02/04/2017 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria

It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained

But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal

After a momentous week, Britain's journey out

Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home

We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.

And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -

what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?

Here, are northeast manufacturing jobs at risk from Brexit?

And it's the Government's big idea for benefits,

but these women say universal credits push them into debt.

changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from

there constituencies. And with me, as always,

the best and the brightest political panel in the business -

Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be

tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause

22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something

of a shock. The guidelines propose

that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade

deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted

strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away

in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,

Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look

after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected

all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar

cannot be changed without the agreement of the people

of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not

want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,

in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying

that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is

this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.

Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again

and again is that at different points individual countries can

start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you

have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to

be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit

after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is

triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto

it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald

Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to

say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual

countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking

to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I

think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number

10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter

of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal

the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things

looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed

over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this

incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there

could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,

it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going

entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar

got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the

Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not

see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of

difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to

Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.

For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power

grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are

not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials

after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it

is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very

much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is

still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the

next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly

empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has

got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They

will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy

about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so

much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been

absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!

Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now

changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of

months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking

up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,

the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth

journey to the exit door? Or can we expect

a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back

control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually

involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting

in a car. It is only a few hundred metres

from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start

of a much longer one and we do not know exactly

where we will all end up. This is a historic moment

from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,

sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's

ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset

to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,

hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it

all meant for the So, here it is, a copy

of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's

proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal

at the same time. It also mentioned the word

"security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement

would mean cooperation in the fight against crime

and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got

to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European

policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access

information in the same way as we would as a member,

so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate

a continuing relationship that enables us to work together

in the way that we have. That night, the

Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad

Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,

having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is

actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers

suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool

and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area

if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,

as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we

will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement

of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other

business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,

outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British

law to change later, It is not without its critics

but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,

it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek

a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,

we are doing so from a position where we have the same

standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver

on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law

in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small

issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle

with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said

they were not allowed Great(!)

so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been

a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,

Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting

and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines

for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,

we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss

the framework for our Starting parallel talks

on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,

will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not

pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is

already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get

the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set

elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions

are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is

celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent

by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a

future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient

progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this

phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence

and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of

nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that

might be reached on things talked about early on will be very

provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the

sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.

Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk

of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not

remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.

A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said

that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see

how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are

wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see

what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,

there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years

and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept

that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels

is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to

make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a

really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,

speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.

But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I

cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the

negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.

The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years

after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must

remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of

the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It

depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are

getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any

judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you

know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And

then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is

something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this

stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,

and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer

to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in

its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like

yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they

will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do

not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try

another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a

comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints

on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept

that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We

will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own

decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the

negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in

the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.

No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free

trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very

important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of

the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without

having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I

think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of

the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no

deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will

get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,

because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But

it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the

world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would

be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with

everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to

get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the

interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned

in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair

government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any

free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British

government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it

absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this

week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is

halfway across the world to protect another small group of British

people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am

absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the

same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.

This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about

sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any

free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to

Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The

British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests

of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000

people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important

Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will

be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including

free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this

morning. Although sometimes it seems

like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening

other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,

there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot

up for grabs. Local elections take place

on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections

in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,

usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually

fares better are not Six regions of England will also

hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,

and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,

with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands

among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32

councils are being contested, many of them affected

by boundary changes. Since these seats were last

contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each

of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected

in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,

though independent candidates currently hold

a quarter of council seats. According to the latest

calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,

the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,

despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England

looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning

100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,

predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system

usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,

the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats

they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high

water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections

suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest

gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's

very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice

of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start

with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?

Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part

rural England. The only control three of the council they are

defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly

a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion

polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the

position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring

of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking

about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50

losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council

areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,

could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council

control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,

what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the

big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of

the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local

by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and

in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a

Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of

ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is

uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they

do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do

terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing

relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely

to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in

the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour

Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We

are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the

mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general

election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in

the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general

election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the

West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a

headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to

lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for

their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his

party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty

dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.

Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always

remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.

Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.

The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP

will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is

happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion

polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did

relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather

disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign

of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP

ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by

double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently

control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the

question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative

revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government

by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of

the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in

the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose

control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22

local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose

ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,

labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff

could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.

Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour

control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid

Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in

the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be

judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion

polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it

affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect

his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by

this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and

others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence

and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some

kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the

argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12

months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,

up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some

impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will

mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it

will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That

is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive

reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the

fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she

believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West

who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were

worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got

other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the

success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says

this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face

before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a

good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results

will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem

threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory

party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried

about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems

because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve

about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding

repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think

he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership

contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to

be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they

were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,

it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of

self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.

Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it

Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew

Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces

It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the

Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.

If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.

Labour is trying to do something much harder,

which is to try and speak for the whole country,

and by the way, that is another part of

Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's

Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,

let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.

By the way, there is more that unites Remainers

and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common

concerns about the way the country is run.

Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.

Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on

Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed

Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms

with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I

campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I

represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.

Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky

nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this

democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant

legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before

Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I

will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election

date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across

the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what

Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We

have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,

your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we

have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those

types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies

that decide general elections. The important places in the elections

are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are

marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well

in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to

campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who

voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime

Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen

that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is

important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the

trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people

who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for

other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate

that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am

not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see

online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to

switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was

not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our

neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from

voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among

nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the

mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,

in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is

less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond

extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of

elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate

city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that

of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an

anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,

from memory. We have not got elections in London but our

elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...

What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the

opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it

is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do

well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,

Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the

general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?

What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative

garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me

about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to

you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people

the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks

so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements

and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey

was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education

spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.

Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the

Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are

working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does

it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three

times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a

huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter

and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in

the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls

are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of

government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that

the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years

because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes

this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault

on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for

government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading

for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me

have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an

individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British

people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are

letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election

question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an

early election? The general election coordinator called for a general

election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in

staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the

Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter

having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the

election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.

Hello, and a very warm welcome to your local part of the show.

And this week, a warning that the north-east and Cumbria

could pay the price for Brexit in thousands of lost

Of course we have heard all of those warnings before

These women on Tyneside say problems with the Government's new benefits

With me to discuss that, the week's seismic political events as well,

are City of Durham Labour MP Roberta Blackman-Woods,

Ukip's Melanie Hurst, and Stockton Conservative

First though, to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn,

He visited a new business in Blyth with local MP Ronnie Campbell,

before addressing a meeting of Labour Party members in Stockton.

I asked him about Labour's approach to Brexit, and what he saw

The importance of having a tariff-free access

to the European market is absolutely essential.

If for example there is a tariff put on all car exports

or all parts exported, then in the long-term,

are those big companies going to maintain their investment

in the north-east or indeed anywhere else in the country?

And so the priority we have put in the whole Brexit process

is tariff-free access to the European market.

So how will the Labour Party ensure that a region

Because a lot of people here voted for Brexit,

it would be ironic if they end up being poorer because of it.

Well, indeed people voted to leave the European Union,

we respect that decision, we carried it through in the sense

They didn't vote, however, to make themselves unemployed,

they didn't vote to damage their own public services.

We have forced the Government to ensure there is going to be

a vote in Parliament at the end of it.

We will make sure there is a scrutinising process

all the way through this in which we, if necessary,

on all the related bills to the Great Repeal Bill

because I want to be absolutely sure that the industries in this

country and the skills that are here in the north-east

can be fully utilised and we can make those trains,

make those cars and all the other things and export them to Europe

Jeremy Corbyn, talking to me in Blyth on Thursday.

Roberta Blackman-Woods, I know you abstained on at least one

Are you happy Labour is doing all it can to protect the north-east?

I think we've used every opportunity that we've had in Westminster

and beyond to argue the case, particularly for our industries

We want to ensure that Brexit and after Brexit that we do

have tariff-free access to European markets.

