14/05/2017 Sunday Politics North West


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14/05/2017

Andrew Neil is joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, housing minister Brandon Lewis and American political pollster Frank Luntz.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:39.

Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes

:00:40.:00:42.

in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -

:00:43.:00:45.

Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax

:00:46.:00:52.

to fund public services, but will traders just

:00:53.:00:54.

Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,

:00:55.:00:58.

insists he can win this election - so which way will

:00:59.:01:01.

We'll hear from a focus group in Leeds.

:01:02.:01:05.

Has the bubble burst or can Ukip rise again?

:01:06.:01:09.

We'll assess the post-Brexit battle for votes in Blackpool.

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and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air

:01:15.:01:16.

pollution problem in London. And with me, our own scientifically

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selected focus group of political pundits -

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they're not so much undecided as clueless -

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Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott They'll be tweeting

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throughout the programme. So, we've got two new

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policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce

:01:40.:01:41.

a financial transaction tax if they win the general election

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and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax

:01:44.:01:46.

avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work

:01:47.:01:48.

with local authorities in England to build council houses

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with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy

:01:51.:01:53.

"will help thousands of people get on the first rung

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of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I

:01:56.:02:08.

have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in

:02:09.:02:12.

pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as

:02:13.:02:16.

literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the

:02:17.:02:20.

Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it

:02:21.:02:25.

framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a

:02:26.:02:29.

sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a

:02:30.:02:34.

narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an

:02:35.:02:37.

argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour

:02:38.:02:45.

government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said

:02:46.:02:47.

right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a

:02:48.:02:50.

housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit

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George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get

:02:55.:02:59.

house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it

:03:00.:03:03.

works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes

:03:04.:03:08.

sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa

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May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly

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these two announcements have something in common which is that

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over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.

:03:24.:03:30.

Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't

:03:31.:03:34.

agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like

:03:35.:03:40.

a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might

:03:41.:03:45.

become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is

:03:46.:03:49.

difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what

:03:50.:03:54.

looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase

:03:55.:03:59.

orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will

:04:00.:04:03.

change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market

:04:04.:04:07.

value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily

:04:08.:04:12.

with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both

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would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and

:04:20.:04:23.

traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then

:04:24.:04:30.

councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the

:04:31.:04:37.

city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the

:04:38.:04:40.

Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is

:04:41.:04:45.

talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now

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Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is

:04:50.:04:57.

the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most

:04:58.:05:01.

interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC

:05:02.:05:08.

correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't

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worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising

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it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the

:05:17.:05:23.

macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very

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well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.

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Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.

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But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -

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that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media

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Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra

:05:40.:05:47.

?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social

:05:48.:05:50.

care over the lifetime of the next parliament,

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as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over

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The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,

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although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious

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about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence

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and security review immediately after the election.

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In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable

:06:10.:06:11.

management of migration", but it will not make "false

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Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,

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and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises

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for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.

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The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail

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and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one

:06:30.:06:36.

A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics

:06:37.:06:41.

as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss

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about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates

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told us they thought it had been deliberately

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leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting

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the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"

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And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,

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Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise

:06:58.:07:06.

the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out

:07:07.:07:11.

rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the

:07:12.:07:15.

railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three

:07:16.:07:19.

Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to

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comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what

:07:27.:07:32.

is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will

:07:33.:07:36.

nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking

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the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail

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will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail

:07:46.:07:50.

until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound

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very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National

:07:55.:08:01.

Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to

:08:02.:08:06.

nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you

:08:07.:08:11.

will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the

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National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just

:08:18.:08:21.

have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is

:08:22.:08:26.

it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that

:08:27.:08:30.

costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I

:08:31.:08:36.

would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform

:08:37.:08:40.

the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority

:08:41.:08:43.

stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion

:08:44.:08:49.

in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for

:08:50.:08:55.

reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not

:08:56.:08:59.

going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the

:09:00.:09:02.

distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising

:09:03.:09:07.

the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on

:09:08.:09:12.

Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent

:09:13.:09:15.

years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in

:09:16.:09:23.

answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for

:09:24.:09:29.

nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the

:09:30.:09:32.

energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big

:09:33.:09:37.

six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to

:09:38.:09:42.

be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,

:09:43.:09:49.

you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with

:09:50.:09:53.

the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty

:09:54.:10:00.

to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The

:10:01.:10:06.

Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British

:10:07.:10:10.

taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a

:10:11.:10:14.

long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a

:10:15.:10:18.

key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in

:10:19.:10:23.

our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households

:10:24.:10:26.

ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal

:10:27.:10:31.

providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John

:10:32.:10:36.

McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top

:10:37.:10:40.

of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You

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will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years

:10:47.:10:53.

after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing

:10:54.:11:00.

75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of

:11:01.:11:06.

capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our

:11:07.:11:10.

financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a

:11:11.:11:14.

state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we

:11:15.:11:17.

won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.

:11:18.:11:24.

How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75

:11:25.:11:28.

billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500

:11:29.:11:35.

billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure

:11:36.:11:39.

that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a

:11:40.:11:42.

figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial

:11:43.:11:46.

competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the

:11:47.:11:55.

CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250

:11:56.:11:59.

billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the

:12:00.:12:04.

fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a

:12:05.:12:08.

proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have

:12:09.:12:15.

just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will

:12:16.:12:19.

ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the

:12:20.:12:23.

parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state

:12:24.:12:31.

than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will

:12:32.:12:35.

ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came

:12:36.:12:39.

to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft

:12:40.:12:47.

manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going

:12:48.:12:50.

to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps

:12:51.:12:55.

we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for

:12:56.:12:59.

corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your

:13:00.:13:03.

predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end

:13:04.:13:08.

of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their

:13:09.:13:12.

behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or

:13:13.:13:17.

they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to

:13:18.:13:23.

make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and

:13:24.:13:26.

costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.

:13:27.:13:32.

We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes

:13:33.:13:34.

in market activity because that would be approved and direction to

:13:35.:13:39.

take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United

:13:40.:13:47.

States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are

:13:48.:13:50.

already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,

:13:51.:13:55.

if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number

:13:56.:14:00.

of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in

:14:01.:14:06.

the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting

:14:07.:14:10.

corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business

:14:11.:14:14.

investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent

:14:15.:14:17.

years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in

:14:18.:14:24.

things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce

:14:25.:14:28.

the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the

:14:29.:14:33.

Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the

:14:34.:14:40.

proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can

:14:41.:14:43.

invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.

:14:44.:14:50.

Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in

:14:51.:15:00.

