12/03/2017 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


12/03/2017

Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:35.:00:39.

David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,

:00:40.:00:44.

ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process

:00:45.:00:46.

We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.

:00:47.:00:51.

Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise

:00:52.:00:54.

But how should we tax those who work for themselves?

:00:55.:01:02.

And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:03.:01:04.

We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.

:01:05.:01:12.

And in Northern Ireland - as Gerry Adams says a deal can

:01:13.:01:15.

be done at Stormont, I'll be asking a

:01:16.:01:17.

Plus a controversial budget at Westminster -

:01:18.:01:20.

And joining me for all of that, three self-employed journalists

:01:21.:01:32.

who definitely don't deserve a tax break.

:01:33.:01:36.

It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme with all the carefree

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abandon of Katie Hopkins before a libel trial.

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BBC lawyers have suddenly got nervous!

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So first today, the government is gearing up to trigger Article 50,

:01:52.:01:54.

perhaps in the next 48 hours, and start negotiating Britain's

:01:55.:01:57.

Much has been written about the prospect of the Commons

:01:58.:02:00.

getting a "meaningful vote" on the deal Britain negotiates.

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Brexit Secretary David Davis was on the Andrew Marr programme

:02:03.:02:05.

earlier this morning and he was asked what happens

:02:06.:02:07.

Well, that is what is called the most favoured nation status deal

:02:08.:02:17.

There we go out, as it were, on WTO rules.

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That is why of course we do the contingency planning, to make

:02:23.:02:25.

The British people decided on June the 23rd last year

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My job, and the job of the government, is to make

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the terms on which that happens as beneficial as possible.

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There we have it, clearly, either Parliament votes for the deal when

:02:49.:02:56.

it is done or it out on World Trade Organisation rules. That's what the

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government means by a meaningful vote.

:03:00.:03:01.

I think we get over obsessed about whether there will be a legal right

:03:02.:03:08.

for Parliament to have a vote. If there is no deal or a bad deal, I

:03:09.:03:11.

think it would be politically impossible for the government to

:03:12.:03:14.

reject Parliament's desire for a vote because the atmosphere of

:03:15.:03:18.

politics will be completely different by then. I take David

:03:19.:03:20.

Davies seriously. Within Whitehall he has acquired a reputation as

:03:21.:03:26.

being the most conscientious and details sadly... And well briefed.

:03:27.:03:30.

Absolutely and well travelled in terms of European capitals of the

:03:31.:03:33.

three Brexit ministers. It is quite telling he said what he did and it

:03:34.:03:36.

is quite telling that within cabinet, two weeks ago he was

:03:37.:03:41.

floating the idea of no deal at all. Being if not the central estimate

:03:42.:03:45.

than a completely plausible eventuality. It is interesting. I

:03:46.:03:49.

would suggest the prospect of no deal is moving up the agenda. It is

:03:50.:03:54.

still less likely than more likely to happen. But it's no longer a kind

:03:55.:03:59.

of long tail way out there in the distance. Planning for no deal is

:04:00.:04:03.

the same as having contents insurance or travel insurance, plan

:04:04.:04:05.

for the worse case scenarios are prepared it happens. Even the worst

:04:06.:04:09.

case scenario, it's not that bad. Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the

:04:10.:04:14.

EU, four members of the G20 economies are successful members of

:04:15.:04:19.

the EU. The rest aren't and don't have trade deals but somehow these

:04:20.:04:22.

countries are prospering. They are growing at a higher rate. You are

:04:23.:04:27.

not frightened? Not remotely. We are obsessed with what we get from the

:04:28.:04:30.

EU and the key thing we get from leaving the EU is not the deal but

:04:31.:04:34.

the other deals we can finally make with other trading partners. They

:04:35.:04:37.

have higher growth than virtually every other EU country apart from

:04:38.:04:41.

Germany. It is sensible as a negotiating position for the

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government to say if there is no deal, we will accept there is no

:04:46.:04:49.

deal. We're not frightened of no deal. It was clear from what David

:04:50.:04:53.

Davies was saying that there will be a vote in parliament at the end of

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the process but there won't be a third option to send the government

:04:57.:05:01.

back to try to get a better deal. It is either the deal or we leave

:05:02.:05:06.

without a deal. In reality, that third option will be there. We don't

:05:07.:05:10.

know yet whether there will be a majority for the deal if they get

:05:11.:05:15.

one. What we do know now is that there isn't a majority in the

:05:16.:05:20.

Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are absolutely clear that no deal is

:05:21.:05:25.

worth then a bad deal. I've heard enough Tory MPs say the same thing.

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But they wouldn't get no deal through. When it comes to this vote,

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if whatever deal is rejected, there will then be, one way or another,

:05:38.:05:41.

the third option raised of go back again. But who gets to decide what

:05:42.:05:45.

is a bad deal? The British people will have a different idea than the

:05:46.:05:49.

two thirds of the Remain supporting MPs in the Commons. In terms of the

:05:50.:05:56.

vote, the Commons. Surely, if the Commons, which is what matters here,

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if the Commons were to vote against the deal as negotiated by the

:06:01.:06:06.

government, surely that would trigger a general election? If the

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government had recommended the deal, surely the government would then, if

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it still felt strongly about the deal, if the other 27 had said,

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we're not negotiating, extending it, it would in effect become a second

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referendum on the deal. In effect it would be a no-confidence vote in the

:06:24.:06:26.

government. You've got to assume that unless something massively

:06:27.:06:29.

changes in the opposition before then, the government would feel

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fairly confident about a general election on those terms. Unless the

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deal is hideously bad and obviously basso every vote in the country...

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The prior minister said if it is that bad she would have rather no

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deal. So that eventuality arrives. -- the Prime Minister has said. Not

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a second referendum general election in two years' time. Don't put any

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holidays for! LAUGHTER -- don't look any.

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So the Brexit bill looks likely to clear Parliament this week.

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That depends on the number of Conservative MPs who are prepared

:07:02.:07:05.

to vote against their government on two key issues.

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Theresa May could be in negotiations with our European

:07:08.:07:11.

partners within days, but there may be some

:07:12.:07:13.

wheeler-dealings she has to do with her own MPs, too.

:07:14.:07:15.

Cast your mind back to the beginning of month.

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The bill to trigger Article 50 passed comfortably

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But three Conservatives voted for Labour's amendments to ensure

:07:22.:07:30.

the rights of EU citizens already in the UK.

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Seven Tory MPs voted to force the government to give Parliament

:07:35.:07:37.

a say on the deal struck with the EU before it's finalised.

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But remember those numbers, they're important.

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On the issue of a meaningful vote on a deal, I'm told there might have

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been more rebels had it not been for this assurance from

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I can confirm that the government will bring forward a motion

:07:53.:07:57.

on the final agreement to be approved by both Houses

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And we expect, and intend, that this will happen before

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the European Parliament debates and votes on the final agreement.

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When the government was criticised for reeling back

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from when and what it would offer a vote on.

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The bill then moved into the Lords, where peers passed it

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And the second, that Parliament be given a meaningful vote on the terms

:08:24.:08:31.

of the deal or indeed a vote in the event of there

:08:32.:08:34.

The so-called Brexit bill will return to Commons

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Ministers insist that both amendments would weaken

:08:39.:08:42.

the government's negotiating hand and are seeking to overturn them.

:08:43.:08:45.

But, as ever, politics is a numbers game.

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Theresa May has a working majority of 17.

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On Brexit, though, it's probably higher.

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At least six Labour MPs generally vote with

:08:58.:08:59.

Plus, eight DUP MPs, two from the Ulster Unionist party

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If all Conservatives vote with the government as well,

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Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels are needed for the government to be

:09:10.:09:15.

So, are there rough waters ahead for Theresa May?

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What numbers are we looking at, in terms of a potential rebellion?

:09:23.:09:24.

I think we're looking at a large number of people who are interested

:09:25.:09:27.

This building is a really important building.

:09:28.:09:30.

It's symbolic of a huge amount of history.

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And for it not to be involved in this momentous time would,

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But he says a clear verbal statement from the government on a meaningful

:09:37.:09:43.

vote on any deal would be enough to get most Tory MPs onside.

:09:44.:09:49.

It was already said about David Jones.

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It's slightly unravelled a little bit during

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I think this is an opportunity to really get that clarity

:09:54.:09:58.

through so that we can all vote for Article 50 and get

:09:59.:10:01.

We've have spoken to several Tory MPs who say they are minded to vote

:10:02.:10:05.

One said the situation was sad and depressing.

:10:06.:10:09.

The other said that the whips must be worried because they don't

:10:10.:10:12.

A minister told me Downing Street was looking again at the possibility

:10:13.:10:19.

of offering a vote in the event of no deal being reached.

:10:20.:10:23.

But that its position was unlikely to change.

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And, anyway, government sources have told the Sunday Politics they're not

:10:26.:10:27.

That those Tory MPs who didn't back either amendment the first time

:10:28.:10:35.

round would look silly if they did, this time.

