07/05/2017 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


07/05/2017

Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 07/05/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:38.:00:41.

The local election results made grim reading for Labour.

:00:42.:00:44.

With just a month to go until the general election,

:00:45.:00:48.

will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help

:00:49.:00:52.

The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,

:00:53.:00:57.

as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got

:00:58.:01:00.

But is there still really all to play for?

:01:01.:01:07.

And tonight we will find out who is the next

:01:08.:01:11.

President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -

:01:12.:01:15.

after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack

:01:16.:01:19.

The starting gun has been fired in the general election,

:01:20.:01:23.

but what issues will dominate the campaign here?

:01:24.:01:25.

We'll hear from the Green Party and People Before Profit.

:01:26.:01:27.

Join me in half an hour. potential impact in marginals next

:01:28.:01:32.

month. If Ukip support continues to evaporate...

:01:33.:01:38.

And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready

:01:39.:01:41.

to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic

:01:42.:01:45.

focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,

:01:46.:01:48.

and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May

:01:49.:01:50.

It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

:01:51.:01:56.

So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental

:01:57.:02:03.

health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,

:02:04.:02:06.

and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health

:02:07.:02:12.

treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be

:02:13.:02:14.

Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking

:02:15.:02:17.

There is a lot of new money going into it.

:02:18.:02:25.

In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion

:02:26.:02:28.

Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it

:02:29.:02:32.

No, it is new money going into the NHS

:02:33.:02:35.

It's not just of course money, it's having the people

:02:36.:02:42.

who deliver these jobs, which is why we need

:02:43.:02:44.

Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health

:02:45.:02:49.

This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,

:02:50.:02:52.

promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.

:02:53.:03:01.

Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the

:03:02.:03:07.

campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the

:03:08.:03:11.

campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin

:03:12.:03:16.

air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,

:03:17.:03:21.

and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no

:03:22.:03:25.

additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We

:03:26.:03:32.

know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap

:03:33.:03:36.

which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not

:03:37.:03:40.

disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the

:03:41.:03:44.

political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,

:03:45.:03:53.

rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce

:03:54.:03:58.

by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the

:03:59.:04:03.

number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are

:04:04.:04:07.

without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.

:04:08.:04:11.

Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage

:04:12.:04:21.

point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is

:04:22.:04:27.

that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but

:04:28.:04:35.

over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the

:04:36.:04:39.

younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is

:04:40.:04:45.

the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery

:04:46.:04:49.

plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,

:04:50.:04:55.

it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income

:04:56.:04:59.

tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average

:05:00.:05:04.

British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than

:05:05.:05:09.

two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end

:05:10.:05:14.

of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS

:05:15.:05:21.

and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance

:05:22.:05:26.

system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the

:05:27.:05:31.

former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said

:05:32.:05:35.

clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the

:05:36.:05:39.

first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.

:05:40.:05:46.

Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on

:05:47.:05:49.

average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people

:05:50.:05:53.

who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have

:05:54.:06:00.

been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are

:06:01.:06:05.

going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health

:06:06.:06:09.

care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen

:06:10.:06:15.

by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?

:06:16.:06:19.

Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax

:06:20.:06:23.

threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition

:06:24.:06:29.

increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by

:06:30.:06:35.

about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose

:06:36.:06:40.

that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask

:06:41.:06:44.

ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the

:06:45.:06:48.

average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that

:06:49.:06:54.

when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps

:06:55.:06:59.

suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two

:07:00.:07:04.

cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a

:07:05.:07:09.

very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told

:07:10.:07:13.

that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They

:07:14.:07:18.

then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent

:07:19.:07:22.

waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump

:07:23.:07:26.

the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to

:07:27.:07:31.

interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on

:07:32.:07:38.

time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance

:07:39.:07:41.

to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to

:07:42.:07:45.

double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do

:07:46.:07:52.

you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on

:07:53.:07:56.

average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country

:07:57.:08:00.

are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the

:08:01.:08:05.

moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it

:08:06.:08:12.

as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government

:08:13.:08:17.

not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the

:08:18.:08:21.

stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these

:08:22.:08:25.

critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the

:08:26.:08:29.

Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to

:08:30.:08:32.

provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining

:08:33.:08:34.

us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious

:08:35.:08:38.

to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,

:08:39.:08:42.

whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say

:08:43.:08:46.

there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a

:08:47.:08:48.

landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set

:08:49.:08:51.

of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give

:08:52.:08:53.

us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with

:08:54.:08:57.

a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock

:08:58.:09:00.

on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.

:09:01.:09:04.

Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local

:09:05.:09:09.

elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing

:09:10.:09:14.

from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,

:09:15.:09:16.

I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm

:09:17.:09:20.

going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered

:09:21.:09:23.

successes for the Tories. But with most councils

:09:24.:09:25.

only getting started, there was plenty of action

:09:26.:09:26.

still to come. It's not quite the night

:09:27.:09:32.

of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news

:09:33.:09:34.

in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold

:09:35.:09:36.

Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,

:09:37.:09:40.

four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward

:09:41.:09:46.

and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being

:09:47.:09:49.

in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself

:09:50.:09:54.

for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,

:09:55.:10:00.

as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,

:10:01.:10:06.

there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people

:10:07.:10:09.

think the election's just I think leave it

:10:10.:10:12.

like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.

:10:13.:10:15.

This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here

:10:16.:10:18.

for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed

:10:19.:10:22.

for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip

:10:23.:10:27.

winning a single seat. The joke going around

:10:28.:10:39.

Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives

:10:40.:10:45.

is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand

:10:46.:10:48.

and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably

:10:49.:10:51.

going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts

:10:52.:10:57.

backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be

:10:58.:11:00.

totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people

:11:01.:11:02.

in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,

:11:03.:11:05.

but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.

:11:06.:11:08.

Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones

:11:09.:11:12.

putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing

:11:13.:11:16.

their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats

:11:17.:11:19.

and seven councils. If the result is what these

:11:20.:11:23.

results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word

:11:24.:11:27.

for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics

:11:28.:11:32.

- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?

:11:33.:11:40.

Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.

:11:41.:11:45.

We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another

:11:46.:11:47.

five years of this. How's it been for you today?

:11:48.:11:49.

Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,

:11:50.:11:52.

I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're

:11:53.:11:55.

disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,

:11:56.:11:59.

but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be

:12:00.:12:01.

wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,

:12:02.:12:07.

not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,

:12:08.:12:09.

the control of a whole council came The section of England

:12:10.:12:17.

in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England

:12:18.:12:26.

that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,

:12:27.:12:30.

do you just have election results The answer is if that's still

:12:31.:12:33.

happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.

:12:34.:12:39.

Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much

:12:40.:12:41.

but I have one here. With the introduction

:12:42.:12:46.

of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham

:12:47.:12:49.

became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came

:12:50.:12:52.

to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second

:12:53.:12:55.

because I've got some I used to present news,

:12:56.:13:01.

as you probably know. I used to present BBC

:13:02.:13:04.

Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,

:13:05.:13:06.

ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -

:13:07.:13:09.

presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day

:13:10.:13:15.

at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government

:13:16.:13:22.

was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives

:13:23.:13:26.

with their best local So another election results

:13:27.:13:28.

day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it

:13:29.:13:33.

all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.

