Browse content similar to 02/04/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:36. | :00:39. | |
The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained | :00:40. | :00:42. | |
But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
After a momentous week, Britain's journey out | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home | :00:53. | :00:56. | |
We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard. | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections - | :01:02. | :01:04. | |
what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down? | :01:05. | :01:07. | |
And in the north-west, our first flight to the home of flower power. | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
bring some post-Brexit peace and love? | :01:11. | :01:18. | |
changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
there constituencies. And with me, as always, | :01:21. | :01:28. | |
the best and the brightest political panel in the business - | :01:29. | :01:30. | |
Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
of a shock. The guidelines propose | :01:42. | :01:43. | |
that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade | :01:44. | :01:48. | |
deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted | :01:49. | :01:51. | |
strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away | :01:52. | :01:57. | |
in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary, | :01:58. | :01:59. | |
Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look | :02:00. | :02:05. | |
after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected | :02:06. | :02:11. | |
all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar | :02:12. | :02:16. | |
cannot be changed without the agreement of the people | :02:17. | :02:18. | |
of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think, | :02:22. | :02:23. | |
in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying | :02:24. | :02:26. | |
that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is | :02:27. | :02:38. | |
this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both. | :02:39. | :02:43. | |
Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
and again is that at different points individual countries can | :02:48. | :02:52. | |
start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you | :02:53. | :02:59. | |
have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to | :03:00. | :03:03. | |
be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit | :03:04. | :03:10. | |
after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is | :03:11. | :03:18. | |
triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto | :03:19. | :03:22. | |
it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to | :03:28. | :03:33. | |
say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual | :03:34. | :03:36. | |
countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I | :03:43. | :03:50. | |
think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number | :03:51. | :03:57. | |
10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter | :03:58. | :04:00. | |
of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal | :04:01. | :04:05. | |
the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed | :04:11. | :04:16. | |
over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this | :04:17. | :04:19. | |
incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there | :04:20. | :04:25. | |
could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar, | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar | :04:35. | :04:39. | |
got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on. | :04:58. | :05:03. | |
For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are | :05:09. | :05:13. | |
not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it | :05:18. | :05:24. | |
is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very | :05:25. | :05:31. | |
much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is | :05:32. | :05:34. | |
still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly | :05:40. | :05:45. | |
empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has | :05:46. | :05:52. | |
got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They | :05:53. | :05:55. | |
will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so | :06:01. | :06:05. | |
much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not! | :06:10. | :06:20. | |
Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now | :06:21. | :06:25. | |
changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking | :06:30. | :06:35. | |
up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week, | :06:36. | :06:43. | |
the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth | :06:44. | :06:46. | |
journey to the exit door? Or can we expect | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back | :06:51. | :06:51. | |
control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting | :06:55. | :06:56. | |
in a car. It is only a few hundred metres | :06:57. | :06:58. | |
from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start | :06:59. | :07:01. | |
of a much longer one and we do not know exactly | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
where we will all end up. This is a historic moment | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John, | :07:10. | :07:11. | |
sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's | :07:12. | :07:20. | |
ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
to have been jilted. Back in Westminster, | :07:24. | :07:26. | |
hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it | :07:27. | :07:31. | |
all meant for the So, here it is, a copy | :07:32. | :07:34. | |
of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's | :07:35. | :07:41. | |
proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal | :07:42. | :07:47. | |
at the same time. It also mentioned the word | :07:48. | :07:50. | |
"security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement | :07:51. | :07:52. | |
would mean cooperation in the fight against crime | :07:53. | :07:55. | |
and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European | :08:00. | :08:02. | |
policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access | :08:03. | :08:08. | |
information in the same way as we would as a member, | :08:09. | :08:12. | |
so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate | :08:13. | :08:15. | |
a continuing relationship that enables us to work together | :08:16. | :08:17. | |
in the way that we have. That night, the | :08:18. | :08:20. | |
Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad | :08:21. | :08:22. | |
Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers, | :08:23. | :08:28. | |
having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers | :08:32. | :08:40. | |
suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool | :08:41. | :08:55. | |
and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area | :08:56. | :08:55. | |
if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it, | :08:56. | :08:56. | |
as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we | :08:57. | :08:56. | |
will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement | :08:57. | :08:59. | |
of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other | :09:00. | :09:02. | |
business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill, | :09:03. | :09:05. | |
outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British | :09:06. | :09:08. | |
law to change later, It is not without its critics | :09:09. | :09:10. | |
but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits, | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek | :09:16. | :09:17. | |
a new deep and special partnership with the European Union, | :09:18. | :09:24. | |
we are doing so from a position where we have the same | :09:25. | :09:26. | |
standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver | :09:27. | :09:28. | |
on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law | :09:29. | :09:34. | |
in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small | :09:35. | :09:37. | |
issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle | :09:38. | :09:44. | |
with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said | :09:45. | :09:47. | |
they were not allowed Great(!) | :09:48. | :09:49. | |
so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been | :09:50. | :09:57. | |
a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another, | :09:58. | :10:00. | |
Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting | :10:01. | :10:03. | |
and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines | :10:04. | :10:06. | |
for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once, | :10:07. | :10:12. | |
we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss | :10:13. | :10:15. | |
the framework for our Starting parallel talks | :10:16. | :10:18. | |
on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK, | :10:19. | :10:21. | |
will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not | :10:22. | :10:30. | |
pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is | :10:31. | :10:34. | |
already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get | :10:35. | :10:41. | |
the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set | :10:42. | :10:44. | |
elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions | :10:45. | :10:47. | |
are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is | :10:48. | :10:57. | |
celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent | :10:58. | :11:03. | |
by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a | :11:04. | :11:11. | |
future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient | :11:12. | :11:15. | |
progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this | :11:16. | :11:22. | |
phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence | :11:23. | :11:28. | |
and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
might be reached on things talked about early on will be very | :11:38. | :11:43. | |
provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the | :11:44. | :11:47. | |
sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that. | :11:48. | :11:51. | |
Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk | :11:52. | :11:56. | |
of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not | :11:57. | :11:59. | |
remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No. | :12:00. | :12:07. | |
A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said | :12:08. | :12:11. | |
that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see | :12:12. | :12:17. | |
how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see | :12:24. | :12:29. | |
what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier, | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept | :12:38. | :12:43. | |
that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to | :12:49. | :12:56. | |
make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a | :12:57. | :13:01. | |
really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on, | :13:02. | :13:07. | |
speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment. | :13:08. | :13:10. | |
But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I | :13:11. | :13:20. | |
cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the | :13:21. | :13:24. | |
negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end. | :13:25. | :13:30. | |
The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years | :13:31. | :13:33. | |
after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must | :13:34. | :13:38. | |
remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of | :13:39. | :13:42. | |
the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any | :13:51. | :13:58. | |
judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you | :13:59. | :14:01. | |
know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is | :14:07. | :14:13. | |
something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this | :14:14. | :14:17. | |
stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal, | :14:18. | :14:22. | |
and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer | :14:23. | :14:26. | |
to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in | :14:27. | :14:31. | |
its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like | :14:32. | :14:37. | |
yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they | :14:38. | :14:42. | |
will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do | :14:43. | :14:45. | |
not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try | :14:46. | :14:49. | |
another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a | :14:50. | :14:52. | |
comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints | :14:53. | :14:58. | |
on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept | :14:59. | :15:06. | |
that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We | :15:07. | :15:10. | |
will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own | :15:11. | :15:15. | |
decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the | :15:16. | :15:22. | |
negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in | :15:23. | :15:27. | |
the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them. | :15:28. | :15:31. | |
No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free | :15:32. | :15:37. | |
trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very | :15:38. | :15:41. | |
important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of | :15:42. | :15:42. | |
the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without | :15:43. | :15:55. | |
having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I | :15:56. | :16:00. | |
think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of | :16:01. | :16:07. | |
the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no | :16:08. | :16:11. | |
deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will | :16:12. | :16:17. | |
get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal, | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But | :16:22. | :16:29. | |
it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the | :16:30. | :16:33. | |
world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would | :16:34. | :16:38. | |
be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with | :16:39. | :16:42. | |
everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to | :16:43. | :16:46. | |
get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the | :16:47. | :16:51. | |
interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned | :16:52. | :16:55. | |
in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any | :17:00. | :17:05. | |
free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British | :17:06. | :17:11. | |
government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it | :17:12. | :17:16. | |
absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this | :17:17. | :17:22. | |
week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is | :17:23. | :17:25. | |
halfway across the world to protect another small group of British | :17:26. | :17:28. | |
people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am | :17:29. | :17:34. | |
absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the | :17:35. | :17:38. | |
same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did. | :17:39. | :17:49. | |
This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about | :17:50. | :17:51. | |
sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any | :17:52. | :17:54. | |
free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to | :17:55. | :17:57. | |
Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The | :17:58. | :18:03. | |
British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests | :18:04. | :18:09. | |
of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 | :18:10. | :18:13. | |
people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important | :18:14. | :18:17. | |
Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will | :18:18. | :18:23. | |
be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including | :18:24. | :18:27. | |
free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this | :18:28. | :18:28. | |
morning. Although sometimes it seems | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening | :18:33. | :18:33. | |
other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time, | :18:34. | :18:35. | |
there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot | :18:36. | :18:38. | |
up for grabs. Local elections take place | :18:39. | :18:41. | |
on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections | :18:42. | :18:44. | |
in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils, | :18:45. | :18:49. | |
usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually | :18:50. | :18:56. | |
fares better are not Six regions of England will also | :18:57. | :19:02. | |
hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors, | :19:03. | :19:06. | |
and there will be contests for directly elected mayors, | :19:07. | :19:09. | |
with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands | :19:10. | :19:16. | |
among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32 | :19:17. | :19:18. | |
councils are being contested, many of them affected | :19:19. | :19:21. | |
by boundary changes. Since these seats were last | :19:22. | :19:23. | |
contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each | :19:24. | :19:26. | |
of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected | :19:27. | :19:31. | |
in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour, | :19:32. | :19:38. | |
though independent candidates currently hold | :19:39. | :19:39. | |
a quarter of council seats. According to the latest | :19:40. | :19:42. | |
calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre, | :19:43. | :19:44. | |
the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats, | :19:45. | :19:49. | |
despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England | :19:50. | :19:52. | |
looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning | :19:53. | :19:59. | |
100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall, | :20:00. | :20:01. | |
predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system | :20:02. | :20:06. | |
usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland, | :20:07. | :20:08. | |
the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats | :20:09. | :20:11. | |
they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high | :20:12. | :20:14. | |
water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections | :20:15. | :20:22. | |
suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest | :20:23. | :20:25. | |
gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's | :20:26. | :20:27. | |
very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice | :20:28. | :20:30. | |
of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start | :20:31. | :20:37. | |
