15/09/2013 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland

after the summer recess, and the party conference season is already

upon us. First, the Liberal Democrats. Have a great conference.

Nick Clegg has some convincing to do, according to our very own Sunday

Politics poll, his troops don't like his coalition bedmates. The latest

poll of the country also has the Lib Dems languishing behind UKIP in

fourth place, with only 9%. Paddy Ashdown! So can the Lib Dems

claw their way back, come the election in 2015? We will talking to

former leader, now the party's general election commander-in-chief,

Paddy Ashdown. George Osborne is a happy bunny

Coming up in Northern Ireland: these days,

Coming up in Northern Ireland: Sorting flags, parading and the

past. Sorting flags, parading and the

Can Richard Haas succeed where Sorting flags, parading and the

others have failed? We'll hear from Sorting flags, parading and the

the DUP and Sinn Fein. Join Sorting flags, parading and the

now heading for the exit. We will hear from Nick Clegg

now heading for the exit. We will the DUP and Sinn Fein. Join me just

now heading for the exit. We will hear from Nick Clegg on what it

signifies. And freshly showered from the Great

North Run and looking as fresh as daisies, the best and brightest

political panel in the business. Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Iain

Martin, who will be tweeting throughout the programme.

Now, their leader is our Deputy Prime Minister. They are the junior

partners of our coalition government. They like the colour

yellow and they have not won a general election since dinosaurs

walked the earth. Now they are behind UKIP in the polls, so as the

party gathers for its annual bash this year in Glasgow, what is on

their mind? Who are the people gathering at the Clyde this weekend?

their mind? Who are the people Before they started drinking, we

surveyed 580 Liberal Democrat councillors in England and Wales,

with the help of some pollsters, comrade. The first question we asked

was, if the next election results in a hung parliament, which team would

you rather go into coalition with, the Reds or the blues? Lib Dem

councillors said Labour, two to one. the Reds or the blues? Lib Dem

Tories or Labour? It is not for us the Reds or the blues? Lib Dem

to say. It is for the voters to say. We will decide depending on

what the voters tell us. Your councillors favoured a coalition

with Labour. Well, is on the table. Who would you

rather play table football against? I would rather play against you,

because I am winning. So in the Lib Dems shop, which policies are

winning 's which ones are heading for the bargain bin? The most

winning 's which ones are heading popular policy was a mansion tax on

house is worth more than £2 million, popular policy was a mansion tax on

which was supported by 80 -- 86% of councillors. The next most popular

policy was scrapping the Trident nuclear deterrent, supported by 72%

of councillors. Then there was the reinstatement of the 50p top rate of

income tax. 70% of councillors like the look of that. When it came to

the idea of banning the burka in public places like schools and

airports, 45% of councillors were in favour. Finally, a ban on topless

Page three model is won the support of 33% of councillors. Why is it so

popular, the idea of a mansion tax? It is a much fairer tax. We know

there are people out there with very expensive houses. Which of these is

most important to you? Banning Trident. The cold war ended in

1989. Another one was the idea of banning the burka in public places.

No, I feel people should wear whatever they like. If they want to

No, I feel people should wear wear the birth or a kilt or if they

want to be naked or not wear anything. We are the party of jobs.

Thank you. Last night, a fully clothed Nick Clegg rallied his

troops, but if he was not around, who would Lib Dem councillors want

instead? Business Secretary Vince Cable was most popular, with a third

of the votes. In second place, the party's president, Tim Farron, with

27%. 10% went to Danny Alexander, Chief Secretary to the Treasury,

while the business minister Joe Swinson received 7%. The Energy

Secretary Ed Davey scooped 6%, and in last place, Steve Webb, the

pensions minister, who got 5%. If any of these councillors want to

talk to me about it, I would be delighted to hear from them. Is that

a bid for a leadership campaign? It certainly isn't. What do you think

of these? That is quite a collection. These are the

contenders. But our survey is not the only one that has got tongues

wagging in Glasgow, because the Lib Dem leadership have commissioned

their own poll which showed that 75% Dem leadership have commissioned

of the country will never vote Dem leadership have commissioned

the party, no matter what they do. Also meeting here this weekend, this

the party, no matter what they do. group of bikers. But Liberal

Democrats like to think they have got just as much va-va-voom, even if

a big chunk of the country doesn't. Add, back in his hometown. So, the

Lib Dems are on 9% in the polls. Much of their party thinks they are

moving in the wrong direction. Earlier, I spoke to former party

moving in the wrong direction. leader Paddy Ashdown. He has been

put in charge of heading up the 2015 election campaign. I asked him if

the mood in Glasgow was grim. No. In many ways, as you know, Tory old

commentator that you are just as I am a hoary old member at the other

end of the camera, we have been there, done that and got the

T-shirt. Where you are in the midterm of a government, especially

when you are in government and the country is going for in a deep

economic crisis, has almost no relevance to where you might be when

the nipple come to consider how they will vote in 600 days time -- when

the people come to consider how they will vote. We do not dismiss polls,

but they are a snapshot of what is happening now and give little

indication of where we will be. My guess is, for what it is worth, that

as we come to the election, the public will be in a very serious,

probably frightened mood. Their main public will be in a very serious,

thoughts will be, who maintains my job, makes sure I don't have to pay

thoughts will be, who maintains my to higher mortgage? The coalition

has delivered not only the required policies to make Britain's economy

prosperous, but also its society fair. That is what people will want

to see. I think coalition politics are here to stay and we have a role

to play in it. But you are in a grim mood this morning. You tweeted that

you were not happy with how the Observer newspaper handled your

interview. What was the problem? Is there anything we can do to help?

There is probably something they could do to help. I have no

arguments with the interview. The headline they chose to put on it

late last night was outrageous, misrepresentative and in one case in

accurate. What was the headline? Something about Ashdown wants a

coalition with the Tories, or at Something about Ashdown wants a

least they gave that in for us -- inference. Let me make this point.

We are coming up to the next election. I am in charge of the

campaign. Any journalist who in these next two years says that any

Liberal Democrat prefers anything else in terms of the outcome of a

coalition but the result of the ballot box dictating that outcome,

that any prefer one side to another over and they want to see a

coalition determined by the electors over and they want to see a

in the votes, will get a bloody hard time from me, no matter who they

are. We take the warning. A survey of Lib Dem councillors shows that in

the event of another hung parliament, only 16% of your

the event of another hung councillors want to renew the

coalition with the Tories. That is a councillors want to renew the

clear sign that your activists want a change of direction. I don't think

it is news that as a left-wing party, we find it more congenial

with those on the left wing, but that is not the issue. You saw it

was not the issue at the last election. We are servants of the

ballot box. We do watch the British people require us to do to provide a

stable government in the interests of our country. I am sure you have

got the point by now. I have fought the Tories all my life. But when

Labour run away from their the Tories all my life. But when

responsibility to amend the economic crisis, was this right for the

country? That is what drives me. Let me say again. The people will

determine who are going to be in any coalition, should there be one, the

voters and nobody else. It is not about what we like. I understand

that. But your own internal polls show that Mr Clegg and the

leadership are not taking the party with them on that. I don't think

that is true. Nick Clegg has done what no other party leader has done.

