14/02/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


14/02/2016

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics.

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David Cameron says a manifesto shouldn't be a "wish list,

:00:42.:00:43.

He says he's been ticking off the commitments his manifesto made,

:00:44.:00:49.

Well, today we launch our own Manifesto Tracker and we'll be

:00:50.:00:53.

talking to the minister responsible for implementing it.

:00:54.:00:57.

The Government wants to crack down on the gender pay gap.

:00:58.:00:59.

But is it really as bad as everyone seems to make out?

:01:00.:01:02.

We'll be talking to TUC General Secretary Frances O'Grady.

:01:03.:01:08.

And we'll be asking who's wooing who

:01:09.:01:10.

in the putative Tory leadership contest?

:01:11.:01:13.

MLAs' expenses - has the Assembly Commission ignored

:01:14.:01:29.

a ruling by Stormont's independent financial watchdog?

:01:30.:01:31.

We'll hear from its chair, Pat McCartan.

:01:32.:01:32.

And the row over renewables - we ask who's to blame.

:01:33.:01:36.

And with me, as always, a match made in heaven.

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Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Tim Shipman,

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who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

:01:42.:01:43.

First, this morning let's turn to the situation in Syria.

:01:44.:01:50.

A nationwide "cessation of hostilities" is due

:01:51.:01:54.

But, despite that agreement, the prospects for peace

:01:55.:01:57.

The truce does not apply to the battle against what Russia

:01:58.:02:01.

calls terrorist targets and means it will continue its heavy bombing

:02:02.:02:03.

Meanwhile, Turkey has shelled Kurdish positions in Northern Syria

:02:04.:02:10.

and the Turkish Foreign Minister has said his country is pondering

:02:11.:02:13.

This morning, the Foreign Secretary said Russia had to begin complying

:02:14.:02:18.

The situation in Aleppo is extremely worrying,

:02:19.:02:22.

the Russians are using carpet-bombing

:02:23.:02:24.

tactics, indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas

:02:25.:02:28.

Yes, we demand that the Russians comply with their obligations under

:02:29.:02:35.

international law and their obligations under the UN

:02:36.:02:37.

Security Council resolutions that they have signed up to.

:02:38.:02:47.

Nick, you get a feeling that given this deal was signed in Munich, it

:02:48.:02:55.

it is living up to deal is signed in Munich reputations. When we hear the

:02:56.:03:00.

Foreign Secretary saying we demand Russian do something when they are

:03:01.:03:03.

creating facts on the ground and we are not, that will have a hollow

:03:04.:03:10.

ring. Russia is now. President's Asad air force. They have ensured

:03:11.:03:14.

that President Assad cannot lose this war but he cannot also win it.

:03:15.:03:19.

They have the air force but no forces on the ground. Now that

:03:20.:03:24.

President Assad cannot lose this war has changed the dynamics. We can

:03:25.:03:29.

whistle in the wind as much as we like but Russia is the reality and

:03:30.:03:34.

power. Sir Roderick Lyne, the former UK ambassador to Moscow was on radio

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five this morning and he said we should not get too carried away with

:03:40.:03:43.

quite how powerful Russia is, they don't have troops on the ground,

:03:44.:03:47.

they have a faltering economy and they are nervous about going into

:03:48.:03:52.

far because of the disaster of Afghanistan 35 years ago. They do

:03:53.:03:56.

have some troops on the ground, they have proxy forces on the ground from

:03:57.:04:01.

Hezbollah and the uranium National Guard. Although they can't take back

:04:02.:04:06.

the whole of Syria, they will take back enough of it -- Iranians

:04:07.:04:10.

National Guard. Making success in the south, the border with Turkey,

:04:11.:04:14.

controlling the Mediterranean coastline. When they have done that,

:04:15.:04:18.

they might be serious about peace talks. Then they are stuck with it.

:04:19.:04:23.

It is not clear if Vladimir Putin thinks beyond tomorrow. It is not

:04:24.:04:26.

clear what the long-term strategy could do. It could be like the

:04:27.:04:32.

Russian invasion of Afghanistan, an absolute disaster. President Assad

:04:33.:04:36.

is saying that they intend to take over the whole of the country,

:04:37.:04:39.

entirely unrealistic. There will be some sort of partition. What is

:04:40.:04:45.

happening is very frightening in the sense that everybody is fighting a

:04:46.:04:47.

proxy war, the Iranians and Saudis. The one thing that people keep

:04:48.:04:56.

saying is Barack Obama was so weak that it is quite unclear what he

:04:57.:05:00.

could have done. Perhaps he could have given Syria's weapons to the

:05:01.:05:04.

more moderate rebels. Hillary Clinton wanted him to do that in

:05:05.:05:10.

July 2012. She put a plan together along with the general and he turned

:05:11.:05:14.

it down. What would have happened is that they would be shooting down

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Russian planes with American weapons. Or Russia might not have

:05:18.:05:22.

gone to war. We don't know. Everything has a dynamic to it. This

:05:23.:05:27.

dynamic is leaving the west pretty much as onlookers. It is clear that

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at least in the short-term, Mr Putin will get back enough ground for

:05:32.:05:37.

Assad to then say we have got rid of a lot of these "Terrorists" because

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they are not Islamic state. It is now asked versus Islamic State.

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Exactly, we sound like the mouse that squeaked this morning. I

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disagree with Polly. One of the great powers in the world has now

:05:51.:05:55.

got very involved in a situation and the other hasn't. President Obama

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had options. He did not explore them to any sort of extent that it put

:06:00.:06:05.

off the Russians. Britain is left on the sidelines, waiting for a new US

:06:06.:06:14.

president, to get engaged in this issue and do something proactive.

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What could have been done that would have been any use at all? Either

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useless or worse than useless, stuck us in there... He did say he had

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chemical weapons and it was an important red Line. And he let them

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cross the red line. He totally ignored it. What would you have done

:06:29.:06:32.

that would have been useful? You could have set up a humanitarian

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safe haven and protected it with force and armed the rebels to deter

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the Russians and make it a situation where Assad could not continue. We

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now have a situation where Assad is now a fact of life, he is not going

:06:47.:06:51.

anywhere. There is not much you can do without you were serious

:06:52.:06:55.

involvement. I am glad we touched on Syria, it is an important developing

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story. Now, what's black and white

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and not read all over? Even if you did read it,

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would you be able to remember all the promises and whether

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the Government had delivered them? Today, we're launching our very

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own Manifesto Tracker, which charts the progress

:07:09.:07:12.

of the pledges Sort of like a blue virtual

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Edstone, or maybe not! Over the next four years,

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we'll be monitoring the Government's progress on all of the commitments

:07:19.:07:26.

the Conservatives made ahead of the 2015 general election

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in their manifesto, and a few big promises they made

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during the campaign. So, we've identified 161 pledges,

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and loaded them into our Manifesto We've grouped them into categories

:07:43.:07:44.

covering all the major areas of Government policy,

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from the constitution And we've given each

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of the promises a colour rating. Red signalling little

:07:53.:08:00.

or no progress so far. Amber when the Government

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has made some progress. Let's start by looking

:08:06.:08:08.

at the Conservative commitments As you can see they've made at least

:08:09.:08:14.

some progress on all of them. Easily the party's biggest promise

:08:15.:08:23.

here was to hold a referendum on Britain's membership

:08:24.:08:26.

of the EU by December 2017. We've marked that amber,

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to show that some progress The bill setting the vote has passed

:08:32.:08:34.

through Parliament and it's looking likely the poll will

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be held this year. The cornerstone of the Conservative

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election campaign last May was how they would handle the economy,

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and as you can see, that's where we've found the greatest

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number of promises. Let's look at one of the policies

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they identified as part of their plan to

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eliminate the deficit. That was to reduce the welfare

:09:02.:09:05.

bill by ?12 billion. Again, we've given

:09:06.:09:09.

that an amber rating. The savings were outlined

:09:10.:09:13.

in the Chancellor's Autumn Statement But it's too early to say

:09:14.:09:15.

if they'll all be achieved. When it comes to the constitution,

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the Government's made some progress But it promised to scrap

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the Human Rights Act, and replace it That gets a red rating,

:09:27.:09:34.

as although there have been reports something is in the pipeline,

:09:35.:09:40.

as yet there is no sign of the legislation

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required to introduce it. Some manifesto commitments have

:09:44.:09:49.

already been delivered in full. Like the introduction of English

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votes for English laws to give English MPs a veto over laws that

:09:54.:09:56.

only affect England. Other changes promised in

:09:57.:10:05.

the manifesto are less well known. Like the promise to recover

:10:06.:10:07.