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It would have to be a pretty hefty lot of people changing their minds

:10:39.:10:41.

about things that have already been discussed in quite a lot of detail,

:10:42.:10:44.

last time it was in the Commons, for things to be reversed this time.

:10:45.:10:48.

There's no doubt that a number of Tory MPs are very concerned.

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Labour are pessimistic about the chances of enough Tory

:10:53.:10:54.

rebels backing either of the amendments in the Commons.

:10:55.:10:57.

The important thing, I think, is to focus on the fact

:10:58.:11:00.

that this is the last chance to have a say on this.

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If they're going to vote with us, Monday is the time to do it.

:11:04.:11:07.

Assuming the bill does pass the Commons unamended,

:11:08.:11:09.

it will go back to the Lord's on Monday night where Labour peers

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have already indicated they won't block it again.

:11:13.:11:15.

It means that the Brexit bill would become law and Theresa May

:11:16.:11:19.

would be free to trigger Article 50 within days.

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Her own deadline was the end of this month.

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But one minister told me there were advantages to doing it early.

:11:25.:11:31.

We're joined now from Nottingham by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry.

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She's previously voted against the government on the question

:11:35.:11:36.

of whether Parliament should have a final say over the EU deal.

:11:37.:11:43.

Anna Soubry, I think it was clear this morning from David Davies that

:11:44.:11:49.

what he means by meaningful vote is not what you mean by a meaningful

:11:50.:11:52.

vote. He thinks the choice for Parliament would be to either vote

:11:53.:11:57.

for the deal and if Parliament doesn't, we leave on World Trade

:11:58.:12:00.

Organisation rules, on a bare-bones structure. In the end, will he

:12:01.:12:07.

accept that in the Commons tomorrow? No, because my problem and I don't

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think it is a problem, but my problem, the government's problem is

:12:12.:12:15.

that what I want is then to answer this question. What happens in the

:12:16.:12:19.

event of their not being any deal? David Davies made it very clear that

:12:20.:12:23.

in the event of there being no deal, Parliament would have no say. It

:12:24.:12:28.

means through your elected representatives, the people of this

:12:29.:12:31.

country would have no say on what happens if the government doesn't

:12:32.:12:36.

get a deal. I think the request that Parliament should have a say on

:12:37.:12:39.

Parliamentary sovereignty, is perfectly reasonable. That is what I

:12:40.:12:44.

want David to say. If he says that, I won't be rebelling. If he does...

:12:45.:12:50.

They have refused to say that. Sorry. If he continues to say what

:12:51.:12:55.

he said the BBC this morning, which means that the vote will be either

:12:56.:13:01.

to accept the as negotiated or to leave on WTO rules, will you rebel

:13:02.:13:07.

on that question but no, no, sorry, if there's a deal, Parliament will

:13:08.:13:11.

have a say. So that's fine. And we will see what the deal is and we

:13:12.:13:15.

will look at the options two years down the road. When who knows

:13:16.:13:19.

what'll happen in our economy and world economy. That is one matter

:13:20.:13:23.

which I am content on. The Prime Minister, a woman of her word has

:13:24.:13:26.

said that in the event of a deal, Parliament will vote on any deal. I

:13:27.:13:33.

don't difficulty. To clarify, I will come onto that. These are important

:13:34.:13:37.

matters. I want to clarify, not argue with you. You are content that

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if there is a deal, we will come under no deal in a second, but if

:13:41.:13:44.

there is a deal, you are content with the choice of being able to

:13:45.:13:51.

vote for that deal or leaving on WTO terms? No, you're speculating as to

:13:52.:13:53.

what might happen in two years' time. What the options might be.

:13:54.:13:59.

Personally I find it inconceivable that the government will come back

:14:00.:14:02.

with a rubbish deal. They will either come back with a good deal,

:14:03.:14:06.

which I won't have a problem with or they will come back with no deal. To

:14:07.:14:10.

speculate about coming back with a deal, there is a variety of options.

:14:11.:14:14.

I understand that that is what the Lord amendments are about. They are

:14:15.:14:18.

about a vote at the end of the process. Do forgive me, the Lords

:14:19.:14:26.

amendment is not the same that I've voted for in Parliament. What we

:14:27.:14:28.

call the Chris Leslie amendment, which was talking about whatever the

:14:29.:14:31.

agreement is, whatever happens at the end of the negotiations,

:14:32.:14:34.

Parliament will have a vote. Parliament will have a say. The

:14:35.:14:37.

Lords amendment is a bit more technical. It is the principle of no

:14:38.:14:43.

deal that is agitating us. Let's clarify on this. They are

:14:44.:14:47.

complicated matters. What do you want the government to say? What do

:14:48.:14:51.

you want David Davis to say tomorrow on what should the Parliamentary

:14:52.:14:56.

process should be if there is no deal? Quite. I want a commitment

:14:57.:15:00.

from him that in the event of no deal, it will come into Parliament

:15:01.:15:03.

and Parliament will determine what happens next. It could be that in

:15:04.:15:11.

the event of no deal, the best thing is for us to jump off the cliff into

:15:12.:15:14.

WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely but that might be the reality. There

:15:15.:15:18.

might be other alternatives. Most importantly, including saying to the

:15:19.:15:23.

government, go back, carry on. The question that everybody has to ask

:15:24.:15:25.

is, why won't the government give My fear is what this is about is

:15:26.:15:36.

asked deliberately, not the Prime Minister, but others deliberately

:15:37.:15:41.

ensuring we have no deal and no deal pretty soon and in that event, we

:15:42.:15:46.

jumped off the cliff onto WTO tariffs and nobody in this country

:15:47.:15:50.

and the people of this country do not have a say. My constituents did

:15:51.:15:57.

not vote for hard Brexit. You do not want the government to

:15:58.:16:01.

have the ability if there is no deal to automatically fall back on the

:16:02.:16:07.

WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as that. We are now speculating about

:16:08.:16:12.

what will happen in two years. I want to find out what happens

:16:13.:16:18.

tomorrow. What will you do if you don't get that assurance? I will

:16:19.:16:22.

either abstain, or I will vote to keep this amendment within the Bill.

:16:23.:16:27.

I will either vote against my government, which I do not do

:16:28.:16:32.

likely, I have never voted against my government until the Chris Leslie

:16:33.:16:35.

clause when the Bill was going through, or I will abstain, which

:16:36.:16:39.

has pretty much the same effect because it comes into the Commons

:16:40.:16:43.

with both amendments so you have positively to vote to take the map.

:16:44.:16:49.

Can you give us an idea of how many like-minded conservative colleagues

:16:50.:16:54.

there are. I genuinely do not know. You must talk to each other. I do

:16:55.:17:00.

not talk to every member of my party. You know people who are

:17:01.:17:07.

like-minded. I do. I am not doing numbers games. I know you want that

:17:08.:17:11.

but I genuinely do not know the figure. I think this is an

:17:12.:17:17.

uncomfortable truth. People have to understand what has happened in our

:17:18.:17:23.

country, two particular newspapers, creating an atmosphere and setting

:17:24.:17:27.

an agenda and I think many people are rather concerned, some

:17:28.:17:30.

frightened, to put their head over the parapet. There are many millions

:17:31.:17:36.

of people who feel totally excluded from this process. Many of them

:17:37.:17:41.

voted to remain. And they have lost their voice. We have covered the

:17:42.:17:44.

ground I wanted to. We're joined now by the Ukip MEP

:17:45.:17:45.

and former leader Nigel Farage. Article 50 triggered, we are leaving

:17:46.:17:58.

the EU, the single market and the customs union. What is left you to

:17:59.:18:02.

complain about? All of that will happen and hopefully we will get the

:18:03.:18:06.

triggered this week which is good news. What worries me a little I'm

:18:07.:18:10.

not sure the government recognises how strong their handers. At the

:18:11.:18:15.

summit in Brussels, the word in the corridors is that we are prepared to

:18:16.:18:18.

give away fishing waters as a bargaining chip and the worry is

:18:19.:18:22.

what deal we get. Are we leaving, yes I am pleased about that. You are

:18:23.:18:27.

under relevant voice in the deal because the deal will be voted on in

:18:28.:18:32.

Parliament and you have one MP. You are missing the point, the real vote

:18:33.:18:36.

in parliament is not in London but Strasbourg. This is perhaps the

:18:37.:18:40.

biggest obstacle the British Government faces. Not what happens

:18:41.:18:45.

in the Commons that the end of the two years, the European Parliament

:18:46.:18:50.

could veto the deal. What that means is people need to adopt a different

:18:51.:18:54.

approach. We do not need to be lobbying in the corridors of

:18:55.:18:57.

