14/05/2017 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


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14/05/2017

Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:38.:00:41.

Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes

:00:42.:00:45.

in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -

:00:46.:00:48.

Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax

:00:49.:00:55.

to fund public services, but will traders just

:00:56.:00:56.

Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,

:00:57.:01:00.

insists he can win this election - so which way will

:01:01.:01:03.

And coming up here: group in Leeds.

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and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air

:01:19.:01:19.

pollution problem in London. And coming up here:

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selected focus group of political pundits -

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they're not so much Can the Alliance Party

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translate its success undecided as clueless -

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Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott So, we've got two new

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policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce

:01:35.:01:43.

a financial transaction tax if they win the general election

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and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax

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avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work

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with local authorities in England to build council houses

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with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy

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"will help thousands of people get on the first rung

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of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I

:01:58.:02:10.

have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in

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pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as

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literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the

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Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it

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framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a

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sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a

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narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an

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argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour

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government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said

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right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a

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housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit

:02:53.:02:56.

George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get

:02:57.:03:01.

house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it

:03:02.:03:05.

works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes

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sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa

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May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly

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these two announcements have something in common which is that

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over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.

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Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't

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agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like

:03:37.:03:42.

a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might

:03:43.:03:47.

become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is

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difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what

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looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase

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orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will

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change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market

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value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily

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with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both

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would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and

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traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then

:04:26.:04:32.

councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the

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city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the

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Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is

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talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now

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Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is

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the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most

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interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC

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correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't

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worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising

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it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the

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macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very

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well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.

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Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.

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But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -

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that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media

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Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra

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?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social

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care over the lifetime of the next parliament,

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as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over

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The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,

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although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious

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about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence

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and security review immediately after the election.

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In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable

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management of migration", but it will not make "false

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Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,

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and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises

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for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.

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The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail

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and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one

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A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics

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as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss

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about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates

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told us they thought it had been deliberately

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leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting

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the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"

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And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,

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Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise

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the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out

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rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the

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railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three

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Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to

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comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what

:07:28.:07:34.

is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will

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nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking

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the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail

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will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail

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until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound

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very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National

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Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to

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nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you

:08:09.:08:13.

will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the

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National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just

:08:20.:08:23.

have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is

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it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that

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costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I

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would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform

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the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority

:08:43.:08:45.

stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion

:08:46.:08:51.

in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for

:08:52.:08:57.

reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not

:08:58.:09:01.

going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the

:09:02.:09:04.

distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising

:09:05.:09:09.

the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on

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Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent

:09:15.:09:17.

years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in

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answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for

:09:26.:09:31.

nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the

:09:32.:09:34.

energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big

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six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to

:09:40.:09:44.

be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,

:09:45.:09:50.

you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with

:09:51.:09:55.

the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty

:09:56.:10:02.

to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The

:10:03.:10:08.

Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British

:10:09.:10:12.

taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a

:10:13.:10:16.

long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a

:10:17.:10:19.

key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in

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our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households

:10:26.:10:28.

ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal

:10:29.:10:33.

providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John

:10:34.:10:38.

McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top

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of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You

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will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years

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after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing

:10:56.:11:02.

75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of

:11:03.:11:08.

capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our

:11:09.:11:12.

financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a

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state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we

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won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.

:11:20.:11:26.

How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75

:11:27.:11:30.

billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500

:11:31.:11:37.

billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure

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that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a

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figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial

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competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the

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CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250

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billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the

:12:01.:12:05.

fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a

:12:06.:12:10.

proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have

:12:11.:12:17.

just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will

:12:18.:12:21.

ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the

:12:22.:12:25.

parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state

:12:26.:12:32.

than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will

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ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came

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to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft

:12:42.:12:49.

manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going

:12:50.:12:52.

to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps

:12:53.:12:57.

we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for

:12:58.:13:01.

corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your

:13:02.:13:05.

predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end

:13:06.:13:10.

of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their

:13:11.:13:14.

behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or

:13:15.:13:19.

they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to

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make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and

:13:25.:13:28.

costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.

:13:29.:13:34.

We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes

:13:35.:13:36.

in market activity because that would be approved and direction to

:13:37.:13:41.

take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United

:13:42.:13:49.

States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are

:13:50.:13:52.

already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,

:13:53.:13:57.

if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number

:13:58.:14:02.

of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in

:14:03.:14:07.

the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting

:14:08.:14:12.

corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business

:14:13.:14:16.

investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent

:14:17.:14:19.

years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in

:14:20.:14:25.

things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce

:14:26.:14:30.

the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the

:14:31.:14:35.

Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the

:14:36.:14:42.

proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can

:14:43.:14:45.

invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.

:14:46.:14:52.

Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in

:14:53.:15:02.

?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a

:15:03.:15:09.

year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so

:15:10.:15:15.

what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it

:15:16.:15:19.

increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about

:15:20.:15:25.

cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to

:15:26.:15:29.

thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are

:15:30.:15:35.

industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate

:15:36.:15:42.

businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if

:15:43.:15:46.

we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am

:15:47.:15:53.

not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business

:15:54.:16:01.

tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to

:16:02.:16:04.

thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on

:16:05.:16:16.

business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own

:16:17.:16:21.

labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not

:16:22.:16:26.

want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding

:16:27.:16:31.

with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing

:16:32.:16:35.

global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.

:16:36.:16:39.

Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't

:16:40.:16:45.

cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought

:16:46.:16:50.

in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has

:16:51.:16:54.

changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that

:16:55.:16:59.

change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a

:17:00.:17:04.

lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We

:17:05.:17:08.

need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the

:17:09.:17:15.

computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other

:17:16.:17:20.

countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what

:17:21.:17:23.

other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at

:17:24.:17:31.

introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will

:17:32.:17:38.

be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at

:17:39.:17:43.

the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in

:17:44.:17:47.

2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are

:17:48.:17:52.

going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which

:17:53.:17:57.

generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a

:17:58.:18:01.

significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied

:18:02.:18:12.

at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the

:18:13.:18:17.

instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.

:18:18.:18:22.

This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in

:18:23.:18:25.

terms of financial services because there is more to keep these

:18:26.:18:30.

businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the

:18:31.:18:34.

economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we

:18:35.:18:38.

will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.

:18:39.:18:42.

And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.

:18:43.:18:48.

Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower

:18:49.:18:54.

than international standards, so why are so many global companies who

:18:55.:19:01.

make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of

:19:02.:19:06.

the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not

:19:07.:19:09.

answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the

:19:10.:19:15.

important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it

:19:16.:19:19.

encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may

:19:20.:19:24.

say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.

:19:25.:19:30.

But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and

:19:31.:19:39.

did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading

:19:40.:19:42.

internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our

:19:43.:19:51.

partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than

:19:52.:19:55.

they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,

:19:56.:19:59.

alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the

:20:00.:20:05.

people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the

:20:06.:20:09.

corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and

:20:10.:20:14.

more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a

:20:15.:20:18.

number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been

:20:19.:20:25.

able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the

:20:26.:20:27.

changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British

:20:28.:20:35.

companies, not from these international companies. It is

:20:36.:20:38.

because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good

:20:39.:20:42.

thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack

:20:43.:20:48.

down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused

:20:49.:20:52.

to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by

:20:53.:20:58.

cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking

:20:59.:21:03.

down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap

:21:04.:21:08.

is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.

:21:09.:21:14.

It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have

:21:15.:21:20.

brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax

:21:21.:21:24.

schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone

:21:25.:21:34.

from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the

:21:35.:21:36.

Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money

:21:37.:21:41.

on these companies while still having a competitive rate to

:21:42.:21:47.

encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to

:21:48.:21:52.

prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on

:21:53.:21:55.

average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms

:21:56.:22:01.

by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it

:22:02.:22:07.

that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,

:22:08.:22:11.

Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual

:22:12.:22:17.

income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,

:22:18.:22:26.

people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep

:22:27.:22:28.

emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years

:22:29.:22:32.

and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.

:22:33.:22:39.

Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.

:22:40.:22:44.

There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.

:22:45.:22:50.

1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their

:22:51.:22:54.

careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,

:22:55.:22:58.

investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,

:22:59.:23:03.

companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities

:23:04.:23:08.

that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about

:23:09.:23:11.

hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than

:23:12.:23:16.

they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives

:23:17.:23:21.

have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has

:23:22.:23:24.

shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of

:23:25.:23:30.

?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions

:23:31.:23:36.

kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one

:23:37.:23:40.

law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of

:23:41.:23:46.

all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare

:23:47.:23:51.

and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people

:23:52.:23:57.

in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that

:23:58.:24:04.

allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket

:24:05.:24:09.

to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,

:24:10.:24:15.

among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as

:24:16.:24:21.

we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen

:24:22.:24:27.

millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these

:24:28.:24:31.

questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just

:24:32.:24:36.

about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and

:24:37.:24:40.

below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We

:24:41.:24:44.

have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone

:24:45.:24:49.

up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages

:24:50.:24:55.

will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for

:24:56.:25:00.

housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,

:25:01.:25:05.

social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the

:25:06.:25:09.

associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4

:25:10.:25:13.

billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you

:25:14.:25:21.

get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local

:25:22.:25:24.

authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.

:25:25.:25:31.

I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at

:25:32.:25:35.

100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at

:25:36.:25:41.

you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the

:25:42.:25:46.

local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is

:25:47.:25:50.

what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the

:25:51.:25:54.

money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the

:25:55.:25:57.

expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the

:25:58.:26:03.

housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how

:26:04.:26:09.

many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on

:26:10.:26:14.

it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what

:26:15.:26:19.

the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities

:26:20.:26:23.

who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.

:26:24.:26:26.

What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,

:26:27.:26:31.

they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,

:26:32.:26:34.

the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with

:26:35.:26:39.

them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I

:26:40.:26:43.

want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what

:26:44.:26:49.

the target and timescale is, and this government, under which

:26:50.:26:52.

affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million

:26:53.:26:58.

families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your

:26:59.:27:04.

record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what

:27:05.:27:08.

we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a

:27:09.:27:13.

strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This

:27:14.:27:20.

is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,

:27:21.:27:26.

75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.

:27:27.:27:31.

That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the

:27:32.:27:35.

industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in

:27:36.:27:46.

2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000

:27:47.:27:51.

affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.

:27:52.:27:59.

So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have

:28:00.:28:06.

delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour

:28:07.:28:12.

did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,

:28:13.:28:16.

working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in

:28:17.:28:17.

their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit

:28:18.:28:21.

of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those

:28:22.:28:24.

around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got

:28:25.:28:27.

three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those

:28:28.:28:30.

fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation

:28:31.:28:32.

YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders

:28:33.:28:37.

will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters

:28:38.:28:39.

of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home

:28:40.:28:49.

to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited

:28:50.:28:53.

from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't

:28:54.:28:56.

decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,

:28:57.:29:00.

two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up

:29:01.:29:02.

political press at Downing Street under David Cameron

:29:03.:29:09.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron

:29:10.:29:16.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself

:29:17.:29:18.

as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it

:29:19.:29:22.

came about who you want,

:29:23.:29:42.

if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus

:29:43.:29:46.

groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,

:29:47.:29:50.

even though some of those same people have been saying we quite

:29:51.:29:52.

like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's

:29:53.:29:54.

going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive

:29:55.:29:59.

manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,

:30:00.:30:01.

that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that

:30:02.:30:05.

you don't recognise? After a little warm up,

:30:06.:30:07.

the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong

:30:08.:30:09.

woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,

:30:10.:30:16.

when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,

:30:17.:30:18.

here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what

:30:19.:30:21.

are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,

:30:22.:30:23.

it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's

:30:24.:30:28.

actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership

:30:29.:30:36.

in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's

:30:37.:30:49.

the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one

:30:50.:30:54.

for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad

:30:55.:31:04.

as strong and stable, but it will probably get

:31:05.:31:06.

on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today

:31:07.:31:08.

and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my

:31:09.:31:19.

question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,

:31:20.:31:26.

we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table

:31:27.:31:29.

at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,

:31:30.:31:33.

we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control

:31:34.:31:35.

and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought

:31:36.:31:37.

he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,

:31:38.:31:42.

hovering around, skirting around and that's the second

:31:43.:31:51.

time I've seen a similar interview with the question

:31:52.:31:54.

being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have

:31:55.:31:56.

any confidence with him You think you are going up

:31:57.:31:58.

against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand

:31:59.:32:01.

up for us? When you are in negotiations,

:32:02.:32:04.

you need to be tough. And actually is right

:32:05.:32:08.

to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing

:32:09.:32:10.

something for the country. There's a reason for talking

:32:11.:32:12.

about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future

:32:13.:32:15.

of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen

:32:16.:32:17.

to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show

:32:18.:32:22.

and in the news. She attracts the public better

:32:23.:32:27.

than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question

:32:28.:32:33.

in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa

:32:34.:32:36.