?500 million from migrants and overseas visitors who use

:10:08.:10:09.

the NHS by the middle We will give that amber,

:10:10.:10:12.

because some new charges have already been introduced,

:10:13.:10:20.

and the Department of Health Let's add on the rest

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of the promises in each of the policy areas and have a look

:10:23.:10:30.

at how the government Taken together, of the 161

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Conservative election commitments, we think ten are red,

:10:33.:10:41.

111 are amber, and 40 are green. We'll be returning to the manifesto

:10:42.:10:49.

tracker every few months, but in the meantime you can find

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the full data on the politics And with us now the Cabinet Office

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Minister and Paymaster General, Matt Hancock, he oversees

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the implementation Welcome to the programme, do you

:11:08.:11:17.

regard this manifesto as a contract with the British people and do you

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intend to intimate it all? It is certainly the commitments on which

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we were elected. We take it incredibly seriously -- goals to

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implement it. That is the goal. We have got about a quarter delivered,

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we have had less than a year. In fact, I really welcome this scrutiny

:11:35.:11:39.

and this project you have been on. We will implement and publish our

:11:40.:11:46.

own plans and make sure that each individual manifesto commitment has

:11:47.:11:49.

an individual minister responsible for delivering it. And publish that.

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We will nationalise you and this process. You will nationalise us? We

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can't afford you, probably, but we will do this as a government. Let's

:12:00.:12:03.

see if you still want to do that at the end of this interview. Your

:12:04.:12:07.

manifesto promised to scrap Labour's Human Rights Act and replace it with

:12:08.:12:10.

a British Bill of Rights, and abolition Bill would be drafted

:12:11.:12:13.

within the first hundred days after the election. It didn't happen. Why?

:12:14.:12:19.

The work is in progress. Internally, we will publish it. Why have you not

:12:20.:12:24.

kept to the timetable? The timetable of the whole manifesto is to deliver

:12:25.:12:28.

within the parliament. You said this would be done, the draft bill within

:12:29.:12:33.

the first 100 days. Clearly, we will deliver against the commitment. I

:12:34.:12:39.

thought it was a bit harsh to call that read, I would call that Amber.

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It is not delivered yet. We called it red because the justice minister,

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Mr Bove, said the consultation had been delayed yet again. The question

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is what we deliver over the five-year parliament. -- Mr Gove. We

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are less than a year in and we have got one quarter delivered and that

:12:59.:13:01.

is one where there is work in progress but we are committed to

:13:02.:13:04.

doing it. The manifesto promised to make the UK's Supreme Court "The

:13:05.:13:10.

ultimate arbiter of human rights in the UK". That will not happen. This

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is all part of the same package which we have committed to

:13:16.:13:20.

delivering. We are less than a year in and we have a few years to go.

:13:21.:13:25.

Whatever the package, the Supreme Court will not be "The ultimate

:13:26.:13:29.

arbiter" on human rights, will it? That is part of the proposed

:13:30.:13:34.

package, as part of the replacement of the Human Rights Act. We will get

:13:35.:13:39.

to that. There is a bigger picture, which is making sure that we deliver

:13:40.:13:45.

on the overall set of commitments in the manifesto where we are making

:13:46.:13:49.

good progress. But, you can enhance the role of the Cyprian Court on

:13:50.:13:53.

human rights, I understand that. Maybe the British Bill of Rights

:13:54.:13:57.

will do their -- Supreme Court. But at the end of the day, the European

:13:58.:14:00.

Court of Human Rights is the ultimate arbiter. That is the

:14:01.:14:05.

factual legal situation. It all depends on the changes that you

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make. We will bring forward a package of changes to be able to

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deliver against these commitments in the Parliament. Mr Gove says we are

:14:13.:14:17.

not planning to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights.

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Let's see what happens when we published the proposals on this

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particular package. Immigration, probably your biggest fail, I would

:14:25.:14:29.

suggest. The 2050 manifesto repeated the pledge in the 2010 manifesto to

:14:30.:14:33.

get annual net migration down to tens of thousands -- 2015. After

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five years, far from getting it down, net migration reached a record

:14:38.:14:43.

336,000 last year, that is a spectacular failure. Clearly, this

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is a commitment. To get immigration down to tens of thousands, that

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remains the goal. But we haven't yet reached it. Presumably you did not

:14:55.:15:02.

call that green. No. It is red. That the commitment remains because we

:15:03.:15:06.

think it is reasonable to control immigration in this country, so that

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while some immigration can be very good for the economy and more

:15:10.:15:13.

broadly, actually it has got to be done at a reasonable level.

:15:14.:15:17.

It's not just that you didn't get it down enough, it's actually risen

:15:18.:15:23.

since you came to power. Why would you promise what you have failed

:15:24.:15:27.

dismally to deliver again? I think it is a reasonable goal. Clearly we

:15:28.:15:33.

put it in the manifesto for a reason, to get immigration down. And

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we are less than a year into the Parliament and we've got four years

:15:41.:15:44.

to go. Is it a goal or a pledge? Do you pledge to the British people

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today that net migration will be down to the tens of thousands by

:15:50.:15:54.

2020? Well I pledge to fulfil what was in the manifesto on which I and

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every other Conservative MPs was elected. Well that pledge was to get

:15:59.:16:03.

it down to the tens of thousands. It was meant to be in the tens of

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thousands by 2015, it is 346,000, is there a pledge that it will be down

:16:10.:16:14.

to the tens of thousands by 2020? There is a whole series of actions

:16:15.:16:18.

that we are taking, not least the EU renegotiation to try to tackle

:16:19.:16:23.

immigration and make sure that it's brought down to a reasonable level.

:16:24.:16:27.

Again there is a broader point, of the 160 odd commitments that you are

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measuring, delivering an accord of them, of course some are quicker

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than others to deliver on, it's fair to say. But the whole point of

:16:37.:16:39.

having the manifesto and tracking it as we are doing is to make sure we

:16:40.:16:45.

know where we are up to. Lets come onto the European negotiations, that

:16:46.:16:52.

was in the manifesto. The manifesto promised several key things in the

:16:53.:16:56.

renegotiation, a four-year ban on EU migrants claiming in work benefits,

:16:57.:17:01.

a new residency requirement for social housing, and no child benefit

:17:02.:17:05.

for EU migrants if their children live abroad. The draft deal contains

:17:06.:17:12.

none of these things. Well, firstly, as you say, the centrepiece of our

:17:13.:17:18.

European policy was to have the referendum, and we will be having

:17:19.:17:21.

the referendum. Although you call that Amber it is certainly going to

:17:22.:17:24.

happen. I understand that but none of the things you said we would get

:17:25.:17:27.

to vote on in this referendum have been delivered. We then sat out --

:17:28.:17:38.

set out what we wanted to negotiate and that negotiation is not

:17:39.:17:41.

complete. We have a lot of work to do this week to get the best

:17:42.:17:45.

possible deal we can. I hope we will have a good deal and be able to vote

:17:46.:17:48.

to stay in a reformed Europe. There is a version of the ban on EU

:17:49.:17:55.

migrants benefits, there is not no child benefits, now there will be 28

:17:56.:17:59.

different child benefits that Britain will pay but there is no

:18:00.:18:03.

mention of residency requirement for social housing, no mention of that

:18:04.:18:09.

in the deal, so that has gone? Look, we don't know the outcome of this

:18:10.:18:12.

negotiation until the end of this week. There is a week of hard work

:18:13.:18:16.

to get the deal. But there is a bigger picture here. Social housing

:18:17.:18:22.

is not on the agenda? Let's see what we get in this deal over the next

:18:23.:18:28.

week. But there's a bigger point here, which is that we said we'd

:18:29.:18:32.

have the renegotiation, lots and lots of people said you are never

:18:33.:18:35.

going to get these things on the table. A question of in work

:18:36.:18:40.

benefits, child benefit, we were told you couldn't even put that on

:18:41.:18:44.

the agenda. The discussion in Europe this week is exactly how far we go

:18:45.:18:49.

on those. People said that we couldn't deliver anything in this

:18:50.:18:51.

space and we've managed to deliver already the draft deal, and we will

:18:52.:18:56.

see where we end up. But not what was in the manifesto. We will see

:18:57.:19:00.

where we end up at the end of this week. We will indeed. Not

:19:01.:19:04.

necessarily next week but in the weeks ahead we will be coming back

:19:05.:19:08.

to go through this. Onto the economy, you put in place a charter

:19:09.:19:11.

for budget responsibility which commits you to running a surplus, a

:19:12.:19:17.

legal obligation as well as a policy. The in situ for fiscal

:19:18.:19:20.