He took the coalition agreement to the party, and they voted for it. So

it is not true to say that members of the party are moving in a

different direction. I think we are extraordinarily united. I did not

expect them to be so under these pressures, but they have surprised

me and made me joyful at the same time. The party has done what it

needs to do. This is what time. The party has done what it

done in local government for a long time. We may have our private likes

and dislikes, but the thing that dictates the formation of a

coalition is the ballot box. You have said that three times. I can

say it again if you like. Please don't! What if your party votes to

reinstate tuition fees as party policy afternoon? We will have to

listen to that and act accordingly. You must listen to the voice of the

party and take it into account in what you do. I am always quite

careful, as you know, about answering hypothetical questions. I

don't think it is likely to happen, but if it did, we would have to do

consider it. I thought what distinguished Lib Dems was that if

your party conference voted for something, it was in the manifesto.

The manifesto is taken in its final form before the party for decision.

The party will express views at this stage in all sorts of ways. It did

in my leadership, too. The manifesto is democratically agreed by the

party at the time of the election, not before. The Tory conference will

be about how they think they have been vindicated, that austerity has

worked, the economy is turning a corner. But Nick Clegg's conference

announcements will be about plastic bags. Have you got the hang of this

coalition think? Andrew, you can always be guaranteed to put things

in the most discreditable form! That is part of your charm. That was

about to be a minor announcement in the middle of his speech. But it was

discovered beforehand. It has not been very popular in terms of how it

has been received, but that is not the central message. That leads me

to what I think is the biggest danger you face at the next

election. Isn't the biggest danger that the Tories, not you, if there

is an economic recovery, they will get the credit for it? I don't think

that is true. By the way, I don't think the electorate does gratitude.

The only time people cast a thank you vote was probably for Mrs

Thatcher over the sale of council houses. We could have a different

discussion over whether that was a good idea. But what you have done is

the underpinning for the promise of what you will do. In this

government, we have stayed firm on a what you will do. In this

very tough economic policy. But will you get the credit? What we have

done by ourselves, which the Tories would never have done, is make sure

that when the pain is felt, it is not the poor who feel it. We have

seen the biggest shift of taxation, lifting the poorest in the country

out of taxation, that has ever happened, including in the previous

Labour government. You are presiding over the biggest squeeze on living

standards in modern times. Because it is the biggest recession in

modern times. When you speak to the 2.5 million people who have been

lifted out of taxation altogether because of the Liberal Democrats,

speak to those who have had a £400 tax cut. You may be able to make the

speak to those who have had a £400 connection, Andrew, you are a sharp

observer, between a very deep economic crisis and difficulty for

everybody. But it is clear that if the Tories had been by themselves,

none of that would have happened. We have sought to shift the burden away

from the poorest in this country. I am part of that. So when we go into

the next election, the message will am part of that. So when we go into

be that if you want to continue to have a prosperous economy and a

society, only the Liberal Democrats will deliver that. Tim Farron says

he likes Ed Miliband and he does not want to diss him. Can you confirm

that there will be no dissing of Ed Miliband? It is not much my style.

I've never much liked comments about the other leaders. I do not intend

to make it so in the future. Can I'd finish up on Syria? You said after

the Syria vote that Britain was a hugely diminished country. Given it

was the British Parliament that said both sides on a course which could

now see Syria give up chemical weapons without records to military

action, would you like to withdraw these remarks and admit that you

should be proud and happy with what Britain has done? No. You and I both

know, because we are old observers, that that would never have happened

unless there had been an underpinning of a threat to use

force. The British Parliament resigned from that. We have no part

to play in the fact that Assad and Putin have moved towards peace for

to play in the fact that Assad and fear of military action. We decided

not to be part of that. It is fear of military action. We decided

exactly the opposite. Why would have liked to have seen our country join

in with those who are serious about upholding an international law which

has restrained even than axes and talent, but instead we resigned and

left others to make sure that we moved towards peace. -- even the

Maxis and Stalin. But if it had not been for the British Parliament, we

would not have had the time to allow this to happen. It has avoided war.

Job done, British Parliament. That would be true if it was accurate but

it is not. The resolution proposed a delay, that we should wait until the

inspectors came back. That time frame was absolutely nothing to do

inspectors came back. That time with the parliamentary vote. The

vote was going to incorporate that. I do not think you can claim what

vote was going to incorporate that. you claim. In the Balkans, I

remember that diplomacy, which was not reinforced by the threat of

military action, does not work. It is when diplomacy runs with a grain

of military action that it works. And if you want a fantastic

illustration of that, look at what is happening over the last two

weeks. By regret to say that our country, which has always been in

favour of engagement and not disengagement, had no part to play

in that. They give a joining us, Paddy Ashdown. Enjoy my old

university city. And you we would get to the Balkans

eventually, and we did. His biggest challenge is if the economy is

looking reasonably good by 2015, to get some credit for the Lib Dems,

when the Tories will want to halt it all. But his position is not to be

the necessary axeman. That is George Osborne's role. Their role is to be

the chaser party, taking the edge off. They will because of me going

on about the pupil premium and racing people out of income tax.

That is what you will hear from them, how they have taken the edge

of the cuts. Will that work? They are in a pretty good position. Even

if they have lost two thirds of the popular support, according to the

polls, I do not know anyone in Westminster methinks that will be

matched in their parliamentary representation. If they have 56 MPs

now, they might lose a dozen but they will not be decimated.

Strategically, they are in a better position than the reading of the

polls would tell you. I think Nick Clegg's survival has been one of the

stories of this Parliament. He is looking good at the comfort -- at

the conference. When he was at his lowest after the AV referendum,

people were saying he would survive and lead us into 2015 and beyond and

I thought that was fanciful. Believe it or not... Paddy Ashdown was

wrong, you were wrong and... I wasn't. I'm underestimated how bad

his rivals are. If you are Lib Dem member, however aggrieved you are

with Nick Clegg, you do not think, wouldn't it be great if Christian

was in charge? Nick Clegg is the best they have. -- Chris Huhne was

in charge. Of course, the people do not vote for the coalition

government and it is a consequence of the way they vote, a different

matter. If Janan Ganesh is right, and they lose 15 seats in the next

election, they could be still pivotal in the next government. It

could be. But there is a danger. Possibly the most amusing outcome

would be a Labour or Tory overall majority, which would be hilarious

for the look on Paddy Ashdown's face. The danger is they get trapped

constantly in talking about the politics of coalition and of a hung

parliament. And they are very puffed up and they enjoy Parliament and

they will enjoy the next one, up and they enjoy Parliament and

there is a possibility they will not be. While they are talking about the

Polish and themselves, they are not talking about the issues facing the

country. -- talking about the coalition. It was interesting that

he said that we are a left-wing party, not a centre-left party or a

centre party, but a left-wing party. I'm going to put myself in the

firing line and say that there is a big split between the Tim Farron

line who say they like Ed Miliband, and another one, Jeremy Browne in

the Home Office saying that Labour are intellectually lazy. The risk

clearly a clique around Nick Clegg who wants to be a synthetic party,

but that is not where the membership who wants to be a synthetic party,

and broad base is. The real activists are clearly of the left,

not just the centre-left. They are very pro-immigration and they want

to get rid of Trident. Mr Clegg's strategy has to be to take the party

to the centre. The something not happen at some stage? The poll

suggests it is a left-wing party. happen at some stage? The poll

Very left-wing. Other think the poll would have yielded -- would have

yielded the same results before the 2010 election. This is reflected by

the arithmetic. Whichever party is biggest will most likely be the ones

in coalition with the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg's on latitude to choose is