May is an animal. So, in your minds,

:32:37.:32:42.

what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think

:32:43.:32:45.

she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's

:32:46.:32:59.

superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies

:33:00.:33:06.

are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak

:33:07.:33:21.

and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch

:33:22.:33:25.

you by surprise if you're What do you take away

:33:26.:33:27.

from what you saw then, and what message would you send back

:33:28.:33:35.

to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see

:33:36.:33:38.

Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,

:33:39.:33:41.

but you don't need to be liked to be elected,

:33:42.:33:43.

because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future

:33:44.:33:46.

and your security. I think what I also take out

:33:47.:33:48.

of that focus group, was it was a group of floating

:33:49.:33:51.

voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no

:33:52.:33:54.

huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ

:33:55.:33:56.

would be stick to the plan. I thought the response

:33:57.:33:59.

to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't

:34:00.:34:03.

particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her

:34:04.:34:05.

about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party

:34:06.:34:10.

want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks

:34:11.:34:13.

that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:14.:34:15.

what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise

:34:16.:34:22.

the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform

:34:23.:34:24.

out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those

:34:25.:34:30.

characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be

:34:31.:34:33.

over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact

:34:34.:34:36.

that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go

:34:37.:34:38.

into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American

:34:39.:34:41.

political consultant For the sake of this discussion,

:34:42.:34:48.

assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for

:34:49.:34:56.

Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious

:34:57.:35:02.

collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether

:35:03.:35:05.

you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where

:35:06.:35:09.

they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to

:35:10.:35:14.

watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more

:35:15.:35:19.

substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality

:35:20.:35:22.

and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because

:35:23.:35:28.

Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see

:35:29.:35:37.

on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language

:35:38.:35:45.

she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't

:35:46.:35:49.

see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her

:35:50.:35:53.

campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy

:35:54.:35:58.

because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary

:35:59.:36:03.

Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,

:36:04.:36:08.

the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I

:36:09.:36:14.

was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC

:36:15.:36:22.

had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can

:36:23.:36:27.

assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had

:36:28.:36:32.

but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other

:36:33.:36:39.

than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you

:36:40.:36:45.

will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour

:36:46.:36:50.

will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of

:36:51.:36:53.

number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of

:36:54.:36:57.

soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable

:36:58.:37:03.

majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British

:37:04.:37:06.

people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will

:37:07.:37:12.

have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice

:37:13.:37:17.

of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British

:37:18.:37:21.

politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there

:37:22.:37:25.

is still a significant percentage of the British population that once

:37:26.:37:29.

someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.

:37:30.:37:38.

I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and

:37:39.:37:41.

I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a

:37:42.:37:44.

population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.

:37:45.:37:51.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:52.:37:53.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:54.:37:55.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:37:56.:38:05.

The Prime Minister has been criticised for not paying enough

:38:06.:38:08.

attention to Northern Ireland during this Brexit-inspired

:38:09.:38:09.

Well, I have been personally engaged. I have contact with both

:38:10.:38:24.

Michelle and Arlene. We'll be hearing more

:38:25.:38:26.

from Theresa May, plus our party leader coverage continues

:38:27.:38:29.

with Naomi Long of Alliance. Where does her party fit

:38:30.:38:31.

into the local picture where orange and green battle-lines have been

:38:32.:38:33.

reinforced with positions And with their thoughts on that

:38:34.:38:35.

and more, my guests of the day are Chris Donnelly and Felicity

:38:36.:38:39.

Huston. The Prime Minister has

:38:40.:38:42.

defended her record of involvement in the on-going Stormont stand-off,

:38:43.:38:45.

and says she's clear about the Brexit deal she wants

:38:46.:38:47.

for Northern Ireland. Theresa May made the comments

:38:48.:38:49.

during a visit to the Balmoral show yesterday, the first time she's come

:38:50.:38:52.

to Northern Ireland since last July. Her decision not to come

:38:53.:38:55.

here in March before triggering Article 50,

:38:56.:38:57.

despite visiting other parts She was asked how she believes

:38:58.:38:58.

the question of the border with the Republic of Ireland

:38:59.:39:03.

is going to be resolved. I am very clear that we want to see

:39:04.:39:24.

no return to the borders of the past, no hard border, and I am clear

:39:25.:39:31.

that we need to see as seamless and frictionless a border as possible.

:39:32.:39:34.

Today I see the importance of the agriculture food industry in

:39:35.:39:36.

Northern Ireland and the world that is done between Northern Ireland and

:39:37.:39:41.

the republic. There is goodwill on all sides. I put it in my Article 50

:39:42.:39:47.

letter, they have put it in their guidelines, that we want to ensure

:39:48.:39:51.

that we have a resolution of this issue between Northern Ireland and

:39:52.:39:54.

the Republic of Ireland that will be good for both Northern Ireland and

:39:55.:39:58.

the Republic and the whole of the United Kingdom. There is some

:39:59.:40:02.

criticism that you have been two hands off and given that there is a

:40:03.:40:07.

political vacuum at Stormont and Northern Ireland find itself at the

:40:08.:40:10.

forefront of Brexit that you should be more personally engaged. Will you

:40:11.:40:15.

be in the future? I have been personally engaged. I have had

:40:16.:40:20.

contact with both Michelle and Arlene, the leaders of Sinn Fein and

:40:21.:40:25.

the DUP in Northern Ireland in the run-up to Easter when we were

:40:26.:40:28.

particularly looking at the talks and prior to that but what is

:40:29.:40:31.

important if we are going to see what we all want, which is a return

:40:32.:40:37.

to a strong, stable, devolved administration in Northern Ireland

:40:38.:40:40.

is that the parties in Northern Ireland come together and agree,

:40:41.:40:44.

come to an agreement, that can enable that to be re-established. As

:40:45.:40:50.

you know, after the general election, there will be several

:40:51.:40:53.

weeks until the end of June for those parties to come together and

:40:54.:40:58.

to see a resolution. We all want to see devolved administration restored

:40:59.:40:59.

in Northern Ireland. Let's hear from my guests,

:41:00.:41:01.

