Andrew Neil and Richard Moss are joined by Kezia Dugdale, Patrick O'Flynn, Swedish MP Laila Naraghi and Douglas Murray of the Henry Jackson Society.
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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
Theresa May still has plenty on her plate,
not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords.
But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland,
the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever.
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election,
but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party
The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live.
You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden!
And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact
of migration on Sweden, but after riots in Stockholm this
And here, full reaction from Cumbria to the Conservative by-election win.
What does it mean for the rest of the North?
And are our parish councils value for money?
In London, will the rise in council tax in all but four local
authorities be enough to alleviate the crisis in social care?
And joining me for all of that, three journalists who I'm pleased
to say have so far not been banned from the White House.
I've tried banning them from this show repeatedly,
but somehow they just keep getting past BBC security - it's Sam Coates,
We have had two crucial by-elections, the results last
Thursday night. It's now Sunday morning, where do they believe
British politics? I think it leaves British politics looking as if it
may go ahead without Ukip is a strong and robust force. It is
difficult to see from where we are now how Ukip rebuilds into a
credible vote winning operation. I think it looks unprofessional, the
campaign they fought in Stoke was clearly winnable because the margin
with which Labour held onto that seat was not an impressive one but
they put forward arguably the wrong candidate, it was messy and it's
hard to see where they go from here, particularly with the money problems
they have and even Nigel Farage saying he's fed up of the party. If
Isabel is right, if Ukip is no longer a major factor, you look at
the state of Labour and the Lib Dems coming from a long way behind
despite their local government by-election successes, Tories never
more dominant. I think Theresa May is in a fascinating situation. She's
the most powerful Prime Minister of modern times for now because she
faces no confident, formidable opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher
who in the 1980s, although she won landslides in the end, often looked
like she was in trouble. She was inferred quite often in the build-up
to the election. David Owen, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite
often she was worried. At the moment Theresa May faces no formidable UK
opposition. However, she is both strong and fragile because her
agenda is Brexit, which I still think many have not got to grips
with in terms of how complex and training and difficult it will be
for her. Thatcher faced no equivalent to Brexit so she is both
strong, formidably strong because of the wider UK political context, and
very fragile. It is just when you think you have never been more
dominant you are actually at the most dangerous, what can possibly go
wrong? I think that the money of her MPs they haven't begun to think
through the practicalities of Brexit and she does have a working majority
of about 17 in the House of Commons so at any point she could be put
under pressure from really opposition these days is done by the
two wins inside the Conservative Party, either the 15 Europhiles or
the bigger group of about 60 Brexiteers who have continued to
operate as a united and disciplined force within the Conservative Party
to get their agenda on the table. Either of those wings could be
disappointed at any point in the next three and a half years and that
would put her under pressure. I wouldn't completely rule out Ukip
coming back. The reason Ukip lost in Stoke I think it's because at the
moment Theresa May is delivering pretty much everything Ukip figures
might want to see. We might find the phrase Brexit means Brexit quite
anodyne but I think she is convincing people she will press
ahead with their agenda and deliver the leave vote that people buy a
slim majority voted for. Should that change, should there be talk of
transition periods, shut the migration settlement not make people
happy, then I think Ukip risks charging back up the centre ground
and causing more problems in future. That could be a two year gap in
which Ukip would have to survive. As I said, Ukip is on our agenda for
today. Thursday was a big night
for political obsessives like us, with not one but two
significant by-elections, Ellie braved the wind and rain
to bring you this report. The clouds had gathered,
the winds blew at gale force. Was a change in the air, or just
a weather system called Doris? Voters in Stoke-on-Trent
were about to find out. It's here, a sports hall
on a Thursday night that the country's media reckon
is the true eye of the storm. Would Labour suffer a lightning
strike to its very heart, or would the Ukip threat proved
to be a damp squib? Everybody seems to think the result
in Stoke-on-Trent would be close, just as they did 150-odd miles away
in Copeland, where the Tories are counting on stealing another
Labour heartland seat. Areas of high pressure in both
places, and some strange sights. We knew this wasn't a normal
by-election, and to prove it there is the rapper,
Professor Green. Chart-toppers aside,
winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade was announced first,
where everyone was so excited the candidates didn't even make it
onto the stage for the result. And I do hereby declare
that the said Gareth Snell Nigel Farage has said that victory
here in Stoke-on-Trent But Ukip's newish leader
played down the defeat, insisting his party's
time would come. Are you going to stand again
as an MP or has this No doubt I will stand again,
don't worry about that. The politics of hope beat
the politics of fear. I think Ukip are the ones this
weekend who have got But a few minutes later,
it turned out Labour had Harrison, Trudy Lynn,
the Conservative Party That was more than 2,000
votes ahead of Labour. What has happened here tonight
is a truly historic event. Labour were disappointed,
but determined to be optimistic At a point when we're 15 to 18
points behind in the polls... The Conservatives within 2000 votes
I think is an incredible The morning after the night
before, the losing parties were licking their wounds
and their lips over breakfast. For years and years,
Ukip was Nigel Farage, That has now changed,
that era has gone. It's a new era, it is
a second age for us. So that needs to be
more fully embedded, it needs to be more defined,
you know, and that will We have to continue to improve
in seats where we have stood. As we have done here,
we've improved on our 2015 result, that's what important,
is that we are taking steps Can I be the first to come
here today to congratulate you on being elected the new MP
for Stoke on Trent Central. Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived
in Stoke to welcome his newest MP. Not sure he's going to
Copeland later though. Earlier in the day, the Labour
leader had made clear he'd considered and discounted some
theories about the party's Since you found out that you'd lost
a seat to a governing party for the first time
since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning
looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question -
could the problem actually be me? In the end it was the Conservatives
who came out on top. No governing party has made
a gain at a by-election With the self-styled people's army
of Ukip halted in Stoke, and Labour's wash-out
here in Copeland... There's little chance of rain
on Theresa May's parade. In the wake of that loss in
Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party has been meeting for its spring
conference in the Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson
warned delegates that unless Labour took the by-election defeat
seriously, the party's devastation in Scotland could be repeated
south of the border. Well, I'm joined now
by the leader of Scottish Labour, Even after your party had lost
Copeland to the Tories and with Labour now trailing 16 points in the
UK polls, you claim to have every faith that Jeremy Corbyn would
absolutely win the general election. What evidence can you bring to
support that? There is no doubt the result in Copeland was disappointing
for the Labour Party and I think it's a collective feeling for
everyone within the Labour Party and I want to do what I can to turn
around the fortunes of our party. That's what I've committed to do
while I have been the Scottish Labour leader. This two years ago we
were down the mines so to speak in terms of losing the faith of working
class communities across the country, but we listened very hard
to the message voters are sending and responded to it. That's what I'm
committed to doing in Scotland and that's what Jeremy Corbyn is
committed to doing UK wide. The latest polls put Labour at 14% in
Scotland, the Tories at ten points ahead of you in Scotland, even
Theresa May is more popular than Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will
try again - why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn could win a general
election? What I said when you are talking about Scotland is that I'm
the leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I take responsibility for
our policies here. Voters said very clearly after the Scottish
Parliament election that they didn't have a clear enough sense of what we
stood for so I have been advocating a very strong anti-austerity
platform, coming up with ideas of how we can oppose the cuts and
invest in our future. That is something Jeremy Corbyn also
supports but I've also made it clear this weekend that we are opposed to
a second independence referendum. I want to bring Scotland back together
by focusing on the future and that's why I have been speaking about the
federal solution for the UK. I know that Jeremy Corbyn shares that
ambition because he is backing the plans for a people's Constitutional
Convention. Yes, these are difficult times for the Scottish Labour Party
and UK family, but I have a plan in place to turn things around. It will
take time though. I'm still not sure why you are so sure the Labour party
can win but let me come onto your plan. You want a UK wide
Constitutional Convention and that lead to a new Federalist settlement.