exaggerated by us. The choice is no tears, it is written into

parliamentary arithmetic. But if you remember the structure of the Lib

Dems, they can tie themselves up in infighting. -- the choice is not

ours. They are fundamentally stable. And Nick Clegg has had a

good conference last year, and will have another one this year. The

economy is better than it was a year ago. It could still go quite well

for him. Yes, it is one of the ago. It could still go quite well

stories of this Parliament, his survival and the way in which he has

prospered. But there are a lot of people out there, students,

campaigners, labour activists who have not forgotten what he has done

in government and are determined to get him. It will be a tough year and

a half. Tougher than he imagined. Now, not so long ago they were

writing George Osborne's political obituary. Be on the Omni shambles

budget of 2012 and a lacklustre performance of the British economy

meant his reputation work -- was in the dirt. -- the omnishambles. But

things have changed. The Chancellor is saying he has been vindicated. If

true, we're do that leave his critics? At your stuck on the

runway, it looks as though the British economy has taken off,

growing by 0.7% in British economy has taken off,

quarter. Forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised up words.

What's more, the office for National statistics says that the double-dip

recession never actually happened. Unemployment is down in the three

months to July and the number of people claiming jobseeker's

months to July and the number of allowance is falling at its

spasticity rate since 1997. On Monday, George Osborne said his

policies were bearing fruit. We held our nerve when many told us to

abandon our plans. As a result, thanks to the efforts and sacrifices

of the British people, Britain is turning a corner. The message for

his Labour critics was clear. The Chancellor thinks he was right and

they were wrong. And Chuka Umunna joins me now for the Sunday

interview. Good afternoon. Good afternoon.Do

you accept that the economy has turned a corner? I think it is good

that a stalled recovery appears to have come back to life, but let's

get this in perspective. We have had three wasted years. We have the

worst economic recovery in history. Debt is up and we have record youth

unemployment. If you ask your viewers who are watching this

programme if they feel better or worse off, compared to 2010, the

majority will tell you they feel worse because, on average, wages are

down by £1500 compared to May of 2010. That is the situation. The

questionnaires, what is the government going to do about it? And

one of the things we have seen talked about, Vince Cable has been

talking about this as well, is what is happening in the housing market.

It seems that much of the solution to powering the recovery in the eyes

of George Osborne lies in sorting out the housing market but the

problem is, we are at risk of being another housing bubble. Because of

problem is, we are at risk of being research that came out this week, we

know that housing in the UK is three times more expensive than in the US.

know that housing in the UK is three We know that house prices are rising

five times faster than wages, but we also know that the government is

five times faster than wages, but we building new housing at a slower

rate, the slowest rate that we have seen since the 1920s. Labour

complaining about a housing bubble, isn't that like Satan complaining

about seven? -- seven. We all know that we cannot go back to business

as usual. We need to build a new model of growth. But the housing

bubble you talk about, it is not a bubble. It might turn into one. I

said the risk of a bubble. It is nothing like what happened on the

labourer when the prices soared. As I said, in 2009, we had the crash

and we knew we needed to reconfigure the way that our economy works.

Having an economy based on crisis is not a good thing. We need to

rebalance the economy. We saw the unemployment statistics this week,

and it is welcomed overall, that climate has come down --

unemployment has come down. At half of the UK has seen unemployment go

up. And it went down in other parts. We know that we need to rebalance

our economy, so that we do not just rely on consumption, but that we

grow our productive sectors. And also that we grow our exports as

well. We know we have a continuing deficit. We always have a trade

deficit. There was never a trade surplus under Labour. Want to come

onto what you have mentioned but would you scrap the help to buy

scheme? We have not said that we would do that. Why not if it is

causing the bubble? If you let me finish, on one hand what that scheme

does at the moment, at the moment it is inhalation to a new scheme but

tomorrow -- next year it will be in relation to the existing scheme. If

you do not sort out the supply of housing, then that is a recipe for

the problems we have seen. Our argument is build more houses. Help

more people to buy them by all means but if you do not have the supply

you will end up with rising prices. That is obvious. Labour said that

government austerity would prevent the return of growth. Austerity is

still with us but so is growth. You were wrong. We never said that

growth would never return. What we said was that if you went for an

growth would never return. What we overly extreme deficit reduction

package, you would choke the recovery and you would choke growth.

That is what we saw for three years. If you say, look at the US economy,

it has grown at three times the rate of the UK economy. The German

economy has grown at twice the rate. But the British economy is growing

quicker than the American or German economy is now. But over time we

have not seen that happen. But it is now. That may be the case. But my

point is that those three years saw people undergoing huge stress and

worry. It is good that we have growth back again but the question

is, what kind of growth? What we have said... I'm going to come onto

that but your credibility depends on your previous analysis. And there

are doubts about it. This is what you said not that long ago. In

2012. Our economy has flat lined near the 0% mark...

You and the Labour Party said it had choked off growth. You were wrong.

We were not wrong, because we had three years where the economy was

not moving. Let's remind ourselves. Claude Osborne was predicting that

the economy was going to grow by 6.9% between the start of this

Parliament and now. It has grown by 1.8%. We did not say we would never

have a return to growth. You never said that austerity would only

temporarily delay growth. We have looked through your speeches and Ed

Balls'. We can't find any reference to say this is simply delaying the

recovery. You said austerity would choke off growth. If that is true,

why has it returned now? Did we say it would choke off growth for ever?

why has it returned now? Did we say We did not. You have changed your

tune. I think your package at the top of this programme, to frame this

around George Osborne, this is not a Westminster soap opera, it is

people's lives, and the people who deserve huge credit for the growth

we are seeing are our country's businesses, who despite the tough

economic times, have succeeded. They are the ones who have powered this

growth. It is not for us in Westminster to take credit. But you

blame the government for lack of growth. So therefore, when the

growth comes, the government has to take some credit. Look at the

situation Britain is in now. We know the recovery still has to reach many

parts of the country, but this is the OECD annualised growth in the

G-7, the world's guest economies. That is looking pretty healthy. That

is a recovery. I am not denying that That is looking pretty healthy. That

we are seeing a stalled recovery, but who benefits from the growth? On

average, your viewers have sustained a £1500 pay cut. That is the second

biggest fall in the G20 since May 2010. Because we had the biggest

financial services sector and took the biggest crash. Financial

services are still in decline. Financial services are about 10% of

the economy. They are not the only contributor to the economy. The

point is, who benefits? Unemployment is falling, but we don't just want

people to have any job, we want them to have decent jobs that pay a

weight you can live off and that are more secure. Let me show you the

unemployment figures. Your criticism has been that all the new jobs are

part-time. They are not now, they are full-time. Full-time

unemployment, up -- full-time employment, up 94,000. This is a

short time frame. It is since the recovery began. Half the jobs that

have been created since May 2010 have been part-time jobs. Roughly

107,000 people are working part-time who would like to work full-time.