:13:34.:13:39.

Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,

:13:40.:13:51.

and what they might mean for the wider fortunes

:13:52.:13:53.

In England, there were elections for 34 councils.

:13:54.:14:05.

The Conservatives took control of ten of them,

:14:06.:14:07.

gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained

:14:08.:14:09.

While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,

:14:10.:14:14.

and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.

:14:15.:14:20.

In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing

:14:21.:14:22.

a third of their seats, and control of three councils -

:14:23.:14:25.

while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.

:14:26.:14:27.

In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,

:14:28.:14:31.

There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party

:14:32.:14:37.

after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,

:14:38.:14:39.

although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.

:14:40.:14:46.

We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.

:14:47.:14:49.

You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.

:14:50.:14:53.

In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the

:14:54.:15:06.

general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May

:15:07.:15:11.

wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning

:15:12.:15:14.

a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local

:15:15.:15:19.

election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win

:15:20.:15:22.

the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course

:15:23.:15:27.

people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were

:15:28.:15:30.

double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas

:15:31.:15:35.

the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point

:15:36.:15:43.

Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a

:15:44.:15:44.

landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in

:15:45.:15:47.

England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative

:15:48.:15:51.

lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that

:15:52.:15:57.

she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about

:15:58.:16:01.

who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but

:16:02.:16:05.

there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves

:16:06.:16:08.

her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The

:16:09.:16:13.

local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is

:16:14.:16:17.

going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most

:16:18.:16:21.

prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep

:16:22.:16:26.

the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary

:16:27.:16:30.

Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election

:16:31.:16:34.

results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I

:16:35.:16:38.

looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the

:16:39.:16:44.

general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both

:16:45.:16:49.

local elections in these years, but come the general election, they

:16:50.:16:52.

added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen

:16:53.:16:57.

again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.

:16:58.:17:01.

Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local

:17:02.:17:05.

elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in

:17:06.:17:11.

1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.

:17:12.:17:16.

In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --

:17:17.:17:22.

their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition

:17:23.:17:25.

campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of

:17:26.:17:29.

Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth

:17:30.:17:33.

noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip

:17:34.:17:38.

voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to

:17:39.:17:41.

increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,

:17:42.:17:44.

the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the

:17:45.:17:50.

party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the

:17:51.:17:56.

Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we

:17:57.:18:00.

should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in

:18:01.:18:06.

the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper

:18:07.:18:11.

forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is

:18:12.:18:13.

producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum

:18:14.:18:17.

has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,

:18:18.:18:23.

the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do

:18:24.:18:30.

you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially

:18:31.:18:33.

disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional

:18:34.:18:36.

question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been

:18:37.:18:41.

faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively

:18:42.:18:45.

disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south

:18:46.:18:50.

of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly

:18:51.:18:53.

the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the

:18:54.:18:58.

leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they

:18:59.:19:03.

will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the

:19:04.:19:07.

remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa

:19:08.:19:17.

May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote

:19:18.:19:21.

has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining

:19:22.:19:29.

us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I

:19:30.:19:33.

wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced

:19:34.:19:38.

fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the

:19:39.:19:45.

centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.

:19:46.:19:49.

That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the

:19:50.:19:54.

argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,

:19:55.:19:59.

Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of

:20:00.:20:04.

the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue

:20:05.:20:14.

vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the

:20:15.:20:20.

spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like

:20:21.:20:24.

Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British

:20:25.:20:27.

politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact

:20:28.:20:31.

what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not

:20:32.:20:36.

something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,

:20:37.:20:39.

when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,

:20:40.:20:45.

dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad

:20:46.:20:49.

spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain

:20:50.:20:54.

have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like

:20:55.:20:58.

they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too

:20:59.:21:01.

small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest

:21:02.:21:06.

thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has

:21:07.:21:11.

limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We

:21:12.:21:17.

don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is

:21:18.:21:21.

some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a

:21:22.:21:25.

realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.

:21:26.:21:30.

Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the

:21:31.:21:33.

disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been

:21:34.:21:36.

saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They

:21:37.:21:41.

still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have

:21:42.:21:45.

picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a

:21:46.:21:49.

strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's

:21:50.:21:53.

very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel

:21:54.:21:57.

that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job

:21:58.:22:00.

done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour

:22:01.:22:05.

Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are

:22:06.:22:11.

shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has

:22:12.:22:15.

produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was

:22:16.:22:20.

called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the

:22:21.:22:24.

Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off

:22:25.:22:28.

editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party

:22:29.:22:34.

united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over

:22:35.:22:39.

Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David

:22:40.:22:42.

Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for

:22:43.:22:47.

this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because

:22:48.:22:51.

it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to

:22:52.:22:54.

take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at

:22:55.:23:01.

a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a

:23:02.:23:05.

united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a

:23:06.:23:07.

long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big

:23:08.:23:10.

campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no

:23:11.:23:12.

income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -

:23:13.:23:15.

which of course means those earning more than that could

:23:16.:23:18.

face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John

:23:19.:23:20.

McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone

:23:21.:23:29.

earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an

:23:30.:23:34.

increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.

:23:35.:23:37.

For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more

:23:38.:23:42.

to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be

:23:43.:23:46.

a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a

:23:47.:23:53.

society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.

:23:54.:23:55.

We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.

:23:56.:24:00.

Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be

:24:01.:24:07.

paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.

:24:08.:24:11.

But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would

:24:12.:24:18.

not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for

:24:19.:24:25.

the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners

:24:26.:24:28.

won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a

:24:29.:24:32.

policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell

:24:33.:24:36.

also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%

:24:37.:24:43.

of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying

:24:44.:24:48.

to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,

:24:49.:24:55.

you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's

:24:56.:24:58.

manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out

:24:59.:25:03.

and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set

:25:04.:25:13.

out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he

:25:14.:25:16.

is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis

:25:17.:25:21.

just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The

:25:22.:25:27.

polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was

:25:28.:25:32.

it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between

:25:33.:25:38.

now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.

:25:39.:25:43.

Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their

:25:44.:25:47.

share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way

:25:48.:25:57.

is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I

:25:58.:26:04.

satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is

:26:05.:26:08.

a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections

:26:09.:26:13.

are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to

:26:14.:26:17.

put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle

:26:18.:26:22.

income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You

:26:23.:26:27.

lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The

:26:28.:26:33.

journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an

:26:34.:26:36.

easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are

:26:37.:26:41.

comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the

:26:42.:26:45.

terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a

:26:46.:26:49.

challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are

:26:50.:26:53.

determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter

:26:54.:26:56.

policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took

:26:57.:27:04.

place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --

:27:05.:27:10.

took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of

:27:11.:27:15.

British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm

:27:16.:27:20.

election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after

:27:21.:27:25.

his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of

:27:26.:27:31.

mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all

:27:32.:27:35.

of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I

:27:36.:27:40.

am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused

:27:41.:27:45.

on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies

:27:46.:27:49.

like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum

:27:50.:27:55.

wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of

:27:56.:28:00.

earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and

:28:01.:28:04.

funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by

:28:05.:28:08.

the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives

:28:09.:28:13.

of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the

:28:14.:28:19.

few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to

:28:20.:28:23.

be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.

