02/04/2017 Sunday Politics North West


02/04/2017

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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:39.

The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained

:00:40.:00:42.

But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal

:00:43.:00:47.

After a momentous week, Britain's journey out

:00:48.:00:52.

Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home

:00:53.:00:56.

We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.

:00:57.:01:01.

And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -

:01:02.:01:04.

what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?

:01:05.:01:07.

And in the north-west, our first flight to the home of flower power.

:01:08.:01:10.

bring some post-Brexit peace and love?

:01:11.:01:18.

changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from

:01:19.:01:20.

there constituencies. And with me, as always,

:01:21.:01:28.

the best and the brightest political panel in the business -

:01:29.:01:30.

Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be

:01:31.:01:33.

tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause

:01:34.:01:38.

22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something

:01:39.:01:41.

of a shock. The guidelines propose

:01:42.:01:43.

that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade

:01:44.:01:48.

deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted

:01:49.:01:51.

strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away

:01:52.:01:57.

in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,

:01:58.:01:59.

Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look

:02:00.:02:05.

after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected

:02:06.:02:11.

all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar

:02:12.:02:16.

cannot be changed without the agreement of the people

:02:17.:02:18.

of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not

:02:19.:02:21.

want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,

:02:22.:02:23.

in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying

:02:24.:02:26.

that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is

:02:27.:02:38.

this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.

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Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again

:02:44.:02:47.

and again is that at different points individual countries can

:02:48.:02:52.

start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you

:02:53.:02:59.

have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to

:03:00.:03:03.

be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit

:03:04.:03:10.

after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is

:03:11.:03:18.

triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto

:03:19.:03:22.

it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald

:03:23.:03:27.

Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to

:03:28.:03:33.

say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual

:03:34.:03:36.

countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking

:03:37.:03:42.

to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I

:03:43.:03:50.

think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number

:03:51.:03:57.

10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter

:03:58.:04:00.

of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal

:04:01.:04:05.

the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things

:04:06.:04:10.

looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed

:04:11.:04:16.

over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this

:04:17.:04:19.

incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there

:04:20.:04:25.

could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,

:04:26.:04:30.

it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going

:04:31.:04:34.

entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar

:04:35.:04:39.

got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the

:04:40.:04:44.

Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not

:04:45.:04:49.

see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of

:04:50.:04:52.

difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to

:04:53.:04:57.

Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.

:04:58.:05:03.

For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power

:05:04.:05:08.

grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are

:05:09.:05:13.

not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials

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after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it

:05:18.:05:24.

is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very

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much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is

:05:32.:05:34.

still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the

:05:35.:05:39.

next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly

:05:40.:05:45.

empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has

:05:46.:05:52.

got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They

:05:53.:05:55.

will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy

:05:56.:06:00.

about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so

:06:01.:06:05.

much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been

:06:06.:06:09.

absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!

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Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now

:06:21.:06:25.

changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of

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months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking

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up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,

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the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth

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journey to the exit door? Or can we expect

:06:47.:06:50.

a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back

:06:51.:06:51.

control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually

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involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting

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in a car. It is only a few hundred metres

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from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start

:06:59.:07:01.

of a much longer one and we do not know exactly

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where we will all end up. This is a historic moment

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from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,

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sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's

:07:12.:07:20.

ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset

:07:21.:07:23.

to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,

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hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it

:07:27.:07:31.

all meant for the So, here it is, a copy

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of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's

:07:35.:07:41.

proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal

:07:42.:07:47.

at the same time. It also mentioned the word

:07:48.:07:50.

"security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement

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would mean cooperation in the fight against crime

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and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got

:07:56.:07:59.

to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European

:08:00.:08:02.

policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access

:08:03.:08:08.

information in the same way as we would as a member,

:08:09.:08:12.

so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate

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a continuing relationship that enables us to work together

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in the way that we have. That night, the

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Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad

:08:21.:08:22.

Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,

:08:23.:08:28.

having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is

:08:29.:08:31.

actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers

:08:32.:08:40.

suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool

:08:41.:08:55.

and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area

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if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,

:08:56.:08:56.

as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we

:08:57.:08:56.

will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement

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of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other

:09:00.:09:02.

business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,

:09:03.:09:05.

outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British

:09:06.:09:08.

law to change later, It is not without its critics

:09:09.:09:10.

but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,

:09:11.:09:15.

it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek

:09:16.:09:17.

a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,

:09:18.:09:24.

we are doing so from a position where we have the same

:09:25.:09:26.

standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver

:09:27.:09:28.

on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law

:09:29.:09:34.

in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small

:09:35.:09:37.

issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle

:09:38.:09:44.

with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said

:09:45.:09:47.

they were not allowed Great(!)

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so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been

:09:50.:09:57.

a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,

:09:58.:10:00.

Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting

:10:01.:10:03.

and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines

:10:04.:10:06.

for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,

:10:07.:10:12.

we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss

:10:13.:10:15.

the framework for our Starting parallel talks

:10:16.:10:18.

on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,

:10:19.:10:21.

will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not

:10:22.:10:30.

pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is

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already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get

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the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set

:10:42.:10:44.

elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions

:10:45.:10:47.

are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is

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celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent

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by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a

:11:04.:11:11.

future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient

:11:12.:11:15.

progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this

:11:16.:11:22.

phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence

:11:23.:11:28.

and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of

:11:29.:11:33.

nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that

:11:34.:11:37.

might be reached on things talked about early on will be very

:11:38.:11:43.

provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the

:11:44.:11:47.

sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.

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Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk

:11:52.:11:56.

of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not

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remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.

:12:00.:12:07.

A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said

:12:08.:12:11.

that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see

:12:12.:12:17.

how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are

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wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see

:12:24.:12:29.

what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,

:12:30.:12:33.

there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years

:12:34.:12:37.

and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept

:12:38.:12:43.

that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels

:12:44.:12:48.

is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to

:12:49.:12:56.

make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a

:12:57.:13:01.

really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,

:13:02.:13:07.

speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.

:13:08.:13:10.

But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I

:13:11.:13:20.

cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the

:13:21.:13:24.

negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.

