26/02/2017 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


26/02/2017

Andrew Neil and Richard Moss are joined by Kezia Dugdale, Patrick O'Flynn, Swedish MP Laila Naraghi and Douglas Murray of the Henry Jackson Society.


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Transcript


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:43.:00:48.

Theresa May still has plenty on her plate,

:00:49.:00:48.

not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords.

:00:49.:00:51.

But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland,

:00:52.:00:52.

the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever.

:00:53.:00:54.

Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election,

:00:55.:00:57.

but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party

:00:58.:00:59.

The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live.

:01:00.:01:09.

You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden!

:01:10.:01:14.

And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact

:01:15.:01:17.

of migration on Sweden, but after riots in Stockholm this

:01:18.:01:20.

And here, full reaction from Cumbria to the Conservative by-election win.

:01:21.:01:23.

What does it mean for the rest of the North?

:01:24.:01:25.

And are our parish councils value for money?

:01:26.:01:27.

In London, will the rise in council tax in all but four local

:01:28.:01:33.

authorities be enough to alleviate the crisis in social care?

:01:34.:01:39.

And joining me for all of that, three journalists who I'm pleased

:01:40.:01:42.

to say have so far not been banned from the White House.

:01:43.:01:50.

I've tried banning them from this show repeatedly,

:01:51.:01:54.

but somehow they just keep getting past BBC security - it's Sam Coates,

:01:55.:01:57.

We have had two crucial by-elections, the results last

:01:58.:02:08.

Thursday night. It's now Sunday morning, where do they believe

:02:09.:02:12.

British politics? I think it leaves British politics looking as if it

:02:13.:02:16.

may go ahead without Ukip is a strong and robust force. It is

:02:17.:02:21.

difficult to see from where we are now how Ukip rebuilds into a

:02:22.:02:26.

credible vote winning operation. I think it looks unprofessional, the

:02:27.:02:31.

campaign they fought in Stoke was clearly winnable because the margin

:02:32.:02:35.

with which Labour held onto that seat was not an impressive one but

:02:36.:02:39.

they put forward arguably the wrong candidate, it was messy and it's

:02:40.:02:43.

hard to see where they go from here, particularly with the money problems

:02:44.:02:47.

they have and even Nigel Farage saying he's fed up of the party. If

:02:48.:02:53.

Isabel is right, if Ukip is no longer a major factor, you look at

:02:54.:03:00.

the state of Labour and the Lib Dems coming from a long way behind

:03:01.:03:05.

despite their local government by-election successes, Tories never

:03:06.:03:09.

more dominant. I think Theresa May is in a fascinating situation. She's

:03:10.:03:13.

the most powerful Prime Minister of modern times for now because she

:03:14.:03:19.

faces no confident, formidable opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher

:03:20.:03:24.

who in the 1980s, although she won landslides in the end, often looked

:03:25.:03:28.

like she was in trouble. She was inferred quite often in the build-up

:03:29.:03:34.

to the election. David Owen, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite

:03:35.:03:41.

often she was worried. At the moment Theresa May faces no formidable UK

:03:42.:03:46.

opposition. However, she is both strong and fragile because her

:03:47.:03:50.

agenda is Brexit, which I still think many have not got to grips

:03:51.:03:54.

with in terms of how complex and training and difficult it will be

:03:55.:04:00.

for her. Thatcher faced no equivalent to Brexit so she is both

:04:01.:04:05.

strong, formidably strong because of the wider UK political context, and

:04:06.:04:09.

very fragile. It is just when you think you have never been more

:04:10.:04:14.

dominant you are actually at the most dangerous, what can possibly go

:04:15.:04:19.

wrong? I think that the money of her MPs they haven't begun to think

:04:20.:04:22.

through the practicalities of Brexit and she does have a working majority

:04:23.:04:27.

of about 17 in the House of Commons so at any point she could be put

:04:28.:04:30.

under pressure from really opposition these days is done by the

:04:31.:04:34.

two wins inside the Conservative Party, either the 15 Europhiles or

:04:35.:04:41.

the bigger group of about 60 Brexiteers who have continued to

:04:42.:04:44.

operate as a united and disciplined force within the Conservative Party

:04:45.:04:49.

to get their agenda on the table. Either of those wings could be

:04:50.:04:52.

disappointed at any point in the next three and a half years and that

:04:53.:04:56.

would put her under pressure. I wouldn't completely rule out Ukip

:04:57.:05:02.

coming back. The reason Ukip lost in Stoke I think it's because at the

:05:03.:05:07.

moment Theresa May is delivering pretty much everything Ukip figures

:05:08.:05:13.

might want to see. We might find the phrase Brexit means Brexit quite

:05:14.:05:16.

anodyne but I think she is convincing people she will press

:05:17.:05:19.

ahead with their agenda and deliver the leave vote that people buy a

:05:20.:05:25.

slim majority voted for. Should that change, should there be talk of

:05:26.:05:29.

transition periods, shut the migration settlement not make people

:05:30.:05:33.

happy, then I think Ukip risks charging back up the centre ground

:05:34.:05:37.

and causing more problems in future. That could be a two year gap in

:05:38.:05:42.

which Ukip would have to survive. As I said, Ukip is on our agenda for

:05:43.:05:46.

today. Thursday was a big night

:05:47.:05:47.

for political obsessives like us, with not one but two

:05:48.:05:49.

significant by-elections, Ellie braved the wind and rain

:05:50.:05:53.

to bring you this report. The clouds had gathered,

:05:54.:06:01.

the winds blew at gale force. Was a change in the air, or just

:06:02.:06:06.

a weather system called Doris? Voters in Stoke-on-Trent

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were about to find out. It's here, a sports hall

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on a Thursday night that the country's media reckon

:06:15.:06:17.

is the true eye of the storm. Would Labour suffer a lightning

:06:18.:06:23.

strike to its very heart, or would the Ukip threat proved

:06:24.:06:26.

to be a damp squib? Everybody seems to think the result

:06:27.:06:28.

in Stoke-on-Trent would be close, just as they did 150-odd miles away

:06:29.:06:31.

in Copeland, where the Tories are counting on stealing another

:06:32.:06:35.

Labour heartland seat. Areas of high pressure in both

:06:36.:06:39.

places, and some strange sights. We knew this wasn't a normal

:06:40.:06:47.

by-election, and to prove it there is the rapper,

:06:48.:06:50.

Professor Green. Chart-toppers aside,

:06:51.:06:52.

winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade was announced first,

:06:53.:06:55.

where everyone was so excited the candidates didn't even make it

:06:56.:06:57.

onto the stage for the result. And I do hereby declare

:06:58.:07:01.

that the said Gareth Snell Nigel Farage has said that victory

:07:02.:07:04.

here in Stoke-on-Trent But Ukip's newish leader

:07:05.:07:12.

played down the defeat, insisting his party's

:07:13.:07:19.

time would come. Are you going to stand again

:07:20.:07:22.

as an MP or has this No doubt I will stand again,

:07:23.:07:28.

don't worry about that. The politics of hope beat

:07:29.:07:31.

the politics of fear. I think Ukip are the ones this

:07:32.:07:40.

weekend who have got But a few minutes later,

:07:41.:07:43.

it turned out Labour had Harrison, Trudy Lynn,

:07:44.:07:49.

the Conservative Party That was more than 2,000

:07:50.:07:53.

votes ahead of Labour. What has happened here tonight

:07:54.:08:04.

is a truly historic event. Labour were disappointed,

:08:05.:08:08.

but determined to be optimistic At a point when we're 15 to 18

:08:09.:08:10.

points behind in the polls... The Conservatives within 2000 votes

:08:11.:08:22.

I think is an incredible The morning after the night

:08:23.:08:26.

before, the losing parties were licking their wounds

:08:27.:08:30.

and their lips over breakfast. For years and years,

:08:31.:08:34.

Ukip was Nigel Farage, That has now changed,

:08:35.:08:37.

that era has gone. It's a new era, it is

:08:38.:08:44.

a second age for us. So that needs to be

:08:45.:08:47.

more fully embedded, it needs to be more defined,

:08:48.:08:52.

you know, and that will We have to continue to improve

:08:53.:08:54.

in seats where we have stood. As we have done here,

:08:55.:09:03.

we've improved on our 2015 result, that's what important,

:09:04.:09:06.

is that we are taking steps Can I be the first to come

:09:07.:09:08.

here today to congratulate you on being elected the new MP

:09:09.:09:13.

for Stoke on Trent Central. Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived

:09:14.:09:16.

in Stoke to welcome his newest MP. Not sure he's going to

:09:17.:09:19.

Copeland later though. Earlier in the day, the Labour

:09:20.:09:24.

leader had made clear he'd considered and discounted some

:09:25.:09:28.

theories about the party's Since you found out that you'd lost

:09:29.:09:30.

a seat to a governing party for the first time

:09:31.:09:36.

since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning

:09:37.:09:40.

looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question -

:09:41.:09:43.

could the problem actually be me? In the end it was the Conservatives

:09:44.:09:47.

who came out on top. No governing party has made

:09:48.:09:55.

a gain at a by-election With the self-styled people's army

:09:56.:09:57.

of Ukip halted in Stoke, and Labour's wash-out

:09:58.:10:03.

here in Copeland... There's little chance of rain

:10:04.:10:08.

on Theresa May's parade. In the wake of that loss in

:10:09.:10:19.

Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party has been meeting for its spring

:10:20.:10:22.

conference in the Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson

:10:23.:10:24.

warned delegates that unless Labour took the by-election defeat

:10:25.:10:29.

seriously, the party's devastation in Scotland could be repeated

:10:30.:10:31.

south of the border. Well, I'm joined now

:10:32.:10:35.

by the leader of Scottish Labour, Even after your party had lost

:10:36.:10:50.

Copeland to the Tories and with Labour now trailing 16 points in the

:10:51.:10:54.