Brussels to get a good deal, we need is a country to be out there talking

:18:58.:19:03.

to the German car workers and Belgian chocolate makers, putting as

:19:04.:19:07.

much pressure as we can on politicians from across Europe to

:19:08.:19:11.

come to a sensible arrangement. It is in their interests more than

:19:12.:19:16.

ours. In what way is the vision of Brexit set out by David Davis any

:19:17.:19:23.

different from your own? I am delighted there are people now

:19:24.:19:26.

adopting the position I argued for many years. Good. But now... Like

:19:27.:19:34.

Douglas Carswell, he said he found David Davis' performers this morning

:19:35.:19:40.

reassuring. It is. And just as when Theresa May was Home Secretary every

:19:41.:19:45.

performance she gave was hugely reassuring. She was seen to be a

:19:46.:19:48.

heroine after her conference speeches and then did not deliver. I

:19:49.:19:55.

am concerned that even before we start we are making concessions. You

:19:56.:20:01.

described in the EU's divorce bill demands, 60 billion euros is floated

:20:02.:20:04.

around. You said it is laughable and I understand that. Do you maintain

:20:05.:20:11.

that we will not have to pay a penny to leave? It is nine months since we

:20:12.:20:19.

voted exit and assuming the trigger of Article 50, we would have paid 30

:20:20.:20:25.

billion in since we had a vote. We are still members. But honestly, I

:20:26.:20:28.

do not think there is an appetite for us to pay a massive divorce

:20:29.:20:33.

Bill. There are assets also. Not a penny? There will be some ongoing

:20:34.:20:40.

commitments, but the numbers talked about our 50, ?60 billion, they are

:20:41.:20:46.

frankly laughable. I am trying to find out if you are prepared to

:20:47.:20:51.

accept some kind of exit cost, it may be nowhere near 60 billion. We

:20:52.:20:56.

have to do a net agreement, the government briefed about our share

:20:57.:20:59.

of the European Union investment bank. Would you accept a

:21:00.:21:06.

transitional arrangement, deal, five, ten billion, as part of the

:21:07.:21:11.

divorce settlement? We are painted net ?30 million every single day at

:21:12.:21:16.

the moment, ?10 billion plus every year. That is just our contribution.

:21:17.:21:21.

We are going to make a massive saving on this. What do you make of

:21:22.:21:27.

what Anna Soubry said, that if there is no deal, and it is being talked

:21:28.:21:33.

about more. Maybe the government managing expectations. There is an

:21:34.:21:36.

expectation we will have a deal, but if there is no deal, that the

:21:37.:21:42.

government cannot just go to WTO rules, but it has to have a vote in

:21:43.:21:47.

parliament? By the time we get to that there will be a general

:21:48.:21:50.

election coming down the tracks and I suspect that if at the end of the

:21:51.:21:55.

two-year process there is no deal and by the way, no deal is a lot

:21:56.:22:00.

better for the nation than where we currently are, because we freed of

:22:01.:22:04.

regulations and able to make our own deals in the world. I think what

:22:05.:22:08.

would happen, and if Parliament said it did not back, at the end of the

:22:09.:22:15.

negotiation a general election would happen quickly. According to reports

:22:16.:22:21.

this morning, one of your most senior aides has passed a dossier to

:22:22.:22:27.

police claiming Tories committed electoral fraud in Thanet South, the

:22:28.:22:31.

seat contested in the election. What evidence to you have? I read that in

:22:32.:22:37.

the newspapers as you have. I am not going to comment on it. Will you not

:22:38.:22:40.

aware of the contents of the dossier? I am not aware of the

:22:41.:22:47.

dossier. He was your election strategists. I am dubious as to

:22:48.:22:53.

whether this dossier exists at all. Perhaps the newspapers have got this

:22:54.:22:58.

wrong. Concerns about the downloading of data the took place

:22:59.:23:06.

in that constituency, there are. Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it

:23:07.:23:12.

done by your MP to give information to the Tories, do you have evidence

:23:13.:23:18.

about? We have evidence Mr Carswell downloaded information, we have no

:23:19.:23:25.

evidence what he did with it. It is not just your aide who has been

:23:26.:23:29.

making allegations against the Conservatives in Thanet South and

:23:30.:23:35.

other seats, if the evidence was to be substantial, and if it was to

:23:36.:23:42.

result in another by-election being called an Thanet South had to be

:23:43.:23:46.

fought again, would you be the Ukip candidate? I probably would. You

:23:47.:23:51.

probably would? Yes. Just probably? Just probably. It would be your

:23:52.:23:57.

eighth attempt. Winning seats in parliament under first past the post

:23:58.:24:00.

is not the only way to change politics in Britain and I would like

:24:01.:24:03.

to think I proved that. Let's go back to Anna Soubry. The implication

:24:04.:24:09.

of what we were saying on the panel at the start of the show and what

:24:10.:24:13.

Nigel Farage was saying there would be that if at the end of the process

:24:14.:24:19.

whatever the vote, if the government were to lose it, it would provoke a

:24:20.:24:23.

general election properly. I think that would be right. Let's get real.

:24:24.:24:28.

The government is not going to come to Parliament with anything other

:24:29.:24:31.

than something it believes is a good deal and if it rejected it, would be

:24:32.:24:40.

unlikely, there would be a de facto vote of no confidence and it would

:24:41.:24:43.

be within the fixed term Parliaments act and that be it. The problem is,

:24:44.:24:49.

more likely, because of the story put up about the 50 billion, 60

:24:50.:24:54.

billion and you look at the way things are flagged up that both the

:24:55.:24:58.

Prime Minister and Boris Johnson saying, we should be asking them for

:24:59.:25:02.

money back, I think the big fear and the fear I have is we will be

:25:03.:25:08.

crashing out in six months. You think we could leave as quickly as

:25:09.:25:13.

six months. Explain that. I think they will stoke up the demand from

:25:14.:25:19.

the EU for 50, 60 billion back and my real concern is that within six

:25:20.:25:23.

months, where we're not making much progress, maybe nine months, and

:25:24.:25:28.

people are getting increasingly fed up with the EU because they are told

:25:29.:25:32.

it wants unreasonable demands, and then the crash. I think what is

:25:33.:25:36.

happening is the government is putting in place scaffolding at the

:25:37.:25:41.

bottom of the cliff to break our fall when we come to fall off that

:25:42.:25:46.

cliff and I think many in government are preparing not for a two-year

:25:47.:25:51.

process, but six, to nine months, off the cliff, out we go. That is my

:25:52.:25:56.

fear. That is interesting. I have not heard that express before by

:25:57.:26:01.

someone in your position. I suspect you have made Nigel Farage's date.

:26:02.:26:08.

It is a lovely thought. I would say to Anna Soubry she is out of date

:26:09.:26:14.

with this. 40 years ago there was a good argument for joining the common

:26:15.:26:17.

market because tariffs around the world was so high. That has changed

:26:18.:26:22.

with the World Trade Organisation. We are leaving the EU and rejoining

:26:23.:26:26.

a great big world and it is exciting. She was giving an

:26:27.:26:35.

interesting perspective on what could happen in nine months rather

:26:36.:26:36.

than two years. I thank you both. It was Philip Hammond's first

:26:37.:26:40.

budget on Wednesday - billed as a steady-as-she-goes

:26:41.:26:42.

affair, but turned out to cause uproar after the Chancellor appeared

:26:43.:26:49.

to contradict a Tory manifesto commitment with an increase

:26:50.:26:51.

in national insurance contributions. The aim was to address what some see

:26:52.:26:53.

as an imbalance in the tax system, where employees pay

:26:54.:27:02.

more National Insurance The controversy centres

:27:03.:27:04.

on increasing the so-called class 4 rate for the self-employed who make

:27:05.:27:07.

a profit of more than ?8,060 a year. It will go up in stages

:27:08.:27:10.

from 9% to 11% in 2019. The changes mean that over one

:27:11.:27:17.

and a half million will pay on average ?240 a year

:27:18.:27:20.

more in contributions. Some Conservative MPs were unhappy,

:27:21.:27:25.

with even the Wales Minister saying: "I will apologise to every

:27:26.:27:31.

voter in Wales that read the Conservative manifesto

:27:32.:27:34.

in the 2015 election." The Sun labelled Philip

:27:35.:27:35.

Hammond "spite van man". The Daily Mail called the budget

:27:36.:27:41.

