. We wish to seek

:47:54.:47:57.

access to the single market with greater control over borders,

:47:58.:48:04.

sovereignty and the legal sxstem. How you take forward that is the

:48:05.:48:08.

prospect of two and a half xears negotiation. But you have to give

:48:09.:48:16.

reassurance to business. Will every industry have helped? It is not the

:48:17.:48:22.

question of help. It is not the type of situation. It is making sure of

:48:23.:48:28.

this country and this region is the most competitive place to do Europe

:48:29.:48:33.

-- business in the hall of Durope. Europe preference for a heart

:48:34.:48:41.

Brexit, leaving the single larket is quickly as possible, could be

:48:42.:48:46.

disastrous for export industries? Ideally, we want a free trade

:48:47.:48:54.

agreement. But you also want control of the Borders, which the Etropean

:48:55.:48:58.

Union hubby Collier will not happen. Obviously, we have a trade deficit

:48:59.:49:03.

and it isn't the interest to strike a deal. If the debt given a good

:49:04.:49:10.

deal, other countries could look at this and say, we would be bdtter

:49:11.:49:16.

looking at the -- leaving the European Union. Surely it is in

:49:17.:49:23.

their interest to play very hard with the United Kingdom. I do not

:49:24.:49:25.

think there is anything to worry about in that regard. Even hf we had

:49:26.:49:35.

to resort to world trade organisation rules, we will be

:49:36.:49:37.

better off. Now, Labour has warned

:49:38.:49:38.

that the majority of local councils can no longer afford the cost

:49:39.:49:41.

of providing adequate They say rising demand,

:49:42.:49:43.

coupled with government cuts, is putting unprecedented prdssure

:49:44.:49:46.

upon services for the most But the government says loc`l

:49:47.:49:48.

authorities can raise more loney from the council tax to spend

:49:49.:49:51.

on the care system. Caring for those who need it,

:49:52.:49:54.

the mark of a compassionate society. Hal is autistic and has

:49:55.:50:01.

a learning disability. But the future of his care

:50:02.:50:06.

is still undecided and the Both Cumbria County

:50:07.:50:08.

Council and the NHS are involved, but neither

:50:09.:50:11.

would comment on the case. I think there are massive

:50:12.:50:14.

staff shortages. It is affecting those

:50:15.:50:16.

who are vulnerable. People like Kyle can't even

:50:17.:50:27.

do their own shopping. I have got a little

:50:28.:50:29.

bit of confidence. I have been fighting for hil

:50:30.:50:32.

since he was three years old. Adult social care is mainly

:50:33.:50:35.

funded by local councils. So, what is the picture

:50:36.:50:37.

in our region? Cumbria County Council

:50:38.:50:39.

is trying to save ?24 million Durham Council is consulting on

:50:40.:50:41.

savings of ?12.5 million next year. Newcastle Council is trying to cut

:50:42.:50:48.

over ?18 million over four xears. And Cleveland is saving

:50:49.:50:53.

?6.5 million over four years. This is a huge challenge

:50:54.:50:59.

for county councils. Not only have they been havhng

:51:00.:51:09.

to cope with government cuts over the past six years,

:51:10.:51:11.

which have been very severe, but you also have an ageing

:51:12.:51:14.

population and you are also having to increase staffing costs

:51:15.:51:17.

because of the introduction of So, it is a massive challenge,

:51:18.:51:19.

but we cannot let down the most vulnerable

:51:20.:51:22.

people in our society. We did ask the Care Minister

:51:23.:51:24.

to take part in the He did send us

:51:25.:51:27.

a statement, pointing out that councils can now incre`se

:51:28.:51:30.

funds for social care But where savings are being made,

:51:31.:51:32.

it is not easy for those affected to always

:51:33.:51:58.

understand what is going on. Any changes whatsoever

:51:59.:52:01.

have an impact on carers. The consultations are quite

:52:02.:52:03.

difficult to read through and I think they sometimes

:52:04.:52:05.

do lack a bit of explanation as to how they have

:52:06.:52:19.

come to these decisions. Cumbria County Council

:52:20.:52:21.

declined to be interviewed. It did say it had been transparent

:52:22.:52:22.

in publicising a wide range of saving options

:52:23.:52:25.

with the public. There is now a consultation

:52:26.:52:27.

in Cumbria about closing care homes and, across the system,

:52:28.:52:29.

there is a lot of uncertainty. What is going to happen?

