16/02/2014 Sunday Politics North West

Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be

extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent

Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the

European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant

development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has

the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow

joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election

And in the North West: Labour romps home in Wythenshawe and Sale East,

but will UKIP be peering over their shoulder in May?

Our new MP and UKIP's Deputy Leader join

look at his decisions and priorities with the help of his chief of staff.

With me, the best and brightest political panel in the business The

twits will be as incessant and probably as welcome as the recent

rain. A significant new development in the debate over Scottish

independence this morning, the President of the European

Commission, President Jose Manuel Barroso, has confirmed what the

Nationalists have long denied, that an independent Scotland would have

to reply to join the European Union as a new member, that it would

require the agreement of all 28 member states and that would be in

his words, extremely difficult, if not impossible. In case there is a

new country, a new state coming out of a current member state, it will

have to apply and, this is very important, the application to the

union would have to be approved by all of the other member states.

Countries like Spain, with the secessionist issues they have? I

don't want to interfere in your democratic discussion here, but of

course, it will be extremely difficult to get the approval of all

of the other member states, to have a new member coming in from one

member state. We have seen that that Spain has been opposing even the

recognition, for instance, so it is a similar state. It is a new

country. I believe it is great to be externally difficult, if not

impossible. Well, he says he doesn't want to interfere, but he has just

dropped a medium-sized explosive into the debate on Scottish

independence? A huge story. Alex Salmond must be wondering what is

going to go wrong next. His pitch to the Scottish people is based on two

things, the currency union with England and the rest of the United

Kingdom, which was blown apart last week, and this morning, his claims

that Scotland would automatically get into the European Union has been

dynamited. He's not only saying that they would have to apply, it is also

saying it might be impossible to get the agreement of all 28 members to

allow Scotland in. That's even more significant than the application?

The reference to Spain is interesting, we talk about Catalan

independence, an economic and active area that Spain does not want to be

independent. About five other countries are blocking Kosovo's

accession to the EU. There is no reason they would want to encourage

the secessionist in their country by letting Scotland do the same. If

Scotland does have to apply, and it does get in, it solves the currency

problem because all new members have to accept the Euro? At the moment,

the SNP are rejecting that quite strongly. What an interesting

intervention today. However, I know that those arguing that Scotland

should stay in the union are worried that the polls are tightening. A lot

of these interventions, parents care arguments, they don't look like they

are convincing the Scottish people. We haven't had any polls yet? We

haven't, but we have since the currency debate was reignited in the

last few weeks and it shows the polls tightening slightly. I think

Alistair Darling's campaign would prefer to be much further ahead at

the stage. They are worried that these technical commandments are not

having much sway. Are the polls tightening slightly? They could be

within the statistical margin for error. They are, but not much. Alex

Salmond's main page is one of reassurance. He wants to say you can

vote for independence, a pound in the pocket will be the same as

before and you will still be a member of the European Union. In the

last three or four matter days, both of those claims have been blown

apart. Angus MacNeil has already told BBC Radio 5 Live that the

remarks are nonsense and he is playing more politics. We hope to

speak to the SNP's finance minister, John Swinney, a little bit later in

the programme. It is not just the constant rain that London commuters

have had to deal with. There was also a strike on the tube that

disrupted the travel of millions. A second stoppage was on the cards,

but it was called off at the last minute.

The leader of the biggest underground workers union, the RMT,

is Bob Crow, who has led his members into 24 strikes on the tube since

2005, as well as disputes on the national rail network. Under his

leadership, the union's membership has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to

more than 80,000, at a time when union membership overall has been

shrinking. The current dispute has seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris

Johnson over the mayor's plans to close tube station ticket offices.

The 48-hour stoppage at the beginning of this month is estimated

to have cost the London economy ?100 million. The two sides have agreed a

truce, for now, but Mr Crow has threatened further action if the

mayor imposes his changes. Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday

interview. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You

have suspended the strike for the moment. What will it take to call it

off entirely? Want to know first of all wider booking office has to

close. The Mayor of London made it quite clear in his election

programme that the booking offices would remain open. It was strange,

really, because Ken Livingstone wanted to close them down and the

mayor thought it was popular to keep them open and put in his campaign to

keep them open. However, we have not the news figures. We are being told

only 3% of people use the booking offices. That's not true. In

research done, if somebody does to a booking office with somebody sitting

there and asks for a ticket of less than ?5, they are not allowed to

sell them a ticket, it is madness. Do you use the ticket office? When

it is open, yes. You said to ITV that he didn't. I don't know what I

said to ITV, I don't know what time people use them, sometimes they are

open and sometimes they are closed. People make out that these ticket

office staff are people that sit behind barriers like a newsagent.

I'm not knocking a newsagent, however, these people were the same

people treated like Lions when they were helping people named in the

terrorist incidents, taking them out of the panels. Suddenly they are

lazy people that sit in ticket offices. My understanding is that

the people would come from behind and be out and about now. It is the

management wants to run the underground without ticket offices,

isn't that their prerogative? They are paid to manage, not you, not

your members, they are the managers? Managers are there to manage, and we

want good managers. But we've got some really bad managers that are

not looking at the railway as a whole. This is a successful

industry, not an industry in decline, one of the most successful

in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million people a day. All of the forecast is

or it will move to 3.6 million per day. The mayor wants to run services

on a Friday and Saturday night. We are not opposed to that. However, it

does not make sense that if more people are going to be using the

tube on Friday and Saturday, coming home at two o'clock three o'clock in

the morning, a lot of people drinking, a lot of people not

dragging, why take 1000 people of the network that come to the aid of

people that are looking to people? I want to show you this picture. This

is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I think it is. I was trying to copy