?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a

:15:01.:15:07.

year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so

:15:08.:15:13.

what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it

:15:14.:15:17.

increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about

:15:18.:15:23.

cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to

:15:24.:15:27.

thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are

:15:28.:15:33.

industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate

:15:34.:15:40.

businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if

:15:41.:15:44.

we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am

:15:45.:15:51.

not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business

:15:52.:15:59.

tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to

:16:00.:16:03.

thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on

:16:04.:16:14.

business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own

:16:15.:16:19.

labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not

:16:20.:16:24.

want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding

:16:25.:16:29.

with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing

:16:30.:16:33.

global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.

:16:34.:16:37.

Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't

:16:38.:16:43.

cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought

:16:44.:16:48.

in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has

:16:49.:16:52.

changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that

:16:53.:16:57.

change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a

:16:58.:17:02.

lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We

:17:03.:17:06.

need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the

:17:07.:17:13.

computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other

:17:14.:17:18.

countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what

:17:19.:17:21.

other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at

:17:22.:17:29.

introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will

:17:30.:17:36.

be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at

:17:37.:17:41.

the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in

:17:42.:17:45.

2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are

:17:46.:17:50.

going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which

:17:51.:17:55.

generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a

:17:56.:17:59.

significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied

:18:00.:18:10.

at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the

:18:11.:18:15.

instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.

:18:16.:18:20.

This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in

:18:21.:18:23.

terms of financial services because there is more to keep these

:18:24.:18:28.

businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the

:18:29.:18:32.

economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we

:18:33.:18:36.

will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.

:18:37.:18:40.

And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.

:18:41.:18:46.

Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower

:18:47.:18:52.

than international standards, so why are so many global companies who

:18:53.:18:59.

make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of

:19:00.:19:04.

the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not

:19:05.:19:07.

answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the

:19:08.:19:13.

important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it

:19:14.:19:17.

encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may

:19:18.:19:22.

say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.

:19:23.:19:28.

But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and

:19:29.:19:37.

did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading

:19:38.:19:41.

internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our

:19:42.:19:49.

partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than

:19:50.:19:53.

they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,

:19:54.:19:57.

alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the

:19:58.:20:03.

people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the

:20:04.:20:07.

corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and

:20:08.:20:12.

more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a

:20:13.:20:16.

number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been

:20:17.:20:23.

able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the

:20:24.:20:25.

changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British

:20:26.:20:33.

companies, not from these international companies. It is

:20:34.:20:36.

because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good

:20:37.:20:40.

thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack

:20:41.:20:46.

down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused

:20:47.:20:50.

to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by

:20:51.:20:56.

cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking

:20:57.:21:01.

down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap

:21:02.:21:06.

is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.

:21:07.:21:12.

It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have

:21:13.:21:18.

brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax

:21:19.:21:22.

schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone

:21:23.:21:32.

from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the

:21:33.:21:34.

Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money

:21:35.:21:39.

on these companies while still having a competitive rate to

:21:40.:21:45.

encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to

:21:46.:21:50.

prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on

:21:51.:21:53.

average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms

:21:54.:21:59.

by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it

:22:00.:22:05.

that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,

:22:06.:22:09.

Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual

:22:10.:22:15.

income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,

:22:16.:22:24.

people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep

:22:25.:22:26.

emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years

:22:27.:22:30.

and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.

:22:31.:22:37.

Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.

:22:38.:22:42.

There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.

:22:43.:22:49.

1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their

:22:50.:22:52.

careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,

:22:53.:22:56.

investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,

:22:57.:23:01.

companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities

:23:02.:23:06.

that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about

:23:07.:23:09.

hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than

:23:10.:23:14.

they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives

:23:15.:23:19.

have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has

:23:20.:23:22.

shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of

:23:23.:23:28.

?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions

:23:29.:23:34.

kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one

:23:35.:23:38.

law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of

:23:39.:23:44.

all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare

:23:45.:23:49.

and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people

:23:50.:23:55.

in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that

:23:56.:24:02.

allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket

:24:03.:24:07.

to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,

:24:08.:24:13.

among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as

:24:14.:24:19.

we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen

:24:20.:24:25.

millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these

:24:26.:24:29.

questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just

:24:30.:24:34.

about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and

:24:35.:24:38.

below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We

:24:39.:24:42.

have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone

:24:43.:24:47.

up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages

:24:48.:24:54.

will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for

:24:55.:24:58.

housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,

:24:59.:25:03.

social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the

:25:04.:25:07.

associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4

:25:08.:25:11.

billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you

:25:12.:25:19.

get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local

:25:20.:25:22.

authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.

:25:23.:25:29.

I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at

:25:30.:25:33.

100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at

:25:34.:25:39.

you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the

:25:40.:25:44.

local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is

:25:45.:25:48.

what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the

:25:49.:25:52.

money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the

:25:53.:25:55.

expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the

:25:56.:26:01.

housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how

:26:02.:26:07.

many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on

:26:08.:26:12.

it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what

:26:13.:26:17.

the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities

:26:18.:26:21.

who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.

:26:22.:26:24.

What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,

:26:25.:26:29.

they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,

:26:30.:26:32.

the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with

:26:33.:26:37.

them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I

:26:38.:26:41.

want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what

:26:42.:26:47.

the target and timescale is, and this government, under which

:26:48.:26:50.

affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million

:26:51.:26:56.

families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your

:26:57.:27:02.

record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what

:27:03.:27:06.

we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a

:27:07.:27:11.

strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This

:27:12.:27:18.

is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,

:27:19.:27:24.

75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.

:27:25.:27:29.

That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the

:27:30.:27:33.

industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in

:27:34.:27:44.

2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000

:27:45.:27:49.

affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.

:27:50.:27:57.

So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have

:27:58.:28:04.

delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour

:28:05.:28:10.

did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,

:28:11.:28:14.

working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in

:28:15.:28:15.

their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit

:28:16.:28:19.

of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those

:28:20.:28:22.

around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got

:28:23.:28:25.

three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those

:28:26.:28:28.

fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation

:28:29.:28:30.

YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders

:28:31.:28:35.

will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters

:28:36.:28:37.

of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home

:28:38.:28:47.

to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited

:28:48.:28:52.

from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't

:28:53.:28:54.

decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,

:28:55.:28:58.

two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up

:28:59.:29:00.

political press at Downing Street under David Cameron

:29:01.:29:07.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron

:29:08.:29:14.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself

:29:15.:29:16.

as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it

:29:17.:29:20.

came about who you want,

:29:21.:29:40.

if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus

:29:41.:29:44.

groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,

:29:45.:29:48.

even though some of those same people have been saying we quite

:29:49.:29:50.

like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's

:29:51.:29:53.

going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive

:29:54.:29:57.

manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,

:29:58.:29:59.

that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that

:30:00.:30:03.

you don't recognise? After a little warm up,

:30:04.:30:05.

the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong

:30:06.:30:07.

woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,

:30:08.:30:14.

when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,

:30:15.:30:16.

here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what

:30:17.:30:19.

are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,

:30:20.:30:21.

it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's

:30:22.:30:26.

actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership

:30:27.:30:35.

in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's

:30:36.:30:47.

the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one

:30:48.:30:52.

for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad

:30:53.:31:02.

as strong and stable, but it will probably get

:31:03.:31:04.

on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today

:31:05.:31:07.

and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my

:31:08.:31:17.

question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,

:31:18.:31:25.

we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table

:31:26.:31:27.

at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,

:31:28.:31:31.

we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control

:31:32.:31:33.

and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought

:31:34.:31:35.

he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,

:31:36.:31:40.

hovering around, skirting around and that's the second

:31:41.:31:49.

time I've seen a similar interview with the question

:31:50.:31:52.

being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have

:31:53.:31:54.

any confidence with him You think you are going up

:31:55.:31:56.

against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand

:31:57.:32:00.

up for us? When you are in negotiations,

:32:01.:32:02.

you need to be tough. And actually is right

:32:03.:32:07.

to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing

:32:08.:32:09.

something for the country. There's a reason for talking

:32:10.:32:11.

about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future

:32:12.:32:13.

of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen

:32:14.:32:15.

to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show

:32:16.:32:20.

and in the news. She attracts the public better

:32:21.:32:25.

than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question

:32:26.:32:31.

in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa

:32:32.:32:34.

May is an animal. So, in your minds,

:32:35.:32:40.

what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think

:32:41.:32:43.

she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's

:32:44.:32:57.

superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies

:32:58.:33:04.

are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak

:33:05.:33:19.

and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch

:33:20.:33:23.

you by surprise if you're What do you take away

:33:24.:33:25.

from what you saw then, and what message would you send back

:33:26.:33:33.

to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see

:33:34.:33:36.

Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,

:33:37.:33:39.

but you don't need to be liked to be elected,

:33:40.:33:42.

because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future

:33:43.:33:44.

and your security. I think what I also take out

:33:45.:33:46.

of that focus group, was it was a group of floating

:33:47.:33:49.

voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no

:33:50.:33:52.

huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ

:33:53.:33:55.

would be stick to the plan. I thought the response

:33:56.:33:58.

to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't

:33:59.:34:01.

particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her

:34:02.:34:03.

about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party

:34:04.:34:08.

want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks

:34:09.:34:12.

that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:13.:34:13.

what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise

:34:14.:34:20.

the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform

:34:21.:34:22.

out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those

:34:23.:34:28.

characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be

:34:29.:34:31.

over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact

:34:32.:34:33.

that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go

:34:34.:34:36.

into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American

:34:37.:34:38.

political consultant For the sake of this discussion,

:34:39.:34:46.

assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for

:34:47.:34:53.

Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious

:34:54.:34:59.

collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether

:35:00.:35:02.

you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where

:35:03.:35:07.

they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to

:35:08.:35:11.

watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more

:35:12.:35:16.

substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality

:35:17.:35:20.

and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because

:35:21.:35:25.

Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see

:35:26.:35:35.

on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language

:35:36.:35:42.

she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't

:35:43.:35:46.

see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her

:35:47.:35:51.

campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy

:35:52.:35:56.

because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary

:35:57.:36:01.

Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,

:36:02.:36:06.

the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I

:36:07.:36:12.

was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC

:36:13.:36:20.

had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can

:36:21.:36:24.

assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had

:36:25.:36:30.

but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other

:36:31.:36:37.

than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you

:36:38.:36:42.

will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour

:36:43.:36:47.

will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of

:36:48.:36:51.

number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of

:36:52.:36:55.

soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable

:36:56.:37:00.

majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British

:37:01.:37:03.

people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will

:37:04.:37:09.

have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice

:37:10.:37:14.

of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British

:37:15.:37:19.

politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there

:37:20.:37:23.

is still a significant percentage of the British population that once

:37:24.:37:27.

someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.

:37:28.:37:36.

I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and

:37:37.:37:39.

I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a

:37:40.:37:42.

population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.

:37:43.:37:48.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:49.:37:50.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:51.:37:53.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:37:54.:38:03.

Coming up in the North West: Is the bubble about to burst

:38:04.:38:08.

Ukip polled more than 5000 votes in both Blackpool seats two years

:38:09.:38:19.

ago but is the party's purple patch now over?

:38:20.:38:23.

Well, they might like to be beside the seaside, but this

:38:24.:38:26.

week's guests are stuck in the studio with me.

:38:27.:38:28.

Julie Cooper is the Labour candidate for Burnley,

:38:29.:38:30.

Mark Menzies the Conservative contesting Fylde and John Bickley

:38:31.:38:33.

is standing for Ukip in Eddisbury in Cheshire.

:38:34.:38:38.

So, trusts in all of your patches - Blackpool, East Lancashire

:38:39.:38:40.

and Cheshire and Wirral - were affected by this

:38:41.:38:43.

Another NHS crisis that could have been prevented by better funding?

:38:44.:38:51.

This is a crisis that has affected 150 countries around the world, some

:38:52.:38:58.

of the biggest companies, FedEx, Nissan, this is the act of

:38:59.:39:03.

terrorists and extortionists. The government setting up the national

:39:04.:39:06.

cyber Security Centre anticipated attacks like this and put money into

:39:07.:39:10.

it but what we need to do is ensure we cannot be complacent and we need

:39:11.:39:13.

to be vigilant because there are people out there who want to disrupt

:39:14.:39:17.

our way of life and we cannot allow that to happen. Would Labour have

:39:18.:39:22.

prevented this? Labour would have taken the advice over 12 months ago.

:39:23.:39:26.

The systems need upgrading desperately. We could have avoided

:39:27.:39:30.

this chaos. It has put patients record and treatment at risk. What

:39:31.:39:36.

is your take on this John Bickley? The NHS does not have enough money

:39:37.:39:40.

because Labour gave it all away. I guarantee now there will be no

:39:41.:39:43.

manager sacked over this. The managers in the public service,

:39:44.:39:52.

particularly at -- the NHS, will not be sacked, they earn over ?100,000,

:39:53.:39:59.

it's not good enough. Examples over and over again, this is the latest,

:40:00.:40:03.

this is an incident that has been waiting to happen. We were told the

:40:04.:40:07.

money for this was pulled by the government. I don't know where you

:40:08.:40:11.

got that from because ?50 million has gone into protect the NHS. The

:40:12.:40:16.

government has put in ?1.5 billion as part of this National cyber

:40:17.:40:22.