with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour? | :20:38. | :20:42. | |
Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part | :20:43. | :20:46. | |
rural England. The only control three of the council they are | :20:47. | :20:51. | |
defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly | :20:52. | :20:56. | |
a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion | :20:57. | :20:59. | |
polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the | :21:00. | :21:03. | |
position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring | :21:04. | :21:15. | |
of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking | :21:16. | :21:17. | |
about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50 | :21:18. | :21:20. | |
losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council | :21:21. | :21:23. | |
areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, | :21:24. | :21:27. | |
could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council | :21:28. | :21:31. | |
control is concerned in these elections in England. In England, | :21:32. | :21:35. | |
what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the | :21:36. | :21:39. | |
big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of | :21:40. | :21:43. | |
the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local | :21:44. | :21:47. | |
by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and | :21:48. | :21:55. | |
in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a | :21:56. | :21:57. | |
Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of | :21:58. | :22:01. | |
ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is | :22:02. | :22:04. | |
uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do | :22:10. | :22:12. | |
terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing | :22:13. | :22:16. | |
relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely | :22:17. | :22:21. | |
to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in | :22:22. | :22:52. | |
the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour | :22:53. | :22:55. | |
Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We | :22:56. | :22:57. | |
are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the | :22:58. | :23:00. | |
mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general | :23:01. | :23:03. | |
election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in | :23:04. | :23:05. | |
the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general | :23:06. | :23:08. | |
election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the | :23:09. | :23:11. | |
West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a | :23:12. | :23:13. | |
headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to | :23:14. | :23:15. | |
lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for | :23:16. | :23:18. | |
their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his | :23:19. | :23:21. | |
party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty | :23:22. | :23:27. | |
dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart. | :23:28. | :23:30. | |
Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always | :23:31. | :23:36. | |
remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands. | :23:37. | :23:43. | |
Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base. | :23:44. | :23:48. | |
The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP | :23:49. | :23:54. | |
will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is | :23:55. | :23:57. | |
happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion | :23:58. | :24:02. | |
polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did | :24:03. | :24:06. | |
relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather | :24:07. | :24:11. | |
disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP | :24:16. | :24:23. | |
ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by | :24:24. | :24:26. | |
double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently | :24:27. | :24:30. | |
control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the | :24:31. | :24:34. | |
question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative | :24:35. | :24:38. | |
revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government | :24:39. | :24:43. | |
by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of | :24:44. | :24:47. | |
the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in | :24:48. | :24:53. | |
the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose | :24:54. | :24:56. | |
control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22 | :24:57. | :25:02. | |
local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose | :25:03. | :25:06. | |
ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought, | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff | :25:12. | :25:16. | |
could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold. | :25:17. | :25:22. | |
Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour | :25:23. | :25:24. | |
control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid | :25:25. | :25:40. | |
Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in | :25:41. | :25:42. | |
the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be | :25:43. | :25:45. | |
judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion | :25:46. | :25:47. | |
polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it | :25:48. | :25:50. | |
affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect | :25:51. | :25:57. | |
his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by | :25:58. | :26:00. | |
this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and | :26:01. | :26:05. | |
others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence | :26:06. | :26:11. | |
and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some | :26:12. | :26:16. | |
kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the | :26:17. | :26:20. | |
argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12 | :26:21. | :26:27. | |
months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament, | :26:28. | :26:34. | |
up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some | :26:35. | :26:38. | |
impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will | :26:39. | :26:44. | |
mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it | :26:45. | :26:50. | |
will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That | :26:51. | :26:55. | |
is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive | :26:56. | :27:00. | |
reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the | :27:01. | :27:04. | |
fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she | :27:05. | :27:07. | |
believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West | :27:08. | :27:12. | |
who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were | :27:13. | :27:15. | |
worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems. | :27:16. | :27:19. | |
The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got | :27:20. | :27:24. | |
other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the | :27:25. | :27:28. | |
success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says | :27:29. | :27:32. | |
this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face | :27:33. | :27:39. | |
before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a | :27:40. | :27:44. | |
good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results | :27:45. | :27:50. | |
will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem | :27:51. | :28:10. | |
threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory | :28:11. | :28:13. | |
party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried | :28:14. | :28:16. | |
about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems | :28:17. | :28:18. | |
because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve | :28:19. | :28:20. | |
about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding | :28:21. | :28:22. | |
repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think | :28:23. | :28:25. | |
he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership | :28:26. | :28:27. | |
contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to | :28:28. | :28:32. | |
be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they | :28:33. | :28:38. | |
were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland, | :28:39. | :28:43. | |
it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of | :28:44. | :28:47. | |
self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice. | :28:48. | :28:49. | |
Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it | :28:50. | :28:52. | |
Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew | :28:53. | :28:55. | |
Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces | :28:56. | :28:57. | |
It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the | :28:58. | :29:02. | |
Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool. | :29:03. | :29:04. | |
If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool. | :29:05. | :29:08. | |
Labour is trying to do something much harder, | :29:09. | :29:11. | |
which is to try and speak for the whole country, | :29:12. | :29:13. | |
and by the way, that is another part of | :29:14. | :29:15. | |
Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's | :29:16. | :29:19. | |
Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying, | :29:20. | :29:25. | |
let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%. | :29:26. | :29:27. | |