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The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years

:13:31.:13:33.

after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must

:13:34.:13:38.

remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of

:13:39.:13:42.

the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It

:13:43.:13:47.

depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are

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getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any

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judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you

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know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And

:14:02.:14:06.

then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is

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something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this

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stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,

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and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer

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to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in

:14:27.:14:31.

its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like

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yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they

:14:38.:14:42.

will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do

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not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try

:14:46.:14:49.

another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a

:14:50.:14:52.

comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints

:14:53.:14:58.

on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept

:14:59.:15:06.

that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We

:15:07.:15:10.

will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own

:15:11.:15:15.

decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the

:15:16.:15:22.

negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in

:15:23.:15:27.

the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.

:15:28.:15:31.

No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free

:15:32.:15:37.

trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very

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important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of

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the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without

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having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I

:15:56.:16:00.

think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of

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the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no

:16:08.:16:11.

deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will

:16:12.:16:17.

get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,

:16:18.:16:21.

because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But

:16:22.:16:29.

it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the

:16:30.:16:33.

world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would

:16:34.:16:38.

be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with

:16:39.:16:42.

everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to

:16:43.:16:46.

get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the

:16:47.:16:51.

interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned

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in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair

:16:56.:16:59.

government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any

:17:00.:17:05.

free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British

:17:06.:17:11.

government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it

:17:12.:17:16.

absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this

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week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is

:17:23.:17:25.

halfway across the world to protect another small group of British

:17:26.:17:28.

people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am

:17:29.:17:34.

absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the

:17:35.:17:38.

same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.

:17:39.:17:49.

This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about

:17:50.:17:51.

sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any

:17:52.:17:54.

free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to

:17:55.:17:57.

Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The

:17:58.:18:03.

British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests

:18:04.:18:09.

of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000

:18:10.:18:13.

people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important

:18:14.:18:17.

Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will

:18:18.:18:23.

be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including

:18:24.:18:27.

free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this

:18:28.:18:28.

morning. Although sometimes it seems

:18:29.:18:32.

like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening

:18:33.:18:33.

other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,

:18:34.:18:35.

there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot

:18:36.:18:38.

up for grabs. Local elections take place

:18:39.:18:41.

on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections

:18:42.:18:44.

in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,

:18:45.:18:49.

usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually

:18:50.:18:56.

fares better are not Six regions of England will also

:18:57.:19:02.

hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,

:19:03.:19:06.

and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,

:19:07.:19:09.

with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands

:19:10.:19:16.

among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32

:19:17.:19:18.

councils are being contested, many of them affected

:19:19.:19:21.

by boundary changes. Since these seats were last

:19:22.:19:23.

contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each

:19:24.:19:26.

of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected

:19:27.:19:31.

in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,

:19:32.:19:38.

though independent candidates currently hold

:19:39.:19:39.

a quarter of council seats. According to the latest

:19:40.:19:42.

calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,

:19:43.:19:44.

the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,

:19:45.:19:49.

despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England

:19:50.:19:52.

looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning

:19:53.:19:59.

100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,

:20:00.:20:01.

predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system

:20:02.:20:06.

usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,

:20:07.:20:08.

the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats

:20:09.:20:11.

they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high

:20:12.:20:14.

water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections

:20:15.:20:22.

suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest

:20:23.:20:25.

gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's

:20:26.:20:27.

very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice

:20:28.:20:30.

of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start

:20:31.:20:37.

with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?

:20:38.:20:42.

Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part

:20:43.:20:46.

rural England. The only control three of the council they are

:20:47.:20:51.

defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly

:20:52.:20:56.

a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion

:20:57.:20:59.

polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the

:21:00.:21:03.

position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring

:21:04.:21:15.

of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking

:21:16.:21:17.

about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50

:21:18.:21:20.

losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council

:21:21.:21:23.

areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,

:21:24.:21:27.

could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council

:21:28.:21:31.

control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,

:21:32.:21:35.

what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the

:21:36.:21:39.

big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of

:21:40.:21:43.

the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local

:21:44.:21:47.

by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and

:21:48.:21:55.

in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a

:21:56.:21:57.

Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of

:21:58.:22:01.

ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is

:22:02.:22:04.

uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they

:22:05.:22:09.

do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do

:22:10.:22:12.

terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing

:22:13.:22:16.

relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely

:22:17.:22:21.

to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in

:22:22.:22:52.

the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour

:22:53.:22:55.

Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We

:22:56.:22:57.

are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the

:22:58.:23:00.

mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general

:23:01.:23:03.

election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in

:23:04.:23:05.

the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general

:23:06.:23:08.

election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the

:23:09.:23:11.

West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a

:23:12.:23:13.

headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to

:23:14.:23:15.

lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for

:23:16.:23:18.

their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his

:23:19.:23:21.

party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty

:23:22.:23:27.

dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.

:23:28.:23:30.

Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always

:23:31.:23:36.

remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.

:23:37.:23:43.

Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.

:23:44.:23:48.

The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP

:23:49.:23:54.

will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is

:23:55.:23:57.

happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion

:23:58.:24:02.

polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did

:24:03.:24:06.

relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather

:24:07.:24:11.

disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign

:24:12.:24:15.

of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP

:24:16.:24:23.

ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by

:24:24.:24:26.

double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently

:24:27.:24:30.

control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the

:24:31.:24:34.

question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative

:24:35.:24:38.

revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government

:24:39.:24:43.

by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of

:24:44.:24:47.

the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in

:24:48.:24:53.

the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose

:24:54.:24:56.

control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22

:24:57.:25:02.

local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose

:25:03.:25:06.

ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,

:25:07.:25:11.

labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff

:25:12.:25:16.

could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.

:25:17.:25:22.

Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour

:25:23.:25:24.

control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid

:25:25.:25:40.

Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in

:25:41.:25:42.

the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be

:25:43.:25:45.

judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion

:25:46.:25:47.

polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it

:25:48.:25:50.

affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect

:25:51.:25:57.

his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by

:25:58.:26:00.

this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and

:26:01.:26:05.

others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence

:26:06.:26:11.

and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some

:26:12.:26:16.

kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the

:26:17.:26:20.

argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12

:26:21.:26:27.

months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,

:26:28.:26:34.

up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some

:26:35.:26:38.

impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will

:26:39.:26:44.

mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it

:26:45.:26:50.

will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That

:26:51.:26:55.

is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive

:26:56.:27:00.

reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the

:27:01.:27:04.

fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she

:27:05.:27:07.

believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West

:27:08.:27:12.

who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were

:27:13.:27:15.

worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.