That's absolutely essential for our businesses, not only

for them to exist but to continue to expand, and we want Nissan

and Hitachi and other manufacturing companies to prosper in the region

and to achieve that, we have to ensure that access

to markets continue not only in Europe but actually

The Liberal Democrats would say actually you made that less likely

because what you did is vote, largely -I know you abstained -

but with the Government to trigger Article 50

I abstained because my constituents wanted to remain, but as a party

we recognise that the country as a whole had voted for Brexit.

We thought that the result of that referendum should be respected,

and what the job of the opposition was,

is to get the best deal possible for the country post Brexit.

We have put six tests in place that we are saying the Government

the Government have to adhere to, and that ensures for

cooperation on security, all regions will be covered,

but we have really tested the Government on this.

We will see whether they get achieved.

Matthew Vickers, a momentous week obviously, a huge week

Do you see this as an exciting time or are there dangers ahead?

I think there are obviously people who are going to be nervous,

It's a very exciting time, we will be opening up the door

Instead of being confined to trading with Europe,

we are going to be able to get out there in the wider world

and deal with some of the biggest economies...

We haven't been confined to trading with Europe, have we?

Well, as the Prime Minister said, we are going to be looking

for a comprehensive free trade agreement with Europe.

That's what we will be looking for but beyond that we will look

We will be able to hook in, and put our own free trade

agreements in place, trade agreements of all shapes

and sizes with other economies in the world,

bigger economies, the fastest growing economies in the world.

OK, well we will come back to a lot of those issues in a moment.

Melanie Hurst, a letter has been signed, Brexit is done.

Absolutely not. Just beginning.

We have got to hold the Government to account, we have got to make sure

Brexit is delivered and we have got to make sure our tests that

are in place are met to ensure that what we get is the real thing

and not a watered-down version of the membership.

Have you seen anything to suggest you are not

I have reservations on where the red lines are for the Government.

The European Union with free trade agreements with the rest

of the world do have some stipulations in there

that I would like to see the Government say no,

For example, allowing the markets to compete

I think that really needs protection or we are going to find ourselves

OK, all of these issues we are going to talk

about because, according to the think tank Demos,

of the most vulnerable regions in England to the economic rest

of Brexit with a manufacturing sector that could be damaged.

That sounds a gloomy outlook but how true is it?

We went to meet three north-east firms to see what preparations

they have been making for life outside the EU.

Based on Teeside, this German-owned factory makes car engine components

and it's part of the production process that spans Europe.

Its materials come from the rest of the EU while its products

end up in vehicles exported back to the continent.

The boss warns any Brexit deal involving tariffs or other trade

barriers could be bad news for staff here.

Our major customers in this country export the majority of the products

that we supply ultimately, and so anything that's

going to create uncertainty, anything that's going to create

delays, anything that will change people's minds

about what they are doing in the longer term is

going to have a direct impact on this business.

Automotive is one of the industries that have made the north-east

particularly dependent on EU exports.

That's brought concern about what happens if Brexit

But this is also a region where most areas voted Leave.

The Government promises an ambitious free-trade agreement,

but in the week Britain fired the starting gun on EU negotiation,

new research says any disruption to exports poses a risk

The big factor for the north-east is obviously the automotive sector.

Nissan is obviously a massive car plant that is also be supply chain

40% of the north-east exports are associated with the car

and automotive sector, but apart from that

Potential obstacles to the movement of workers

This Tyneside software developer has doubled its staff

numbers in just one year, and says recruitment

of qualified programmers from the rest of the EU is vital.

If we are not able to recruit these highly skilled people coming

from those markets in a fairly simplistic way, which it is right

now for Europe, then we might have to set up places in Europe

where we have to employ staff which means those jobs are not

coming into Newcastle, that output is not

going into the Newcastle and north-east economy.

But for other employers, a future outside the EU looks bright.

This Northumberland plant supplies specialist piping for industry,

it already does a lot of business outside the EU and

I think coming out of Europe is going to be a catalyst for us

to look at other markets, I would say in the European Union.

