Browse content similar to 01/05/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello and welcome to the last Sunday Politics before polling day. | 3:03:05 | 3:03:08 | |
It's the vital last push for the campaigns. | 3:03:08 | 3:03:11 | |
And in the studio, as we enter the final days, we've brought | 3:03:11 | 3:03:13 | |
together senior figures from the five main parties, | 3:03:13 | 3:03:16 | |
making their pitch for your vote. | 3:03:16 | 3:03:19 | |
Whatever the result here, the process of forming a government | 3:03:19 | 3:03:21 | |
won't be as tortuous as it's been in Dublin - | 3:03:21 | 3:03:24 | |
but there's now an unprecedented Fine Gael-Fianna Fail deal. | 3:03:24 | 3:03:27 | |
And we'll be live there with the latest | 3:03:27 | 3:03:29 | |
a little later in the programme. | 3:03:29 | 3:03:31 | |
And with their thoughts ahead of a huge week | 3:03:31 | 3:03:33 | |
in Northern Ireland politics, my guests of the day are | 3:03:33 | 3:03:35 | |
Professors Deirdre Heenan and Rick Wilford. | 3:03:35 | 3:03:37 | |
So let's get into the main discussion | 3:03:43 | 3:03:45 | |
with my studio guests straight away. | 3:03:45 | 3:03:47 | |
With me are the DUP's Nigel Dodds, Mairtin O Muilleoir from Sinn Fein, | 3:03:47 | 3:03:52 | |
the SDLP's Claire Hanna, Ulster Unionist Danny Kennedy | 3:03:52 | 3:03:56 | |
and The Alliance Party's Stephen Farry. | 3:03:56 | 3:03:59 | |
You're all very welcome to the programme. | 3:03:59 | 3:04:01 | |
Thank you for making time to be with us. | 3:04:01 | 3:04:03 | |
Nigel Dodds, manifesto commitments on the part of Sinn Fein | 3:04:03 | 3:04:09 | |
and the DUP seem to suggest a bit of a sham fight as far as this | 3:04:09 | 3:04:12 | |
notion of Arlene for First Minister is concerned, | 3:04:12 | 3:04:15 | |
because on the one hand, you don't want Martin McGuinness | 3:04:15 | 3:04:18 | |
to be First Minister, but on the other hand | 3:04:18 | 3:04:20 | |
it looks like there's some kind of DUP-Sinn Fein | 3:04:20 | 3:04:23 | |
grand plan for the next five years. | 3:04:23 | 3:04:25 | |
Well, I think, as Arlene put it the other day, it's one thing | 3:04:25 | 3:04:28 | |
trying to persuade undecided voters, | 3:04:28 | 3:04:29 | |
but we're delighted when our politic opponents | 3:04:29 | 3:04:31 | |
actually adopt some of our policies. | 3:04:31 | 3:04:33 | |
Simon Hamilton, back at our party conference, first mentioned | 3:04:33 | 3:04:36 | |
the issue of spending an extra £1 billion | 3:04:36 | 3:04:39 | |
by the end of 2021 on health, | 3:04:39 | 3:04:42 | |
so this was something that we have been talking about for some time. | 3:04:42 | 3:04:45 | |
And an extra 50,000 new jobs and new social housing. | 3:04:45 | 3:04:48 | |
And I think these... | 3:04:48 | 3:04:49 | |
It starts to look like you've had a discussion in the corridor. | 3:04:49 | 3:04:52 | |
What we're doing in this very, very comprehensive manifesto, | 3:04:52 | 3:04:55 | |
and you have put out a number of issues, | 3:04:55 | 3:04:57 | |
but what we're putting forward in this is a very comprehensive list | 3:04:57 | 3:05:01 | |
of policies and objectives covering health, education, infrastructure, | 3:05:01 | 3:05:05 | |
jobs and keeping household taxes down. | 3:05:05 | 3:05:08 | |
But the only way people are going to get that plan implemented | 3:05:08 | 3:05:11 | |
is to vote for DUP candidates, | 3:05:11 | 3:05:13 | |
making sure that we have a large number of members | 3:05:13 | 3:05:15 | |
of the Assembly, the majority on the Executive | 3:05:15 | 3:05:18 | |
and that Arlene remains as First Minister. | 3:05:18 | 3:05:20 | |
And they also know, the DUP voters also know, that the way | 3:05:20 | 3:05:23 | |
those promises will be implemented is by voting for DUP candidates | 3:05:23 | 3:05:27 | |
who will then be sitting at the head of the Executive, | 3:05:27 | 3:05:29 | |
alongside Sinn Fein, implementing those agreed policies. | 3:05:29 | 3:05:32 | |
That's the point. | 3:05:32 | 3:05:33 | |
We are very committed to moving Northern Ireland forward. | 3:05:33 | 3:05:35 | |
If we want a better future for Northern Ireland, it has to be | 3:05:35 | 3:05:38 | |
under the strong leadership of Arlene Foster. | 3:05:38 | 3:05:40 | |
We need to ensure that we have a plan going forward, | 3:05:40 | 3:05:43 | |
and we have a five-point plan. | 3:05:43 | 3:05:44 | |
But we want to see Northern Ireland stable and secure. | 3:05:44 | 3:05:46 | |
Of course we want to work in partnership | 3:05:46 | 3:05:48 | |
with all parties around this table. | 3:05:48 | 3:05:50 | |
Some parties don't know whether they're coming or going or whether they're in or out. | 3:05:50 | 3:05:53 | |
We're determined to move Northern Ireland forward and | 3:05:53 | 3:05:56 | |
we'll work for the best interests of all the people of Northern Ireland. | 3:05:56 | 3:05:59 | |
But to ensure that there's strong leadership and a better future, | 3:05:59 | 3:06:02 | |
people have got to get out there and vote for Arlene for First Minister, | 3:06:02 | 3:06:05 | |
they've got to ensure there is a good representation of DUP ministers | 3:06:05 | 3:06:08 | |
to ensure our five-point plan is implemented. | 3:06:08 | 3:06:10 | |
And that is absolutely vital. | 3:06:10 | 3:06:11 | |
Let me ask you a question, Mairtin, if you don't mind. | 3:06:11 | 3:06:13 | |
The question is simply this - that sounds very much to me | 3:06:13 | 3:06:16 | |
like there is an agreed strategy for what happens on the 6th of May, | 3:06:16 | 3:06:20 | |
and in fact Arlene Foster on The View on Thursday night | 3:06:20 | 3:06:23 | |
more or less accused Sinn Fein of copying and pasting key elements | 3:06:23 | 3:06:27 | |
of the DUP manifesto. | 3:06:27 | 3:06:29 | |
What I wanted to say was this - when I'm at the doorsteps, people say, | 3:06:29 | 3:06:32 | |
"We like to see the big parties more aligned in what they want to achieve | 3:06:32 | 3:06:35 | |
"in health and education and driving the economy forward." | 3:06:35 | 3:06:38 | |
So it's no coincidence that those key issues are the same | 3:06:38 | 3:06:41 | |
-for both of your parties? -If you'd let me finish, | 3:06:41 | 3:06:43 | |
and what I say to them in return is, | 3:06:43 | 3:06:44 | |
"We're actually going to have a different form of government now. | 3:06:44 | 3:06:47 | |
"A fresh start will mean a fresh start, will mean a fresh urgency, | 3:06:47 | 3:06:50 | |
"a coming together of the two large parties in government." | 3:06:50 | 3:06:54 | |
Cos we want to be in government. | 3:06:54 | 3:06:55 | |
That's one of the great, I suppose, differences between ourselves | 3:06:55 | 3:06:58 | |
and the putative opposition parties. | 3:06:58 | 3:07:01 | |
So the DUP manifesto was launched three weeks, maybe four weeks, | 3:07:01 | 3:07:04 | |
ahead of the Sinn Fein manifesto. | 3:07:04 | 3:07:06 | |
You saw the DUP commitment to £1 billion in extra spending | 3:07:06 | 3:07:09 | |
spending for health, the creation of 50,000 new jobs, | 3:07:09 | 3:07:12 | |
new social housing, 8,000 on the part of the DUP. | 3:07:12 | 3:07:15 | |
You then stuck in your manifesto £1 billion of extra spending | 3:07:15 | 3:07:18 | |
for health, 50,000 new jobs and 10,000 new social homes. | 3:07:18 | 3:07:22 | |
No, Sinn Fein is making pledges based on what we have stood for | 3:07:22 | 3:07:24 | |
throughout the last mandate, what we wish to see in the mandate | 3:07:24 | 3:07:27 | |
ahead and that is sorting out the health service, | 3:07:27 | 3:07:29 | |
providing the extra £1 billion needed. But also making sure... | 3:07:29 | 3:07:32 | |