By the way, there is more that unites Remainers | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common | :29:34. | :29:35. | |
concerns about the way the country is run. | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth. | :29:41. | :29:45. | |
Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed | :29:51. | :29:55. | |
Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms | :29:56. | :30:02. | |
with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I | :30:03. | :30:06. | |
campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I | :30:07. | :30:10. | |
represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union. | :30:11. | :30:14. | |
Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky | :30:15. | :30:19. | |
nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this | :30:20. | :30:24. | |
democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant | :30:25. | :30:32. | |
legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before | :30:33. | :30:40. | |
Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I | :30:41. | :30:46. | |
will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election | :30:47. | :30:55. | |
date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across | :30:56. | :30:58. | |
the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what | :30:59. | :31:04. | |
Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We | :31:05. | :31:08. | |
have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No, | :31:09. | :31:16. | |
your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we | :31:17. | :31:23. | |
have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those | :31:24. | :31:26. | |
types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies | :31:27. | :31:30. | |
that decide general elections. The important places in the elections | :31:31. | :31:36. | |
are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are | :31:37. | :31:43. | |
marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well | :31:44. | :31:47. | |
in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who | :31:52. | :31:58. | |
voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime | :31:59. | :32:04. | |
Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is | :32:10. | :32:16. | |
important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the | :32:17. | :32:22. | |
trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people | :32:23. | :32:28. | |
who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for | :32:29. | :32:32. | |
other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate | :32:33. | :32:36. | |
that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am | :32:37. | :32:41. | |
not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see | :32:42. | :32:46. | |
online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was | :32:52. | :32:55. | |
not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our | :32:56. | :33:01. | |
neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from | :33:02. | :33:06. | |
voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among | :33:07. | :33:14. | |
nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the | :33:15. | :33:18. | |
mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this, | :33:19. | :33:24. | |
in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is | :33:25. | :33:34. | |
less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond | :33:35. | :33:39. | |
extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of | :33:40. | :33:43. | |
elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate | :33:44. | :33:50. | |
city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that | :33:51. | :33:56. | |
of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an | :33:57. | :34:08. | |
anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn, | :34:09. | :34:11. | |
from memory. We have not got elections in London but our | :34:12. | :34:16. | |
elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections... | :34:17. | :34:26. | |
What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the | :34:27. | :34:30. | |
opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it | :34:31. | :34:36. | |
is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do | :34:37. | :34:40. | |
well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley, | :34:41. | :34:47. | |
Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the | :34:48. | :34:53. | |
general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you? | :34:54. | :34:59. | |
What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative | :35:00. | :35:04. | |
garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me | :35:05. | :35:07. | |
about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people | :35:13. | :35:16. | |
the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks | :35:17. | :35:22. | |
so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements | :35:23. | :35:28. | |
and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey | :35:29. | :35:30. | |
was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education | :35:31. | :35:35. | |
spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools. | :35:36. | :35:40. | |
Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the | :35:41. | :35:44. | |
Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are | :35:45. | :35:48. | |
working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does | :35:49. | :35:53. | |
it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three | :35:54. | :36:00. | |
times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a | :36:01. | :36:04. | |
huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter | :36:05. | :36:08. | |
and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in | :36:09. | :36:16. | |
the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls | :36:17. | :36:23. | |
are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of | :36:24. | :36:27. | |
government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that | :36:28. | :36:30. | |
the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years | :36:31. | :36:34. | |
because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes | :36:35. | :36:40. | |
this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault | :36:41. | :36:45. | |
on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading | :36:51. | :36:54. | |
for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me | :36:55. | :36:58. | |
have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an | :36:59. | :37:01. | |
individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British | :37:02. | :37:05. | |
people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are | :37:06. | :37:08. | |
letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election | :37:09. | :37:16. | |
question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an | :37:17. | :37:21. | |
early election? The general election coordinator called for a general | :37:22. | :37:26. | |
election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in | :37:27. | :37:29. | |
staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the | :37:30. | :37:35. | |
Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the | :37:40. | :37:43. | |
election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you. | :37:44. | :37:51. | |
Our first flight to the home of flower power. | :37:52. | :38:05. | |
Could a bit of California dreaming bring some | :38:06. | :38:07. | |
It's all about connectivity and, great, | :38:08. | :38:12. | |
We always have wanted to trade with the EU. | :38:13. | :38:16. | |
We want to trade with the rest of the world as well. | :38:17. | :38:19. | |
If San Francisco doesn't do it for you, perhaps Wigan | :38:20. | :38:22. | |
Joining me this week are Labour's Lisa Nandy and Graham Evans | :38:23. | :38:26. | |
We also welcome Ukip treasurer John Bickley. | :38:27. | :38:31. | |
I mean, it's still a shock in some respect. | :38:32. | :38:37. | |
It took me some time to actually believe we'd won | :38:38. | :38:40. | |
the referendum but certainly, the tripling of Article 50 | :38:41. | :38:42. | |
and the deliverance of the letter to the EU is a seminal moment | :38:43. | :38:46. | |
That's true, that's how the Prime Minister put it, isn't it? | :38:47. | :38:53. | |
It did feel like a key moment after all | :38:54. | :38:55. | |
of these incremental changes, didn't it, Graham? | :38:56. | :38:56. | |
It was a very special day on Wednesday but not least, | :38:57. | :39:00. | |
if I can just mention, PC Palmer | :39:01. | :39:02. | |
from the week before, it was only a week | :39:03. | :39:04. | |
and although we had PMQs and then we had the Prime Minister's | :39:05. | :39:07. | |
statement, we did remember with a Book of Remembrance | :39:08. | :39:09. | |
in the house, so we did remember a PC Palmer and his bravery | :39:10. | :39:12. | |
That was at the beginning of the talks, wasn't it? | :39:13. | :39:16. | |
But we did go on to mark the triggering of Article 50, | :39:17. | :39:19. | |
Well, I expected it to feel very historic | :39:20. | :39:22. | |
It's been quite a sombre time in Westminster because | :39:23. | :39:25. | |
of everything that's happened and then it was quite a shock off | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
the back of that to see the letter that | :39:29. | :39:30. | |
the Prime Minister wrote to trigger Article 50 | :39:31. | :39:33. | |
that somehow the UK would be willing | :39:34. | :39:38. | |