Security strategy said Gutman has anticipated, acted on and we are

:40:23.:40:26.

doing coming. We're not doing it to grab votes. -- so this and has

:40:27.:40:31.

anticipated. It is sad that the Labour Party is trying to weaponised

:40:32.:40:35.

the NHS to get votes. Is it not a shame that we are closing the gate

:40:36.:40:41.

after the horse has bolted? Promise of money tomorrow for systems in the

:40:42.:40:46.

NHS. If the system had been put in place 12 months ago when the advice

:40:47.:40:48.

was given, this could have been avoided. ?50 million from the

:40:49.:40:52.

government has gone in. Now, maths was never my strong

:40:53.:40:54.

point, and both Labour and the Lib Dems reckon

:40:55.:40:57.

the Conservative sums on school spending should have them standing

:40:58.:40:59.

in the corner in a dunce's cap. Both parties say they'll find

:41:00.:41:02.

billions more for education, which should please one local head,

:41:03.:41:04.

who's written to parents for help I've only got enough

:41:05.:41:07.

for packet of crisps. Grange Hill's notorious bully

:41:08.:41:16.

Gripper Stebson was pretty direct It didn't end well for Gripper

:41:17.:41:20.

and the head teacher at Sale High is hoping a more diplomatic approach

:41:21.:41:29.

to asking parents for money Lynne Nichol said her school,

:41:30.:41:32.

where more than foul in ten pupils receive free meals,

:41:33.:41:38.

faces a big funding gap. It's about sharing with parents

:41:39.:41:42.

and getting them engaged So, in my letter I'm not asking

:41:43.:41:47.

directly for funding. What kind of things

:41:48.:41:53.

could you contribute? Would you be able to offer

:41:54.:41:56.

a financial contribution? Would you be able to offer us

:41:57.:41:58.

support with your time? The National Audit Office says

:41:59.:42:01.

the education budget will have a ?3 billion deficit

:42:02.:42:03.

within three years and opposition parties are very keen to put

:42:04.:42:06.

problems at schools at the centre Labour this week pledged an extra

:42:07.:42:10.

?5 billion through education. Jeremy Corbyn said reversing

:42:11.:42:16.

cuts to corporation tax The Liberal Democrats reckon

:42:17.:42:18.

they can find an extra ?7 billion and will tell us where it's coming

:42:19.:42:27.

from in due course. The Conservatives say school

:42:28.:42:30.

funding is at record levels and will increase further as pupil

:42:31.:42:32.

numbers rise over What Labour and the Liberal

:42:33.:42:34.

Democrats are saying is really quite different from what the current

:42:35.:42:38.

government policy is but, as ever, You either raise taxes,

:42:39.:42:40.

Labour is talking about raising taxes significantly to pay

:42:41.:42:44.

for better public services or you reduce spending on the public

:42:45.:42:46.

service and you keep Back in the Sale, parents

:42:47.:42:51.

so they understand why the head has You want the best education

:42:52.:42:56.

for workloads and if they are asking for money then personally I don't

:42:57.:43:00.

see anything wrong with it. Isn't a bit unusual to ask parents

:43:01.:43:04.

to fund the school when we're I am disgusted by it really

:43:05.:43:08.

because we do pay our taxes for that and I would expect schools

:43:09.:43:16.

to be properly funded. But will promises to balance

:43:17.:43:19.

the books in our schools I will come to you first, Mark,

:43:20.:43:38.

thousands of teachers face the sack, in Cheshire they are talking about

:43:39.:43:42.

going back to a four day week. What is being done about that? Due had a

:43:43.:43:47.

situation under Labour where some schools were getting 50% more than

:43:48.:43:51.

others but not under that familiar in the Northwest the majority of

:43:52.:43:58.

schools will lose out stop yellow constituents will... In Cheshire,

:43:59.:44:04.

West funded in the country. I'm sorry, schools in my constituency,

:44:05.:44:09.

historically were underfunded, are getting more money. But we want more

:44:10.:44:14.

still. We can only get that if you have a strong and stable economy.

:44:15.:44:17.

The Labour Party donor how to run an economy said you can promise giving

:44:18.:44:21.

a lot of money to schools but if your economy has crashed your debt

:44:22.:44:23.

have money to spend -- be Labour have money to spend -- be Labour

:44:24.:44:27.

Party don't know how to run an economy. I'm sure headteachers would

:44:28.:44:34.

welcome the funding increase but it comes at the expense of a

:44:35.:44:37.

corporation tax, which it shrink the economy, it isn't worth it, is it?

:44:38.:44:42.

We had to invest in education and skills to make sure that every

:44:43.:44:44.

citizen, every pupil coming out of citizen, every pupil coming out of

:44:45.:44:47.

school is fully able to contribute to the economy. The vast majority of

:44:48.:44:52.

schools in my constituency are going to lose funding to the tune of ?435

:44:53.:44:59.

per child. I ask a question, how is that going to help them contribute?

:45:00.:45:03.

How will they come out of school fit to take up the employment

:45:04.:45:05.

opportunities that we are all working hard to create for them? If

:45:06.:45:11.

these improvements are going to be funded by corporation tax increases,

:45:12.:45:14.

the Robin Hood tax being talked about today, an extra fee for

:45:15.:45:19.

financial transactions in the city, if ultimately that causes companies

:45:20.:45:21.

to leave the UK, in the end it doesn't help? We already have the

:45:22.:45:28.

lowest corporation tax in the developed world. There is plenty of

:45:29.:45:32.

scope for us to raise corporation tax that will have no impact on

:45:33.:45:36.

business. We can raise it to a level that will bring millions into the

:45:37.:45:41.

education system and still will not impact adversely on the economy.

:45:42.:45:49.

Heritage is making it up, is she? I don't think she is making it up full

:45:50.:45:53.

stop -- the headteacher is not making it up, is she? But we have

:45:54.:45:59.

put in record sums of money in our government. Record sums of money,

:46:00.:46:05.

the National funding from Europe, in the past there was no such thing.

:46:06.:46:09.