UK polls, you claim to have every faith that Jeremy Corbyn would

:10:55.:10:59.

absolutely win the general election. What evidence can you bring to

:11:00.:11:06.

support that? There is no doubt the result in Copeland was disappointing

:11:07.:11:09.

for the Labour Party and I think it's a collective feeling for

:11:10.:11:13.

everyone within the Labour Party and I want to do what I can to turn

:11:14.:11:16.

around the fortunes of our party. That's what I've committed to do

:11:17.:11:19.

while I have been the Scottish Labour leader. This two years ago we

:11:20.:11:26.

were down the mines so to speak in terms of losing the faith of working

:11:27.:11:30.

class communities across the country, but we listened very hard

:11:31.:11:34.

to the message voters are sending and responded to it. That's what I'm

:11:35.:11:38.

committed to doing in Scotland and that's what Jeremy Corbyn is

:11:39.:11:44.

committed to doing UK wide. The latest polls put Labour at 14% in

:11:45.:11:49.

Scotland, the Tories at ten points ahead of you in Scotland, even

:11:50.:11:55.

Theresa May is more popular than Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will

:11:56.:12:01.

try again - why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn could win a general

:12:02.:12:05.

election? What I said when you are talking about Scotland is that I'm

:12:06.:12:09.

the leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I take responsibility for

:12:10.:12:14.

our policies here. Voters said very clearly after the Scottish

:12:15.:12:16.

Parliament election that they didn't have a clear enough sense of what we

:12:17.:12:20.

stood for so I have been advocating a very strong anti-austerity

:12:21.:12:24.

platform, coming up with ideas of how we can oppose the cuts and

:12:25.:12:28.

invest in our future. That is something Jeremy Corbyn also

:12:29.:12:31.

supports but I've also made it clear this weekend that we are opposed to

:12:32.:12:38.

a second independence referendum. I want to bring Scotland back together

:12:39.:12:41.

by focusing on the future and that's why I have been speaking about the

:12:42.:12:47.

federal solution for the UK. I know that Jeremy Corbyn shares that

:12:48.:12:50.

ambition because he is backing the plans for a people's Constitutional

:12:51.:12:54.

Convention. Yes, these are difficult times for the Scottish Labour Party

:12:55.:13:01.

and UK family, but I have a plan in place to turn things around. It will

:13:02.:13:07.

take time though. I'm still not sure why you are so sure the Labour party

:13:08.:13:11.

can win but let me come onto your plan. You want a UK wide

:13:12.:13:16.

Constitutional Convention and that lead to a new Federalist settlement.

:13:17.:13:22.

Is it the policy of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to

:13:23.:13:29.

carve England into federal regions? What we support at a UK wide level

:13:30.:13:33.

is the people's constitutional convention. I have been careful to

:13:34.:13:36.

prescribe what I think is in the best interests of Scotland but not

:13:37.:13:40.

to dictate to other parts of the UK what is good for them, that's the

:13:41.:13:45.

point of the people's constitutional convention. You heard Tom Watson say

:13:46.:13:50.

there has to be a UK wide conversation about power, who has it

:13:51.:13:53.

and how it is exercised across England. England hasn't been part of

:13:54.:13:57.

this devolution story over the last 20 years, it is something that

:13:58.:14:03.

happened between Scotland and London or Wales and London. No wonder

:14:04.:14:07.

people in England feel disenfranchised from that. What

:14:08.:14:10.

evidence can you bring to show there is any appetite in England for an

:14:11.:14:16.

English federal solution to England, to carve England into federal

:14:17.:14:21.

regions? Have you spoken to John Prescott about this? He might tell

:14:22.:14:24.

you some of the difficulties. There's not even a debate about that

:14:25.:14:30.

here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy. I speak to John Prescott regularly.

:14:31.:14:34.

What there is a debate about is the idea the world is changing so fast

:14:35.:14:38.

that globalisation is taking jobs away from communities in the

:14:39.:14:41.

north-east, that many working class communities feel left behind, that

:14:42.:14:46.

Westminster feels very far away and the politicians within it feel

:14:47.:14:50.

remote in part of the establishment. People are fed up with power being

:14:51.:14:53.

exercised somewhere else, that's where I think federalism comes in

:14:54.:14:57.

because it's about bringing power closer to people and in many ways

:14:58.:15:01.

it's forced on us because of Brexit. We know the United Kingdom is

:15:02.:15:09.

leaving the European Union so we have to talk about the repatriation

:15:10.:15:12.

of those powers from Brussels to Britain. I want many of those powers

:15:13.:15:15.

to go to the Scottish parliament but where should they go in the English

:15:16.:15:17.

context? It is not as things currently stand the policy of the

:15:18.:15:21.

English Labour Party to carve England into federal regions,

:15:22.:15:22.

correct? It is absolutely the policy of the

:15:23.:15:32.

UK Labour Party to support the people's Constitutional convention

:15:33.:15:36.

to examining these questions. I think it is really important. You're

:15:37.:15:41.

promising the Scottish people a federal solution, and you have not

:15:42.:15:45.

even squared your own party for a federal solution in England. That is

:15:46.:15:50.

not true. The UK Labour Party is united on this. I am going to

:15:51.:15:53.

Cardiff next month to meet with Carwyn Jones and various leaders.

:15:54.:15:58.

United on a federal solution? You know as well as I know it is not

:15:59.:16:02.

united on a federal solution. We will have a conversation about power

:16:03.:16:07.

in this country. It is not united on that

:16:08.:16:30.

issue? This is the direction of travel. It is what you heard

:16:31.:16:34.

yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom Watson, when you hear from people

:16:35.:16:36.

like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle City Council and Labour's Local

:16:37.:16:39.

Government Association. There is an appetite for talking about power.

:16:40.:16:41.

Talking is one thing. We need to have this conversation across the

:16:42.:16:43.

whole of the United Kingdom, to have a reformed United Kingdom. It is a

:16:44.:16:45.

conversation you're offering Scotland, not the policy. Let's come

:16:46.:16:48.

onto the labour made of London. He was in power for your conference. He

:16:49.:16:50.

wrote in the record yesterday, there is no difference between Scottish

:16:51.:16:53.

nationalism and racism. Would you like this opportunity to distance

:16:54.:16:56.

yourself from that absurd claim? I think that Sadiq Khan was very clear

:16:57.:17:01.

yesterday that he was not accusing the SNP of racism. What he was

:17:02.:17:05.

saying clearly is that nationalism by its very nature divides people

:17:06.:17:10.

and communities. That is what I said in my speech yesterday. I am fed up

:17:11.:17:14.

living in a divided and fractured country and society. Our politics is

:17:15.:17:19.

forcing is constantly to pick sides, whether you're a no, leave a remain,

:17:20.:17:24.

it brings out the worst in our politicians and politics. All the

:17:25.:17:28.

consensus we find in the grey areas is lost. That is why am standing

:17:29.:17:33.

under a banner that together we are stronger. We have to come up with

:17:34.:17:47.

ideas and focus on the future. That is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He

:17:48.:17:51.

said quite clearly in the Daily Record yesterday, and that the last

:17:52.:17:54.

minute he adapted his speech to your conference yesterday, to try and

:17:55.:17:56.

reduce the impact, that there was no difference between Scottish

:17:57.:17:59.

nationalism and racism. Your colleague, and Sarwar, said that

:18:00.:18:02.

even after he had tried to introduce the caveats, all forms of

:18:03.:18:06.

nationalism rely on creating eyes and them. Let's call it for what it

:18:07.:18:14.

is. So you are implying that the Scottish Nationalists are racist.

:18:15.:18:18.

Would you care to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I utterly

:18:19.:18:22.

refute that that is what Sadiq Khan said. I would never suggest that the

:18:23.:18:28.

SNP are an inherently racist party. That does is a disservice. He did

:18:29.:18:34.

not see it. What he did say, however, is that nationalism is

:18:35.:18:38.

divisive. You know that better than anyone. I see your Twitter account.

:18:39.:18:42.

Regularly your attack for the job you do as a journalist. Politics in

:18:43.:18:48.

Scotland is divided on. I do not want to revisit that independence

:18:49.:18:53.

question again for that reason. As leader of the Labour Party, I want

:18:54.:18:56.

to bring our country back together, appeal to people who voted yes and

:18:57.:19:02.

no. That banner, together we are stronger, that is where the answers

:19:03.:19:05.

lie in defaulters can be found. If in response to the Mayor of London,

:19:06.:19:10.

your colleague says, let's call it out for what it is, what is he

:19:11.:19:15.

referring to if he is not implying that national symbol is racist? --

:19:16.:19:23.

and that nationalism is racist? He is saying that it leads to divisive

:19:24.:19:27.

politics. The Labour Party has always advocated that together we

:19:28.:19:31.

are stronger. Saying something is divisive is very different from

:19:32.:19:35.

saying something is racist. That is what the Mayor of London said. That

:19:36.:19:39.

is what your colleague was referring to. He did not. You would really

:19:40.:19:44.

struggle to quote that from the Mayor of London. He talked about

:19:45.:19:50.

being divided by race. What does that mean? I think he was very clear

:19:51.:19:56.

that he was talking about divided politics. There is an appetite the

:19:57.:20:00.

length and breadth of the country to end that divisive politics. That is

:20:01.:20:04.

what I stand for, focusing on the future, bringing people back

:20:05.:20:08.

together, concentrating on what the economy might look like in 20 years'

:20:09.:20:12.

time in coming up with ideas to tackle it today. Thank you for

:20:13.:20:14.

joining us. Thursday's win for Labour

:20:15.:20:15.

in Stoke-on-Trent Central gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn,

:20:16.:20:17.

but for Ukip leader and defeated Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall

:20:18.:20:20.

there were no consolation prizes. I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's

:20:21.:20:22.

principal political Welcome to the programme. Good

:20:23.:20:33.

morning. How long will Paul Nuttall survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks,

:20:34.:20:36.

months? You are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip

:20:37.:20:42.

was formed in 1993 with the express purpose, much mocked, of getting

:20:43.:20:47.