As well as still concentrating on Europe, I can't see any

It's demand supply, we are a service industry as well as supplying

Is that your message, that if industry and business

is good enough, it can thrive in this new world?

I'm certain of that, absolutely certain.

Our history, our economy has long revolved around making things

Much now depends on keeping that international conveyor belt moving.

Matthew Vickers, we obviously want business there that

shares your optimism about the future post-Brexit

but the vast majority of businesses are concerned.

It's just going to make life much more difficult for them.

It's a huge change, people are going to be nervous about it,

but the reality is we are pulling a chair up at the global trade table

and we will be dealing with lots of other partners.

I think it is in Europe's interest to find the best possible deal,

it's in our interest to find the best possible deal and that's

There's very few indications that we won't.

It's not necessarily in Europe's interest to offer us tariff free

access to the single market though, is it, which is what a lot

of those companies want, and equally all those trade deals

you are talking about, the negotiations with Europe

could drag on beyond two years, the negotiations with the rest

of the world could take years upon years, in which case

the uncertainty goes and jobs might go with it.

There's lots of scaremongering, lots of Doomsday...

We thought the sky was going to fall in after the referendum.

These are businesses that presumably you trust a lot of the time to know

what they are doing, and they are saying,

We can bring all sorts of different businesses, you know.

We've got Nissan, we've got Toyota, we've got Facebook, we've got

In Britain this year, moving forward, they are obviously pretty

There's a fantastic opportunity here for business.

Yes, it is challenging and scary but there's

The worst thing that can happen is people going round down-talking

what this region is going to look like after Brexit.

Actually we need to be a bit more positive and look for opportunities.

Melanie Hurst, will tariffs for some of our exporters, in your view,

if we have to come to that, be a price worth paying

We won't be paying the contributions that we pay to the European Union

now, we won't be beholding to the rules and regulations,

particularly around trade which the Labour Party are very

The current rules with the European Union and the single

market are deeply damaging for the public sector.

They leave it at risk of being outsourced elsewhere.

You know, those companies will look at the prospect of tariffs and OK

that might not happen, I accept that, but they will look

at that and think, well that will only mean we can sell less

That's really a price worth paying for getting out of the EU?

There is no way we are not going to get some kind of deal

We buy much more from the European Union, they are not

They are also not going to give us an advantageous deal when we have

We are not seeking an advantageous deal, we are seeking a mutually

beneficial deal that doesn't involve overpayments to part of the club

OK, Roberta Blackman-Woods, businesses want certainty of course

and they are going to be nervous about this because it does introduce

some degree of instability, but all of the evidence to date

is that the economy isn't collapsing despite the dire

warnings we had during the referendum and post-referendum.

Yes, well what companies are saying indeed the reason

they are in this region, Hitachi, Nissan, is to get access

to those European markets so what we have all got to argue

for, and I think actually go into these negotiations positively,

is to get a deal that secures tariff-free access to those markets.

That's what businesses right across the region

I think we all do have to now be positive and to talk up business

in the region and to try and secure those European markets for future,

but also look more globally and I think we have to do that

But would you accept that we will have to make a choice

then between controlling immigration and that tariff-free access?

Because European Union partners are not going to offer us a deal

without freedom of movement of labour, are they?

They are not going to say, you control your own immigration

and have access to our market, we will have to make a choice.

There is certainly going to be difficult negotiations ahead

and one of the things I thought your programme earlier

showed was that we do need movement of labour to continue to a degree

That's a difficult message for a lot of the Labour

voters in the referendum, they must have thought

I'm not suggesting for a minute that it will be the same

as it is now but we do need to have access to those skills on a global

basis, and indeed people who want to compete globally

Matthew Vickers, Demos suggestion that we are the most vulnerable

English region because we are such a big exporter.

Theresa May is not going to be able to get single market access

for our exporters because she has prioritised control

What we are looking for is a comprehensive

I'm quite optimistic that is what we are going to get.

Let's get her in there, see what she comes out with.