you. You deserve this break because you have done a fantastic job for

your members. Yes, I don't see what that has got to do with it. Let s

get every editor of the daily newspapers and see where they go on

their holidays, I would like to know. What I choose to do... I'm not

attacking you for doing that... You've got a picture up there, I've

got to say, why don't they go and follow Boris Johnson when he was

away on holiday, when the riots were taking place in London, and he

refused to come back? Why don't they go and view the editors of

newspapers, where they go on holiday? Why do they look at you

when you go on holiday? They sometimes do, actually. The basic

pay of a tube driver will soon be ?52,000. Ticket office workers are

already earning over ?35,000. Never mind a holiday on Copacabana beach,

or membership by your house for what you have done for them? When you

look at the papers this morning I see that Wayne Rooney is going to

get a ?70 million deal over the next four deals. I see NHS doctors are

getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot of people that do a lot of people

that, in my opinion, don't do anything for society. The top paid

people in this country should be doctors and nurses. Unfortunately,

we live in a jungle. If you are not strong, the bosses will walk all

over you. The reason why we got good terms and conditions is because we

fought for them. The reality is all of these three political parties,

liberals, Tories and Labour, they have all put no programme that to

defend working people. So we have to do it on our own. And that is why

you have done such a great job for your members and why union

membership has been rising, people want to be part of a successful

operation. But it has come at a cost for less well-paid workers, who

travel on the cheap? If everyone believes if London Underground tube

workers take a pay freeze they are going to redistribute the money to

the rest of the workers that work on the cheap... But the people that

travel on the tube, let's look at some of them, they are the ones that

suffer from your strike action. The starting salary of a cheap driver

now, ?48,000. The starting salary for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00

for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a teacher starting out. As your

members have spread, they have had to live through 24 strikes in 1

years to push up your members wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The

have put a pay freeze on by conservatives and liberals. The

police constables, so have the teachers. We have had the ability to

go and fight. The reality is, at the end of the day, as I have said

before, no one is going to put up the cause for workers. Not one

single party in parliament are fighting the cause for workers. They

all support privatisation, they all support keeping the anti-trade union

laws, they all support illegal wars around the world. Unless they have a

fighting trade union, our members pay would be as low as some others.

You said we could not care less if we have 1 million strikes. But these

people, the lower paid people who travel on the tube, who need it as

an essential service, they care Of course they care, I've said before

that I apologise to the troubling public for the dispute that took

place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It two to tango. If the boy never

imposed terms and conditions on us against our will... But you've got

great terms and conditions! But it's a constant battle, they are trying

to change them. Drivers are having their pay going up to ?50,000. You

said they are making it worse, it is going up. They are trying to make

things worse for workers. You said at the start of the interview that

the tube strike cost ?100 million in two days. It means that when members

go to work for two days it is worth ?100 million. That demonstrates what

they are worth. Only a fighting trade union can defend workers out

there. Your members should enjoy what you have got for them, because

it's not going to last, is it? Technology will change the whole way

your business operates. As Karl Marx says, you said I was a mixture of

Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and the Sopranos. I thought that was

quite funny... The Karl Marx part of it, the only thing that is constant

is change. We have been crying out for new technology. But for who To

put people on the dole, so they can't do anything and do anything

for society, or technology so everybody benefits, lower fares

better service and better terms and conditions for the workers. But you

have made Labour so expensive on the underground that management now has

a huge incentive to substitute technology for Labour. And that s

what it's going to do, it is closing the ticket offices and very soon,

starting in 2016, the driverless trains coming. What I am saying is

that your members should enjoy this because it's not going to last.

Driverless trains are not coming in, it is not safe. We have them in

Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it is not safe? These are new lines

that have been built so that when it breaks down, people can get out of

the tunnel. Would you want to be stuck on a summers day on the

Northern line? A pregnant woman who cannot get off the train? Absolute

panic that takes place, the reality is simple, it is a nonsense. It s

not going to happen because it is a Victorian network. On Docklands

railway for example it is driverless but when the train breaks down, it

is above ground on a very small section. All of these other cities

managed to have it. You remind me about Henry Ford in the 1930s when

he said, you see that robot over their, he cannot buy a car. All

sorts of new jobs are being created all the time in other areas. Come

back to the ticket offices, not many people use the ticket offices any

more, what is wrong with getting the stuff out of the ticket office on to

the concourses, meeting and greeting, helping disabled people

and tourists and making it a better service? They can do more on the

concourse than they can in the ticket office. Andrew, he took the

decision to close down every single ticket office. You cannot compare

for example Chesham with the likes of Heathrow. Are you telling me

people are going to be on a long transatlantic flight, arrived at

Heathrow and cannot get a ticket. The stuff will be redeployed on the

concourse. The simple problem is that it is not just about the

booking office, it is about people having a visual. If you are

partially sighted, you cannot use the machines. If British is not your

first language, you cannot use the offices. How many languages do your

members speak? I don't know, I struggle with English. The machines

can speak many different languages. They are dehumanising things. You

phone the bank, all you hear is press one for this, two for that.

People want to hear it human being and what makes the London

Underground so precious is that people want to see people. Having

well-dressed, motivated people out on the concourse, what part of that

don't you like? They will be on the concourse and they will have

machines. The fact is that London Underground did a risk assessment of

closing down their booking offices and it is clear that if you are

disabled, if you are partially sighted, London Underground becomes

more dangerous. You are posing the closing of ticket offices, opposing

driverless trains, when you opposed to the Oyster card when it came in?