Britain out of the European Union. Under the brilliant leadership of

:20:48.:20:50.

Nigel Farage, we were crucial in forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to

:20:51.:20:54.

make a referendum promise he did not want to give. With our friends in

:20:55.:21:00.

Fort leave and other organisations. Mac we know that. Get to the answer.

:21:01.:21:06.

We helped to win that referendum. The iteration of Ukip at the moment

:21:07.:21:11.

that we're in, the primary purpose, we are the guard dog of Brexit.

:21:12.:21:16.

Viewed through that prism, the Stoke by-election was a brilliant success.

:21:17.:21:21.

A brilliant success? We had the Tory candidate that had pumped out

:21:22.:21:26.

publicity for Remain, for Cameron Bradley, preaching the gospel of

:21:27.:21:30.

Brexit. We had a Labour candidate and we know what he really felt

:21:31.:21:35.

about Brexit, preaching the Gospel according to Brexit. You lost. Well

:21:36.:21:37.

the by-election was going on, we had the Labour Party in the House of

:21:38.:21:54.

Commons pass the idea of trickling Article 50 by a landslide. Are

:21:55.:21:56.

passionate thing, the thing that 35,000 Ukip members care about the

:21:57.:21:59.

most, it is an extraordinary achievement. I am very proud. What

:22:00.:22:01.

would you have described as victory as? If we could have got Paul

:22:02.:22:04.

Nuttall into the House of Commons, that would have been a fantastic

:22:05.:22:07.

cherry on the top. Losing was an extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip

:22:08.:22:13.

supporters the Stoke was winnable, but Paul Nuttall's campaign was

:22:14.:22:19.

marred by controversy, Tory voters refuse to vote tactically for Ukip

:22:20.:22:27.

to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr Nuttall is to blame for not winning

:22:28.:22:31.

what was a winnable seat? I do not see that at all. This is

:22:32.:22:35.

counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn did do one thing that made it more

:22:36.:22:40.

difficult for us to win. Fantasy. That was to take Labour into a

:22:41.:22:45.

Brexit position formerly. Just over 50 Labour MPs had voted against

:22:46.:22:50.

triggering Article 50. In political terms, we have intimidated the

:22:51.:22:54.

Labour Party into backing Brexit. How much good is it doing you? It

:22:55.:22:56.

comes to the heart of the problem your party faces.

:22:57.:23:13.

You're struggling to win Tory Eurosceptic voters. For the moment,

:23:14.:23:15.

they seem happy with Theresa May. Stoke shows you're not winning

:23:16.:23:18.

Labour Brexit voters either. If you cannot get the solution Tolisso

:23:19.:23:20.

labour, where does your Broad come from? In terms of the by-election,

:23:21.:23:22.

it came very early for Paul. I'm talking about the future. We have a

:23:23.:23:25.

future agenda, and ideological argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour

:23:26.:23:30.

Party, which is wedded to the notion of global citizenship and does not

:23:31.:23:34.

recognise the nation state. We know he spent Christmas sitting around

:23:35.:23:38.

campfires with Mexican Marxist dreaming of global government. We

:23:39.:23:42.

believe in the nation state. We believe that the patriotic working

:23:43.:23:45.

class vote will be receptive to that. Your Broad went down by 9% in

:23:46.:23:52.

Cortland. In Copeland we were squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable

:23:53.:23:57.

to squeeze the Tories, who are on a high. Our agenda is that social

:23:58.:24:03.

solidarity is important but we arrange it in this country by nation

:24:04.:24:06.

and community. We want an immigration system that is not only

:24:07.:24:11.

reducing... We know what you want. I do not think people do. You had a

:24:12.:24:16.

whole by-election to tell people and they did not vote for you and. When

:24:17.:24:20.

Nigel Farage said it was fundamental that you were winner in Stoke, he

:24:21.:24:25.

was wrong? Nigel chooses his own words. I would not rewrite them. It

:24:26.:24:33.

would be a massive advantage to Ukip to have a leader in the House of

:24:34.:24:36.

Commons in time to reply to the budget, Prime Minister's questions

:24:37.:24:40.

and all of that. But we have taken the strategic view that we will

:24:41.:24:43.

fight the Labour Party for the working class vote. It is also true

:24:44.:24:47.

that the Conservatives will make a pitch for the working class vote

:24:48.:24:51.

might as well. All three parties have certain advantages and

:24:52.:24:56.

disadvantages. As part of that page, Nigel Farage said that your leader,

:24:57.:25:00.

Paul Nuttall, should have taken a clear, by which I assume he meant

:25:01.:25:05.

tough, line on immigration. Do you agree? He took a tough line on

:25:06.:25:10.

immigration. He developed that idea at our party conference in the

:25:11.:25:15.

spring. Nigel Farage did not think so? Nigel Farage made his speech

:25:16.:25:18.

before Paul Nuttall made his speech. He said this in the aftermath of the

:25:19.:25:25.

result. Once we have freedom to control and Borders, Paul wants to

:25:26.:25:31.

set up an immigration system that includes an aptitude test, do you

:25:32.:25:34.

have skills that the British economy needs, but also, and attitudes test,

:25:35.:25:41.

do you subscribe to core British values such as gender equality and

:25:42.:25:46.

freedom of expression? We will be making these arguments. It is

:25:47.:25:49.

certainly true that Paul's campaign was thrown off course by,

:25:50.:25:54.

particularly something that we knew the Labour Party had been preparing

:25:55.:26:00.

to run, the smear on the untruths, the implications about Hillsborough.

:26:01.:26:02.

If you knew you should have anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps

:26:03.:26:09.

to bankroll your party, he said that Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the

:26:10.:26:13.

Tory cabal in Europe, by which he means Douglas Carswell, Neil

:26:14.:26:16.

Hamilton. Should they be stripped of their membership? Of course not. As

:26:17.:26:22.

far as I knew, Alan Banks was a member of the Conservative Party

:26:23.:26:26.

formally. I do not know who this Tory cabal is supposed to be. He

:26:27.:26:30.

says that your party is more like a jumble sale than a political party.

:26:31.:26:34.

He says that the party should make him chairman or they will work. What

:26:35.:26:40.

do you see to that? He has made that statement several times over many

:26:41.:26:43.

months, including if you do not throw out your only MP. Douglas

:26:44.:26:48.

Carswell has managed to win twice under Ukip colours. Should Tibi

:26:49.:26:52.

chairman? I think we have an excellent young chairman at the

:26:53.:26:59.

moment. He is doing a good job. The idea that Leave.EU was as smooth

:27:00.:27:04.

running brilliant machine, that does not sit with the facts as I

:27:05.:27:07.

understand them. Suzanne Evans says it would be no great loss for Ukip

:27:08.:27:12.

if Mr Banks walked out, severed his ties and took his money elsewhere.

:27:13.:27:17.

Is she right. I am always happy people who want to give money and

:27:18.:27:20.

support your party want to stay in the party. The best donors donate

:27:21.:27:25.

and do not seek to dictate. If they are experts in certain fields,

:27:26.:27:30.

people should listen to their views but to have a daughter telling the

:27:31.:27:33.

party leader who should be party chairman, that is a nonstarter. You

:27:34.:27:38.

have described your existing party chairman is excellent. He said it

:27:39.:27:43.

could be 20 years before Ukip wins by-election. Is he being too

:27:44.:27:48.

optimistic? There is a general election coming up in the years'

:27:49.:27:52.

time. We will be aiming to win seats in that. Before that, we will be the

:27:53.:27:57.

guard dog for Brexit, to make sure this extraordinary achievement of a

:27:58.:28:02.

little party... You are guard dog without a kennel, you cannot get

:28:03.:28:06.

seat? We're keeping the big establishment parties to do the will

:28:07.:28:11.

of the people. If we achieve nothing else at all, that will be a

:28:12.:28:14.

magnificent achievement. Thank you very much.

:28:15.:28:16.

Sweden isn't somewhere we talk about often

:28:17.:28:18.

should because this week it was pulled into

:28:19.:28:21.

the global spotlight, thanks

:28:22.:28:22.

Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked for referring to an incident that

:28:23.:28:31.

had occurred last night in Sweden as a result of the country's open

:28:32.:28:34.

Critics were quick to point out that no such incident had occurred

:28:35.:28:38.

and Mr Trump later clarified on Twitter and he was talking

:28:39.:28:41.

about a report he had watched on Fox News.

:28:42.:28:44.

But as if to prove he was onto something,

:28:45.:28:46.

next day a riot broke out in a Stockholm suburb

:28:47.:28:49.

with a large migrant population, following unrest in such areas

:28:50.:28:51.

So what has been Sweden's experience of migration?

:28:52.:29:01.

In 2015, a record 162,000 people claimed asylum there, the second

:29:02.:29:04.

That number dropped to 29,000 in 2016 after the country introduced

:29:05.:29:11.

border restrictions and stopped offering permanent

:29:12.:29:12.

Tensions have risen, along with claims of links to crime,

:29:13.:29:20.

although official statistics do not provide evidence of a refugee driven

:29:21.:29:23.

Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump, claiming this week that migrants

:29:24.:29:31.

have led to a dramatic rise in sexual offences.

:29:32.:29:34.

Although the country does have the highest reported

:29:35.:29:36.

rate of rape in Europe, Swedish authorities say recent rises

:29:37.:29:39.

were due to changes to how rape and sex crimes are recorded.

:29:40.:29:44.

Aside from the issue of crime, Sweden has struggled

:29:45.:29:46.

Levels of inequality between natives and migrants when it comes

:29:47.:29:52.