"no laughing matter". By Thursday, Theresa May

:27:42.:27:43.

said the government One of the first things I did

:27:44.:27:46.

as Prime Minister was to commission Matthew Taylor to review the rights

:27:47.:27:52.

and protections that were available to self-employed workers

:27:53.:27:56.

and whether they should be enhanced. People will be able to look

:27:57.:27:59.

at the government paper when we produce it, showing

:28:00.:28:01.

all our changes, and take And, of course, the Chancellor will

:28:02.:28:04.

be speaking, as will his ministers, to MPs, businesspeople and others

:28:05.:28:09.

to listen to the concerns. Well, the man you heard mentioned

:28:10.:28:13.

there, Matthew Taylor, has the job of producing

:28:14.:28:15.

a report into the future Welcome. The Chancellor has decided

:28:16.:28:29.

the self-employed should pay almost the same in National Insurance, not

:28:30.:28:33.

the same but almost, as the employed will stop what is left of your

:28:34.:28:38.

commission? The commission has a broader frame of reference and we

:28:39.:28:41.

are interested in the quality of work in the economy at the heart of

:28:42.:28:48.

what I hope will be proposing is a set of shifts that will improve the

:28:49.:28:53.

quality of that work so we have an economy where all work is fair and

:28:54.:28:57.

decent and all jobs give people scope for development and

:28:58.:29:00.

fulfilment. The issue of taxes a small part. You will cover that? We

:29:01.:29:09.

will, because the tax system and employment regulation system drive

:29:10.:29:11.

particular behaviours in our labour market. You approve I think of the

:29:12.:29:17.

general direction of this policy of raising National Insurance on the

:29:18.:29:22.

self-employed. Taxing them in return perhaps for more state benefits. Why

:29:23.:29:28.

are so many others on the left against it from Tim Farron to John

:29:29.:29:32.

McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular and it is the role of the opposition

:29:33.:29:36.

parties to make capital from unpopular tax rises. I think as tax

:29:37.:29:40.

rises go this is broadly progressive. There are self-employed

:29:41.:29:44.

people on low incomes and they will be better off. It is economic league

:29:45.:29:49.

rational because the reason for the difference in National Insurance --

:29:50.:29:52.

economically. It was to do with state entitlements. The government

:29:53.:29:58.

is consulting about paid parental leave. A series of governments have

:29:59.:30:04.

not been good about thinking about medium sustainability of the tax

:30:05.:30:08.

base. Self-employment is growing. But it is eroding the tax base. It

:30:09.:30:12.

is important to address those issues. A number of think tanks have

:30:13.:30:19.

said this is a progressive move. Yet, a number of left-wing

:30:20.:30:24.

politicians have been against it. And a number of Tories have said

:30:25.:30:30.

this is a progressive move and not a Tory government move, the balance of

:30:31.:30:34.

you will pay more tax, but you will get more state benefits is not a

:30:35.:30:38.

Tory approach to things. That a Tory approach will be you will pay less

:30:39.:30:42.

tax but entitled to fewer benefits as well.

:30:43.:30:45.

I preferred in and policies to politics -- I prefer policies. When

:30:46.:30:55.

people look at the policy and when they look the fact that there is no

:30:56.:30:59.

real historical basis for that big national insurance differential,

:31:00.:31:01.

they see it is a sensible policy. I don't have to deal with the

:31:02.:31:06.

politics. There has been a huge growth in self-employment from the

:31:07.:31:09.

turn of the millennium. It's been strongest amongst older workers,

:31:10.:31:11.

women part-timers. Do you have any idea, do you have

:31:12.:31:19.

the data in your commission that could tell us how many are taking

:31:20.:31:23.

self-employment because they like the flexibility and they like the

:31:24.:31:28.

tax advantages that come with it, too, or they are being forced into

:31:29.:31:33.

it by employers who don't want the extra costs of employment? Do we

:31:34.:31:37.

know the difference? We do, broadly. Most surveys on self-employment and

:31:38.:31:44.

flexible forms of employment suggest about two thirds to three quarters

:31:45.:31:46.

enjoy it, they like the flexibility, they like the autonomy and about a

:31:47.:31:51.

third to one quarter are less happy. That tends to be because they would

:31:52.:31:55.

like to have a full-time permanent job. It is not necessary that they

:31:56.:31:57.

don't enjoy what they are doing, they would like to do other things.

:31:58.:32:02.

And some of the protections that come with it? Yes. There are some

:32:03.:32:06.

people who are forced into southern employees by high-risk but also some

:32:07.:32:10.

people feel like they can't get a proper job as it were. --

:32:11.:32:14.

self-employment by people who hire them. It is on the narrow matter of

:32:15.:32:20.

tax revenues but if you are employed on ?32,000 the state will take over

:32:21.:32:24.

?6,000 in national insurance contributions, that is quite chunky.

:32:25.:32:28.

If you are self-employed it is ?2300. But the big difference

:32:29.:32:33.

between those figures isn't what the employee is paying, it's the

:32:34.:32:39.

employer's contributions up to almost 14%, and cupped for as much

:32:40.:32:43.

as you are paid. What do you do about employers' contributions for

:32:44.:32:52.

the self employed? -- it is uncapped for as much. What I recommend is

:32:53.:32:56.

that we should probably move from taxing employment to taxing labour.

:32:57.:33:00.

We should probably have a more level playing field so it doesn't really

:33:01.:33:04.

matter... Explained that I thought it was the same thing. If you are a

:33:05.:33:08.

self-employed gardener, you are a different tax regime to a gardener

:33:09.:33:13.

who works for a gardening firm. On the individual side and on the firm

:33:14.:33:21.

side. As we see new business models, so-called gig working, partly with

:33:22.:33:24.

technology, we need a more level playing field saying that we're

:33:25.:33:29.

taxing people's work, not the form in which they deliver that. That is

:33:30.:33:34.

part of the reason we have seen the growth of particular business

:33:35.:33:36.

models. They are innovative and creative and partly driven by the

:33:37.:33:41.

fact that if you can describe yourself as self-employed there are

:33:42.:33:45.

tax advantages. Coming out in June? Will you come back and talk to us?

:33:46.:33:47.

Yes. We say goodbye to viewers

:33:48.:33:49.

in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:33:50.:33:54.

we'll be talking to the former Tory MP who was the root

:33:55.:33:59.

of Donald Trump's allegation that he had been put

:34:00.:34:05.

under surveillance by Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

:34:06.:34:18.

in Northern Ireland. After a week of talks at Stormont

:34:19.:34:20.

and a threat of another election, I'll be asking the Fianna Fail

:34:21.:34:23.

TD, Brendan Smith, how This week saw a controversial

:34:24.:34:25.

Westminster budget but with still no sign of any kind of

:34:26.:34:29.

budget at Stormont - And with their thoughts

:34:30.:34:31.

throughout, I'm joined by the Irish News Editor,

:34:32.:34:35.

Noel Doran, and the News Letter's One week of negotiations done

:34:36.:34:38.

and two more to go before the Secretary of State finds himself

:34:39.:34:50.

calling a second snap Direct rule is another

:34:51.:34:53.

possibility or thirdly, The Sinn Fein President,

:34:54.:34:56.

Gerry Adams, who's been at Stormont most of the week,

:34:57.:35:01.

said this morning he thinks that The Government in London on the back

:35:02.:35:04.

of Brexit and on the back of its own policy wants to dismantle

:35:05.:35:20.

lots of the human rights aspects What we need, this is what our focus

:35:21.:35:23.

is, and implementation process we are involved in,

:35:24.:35:33.

those agreements, the different elements of a deal, the human

:35:34.:35:35.

rights elements of it, the bill of rights, these different

:35:36.:35:37.

commitments which have been made but not kept need to be delivered

:35:38.:35:40.

on and if that happens then the institutions will go back

:35:41.:35:43.

in place and we will continue to do our best to

:35:44.:35:46.

work for the people. And with me now is the Fianna

:35:47.:35:55.

Fail TD Brendan Smith who's been keeping a close eye

:35:56.:35:58.

on developments here. You sit on a Dail committee

:35:59.:36:00.

on the implementation of the 1998 Agreement -

:36:01.:36:03.

Mr Adams was talking there about the need for delivery

:36:04.:36:05.

on outstanding commitments. Do you share his view that those

:36:06.:36:07.

issues need to be resolved before I think all of those issues are

:36:08.:36:21.

outstanding from the good credit agreement and success of agreements

:36:22.:36:24.

and they should be implemented and I think Mr Adams referred to Brexit

:36:25.:36:28.

and the issues confronting us and the knock-on effect of the good

:36:29.:36:33.

credit agreement and that is why it is absolutely essential that it was

:36:34.:36:38.

a agency is attached to having the Executive back in place and a

:36:39.:36:41.

working assembly and I think the substantial increase in the time-out

:36:42.:36:46.

showed the electorate of Northern Ireland want an assembly that works,

:36:47.:36:51.

wants an Executive that works and with the issues facing every family

:36:52.:36:52.

in Northern Ireland. Mr Adams says it's perfectly

:36:53.:36:53.

possible that the politicians can do Do you think that's what Sinn Fein

:36:54.:36:56.

wants at this stage? I would think so and I sincerely

:36:57.:37:07.

hope the DUP and the other parties work to the mandate that has been

:37:08.:37:12.

given to all of us, the mandate from the endorsement of the Good Friday

:37:13.:37:17.

Agreement and referendum north and south in May 19 98. It is beholden

:37:18.:37:21.

to all of us and parliamentary politics to put those institutions

:37:22.:37:26.

in place, working for the betterment of the people of society in Northern

:37:27.:37:28.