studies says that will require tax rises or spending cuts as yet

:19:21.:19:23.

unannounced, do you agree? Not in the latest financial forecast put

:19:24.:19:28.

out by the office for budget responsible to who independently

:19:29.:19:31.

advise on these, and we have a budget in just over a month's time

:19:32.:19:35.

so we will see what the figures say, then. Clearly in the latest forecast

:19:36.:19:38.

from the government, yes, we have that surplus. You have not hit a

:19:39.:19:46.

surplus. We have hit it in the forecast. And they change. They do,

:19:47.:19:52.

as the economy changes. On that economic front there was an awful

:19:53.:19:58.

lot in the manifesto on that, it is all about economic security,

:19:59.:20:01.

generating jobs, in the same way that the national Security ones were

:20:02.:20:05.

all about national security. And those were the two elements at the

:20:06.:20:08.

heart of this manifesto that we were elected on. I would say that we are

:20:09.:20:13.

delivering very strongly on both. In terms of the big picture of what you

:20:14.:20:17.

are getting from the message that we said we were going to deliver. Let

:20:18.:20:21.

me come down to the smaller but still very important picture. You

:20:22.:20:24.

have a legal obligation to reach a surplus by 2020. If, to reach that

:20:25.:20:29.

surplus, you had to raise taxes, would you? Look, much as I'd love

:20:30.:20:36.

to, I'm not going to set out tax policy on Sunday morning. To meet

:20:37.:20:41.

the legal obligation, if it required tax increases, would there be tax

:20:42.:20:44.

increases? We've set out the plans and the plans hit a surplus. We did

:20:45.:20:48.

that in the Autumn Statement in November. Clearly the economy

:20:49.:20:54.

changes all the time, internationally, people have seen

:20:55.:20:57.

falls in the stock market in the last few months. But we will have a

:20:58.:21:03.

budget in more than a month's time. But I voted to have that surplus and

:21:04.:21:07.

that is clearly what we will set out to do. You promised a lower tax

:21:08.:21:13.

society. Yes. Yet on the forecast, the overall tax burden is rising as

:21:14.:21:19.

a percentage of GDP and on the forecast, not the buoyancy but extra

:21:20.:21:23.

tax that you have introduced will be ?50 billion higher. So you have

:21:24.:21:26.

previous on this, you could raise taxes again because you already

:21:27.:21:30.

have? Clearly there are some areas where we have tightened things up,

:21:31.:21:36.

especially on tax avoidance. We took an extra ?5 billion from tax

:21:37.:21:43.

avoidance measures. And what about the billions in addition to that? We

:21:44.:21:45.

have reduced the tax burden especially on people in lower wage

:21:46.:21:50.

jobs, they are going to get the national minimum wage but we are

:21:51.:21:53.

well on the way to the manifesto commitment of making sure you don't

:21:54.:21:57.

have to pay any income taxed until you make ?12,500. We have made

:21:58.:22:03.

progress but there is more to do. The manifesto talks about reducing

:22:04.:22:07.

the tax relief on pension contributions for people earning

:22:08.:22:12.

more than ?150,000, people on 45%, the highest income tax band, you are

:22:13.:22:20.

going to cut tax relief on their pension contributions. If you were

:22:21.:22:23.

to also cut the tax relief of those on the 40% rate, that would be

:22:24.:22:30.

breaching the manifesto? There we've done what we said we would do in the

:22:31.:22:33.

manifesto. We've followed the manifesto clearly in terms of the

:22:34.:22:39.

commitment that it made. Outside the manifesto there's always going to be

:22:40.:22:43.

other things that you do. On pension tax review were explicit that it

:22:44.:22:48.

would be those in the 45% wouldn't get it, you didn't mention any other

:22:49.:22:52.

bracket, the imprecation is that it's only the 45%. If you took away

:22:53.:22:58.

tax relief from the 40% taxpayers that would be broken manifesto

:22:59.:23:02.

commitment? That's not how I see it, you can add things to the manifesto.

:23:03.:23:07.

Look at the whole reform programme a massive reform programme which was

:23:08.:23:10.

not in our manifesto because we've built it up as a proposal since

:23:11.:23:14.

then. Likewise the Prime Ministerspeech on social mobility

:23:15.:23:21.

and an tackling an just inequalities -- an just inequalities. We've done

:23:22.:23:27.

a huge amount of that on the autumn. Delivering on the manifesto

:23:28.:23:33.

commitments is absolutely essential. But it is not the only thing you do

:23:34.:23:36.

in government because you respond to events. But the purpose of this

:23:37.:23:41.

interview is to hold your manifesto to account. Hunting, when will you

:23:42.:23:45.

give Parliament the chance to repeal the hunting act. We are committed to

:23:46.:23:49.

doing that. When? In this Parliament. We looked at doing it

:23:50.:23:55.

early on. You dropped that. We decided not to do it then, but we

:23:56.:24:00.

are committed to its. You set a target of ?1 trillion of exports by

:24:01.:24:03.

2020, most forecasters including your own oh BR say you will be at

:24:04.:24:11.

least ?350 billion short. Can we agree that you will not hit that

:24:12.:24:15.

target? It's fair to say that it is stretching target, but it remains

:24:16.:24:21.

our target, our aspiration. But you will miss it. There is an awful lot

:24:22.:24:28.

of work going into achieving it. Thank you for that, come back and we

:24:29.:24:32.

will see the progress in the months ahead. Look forward to it.

:24:33.:24:33.

And remember if you want to see how the government is doing

:24:34.:24:36.

in detail our manifesto tracker is available for you to peruse

:24:37.:24:39.

On Friday, new measures to tackle the pay gap between genders

:24:40.:24:46.

From 2018, companies with more than 250 employees will have

:24:47.:24:56.

to publish the differences in salary between men and women.

:24:57.:24:59.

Businesses failing to address the problem will be named

:25:00.:25:01.

Here's what Women and Equalities Minister Nicky Morgan had to say.

:25:02.:25:05.

Transparency about the gender pay gap in companies and public sector

:25:06.:25:08.

organisations is going to be very important in driving behaviour.

:25:09.:25:14.

So we are going to require companies, under the regulations,

:25:15.:25:18.

companies of over 250 employees, to publish their gender pay gap

:25:19.:25:20.

We, as a government, will then compile those league tables.

:25:21.:25:29.

It will be two fold, one, companies will hopefully,

:25:30.:25:31.

and we expect from the response we have,

:25:32.:25:35.

to think a lot harder about where women are in their workforce.

:25:36.:25:38.

How they are distributed, what they are being paid.

:25:39.:25:40.

But it will also drive applications to work in certain

:25:41.:25:43.

organisations because I think women will look and see what is the gender

:25:44.:25:46.

pay gap in this organisation and is this somewhere

:25:47.:25:48.

And with us now, General Secretary of the TUC, Frances O'Grady.

:25:49.:25:52.

Welcome back. We know there is a gender pay gap. In some age groups,

:25:53.:26:01.

not all, but still in some age groups. Where is the evidence that

:26:02.:26:04.

it is a result of dissemination, of employers not paying properly, as

:26:05.:26:12.

opposed to lifestyle and choices? We still do have this pretty crazy

:26:13.:26:19.

situation where women have Giroud and 80p for everyone pound that men

:26:20.:26:24.

do across the economy. -- where women earn 80p for every pound that

:26:25.:26:28.

men do. This is a welcome step, this initiative, but it is a very small

:26:29.:26:33.

step. It is about reporting, not about telling us why this is going

:26:34.:26:36.

on, not coming up with actions to deal with it. When you dig down from

:26:37.:26:40.

the headline figure, and you have just used one, you begin to see some

:26:41.:26:44.

quite deep-seated cultural issues, not just a matter of economics. The

:26:45.:26:48.

labour market study shows that men tend to work in occupations that pay

:26:49.:26:52.

more, that's been a historic thing. And women in jobs that pay less. For

:26:53.:26:57.

example men in construction, women in retail. Men in computer

:26:58.:27:01.

programming, women in nursing. That is one of the explanations for the

:27:02.:27:06.

page gap. There is certainly still big job separation, but one of the

:27:07.:27:12.

questions we must ask is, is it case of equal values? People paying for

:27:13.:27:18.

the work of equal value. It is illegal to pay anybody less than a

:27:19.:27:25.

man is getting or vice versa, equal pay for equal jobs. For example, why

:27:26.:27:31.

is looking after children considered to be less valuable than mending a

:27:32.:27:35.

car? The problem is, in order for women to prove it, they've got to be

:27:36.:27:39.

able to take employment tribunal claims, and of course we've seen

:27:40.:27:41.

this government introduce very significant fees that have massively

:27:42.:27:46.

reduced the number of women being able to take pay and six

:27:47.:27:51.

dissemination claims. Is on the gender pay gap really a generational

:27:52.:27:56.

matter, and it might be resolving itself? I'd like to show you this

:27:57.:28:00.

chart, here, which looks at different age groups. For women aged

:28:01.:28:05.