Unemployment rates are three times higher for foreign-born workers

:29:53.:29:55.

We're joined now by Laila Naraghi, she's a Swedish MP from the

:29:56.:30:08.

governing Social Democratic Party, and by the author and

:30:09.:30:10.

The Swedish political establishment was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks,

:30:11.:30:26.

pointing to a riot that hadn't taken place, then a few nights later

:30:27.:30:30.

serious riots did break out in a largely migrant suburb of Stockholm

:30:31.:30:35.

so he wasn't far out, was he? I think he was far out because he is

:30:36.:30:39.

misleading the public with how he uses these statistics. I think it is

:30:40.:30:45.

important to remember that the violence has decreased in Sweden for

:30:46.:30:48.

the past 20 years and research shows there is no evidence that indicate

:30:49.:30:52.

that immigration leads to crime and so I think it is far out. The social

:30:53.:31:00.

unrest in these different areas is not because of their ethical

:31:01.:31:04.

backgrounds of these people living there but more about social economic

:31:05.:31:11.

reasons. OK, no evidence migrants are responsible for any kind of

:31:12.:31:15.

crime? This story reminds me after what happened to the Charlie Hebdo

:31:16.:31:22.

attacks in Paris when also a Fox News commentator said something that

:31:23.:31:27.

was outlandish about Paris and the Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox

:31:28.:31:31.

News, saying you are making our city look bad. It's a bit like that

:31:32.:31:36.

because the truth on this lies between Donald Trump on the Swedish

:31:37.:31:41.

authorities on this. Sweden and Swedish government is very reluctant

:31:42.:31:46.

to admit any downsides of its own migration policy and particularly

:31:47.:31:49.

the migration it hard in 2015 but there are very obvious downsides

:31:50.:31:55.

because Sweden is not a country that needs a non-skilled labour force

:31:56.:32:01.

which doesn't speak Swedish. What was raised as the matter of

:32:02.:32:06.

evidence, what is the evidence? First of all if I can say so the

:32:07.:32:11.

rape statistics in Sweden that have been cited are familiar with the

:32:12.:32:14.

rape statistics across other countries that have seen similar

:32:15.:32:18.

forms of migration. Danish authorities and the Norwegian

:32:19.:32:23.

authorities have recorded a similar thing. It is not done by ethnicity

:32:24.:32:28.

so we don't know. And this is part of the problem. It is again a lot of

:32:29.:32:34.

lies and rumours going about. When it is about for example rape, it is

:32:35.:32:39.

difficult to compare the statistics because in Sweden for example many

:32:40.:32:44.

crimes that in other countries are labelled as bodily harm or assault

:32:45.:32:49.

are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also how it is counted because if a woman

:32:50.:32:54.

goes to the police and reports that her husband or boyfriend has raped

:32:55.:33:02.

her, and done it every night for one year, in Sweden that is counted as

:33:03.:33:08.

365 offences. Something is going wrong, I look at the recent news

:33:09.:33:12.

from Sweden. Six Afghan child refugees committed suicide in the

:33:13.:33:15.

last six months, unemployment among recent migrants now five times

:33:16.:33:22.

higher than among non-migrants. We have seen gang violence in Malmo

:33:23.:33:28.

where a British child was killed by a grenade, rioting in Stockholm.

:33:29.:33:32.

Police in Sweden say there are 53 areas of the country where it is now

:33:33.:33:35.

dangerous to patrol. Something has gone wrong. Let me get back to what

:33:36.:33:42.

I think is the core of this debate if I may and that is the right for

:33:43.:33:47.

people fleeing war and political persecution to seek asylum, that is

:33:48.:33:51.

a human right. In Sweden we don't think we can do everything, but we

:33:52.:33:56.

want to live up to our obligation, every country has an obligation to

:33:57.:34:00.

receive asylum seekers. But you have changed your policy on that because

:34:01.:34:06.

having taken 163,001 year alone, you have then closed your borders, I

:34:07.:34:10.

think very wisely, closed the border which means 10,000 people per day at

:34:11.:34:15.

one point were walking from Denmark in to Malmo, you rightly changed

:34:16.:34:20.

that so he realised whatever ones aspirations in terms of asylum, it

:34:21.:34:23.

sometimes meets reality and Sweden is meeting the reality of this.

:34:24.:34:30.

Let's respond to that. We are not naive, we know we cannot do

:34:31.:34:33.

everything but we want to try to do our share as we think other

:34:34.:34:37.

countries also need to do their share. But let me say that, if you

:34:38.:34:42.

look at what the World Economic Forum is saying about our country

:34:43.:34:45.

they show we are in the top of many rankings, the best country to live

:34:46.:34:49.

in, to age in, to have children in, to start into -- to start

:34:50.:34:58.

enterprise. Why have you not been so good at integrating migrants? The

:34:59.:35:04.

unemployment rate is five times higher among migrants than

:35:05.:35:09.

non-migrants and that's the highest ratio of any country in the EU and

:35:10.:35:13.

the OECD, why have you not been able to integrate the people you have

:35:14.:35:19.

brought in for humanitarian reasons? I'm sure there are things we can do

:35:20.:35:23.

much better of course but if you look for example at the immigration

:35:24.:35:27.

that came in the 90s from the Balkans, they are well integrated

:35:28.:35:32.

and contributing to our society. They are starting enterprises and

:35:33.:35:34.

working in different fields of society, and they help our country.

:35:35.:35:42.

Why have they not got jobs, the migrants that have come in? It takes

:35:43.:35:49.

time. In the 90s we managed it and I'm sure we can do it again. Can I

:35:50.:35:54.

put this into some context, it is clear Sweden has got problems as a

:35:55.:35:57.

result of the number of migrants that come in, whether it is as bad

:35:58.:36:02.

as Mr Trump and others make out is another matter, but perhaps I can

:36:03.:36:06.

put it into context. Malmo, which has been at the centre of many of

:36:07.:36:10.

these migrant problems, its homicide rate is three per hundred thousand.

:36:11.:36:17.

Chicago, 28 per 100,000. It may have problems but they are not huge. No,

:36:18.:36:23.

they are pretty huge and I think they will grow. The Balkan refugees

:36:24.:36:28.

into Sweden in the 90s did bring a lot of problems and Sweden did for

:36:29.:36:32.

the first time see serious ethnic gang rivalries. There was an upsurge

:36:33.:36:36.

in gang-related violence that has gone on since. The situation in

:36:37.:36:42.

Malmo in particular is exaggerated by some people, there's no doubt

:36:43.:36:46.

about that, I have been there many times and it is undoubtedly

:36:47.:36:49.

exaggerated by some, it is also vastly unpersuaded by the Swedish

:36:50.:36:55.

authorities. -- understated. In 2010, one in ten Jews in Malmo

:36:56.:37:06.

registered some form of attack on them. It got so bad that in 2010

:37:07.:37:15.

people offered to escort Jews... You have had a good say and I have got

:37:16.:37:19.

to be fair here, what do you say to that, Laila Naraghi? There are

:37:20.:37:26.

people trying to frame our country in a certain way to push their own

:37:27.:37:30.

agenda. I regret that President Trump is trying to slander our

:37:31.:37:36.

country. But what about the specific point on Malmo? If you speak to

:37:37.:37:40.

people in Malmo and also to different congregations, they say

:37:41.:37:44.

they are working together with the authorities to improve this. I say

:37:45.:37:48.

again, there are a lot of people trying to spread rumours and lies.

:37:49.:37:53.

Your situation is very like the situation we had in Britain when we

:37:54.:37:58.

have these situations in Rotherham and elsewhere. 1400 girls were raped

:37:59.:38:03.

in Rotherham before police even admitted it was going on. That

:38:04.:38:07.

happened in Britain in the last decade, a similar phenomenon. An

:38:08.:38:11.

upsurge in particularly sexual and other forms of violence and then

:38:12.:38:15.

total denial by an entire political class is now something that is

:38:16.:38:20.

happening in Sweden. I see it in Swedish authorities and the denial

:38:21.:38:23.

that comes up and the desire to laugh and dismiss Trump but he's not

:38:24.:38:28.

answer nothing and that's a painful thing for any society to want to

:38:29.:38:35.

admit to. There are number of Swedes who think the establishment is

:38:36.:38:42.

covering up the true statistics, that you don't break crime down by

:38:43.:38:46.

ethnic crimes, people are suspicious of the centre-left and centre-right

:38:47.:38:52.

parties now in Sweden. There is no denial and no cover-up. This is what

:38:53.:38:55.

I'm speaking about when I say people are trying to frame it in a certain

:38:56.:38:59.

way. The social unrest is not because of the ethnical background

:39:00.:39:03.

of the people living there but rather because of different

:39:04.:39:07.

socioeconomics conditions. There is no research that shows

:39:08.:39:13.

immigration... But you don't do the research into it. Swedish

:39:14.:39:16.

authorities deliberately ensure you cannot carry out such research and

:39:17.:39:20.

after the attacks in Cologne in 2015 it was the first time then that the

:39:21.:39:24.

Swedish authorities and press admitted that similar sexual

:39:25.:39:28.

molestation have been going on for years in Sweden. Is it right to

:39:29.:39:34.

think, given the problem is maybe not as bad as many people make out

:39:35.:39:39.

but clearly problems, given these problems, is the age of mass asylum

:39:40.:39:44.

seeking for Sweden over? You have cut the numbers by 80% coming in

:39:45.:39:49.

last year compared with 2015, is it over while you concentrate on

:39:50.:39:54.

getting right the people that you have there already? We want to do

:39:55.:39:58.

our share, we have done a lot and now we are concentrating of course

:39:59.:40:01.

on integration and making sure people get a job, and also

:40:02.:40:15.

on big welfare investments because it's important to remember that for

:40:16.:40:18.

eight years Sweden were governed by a government that prioritised big

:40:19.:40:20.

tax cuts instead of investment in welfare. It may just not work. I am

:40:21.:40:24.

grateful to you both, we have to leave it there.