Ireland and that all of our island. There's been a lot of speculation

:37:29.:37:47.

that Sinn Fein might be keen to play the long game in the Stormont talks

:37:48.:37:50.

to see how things pan out and to enable the party

:37:51.:37:54.

to consolidate its position in the Republic with the possibility

:37:55.:37:55.

of another election very soon. They have had success in the recent

:37:56.:38:01.

system elections as have the SDLP as well but we have another poll next

:38:02.:38:03.

weekend could have different results. During the course of the

:38:04.:38:12.

previous, every second Sunday Sinn Fein were ahead of Fina Phil Fianna

:38:13.:38:20.

Fail and the polls and that is the only poll that I give any credence

:38:21.:38:27.

to. That is top of Mr Adams being potentially in a position, would

:38:28.:38:34.

Fianna Fail watch with Sinn Fein if that was the way to produce a stable

:38:35.:38:43.

Government and the south? The parties initiated by Sinn Fein are

:38:44.:38:46.

not compatible with the parties of Fianna Fail. We will go to the next

:38:47.:38:53.

election with our manifesto programme and 60 endorsement to grow

:38:54.:38:57.

our party. We went from 20 seats to 44 in the last election and we hope

:38:58.:39:00.

to increase that substantially again. There is no election on the

:39:01.:39:08.

horizon and the south. Do you really think not? There will be a new

:39:09.:39:14.

leader of Fine Gaelz sooner rather than later and then the Montez or

:39:15.:39:19.

her own mandate. The other is elected as the new leader or what to

:39:20.:39:27.

stay in the office as long as possible. Fianna Fail have given a

:39:28.:39:36.

commitment and that brings us up to 2019 and that'll be honoured unless

:39:37.:39:44.

Fine Gael mess up and honour the agreement.

:39:45.:39:49.

Charlie Flanagan says some of the issues still to be resolved

:39:50.:39:51.

go right back to 1998 - so how would Fianna Fail handle

:39:52.:39:54.

For Charlie Flanagan has been doing this week is emphasising the need to

:39:55.:40:11.

deal with the legacy issues. James Brokenshire's comments this week and

:40:12.:40:15.

he would release funding to speed up the increase, to deal with the hard

:40:16.:40:19.

ship and the grief that families have suffered for far too long,

:40:20.:40:22.

legacy issues have to be dealt with and be have to have an implement it

:40:23.:40:27.

in time to deal with all of these outstanding issues. I think that is

:40:28.:40:31.

a necessary incremental step forward to ensure that we get in place the

:40:32.:40:34.

Executive before that three-week period is out. Would you and Fianna

:40:35.:40:43.

Fail support Sinn Fein's veto on Arlene Foster vitamin? What I would

:40:44.:40:49.

say is to deal with the legacy issues and other outstanding issues

:40:50.:40:55.

from the good Freddie agreement and the last thing in any country would

:40:56.:41:01.

you have more than one party and Government as the personnel and the

:41:02.:41:04.

positions, that should be the last eight to be dealt with by both

:41:05.:41:07.

parties. I think both the DUP and Sinn Fein and other parties should

:41:08.:41:12.

be putting a proper programme for Government. Let us remember in the

:41:13.:41:17.

middle of November and the Irish News, Arlene Foster and Martin

:41:18.:41:22.

McGuinness had an article read this book about both other parties going

:41:23.:41:26.

for the long haul, no grandstanding or gimmicks. We have moved on since

:41:27.:41:35.

then? We have but if we could achieve in 1998 the Good Friday

:41:36.:41:40.

Agreement after more than 30 years of mayhem, surely after a few weeks

:41:41.:41:45.

of difficulties those parties should reach an agreement and the issues of

:41:46.:41:48.

all the people in Ireland are very difficult, we have the Brexit issue

:41:49.:41:51.

hitting us already and we don't have to be two years for the negative

:41:52.:41:55.

impact of Brexit to hurt us. It is set as in the broader economy

:41:56.:42:01.

already, the area I know best and we have here a non-functioning

:42:02.:42:03.

Executive, that is not what the people of Northern Ireland want.

:42:04.:42:10.

Cross of some sort of resolution cannot be reached, would you support

:42:11.:42:15.

joint authority? The only thing on the agenda is to put in place the

:42:16.:42:18.

institutions that are all mandated by the people north and south and

:42:19.:42:23.

the referendum of 1998, I don't countenance anything else and I

:42:24.:42:27.

would be optimistic that that can be achieved. There is a budget to be

:42:28.:42:31.

put in place, there are health and education issues confronting rural

:42:32.:42:38.

communities farmers and I emphasise again, I cheer the all-party

:42:39.:42:43.

committee and participated in the Good Friday Agreement and we are in

:42:44.:42:47.

crossed in dealing with the Brexit issues as we work on a daily basis,

:42:48.:42:51.

that's what the assembly should be doing to stop Cross Arlene Foster

:42:52.:42:58.

said in an interview it is a great opportunity, Brexit as a great

:42:59.:43:01.

opportunity for the UK Government and Northern Ireland. The farmers I

:43:02.:43:09.

talk two in Fermanagh are worried the boulders their payments and let

:43:10.:43:13.

us remember that almost 90% of farming from Northern Ireland is

:43:14.:43:18.

dependent on a funding transfer from Europe. No Tory or Labour Government

:43:19.:43:21.

in Westminster will substitute that payment. Thank you.

:43:22.:43:26.

Gerry Adams isn't the only local politician making the most

:43:27.:43:28.

Arlene Foster has given an interview to Sky News in which she says

:43:29.:43:32.

she has not considered resigning as DUP leader following

:43:33.:43:34.

Mrs Foster has declined to be interviewed by the BBC,

:43:35.:43:38.

but speaking to Sky she insisted the result has not been disastrous

:43:39.:43:41.

for the party but is, in fact, a wake-up call for unionism.

:43:42.:43:49.

As well as that, the national turnout increased, a lot of people

:43:50.:43:52.

have been talking to me since last Friday since the results

:43:53.:43:55.

were becoming known and a great sense of shock and how could this

:43:56.:43:58.

happen and I think it has been a bit of a wake-up call in terms

:43:59.:44:02.

Have to continue with the negotiations and the spirit in which

:44:03.:44:24.

they have begun and I hope that will happen and I hope we get to a

:44:25.:44:27.

situation where we can bring about the return of the devolved

:44:28.:44:29.

administration as quickly as possible.

:44:30.:44:30.

Arlene Foster speaking there to Sky News -

:44:31.:44:32.

and with me now to reflect on what both she and Gerry Adams

:44:33.:44:35.

have had to say, I'm joined by the Editor of the Irish News,

:44:36.:44:38.

Noel Doran, and the News Letter's political editor, Sam McBride.

:44:39.:44:41.

Sam, we haven't heard a great deal from the DUP leader

:44:42.:44:43.

since the election - so were there any surprises

:44:44.:44:46.

Note. She is very much in the same tone she has had a new last very

:44:47.:44:59.

faint and from and is DUP supporters would see it in some cases, very

:45:00.:45:06.

strong. It is from opposition she is being asked questions such as is

:45:07.:45:09.

this a disastrous election for unionism and she is trying to see it

:45:10.:45:12.

is not and it is difficult to spend it in that way when you look at how

:45:13.:45:17.

many seats they lost here, and she is in a position where she can see

:45:18.:45:22.

it's been a disaster but most people within the DUP looking at saying

:45:23.:45:23.

that is exactly what it is. She clearly sees herself

:45:24.:45:25.

as the leader of unionism with a big job to do in terms of the continuing

:45:26.:45:28.

negotiations and in shaping relationships within the broader

:45:29.:45:31.

unionist family at what is clearly There is no doubt about that but I

:45:32.:45:44.

suspect the people most released few Arlene Foster is intending to stay

:45:45.:45:46.

in her post will be Sinn Fein because she has become their

:45:47.:45:51.

greatest asset. Not so long ago Sinn Fein were quite a difficult position

:45:52.:45:57.

with a crisp confused response to RHI contradicting each other in

:45:58.:46:04.

public. Everything has changed utterly, they have the wind behind

:46:05.:46:06.

their sales no and in a really strong position and I take Brendan

:46:07.:46:10.