Is it the policy of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to
carve England into federal regions? What we support at a UK wide level
is the people's constitutional convention. I have been careful to
prescribe what I think is in the best interests of Scotland but not
to dictate to other parts of the UK what is good for them, that's the
point of the people's constitutional convention. You heard Tom Watson say
there has to be a UK wide conversation about power, who has it
and how it is exercised across England. England hasn't been part of
this devolution story over the last 20 years, it is something that
happened between Scotland and London or Wales and London. No wonder
people in England feel disenfranchised from that. What
evidence can you bring to show there is any appetite in England for an
English federal solution to England, to carve England into federal
regions? Have you spoken to John Prescott about this? He might tell
you some of the difficulties. There's not even a debate about that
here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy. I speak to John Prescott regularly.
What there is a debate about is the idea the world is changing so fast
that globalisation is taking jobs away from communities in the
north-east, that many working class communities feel left behind, that
Westminster feels very far away and the politicians within it feel
remote in part of the establishment. People are fed up with power being
exercised somewhere else, that's where I think federalism comes in
because it's about bringing power closer to people and in many ways
it's forced on us because of Brexit. We know the United Kingdom is
leaving the European Union so we have to talk about the repatriation
of those powers from Brussels to Britain. I want many of those powers
to go to the Scottish parliament but where should they go in the English
context? It is not as things currently stand the policy of the
English Labour Party to carve England into federal regions,
correct? It is absolutely the policy of the
UK Labour Party to support the people's Constitutional convention
to examining these questions. I think it is really important. You're
promising the Scottish people a federal solution, and you have not
even squared your own party for a federal solution in England. That is
not true. The UK Labour Party is united on this. I am going to
Cardiff next month to meet with Carwyn Jones and various leaders.
United on a federal solution? You know as well as I know it is not
united on a federal solution. We will have a conversation about power
in this country. It is not united on that
issue? This is the direction of travel. It is what you heard
yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom Watson, when you hear from people
like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle City Council and Labour's Local
Government Association. There is an appetite for talking about power.
Talking is one thing. We need to have this conversation across the
whole of the United Kingdom, to have a reformed United Kingdom. It is a
conversation you're offering Scotland, not the policy. Let's come
onto the labour made of London. He was in power for your conference. He
wrote in the record yesterday, there is no difference between Scottish
nationalism and racism. Would you like this opportunity to distance
yourself from that absurd claim? I think that Sadiq Khan was very clear
yesterday that he was not accusing the SNP of racism. What he was
saying clearly is that nationalism by its very nature divides people
and communities. That is what I said in my speech yesterday. I am fed up
living in a divided and fractured country and society. Our politics is
forcing is constantly to pick sides, whether you're a no, leave a remain,
it brings out the worst in our politicians and politics. All the
consensus we find in the grey areas is lost. That is why am standing
under a banner that together we are stronger. We have to come up with
ideas and focus on the future. That is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He
said quite clearly in the Daily Record yesterday, and that the last
minute he adapted his speech to your conference yesterday, to try and
reduce the impact, that there was no difference between Scottish
nationalism and racism. Your colleague, and Sarwar, said that
even after he had tried to introduce the caveats, all forms of
nationalism rely on creating eyes and them. Let's call it for what it
is. So you are implying that the Scottish Nationalists are racist.
Would you care to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I utterly
refute that that is what Sadiq Khan said. I would never suggest that the
SNP are an inherently racist party. That does is a disservice. He did
not see it. What he did say, however, is that nationalism is
divisive. You know that better than anyone. I see your Twitter account.
Regularly your attack for the job you do as a journalist. Politics in
Scotland is divided on. I do not want to revisit that independence
question again for that reason. As leader of the Labour Party, I want
to bring our country back together, appeal to people who voted yes and
no. That banner, together we are stronger, that is where the answers
lie in defaulters can be found. If in response to the Mayor of London,
your colleague says, let's call it out for what it is, what is he
referring to if he is not implying that national symbol is racist? --
and that nationalism is racist? He is saying that it leads to divisive
politics. The Labour Party has always advocated that together we
are stronger. Saying something is divisive is very different from
saying something is racist. That is what the Mayor of London said. That
is what your colleague was referring to. He did not. You would really
struggle to quote that from the Mayor of London. He talked about
being divided by race. What does that mean? I think he was very clear
that he was talking about divided politics. There is an appetite the
length and breadth of the country to end that divisive politics. That is
what I stand for, focusing on the future, bringing people back
together, concentrating on what the economy might look like in 20 years'
time in coming up with ideas to tackle it today. Thank you for
joining us. Thursday's win for Labour
in Stoke-on-Trent Central gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn,
but for Ukip leader and defeated Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall
there were no consolation prizes. I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's
principal political Welcome to the programme. Good
morning. How long will Paul Nuttall survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks,
months? You are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip
was formed in 1993 with the express purpose, much mocked, of getting
Britain out of the European Union. Under the brilliant leadership of
Nigel Farage, we were crucial in forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to
make a referendum promise he did not want to give. With our friends in
Fort leave and other organisations. Mac we know that. Get to the answer.