:28:24.:28:27.

You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy

:28:28.:28:31.

Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate

:28:32.:28:37.

his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview

:28:38.:28:41.

straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped

:28:42.:28:44.

him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the

:28:45.:28:51.

reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in

:28:52.:28:57.

Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into

:28:58.:29:00.

celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge

:29:01.:29:04.

him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to

:29:05.:29:07.

travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed

:29:08.:29:11.

on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?

:29:12.:29:17.

Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time

:29:18.:29:21.

with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy

:29:22.:29:28.

Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am

:29:29.:29:35.

convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat

:29:36.:29:40.

on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He

:29:41.:29:45.

said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour

:29:46.:29:50.

while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the

:29:51.:29:56.

doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my

:29:57.:30:00.

constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single

:30:01.:30:04.

voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest

:30:05.:30:10.

thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that

:30:11.:30:14.

people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even

:30:15.:30:19.

talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy

:30:20.:30:24.

Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum

:30:25.:30:30.

wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and

:30:31.:30:33.

sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under

:30:34.:30:37.

this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,

:30:38.:30:40.

but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,

:30:41.:30:46.

perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour

:30:47.:30:50.

leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on

:30:51.:30:53.

the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead

:30:54.:30:58.

the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won

:30:59.:31:03.

the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more

:31:04.:31:09.

might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of

:31:10.:31:13.

the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four

:31:14.:31:17.

weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see

:31:18.:31:22.

further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to

:31:23.:31:26.

Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my

:31:27.:31:30.

constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And

:31:31.:31:34.

also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She

:31:35.:31:38.

should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.

:31:39.:31:44.

Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary

:31:45.:31:49.

people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D

:31:50.:32:02.

and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do

:32:03.:32:08.

that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living

:32:09.:32:12.

standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the

:32:13.:32:15.

living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We

:32:16.:32:20.

have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you

:32:21.:32:22.

for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's

:32:23.:32:25.

elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party

:32:26.:32:31.

won its best ever local government performance,

:32:32.:32:33.

but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote

:32:34.:32:35.

plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously

:32:36.:32:38.

benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for

:32:39.:32:42.

the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now

:32:43.:32:44.

by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,

:32:45.:32:46.

Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip

:32:47.:32:57.

finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the

:32:58.:33:01.

Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't

:33:02.:33:07.

it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go

:33:08.:33:13.

out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney

:33:14.:33:18.

war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from

:33:19.:33:21.

Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime

:33:22.:33:25.

Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one

:33:26.:33:29.

of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really

:33:30.:33:35.

looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a

:33:36.:33:38.

lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our

:33:39.:33:43.

part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the

:33:44.:33:49.

moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to

:33:50.:33:54.

shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing

:33:55.:33:58.

on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their

:33:59.:34:01.

minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime

:34:02.:34:07.

Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong

:34:08.:34:11.

in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back

:34:12.:34:17.

her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last

:34:18.:34:23.

week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to

:34:24.:34:27.

bully the British government, in those circumstances the British

:34:28.:34:29.

people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the

:34:30.:34:35.

Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician

:34:36.:34:39.

in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for

:34:40.:34:43.

your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters

:34:44.:34:47.

are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in

:34:48.:34:52.

the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.

:34:53.:34:56.

There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that

:34:57.:35:01.

once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit

:35:02.:35:06.

negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the

:35:07.:35:11.

focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of

:35:12.:35:15.

policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.

:35:16.:35:21.

The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap

:35:22.:35:25.

the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health

:35:26.:35:28.

service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with

:35:29.:35:33.

the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the

:35:34.:35:35.

the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of

:35:36.:35:38.

what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces

:35:39.:35:42.

beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not

:35:43.:35:46.

Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that

:35:47.:35:52.

time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's

:35:53.:35:57.

fault. We have two become more professional than we have been

:35:58.:36:00.

recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or

:36:01.:36:05.

another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very

:36:06.:36:09.

rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other

:36:10.:36:13.

promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not

:36:14.:36:17.

until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not

:36:18.:36:21.

have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this

:36:22.:36:27.

current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most

:36:28.:36:33.

senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --

:36:34.:36:41.

no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I

:36:42.:36:45.

believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is

:36:46.:36:50.

shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital

:36:51.:37:01.

mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto

:37:02.:37:05.

launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but

:37:06.:37:12.

also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity

:37:13.:37:17.

bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies

:37:18.:37:25.

that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.

:37:26.:37:29.

Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory

:37:30.:37:34.

advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that

:37:35.:37:39.

Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?

:37:40.:37:43.

It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and

:37:44.:37:49.

have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.

:37:50.:37:55.

When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.

:37:56.:37:59.

Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.

:38:00.:38:03.

It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:38:04.:38:05.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:06.:38:08.

Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French

:38:09.:38:17.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:38:18.:38:19.

With just under five weeks to polling day,

:38:20.:38:21.

will the election be all about Brexit

:38:22.:38:23.

or will other issues start to dominate the agenda?

:38:24.:38:26.

And what are the main concerns of our smaller parties?

:38:27.:38:29.

We'll hear from the Green Party and People Before Profit

:38:30.:38:31.

Plus, in another election, the French head to the polls

:38:32.:38:37.

in the second and decisive round in the Presidential election.

:38:38.:38:40.

What impact will the new President have on the rest of Europe?

:38:41.:38:43.

And with their thoughts on that and more, my guests of the day

:38:44.:38:46.

and public affairs consultant Anna Mercer.

:38:47.:38:57.

At the last Westminster election, issues like abortion,

:38:58.:38:59.

austerity and same sex marriage dominated a lot of the campaign.

:39:00.:39:03.

Some argued that sense of 'normality' helped

:39:04.:39:05.

the Green Party and People Before Profit perform well.

:39:06.:39:09.

But with Brexit dominating the campaign and stalemate

:39:10.:39:11.

at Stormont, can they repeat the success of two years ago?

:39:12.:39:14.

Joining me now are the Green Party's Georgina Milne

:39:15.:39:16.

and Gerry Carroll from People Before Profit -

:39:17.:39:18.

and, by the way, we did invite the TUV

:39:19.:39:21.

to take part in today's discussion,

:39:22.:39:23.

George, the first of all, you campaign did not get off to the best

:39:24.:39:36.

of starts, arguably, as your leader seemed to tie himself in knots at

:39:37.:39:39.

the prospect of a packed with Andy Brexit parties. Have you managed to

:39:40.:39:46.

put that behind you? I would disagree that the dog of packed boys

:39:47.:39:51.

in anyway negative. I think discussing the possibility of April

:39:52.:39:55.

remain alliance was the just and democratic thing to do. Whenever

:39:56.:39:58.

that came back to the Green party Executive, we decided a pact would

:39:59.:40:01.

not be right for us but I think we did the right thing in considering

:40:02.:40:05.

it and we just think it is unfortunate that some parties did

:40:06.:40:09.

try to sectarian eyes the issue. Any chance of a pact came to a halt when

:40:10.:40:13.

the SDLP decided to select its sitting LP as its candidate in south

:40:14.:40:18.