:40:25.:40:25.

It's coming up to 11:40am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:40:26.:40:28.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:40:29.:40:30.

the Week Ahead, when we'll be asking if the Government is facing defeat

:40:31.:40:36.

Hello, and a warm welcome to your local part of the show.

:40:37.:40:46.

We'll be asking what that historic Conservative victory in Copeland

:40:47.:40:48.

tells us about the state of the main parties in Cumbria and

:40:49.:40:51.

My guests this week are the leader of Cumbria County

:40:52.:40:59.

Council's Conservative group, a man who campaigned in Copeland,

:41:00.:41:01.

Mr James Airey, Ukip's Euro MP for the North

:41:02.:41:04.

East, Jonathan Arnott, who spent a lot of time in Stoke,

:41:05.:41:06.

and in our Middlesbrough studio Stockton North MP Alex Cunningham.

:41:07.:41:08.

Also coming up, the cost is rocketing and some it is

:41:09.:41:11.

said of incomplete disarray - are our parish councils

:41:12.:41:13.

And Labour ended up making history but

:41:14.:41:18.

An eight point increase in the Conservative vote delivered

:41:19.:41:24.

to the Tories a seat they hadn't won since the 1930s.

:41:25.:41:27.

No surprise, then, that by Friday lunchtime the Prime

:41:28.:41:29.

Minister was in West Cumbria to celebrate the result with the

:41:30.:41:31.

This is an astounding victory for the Conservative Party but also for

:41:32.:41:40.

You know, Labour have held this seat since the 1930s.

:41:41.:41:46.

A party in Government hasn't won a by-election from the

:41:47.:41:51.

opposition and a seat held by the opposition for 35 years.

:41:52.:41:59.

Labour support dropped by 5% despite a fiercely fought campaign

:42:00.:42:01.

on Brexit and local NHS services, but supporters refused to blame

:42:02.:42:07.

-- the threats to local NHS services.

:42:08.:42:16.

It certainly isn't Jeremy Corbyn's fault.

:42:17.:42:19.

Jeremy Corbyn's been the labour of the Labour Party

:42:20.:42:21.

And Jeremy didn't, certainly, as far as I was

:42:22.:42:24.

concerned, he didn't crop up on the doorstep

:42:25.:42:26.

But the party wasn't the only loser from the Copeland contest.

:42:27.:42:30.

Ukip's suffered its worst by-election performance

:42:31.:42:31.

Well, a bit disappointing really, but I think there's probably a bit

:42:32.:42:35.

of tactical voting going on here because the media was reporting it

:42:36.:42:38.

was a two horse race so I think people have

:42:39.:42:40.

And people also think they've got Brexit so I think

:42:41.:42:45.

they've probably gone back to their original parties

:42:46.:42:46.

when they voted for Ukip to get the referendum, possibly.

:42:47.:42:51.

So this is how the political map of the county now looks

:42:52.:42:54.

after the loss of Copeland, with Labour MPs in

:42:55.:42:56.

Workington and Barrow and conservatives in Carlisle and

:42:57.:42:58.

West and Lonsdale also held of course by

:42:59.:43:03.

And as for those pro-Remain Liberal Democrats,

:43:04.:43:06.

therefore it actually went up in Copeland,

:43:07.:43:08.

as it has done in every by-election since Brexit.

:43:09.:43:10.

Let's assess the significance of all that now with my guests.

:43:11.:43:13.

Alex Cunningham, in our Middlesbrough studio, some

:43:14.:43:15.

people blaming Jeremy Corbyn for this result, some blaming Tony

:43:16.:43:18.

Blair, some blaming people like yourselves who resigned

:43:19.:43:21.

in the summer from the front bench, obviously you've come back now.

:43:22.:43:25.

What, in your view, is behind the loss of this seat?

:43:26.:43:28.

Well, I mean, it's very disappointing what happened there.

:43:29.:43:31.

I thought Gillian fought a fantastic campaign and did extremely well.

:43:32.:43:34.

However, I think the people of Copeland wanted to send the Labour

:43:35.:43:37.

Party a message and I just hope that we can take all that on board,

:43:38.:43:44.

get stuck in and make sure that we take

:43:45.:43:46.

our message of social justice on the NHS and

:43:47.:43:48.

everything else back to the

:43:49.:43:50.

people again and convince them that we are the party of the future.

:43:51.:43:53.

And I also hope that when the Prime Minister

:43:54.:43:55.

was there she actually confirmed to the people of West

:43:56.:43:57.

Cumberland that their health service is safe there,

:43:58.:43:59.

But you think they were sending a message.

:44:00.:44:05.

What message do you think they were sending to you?

:44:06.:44:08.

I think they were sending us a message that we've been a bit

:44:09.:44:11.

out of touch of late, that some of our

:44:12.:44:13.

policies may not be aligned to theirs.

:44:14.:44:17.

But also those issues around the support for the

:44:18.:44:19.

Jeremy made it clear, I made it clear on the doorstep as

:44:20.:44:23.

well, that we were very much omitted to that industry.

:44:24.:44:30.

Nobody is going to throw away thousands of well-paid

:44:31.:44:35.

jobs and I think it is important that we continue to try to get that

:44:36.:44:39.

message across, that we are pro-nuclear, we believe in an energy

:44:40.:44:41.

mix, and we believe in all the jobs that are there in career.

:44:42.:44:44.

And Jeremy Corbyn's part in this - was he an asset?

:44:45.:44:48.

Jeremy 's name was mentioned to me on the doorstep a few times.

:44:49.:44:51.

A few people were not happy with his leadership

:44:52.:44:53.

and that is something for

:44:54.:44:54.

him to reflect on and the rest of us as well.

:44:55.:44:57.

Well, we may again come back to that.

:44:58.:44:59.

Jonathan Arnott, there was a significant drop in the Ukip

:45:00.:45:01.

Slipping into fourth, on top of what happened in Stoke,

:45:02.:45:04.

A bad night for your party, wasn't it?

:45:05.:45:08.

Yeah, I mean, I think we probably, hand on heart, expected it would be

:45:09.:45:11.

difficult for us in Copeland simply because we've got a seat which is

:45:12.:45:14.

being fiercely fought by two political juggernauts, the Labour

:45:15.:45:16.

It's always going to be difficult for a

:45:17.:45:19.

party with Ukip's resources to avoid getting squeezed and afraid that's

:45:20.:45:22.

Obviously, not the MP for Stoke, as it turned out.

:45:23.:45:31.

You backed him for the leadership very strongly,

:45:32.:45:33.

After all that scorn on with the claims and

:45:34.:45:38.

counterclaims about Hillsborough, is he still the right leader for

:45:39.:45:40.

What happened with Hillsborough, to be

:45:41.:45:43.

absolutely clear, Paul is someone who was at Hillsborough, he was 12

:45:44.:45:48.

years old at the time, he was there with family

:45:49.:45:53.

and with close personal friends, and he did know somebody

:45:54.:45:56.

What has happened is that somebody has put up

:45:57.:46:01.

on his website, without it being fully checked, a story where they

:46:02.:46:07.

have effectively conflated those two things.

:46:08.:46:08.

And that is something that was done over five years ago, so I

:46:09.:46:14.

completely understand it has been damaging, there has been

:46:15.:46:16.

An error was made many years ago and it's time

:46:17.:46:23.

to draw a line under that and move on.

:46:24.:46:25.

James Airey, obviously this was a good win for

:46:26.:46:32.

the Conservatives but it wasn't the most glorious campaign, was it?

:46:33.:46:34.

The visit by the Prime Minister, not the

:46:35.:46:36.

one we saw on Friday, but the one during the campaign, refusal to give

:46:37.:46:39.

straight answers about the West Cumberland hospitals Alex Cunningham

:46:40.:46:42.

referred to was a bit of a PR own-goal.

:46:43.:46:44.

So did you win despite the concerns over the NHS?

:46:45.:46:46.

What we did was fight a very positive campaign

:46:47.:46:48.

and it is a tremendous result, let's not get away from that.

:46:49.:46:51.

The last time a governing party won a

:46:52.:46:53.

by-election it was back in 1982 when Michael Foot

:46:54.:46:55.

led the Labour Party, and I'm not going to make any

:46:56.:46:58.

comparisons between Jeremy Corbyn and Michael That.

:46:59.:47:07.

We won the campaign because we had an eight

:47:08.:47:12.

excellent local candidate in Trudy Harrison,

:47:13.:47:14.

who worked her socks off, she had a strong, positive campaign

:47:15.:47:16.

that clearly set out what you wanted to achieve for the people of

:47:17.:47:19.

Copeland and it was a negative campaign of Labour that really,

:47:20.:47:22.

We always thought it was going to be close but it was an

:47:23.:47:26.

outstanding victory and Labour did themselves no favours by running

:47:27.:47:29.

But now Trudy Harrison has to deliver on those

:47:30.:47:32.

And over the hospital, whatever she said, the

:47:33.:47:35.

Prime Minister has really failed to say that she will step in to save

:47:36.:47:38.

It could be a very short honeymoon period if those services move.

:47:39.:47:42.

Trudy Harrison could do nothing about it.

:47:43.:47:44.

I know that Trudy Harrison will do

:47:45.:47:45.

her absolute utmost to make sure that local

:47:46.:47:47.

services are returned in

:47:48.:47:49.

Whitehaven Hospital, and that is key for us all.

:47:50.:47:51.

As a Cumbrian Conservative politician, let me put

:47:52.:47:54.

it straight on the record - we support all the local NHS services.

:47:55.:47:57.

That's not the message coming from Downing Street.

:47:58.:47:59.