No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal with it. It is not the only way

They should supplement the staff and the job. If more people used the

London Underground system, you want more staff to deal with them. Let's

look at your mandate to strike. Of your members who work on the Tube,

only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30% voted for the strike, so 70%

actually didn't vote to strike of your members, but the strike went

ahead. Isn't it right to have a higher threshold before you can

cause this disruption? It would be lovely if everyone voted but the

Tories took that away. We used to have ballots at the workplace. What

I'm trying to say to you is that we used to have a ballot box at the

workplace and the turnouts were higher. The Tories believe that if

they can have a secret ballot where ballot papers went to people's home

addresses, where they could be persuaded by the bosses, votes would

be different. Let's go back to the workplace ballot because you get a

bigger turnout. Will the RMT re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I

have no intention to. We got expelled from the Labour Party. But

you will give some money to the Labour councils? Those that support

our basic policies get money, we don't give money directly to MPs, we

give it to constituencies. Are you going to stand for re-election in

2016? I might do, I might not. You haven't decided yet? No, but more

than likely I will do. And will you stand again as an anti-EU candidate?

Yes, I am standing in London, and right across, completely different

to UKIP's policies. They are anti-European, they believe all of

the faults of Europe are down to the immigrants. We are anti-European

Union. If London Underground is as badly run as you think, why don t

you run for mayor? That is down the road, it has not come up yet. I m

not ruling anything out. I'm not ruling out getting your job on the

Sunday Politics. You have got to retire as well, you have got to put

your feet up. I will get you to renegotiate my package. Shall we go

on strike first? If I could have your wages, I would have two trips

to Rio every year. Good luck. And if you're in the London region they'll

have more on the Tube strike later in the programme. Let's get back to

those comments from Jose Manuel Barroso, and reaction to these

comments from John Swinney. Scottish Nationalists denied all along you

would have to reapply, we have now heard it without any caveats, you

will and you might not get in. I think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments

were preposterous this morning. He compared the situation to the one in

Kosovo. Britain is the member, Scotland is not the member. If you

go independent, you will have to reapply, he says. All of the

arrangements we have in place are compatible with the workings of the

European Union because we have been part of it for 40 years. The

propositions we put forward work about essentially negotiating the

continuity of Scotland's membership of the European Union and that

position has now been explained and debated and discussed and reinforced

by comments made by experts. We are talking about the president of the

European commission and we have spoken to him since he gave that

interview on the BBC this morning, it was an intervention that he made

that he wanted to lay out that Scotland should be in no doubt that

if they vote for independence they will have to apply for European

membership and they may not get it if it is vetoed by other members.

What he didn't say is that no state of the European Union have indicated

they would veto Scottish membership. The Spanish foreign

minister has. They have said that if there is an agreed process within

the UK that Scotland becomes an independent country, then Spain has

got nothing to say about the issue. That indicates to me clearly that

the Spanish government will have no stance to take on the Scottish

membership of the European Union because it is important that

Scotland is already part of the European Union, our laws are

compatible with the European Union and we play our part. The only

threat to Scotland's participation in the European Union is the

potential in/out referendum that David Cameron wants to have in 017.

It has not been a great week for you, has it? Everything you seem to

want, the monetary union, that has been blown out of the water by the

Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel Barroso has said you will have to

reapply to the European Union, it has not been a good week. You will

follow the debate closely, and the Sunday newspapers are full about the

backlash taking place within Scotland at the bullying remarks of

the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well

now? He is making an indirect comparison between Scotland and

Kosovo. If you vote for independence and you do have two apply again to

join, if you do get in it solves your currency problem because you

will have to accept the euro. We have set out an option on the

currency arrangements which would be to establish the currency union You

would have to adopt the euro. That's not rate because you have to be part

of the exchange-rate mechanism for two years before you can apply for

membership and an independent Scotland has no intention of signing

up to the exchange rate mechanism or the single currency. We are

concentrating on setting out our arguments for maintaining the pound

sterling, which is in the interests of Scotland and the UK. Thank you

for joining us this morning. This week's least surprising news

was that Labour won the safe seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East in a

by-election, following the death of the MP Paul Goggins. With the result

so predictable, all eyes were on whether this would be the sixth time

this parliament that UKIP would come second. And whether they'd chip away

at Labour's vote, not just the Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed

up all night to find out what it all meant. Forget the hype. Forget the

theorising. And yes - everyone has a theory. UKIP are learning from us.

What have they picked up from you? To be silly. Thanks to this week's

by-election we've got some hard evidence in paper form that helps

answer the question: How are UKIP doing? Turns out the answer is well,

but not well enough to beat Labour. I'm therefore claim -- declare that

Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have come second and increased their

share of the vote quite significantly. But their performance

isn't as good as their performances in some of the other by-elections

this parliament. Just don't suggest to them that their bandwagon has

ground to a halt. A week ago you'd told me you were going to win, what

happened? No, I didn't, I said I wanted to win. My mistake. How are

you feeling? It is a Labour stronghold, we always knew it was

going to be a fight. Labour were running scared of letting us present

our arguments. UKIP's campaign in Wythenshawe didn't point to the

right but to the left, with leaflets that branded Labour as a party of

millionaires who didn't care about the working class. It wasn't a

winning strategy but it did help them beat the Tories who focused on

dog mess and potholes instead. Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford

from Manchester Uni thinks they could be on the right track. He s

analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP voters for a new book, which could