Chris Donnelly and Felicity Huston. As far as Theresa May 's presence in

:41:02.:41:10.

Northern Ireland at last is concerned, is it a case of better

:41:11.:41:15.

late than never? I am glad to see her here. She is going round the

:41:16.:41:19.

country. She is criticised if she comes and she is criticised if she

:41:20.:41:23.

doesn't come. To be complaining that she is not involved with the talks,

:41:24.:41:27.

we are not supposed to be grown-ups by now who can settle our own

:41:28.:41:32.

devolved issues? I don't know if it would have made any difference if

:41:33.:41:36.

she had come here. People would have shouted and screamed. It looked as

:41:37.:41:40.

if he didn't care about the big issues. I don't know if it was that.

:41:41.:41:45.

I think that there were places that it was more useful for it HER to

:41:46.:41:52.

appear. I wish we would have our own talks and solve our own problems and

:41:53.:41:56.

not expect the British, the Irish and the Americans to come in. I

:41:57.:42:01.

think from Theresa May 's perspective she has more pressing

:42:02.:42:07.

concerns. I think the last Prime Minister was sacked by Brexit and

:42:08.:42:10.

she is well aware that her political legacy will be defined by how she

:42:11.:42:14.

handles these negotiations. The problem with the pitch is that

:42:15.:42:19.

Michelle come to some sort -- Michelle and Arlene can do source of

:42:20.:42:23.

an agreement, they are a central player in those issues, legacy

:42:24.:42:30.

issues, where both James Brokenshire around the West insurer with the

:42:31.:42:35.

Westminster committee have weighed in, that is an important thing that

:42:36.:42:40.

needs to be resolved with the British and the agreement on the

:42:41.:42:46.

language act. That is one of the outstanding areas. I don't think she

:42:47.:42:50.

can afford to stand aloof because we are not really going to get the

:42:51.:42:52.

progress unless the British government are centrally involved.

:42:53.:42:54.

Alliance had its best ever Assembly election result last month

:42:55.:42:58.

increasing its first preference and share of the vote.

:42:59.:43:00.

But a general election is a very different ball game,

:43:01.:43:02.

so can the party translate its recent success into

:43:03.:43:04.

Joining me is party leader, Naomi Long.

:43:05.:43:14.

Well, can you? I believe we can. I think it is not just the view of the

:43:15.:43:24.

party but actually many commentators have recognised that is the case. I

:43:25.:43:28.

think there are real opportunities, not just for us in those seats but

:43:29.:43:33.

also to grow our vote in other seats and to send a very strong message to

:43:34.:43:37.

other parties who have failed to get devolution bag up and running that

:43:38.:43:40.

that is what people want to see as a priority after this election because

:43:41.:43:46.

come the 8th of June, we need to go back into a room together and get

:43:47.:43:50.

devolution restored. It is absolutely crucial for the future of

:43:51.:43:54.

Northern Ireland. We saw the Prime Minister in Northern Ireland that

:43:55.:43:57.

last during this election campaign, talking about some of the issues

:43:58.:44:01.

that are thrown up by the Brexit debate. In the absence of a devolved

:44:02.:44:06.

setup, who do you think can best serve the interest of Northern

:44:07.:44:10.

Ireland on the issue of Brexit? Is it Theresa May and the UK Government

:44:11.:44:15.

orders the Taoiseach in Northern Ireland would grow Ireland have a

:44:16.:44:22.

role? I have a role. She is going to be leading the negotiations from the

:44:23.:44:27.

UK said -- I think they both have a role. I have to say, to date,

:44:28.:44:32.

without much success in terms of charming the people that she needs

:44:33.:44:35.

to work with but how she handles that will be critical to Northern

:44:36.:44:38.

Ireland 's future. I don't believe that is the only person that we need

:44:39.:44:43.

to be dealing with. We need to be speaking to the Taoiseach because

:44:44.:44:47.

they have a role along the border on how we deal with the sensitive

:44:48.:44:51.

issues that affect the peace process and arrangements on an island bases

:44:52.:44:54.

as well as the kind of East-West arrangements that are part of the

:44:55.:44:57.

Good Friday agreement. Both will be involved but there are are also 26

:44:58.:45:03.

other EU states out there who will also have to reach a decision on the

:45:04.:45:07.

future of Northern Ireland and it is important we do not lose sight of

:45:08.:45:12.

them and ensure that they understand the sensitivities for Northern

:45:13.:45:16.

Ireland. London and Dublin both have roles. You told me last October,

:45:17.:45:21.

there is a real opportunity for us to have two voices at the table, one

:45:22.:45:25.

on the inside of Europe and one speaking for us in these

:45:26.:45:29.

negotiations in the British government. Who would choose one

:45:30.:45:33.

voice-over to when things are so crucial? Do you stand by that?

:45:34.:45:40.

Absolutely. It would be madness for us to alienate the voice of the

:45:41.:45:42.

Irish government in this because they will be in the negotiations

:45:43.:45:47.

with 26 other EU states. They have many of the same concerns that we

:45:48.:45:51.

have when it comes to the border and cross-border trade and cooperation

:45:52.:45:53.

and all those other things. It would be insane for us not to find

:45:54.:45:57.

ourselves a way of dealing with them which is why we have been involved

:45:58.:46:01.

in the dialogue on Brexit and we will continue to do that. There

:46:02.:46:07.

could be a Unionist disposition who could be tempted to vote for

:46:08.:46:10.

Alliance who would agree with Jim Nicholson when he says Brussels

:46:11.:46:15.

should keep out of this issue. Northern Ireland can stick up for

:46:16.:46:18.

itself. Northern Ireland cannot stand up for itself because we don't

:46:19.:46:22.

have a voice at the negotiating table saw this negotiation will take

:46:23.:46:26.

place between London and the other 27 states. One of which happens to

:46:27.:46:30.

be Dublin which has a vested interest in seeing a good result for

:46:31.:46:36.

Northern Ireland. I think it is a practical... I think it is quite a

:46:37.:46:39.

significant part of the 26, given that it is going to be directly

:46:40.:46:43.

impacted and it is one of the most pro-European countries in Europe. It

:46:44.:46:47.

will not want to annoy the Irish and drive them out either. I think it

:46:48.:46:52.

would be mad for anyone and I don't think it's about being a Unionist or

:46:53.:46:56.

a nationalist, it is about being pragmatic and practical in response

:46:57.:46:58.

to what I think are practical issues that we are going to have to face.

:46:59.:47:03.