The ridiculous situation -- the national funding formula. The

:46:10.:46:13.

ridiculous situation in the past where it was unfair. I am happy for

:46:14.:46:19.

the money coming up north from London. All you get from the Labour

:46:20.:46:26.

increased taxes. In our manifesto, increased taxes. In our manifesto,

:46:27.:46:30.

we will demonstrate that by leaving the EU and saving ?10 billion a year

:46:31.:46:36.

by stop giving ?12 billion away in foreign aid, we can use that money,

:46:37.:46:40.

charity begins at home. But that money has been promised for

:46:41.:46:46.

everything, the NHS, education... Sample social care but somebody

:46:47.:46:50.

education system. -- some for social care. We can stop the overcrowding

:46:51.:46:58.

but we need to put priorities right and put British people first. Stop

:46:59.:47:02.

throwing money away and is adapting the easy thing to do is put up

:47:03.:47:06.

taxes, how about we stop trying to spend so much money? If I don't earn

:47:07.:47:09.

enough money, I have to stop spending and... Putting British

:47:10.:47:15.

people first on education, John Bickley says. But we have

:47:16.:47:17.

commitments to help people are commitments to help people are

:47:18.:47:20.

people in the world. Like North Korea? We don't give money to them.

:47:21.:47:28.

This is all Ukip stuff. You can open their mouth and rubbish comes out.

:47:29.:47:33.

It is a good job that when we are dealing with helping some of the

:47:34.:47:35.

poorest people in the world, the victims of Syria, this government

:47:36.:47:40.

has a proud record on that. When you talk about your policies for

:47:41.:47:43.

education you want more grammar schools. Would that not take money

:47:44.:47:48.

away from the contented school struggling? Not necessarily. It

:47:49.:47:55.

would. When I grew up on every council estate there was a grammar

:47:56.:47:58.

school. Those schools were there to help working class kids. Both of

:47:59.:48:02.

your governments took the opportunity away from working class

:48:03.:48:05.

kids. It used to be there for them and we want to get it back again so

:48:06.:48:09.

on council states around this country there will be a grammar

:48:10.:48:13.

school. So for every grammar school there will be five secondary moderns

:48:14.:48:15.

and that's what you are advocating that is the mass of it. This is a

:48:16.:48:23.

red herring. We need properly funded schools. Headteachers and teachers

:48:24.:48:27.

are saying that we cannot do the job that we are trained to do. Our

:48:28.:48:30.

children are suffering. We can't maximise their potential. The

:48:31.:48:35.

business of the funding formula, there is nothing fair about a

:48:36.:48:38.

funding formula that takes out of every child's School in my

:48:39.:48:42.

constituency, one of the most deprived constituencies. But there

:48:43.:48:51.

has been underfunding everywhere... But instead of a levelling down, I

:48:52.:48:56.

don't want to take away from the education of any child. Should not

:48:57.:49:02.

did the that if we are serious about growing our economy, it starts in

:49:03.:49:05.

the schools, it starts in the nursery schools and primary schools

:49:06.:49:07.

and through the secondary schools. Two years ago John Bickley's Ukip

:49:08.:49:09.

contested more than 95% of seats But this time around they're

:49:10.:49:12.

standing in less than half the 72 in our region,

:49:13.:49:15.

including none in Liverpool. And in last week's local elections,

:49:16.:49:17.

the party's share of the vote was less than half what it

:49:18.:49:20.

polled in 2015. So where will those Ukip voters

:49:21.:49:24.

put their cross on June the 8th? More people in Blackpool

:49:25.:49:28.

voted Leave than anywhere else in the North West

:49:29.:49:42.

- nearly 70%. The town, then, should be a snapshot

:49:43.:49:44.

of perfect Ukip territory. Two years ago, one

:49:45.:49:47.

of their candidates here, Are you seriously saying that Ukip

:49:48.:49:49.

can win Blackpool South? Now the political outlook has

:49:50.:49:54.

shifted and so has he. What's changed in

:49:55.:49:59.

the last two years? I think when I was asked to stand

:50:00.:50:01.

as a candidate this time I realised that it's not about me,

:50:02.:50:04.

it's about the people of Blackpool The only way that change

:50:05.:50:07.

is going to come about is by people voting Conservative,

:50:08.:50:12.

as they have a real Peter's also worried about some

:50:13.:50:14.

of the party's policies. Do you fear for Ukip

:50:15.:50:19.

with the way things are going? I think they run the risk

:50:20.:50:24.

of being wiped out in this election. The concern as well is I can't

:50:25.:50:27.

describe some of the policies that It's almost going back

:50:28.:50:30.

to Neanderthal times. But Ukippers preparing

:50:31.:50:36.

their campaign in Blackpool are convinced that their balloon

:50:37.:50:44.

hasn't been popped. Now that Brexit is happening,

:50:45.:50:46.

there's not as much point to Ukip. Well, no, there's every point

:50:47.:50:48.

to Ukip because the job The job is only half done

:50:49.:50:51.

because we haven't actually left anything and we're still actually

:50:52.:50:56.

paying ?350 million Have you got a realistic chance

:50:57.:50:58.

inside of the seats to using? I wouldn't like to bet on it quite

:50:59.:51:08.

frankly but nevertheless we'll have a good go and every vote

:51:09.:51:11.

for Ukip is a message Blackpool has two seats,

:51:12.:51:14.

on this side of the North Pier it's the Conservatives in charge

:51:15.:51:23.

but if you head over here to the south, down

:51:24.:51:25.

past the tower there, Ukip polled well in both

:51:26.:51:28.

constituencies last time around with more than 5000 votes in each,

:51:29.:51:31.

so what now happens to those voters will go a long way to deciding

:51:32.:51:34.

the outcome in this town. You wouldn't consider Ukip,

:51:35.:51:38.

even with a top that colour? Ukip if there was a proper option

:51:39.:51:42.

but it's obvious they're not going to get in because everybody's

:51:43.:51:44.

switching to the Conservatives. I think they've done

:51:45.:51:47.

what they set out to do. Because I believe in Labour,

:51:48.:51:57.

that's why, I think At the moment, the Ukip vote

:51:58.:52:05.

is breaking three to one That could make a difference in some

:52:06.:52:09.

of our key marginals, particularly in the Lancashire area

:52:10.:52:13.

where, frankly, Ukip's vote transparent over

:52:14.:52:15.

to the Conservatives puts Thank you so much

:52:16.:52:17.

for supporting Ukip. Ukip does still have it supporters

:52:18.:52:21.

but are there enough of them to keep the party relevant in this

:52:22.:52:27.

changing political landscape? So, John Bickley, Neanderthal

:52:28.:52:43.

policies, time gone, is that the reality? No, we want to deliver

:52:44.:52:47.