We helped to win that referendum. The iteration of Ukip at the moment
that we're in, the primary purpose, we are the guard dog of Brexit.
Viewed through that prism, the Stoke by-election was a brilliant success.
A brilliant success? We had the Tory candidate that had pumped out
publicity for Remain, for Cameron Bradley, preaching the gospel of
Brexit. We had a Labour candidate and we know what he really felt
about Brexit, preaching the Gospel according to Brexit. You lost. Well
the by-election was going on, we had the Labour Party in the House of
Commons pass the idea of trickling Article 50 by a landslide. Are
passionate thing, the thing that 35,000 Ukip members care about the
most, it is an extraordinary achievement. I am very proud. What
would you have described as victory as? If we could have got Paul
Nuttall into the House of Commons, that would have been a fantastic
cherry on the top. Losing was an extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip
supporters the Stoke was winnable, but Paul Nuttall's campaign was
marred by controversy, Tory voters refuse to vote tactically for Ukip
to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr Nuttall is to blame for not winning
what was a winnable seat? I do not see that at all. This is
counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn did do one thing that made it more
difficult for us to win. Fantasy. That was to take Labour into a
Brexit position formerly. Just over 50 Labour MPs had voted against
triggering Article 50. In political terms, we have intimidated the
Labour Party into backing Brexit. How much good is it doing you? It
comes to the heart of the problem your party faces.
You're struggling to win Tory Eurosceptic voters. For the moment,
they seem happy with Theresa May. Stoke shows you're not winning
Labour Brexit voters either. If you cannot get the solution Tolisso
labour, where does your Broad come from? In terms of the by-election,
it came very early for Paul. I'm talking about the future. We have a
future agenda, and ideological argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour
Party, which is wedded to the notion of global citizenship and does not
recognise the nation state. We know he spent Christmas sitting around
campfires with Mexican Marxist dreaming of global government. We
believe in the nation state. We believe that the patriotic working
class vote will be receptive to that. Your Broad went down by 9% in
Cortland. In Copeland we were squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable
to squeeze the Tories, who are on a high. Our agenda is that social
solidarity is important but we arrange it in this country by nation
and community. We want an immigration system that is not only
reducing... We know what you want. I do not think people do. You had a
whole by-election to tell people and they did not vote for you and. When
Nigel Farage said it was fundamental that you were winner in Stoke, he
was wrong? Nigel chooses his own words. I would not rewrite them. It
would be a massive advantage to Ukip to have a leader in the House of
Commons in time to reply to the budget, Prime Minister's questions
and all of that. But we have taken the strategic view that we will
fight the Labour Party for the working class vote. It is also true
that the Conservatives will make a pitch for the working class vote
might as well. All three parties have certain advantages and
disadvantages. As part of that page, Nigel Farage said that your leader,
Paul Nuttall, should have taken a clear, by which I assume he meant
tough, line on immigration. Do you agree? He took a tough line on
immigration. He developed that idea at our party conference in the
spring. Nigel Farage did not think so? Nigel Farage made his speech
before Paul Nuttall made his speech. He said this in the aftermath of the
result. Once we have freedom to control and Borders, Paul wants to
set up an immigration system that includes an aptitude test, do you
have skills that the British economy needs, but also, and attitudes test,
do you subscribe to core British values such as gender equality and
freedom of expression? We will be making these arguments. It is
certainly true that Paul's campaign was thrown off course by,
particularly something that we knew the Labour Party had been preparing
to run, the smear on the untruths, the implications about Hillsborough.
If you knew you should have anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps
to bankroll your party, he said that Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the
Tory cabal in Europe, by which he means Douglas Carswell, Neil
Hamilton. Should they be stripped of their membership? Of course not. As
far as I knew, Alan Banks was a member of the Conservative Party
formally. I do not know who this Tory cabal is supposed to be. He
says that your party is more like a jumble sale than a political party.
He says that the party should make him chairman or they will work. What
do you see to that? He has made that statement several times over many
months, including if you do not throw out your only MP. Douglas
Carswell has managed to win twice under Ukip colours. Should Tibi
chairman? I think we have an excellent young chairman at the
moment. He is doing a good job. The idea that Leave.EU was as smooth
running brilliant machine, that does not sit with the facts as I
understand them. Suzanne Evans says it would be no great loss for Ukip
if Mr Banks walked out, severed his ties and took his money elsewhere.
Is she right. I am always happy people who want to give money and
support your party want to stay in the party. The best donors donate
and do not seek to dictate. If they are experts in certain fields,
people should listen to their views but to have a daughter telling the
party leader who should be party chairman, that is a nonstarter. You
have described your existing party chairman is excellent. He said it
could be 20 years before Ukip wins by-election. Is he being too
optimistic? There is a general election coming up in the years'
time. We will be aiming to win seats in that. Before that, we will be the
guard dog for Brexit, to make sure this extraordinary achievement of a
little party... You are guard dog without a kennel, you cannot get
seat? We're keeping the big establishment parties to do the will
of the people. If we achieve nothing else at all, that will be a
magnificent achievement. Thank you very much.
Sweden isn't somewhere we talk about often
should because this week it was pulled into
the global spotlight, thanks
Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked for referring to an incident that
had occurred last night in Sweden as a result of the country's open
Critics were quick to point out that no such incident had occurred
and Mr Trump later clarified on Twitter and he was talking
about a report he had watched on Fox News.
But as if to prove he was onto something,
next day a riot broke out in a Stockholm suburb
with a large migrant population, following unrest in such areas
So what has been Sweden's experience of migration?
In 2015, a record 162,000 people claimed asylum there, the second
That number dropped to 29,000 in 2016 after the country introduced
border restrictions and stopped offering permanent
Tensions have risen, along with claims of links to crime,
although official statistics do not provide evidence of a refugee driven
Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump, claiming this week that migrants
have led to a dramatic rise in sexual offences.