's point about polls but they have been given a big left and the south

:46:11.:46:14.

surviving Arlene position with all that she represents give them a

:46:15.:46:23.

considerable advantage. Do you think our readership is secure? She seems

:46:24.:46:31.

to have faced that down at a meeting last Tuesday and I think we may see

:46:32.:46:34.

still significant changes in the backroom team with the DUP there but

:46:35.:46:38.

at this point it is very much business as usual. And very much no

:46:39.:46:43.

chance of her taking humble pie that Ian Paisley Junior was suggesting

:46:44.:46:44.

she should take. Meantime Gerry Adams has also taken

:46:45.:46:46.

to the airwaves today. What do you make of how

:46:47.:46:48.

he's playing his hand? He is in a very strong position. It

:46:49.:46:56.

has been suggested in the past that he is never a person to beastie

:46:57.:46:59.

opportunity provided by a good crisis and he is certainly playing

:47:00.:47:03.

his cards very well at the moment but it almost suits him to sit tight

:47:04.:47:07.

and let the institutions go on hold for a prolonged period, that seems

:47:08.:47:11.

to be very much playing to the wishes of the Sinn Fein electorate

:47:12.:47:15.

and the widest nationalists electorate as well because the

:47:16.:47:18.

administration at Stormont and become very unpopular and seemed to

:47:19.:47:21.

be acting in the interests of one side of the committee rather than

:47:22.:47:25.

the entire community sort of Gerry Adams does what he is doing no evil

:47:26.:47:28.

be in a very strong position for quite some time. Gerry Adams and

:47:29.:47:37.

Sinn Fein major players on both side of the border? That's right and for

:47:38.:47:42.

the first time Sinn Fein are ahead of Fine Gael as the second party in

:47:43.:47:46.

the south, that may not be accurate at may just be an aberration but to

:47:47.:47:51.

be up for Mac points after what has happened certainly suggest that what

:47:52.:47:53.

has happened here is perhaps having an impact south of the border. Thank

:47:54.:47:54.

you. As the Chancellor, Philip Hammond,

:47:55.:48:00.

deals with the backlash against Wednesday's budget -

:48:01.:48:02.

the lack of a budget With no Executive and no budget,

:48:03.:48:04.

are public services starting I'm joined by Professor Neil Gibson,

:48:05.:48:08.

director of Ulster University's What are the imprecations of the

:48:09.:48:25.

national insurance changes in Northern Ireland? It was actually

:48:26.:48:31.

quite a quiet budget and the whole focus has been on this change to

:48:32.:48:36.

national insurance contributions for the self-employed. It is a big and

:48:37.:48:39.

important sector in Northern Ireland particularly in construction and

:48:40.:48:42.

farming and will have an effect on those who make reasonable amounts of

:48:43.:48:46.

profit but actually changes to class to mean that people making small at

:48:47.:48:49.

a profitable actually be a little bit better off. That's the

:48:50.:48:57.

Westminster budget which did happen, which is it problem between number

:48:58.:49:02.

ten and number 11, the fact that we do not have a budget and we are

:49:03.:49:07.

about to have a budget and the near future obviously as a cause of major

:49:08.:49:10.

concern here. How worried are you at that prospect? Extremely worried.

:49:11.:49:16.

Normally I would see the short-term effects are fairly modest, there

:49:17.:49:20.

isn't a watt of legislation about to be passed but right now we have some

:49:21.:49:26.

very important matters, devolution and corporation tax and of course

:49:27.:49:30.

the budget negotiations, who is when to fight Northern Ireland's, without

:49:31.:49:36.

an Executive there to do so. In the long run all our competitors and the

:49:37.:49:40.

rest of the UK are making progress and investing in roads and funding

:49:41.:49:45.

their education systems and B are all slipping slowly behind and it is

:49:46.:49:48.

about like putting on weight, you might not protest the immediate

:49:49.:49:52.

effect but eventually end if you used a Rubel finally fallen further

:49:53.:49:54.

behind in the competitive race. The deadline to get a budget

:49:55.:50:00.

on the books is 29th March - How do Government compare

:50:01.:50:14.

departments continue to deliver services and over the next few

:50:15.:50:19.

months? That would be quite as alarming as it seems. They will have

:50:20.:50:24.

most of the money to operate with any shot run from July but we don't

:50:25.:50:28.

they suspend all the money in the short run and I don't think anyone

:50:29.:50:31.

should panic that our public services will fall into crisis. If

:50:32.:50:39.

you get to July and it is 95%, that is a 5% cut. That is only an interim

:50:40.:50:43.

measure and if we get that far and still haven't agreed enviable mix

:50:44.:50:48.

different arrangements but what prevents is as reallocating money

:50:49.:50:51.

across different priorities and direct revenue look at the health

:50:52.:50:56.

and is education, we need to have those strategic conversations about

:50:57.:51:01.

where to spend our money. Health consumes such a huge amount of

:51:02.:51:04.

budget and education as a potential problem and we would have the

:51:05.:51:09.

capacity and obligations for local Government. The fact that we saw

:51:10.:51:15.

Theresa May spending a lot of the time of the budget excluding how

:51:16.:51:18.

expense of public services are getting and we are looking at a

:51:19.:51:22.

warrant in which tax rises will have to come and the Executive is not you

:51:23.:51:26.

to decide exactly who shall pay those tax increases so if we fall

:51:27.:51:29.

behind, we would have anyone else to blame for ourselves for not being

:51:30.:51:34.

there to make those decisions. They do you think this situation makes us

:51:35.:51:38.

look to the outside world? I think is very damaging but the press

:51:39.:51:42.

coverage isn't huge nationally because of their own problems,

:51:43.:51:47.

worried about their own ability to deliver health care so we are not as

:51:48.:51:50.

high up the power to list globally as you might think we are.

:51:51.:51:52.

Are you depressed at what we have just heard? Clearly there is going

:51:53.:52:09.

to be an enormous difficulty over the budget and honestly there is a

:52:10.:52:13.

vacancy for the head of the civil service which is unresolved doesn't

:52:14.:52:16.

exactly help but I'm sure we can stumble on because we have always

:52:17.:52:20.

stumbled on in the past. It's clearly not good Government but we

:52:21.:52:24.

have to focus on the budgets and we are looking very closely at RHI, EU

:52:25.:52:30.

crisis is Brexit and its implications across the board

:52:31.:52:32.

because it is completely transformed attitudes which has had a big impact

:52:33.:52:36.

on the last election, forced nationalists to look again at the

:52:37.:52:40.

Good Friday Agreement and the border issue and Unionists were able to see

:52:41.:52:44.

the border remains in place and naturalists the leg nationalists

:52:45.:52:51.

said it had no effect on day-to-day basis above the Brexit result has

:52:52.:52:55.

thrown it back on peoples faces and force people to confront the whole

:52:56.:52:59.

issue of partition and the constitutional question and the way

:53:00.:53:01.

that almost a generation had slipped away from and that has been a real

:53:02.:53:05.

game changer and that is going to change events for quite some time to

:53:06.:53:11.

come. Unless you see Brexit as a tremendous opportunity which many in

:53:12.:53:14.

the Unionist family do? I think unionism as split on this. Unionism

:53:15.:53:19.

was very firmly in favour of Brexit in terms of people who came out to

:53:20.:53:23.

vote but there is a significant minority within unionism and the DUP

:53:24.:53:27.

who were actually very uneasy about this, he felt that something which

:53:28.:53:33.

appears to be settled constitutionally and also economic

:53:34.:53:35.

league were suddenly going to be thrown up in the area at a point

:53:36.:53:40.

where Scotland was already agitating for change and a separate part of

:53:41.:53:45.

the UK. So fill the dominant position within unionism is to say

:53:46.:53:48.

we want to take back some country, or the rhetoric during the campaign,

:53:49.:53:56.

there is another section of business union unionism is very concerned

:53:57.:53:57.

about what is happening here. Let's pause for a moment and take

:53:58.:54:00.

a look back at the political week say and do political landscape has

:54:01.:54:23.

shifted enormously. I think this is the biggest vote ever cast for any

:54:24.:54:28.

party in an assembly election and that we be perverse to see as a

:54:29.:54:31.

result of that someone should step aside. In the longer term it may

:54:32.:54:39.

well be that bit about this relationship evolves is to a point

:54:40.:54:44.

where you have a broader Unionist movement. What chance ideal? I think

:54:45.:54:51.

there is a sense of urgency at what is at hand here, the significance of

:54:52.:54:55.

the issues we are dealing with. I detect a willingness on the part of

:54:56.:54:59.

all parties involved to sit down and engage constructively. OCD may? Who

:55:00.:55:09.

is she. He is called Gerry Adams. MLAs are at Stormont

:55:10.:55:15.

tomorrow to sign in - but a new Speaker won't be elected

:55:16.:55:23.

and we're not expecting There's no doubt about that and

:55:24.:55:36.

expectations are low and we have always managed to cobble something

:55:37.:55:39.

together in the past but there is a sense that institutions will be on

:55:40.:55:44.

hold for quite some time and that may be something the DUP regret that

:55:45.:55:47.

we are in different circumstances and I think Arlene Foster will have

:55:48.:55:52.

to come to terms with that. And the short term and thus potentially does

:55:53.:55:55.

suit Sinn Fein and the think there is a long term risk for an onerous,

:55:56.:56:00.

we saw how quickly add dominant position for Arlene Foster can

:56:01.:56:04.

quickly fall apart and there is a danger that Sinn Fein in this

:56:05.:56:07.

calculates the risks from not having a budget from returning to direct

:56:08.:56:11.

rule which they have always said was Tory direct rule and I think that

:56:12.:56:15.

was to happen and they are seen as responsible for it and hospitals are

:56:16.:56:18.

in crisis, I think there is a real risk for Republicans in that

:56:19.:56:28.

scenario. The new MLAs Hussein and tomorrow will be mindful of being a

:56:29.:56:35.

sideshow and the real focus seems to be installed? One possible solution

:56:36.:56:43.

is yet another selection which would be the third, I don't think many

:56:44.:56:46.

people are taking it seriously at this stage. The emphasis has to be

:56:47.:56:51.

on talks and consensus but not too many people think it would to be

:56:52.:56:55.

arrived at in the short-term. An election or not? I think from the

:56:56.:57:02.

very start of this process James Brokenshire has held that over their

:57:03.:57:05.

heads as a threat and maybe he will follow through on it.