Brexit, we want to put the country before the party and we recognise

:52:48.:52:50.

that the Conservatives are likely to be the government on June eight. We

:52:51.:52:54.

know the Tory government mugged the British people when they took them

:52:55.:52:59.

into the EU under false fences. Theresa May is telling us she will

:53:00.:53:03.

deliver Brexit. She will get a large mandate to do that. Many Ukip people

:53:04.:53:09.

will support her. We hope some Ukip MPs will be in Parliament. Not why

:53:10.:53:14.

not support you to be in government to put it through? We are living in

:53:15.:53:17.

the real world. It is obvious that this moment in time the Tories will

:53:18.:53:22.

get elected in June. They are telling the British people they will

:53:23.:53:26.

deliver Brexit so what Mark could do to prove that, will you guarantee on

:53:27.:53:31.

this show that we will get 100% control of our fishing back, 100%

:53:32.:53:35.

control of our wars and punched percent control of immigration and

:53:36.:53:42.

trade? Here is somebody who doesn't know how to negotiate. You don't go

:53:43.:53:45.

into a beginning of a negotiation saying what you are going to get and

:53:46.:53:48.

what you are not going to get. This is why you cannot trust Ukip. They

:53:49.:53:53.

are a spent force, a one trick pony. What I have got in my part of the

:53:54.:54:00.

world is decent people who voted for Ukip who realise they cannot vote

:54:01.:54:04.

for Ukip again because what they want is a strong Prime Minister who

:54:05.:54:07.

will deliver Brexit but they also looked at a Labour Party that is

:54:08.:54:11.

committed to defence jobs being destroyed across Lancashire with a

:54:12.:54:15.

ban on arms sales and Theresa May is the only person they can put their

:54:16.:54:19.

vote into. Decent people are rejecting Ukip. Conservative vote is

:54:20.:54:26.

going to the Tories but in Bury North, a tight marginal

:54:27.:54:29.

constituency, you are actively telling people to vote Conservative

:54:30.:54:32.

and you are not standing. When you ask the Tory party to confirm to the

:54:33.:54:36.

British people that when we leave the EU we will get back control of

:54:37.:54:39.

the sovereign item such as fishing, you avoid it. I have not avoided

:54:40.:54:48.

of immigration back? You know fine of immigration back? You know fine

:54:49.:54:56.

well we will. You know fine well... It is better than on the record, it

:54:57.:55:03.

is on telly. You know the Conservative Party's position is to

:55:04.:55:07.

get control of immigration and fishing. 100% control of immigration

:55:08.:55:13.

and lawmaking? Ukip does not understand the art of negotiation.

:55:14.:55:19.

That is why we need Theresa May. Let's bring julienne. You would hope

:55:20.:55:25.

that the predicted demise of Ukip would lead to some of your former

:55:26.:55:31.

supporters coming back but if they are due to vote for the

:55:32.:55:33.

Conservatives this is a disaster for Labour isn't it? This is complex.

:55:34.:55:39.

Where the original support of Ukip came from is a mixture. I

:55:40.:55:40.

on doorsteps that some of the on doorsteps that some of the

:55:41.:55:44.

support came from Labour voters, conversations I had yesterday where

:55:45.:55:49.

people said I voted Ukip last time because I wanted to come out of the

:55:50.:55:54.

EU. The job has been done, now I am going back to Labour. We have other

:55:55.:55:57.

people who will go back to being Conservatives. People feel this is a

:55:58.:56:04.

election on Brexit, as Theresa May wants to make it. People don't have

:56:05.:56:07.

confidence that Jeremy Corbyn would confidence that Jeremy Corbyn would

:56:08.:56:11.

definitely take us out of Europe. What I am finding is that people in

:56:12.:56:15.

Burnley are saying, and I have not on hundreds of doorsteps, and people

:56:16.:56:21.

are saying that Brexit is behind us and you supported our position, we

:56:22.:56:28.

are out of it. Is it behind us now? The result was decisive, we accept

:56:29.:56:31.

that. People across the country and that. People across the country and

:56:32.:56:38.

especially in my constituency, it's important we get the right deal

:56:39.:56:42.

going forward and you cannot trust the Tories. Can you trust the Tories

:56:43.:56:49.

on the promise to reduce the immigration to tens of thousands.

:56:50.:56:53.

supporters with this? No, because we supporters with this? No, because we

:56:54.:56:57.

have decent Ukip people who are looking at Theresa May as a strong

:56:58.:57:01.

Prime Minister who will stand up to the EU 27 and get a good deal for

:57:02.:57:05.

Britain. We are told it could be bad for the economy, you felt to do it

:57:06.:57:10.

after promising into macro elections. Wannabe huge differences

:57:11.:57:15.

is after Brexit you can control your that is one of the fundamental

:57:16.:57:18.

differences and Prime Minister Theresa May has been clear that we

:57:19.:57:24.

will have control of borders and she will negotiate get a good deal and I

:57:25.:57:27.

would ask you, who do you think will get a better deal for Britain,

:57:28.:57:30.

Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May? I think people out there, though the

:57:31.:57:32.

answer to that question. Julie, as well as the leaked

:57:33.:57:35.

manifesto, there were some more local issues for

:57:36.:57:38.

the Labour Party this week. Steve Rotheram won't stand

:57:39.:57:40.

again in Liverpool Walton after he was installed as mayor

:57:41.:57:43.

for the Liverpool City Region, He said he wanted his

:57:44.:57:46.

successor chosen locally. But the Mayor of the city

:57:47.:57:51.

of Liverpool, Joe Anderson here, He was passed over for Dan Carden

:57:52.:57:54.

an aide to the Unite Union's General Local members said they'd resign

:57:55.:58:00.

and Joe Anderson responded by stating that "today

:58:01.:58:05.

we are reminded that the Labour So, Julie, we know the public don't

:58:06.:58:23.

like divided parties. Why parachute someone in like this? You will

:58:24.:58:27.

understand that I have not been able to give a lot of time to worrying

:58:28.:58:31.

about the selection of candidates in Liverpool. I have been busy running

:58:32.:58:34.

my own election campaign. What I would say is that as we go into this

:58:35.:58:38.

general election, as we left rest minster ready to fight for a Labour

:58:39.:58:44.

government, we could not have been more united. -- as we left

:58:45.:58:53.

Westminster. People from all corners of the party visit my constituency

:58:54.:58:57.

to help pull the campaign and that is because... I had Jeremy Corbyn in

:58:58.:59:12.

my constituency supporting me. You are one of the only few who does.

:59:13.:59:17.

Labour Party was not united. Hundreds 70 of your colleagues did

:59:18.:59:23.

not want Jeremy Corbyn made them. -- 170 of York colleagues did not want

:59:24.:59:30.

Jeremy Corbyn near them. Aaron Banks saying he is a dead man walking

:59:31.:59:35.

ahead of this election. He is not the party's biggest donor, he has

:59:36.:59:39.

not given us any money of any substance for a long time now. Paul

:59:40.:59:42.