Over the last 20 years, people now feel more insecure at work than

ever. The question is about what feel more insecure at work than

kind of growth and employment you are getting. The other point is the

uneven spread of this across our economy. In places like the

north-east and north-west, the Humber, the east of England, they

have seen unemployment increase. I agree that there was a regional

imbalance, but the service sector is growing, cheering and construction

are growing and financial services are in decline, so the rebalance is

happening. It is not happening to the degree we need to transform our

economy so that we have a long-term, sustainable model of

growth. That is why we need a comprehensive industrial strategy

that all of government works towards. Your party conference is

coming up. I am sure you are looking forward to it. Why do Ed Miliband's

approval ratings get worse the more people see of him? I don't accept

that. I have given you the figures. Polls go up and down. I have said

that on this programme before. But his approval rating has consistently

gone down. What actually matters our votes. Under Ed Miliband's

leadership, the Labour Party have votes. Under Ed Miliband's

put on almost 2000 extra councillors in places like Canada case, even

Whitney. What is wrong with Whitney? We have been putting on votes. Let

me show you this. This is the net satisfaction rating. Your leader is

now more unpopular than Gordon Brown was when he took Labour to the worst

defeat in living memory. Gordon Brown did not put on anything like

this number of councillors. Votes are what matter, Andrew. Few people

think Ed Miliband is a capable leader. Twice as many people think

over Spurs who lives on the moon. leader. Twice as many people think

These are polls. If you are talking to me about over Spurs lit, that

puts this into context, Europe session with polls! -- Elvis

Presley. Since 2010, we have put on thousands of members. Compare that

to the Conservative Party, which has not won a general election since

1992. They will not disclose their membership figures. Why -- why won't

you pledge to renationalise Royal Mail? Because that would be like

writing a blank cheque. We don't know at the moment how much the

writing a blank cheque. We don't government would receive for the

sale of Royal Mail? So how can I judge how much it would cost to buy

it back? That would be irresponsible. But the government

does not need to do this right now. The entire country is against it.

does not need to do this right now. Sources in the City and Whitehall

tell me that if Labour pledged to renationalise it, it would kill off

the flotation. So if you are against it, why don't you do it? For me to

pledge to renationalise Royal Mail would be like writing a blank

cheque. But if you put it in the prospectus, people in the City, who

know more about these things, say it would not happen, so why not do it?

Because that would be irresponsible. It would be like writing a cheque

for billions to renationalise Royal Mail. You would not have too right

at the check if it did not happen. I have to deal with the facts. I am

not good deal with the plot somebody might be speculating about in the

City. We have to be careful about this. For me to pledge to

renationalise it now would be like writing a bank cheque . We are going

to be a fiscally responsible government. That is why I am not

prepared to do that. Ed Balls will not be talking to you. You are

watching the Sunday Politics. Coming up in 20 minutes,

Hello and welcome to a new season Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland

Hello and welcome to a new season and after a long hot summer, the

Hello and welcome to a new season focus this week will be on the

Hello and welcome to a new season arrival of the American diplomat

Hello and welcome to a new season Richard Haas. He'll be here to chair

Hello and welcome to a new season cross-party talks aimed at getting

Hello and welcome to a new season agreement on the outstanding issues

Hello and welcome to a new season of flags and emblems, parades

Hello and welcome to a new season are his chances of success before

the end of the year? I'll are his chances of success before

Fein's John O'Dowd for their are his chances of success before

assessment. It's also been a summer are his chances of success before

two new faces at the Executive table are his chances of success before

with the SDLP's Mark H Durkan taking are his chances of success before

Sammy Wilson's ledger in are his chances of success before

in the programme to outline his are his chances of success before

vision for that department. And with are his chances of success before

and the writer and commentator Alex Kane.

and the writer and commentator Alex So, the all-party Haas talks get

and the writer and commentator Alex underway in Belfast on Tuesday. Some

and the writer and commentator Alex commentators have rated his chances

and the writer and commentator Alex of success as somewhere between slim

and the writer and commentator Alex and nonexistent.

and the writer and commentator Alex thoughts of Simon Hamilton and John

and the writer and commentator Alex O'Dowd in just a moment. And we'll

and the writer and commentator Alex also speak to our Political Editor,

Mark Devenport, who was with Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness when

Mark Devenport, who was with Peter they met Richard Haass during their

Mark Devenport, who was with Peter visit to New York last week. Here's

Mark Devenport, who was with Peter a reminder of what they've been

Mark Devenport, who was with Peter saying over the past couple of days.

backgrounds, there will always be difficulties. There is a resolve on

backgrounds, there will always be both of our parts to ensure that we

backgrounds, there will always be can get over the obstacles that we

backgrounds, there will always be are faced and in short that we get a

backgrounds, there will always be prosperity. We have to do everything

backgrounds, there will always be in our power to ensure that those

backgrounds, there will always be discussions find solutions to these

problems. I am always in solution finding mode. That is the only way

problems. I am always in solution to move forward. No outsider to

manufacture -- consensus, it is up to political leadership to make

manufacture -- consensus, it is up tough decisions.

You got a chance to make -- see the tough decisions.

three main players, what was the tough decisions.

mood music like when the cameras tough decisions.

were switched off? The ministers did tough decisions.

a pretty good job of keeping the act tough decisions.

together and demonstrating the tough decisions.

reasonably cordial working relationship. That was important for

a couple of reasons. Immediately because they were meeting various US

a couple of reasons. Immediately financial business figures, it would

a couple of reasons. Immediately not have been very seemly to be

a couple of reasons. Immediately having a big row in front of them.