confound the received wisdom about the party. The common media image of

the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy faced golf club and -- member from

the south-east of the UK and many UKIP activists do resemble that

stereotype to some extent, they do pick up a lot of activists from the

Conservative party, but UKIP voters are older, more working class, more

likely to live in Northern, urban areas, and they are much more

anti-system than anti-EU. And they're precisely the voters that

the Tory MP David Mowat needs if he's to hold on to his narrow

majority in the constituency just down the road. Do you have a UKIP

strategy in your seat? Our UKIP strategy is to point out that if

they want a referendum on if they want to be in the EU or not, there

is one way to get it, for the Conservatives to form their next

government and for me to be their MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy

what they want? I'm not sure it will be accidental. People need to

realise that if Ed Miliband is the Prime Minister, there will be no

referendum on the EU and UKIP may have made their point but they would

not have got their referendum. Over at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up

time. Not helping, Nigel? I had major surgery on the 19th of

November and I am still weak as a kitten. I can barely lift a pint

with my right hand, it is as serious as that. The answer is, Carreon

chaps, you're all doing a very good job. There will be carrying on to

the European elections in May, which will provide more evidence of if the

UKIP and wagon is powering on or if it is just parked. -- bandwagon

With me now is the Conservative MEP Vicky fraud and UKIP director of

medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He will also be a candidate in the

upcoming European elections. You came second in Manchester, but it

was not a close second. -- Vicky Ford. There is nothing that is a

game changer? I think it is very unusual for any insurgent party

like the liberals used to be, to actually win a safe seat of the

opposition. Those shocks, going back to Walkington etc, it tended to be

winning seats against an unpopular government. We did extraordinarily

well in Wythenshawe. Labour compressed the campaign down to the

shortest possible time and maxed out the postal vote. Whatever we think

about Labour, they do have an efficient machine, lots of union

activists signed a lot of people with a lot of know-how. It pushed

you into third place and showed the increasing irrelevance of the Tories

in the North? Tory minded voters in the North Sea more inclined to vote

for UKIP than you? I think by-elections are by-elections. The

same day, we took a seat from Labour in Birmingham. Well, that was a

by-election as well, so we should discount that as well. You should

learn from them, and we need to look forward to the elections in 201 .

That is in May this year, when we have a chance to really grab this

change in Europe, grab this change that we were talking about just now.

You don't worry, particularly in the north, if people want to vote

against Labour your supporters are drifting to UKIP? I think people

vote UKIP in a European election and they have done that for many years.

They vote that because they want change. The problem is, Patrick s

party have had MEPs since 1999 and they cannot deliver that change

They can't because they don't have seats in Westminster. It was on that

video, the only way we are going to get the change we want in Europe is

to have that referendum and have the renegotiation, and that means vote

Tory. What do you say to that? Let's get real, the Conservative Party has

not won a Parliamentary majority in 22 years. But the only way you will

get a referendum, if that is what motivates you, and with UKIP it is,

the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if

there is a majority Conservative government at the next election And

you could well stop that from happening? I don't accept that. I

believe, just as we forced David Cameron and into a referendum pledge

he explicitly ruled out making before through our success, and I

was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not

be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our

electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the

European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against

his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in

the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had

the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.

The only way you are going to get a renegotiation, a change in our

relationship with Europe and an in or out referendum is to have a

Conservative Government. Please UKIP, stop pretending that you can

deliver, because you don't deliver and you don't... We have delivered,

we forced David Cameron to give a pledge for a referendum he didn t

want to make. We will know if you are right about Ed Miliband or not,

you will have to tell us going into the campaign. If you are wrong, what

do you do then? There are still loads of reasons for people to vote

UKIP. A referendum is one thing David Cameron, and I asked him

directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath

of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed

Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably

maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has

been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential

for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those

disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming

towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We

want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people

who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.

That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.

UKIP MEPs do not turn up to defenders. If President Hollande is

as good as his word and says there will be no substantial

renegotiation, certainly no treaty change this side of 2017 when he is

up for the election, what do you do then? He is a French Socialist Prime

Minister, I don't expect him to agree. But you can't bring anything

of substance back with these negotiations. Then people will vote

to leave. The Prime Minister has been very clear that British public

opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a

renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what

we get with the deal on the table in 2017. If the status quo was what we

have today, I would vote to leave. But I want to renegotiate. We will

have to move on. For those viewers lucky enough to live in the East of

England, they will be seeing more of Patrick in a moment. You are

watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be

talking about, what else, the weather, with our political

I'm Arif Ansari. Coming up in the North West: Labour romps home in

Wythenshawe and Sale East, but will UKIP be peering over their shoulder

in May? Because the local elections are on the same day as the European

elections, that gives us a chance in the North West to make the

breakthroughs. And joining me in the studio this

week, the North West's newest MP, Mike Kane, Labour's winner in that

by`election, and UKIP's Deputy Leader and North West Euro MP, Paul

Nuttall. Congratulations. Has it sunk any you are the new MP? Not

quite, wait until I go to Westminster a week on Wednesday It

is humbling to be the new MP for your town. Sad circumstances with

the death of Paul Goggins who was an extraordinary, dedicated public

servant, but I am honoured to be elected with Labour's best result in

that constituency. But you need to wait a week until

there is a recess and you walk officially the MP.

Crush you are. A good result for Labour. A good result for us! We

went up of 15% in a period of four years and it set us up well for May.

But you would want to congratulate Mike! Congratulations, Mike.