to trade our security cooperation with other EU countries | :39:39. | :39:42. | |
for a better deal on trade and it seemed like a very odd contrast | :39:43. | :39:46. | |
between what happened last week, what happened this week... | :39:47. | :39:48. | |
That's the way it's been perceived by some. | :39:49. | :39:50. | |
So quite a lot to think about, really. | :39:51. | :39:54. | |
But first, we are four days down but there are 726 to go | :39:55. | :39:57. | |
before we officially leave the European Union. | :39:58. | :39:59. | |
This week, there were plans to broaden the horizons of our | :40:00. | :40:02. | |
two biggest cities beyond Europe, including the first flights | :40:03. | :40:05. | |
from outside London to the birthplace of flower power. | :40:06. | :40:08. | |
Mark Edwardson wonders if that means the future's | :40:09. | :40:10. | |
# If you're going to San Francisco...# | :40:11. | :40:21. | |
Manchester and San Francisco - the similarities run deep, | :40:22. | :40:25. | |
according to one delegate on the inaugural direct flight | :40:26. | :40:28. | |
Manchester's always reinvented cultures, history, you know, | :40:29. | :40:35. | |
we played a role in the abolition of slavery, | :40:36. | :40:37. | |
Silicon Valley, I mean, that all came | :40:38. | :40:41. | |
from the counterculture of the 60s and 70s. | :40:42. | :40:44. | |
Spirit in the sky - 30 of the region's leading | :40:45. | :40:46. | |
tech firms were represented on the flight. | :40:47. | :40:52. | |
Many of them planning to make 2017 the second summer of love. | :40:53. | :40:59. | |
Brexit is something that's constantly talked about | :41:00. | :41:02. | |
I personally don't think it's going to affect | :41:03. | :41:05. | |
The barriers to entry in that market for me are only going | :41:06. | :41:09. | |
to get, you know, less, so it's such an exciting time | :41:10. | :41:11. | |
for a tech start-up like Vibe Tickets to be going | :41:12. | :41:14. | |
out there and seeing what the rest of the world is doing. | :41:15. | :41:17. | |
Manchester-based data handling firm AMS | :41:18. | :41:19. | |
are very comfortable with a post-Brexit landscape. | :41:20. | :41:23. | |
It's interesting, isn't it, that we got ministers | :41:24. | :41:25. | |
in the region talking about international trade, | :41:26. | :41:27. | |
It's all about connectivity and, great, we want to trade | :41:28. | :41:31. | |
we always have wanted to trade with the EU. | :41:32. | :41:35. | |
We want to trade with the rest of the world as well. | :41:36. | :41:38. | |
At Garston Dock in Liverpool, there's something in the air. | :41:39. | :41:41. | |
A brand-new crane, part of an ?8 million investment. | :41:42. | :41:46. | |
But Merseyside's only Lib Dem MP says the future of places like this | :41:47. | :41:50. | |
An awful lot of our supplies to our businesses come in | :41:51. | :41:54. | |
If there are tariffs there, if there's going to be restrictions | :41:55. | :41:59. | |
on customs and that kind of thing, then life is going to become more | :42:00. | :42:02. | |
difficult for them and it's going to get more expensive | :42:03. | :42:04. | |
To give you an idea of the largely European nature of business | :42:05. | :42:08. | |
here at Garston Dock in Liverpool, the new crane was built in Finland, | :42:09. | :42:14. | |
the aggregate that it's dumping into those lorries | :42:15. | :42:16. | |
from the ship probably came from Spain or Portugal. | :42:17. | :42:20. | |
Yes, the trading patterns may be different and | :42:21. | :42:23. | |
All businesses you hear talk about not liking uncertainty | :42:24. | :42:27. | |
but you can either sit back and do nothing or you can do something | :42:28. | :42:31. | |
about it so we as a business are investing | :42:32. | :42:33. | |
nationally and we will continue to do so. | :42:34. | :42:37. | |
Associated British Ports, but also Peel down in the | :42:38. | :42:40. | |
They're making those investments in the new cranes | :42:41. | :42:46. | |
so that we're prepared and ready whatever the eventuality is. | :42:47. | :42:50. | |
It seems a post-Article 50 peace and love pragmatism has settled and | :42:51. | :42:54. | |
Thankfully spared the sight of Mark Edwardson | :42:55. | :43:04. | |
in a festival poncho there but, Lisa, we see | :43:05. | :43:06. | |
the green shoots in the economy, | :43:07. | :43:08. | |
in commerce, is it time to accept that 64% | :43:09. | :43:10. | |
Actually, Brexit is a good thing for our region? | :43:11. | :43:13. | |
I think it's absolutely time to accept that | :43:14. | :43:15. | |
the referendum is over and that a majority voted to leave | :43:16. | :43:18. | |
and Britain is now leaving the EU and unless we accept that, | :43:19. | :43:23. | |
And what comes next is really important because I agree | :43:24. | :43:27. | |
that we are a strong country, we're a country | :43:28. | :43:30. | |
with a lot to offer and we need to | :43:31. | :43:31. | |
go into the future with a sense of optimism... | :43:32. | :43:34. | |
..that the business is there portrayed, but that doesn't | :43:35. | :43:37. | |
mean that we shouldn't realise that a lot rests on the outcome of these | :43:38. | :43:40. | |
negotiations and we shouldn't take them very seriously. | :43:41. | :43:43. | |
But do you concede that the economy has proved buoyant | :43:44. | :43:45. | |
and it hasn't been as disastrous as you might have feared? | :43:46. | :43:48. | |
So, I think there are real complications with what happens | :43:49. | :43:51. | |
And I was never one of the people who subscribe to the idea | :43:52. | :43:57. | |
that the day that Britain voted to leave the EU, | :43:58. | :43:59. | |
suddenly the economy would fall off a cliff, but I do think | :44:00. | :44:02. | |
there are reasons to believe that there would be serious problems | :44:03. | :44:06. | |
for the North West's economy if we were to crash | :44:07. | :44:09. | |
out of the EU in two year's time with no deal. | :44:10. | :44:12. | |
And that's not just my view, that is the view of one | :44:13. | :44:15. | |
of the strongest pro-leave campaigners | :44:16. | :44:18. | |
John Bickley, we are facing a situation now where we are | :44:19. | :44:22. | |
not going to be able to strike a trade deal until we've | :44:23. | :44:25. | |
That is the rule stipulated by Donald Tusk. | :44:26. | :44:28. | |
And that's going to create a mess financially, is it not? | :44:29. | :44:31. | |
I mean, I noted there that Lisa had to use the word crash. | :44:32. | :44:36. | |
You hear people on the remains side who | :44:37. | :44:38. | |
just can't accept that they lost the referendum use the word hard | :44:39. | :44:41. | |
Are you not concerned that we can't reach a trade deal until...? | :44:42. | :44:46. | |
Because only 12% of this country's turnover goes | :44:47. | :44:50. | |
The majority of the wealth in this country and annual GDP | :44:51. | :44:56. | |
The rest of the world is growing faster than the EU. | :44:57. | :45:02. | |
Every country in the world outside of the EU, guess what? | :45:03. | :45:06. | |
Trades with the EU, has access to the single market. | :45:07. | :45:13. | |
You don't need to be a member of the single market | :45:14. | :45:16. | |
We don't know what it will be for two years. | :45:17. | :45:22. | |
We'll have to negotiate everything else before we find out what our | :45:23. | :45:26. | |
Some people want to give this impression it's complicated. | :45:27. | :45:29. | |
We could just revert to WTO rules, which most of the world | :45:30. | :45:31. | |
uses those rules to trade with the EU. | :45:32. | :45:33. | |
But the implication of that, John, would be that we weren't part | :45:34. | :45:36. | |
of the open skies agreement, so the planes that you just saw | :45:37. | :45:39. | |
that there wouldn't have permission to fly... | :45:40. | :45:41. | |
This is the view of the Brexit secretary. | :45:42. | :45:44. | |
Are you truly saying our planes will be able | :45:45. | :45:46. | |
If we don't sign up to a new open skies agreement, | :45:47. | :45:50. | |
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, appeared before the select committee | :45:51. | :45:54. | |
last week and confirmed that if we went into | :45:55. | :45:57. | |
the WTO system that you described without a deal, | :45:58. | :45:59. | |
Well, I don't believe that's the case. | :46:00. | :46:02. | |
And what I'm saying to you is the worst-case scenario... | :46:03. | :46:04. | |
It's in the EU's interest to sign a free trade deal with this country. | :46:05. | :46:09. | |
They sell considerably more to this country than vice versa. | :46:10. | :46:11. | |
If they truly care about their citizens, | :46:12. | :46:13. | |
German citizens who work for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen, | :46:14. | :46:16. | |
we're their biggest market in Europe. | :46:17. | :46:20. | |
I agree that it's in both of our interest to collaborate, | :46:21. | :46:23. | |
Surely you accept that if we did leave under WTO rules as you're | :46:24. | :46:29. | |
describing, there would be 40% tariffs on agriculture. | :46:30. | :46:31. | |
The Brexit secretary confirmed it last week. | :46:32. | :46:33. | |
We would not be part of the open skies agreement | :46:34. | :46:36. | |
and our planes wouldn't be able to... | :46:37. | :46:37. | |
Let's bring Graham in, let's bring Graham in. | :46:38. | :46:40. | |
I think it's a real opportunity, fantastic opportunity | :46:41. | :46:46. | |
for the businesses in the North West as your excellent piece. | :46:47. | :46:48. | |