:27:16.:27:19.

The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got

:27:20.:27:24.

other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the

:27:25.:27:28.

success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says

:27:29.:27:32.

this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face

:27:33.:27:39.

before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a

:27:40.:27:44.

good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results

:27:45.:27:50.

will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem

:27:51.:28:10.

threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory

:28:11.:28:13.

party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried

:28:14.:28:16.

about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems

:28:17.:28:18.

because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve

:28:19.:28:20.

about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding

:28:21.:28:22.

repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think

:28:23.:28:25.

he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership

:28:26.:28:27.

contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to

:28:28.:28:32.

be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they

:28:33.:28:38.

were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,

:28:39.:28:43.

it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of

:28:44.:28:47.

self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.

:28:48.:28:49.

Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it

:28:50.:28:52.

Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew

:28:53.:28:55.

Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces

:28:56.:28:57.

It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the

:28:58.:29:02.

Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.

:29:03.:29:04.

If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.

:29:05.:29:08.

Labour is trying to do something much harder,

:29:09.:29:11.

which is to try and speak for the whole country,

:29:12.:29:13.

and by the way, that is another part of

:29:14.:29:15.

Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's

:29:16.:29:19.

Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,

:29:20.:29:25.

let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.

:29:26.:29:27.

By the way, there is more that unites Remainers

:29:28.:29:33.

and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common

:29:34.:29:35.

concerns about the way the country is run.

:29:36.:29:40.

Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.

:29:41.:29:45.

Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on

:29:46.:29:50.

Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed

:29:51.:29:55.

Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms

:29:56.:30:02.

with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I

:30:03.:30:06.

campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I

:30:07.:30:10.

represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.

:30:11.:30:14.

Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky

:30:15.:30:19.

nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this

:30:20.:30:24.

democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant

:30:25.:30:32.

legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before

:30:33.:30:40.

Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I

:30:41.:30:46.

will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election

:30:47.:30:55.

date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across

:30:56.:30:58.

the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what

:30:59.:31:04.

Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We

:31:05.:31:08.

have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,

:31:09.:31:16.

your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we

:31:17.:31:23.

have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those

:31:24.:31:26.

types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies

:31:27.:31:30.

that decide general elections. The important places in the elections

:31:31.:31:36.

are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are

:31:37.:31:43.

marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well

:31:44.:31:47.

in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to

:31:48.:31:51.

campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who

:31:52.:31:58.

voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime

:31:59.:32:04.

Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen

:32:05.:32:09.

that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is

:32:10.:32:16.

important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the

:32:17.:32:22.

trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people

:32:23.:32:28.

who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for

:32:29.:32:32.

other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate

:32:33.:32:36.

that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am

:32:37.:32:41.

not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see

:32:42.:32:46.

online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to

:32:47.:32:51.

switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was

:32:52.:32:55.

not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our

:32:56.:33:01.

neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from

:33:02.:33:06.

voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among

:33:07.:33:14.

nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the

:33:15.:33:18.

mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,

:33:19.:33:24.

in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is

:33:25.:33:34.

less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond

:33:35.:33:39.

extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of

:33:40.:33:43.

elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate

:33:44.:33:50.

city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that

:33:51.:33:56.

of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an

:33:57.:34:08.

anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:09.:34:11.

from memory. We have not got elections in London but our

:34:12.:34:16.

elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...

:34:17.:34:26.

What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the

:34:27.:34:30.

opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it

:34:31.:34:36.

is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do

:34:37.:34:40.

well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,

:34:41.:34:47.

Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the

:34:48.:34:53.

general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?

:34:54.:34:59.

What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative

:35:00.:35:04.

garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me

:35:05.:35:07.

about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to

:35:08.:35:12.

you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people

:35:13.:35:16.

the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks

:35:17.:35:22.

so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements

:35:23.:35:28.

and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey

:35:29.:35:30.

was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education

:35:31.:35:35.

spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.

:35:36.:35:40.

Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the

:35:41.:35:44.

Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are

:35:45.:35:48.

working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does

:35:49.:35:53.

it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three

:35:54.:36:00.

times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a

:36:01.:36:04.

huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter

:36:05.:36:08.

and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in

:36:09.:36:16.

the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls

:36:17.:36:23.

are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of

:36:24.:36:27.

government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that

:36:28.:36:30.

the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years

:36:31.:36:34.

because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes

:36:35.:36:40.

this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault

:36:41.:36:45.

on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for

:36:46.:36:50.

government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading

:36:51.:36:54.

for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me

:36:55.:36:58.

have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an

:36:59.:37:01.

individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British

:37:02.:37:05.

people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are

:37:06.:37:08.

letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election

:37:09.:37:16.

question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an

:37:17.:37:21.

early election? The general election coordinator called for a general

:37:22.:37:26.

election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in

:37:27.:37:29.

staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the

:37:30.:37:35.

Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter

:37:36.:37:39.

having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the

:37:40.:37:43.

election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.

:37:44.:37:51.

Our first flight to the home of flower power.

:37:52.:38:05.

Could a bit of California dreaming bring some

:38:06.:38:07.

It's all about connectivity and, great,

:38:08.:38:12.

We always have wanted to trade with the EU.

:38:13.:38:16.

We want to trade with the rest of the world as well.

:38:17.:38:19.

If San Francisco doesn't do it for you, perhaps Wigan

:38:20.:38:22.

Joining me this week are Labour's Lisa Nandy and Graham Evans

:38:23.:38:26.

We also welcome Ukip treasurer John Bickley.

:38:27.:38:31.

I mean, it's still a shock in some respect.

:38:32.:38:37.

It took me some time to actually believe we'd won

:38:38.:38:40.

the referendum but certainly, the tripling of Article 50

:38:41.:38:42.

and the deliverance of the letter to the EU is a seminal moment

:38:43.:38:46.

That's true, that's how the Prime Minister put it, isn't it?

:38:47.:38:53.

It did feel like a key moment after all

:38:54.:38:55.

of these incremental changes, didn't it, Graham?

:38:56.:38:56.

It was a very special day on Wednesday but not least,

:38:57.:39:00.

if I can just mention, PC Palmer

:39:01.:39:02.

from the week before, it was only a week

:39:03.:39:04.

and although we had PMQs and then we had the Prime Minister's

:39:05.:39:07.

statement, we did remember with a Book of Remembrance

:39:08.:39:09.

in the house, so we did remember a PC Palmer and his bravery

:39:10.:39:12.