But is it a draft programme for government? | 3:07:32 | 3:07:34 | |
The two manifestos, those key points of your two manifestos, | 3:07:34 | 3:07:37 | |
is that a draft programme for government? | 3:07:37 | 3:07:39 | |
It gives me hope when I look at what our priorities are, | 3:07:39 | 3:07:42 | |
to create jobs for people, when I go into the Sandy Row Enterprise Hub, | 3:07:42 | 3:07:45 | |
where they're trying to break generational unemployment, | 3:07:45 | 3:07:47 | |
when I go into the market where they're trying for the first time | 3:07:47 | 3:07:50 | |
in a generation to create work for our young people and opportunities, | 3:07:50 | 3:07:53 | |
it gives me hope that our parties are aligned on some things. | 3:07:53 | 3:07:56 | |
We want to create an extra £330 million for our universities | 3:07:56 | 3:07:59 | |
as well, because we need to have the skills to attract new jobs. | 3:07:59 | 3:08:03 | |
We need to bring the other parties in. | 3:08:03 | 3:08:05 | |
There may be differences, but there are key similarities as well. | 3:08:05 | 3:08:08 | |
Claire Hanna, let me ask you, as far as the SDLP is concerned, | 3:08:08 | 3:08:11 | |
does it look to you as if the two key parties in the Executive | 3:08:11 | 3:08:15 | |
up to now and very probably in future have got together | 3:08:15 | 3:08:18 | |
and agreed key strategies for what happens next? | 3:08:18 | 3:08:22 | |
Well, it does. There are a lot of similarities between those two documents. | 3:08:22 | 3:08:25 | |
The DUP did release theirs about a month ago. | 3:08:25 | 3:08:27 | |
Sinn Fein released a 2.5 page manifesto a week before the election | 3:08:27 | 3:08:31 | |
that presumably was distilling some of the other ideas flying about. | 3:08:31 | 3:08:35 | |
Both of them, I have to say, look like a lot of free beer tomorrow, | 3:08:35 | 3:08:38 | |
because there are few specifics. | 3:08:38 | 3:08:40 | |
And it also doesn't reflect what they've actually done for the last nine years. | 3:08:40 | 3:08:44 | |
Listen, the SDLP were taken apart | 3:08:44 | 3:08:45 | |
for not understanding the matters of its manifesto commitments. | 3:08:45 | 3:08:48 | |
So you need to be very careful about going down that road. | 3:08:48 | 3:08:51 | |
The SDLP commitments are very clear. | 3:08:51 | 3:08:52 | |
Well, they weren't to Gerry Diver last week. | 3:08:52 | 3:08:54 | |
Our manifesto is what a manifesto has always been. | 3:08:54 | 3:08:57 | |
It's a statement of your policy and aims, and our five specific | 3:08:57 | 3:09:00 | |
costed pledges were just that. | 3:09:00 | 3:09:02 | |
They were new ideas for which we have identified new money. | 3:09:02 | 3:09:05 | |
This business of saying, "We're going to put one billion into health, | 3:09:05 | 3:09:08 | |
"and six million in this," but without explaining to people | 3:09:08 | 3:09:11 | |
where it comes from, it's patronising. So I'm glad | 3:09:11 | 3:09:13 | |
-if they've done... -Can we come back on that? Cos we've explained | 3:09:13 | 3:09:16 | |
exactly where the £1 billion for health is coming from. | 3:09:16 | 3:09:18 | |
I'm glad if they've done a little bit of advance work, | 3:09:18 | 3:09:20 | |
because that hasn't been what's happening. | 3:09:20 | 3:09:22 | |
They have been bringing the Assembly up and down | 3:09:22 | 3:09:24 | |
and people have been let down by that. | 3:09:24 | 3:09:26 | |
I also must point out, hilariously, | 3:09:26 | 3:09:28 | |
the comment there about people who don't want to be in government. | 3:09:28 | 3:09:31 | |
Have you had a conversation with Mary Lou McDonald | 3:09:31 | 3:09:33 | |
or any of your colleagues in Dublin recently, | 3:09:33 | 3:09:35 | |
who ruled out going into government immediately? | 3:09:35 | 3:09:38 | |
The SDLP has tried and slogged for the last 10 and 20 years to | 3:09:38 | 3:09:42 | |
-try and make... -Does the SDLP want to be in the next government or not? | 3:09:42 | 3:09:45 | |
..to try and make government work, | 3:09:45 | 3:09:47 | |
we didn't have to be dragged into power-sharing. | 3:09:47 | 3:09:49 | |
So we're trying to make it work. | 3:09:49 | 3:09:51 | |
If we think we can make government work and better hold failing parties | 3:09:51 | 3:09:55 | |
to account, we'll do that. | 3:09:55 | 3:09:56 | |
Just as a yes or no, is it clear as to whether or not the SDLP | 3:09:56 | 3:09:59 | |
wants to be in government or opposition? | 3:09:59 | 3:10:01 | |
Of course we want to be in government and we have set out | 3:10:01 | 3:10:03 | |
specific areas that we will negotiate on. | 3:10:03 | 3:10:05 | |
But if the programme for government... | 3:10:05 | 3:10:07 | |
And it is a little bit worrying, I think it does take people | 3:10:07 | 3:10:09 | |
for granted if the programme for government is sitting bound | 3:10:09 | 3:10:12 | |
on Arlene Foster's desk already, | 3:10:12 | 3:10:14 | |
because that bypasses the democratic process. | 3:10:14 | 3:10:16 | |
All five parties are supposed to get in and negotiate that document. | 3:10:16 | 3:10:19 | |
She says it's not, of course. She denies that absolutely. | 3:10:19 | 3:10:21 | |
We need innovative, forward-thinking ideas. If we can get those into | 3:10:21 | 3:10:24 | |
the programme for government, we'll be there, and if we can't, we won't. | 3:10:24 | 3:10:27 | |
Danny Kennedy, as far as the Party is concerned, | 3:10:27 | 3:10:30 | |
does this look to you like a sham fight, the whole idea of | 3:10:30 | 3:10:32 | |
Arlene for First Minister, we mustn't have Martin McGuinness | 3:10:32 | 3:10:35 | |
as First Minister under any circumstances? | 3:10:35 | 3:10:37 | |
Is that a distraction in your eyes? | 3:10:37 | 3:10:39 | |
I think it's increasingly clear that there is a precooked programme | 3:10:40 | 3:10:45 | |
for government that has been | 3:10:45 | 3:10:47 | |
agreed in part by Sinn Fein and the DUP. | 3:10:47 | 3:10:52 | |
And I think that is seriously taking the electorate for granted, | 3:10:52 | 3:10:56 | |
and I think that is a huge mistake, because everyone knows that | 3:10:56 | 3:11:00 | |
in a mandatory coalition all of the parties will be part of | 3:11:00 | 3:11:02 | |
the negotiation who are entitled to Executive seats. | 3:11:02 | 3:11:05 | |
We don't know if the Ulster Unionist Party will be, | 3:11:05 | 3:11:07 | |
because, of course, you walked out at the end of the last mandate. | 3:11:07 | 3:11:10 | |
Is that a firm commitment on the part of the Ulster Unionists to be in government? | 3:11:10 | 3:11:13 | |
The other factor that is really interesting to us is that | 3:11:13 | 3:11:17 | |
the DUP's campaign has been centred around one person, their leader. | 3:11:17 | 3:11:22 | |
And, in fact, it's gone to the extent that my wife received | 3:11:22 | 3:11:26 | |
yesterday a letter in the post from Arlene to say | 3:11:26 | 3:11:28 | |
that if she didn't vote for the DUP candidate in my area, | 3:11:28 | 3:11:32 | |
bad things would happen. | 3:11:32 | 3:11:33 | |
-And that we could go back... -And is she going to take that advice? | 3:11:33 | 3:11:37 | |
I think that's very unlikely. | 3:11:37 | 3:11:40 | |
But the difficulty is, it's a campaign around one individual, | 3:11:40 | 3:11:46 | |
and centred primarily for purely party political interests, | 3:11:46 | 3:11:49 | |
not in the best interests of the people of Northern Ireland. | 3:11:49 | 3:11:52 | |
Maybe the DUP believes it has a leader worth trumpeting. | 3:11:52 | 3:11:55 | |
-Exactly! -Stormont needs to work for all of the people. | 3:11:55 | 3:11:59 | |
Not a shared-out, but a shared responsibility. | 3:11:59 | 3:12:02 | |