Although the country does have the highest reported
rate of rape in Europe, Swedish authorities say recent rises
were due to changes to how rape and sex crimes are recorded.
Aside from the issue of crime, Sweden has struggled
Levels of inequality between natives and migrants when it comes
Unemployment rates are three times higher for foreign-born workers
We're joined now by Laila Naraghi, she's a Swedish MP from the
governing Social Democratic Party, and by the author and
The Swedish political establishment was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks,
pointing to a riot that hadn't taken place, then a few nights later
serious riots did break out in a largely migrant suburb of Stockholm
so he wasn't far out, was he? I think he was far out because he is
misleading the public with how he uses these statistics. I think it is
important to remember that the violence has decreased in Sweden for
the past 20 years and research shows there is no evidence that indicate
that immigration leads to crime and so I think it is far out. The social
unrest in these different areas is not because of their ethical
backgrounds of these people living there but more about social economic
reasons. OK, no evidence migrants are responsible for any kind of
crime? This story reminds me after what happened to the Charlie Hebdo
attacks in Paris when also a Fox News commentator said something that
was outlandish about Paris and the Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox
News, saying you are making our city look bad. It's a bit like that
because the truth on this lies between Donald Trump on the Swedish
authorities on this. Sweden and Swedish government is very reluctant
to admit any downsides of its own migration policy and particularly
the migration it hard in 2015 but there are very obvious downsides
because Sweden is not a country that needs a non-skilled labour force
which doesn't speak Swedish. What was raised as the matter of
evidence, what is the evidence? First of all if I can say so the
rape statistics in Sweden that have been cited are familiar with the
rape statistics across other countries that have seen similar
forms of migration. Danish authorities and the Norwegian
authorities have recorded a similar thing. It is not done by ethnicity
so we don't know. And this is part of the problem. It is again a lot of
lies and rumours going about. When it is about for example rape, it is
difficult to compare the statistics because in Sweden for example many
crimes that in other countries are labelled as bodily harm or assault
are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also how it is counted because if a woman
goes to the police and reports that her husband or boyfriend has raped
her, and done it every night for one year, in Sweden that is counted as
365 offences. Something is going wrong, I look at the recent news
from Sweden. Six Afghan child refugees committed suicide in the
last six months, unemployment among recent migrants now five times
higher than among non-migrants. We have seen gang violence in Malmo
where a British child was killed by a grenade, rioting in Stockholm.
Police in Sweden say there are 53 areas of the country where it is now
dangerous to patrol. Something has gone wrong. Let me get back to what
I think is the core of this debate if I may and that is the right for
people fleeing war and political persecution to seek asylum, that is
a human right. In Sweden we don't think we can do everything, but we
want to live up to our obligation, every country has an obligation to
receive asylum seekers. But you have changed your policy on that because
having taken 163,001 year alone, you have then closed your borders, I
think very wisely, closed the border which means 10,000 people per day at
one point were walking from Denmark in to Malmo, you rightly changed
that so he realised whatever ones aspirations in terms of asylum, it
sometimes meets reality and Sweden is meeting the reality of this.
Let's respond to that. We are not naive, we know we cannot do
everything but we want to try to do our share as we think other
countries also need to do their share. But let me say that, if you
look at what the World Economic Forum is saying about our country
they show we are in the top of many rankings, the best country to live
in, to age in, to have children in, to start into -- to start
enterprise. Why have you not been so good at integrating migrants? The
unemployment rate is five times higher among migrants than
non-migrants and that's the highest ratio of any country in the EU and
the OECD, why have you not been able to integrate the people you have
brought in for humanitarian reasons? I'm sure there are things we can do
much better of course but if you look for example at the immigration
that came in the 90s from the Balkans, they are well integrated
and contributing to our society. They are starting enterprises and
working in different fields of society, and they help our country.
Why have they not got jobs, the migrants that have come in? It takes
time. In the 90s we managed it and I'm sure we can do it again. Can I
put this into some context, it is clear Sweden has got problems as a
result of the number of migrants that come in, whether it is as bad
as Mr Trump and others make out is another matter, but perhaps I can
put it into context. Malmo, which has been at the centre of many of
these migrant problems, its homicide rate is three per hundred thousand.
Chicago, 28 per 100,000. It may have problems but they are not huge. No,
they are pretty huge and I think they will grow. The Balkan refugees
into Sweden in the 90s did bring a lot of problems and Sweden did for
the first time see serious ethnic gang rivalries. There was an upsurge
in gang-related violence that has gone on since. The situation in
Malmo in particular is exaggerated by some people, there's no doubt
about that, I have been there many times and it is undoubtedly
exaggerated by some, it is also vastly unpersuaded by the Swedish
authorities. -- understated. In 2010, one in ten Jews in Malmo
registered some form of attack on them. It got so bad that in 2010
people offered to escort Jews... You have had a good say and I have got
to be fair here, what do you say to that, Laila Naraghi? There are
people trying to frame our country in a certain way to push their own
agenda. I regret that President Trump is trying to slander our
country. But what about the specific point on Malmo? If you speak to
people in Malmo and also to different congregations, they say
they are working together with the authorities to improve this. I say
again, there are a lot of people trying to spread rumours and lies.
Your situation is very like the situation we had in Britain when we
have these situations in Rotherham and elsewhere. 1400 girls were raped
in Rotherham before police even admitted it was going on. That
happened in Britain in the last decade, a similar phenomenon. An
upsurge in particularly sexual and other forms of violence and then
total denial by an entire political class is now something that is
happening in Sweden. I see it in Swedish authorities and the denial
that comes up and the desire to laugh and dismiss Trump but he's not
answer nothing and that's a painful thing for any society to want to
admit to. There are number of Swedes who think the establishment is
covering up the true statistics, that you don't break crime down by
ethnic crimes, people are suspicious of the centre-left and centre-right
parties now in Sweden. There is no denial and no cover-up. This is what
I'm speaking about when I say people are trying to frame it in a certain
way. The social unrest is not because of the ethnical background
of the people living there but rather because of different
socioeconomics conditions. There is no research that shows
immigration... But you don't do the research into it. Swedish
authorities deliberately ensure you cannot carry out such research and
after the attacks in Cologne in 2015 it was the first time then that the
Swedish authorities and press admitted that similar sexual
molestation have been going on for years in Sweden. Is it right to
think, given the problem is maybe not as bad as many people make out
but clearly problems, given these problems, is the age of mass asylum
seeking for Sweden over? You have cut the numbers by 80% coming in
last year compared with 2015, is it over while you concentrate on
getting right the people that you have there already? We want to do
our share, we have done a lot and now we are concentrating of course
on integration and making sure people get a job, and also
on big welfare investments because it's important to remember that for
eight years Sweden were governed by a government that prioritised big
tax cuts instead of investment in welfare. It may just not work. I am
grateful to you both, we have to leave it there.