a couple of reasons. Immediately Instead of not in front of the

children, it was not in front of the Instead of not in front of the

businessmen. Both parties will be Instead of not in front of the

going into the Haass talks process Instead of not in front of the

and it will not be a good time to be seen

and it will not be a good time to be toys out of the pram. But it did not

and it will not be a good time to be have two

and it will not be a good time to be with Martin McGuinness to see he was

and it will not be a good time to be still seething about the Maze

decision. It was the first time they still seething about the Maze

had met in person for two months? Yes, I think that is why they were

had met in person for two months? out of the tracks quickly to talk

about the leadership situation. In terms of their relationship, we saw

about the leadership situation. In a temporary truce, getting on with

what they had to do. We have not got a temporary truce, getting on with

any definitive answers as to whether a temporary truce, getting on with

there would be any one of the a temporary truce, getting on with

reprisal from Sinn Fein for what a temporary truce, getting on with

they still see as a broken a temporary truce, getting on with

agreement. We will come back to you a temporary truce, getting on with

in a moment. Let's hear from Simon a temporary truce, getting on with

Hamilton and John O'Dowd. Your a temporary truce, getting on with

thoughts on where we are as far as a temporary truce, getting on with

this process is concerned. Do you a temporary truce, getting on with

think we should resist the a temporary truce, getting on with

temptation of expecting the process a temporary truce, getting on with

to deliver too much so that we are a temporary truce, getting on with

not disappointed? I do not think we a temporary truce, getting on with

should make Richard Haass's job any a temporary truce, getting on with

more difficult. There are a temporary truce, getting on with

differences between our parties, a temporary truce, getting on with

taking something like the definition of a victim, I think is up orange to

look at someone who was killed by of a victim, I think is up orange to

their own bomb is evict him. -- I of a victim, I think is up orange to

think it is up orange. Is the family still suffer in the same way. It

think it is up orange. Is the family goes in between DUP and Sinn Fein

think it is up orange. Is the family differences. My party will be going

think it is up orange. Is the family into the talks fully committed to

think it is up orange. Is the family resolve the talks. If we want to

think it is up orange. Is the family build a prosperous future, these are

think it is up orange. Is the family the kind of issues that we have two

resolve. I am sure you will say the kind of issues that we have two

party is going in with a same the kind of issues that we have two

commitment, but flags and emblems, the kind of issues that we have two

parades in the past have proved impossible to resolve. There is no

parades in the past have proved evidence that anything has changed.

Blooper -- our political system evidence that anything has changed.

faces challenges. The letter to America from Peter Robinson has not

helped. But if the letter had had been sent, it would have been no

helped. But if the letter had had need for the show of unity. There is

helped. But if the letter had had going to have to be more than one

helped. But if the letter had had meeting to resolve the issues of

concern about both the break of the meeting to resolve the issues of

agreement of the peace Centre and meeting to resolve the issues of

how it was handled and how the government handled the relationships

how it was handled and how the between partners within government.

All of those things need to be between partners within government.

discussed, they need to be brought between partners within government.

back together and we have to ensure between partners within government.

that politics is being directed by between partners within government.

politicians and not by the actions between partners within government.

of those on the streets who are between partners within government.

determined to bring down the score between partners within government.

institutions. The question is, do we between partners within government.

need an external solution imposed by between partners within government.

a US diplomat and the British and between partners within government.

Irish governments, or do we have to between partners within government.

rely on local parties to bring between partners within government.

forward proposals they will have to between partners within government.

compromise on and reach an agreement? If we had not have had

the behaviour on the streets of Sinn agreement? If we had not have had

Fein where they sought agreement? If we had not have had

traumatised victims and glorify agreement? If we had not have had

terror in a part of County Tyrone, agreement? If we had not have had

we would not be where we were -- agreement? If we had not have had

where we are in terms of the agreement? If we had not have had

decision about the peace Centre at agreement? If we had not have had

the Maze. The idea of a peace Centre agreement? If we had not have had

for Northern Ireland, we have a agreement? If we had not have had

great story to tell, but they have agreement? If we had not have had

in itself become a source of conflict. So we have very difficult

in itself become a source of problems to grapple with here, we

in itself become a source of have made huge strides forward. What

in itself become a source of we have in Northern Ireland is far

better than what we had. We need we have in Northern Ireland is far

more compromises. Will the DUP come we have in Northern Ireland is far

to the table preparing for come we have in Northern Ireland is far

mines? We have shown that we are we have in Northern Ireland is far

willing to find solutions we can all we have in Northern Ireland is far

agree on. That is not easy or we have in Northern Ireland is far

straightforward. We have a long history of difficulties and just

straightforward. We have a long because we have difficulties on some

issues, does not mean we can work on because we have difficulties on some

other issues. But is Sinn Fein going because we have difficulties on some

to come to the table prepared to because we have difficulties on some

make copper mines? Richard Haass because we have difficulties on some

said that, we talked to him on Friday and he said, I expect the

party to compromise or it will not work. You have to be attached,

Myers. So you have to be prepared work. You have to be attached,

and you are prepared to compromise? As long as it is based on equality

and respect for all. I think we can wreak chick -- reach that,

and respect for all. I think we can that be through parades or dealing

with flags. But that could be that be through parades or dealing

painful for Sinn Fein and your that be through parades or dealing

supporters. It might involve difficult decisions being taken and

supporters. It might involve uncomfortable compromises.

Throughout the 20 years of this political, Myers is, we have had to

Throughout the 20 years of this make difficult decisions. He expect

an agreement to be adhered to when make difficult decisions. He expect

you agree it. And you ensure that make difficult decisions. He expect

those people who are trying to make difficult decisions. He expect

destroy the process do not lead the make difficult decisions. He expect

process. Soap, Myers will happen and will be uncomfortable for the DUP

process. Soap, Myers will happen and and you are willing to go on? -- so

process. Soap, Myers will happen and compromise will happen? We are in a

forced coalition so we have to work together, -- just because we have

differences does not mean we cannot together, -- just because we have

work together to resolve what we can together, -- just because we have

and try and build the sort of together, -- just because we have

Northern Ireland which everyone worlds -- everyone wants. It needs

Northern Ireland which everyone to be sorted out. We have got to

Northern Ireland which everyone grapple with these issues. What

Northern Ireland which everyone threatens getting the peaceful and

Northern Ireland which everyone prosperous Northern Ireland are

Northern Ireland which everyone these very issues. We need to ask

Northern Ireland which everyone you about other things. Peter

Northern Ireland which everyone Robinson has made it very clear that

Northern Ireland which everyone he is staying on as DUP leader, is

Northern Ireland which everyone that the right decision for the

party? Absolutely. DUP and unionism that the right decision for the

is where it is today, and much of that the right decision for the

the progress we have made over the that the right decision for the

last years is down to the vision and that the right decision for the

strategy set out by Peter Robinson. that the right decision for the

The difficulty for a leader is that that the right decision for the

when he starts going on record that the right decision for the

saying he is a leader, it is looking that the right decision for the

vulnerable. This is a manufactured that the right decision for the

crisis by the media, you will move that the right decision for the

onto someone else week. It is also that the right decision for the

to do with nuanced statementss by certain members of your party whose

to do with nuanced statementss by positions were not clear. Peter is

in an exceptionally strong position positions were not clear. Peter is

and he will be leader as long as he positions were not clear. Peter is

wants to be. You are responsible for positions were not clear. Peter is

the education of young people, we have had a worrying story about

the education of young people, we widespread child abuse, hell

the education of young people, we concerned are you and what can you

the education of young people, we do to reassure people watching this

the education of young people, we programme? There are investigations

the education of young people, we going on, the police and health

the education of young people, we service are involved. Some of the

the education of young people, we stories are alarming and

the education of young people, we disturbing. I will engage with my

the education of young people, we executive colleagues to ensure that

the education of young people, we everything that is being done can be

the education of young people, we done to ensure safety of young

people and ensure where victims of done to ensure safety of young

young people -- ensure victims of done to ensure safety of young

abuse are dealt with. With the done to ensure safety of young

required respect. Richard Haass says done to ensure safety of young

he wants compromise, but there are issues where there are no agreement.