:52:30.:52:34.

What is going to happen to him? When ministers talk about council 's

:52:35.:53:03.

raising more money by incre`sing council tax, they are always been

:53:04.:53:13.

faced with these huge cuts. Counsels us for greater fundraising powers.

:53:14.:53:19.

This 2% increase in council tax That allows them to raise money But

:53:20.:53:26.

the also have to look at how they run individual councils. In

:53:27.:53:33.

Northumberland, they are pl`nning to spend ?50 million a new centre. But

:53:34.:53:40.

you know it would not make ` difference to the social care

:53:41.:53:45.

budget. It is a different p`rt of money. You cannot have a situation

:53:46.:53:49.

Priya Northumberland is continually in debt and chooses to go bty

:53:50.:53:55.

shopping centres. You cannot do that and then say, you can have the %

:53:56.:54:03.

and run it in a better way. But this is councils across the north-east.

:54:04.:54:09.

We all recognise there is a problem with the National Health Service and

:54:10.:54:14.

social services not integrating in a better way. Successive governments

:54:15.:54:17.

have addressed this with grdater and more difficulty. There are dxamples

:54:18.:54:26.

of integrated systems. That is the way forward. When you bring the two

:54:27.:54:35.

services together. When things come under one roof, as they do hn

:54:36.:54:41.

Manchester, that is a success story. Councils will get that extr` money

:54:42.:54:49.

from council tax. The government is recognising it as an issue `nd

:54:50.:54:54.

dealing with it? One of the difficulties of the option of

:54:55.:54:58.

raising council tax, you max get punished, an election. Therd is an

:54:59.:55:07.

issue there. There are two other things. One is the bigger phcture.

:55:08.:55:14.

Labour do not cause the recdssion, the Conservatives did not c`use a

:55:15.:55:18.

recession. When there is a shortage of money, when we have the lowest

:55:19.:55:23.

borrowing rates. The governlent should be borrowing. So, more

:55:24.:55:31.

borrowing, for more money at this? No, not at all. We talk abott this

:55:32.:55:38.

year after year. What has this got to do with the vulnerable pdople

:55:39.:55:43.

that the councils may well be choosing to spend money on other

:55:44.:55:48.

things? Do the big infrastrtcture projects, employ more peopld we have

:55:49.:55:53.

got high unemployment here, more money for taxes, more for the

:55:54.:56:00.

government to hand out. Less austerity. That is not a short-term

:56:01.:56:06.

solution. These cuts to sochal care, is that not the root of the problem.

:56:07.:56:12.

It is very short-sighted because it puts dwarf strain on hospit`ls. If

:56:13.:56:18.

you spent more than social care you make is to help ease the burden on

:56:19.:56:24.

the National Health Service. We want social care and hospitals to work

:56:25.:56:30.

hand in glove. Take Manchester. They have come together to address this

:56:31.:56:36.

problem. Is it all about throwing more money on a system? No,. You

:56:37.:56:44.

have got the ability through raising council tax to adopt ?241 mhllion to

:56:45.:56:50.

the system. Whatever you thhnk about the economic future, this is not the

:56:51.:56:55.

way to handle this. We are doing is taking money away here meanhng we

:56:56.:57:01.

have to spend more on the N`tional Health Service. Elderly people are

:57:02.:57:03.

falling down all because thdy are falling down all because thdy are

:57:04.:57:06.

not that the key of the need, the ending up in hospital for long

:57:07.:57:12.

periods of time. They could have been staying or for a relathvely

:57:13.:57:14.