I'm going to come to Stephen in a second, but just answer my question. | 3:12:02 | 3:12:05 | |
Are you absolutely clear that the Ulster Unionist Party | 3:12:05 | 3:12:08 | |
will be in government if it has the political mandate to be in | 3:12:08 | 3:12:13 | |
government after the next election, or are you still sitting on the fence? | 3:12:13 | 3:12:16 | |
We're seeking a comprehensive mandate from the people | 3:12:16 | 3:12:19 | |
in the first part, and then we will enter the all-party negotiations | 3:12:19 | 3:12:23 | |
for the Executive places to be allocated. | 3:12:23 | 3:12:25 | |
But you had a mandate the last time and you walked out | 3:12:25 | 3:12:27 | |
over the issue of trusting Sinn Fein. | 3:12:27 | 3:12:29 | |
And we will judge it on that basis. It couldn't be clearer. | 3:12:29 | 3:12:32 | |
Couldn't be clearer? OK. Stephen, is it a sham fight? | 3:12:32 | 3:12:34 | |
I think that answer is as clear as mud. | 3:12:34 | 3:12:36 | |
First of all, we need to reflect on what all the parties | 3:12:36 | 3:12:39 | |
have been doing over the past five years. | 3:12:39 | 3:12:41 | |
Whenever we're seeing new commitments to fresh starts, etc, | 3:12:41 | 3:12:43 | |
we have to judge that based upon | 3:12:43 | 3:12:45 | |
the track records of the different parties. | 3:12:45 | 3:12:46 | |
This week we launched Northern Ireland's other waiting list crisis | 3:12:46 | 3:12:50 | |
where we identified at least ten major reforms | 3:12:50 | 3:12:52 | |
where we've either missed opportunities and things have | 3:12:52 | 3:12:54 | |
been delayed or indeed entirely left on the shelf. | 3:12:54 | 3:12:57 | |
There are important reforms where we need to move forward faster | 3:12:57 | 3:13:00 | |
in Northern Ireland. I'm very conscious that both David and I | 3:13:00 | 3:13:03 | |
have delivered in our own departments. There has been | 3:13:03 | 3:13:05 | |
delivery elsewhere in terms of the Executive, but going forward, | 3:13:05 | 3:13:08 | |
I'm seeing a lot of populism, frankly, | 3:13:08 | 3:13:09 | |
from some of my colleagues here at the table. For example, | 3:13:09 | 3:13:12 | |
this £1 billion on health - the issue on health | 3:13:12 | 3:13:14 | |
isn't just about money, it's actually about doing things | 3:13:14 | 3:13:16 | |
differently and having a sustainable model. | 3:13:16 | 3:13:18 | |
Is there not a lesson - with the greatest respect, | 3:13:18 | 3:13:21 | |
is there not a lesson in this for the Alliance Party? | 3:13:21 | 3:13:23 | |
Because you accuse these other parties of being populist - | 3:13:23 | 3:13:26 | |
they get more votes than you from the electors at election time | 3:13:26 | 3:13:28 | |
because they put forward policies that people want to vote for. | 3:13:28 | 3:13:31 | |
You continue to sit at the same level that you've sat at | 3:13:31 | 3:13:34 | |
for the last 20 or 30 years and tell people that they're | 3:13:34 | 3:13:37 | |
going to have to pay more in various payments in the next mandate. | 3:13:37 | 3:13:40 | |
I mean, maybe there is a lesson. | 3:13:40 | 3:13:42 | |
With respect, the Alliance Party vote has grown | 3:13:42 | 3:13:44 | |
election after election over the past ten years. | 3:13:44 | 3:13:46 | |
-By a small amount, yes. -Every election, we have grown. | 3:13:46 | 3:13:49 | |
We've now had an MP, we've had two ministers at the Executive table, | 3:13:49 | 3:13:52 | |
our two ministers, myself and David, we have delivered a clear programme | 3:13:52 | 3:13:56 | |
despite some very adverse circumstances | 3:13:56 | 3:13:58 | |
in terms of public finances. | 3:13:58 | 3:13:59 | |
So we've proven what we can do whenever we're given the chance. | 3:13:59 | 3:14:02 | |
And frankly we need more discussion of policy in terms of our elections | 3:14:02 | 3:14:05 | |
rather than a beauty contest or issues over which party | 3:14:05 | 3:14:08 | |
is going to be the top in terms of some symbolism. | 3:14:08 | 3:14:10 | |
This is about electing the government of Northern Ireland, | 3:14:10 | 3:14:13 | |
the people who will be deciding the issues for the next five years. | 3:14:13 | 3:14:16 | |
Hang on, I want to ask Mairtin O Muilleoir a question | 3:14:16 | 3:14:18 | |
about petition of concern. | 3:14:18 | 3:14:19 | |
We've heard a lot about the arguments about | 3:14:19 | 3:14:21 | |
who's going to be the biggest party. | 3:14:21 | 3:14:23 | |
Surely what Sinn Fein wants above anything else is to move | 3:14:23 | 3:14:25 | |
from 29 to 30 MLAs in the next mandate so you will be able to table | 3:14:25 | 3:14:29 | |
a petition of concern yourself | 3:14:29 | 3:14:31 | |
without having to get support from someone else? | 3:14:31 | 3:14:33 | |
And if that happens, potentially we're going to have two blocks, | 3:14:33 | 3:14:36 | |
Sinn Fein and the DUP, each able to petition a table of concern, | 3:14:36 | 3:14:40 | |
so each able to cancel the other out on issues | 3:14:40 | 3:14:43 | |
where you haven't made some sort of agreement. | 3:14:43 | 3:14:45 | |
Please, God, we don't have more log-jam in the time ahead. | 3:14:45 | 3:14:48 | |
But that's potentially going to be the case. | 3:14:48 | 3:14:50 | |
This is our pledge, our pledge is the fresh start, | 3:14:50 | 3:14:52 | |
our pledge is to put a greater premium on consensus than conflict. | 3:14:52 | 3:14:55 | |
I'm asking about petition of concern. | 3:14:55 | 3:14:57 | |
Yes, but if we do that, then we can't go down a road | 3:14:57 | 3:15:00 | |
of trying to use a petition of concern willy-nilly. | 3:15:00 | 3:15:03 | |
A petition of concern was introduced | 3:15:03 | 3:15:06 | |
to protect minorities in extreme cases. | 3:15:06 | 3:15:08 | |
Every party that uses the petition of concern | 3:15:08 | 3:15:10 | |
says that its particular instance is an exception. | 3:15:10 | 3:15:13 | |
And it isn't a willy-nilly use of the petition. | 3:15:13 | 3:15:15 | |
Let me say two things. First, I would like to see | 3:15:15 | 3:15:17 | |
petitions of concern used less often in the time ahead. | 3:15:17 | 3:15:19 | |
And Sinn Fein would like to increase its mandate so that we can deliver | 3:15:19 | 3:15:23 | |
more of our pledges in government. | 3:15:23 | 3:15:25 | |
And I'm proud of what the Executive has achieved. | 3:15:25 | 3:15:28 | |
I know some people come to the table | 3:15:28 | 3:15:29 | |
and want to defend our ministers only in the Executive. | 3:15:29 | 3:15:32 | |
Except for Mr Kennedy, who is in opposition now, | 3:15:32 | 3:15:34 | |
everyone else has been in government. | 3:15:34 | 3:15:36 | |
And I'm proud of what's been achieved, 40,000 jobs, | 3:15:36 | 3:15:38 | |
the huge number of new schools built in my consituency alone, | 3:15:38 | 3:15:41 | |
and encouraging other people... | 3:15:41 | 3:15:42 | |
You're getting off the point here. | 3:15:42 | 3:15:45 | |
Much more has to be done and part of that has to be to stop | 3:15:45 | 3:15:48 | |
emphasising the divisions in Stormont, | 3:15:48 | 3:15:50 | |
and part of that is the petitions of concern. | 3:15:50 | 3:15:52 | |
They are necessary in some circumstances | 3:15:52 | 3:15:54 | |
but I would like to see them used less often. So that's not why... | 3:15:54 | 3:15:57 | |
Does it worry you that Sinn Fein could have enough seats | 3:15:57 | 3:16:01 | |
to trigger petitions of concern off its own bat in the new mandate? | 3:16:01 | 3:16:04 | |
Is that a nightmare scenario for the DUP? | 3:16:04 | 3:16:06 | |
The people will decide how many MLAs to return to Stormont. | 3:16:06 | 3:16:10 | |
And that's a matter for the electorate on Thursday. | 3:16:10 | 3:16:12 | |