They were much more equivocal about it and that is going

:48:00.:48:02.

to be a problem if Trudy Harrison can't deliver, because at the top

:48:03.:48:05.

level of Government they are not interested.

:48:06.:48:10.

Trudy has had the Prime Minister up visiting Cumbria straight away.

:48:11.:48:12.

She is going to be talking to trees in May about the

:48:13.:48:15.

That's not forget it was a very costly PFI, huge financial burden,

:48:16.:48:28.

brought in under a Labour Government that caused many of those

:48:29.:48:30.

What we actually need is a Prime Minister who will

:48:31.:48:35.

actually commit to the health service in the West Cumberland.

:48:36.:48:37.

We haven't had that commitment and whilst the new MP may well be

:48:38.:48:40.

committed to it, as the Prime Minister said the new MP is

:48:41.:48:43.

committed to it, we need a Prime Minister who is committed

:48:44.:48:46.

to the NHS, not somebody who shies away from making the

:48:47.:48:49.

OK, we'll see what happens with that.

:48:50.:48:51.

This result, though, doesn't it show how vulnerable

:48:52.:48:53.

Labour MPs in some of the rest of the region are?

:48:54.:48:56.

Places like Darlington, Middlesbrough South - the

:48:57.:48:57.

Conservatives will be licking their lips, even places

:48:58.:48:59.

like Bishop Auckland on the current polling.

:49:00.:49:01.

You should be looking to win seats not

:49:02.:49:03.

Most certainly, and we are working across across the piece, knocking

:49:04.:49:07.

doors and speaking to people all the time.

:49:08.:49:09.

But it is a very real lesson to us and we've got to remember that

:49:10.:49:12.

we mustn't take anything for granted.

:49:13.:49:19.

The north-east has been a bedrock, the whole of the

:49:20.:49:21.

north of England has been a bedrock for the Labour Party, and we mustn't

:49:22.:49:24.

be complacent about that, we must make sure we are in contact with

:49:25.:49:27.

people, taking those messages on social justice

:49:28.:49:29.

OK, would you accept that if you're polling doesn't improve and we keep

:49:30.:49:33.

getting results like Copeland, Jeremy Corbyn cannot lead the party

:49:34.:49:36.

Well, we're coming up to a set of by-elections, not by-elections -

:49:37.:49:40.

council elections and male role in elections, soon and I'm sure that

:49:41.:49:43.

Jeremy will assess what happens then and...

:49:44.:49:44.

It's Groundhog Day, we were in this position last year.

:49:45.:49:48.

Well, we were, yes, and at that stage Jeremy

:49:49.:49:51.

had only been leader for a few months.

:49:52.:49:53.

Now he's been leader of the nearly two years and I think this is

:49:54.:49:56.

a real test of two years of his leadership.

:49:57.:49:59.

I think that's a matter for Jeremy and our other

:50:00.:50:04.

colleagues as well who I'm sure we'll be offering him plenty of

:50:05.:50:07.

advice about what he should do regardless of the results.

:50:08.:50:11.

But I think we need to be able to concentrate

:50:12.:50:13.

It doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement from one of his

:50:14.:50:17.

But, anyway, Jonathan Arnott - the referendum has

:50:18.:50:20.

The lesson of Copeland is that the challenge in

:50:21.:50:23.

the north, to Labour, is coming from the Conservatives, not from Ukip.

:50:24.:50:26.

Well, Copeland is a seat where the Conservatives in a very strong

:50:27.:50:29.

If we had a by-election somewhere in the

:50:30.:50:32.

north-east where Ukip were in a very strong second place I'm sure you'd

:50:33.:50:35.

see something very different, whether its Hartlepool or Blyth

:50:36.:50:37.

Valley for example, 11 of the constituencies in the north-east

:50:38.:50:40.

have Ukip in second place at present, so actually we're in a very

:50:41.:50:44.

strong position to challenge if we can get a positive message out

:50:45.:50:48.

Very briefly, James Airey, with all the

:50:49.:50:53.

promises made, A595, will the Government

:50:54.:50:55.

act on that once they said what they're going to do about it?

:50:56.:50:58.

I'll be working with Trudy, the local transport

:50:59.:51:01.

authority, Cumbria County Council, important elections in May.

:51:02.:51:03.

We need to get that investment into Cumbria,

:51:04.:51:05.

Now, away from the by-election, local authorities have been setting

:51:06.:51:10.

The most householders it means a big rise in bills.

:51:11.:51:14.

Here is that, plus the rest of the week's News in 60 seconds.

:51:15.:51:24.

Northumberland is the latest to put its council tax up by around 5%.

:51:25.:51:28.

Labour councillor, Susan Dungworth, says it still leaves them far short

:51:29.:51:31.

of the amount they need to provide social care for the elderly.

:51:32.:51:36.

What the Government are doing is they are

:51:37.:51:43.

reducing the national funding for social care.

:51:44.:51:44.

And what they are saying to local authorities

:51:45.:51:46.

is you can raise that money yourself.

:51:47.:51:48.

That claim was challenged by Conservative Peter Jackson.

:51:49.:51:50.

Year after year they keep claiming that

:51:51.:51:51.

they're not getting enough money from central Government.

:51:52.:51:53.

I think they've got to look at themselves,

:51:54.:51:55.

the amount of money they are wasting is quite dramatic.

:51:56.:51:58.

A public enquiry into plans for an opencast coal mine

:51:59.:52:00.

in Northumberland will take place on my May.

:52:01.:52:03.

Campaigners have been fighting to stop the Banks group

:52:04.:52:05.

removing 3 million tonnes of coal from land near Widdrington, west of

:52:06.:52:08.

And, finally, tributes have been paid to the

:52:09.:52:12.

veteran Labour politician Don Dixon, who has died at the age of 87.

:52:13.:52:16.

A former shipyard worker, Lord Dixon was MP for Jarrow

:52:17.:52:19.

until 1997 and a former deputy Chief Whip.

:52:20.:52:26.

That's Luke Walton with the 60 second round up.

:52:27.:52:28.

James, a near 4% rise in council tax bills for Cumbria.

:52:29.:52:33.

You're not in control of that council, but is that justified?

:52:34.:52:36.

I think it's very difficult to justify such a high council tax,

:52:37.:52:39.

so should certainly on social care the 2% of that spin ring fenced and

:52:40.:52:42.

Government has encouraged local authorities to charge residents

:52:43.:52:44.

the 2% for providing social care, I think that's very justified.

:52:45.:52:49.

The other 2% we haven't entirely had explained to us how the ruling

:52:50.:52:52.

administration are going to spend it and there's been one heck of a lot

:52:53.:52:56.

There's also been a lot of cut in the

:52:57.:52:59.

Even the social care thing, it's a sticking plaster

:53:00.:53:02.

That money, as with many northern councils, will not raise anywhere

:53:03.:53:06.

near enough to solve the social care crisis.

:53:07.:53:09.

Look, it would be wrong of me to say that there isn't pressure

:53:10.:53:13.

on social care, but I found out just prior to Cumbria's budget last week

:53:14.:53:16.

that the social care Department in Cumbria County Council is actually

:53:17.:53:20.

There was a gaping hole there, they don't know

:53:21.:53:24.

That's just passing the buck, isn't it?

:53:25.:53:27.

I think Government needs to have confidence in local authorities

:53:28.:53:32.

before they start to ramp up extra funding.

:53:33.:53:34.

We need to prove that we can spend it wisely and make sure

:53:35.:53:37.

that money is getting to front line services.

:53:38.:53:39.

Alex, it's going up nearly 5% in Stockton, in your area, but

:53:40.:53:42.

won't people be happy to pay a bit extra to ensure that the vulnerable

:53:43.:53:45.

I think they will be happy to pay that, but let us

:53:46.:53:51.

remember this is a Government levy, not a council tax increase.

:53:52.:53:54.

It's a Government levy in order to pay for social care.

:53:55.:53:56.

But our social care system needs some ?2.6 billion over

:53:57.:53:59.

the next four or five years in order just to break even and we are not

:54:00.:54:03.

getting that money from central Government and it's time they

:54:04.:54:06.

thought about national taxation in order to pay for social care

:54:07.:54:12.

instead of passing the back to local councillors.

:54:13.:54:14.

But this is a local service, why shouldn't council tax be used

:54:15.:54:17.

And then people can see whether the money is

:54:18.:54:19.

being spent wisely in their local area?

:54:20.:54:21.

It has been traditionally delivered locally with Government

:54:22.:54:23.

funding and we've seen huge cuts, billions of pounds cut from social

:54:24.:54:26.

care over recent years and it is time the Government stood back and

:54:27.:54:29.

said how on earth do we put this right?

:54:30.:54:31.

They put that right by accepting responsibility through the taxpayer.

:54:32.:54:35.

Jonathan, Ukip is generally hostile to putting up taxes, as we know,

:54:36.:54:37.

but is this the only way to solve the social care crisis?

:54:38.:54:41.

Well, Ukip on a national level have said that we

:54:42.:54:44.

should be cutting the foreign aid budget so that we are helping with

:54:45.:54:47.

natural disasters and things like that but not some of the worst

:54:48.:54:50.

excesses that we've been seeing, and to plough

:54:51.:54:54.

that money into the NHS and into adult social care.

:54:55.:54:58.

James, there are a lot of conservatives who

:54:59.:55:00.

have agreed with that, wouldn't they?

:55:01.:55:02.

Yes, but that's an entirely different issue and we do need to

:55:03.:55:05.

It's not, it's public money being spent in one

:55:06.:55:08.

Perhaps that's right but we talk about Government

:55:09.:55:11.

cutting social care funding to local authorities, overall funding

:55:12.:55:14.

packages have been cut to local authorities but it is about local

:55:15.:55:17.

choice, if councillors councils have decided to cut social care budgets

:55:18.:55:19.

it has often been Labour-controlled councils that have made

:55:20.:55:22.