40 to 49, there is a gap, it's coming down but there is still a

:28:06.:28:09.

substantial gap. For younger women in the 22 to 29, there is no pay

:28:10.:28:13.

gap, indeed there is some evidence now that the gender pay gap is the

:28:14.:28:17.

other way among younger people than it is amongst men. What I think it

:28:18.:28:24.

shows you is that the real problem kicks in when women have babies.

:28:25.:28:30.

Yes. That's when women are much more likely to work part-time, much more

:28:31.:28:33.

likely to need nurseries, and as we get older and we are looking after

:28:34.:28:37.

elderly parents, too. Elder care as well. Some of those public service

:28:38.:28:43.

cuts are hitting our sure start centres and care for the elderly. I

:28:44.:28:47.

think you hit on something, there. You can begin to see the return of

:28:48.:28:52.

the gender pay gap as women hit their late 20s or early 30s, because

:28:53.:28:56.

the average age that women have their first child is 28 and a half.

:28:57.:29:02.

So that suggests that the policy response will have to be quite

:29:03.:29:05.

sophisticated to get rid of a later developing pay gap. Stopping cuts on

:29:06.:29:10.

this is would help but also helping dads as well. A lot of men nowadays

:29:11.:29:14.

want to be more involved with their children but they need more paid

:29:15.:29:19.

paternity to be able to do that. I want to show you another chart that

:29:20.:29:25.

suggests there are developers. This shows you a figure that is not

:29:26.:29:31.

widely known, there are now every year 100,000 more women applying for

:29:32.:29:35.

university than men. 100,000 more. Women from poor backgrounds are 50%

:29:36.:29:41.

more likely to go to university than men. Women now take most of the

:29:42.:29:45.

first in medicine and law, two professions that are pretty well

:29:46.:29:51.

paid. Again, isn't this sense that, even in the later years, now, the

:29:52.:29:55.

gender pay gap could begin to resolve itself?

:29:56.:29:59.

I really hope so the TUC analysis shows that at this rate of change it

:30:00.:30:06.

would take another 45 years. No, I looked at these figures. Frances

:30:07.:30:13.

O'Grady, you took one year of the pay gap, which strode it came down

:30:14.:30:19.

by 0.2%. Dodt which showed. If you had taken the last ten years it

:30:20.:30:24.

still takes too long but it is not 47 years, that was a propaganda

:30:25.:30:29.

figure. You can't do a trend on one year. Most people agree we need bold

:30:30.:30:34.

action to change it. Given we have agreed that it is a complicated

:30:35.:30:38.

picture and now becomes an issue primarily for women who have taken

:30:39.:30:42.

time off and then go back into the workforce again, get me one thing

:30:43.:30:47.

that the government could do that would stop this gender pay gap

:30:48.:30:51.

re-emerging in their 30s and 40s? Stop cuts to nurseries. Provide a

:30:52.:30:57.

proper system of care for old people, that allows women and men to

:30:58.:31:01.

combine those caring responsibilities with a responsible

:31:02.:31:05.

job. That is what would really make... I can see how it would help.

:31:06.:31:09.

It is about progression and people feeling they can go for that

:31:10.:31:12.

promotion or training course that would get them a better job. And

:31:13.:31:16.

having the confidence to do it, that their life won't fall apart if they

:31:17.:31:21.

tried. If the TUC wanted to be ahead of the curve, should you not now be

:31:22.:31:26.

giving a lot more attention to the growing underperformance of young

:31:27.:31:30.

males, particularly from poorer backgrounds in education and the

:31:31.:31:33.

workforce? That is a looming problem. Believe you me, we do, we

:31:34.:31:40.

do. We've been fighting very hard for not just more apprenticeships

:31:41.:31:43.

but real quality apprenticeships. Equal opportunities for all. That

:31:44.:31:48.

would help. There are a lot of young men who want to be as involved in

:31:49.:31:52.

bringing up their children as their partners do. Why doesn't the TUC

:31:53.:31:57.

practice what it preaches when it comes to gender equality? Only three

:31:58.:32:01.

of the largest ten unions are led by women even though most unions have a

:32:02.:32:06.

female majority membership. Being a national offices in the unions are

:32:07.:32:10.

lower than the percentage of the night union members. Eight out of

:32:11.:32:15.

ten. And seven out of ten unions have women where they are

:32:16.:32:19.

significantly underrepresented on the national executive. Of the TUC

:32:20.:32:23.

delegation is. Even though women are majority membership. As you know,

:32:24.:32:27.

the picture has changed dramatically over the last few years. We do just

:32:28.:32:30.

have over the last few years. We do just

:32:31.:32:32.

have three in ten union leaders elected on average. That is a big

:32:33.:32:38.

change, it is a lot better than the board room and a hell of a lot

:32:39.:32:42.

better than many sat around the Cabinet table. It is still not that

:32:43.:32:52.

great. 74% female membership. Only 70% full time. 75% TUC delegation

:32:53.:33:01.

and only 28 on the TUC. Led by a woman general secretary. You have a

:33:02.:33:06.

way to go. For the first time in history it is 50-50. We are

:33:07.:33:10.

committed. We want to work with businesses who want to make that

:33:11.:33:14.

change. I am delighted to say. He loves unions. Thank you.

:33:15.:33:18.

It's just gone 11:30am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:33:19.:33:20.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:33:21.:33:23.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, The Week Ahead.

:33:24.:33:33.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:33:34.:33:36.

The Assembly Commission clears Sinn Fein

:33:37.:33:39.

of any wrongdoing over expenses claims -

:33:40.:33:41.

but Stormont's independent watchdog isn't happy.

:33:42.:33:42.

We'll hear from the chair of the Independent Financial Review Panel.

:33:43.:33:46.

Plus a row over renewables - why is a green energy incentive

:33:47.:33:49.

scheme set to burn such a large hole in the Economy Minister's budget?

:33:50.:33:53.

And with their thoughts on all of that and much more,

:33:54.:33:56.

my guests of the day are Newton Emerson and Allison Morris.

:33:57.:34:07.

The Assembly Commission has found Sinn Fein MLAs

:34:08.:34:08.

who claimed almost ?700,000 in expenses for research

:34:09.:34:12.

from a company run by the party's finance managers did nothing wrong.

:34:13.:34:17.

The expense claims were one of a number of issues highlighted

:34:18.:34:22.

set up to make determinations on MLAs' salaries and allowances

:34:23.:34:28.

says he's concerned by the the findings.

:34:29.:34:30.

We'll hear from Pat McCartan in just a moment,

:34:31.:34:33.

but first here's our political correspondent, Stephen Walker.

:34:34.:34:41.

The Spotlight programmes work broadcast in November 20 14. One of

:34:42.:34:49.

the ABC programmes reported that Sinn Fein MLA 's kind about ?700,000

:34:50.:34:53.

in total through Stormont expenses to pay a research service, RSI, over

:34:54.:35:02.

a 10-year period. The programme makers were not able to find any

:35:03.:35:07.

research carried out by RSI and one Sinn Fein MLA was reported to have

:35:08.:35:10.

said they had never heard of the company until they saw it on the

:35:11.:35:16.

annual expenses. TUV leader Jim Allister asked the SMB commission

:35:17.:35:19.

how much of the money had been recovered. In response, the

:35:20.:35:23.

commission said its review confirmed that payments for research services,

:35:24.:35:26.

as reported in the programme, were made for admissible X-Men which are

:35:27.:35:34.

up to and including the 20 12th-13 financial year. -- the 2012-2013

:35:35.:35:39.

financial year. So no recovery has been sought. There has been no

:35:40.:35:47.

serious effort to recall the ?700,000. Whether that is because of

:35:48.:35:50.

the political inconvenience of doing those things or not is a matter of

:35:51.:35:54.

speculation. But it is appalling that nothing has been done. Jim

:35:55.:35:59.

Allister also asked about the disclosure that former DUP speaker

:36:00.:36:07.

William Hay's office claimed money for heating oil in one year.

:36:08.:36:12.

And Pat McCartan, who chairs the watchdog, the IFRP,

:36:13.:36:15.