:57:06.:57:05.

Now the government plans for new grammar schools.

:57:06.:57:20.

The Education Secretary Justine Greening was

:57:21.:57:22.

speaking to a conference of headteachers on Friday.

:57:23.:57:24.

They're normally a pretty polite bunch, but they didn't

:57:25.:57:25.

Broadcasters weren't allowed into the speech,

:57:26.:57:32.

but this was captured on a camera phone.

:57:33.:57:37.

And we have to recognise actually for grammars, in terms of

:57:38.:57:40.

disadvantaged children, that they have, they really

:57:41.:57:44.

do help them close the attainment gap.

:57:45.:57:46.

And at the same time we should recognise that

:57:47.:57:48.

..That parents also want choice for their children and that

:57:49.:57:56.

those schools are often very oversubscribed.

:57:57.:58:03.

I suppose it is a rite of passage for and education secretaries to

:58:04.:58:12.

have this at a head teachers conference book the head are usually

:58:13.:58:17.

more polite. Isn't part of the problem, whether one is for or

:58:18.:58:20.

against the expansion of grammar schools, the government plans are

:58:21.:58:26.

complicated, you cannot sum them up in a sentence. The proof of that is

:58:27.:58:31.

they can still get away with denying they are expanding grammar schools.

:58:32.:58:35.

They will find an alternative formulation because it is not as

:58:36.:58:38.

simple as a brute creation of what we used to know is grammar schools

:58:39.:58:42.

with the absolute cut-off of the 11 plus. I am surprised how easy they

:58:43.:58:49.

found it politically. We saw the clip of Justine Greening being

:58:50.:58:53.

jeered a little bit but in the grand scheme, compared to another

:58:54.:58:57.

government trying this idea a decade ago they have got away with it

:58:58.:59:01.

easily and I think what is happening is a perverse consequence of Brexit

:59:02.:59:05.

and the media attention on Brexit, the government of the day can just

:59:06.:59:10.

about get away with slightly more contentious domestic policies on the

:59:11.:59:14.

correct assumption we will be too busy investing our attention in

:59:15.:59:19.

Article 50 and two years of negotiations, WTO terms at

:59:20.:59:23.

everything we have been discussing. I wonder if after grammar schools

:59:24.:59:28.

there will be examples of contentious domestic policies

:59:29.:59:31.

Theresa May can slide in stock because Brexit sucks the life out,

:59:32.:59:40.

takes the attention away. You are a supporter. Broadly. Are you happy

:59:41.:59:45.

with the government approach? They need to have more gumption and stop

:59:46.:59:50.

being apologetic. It is a bazaar area of public policy where we judge

:59:51.:59:54.

the policy on grammar schools based on what it does for children whose

:59:55.:59:59.

parents are unemployed, living on sink estates in Liverpool. It is

:00:00.:00:03.

absurd, we don't judge any other policy like that. It is simple, not

:00:04.:00:08.

contentious, people who are not sure, ask them if they would apply

:00:09.:00:12.

to send their child there, six out of ten said they would. Parents want

:00:13.:00:19.

good schools for their children, we should have appropriate education

:00:20.:00:21.

and they should be straightforward, this is about the future of the

:00:22.:00:25.

economy and we need bright children to get education at the highest

:00:26.:00:28.

level, education for academically bright children. It is supposed to

:00:29.:00:35.

be a signature policy of the Theresa May administration that marks a

:00:36.:00:38.

government different from David Cameron's government who did not go

:00:39.:00:42.

down this road. The signature is pretty blurred, it is hard to read.

:00:43.:00:47.

It is. She is trying to address concerns about those who fail to get

:00:48.:00:55.

into these selective schools and tried to targeted in poorer areas

:00:56.:00:58.

and the rest of it. She will probably come across so many

:00:59.:01:01.

obstacles. It is not clear what form it will take in the end. It is

:01:02.:01:06.

really an example of a signature policy not fully thought through. I

:01:07.:01:09.

think it was one of her first announcements. It was. It surprised

:01:10.:01:13.

everybody. Surprised at the speed and pace at which they were planning

:01:14.:01:18.

to go. Ever since, there have been qualifications and hesitations en

:01:19.:01:23.

route with good cause, in my view. I disagree with Juliet that this is...

:01:24.:01:27.

We all want good schools but if you don't get in there and you end up in

:01:28.:01:30.

a less good school. They already do that. We have selection based on the

:01:31.:01:34.

income of parents getting into a good catchment area, based on the

:01:35.:01:38.

faith of the parents. That becomes very attainable! I might been too

:01:39.:01:44.

shot run christenings for these. -- I have been.

:01:45.:01:47.

Now, you may remember this time last week we were talking

:01:48.:01:49.

about the extraordinary claims by US President Donald Trump,

:01:50.:01:52.

on Twitter of course, that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:53.:01:54.

And there was me thinking that wiretaps went out

:01:55.:01:57.

Is it legal for a sitting President to do so, he asked,

:01:58.:02:02.

concluding it was a "new low", and later comparing it to Watergate.

:02:03.:02:11.

Since then, the White House has been pressed to provide evidence for this

:02:12.:02:14.

It hasn't, but it seems it may have initially come from a report on a US

:02:15.:02:20.

website by the former Conservative MP Louise Mensch.

:02:21.:02:23.

She wrote that the FBI had been granted a warrant to intercept

:02:24.:02:26.

communications between Trump's campaign and Russia.

:02:27.:02:33.

Well, Louise Mensch joins us now from New York.

:02:34.:02:42.

Louise, you claimed in early November that the FBI had secured a

:02:43.:02:48.

court warrants to monitor communications between trump Tower

:02:49.:02:53.

in New York at two Russian banks. It's now four months later. Isn't it

:02:54.:02:57.

the case that nobody has proved the existence of this warrant?

:02:58.:03:02.

First of all, forgive me Andrew, one takes 1's life in one's hand when it

:03:03.:03:08.

is you but I have to correct your characterisation of my reporting. It

:03:09.:03:12.

is very important. I did not report that the FBI had a warrant to

:03:13.:03:16.

intercept anything or that Trump tower was any part of it. What I

:03:17.:03:21.

reported was that the FBI obtained a warrant is targeted on all

:03:22.:03:25.

communications between two Russian banks and were, therefore, allowed

:03:26.:03:29.

to examine US persons in the context of their investigation. What the

:03:30.:03:35.

Americans call legally incidental collection. I certainly didn't

:03:36.:03:40.

report that the warrant was able to intercept or that it had location

:03:41.:03:44.

basis, for example Trump tower. I just didn't report that. The reason

:03:45.:03:50.

that matters so much is that I now believe based on the President's

:03:51.:03:55.

reaction, there may well be a wiretap act Trump Tower. If so,

:03:56.:03:59.

Donald Trump has just tweeted out evidence in an ongoing criminal case

:04:00.:04:02.

that neither I nor anybody else reported. He is right about

:04:03.:04:06.

Watergate because he will have committed obstruction of justice

:04:07.:04:10.

directly from his Twitter account. Let me come back as thank you for

:04:11.:04:14.

clarifying. Let me come back to the question. -- and thank you. We have

:04:15.:04:21.

not yet got proof that this warrant exists, do we? No and we are most

:04:22.:04:26.

unlikely to get it because it would be a heinous crime for Donald Trump

:04:27.:04:29.

to reveal its existence. In America they call it a Glomar response. I

:04:30.:04:33.

can neither confirm nor deny. That is what all American officials will

:04:34.:04:37.

have to say legally. If you are looking for proof, you won't get it

:04:38.:04:41.

until and unless a court cases brought. But that doesn't mean it

:04:42.:04:47.

doesn't exist. The BBC validated this two months after me in their

:04:48.:04:50.

reporting by the journalist Paul Wood. The Guardian, they also

:04:51.:04:55.

separately from their own sources validated the existence of the

:04:56.:04:59.

warrant. If you are in America, you would know that CNN and others are

:05:00.:05:02.

reporting that the investigation in ongoing. Let me come onto the wider

:05:03.:05:06.

point. You believe the Trump campaign including the president

:05:07.:05:11.

were complicit with the Russians during the 2016 election campaign to

:05:12.:05:14.

such an extent that Mr Trump should be impeached. What evidence did you

:05:15.:05:16.

have? That is an enormous amount of

:05:17.:05:25.

evidence. You could start with him saying, hey, Russia, if you are

:05:26.:05:28.

listening, please release all the Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's

:05:29.:05:34.

not evidence. I think it rather is, actually. Especially if you look at

:05:35.:05:36.

some of the evidence that exists on Twitter and elsewhere of people

:05:37.:05:41.

talking directly to his social media manager, Dan should be no and

:05:42.:05:45.

telling him to do that before it happened. There is a bit out there.