Belfast. Did you really think that he would step aside for Claire

:40:19.:40:21.

Bailey when he had polled four times her vote to Mike years ago? That is

:40:22.:40:27.

what Steve Matthew suggested. I think regarding the pact in south

:40:28.:40:31.

Belfast, one of the most difficult issues for the Green Party, with a

:40:32.:40:38.

long and unbroken record of championing LGBT and women's rights,

:40:39.:40:43.

would be asking Green supporters to get behind a candidate who did not

:40:44.:40:47.

see those issues are the same way the Green Party would. Alistair

:40:48.:40:51.

MacDonald accused the Green Party of scratching around looking for

:40:52.:40:54.

relevance at the time of all of the discussion about pact in south

:40:55.:40:58.

Belfast. Did that hurt? I do not think it hurt. It was the right

:40:59.:41:00.

thing to do to consider it. The Green Party have long been champions

:41:01.:41:04.

of grassroots democracy and we did the right thing in considering the

:41:05.:41:08.

pack. However, we did come to the conclusion it would not work for us

:41:09.:41:11.

and this time around, we are very pleased to be fielding seven

:41:12.:41:13.

candidates in the election. So what are the main issues for

:41:14.:41:28.

those seven candidates? Undoubtedly Brexit is a key, critical priority

:41:29.:41:30.

issue. Make no mistake, Tory austerity and equality will be key

:41:31.:41:32.

issues on the agenda and key issues that the Green Party will be

:41:33.:41:35.

campaigning on. A very powerful, positive and strong message. The

:41:36.:41:38.

issues. Brexit, equality and social justice issues will be on

:41:39.:41:41.

everybody's lips. What about those moral issues that

:41:42.:41:45.

you can bid for strong Lyon on previous elections, they followed by

:41:46.:41:49.

the wayside? Become an absolutely not, that dive into quality, which

:41:50.:41:52.

the Green Party have long been champions of. We are proud to listen

:41:53.:41:58.

to women, stand up for 's rights, LGBT rates, marriage equality. We

:41:59.:42:01.

were the first party to bring marriage equality to the Assembly

:42:02.:42:05.

and will not let that poll by the wayside. The Greens are running

:42:06.:42:10.

seven candidates. So far, People Before Profit have announced two. Is

:42:11.:42:15.

that it is far as you're concerned? We are on two at the minute and we

:42:16.:42:21.

are meeting in the next few days to confirm where we are standing and

:42:22.:42:23.

the full list of candidates will be decided. It is worth seeing, we have

:42:24.:42:27.

had the elections in a year. We are a small party without corporate

:42:28.:42:33.

donations, we do not receive donations from rich Irish-American

:42:34.:42:35.

capitalists and the elections in a year is tough for a party with

:42:36.:42:39.

limited resources. We will be throwing herself into this election

:42:40.:42:43.

and providing an alternative, but there may be an election, and

:42:44.:42:46.

Assembly election, in October as well and that puts pressure on small

:42:47.:42:49.

parties who do not have the resources of some other big parties

:42:50.:42:53.

but we are up for standing in this election. Georgina has told us what

:42:54.:42:57.

the key issues of the Green Party. What are the big issues for People

:42:58.:43:03.

Before Profit? What will you be discussing with potential voters on

:43:04.:43:06.

the doorsteps? A lot of things. Talking about Brexit, they should

:43:07.:43:08.

not be a hard border into limited and Theresa May should not be

:43:09.:43:13.

allowed to use Brexit as a way to advance her agenda, to further boost

:43:14.:43:16.

on taxes for corporations, to attack workers' rights and attack other

:43:17.:43:23.

things. Also this is about austerity, as Georgina said. How

:43:24.:43:27.

austerity has devastated communities and public services. We will be

:43:28.:43:30.

providing an alternative voice in the selection that is going to stand

:43:31.:43:34.

up for voters, communities and public services. I said quite

:43:35.:43:38.

clearly, they are cutting taxes for corporations and are trying to kill

:43:39.:43:41.

off that there is no money for public services. It is a question

:43:42.:43:46.

about priorities and what is more important, cutting taxes for the

:43:47.:43:48.

rich and corporations are putting money into health and education.

:43:49.:43:52.

Also the issue of mental health crisis in our society. We will be

:43:53.:43:55.

providing a strong message on this in our election. Their prime Minster

:43:56.:44:00.

fundamentally citizens about Brexit. It is likely to come up the

:44:01.:44:04.

doorsteps, as far as People Before Profit are concerned, if for no

:44:05.:44:08.

other reason than because you prepared to flip-flop dramatically.

:44:09.:44:11.

First, you campaigned for Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK to

:44:12.:44:15.

leave the EU and now plan to fight them on an anti-Tory Brexit

:44:16.:44:19.

platform. What precisely is People Before Profit's message on Brexit?

:44:20.:44:27.

Are you pro-Brexit or Andy Brexit? We are against a Tory Brexit.

:44:28.:44:30.

Theresa May is using it to trying to advance the interests of the British

:44:31.:44:33.

elite, the rich and the wealthy in society. What does that actually

:44:34.:44:37.

mean? Never mind Tory Brexit, what is your position on Brexit? You said

:44:38.:44:41.

it was a good idea and campaigned for it, along with elements on the

:44:42.:44:44.

Tory party. It is now happening and you do not like the she bothered? We

:44:45.:44:52.

are for leaving the EU and had a unique position which was arguing

:44:53.:44:55.

that the EU has created austerity for people in Ireland, people in

:44:56.:44:58.

Greece. That was our critique and our opposition to the EU. Regardless

:44:59.:45:02.

of whether people go to remain relief in the EU, the question is

:45:03.:45:05.

are people going to stand up against the hard border, are against Theresa

:45:06.:45:10.

May's attacks and her plans to implement further tax cuts for

:45:11.:45:14.

corporation? We are standing against that and it is worth seeing that

:45:15.:45:17.

David Cameron would have pursued that, a stronger case for that, if

:45:18.:45:21.

he had added weight and got to remain on board. In this election,

:45:22.:45:25.

we are putting forward an anti-Tory Brexit argument and arguing against

:45:26.:45:28.

what the Tories are pushing. Do you still think Brexit is a good idea? I

:45:29.:45:34.

think leaving the European Union was the correct decision but what has to

:45:35.:45:37.

happen now is people should be putting forward a strong argument

:45:38.:45:39.

against a Tory Brexit. That is what the Tories are trying to do. Theresa

:45:40.:45:44.

May is trying to shake Brexit in the interests of the capitalists and

:45:45.:45:49.

ruling elite. Your gritters also, always said that if you put or

:45:50.:45:53.

delete it could be had Brexit, but despite those warnings, he said it

:45:54.:45:55.

was a good idea and people voted for it. You said the vote should be

:45:56.:45:58.

respected and you now seem to be going back on that? We are very

:45:59.:46:01.

clear. We were always against the Tory Brexit. We were clear in the

:46:02.:46:04.

referendum campaign that we were against the Tory Brexit and what the

:46:05.:46:10.

Tory party were pursuing. We were clear enough and against what they

:46:11.:46:13.

are trying to do now. Stand up against a hard border, stand up

:46:14.:46:15.

against the austerity agenda and we can still do that whilst critiquing

:46:16.:46:20.

the EU policies and how the EU has actually implemented the policies on

:46:21.:46:25.

the rich and only all across Europe and devastated austerity for people

:46:26.:46:29.

in Ireland and Greece. We want to see a different kind of Europe as

:46:30.:46:32.

that is not going to come from the EU bureaucrats or the jury party.