I think the reason we are such big exporters to Europe

is because the people of the northeast do a damn good

job in manufacturing, they do a damn good job for Nissan

and that's why regardless of what the setup is, we will do well.

OK, Melanie Hurst, you have made it clear that it wants a deal done

on what they say we owe them before they will talk about trade.

Should we be prepared to pay the EU more money?

If you withdraw your membership to the gym, you don't continue

to make contributions towards the running of the gym.

You do if you use the gym for a bit for your own benefit,

which is what the EU will be asking for.

If you are a member, but then if you withdraw your membership

I'm quite happy for the UK to pay what it is due,

but to pay some ridiculous exiting the, you know, totally unreasonable.

but to pay some ridiculous exiting fee, you know, totally unreasonable.

OK, that depends if you think it is worth it or not.

Away from Brexit, it has been a busy week with a public inquiry announced

into plans to develop Northumberland County

And some positive news about hospitals in Cumbria.

There is more on those stories and more in our snappy and currently

The body that runs hospitals in Carlisle and Whitehaven has come

The North Cumbria NHS Trust had spent four years under extra

supervision after it was found to have high death rates.

People with mental health conditions should not be forced

into face-to-face benefits assessments against doctors'

advice according to Bishop Auckland MP Helen Goodman.

I had an e-mail this morning from one of my constituents

saying her husband had taken his life on Friday.

He first came to us in 2016 when his award of ESA was under review.

Despite his doctor's protest, he was made

Controversial plans to build hundreds of new homes and a retail

park on the site of County Hall in Morpeth will be looked

Northumberland County Council approved the plans but the final

decision will be made by the Local Government Secretary.

Finally, North Tyneside MP Mary Glindon is calling for milk

to be available to all children in their first year of school.

Now to the Government's big idea to streamline the benefits system

Universal credit has been dogged by delays

but it is finally being rolled out across all of Newcastle.

One of the first areas in the country where that has happened.

Ministers say it will make life easier for those looking for work

but one Tyneside MP says the system is not working and delays are

Friends and neighbours, Tracy and Hayley, both share

a worry about universal credit, the Government's new method

Tracy first claimed universal credit after leaving a job last year,

but waiting for a first payment took months, and continuing

problems with her claim have left her facing financial hardship.

I've gone into arrears with my rent, I owe people money,

I owe my family money, and I can't give them money back

because I have got no money to give them but now they have

It's so degrading, especially when you've worked all your life,

Hayley has been told she will have to move from her current benefit

to universal credit and she's worried about what that could mean.

If I have to go on this, I could end up being homeless.