It is interesting you should take that line. The issue for Alliance is

:47:04.:47:07.

your candidates in this election campaign could well become piggy in

:47:08.:47:11.

the middle between pro-Brexit Unionist candidates and Andy Brexit

:47:12.:47:17.

candidates. In a first past the post system, your supporters might choose

:47:18.:47:21.

to support you. We hear this in every election, we are used to

:47:22.:47:24.

hearing that. We're not in the middle. We are leading from the

:47:25.:47:27.

front in terms of what we want to do. Part of the reason people are

:47:28.:47:32.

coming to Alliance is because they are wary of increasingly

:47:33.:47:35.

nationalist, inward looking politics, not just in Northern

:47:36.:47:38.

Ireland but actually globally, in terms of how people are responding

:47:39.:47:41.

to the challenges that we face and I think that what they want to see is

:47:42.:47:46.

a recognition of the importance of interdependence, a recognition of

:47:47.:47:50.

the importance of cooperation and a recognition that regardless of

:47:51.:47:54.

Brexit, our future will continue to be entwined with Europe, whether we

:47:55.:47:59.

like that or not. What we need to do, Mark, is to develop positive

:48:00.:48:04.

relationships with Europe, regardless of Brexit, so that we can

:48:05.:48:07.

continue to function and we can continue to make a success of

:48:08.:48:11.

Northern Ireland. When Arlene Foster says this is about securing Northern

:48:12.:48:15.

Ireland 's place in the union, she is wrong? Of course she is wrong. If

:48:16.:48:20.

it was about that, it would be a referendum on the border. It is not

:48:21.:48:23.

a referendum on the border. It is an election to decide who will

:48:24.:48:27.

represent constituencies best at Westminster and part of that will be

:48:28.:48:31.

about their position with regards to Brexit, part of that will be about

:48:32.:48:35.

their position with regards to social policy and economic policy

:48:36.:48:37.

and part of that will be about the work that they do on the ground and

:48:38.:48:42.

I think the public recognise that. We hear every election now in

:48:43.:48:47.

Northern Ireland as if it is going to make a difference to the border

:48:48.:48:49.

and the border has not moved one inch since 1998, nor will it as a

:48:50.:48:54.

result of this election. What will happen as a result of this election

:48:55.:48:59.

is that we will either have 18 MPs over in Westminster speaking with a

:49:00.:49:03.

common voice in favour of what is best for Northern Ireland or we want

:49:04.:49:06.

and that is a choice that the Northern Ireland Republic PUBLIC are

:49:07.:49:12.

well aware that they need to make. We like to see a second referendum

:49:13.:49:20.

on Brexit? No, I don't want to see a second referendum but I do want to

:49:21.:49:24.

see the outcome of the negotiations put to a referendum because people

:49:25.:49:28.

voted for a principle that we would vote to leave the EU. It was unclear

:49:29.:49:32.

as a result of that campaign which bits we would completely leave.

:49:33.:49:35.

Would leave the customs union, the single market, would we be the

:49:36.:49:41.

Switzerland of Ireland? Would we be like Norway? There were all those

:49:42.:49:44.

debates and they were never answered. I think it is right and

:49:45.:49:48.

proper that having made a decision about the direction that we have to

:49:49.:49:51.

take that we then put the final arrangements to the public so they

:49:52.:49:54.

can decide whether that meets what they actually wanted in terms of

:49:55.:49:58.

their expectations. Just to come back to Northern Ireland politics.

:49:59.:50:09.

Is devolution your number one priority, getting the message

:50:10.:50:14.

across? First of all we want to stand and say that we are wanting

:50:15.:50:17.

that second referendum when it comes to the issue of the deal that we get

:50:18.:50:22.

in Northern Ireland. We want to send strong voices to Westminster to make

:50:23.:50:27.

it clear that we do need a special deal for Northern Ireland and the

:50:28.:50:30.

second issue was about devolution and sending a strong message to the

:50:31.:50:34.

parties that had been blocking the restoration of devolution that we

:50:35.:50:37.

want to see that restored and people can vote for the same thing they

:50:38.:50:41.

voted for last time, they can give parties the same mandate they gave

:50:42.:50:45.

before and what they will get is a repeat of what he had in the past.

:50:46.:50:49.

They need to send a message by voting for parties who are committed

:50:50.:50:52.

to making devolution work and that will send the strongest possible

:50:53.:50:55.

message unequivocally to those entering the talks on the 9th of

:50:56.:51:04.

June. If you win in your constituency and you are returned as

:51:05.:51:08.

an MP, who is going to lead your party delegation in those talks? You

:51:09.:51:13.

will have a focus elsewhere. Can you continue if you are an MP to be the

:51:14.:51:18.

party leader? Of course I can and of course I can continue to lead the

:51:19.:51:21.

delegation. If you look at what happened in Stormont in the talks

:51:22.:51:27.

before, Mark Durkan was heavily involved Iniestia P delegation. We

:51:28.:51:33.

had Gerry Adams there. There is absolutely no reason... When I was

:51:34.:51:42.

an MP, I was our chief negotiator. I was our chief negotiator in the

:51:43.:51:44.

house and at no point did anybody say I was not doing a good job as an

:51:45.:51:50.

MP. You would have to give up yours would not be your seat in Stormont?

:51:51.:51:59.

That is automatic. MPs are required in Westminster for a large

:52:00.:52:03.

proportion of the week to vote, scrutinise and provide a voice for

:52:04.:52:06.

constituents. No person can be in two places at once. What I have said

:52:07.:52:11.

is that is absolutely correct and that is why we supported net double

:52:12.:52:16.

jogging. Voluntarily. I stood down from my position in the semi when I

:52:17.:52:21.

was last in Westminster and it is now law that people have to but what

:52:22.:52:26.

I am saying is... Do you imagine that our MPs go to Westminster and

:52:27.:52:30.

that they stay there and they do not remain connected with issues

:52:31.:52:33.

affecting their constituents? What a nonsense that would be. It is

:52:34.:52:39.

another thing being an MP and a party leader. If you have a strong

:52:40.:52:45.

coherent party behind you and an excellent deputy leader, there is

:52:46.:52:48.

absolutely no conflict whatsoever. The reality is that there are some

:52:49.:52:51.

of the parties that struggled with this who could not be led from

:52:52.:52:54.

anywhere. That is their difficulty and we don't have those problems in

:52:55.:52:56.