:46:33.:46:38.

Georgina, you're also a candidate. -- the Tory party. Is the issue of

:46:39.:46:42.

Brexit coming up? Are people concerned from either side of the

:46:43.:46:46.

fence, depending how they voted and copy the things unfolding, I've

:46:47.:46:49.

concerned that what might lie ahead in the next couple of years?

:46:50.:46:53.

Absolutely. When David Cameron and the Tory Government machine brought

:46:54.:46:57.

us to the polls last year for this referendum, nobody knew what we were

:46:58.:47:00.

voting for. For that reason, the Green Party are campaigning for a

:47:01.:47:04.

referendum on the terms of the final Brexit deal. That will essentially

:47:05.:47:12.

mean that all people can have their say on what their vision of Brexit

:47:13.:47:15.

is, as opposed to blindly following Theresa May and the Tory vision of a

:47:16.:47:17.

hard Brexit said she is hell-bent on. I wonder how much common ground

:47:18.:47:21.

there is between your party and People Before Profit. He says he

:47:22.:47:23.

does not want a Theresa May Stell Brexit. You do not want a Theresa

:47:24.:47:28.

May style Brexit either. Though Jerry Carroll says he still thinks

:47:29.:47:32.

we should leave the EU, you think, despite not wanting a hard Brexit,

:47:33.:47:36.

we need to find some alternative way. It is very confusing for

:47:37.:47:40.

people, let's be honest. Absolutely. The Green Party campaigned to remain

:47:41.:47:43.

and we would very much like to see what, -- like to see, whatever

:47:44.:47:48.

happens, that people get their final say on that deal. A hard border

:47:49.:47:52.

would be disastrous for the communities that live around that

:47:53.:47:56.

and for the agricultural industry. I want a quick word about Stormont,

:47:57.:47:59.

because this is a Westminster general election. Jerry, you were

:48:00.:48:03.

returned as an MLA at the last Assembly election a few short weeks

:48:04.:48:06.

ago, it has to be said. We may have another before too long, perhaps in

:48:07.:48:11.

the autumn. Is it very, very hard for the small parties to find

:48:12.:48:15.

relevance in a general election, when Stormont is in stalemate?

:48:16.:48:20.

Obviously it is difficult circumstances but in terms of the

:48:21.:48:23.

Westminster election, we can provide an alternative voice. We can be a

:48:24.:48:26.

voice for the voiceless and can represent the millions and not the

:48:27.:48:30.

millionaires in this election. By raising these issues, but not

:48:31.:48:34.

seriously by winning there? It is possible. People did not predict the

:48:35.:48:39.

EU referendum... It is possible but not probable. Polls cannot be

:48:40.:48:43.

everything. What people are looking for is an alternative voice. In this

:48:44.:48:47.

election, I would be the only viable candidate.

:48:48.:48:50.

If you want your seat, would you take it? I would. How relevant is

:48:51.:48:55.

the politics of the Green Party during a general election, where

:48:56.:49:03.

you're running seven candidates, it is not impossible but unlikely that

:49:04.:49:05.

you will win a Westminster seat. Let's be clear. We are running seven

:49:06.:49:09.

candidates, four of whom are women. Over 50% of our poster presenters

:49:10.:49:13.

will be women and we are open other parties will take early. The Green

:49:14.:49:17.

Party have never been in a better position regarding money, resources,

:49:18.:49:20.

people to contest a general election. Our vote share has

:49:21.:49:23.

increased the last number of elections and we are optimistic and

:49:24.:49:28.

hopeful. We need to leave it there. Thank you both for coming in

:49:29.:49:30.

joiners. -- coming into joiners. Let's hear from our guests

:49:31.:49:34.

of the day, Professor Rick Wilford

:49:35.:49:36.

and Anna Mercer. Both parties confident

:49:37.:49:37.

of continued growth, It is a difficult time. They will

:49:38.:49:48.

have some impact, obviously. If only in shipping the agenda of the

:49:49.:49:52.

narrative, if you like, of the election campaign. There is quite a

:49:53.:49:54.

lot of common ground between the Green Party and People Before Profit

:49:55.:49:57.

on a number of issues, but electorally, I think they are going

:49:58.:50:01.

to be squeezed, not least because the unionist electorate has been

:50:02.:50:04.

absolutely galvanised for this election by the outcome of the

:50:05.:50:09.

Assembly election back in March. I suspect that this election is going

:50:10.:50:15.

to be, if anything, even more pro-sectarian than the person that

:50:16.:50:17.

will have a detrimental effect, I suspect, literally on the smaller

:50:18.:50:21.

parties. The last general election, the big five to just under 90% of

:50:22.:50:26.

the vote. The remainder was spread across the smaller, minor parties

:50:27.:50:29.

and a range of independence. They are only going to have a marginal

:50:30.:50:35.

impact in terms of, certainly I do not see them winning any seeds,

:50:36.:50:39.

perhaps with the exception And Alliance. With all of the issues

:50:40.:50:46.

confronting Northern Ireland, I think they have a key role to play.

:50:47.:50:49.

What do you think this election is likely to be about from a voter 's

:50:50.:50:54.

perspective? I think Brexit obviously is the context we are

:50:55.:50:57.

going into this election under. Northern Ireland did vote to remain,

:50:58.:51:01.

however the DUP in particular and the Ulster Unionist Party afterwords

:51:02.:51:03.

have taken a pretty strong parolees approach. I think we cannot sort of

:51:04.:51:11.

disassociates that from the last Assembly election. -- a pretty

:51:12.:51:15.

strong lead approach. It will be very much in their minds that they

:51:16.:51:18.

came within one seat of Sinn Fein. They will be wanting to consolidate

:51:19.:51:21.

their position and thinking about how they want to do this without

:51:22.:51:25.

increasing the Nationalist vote as per the last election. We may have

:51:26.:51:29.

to wait and see whether there will be a unionist Pact, because the

:51:30.:51:35.

parties have got until 4pm Thursday afternoon to actually, when

:51:36.:51:39.

nominations close, so the DUP and UUP have only got four days to come

:51:40.:51:44.

up with a pact, if there is to be one. And of course, it is

:51:45.:51:47.

distinguished possible that we will see some tactical voting in some of

:51:48.:51:51.

those constituencies, which could be very much to the detriment of the

:51:52.:51:54.

smaller parties. If people decide that this is about Brexit, for or

:51:55.:51:59.

against, they will perhaps focus on the two main candidates on either

:52:00.:52:04.

side of the fence. Yes, and it is first past the post. The Assembly

:52:05.:52:08.

elections you voted on the ticket, to get one drowsiness, so that

:52:09.:52:11.

probably will mean people will go towards the safer bet. The smaller

:52:12.:52:15.

parties will be looking to use this opportunity to prove themselves and

:52:16.:52:19.

set out their stall. But ultimately, first past the post favours the

:52:20.:52:24.

larger parties. That is what makes a very interesting. Thanks very much.

:52:25.:52:25.