That was at the beginning of the talks, wasn't it?

:39:13.:39:16.

But we did go on to mark the triggering of Article 50,

:39:17.:39:19.

Well, I expected it to feel very historic

:39:20.:39:22.

It's been quite a sombre time in Westminster because

:39:23.:39:25.

of everything that's happened and then it was quite a shock off

:39:26.:39:28.

the back of that to see the letter that

:39:29.:39:30.

the Prime Minister wrote to trigger Article 50

:39:31.:39:33.

that somehow the UK would be willing

:39:34.:39:38.

to trade our security cooperation with other EU countries

:39:39.:39:42.

for a better deal on trade and it seemed like a very odd contrast

:39:43.:39:46.

between what happened last week, what happened this week...

:39:47.:39:48.

That's the way it's been perceived by some.

:39:49.:39:50.

So quite a lot to think about, really.

:39:51.:39:54.

But first, we are four days down but there are 726 to go

:39:55.:39:57.

before we officially leave the European Union.

:39:58.:39:59.

This week, there were plans to broaden the horizons of our

:40:00.:40:02.

two biggest cities beyond Europe, including the first flights

:40:03.:40:05.

from outside London to the birthplace of flower power.

:40:06.:40:08.

Mark Edwardson wonders if that means the future's

:40:09.:40:10.

# If you're going to San Francisco...#

:40:11.:40:21.

Manchester and San Francisco - the similarities run deep,

:40:22.:40:25.

according to one delegate on the inaugural direct flight

:40:26.:40:28.

Manchester's always reinvented cultures, history, you know,

:40:29.:40:35.

we played a role in the abolition of slavery,

:40:36.:40:37.

Silicon Valley, I mean, that all came

:40:38.:40:41.

from the counterculture of the 60s and 70s.

:40:42.:40:44.

Spirit in the sky - 30 of the region's leading

:40:45.:40:46.

tech firms were represented on the flight.

:40:47.:40:52.

Many of them planning to make 2017 the second summer of love.

:40:53.:40:59.

Brexit is something that's constantly talked about

:41:00.:41:02.

I personally don't think it's going to affect

:41:03.:41:05.

The barriers to entry in that market for me are only going

:41:06.:41:09.

to get, you know, less, so it's such an exciting time

:41:10.:41:11.

for a tech start-up like Vibe Tickets to be going

:41:12.:41:14.

out there and seeing what the rest of the world is doing.

:41:15.:41:17.

Manchester-based data handling firm AMS

:41:18.:41:19.

are very comfortable with a post-Brexit landscape.

:41:20.:41:23.

It's interesting, isn't it, that we got ministers

:41:24.:41:25.

in the region talking about international trade,

:41:26.:41:27.

It's all about connectivity and, great, we want to trade

:41:28.:41:31.

we always have wanted to trade with the EU.

:41:32.:41:35.

We want to trade with the rest of the world as well.

:41:36.:41:38.

At Garston Dock in Liverpool, there's something in the air.

:41:39.:41:41.

A brand-new crane, part of an ?8 million investment.

:41:42.:41:46.

But Merseyside's only Lib Dem MP says the future of places like this

:41:47.:41:50.

An awful lot of our supplies to our businesses come in

:41:51.:41:54.

If there are tariffs there, if there's going to be restrictions

:41:55.:41:59.

on customs and that kind of thing, then life is going to become more

:42:00.:42:02.

difficult for them and it's going to get more expensive

:42:03.:42:04.

To give you an idea of the largely European nature of business

:42:05.:42:08.

here at Garston Dock in Liverpool, the new crane was built in Finland,

:42:09.:42:14.

the aggregate that it's dumping into those lorries

:42:15.:42:16.

from the ship probably came from Spain or Portugal.

:42:17.:42:20.

Yes, the trading patterns may be different and

:42:21.:42:23.

All businesses you hear talk about not liking uncertainty

:42:24.:42:27.

but you can either sit back and do nothing or you can do something

:42:28.:42:31.

about it so we as a business are investing

:42:32.:42:33.

nationally and we will continue to do so.

:42:34.:42:37.

Associated British Ports, but also Peel down in the

:42:38.:42:40.

They're making those investments in the new cranes

:42:41.:42:46.

so that we're prepared and ready whatever the eventuality is.

:42:47.:42:50.

It seems a post-Article 50 peace and love pragmatism has settled and

:42:51.:42:54.

Thankfully spared the sight of Mark Edwardson

:42:55.:43:04.

in a festival poncho there but, Lisa, we see

:43:05.:43:06.

the green shoots in the economy,

:43:07.:43:08.

in commerce, is it time to accept that 64%

:43:09.:43:10.

Actually, Brexit is a good thing for our region?

:43:11.:43:13.

I think it's absolutely time to accept that

:43:14.:43:15.

the referendum is over and that a majority voted to leave

:43:16.:43:18.

and Britain is now leaving the EU and unless we accept that,

:43:19.:43:23.

And what comes next is really important because I agree

:43:24.:43:27.

that we are a strong country, we're a country

:43:28.:43:30.

with a lot to offer and we need to

:43:31.:43:31.

go into the future with a sense of optimism...

:43:32.:43:34.

..that the business is there portrayed, but that doesn't

:43:35.:43:37.

mean that we shouldn't realise that a lot rests on the outcome of these

:43:38.:43:40.

negotiations and we shouldn't take them very seriously.

:43:41.:43:43.

But do you concede that the economy has proved buoyant

:43:44.:43:45.

and it hasn't been as disastrous as you might have feared?

:43:46.:43:48.

So, I think there are real complications with what happens

:43:49.:43:51.

And I was never one of the people who subscribe to the idea

:43:52.:43:57.

that the day that Britain voted to leave the EU,

:43:58.:43:59.

suddenly the economy would fall off a cliff, but I do think

:44:00.:44:02.

there are reasons to believe that there would be serious problems

:44:03.:44:06.

for the North West's economy if we were to crash

:44:07.:44:09.

out of the EU in two year's time with no deal.

:44:10.:44:12.

And that's not just my view, that is the view of one

:44:13.:44:15.

of the strongest pro-leave campaigners

:44:16.:44:18.

John Bickley, we are facing a situation now where we are

:44:19.:44:22.

not going to be able to strike a trade deal until we've

:44:23.:44:25.

That is the rule stipulated by Donald Tusk.