I'm sure Alex Wood, if he had time,...

:55:23.:55:25.

There is nothing more local than elected councillors

:55:26.:55:30.

making budget decisions - that is what they do.

:55:31.:55:32.

OK, we'll have to leave it there - I'm sure it's a subject

:55:33.:55:35.

Now, parish councils were traditionally responsible for

:55:36.:55:38.

maintaining flowerbeds, graveyards, the occasional public toilet, but

:55:39.:55:40.

they've taken on an increasingly important role in recent years, but

:55:41.:55:43.

with the extra responsibility has come big rises in the parish precept

:55:44.:55:47.

which is paid by households on top of the other bits of council tax.

:55:48.:55:51.

As Fergus Hewison reports, there appears

:55:52.:55:52.

to be no limit on how high thou those bills can go.

:55:53.:56:03.

Berwick-upon-Tweed - a town used to strife

:56:04.:56:05.

But in recent years there has been civil

:56:06.:56:09.

Would you make of Berwick town council?

:56:10.:56:13.

Not a lot. Why is that?

:56:14.:56:16.

Well, I think there could be a lot more done for

:56:17.:56:19.

We all want what's best for the town and if certain people can't agree

:56:20.:56:24.

I've heard about them at the council meetings and that, I think it's

:56:25.:56:30.

about time they got their act together.

:56:31.:56:32.

So why does the town council have this reputation?

:56:33.:56:35.

The answer perhaps is in these two official reports into terror Berwick

:56:36.:56:39.

town council, both of which paint a picture of a dysfunctional

:56:40.:56:42.

The first report found a culture of mistrust, suspicion and

:56:43.:56:53.

disrespectful behaviour which brought the council into disrepute.

:56:54.:56:54.

Another report looked at the management of ?100,000 one in a

:56:55.:56:57.

competition run by celebrity retail expert Mary Portas.

:56:58.:56:59.

The money was meant to improve Berwick's high-street.

:57:00.:57:02.

But the report says the fund was mismanaged by the town

:57:03.:57:05.

council and it identified significant financial weaknesses.

:57:06.:57:09.

Councillor Georgina Hill claims she attempted to highlight these and

:57:10.:57:12.

The governance was absolutely shocking.

:57:13.:57:18.

There was no due diligence or risk assessment done.

:57:19.:57:21.

Anyone that tried to ask any questions or

:57:22.:57:23.

scrutinise, which is what we are meant to do, was shot down.

:57:24.:57:27.

Berwick town council says the issues raised

:57:28.:57:29.

And others agree that the council has changed.

:57:30.:57:35.

We have a set of accounts now that are transparent and clear.

:57:36.:57:38.

We don't have any secret groups taking decisions without

:57:39.:57:40.

We are on the mend and and we can prove that and demonstrated

:57:41.:57:48.

by what we can see around us, happening in the town, today.

:57:49.:57:51.

All that turmoil in Berwick did not stop

:57:52.:57:53.

the town's share of the council tax, the precept, rising by 35% in just

:57:54.:57:56.

But Berwick's was by no means the biggest increase.

:57:57.:58:01.

Over the last four years, the largest

:58:02.:58:03.

precept increase by any town or parish council in Northumberland

:58:04.:58:08.

council increased it by 268% in this time.

:58:09.:58:24.

In North Yorkshire the largest increase was 350% in Normanby,

:58:25.:58:29.

and in Cumbria it was a massive 610% in Ulfor.

:58:30.:58:32.

At the same time, larger local authorities haven't been able

:58:33.:58:34.

to raise their council tax by more than 2% a year

:58:35.:58:37.

One town council not short of cash is Peterlee in County Durham.

:58:38.:58:41.

If you live in an average-sized house in Peterlee you'll pay

:58:42.:58:43.

almost ?300 a year to the town council for its services.

:58:44.:58:46.

That's the second highest rate in all of England.

:58:47.:58:52.

And there's been controversy too about the council's

:58:53.:58:54.

reserves - it has more than ?1 million in the bank.

:58:55.:58:56.

Hardly surprising, then, that last year a

:58:57.:58:58.

poll of Peterlee residents found they wanted the precept frozen.

:58:59.:59:00.

But a new administration says it's now

:59:01.:59:03.

You're seeing more and more people now wanting to take notice of what

:59:04.:59:08.

You're seeing more and more local social media groups saying,

:59:09.:59:15.

what's going on with this, what's going on with that?

:59:16.:59:17.

The play areas, the allotments dash more and more

:59:18.:59:19.

people in the town are taking a lot more notice because people feel they

:59:20.:59:23.

And many town and parish councils argue

:59:24.:59:26.

increases are justified because they are taking on services

:59:27.:59:28.

that larger councils have stopped providing.

:59:29.:59:29.

England's 10,000 parish councils are being asked to do a lot more,

:59:30.:59:34.

they are asked being asked to do a lot

:59:35.:59:39.

more by their residents, by Government, and indeed by other

:59:40.:59:41.

larger councils that increasingly can't afford to run services that

:59:42.:59:44.

One place that illustrates that point is West Bedlington

:59:45.:59:49.

in Northumberland, where the town precept has risen

:59:50.:59:51.

by 93% in the last four years, all to pay for vital services.

:59:52.:59:59.

We do the very local services, the things like play

:00:00.:00:02.

areas, bus shelters, litter bins - all that sort of the basic town

:00:03.:00:06.

And what we've done is we've tried to get them in the

:00:07.:00:11.

As the scope of many town and parish councils grows, they have more

:00:12.:00:17.

But all that comes at a price and is attracting ever greater scrutiny.

:00:18.:00:25.

And a spokesman from the Department for Communities and

:00:26.:00:28.

Local Government said they expect parish and town councils to

:00:29.:00:34.

demonstrate restraint when setting bills, but point out that parish

:00:35.:00:36.

councils do play a key role in designing new and innovative

:00:37.:00:39.

James Airey, the Government forward says forces

:00:40.:00:43.

larger councils who want to raise council tax above a certain level,

:00:44.:00:45.

it will be 5% this year, to have a referendum before doing it.

:00:46.:00:49.

Why don't they insist on the same thing

:00:50.:00:50.

I think you have to remember, Richard,

:00:51.:00:54.

that many of these parish councils are very small councils, perhaps

:00:55.:00:56.

councils representing some very small villages in general areas.

:00:57.:01:04.

When you look at some of the percentages

:01:05.:01:09.

we are only talking in

:01:10.:01:10.

Now, instinctively, as a Conservative, when we see some of

:01:11.:01:14.

the figures on your report I am shocked,

:01:15.:01:16.

but you need to look at the

:01:17.:01:18.

information behind that and it may be a one-off

:01:19.:01:20.

increase to provide a

:01:21.:01:21.

I mean, our parish councils are having to pick

:01:22.:01:24.

up a lot of services that district councils in particular are no longer

:01:25.:01:27.

Jonathan Arnott, the percentages do look frightening but

:01:28.:01:30.

as James points out, on average, these councils are charging just

:01:31.:01:33.

over ?50 a year - some of them are charging

:01:34.:01:35.

the price of a portion of

:01:36.:01:37.

fish and chips to be honest with you, each year.

:01:38.:01:39.

I mean, basically, we want democracy to be

:01:40.:01:43.

as close as possible to the citizens, so parish and town

:01:44.:01:46.

It brings services as close as possible

:01:47.:01:48.

So all that is good and when you get a parish or town

:01:49.:01:53.

council charging too much of course it is much

:01:54.:01:55.

take control of that council and to do something about it...

:01:56.:01:59.

But part of the problem is a lot of these

:02:00.:02:01.

councils are not even elected because there is so little interest

:02:02.:02:04.

Well, if people see precepts going up then what you've

:02:05.:02:07.

just shown in your video there is that people do then

:02:08.:02:10.

do something about it, get involved and do

:02:11.:02:12.

If services are being moved from a unitary authority down to a

:02:13.:02:17.

town or parish council, the town or parish council puts

:02:18.:02:21.

the precept up but does the parents council as it

:02:22.:02:24.

And if they don't then it's just an extra tax on everybody.

:02:25.:02:31.

James, many of these parish councillors are

:02:32.:02:36.

not elected, they are appointed and co-opted because nobody is

:02:37.:02:38.

interested on sitting on some of these bodies.

:02:39.:02:40.

Don't they need to be democratically accountable or done

:02:41.:02:42.

If nobody is interested in standing, why have them?

:02:43.:02:45.

There are some very good parish councils out

:02:46.:02:49.

there and, let's be frank, there are some lousy ones as well.

:02:50.:02:52.

And I think they have to stimulate interest.

:02:53.:02:53.

What I would advise, if people are interested in their local

:02:54.:02:56.

community then think about being a parish

:02:57.:02:58.

Alex, briefly, we haven't got much time, Labour councils are often

:02:59.:03:01.

passing duties on to these parish and town

:03:02.:03:03.

councils, that's why the

:03:04.:03:05.

Well that certainly hasn't happened in

:03:06.:03:07.

Stockton, but some of bills have gone up.

:03:08.:03:09.

I know Thornaby town council, they have the town hall to

:03:10.:03:12.

look after in Thornaby and that proves very expensive.

:03:13.:03:14.

For me, we need to help people understand more

:03:15.:03:18.

what the small councils do because often what happens is your borough

:03:19.:03:21.

councillors, your unitary authority councillors, get the blame for

:03:22.:03:25.

increases put up by the small organisations.

:03:26.:03:27.

Keep up-to-date by following me on Twitter.

:03:28.:03:33.

Now, though, it's back to Andrew for the rest of the show.

:03:34.:03:38.

Welcome back. Article 50, which triggers the beginning of Britain

:03:39.:03:59.

leaving the European Union and start negotiations, is winding its way

:04:00.:04:02.

through the Lords in this coming week. Tarzan has made an

:04:03.:04:07.

intervention, let's just see the headline from the Mail on Sunday.