Of course we want to see as many Democratic Unionist Party | 3:16:12 | 3:16:16 | |
representatives, because then we will be the ones | 3:16:16 | 3:16:18 | |
that will stand up and get away from some of the policies that | 3:16:18 | 3:16:21 | |
Sinn Fein put forward in the last election, | 3:16:21 | 3:16:24 | |
where they blocked welfare reform and we had to step in, | 3:16:24 | 3:16:26 | |
provide leadership and make sure that was done from Westminster. | 3:16:26 | 3:16:29 | |
There are big differences between us and Sinn Fein. | 3:16:29 | 3:16:32 | |
There're differences between all of us. | 3:16:32 | 3:16:33 | |
We're determined to bring people together. | 3:16:33 | 3:16:36 | |
Arlene is going to provide strong leadership. | 3:16:36 | 3:16:38 | |
Danny talks about Arlene being front and centre of our campaign. | 3:16:38 | 3:16:41 | |
We're proud of Arlene's record since she became First Minister. | 3:16:41 | 3:16:44 | |
There was a major splash | 3:16:44 | 3:16:45 | |
in the Sunday Times Magazine today on Arlene. | 3:16:45 | 3:16:48 | |
Why are even national figures focusing on Arlene? | 3:16:48 | 3:16:50 | |
Because they see her as the key person | 3:16:50 | 3:16:53 | |
to drive Northern Ireland forward. | 3:16:53 | 3:16:54 | |
But in order to be First Minister, in order to have | 3:16:54 | 3:16:57 | |
as many Executive ministers around the table to implement our plan, | 3:16:57 | 3:17:02 | |
which is a very comprehensive plan... | 3:17:02 | 3:17:04 | |
Danny, you want to come in. | 3:17:04 | 3:17:06 | |
The point about it is, they need to ensure people go out and vote | 3:17:06 | 3:17:10 | |
-for the DUP candidates. -I think you've made that point. | 3:17:10 | 3:17:13 | |
You've said that. Danny. | 3:17:13 | 3:17:15 | |
This is a campaign based on fear and the DUP campaign is largely | 3:17:17 | 3:17:23 | |
now reduced to sending people letters at the last minute to say, | 3:17:23 | 3:17:27 | |
-"Please vote for us, otherwise bad things happen." -Rubbish! | 3:17:27 | 3:17:30 | |
That is not the basis for even a fresh start. | 3:17:30 | 3:17:34 | |
-But Danny can't even say... -Let Danny speak. You've had a fair go. | 3:17:34 | 3:17:37 | |
-Let's hear what Danny has to say. -He's not even saying | 3:17:37 | 3:17:40 | |
-he's going to be in government. -Where is the basis for a fresh start | 3:17:40 | 3:17:43 | |
when people in North Belfast are being told | 3:17:43 | 3:17:45 | |
you can't even vote for other pro-union parties, | 3:17:45 | 3:17:48 | |
you must vote for the Democratic Unionists? | 3:17:48 | 3:17:50 | |
-Claire, you wanted to come in. -But you were happy, Danny, last year... | 3:17:50 | 3:17:54 | |
Hang on, Nigel. Claire, you wanted to come in. | 3:17:54 | 3:17:56 | |
..to take DUP support to stop a Sinn Fein person becoming an MP. | 3:17:56 | 3:17:59 | |
It's far more important in terms of First Minister... | 3:17:59 | 3:18:01 | |
-Do you mind? Claire. -That is why you are MP for North Belfast. | 3:18:01 | 3:18:04 | |
This is distraction as well. | 3:18:04 | 3:18:05 | |
This squabbling is what is turning people off | 3:18:05 | 3:18:08 | |
and plunging our turnout. But it is a bit frustrating, | 3:18:08 | 3:18:10 | |
parties are acting like they just landed on planet Earth | 3:18:10 | 3:18:13 | |
and haven't been driving Stormont for the last ten years. | 3:18:13 | 3:18:16 | |
What people see as inertia and under-delivery, | 3:18:16 | 3:18:18 | |
and it is not just the petition of concern, and we put forward | 3:18:18 | 3:18:22 | |
quite comprehensive proposals to reform that mechanism, | 3:18:22 | 3:18:25 | |
it's the general log jam, | 3:18:25 | 3:18:26 | |
the fact powers kept being pulled into the centre in OFM-DFM, | 3:18:26 | 3:18:29 | |
strategies go in and nothing comes out at all. | 3:18:29 | 3:18:32 | |
I think of the ugly scaffolding, as people have called it, | 3:18:32 | 3:18:35 | |
around the petition of concern, | 3:18:35 | 3:18:36 | |
we tried to reform some of the things in the opposition bill, | 3:18:36 | 3:18:39 | |
and it's regrettable parties like Sinn Fein | 3:18:39 | 3:18:41 | |
didn't support any of that material. | 3:18:41 | 3:18:42 | |
But the petition of concern was envisaged to be | 3:18:42 | 3:18:45 | |
a human rights mechanism, and we think it should go back to that, | 3:18:45 | 3:18:48 | |
as in 1998, to protect minorities and not thwart them. | 3:18:48 | 3:18:50 | |
Stephen Farry, the Alliance Party, and you in particular, | 3:18:50 | 3:18:53 | |
found things you wanted to do blocked, effectively, | 3:18:53 | 3:18:56 | |
by others in the Executive. | 3:18:56 | 3:18:58 | |
Are you concerned about what Claire Hanna has referred to | 3:18:58 | 3:19:00 | |
as the ugly scaffolding in certain circumstances? | 3:19:00 | 3:19:03 | |
It's important we move beyond talking about process issues | 3:19:03 | 3:19:06 | |
and personalities, and talk about policy outcomes. | 3:19:06 | 3:19:08 | |
This is what the election is fundamentally about. | 3:19:08 | 3:19:11 | |
I got most of my agenda through, as a minister, as did David. | 3:19:11 | 3:19:13 | |
There were some examples where we found the situation frustrating. | 3:19:13 | 3:19:16 | |
For example, the crisis we had around the budgets | 3:19:16 | 3:19:18 | |
was a massive problem. | 3:19:18 | 3:19:19 | |
We could have done a lot more in terms of scaling up what we've done, | 3:19:19 | 3:19:23 | |
particularly around skills. | 3:19:23 | 3:19:24 | |
If we are to deliver 50,000 new jobs, | 3:19:24 | 3:19:26 | |
we have to invest a lot more in skills, | 3:19:26 | 3:19:28 | |
we estimate £85 million per year. | 3:19:28 | 3:19:31 | |
The one example where I was blocked was around teacher-training reform | 3:19:31 | 3:19:35 | |
where we are trying to save money to reinvest it in the skills we need, | 3:19:35 | 3:19:38 | |
For example, engineers, computer scientists. | 3:19:38 | 3:19:41 | |
We all know we're training too many teachers. | 3:19:41 | 3:19:43 | |
But my four party colleagues here decided they wanted | 3:19:43 | 3:19:46 | |
to protect the best interests of the current infrastructure. | 3:19:46 | 3:19:49 | |
The point is, the smaller parties have absolutely no capacity | 3:19:49 | 3:19:53 | |
to push through what they want to do | 3:19:53 | 3:19:56 | |
if Sinn Fein and the DUP want to block it. | 3:19:56 | 3:19:58 | |
-That won't change in the next mandate. -On some issues, we've seen | 3:19:58 | 3:20:02 | |
Sinn Fein and the DUP blocking each other on a host of reforms. | 3:20:02 | 3:20:04 | |
But, if a minister focuses on a very clear agenda, | 3:20:04 | 3:20:06 | |
as David and I did in our departments, | 3:20:06 | 3:20:08 | |
we can achieve a huge amount. | 3:20:08 | 3:20:10 | |
David has reduced crime, | 3:20:10 | 3:20:11 | |
I've improved skill levels with more places in terms of apprenticeships. | 3:20:11 | 3:20:14 | |
Did anybody else do a good job at all? | 3:20:14 | 3:20:16 | |
-Did anyone else do a good job in the Executive? -I am sure others did. | 3:20:16 | 3:20:19 | |
Mairtin, it is for you to defend your ministers. | 3:20:19 | 3:20:21 | |
But the potential game-changer, at our suggestion, is that, | 3:20:21 | 3:20:25 | |
after the election, | 3:20:25 | 3:20:27 | |
those parties entitled to Executive positions, | 3:20:27 | 3:20:30 | |
have a negotiation, and have an agreed programme for government. | 3:20:30 | 3:20:34 | |
-All five parties potentially? -Whoever is eligible for that. | 3:20:34 | 3:20:38 | |
But the loudest voices at the table, Danny Kennedy, | 3:20:38 | 3:20:40 | |
-will be the DUP and Sinn Fein. -Well. You don't know that. | 3:20:40 | 3:20:44 | |