John O'Dowd was more the difference in coming forward, than Martin

John O'Dowd was more the difference McGuinness had been, because he was

John O'Dowd was more the difference in Deputy first Minister context. It

John O'Dowd was more the difference is clear that this is not resolved.

John O'Dowd was more the difference What is not quite clear is how this

might permeate into the house What is not quite clear is how this

process or any other decisions they What is not quite clear is how this

have to make around the executive What is not quite clear is how this

table. And these outstanding issues What is not quite clear is how this

are not outstanding by accident. Exactly, . This could be one of the

are not outstanding by accident. easy ones to tackle, the parades,

because these parties had a working group which made some progress. With

the flags, they are starting at a standing start in the past is a very

the flags, they are starting at a difficult thing to grapple with. Are

the flags, they are starting at a you optimistic or pessimistic?

Always optimistic about these things. Firstly, Haass knows what

he's doing, he would not have taken things. Firstly, Haass knows what

on this task lightly if he did not things. Firstly, Haass knows what

think he could have a positive things. Firstly, Haass knows what

influence. Secondly, there has been things. Firstly, Haass knows what

progress already made in some of these areas before, the Ashdown

progress already made in some of report, other reports, there has

progress already made in some of been a lot of work already done.

progress already made in some of There have been

progress already made in some of they have ultimately been

progress already made in some of that could be picked up again by

progress already made in some of Haass and the parties as part of

this process. I suspect you are Haass and the parties as part of

sitting beside a pessimist. I am Haass and the parties as part of

pessimistic, the holder bait about -- the whole debate, I am in the

pessimistic, the holder bait about Haass not debate. You saw a

pessimistic, the holder bait about microcosm of this today. They were

both compromise but only under microcosm of this today. They were

certain conditions. He will come here and put down a series of

certain conditions. He will come questions, and they will spend the

certain conditions. He will come whole time discussing what is meant

certain conditions. He will come by the questions, and never

certain conditions. He will come the copper mines. Will he have two

certain conditions. He will come set some kind of template

certain conditions. He will come table and persuade them to sign up

certain conditions. He will come to it? On the first day, he should

certain conditions. He will come sit them down and say, I am going

certain conditions. He will come back tomorrow, give me a

certain conditions. He will come collectively agreed reason why I

certain conditions. He will come should borrow staying -- bother

staying. He says the first couple of should borrow staying -- bother

months are going to be information should borrow staying -- bother

gathering, is merely ideas. And he should borrow staying -- bother

would not rule out, although he said should borrow staying -- bother

he did not want to come in and set out his ideas, he would not rule out

he did not want to come in and set the notion that if some

he did not want to come in and set could not get consensus, he will put

he did not want to come in and set down his own best guess, maybe late

he did not want to come in and set November. Whether he tries to

he did not want to come in and set employees something or not, --

imposed something or not, the point employees something or not, --

is, we will only have an outcome employees something or not, --

were talking about if the parties employees something or not, --

locally by into it. Absolutely and they will buy into it. And they

locally by into it. Absolutely and will, on the Monday before the

signing of the Good Friday will, on the Monday before the

agreement, 85% of people did not think there would be a agreement on

agreement, 85% of people did not the Friday. I think we will be

agreement, 85% of people did not celebrating come Christmas. Thank

agreement, 85% of people did not you for that. Let's look at the

agreement, 85% of people did not political week gone by in 60

seconds. Connell McDevitt's resignation left

a resignation space in South broadcast, filled by Fergal

McKinney. I am overwhelmed, this is broadcast, filled by Fergal

a short sharp campaign, we were deeply saddened by the fact that

a short sharp campaign, we were Connell McDevitt 's left. I2 in the

a short sharp campaign, we were chamber, they were looking back to a

a short sharp campaign, we were long, hot summer. Countless attacks

a short sharp campaign, we were on police officers, countless, and

a short sharp campaign, we were what have we? Deafening silence.

a short sharp campaign, we were That is not going to the bottom of

a short sharp campaign, we were the barrel. That is going through

a short sharp campaign, we were the base of the barrel. And then to

a short sharp campaign, we were the sewer. Still who have -- still

have not got grips with shopping bags? The planned increase

have not got grips with shopping levy has been scrapped. And people

have not got grips with shopping were looking ahead to the arrival of

talks chairman Richard Haass. My were looking ahead to the arrival of

immediate reaction was, why would you bother coming back to Northern

Ireland? Simon Hamilton has stayed with me.

Ireland? There were big changes for him in

Ireland? the summer when he took over the

Ireland? most influential portfolio in the

executive. It might not be as glamorous as 11 Downing St, but this

department is the one with all of glamorous as 11 Downing St, but this

the power. The finance minister is storm and's

the power. equivalent to the Chancellor of the

the power. Exchequer. This is where they manage

the power. the budget, for £8 million per year.

They decide how much each department the budget, for £8 million per year.

will get. If the minister needs more the budget, for £8 million per year.

money, they have to ask and if they overspend, they have to explain

themselves. This all-powerful department controls the workings of

government both here at Stormont and department controls the workings of

further afield. He has charge of our department controls the workings of

huge civil service. Hands out department controls the workings of

millions of pounds in government department controls the workings of

contracts each year. Decide how much department controls the workings of

we pay inmates and runs the Stormont estate, even deciding who gets

parking payments. With the forecast estate, even deciding who gets

looking brighter on the economic estate, even deciding who gets

horizon, the focus of the department estate, even deciding who gets

is shifting. This summer we have seen house prices rise, business

is shifting. This summer we have activity rise, an increase in

is shifting. This summer we have shopping sales figures and a boost

is shifting. This summer we have in business confidence. Here at the

la -- the slightly more glamorous in business confidence. Here at the

Claire house, the challenge is how to get business growing again, banks

Claire house, the challenge is how lending and getting more people back

Claire house, the challenge is how into work.

Claire house, the challenge is how There are quite a few important

Claire house, the challenge is how issues in your intro, reforming the

public centre, protecting the block grants, what is top of your agenda?