:44:26.:44:28.

And that's going to create a mess financially, is it not?

:44:29.:44:31.

I mean, I noted there that Lisa had to use the word crash.

:44:32.:44:36.

You hear people on the remains side who

:44:37.:44:38.

just can't accept that they lost the referendum use the word hard

:44:39.:44:41.

Are you not concerned that we can't reach a trade deal until...?

:44:42.:44:46.

Because only 12% of this country's turnover goes

:44:47.:44:50.

The majority of the wealth in this country and annual GDP

:44:51.:44:56.

The rest of the world is growing faster than the EU.

:44:57.:45:02.

Every country in the world outside of the EU, guess what?

:45:03.:45:06.

Trades with the EU, has access to the single market.

:45:07.:45:13.

You don't need to be a member of the single market

:45:14.:45:16.

We don't know what it will be for two years.

:45:17.:45:22.

We'll have to negotiate everything else before we find out what our

:45:23.:45:26.

Some people want to give this impression it's complicated.

:45:27.:45:29.

We could just revert to WTO rules, which most of the world

:45:30.:45:31.

uses those rules to trade with the EU.

:45:32.:45:33.

But the implication of that, John, would be that we weren't part

:45:34.:45:36.

of the open skies agreement, so the planes that you just saw

:45:37.:45:39.

that there wouldn't have permission to fly...

:45:40.:45:41.

This is the view of the Brexit secretary.

:45:42.:45:44.

Are you truly saying our planes will be able

:45:45.:45:46.

If we don't sign up to a new open skies agreement,

:45:47.:45:50.

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, appeared before the select committee

:45:51.:45:54.

last week and confirmed that if we went into

:45:55.:45:57.

the WTO system that you described without a deal,

:45:58.:45:59.

Well, I don't believe that's the case.

:46:00.:46:02.

And what I'm saying to you is the worst-case scenario...

:46:03.:46:04.

It's in the EU's interest to sign a free trade deal with this country.

:46:05.:46:09.

They sell considerably more to this country than vice versa.

:46:10.:46:11.

If they truly care about their citizens,

:46:12.:46:13.

German citizens who work for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen,

:46:14.:46:16.

we're their biggest market in Europe.

:46:17.:46:20.

I agree that it's in both of our interest to collaborate,

:46:21.:46:23.

Surely you accept that if we did leave under WTO rules as you're

:46:24.:46:29.

describing, there would be 40% tariffs on agriculture.

:46:30.:46:31.

The Brexit secretary confirmed it last week.

:46:32.:46:33.

We would not be part of the open skies agreement

:46:34.:46:36.

and our planes wouldn't be able to...

:46:37.:46:37.

Let's bring Graham in, let's bring Graham in.

:46:38.:46:40.

I think it's a real opportunity, fantastic opportunity

:46:41.:46:46.

for the businesses in the North West as your excellent piece.

:46:47.:46:48.

I thought it was an excellent piece, of going to America.

:46:49.:46:51.

The other growth countries in the world, India, China

:46:52.:46:53.

We are still a manufacturing region so we have

:46:54.:46:56.

But half of our trade, half of our export in the

:46:57.:47:01.

North West goes to the EU and it's a slap

:47:02.:47:04.

in the face this week for the

:47:05.:47:06.

Prime Minister that Donald Tusk has said we're going to have to wait

:47:07.:47:09.

But things are quite fluid, what people

:47:10.:47:12.

But it's what we actually come up with at the end of

:47:13.:47:16.

the negotiations and if we have access to the single market...

:47:17.:47:19.

But would it feel that way if you run a factory?

:47:20.:47:21.

No, we're still be able to export to the European Union.

:47:22.:47:24.

We will still have access to that single market

:47:25.:47:26.

but it doesn't stop us in the meantime forging those links

:47:27.:47:29.

and those trade routes with other countries around the world.

:47:30.:47:31.

A big concern at the moment, while the

:47:32.:47:33.

Prime Minister is talking to Nicola Sturgeon,

:47:34.:47:35.

negotiating with Scotland, our economy in the North West

:47:36.:47:37.

is bigger than Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales combined

:47:38.:47:39.

We do have her ear and as I say, this is a real opportunity.

:47:40.:47:45.

The economy in the north-west of England

:47:46.:47:47.

is growing faster than at stages in the South West,

:47:48.:47:50.

We are a vibrant manufacturing economy.

:47:51.:47:55.

We've got so many opportunities, as you saw in your film.

:47:56.:47:57.

So I don't go along with what Lisa's saying.

:47:58.:48:00.

Should have been a plan, if you win the referendum to

:48:01.:48:04.

leave the European Union, should have been something in place?

:48:05.:48:06.

The establishment, the Labour Party, the Tory party,

:48:07.:48:15.

the Liberal party, all assumed that we

:48:16.:48:17.

So they just were arrogant in assuming...

:48:18.:48:19.

But did you not have a responsibility to communicate

:48:20.:48:21.

to the public that there could be a bill as high as ?50 billion

:48:22.:48:25.

Well, sorry, this is the EU trying to...

:48:26.:48:28.

But did you not have a responsibility to warn the public

:48:29.:48:33.

The bill that we will have to pay, we will have to pay.

:48:34.:48:38.

Donald Tusk has said we will have to settle that.

:48:39.:48:46.

Just because Donald Tusk says that this box is pink, not blue,

:48:47.:48:50.

So we leave without any deal whatsoever?

:48:51.:48:53.

Ultimately, if the EU is intransigent and ignores putting

:48:54.:48:55.

together what we call a free-trade deal which is in their consumers'

:48:56.:48:58.

interest as as ours, there are big companies

:48:59.:49:00.

want to continue to trade with this country...

:49:01.:49:02.

And, look, I do agree with you, Graham, that there

:49:03.:49:07.

are lots of reasons to be optimistic about what the UK has to offer and

:49:08.:49:10.

the fact is that we've had very strong partnerships with other EU

:49:11.:49:13.

But the problem comes if you do what John is

:49:14.:49:21.

suggesting and you crash out of the EU...

:49:22.:49:23.

Under WTO rules, because what that means

:49:24.:49:27.

instantly, there will be tariffs on our imports and exports,

:49:28.:49:30.

there will be a hard border in Northern Ireland

:49:31.:49:32.

threatening the peace agreement, there are real problems.

:49:33.:49:34.

Donald Tusk has said he's going to look at the

:49:35.:49:36.

border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

:49:37.:49:38.