Welcome to the programme. Thank you for joining us. Where do you think

:36:16.:36:25.

the commission has got it wrong? In the 12-13 year we made enquiries

:36:26.:36:35.

into the like RSI. It appears from our information that payments have

:36:36.:36:39.

been made after the end of December of that year. That is contrary to

:36:40.:36:45.

the determination, and the commission, if it thinks these were

:36:46.:36:50.

OK, is quite wrong. So the commission, in your view, has got it

:36:51.:36:52.

wrong. You believe that your watchdog body was crystal clear

:36:53.:36:58.

about what was allowable and what was not allowable. Where does this

:36:59.:37:01.

leave us question at these are matters for the commission. Our

:37:02.:37:04.

panel doesn't have the same panels as the panel in Westminster,

:37:05.:37:09.

otherwise they would be matters for us and we would have dealt with them

:37:10.:37:11.

long ago. These issues are only coming to light now, which is of

:37:12.:37:17.

concern to the panel because we are about to launch our determination

:37:18.:37:25.

for the next Assembly. We must be assured that there is no way in

:37:26.:37:29.

which what we determine is going to be circumvented. Stephen Walker

:37:30.:37:36.

talked their about ?700,000 over ten years that had been claimed. In

:37:37.:37:40.

terms of the nine months that you're talking about, where claims were

:37:41.:37:43.

allowed, which should not have been allowed. From April to December

:37:44.:37:51.

2012, how much was claimed that should not have been claimed? It

:37:52.:37:54.

could be ?150,000 which went to RSI in that period. Wrongly. And that

:37:55.:38:01.

?150,000 has come from the public purse? It has come from office costs

:38:02.:38:06.

expenses drawn down by individual members of the Assembly. Yes, it is

:38:07.:38:11.

out of public money is for an entirely different purpose. They

:38:12.:38:17.

fought running constituency offices or providing and 70 member with a

:38:18.:38:21.

secretarial service. And that is being paid to Sinn Fein MLA 's

:38:22.:38:27.

graduate that is paid to Sinn Fein MLA 's and something like ?5,000

:38:28.:38:31.

appears to have been paid from that money to RSI in the nine months from

:38:32.:38:38.

the 1st of April 20 12th to the 1st of December 2012. I do not have the

:38:39.:38:43.

full details but I'm awaiting those from the emission. You have made it

:38:44.:38:48.

clear that this money ought not to have been removed from the topic

:38:49.:38:52.

purse, it was not allowable in your view. Does it suggest that the

:38:53.:38:56.

Assembly commission appears to have pulled rank on your body? It does

:38:57.:39:04.

not accept your finding? It has effectively ignored it, is that

:39:05.:39:07.

right question what if it has done that, it is acting contrary to the

:39:08.:39:11.

law. The law is clear. It has given us power to determine these matters

:39:12.:39:14.

and we did do the first determination from the 1st of April

:39:15.:39:19.

20 12. It is explicit. So it will be for the commission to explain if any

:39:20.:39:24.

payments have been made wrongly in that period. We have asked for a

:39:25.:39:27.

representative of the commission to take part in today's programme. We

:39:28.:39:31.

were told that nobody was available. We had again that some of what the

:39:32.:39:35.

commission has said, defending the payments that were made, that on a

:39:36.:39:41.

technicality, or for whatever reason, it does not accept your view

:39:42.:39:46.

of the world. The question people at home will be wondering is, what

:39:47.:39:51.

happens next? Will be making our determination for the next Assembly.

:39:52.:39:56.

We are very careful to ensure that there is no every of ambiguity or

:39:57.:40:00.

problem of interpretation of our findings. They are, under the 2011

:40:01.:40:08.

act, part of the law in relation to the payment of expenses. And that is

:40:09.:40:12.

the way they should be treated. Now, in other jurisdictions, where people

:40:13.:40:19.

have been prosecuted for wrongful claims, we have no such powers as a

:40:20.:40:24.

panel yet. We are not given the same powers as they have in Westminster

:40:25.:40:29.

on a double. If we were, we would be able to take care of these matters

:40:30.:40:33.

at source. And there will be no persecutions in Northern Ireland.

:40:34.:40:35.

That is not even on the agenda. I'm not aware of anything, other than by

:40:36.:40:43.

particular case involving expenses for fuel. As far as the broader RSI

:40:44.:40:50.

claims, there is no suggestion that there is an issue as far as that is

:40:51.:40:54.

concerned. Do you feel undermined by this situation? I certainly feel

:40:55.:40:57.

that the panel has been treated wrongly that it is for the

:40:58.:41:01.

Commission to satisfy us. They will adhere to our findings, as per their

:41:02.:41:07.

legislation setting is up. That is what we would expect in the new

:41:08.:41:13.

determination. Jim Allister, that UV leader, referred in that short

:41:14.:41:18.

report to the political inconvenience. It could have been

:41:19.:41:21.

behind the decision not to attempt to recover any of the money paid to

:41:22.:41:26.

RSI. The think political inconvenience could be a factor in

:41:27.:41:30.

all of this? I don't know. I would think that that is, somewhere along

:41:31.:41:32.

the line, some pressure has been brought to their on the Secretariat

:41:33.:41:38.

to make payments contrary to the determination. Pressure from whom?

:41:39.:41:42.

From politicians saying that they need the money. I have no evidence

:41:43.:41:47.

other than what we have seen in a recent report, carried out by an

:41:48.:41:57.

independent IBSA, that some out of determination has gone on. It is a

:41:58.:42:00.

complicated situation because you have got politicians making up the

:42:01.:42:06.

Assembly, commission. They are putting pressure on the secretariat,

:42:07.:42:09.

you imagine. At the end of the day, it is the Assembly Commission who

:42:10.:42:13.

have the final say, and that is politicians. That is what is wrong

:42:14.:42:17.

with the system. That is why the Independent Financial Review Panel

:42:18.:42:20.

did ask for the legislation to be reviewed. We are disappointed in

:42:21.:42:27.

what has been said. They wish to continue with the present system. In

:42:28.:42:31.

the meantime, Wendy you publish your next determination, and what is it

:42:32.:42:37.

likely to say of significance, given the conversation we have just had?

:42:38.:42:40.

It is likely to make it very exquisite as to what is or is not

:42:41.:42:44.

allowed. It is likely to ensure that there is clarity in each of the

:42:45.:42:48.

allowances and how they will be paid. It is likely to recommend, if

:42:49.:42:54.

we cannot act ourselves, on a range of these issues to ensure that

:42:55.:42:58.

public bodies are properly accounted for. You will make that

:42:59.:43:02.

determination, but we still do not have the power, the legislative

:43:03.:43:09.

power, for you to enforce your view on the Assembly Commission as things

:43:10.:43:11.

stand question what we do have that power but it is for the Commission

:43:12.:43:16.

to enact it. If it is not enacting it, that is a matter for the

:43:17.:43:21.

Commission. That is what cannot be followed up question that is the

:43:22.:43:26.

issue currently. Of course we are concerned for the general public to

:43:27.:43:29.

ensure that the legislation is absolutely clear that there is a

:43:30.:43:35.

full independent body that is was possible for policing and paying out

:43:36.:43:38.

these matters. That is what is being rejected by the fresh start. Thank

:43:39.:43:42.

you for coming in. Let's see what my

:43:43.:43:44.

guests make of that. Newton Emerson and Allison

:43:45.:43:47.

Morris are with me. What do you make of that question

:43:48.:43:54.

what it is absolutely startling. I think most people will be shocked

:43:55.:43:57.

that there is nothing that can be done. If this had been at West Mr,

:43:58.:44:01.

able would be committed for prosecutions but we have a situation

:44:02.:44:04.

where politicians are regulated themselves. The rules were clearly

:44:05.:44:15.

wrong. ?150,000 outside of when the rules were changed. That should be

:44:16.:44:18.

paid back immediately. There is no question. With regards to the fact

:44:19.:44:25.

that there is no power for anyone to include any prosecutions, I think

:44:26.:44:30.

now we are living in times of austerity, that probably won't win

:44:31.:44:35.

these games wait ten years ago, I don't think many numbers of the

:44:36.:44:38.

public will look on them in the same way as they would have then. We are

:44:39.:44:43.

hearing that politicians are paying themselves outside of the rules. I

:44:44.:44:50.

think it is fair to say that the frustration was apparent there. On

:44:51.:44:54.

the face of it, it looks like an astonishing situation. Pat McCartan

:44:55.:45:00.

has identified payments after the rules which range -- were changed in

:45:01.:45:08.

2012. It is also ludicrous that they were allowed before that. Clear

:45:09.:45:13.

evidence was broadcast on the whole of Northern Ireland and the

:45:14.:45:17.