I thought it was an excellent piece, of going to America. | :46:49. | :46:51. | |
The other growth countries in the world, India, China | :46:52. | :46:53. | |
We are still a manufacturing region so we have | :46:54. | :46:56. | |
But half of our trade, half of our export in the | :46:57. | :47:01. | |
North West goes to the EU and it's a slap | :47:02. | :47:04. | |
in the face this week for the | :47:05. | :47:06. | |
Prime Minister that Donald Tusk has said we're going to have to wait | :47:07. | :47:09. | |
But things are quite fluid, what people | :47:10. | :47:12. | |
But it's what we actually come up with at the end of | :47:13. | :47:16. | |
the negotiations and if we have access to the single market... | :47:17. | :47:19. | |
But would it feel that way if you run a factory? | :47:20. | :47:21. | |
No, we're still be able to export to the European Union. | :47:22. | :47:24. | |
We will still have access to that single market | :47:25. | :47:26. | |
but it doesn't stop us in the meantime forging those links | :47:27. | :47:29. | |
and those trade routes with other countries around the world. | :47:30. | :47:31. | |
A big concern at the moment, while the | :47:32. | :47:33. | |
Prime Minister is talking to Nicola Sturgeon, | :47:34. | :47:35. | |
negotiating with Scotland, our economy in the North West | :47:36. | :47:37. | |
is bigger than Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales combined | :47:38. | :47:39. | |
We do have her ear and as I say, this is a real opportunity. | :47:40. | :47:45. | |
The economy in the north-west of England | :47:46. | :47:47. | |
is growing faster than at stages in the South West, | :47:48. | :47:50. | |
We are a vibrant manufacturing economy. | :47:51. | :47:55. | |
We've got so many opportunities, as you saw in your film. | :47:56. | :47:57. | |
So I don't go along with what Lisa's saying. | :47:58. | :48:00. | |
Should have been a plan, if you win the referendum to | :48:01. | :48:04. | |
leave the European Union, should have been something in place? | :48:05. | :48:06. | |
The establishment, the Labour Party, the Tory party, | :48:07. | :48:15. | |
the Liberal party, all assumed that we | :48:16. | :48:17. | |
So they just were arrogant in assuming... | :48:18. | :48:19. | |
But did you not have a responsibility to communicate | :48:20. | :48:21. | |
to the public that there could be a bill as high as ?50 billion | :48:22. | :48:25. | |
Well, sorry, this is the EU trying to... | :48:26. | :48:28. | |
But did you not have a responsibility to warn the public | :48:29. | :48:33. | |
The bill that we will have to pay, we will have to pay. | :48:34. | :48:38. | |
Donald Tusk has said we will have to settle that. | :48:39. | :48:46. | |
Just because Donald Tusk says that this box is pink, not blue, | :48:47. | :48:50. | |
So we leave without any deal whatsoever? | :48:51. | :48:53. | |
Ultimately, if the EU is intransigent and ignores putting | :48:54. | :48:55. | |
together what we call a free-trade deal which is in their consumers' | :48:56. | :48:58. | |
interest as as ours, there are big companies | :48:59. | :49:00. | |
want to continue to trade with this country... | :49:01. | :49:02. | |
And, look, I do agree with you, Graham, that there | :49:03. | :49:07. | |
are lots of reasons to be optimistic about what the UK has to offer and | :49:08. | :49:10. | |
the fact is that we've had very strong partnerships with other EU | :49:11. | :49:13. | |
But the problem comes if you do what John is | :49:14. | :49:21. | |
suggesting and you crash out of the EU... | :49:22. | :49:23. | |
Under WTO rules, because what that means | :49:24. | :49:27. | |
instantly, there will be tariffs on our imports and exports, | :49:28. | :49:30. | |
there will be a hard border in Northern Ireland | :49:31. | :49:32. | |
threatening the peace agreement, there are real problems. | :49:33. | :49:34. | |
Donald Tusk has said he's going to look at the | :49:35. | :49:36. | |
border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. | :49:37. | :49:38. | |
No, I'm sorry, it is completely irresponsible! | :49:39. | :49:41. | |
I believe in this country, John, but I don't | :49:42. | :49:45. | |
believe in politicians like you who are telling the public lies. | :49:46. | :49:47. | |
Donald Tusk has said is one of the first | :49:48. | :49:50. | |
Let's hear from Graham, let's hear from Graham. | :49:51. | :49:56. | |
The border between Northern Ireland and the | :49:57. | :49:58. | |
Republic of Ireland, Donald Tusk has said that's one | :49:59. | :50:00. | |
of the first things they're going to sort out. | :50:01. | :50:02. | |
And will you make sure the Prime Minister | :50:03. | :50:04. | |
says the first thing she'll do is come up here and talk | :50:05. | :50:07. | |
Because she's been invited to and she's declined the invite. | :50:08. | :50:11. | |
Well, to be fair to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet... | :50:12. | :50:13. | |
Gordon Brown has said this week that we're | :50:14. | :50:15. | |
In the early part of the year, she launched | :50:16. | :50:18. | |
the industrial strategy in my constituency and came up with the | :50:19. | :50:21. | |
Cabinet, so she has a very good record. | :50:22. | :50:23. | |
She came up, but she want to meet with council leaders and talk | :50:24. | :50:26. | |
about the implications of Brexit for the North. | :50:27. | :50:28. | |
David Davis is going to do that and I'll speak to | :50:29. | :50:31. | |
I'm sure she'd love to come up to the north-west of | :50:32. | :50:35. | |
We're going to have to move on, sorry, John. | :50:36. | :50:42. | |
George Osborne called him a star of local Government | :50:43. | :50:44. | |
and Andy Burnham called him one of the most incredible | :50:45. | :50:46. | |
In 46 years at Manchester City Council, 19 as chief executive, | :50:47. | :50:51. | |
Sir Howard Bernstein has rebuilt the city | :50:52. | :50:52. | |
after the IRA bombing and injected the ambition | :50:53. | :50:54. | |
and vision to turn it into an economic | :50:55. | :50:56. | |
I went to meeting this week at his office. | :50:57. | :50:59. | |
It was 1971 when a young Howard Bernstein from Cheetham Hill | :51:00. | :51:02. | |
entered Manchester town Hall to do the washing up. | :51:03. | :51:04. | |
He describes Manchester then as a city with soul | :51:05. | :51:07. | |
And just felt my role was able to shape Manchester in the future. | :51:08. | :51:18. | |
Yes. Yes. | :51:19. | :51:22. | |
Opportunities are sometimes disguised in grotesque form | :51:23. | :51:25. | |
and Howards's came on the 15th of June 1996. | :51:26. | :51:31. | |
Some people say it's the best thing that ever happened to Manchester | :51:32. | :51:34. | |
and it did not feel like that at the time, did it? | :51:35. | :51:37. | |
It was an appalling period, certainly in my life. | :51:38. | :51:42. | |
And I think most Mancunian's lives as well | :51:43. | :51:43. | |
# You've got to roll with it You've got to take your time #. | :51:44. | :51:51. | |
But Manchester sprang out of the rubble, | :51:52. | :51:54. | |
defiantly transformed and guided by Sir Howard's vision. | :51:55. | :51:57. | |
National architecture awards followed and Howard from | :51:58. | :52:01. | |
How does it make you feel to think, | :52:02. | :52:05. | |
You know, when you look at the challenges we've had over the last | :52:06. | :52:14. | |
20 years and we see how the city has changed, of course, I feel | :52:15. | :52:18. | |
privileged to have been able to play a part in that. | :52:19. | :52:22. | |
How did it feel when you sat and watched the opening ceremony | :52:23. | :52:25. | |
The whole period leading up to the Commonwealth Games | :52:26. | :52:39. | |
One good thing that came out of them - his beloved Manchester City | :52:40. | :52:47. | |
You oversaw the city of Manchester Stadium becoming | :52:48. | :52:51. | |
Did you declare personal interest at that point? | :52:52. | :52:54. | |
It was written on my wrist everywhere. | :52:55. | :52:59. | |
But at the end of the day, Man City was the | :53:00. | :53:03. | |
only show in town if we were going to build a permanent stadium. | :53:04. | :53:07. | |
And it's just great that that stadium | :53:08. | :53:09. | |
has coincided with an upsurge in the club's fortunes. | :53:10. | :53:12. | |
Sir Howard says he leaves the city still on the up, | :53:13. | :53:15. | |
rising global investments, the fastest growing | :53:16. | :53:17. | |
He does regret Brexit but also feels the EU has become too political. | :53:18. | :53:24. | |
Do you feel as a political institution, its days are numbered? | :53:25. | :53:28. | |
I think there's going to have to be reform of the EU | :53:29. | :53:31. | |
Whether or not it will be on the back of Brexit, | :53:32. | :53:37. | |
I'm absolutely certain reform of one form or another | :53:38. | :53:39. | |
After 46 years of walking through these doors, | :53:40. | :53:45. | |
Manchester isn't just about the people in here, is it? | :53:46. | :53:50. | |
And want to do the best for themselves and for the city | :53:51. | :54:02. | |
and in my own way, I'm going to continue | :54:03. | :54:11. | |
to work for Manchester and play my full part | :54:12. | :54:14. | |
in this city's future success. | :54:15. | :54:15. | |
You certainly haven't seen the last of me. | :54:16. | :54:19. | |
Thank you very much, that was lovely. | :54:20. | :54:20. | |
Lisa, you grew up in Manchester in the 80s, as | :54:21. | :54:23. | |