small amount of money. Now, normally at this point

:57:15.:57:16.

in the programme we bring you 6 Seconds ? our round-up

:57:17.:57:19.

of the week s political news. But this week, we thought

:57:20.:57:21.

you would enjoy something a little bit different -

:57:22.:57:23.

a light-hearted moment from the Commons, as the MP

:57:24.:57:25.

for Bishop Auckland, Helen Goodman, considered

:57:26.:57:27.

the important issues of light pollution, Brexit and,

:57:28.:57:29.

erm, the problems of mating birds. Light pollution is not just

:57:30.:57:32.

a problem for those wanting It is also confusing for birds,

:57:33.:57:34.

who get confused as to when They sing for so long

:57:35.:57:38.

that they do not have any I am sure the minister

:57:39.:57:42.

will understand I wish to hear the Honourable

:57:43.:57:47.

lady, at such point that she has the opportunitx

:57:48.:58:10.

to regain the necessary composure! From birds to big cats now,

:58:11.:58:19.

In particular, this beast, which in case you do not recognise

:58:20.:58:22.

it, is a Eurasian Lynx. It has been suggested that five

:58:23.:58:25.

pairs of them could be rele`sed into the wild at Kielder

:58:26.:58:28.

forest in Northumberland. It is an idea that's

:58:29.:58:30.

not gone down very well with farmers and the local LP,

:58:31.:58:32.

who has called the idea "cr`zy" I like cats. What is wrong with the

:58:33.:58:54.

lynx? This is a lot bigger than a domestic cat and it happens to eat

:58:55.:59:00.

sheep, attack other animals. Every farmer Ray spoken to thinks it is a

:59:01.:59:12.

terrible idea. -- you have surveyed everyone? I have sent letters to 400

:59:13.:59:16.

people in that district. They were here a hundred ye`rs ago.

:59:17.:59:32.

What are we going to do next, introduce dinosaurs? It is hard to

:59:33.:59:43.

be a farmer when they are bding told that we are going to reintroduce

:59:44.:59:50.

lynx, so look forward to losing your sheep. I am more open-minded about

:59:51.:59:56.

this. They are having a major consultation about this. It is not a

:59:57.:00:00.

decision which will be taken lightly. There is an opinion poll

:00:01.:00:11.

that 90% of people think th`t it is a good idea. Not in my district

:00:12.:00:19.

they do not. People living hn London came to see these sort of things.

:00:20.:00:28.

But they actually have a vidw. Taxpayers down there are subsidising

:00:29.:00:35.

the rural areas. So they ard entitled to the queue. We do not

:00:36.:00:41.

believe in large cats terrorising local populations!

:00:42.:00:43.

And that is about it from us for this week.

:00:44.:00:55.

Barely more than a week now until polling day,

:00:56.:00:59.

and a new revelation rocks the US Presidential election campaign.

:01:00.:01:09.

If it wasn't bizarre enough, it just got more bizarre.

:01:10.:01:12.

The FBI have reopened their investigation into Hillary Clinton's

:01:13.:01:15.

use of private email servers whilst she was Secretary

:01:16.:01:17.

of State, after the discovery of further emails.

:01:18.:01:25.

Though not on her laptop or even the State Department.

:01:26.:01:30.

Donald Trump is saying that it's bigger than Watergate -

:01:31.:01:32.

so could it swing the election in his favour?

:01:33.:01:35.

We spoke to top US pollster, Frank Luntz.

:01:36.:01:36.

The FBI investigation is happening so late in the election process

:01:37.:01:40.

that it would be very difficult to derail a Clinton victory.

:01:41.:01:44.

That said, if there is one thing that could keep Hillary Clinton

:01:45.:01:47.

from the presidency, it's an FBI investigation.

:01:48.:01:53.

But there's still only four states that really matter, Florida, Ohio,

:01:54.:01:55.

Right now, Clinton has beyond the margin of error leads

:01:56.:02:00.