It's extremely likely. | 3:20:44 | 3:20:45 | |
We have fought a very positive campaign. | 3:20:45 | 3:20:48 | |
And we are pleased with the response we are getting. | 3:20:48 | 3:20:51 | |
We will await the outcome. But I have to say, | 3:20:51 | 3:20:53 | |
I am increasingly worried that there is a precooked programme | 3:20:53 | 3:20:56 | |
for government that has been hatched up | 3:20:56 | 3:20:58 | |
-between the DUP and Sinn Fein. -We've discussed that already. | 3:20:58 | 3:21:01 | |
-Claire? -And that doesn't lead to collective responsibility. | 3:21:01 | 3:21:05 | |
Claire Hanna, I just want to ask you about turnout. | 3:21:05 | 3:21:07 | |
There is a tremendous concern in certain quarters | 3:21:07 | 3:21:10 | |
that public apathy is running at an all-time high, | 3:21:10 | 3:21:13 | |
the public not connecting with Stormont. | 3:21:13 | 3:21:15 | |
In the elections in 2003 and 2007, turnout was 63%. | 3:21:15 | 3:21:19 | |
In 2011, it was 54%. | 3:21:19 | 3:21:22 | |
There are some people saying it could dip below 50%. | 3:21:22 | 3:21:24 | |
We don't know, but it could dip below 50%. | 3:21:24 | 3:21:26 | |
If it does, how serious is that for democracy? | 3:21:26 | 3:21:29 | |
It's very serious and it's worrying and it's sad. | 3:21:29 | 3:21:31 | |
If you go further than 2003, close to 80% voted in the referendum. | 3:21:31 | 3:21:35 | |
So, if we do drop down to 50, that really is a stark fall. | 3:21:35 | 3:21:39 | |
A referendum's exceptional, though. | 3:21:39 | 3:21:40 | |
Clearly, people are switched off from Stormont. | 3:21:40 | 3:21:43 | |
I know, when you knock on doors, | 3:21:43 | 3:21:44 | |
people aren't switched off from politics. | 3:21:44 | 3:21:46 | |
They still do want to talk to you about issues around education, | 3:21:46 | 3:21:50 | |
they want to know why all these negotiations in Stormont House, | 3:21:50 | 3:21:52 | |
why don't they deal with things like the 11-plus | 3:21:52 | 3:21:55 | |
and not just mechanisms to elect First Ministers. | 3:21:55 | 3:21:57 | |
People are switching off from politics in a Stormont sense. | 3:21:57 | 3:22:00 | |
But they are interested in issues. | 3:22:00 | 3:22:02 | |
Unfortunately, it serves some of the parties a little bit better | 3:22:02 | 3:22:05 | |
if people switch off. | 3:22:05 | 3:22:07 | |
And I think the voting data since 1998 will show | 3:22:07 | 3:22:11 | |
that it's largely the centre ground switching off. | 3:22:11 | 3:22:13 | |
Very quickly, Mairtin and Nigel, | 3:22:13 | 3:22:15 | |
is there a direction of travel, as far as turnout is concerned? | 3:22:15 | 3:22:18 | |
And does it give you cause for concern? | 3:22:18 | 3:22:19 | |
Obviously, I want to see turnout get up as much as possible. | 3:22:19 | 3:22:22 | |
I am reminded in the last Scottish Parliament elections when it was 50% | 3:22:22 | 3:22:25 | |
and in Wales it was 41%. | 3:22:25 | 3:22:26 | |
So, we still do pretty well in Northern Ireland. | 3:22:26 | 3:22:29 | |
What I find out, when I go round the doors, | 3:22:29 | 3:22:31 | |
and we knock doors, and we talk to people. | 3:22:31 | 3:22:33 | |
Arlene has been on a listening tour, listening to people. | 3:22:33 | 3:22:35 | |
She's travelled some 15,000 miles, as far as Rathlin Island, | 3:22:35 | 3:22:39 | |
talking to people, because we want to ensure | 3:22:39 | 3:22:44 | |
that the policies we implement after the election | 3:22:44 | 3:22:46 | |
-are ones that resonate with people. -I understand that. | 3:22:46 | 3:22:49 | |
I'm asking you specifically what the danger would be | 3:22:49 | 3:22:52 | |
-if turnout dips below 50%? -Obviously, we want to ensure | 3:22:52 | 3:22:54 | |
it's as high as possible, | 3:22:54 | 3:22:55 | |
-but we have to work with the mandate given to us. -Mairtin? | 3:22:55 | 3:22:58 | |
The reality is, Mark, when I go round the doors, | 3:22:58 | 3:23:00 | |
I think people are engaged. I think the media could do more. | 3:23:00 | 3:23:03 | |
We launched a health document, an education document, | 3:23:03 | 3:23:05 | |
agri-food documents, and there wasn't a single camera | 3:23:05 | 3:23:07 | |
that turned up to any of them. | 3:23:07 | 3:23:09 | |
So, I think the media have a role of ensuring... | 3:23:09 | 3:23:11 | |
We're having a discussion now. I'm sure lots are watching. | 3:23:11 | 3:23:13 | |
Let's not waste time talking about the media. | 3:23:13 | 3:23:15 | |
-You raised the issue. -I didn't raise the issue of the media. Mairtin? | 3:23:15 | 3:23:18 | |
But that's a relevant issue. | 3:23:18 | 3:23:20 | |
In South Belfast, the Sinn Fein vote's gone up. | 3:23:20 | 3:23:22 | |
We're taking a larger percentage of those who turn up. | 3:23:22 | 3:23:24 | |
We want to engage more young people. | 3:23:24 | 3:23:26 | |
I do find young people engaged in issues of marriage equality, | 3:23:26 | 3:23:28 | |
the Irish Language Act, refugees, looking after our neighbours. | 3:23:28 | 3:23:31 | |
We need to take those issues of compassion, of social justice, | 3:23:31 | 3:23:35 | |
and bring them into the heart of government. | 3:23:35 | 3:23:38 | |
I'd like to see more people come out and vote. | 3:23:38 | 3:23:40 | |
But I also say to those I meet on the doorsteps, | 3:23:40 | 3:23:43 | |
if you don't cast your vote, | 3:23:43 | 3:23:45 | |
if you don't give us the power to deliver for you, | 3:23:45 | 3:23:47 | |
if you opt out of the system, then you can't criticise the government. | 3:23:47 | 3:23:51 | |
A couple of things I want to get in, | 3:23:51 | 3:23:53 | |
and we don't have a lot of time left, so, if you could be brief, | 3:23:53 | 3:23:56 | |
if that's at all possible, | 3:23:56 | 3:23:58 | |
that would be a big help to people watching at home. | 3:23:58 | 3:24:01 | |
Sinn Fein has said legislation, Nigel Dodds, | 3:24:01 | 3:24:03 | |
bringing forth marriage equality, | 3:24:03 | 3:24:04 | |
will be a priority in the next mandate. | 3:24:04 | 3:24:07 | |
Will the DUP lodge another petition of concern | 3:24:07 | 3:24:09 | |
to block that if it happens? | 3:24:09 | 3:24:11 | |
On the issue of lodging petitions of concern, | 3:24:11 | 3:24:13 | |
we will wait to see the circumstances | 3:24:13 | 3:24:14 | |
the issue has brought forward. | 3:24:14 | 3:24:16 | |
Arlene has made it clear she will make the decision then | 3:24:16 | 3:24:19 | |
along with the Assembly Members. | 3:24:19 | 3:24:20 | |
Are there any circumstances where the DUP would sit back | 3:24:20 | 3:24:23 | |
and allow marriage equality to proceed? | 3:24:23 | 3:24:25 | |
-I'm not going to speculate. No. Our position is very clear. -Why not? | 3:24:25 | 3:24:28 | |
We've been consistent on this matter, | 3:24:28 | 3:24:30 | |
we believe we are not in the business of redefining marriage. | 3:24:30 | 3:24:33 | |
We want to see people treated properly and equally | 3:24:33 | 3:24:36 | |
and with respect. We have a position on that. | 3:24:36 | 3:24:38 | |
But, I have to say, on the doorsteps, | 3:24:38 | 3:24:40 | |
the issues coming through to me are education, health... | 3:24:40 | 3:24:43 | |
I'm asking about marriage equality. | 3:24:43 | 3:24:44 | |
-I've made that very clear. -Just answer this question. | 3:24:44 | 3:24:47 | |
You said earlier on, interestingly, you're a democrat, | 3:24:47 | 3:24:49 | |
and the people will decide. If the people decide | 3:24:49 | 3:24:51 | |
that a majority of the 108 MLAs | 3:24:51 | 3:24:53 | |
would support a change as far as marriage is concerned, | 3:24:53 | 3:24:56 | |
would the DUP, as democrats, allow that to happen, | 3:24:56 | 3:24:58 | |
or would you use a mechanism, which some see as undemocratic, | 3:24:58 | 3:25:02 | |