We have got a lot to be grateful for. | :54:24. | :54:26. | |
It's unrecognisable to what it was back then, isn't it? | :54:27. | :54:28. | |
Yes, it's transformed incredibly over that time | :54:29. | :54:30. | |
and I think one of the things | :54:31. | :54:32. | |
that I didn't know as a child but that you do become | :54:33. | :54:34. | |
much more aware of is that in the background has been a team | :54:35. | :54:38. | |
overseen by Howard who has never pushed | :54:39. | :54:42. | |
to protect Manchester from some of the buffeting that | :54:43. | :54:46. | |
other areas of the country have got and I think we have a lot to be | :54:47. | :54:49. | |
And actually, he did say part of it was working with the | :54:50. | :54:53. | |
Conservative Government through the 80s and 90s, | :54:54. | :54:55. | |
And in the end, although you see us all having a big knock-about | :54:56. | :55:00. | |
and we do have very fundamentally serious disagreements | :55:01. | :55:02. | |
about things, in the end, if you want to make | :55:03. | :55:04. | |
change for people, you work together. | :55:05. | :55:05. | |
There are a lot of statues in Manchester. | :55:06. | :55:07. | |
Perhaps there could be another one for Sir Howard. | :55:08. | :55:10. | |
So Howard has been a driving force in the city | :55:11. | :55:14. | |
for a generation but a key player soon will be the metro mayor | :55:15. | :55:17. | |
and that's because greater Manchester and Liverpool city | :55:18. | :55:19. | |
region, which is Merseyside plus Holton, will elect regional mayors | :55:20. | :55:21. | |
In Merseyside, the mayor and combined | :55:22. | :55:25. | |
authority - that is the six councils working together - will get | :55:26. | :55:27. | |
?900 million over 30 years and powers over apprenticeships | :55:28. | :55:29. | |
and skills, Housing and planning, transport and integration of health | :55:30. | :55:32. | |
Greater Manchester's mayor and combined authority | :55:33. | :55:35. | |
will get the same and more. | :55:36. | :55:38. | |
?300 million to invest in housing, influence over the devolved | :55:39. | :55:41. | |
?6 billion health budget, control of | :55:42. | :55:42. | |
policing as well as powers over the justice system. | :55:43. | :55:46. | |
Graham, this is significant, isn't it? | :55:47. | :55:48. | |
But again, it's not something we've heard the | :55:49. | :55:50. | |
Government post-Osborne talk a lot about. | :55:51. | :55:51. | |
Is there a feel that they're interested that this | :55:52. | :55:54. | |
devolution is happening in the north-west? | :55:55. | :55:55. | |
It's a very good thing for Manchester and also for Liverpool. | :55:56. | :55:59. | |
What's good enough for London has got to be | :56:00. | :56:02. | |
good for cities such as Manchester and Liverpool | :56:03. | :56:06. | |
I said this to Steve, you have to go out into the world and sell | :56:07. | :56:17. | |
Liverpool and Merseyside and the same goes with Manchester was | :56:18. | :56:20. | |
following on from Sir Howard, it is a global | :56:21. | :56:22. | |
way to sell Manchester and therefore the region. | :56:23. | :56:24. | |
It's good for the region, not just for the cities. | :56:25. | :56:26. | |
John, people will say Ukip and have a role in this. | :56:27. | :56:29. | |
I guess, to be honest with you, one of the things | :56:30. | :56:37. | |
that concerns me about mayoral elections, the same for the police | :56:38. | :56:42. | |
and crime commissioner, they become politicised. | :56:43. | :56:44. | |
The main parties effectively fight amongst themselves | :56:45. | :56:46. | |
I would rather see mayors and police and crime commissioners | :56:47. | :56:53. | |
elected without any involvement | :56:54. | :56:55. | |
Unfortunately, all were getting now is just a reflection | :56:56. | :57:02. | |
of the local politics where the person who stands for | :57:03. | :57:06. | |
either Police and Crime Commissioner or the Mayor is just a party... | :57:07. | :57:11. | |
That that person goes beyond becoming a figurehead | :57:12. | :57:15. | |
and actually has too much control? | :57:16. | :57:17. | |
I think the key is that you have to have somebody in that role | :57:18. | :57:20. | |
who is prepared to work across party. | :57:21. | :57:22. | |
So in the way that the greater Manchester local authorities | :57:23. | :57:26. | |
have done, even though they've got mixed | :57:27. | :57:28. | |
political leadership over the years | :57:29. | :57:35. | |
which has led to this deal being achieved, | :57:36. | :57:37. | |
I also think that we need much stronger scrutiny | :57:38. | :57:39. | |
arrangements in greater Manchester because the mayor at the moment is | :57:40. | :57:42. | |
only accountable through an election every few years. | :57:43. | :57:44. | |
But I also think there's a real risk here which is | :57:45. | :57:46. | |
that it's a fantastic thing that more power is coming to our region | :57:47. | :57:50. | |
and we should all welcome it but Graham lapsed into, | :57:51. | :57:52. | |
and I know it was just a shorthand about talking | :57:53. | :57:54. | |
about Manchester and Liverpool and the cities. | :57:55. | :57:57. | |
Actually, there is a problem here because behind Osborne's agenda | :57:58. | :57:59. | |
was an idea that cities are engines of growth in this | :58:00. | :58:02. | |
country and towns can form part of that region | :58:03. | :58:06. | |
and be pulled along in their wake. | :58:07. | :58:09. | |
Now, that can't be the sum total of our vision for places | :58:10. | :58:15. | |
I want one for Cheshire, I want the same for Cheshire. | :58:16. | :58:20. | |
But what I'm saying is we need to make sure that this | :58:21. | :58:25. | |
model invests in all parts of our region | :58:26. | :58:27. | |
Well, they may be redundant, you know, once we leave the EU. | :58:28. | :58:32. | |
Because once we leave the EU and Parliament | :58:33. | :58:34. | |
becomes sovereign again, so that you guys to go down there | :58:35. | :58:36. | |
actually do make our laws rather than just being aggregating... | :58:37. | :58:39. | |
Well, no, the whole point of having these | :58:40. | :58:40. | |
devolved authorities and having a directly elected mayor is that | :58:41. | :58:43. | |
After Brexit, you may find a different model at work. | :58:44. | :58:46. | |
John, the one thing we've not mentioned is the | :58:47. | :58:49. | |
The whole point of these is to get the north working | :58:50. | :58:52. | |
together to rebalance the economy between the North and the South. | :58:53. | :58:55. | |
If you have strong regional mayors, | :58:56. | :58:58. | |
that will bring the whole of the North together, | :58:59. | :59:02. | |
the infrastructure, the inward investment | :59:03. | :59:04. | |
the global infrastructure of putting the North | :59:05. | :59:05. | |
on the map so that the world will think about investing in the north | :59:06. | :59:09. | |
rather than just in London and the south-east. | :59:10. | :59:10. | |
London and the south-east is so, so powerful. | :59:11. | :59:12. | |
And Lisa's right, we as politicians have | :59:13. | :59:14. | |
This is why it's so important those mayors do | :59:15. | :59:18. | |
do that to promote the North | :59:19. | :59:19. | |
They shouldn't be members and connected to... | :59:20. | :59:23. | |
We find out who they are on the 5th of May. | :59:24. | :59:26. | |
Carol has got a look at the rest of this week's news now. | :59:27. | :59:29. | |
The Justice Secretary was asked to review the | :59:30. | :59:36. | |
suspended sentence handed to a man who beat his wife and | :59:37. | :59:39. | |
A crime has been committed and it must be seen to be | :59:40. | :59:45. | |
a crime that is abghorent to society and that | :59:46. | :59:47. | |
must be reflected in the sentencing. | :59:48. | :59:49. | |
A so-called Hillsborough law compelling public officials to | :59:50. | :59:52. | |
be truthful at enquiries and ensuring legal aid for bereaved | :59:53. | :59:56. | |
Could high-speed rail hit the buffers? | :59:57. | :00:02. | |
The main contractor for the section of HS2 between Crewe and | :00:03. | :00:04. | |
Manchester pulled out over a conflict-of-interest. | :00:05. | :00:08. | |
They are designing, they are getting on with it. | :00:09. | :00:14. | |
It's a large project and it will now be delayed. | :00:15. | :00:17. | |
Also in a slot of bother, is the company due to | :00:18. | :00:22. | |
build a new nuclear power station next to Sellafield. | :00:23. | :00:24. | |
But Westinghouse said filing for bankruptcy protection | :00:25. | :00:26. | |
would only affect projects in America. | :00:27. | :00:27. | |
And a minute's silence was held in Salford to remember | :00:28. | :00:30. | |
those who lost their lives in the terror attack in Westminster. | :00:31. | :00:39. | |
Graham wants you to know he'll be running his sixth marathon | :00:40. | :00:47. | |
on the 23rd, because he's modest like that(!) | :00:48. | :00:49. | |
I'll hand you back to Andrew in London. | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes | :00:54. | :01:06. | |
Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits? | :01:07. | :01:10. | |
And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour, | :01:11. | :01:12. | |
To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford | :01:13. | :01:25. | |
by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael. | :01:26. | :01:29. | |
Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will | :01:30. | :01:39. | |