This would have to have a truly significant impact for the election

:02:01.:02:07.

There is a point about a week ago when I was prepared to say that

:02:08.:02:15.

Clinton had a 95% chance of winning this election.

:02:16.:02:20.

Based on what has happened in the last 48 hours,

:02:21.:02:26.

It is still very likely, but I wouldn't bet on it.

:02:27.:02:31.

I thought the 2000 election would be the best election of my lifetime,

:02:32.:02:34.

And then I thought 2008 would be amazing, because we had two

:02:35.:02:39.

challenger candidates and the first African-American President.

:02:40.:02:43.

It is ugly, it's painful, it is as negative as anything

:02:44.:02:52.

The public is angry, the country, overall, is frustrated.

:02:53.:02:57.

But for entertainment value, these candidates probably should

:02:58.:03:04.

have charged us money, because it's better than any movie

:03:05.:03:08.

at ever seen, it's better than any TV show.

:03:09.:03:10.

That was Frank Luntz. He may be right or wrong about Mrs Clinton

:03:11.:03:22.

still having an 80% chance of winning. I would bet on an 80%

:03:23.:03:30.

chance? Yes, absolutely. I spoke to a high-profile American pollster and

:03:31.:03:34.

strategist last night and he took a rather different view to Frank

:03:35.:03:40.

Luntz. He thought, and I think some other high-profile commentators

:03:41.:03:43.

agree, that this is actually much more serious than some people

:03:44.:03:47.

realise. There are an awful lot of undecided voters out there looking

:03:48.:03:53.

for an excuse to vote Trump. They do not like what they see in either

:03:54.:03:57.

candidate. But because this FBI probe is not going to conclude

:03:58.:04:01.

before the election, the question, the doubt over Hillary Clinton,

:04:02.:04:07.

gives them an excuse to back Trump. The thing that will play on the

:04:08.:04:12.

minds of the voters is, could the 100 day honeymoon turning to the 100

:04:13.:04:16.

day divorce? Which even be impeached? It may give some people

:04:17.:04:22.

an excuse not to vote for Mrs Clinton. It could provide a problem

:04:23.:04:26.

in terms of energising her base The battle ground almost matters more

:04:27.:04:33.

than the polls. Florida and Pennsylvania have been trending to

:04:34.:04:39.

Mrs Clinton. Mr Trump needs to win both. He does not get in without

:04:40.:04:45.

both. He needs both. Just coming up in the latest BBC News, the

:04:46.:04:51.

Washington Post tracking poll, Mrs Clinton is now only one point ahead

:04:52.:04:57.

in the national poll. One point Even given my caveat that the state

:04:58.:05:02.

battles are most important. That is incredibly close? It is. Polls

:05:03.:05:08.

yesterday showed Trump nationally closing of. -- up. There is a clear

:05:09.:05:15.

trend and movement. This has reinforced everything that people

:05:16.:05:19.

who have a problem with Hillary Clinton know about Hillary Clinton.

:05:20.:05:23.

Trump is running this insurgent campaign. We have seen at here with

:05:24.:05:28.

Brexit. If you are running an insurgent campaign, you want to be

:05:29.:05:32.

against the ultimate establishment insider and that is what Hillary

:05:33.:05:36.

Clinton is. I suggested it was bizarre. Fathoming the behaviour of

:05:37.:05:42.

the FBI is interesting as well. This is a separate investigation into a

:05:43.:05:46.

former congressman, Anthony Wiener, who had done all sorts of things. He

:05:47.:05:50.

seemed to be sex text thing a minor. A 15-year-old girl. The FBI

:05:51.:05:59.

investigate. They get his laptop to see what else he has been too. In

:06:00.:06:06.

the course of that, his wife, now separated, the closest adviser to

:06:07.:06:09.