So let's start by taking a look at the result in Wythenshawe and Sale

East. Labour won 55% of the vote, up 11% on the general election. UKIP

shot into second place, up 15% to 18. The Conservatives, on 15, were

down almost half. And the Liberal Democrats dived from 22% to just

below five, the minimum needed to retain their ?500 election deposit.

But what does it all tell us ahead of May's local and European

elections. Euan Doak reports. It was like a coronation, and yet

there were still a couple of hours before the votes had finished being

counted. But it was a measure of the comfort with which Labour held this

seat that the leader had already planned his visit.

There was only one party in British politics that could stand up for the

whole of the country. An increased majority, despite high

hopes from UKIP. The new kids on the block finished second for the sixth

successive by`election. But in this region, they have never won a

first`past`the`post election, their only councillor being a Conservative

defector. We have just completed our

selections for the European elections and the women have done

amazingly well. Their leader keen to broaden the

party's appeal, but optimistic about their chances in May.

Have a membership in the North is growing and many people will have

taken heart and an years either result from Wythenshawe. It is a

matter of time and because the local elections are on the same day as the

European elections, that gives us a chance in the North West to make the

first breakthroughs. And that could spell trouble for the

Conservatives, after they were pushed into third place here. A

standard by`election kicking for the party in power, perhaps, but a

strong UKIP showing in May could take Tory votes and the loss of key

seats in Trafford Council, the only metropolitan council they control in

the region. We need to fight hard in Trafford.

One thing that comes across in my constituency over the road or in the

Sale East wards is the number of people on the doorstep who will say

Trafford Council is very well run. For the Lib Dems, the story was

worse. Please, have some reaction! `` give

us some reaction. Bundled into fourth, they now face

being bundled out of town halls across the North West. But are UKIP

set to challenge the red rosette in the North West?

And we are also joined now by Dr Rob Ford, an expert on UKIP, at the

University of Manchester. What about the result? It was a solid but not

spectacular result for UKIP. Their main goal was to push Conservative

`` the Conservative party into third place so we are the local opposition

to Labour in this seat and if you are not happy with Labour, we are

the only ones that can challenge. But they are only three points ahead

of the Tories who would just say they will bounce back by the general

election. It probably was not as good a result as they would have

hoped for, but demographically, it was not a good seat for them, not as

working class as some of the seats where they do better. They can put

the squeeze on the Conservative vote in the way the Liberal Democrats

have the way they have bolted into second place. So how well have they

done? Solidly, not as well as they would have hoped but if people think

this is a severe setback, that is a misunderstanding.

How worried should the Tories and the Liberal Democrats be? The Tories

should be worried about their health in the North of the country because

again, they have been pushed into third big UKIP. UKIP are the

opposition to Labour in the North. No breakthrough. I said three weeks

ago we would finish second, around 20%, so we expected this, it is not

a perfect constituency. This is the fifth time we finished second to

Labour in the North of England in by`elections. I think we will go on

and do well here in May in the European elections where we are

pushing for three seats, on the local elections. You were second and

that is a success, but we behind Labour, not even close. `` far

behind. And only a small bit behind the Tories. It was all about

finishing second and keeping the momentum going. It was a short

campaign, people got a postal vote on February the 1st, not one to get

our message out, very difficult But you were not very quick, you

selected your candidate on the Sunday and waited until the Thursday

to tell us who it was. There needs to be a debate about postal voting

because since 2,000, postal votes OnDemand, it has exploded and it is

not good for democracy. 42% were postal votes, is that a problem It

was Labour's best result in that constituency and it has implications

across the North West. Other marginal seats, we have failed.

Seats would go away but up the next election with anywhere near the

swing we achieved in Wythenshawe. He is not wrong, but 2015 is not the

last election. There will be another in 2020 and in all the seats were

Labour sweeps into office, UKIP are in second place. By 2020, those

disgruntled with Labour or potentially lead to healthy

challenges. This is not a short`term political

movement. It is a long game we are playing. We are not a pressure group

but a political party and we want to make sure we are Labour's opposition

in the North we can also take seats. Is there a danger people will say

UKIP is not a big threat? The difference was that UKIP, the Tories

they did not have the people on the ground. Labour is stronger, we have

had two fantastic MPs, with Paul Goggins. I am a locally rooted

candidate and it was a fantastic result. We stuck to the issues.

Other parties started to talk about the process and postal votes, we

talked about pressures at Wythenshawe Hospital, council cuts,

and the cost of living crisis. So you are more in touch? I want to

come back to the postal vote issue. Because you have councillors were

ready in place on the ground, you sign up supporters for postal

votes, there is a 72 hour window... Nobody is forcing them to vote! It

is bad for democracy. You should read the literature and make your

decisions based on policy but you cannot do that with a 72 hour window

to get that literature out. Turnout was 28%, he is right about

that. It was a February by`election and that is run of the mill but we

achieved the best ever result on a lower turnout so that the small The

issue of postal votes, Paul Goggins was a massive champion for the

chronically sick and disabled. Which members would you remove the postal

vote from? If you want a postal vote, you should apply and give a

good reason, it you chronically ill, disabled, elderly, you are in the

armed services, not postal vote on demand, because these guys just sign

up their own supporters. So a pretty good night for my studio

guests, but less so for the other major parties. We described Sale as

all canals and cappuccinos the other week. And Elaine Dunkley is there

for you this morning, with a couple of MPs. Have you found those

cappuccinos? I have got the cappuccinos. We are

down by the waterside in sale. We have got the Liberal Democrat MP

Andrew Stone all joining us and the Conservative MP for Lancaster and

Fleetwood. It was not a great result for the Liberal Democrats in the

by`election. It certainly was not but it is the reverse we got in the

by`election in the last by`election when Labour lost. We have done a lot

of the people dreaming, pensions, income tax. We will put that message

across very strongly. It was not fought well, Nick Clegg was in the

North West and did not swing by what message is that? We put in the

resources we had and we had an excellent candidate. We put our best

foot forward but we have more work. Would you disappointed Nick Clegg

did not rouse the troops? These things are taken at a higher level

than me but I do not believe David Cameron came either. This was

Labour's strongest seat and they have one and that is the

surprisingly story. I do not think so!