Alliance. Let's hear what Felicity

:52:57.:52:59.

and Chris make of that, Naomi Long did not likely phrase

:53:00.:53:13.

piggy in the middle in terms of being squeezed by the power blocs

:53:14.:53:17.

but is it a fair point to make? Historically it was the case to

:53:18.:53:23.

make. The first past the post feature meant that the Nationalists

:53:24.:53:30.

and the Unionists faced off. That is likely to be even more of an issue

:53:31.:53:33.

with Brexit dominating this campaign. It is but there are a

:53:34.:53:39.

number of caveats I were add to that. They had their best ever

:53:40.:53:48.

election in March. Those 72,000 people voted for Alliance

:53:49.:53:50.

candidates. They are now at the stage where in Naomi Long, they are

:53:51.:53:55.

one of the two favourite candidates in east Belfast and she will benefit

:53:56.:53:59.

from the Westminster first past the post. In other constituencies where

:54:00.:54:03.

they realise... They have decided to set them out. McAllister in north

:54:04.:54:11.

Belfast, that is going to lend more credibility to the notion that it is

:54:12.:54:16.

a straight battle between John Finnigan and Nigel Dodds. Which will

:54:17.:54:21.

be an interesting battle. Felicity, what do you make of the idea

:54:22.:54:25.

underscored again by Naomi Long that Dublin has an important part to play

:54:26.:54:28.

in those discussions about how exactly Brexit happens? I think that

:54:29.:54:34.

is the case. Dublin wants no hard border, the UK wants no hard border.

:54:35.:54:41.

So that is probably what is going to happen. Are you happy for the Dublin

:54:42.:54:46.

administration to speak on behalf of you question mark I don't see them

:54:47.:54:52.

doing that. I see them... They are not talk about the Northern Island

:54:53.:54:57.

people. There are people in Northern Ireland to think that is the case.

:54:58.:55:03.

The Taoiseach is voted in by people of the Irish Republic. That is his

:55:04.:55:11.

job. That is fine. Everybody is working towards the same thing. I

:55:12.:55:13.

don't really see a big problem with that one.

:55:14.:55:14.

Let's take a look back at the week in 60 seconds with Gareth Gordon.

:55:15.:55:26.

The number of general election candidate in Northern Ireland is

:55:27.:55:35.

down but more women are standing. The DUP and Ulster Unionist Party

:55:36.:55:39.

stepping aside for each other in two key constituencies. Whilst there is

:55:40.:55:43.

no formal pact, those two very significant moves I think will help

:55:44.:55:49.

the unionist people to send to unionist MPs back. If the DUP made a

:55:50.:55:53.

significant move on the Irish Sandwich, what would Sinn Fein be

:55:54.:55:57.

prepared to do over Ulster Scots? I am quite open for doing something if

:55:58.:56:01.

there is a therefore it. I said that from day one. The EU chief

:56:02.:56:06.

negotiator on Brexit visited Dublin and warned it will have

:56:07.:56:11.

consequences. Some controls are part of border management. To protect the

:56:12.:56:17.

single market. Something the Taoiseach seems all too aware of. We

:56:18.:56:22.

know how corrugated and seriously issues are for Europe as a whole and

:56:23.:56:23.

for Ireland. Gareth Gordon there, now tributes

:56:24.:56:31.

from across the political spectrum are being paid to Brendan Duddy,

:56:32.:56:33.

widely credited as an important The Londonderry business man

:56:34.:56:36.

died at the age of 80 Mitchel McLaughlin is

:56:37.:56:40.

in our studio in Derry. Thanks very much indeed for being

:56:41.:56:56.

with us today. There are many people who invested a great deal of their

:56:57.:56:59.

time and effort into the peace process but what is interesting

:57:00.:57:03.

about Brendan Duddy is he did that over such a long period of time and

:57:04.:57:06.

with so little public recognition for his efforts. Good morning, Mark.

:57:07.:57:12.

Could I also extend my sympathies to the wider family. Brendan Duddy was

:57:13.:57:19.

a friend and acquaintance over a 50 year period, so I had a lot of

:57:20.:57:23.

respect for him and I wasn't the least bit surprised by his modesty

:57:24.:57:28.

and reticence about going into the details of his involvement in the

:57:29.:57:32.

peace process, which was undoubtedly very significant and very helpful.

:57:33.:57:36.

When did you first become aware that Brendan Duddy was acting as a

:57:37.:57:38.

middleman between the British government and the Republican

:57:39.:57:44.

leadership? In the early days of the process, Sinn Fein had already

:57:45.:57:48.

designated Martin McGuinness as a single point of contact and

:57:49.:57:53.

negotiator and those circumstances, Brendan Duddy was acting as a

:57:54.:57:59.

contact person. Eventually I became of his -- aware of his involvement

:58:00.:58:04.

where he was seeking without success to contact to conduct Martin

:58:05.:58:07.

McGuinness and he used me as a contact back to Martin. Roughly when

:58:08.:58:12.

was that? What period are we talking about? The early 90s and throughout

:58:13.:58:19.

that period. He had been involved for 20 years before that. He was

:58:20.:58:24.

involved in the 70s, trying to persuade the IRA to remove their

:58:25.:58:28.

guns. He was a contact between Margaret Thatcher and the IRA. I was

:58:29.:58:36.

for instance aware of the messages that were delivered prior to the

:58:37.:58:48.

rights march on bloody Sunday. That was contradicted for many years by

:58:49.:58:52.

the British government. Brendan 's role in that particular exchange

:58:53.:58:58.

where he was working with the most senior RUC officer at the time, and

:58:59.:59:03.

other very decent and Bravo man, is the background to that situation. I

:59:04.:59:13.

was unaware of it for many years. -- honourable man. We know he used his

:59:14.:59:21.

own front room in his own home for a venue for discussions between Martin

:59:22.:59:24.