:04:08.:04:13.

Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine, my fightback starts here, he is

:04:14.:04:18.

going to defy Theresa May. I divide one Prime Minister over the poll

:04:19.:04:22.

tax, I'm ready to defy this one in the Lords over Brexit. There we go,

:04:23.:04:26.

that's going to happen this week. We will see how far he gets. I don't

:04:27.:04:32.

think he will get very far, I don't think Loyalist Tory MPs and

:04:33.:04:36.

Brexiteers are quaking in their boots at the prospect of a rebellion

:04:37.:04:41.

led by Michael Heseltine. I sense that many Tory MPs are already

:04:42.:04:45.

moving on to the next question about Brexit, and the discussion over how

:04:46.:04:50.

much it will cost us to come out. The fact they are already debating

:04:51.:04:56.

that suggests to me they feel things will go fairly smoothly in terms of

:04:57.:05:01.

the legislation. When I spoke to the Labour leader in the Lords last week

:05:02.:05:05.

on the daily politics, she said she was going to push hard for the kind

:05:06.:05:08.

of amendments Lord has all-time is talking about and they would bring

:05:09.:05:17.

that back to the Commons. But if the Commons pinged it back to the Lords

:05:18.:05:21.

with the amendments taken out, she made it clear that was the end of

:05:22.:05:27.

it. Is that right? That's about right. This is probably really a

:05:28.:05:32.

large destruction. There will be to micro issues that come up in the

:05:33.:05:37.

Lords, one is on the future of EU nationals, that could be voted on as

:05:38.:05:42.

soon as this Wednesday, and then the main vote in the Lords on a week on

:05:43.:05:47.

Tuesday, when there is this question of what sort of vote will MPs and

:05:48.:05:51.

peers get at the end of the Brexit process and that is what has

:05:52.:05:55.

all-time is talking about. He wants to make sure there are guarantees in

:05:56.:05:59.

place. The kind of things peers are looking for are pretty moderate and

:06:00.:06:03.

the Government have hinted they could deliver on both of them

:06:04.:06:09.

already. But they are still not prepared... Amber Rudd said they

:06:10.:06:13.

were not prepared... They may say yes we are going to do that but they

:06:14.:06:18.

won't allow whatever that is to be enshrined in the legislation. The

:06:19.:06:23.

question is whether we think this is dancing on the head of a pin. The

:06:24.:06:26.

Government have already promised something in the House of Commons,

:06:27.:06:30.

but will they write it down, I don't think that's the biggest problem in

:06:31.:06:34.

the world. In a sense this is a great magicians trick by Theresa May

:06:35.:06:38.

because it is not the most important thing. The most important thing in

:06:39.:06:44.

Brexit is going on in those committees behind closed doors when

:06:45.:06:47.

they are trying to work out what the next migration system is for Britain

:06:48.:06:51.

and there are some interesting, indeed toxic proposals, but at the

:06:52.:06:55.

moment Downing Street are happy to let us talk about the constitutional

:06:56.:06:59.

propriety of what MPs are doing over the next eight days. It seems to me

:07:00.:07:06.

the irony is that if we had a second chamber that can claim some kind of

:07:07.:07:09.

democratic legitimacy, which the one we have cannot, it would be able to

:07:10.:07:14.

cause the Government more trouble on this, it would be more robust.

:07:15.:07:19.

Absolutely. I saw the interview we did with the Labour Leader of the

:07:20.:07:27.

Lords, they are very conscious, of the fact they are not elected and

:07:28.:07:31.

have limited powers. She was clear to you they would not impede the

:07:32.:07:35.

timetable for triggering Article 50 so we might get a bit of theatre,

:07:36.:07:39.

Michael Heseltine might deliver a brilliant speech. It is interesting

:07:40.:07:46.

that Euroscepticism gun under Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party

:07:47.:07:50.

but two offer senior ministers Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the

:07:51.:07:54.

most prominent opponents now but they will change nothing at this

:07:55.:07:59.

point. She will have the space to trigger Article 50 within her

:08:00.:08:03.

timetable. Let's move on. Let me show you a picture tweeted by Nigel

:08:04.:08:05.

Farage. That is Nigel Farage and a small

:08:06.:08:16.

group of people having dinner, and within that small group of people is

:08:17.:08:20.

the president of the United States, and it was taken in the last couple

:08:21.:08:24.

of days. This would suggest that if he can command that amount of the

:08:25.:08:31.

President's time in a small group of people, then he's actually rather

:08:32.:08:35.

close to the president. Make no mistake about it, Nigel Farage is

:08:36.:08:40.

now to and fro Washington more regularly than perhaps he is here.

:08:41.:08:46.

Hopefully that LBC programme is recorded over in the state. He's not

:08:47.:08:52.

only close to the president but to a series of people within the

:08:53.:08:56.

administration. That relationship there is a remarkable one and one to

:08:57.:09:01.

keep an eye on. Will the main government be tempted to tap into

:09:02.:09:05.

that relationship at any time or is it just seething with anger? You can

:09:06.:09:11.

feel a ripple of discontentment over this. We are in the middle of

:09:12.:09:18.

negotiating the state visit and the sort of pomp and circumstance and

:09:19.:09:21.

what kind of greeting Britain should give Donald Trump when he comes over

:09:22.:09:26.

later in the year. There is a great deal of neurotic thought going into

:09:27.:09:30.

what that should look like, but one of the most interesting things about

:09:31.:09:33.

our relationship with Donald Trump is that there is a nervousness among

:09:34.:09:36.

some Cabinet ministers that we are being seen to go too far, too fast

:09:37.:09:41.

with the prospect of a trade deal. Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet

:09:42.:09:45.

ministers, they worry we won't get a very good trade deal with the US and

:09:46.:09:49.

we are tolerably placing a lot of stalled by it. When we see the kind

:09:50.:09:54.

of deal they want to pitch with us there might be some pulling back and

:09:55.:10:02.

that could be an awkward moment in terms of our relationship, and no

:10:03.:10:05.

doubt Nigel at that term -- at that point will accuse the UK of doing

:10:06.:10:11.

the dirty on Donald Trump. If there was a deal, would they get it

:10:12.:10:18.

through the House of Commons? Nigel Farage is having dinner with the

:10:19.:10:23.

president, not bad as a kind of lifestyle but he's politically

:10:24.:10:26.

rootless, he won't be an MEP much longer so if you look at where is

:10:27.:10:30.

his political base to build on this great time he's having, there is

:10:31.:10:34.

one. Given that there is one I think he's just having a great time and it

:10:35.:10:38.

isn't much more significant than that. No? There's a lot to be said

:10:39.:10:48.

for having a great time. You are having a great time. Let's just

:10:49.:10:57.

look, because of the dominance of the Government we kind of it nor

:10:58.:11:01.

there are problems piling up, only what, ten days with the Budget to

:11:02.:11:07.

go, piling up for Mrs May and her government. The business rates which

:11:08.:11:13.

has alarmed a lot of Tories, this disability cuts which are really a

:11:14.:11:17.

serious problem for the Government, and the desperate need for more

:11:18.:11:21.

money for social care. There are other issues, there are problems

:11:22.:11:26.

there and they involve spending money. Absolutely and some people

:11:27.:11:29.

argue Theresa May has only one Monday and that is to deliver Brexit

:11:30.:11:34.

but it is impossible as a Prime Minister to ignore everything else.

:11:35.:11:40.

And she doesn't want to either. The bubbling issue of social care and

:11:41.:11:44.

the NHS is the biggest single problem for her in the weeks and

:11:45.:11:48.

months ahead, she has got to come up with something. And Mr Hammond will

:11:49.:11:51.

have to loosen his belt a little bit. I think he will in relation to

:11:52.:11:57.

the NHS, he didn't mention it in the Autumn Statement, which was

:11:58.:12:00.

remarkable, and he cannot get away with not mentioning it this time. If

:12:01.:12:05.

he mentions it, it has to be in a positive context in some way or

:12:06.:12:08.

another and it is one example of many. She is both strong because she

:12:09.:12:12.

is so far ahead in the opinion polls, but this in tray is one of

:12:13.:12:17.

the most daunting a Prime Minister has faced in recent times I think.

:12:18.:12:22.

Here is what will happen on Budget day, money will be more money,

:12:23.:12:29.

magically found down the back of the Treasury sofa. The projections are

:12:30.:12:35.

that he has wiggle room of about 12 billion. But look at the bills,

:12:36.:12:39.

rebels involved in business rates suggest the Chancellor will have to

:12:40.:12:43.

throw up ?2 billion at that problem. 3.7 billion is the potential cost of

:12:44.:12:47.

this judgment about disability benefits. The Government will try to

:12:48.:12:51.

find different ways of satisfying it but who knows. It will not popular.

:12:52.:12:57.

I'm not sure they will throw money at the NHS, they want an interim

:12:58.:13:00.

settlement on social care which will alleviate pressure on the NHS but

:13:01.:13:05.

they feel... That's another couple of billion by the way. They feel in

:13:06.:13:11.

the Treasury that the NHS has not delivered on what Simon Stevens

:13:12.:13:16.

promised them. But here is the bigger problem for Philip Hammond,

:13:17.:13:21.

he has two This year and he thinks the second one in the autumn is more

:13:22.:13:25.

important because that is when people will feel the cost living

:13:26.:13:26.

squeeze. The Daily Politics is back at noon

:13:27.:13:29.

on BBC Two tomorrow. We'll be back here at

:13:30.:13:32.

the same time next week. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:33.:13:35.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:36.:13:41.

Andrew Neil and Richard Moss are joined by Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, Ukip's Patrick O'Flynn, Swedish MP Laila Naraghi and Douglas Murray of the Henry Jackson Society. Sam Coates, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards are on the political panel.


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