Nuttall said he wanted to target Labour voters in the Northwest.

:59:43.:59:45.

We're this election has changed everything. Let's be truthful. On

:59:46.:59:53.

June eight we are going to get a Tory government with a large wedge

:59:54.:59:57.

oratory. In some respects we are not happy about that, we would like more

:59:58.:00:05.

Ukip MPs -- with a large majority. Quick word on the reality, are you

:00:06.:00:09.

getting cocky in the Conservative Party? Theresa May bringing up fox

:00:10.:00:16.

hunting, unnecessary and divisive. We are not getting cocky, which is

:00:17.:00:20.

why we are going to areas that have never voted Conservative in a

:00:21.:00:24.

generation. We are taking every vote that is out there to be won. We are

:00:25.:00:27.

speaking to every electorate as an individual. We are not going to

:00:28.:00:31.

unite and asking, who do we want as candidate. We're not going to Len

:00:32.:00:35.

McCluskey to write a manifesto for us. These are the priorities of the

:00:36.:00:42.

real Conservative Party, that's what we can expect is Theresa May

:00:43.:00:43.

increases her mandate. Thanks to Julie Cooper,

:00:44.:00:45.

Mark Menzies and John Bickley. Graham Brady and Lucy Powell will be

:00:46.:00:48.

among next week's guests. And we'll have candidates

:00:49.:00:51.

from the Liberal Democrats, Greens and other parties over

:00:52.:00:53.

the next few weeks as well. Tories are saying. It is a very

:00:54.:00:57.

emotive subject and we have run out of time.

:00:58.:01:04.

On Thursday nominations closed in the 650 parliamentary

:01:05.:01:09.

seats across the country, so now we know exactly who's

:01:10.:01:11.

We've been analysing the parties' candidates to find out

:01:12.:01:18.

what they might tell us about the make-up of the House

:01:19.:01:21.

Well, we know Theresa May is committed to delivering Brexit and

:01:22.:01:25.

analysis of Conservative candidates has shown that

:01:26.:01:30.

in their top 100 target seats, 37 candidates supported leave

:01:31.:01:33.

during last year's referendum campaign

:01:34.:01:41.

and 20 supported remain; 43 have not made public

:01:42.:01:43.

In the last parliament, the vast majority of Labour MPs

:01:44.:01:49.

were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how supportive are Labour

:01:50.:01:51.

Well, of 50 of Labour's top 100 target seats

:01:52.:01:58.

17 candidates have expressed support for Mr Corbyn.

:01:59.:02:00.

20 candidates supported Owen Smith in last year's leadership contest

:02:01.:02:05.

or have expressed anti-Corbyn sentiment, and

:02:06.:02:09.

If they won those, the Labour benches would be

:02:10.:02:15.

marginally more sympathetic to Mr Corbyn than they are now.

:02:16.:02:17.

What do the figures tell us about where the other

:02:18.:02:19.

Well, the Lib Dems have decided not to stand against the Greens

:02:20.:02:23.

in Brighton Pavilion, and are fielding 629

:02:24.:02:25.

candidates this year - that's two fewer than 2015.

:02:26.:02:28.

The number of Ukip candidates has fallen dramatically.

:02:29.:02:32.

They are standing in 247 fewer constituencies than 2015,

:02:33.:02:38.

throwing their support behind solidly pro-Brexit Tories

:02:39.:02:40.

in some areas such as Lewes and Norfolk North.

:02:41.:02:44.

The Greens are fielding 103 fewer candidates

:02:45.:02:48.

than at the last election, standing down to help

:02:49.:02:59.

other progressive candidates in some places.

:03:00.:03:05.

The most liking statistic is the demise in Ukip candidates, is this

:03:06.:03:18.

their swansong? And I think so. It is remarkable how few Ukip

:03:19.:03:24.

candidates are standing. It is hard to see they will suddenly revive in

:03:25.:03:28.

the next couple of years. I think this is probably the end. Frank

:03:29.:03:38.

Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of the left was a feature of this

:03:39.:03:42.

election, but also there is the consolidation of the right, and if

:03:43.:03:45.

you take the things together that could explain why the polls are

:03:46.:03:50.

where they are. Absolutely, that's precisely what happened at the start

:03:51.:03:55.

of the 1980s, the right was incredibly united and that's when we

:03:56.:04:00.

started talking about majorities of over 100 or so. No matter what the

:04:01.:04:07.

size of Theresa May's majority, it will be the total collapse of Ukip,

:04:08.:04:11.

but not just because we are now leaving the EU and that was their

:04:12.:04:17.

only reason for being, but a whole lot of people voted for Ukip because

:04:18.:04:21.

they felt the Tories were no longer listening. Theresa May has given the

:04:22.:04:29.

impression that she is listening, and that is the biggest possible

:04:30.:04:32.

thing that could happen to the Tory vote. Fragmentation of the left,

:04:33.:04:40.

consolidation of the right? It's one of the lessons that is never learnt,

:04:41.:04:47.

it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't take much for the whole thing to

:04:48.:04:51.

fracture so now you have on the centre-left the SNP, the Labour

:04:52.:04:57.

Party, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats all competing for the same

:04:58.:05:02.

votes and when you have, fleetingly perhaps, large numbers coalescing on

:05:03.:05:06.

the right in one party, there is only going to be one outcome. It

:05:07.:05:12.

happens regularly. It doesn't mean the Tories haven't got their own

:05:13.:05:17.

fragility. Two years ago, David Cameron and George Osborne the

:05:18.:05:21.

dominant figures, neither are in Parliament now which is a symptom of

:05:22.:05:25.

the fragility this election is disguising. Mrs May's position in a

:05:26.:05:31.

way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on

:05:32.:05:36.

the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in France, I won't be outflanked on the

:05:37.:05:40.

right, so the National Front didn't get through either timed he ran to

:05:41.:05:43.

the second round on like this time, and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be

:05:44.:05:50.

outflanked Iver and as a result has seen off right flank. And also she

:05:51.:05:54.

is looking to the left as well with some of the state interventions.

:05:55.:05:58.

What was interesting about the analysis you showed a few minutes

:05:59.:06:01.

ago was the number of Tory candidates who have apparently not

:06:02.:06:06.

declared which way they voted in the referendum, and you would have

:06:07.:06:10.

thought if this election was all about Brexit, as some would claim,

:06:11.:06:14.

that would become an unsustainable position, and actually more it's

:06:15.:06:19.

about leadership. But the point that I'm now hearing from a number of

:06:20.:06:24.