McGuinness and representatives of the predicament. For many people,

:59:25.:59:26.

that is above and beyond the call of duty. It was a remarkable commitment

:59:27.:59:31.

and it was not a conference or a political meeting or a discussion

:59:32.:59:35.

that Brendan Duddy did not contribute to, either from the floor

:59:36.:59:40.

or from the platform. He had a profile as one of the most prominent

:59:41.:59:45.

businessmen in the town. He also demonstrated his commitment to

:59:46.:59:49.

building understandings and exchanges across the political

:59:50.:59:51.

divisions that exist and he was quite clear in his own politics in

:59:52.:59:58.

later years declared himself a Republican. He wished to see a

:59:59.:00:02.

united Ireland. He was the person I first heard you ring the statement

:00:03.:00:10.

that we should begin in the Irish back to the Irish. It is important

:00:11.:00:17.

that his contribution should be recognised that the time of his

:00:18.:00:18.

passing. Good to talk to you. Thanks, Mitchel McLaughlin,

:00:19.:00:21.

a final thought from Chris. We really should be marking the

:00:22.:00:32.

passing of Brendan Duddy on a programme like this. Yes, I think

:00:33.:00:38.

so. He was somebody will never betrayed a dress. He was defined by

:00:39.:00:42.

his honesty and that is important given the role he was to fulfil for

:00:43.:00:46.

decades. I think he was clearly somebody who clearly believed in

:00:47.:00:54.

dialogue to ease tensions. And he was one of those people who planted

:00:55.:00:57.

dialogue to ease tensions. And he Tories are saying. It is a very

:00:58.:00:57.

was one of those people who planted the

:00:58.:00:58.

Tories are saying. It is a very emotive

:00:59.:00:58.

Tories are saying. It is a very the seeds

:00:59.:00:58.

Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject

:00:59.:00:58.

Tories are saying. It is a very the seeds of the

:00:59.:00:58.

Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we

:00:59.:00:58.

Tories are saying. It is a very the seeds of the piece

:00:59.:00:58.

Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we have

:00:59.:00:58.

Tories are saying. It is a very the seeds of the piece that

:00:59.:00:59.

Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we have run

:01:00.:00:59.

Tories are saying. It is a very the seeds of the piece that was

:01:00.:00:59.

Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we have run out

:01:00.:00:59.

Tories are saying. It is a very the seeds of the piece that was to

:01:00.:00:59.

emotive subject and we have run out of time.

:01:00.:00:59.

the seeds of the piece that was to come.

:01:00.:01:00.

On Thursday nominations closed in the 650 parliamentary

:01:01.:01:11.

seats across the country, so now we know exactly who's

:01:12.:01:13.

We've been analysing the parties' candidates to find out

:01:14.:01:20.

what they might tell us about the make-up of the House

:01:21.:01:22.

Well, we know Theresa May is committed to delivering Brexit and

:01:23.:01:27.

analysis of Conservative candidates has shown that

:01:28.:01:32.

in their top 100 target seats, 37 candidates supported leave

:01:33.:01:35.

during last year's referendum campaign

:01:36.:01:43.

and 20 supported remain; 43 have not made public

:01:44.:01:45.

In the last parliament, the vast majority of Labour MPs

:01:46.:01:51.

were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how supportive are Labour

:01:52.:01:53.

Well, of 50 of Labour's top 100 target seats

:01:54.:02:00.

17 candidates have expressed support for Mr Corbyn.

:02:01.:02:02.

20 candidates supported Owen Smith in last year's leadership contest

:02:03.:02:07.

or have expressed anti-Corbyn sentiment, and

:02:08.:02:11.

If they won those, the Labour benches would be

:02:12.:02:17.

marginally more sympathetic to Mr Corbyn than they are now.

:02:18.:02:19.

What do the figures tell us about where the other

:02:20.:02:21.

Well, the Lib Dems have decided not to stand against the Greens

:02:22.:02:25.

in Brighton Pavilion, and are fielding 629

:02:26.:02:27.

candidates this year - that's two fewer than 2015.

:02:28.:02:30.

The number of Ukip candidates has fallen dramatically.

:02:31.:02:34.

They are standing in 247 fewer constituencies than 2015,

:02:35.:02:40.

throwing their support behind solidly pro-Brexit Tories

:02:41.:02:42.

in some areas such as Lewes and Norfolk North.

:02:43.:02:46.

The Greens are fielding 103 fewer candidates

:02:47.:02:50.

than at the last election, standing down to help

:02:51.:03:01.

other progressive candidates in some places.

:03:02.:03:07.

The most liking statistic is the demise in Ukip candidates, is this

:03:08.:03:19.

their swansong? And I think so. It is remarkable how few Ukip

:03:20.:03:26.

candidates are standing. It is hard to see they will suddenly revive in

:03:27.:03:30.

the next couple of years. I think this is probably the end. Frank

:03:31.:03:39.

Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of the left was a feature of this

:03:40.:03:44.

election, but also there is the consolidation of the right, and if

:03:45.:03:46.

you take the things together that could explain why the polls are

:03:47.:03:52.

where they are. Absolutely, that's precisely what happened at the start

:03:53.:03:57.

of the 1980s, the right was incredibly united and that's when we

:03:58.:04:02.

started talking about majorities of over 100 or so. No matter what the

:04:03.:04:09.

size of Theresa May's majority, it will be the total collapse of Ukip,

:04:10.:04:13.

but not just because we are now leaving the EU and that was their

:04:14.:04:19.

only reason for being, but a whole lot of people voted for Ukip because

:04:20.:04:23.

they felt the Tories were no longer listening. Theresa May has given the

:04:24.:04:31.

impression that she is listening, and that is the biggest possible

:04:32.:04:34.

thing that could happen to the Tory vote. Fragmentation of the left,

:04:35.:04:42.

consolidation of the right? It's one of the lessons that is never learnt,

:04:43.:04:48.

it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't take much for the whole thing to

:04:49.:04:53.

fracture so now you have on the centre-left the SNP, the Labour

:04:54.:04:59.

Party, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats all competing for the same

:05:00.:05:04.

votes and when you have, fleetingly perhaps, large numbers coalescing on

:05:05.:05:08.

the right in one party, there is only going to be one outcome. It

:05:09.:05:13.

happens regularly. It doesn't mean the Tories haven't got their own

:05:14.:05:19.

fragility. Two years ago, David Cameron and George Osborne the

:05:20.:05:23.

dominant figures, neither are in Parliament now which is a symptom of

:05:24.:05:27.

the fragility this election is disguising. Mrs May's position in a

:05:28.:05:33.

way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on

:05:34.:05:38.

the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in France, I won't be outflanked on the

:05:39.:05:42.

right, so the National Front didn't get through either timed he ran to

:05:43.:05:45.

the second round on like this time, and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be

:05:46.:05:52.

outflanked Iver and as a result has seen off right flank. And also she

:05:53.:05:56.

is looking to the left as well with some of the state interventions.

:05:57.:05:59.