it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can | :01:40. | :01:44. | |
predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning | :01:45. | :01:50. | |
with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not | :01:51. | :01:54. | |
mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration. | :01:55. | :02:02. | |
Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in | :02:03. | :02:11. | |
business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why | :02:12. | :02:15. | |
we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under | :02:16. | :02:21. | |
Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you | :02:22. | :02:26. | |
do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up | :02:27. | :02:29. | |
lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you | :02:30. | :02:36. | |
used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get | :02:37. | :02:41. | |
back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a | :02:42. | :02:44. | |
mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in | :02:45. | :02:49. | |
this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places | :02:50. | :02:55. | |
like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the | :02:56. | :03:00. | |
country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the | :03:01. | :03:03. | |
Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic | :03:04. | :03:11. | |
areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well | :03:12. | :03:15. | |
which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has | :03:22. | :03:25. | |
taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is | :03:26. | :03:31. | |
fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are | :03:32. | :03:37. | |
discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if | :03:38. | :03:41. | |
they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works. | :03:42. | :03:49. | |
If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124 | :04:02. | :04:10. | |
seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very | :04:15. | :04:17. | |
effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is | :04:18. | :04:23. | |
not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately, | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it | :04:29. | :04:34. | |
not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is | :04:39. | :04:43. | |
something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people | :04:44. | :04:47. | |
the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social | :05:02. | :05:07. | |
democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party | :05:13. | :05:15. | |
together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own | :05:16. | :05:20. | |
decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you | :05:21. | :05:28. | |
saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing | :05:33. | :05:36. | |
could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is | :05:37. | :05:42. | |
moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax | :05:55. | :06:00. | |
changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to | :06:01. | :06:04. | |
?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate | :06:05. | :06:10. | |
threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes, | :06:17. | :06:24. | |
freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax | :06:25. | :06:31. | |
credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two | :06:37. | :06:42. | |
children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched | :06:43. | :06:49. | |
the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit | :06:50. | :06:55. | |
changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third | :06:56. | :07:03. | |
or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The | :07:04. | :07:08. | |
Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I | :07:14. | :07:19. | |
have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the | :07:28. | :07:30. | |
state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by | :07:31. | :07:37. | |
better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have | :07:41. | :07:48. | |
to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
other language and the role of the government and the state when she | :07:54. | :07:57. | |
sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she | :08:02. | :08:06. | |
says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not | :08:07. | :08:14. | |
what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would | :08:15. | :08:18. | |
not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a | :08:19. | :08:23. | |
much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of | :08:24. | :08:29. | |
progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when | :08:30. | :08:34. | |
George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they | :08:35. | :08:36. | |
were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
government was going to meet the demand for public services when it | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare | :08:51. | :08:56. | |
issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution | :08:57. | :08:59. | |
Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which | :09:00. | :09:05. | |
has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from | :09:06. | :09:08. | |
the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September. | :09:09. | :09:14. | |
Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the | :09:15. | :09:17. | |
losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem | :09:18. | :09:23. | |
for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her | :09:24. | :09:26. | |
narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have | :09:32. | :09:37. | |
at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still | :09:38. | :09:39. | |
saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and | :09:40. | :09:46. | |
spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle | :09:47. | :09:50. | |
classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely | :09:51. | :09:53. | |
going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to | :09:54. | :09:57. | |
mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was | :09:58. | :10:00. | |
told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came | :10:01. | :10:06. | |
up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions | :10:07. | :10:11. | |
involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you | :10:20. | :10:24. | |
find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance | :10:25. | :10:28. | |
rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of | :10:29. | :10:33. | |
the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an | :10:39. | :10:44. | |
albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel | :10:49. | :10:54. | |
duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going | :10:55. | :10:57. | |
to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they | :10:58. | :11:03. | |
end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up | :11:08. | :11:12. | |
in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to | :11:18. | :11:23. | |
have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would | :11:24. | :11:27. | |
like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives | :11:36. | :11:40. | |
feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the | :11:41. | :11:45. | |
need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very | :11:46. | :11:51. | |
interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is | :11:52. | :11:55. | |
trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and | :11:56. | :12:02. | |
spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending. | :12:03. | :12:08. | |
Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to | :12:18. | :12:25. | |
India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The | :12:32. | :12:36. | |
prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest | :12:37. | :12:42. | |
answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one | :12:43. | :12:46. | |
because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms | :12:47. | :12:49. | |
will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to | :12:50. | :12:53. | |
trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in | :12:59. | :13:02. | |
a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it. | :13:03. | :13:08. | |
Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get | :13:09. | :13:13. | |
out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day | :13:14. | :13:17. | |
after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal | :13:22. | :13:27. | |
talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this. | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have | :13:37. | :13:43. | |
run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the | :13:44. | :13:47. | |
Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the | :13:48. | :13:51. | |
Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess. | :13:52. | :14:20. | |
Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency. | :14:21. | :14:23. | |
As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past, | :14:24. | :14:27. | |
we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?" | :14:28. | :14:51. | |
I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin. | :14:52. | :15:00. | |
So, can anybody speak Italian? No. Non parlo italiano. | :15:01. | :15:05. |