It's coming up to 11:40am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
the Week Ahead, when we'll be asking if the Government is facing defeat
Hello, and a warm welcome to your local part of the show.
We'll be asking what that historic Conservative victory in Copeland
tells us about the state of the main parties in Cumbria and
My guests this week are the leader of Cumbria County
Council's Conservative group, a man who campaigned in Copeland,
Mr James Airey, Ukip's Euro MP for the North
East, Jonathan Arnott, who spent a lot of time in Stoke,
and in our Middlesbrough studio Stockton North MP Alex Cunningham.
Also coming up, the cost is rocketing and some it is
said of incomplete disarray - are our parish councils
And Labour ended up making history but
An eight point increase in the Conservative vote delivered
to the Tories a seat they hadn't won since the 1930s.
No surprise, then, that by Friday lunchtime the Prime
Minister was in West Cumbria to celebrate the result with the
This is an astounding victory for the Conservative Party but also for
You know, Labour have held this seat since the 1930s.
A party in Government hasn't won a by-election from the
opposition and a seat held by the opposition for 35 years.
Labour support dropped by 5% despite a fiercely fought campaign
on Brexit and local NHS services, but supporters refused to blame
-- the threats to local NHS services.
It certainly isn't Jeremy Corbyn's fault.
Jeremy Corbyn's been the labour of the Labour Party
And Jeremy didn't, certainly, as far as I was
concerned, he didn't crop up on the doorstep
But the party wasn't the only loser from the Copeland contest.
Ukip's suffered its worst by-election performance
Well, a bit disappointing really, but I think there's probably a bit
of tactical voting going on here because the media was reporting it
was a two horse race so I think people have
And people also think they've got Brexit so I think
they've probably gone back to their original parties
when they voted for Ukip to get the referendum, possibly.
So this is how the political map of the county now looks
after the loss of Copeland, with Labour MPs in
Workington and Barrow and conservatives in Carlisle and
West and Lonsdale also held of course by
And as for those pro-Remain Liberal Democrats,
therefore it actually went up in Copeland,
as it has done in every by-election since Brexit.
Let's assess the significance of all that now with my guests.
Alex Cunningham, in our Middlesbrough studio, some
people blaming Jeremy Corbyn for this result, some blaming Tony
Blair, some blaming people like yourselves who resigned
in the summer from the front bench, obviously you've come back now.
What, in your view, is behind the loss of this seat?
Well, I mean, it's very disappointing what happened there.
I thought Gillian fought a fantastic campaign and did extremely well.
However, I think the people of Copeland wanted to send the Labour
Party a message and I just hope that we can take all that on board,
get stuck in and make sure that we take
our message of social justice on the NHS and
everything else back to the
people again and convince them that we are the party of the future.
And I also hope that when the Prime Minister
was there she actually confirmed to the people of West
Cumberland that their health service is safe there,
But you think they were sending a message.
What message do you think they were sending to you?
I think they were sending us a message that we've been a bit
out of touch of late, that some of our
policies may not be aligned to theirs.
But also those issues around the support for the
Jeremy made it clear, I made it clear on the doorstep as
well, that we were very much omitted to that industry.
Nobody is going to throw away thousands of well-paid
jobs and I think it is important that we continue to try to get that
message across, that we are pro-nuclear, we believe in an energy
mix, and we believe in all the jobs that are there in career.
And Jeremy Corbyn's part in this - was he an asset?
Jeremy 's name was mentioned to me on the doorstep a few times.
A few people were not happy with his leadership
and that is something for
him to reflect on and the rest of us as well.
Well, we may again come back to that.
Jonathan Arnott, there was a significant drop in the Ukip
Slipping into fourth, on top of what happened in Stoke,
A bad night for your party, wasn't it?
Yeah, I mean, I think we probably, hand on heart, expected it would be
difficult for us in Copeland simply because we've got a seat which is
being fiercely fought by two political juggernauts, the Labour
It's always going to be difficult for a
party with Ukip's resources to avoid getting squeezed and afraid that's
Obviously, not the MP for Stoke, as it turned out.
You backed him for the leadership very strongly,
After all that scorn on with the claims and
counterclaims about Hillsborough, is he still the right leader for
What happened with Hillsborough, to be
absolutely clear, Paul is someone who was at Hillsborough, he was 12
years old at the time, he was there with family
and with close personal friends, and he did know somebody
What has happened is that somebody has put up
on his website, without it being fully checked, a story where they
have effectively conflated those two things.
And that is something that was done over five years ago, so I
completely understand it has been damaging, there has been
An error was made many years ago and it's time
to draw a line under that and move on.
James Airey, obviously this was a good win for
the Conservatives but it wasn't the most glorious campaign, was it?
The visit by the Prime Minister, not the
one we saw on Friday, but the one during the campaign, refusal to give
straight answers about the West Cumberland hospitals Alex Cunningham
referred to was a bit of a PR own-goal.
So did you win despite the concerns over the NHS?
What we did was fight a very positive campaign
and it is a tremendous result, let's not get away from that.
The last time a governing party won a
by-election it was back in 1982 when Michael Foot
led the Labour Party, and I'm not going to make any
comparisons between Jeremy Corbyn and Michael That.
We won the campaign because we had an eight
excellent local candidate in Trudy Harrison,
who worked her socks off, she had a strong, positive campaign
that clearly set out what you wanted to achieve for the people of
Copeland and it was a negative campaign of Labour that really,
We always thought it was going to be close but it was an
outstanding victory and Labour did themselves no favours by running
But now Trudy Harrison has to deliver on those
And over the hospital, whatever she said, the
Prime Minister has really failed to say that she will step in to save
It could be a very short honeymoon period if those services move.
Trudy Harrison could do nothing about it.
I know that Trudy Harrison will do
her absolute utmost to make sure that local
services are returned in
Whitehaven Hospital, and that is key for us all.