The first priority of any finance grants, what is top of your agenda?

minister is ensuring you have the grants, what is top of your agenda?

money to do what people expect you grants, what is top of your agenda?

to do in terms of delivering grants, what is top of your agenda?

first-class services, health, education and housing. I put a

first-class services, health, personal focus which is a focus the

first-class services, health, whole executive needs to have, on

first-class services, health, driving forward and agenda of public

first-class services, health, sector reform. We have not maybe had

first-class services, health, as bad as the situation as havoc

spending, it has been tough. -- as bad as the situation as havoc

public spending. It will not get as bad as the situation as havoc

better in the next few years, and as bad as the situation as havoc

the public 's expectation gets bigger. We have got to work out more

the public 's expectation gets to do what's we have got -- we have

the public 's expectation gets got to work out how to do

the public 's expectation gets what we have got so we can solve

the public 's expectation gets some of these issues which are out

the public 's expectation gets there on health and education and so

the public 's expectation gets you want to innovate in the public

the public 's expectation gets centre and deliver services online,

the public 's expectation gets that means that people will lose

jobs. You would have expected that that means that people will lose

the headcount would have gone down that means that people will lose

in the civil service in the last few that means that people will lose

years because of the shrinking that means that people will lose

budget, but the number of people that means that people will lose

working in the civil service has not that means that people will lose

changed. I do not see that changing. It is about service is getting

changed. I do not see that changing. better for people, you mentioned

changed. I do not see that changing. digital delivery, we are using our

changed. I do not see that changing. phones and online to go shopping and

changed. I do not see that changing. go on holiday, I want to see us use

that much more for delivering go on holiday, I want to see us use

services in the public sector. You want to ensure good services, that

services in the public sector. You costs money, from higher taxes, will

services in the public sector. You you be setting out a case for why

services in the public sector. You people in Northern Ireland have two

services in the public sector. You accents they are paying for water?

Dashed have to accept? This has been accents they are paying for water?

covered, the money we are paying for accents they are paying for water?

water charges has to come out of the accents they are paying for water?

pocket of Northern Ireland. The accents they are paying for water?

economy is heading in the right accents they are paying for water?

direction, we do not want to see accents they are paying for water?

that sort of money coming out of accents they are paying for water?

public pockets. accents they are paying for water?

enough in taxes, you think we pay accents they are paying for water?

enough in rates for me and the accents they are paying for water?

executive is to be more issue accents they are paying for water?

shouldn't -- efficient in how we accents they are paying for water?

spend those money. It is about using accents they are paying for water?

what you have much better. If you accents they are paying for water?

think we have got wriggle room, that accents they are paying for water?

means that your predecessor by definition was not doing as much as

means that your predecessor by he could have done. We all owe him a

means that your predecessor by great debt of attitude, he took us

through the most challenging public expenditure situation in Northern

through the most challenging public Ireland since the 1930s. He did that

through the most challenging public with relative ease compared to some

through the most challenging public of the doom and gloom merchants who

through the most challenging public were predicting 25,000 job losses.

The challenge has changed, it is were predicting 25,000 job losses.

different less spending then we have were predicting 25,000 job losses.

before, and the challenge is now how were predicting 25,000 job losses.

to get more and how to reform and were predicting 25,000 job losses.

innovate in the public sector were predicting 25,000 job losses.

achieve those high expectations were predicting 25,000 job losses.

people have on us. Will you take a softer approach to the banks and

people have on us. Will you take a Sammy Wilson did? I am prepared to

tell the banks where I think they Sammy Wilson did? I am prepared to

could do more, where they have done Sammy Wilson did? I am prepared to

things they should not have done. It is incumbent on me to work in London

things they should not have done. It with our banks because we need them

things they should not have done. It to work and lend money to

businesses. The one thing which to work and lend money to

threatens the recovery is the to work and lend money to

inability of those who have good to work and lend money to

ideas in the business community it to work and lend money to

to get finance to grow. So it is to work and lend money to

carrot more than stick from your to work and lend money to

point of view? I do not have a lot to work and lend money to

of sticks, I don't have that power or authority in Northern Ireland. I

of sticks, I don't have that power can work with my counterparts in

of sticks, I don't have that power Westminster and I have already

of sticks, I don't have that power with them, to get our banks to do

of sticks, I don't have that power the job they are able to do. Sammy

of sticks, I don't have that power Wilson, he is a populist, are you a

of sticks, I don't have that power bit more of the dull technocrat? I

of sticks, I don't have that power would never seek to emulate the

of sticks, I don't have that power style of Sammy Wilson. There is only

of sticks, I don't have that power one Sammy Wilson, the mould was

of sticks, I don't have that power broken when they made him. I am my

own man. You might not see policy broken when they made him. I am my

changes, you might just see a broken when they made him. I am my

difference in style in some areas. What do you make of the challenges,

Simon Hamilton has a very influential role? I think the most

important thing for Simon will be to influential role? I think the most

articulated and explain to the board influential role? I think the most

of public for the state of the influential role? I think the most

public finances are, to have a influential role? I think the most

public address on the state of the influential role? I think the most

public finances so the public do not influential role? I think the most

what can and cannot be achieved influential role? I think the most

financially. The other big political story, the SDLP replacing, McDevitt

with Fergal McKinney and not Claire Hanna. No one saw that happening. It

was a blow for McDevitt, he was high performing. But now Fergal is the

was a blow for McDevitt, he was high second UTV guy to come in, and it is

probably down to the BBC guy! I do more than pay is going up. Which

deserves a programme all to itself. more than pay is going up. Which

In a moment, more from our political panel, but first the news.

Good afternoon. Nick Clegg says victory for either the Conservatives

Good afternoon. Nick Clegg says or labour at the next election would

Good afternoon. Nick Clegg says put at risk the economic recovery

is. Speaking in Glasgow at the Liberal Democrat annual conference,

he said a coalition would allow his Liberal Democrat annual conference,

party to balance politics and enable the government to finish the job of

repairing the economy fairly. It is my genuine belief that if we go back

to the bad old days, not of coalition and Islands politics, but

to the bad old days, not of of either the left or right

dominating blood on their own, you will get a recovery which is neither

dominating blood on their own, you fair nor sustainable. Labour would

wreck the recovery, and under the fair nor sustainable. Labour would

Conservatives, who don't have the fair nor sustainable. Labour would

same commitment to fairness as ours, you would get the wrong kind

of recovery. Two 19-year-old woman arrested after

a stabbing on Thursday have been released without charge. Police are

trying to discover if there is a link between the killing and a fire

four hours later in which four members of the same family died.

Five people are being questioned in members of the same family died.

connection with that blaze. A Syrian government minister has described

the agreement drawn up by America and Russia to dispose of his

country's chemical weapons as a victory.

The minister claims the deals helps the Syrians out of a crisis and

others war. The US Secretary of the Syrians out of a crisis and

State John Kerry is in Israel to brief the prime minister, Benjamin

Netanyahu, on the proposal. China and France have also welcomed the

deal, which says Syria has until Friday to submit a competence of

list of its chemical stockpile. Britain's Mo Farah has missed out on

winning his first half marathon by around one second.