No, I'm sorry, it is completely irresponsible!

:49:39.:49:41.

I believe in this country, John, but I don't

:49:42.:49:45.

believe in politicians like you who are telling the public lies.

:49:46.:49:47.

Donald Tusk has said is one of the first

:49:48.:49:50.

Let's hear from Graham, let's hear from Graham.

:49:51.:49:56.

The border between Northern Ireland and the

:49:57.:49:58.

Republic of Ireland, Donald Tusk has said that's one

:49:59.:50:00.

of the first things they're going to sort out.

:50:01.:50:02.

And will you make sure the Prime Minister

:50:03.:50:04.

says the first thing she'll do is come up here and talk

:50:05.:50:07.

Because she's been invited to and she's declined the invite.

:50:08.:50:11.

Well, to be fair to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet...

:50:12.:50:13.

Gordon Brown has said this week that we're

:50:14.:50:15.

In the early part of the year, she launched

:50:16.:50:18.

the industrial strategy in my constituency and came up with the

:50:19.:50:21.

Cabinet, so she has a very good record.

:50:22.:50:23.

She came up, but she want to meet with council leaders and talk

:50:24.:50:26.

about the implications of Brexit for the North.

:50:27.:50:28.

David Davis is going to do that and I'll speak to

:50:29.:50:31.

I'm sure she'd love to come up to the north-west of

:50:32.:50:35.

We're going to have to move on, sorry, John.

:50:36.:50:42.

George Osborne called him a star of local Government

:50:43.:50:44.

and Andy Burnham called him one of the most incredible

:50:45.:50:46.

In 46 years at Manchester City Council, 19 as chief executive,

:50:47.:50:51.

Sir Howard Bernstein has rebuilt the city

:50:52.:50:52.

after the IRA bombing and injected the ambition

:50:53.:50:54.

and vision to turn it into an economic

:50:55.:50:56.

I went to meeting this week at his office.

:50:57.:50:59.

It was 1971 when a young Howard Bernstein from Cheetham Hill

:51:00.:51:02.

entered Manchester town Hall to do the washing up.

:51:03.:51:04.

He describes Manchester then as a city with soul

:51:05.:51:07.

And just felt my role was able to shape Manchester in the future.

:51:08.:51:18.

Yes. Yes.

:51:19.:51:22.

Opportunities are sometimes disguised in grotesque form

:51:23.:51:25.

and Howards's came on the 15th of June 1996.

:51:26.:51:31.

Some people say it's the best thing that ever happened to Manchester

:51:32.:51:34.

and it did not feel like that at the time, did it?

:51:35.:51:37.

It was an appalling period, certainly in my life.

:51:38.:51:42.

And I think most Mancunian's lives as well

:51:43.:51:43.

# You've got to roll with it You've got to take your time #.

:51:44.:51:51.

But Manchester sprang out of the rubble,

:51:52.:51:54.

defiantly transformed and guided by Sir Howard's vision.

:51:55.:51:57.

National architecture awards followed and Howard from

:51:58.:52:01.

How does it make you feel to think,

:52:02.:52:05.

You know, when you look at the challenges we've had over the last

:52:06.:52:14.

20 years and we see how the city has changed, of course, I feel

:52:15.:52:18.

privileged to have been able to play a part in that.

:52:19.:52:22.

How did it feel when you sat and watched the opening ceremony

:52:23.:52:25.

The whole period leading up to the Commonwealth Games

:52:26.:52:39.

One good thing that came out of them - his beloved Manchester City

:52:40.:52:47.

You oversaw the city of Manchester Stadium becoming

:52:48.:52:51.

Did you declare personal interest at that point?

:52:52.:52:54.

It was written on my wrist everywhere.

:52:55.:52:59.

But at the end of the day, Man City was the

:53:00.:53:03.

only show in town if we were going to build a permanent stadium.

:53:04.:53:07.

And it's just great that that stadium

:53:08.:53:09.

has coincided with an upsurge in the club's fortunes.

:53:10.:53:12.

Sir Howard says he leaves the city still on the up,

:53:13.:53:15.

rising global investments, the fastest growing

:53:16.:53:17.

He does regret Brexit but also feels the EU has become too political.

:53:18.:53:24.

Do you feel as a political institution, its days are numbered?

:53:25.:53:28.

I think there's going to have to be reform of the EU

:53:29.:53:31.

Whether or not it will be on the back of Brexit,

:53:32.:53:37.

I'm absolutely certain reform of one form or another

:53:38.:53:39.

After 46 years of walking through these doors,

:53:40.:53:45.

Manchester isn't just about the people in here, is it?

:53:46.:53:50.

And want to do the best for themselves and for the city

:53:51.:54:02.

and in my own way, I'm going to continue

:54:03.:54:11.

to work for Manchester and play my full part

:54:12.:54:14.

in this city's future success.

:54:15.:54:15.

You certainly haven't seen the last of me.

:54:16.:54:19.

Thank you very much, that was lovely.

:54:20.:54:20.

Lisa, you grew up in Manchester in the 80s, as

:54:21.:54:23.

We have got a lot to be grateful for.

:54:24.:54:26.

It's unrecognisable to what it was back then, isn't it?

:54:27.:54:28.

Yes, it's transformed incredibly over that time

:54:29.:54:30.

and I think one of the things

:54:31.:54:32.

that I didn't know as a child but that you do become

:54:33.:54:34.

much more aware of is that in the background has been a team

:54:35.:54:38.

overseen by Howard who has never pushed

:54:39.:54:42.

to protect Manchester from some of the buffeting that

:54:43.:54:46.

other areas of the country have got and I think we have a lot to be

:54:47.:54:49.

And actually, he did say part of it was working with the

:54:50.:54:53.

Conservative Government through the 80s and 90s,

:54:54.:54:55.

And in the end, although you see us all having a big knock-about

:54:56.:55:00.

and we do have very fundamentally serious disagreements

:55:01.:55:02.

about things, in the end, if you want to make

:55:03.:55:04.

change for people, you work together.

:55:05.:55:05.

There are a lot of statues in Manchester.

:55:06.:55:07.

Perhaps there could be another one for Sir Howard.

:55:08.:55:10.

So Howard has been a driving force in the city

:55:11.:55:14.

for a generation but a key player soon will be the metro mayor

:55:15.:55:17.

and that's because greater Manchester and Liverpool city

:55:18.:55:19.

region, which is Merseyside plus Holton, will elect regional mayors

:55:20.:55:21.