Hillary Clinton, they find on the laptop e-mails involving the Clinton

:06:10.:06:19.

server to her. And yet the FBI cannot, it needs now a separate

:06:20.:06:26.

warrant to access these e-mails It hasn't got that yet. It has got a

:06:27.:06:29.

warrant to do the congressman e-mails. On the basis of not knowing

:06:30.:06:36.

the content, this has happened. Yeah. Who knows? He is a Republican,

:06:37.:06:43.

this guy. Earlier this year he was being praised to the hilt by

:06:44.:06:48.

Democrats. Absolutely. The timing is a nightmare for her. You described

:06:49.:06:53.

the whole sequence. There is nothing definitive to doubt in this

:06:54.:06:58.

sequence. All he is saying is he has discovered more e-mails in effect.

:06:59.:07:05.

They are from the congressman's former wife. On Anthony Wiener's

:07:06.:07:12.

laptop, which apparently she used sometimes. But what that shows is

:07:13.:07:19.

that for all the scrutiny of modern politicians, they cannot escape

:07:20.:07:24.

caricature. And as Tim was just saying, her weakness is perceived to

:07:25.:07:28.

be secretive, elitism and complacency about that elitism. And

:07:29.:07:33.

so just the announcement of a reopening of the investigation so

:07:34.:07:38.

fuels that caricature, you have just revealed a poll giving her a 1%

:07:39.:07:42.

lead. That must be related to what has happened. It is without a shred

:07:43.:07:48.

of evidence that she has done anything wrong. You can see how

:07:49.:07:54.

because people only see things encourage kids, that is deadly

:07:55.:07:59.

serious. -- in caricature. An American friend of mine said we have

:08:00.:08:03.

got our October surprise but we don't know what it is. The FBI must

:08:04.:08:10.

surely come under massive pressure. It did its -- it did this against

:08:11.:08:18.

the Justice Department. The difficulty the FBI had was that this

:08:19.:08:21.

information, for what it's worth, it came to them. Were they not to have

:08:22.:08:26.

said something and it worked to have come out later, they would have been

:08:27.:08:30.

accused of a massive cover-up. They are dammed if they do, dammed if

:08:31.:08:35.

they don't. There is still time for another surprise. And early November

:08:36.:08:39.

surprise. Who knows if there might still be something that comes out on

:08:40.:08:44.

Donald Trump? This is the first election where I can remember we

:08:45.:08:48.

have had two October surprises already. There are is stuff about

:08:49.:08:53.

tapes knocking around about Donald Trump saying racist things. The

:08:54.:08:58.

Clintons have got a lot of friends. It would be a big surprise if we did

:08:59.:09:01.

not see anything else in the next few days.

:09:02.:09:03.

Just when you think it could not get more interesting, it has. There has

:09:04.:09:10.

been plenty in the papers lately about the Ukip leadership saying

:09:11.:09:11.

unpleasant things about each other. But what about Mr Farage himself?

:09:12.:09:14.

What's he up to? Well, on BBC Two tonight we may

:09:15.:09:17.

find out the answer. Well, I'm led to believe

:09:18.:09:19.

she's very experienced. But I don't think Strictly Come

:09:20.:09:26.

Dancing is for me. That is, unless, of course,

:09:27.:09:29.

you fancy popping a cheeky zero No, I don't think Strictly

:09:30.:09:35.

Come Dancing is for me. Well, you tell Mr Balls he has just

:09:36.:09:38.

lost your programme one viewer. I might have nothing to do these

:09:39.:09:45.

days but, realistically, Well, that wasn't Nigel Farage. It

:09:46.:10:07.

is a BBC comedy on tonight. Nigel Farage gets his life back. A number

:10:08.:10:12.

of runners and riders. Let's come straight down to it. Who would be

:10:13.:10:17.

the next leader of Ukip? Probably Paul Nuttall. He is the favourite.

:10:18.:10:22.

The one who has the backing, not very enthusiastic backing, is Rahim

:10:23.:10:28.