David Cameron did not, either, how are you feeling? It was

disappointing. We had a good local candidate and it did not work out.

It was not a disaster that was predicted in terms of a sweep by

UKIP. It is a Labour win in a Labour area and credit to Paul Goggins the

previous MP, who was respected for the wiki did around here. He secured

the victory in a sensible Labour to continue. You are going to be

stepping down, will use secure a victory for the liberal Democrats?

Absolutely, I will make sure in the next 15 months my successor is

elected and across Greater Manchester that we return Liberal

Democrat MPs. You have a slim majority. 333. Thank you very much!

You are always sweating in politics but when you look at what we

achieved, 12 extra seats in the North West, and we are hoping to do

more and defends the existing seats. That is what the game is about and

by`elections are never an indicator of what happens in a general

election. There is disappointment in this by`election, only 29% of people

bothered to turn out, and that is a reflection on all the parties.

But are you rolling with the punches? What can you do to make

sure people vote for you? We are the only party who put forward a

long`term economic plan and that has stuck to that and is delivering in

terms of getting this country out of the mess the government left it in.

It is a good job he had Liberal Democrats alongside him to get the

details right on tax and pensions and the pupil premium, and making

sure we have a fairer society as well as a stronger economy.

We will get more rounds in of these after the show, back to the studio!

I think you are even interesting some dogs in local politics, which

is a first for us! How worried should they be?

The Liberal Democrats over the longer period `` over a long period

built themselves up as the opposition to Labour and their brand

is damaged in this part of the world.

If I was his successor, would be worried about my chances. Labour

could be sweeping back the vote they lost to the Liberal Democrats in the

past. They were hoping to hold their

deposit at the minimum and this is a reminder that there is no recovery.

They are struggling because the vote they picked up in the past was from

Labour so in coalition with the Conservatives, who are still not

popular in many parts of the North West, they are struggling as a

result. Thank you very much. Now, from a by`election battle to

the annual winter war over your council tax bills. This year, the

Government has again offered money to councils to freeze them. But some

are rejecting the offer because it is only half as much as the maximum

council tax rise of 2%. Stuart Pollitt reports.

While millions are fixated on the twists and turns of the Winter

Olympics, what about the traditional political winter sport?

We are talking about the annual battle over council tax bills. The

government wants a freeze on rates and it is incentivising local

councils to follow suit. But for some local authorities, they say

that is a slippery slope to more cuts.

Cuts to council budgets mean volunteers now fund and run this

centre. Rossendale Council have tried to do

their best for us but what they cannot do is put money into it. If

it was a penny on the rates, that would get something like this back

on its feet. You could argue it is a penny for this and 5p for that.

A penny for the thoughts of this theatre company. They are putting

the final touches to what they worry will be their final show at Preston

Guild Hall's Charter Theatre. The City Council has proposed ending the

venue's ?1 million subsidy, putting its future in doubt.

That could be the end of us because we bring in the numbers because of

the experience they get. They will not get that anywhere else around

Preston, there is no theatre that compares to the Charter Theatre It

would be devastating. The council is making budget cuts,

as well as proposing a two per cent rise in council tax.

Any entertainment complex needs a big subsidy and we cannot afford

that any more, we are making cuts unfortunately and we are having to

put council tax up again. I put this down to the way we have been treated

by central government. It is a message other councils are

echoing. In Wirral, they are putting up bills, despite the Government's

offer. But others, like Manchester, are taking the Government offer and

freezing rates. You could describe it as a bribe. We

recognise it is a difficult position for residents so we will take the

money. It is an incentive to keep council tax down. We cannot do that

for ever because we are in a difficult position because of

government cuts. Over ?500 million to help hard`working families, and

they should be looking at how they deliver services to protect front

line services. Despite the name, council tax isn't

just the council's fee. They form the bulk of the charge, more than

three quarters, but there are also levies, or precepts from parish

councils, the Fire Service and the police.

Cheshire Police are the only force in the region freezing their council

tax precept. This centre in Poynton is one reason they can afford it.

Money is being saved by sharing a building with the fire and Ambulance

Service. But the PCC is also looking for volunteers to take on some

roles. Is there pressure is a Conservative

to freeze the precept because that is what the government wants?

I will not toe the party line for the sake of it. I have taken the

decision to freeze the precept on the council tax because there is no

need to increase it this year. That may change in future years.

But this debate between central and local government isn't likely to

change. At least, not until this lot get their shot at the Winter

Olympics. You are a former Manchester City

councillor, should bills be frozen? I think he pointed out that

Manchester will take the money this year, it is up to individual

councils. Jeff said that residents are suffering severe pressure and my

argument is this, 285 or `` ?28 per head has been cut from Manchester

residents, and if you look at David Cameron 's constituency in West

Oxfordshire, they have had a cut of ?59, how can that be fair? Because

they do not get so much money to begin with.