In a strongly-worded submission to an ongoing work and pensions

select committee inquiry, Newcastle City Council said that

universal credit risks putting some vulnerable residents at risk

The submission also condemns the waiting period for making a claim to

receiving payments, which is usually around six weeks but often more, the

fundamental problem. The council at its housing provider has found that

85% of people claiming work in rent arrears. Sometimes it can be longer

than six weeks to claim, so people are coming to us for food parcels or

crisis support so that has an impact on what we do as an organisation. It

has been a disaster in Newcastle and they cannot possibly roll it out

across the rest of the country knowing these fundamental flaws in

the system exist. The Government says universal credit helps people

moving to work faster and stay in work longer

than the old system, adding its offering support to those who find

themselves in rent arrears. It will make the system far more simple, it

is over complex, people don't understand what benefits they are

entitled to, it will also encourage people back to work. A lot of people

in the old system were afraid they would lose benefits they were

entitled to if they went back to work. It will roll out over the

coming months and years across other parts of the region and the country,

but what happens in Newcastle as a litmus test for how the new benefits

system may function elsewhere. Matthew Vickers, we saw two women

there under considerable stress over this. This benefit was supposed to

make life easier for people claiming it, instead it is causing

unacceptable levels of stress and debt. It is heartbreaking to see

people in financial hardship that. There is an advance payment you can

claim for if you are in hardship, there is an option there but this

change simplifies a huge mess of benefits that were all different. It

is fair to people paying it and claiming it, it's not about how well

you know your way around the system, it will reduce fraud, reduce

fair system that will not penalise fair system that will not penalise

people for getting off benefits. There are crisis payments available

to people in these situations, there will always be problems with any

major changes, the principle is right isn't it? Yes, the problem is

the Government massively underfunded this whole system and didn't leave

enough time to get proper systems in place so we wouldn't have for

example the huge delays in processing claims. Not only are

people having to wait six weeks, often three months and ending up in

huge debt. A lot of people in the huge debt. A lot of people in the

rented private sector are losing their homes so this whole system

that was supposed to support the most full report is actually

attacking them and making large numbers of people homeless. The

Government is showing some signs of listening to that because this week

they have said they will consider not putting families who could be

made homeless into universal credit so they are recognising there are

issues. They are tinkering and doing far too little, too late. Some of

the people on the lowest incomes who are in work are suffering because of

the changes in this benefit. The Chancellor, who is now earning mega

millions, cut money from some of the lowest paid workers in this country

and that is outrageous. The Government need to reverse those

cuts as well as slowing down the roll-out until they can get a proper

system in place. Melanie Hurst, I would ask for the view of Ukip but

as of this week you have no MPs laughed so no want to fight it in

Parliament. If someone for instance comes to you with a problem, what

can you could do about it? I personally work with individuals who

are in receipt of welfare, and in the former life I worked in the

old-fashioned dole office. What is your view of the way the system is?

I think the austerity measures went too far. For me I don't think the

argument is the welfare system is too generous, I think the cost of

living is too high and wages are too low. Having spent 12 months trying

to live on welfare personally, it is not generous at all. If you are used

yourself in that position, the time yourself in that position, the time

delays add unnecessary stress and you spend the rest of your time

trying to play catch up. It is not fair and it has been badly

out elsewhere in the country with out elsewhere in the country with

the problems there have been in Newcastle. The grass is always

greener. In a former life I used to manage shops for living and I had

somebody who worked for me, a single mum who worked very hard, one of the

most energetic people I had ever employed. I wanted her to a

that supervisor because it would that supervisor because it would

have undermined her benefits. This have undermined her benefits. This

system is fair, helping people to go to work. I have got to get out of

the programme I'm afraid, that's about it for this week. We are off

So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes

Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?

And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,

To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford

by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.

Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will

it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can

predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning

with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not

mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.

Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in

business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why

we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under

Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you

do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up

lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you

used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get

back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a

mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in

this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places

like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the

country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the

Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic

areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well

which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part

as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has

taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is

fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are

discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if

they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.

If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your

vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of

representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we

have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124

seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality

of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very

effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is

not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,

that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it

not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the

debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is

something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people

the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually

produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the

foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the

Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social

democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I

do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party

together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own

decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you

saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a

consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing

could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is

moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in

2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look

at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax

changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to

?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate

threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from

currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,

freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax

credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an

impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two

children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched

the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit

changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third

or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The

Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It

is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I

have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith

Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody

should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the

state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by

better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly

less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have

to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her

other language and the role of the government and the state when she

sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government

conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she

says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not

what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would

not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a

much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of

progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when

George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they

were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this

government was going to meet the demand for public services when it

has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do

now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare

issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution

Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which

has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from

the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.

Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the

losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem

for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her

narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about

managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have

at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still

saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and

spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle

classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely

going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to

mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was

told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came

up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions

involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and

benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to

fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you

find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance

rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of

the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an

early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an

albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in

income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel

duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going

to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they

end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call

stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up

in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of

the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to

have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would

like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best

argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at

the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives

feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the

need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very

interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is

trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and

spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.

Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that

demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The

Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to

India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not

know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The

prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest

answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one

because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms

will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to

trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always

go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in

a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.

Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get

out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day

after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and

they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal

talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a

symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.

Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have

run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the

Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the

Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.

Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.

As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,

we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"

I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin.

So, can anybody speak Italian? No. Non parlo italiano.