Commission response was that it was admissible, without exhalation, and

:45:18.:45:23.

that it should not be processed. That only raises more questions than

:45:24.:45:25.

answers. If you're talking about expenses claims for heating system

:45:26.:45:36.

is being run around the clock. There is absolutely a clear case that must

:45:37.:45:40.

be set out of how, if this was not wrong, how was it not wrong? You

:45:41.:45:44.

cannot say it is admissible and drop the paperwork down the back of the

:45:45.:45:48.

radiator and forget about it. To be clear, what we're talking about,

:45:49.:45:54.

what is still outstanding, what Pat McCartan was referring to, was the

:45:55.:45:59.

?100,000 between April and December 20 12. That is the issue. The point

:46:00.:46:04.

is that the Assembly Commission is effectively leasing itself. It is

:46:05.:46:09.

policing itself will stop if they do not choose to rip accepted the

:46:10.:46:14.

recommendations, there is nothing anybody can do. The Nice to be some

:46:15.:46:18.

sort of enforcement here. We will speak to you both later.

:46:19.:46:19.

Now, millions of pounds worth of work will be lost

:46:20.:46:23.

and jobs are at risk if a green energy scheme is scrapped -

:46:24.:46:26.

that's the claim from renewables companies

:46:27.:46:27.

after the Enterprise Minister, Jonathan Bell,

:46:28.:46:29.

has announced his intention to close the renewable heat incentive scheme.

:46:30.:46:31.

Here's what the Minister had to say last week.

:46:32.:46:37.

My department faces a huge budgetary pressure, given the decision of the

:46:38.:46:44.

Chancellor of the Exchequer to limit the amount of money paid to Northern

:46:45.:46:49.

Ireland out of the UK part for renewable heat. Now, that is why I

:46:50.:46:53.

signalled my intention last week to ease that financial pressure. Which

:46:54.:47:02.

could amount to over ?27 million. By announcing an immediate closure to

:47:03.:47:05.

the scheme and by bringing Ford and order to suspend the scheme, as soon

:47:06.:47:11.

as possible. I want to make every one know that I'm listening to the

:47:12.:47:13.

industry and I'm listening to individuals who are currently

:47:14.:47:17.

installing renewable heat boilers. I will come back and try to give that

:47:18.:47:20.

clarity at the early possible date. Now I'm joined by the chair of the

:47:21.:47:23.

DETI committee, Patsy McGlone, Welcome to you both. In the Autumn

:47:24.:47:37.

Statement, George Osborne announced cuts to the funding for real for

:47:38.:47:41.

schemes. If Northern Ireland goes over its limit, it comes out of the

:47:42.:47:47.

DETI budget. This is an issue that goes back to the Exchequer in

:47:48.:47:50.

London, rather than the door of Jonathan Bell. Yes and no. It has

:47:51.:47:57.

emerged since that back as far as June 2014, it was anticipated that

:47:58.:48:03.

we would have 300 applications under the scheme within that financial

:48:04.:48:07.

year. Up to March 20 15. In November, it had already reached

:48:08.:48:14.

308. As of last Tuesday, they told us that concerns were raised about

:48:15.:48:21.

it last March. Concerns were raised in July. What we have here is a

:48:22.:48:25.

situation where this mess that has arrived, that has put individuals

:48:26.:48:29.

who wanted to install systems to the home, who took out loans on the foot

:48:30.:48:35.

of that, it has put them in problems. It has put businesses into

:48:36.:48:42.

trouble. They had invested in the scheme which they thought would last

:48:43.:48:46.

until the end of March. Another ?100,000 of equipment and 25 jobs

:48:47.:48:53.

being at risk in one case. It is estimated that this could jeopardise

:48:54.:48:59.

jobs. We have a mess at the Department. We have a mess at the

:49:00.:49:02.

Department in your view. If the department should have been aware of

:49:03.:49:07.

these issues, so should your committee. You were aware of this as

:49:08.:49:12.

well but in actual fact, this announcement was released Friday a

:49:13.:49:20.

week ago. It was an attempt to bury the story. People got on the phones

:49:21.:49:24.

to us and immediately I acted as chair of the committee. This is

:49:25.:49:34.

seriously jeopardising jobs. I'm sure the department will deny

:49:35.:49:37.

burying the story. We did ask Jonathan Bell to take part in the

:49:38.:49:40.

story but he is not available today. Do you think that Department has

:49:41.:49:46.

mishandled the situation? I think this was a good idea as a scheme

:49:47.:49:50.

when it was launched. It took some time for people who could denture

:49:51.:49:55.

use it and benefit from it to appreciate it. What has happened is

:49:56.:49:58.

that the economics of the scheme have changed. What has happened is

:49:59.:50:03.

the Chancellor of the Exchequer setup the warning sign on the ward

:50:04.:50:10.

when -- in the Autumn Statement. I did not notice it then and Patsy is

:50:11.:50:15.

saying that his committee has only just begun to look at it carefully.

:50:16.:50:20.

Jonathan Bell in how did the scheme. I think he was already on the skids

:50:21.:50:25.

on the day he took up office. There is certain ambiguity about that. The

:50:26.:50:29.

critical question is that the scheme is proving to successful, in the

:50:30.:50:34.

sense that it is getting too many people making bids, it will cost the

:50:35.:50:39.

taxpayer a lot of money, and the question is, how well have they

:50:40.:50:42.

handled acting out of the scheme? I think this is where Patsy is making

:50:43.:50:47.

his case. Backing out of the scheme has been handled badly and too

:50:48.:50:51.

slowly. His point is that dumb bunnies are going to suffer, they

:50:52.:50:56.

are going to lose out and people will potentially lose jobs. --

:50:57.:51:02.

companies are going to suffer. There came the rush. People have given us

:51:03.:51:10.

the figures where the potential bidders have gone up or stop they

:51:11.:51:13.

are heading for an impossible position for any minister and for

:51:14.:51:18.

the taxpayer. The minister wanted to close it down as big as possible. He

:51:19.:51:22.

may be moved to slowly and he is now caught with a possible legal

:51:23.:51:26.

nightmare because he has announced this closure with braided notice. So

:51:27.:51:32.

what happens next? -- with braided full very little notice. They are

:51:33.:51:43.

potentially in a limo situation? The officials say they became aware of

:51:44.:51:47.

the scale of the problem last March. They do it to the minister's

:51:48.:51:50.

attention in July. There is a mechanism used which is demand led

:51:51.:51:54.

so that terrorists are adjusted up and down to reduce the heat in the

:51:55.:52:00.

system and reduce the demand for the scheme. That mechanism exists.

:52:01.:52:05.

Unfortunately, we did not have it here. That is another question that

:52:06.:52:12.

will have to be asked. The difficulty is the suddenness of this

:52:13.:52:17.

scheme. The actual legislation and tariffs set for the scheme rock up

:52:18.:52:22.

until the 31st of March. People made projections on that, business

:52:23.:52:25.

projections, people took out loans on the foot of that. He is only

:52:26.:52:30.

bringing it to a close a few weeks earlier. If it was going to the end

:52:31.:52:36.

of March and year is closing it at the end of February, what is the

:52:37.:52:39.

fuss estimate if you are developing a scheme, if you're putting in these

:52:40.:52:45.

biomass oilers and the like, 03 weeks, countries were working to

:52:46.:52:52.

that date. You were taking orders for equipped, working to that date.

:52:53.:52:56.

They have been installing this in homes and we had the farmers union

:52:57.:52:58.

with us. They were working to that date. They had a project in mind of

:52:59.:53:07.

around upwards of 50 farms. If they do not cancel this, they are going

:53:08.:53:14.

to lose ?30 million. But it was staring him in the face last year.

:53:15.:53:20.

He is caught in between a rock and a hard place. Having been caught in

:53:21.:53:27.

that position, he now has to move, presumably in a way that is legal,

:53:28.:53:33.

in bringing this scheme to a close was what does he have to do? No

:53:34.:53:37.

schemes will be approved after the 29th of February, which is coming

:53:38.:53:41.

forward a month. There is a human doubt there. Some people who saw the

:53:42.:53:47.

way in which the scheme is expanding rapidly may well have said, this

:53:48.:53:50.

will not keep going, we had better get in now. That business of getting

:53:51.:53:54.

in now as given rise to a discussion, is this use or abuse of

:53:55.:53:59.

the system? Just in a sentence, it comes before the Assembly tomorrow,

:54:00.:54:03.

I think. What happens but it comes before the rule extended sheen the

:54:04.:54:07.

attention of the scheme, until the 29th of February. It may be extended

:54:08.:54:14.

beyond the short time they gave us. It does before the semi tomorrow and

:54:15.:54:19.

it will come to a vote. It is whether they vote in favour of that.

