02/04/2017 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland

It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained

But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal

After a momentous week, Britain's journey out

Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home

We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.

And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -

Coming up here... who's going up and who's going down?

The talks process at Stormont is to be ramped up this

week with the promise of round-table discussions.

So what will the three former Executive parties want out of it?

Join me in half an hour. changing their minds. MPs from

opposing sides give the view from there constituencies.

And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political

panel in the business - Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott

and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

For the people of Gibraltar, Clause 22 of the EU's draft negotiating

guidelines came as something of a shock.

The guidelines propose that the Government in Spain be

given a veto over any future trade deal as it applies to

The UK Government has reacted strongly, saying Gibraltar

will not be bargained away in the Brexit talks.

Here's the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, speaking

We are going to look after Gibraltar.

Gibraltar's going to be protected all the way, all the way,

because the sovereignty of Gibraltar cannot be changed without

the agreement of the people of Gibraltar and they have made it

very clear they do not want to live under Spanish rule

and it is interesting, I think, in the draft guidelines from the EU

that Spain is not saying that the whole thing is subject

Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is this a Spanish power grab or much

ado about nothing? It could be both. Clearly what is happening about this

negotiation and will happen again and again is that at different

points individual countries can start playing bargaining cards. They

will say, if you want a deal, you have to deliver this, UK. Spain is

doing it early. It might turn out to be nothing at all. It is an early

example of how to delete recruit after Article 50 is triggered, the

dynamic -- how after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic changes. At

certain points, any country can veto it. It gives them much more power

than we have clocked so far. Donald Tusk, the head of the European

Council, he went out of his way to say Britain mustn't deal by

laterally, with individual countries, it has to deal with the

EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking to add this bit in about Spain?

Those two things do not tally. I think on our part, when I say we, I

mean the Foreign Office and Number 10, we dropped the ball. By

excluding Gibraltar from the letter of Article 50, they gave an

opportunity to the Spanish to steal the narrative. Why this is

important, presentation, things looked like they were going quite

well for Theresa May when she handed over the letter, for a few hours,

and suddenly, you have this incredible symbolism of Gibraltar.

For Brexiteers, the idea that there could be some kind of diminishment

or failure in relation to Gibraltar, it would be a very symbolic

illustration of things not going entirely to plan. Forget the detail,

it does not look great. Gibraltar got mentions in the white paper.

They did not get a mention in the Article 50 notification. Do you

think the British Government did not see this coming? To be honest, I do

not think it would make a bit of difference. Theresa May could have

an entire chapter in her letter to Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the

EU would have still tried this on. For me, it was as much a point of

symbolism than it was for any power grab. It was a good point to make.

You need to know, Britain, you are not in our club, we will not have

your interests at heart. Officials after the press conference, they

went on to talk about it saying it is a territorial dispute. It is not!

Gibraltar is British. It is very much a shot across the bow is.

Whether it comes to pass, it is still yet to be seen. I feel we will

be chasing hares like this for the next few years. There will be many

other examples. They are greatly empowered by the whole process.

Britain has not really got... It has got to wait and hear what their

interpretation of Brexit is. They will negotiate, we will negotiate

accordingly. I have some sympathy about the letter, the Article 50

letter. They agonised over it, so much to get right in terms of

balance and tone. It would have been absurd to start mentioning Skegness

and everything else. Why not! Skegness, what did they do? It is a

real example of how the dynamic now changes. The Spanish royals are

going to come here in a couple of months, that could be interesting.

It will be good feelings breaking up, I am sure. -- breaking out.

So, after a historic week, the UK is now very much

But will it be a smooth journey to the exit door?

Or can we expect a bit of turbulence?

Are you taking back control, Prime Minister?

Big days in politics usually involve people shouting

and the Prime Minister getting in a car.

It is only a few hundred metres from Downing Street to Parliament.

But the short journey is the start of a much longer one

and we do not know exactly where we will all end up.

This is a historic moment from which there can

Moments earlier, this Dear John, sorry, Dear Don letter,

was delivered by Britain's ambassador in Brussels to the EU

He seemed genuinely upset to have been jilted.

Back in Westminster, hacks from around the world

were trying to work out what it all meant for the

So, here it is, a copy of the six-page letter

The letter reaffirms the PM's proposal to have talks on the exit

deal and a future trade deal at the same time.

It also mentioned the word "security" 11 times and stated

a failure to reach agreement would mean cooperation

in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.

Later, our very own Andrew got to ask her what would happen

if Britain left the European policing agency, Europol.

We would not be able to access information in the same way

as we would as a member, so it is important, I think,

we are able to negotiate a continuing relationship that

enables us to work together in the way that we have.

That night, the Brexiteers were happy.

We did not have a Mad Hatter, but now we do.

Down the street, even the Remainers, having a Mad Hatters' tea party,

I am not sure that is actually Boris, though.

The next morning, the papers suggested Theresa May would use

security as a bargaining tool and threaten to withdraw the UK's

cooperation in this area if no deal was struck.

Downing Street denied it, as did the Brexit Secretary.

We can both cope, but we will both be worse off.

That seems to be a statement of fact, it is not a threat,

David Davis had other business that morning,

introducing the Great Repeal Bill, outling his plans to transfer

all EU law into British law to change later,

It is not without its critics but the Brexit Secretary said,

among other benefits, it would make trade talks easier

As we exit the EU and seek a new deep and special partnership

with the European Union, we are doing so from a position

where we have the same standards and rules.

It will also ensure we deliver on our promise to end the supremacy

of European Union law in the UK as we exit.

There was, though, a small issue with the name.

The Government hit an early hurdle with the Great Repeal Bill.

Parliamentary draughtsmen said they were not allowed

Great(!) so it is just the Repeal Bill.

So far, it had been a tale of two cities.

By Friday, there was another, Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders

were having a meeting and President Tusk, yes, him again,

set out draft guidelines for the EU Brexit strategy.

Once, and only once, we have achieved sufficient progress

on the withdrawal can we discuss the framework for our

Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time,

as suggested by some in the UK, will not happen.

The EU 27 does not and will not pursue a punitive approach.

Brexit in itself is already punitive enough.

The pressure on Theresa May to get the Brexit process going has now

gone and the stage is being set elsewhere for the showdown

But face-to-face discussions are not likely to happen

Before May or early June. No one is celebrating just yet.

We're joined now from Kent by the former Conservative

The EU says it will not talk about a future relationship with the UK

until there has been sufficient progress on agreeing the divorce

bill. Should the UK agree to this phased approach? Well, I think you

can make too much about the sequence and timing of the negotiations. I

assume that it will be a case of nothing is agreed until everything

is agreed and so any agreements that might be reached on things talked

about early on will be very provisional, so I think you can make

a big deal about the timing and the sequence when I do not think it

really matters as much as all that. Don't people have a right in this

country to be surprised of the talk of a massive multi-billion pound

divorce settlement? I do not remember either side making much of

this in the referendum, do you? No. A select committee of the House of

Lords recently reported and said that there was no legal basis for

any exit fee. We will have to see how the negotiations go. I think

some of the figures cited so far are wildly out of kilter and wildly

unrealistic. We will have to see what happens in the negotiations. As

one of your panel commented earlier, there will be lots of hares to

pursue over the next couple of years and we should not get too excited

about any of them. Would you accept that we make... It may not be

anything like the figures Brussels is kicking around of 50, 60 billion

euros, do you think we will have to make a one-off settlement? If we get

everything else we want, if we get a really good trade deal and access

for the City of London and so on, speaking for myself, I would be

prepared to make a modest payment. But it all depends on the deal we

get. What would modest be? Oh, I cannot give you a figure. We are

right at the start of the negotiations. I do not think that

would be agreed until near the end. The EU says that if there is a

transition period of several years after the negotiations, and there is

more talk of that, the UK must remain subject to the free movement

of peoples and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, would

that be acceptable to you? It depends on the nature of the

transitional agreement. We are getting well ahead of ourselves

here. You cannot, I think, for any judgment as to whether there should

be a transitional stage until you know what the final deal is. If

there is to be a final deal. And then you know how long it might take

to implement that deal. That is something I think that it is really

rather futile to talk about at this stage. It may become relevant,

depending on the nature of the deal, and that is the proper time to talk

about it and decide what the answer to the questions you pose might be.

Except the EU has laid this out in its negotiation mandate and it is

reasonable to ask people like yourself, should we accept that? It

is reasonable for me to say, they will raise all sorts of things in

their negotiating mandate and we do not need to form a view of all of

them at this stage. Let me try another one. The EU says if they do

agree what you have called a comprehensive free trade deal, we

would have to accept EU constraints on state aid and taxes like VAT and

corporation tax. Would you accept that? Again, I am not sure quite

what they have in mind on that. We will be an independent country when

we leave and we will make our own decisions about those matters. Not

according to know that -- to the negotiating mandate. As I have said,

they can put all sorts of things in the negotiating guidelines, it does

not mean we have to agree with them. No doubt that is something we can

discuss in the context of a free trade agreement. If we get a free

trade agreement, that is very important for them as well as for

us, and we can talk about some of the things you have just mentioned.

Can you please leave a 20 without having repatriated full control of

migration, taxis and the law? I think we will have repatriated all

three of those things by the time of the next general election. How high

would you rate the chances of no deal, and does that prospect worry

you? I think the chances are we will get the deal, and I think the

chances are we will get a good deal, because that is in the interests of

both sides of this negotiation. But it is not the end of the world if we

do not get a deal. Most trade in the world is carried out under World

Trade Organisation rules. We would be perfectly OK if we traded with

the European Union, as with everybody else, under World Trade

Organisation rules. It is better to get the deal, and I think we will

get the deal, because it is in the interests of both. Let me ask you

about Gibraltar. You have campaigned in Gibraltar when the sovereignty

issue came up under the Tony Blair government. The EU says that Spain

should have a veto on whether any free-trade deal should apply to the

Rock. How should the British government replied to that? As it

has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand

by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this week, Andrew, another woman Prime

Minister Centre task force is halfway across the world to protect

another small group of British people against another

Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely clear that our current

woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to

Gibraltar as her predecessor did. This is not about Spain invading

Gibraltar, it is not even about sovereignty, it is about Spain

having a veto over whether any free-trade deal that the UK makes

with the EU should also apply to Gibraltar. On that issue, how should

the British government respond? The British government should show

resolve. It is not in the interests of Spain, really, to interfere with

free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 people who live in Spain working

Gibraltar. That is a very important Spanish interest, so I am very

confident that in the end, we will be able to look after all the

interests of Gibraltar, including free trade. Michael Howard, thank

you for joining us from Kent this morning.

Although sometimes it seems like everyone has forgotten,

there are things happening other than Brexit.

In less than five weeks' time, there will be a round of important

domestic elections and there's a lot up for grabs.

Local elections take place on the 4th of May in England,

In England, there are elections in 34 councils, with 2,370

The majority are county councils, usually areas of strength

Large cities where Labour usually fares better are not

Six regions of England will also hold elections for newly created

combined authority mayors, and there will be contests

for directly elected mayors, with voters in Manchester,

Liverpool and the West Midlands among those going to the polls.

In Scotland, every seat in all 32 councils are being contested,

many of them affected by boundary changes.

Since these seats were last contested, Labour lost all but one

Meanwhile, every seat in each of Wales' 22 councils

All but one was last elected in 2012 in what was a very

strong year for Labour, though independent

candidates currently hold a quarter of council seats.

According to the latest calculations by Plymouth

University Election Centre, the Tories are predicted

to increase their tally by 50 seats, despite being in government,

But the dramatic story in England looks to be with the other parties,

with the Lib-Dems possibly winning 100 seats, while Ukip

could be seeing a fall, predicted to lose 100 seats.

Though the proportional system usually makes big changes

less likely in Scotland, the SNP is predicted to increase

both the number of seats they hold, and the number

In Wales, Labour is defending a high water mark in support.

Last year's Welsh Assembly elections suggest the only way is down,

with all the parties making modest gains at Labour's expense.

Joining me now is the BBC's very own elections guru,

Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde.

Good to see you again. Let's start with England. How bad are the

selection is going to be for Labour? Labourer not defending a great deal

because this is for the most part rural England. The only control

three of the council they are defending and they are only

defending around 500 seats, I nearly a quarter are in one county, Durham.

Labour's position in the opinion polls is weakened over the last 12

months and if you compare the position in the opinion polls now

with where they were in the spring of 2013 when these seats in England

were last fought, we are talking about a 12 point swing from Labour

to conservative. The estimate of 50 losses may be somewhat optimistic

for Labour. Of the three council areas they control, two of them,

Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, could be lost, leaving labourer with

virtually a duck as far as council control is concerned in these

elections in England. In England, what would a Liberal Democrat

reserve urgently great? That is the big question. We have had this

picture since the EU referendum of the Liberal Democrats doing

extraordinarily well in some local by-elections, gaining seats that

they had not even fought before, and in other areas, doing no more than

treading water. We are expecting a Liberal Democrat skin because the

lost the lot -- the lost lots of ground when they were in coalition

with the Conservatives. It is uncertain. A patchy performance may

well be to their advantage. If they do well in some places and gain

seats, and elsewhere do not do terribly well and do not waste

votes, they may end up doing relatively well in seats, even if

the overall gaining votes is likely to be modest. The elections for

mayors, they are taking place in the Labour will that be a hefty

consolation prize for the Labour Party? It ought to be, on Teesside,

Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We are looking at one content very

closely, that is the contest for the mayor of the West Midlands. If you

look at what happened in the general election in 2015, labourer work nine

points ahead of the Conservatives in the West Midlands. If you look at

the swing since the general election, if you add that swing to

where we were two years ago, the West Midlands now looks like a draw.

Labour have to worry about a headline grabbing loss, and the West

Midlands contest. If they were to lose, that wooden crate -- that

would increase the pressure for their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince

people that they can turn his party's fortunes around, and in

truth at the moment, they are pretty dire. The West Midlands has

Birmingham as its heart. Chock-a-block with marginal seats.

It always has been. I always remember election night and marginal

seats in the West Midlands. Scotland, the SNP is assaulting

Labour's last remaining power base. The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it

take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP will gain control of Glasgow is

uncertain. If you look at what is happening in local government

by-elections let alone the opinion polls, in 2012, when these seats

were last fought, Labour did relatively well, only one percentage

point behind the SNP who were rather disappointed with the result

compared to other elections. No sign of that happening this time alone --

this time around. Polls put the SNP ahead. By-elections have found the

SNP advancing and Labour dropping by double digits. Labour are going to

lose everything they currently control in Scotland, the SNP will

become the dominant party, the question is how well they do. In

Scotland there is a Conservative revival going on. The Conservatives

did well in recent local government by-elections. At the moment, Labour

are expected to come third north of the border in the local elections,

repeating the third they suffered in the Holyrood elections last year. In

Wales, Labour is expecting to lose control of a number of councils.

They are the main party in 12 of 22 local authorities. How bad could it

be? We're expecting Labour to lose ground. In the opinion polls when

these seats were last fought, labourer in the high 40s. Now they

are not much above 30%. Cardiff could well join Glasgow was no

longer being a Labour stronghold. Look out for Newport. Some of the

South Wales councils that Labour control, Labour is

probably too but occasionally, Plaid Cymru surprises in this area. They

managed to win the Rhondda seat in the assembly elections. Jeremy

Corbyn has said he wants to be judged on proper elections, council

elections as opposed to opinion polls, but even if he does as badly

as John has been suggesting, does it affect his leadership? I think it

does on two counts. It will affect his own confidence. Anyone who is a

human being will be affected by this. He might go into his office

and be told by John McDonnell and others, stand firm, it is all right,

but it will affect his confidence and inevitably it contributes to a

sense that this is moving to some kind of denoument, at some point. In

other words, while I understand the argument that he has won twice in a

leadership contest, well, within 12 months, I wonder whether this can

carry on in a fixed term parliament, up until 2020, if it were to do so.

On two France, it will have some impact. I am not seeing it will lead

to his immediate departure, it will mark, but if these things are as

devastating as John suggests, it will have an impact. Tom, I'll be

looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That is the $64,000 question. It would

seem that we should be. One massive reason we're not having a general

election a time soon, apart from the fact that Theresa May does not

believe in these things, she believes in pressing on, it is

because Tory MPs in the South West who took the Lib Dem seats, they

were telling Number 10 they were worried they were going to lose

their seats back to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems never went away and

local government. They have got other campaigners and activists. It

looks credible that they will be the success story of the whole thing.

Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says this will be the most difficult

local elections his party will face before 2020. A bit of management of

expectations. It is unlikely to be a good time for Ukip. They are right

to manage expectations. The results will be horrible for Ukip. I agree

with Tom about the Lib Dem threat to the Tories. Talking to

some senior figures within the Tory party earlier this week, I was

picking up that they are worried about 30-40 general election seeds

being vulnerable to the Lib Dems because of the Labour collapse. I

would normally agree with Steve about the resilience of politicians,

the capability of withstanding repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is

not in the normal category. I think he is, in the sense that although he

get solace from winning leadership contest, anyone who leads a party

into the kind of, it is not going to be that vivid, because they are not

defending the key seats. If they were to win Birmingham, say, and get

slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland, it will undermine what is already a

fairly ambiguous sense of self-confidence. We need to leave it

there. Thank you, John Curtice. Well, with those elections

on the horizon, is Labour where it Former leader Ed Miliband

was on the Andrew Marr Show earlier and he explained

the challenge Labour faces It is easier for other parties,

if you are the Greens or the Liberal Democrats you're essentially

fishing in the 48% pool. If you are Ukip, you are

fishing in the 52% pool. Labour is trying to do

something much harder, which is to try and speak

for the whole country, and by the way, that is another part

of Our attack on Theresa May,

part of it is she's Ignoring the verdict

going into this, saying, let's overturn it, looks

like ignoring the 52%. By the way, there is more

that unites Remainers and Leavers than might first appear,

because they share common concerns about the way

the country is run. Joining me now is the Shadow Health

Secretary, Jon Ashworth. Welcome to the programme. Alastair

Campbell told me on the BBC on Thursday that he is fighting to

reverse the referendum result. Ed Miliband says that Remain needs to

accept the result, come to terms with it. Who is right? We have to

accept the referendum result. I campaigned passionately to remain in

the European Union. The city I represent, Leicester, voted narrowly

to remain in the European Union. Sadly the country did not. We cannot

overturn that and be like kinky nude, trying to demand the tide go

back out. We have to accept this democratic process. We all voted to

have a referendum when the relevant legislation came to Parliament. How

bad will the local elections before Labour? Let us see where we get to

on election night when I am sure I will be invited on to one of these

types of programmes... The election date, the following day. But it does

look like you will lose seats across the board in England, Scotland and

Wales. What did you make of what Steve Richards said about the impact

on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We have to win seats, we cannot fall

back on the scales suggested. No, your package was right, it tends to

be Tory areas, but generally, we have to be winning in

Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those types of places because they contain

a lot of the marginal constituencies that decide general elections. The

important places in the elections are towns like Beeston, towns you

have not heard of, but they are marginal towns in marginal swing

constituencies. We have to do well in them. We will see where we are on

election night but my pretty is to campaign hard in these areas over

the next few weeks. Even people who voted Labour in 2015, they prefer

Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't

that extraordinary? I have not seen that. I will look it up. It was you

Government. -- YouGov. It is important we win the trust of

people. You are not winning the trust of people who voted for you in

2015. We have to hold onto people who voted for us in 2015 and we have

to persuade people who voted for other parties to come to us. One of

the criticisms I have of the debate that goes on in the wider Labour

Party, do not misunderstand me, I am not making a criticism about an

individual, but the debate you see online suggests that if you want to

get people who voted Conservative to switch to Labour it is somehow a

betrayal of our principles, it was not. Justin Trudeau said

Conservative voters are our neighbours, our relatives. We have

to persuade people to switch from voting Conservative to voting Labour

as well as increasing our vote among nonvoters and Greens. It seems like

you have a mountain to climb and the mountain is Everest. Another poll, I

am not sure if you have seen this, in London, the Bastian of Labour,

the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is less popular than even Ukip's Paul

Nuttall. That is beyond extraordinary! I do not know about

that. The most recent set of elections in London was the mayoral

election where the Labour candidate city: won handsomely. He took the

seat of a conservative. We took that of a conservative. It was a year

ago. We did well then. You had an anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I

think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn, from memory. We have not got

elections in London but our elections are in the county areas

and the various mayoral elections... What about the West Midlands? In any

normal year, mid-term, as the opposition, Labour should win the

West Midlands. John Curtis says it is nip and tuck. It has always been

a swing region but we want to do well, of course. We want to turn out

a strong Labour vote in Dudley, Northampton, those sorts of places.

They are key constituencies in the general election. Does Labour look

like a government in waiting to you? What I would say is contrast where

we are to what the conservative garment is doing. I asked you about

Labour, you do not get to tell me about the Conservatives. Does it

look like a government in waiting to you? Today we are exposing the

Conservatives... Reminding people the Conservatives are breaking the

pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks so lots of elderly people waiting

longer in pain for hip replacements and cataract replacements. Yesterday

the Housing spokesperson John Healey was exposing the shortcomings in the

Help to Buy scheme. The education spokesperson has been campaigning

hard against the cuts to schools. Tom Watson has been campaigning hard

against some of the changes the Government want to introduce in

culture. The Shadow Cabinet are working hard to hold the

Government's feet to the fire. Does it look like a government in

waiting? Yes. It took you three times! There is a social care

crisis, schools funding issue, a huge issue for lots of areas, the

NHS has just got through the winter and is abandoning many of its

targets. You are 18 points behind in the polls. We have to work harder.

What can you do? The opinion polls are challenging but we are a great

Social Democratic Party of government. On Twitter today, lots

of Labour activists celebrating that the national minimum wage has been

in place for something like 16 years because we were in government. Look

of the sweeping progressive changes this country has benefited from, the

NHS, sure start centres, an assault on child poverty, the Labour Party

got itself in contention for government. I entirely accept the

polls do not make thrilling reading for Labour politicians on Sunday

morning, but it means people like me have to work harder because we are

part of something bigger than an individual, we are in the business

of changing things for the British people and if we do not do that, if

we do not focus on that, we are letting people down. Is Labour

preparing for an early election question Billy burqa? Reports in the

press of a war chest as macro for an early election? The general election

coordinator called for a general election when Theresa May became

Prime Minister. We are investing in staff and the organisational

capability we need. By the way, the Labour Party staff do brilliant

work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter having a go at them. They do

tremendous work. Whenever the election comes, they will be ready.

Jon Ashworth, thank you. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

in Northern Ireland. After a string of criticism,

the Secretary of State is intensifying the political

talks this week. I'll be asking the SDLP,

Ulster Unionists and Alliance what their expectations

are for the discussions. And with their thoughts on it all,

my guests of the day So, James Brokenshire,

the Secretary of State, is to intensify talks at Stormont

between the five main parties. It follows some stinging

criticism of his approach to the discussions so far,

but on Friday, he issued an invitation saying both

governments want an agreed agenda So what do the SDLP,

Ulster Unionists and Alliance want With me now are Colin McGrath

from the SDLP, the Ulster Unionist Party's Doug Beattie

and Stephen Farry from Welcome. Thank you for joining us.

Colin McGrath, is the fact that round table talks are now happening

a sign of actual process Almac progress? It is a move forward. We

did not have them in the past. The bilaterals and trilaterals

unimportant. Until you get round the table and understand what page

everyone is on, you can't make progress. We have asked for this for

about 2-3 weeks. We're glad to see them. They had an opportunity but it

will not resolve issues. Although it will help us work out where we are

and try to map the way forward. For round table discussions to be

meaningful, there need to be discussions and something to get

your teeth into. Is there any sign that will happen? You are right. I

was new to these intensive talks last few weeks and they were

absolute shambolic but no structure. Hopefully we will get structure. It

is incredibly important people put their own positions on the table and

give us a mechanism to talk about it. There are deals being done

behind closed doors and no-one knows where anyone stands. We need time

and space. So that political parties can manoeuvre and change positions.

At this moment in time, the trenches are being dug deeper. We won't go

anywhere unless thing radical comes up or some parties are willing to

change their stance. You're no stranger to this kind of intense

political process. You have been rendered what quite a few times

before. Do you get the sense that we are about to be where we maybe

should have been several months ago, frankly? In terms of a process, it

is a better structure. In terms of the prospects of the agreement, I am

not sure we're much further along on that after last few weeks. I have

questions and the bun fights -- bona fides. There could be other things

down the line well other parties gain an advantage. Is that an

admission on your part, that the three of you today represent the

smaller the five main parties, and your frankly a bit of a sideshow? We

collectively represent many hundreds of thousands of voters. That is a

sizeable section of Northern Ireland. Amongst the DUP and Sinn

Fein, there has to be a hunger for demolition being restored. What was

seen in the last week itself should be a massive wake-up call for the

parties. -- for devolution being restored. That means the ship could

seal strategic sources in the next 12 months. And in terms of Brexit,

from what the European Commission says, the toxin and the border in

Ireland will take place in the latter have of this year. We need to

have an Executive in place to make headway in that regard. Massive

amount of work to be done in a short period of time. Do you accept that

for the deal to be done, it has be done by the DUP and Sinn Fein? It

doesn't matter what you think your representatives think, what the

British and Northern Ireland governments think. It matters in the

end of the day that Sinn Fein and DUP agree. If they are not bought

into the process, there will be no deal. If they do not make a deal,

they will not be ideal. If so, they would have failed the people of

Northern Ireland. That does not make us a relevant in any way. We can

bring forward things can help them move position. If they want to be

moved. Absolutely. If they don't, they will not be moved. That is a

failing on their behalf. There was the issue of the flags, identity and

culture commission to give us time and space to discuss the issue of

the Irish language. There is a report coming out this month and a

full report at the end of the year. It gives people the chance to park

that issue of the Irish language for nine months until the commission

gives its point of view and then we can sit down and discuss those

findings. That is reasonable. But the difficulty is of course that

both Sinn Fein and the DUP now have read lines on the issue of the Irish

language. That does not help. It doesn't. That never helps. If you

keep digging the trench deeper, it doesn't help. That is where we are

now. That is why you need a reasonable stance. A reasonable

stands was to let the commission do its body of work. It is important.

Martin McGuinness is one of these people who set up the Fresh Start

Agreement. It is part of his legacy. You think it is a good or bad idea

that the DUP have introduced in that debate the issue of the military

covenant? Is a former soldier, I want to see Phil implementation of

the military college in Northern Ireland. It is here in Northern

Ireland. In the same way Sinn Fein have not gone into detail to tell us

what they want from an Irish language act, it is as if they are

using them as flags to fly and big trenches deeper. Colin McGrath, is

this a difficulty for the SDLP? You're pretty close to Sinn Fein

Bosman position on this. There needs to be a stand-alone Irish language

act, not a culture act or minority wine which act, which would embrace

Ulster Scots as well. Do you have a deadline on this as well? Sinn Fein

are closer to our opinion on this because we had the Private Members'

Bill that was in the Assembly to deliver the Irish language act. And

whenever the Programme for Government was introduced four

months ago, there was no mention of an Irish language act. We think it

is important. But what has happened with the Irish language act is it

has moved on. Language is important and having access to learning the

language is important, but it is about identity and expressing Irish

culture. We have had a fundamental dish respect shown to that in the

past number of months and years from the DUP. We want to address that.

Not to be up about it. We want them to share that journey and express

their culture. It should be implemented. You presumably, would

want, which are not, an Irish language act that encourages

Unionists, Protestants towards the Irish language and does not push

them away from it. That is what is happening at the moment. I would

like to see an Irish language where you don't have to have the

definition of unionist... That is not where we had at the moment. That

is where we want to move towards. If we had the Irish language act open

to everyone in the community to one, that would be much better. I would

not expect it would be a rush of Unionists wanting to learn the Irish

language, but if they wanted, it is the. It is a shared. This is one

island. Your party leader has said James Brokenshire is not an honest

broker in this process and is to be an external toxin so what it. What

is the chances of that happening between now and tomorrow? --

external Tok -- facilitator for talks.

It is a short window of opportunity. James Brokenshire said the whole

process is a short window. We have to look at the elements to do with

legacy. Is the Secretary of State from the British Cabinet the best

person to cheer these -- to be the chairperson of these? The British

Government has to step up and take bold decisions and a leap forward.

If you have a Secretary of State entrenched in being directed by the

Cabinet, is he the best person to arbitrate at the table? You're

shaking your head, Peter. I can see what the SDLP stances. But

he has been nominated by the Government of the UK. It doesn't

mean he is any good. But he has a job to do a day should be allowed to

do it. I do like the Gerry Adams as part of the bid discussions. But he

is the leader of Sinn Fein 's I have to get on with it and allow him to

be. Other parties need to do the same. We have a body of work to be

done. If we concern ourselves in the next few weeks with who will be the

chairperson of these talks, we will get nowhere. He has a job to do,

let's get on and let him do it. What people who are critical of James

Brokenshire would say is that Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein, has a mandate to

be represented at those talks. James Brokenshire has now mandate. -- has

no mandate. He is part of the Government elected into the UK. So

he does have a mandate. He is elected as the Secretary of State

Gerry Adams is a TD in the Irish Republic. Should he be involved in

Strand when talks? There is a number of different ways to look at this.

These people have a place to play. The issue is it is about the

independence of the chairperson. If you are the main person on one side

of the other, can independently be the chairperson? There is another

member who is as not independent as a Secretary of State, if you use

that yardstick. Your market is about the independence and can you make

decisions from the chair? Briefly, I want to talk about the deadline and

what it is. Do you think James Brokenshire can do the job that

needs to be done? He can, but he needs to address and reflect on some

of the issues, particularly in the last couple of months where people

have called into question the impartiality of the UK Government

and owned legacy issues. Can you understand where people are coming

from when they raise that issue? I understand some of the implications

and in some of the things said, particularly about the legacy of the

past and how that could be perceived with the role. But the important

thing is we need to get on with the talks because as you say, we have a

looming of some description in this month of April. Time is not on our

side in this regard. There is ready built consequences in terms of

finances in particular and that has resulted in people losing jobs. It

is critical and health services in crisis. There are major problems

reported last week. These things affect people's lives. So we hear

that it has been reported that the Secretary of State is trying to

reshape the process beginning tomorrow, where there will be added

structure and urgency to the process described as shambolic in recent

weeks. What you think the timescale is now? What is the new deadline,

since we failed to meet last Monday's deadline? In effect, he

wants to put legislation in parliament in the latter half of

April after Easter recess. Coming back on April 18? Tok 's could

happen in parallel with that legislative process. We have to bear

in mind, it is very technical, but we could lose close to ?1 billion in

terms of spending if we lose about two collect rates. It is a very

practical deadline in terms of financial situation. Not having our

Government as a luxury we cannot afford. Does the timescale make

sense as far as the Ulster Unionists are concerned? It does. We see the

next ten days as ten days of structured talks. And we hope for an

agreement we can buy into. We are looking for a reason to go into the

Executive. We're not looking for a reason to stay out. That is the

Ulster Unionist position, but the you believe the bona fides of the

other parties? Do you believe Gerry Adams wants devil is -- devolution

restored in Northern Ireland? If I am honest, I think he does not. He

puts his red line and because he thinks it will not be crossed by

other parties. Some of the things put into garish language, we could

never buy into it and he knows that. The DUP have thrown out the Armed

Forces Covenant and he knows that Sinn Fein cannot buy into that. I am

as they do not believe Sinn Fein do what that agreement. -- honestly do

not believe. The party is not yet a speaker itself, but when you spoke

to representatives of Sinn Fein, they are clear that they want to see

devolution. Colin McGrath. As well as political parties wanting

devolution restored, the most important people are the people in

communities on the ground. They came out in huge numbers to support

parties that said they wanted to form an Executive and come back in.

When people give you that mandate, you have an obligation to respond

and deliver what people have asked you to do. All the petty squabbling

that you can have up the hill and Stormont will not resonate with

people who have had health centres closed down and there is crisis

after crisis in the public sector. We look to them to sort it out in

the next ten days. In the meantime, you will know that there is a great

amount of public disquiet because MLAs are still being paid. You all

got a ?500 pay increase yesterday, which happened to be April Fools'

Day. People wonder, what in heaven 's name is going on? Can you

understand that? I absolutely can't. In many ways, I am ashamed that we

are not producing... You are ashamed? I am. Personally, as a

politician, I am ashamed that they are not producing what we need to be

bought Northern Ireland. But I went on a six-week interview to be an MLA

and then I was tested and elected. I worked from that moment onwards for

ten days without pay. And I am working hard as an MLA. Now, if they

turn round and say, stop might be, I have to go elsewhere. But my

constituency officers to say. Are you ashamed of what is going on?

Something has to give in that regard, particularly getting a pay

rise when people are losing jobs because of the budget.

Thank you very much indeed for that. We will have to leave it for now.

Let's hear what Lesley Carroll and Brian Feeney make of that.

Brian, what are your thoughts about the talks, kick-started tomorrow by

James Brokenshire, of who it is feared as a young -- it is fair to

say you're no great fan, what will happen with the process?

I don't think it will happen before Easter. The smaller parties want

round table talks. But as you said at the outset, there has to be

something at the table for people to discuss. So far, the papers

presented, particularly the one from James Brokenshire on legacy, was

just waffle and no use at all. The real business will be done behind

closed doors. Obviously, the smaller parties won't rent table tops to

hear what is going on and what the DUP and Sinn Fein are saying. --

smaller parties want round table talks. Sinn Fein's priority is not

establishing an Executive. It will not happen until the shopping list

has been addressed. Are you optimistic?

I am not overly optimistic. I would say that, from looking will.i.am,

the talks are shambolic. That is not because of James Brokenshire but

because we have had a shambolic Government for years. -- from

looking where I am. We have a set of Executive relationships were smaller

parties with maybe one or two ministers have not had the voice

that they thought they should have had at Executive level. There has

not been a relationship of respect and understanding of each other and

collaboration that makes Government within system work. In my view, the

talks are not shambolic because of James Brokenshire of the specific

issues of these talks because ball-mac but because the have built

a number of years in Government. You have been an observer of nationalism

and Republicanism for many years. Do you believe Sinn Fein can only once

Stormont to be restored? -- currently wants. They wanted

restored in a different way. They have said repeatedly there will not

be a return to the status quo or business as usual. They want

changes. These Sinn Fein red lines are for real? They are. But don't

forget, the eyes are fixed on Dublin and the fact there is a non-stable

Government there and it could be a general election in May or

September. They would like a position to be in Government... Not

with Gerry Adams as leader. Adams could well move in the next year.

There is lot of stuff happening. They don't want to be part of a

Northern Ireland team on Brexit. They want to do the negotiations of

Brexit through the Irish Government, not Stormont. Will talk more about

Brexit hopefully towards the end. Briefly, public disenchantment, we

had Doug Beattie say that his ashamed politicians are receiving

money and progress that 's to be made is not being made. People are

not happy with what they are seeing. -- that should be made. People are

not happy. The business community will not get corporation tax changes

they had hoped for by April, the Lord Chief Justice doctor about the

criminal just as system, changes the needed and not happening. And

Stephen referred to the committee voluntary sector. It is a disaster.

Thank you very much. Let's just pause for a moment

to take a look back at the political week in 60 seconds

with Gareth Gordon. With the stroke of a pen,

the United Kingdom took its first The Article 50 process is now under

way. In accordance with the wishes of the British people, the United

Kingdom is leaving the European Union.

But not everyone here is happy with the direction of travel.

This will be the biggest economic catastrophe in years. Our job is to

protect citizens and committees and businesses here. It will be

detrimental to the people of Ireland. We need to have parties

working together in the national interest and special staters for the

island of Ireland. still has confidence

in the Stormont talks process. The intensity of discussions are

stepped up with renewed intensity and for Chris. -- focus.

I would encourage James Brokenshire to be more assertive in top.

Perhaps the former Scottish First Minister is the man for the job.

If there is anything I could do to help the process, I would be very

willing to do so. Let's stick with Brexit.

We have mentioned that they are being the biggest economic

catastrophe since partition. It was a big week as far

as Brexit's concerned. Where does Northern Ireland stand in

the wider debate? There is no wider debate because there is not an

agreed was issued. And it will not be an agreed position because Sinn

Fein and the DUP will not agree with being part of a British delegation.

James Brokenshire is not even on the Cabinet committee supposed to be

dealing with Brexit. He does not have a seat on it. Northern Ireland

just does not figure in the UK's grander scheme. The British

Government brought this referendum in with no idea, no concern about

the consequences on the island of Ireland. They do not care.

Theresa May repeatedly refers to strengthening the union. That is her

mantra. Alex Salmond, we saw an extract of him there, said, if you

add a man from farmer, you should be worried about the direction of the

UK's travel on this direction. -- if you are a farmer from Antrim. Do you

agree? I do agree. There was a reference to

follow the Berlin Wall in comparison. It sounded dramatic at

the time, but perhaps he is not wrong. The implications for elation

ships here and across Europe and on these islands are significant enough

to be thinking in these terms. Theresa May wrote to Brussels and

David Davies Road to Stormont... There has been a lot of ink used in

last week. Not always with good results. You would think they would

have a great deal of care about what was in these letters. Theresa May

has been criticised for linking intelligence with negotiations and

also Gibraltar. Gibraltar as a whole other

So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes

Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?

And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,

To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford

by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.

Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will

it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can

predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning

with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not

mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.

Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in

business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why

we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under

Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you

do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up

lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you

used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get

back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a

mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in

this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places

like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the

country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the

Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic

areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well

which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part

as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has

taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is

fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are

discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if

they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.

If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your

vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of

representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we

have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124

seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality

of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very

effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is

not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,

that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it

not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the

debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is

something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people

the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually

produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the

foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the

Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social

democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I

do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party

together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own

decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you

saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a

consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing

could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is

moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in

2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look

at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax

changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to

?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate

threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from

currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,

freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax

credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an

impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two

children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched

the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit

changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third

or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The

Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It

is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I

have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith

Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody

should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the

state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by

better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly

less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have

to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her

other language and the role of the government and the state when she

sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government

conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she

says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not

what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would

not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a

much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of

progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when

George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they

were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this

government was going to meet the demand for public services when it

has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do

now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare

issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution

Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which

has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from

the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.

Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the

losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem

for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her

narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about

managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have

at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still

saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and

spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle

classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely

going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to

mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was

told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came

up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions

involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and

benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to

fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you

find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance

rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of

the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an

early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an

albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in

income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel

duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going

to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they

end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call

stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up

in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of

the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to

have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would

like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best

argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at

the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives

feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the

need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very

interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is

trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and

spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.

Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that

demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The

Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to

India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not

know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The

prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest

answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one

because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms

will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to

trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always

go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in

a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.

Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get

out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day

after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and

they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal

talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a

symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.

Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have

run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the

Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the

Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.

Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.

As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,