He was taking part in the Great North Run between Newcastle and

South Shields. Farrar, who was the favourite following his two gold

medals at the athletics World Championships, lost out to

medals at the athletics World Ethiopian's can mean many Serb --

Kenenisa Bekele in a sprint finish. A carnival atmosphere for the start

of the 33rd Great North Run. Thousands limbered up. For some, it

was about the challenge. For others, simply dressing up for fun. I am

was about the challenge. For others, walking it, so I have no time in

mind. I just want to enjoy it and appreciate the crowds and have a

mind. I just want to enjoy it and fantastic time. For elite athletes,

today's race was about who would be first over the line. Despite the

wind and rain, large crowds turned out for the world's most popular

half marathon, which attracts some of the finest women runners, two,

including the Kenyan. There were high hopes for Britain's double

Olympic champion Mo Farah, but after a long sprint finish in South

Shields, he was narrowly beaten Ethiopian's Kenenisa Bekele. It was

a great race and a great finish. I thought the pace was ridiculous. I

thought I would come back and close the gap slowly. I managed to close

it a little bit, but you can't take away what he has. Wheelchair athlete

it a little bit, but you can't take David Weir won his race for a fourth

time. More than £200 million has been raised since the Great North

Run began in 1981. That is it for now. There will be

more news on BBC One at 6:35pm. So, did anything happen while we

were away this summer? I thought not. Whereas British politics

heading now? Who better to answer than the best political panel we

could cobble together for a tenner? Even then, they are overpaid.

Putting foreign affairs to one side for a moment, it seems that what

happened mystically was that it became more apparent that some sort

of recovery was underway at last, and that Mr Miliband still has not

yet resonated with the British public. These things are a problem

for Labour. Ed Miliband's mistake over the summer holiday was to take

a summer holiday. And it looked like the rest of the Labour Party had

taken one too. They were not finding issues they could make their own.

The only person who made an impact issues they could make their own.

was Stella Creasy on online abuse. That is a huge problem, and it is

partly down to the fact that there is this intense message discipline.

They don't want to say anything out of line until they have got all

their ducks in a row. It makes the party do at the moment. The terms of

trade have swung in David Cameron's favour, but the political rhetoric

is still with Mr Miliband. Let's look at this headline from the

is still with Mr Miliband. Let's Sunday Telegraph. That headline

might not be right, but the story is Sunday Telegraph. That headline

significant in that Mr Cameron is still in danger on his right flank

significant in that Mr Cameron is from UKIP, and Mr Miliband still

significant in that Mr Cameron is doesn't need an enormous share of

the vote to get an overall majority? There is a danger here of

the vote to get an overall majority? Westminster group think. Of course

Ed Miliband is in trouble. The Tories are reserved and. They are

better organised, the economy is Tories are reserved and. They are

recovering. That poses difficulties for Labour, but if you look at what

is happening on the ground, UKIP still pose a danger to Cameron. They

don't need to poll 15% in a lot of those marginal seats, they just need

to get five or 6% of the vote, and that could potentially destroy the

Tory lead. Lots of commentators like to say, this guy will never be prime

minister, but it is possible that by default or by accident, in a very

fluid electoral situation, Ed Miliband could end up as prime

minister. It is still all to play for on both sides. If UKIP remains a

threat to the Tory right flank and the Tories themselves are not really

a national party any more, I am told they will only target a few seats in

Scotland, they don't get any big seats in the big cities of the north

any more, they don't get the Ulster vote they used to get, so it is

possible that Labour, which is more nationally based and has seats in

the Midlands and the north and in Wales, so they could get in. I

agree. The advantage of having a bad summer is that Ed Miliband can go to

his conference facing low summer is that Ed Miliband can go to

expectations. All he has to do is not dribble on the lectern, and it

will be written up as spectacular. not dribble on the lectern, and it

He might not even use a lectin. Structurally, he is in a good

position. The electoral vagaries of the system work in his favour. He

still has a narrow poll lead, he is not out of the game at all. Of the

three main party leaders, the only one who can be confident about being

three main party leaders, the only in government after 2015 is Nick

Clegg. David Cameron faces a difficult structural position

electorally. But if it is this bad for Labour at the moment, what will

it be like if this recovery turns out to be real? It depends how much

they succeed. Chuka Umunna was shifting the debate are living

standards. They don't want to keep arguing about who called it right.

Do people feel richer than they were in 2010? The data suggests that

people don't feel richer than in 2010. Because they are not.That is

the basis on which Labour will fight the next election. It is clear that

Labour are unclear on what to say or do next. They have just got to hope

and pray that the economy is not as soundly based as it appears to be

and that George Osborne is Tony Barber, who thought he fixed the

economy in the 1970s and hadn't, just before the next crash. There

are all sorts of uncertainties - China, the bond market, the housing

bubble might be blown up, and Labour just had to hope something goes

wrong for Osborne. Chuka Umunna said he would not get rid of help to buy.

There are all these criticisms about he would not get rid of help to buy.

artificial schemes pumping up house prices, but he would not say that.

It is tortuous. You see this again and again. When asked if Labour

would repeal the bedroom tax, or the same thing with Royal Mail, it

happens again. They will be falling on people who have not had a meal in

years because there is so little on people who have not had a meal in

coming out of the Labour Party. There is a kind and Gillette in with

them to a politician's career. When they are under attack for a long

time, the media get bored after a while and switch the story. It

happened to Osborne, who had a while and switch the story. It

horrific 2012 and has recovered this year. It will probably happen to Ed

Miliband. He can't keep getting as bad press as he is getting at the

moment, because people find it tedious. Syria has been the big

foreign-policy event this summer. It has remarkably led to a Soviet-

foreign-policy event this summer. It American initiative to get Syria to

give up its chemical weapons. The world will now expect the Assad

regime to live up to its public commitments. As I said at the outset

of these negotiations, there can be no games, no room for avoidance or

anything less than full compliance. John Kerry. Is this too good to be

true? Even superficially, it is not very good. The only people who

emerge with any sense of triumph are the Russians, who have had their

emerge with any sense of triumph are biggest diplomatic coup. They are

back on the stage again. B if you biggest diplomatic coup. They are

want to know why Putin even has a biggest diplomatic coup. They are

constituency in Russia, it is because of moments like this. They

were humiliated after the end of the Cold War, and a Nou Camp is a great

were humiliated after the end of the power again. Then you have the Obama

situation, because he has ended up where he wanted to end up. He has

situation, because he has ended up avoided war and extracted a

concession from Syria, but the way he got there was so embarrassing. It

concession from Syria, but the way made him look weak and erratic as a

concession from Syria, but the way leader. There were contradictions

between himself and his Secretary of State last week, and it has not done

him any good. I was in the States, and it was open season on him. I

have never understood the idea of chemical weapons as a red line when

you can massacre people in their thousands through other means. But

you can massacre people in their everybody seems to agree that

chemical weapons are beyond the pale. The rebels are miserable. We

have run out of time. I will have to ask you what you think about Syria

next week, which gives you time to prepare. Your book on Fred the shred

is going well? It is.I am back tomorrow at noon with the Daily

is going well? It is.I am back Politics at noon on BBC Two, where

we will have more from the Liberal Politics at noon on BBC Two, where

Democrat conference in Glasgow. It is the start of our Daily Politics

conference coverage. Next week, we is the start of our Daily Politics

will be back here at our normal time of 11am, when we will be joined by

the Conservative Party chairman, Grant Shapps. Remember, if it is

Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.