In Merseyside, the mayor and combined

:55:22.:55:25.

authority - that is the six councils working together - will get

:55:26.:55:27.

?900 million over 30 years and powers over apprenticeships

:55:28.:55:29.

and skills, Housing and planning, transport and integration of health

:55:30.:55:32.

Greater Manchester's mayor and combined authority

:55:33.:55:35.

will get the same and more.

:55:36.:55:38.

?300 million to invest in housing, influence over the devolved

:55:39.:55:41.

?6 billion health budget, control of

:55:42.:55:42.

policing as well as powers over the justice system.

:55:43.:55:46.

Graham, this is significant, isn't it?

:55:47.:55:48.

But again, it's not something we've heard the

:55:49.:55:50.

Government post-Osborne talk a lot about.

:55:51.:55:51.

Is there a feel that they're interested that this

:55:52.:55:54.

devolution is happening in the north-west?

:55:55.:55:55.

It's a very good thing for Manchester and also for Liverpool.

:55:56.:55:59.

What's good enough for London has got to be

:56:00.:56:02.

good for cities such as Manchester and Liverpool

:56:03.:56:06.

I said this to Steve, you have to go out into the world and sell

:56:07.:56:17.

Liverpool and Merseyside and the same goes with Manchester was

:56:18.:56:20.

following on from Sir Howard, it is a global

:56:21.:56:22.

way to sell Manchester and therefore the region.

:56:23.:56:24.

It's good for the region, not just for the cities.

:56:25.:56:26.

John, people will say Ukip and have a role in this.

:56:27.:56:29.

I guess, to be honest with you, one of the things

:56:30.:56:37.

that concerns me about mayoral elections, the same for the police

:56:38.:56:42.

and crime commissioner, they become politicised.

:56:43.:56:44.

The main parties effectively fight amongst themselves

:56:45.:56:46.

I would rather see mayors and police and crime commissioners

:56:47.:56:53.

elected without any involvement

:56:54.:56:55.

Unfortunately, all were getting now is just a reflection

:56:56.:57:02.

of the local politics where the person who stands for

:57:03.:57:06.

either Police and Crime Commissioner or the Mayor is just a party...

:57:07.:57:11.

That that person goes beyond becoming a figurehead

:57:12.:57:15.

and actually has too much control?

:57:16.:57:17.

I think the key is that you have to have somebody in that role

:57:18.:57:20.

who is prepared to work across party.

:57:21.:57:22.

So in the way that the greater Manchester local authorities

:57:23.:57:26.

have done, even though they've got mixed

:57:27.:57:28.

political leadership over the years

:57:29.:57:35.

which has led to this deal being achieved,

:57:36.:57:37.

I also think that we need much stronger scrutiny

:57:38.:57:39.

arrangements in greater Manchester because the mayor at the moment is

:57:40.:57:42.

only accountable through an election every few years.

:57:43.:57:44.

But I also think there's a real risk here which is

:57:45.:57:46.

that it's a fantastic thing that more power is coming to our region

:57:47.:57:50.

and we should all welcome it but Graham lapsed into,

:57:51.:57:52.

and I know it was just a shorthand about talking

:57:53.:57:54.

about Manchester and Liverpool and the cities.

:57:55.:57:57.

Actually, there is a problem here because behind Osborne's agenda

:57:58.:57:59.

was an idea that cities are engines of growth in this

:58:00.:58:02.

country and towns can form part of that region

:58:03.:58:06.

and be pulled along in their wake.

:58:07.:58:09.

Now, that can't be the sum total of our vision for places

:58:10.:58:15.

I want one for Cheshire, I want the same for Cheshire.

:58:16.:58:20.

But what I'm saying is we need to make sure that this

:58:21.:58:25.

model invests in all parts of our region

:58:26.:58:27.

Well, they may be redundant, you know, once we leave the EU.

:58:28.:58:32.

Because once we leave the EU and Parliament

:58:33.:58:34.

becomes sovereign again, so that you guys to go down there

:58:35.:58:36.

actually do make our laws rather than just being aggregating...

:58:37.:58:39.

Well, no, the whole point of having these

:58:40.:58:40.

devolved authorities and having a directly elected mayor is that

:58:41.:58:43.

After Brexit, you may find a different model at work.

:58:44.:58:46.

John, the one thing we've not mentioned is the

:58:47.:58:49.

The whole point of these is to get the north working

:58:50.:58:52.

together to rebalance the economy between the North and the South.

:58:53.:58:55.

If you have strong regional mayors,

:58:56.:58:58.

that will bring the whole of the North together,

:58:59.:59:02.

the infrastructure, the inward investment

:59:03.:59:04.

the global infrastructure of putting the North

:59:05.:59:05.

on the map so that the world will think about investing in the north

:59:06.:59:09.

rather than just in London and the south-east.

:59:10.:59:10.

London and the south-east is so, so powerful.

:59:11.:59:12.

And Lisa's right, we as politicians have

:59:13.:59:14.

This is why it's so important those mayors do

:59:15.:59:18.

do that to promote the North

:59:19.:59:19.

They shouldn't be members and connected to...

:59:20.:59:23.

We find out who they are on the 5th of May.

:59:24.:59:26.

Carol has got a look at the rest of this week's news now.

:59:27.:59:29.

The Justice Secretary was asked to review the

:59:30.:59:36.

suspended sentence handed to a man who beat his wife and

:59:37.:59:39.

A crime has been committed and it must be seen to be

:59:40.:59:45.

a crime that is abghorent to society and that

:59:46.:59:47.

must be reflected in the sentencing.

:59:48.:59:49.

A so-called Hillsborough law compelling public officials to

:59:50.:59:52.

be truthful at enquiries and ensuring legal aid for bereaved

:59:53.:59:56.

Could high-speed rail hit the buffers?

:59:57.:00:02.

The main contractor for the section of HS2 between Crewe and

:00:03.:00:04.

Manchester pulled out over a conflict-of-interest.

:00:05.:00:08.

They are designing, they are getting on with it.

:00:09.:00:14.

It's a large project and it will now be delayed.

:00:15.:00:17.

Also in a slot of bother, is the company due to

:00:18.:00:22.

build a new nuclear power station next to Sellafield.

:00:23.:00:24.

But Westinghouse said filing for bankruptcy protection

:00:25.:00:26.

would only affect projects in America.

:00:27.:00:27.