:54:20.:54:21.

Would you vote in favour question on no, I have had firms in touch with

:54:22.:54:25.

me saying it is an unrealisable deal. They were led up the garden

:54:26.:54:31.

path, basically, they feel. It will be interesting to see what happens

:54:32.:54:32.

tomorrow. Thank you. Let's take a look back

:54:33.:54:34.

at the political week in 60 seconds The issue of abortion dominated the

:54:35.:54:48.

headlines, and one MLA told his personal story. I don't like talking

:54:49.:54:52.

about this because I get emotional but, believe me, that decision to

:54:53.:54:59.

give us to this day. The Justice Minister revealed what courthouses

:55:00.:55:09.

were -- would close. Jim Wells provoked a controversy.

:55:10.:55:16.

The Secretary of State warned about people rewriting the past. In

:55:17.:55:22.

certain isolated cases, the state was at Fort but it would be entirely

:55:23.:55:29.

wrong to say that it was endemic. The chief cos the ball -- Chief

:55:30.:55:36.

Constable says we need to talk about the past.

:55:37.:55:45.

Just time for a final word from Allison and Newton.

:55:46.:55:51.

I wonder what you make of the legacy inquest unit, and us by the Lord

:55:52.:55:58.

Chief Justice on Friday? There are still the gauche Asians going on

:55:59.:56:01.

about how the past will be dealt with. -- skilled negotiations going

:56:02.:56:09.

on. It indicates that it is revealing about where that debate is

:56:10.:56:13.

going on. The British governor did looking confident, I think was that

:56:14.:56:16.

is that a constructive contributing? It was very hurtful to the victims

:56:17.:56:20.

who think there will be an attempt to get a line drawn in the sand

:56:21.:56:22.

before there is any justice. That's it - now back

:56:23.:56:25.

to Andrew in London. MPs are on their half term holiday

:56:26.:56:26.

at the moment, so you might be forgiven for thinking we'll be

:56:27.:56:40.

in for a quiet time next week. On Thursday, David Cameron heads

:56:41.:56:43.

to Brussels where he hopes to finalise his deal on Britain's

:56:44.:56:48.

membership of the EU at what's been dubbed the "crunch"

:56:49.:56:51.

European summit. We will see how crunchy it is. Tim,

:56:52.:57:04.

Mr Hammond, the Foreign Secretary this morning, Matthew Hancock on

:57:05.:57:07.

this programme, they both said, let's see what the final deal is

:57:08.:57:11.

because there could be more in it than the draft settlement, more for

:57:12.:57:14.

the British government. I would suggest that the draft settlement

:57:15.:57:18.

for Mr Cameron is as good as it gets. That may well be the case,

:57:19.:57:22.

journalists have been seeking rabbits from hats for many weeks,

:57:23.:57:26.

taking them out, and Eurosceptics have been shooting them long before

:57:27.:57:30.

David Cameron got anywhere near it. One thing I understand David Cameron

:57:31.:57:33.

will do before next weekend, he can explain what he means by this

:57:34.:57:40.

sovereignty lock, the sovereign Parliament will be... That is all

:57:41.:57:44.

smoke and mirrors. It is but it is the one thing he has got left. It is

:57:45.:57:47.

something they can do in domestic law and explain how the Supreme

:57:48.:57:51.

Court here will hold the European Court to the letter of the European

:57:52.:57:56.

treaty. It is effectively getting a British court to say that the

:57:57.:57:59.

European Court is not adhering to its own treaties. If the summit

:58:00.:58:03.

finishes on Friday I suspect he will unveil that either at a press

:58:04.:58:06.

conference or we will see him doing Andrew Marr next Sunday and telling

:58:07.:58:09.

the world all about it. He is going to do Andrew Marr next Sunday.

:58:10.:58:13.

Politically the Prime Minister would be in trouble with his own party if

:58:14.:58:17.

this deal was further watered down, wouldn't he? He needed to be

:58:18.:58:22.

strengthened. I'm hearing stories coming out of Brussels saying there

:58:23.:58:27.

is a rabbit or two, but whether they are tiny little rabbits or great big

:58:28.:58:33.

ones I don't know. I think this is a campaign that will be won by fear,

:58:34.:58:37.

not by terrific bribes and isn't the deal wonderful? What Philip Hammond

:58:38.:58:40.

said this morning was very important, that if we vote to leave,

:58:41.:58:46.

Europe will make sure our conditions are as bad as possible for fear of

:58:47.:58:51.

the whole thing falling apart, other countries peeling off. That's the

:58:52.:58:55.

serious threat. The idea that we will get a wonderful deal out of

:58:56.:58:59.

Europe or that France will go on being our border guards and look

:59:00.:59:03.

after our camp in Calais, I think it's those sorts of fears that will

:59:04.:59:10.

win it. If Mr Sarkozy wins in France, it could change the camp

:59:11.:59:14.

whether we are in or outcome he is campaigning on that. He could,

:59:15.:59:18.

that's true. Next year is next year. The problem with all these things,

:59:19.:59:23.

like the out campaign saying if in, Europe will react like this, none of

:59:24.:59:31.

that is provable until it happens. We had a close colleague of Angela

:59:32.:59:37.

Merkel today warning that it would be bloody, our terms, if we leave.

:59:38.:59:43.

And why shouldn't they say that? There's no point in issuing the

:59:44.:59:47.

threat afterwards. If they want to threaten, now is the time. Doesn't

:59:48.:59:54.

mean he's not a good man just because we haven't heard from him,

:59:55.:59:59.

but we haven't. It seems, I was suggesting, that Michael Gove, in

:00:00.:00:03.

terms of which Cabinet ministers are going to go with remain and which

:00:04.:00:06.

ones are going to go without, it seems that Michael Gove is becoming

:00:07.:00:09.

the pivotal figure, here. Suggestions that if he decides to go

:00:10.:00:16.

out, and apparently he is incredibly anguished about this, Boris Johnson

:00:17.:00:18.

could well follow. If he doesn't, they might not. Michael Gove is

:00:19.:00:24.

genuinely torn. Downing Street were very confident at the beginning of

:00:25.:00:28.

this year that Michael Gove would be with the Prime Minister. But anybody

:00:29.:00:31.

that has no Michael Gove, and are used to be his colleague, he will

:00:32.:00:36.

know that in his heart of hearts he would like to get Britain out of the

:00:37.:00:39.

European Union, it is as simple as that. At he knows that if he

:00:40.:00:43.

campaigns to take Britain out of Europe, what he is essentially doing

:00:44.:00:47.

is joining a campaign which, if successful, will destroy David

:00:48.:00:51.

Cameron's Korea, and George Osborne's and hand the Tory

:00:52.:00:55.

leadership to the two people in the Conservative Party he loathes more

:00:56.:00:58.

than anybody else, Theresa May and Boris Johnson. So he is torn. The

:00:59.:01:03.

thing about Boris Johnson, in his heart of hearts, believes Britain

:01:04.:01:09.

should be in the European Union. But there is one thing Boris Johnson

:01:10.:01:12.

believes more than that, which is that Boris Johnson should be Prime

:01:13.:01:16.

Minister. Therefore he needs to do what is best for that, which is why

:01:17.:01:23.

he needs this sort of thing. Grateful for that blinding

:01:24.:01:25.

revelation that Boris Johnson wants to be Prime Minister. If Cameron can

:01:26.:01:29.

keep Michael Gove on board, there will be fewer defections other than

:01:30.:01:36.

the usual suspects? I think that's right. Somebody described him to me

:01:37.:01:39.

as the big Domino and if he falls, others could. Cameron is trying

:01:40.:01:47.

quite hard. He had Gove in last week trying to persuade him. What they

:01:48.:01:50.

think they've got is an enlargement from Gove that if he does opt to

:01:51.:01:54.

follow his conscience and vote out he will not do much campaigning. I

:01:55.:01:58.

suspect he would do one interview and sit the thing out, and they

:01:59.:02:02.

think if he is not out there leading it, that will not do quite as much

:02:03.:02:06.

damage. We know Alan Johnson is heading up the labour effort to stay

:02:07.:02:11.

in, but is Jeremy Corbyn really going to campaign hard to stay in?

:02:12.:02:14.

Is the Labour Party going to spend money on this campaign? I very much

:02:15.:02:19.

doubt it. It's not in his heart. His instincts are to pick up the wrong

:02:20.:02:25.

issue, today there he is saying that he thinks Cameron is wrong on

:02:26.:02:27.

immigration, we should have much easier immigration, he shouldn't be

:02:28.:02:33.

trying to cut back the number of EU migrants coming into the country.