Labour candidates that they are seeing Tory leaflets that don't even

:06:25.:06:30.

have the Tory candidate's name on them, it is just about Theresa May.

:06:31.:06:35.

I am glad they are keeping to the law because by law they have to put

:06:36.:06:40.

it on. It has been harder for some of the smaller parties too because

:06:41.:06:46.

of the speed of the election being called. We have the manifesto is

:06:47.:06:52.

coming out this week. I think Labour Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet

:06:53.:06:56.

sure when the Tories will bring bears out. I suggest one thing, it

:06:57.:07:00.

will at least for people like me bring an end to the question you

:07:01.:07:08.

will have to wait for the manifesto. And Rebecca Long baby will never

:07:09.:07:11.

have that excuse again, isn't it wonderful! She is not the only one.

:07:12.:07:21.

When you are trying to take the north and Midlands from Labour, I

:07:22.:07:27.

would go to one or the other. For me, I can barely hold back my

:07:28.:07:32.

excitement over the Tory manifesto. This will be, I think, the most

:07:33.:07:35.

important day for the British government for the next five years.

:07:36.:07:44.

That wasn't irony there? You actually meant that? I'm not even

:07:45.:07:49.

being cynical at all on Sunday Politics! This is a huge day and

:07:50.:07:56.

it's because I think we will see... I don't think Mrs May will play it

:07:57.:08:01.

safe and I don't think we will get the broadbrush stuff that she might

:08:02.:08:06.

be advised to do. I think she will lay out precisely what you want to

:08:07.:08:10.

do over the next five years and take some big risks. Then finally after a

:08:11.:08:15.

year of this guessing and theorising, we will finally work out

:08:16.:08:19.

what Mrs May is all about. She will say she doesn't want the next

:08:20.:08:22.

parliament to be all about Brexit, though she knows that's the next

:08:23.:08:26.

important thing she has to deliver in some way, so she gets a mandate

:08:27.:08:30.

for that if the polls are right but she

:08:31.:08:41.

does have very different ideas from Mr Cameron about how to run a

:08:42.:08:46.

country. She will I assume one to mandate for what these different

:08:47.:08:47.

ideas are. Otherwise there is no point in holding an early election.

:08:48.:08:50.

You will get a majority, but if you get a mandate to carry on

:08:51.:08:54.

implementing the Cameron and Osborne manifesto it would be utterly

:08:55.:08:57.

pointless. I agree, it is the pivotal event of the election and it

:08:58.:09:00.

will be interesting to see the degree to which she expands on the

:09:01.:09:04.

line which interests me about its time to look at the good that

:09:05.:09:09.

government can do. Because in a way this moves the debate on in UK

:09:10.:09:16.

politics from, from 97 the Blair Brown governments were insecure

:09:17.:09:19.

about arguing about the role of government. Cameron Osborne

:09:20.:09:24.

government similarly so, so here you have a Labour Party talking about

:09:25.:09:28.

the role of government and the state, and Tory leader apparently

:09:29.:09:32.

doing so was well. I think that will be really interesting to see whether

:09:33.:09:36.

it is fleshed out in any significant way. And it is not a natural Tory

:09:37.:09:41.

message. Harold Macmillan talked about the role of the state, Ted

:09:42.:09:49.

Heath Mark two was pretty big on the state, the industrial policy and so

:09:50.:09:54.

on, and even if it is not thought to be that Tory, does she get away with

:09:55.:09:58.

it because she deliver such a big victory if that's what she does

:09:59.:10:03.

deliver? Just inject a little note of scepticism, I wonder how much of

:10:04.:10:09.

this is authentically Theresa May. I was interested to and talk to

:10:10.:10:17.

someone who used to sit in cabinet meetings during which Theresa May

:10:18.:10:20.

never expressed an opinion on anything outside the Home Office

:10:21.:10:23.

briefs. Other ministers were roving all over their colleagues' briefs.

:10:24.:10:32.

So where are the ideas coming from? I think we can point to Nick

:10:33.:10:39.

Timothy. One of her closest advisers in Downing Street. It will be

:10:40.:10:44.

interesting to see how that evolves. On Thursday I think we will all be

:10:45.:10:50.

talking about something called Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the

:10:51.:11:00.

suburb of Birmingham where Nick Timothy comes from, who is very much

:11:01.:11:05.

Theresa May's policy brain and leading inspiration. Urdington

:11:06.:11:10.

Toryism is about connecting the party with traditional working class

:11:11.:11:15.

voters, and their belief to do that is not just taking away government

:11:16.:11:19.

out of their lives but showing them that government can actually help

:11:20.:11:23.

their lives. It can be a force for good to rebuild the trust. A lot of

:11:24.:11:35.

what Mrs May talks about is all... It is talk and then a lot of it

:11:36.:11:39.

suddenly goes by the wayside. What happened to worker directors on the

:11:40.:11:48.

boards. It is designed to appeal to that constituency and then nothing

:11:49.:11:52.

happens. She had an excuse before in the sense that it wasn't in the 2015

:11:53.:11:57.

manifesto and she had a small majority so therefore she arguably

:11:58.:12:00.

had to water down some of the stuff for example in her Tory conference

:12:01.:12:06.

speech, which had a lot of this active government material in it. If

:12:07.:12:10.

she puts it in the manifesto, it is a sign she plans to do it and will

:12:11.:12:15.

have no excuse if she then gets nervous afterwards because it will

:12:16.:12:19.

be in there. If it wasn't for Brexit, this great overwhelming

:12:20.:12:24.

issue, I think this election will be seen as quite a significant

:12:25.:12:27.

development in terms of an argument around the role of government,

:12:28.:12:32.

much-needed. But Brexit unfortunately overshadows it all. As

:12:33.:12:37.

much as we like our arguments over the role of government we will hear

:12:38.:12:41.

strong and stable, stable and strong ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely,

:12:42.:12:49.

and we heard the same old lines from the Labour Party as well so they are

:12:50.:12:55.

all at it. It will be a fascinating week, stop talking it down! Thanks

:12:56.:12:58.

to our panel. The Daily Politics will be

:12:59.:13:01.

back on BBC Two at noon I'll be back here at the same time

:13:02.:13:03.

on BBC One next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,

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it's the Sunday Politics. When it came to my TV habits,

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I'd watch anything... But now I can sign in online

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and get more of what I love. I'm kept up to date

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with the shows I love and I get suggestions

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on subjects I'll like. A new personalised BBC

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is on its way. To tailor the benefits to you,

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sign in and introduce yourself.

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Andrew Neil is joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and Home Office minister Brandon Lewis to discuss the party manifestos for the forthcoming general election. Plus American political pollster Frank Luntz, and a chat with undecided voters in Leeds. Journalists Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards review the papers.