As a Cumbrian Conservative politician, let me put
it straight on the record - we support all the local NHS services.
That's not the message coming from Downing Street.
They were much more equivocal about it and that is going
to be a problem if Trudy Harrison can't deliver, because at the top
level of Government they are not interested.
Trudy has had the Prime Minister up visiting Cumbria straight away.
She is going to be talking to trees in May about the
That's not forget it was a very costly PFI, huge financial burden,
brought in under a Labour Government that caused many of those
What we actually need is a Prime Minister who will
actually commit to the health service in the West Cumberland.
We haven't had that commitment and whilst the new MP may well be
committed to it, as the Prime Minister said the new MP is
committed to it, we need a Prime Minister who is committed
to the NHS, not somebody who shies away from making the
OK, we'll see what happens with that.
This result, though, doesn't it show how vulnerable
Labour MPs in some of the rest of the region are?
Places like Darlington, Middlesbrough South - the
Conservatives will be licking their lips, even places
like Bishop Auckland on the current polling.
You should be looking to win seats not
Most certainly, and we are working across across the piece, knocking
doors and speaking to people all the time.
But it is a very real lesson to us and we've got to remember that
we mustn't take anything for granted.
The north-east has been a bedrock, the whole of the
north of England has been a bedrock for the Labour Party, and we mustn't
be complacent about that, we must make sure we are in contact with
people, taking those messages on social justice
OK, would you accept that if you're polling doesn't improve and we keep
getting results like Copeland, Jeremy Corbyn cannot lead the party
Well, we're coming up to a set of by-elections, not by-elections -
council elections and male role in elections, soon and I'm sure that
Jeremy will assess what happens then and...
It's Groundhog Day, we were in this position last year.
Well, we were, yes, and at that stage Jeremy
had only been leader for a few months.
Now he's been leader of the nearly two years and I think this is
a real test of two years of his leadership.
I think that's a matter for Jeremy and our other
colleagues as well who I'm sure we'll be offering him plenty of
advice about what he should do regardless of the results.
But I think we need to be able to concentrate
It doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement from one of his
But, anyway, Jonathan Arnott - the referendum has
The lesson of Copeland is that the challenge in
the north, to Labour, is coming from the Conservatives, not from Ukip.
Well, Copeland is a seat where the Conservatives in a very strong
If we had a by-election somewhere in the
north-east where Ukip were in a very strong second place I'm sure you'd
see something very different, whether its Hartlepool or Blyth
Valley for example, 11 of the constituencies in the north-east
have Ukip in second place at present, so actually we're in a very
strong position to challenge if we can get a positive message out
Very briefly, James Airey, with all the
promises made, A595, will the Government
act on that once they said what they're going to do about it?
I'll be working with Trudy, the local transport
authority, Cumbria County Council, important elections in May.
We need to get that investment into Cumbria,
Now, away from the by-election, local authorities have been setting
The most householders it means a big rise in bills.
Here is that, plus the rest of the week's News in 60 seconds.
Northumberland is the latest to put its council tax up by around 5%.
Labour councillor, Susan Dungworth, says it still leaves them far short
of the amount they need to provide social care for the elderly.
What the Government are doing is they are
reducing the national funding for social care.
And what they are saying to local authorities
is you can raise that money yourself.
That claim was challenged by Conservative Peter Jackson.
Year after year they keep claiming that
they're not getting enough money from central Government.
I think they've got to look at themselves,
the amount of money they are wasting is quite dramatic.
A public enquiry into plans for an opencast coal mine
in Northumberland will take place on my May.
Campaigners have been fighting to stop the Banks group
removing 3 million tonnes of coal from land near Widdrington, west of
And, finally, tributes have been paid to the
veteran Labour politician Don Dixon, who has died at the age of 87.
A former shipyard worker, Lord Dixon was MP for Jarrow
until 1997 and a former deputy Chief Whip.
That's Luke Walton with the 60 second round up.
James, a near 4% rise in council tax bills for Cumbria.
You're not in control of that council, but is that justified?
I think it's very difficult to justify such a high council tax,
so should certainly on social care the 2% of that spin ring fenced and
Government has encouraged local authorities to charge residents
the 2% for providing social care, I think that's very justified.
The other 2% we haven't entirely had explained to us how the ruling
administration are going to spend it and there's been one heck of a lot
There's also been a lot of cut in the
Even the social care thing, it's a sticking plaster
That money, as with many northern councils, will not raise anywhere
near enough to solve the social care crisis.
Look, it would be wrong of me to say that there isn't pressure
on social care, but I found out just prior to Cumbria's budget last week
that the social care Department in Cumbria County Council is actually
There was a gaping hole there, they don't know
That's just passing the buck, isn't it?
I think Government needs to have confidence in local authorities
before they start to ramp up extra funding.
We need to prove that we can spend it wisely and make sure
that money is getting to front line services.
Alex, it's going up nearly 5% in Stockton, in your area, but
won't people be happy to pay a bit extra to ensure that the vulnerable
I think they will be happy to pay that, but let us
remember this is a Government levy, not a council tax increase.
It's a Government levy in order to pay for social care.
But our social care system needs some ?2.6 billion over
the next four or five years in order just to break even and we are not
getting that money from central Government and it's time they
thought about national taxation in order to pay for social care
instead of passing the back to local councillors.
But this is a local service, why shouldn't council tax be used
And then people can see whether the money is
being spent wisely in their local area?
It has been traditionally delivered locally with Government
funding and we've seen huge cuts, billions of pounds cut from social
care over recent years and it is time the Government stood back and
said how on earth do we put this right?
They put that right by accepting responsibility through the taxpayer.
Jonathan, Ukip is generally hostile to putting up taxes, as we know,
but is this the only way to solve the social care crisis?
Well, Ukip on a national level have said that we
should be cutting the foreign aid budget so that we are helping with
natural disasters and things like that but not some of the worst
excesses that we've been seeing, and to plough
that money into the NHS and into adult social care.
James, there are a lot of conservatives who
have agreed with that, wouldn't they?
Yes, but that's an entirely different issue and we do need to
It's not, it's public money being spent in one
Perhaps that's right but we talk about Government
cutting social care funding to local authorities, overall funding
packages have been cut to local authorities but it is about local
choice, if councillors councils have decided to cut social care budgets
it has often been Labour-controlled councils that have made
I'm sure Alex Wood, if he had time,...