Cassandra. And also Aaron Banks a big donor. The best of a rather weak

:10:29.:10:39.

lot. I think Paul Nuttall should squeak through. I interviewed all

:10:40.:10:50.

three of them this week. Mr Cassandra is a lively character and

:10:51.:10:53.

he knows how to make a few headlines. With a bit of money

:10:54.:10:56.

behind him, anything is possible. This is a guy who has been to the

:10:57.:11:00.

States, who has literally studied what Trump has done. Pees on

:11:01.:11:11.

secondment for the time being. The guy who is his line manager is one

:11:12.:11:18.

of Donald Trump's campaign stop He is extraordinarily right-wing. I am

:11:19.:11:21.

told he kept a picture of Enoch Powell by his bed. Barry Goldwater

:11:22.:11:29.

is one of his heroes, for example. There are other candidates. I would

:11:30.:11:37.

suggest, put out as a hypothesis, Paul Nuttall is Labour's worst

:11:38.:11:43.

nightmare. They are more vulnerable in the North. Paul Nuttall is from

:11:44.:11:48.

Merseyside, a working-class background, performs well on

:11:49.:11:52.

television. He is a really good interviewee. He is one of the best

:11:53.:11:56.

around in politics at the moment. However, I think whoever gets it has

:11:57.:12:01.

a massive task. The clip of this Nigel Farage satire partly shows

:12:02.:12:08.

why. His dominance was overwhelming. He, in many ways, did a brilliant

:12:09.:12:12.

job at keeping the show on the road. The trouble for all new political

:12:13.:12:17.

parties is keeping it going is tough. A very different party, the

:12:18.:12:22.

SDP, with all those glamorous figures in it, lasted eight years,

:12:23.:12:26.

something like that. I think they are in real trouble at the moment

:12:27.:12:29.

because of the implosion we have been seeing in front of our eyes and

:12:30.:12:35.

the ideal -- ideological splits Whoever gets it will face a tough

:12:36.:12:45.

tussle. All three of the main contenders want to put Nigel Farage

:12:46.:12:47.

in the House of Lords. They were falling over themselves to soak up

:12:48.:12:52.

two farads. That is how you win this election.

:12:53.:12:56.

Mr Aaron Banks, who is he putting his money on? He said he supports

:12:57.:13:03.

Rahim. I know Mr Banks is utterly fed with the shenanigans in Ukip. He

:13:04.:13:08.

thinks it is terribly disorganised, dysfunctional and doesn't want a

:13:09.:13:12.

great deal to do with it for the foreseeable future.

:13:13.:13:14.

It is not quite Trump the Clinton but it is interesting. That is it.

:13:15.:13:19.

The Daily Politics is back tomorrow. And all of next week. Jo Coburn will

:13:20.:13:25.

be your next Sunday because I am off to the United States to begin to

:13:26.:13:29.

rehearse presenting the BBC's US election night coverage on the th

:13:30.:13:36.

of November. It will be here on BBC One, BBC

:13:37.:13:37.

world, BBC News Channel and BBC online.

:13:38.:13:39.

Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:40.:14:09.

A stone stained with blood and beset with a curse.

:14:10.:14:13.

The Moonstone is of inestimable value in India.

:14:14.:14:17.

Its appointed guardians would move heaven and earth to reclaim it

:14:18.:14:20.

Let us not let the past haunt all of our actions.

:14:21.:14:29.

You've got to do something! It's only you that can!

:14:30.:14:29.

He's a scientist, brilliant apparently.

:14:30.:14:31.

But you may be bringing people over here who did things during the war.

:14:32.:14:40.

I will not work for you. I will not work for the British Government

:14:41.:14:45.

Let us not let the past haunt all of our actions.

:14:46.:14:49.

You've got to do something! It's only you that can!

:14:50.:14:53.

Andrew Neil and Richard Moss are joined by Iain Duncan Smith, Chi Onwurah and Haras Rafiq of the Quilliam Foundation. The Daily Mail's Isabel Oakeshott, commentator Steve Richards and Tim Shipman of The Sunday Times are on the political panel.


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