We will talk to you both later. and take a look at the week

:52:26.:52:28.

gone past in 60 seconds, Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neill

:52:29.:52:40.

defended her attendance at a commemoration for eight IRA men shot

:52:41.:52:46.

dead by the SAS. I see no contradiction whatsoever in

:52:47.:52:48.

commemorating a republican dead whilst reaching out to our Unionist

:52:49.:52:53.

neighbours. I do not think yesterday did anything to reach out to

:52:54.:52:55.

unionism. Belfast City Council 's back a

:52:56.:53:00.

position to create an Irish language officer, and one Alliance member

:53:01.:53:01.

welcomed the move in Irish. As a member of the Presbyterian

:53:02.:53:12.

Church in Ireland, I am delighted to support a new language policy. The

:53:13.:53:16.

EU said it sold over Brexit negotiations and Northern Ireland

:53:17.:53:20.

made the headlines. I will pay great attention to the situation in

:53:21.:53:25.

Ireland, and I will go to Ireland next week.

:53:26.:53:27.

And the demand for special EU status continued. Northern Ireland is one

:53:28.:53:33.

part of the UK that can rejoin the EU in future, but without an Article

:53:34.:53:35.

49 negotiation. Now, French voters go to the polls

:53:36.:53:39.

to elect a new President today. So will they go for

:53:40.:53:44.

a pro-European liberal who's still something

:53:45.:53:46.

of an unknown entity, or a far-right challenger

:53:47.:53:48.

to the establishment, who has vowed to take

:53:49.:53:49.

on globalisation and France's relationship

:53:50.:53:52.

with the EU? Whoever wins - Emmanuel Macron

:53:53.:53:55.

or Marine Le Pen - what impact will it have

:53:56.:53:58.

on the rest of Europe? who's Professor of European Politics

:53:59.:54:00.

at Queen's University. David, hello. Thank you for joining

:54:01.:54:14.

us. The last two weeks of the campaign have been quite brutal. The

:54:15.:54:16.

country is very divided. How difficult will it be for whoever

:54:17.:54:20.

wins to unite the French people? I think it is going to be very

:54:21.:54:22.

difficult for them to unite the French people. Because also

:54:23.:54:27.

following the presidential elections we will have a parliamentary

:54:28.:54:29.

election as well so you will see competition there as well. I think

:54:30.:54:33.

there is obviously an expectation that Macron will probably win, given

:54:34.:54:37.

that the opinion polls, and there is a sense that he will get some degree

:54:38.:54:41.

of continuity in France's European policy with that. But obviously, if

:54:42.:54:47.

Marine Le Pen wins, then everything is up for question. I think the

:54:48.:54:49.

other thing to remember is that Marine Le Pen getting just over 20%

:54:50.:54:54.

of the vote, that are left it in just over 20% of the vote, so come

:54:55.:54:58.

the next presidential election, you probably still got that split within

:54:59.:55:02.

the French public over what their preferences are for the future of

:55:03.:55:05.

France. A lot of commentators have been saying that turnout could have

:55:06.:55:08.

a very big impact on the final result, but if Marine Le Pen were to

:55:09.:55:14.

be successful and overturn the huge lead in the polls that Emmanuelle

:55:15.:55:19.

Macron has, just how remarkable would that be in your view? I think

:55:20.:55:24.

it would be, well, it creates a enormous uncertainty as to what the

:55:25.:55:28.

French position is going to be. She would still need to get an amazing

:55:29.:55:31.

result in the parliamentary elections to secure a majority

:55:32.:55:33.

support within the parliament, and there is the view that without that

:55:34.:55:37.

Parliamentary support, she is going to be hamstrung. But I think she is

:55:38.:55:41.

still necessarily going to be very vocal in her opposition to the euro

:55:42.:55:44.

and there is going to be a debate here as to whether French should

:55:45.:55:47.

stay in the EU. It's created an enormous degree of uncertainty, and

:55:48.:55:57.

I think it is fair to say that the last majority of the other EU member

:55:58.:56:00.

states are desperately praying for a Emmanuel Macron victory. If that is

:56:01.:56:02.

what happened, what you think the impact will be over the course of

:56:03.:56:05.

discussions over the next two years as far as is concerned? Is Macron

:56:06.:56:09.

wins, we will likely see the unity of the EU 27 consolidated. He will

:56:10.:56:12.

be wanting to ensure that the EU comes out of this exceedingly well,

:56:13.:56:17.

that it remains and you can actually continue the process of European

:56:18.:56:21.

integration and he is keen to revive it. It is very unclear what will

:56:22.:56:25.

actually happen if Marine Le Pen wins. I think she is going to be

:56:26.:56:29.

very sympathetic to the British desire to leave and will probably

:56:30.:56:34.

not stand in the way of it at all. Which is a very strange conundrum,

:56:35.:56:38.

is it not, from Downing Street's perspective? For that reason, they

:56:39.:56:42.

might want Marine Le Pen to win, but probably for every other reason

:56:43.:56:46.

would not want her to win. Let's assume that Macron is successful.

:56:47.:56:50.

Does that been that it is going to be a much tougher negotiation, is

:56:51.:56:54.

what you are saying, as far as Theresa May is concerned? She may

:56:55.:56:57.

get a lot less of what she wants? It is going to be a tough negotiation

:56:58.:57:01.

either way. The one thing we have noticed over the last nine months is

:57:02.:57:04.

the unity of the 27. That has been quite remarkable for a lot of

:57:05.:57:10.

people. And that will not change if Macron is in there? No, I think that

:57:11.:57:20.

will become stronger. We got a German election coming up in the

:57:21.:57:23.

autumn as well but both of the leading candidates they are are

:57:24.:57:26.

equally as pro-EU as Macron. We had this final twist on Friday evening,

:57:27.:57:29.

when Mr Macron political movement ended up being the victim of a

:57:30.:57:33.

massive hack with documents released online. We have not, for reasons to

:57:34.:57:39.

do with how the media has dealt with this in France, we have not seen the

:57:40.:57:42.

details. They have not been widely reported. Do you think that is

:57:43.:57:45.

unlikely to have a huge impact on the final outcome, or could that

:57:46.:57:50.

produce the real surprise? It could go both ways. One, there are these

:57:51.:57:54.

allegations out there which will reinforce Marine Le Pen's vote for

:57:55.:57:59.

the people who but equally we are deeply suspicious of the origins, or

:58:00.:58:03.

alleged origins of a lot of these leaks and suggest there is an

:58:04.:58:08.

interference with it, and that would have been designed to help Marine Le

:58:09.:58:12.

Pen. Figures have pointed in Russia's direction. It had been

:58:13.:58:16.

predicted that this might happen -- this happen. As far as Europe is

:58:17.:58:21.

concerned, we should not underplay the significance of this report for

:58:22.:58:25.

the European project over the next two years and beyond? It is a very

:58:26.:58:27.

significant day today. two years and beyond? It is a very

:58:28.:58:31.

significant. You are faced with a high level of disruption if Marine

:58:32.:58:35.

Le Pen wins or a far greater continuity in the French position.

:58:36.:58:38.

We also need to note that Macron is Europhile and he has got ideas about

:58:39.:58:42.

pushing for further integration further down the line, and so I

:58:43.:58:45.

could actually see greater cooperation between the EU,

:58:46.:58:48.

particularly around the Eurozone, which on the one hand could

:58:49.:58:51.

consolidated but equally good open up some of the divisions within the

:58:52.:58:57.