-to block it? -For the sake of repeating myself, | 3:25:02 | 3:25:04 | |
-because you obviously didn't hear the first question. -I heard, | 3:25:04 | 3:25:07 | |
-you didn't answer. -What I'm saying very clearly is | 3:25:07 | 3:25:10 | |
-we have a consistent position on this as a party. -So, you'd block it? | 3:25:10 | 3:25:13 | |
Well, any technicality about process, about petitions of concern, | 3:25:13 | 3:25:17 | |
let us wait and see what the circumstances are. | 3:25:17 | 3:25:20 | |
Our position is very clear. | 3:25:20 | 3:25:21 | |
We are against the redefinition of marriage. But concentrating on... | 3:25:21 | 3:25:24 | |
-I think that's fairly clear. -Yes, it is. | 3:25:24 | 3:25:27 | |
And we're going to concentrate on education, health and jobs. | 3:25:27 | 3:25:30 | |
Are you going to bring this back to the table, | 3:25:30 | 3:25:33 | |
or are you going to concentrate on those other issues? | 3:25:33 | 3:25:35 | |
It's a really interesting area, | 3:25:35 | 3:25:37 | |
I think the argument has been won out in the wider community. | 3:25:37 | 3:25:39 | |
-It hasn't been won in legislation. -You're absolutely right. | 3:25:39 | 3:25:42 | |
But, in the wider community, | 3:25:42 | 3:25:44 | |
and I see it particularly during the Pride parade, | 3:25:44 | 3:25:46 | |
the huge turnout of young people who support that, | 3:25:46 | 3:25:49 | |
people accept that, live and let live, love thy neighbour, | 3:25:49 | 3:25:51 | |
having a fully-inclusive society, especially here, | 3:25:51 | 3:25:54 | |
is the best way forward. We've had enough discrimination and exclusion. | 3:25:54 | 3:25:57 | |
It's also the case, Mairtin, with respect, there are a lot of people | 3:25:57 | 3:26:00 | |
in Northern Ireland who are uncomfortable about any change. | 3:26:00 | 3:26:03 | |
Absolutely. But I think the majority are now accepting, | 3:26:03 | 3:26:06 | |
and I got an e-mail last night from a lady who said | 3:26:06 | 3:26:09 | |
her niece is transgender, | 3:26:09 | 3:26:11 | |
how much she appreciates the fact we are standing up for all our people. | 3:26:11 | 3:26:14 | |
We need to move forward, it would be great to move forward | 3:26:14 | 3:26:17 | |
by putting that emphasis on consensus. | 3:26:17 | 3:26:20 | |
We will do that, and Colum Eastwood and I brought the motion | 3:26:20 | 3:26:23 | |
that got a majority for equal marriage in the Assembly last year. | 3:26:23 | 3:26:26 | |
We will bring a bill that does tackle in turn | 3:26:26 | 3:26:29 | |
each of the issues, and does write in protections for churches, | 3:26:29 | 3:26:32 | |
which seems to be the concern for many people. | 3:26:32 | 3:26:35 | |
But, what the campaign last year down south | 3:26:35 | 3:26:37 | |
showed us is there isn't anything to fear. | 3:26:37 | 3:26:39 | |
The world hasn't stopped turning. It is about equality, | 3:26:39 | 3:26:42 | |
and recognising the lives and aspirations of everybody here. | 3:26:42 | 3:26:46 | |
I think that shows how, when you do engage, and when you, one-by-one, | 3:26:46 | 3:26:50 | |
address the concerns, in a balanced way, | 3:26:50 | 3:26:52 | |
-you don't shout people down, people will be reassured. -Danny? | 3:26:52 | 3:26:55 | |
A lot of these issues will remain matters of conscience | 3:26:55 | 3:26:58 | |
for members of the Ulster Unionists Assembly party. | 3:26:58 | 3:27:01 | |
-Other issues like abortion as well? -Yes. | 3:27:01 | 3:27:03 | |
And my personal view on abortion, | 3:27:03 | 3:27:05 | |
I am opposed to the extension of the 1967 to Northern Ireland. | 3:27:05 | 3:27:10 | |
And I also am opposed to same-sex relationships. | 3:27:10 | 3:27:12 | |
But you think there could be some change on the issue of abortion | 3:27:12 | 3:27:16 | |
in cases like fatal foetal abnormality? | 3:27:16 | 3:27:18 | |
Other colleagues take a different view. | 3:27:18 | 3:27:22 | |
-And we will look seriously at all of these issues. -Stephen? | 3:27:22 | 3:27:27 | |
On equality, equality is not a zero-sum game. | 3:27:27 | 3:27:30 | |
So, if we extend civil marriage to same-sex couples, | 3:27:30 | 3:27:32 | |
we don't take away from anyone else's marriage. | 3:27:32 | 3:27:34 | |
That is entirely achievable. | 3:27:34 | 3:27:36 | |
If the Assembly doesn't act on this in the next five years, | 3:27:36 | 3:27:39 | |
I predict that the courts will intervene and ensure it does happen. | 3:27:39 | 3:27:42 | |
The courts are part of our democratic process. | 3:27:42 | 3:27:44 | |
Wouldn't it be great if we could sort it out, the Irish Language Act, | 3:27:44 | 3:27:47 | |
marriage equality? We, together, could do it | 3:27:47 | 3:27:49 | |
instead of having to wait for the courts? | 3:27:49 | 3:27:51 | |
That is a challenge for all the parties. | 3:27:51 | 3:27:53 | |
That will happen if the Assembly fails. | 3:27:53 | 3:27:55 | |
Maybe we've just lifted the curtain slightly | 3:27:55 | 3:27:57 | |
and given people a glimpse of the kind of issues that will come up | 3:27:57 | 3:28:00 | |
whenever people are returned after Thursday's election. | 3:28:00 | 3:28:03 | |
We have to leave it there. Thank you all for coming in to join us today. | 3:28:03 | 3:28:06 | |
We'll hear what Professors Deirdre Heenan and Rick Wilford | 3:28:06 | 3:28:09 | |
made of that very shortly, | 3:28:09 | 3:28:10 | |
but first, to Dublin and the historic deal | 3:28:10 | 3:28:13 | |
between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, which is set to see Enda Kenny, | 3:28:13 | 3:28:16 | |
described as a political corpse just a few weeks ago, | 3:28:16 | 3:28:18 | |
elected Taoiseach on Wednesday. | 3:28:18 | 3:28:20 | |
The formation of a working government | 3:28:20 | 3:28:22 | |
now seems to rest in the hands of the independent TDs. | 3:28:22 | 3:28:25 | |
What is now going to happen is intensive work will now | 3:28:25 | 3:28:28 | |
continue in relation to the text of the agreement between both parties. | 3:28:28 | 3:28:34 | |
That will then be shared with the Taoiseach | 3:28:34 | 3:28:36 | |
and with the leader of Deanna Fail | 3:28:36 | 3:28:39 | |
and then with our respective Parliamentary party meetings. | 3:28:39 | 3:28:41 | |
But we have concluded our work here. | 3:28:41 | 3:28:44 | |
It has been a tortuous and long and difficult at times process | 3:28:44 | 3:28:50 | |
but I think that the formation of a minority government and the document | 3:28:50 | 3:28:56 | |
that we can hopefully agree in the next two days can become a blueprint | 3:28:56 | 3:29:02 | |
for the formation of future minority governments in this jurisdiction. | 3:29:02 | 3:29:06 | |
We're determined to implement the policies | 3:29:06 | 3:29:08 | |
that we put forward in the Independent Alliance, | 3:29:08 | 3:29:10 | |
but we're going in there to fight on these issues. | 3:29:10 | 3:29:12 | |
Do you think you're going to be successful? | 3:29:12 | 3:29:14 | |
Do you think you will see yourselves in government? | 3:29:14 | 3:29:16 | |
Well, we're very optimistic, | 3:29:16 | 3:29:17 | |
but there are obviously a lot of things | 3:29:17 | 3:29:20 | |
which we need to go into the final document which are radical, | 3:29:20 | 3:29:23 | |
responsible, but which we've got to achieve. We've got to be able | 3:29:23 | 3:29:27 | |
to show that Irish politics has changed by this time next week. | 3:29:27 | 3:29:31 | |
So, let's go to our Dublin correspondent, Shane Harrison, | 3:29:31 | 3:29:34 | |
for the very latest. | 3:29:34 | 3:29:35 | |
Shane, hello to you. It's been 65 days since the election now. | 3:29:35 | 3:29:40 | |
Against the odds, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have done the deal. | 3:29:40 | 3:29:43 | |
But of course it's not the end of the matter. | 3:29:43 | 3:29:45 | |
What do you think happens next? | 3:29:45 | 3:29:47 | |
Well, both Parliamentary parties | 3:29:47 | 3:29:49 | |
have to endorse the deal, but that's a given. | 3:29:49 | 3:29:52 | |
Then it's up to Fine Gael to persuade enough independent TDs | 3:29:52 | 3:29:55 | |
to support the particular arrangement. | 3:29:55 | 3:29:58 | |
That means getting Enda Kenny's vote up from 52 to 58, | 3:29:58 | 3:30:03 | |
with Fianna Fail abstaining, on Wednesday or shortly thereafter. | 3:30:03 | 3:30:07 | |
Now, some of those independent TDs may be tempted | 3:30:07 | 3:30:09 | |
to try and drive a hard bargain, but the people | 3:30:09 | 3:30:13 | |
who want a general election least are the independents, | 3:30:13 | 3:30:15 | |
and Enda Kenny has a bit of a carrot, | 3:30:15 | 3:30:17 | |
he's got up to five jobs to offer the independents, | 3:30:17 | 3:30:21 | |
either in cabinet or at junior ministerial level, so I would say | 3:30:21 | 3:30:24 | |
on balance it's more likely that a government will be formed than not. | 3:30:24 | 3:30:27 | |
So, Shane, if there is a deal with the independents, | 3:30:27 | 3:30:30 | |
then it's to last three budgets, | 3:30:30 | 3:30:33 | |
this plan between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, what are the odds, | 3:30:33 | 3:30:36 | |
do you think, of that actually happening? | 3:30:36 | 3:30:39 | |
Cos three budgets, it's quite a long time potentially. | 3:30:39 | 3:30:42 | |
It is indeed. There's a lot of talk here about new politics, | 3:30:42 | 3:30:46 | |
Danish-style politics, | 3:30:46 | 3:30:47 | |
because the Danes are used to minority governments | 3:30:47 | 3:30:51 | |
and that means more consensus between the political parties, | 3:30:51 | 3:30:54 | |
TDs having more of an input into legislation | 3:30:54 | 3:30:57 | |
and holding the Executive or the Government more to account. | 3:30:57 | 3:31:01 | |
But it's not going to be the end of confrontational politics, | 3:31:01 | 3:31:04 | |
by any means, and as Harold Macmillan once said, | 3:31:04 | 3:31:07 | |
"Events, dear boy, events," can unhinge and damage | 3:31:07 | 3:31:11 | |
whatever arrangement may emerge. | 3:31:11 | 3:31:13 | |
And of course, while the country | 3:31:13 | 3:31:15 | |
may be administered, will it be governed? | 3:31:15 | 3:31:17 | |
Will this new arrangement be in a position to take tough decisions, | 3:31:17 | 3:31:20 | |
for example, if there's another economic crash? | 3:31:20 | 3:31:22 | |
That's a bridge which will have to be crossed, | 3:31:22 | 3:31:24 | |
and we don't yet know whether they will be able to do so. | 3:31:24 | 3:31:27 | |
And, Shane, just briefly and finally, | 3:31:27 | 3:31:28 | |
as I said there in the introduction, | 3:31:28 | 3:31:30 | |
Enda Kenny was described as a political corpse | 3:31:30 | 3:31:32 | |
just a few weeks ago, and we talked about that. | 3:31:32 | 3:31:35 | |
He could be re-elected as Taoiseach on Wednesday, | 3:31:35 | 3:31:39 | |
but how long do you think he will survive even within his own party? | 3:31:39 | 3:31:43 | |
Well, Enda Kenny has a chance to make history | 3:31:43 | 3:31:45 | |
and become the first Fine Gael Taoiseach to be re-elected after | 3:31:45 | 3:31:49 | |
a general election, but I doubt very much if he'll be Taoiseach | 3:31:49 | 3:31:52 | |
this time next year, | 3:31:52 | 3:31:53 | |
and I'd be of the view that Francis Fitzgerald, | 3:31:53 | 3:31:56 | |
Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar would be the same mind. | 3:31:56 | 3:31:59 | |
OK, thanks, Shane, for that. | 3:31:59 | 3:32:01 | |
You're going to be busy this week in Dublin, no doubt. | 3:32:01 | 3:32:04 | |
Back to Belfast, though, and the elections to Stormont | 3:32:04 | 3:32:06 | |
with our professors, Rick Wilford and Deirdre Heenan. | 3:32:06 | 3:32:09 | |
Hello to you both. | 3:32:09 | 3:32:10 | |
You've been listening and watching with interest | 3:32:10 | 3:32:12 | |
to the political discussion that we've just had on the programme | 3:32:12 | 3:32:15 | |
with the five main parties. | 3:32:15 | 3:32:17 | |
Deirdre, what did you make of it, | 3:32:17 | 3:32:19 | |
the issue of the sham fight between the DUP and Sinn Fein | 3:32:19 | 3:32:22 | |
on the one hand, but this draft programme for government, | 3:32:22 | 3:32:25 | |
as some people see it on the other? | 3:32:25 | 3:32:26 | |
How does it stack up from where you're sitting? | 3:32:26 | 3:32:29 | |
Well, Danny Kennedy referred a number of times to something | 3:32:29 | 3:32:32 | |
that was pre-cooked, and there is a feeling of, | 3:32:32 | 3:32:34 | |
"Here's one I made earlier" when you look at the manifestos. | 3:32:34 | 3:32:37 | |
I think, though, that isn't the issue | 3:32:37 | 3:32:39 | |
and it isn't something we really should have our focus on. | 3:32:39 | 3:32:42 | |
If you're going to write a manifesto, in many cases, | 3:32:42 | 3:32:44 | |
they are motherhood and apple pie. | 3:32:44 | 3:32:46 | |
It's more money for health, it's more money for education, | 3:32:46 | 3:32:48 | |
it's more money in infrastructure, but it's very light on detail. | 3:32:48 | 3:32:51 | |
Where is the money going to come from? | 3:32:51 | 3:32:53 | |
How are we going to finance at the same time we're going to cut taxes? | 3:32:53 | 3:32:56 | |
It just doesn't stack up. | 3:32:56 | 3:32:57 | |
I think the biggest issue, though, in those manifestos is, | 3:32:57 | 3:33:00 | |
both main parties have hung their hats clearly on corporation tax | 3:33:00 | 3:33:04 | |
as a game changer, the reduced rate of corporation tax. | 3:33:04 | 3:33:07 | |
What they have not discussed at all, the elephant in the room is | 3:33:07 | 3:33:10 | |
how are they going to deal with the cuts to the block grant? | 3:33:10 | 3:33:13 | |
So we know for certainty there will be cuts to the block grant. | 3:33:13 | 3:33:16 | |
We know that the money will come from front-line services, | 3:33:16 | 3:33:19 | |
so there's a severe lack of long-term financial planning. | 3:33:19 | 3:33:21 | |
I mean, it is interesting, Rick, | 3:33:21 | 3:33:23 | |
some people have said during this campaign, | 3:33:23 | 3:33:25 | |
"What, in fact, is the point of a manifesto anyway?", | 3:33:25 | 3:33:27 | |
because people make all sorts of pledges and commitments | 3:33:27 | 3:33:30 | |
and they talk about all sorts of strategies but in fact, | 3:33:30 | 3:33:32 | |
none of this is going to come out in the wash until there has been | 3:33:32 | 3:33:35 | |
a detailed discussion for up to two weeks on a programme for government. | 3:33:35 | 3:33:38 | |
So does a manifesto pledge mean anything? | 3:33:38 | 3:33:41 | |
Well, it's a series of wish lists, in a way. | 3:33:41 | 3:33:43 | |
I certainly agree with Deirdre when she says these are largely uncosted. | 3:33:43 | 3:33:47 | |
And we saw with Gerard Diver's unfortunate, car accident interview. | 3:33:47 | 3:33:51 | |
-And he wasn't the only one. -No, he wasn't. I think Conor Murphy | 3:33:51 | 3:33:53 | |
had an equally troublesome time on Friday in trying to explain | 3:33:53 | 3:33:57 | |
this particular point about if the block grant is reduced | 3:33:57 | 3:34:00 | |
to pay for corporation tax cuts, | 3:34:00 | 3:34:02 | |
where are the cuts in departmental spending going to fall? | 3:34:02 | 3:34:07 | |
Is it a sham fight? | 3:34:07 | 3:34:08 | |
No, I went through the five major parties' manifestos, | 3:34:08 | 3:34:12 | |
and there's an extraordinary degree of convergence | 3:34:12 | 3:34:14 | |
amongst and across all five, actually. | 3:34:14 | 3:34:17 | |
But there's particular convergence between Sinn Fein and the DUP, | 3:34:17 | 3:34:21 | |
so Danny Kennedy may be forgiven for thinking this is something | 3:34:21 | 3:34:24 | |
which is already, as it were, | 3:34:24 | 3:34:25 | |
Blue-Peter-style, been cooked up earlier. | 3:34:25 | 3:34:28 | |
But you're right, Mark, we're into a new phase now, | 3:34:28 | 3:34:31 | |
because post-election, we have up to two weeks of interparty negotiation | 3:34:31 | 3:34:36 | |
which will presumably be very leaky. | 3:34:36 | 3:34:39 | |
People will be appearing in front of cameras, and we'll find out | 3:34:39 | 3:34:42 | |
exactly what the temper of those talks are | 3:34:42 | 3:34:45 | |
and where the likely lines of agreement may fall. | 3:34:45 | 3:34:47 | |
Deirdre, on the other issues, moral and social issues, | 3:34:47 | 3:34:50 | |
we just touched on it towards the end of our discussion, | 3:34:50 | 3:34:52 | |
do you think there is a direction of travel? | 3:34:52 | 3:34:54 | |
Is that an issue, or are those issues which will find their way | 3:34:54 | 3:34:57 | |
back onto the order paper at Stormont, | 3:34:57 | 3:34:59 | |
or will the parties focus on the big issues like education | 3:34:59 | 3:35:03 | |
and corporation tax and the health service? | 3:35:03 | 3:35:05 | |
Well, I don't think we're going to find agreement on the moral issues | 3:35:05 | 3:35:08 | |
and they shouldn't be reduced to sound bites. | 3:35:08 | 3:35:10 | |
We need that informed discussion around abortion, | 3:35:10 | 3:35:13 | |
same-sex marriage, which is missing. We haven't had it. | 3:35:13 | 3:35:15 | |
All we hear are sound bites about compassion in some circumstances | 3:35:15 | 3:35:19 | |
and not other circumstances. | 3:35:19 | 3:35:20 | |
The actual underlying moral and ethical issues | 3:35:20 | 3:35:23 | |
have not been discussed. | 3:35:23 | 3:35:24 | |
I think, though, the majority of people at home | 3:35:24 | 3:35:27 | |
want health and education on the agenda. | 3:35:27 | 3:35:29 | |
Our education system is a mess. | 3:35:29 | 3:35:31 | |
40% of our young children are leaving | 3:35:31 | 3:35:33 | |
without GCSE English and maths, yet our politicians can stand up | 3:35:33 | 3:35:38 | |
and say we have a world-class education system. | 3:35:38 | 3:35:40 | |
I think most people find that offensive, and the nonchalance with | 3:35:40 | 3:35:44 | |
which our politicians seem to talk about our education system, | 3:35:44 | 3:35:47 | |
there is a real worry out there | 3:35:47 | 3:35:48 | |
that we are losing people, they are leaving because they don't | 3:35:48 | 3:35:52 | |
have prospects here, and that we don't have a skilled workforce. | 3:35:52 | 3:35:55 | |
And of course I am going to say there's a huge worry that we have | 3:35:55 | 3:35:58 | |
hung our hat, as I said, on corporation tax | 3:35:58 | 3:35:59 | |
while at the same time reducing skills | 3:35:59 | 3:36:02 | |
and reducing money to higher and further education. | 3:36:02 | 3:36:04 | |
Rick, that brings us on to the issue of voter apathy and turnout. | 3:36:04 | 3:36:08 | |
Again, does that matter? Some people are fairly relaxed about it | 3:36:08 | 3:36:12 | |
and say that it's up a bit, it's down a bit. | 3:36:12 | 3:36:14 | |
Nigel Dodds made the point that it's better here, much better here, | 3:36:14 | 3:36:17 | |
than in Scotland and Wales, but is that enough? | 3:36:17 | 3:36:19 | |
In 2011, there were five constituencies | 3:36:19 | 3:36:22 | |
where the turnout fell below 50%, | 3:36:22 | 3:36:24 | |
and they were largely in the east of Northern Ireland. | 3:36:24 | 3:36:28 | |
I think there could be more this time. | 3:36:28 | 3:36:29 | |
I think if the overall turnout falls below 50%, | 3:36:29 | 3:36:32 | |
then the legitimacy of the Assembly | 3:36:32 | 3:36:34 | |
and the Executive has to be put in question. | 3:36:34 | 3:36:37 | |
Now, you might say that's because most people perhaps are content | 3:36:37 | 3:36:41 | |
or at least complacent, or that they are utterly disaffected. | 3:36:41 | 3:36:45 | |
And I think where I maybe part company | 3:36:45 | 3:36:48 | |
a bit with Deirdre on the moral issues, I think that partly | 3:36:48 | 3:36:51 | |
because there are very strong single-issue campaigns | 3:36:51 | 3:36:54 | |
across Northern Ireland, particularly, I think, | 3:36:54 | 3:36:57 | |
on the abortion issue, over in the west | 3:36:57 | 3:36:59 | |
and certainly certain parts of Belfast, | 3:36:59 | 3:37:02 | |
there are huge leafleting campaigns on "no change to the law". | 3:37:02 | 3:37:05 | |
But I was a bit surprised Danny Kennedy actually said | 3:37:05 | 3:37:07 | |
he was opposed to same-sex relationships, full stop, | 3:37:07 | 3:37:10 | |
not even same-sex marriage. | 3:37:10 | 3:37:12 | |
But I think the important part | 3:37:12 | 3:37:13 | |
is I don't believe that it is voter apathy, | 3:37:13 | 3:37:16 | |
I think it's voter disengagement, voter anger. | 3:37:16 | 3:37:18 | |
And I think Claire Hanna was right | 3:37:18 | 3:37:20 | |
when she said that people are politically engaged, | 3:37:20 | 3:37:22 | |
they're just not engaged with Stormont because they see | 3:37:22 | 3:37:24 | |
that it hasn't delivered. We were told by Peter Robinson | 3:37:24 | 3:37:27 | |
that it would be all about delivery. | 3:37:27 | 3:37:28 | |
It simply has not delivered for people. | 3:37:28 | 3:37:30 | |
And as Stephen Farry said, the smaller parties, | 3:37:30 | 3:37:33 | |
even when they put forward good ideas, | 3:37:33 | 3:37:34 | |
can simply be vetoed, brushed aside. | 3:37:34 | 3:37:36 | |
-They can't get their ideas put forward. -OK. | 3:37:36 | 3:37:38 | |
I agree with Deirdre too about disengagement | 3:37:38 | 3:37:41 | |
and one of the great white hopes of the election, I suppose, | 3:37:41 | 3:37:44 | |
is the Good Friday generation of first-time voters, | 3:37:44 | 3:37:46 | |
whether they'll turn out to vote and we know from polling evidence | 3:37:46 | 3:37:50 | |
that they are much more liberally minded | 3:37:50 | 3:37:52 | |
on the moral and ethical issues that we were discussing. | 3:37:52 | 3:37:55 | |
But getting them out of bed to the opinion polls | 3:37:55 | 3:37:57 | |
I think is going to be a big problem. | 3:37:57 | 3:37:59 | |
But they could have a decisive outcome if they were so motivated. | 3:37:59 | 3:38:03 | |
I think one of the more energetic episodes during the course | 3:38:03 | 3:38:05 | |
of the campaign was the Good Friday generation programme | 3:38:05 | 3:38:08 | |
that Tara Mills and Stephen Nolan did | 3:38:08 | 3:38:10 | |
and you saw a lot of very well-informed, engaged young people. | 3:38:10 | 3:38:14 | |
How representative they are, though, well, I just hope they are. | 3:38:14 | 3:38:17 | |
-Getting any of us out of bed might be the issue. -Well, that's true. | 3:38:17 | 3:38:20 | |
That's what it makes it all so fascinating. | 3:38:20 | 3:38:22 | |
Thank you both very much indeed. That is it for today. | 3:38:22 | 3:38:24 | |
Don't forget the leaders' debate on Tuesday at 8pm on BBC One. | 3:38:24 | 3:38:27 | |
I'll be here with The View, as usual, | 3:38:27 | 3:38:29 | |
straight after the polls close on Thursday at 10.45. | 3:38:29 | 3:38:33 | |
And our Election 2016 results coverage | 3:38:33 | 3:38:35 | |
starts at 3pm on Friday afternoon on BBC One. | 3:38:35 | 3:38:39 | |
If politics is your thing, | 3:38:39 | 3:38:40 | |
you're in the right place for the next seven days. Bye-bye. | 3:38:40 | 3:38:43 |