It is about the needs of people in Manchester compared to needs of

people in Oxfordshire, it is not fair they only suffered a ?59 cut

and Jeff is dealing with massive budget cuts across Manchester.

And Conservatives in Trafford are dealing with those and services are

being decimated and that cannot be fair. My job in Parliament will be

to fight for a fair deal for Wythenshawe and Sale East.

Should bills be frozen? I would like to think so but it should be down to

individual councils, they know best how their communities are affected

by cuts. They live and die by these decisions in May if local people do

not agree and think they are getting a fair deal, they can vote for

another political party in opposition.

Do you agree with Labour that the cuts to local government in the

North West have been too deep? They have been disproportionate to the

rest of the country and it has not been fair. The Tories have targeted

areas where they do not have Conservative MPs or councils. I

would like to see councils given a bigger opportunity to raise their

own revenue and make the decisions how they spend their own money.

You could argue if council services are being curtailed because of these

cuts, putting council tax up to boost services might be better for

local people. That is a very difficult argument,

there is a cost of living crisis. People are seeing fuel bills and

energy bills going through the roof and people in the North West have

not seen wages increase to the same extent as other people in the

country. So there are difficult choices. I go back to the fact it is

unfair that Manchester people and people in Trafford have to suffer a

five times bigger cut from a central government grant than somebody in

David Cameron 's constituency in West `` in West Oxfordshire.

Time for the rest of the week's news now. Here is 60 Seconds.

Blackburn MP Jack Straw urged families with small children to

ensure they are not left alone with animals, after 11`month`old

Ava`Jayne Corless was killed by a dog at a house in the town. Babies

and small children do not mix with pets.

The schools watchdog said it was "seriously concerned" about the

quality of secondary education across Cumbria. In Barrow, all three

state secondaries are now deemed to be failing.

Liverpool MP Steve Rotheram questioned the Home Secretary over

concerns the families of Hillsborough victims may have been

put under police surveillance. If they do find evidence drawing the

investigation that suggests surveillance has taken place, they

will pursue it. Merseyside's six councils got the

go`ahead to form a combined authority from the first of April.

They will join forces on economic development, transport and

employment. And Blackpool Council gave the Green

light to keep drinking. The licensing committee rejected a

police request to ban booze sales after three in the morning.

That is it for this week. You will be able to pick up this discussion

at the European elections and the local elections in May, but thank

you very much to my guests. direction? No, in real terms now the

rent is falling in London. Andrew, back to you.

Welcome back. Let's start by talking about the weather. What could be

more British? It has been practically the only topic of

conversation for the past few weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has

made the direct link, declaims, between this exceptionally wet and

windy weather and climate change. That's an interesting development,

taking place. Ed Miliband is the author of the 2008 Climate Change

Act, so he has to stick to that line or his life 's work goes up in

smoke. When he passed it, there was Westminster consensus. Now the

Tories are beginning to appeal off. UKIP has definitely peeled off.

Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to their guns, there is now a debate?

It has moved from consensus to very fragile consensus. It's an

interesting tactic for Ed Miliband to take. He could either approach

the floods talking about government failures and handling, instead he

has gone for the intellectual argument, try and turn this into a

debate about ideology and climate change. I think he will find that

quite difficult. Partly, I don't think the public I get listening to

an argument like that. Partly because only one in three of the

public totally agree with him. The polls for The Times think that about

one in three think that man-made I'm a change is responsible for these

floods, the rest do not. I'm not sure that the interventions will be

particularly well picked up. It puts David Cameron in a difficult

position. He was hugging those huskies, it was going to be the

greenest Government ever, and now he has an Environment secretary that

doesn't really believe in climate change. Well, we don't know where he

stands. That is not where he was in 2010. It has always been sold to us

that he is statesman-like and pragmatic, but that drifts into he

doesn't really believe anything This is a worldwide phenomenon now.

You've got the Canadian government, they are pretty sceptical these

days. The new Australian government is pretty sceptical. The Obama

administration has been attacked by the green movement across the United

States, he is probably about to approve the keystone pipeline that

will take over the Texas refineries. What was a huge consensus across the

globe is a guinea to break down Probably started to break down about

the time of the financial crisis, the age of austerity, when suddenly

people had more to worry about than green issues. Even at home it is a

slightly risky tactic for Ed Miliband. The idea there is a

scientific consensus on this, there isn't. You look at Professor Collins

this morning, climate systems expert, saying, actually, the jet

stream is not operating further south because of climate change Or

if it is, it is beyond our knowledge. He flies in the face of

what Ed Miliband as saying. He's saying the wet weather is caused by

global warming, the head of science at Exeter University says the IPCC

originally looked at whether climate change could affect what happens to

the jet stream and, because it had no evidence it had any effect, it

decided not to include it at all in the IPCC report. The problem we have

got is that any individual phenomenon is difficult to attribute

to climate change. But the Labour Leader just have? And The Met Office

have done the same thing. It's a fragile in, but overall we can say

we are getting more extreme weather than ever. The most extreme weather,

hurricanes and tropical storm is, they have been in decline. Equally,

we have had ten of the hottest summers in the last ten years since

1998. Overall, there is a case that can be made that we are getting

more. Each individual thing is difficult to say. Until recently,

almost everyone agreed with that case. Now the parties are reflecting

differences. I wanted to move on, what did you make of two interesting

things that happened with the interview with UKIP and the Tories,

one Cory saying I am voting to come out, and the UKIP chap saying we are

maxed out on Tory defectors, we can't get any more? I think that was

a dangerous admission from Patrick O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially

saying that their vote has peaked. Looking at the by-elections, I'm not

sure that was a particularly wise reflection on that. They got 18 ,

23% last year. The case he is making is that there are more votes to be

gained by attracting former Labour voters than former Tories. I'm not

sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP that tries to make benefit

protection and some other kind of social issues at the heart really

sits comfortably with their insurgent, anti-state message. I

don't think it will do particularly well. This is why they are pushing

the message, it is their response to the idea and suggestion of a Tory

rallying cry that they vote for Nigel Farage, and it is really a

vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a very good journalist, a very good

commentator. He answered almost as a commentator rather than head of

communications for a political party. The Government are still

trying to rid itself of troublesome priests, an attack on welfare

reforms from the Catholic Archbishop of Westminster. Let's have a look

and see what he said. The basic safety net that was there to

guarantee that people would not be left in hunger or in destitution has

actually been torn apart. It no longer exists. And it is a real

real, dramatic crisis. The second is that, in this context, the

administration of social assistance, I am told, has become more and more

punitive. If applicants do not get it right, they have to wait and they

have to wait for ten days, two weeks, with nothing. Has the basic

safety net disappeared? I don't see how it is possible to argue that. It

is certainly the case that there have been reductions in various

benefits, some benefits have been scrapped and there is a welfare

reform programme. But this country is still spending ?94 billion a year

on working age benefits. Excluding pensions? The idea that this equates

to some sort of wiping out of the safety net is... He has gone on a

full frontal assault on the Tory reforms, not the kind of attack that

Labour would be prepared to make? No, they know that it doesn't play

very well in the country. He's not up for election. Whether or not you

agree about the safety net, I think the welfare reforms have been poorly

managed and I don't think that is a full dispute. Universal credit, it

is in some very long grass. It had some stupid ideas, like the idea

that it would be paid monthly, instead of weekly, meaning that

people are more likely to run out of money by the end of the month. It's

interesting, in the past, when members of the cloth have attacked

the government for welfare reforms, the Government have responded by

trying to paint them as lefties ideological driven. I think that is

hard in this case, an assault made deliberately in the Telegraph from

somebody who feels they come from a centre-right position. I think there

will be a bit of awkwardness about this intervention. It is not the

kind of thing they wanted to see. Is it politically damaging for the

Government? It is if it makes them look mean-spirited. But that is the

problem with welfare reforms. You can say all sorts of things about

Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But the whole thing springs from a moral

mission, as he sees it, to liberate the poor and extend opportunity One

of the worst moments for the Tories was blaming the low level of voting

in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact that the constituency had, in the

words of one senior Tory, the largest council estate in Europe

inside its constituency boundary. The point being what? Because you

live in a council estate you don't vote? That they don't see people

living in council estate as one of them, not an impulse that Margaret

Thatcher would have had. I think it's dangerous if they are painting

is people as opponents rather than trying to win them over. When they

do vote, they determine elections! The idea that there is no such thing

as a working-class Tory is toxic. I want to show you a picture. There we

go. It is behind me, on the 5th of February, it is all men. And then,

on the next, look at that, the 2th, there are a few women. Not exactly

many, but some. It is an improvement. But it is so

transparent, isn't it? We phoned up one of the women that sat behind

David Cameron to ask, why the sudden change? They said, I don't know why

you are bothering to ask, it is completely natural, we didn't do

anything to stage manage it. Did his nose gets longer? It is something

that is very transparent and depressing about the way politicians

choose to react to these moments. Every week they put two women behind

David Cameron, so that a tight shot shows them. It is called the

doughnut. They don't have many women to shuffle around, there are only

four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet. Also, the fact that women, younger

women in particular, are much less likely to vote Tory than five or ten

years ago. David Cameron, it drives and furious, he is obviously aware

this is one of the biggest potential demographic problem is that they

have. It also reminds us of how the public can actually see the wiring

behind a lot of the stuff. Do they really think your blog so stupid

that they will not notice that the following week the front bench is

packed with women? I think it just increases contempt for the entire

rocket. It is an issue where Labour seem to have pulled ahead of the

other parties. We are being told that 50% of candidates in their 100

target seats will be female. It looks like the composition of Labour

continues to go towards a kind of rough 50-50 split, eventually.

Although that is true, I think the faces we see on the telly, Ed

Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie, they are almost always men. There is

a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female face that goes up a lot. But really,

the number of e-mails they put up is proportionally a lot smaller. Is the

Miliband team still a men's club? Behind the scenes, it is very

blokey. It's been described as a kind of seminar room at a

university. I think that is true. The Observer did the cutout and keep

of the people behind Mr Miliband. As opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with

lots of women in it, it was very male. The one reason Labour have all

of these women to put up in constituencies is all women short

lists is. If Tories want to change things, I know they can be prone to

minute -- and in relation, but they work. In ten years time, I think it

will give Labour an immense advantage. By then, I think they

will have a woman leader. Who will that be? Potentially somebody not

even yet in the Commons. You can see how quickly people can rise to the

top, but the Labour Party is going to be increasingly donated by women.

Do you think there will be a Labour Leader before Theresa May becomes

leader of the Conservatives? I think it is ultimately about Osborne

trying to stop Boris. I think I would be astonished if she managed

it. The first female Labour Leader? I would pick Rachel Reeves the way

it is currently going, she knows her stuff and does well on TV. That is

all for this week. We have a week off now. I'll be back in the week

after next. Remember, if it is Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics,

unless it's a Parliamentary recess.