:05:46.:05:49.

The BBC itself reported that in April of last year, a six agency

:05:50.:05:55.

task force, not just the FBI, but the Treasury Department, was looking

:05:56.:05:58.

at this. I believe there is an enormous amount of evidence. And

:05:59.:06:02.

then there is the steel dossier which was included in an official

:06:03.:06:04.

report of the US intelligence committee. You've also ... Just to

:06:05.:06:13.

be clear, we don't have hard evidence yet whether this warrant

:06:14.:06:17.

exists. It may or may not. There is doubt about... There are claims

:06:18.:06:20.

about whether there is evidence about Mr Trump and the Russians.

:06:21.:06:23.

That is another matter. You claimed that President Putin had Andrew

:06:24.:06:30.

Breitbart murdered to pave the way for Steve Bannon to play a key role

:06:31.:06:36.

in the Trump administration. I haven't. You said that Steve Bannon

:06:37.:06:40.

is behind bomb threats to Jewish community centres. Aren't you in

:06:41.:06:45.

danger of just peddling wild conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I

:06:46.:06:49.

haven't. No matter how many times people say this, it's not going to

:06:50.:06:54.

be true -- first of all. I said in twitter I believe that to be the

:06:55.:06:57.

case about the murder of Andrew Breitbart. You believe President

:06:58.:07:04.

Putin murdered him. I didn't! You said I reported it, but I believed

:07:05.:07:08.

it. You put it on twitter that you believed it but you don't have a

:07:09.:07:13.

shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I know made assertions. What is the

:07:14.:07:18.

evidence that Mr Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe

:07:19.:07:23.

it. You may believe there are fairies at the bottom of your

:07:24.:07:27.

garden, it doesn't make it true. I may indeed. And if I say so, that's

:07:28.:07:32.

my belief. If I say I am reporting, as I did with the Fisa warrant

:07:33.:07:39.

exists, I have a basis in fact. They believe is just a belief. I know you

:07:40.:07:46.

are relatively new to journalism. Let me get the rules right. Andrew,

:07:47.:07:53.

jealousy is not your colour... If it is twitter, we don't believe it but

:07:54.:07:56.

if it is on your website, we should believe it? If I report something

:07:57.:08:01.

and I say this happened, then I am making an assertion. If I describe a

:08:02.:08:05.

belief, I am describing a belief. Subtlety may be a little difficult

:08:06.:08:11.

for you... No, no. If you want to be a journalist, beliefs have to be

:08:12.:08:18.

backed up with evidence. Really? Do you have a faith? It's not a matter

:08:19.:08:22.

of faith, maybe in your case, that President Putin murdered Andrew

:08:23.:08:27.

Breitbart. A belief and a report at two different things and no matter

:08:28.:08:30.

how often you say that they are the same, they will never be the same.

:08:31.:08:36.

You've said in today's Sunday Times here in London that you've turned

:08:37.:08:43.

into" a temporary superpower" where you "See things really clearly".

:08:44.:08:49.

Have you become delusional? No. I am describing a biological basis for

:08:50.:08:55.

ADHD, which I have. As any of your viewers who are doctors will know.

:08:56.:08:58.

It provides people with unfortunately a lot of scattered

:08:59.:09:02.

focus, they are very messy and absent-minded but when they are

:09:03.:09:04.

interested in things and they have ADHD they can have a condition which

:09:05.:09:09.

is hyper focus. You concentrate very hard on a given subject and you can

:09:10.:09:12.

see patterns and connections. That is biological. Thank you for

:09:13.:09:18.

explaining that. And for getting up early in New York. The first time

:09:19.:09:24.

ever I have interviewed a temporary superpower. Thank you. You are so

:09:25.:09:28.

lucky! You are so lucky! I don't think it's going to happen again.

:09:29.:09:32.

Please don't ask us to comment on that interview! I will not ask you,

:09:33.:09:35.

viewers will make up their own minds. Let's come back to be more

:09:36.:09:40.

mundane world of Article 50. Stop the killing!

:09:41.:09:44.

Will it get through at the government wanted it? Without the

:09:45.:09:49.

Lords amendment falling by the way that? I am sure the Lord will not

:09:50.:09:53.

try to ping-pong this back and forth. So we are at the end of this

:09:54.:09:57.

particular legislative phase. The fact that all three Brexit Cabinet

:09:58.:10:01.

ministers, number ten often don't like one of them going out on a

:10:02.:10:04.

broadcast interview on a Sunday, they've all been out and about. That

:10:05.:10:08.

suggests to me they are working on the assumption it will be triggered

:10:09.:10:13.

this week. This week. The negotiations will begin or at least

:10:14.:10:17.

the process begins. The negotiation process may be difficult, given all

:10:18.:10:20.

of the European elections. The Dutch this week. And then the French and

:10:21.:10:26.

maybe the Italians and certainly the Germans by the end of September,

:10:27.:10:29.

which is less predictable than it was. Given all that, what did you

:10:30.:10:34.

make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom on her part, that we may just end up

:10:35.:10:39.

crashing out in six months question -- fear on her part. It was not just

:10:40.:10:45.

that that we made that deliberately organising. I want us to get on with

:10:46.:10:47.

the deals. Everyone knows a good deal is the

:10:48.:10:54.

best option. Who knows what is going to be on the table when we finally

:10:55.:10:59.

go out? Fascinatingly, the demand for some money back, given the

:11:00.:11:04.

amount of money... Net gains and net costs in terms of us leaving for the

:11:05.:11:08.

EU. It is all to play for. That will be a possible early grounds for a

:11:09.:11:15.

confrontation between the UK and the EU. My understanding is that they

:11:16.:11:20.

expect to do a deal on reciprocal rights of EU nationals, EU nationals

:11:21.:11:24.

here, UK citizens there, quite quickly. They want to clear that up

:11:25.:11:28.

and that will be done. Then they will hit this problem that the EU

:11:29.:11:31.

will be saying you've got to agree the divorce Bill first

:11:32.:11:33.

will be saying you've got to agree the divorce Bill first before we

:11:34.:11:37.

talk about the free trade bill. David Davis saying quite clearly,

:11:38.:11:40.

no, they go together because of the size of the bill. It will be

:11:41.:11:45.

determined, in our part, by how good the access will be. The mutual

:11:46.:11:49.

recognition of EU residents' rights is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss

:11:50.:11:53.

is attracted to that subject but it is the easiest thing to deal with,

:11:54.:11:57.

as is free movement for tourists. Money is what will make it

:11:58.:12:00.

incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly quickly. I imagine the dominant

:12:01.:12:03.

story in the summer will be all about that. This was Anna Soubry's

:12:04.:12:07.

implication, members of the governors could strongly argue,

:12:08.:12:12.

things are so poisonous and so unpleasant at the moment, the

:12:13.:12:15.

dealers are advancing -- members of the government. Why not call it a

:12:16.:12:19.

day and go out on WTO terms while public opinion is still in that

:12:20.:12:23.

direction in that Eurosceptic direction? No buyers' remorse about

:12:24.:12:27.

last year's referendum. The longer they leave it, view more opportunity

:12:28.:12:31.

there is for some kind of public resistance and change of mind to

:12:32.:12:35.

take place. The longer believe it, the more people who voted for Brexit

:12:36.:12:39.

and people who voted Remain and think we didn't get world War three

:12:40.:12:43.

will start being quite angry with the EU for not agreeing a deal. In

:12:44.:12:47.

terms of the rights of EU nationals he and Brits abroad, by all

:12:48.:12:53.

accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed individually. Angela Merkel is the

:12:54.:12:56.

only person who has held that up. That will be dealt with in a matter

:12:57.:13:00.

of days. The chances of a deal being done is likely but in ten seconds...

:13:01.:13:06.

It would not be a bad bet to protect your on something not happening, you

:13:07.:13:09.

might get pretty good odds? The odds are going up that a deal doesn't

:13:10.:13:14.

happen. But, as I said earlier, the House of Commons will not endorse no

:13:15.:13:20.

deal. We are either in an early election or she has to go back

:13:21.:13:25.

again. Either way, you will need us! We will be back at noon tomorrow on

:13:26.:13:29.

BBC Two ahead of what looks like being a big week in politics. We

:13:30.:13:32.

will be back here same time, same place.

:13:33.:13:35.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:36.:13:39.

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