There is nothing more local than elected councillors
making budget decisions - that is what they do.
OK, we'll have to leave it there - I'm sure it's a subject
Now, parish councils were traditionally responsible for
maintaining flowerbeds, graveyards, the occasional public toilet, but
they've taken on an increasingly important role in recent years, but
with the extra responsibility has come big rises in the parish precept
which is paid by households on top of the other bits of council tax.
As Fergus Hewison reports, there appears
to be no limit on how high thou those bills can go.
Berwick-upon-Tweed - a town used to strife
But in recent years there has been civil
Would you make of Berwick town council?
Not a lot. Why is that?
Well, I think there could be a lot more done for
We all want what's best for the town and if certain people can't agree
I've heard about them at the council meetings and that, I think it's
about time they got their act together.
So why does the town council have this reputation?
The answer perhaps is in these two official reports into terror Berwick
town council, both of which paint a picture of a dysfunctional
The first report found a culture of mistrust, suspicion and
disrespectful behaviour which brought the council into disrepute.
Another report looked at the management of ?100,000 one in a
competition run by celebrity retail expert Mary Portas.
The money was meant to improve Berwick's high-street.
But the report says the fund was mismanaged by the town
council and it identified significant financial weaknesses.
Councillor Georgina Hill claims she attempted to highlight these and
The governance was absolutely shocking.
There was no due diligence or risk assessment done.
Anyone that tried to ask any questions or
scrutinise, which is what we are meant to do, was shot down.
Berwick town council says the issues raised
And others agree that the council has changed.
We have a set of accounts now that are transparent and clear.
We don't have any secret groups taking decisions without
We are on the mend and and we can prove that and demonstrated
by what we can see around us, happening in the town, today.
All that turmoil in Berwick did not stop
the town's share of the council tax, the precept, rising by 35% in just
But Berwick's was by no means the biggest increase.
Over the last four years, the largest
precept increase by any town or parish council in Northumberland
council increased it by 268% in this time.
In North Yorkshire the largest increase was 350% in Normanby,
and in Cumbria it was a massive 610% in Ulfor.
At the same time, larger local authorities haven't been able
to raise their council tax by more than 2% a year
One town council not short of cash is Peterlee in County Durham.
If you live in an average-sized house in Peterlee you'll pay
almost ?300 a year to the town council for its services.
That's the second highest rate in all of England.
And there's been controversy too about the council's
reserves - it has more than ?1 million in the bank.
Hardly surprising, then, that last year a
poll of Peterlee residents found they wanted the precept frozen.
But a new administration says it's now
You're seeing more and more people now wanting to take notice of what
You're seeing more and more local social media groups saying,
what's going on with this, what's going on with that?
The play areas, the allotments dash more and more
people in the town are taking a lot more notice because people feel they
And many town and parish councils argue
increases are justified because they are taking on services
that larger councils have stopped providing.
England's 10,000 parish councils are being asked to do a lot more,
they are asked being asked to do a lot
more by their residents, by Government, and indeed by other
larger councils that increasingly can't afford to run services that
One place that illustrates that point is West Bedlington
in Northumberland, where the town precept has risen
by 93% in the last four years, all to pay for vital services.
We do the very local services, the things like play
areas, bus shelters, litter bins - all that sort of the basic town
And what we've done is we've tried to get them in the
As the scope of many town and parish councils grows, they have more
But all that comes at a price and is attracting ever greater scrutiny.
And a spokesman from the Department for Communities and
Local Government said they expect parish and town councils to
demonstrate restraint when setting bills, but point out that parish
councils do play a key role in designing new and innovative
James Airey, the Government forward says forces
larger councils who want to raise council tax above a certain level,
it will be 5% this year, to have a referendum before doing it.
Why don't they insist on the same thing
I think you have to remember, Richard,
that many of these parish councils are very small councils, perhaps
councils representing some very small villages in general areas.
When you look at some of the percentages
we are only talking in
Now, instinctively, as a Conservative, when we see some of
the figures on your report I am shocked,
but you need to look at the
information behind that and it may be a one-off
increase to provide a
I mean, our parish councils are having to pick
up a lot of services that district councils in particular are no longer
Jonathan Arnott, the percentages do look frightening but
as James points out, on average, these councils are charging just
over ?50 a year - some of them are charging
the price of a portion of
fish and chips to be honest with you, each year.
I mean, basically, we want democracy to be
as close as possible to the citizens, so parish and town
It brings services as close as possible
So all that is good and when you get a parish or town
council charging too much of course it is much
take control of that council and to do something about it...
But part of the problem is a lot of these
councils are not even elected because there is so little interest
Well, if people see precepts going up then what you've
just shown in your video there is that people do then
do something about it, get involved and do
If services are being moved from a unitary authority down to a
town or parish council, the town or parish council puts
the precept up but does the parents council as it
And if they don't then it's just an extra tax on everybody.
James, many of these parish councillors are
not elected, they are appointed and co-opted because nobody is
interested on sitting on some of these bodies.
Don't they need to be democratically accountable or done
If nobody is interested in standing, why have them?
There are some very good parish councils out
there and, let's be frank, there are some lousy ones as well.
And I think they have to stimulate interest.
What I would advise, if people are interested in their local
community then think about being a parish
Alex, briefly, we haven't got much time, Labour councils are often
passing duties on to these parish and town
councils, that's why the
Well that certainly hasn't happened in
Stockton, but some of bills have gone up.
I know Thornaby town council, they have the town hall to
look after in Thornaby and that proves very expensive.
For me, we need to help people understand more
what the small councils do because often what happens is your borough
councillors, your unitary authority councillors, get the blame for
increases put up by the small organisations.
Keep up-to-date by following me on Twitter.
Now, though, it's back to Andrew for the rest of the show.
Welcome back. Article 50, which triggers the beginning of Britain
leaving the European Union and start negotiations, is winding its way
through the Lords in this coming week. Tarzan has made an
intervention, let's just see the headline from the Mail on Sunday.
Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine, my fightback starts here, he is
going to defy Theresa May. I divide one Prime Minister over the poll
tax, I'm ready to defy this one in the Lords over Brexit. There we go,
that's going to happen this week. We will see how far he gets. I don't
think he will get very far, I don't think Loyalist Tory MPs and
Brexiteers are quaking in their boots at the prospect of a rebellion
led by Michael Heseltine. I sense that many Tory MPs are already
moving on to the next question about Brexit, and the discussion over how
much it will cost us to come out. The fact they are already debating
that suggests to me they feel things will go fairly smoothly in terms of
the legislation. When I spoke to the Labour leader in the Lords last week
on the daily politics, she said she was going to push hard for the kind
of amendments Lord has all-time is talking about and they would bring
that back to the Commons. But if the Commons pinged it back to the Lords
with the amendments taken out, she made it clear that was the end of
it. Is that right? That's about right. This is probably really a
large destruction. There will be to micro issues that come up in the
Lords, one is on the future of EU nationals, that could be voted on as
soon as this Wednesday, and then the main vote in the Lords on a week on
Tuesday, when there is this question of what sort of vote will MPs and
peers get at the end of the Brexit process and that is what has
all-time is talking about. He wants to make sure there are guarantees in
place. The kind of things peers are looking for are pretty moderate and
the Government have hinted they could deliver on both of them
already. But they are still not prepared... Amber Rudd said they
were not prepared... They may say yes we are going to do that but they
won't allow whatever that is to be enshrined in the legislation. The
question is whether we think this is dancing on the head of a pin. The
Government have already promised something in the House of Commons,
but will they write it down, I don't think that's the biggest problem in
the world. In a sense this is a great magicians trick by Theresa May
because it is not the most important thing. The most important thing in
Brexit is going on in those committees behind closed doors when
they are trying to work out what the next migration system is for Britain
and there are some interesting, indeed toxic proposals, but at the
moment Downing Street are happy to let us talk about the constitutional
propriety of what MPs are doing over the next eight days. It seems to me
the irony is that if we had a second chamber that can claim some kind of
democratic legitimacy, which the one we have cannot, it would be able to
cause the Government more trouble on this, it would be more robust.
Absolutely. I saw the interview we did with the Labour Leader of the
Lords, they are very conscious, of the fact they are not elected and
have limited powers. She was clear to you they would not impede the
timetable for triggering Article 50 so we might get a bit of theatre,
Michael Heseltine might deliver a brilliant speech. It is interesting
that Euroscepticism gun under Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party
but two offer senior ministers Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the
most prominent opponents now but they will change nothing at this
point. She will have the space to trigger Article 50 within her
timetable. Let's move on. Let me show you a picture tweeted by Nigel
Farage. That is Nigel Farage and a small
group of people having dinner, and within that small group of people is
the president of the United States, and it was taken in the last couple
of days. This would suggest that if he can command that amount of the
President's time in a small group of people, then he's actually rather
close to the president. Make no mistake about it, Nigel Farage is
now to and fro Washington more regularly than perhaps he is here.
Hopefully that LBC programme is recorded over in the state. He's not
only close to the president but to a series of people within the
administration. That relationship there is a remarkable one and one to
keep an eye on. Will the main government be tempted to tap into
that relationship at any time or is it just seething with anger? You can
feel a ripple of discontentment over this. We are in the middle of
negotiating the state visit and the sort of pomp and circumstance and
what kind of greeting Britain should give Donald Trump when he comes over
later in the year. There is a great deal of neurotic thought going into
what that should look like, but one of the most interesting things about
our relationship with Donald Trump is that there is a nervousness among
some Cabinet ministers that we are being seen to go too far, too fast
with the prospect of a trade deal. Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet
ministers, they worry we won't get a very good trade deal with the US and
we are tolerably placing a lot of stalled by it. When we see the kind
of deal they want to pitch with us there might be some pulling back and
that could be an awkward moment in terms of our relationship, and no
doubt Nigel at that term -- at that point will accuse the UK of doing
the dirty on Donald Trump. If there was a deal, would they get it
through the House of Commons? Nigel Farage is having dinner with the
president, not bad as a kind of lifestyle but he's politically
rootless, he won't be an MEP much longer so if you look at where is
his political base to build on this great time he's having, there is
one. Given that there is one I think he's just having a great time and it
isn't much more significant than that. No? There's a lot to be said
for having a great time. You are having a great time. Let's just
look, because of the dominance of the Government we kind of it nor
there are problems piling up, only what, ten days with the Budget to
go, piling up for Mrs May and her government. The business rates which
has alarmed a lot of Tories, this disability cuts which are really a
serious problem for the Government, and the desperate need for more
money for social care. There are other issues, there are problems
there and they involve spending money. Absolutely and some people
argue Theresa May has only one Monday and that is to deliver Brexit
but it is impossible as a Prime Minister to ignore everything else.
And she doesn't want to either. The bubbling issue of social care and
the NHS is the biggest single problem for her in the weeks and
months ahead, she has got to come up with something. And Mr Hammond will
have to loosen his belt a little bit. I think he will in relation to
the NHS, he didn't mention it in the Autumn Statement, which was
remarkable, and he cannot get away with not mentioning it this time. If
he mentions it, it has to be in a positive context in some way or
another and it is one example of many. She is both strong because she
is so far ahead in the opinion polls, but this in tray is one of
the most daunting a Prime Minister has faced in recent times I think.
Here is what will happen on Budget day, money will be more money,
magically found down the back of the Treasury sofa. The projections are
that he has wiggle room of about 12 billion. But look at the bills,
rebels involved in business rates suggest the Chancellor will have to
throw up ?2 billion at that problem. 3.7 billion is the potential cost of
this judgment about disability benefits. The Government will try to
find different ways of satisfying it but who knows. It will not popular.
I'm not sure they will throw money at the NHS, they want an interim
settlement on social care which will alleviate pressure on the NHS but
they feel... That's another couple of billion by the way. They feel in
the Treasury that the NHS has not delivered on what Simon Stevens
promised them. But here is the bigger problem for Philip Hammond,
he has two This year and he thinks the second one in the autumn is more
important because that is when people will feel the cost living
squeeze. The Daily Politics is back at noon
on BBC Two tomorrow. We'll be back here at
the same time next week. Remember - if it's Sunday,
it's the Sunday Politics.
Andrew Neil and Richard Moss are joined by Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, Ukip's Patrick O'Flynn, Swedish MP Laila Naraghi and Douglas Murray of the Henry Jackson Society. Sam Coates, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards are on the political panel.