What was interesting about the analysis you showed a few minutes

:06:00.:06:03.

ago was the number of Tory candidates who have apparently not

:06:04.:06:08.

declared which way they voted in the referendum, and you would have

:06:09.:06:12.

thought if this election was all about Brexit, as some would claim,

:06:13.:06:16.

that would become an unsustainable position, and actually more it's

:06:17.:06:21.

about leadership. But the point that I'm now hearing from a number of

:06:22.:06:26.

Labour candidates that they are seeing Tory leaflets that don't even

:06:27.:06:32.

have the Tory candidate's name on them, it is just about Theresa May.

:06:33.:06:37.

I am glad they are keeping to the law because by law they have to put

:06:38.:06:42.

it on. It has been harder for some of the smaller parties too because

:06:43.:06:48.

of the speed of the election being called. We have the manifesto is

:06:49.:06:54.

coming out this week. I think Labour Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet

:06:55.:06:58.

sure when the Tories will bring bears out. I suggest one thing, it

:06:59.:07:02.

will at least for people like me bring an end to the question you

:07:03.:07:10.

will have to wait for the manifesto. And Rebecca Long baby will never

:07:11.:07:13.

have that excuse again, isn't it wonderful! She is not the only one.

:07:14.:07:23.

When you are trying to take the north and Midlands from Labour, I

:07:24.:07:29.

would go to one or the other. For me, I can barely hold back my

:07:30.:07:34.

excitement over the Tory manifesto. This will be, I think, the most

:07:35.:07:37.

important day for the British government for the next five years.

:07:38.:07:46.

That wasn't irony there? You actually meant that? I'm not even

:07:47.:07:51.

being cynical at all on Sunday Politics! This is a huge day and

:07:52.:07:58.

it's because I think we will see... I don't think Mrs May will play it

:07:59.:08:02.

safe and I don't think we will get the broadbrush stuff that she might

:08:03.:08:08.

be advised to do. I think she will lay out precisely what you want to

:08:09.:08:12.

do over the next five years and take some big risks. Then finally after a

:08:13.:08:17.

year of this guessing and theorising, we will finally work out

:08:18.:08:21.

what Mrs May is all about. She will say she doesn't want the next

:08:22.:08:24.

parliament to be all about Brexit, though she knows that's the next

:08:25.:08:28.

important thing she has to deliver in some way, so she gets a mandate

:08:29.:08:32.

for that if the polls are right but she

:08:33.:08:43.

does have very different ideas from Mr Cameron about how to run a

:08:44.:08:47.

country. She will I assume one to mandate for what these different

:08:48.:08:49.

ideas are. Otherwise there is no point in holding an early election.

:08:50.:08:52.

You will get a majority, but if you get a mandate to carry on

:08:53.:08:56.

implementing the Cameron and Osborne manifesto it would be utterly

:08:57.:08:59.

pointless. I agree, it is the pivotal event of the election and it

:09:00.:09:02.

will be interesting to see the degree to which she expands on the

:09:03.:09:06.

line which interests me about its time to look at the good that

:09:07.:09:11.

government can do. Because in a way this moves the debate on in UK

:09:12.:09:18.

politics from, from 97 the Blair Brown governments were insecure

:09:19.:09:21.

about arguing about the role of government. Cameron Osborne

:09:22.:09:26.

government similarly so, so here you have a Labour Party talking about

:09:27.:09:30.

the role of government and the state, and Tory leader apparently

:09:31.:09:34.

doing so was well. I think that will be really interesting to see whether

:09:35.:09:38.

it is fleshed out in any significant way. And it is not a natural Tory

:09:39.:09:43.

message. Harold Macmillan talked about the role of the state, Ted

:09:44.:09:51.

Heath Mark two was pretty big on the state, the industrial policy and so

:09:52.:09:56.

on, and even if it is not thought to be that Tory, does she get away with

:09:57.:10:00.

it because she deliver such a big victory if that's what she does

:10:01.:10:05.

deliver? Just inject a little note of scepticism, I wonder how much of

:10:06.:10:11.

this is authentically Theresa May. I was interested to and talk to

:10:12.:10:19.

someone who used to sit in cabinet meetings during which Theresa May

:10:20.:10:22.

never expressed an opinion on anything outside the Home Office

:10:23.:10:25.

briefs. Other ministers were roving all over their colleagues' briefs.

:10:26.:10:34.

So where are the ideas coming from? I think we can point to Nick

:10:35.:10:41.

Timothy. One of her closest advisers in Downing Street. It will be

:10:42.:10:46.

interesting to see how that evolves. On Thursday I think we will all be

:10:47.:10:52.

talking about something called Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the

:10:53.:11:02.

suburb of Birmingham where Nick Timothy comes from, who is very much

:11:03.:11:07.

Theresa May's policy brain and leading inspiration. Urdington

:11:08.:11:12.

Toryism is about connecting the party with traditional working class

:11:13.:11:17.

voters, and their belief to do that is not just taking away government

:11:18.:11:21.

out of their lives but showing them that government can actually help

:11:22.:11:25.

their lives. It can be a force for good to rebuild the trust. A lot of

:11:26.:11:37.

what Mrs May talks about is all... It is talk and then a lot of it

:11:38.:11:41.

suddenly goes by the wayside. What happened to worker directors on the

:11:42.:11:50.

boards. It is designed to appeal to that constituency and then nothing

:11:51.:11:54.

happens. She had an excuse before in the sense that it wasn't in the 2015

:11:55.:11:59.

manifesto and she had a small majority so therefore she arguably

:12:00.:12:02.

had to water down some of the stuff for example in her Tory conference

:12:03.:12:08.

speech, which had a lot of this active government material in it. If

:12:09.:12:12.

she puts it in the manifesto, it is a sign she plans to do it and will

:12:13.:12:17.

have no excuse if she then gets nervous afterwards because it will

:12:18.:12:21.

be in there. If it wasn't for Brexit, this great overwhelming

:12:22.:12:26.

issue, I think this election will be seen as quite a significant

:12:27.:12:29.

development in terms of an argument around the role of government,

:12:30.:12:34.

much-needed. But Brexit unfortunately overshadows it all. As

:12:35.:12:39.

much as we like our arguments over the role of government we will hear

:12:40.:12:43.

strong and stable, stable and strong ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely,

:12:44.:12:51.

and we heard the same old lines from the Labour Party as well so they are

:12:52.:12:57.

all at it. It will be a fascinating week, stop talking it down! Thanks

:12:58.:13:01.

to our panel. The Daily Politics will be

:13:02.:13:03.

back on BBC Two at noon I'll be back here at the same time

:13:04.:13:06.

on BBC One next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:07.:13:10.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:11.:13:14.