EU longer term. It is a fascinating situation. We should get a better

:58:58.:58:59.

picture of that final outcome this evening, when polls close.

:59:00.:59:01.

Rick Wilford and Anna Mercer are still with me.

:59:02.:59:09.

Just a very quick word about that. What bearing to the two have --

:59:10.:59:16.

tonight might have on the Northern Ireland in particular? Immense. I

:59:17.:59:21.

think Ukip will be wanting Marine Le Pen to win and I think I agree with

:59:22.:59:24.

David in the sense that for them, that would be an easier proposition

:59:25.:59:31.

in relation to Brexit. Macron is a reconstructed Europhile and I think

:59:32.:59:35.

he has already said, I think, that he would be looking for really tough

:59:36.:59:40.

negotiation with the UK. Mrs may paradoxically perhaps would rather

:59:41.:59:47.

not have a liberal minded person in the early is a palace! For us, well,

:59:48.:59:52.

goodness knows. We do not know where we are, the UK does not know where

:59:53.:59:57.

we are, there are so many options and possibilities. What Macron will

:59:58.:00:03.

do will push hard for pretty tough negotiation with the UK and that

:00:04.:00:05.

could have a detrimental effect on us. It is going to be very

:00:06.:00:08.

interesting because we have got the EU's chief negotiator addressing the

:00:09.:00:17.

doll later this week. We have also got Tony Blair coming over to be a

:00:18.:00:20.

guest speaker at a conference. The European focus is going to be very

:00:21.:00:23.

close to our own door. It'll be interesting to see what some of

:00:24.:00:26.

these key figures have to say. Absolutely. To me, it has been the

:00:27.:00:30.

contrast in the approach of the UK Government and Irish Government. We

:00:31.:00:34.

have seen a much more partnership approach from the Irish government,

:00:35.:00:40.

the nod to the EU diplomacy style. And engaging with other politicians

:00:41.:00:42.

across Europe. The British government have been very forthright

:00:43.:00:46.

and very assertive in making a set of demands, which is much closer to

:00:47.:00:52.

the US model of diplomacy. I think if they want to learn anything from

:00:53.:00:57.

Northern Ireland, they need to build partnerships. What underpins

:00:58.:00:59.

partnership is trust and wherever that is not there, things fall apart

:01:00.:01:02.

and we do not need to look too far to see an example of that. They have

:01:03.:01:07.

got off on the wrong footing and need to put their heads together

:01:08.:01:11.

again. Very interesting situation unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:12.:01:13.

again. Very interesting situation housing associations and investment,

:01:14.:01:13.

but unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:14.:01:13.

both unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:14.:01:13.

but we unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:14.:01:13.

both very unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:14.:01:14.

but we have unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:15.:01:14.

both very much indeed. Four weeks to go until polling day

:01:15.:01:30.

on the 8th of June, what will the party strategies be for the

:01:31.:01:33.

remaining four weeks? Let's begin with the Conservatives. Do they just

:01:34.:01:40.

try to continue to play it safe for four weeks? Yes, with this important

:01:41.:01:44.

qualification. Theresa May Corp this election to get her own personal

:01:45.:01:48.

mandate partly, partly because she thought she would win big but to get

:01:49.:01:52.

her own personal mandate. Therefore, she needs to define it. In her own

:01:53.:01:58.

interests and to do with accountability to the country. So

:01:59.:02:02.

clearly, they will not take risks when they are so far ahead in the

:02:03.:02:07.

polls. What they do say in the manifesto matters in

:02:08.:02:09.

terms of the space that she has in the coming years to define her

:02:10.:02:16.

leadership against David Cameron 's. She is a free figure, partly on the

:02:17.:02:21.

basis of what she says as to how big she wins. They cannot just play it

:02:22.:02:31.

safe and repeat their mantra of strong and stable leadership, if she

:02:32.:02:36.

is going to claim her own mandate, they need the top policy? Yes, and

:02:37.:02:41.

what is unusual about this is that the manifesto matters far more

:02:42.:02:44.

because of what they need to do with it afterwards, than in terms of

:02:45.:02:47.

whether it is going to win anybody over now. Clearly, the strategy is

:02:48.:02:53.

yes, we do have two layout out a few things, there are interesting

:02:54.:02:56.

debates as to whether, for example, they will still commit to this

:02:57.:03:00.

ambition of reducing immigration to the tens of thousands, we do not

:03:01.:03:04.

know the answer yet. It is a question on whether she is setting

:03:05.:03:07.

herself up for difficulties later on. It will be a short manifesto, I

:03:08.:03:15.

would venture to guess? It is in her interests to be as noncommittal as

:03:16.:03:19.

possible, that argues for a short manifesto but what does strike me

:03:20.:03:23.

about the Conservative campaign, aside from the ambiguity on policy,

:03:24.:03:27.

is how personal it is. I think Theresa May, in her most recent

:03:28.:03:33.

speech, referred to "My local candidates", rather than

:03:34.:03:36.

Parliamentary candidates, very much framing it as a presidential

:03:37.:03:43.

candidate in France or the USA. Not a rational on her part. Everything I

:03:44.:03:47.

hear from the MPs on the ground and the focus groups being done by the

:03:48.:03:52.

parties, is that a big chunk of the population personally identify with

:03:53.:03:56.

her. If you can wrap up Middle England into a physical object and

:03:57.:03:59.

embody it in a person, it would be her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's

:04:00.:04:05.

unpopularity accounts for a big slice of her popularity, she has

:04:06.:04:08.

done a good job of bonding with the public. We never saw that coming!

:04:09.:04:12.

But you may well be right. That is happening now. Labour say it wants

:04:13.:04:16.

the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell to play a more prominent role in the

:04:17.:04:21.

Labour campaign, he was on The Andrew Marr Show this morning and he

:04:22.:04:24.

was asked if he was a Marxist, he denied that he was. It surprised me

:04:25.:04:29.

as I had seen tape from before saying that he was proud of it.

:04:30.:04:36.

Let's look now and then. Are you a Marxist? I believe that there is a

:04:37.:04:42.

lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe that there is a lot to learn from

:04:43.:04:46.

reading capital, that is recommended not only by me but measuring

:04:47.:04:49.

economists as well. I also believe that in the long tradition of the

:04:50.:04:57.

Labour Party... We need to demand systemic change. I am a Marxist.

:04:58.:05:01.

This is a classic crisis of the economy. A capitalist crisis. I've

:05:02.:05:06.

been waiting for this for a generation! That was from about four

:05:07.:05:13.

years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist, yes, I am a Marxist... I've been

:05:14.:05:17.

waiting for the Marxist revolution my whole life... Does this kind of

:05:18.:05:21.

thing matter? Yes, but in fairness, I think he is a really good

:05:22.:05:27.

interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have untested figures in a national

:05:28.:05:30.

campaign. None have ever been exposed at any level to a national

:05:31.:05:36.

media campaign that they are about to experience. He is the best

:05:37.:05:41.

interviewee. In fairness to him, when he gave that clip four years

:05:42.:05:46.

ago, I bet he never dream that he would be in a senior front bench

:05:47.:05:49.

position. But the background is clear. They are of the left, and I

:05:50.:05:54.

think they would all have described it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done,

:05:55.:06:00.

he is close to being like Tony Benn. There are about four Labour campaign

:06:01.:06:04.

is being fought in this election. Their campaign, the old Shadow

:06:05.:06:08.