And a minute's silence was held in Salford to remember

:00:28.:00:30.

those who lost their lives in the terror attack in Westminster.

:00:31.:00:39.

Graham wants you to know he'll be running his sixth marathon

:00:40.:00:47.

on the 23rd, because he's modest like that(!)

:00:48.:00:49.

I'll hand you back to Andrew in London.

:00:50.:00:53.

So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes

:00:54.:01:06.

Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?

:01:07.:01:10.

And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,

:01:11.:01:12.

To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford

:01:13.:01:25.

by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.

:01:26.:01:29.

Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will

:01:30.:01:39.

it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can

:01:40.:01:44.

predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning

:01:45.:01:50.

with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not

:01:51.:01:54.

mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.

:01:55.:02:02.

Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in

:02:03.:02:11.

business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why

:02:12.:02:15.

we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under

:02:16.:02:21.

Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you

:02:22.:02:26.

do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up

:02:27.:02:29.

lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you

:02:30.:02:36.

used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get

:02:37.:02:41.

back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a

:02:42.:02:44.

mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in

:02:45.:02:49.

this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places

:02:50.:02:55.

like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the

:02:56.:03:00.

country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the

:03:01.:03:03.

Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic

:03:04.:03:11.

areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well

:03:12.:03:15.

which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part

:03:16.:03:21.

as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has

:03:22.:03:25.

taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is

:03:26.:03:31.

fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are

:03:32.:03:37.

discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if

:03:38.:03:41.

they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.

:03:42.:03:49.

If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your

:03:50.:03:53.

vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of

:03:54.:03:57.

representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we

:03:58.:04:01.

have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124

:04:02.:04:10.

seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality

:04:11.:04:14.

of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very

:04:15.:04:17.

effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is

:04:18.:04:23.

not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,

:04:24.:04:28.

that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it

:04:29.:04:34.

not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the

:04:35.:04:38.

debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is

:04:39.:04:43.

something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people

:04:44.:04:47.

the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually

:04:48.:04:51.

produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the

:04:52.:04:56.

foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the

:04:57.:05:01.

Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social

:05:02.:05:07.

democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I

:05:08.:05:12.

do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party

:05:13.:05:15.

together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own

:05:16.:05:20.

decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you

:05:21.:05:28.

saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a

:05:29.:05:32.

consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing

:05:33.:05:36.

could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is

:05:37.:05:42.

moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in

:05:43.:05:49.

2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look

:05:50.:05:54.

at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax

:05:55.:06:00.

changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to

:06:01.:06:04.

?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate

:06:05.:06:10.

threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from

:06:11.:06:16.

currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,

:06:17.:06:24.

freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax

:06:25.:06:31.

credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an

:06:32.:06:36.

impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two

:06:37.:06:42.

children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched

:06:43.:06:49.

the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit

:06:50.:06:55.

changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third

:06:56.:07:03.

or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The

:07:04.:07:08.

Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It

:07:09.:07:13.

is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I

:07:14.:07:19.

have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith

:07:20.:07:23.

Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody

:07:24.:07:27.

should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the

:07:28.:07:30.

state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by

:07:31.:07:37.

better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly

:07:38.:07:40.

less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have

:07:41.:07:48.

to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her

:07:49.:07:53.

other language and the role of the government and the state when she

:07:54.:07:57.

sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government

:07:58.:08:01.

conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she

:08:02.:08:06.

says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not

:08:07.:08:14.

what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would

:08:15.:08:18.

not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a

:08:19.:08:23.

much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of

:08:24.:08:29.

progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when

:08:30.:08:34.

George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they

:08:35.:08:36.

were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this

:08:37.:08:41.

government was going to meet the demand for public services when it

:08:42.:08:45.

has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do

:08:46.:08:50.

now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare

:08:51.:08:56.

issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution

:08:57.:08:59.

Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which

:09:00.:09:05.

has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from

:09:06.:09:08.

the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.

:09:09.:09:14.

Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the

:09:15.:09:17.

losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem

:09:18.:09:23.

for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her

:09:24.:09:26.

narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about

:09:27.:09:31.

managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have

:09:32.:09:37.

at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still

:09:38.:09:39.

saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and

:09:40.:09:46.

spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle

:09:47.:09:50.

classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely

:09:51.:09:53.

going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to

:09:54.:09:57.

mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was

:09:58.:10:00.

told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came

:10:01.:10:06.

up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions

:10:07.:10:11.

involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and

:10:12.:10:15.

benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to

:10:16.:10:19.

fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you

:10:20.:10:24.

find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance

:10:25.:10:28.

rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of

:10:29.:10:33.

the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an

:10:34.:10:38.

early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an

:10:39.:10:44.

albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in

:10:45.:10:48.

income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel

:10:49.:10:54.

duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going

:10:55.:10:57.

to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they

:10:58.:11:03.

end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call

:11:04.:11:07.

stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up

:11:08.:11:12.

in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of

:11:13.:11:17.

the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to

:11:18.:11:23.

have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would

:11:24.:11:27.

like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best

:11:28.:11:31.

argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at

:11:32.:11:35.

the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives

:11:36.:11:40.

feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the

:11:41.:11:45.

need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very

:11:46.:11:51.

interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is

:11:52.:11:55.

trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and

:11:56.:12:02.

spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.

:12:03.:12:08.

Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that

:12:09.:12:13.

demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The

:12:14.:12:17.

Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to

:12:18.:12:25.

India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not

:12:26.:12:31.

know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The

:12:32.:12:36.

prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest

:12:37.:12:42.

answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one

:12:43.:12:46.

because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms

:12:47.:12:49.

will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to

:12:50.:12:53.

trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always

:12:54.:12:58.

go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in

:12:59.:13:02.

a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.

:13:03.:13:08.

Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get

:13:09.:13:13.

out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day

:13:14.:13:17.

after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and

:13:18.:13:21.

they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal

:13:22.:13:27.

talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a

:13:28.:13:31.

symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.

:13:32.:13:36.

Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have

:13:37.:13:43.

run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the

:13:44.:13:47.

Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the

:13:48.:13:51.

Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.

:13:52.:14:20.

Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.

:14:21.:14:23.

As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,

:14:24.:14:27.

we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"

:14:28.:14:51.

I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin.

:14:52.:15:00.

So, can anybody speak Italian? No. Non parlo italiano.

:15:01.:15:05.

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