:02:34.:02:36.

That is no way to win it, I presume he knows it. It's very important

:02:37.:02:41.

that Labour voters are brought on board. Mr Cameron needs them, too.

:02:42.:02:48.

Cameron really needs Labour voters. It ought to be the great, strong,

:02:49.:02:52.

uniting message for Labour. Virtually all Labour MPs are

:02:53.:02:57.

strongly in favour part from a maverick hand. Quite the clear

:02:58.:03:00.

majority of the Parliamentary party. It should have been a big contrast,

:03:01.:03:04.

Labour pro-European, Tories all over the place. I'm afraid Jeremy Corbyn

:03:05.:03:07.

will muddy that. final debate when he laid into the

:03:08.:03:25.

European Union. He hates the new free trade area. He said he would

:03:26.:03:31.

support our membership but push four reform from within. A few days

:03:32.:03:37.

before the big summit which is meant to clinch it one way or the other

:03:38.:03:41.

are we heading for a June 23 referendum? Almost certainly and

:03:42.:03:47.

thank God. So we can plan our summer holidays and ministers and advisers

:03:48.:03:51.

feel the same. Never mind about the needs of the nation. It looks like

:03:52.:03:56.

there will be some kind of deal and they may give him a bit more in some

:03:57.:04:01.

areas. Cameron is determined to press on with this, he does not want

:04:02.:04:06.

this hanging over his government. Every Monday he

:04:07.:06:24.

Will have backed out of the referendum, that is a factor in

:06:25.:06:32.

several politicians cut relations right now. As I discovered, the

:06:33.:06:35.

front runners have been very coy about it all. What is this about? A

:06:36.:06:40.

programme about the Tory leadership. What on earth is the

:06:41.:06:55.

relevance of that to your many millions of viewers

:06:56.:06:58.

when you consider that there is no, thankfully, thankfully,

:06:59.:07:01.

and there is no vacancy Nor is there going to be one

:07:02.:07:02.

for a very long time. Oh well, maybe I'll get lucky

:07:03.:07:06.

with some of the other Apparently, Health Secretary,

:07:07.:07:12.

Jeremy Hunt, might Speculation surrounds

:07:13.:07:15.

the Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb, Education

:07:16.:07:17.

Secretary Nicky Morgan once a female candidate,

:07:18.:07:18.

preferably her. Defra Secretary, Liz Truss

:07:19.:07:20.

is repeated to be ambitious. There are mutterings

:07:21.:07:22.

about Business Secretary, Sajid Javid, but is he really

:07:23.:07:23.

angling to be the next And is a leadership bid

:07:24.:07:26.

while Michael Gove is swinging over which side to back

:07:27.:07:31.

in the referendum. Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom

:07:32.:07:33.

is holding surgeries in the Commons tearoom and a mystery member

:07:34.:07:38.

of the 2015 intake is rumoured to have big plans and

:07:39.:07:41.

Employment Minister and arch Eurosceptic Priti Patel is expected

:07:42.:07:43.

to have a profile-boosting role in the Out Campaign

:07:44.:07:45.

and then there is Liam Fox. This week, a poll

:07:46.:07:51.

on the website run by Paul Goodman found that the former

:07:52.:07:55.

Defence Secretary was favourite If you speculate that the hard right

:07:56.:07:58.

of Conservative Party membership, is about a fifth of it,

:07:59.:08:10.

that sounds fair enough. What was remarkable about his score

:08:11.:08:14.

was in fact how low it was, it was the joint-lowest

:08:15.:08:18.

score for a leading A lot of this is total

:08:19.:08:19.

nonsense, but it presages potentially three years of Tory

:08:20.:08:26.

leadership gossip for the people The Tory party would be in a

:08:27.:08:55.

leadership crisis but the country would be in a huge political crisis.

:08:56.:08:59.

It would go on for years. It would take at least smack years of very

:09:00.:09:04.

painful negotiations, maybe longer, to get us out of these treaties.

:09:05.:09:09.

Nobody has done it before, nobody knows what it would look like.

:09:10.:09:14.

Cameron would have to go. The humiliation would be appalling.

:09:15.:09:20.

Osborne's chances would be shot to pieces. By then, the country might

:09:21.:09:25.

have changed its mind and be upset by having narrowly voted against for

:09:26.:09:30.

getting out. They might regret it. Where does that leave whoever the

:09:31.:09:37.

future leader is? Do you agree? This whole contest will boil down to

:09:38.:09:42.

several binary choices, in and out of Europe, George Osborne and not

:09:43.:09:45.

George Osborne. Boris Johnson Atmos Boris Johnson. Woman and man. -- or

:09:46.:09:52.

not Boris Johnson. Depending on the circumstances we will find a leader.

:09:53.:09:58.

The young and old. 2015 intake are getting bored about George Osborne

:09:59.:10:01.

is nearly inevitable and if not him, Boris Johnson. They are thinking

:10:02.:10:05.

about running one of their own. There are names that we haven't even

:10:06.:10:10.

considered that may enter the fray. David Cameron might not go

:10:11.:10:13.

immediately but if he has to go he would be the walking wounded through

:10:14.:10:17.

the summer and into the autumn. Mr George Osborne probably the same. He

:10:18.:10:22.

kind of throws everything open. It stars. There is a lot of chat

:10:23.:10:27.

amongst ministers about what happens if we vote to leave -- it does. The

:10:28.:10:31.

Prime Minister says we trigger at ago 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, two

:10:32.:10:36.

years negotiation and I should do that -- at Article 50. One school of

:10:37.:10:42.

thought is that the prime and will bring in David Davies as the Deputy

:10:43.:10:47.

Prime Minister and lead the exit negotiations but I can't see that. I

:10:48.:10:51.

think that will be a leadership contest and the defining feature is

:10:52.:10:56.

who is the best person to lead those exit negotiations. And you would

:10:57.:11:00.

assume that a minister who has said we should leave would be best

:11:01.:11:04.

placed. Maybe it will be possible to have administered through said we

:11:05.:11:08.

should be in but maybe not wholly involved in the remaining campaign.

:11:09.:11:12.

A good Eurosceptic track record. Boris Johnson? Theresa May Possibly.

:11:13.:11:19.

Do you want Boris Johnson negotiating the future of the treaty

:11:20.:11:24.

over two years? I think Boris Johnson's position will be weaker

:11:25.:11:27.

than anyone things because of the dithering. It is so transparent and

:11:28.:11:33.

nakedly ambitious. Whether he is fought in or out. Anybody who is

:11:34.:11:38.

interested in politics feels passionately in or out and he can't

:11:39.:11:42.

pretend to be waiting for these minor negotiations on this

:11:43.:11:44.

fundamental issue that he has tackled all his life. Even if we

:11:45.:11:49.

wrote to remain, what is your view on what is sometimes called even if

:11:50.:11:55.

we vote to remain, the Conservatives, whose heart would not

:11:56.:11:59.

have been in remaining, will want someone to lead them after Mr

:12:00.:12:04.

Cameron, much later, who was Brexit? There is a strong case for that.

:12:05.:12:09.

Most of the polls suggest that 70% of the conservative grassroot is a

:12:10.:12:16.

Brexitier. There are polls which show, to speak up for Boris, that he

:12:17.:12:21.

is wildly more popular than any other conservative. There are

:12:22.:12:24.

conservative MPs who will look at those polls, the one in the

:12:25.:12:29.

Independent this morning he is the only main stream politician who has

:12:30.:12:34.

a positive rating. This is a 2-stage process, the MPs put you on the

:12:35.:12:39.

ballot paper, the grassroots people select you. Only two names go

:12:40.:12:43.

forward. You need to get past the MPs and then make your case to the

:12:44.:12:49.

wider. If Boris gets through, to being one of the final two, given

:12:50.:12:54.

his popularity with the Tory grassroots, could change, it could

:12:55.:12:58.

be skin deep, I don't know, but wouldn't he be an unstoppable? He

:12:59.:13:03.

doesn't have a huge backing at Westminster, a lot of MPs don't know

:13:04.:13:08.

him. Will he survive the rigours of a campaign? The interview on the

:13:09.:13:12.

Andrew Marr show, he faced awkward questions about one of his friends.

:13:13.:13:16.

You assume he will get through that process. We are talking about a

:13:17.:13:21.

contest after we have voted to stay in. Important lesson from 1975,

:13:22.:13:26.

Harold Wilson was a massively strengthened after that win. He

:13:27.:13:30.

moved Tony Benn at the crucial post of industry because he was very

:13:31.:13:33.

strong. The Prime Minister will pretty strong on that.

:13:34.:13:40.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:41.:13:45.

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