Cabinet, campaigning in constituencies, but not identifying

:06:09.:06:13.

with that campaign. There is the former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is

:06:14.:06:20.

it damaging? I think so, if they could be damaged any further, I

:06:21.:06:23.

could see all of the Labour MPs with their heads in their hands. What I

:06:24.:06:27.

am hearing from Labour MPs is that there is not one of them who do not

:06:28.:06:31.

feel that they have a horrendous battle on their hands. These will be

:06:32.:06:36.

very individual local campaigns, where local MPs are winning despite

:06:37.:06:40.

the party leadership and not because of it. Already, talk is turning to

:06:41.:06:45.

what happens next. Is there anyway that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a

:06:46.:06:49.

horrendous set of general election results as many anticipate, may stay

:06:50.:06:55.

on all the same? It is not clear that even if the polls are right,

:06:56.:07:00.

that Mr Corbyn will go? John McDonnell implied it might not be

:07:01.:07:06.

the case but previously, he said it would be. What do you make of

:07:07.:07:10.

reports that the Labour strategy is not, I cannot quite believe I am

:07:11.:07:15.

saying this, not to win seats but maximise a share of the vote. If

:07:16.:07:20.

they do better than Ed Miliband with 30.5% of the vote, they believe they

:07:21.:07:24.

live to fight another day? Yes, it reminded me of Tony Benn's speech

:07:25.:07:29.

after the 1983 election where they said as bad as the Parliamentary

:07:30.:07:33.

defeat was there were 8 million votes for socialism. A big section

:07:34.:07:37.

of public opinion voted for that manifesto. I wonder whether that is

:07:38.:07:45.

Corbyn's supporters best chance of holding onto power. Whether they can

:07:46.:07:50.

say that those votes are a platform on which we can build. That said,

:07:51.:07:55.

even moderate Labour MPs and desperate for a quick leadership

:07:56.:07:59.

contest. I hear a lot of them say that they would like to leave it for

:08:00.:08:03.

one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as an acting Labour leader. He would

:08:04.:08:07.

still have a mandate. Give the top party a chance to regroup and get

:08:08.:08:10.

rid of some of its problems and decide where it stands on policy.

:08:11.:08:15.

Most importantly, for potential candidates to show what they are

:08:16.:08:18.

made of, rather than lurching straight into an Yvette Cooper

:08:19.:08:24.

Coronation. 30 seconds on the Liberal Democrats, their strategy

:08:25.:08:31.

was to mop up the Remain vote. Uncertain about the Brexit party in

:08:32.:08:39.

demise. Ukip. The remain as have a dilemma, the little Democrats are

:08:40.:08:41.

not a strong enough vessel with 89 MPs to risk all ongoing for them --

:08:42.:08:48.

the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not know where they stand on Brexit.

:08:49.:08:53.

There is not a robust alternative vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit

:08:54.:09:02.

Conservative Party. At the moment. Four weeks to go, but not for

:09:03.:09:04.

France... France has been voting since early

:09:05.:09:06.

this morning, and we should get a first estimate of who will be

:09:07.:09:09.

the country's next President Just to warn you there are some

:09:10.:09:12.

flashing images coming up. The choice in France

:09:13.:09:16.

is between a centre-left liberal reformer Emmanuel Macron

:09:17.:09:18.

and a right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen - both have been

:09:19.:09:20.

casting their votes this morning. The two candidates topped

:09:21.:09:22.

a field of 11 presidential hopefuls in the first

:09:23.:09:25.

round of elections last month. The campaign has been marked

:09:26.:09:27.

by its unpredictability, and in a final twist on Friday

:09:28.:09:29.

evening, just before campaigning officially ended,

:09:30.:09:35.

Mr Macron's En Marche! group said it had been the victim

:09:36.:09:37.

of a "massive" hack, with a trove of documents

:09:38.:09:43.

released online. The Macron team said real documents

:09:44.:09:45.

were mixed up with fake ones, and electoral authorities warned

:09:46.:09:48.

media and the public that spreading details of the leaks would breach

:09:49.:09:50.

strict election rules. I'm joined now from

:09:51.:10:01.

Paris by the journalist As I left Paris recently, everybody

:10:02.:10:14.

told me that there was the consensus that Mr Macron would win, and win

:10:15.:10:17.

pretty comfortable you. Is there any reason to doubt that? -- pretty

:10:18.:10:23.

comfortably. I don't think so, there have been so many people left and

:10:24.:10:28.

right, former candidates who have decided that it was more important

:10:29.:10:33.

to vote for Macron, even if it was agreed with him, then run the risk

:10:34.:10:36.

of having Marine Le Pen as president. I think the spread is now

:10:37.:10:44.

20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le Pen. So outside of the margin of

:10:45.:10:47.

error that it would take something huge for this to be observed. If the

:10:48.:10:53.

polls are right and Mr Macron wins, he has to put together a government,

:10:54.:11:01.

and in May there is a Coronation, then he faces parliamentary

:11:02.:11:06.

elections in June and could face a fractured parliament where he does

:11:07.:11:11.

not have a clear majority for his reforms. He could then faced

:11:12.:11:13.

difficulties in getting his programme through? I think that

:11:14.:11:19.

right now, with how things are looking, considering you have one

:11:20.:11:25.

half of the Republican party, the Conservative Party, they are making

:11:26.:11:30.

clear sides, not only that they want to support Macron but are supporting

:11:31.:11:34.

him actively. It means looking at the equivalent of the German party,

:11:35.:11:39.

the great coalition. Depending on how many seats established parties

:11:40.:11:44.

keep in the house committee may very well have a Republican Prime

:11:45.:11:54.

Minister, rather than having an adversarial MP, he may have someone

:11:55.:12:04.

who is relatively unknown outside of France, and a young woman. Contended

:12:05.:12:10.

that lost the Parez mayorship three years ago. She is a scientist and

:12:11.:12:16.

has been secretary of state. She would be an interesting coalition

:12:17.:12:22.

Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le Pen, if she goes down to defeat a

:12:23.:12:27.

night, does she have the stomach and ambition, and the energy, to try it

:12:28.:12:34.

all again in 2022? She has all of that. The question is, would they

:12:35.:12:39.

let her? How badly would she lose? Her niece, now 27, a hard-working

:12:40.:12:44.

and steady person, unlike Marine Le Pen, who flunked her do paid --

:12:45.:12:53.

debate, her niece may decide that 2022 is her turn. Yet another Le

:12:54.:13:00.

Pen! All right, we will see. Just five years to wait, but only a few

:13:01.:13:04.

hours until the results of the election tonight.

:13:05.:13:07.

And we will get the exit polls here on the BBC. Given the exit polls

:13:08.:13:12.

will give as a pretty fair indication of what the result is

:13:13.:13:16.

going to be tonight. That will be on BBC news. That's all for today.

:13:17.:13:19.

The Daily Politics will cover every turn of this election campaign,

:13:20.:13:22.

And we're back here on BBC One at our usual time Next Sunday.

:13:23.:13:27.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:28.:13:30.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS