16/02/2014 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


16/02/2014

The latest political news, interviews and debate in Northern Ireland.


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Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be

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extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent

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Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the

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European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant

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development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has

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the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow

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joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election

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Here, the education minister says no Another by-election and

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Here, the education minister says no school will lose money under his

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funding plans based on free school meals.

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With me, the best and brightest political panel in the business. The

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twits will be as incessant and probably as welcome as the recent

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rain. A significant new development in the debate over Scottish

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independence this morning, the President of the European

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Commission, President Jose Manuel Barroso, has confirmed what the

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Nationalists have long denied, that an independent Scotland would have

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to reply to join the European Union as a new member, that it would

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require the agreement of all 28 member states and that would be, in

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his words, extremely difficult, if not impossible. In case there is a

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new country, a new state coming out of a current member state, it will

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have to apply and, this is very important, the application to the

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union would have to be approved by all of the other member states.

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Countries like Spain, with the secessionist issues they have? I

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don't want to interfere in your democratic discussion here, but of

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course, it will be extremely difficult to get the approval of all

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of the other member states, to have a new member coming in from one

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member state. We have seen that that Spain has been opposing even the

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recognition, for instance, so it is a similar state. It is a new

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country. I believe it is great to be externally difficult, if not

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impossible. Well, he says he doesn't want to interfere, but he has just

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dropped a medium-sized explosive into the debate on Scottish

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independence? A huge story. Alex Salmond must be wondering what is

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going to go wrong next. His pitch to the Scottish people is based on two

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things, the currency union with England and the rest of the United

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Kingdom, which was blown apart last week, and this morning, his claims

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that Scotland would automatically get into the European Union has been

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dynamited. He's not only saying that they would have to apply, it is also

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saying it might be impossible to get the agreement of all 28 members to

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allow Scotland in. That's even more significant than the application?

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The reference to Spain is interesting, we talk about Catalan

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independence, an economic and active area that Spain does not want to be

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independent. About five other countries are blocking Kosovo's

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accession to the EU. There is no reason they would want to encourage

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the secessionist in their country by letting Scotland do the same. If

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Scotland does have to apply, and it does get in, it solves the currency

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problem because all new members have to accept the Euro? At the moment,

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the SNP are rejecting that quite strongly. What an interesting

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intervention today. However, I know that those arguing that Scotland

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should stay in the union are worried that the polls are tightening. A lot

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of these interventions, parents care arguments, they don't look like they

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are convincing the Scottish people. We haven't had any polls yet? We

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haven't, but we have since the currency debate was reignited in the

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last few weeks and it shows the polls tightening slightly. I think

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Alistair Darling's campaign would prefer to be much further ahead at

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the stage. They are worried that these technical commandments are not

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having much sway. Are the polls tightening slightly? They could be

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within the statistical margin for error. They are, but not much. Alex

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Salmond's main page is one of reassurance. He wants to say you can

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vote for independence, a pound in the pocket will be the same as

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before and you will still be a member of the European Union. In the

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last three or four matter days, both of those claims have been blown

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apart. Angus MacNeil has already told BBC Radio 5 Live that the

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remarks are nonsense and he is playing more politics. We hope to

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speak to the SNP's finance minister, John Swinney, a little bit later in

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the programme. It is not just the constant rain that London commuters

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have had to deal with. There was also a strike on the tube that

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disrupted the travel of millions. A second stoppage was on the cards,

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but it was called off at the last minute.

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The leader of the biggest underground workers union, the RMT,

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is Bob Crow, who has led his members into 24 strikes on the tube since

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2005, as well as disputes on the national rail network. Under his

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leadership, the union's membership has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to

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more than 80,000, at a time when union membership overall has been

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shrinking. The current dispute has seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris

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Johnson over the mayor's plans to close tube station ticket offices.

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The 48-hour stoppage at the beginning of this month is estimated

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to have cost the London economy ?100 million. The two sides have agreed a

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truce, for now, but Mr Crow has threatened further action if the

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mayor imposes his changes. Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday

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interview. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You

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have suspended the strike for the moment. What will it take to call it

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off entirely? Want to know first of all wider booking office has to

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close. The Mayor of London made it quite clear in his election

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programme that the booking offices would remain open. It was strange,

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really, because Ken Livingstone wanted to close them down and the

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mayor thought it was popular to keep them open and put in his campaign to

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keep them open. However, we have not the news figures. We are being told

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only 3% of people use the booking offices. That's not true. In

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research done, if somebody does to a booking office with somebody sitting

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there and asks for a ticket of less than ?5, they are not allowed to

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sell them a ticket, it is madness. Do you use the ticket office? When

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it is open, yes. You said to ITV that he didn't. I don't know what I

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said to ITV, I don't know what time people use them, sometimes they are

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open and sometimes they are closed. People make out that these ticket

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office staff are people that sit behind barriers like a newsagent.

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I'm not knocking a newsagent, however, these people were the same

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people treated like Lions when they were helping people named in the

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terrorist incidents, taking them out of the panels. Suddenly they are

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lazy people that sit in ticket offices. My understanding is that

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the people would come from behind and be out and about now. It is the

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management wants to run the underground without ticket offices,

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isn't that their prerogative? They are paid to manage, not you, not

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your members, they are the managers? Managers are there to manage, and we

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want good managers. But we've got some really bad managers that are

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not looking at the railway as a whole. This is a successful

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industry, not an industry in decline, one of the most successful

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in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million people a day. All of the forecast is

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or it will move to 3.6 million per day. The mayor wants to run services

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on a Friday and Saturday night. We are not opposed to that. However, it

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does not make sense that if more people are going to be using the

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tube on Friday and Saturday, coming home at two o'clock three o'clock in

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the morning, a lot of people drinking, a lot of people not

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dragging, why take 1000 people of the network that come to the aid of

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people that are looking to people? I want to show you this picture. This

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is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I think it is. I was trying to copy

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you. You deserve this break because you have done a fantastic job for

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your members. Yes, I don't see what that has got to do with it. Let's

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get every editor of the daily newspapers and see where they go on

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their holidays, I would like to know. What I choose to do... I'm not

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attacking you for doing that... You've got a picture up there, I've

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got to say, why don't they go and follow Boris Johnson when he was

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away on holiday, when the riots were taking place in London, and he

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refused to come back? Why don't they go and view the editors of

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newspapers, where they go on holiday? Why do they look at you

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when you go on holiday? They sometimes do, actually. The basic

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pay of a tube driver will soon be ?52,000. Ticket office workers are

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already earning over ?35,000. Never mind a holiday on Copacabana beach,

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or membership by your house for what you have done for them? When you

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look at the papers this morning, I see that Wayne Rooney is going to

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get a ?70 million deal over the next four deals. I see NHS doctors are

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getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot of people that do a lot of people

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that, in my opinion, don't do anything for society. The top paid

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people in this country should be doctors and nurses. Unfortunately,

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we live in a jungle. If you are not strong, the bosses will walk all

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over you. The reason why we got good terms and conditions is because we

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fought for them. The reality is, all of these three political parties,

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liberals, Tories and Labour, they have all put no programme that to

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defend working people. So we have to do it on our own. And that is why

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you have done such a great job for your members and why union

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membership has been rising, people want to be part of a successful

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operation. But it has come at a cost for less well-paid workers, who

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travel on the cheap? If everyone believes if London Underground tube

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workers take a pay freeze they are going to redistribute the money to

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the rest of the workers that work on the cheap... But the people that

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travel on the tube, let's look at some of them, they are the ones that

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suffer from your strike action. The starting salary of a cheap driver

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now, ?48,000. The starting salary for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22,000

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for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a teacher starting out. As your

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members have spread, they have had to live through 24 strikes in 13

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years to push up your members wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The

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have put a pay freeze on by conservatives and liberals. The

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police constables, so have the teachers. We have had the ability to

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go and fight. The reality is, at the end of the day, as I have said

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before, no one is going to put up the cause for workers. Not one

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single party in parliament are fighting the cause for workers. They

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all support privatisation, they all support keeping the anti-trade union

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laws, they all support illegal wars around the world. Unless they have a

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fighting trade union, our members pay would be as low as some others.

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You said we could not care less if we have 1 million strikes. But these

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people, the lower paid people who travel on the tube, who need it as

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an essential service, they care. Of course they care, I've said before

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that I apologise to the troubling public for the dispute that took

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place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It two to tango. If the boy never

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imposed terms and conditions on us against our will... But you've got

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great terms and conditions! But it's a constant battle, they are trying

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to change them. Drivers are having their pay going up to ?50,000. You

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said they are making it worse, it is going up. They are trying to make

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things worse for workers. You said at the start of the interview that

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the tube strike cost ?100 million in two days. It means that when members

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go to work for two days it is worth ?100 million. That demonstrates what

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they are worth. Only a fighting trade union can defend workers out

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there. Your members should enjoy what you have got for them, because

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it's not going to last, is it? Technology will change the whole way

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your business operates. As Karl Marx says, you said I was a mixture of

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Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and the Sopranos. I thought that was

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quite funny... The Karl Marx part of it, the only thing that is constant

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is change. We have been crying out for new technology. But for who? To

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put people on the dole, so they can't do anything and do anything

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for society, or technology so everybody benefits, lower fares,

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better service and better terms and conditions for the workers. But you

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have made Labour so expensive on the underground that management now has

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a huge incentive to substitute technology for Labour. And that's

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what it's going to do, it is closing the ticket offices and very soon,

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starting in 2016, the driverless trains coming. What I am saying is

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that your members should enjoy this because it's not going to last.

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Driverless trains are not coming in, it is not safe. We have them in

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Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it is not safe? These are new lines

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that have been built so that when it breaks down, people can get out of

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the tunnel. Would you want to be stuck on a summers day on the

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Northern line? A pregnant woman who cannot get off the train? Absolute

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panic that takes place, the reality is simple, it is a nonsense. It's

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not going to happen because it is a Victorian network. On Docklands

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railway for example it is driverless but when the train breaks down, it

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is above ground on a very small section. All of these other cities

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managed to have it. You remind me about Henry Ford in the 1930s when

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he said, you see that robot over their, he cannot buy a car. All

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sorts of new jobs are being created all the time in other areas. Come

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back to the ticket offices, not many people use the ticket offices any

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more, what is wrong with getting the stuff out of the ticket office on to

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the concourses, meeting and greeting, helping disabled people

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and tourists and making it a better service? They can do more on the

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concourse than they can in the ticket office. Andrew, he took the

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decision to close down every single ticket office. You cannot compare

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for example Chesham with the likes of Heathrow. Are you telling me

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people are going to be on a long transatlantic flight, arrived at

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Heathrow and cannot get a ticket. The stuff will be redeployed on the

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concourse. The simple problem is that it is not just about the

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booking office, it is about people having a visual. If you are

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partially sighted, you cannot use the machines. If British is not your

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first language, you cannot use the offices. How many languages do your

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members speak? I don't know, I struggle with English. The machines

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can speak many different languages. They are dehumanising things. You

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phone the bank, all you hear is, press one for this, two for that.

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People want to hear it human being and what makes the London

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Underground so precious is that people want to see people. Having

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well-dressed, motivated people out on the concourse, what part of that

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don't you like? They will be on the concourse and they will have

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machines. The fact is that London Underground did a risk assessment of

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closing down their booking offices and it is clear that if you are

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disabled, if you are partially sighted, London Underground becomes

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more dangerous. You are posing the closing of ticket offices, opposing

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driverless trains, when you opposed to the Oyster card when it came in?

:18:49.:19:00.

No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal with it. It is not the only way.

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They should supplement the staff and the job. If more people used the

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London Underground system, you want more staff to deal with them. Let's

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look at your mandate to strike. Of your members who work on the Tube,

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only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30% voted for the strike, so 70%

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actually didn't vote to strike of your members, but the strike went

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ahead. Isn't it right to have a higher threshold before you can

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cause this disruption? It would be lovely if everyone voted but the

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Tories took that away. We used to have ballots at the workplace. What

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I'm trying to say to you is that we used to have a ballot box at the

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workplace and the turnouts were higher. The Tories believe that if

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they can have a secret ballot where ballot papers went to people's home

:20:10.:20:15.

addresses, where they could be persuaded by the bosses, votes would

:20:16.:20:19.

be different. Let's go back to the workplace ballot because you get a

:20:20.:20:27.

bigger turnout. Will the RMT re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I

:20:28.:20:31.

have no intention to. We got expelled from the Labour Party. But

:20:32.:20:40.

you will give some money to the Labour councils? Those that support

:20:41.:20:48.

our basic policies get money, we don't give money directly to MPs, we

:20:49.:20:55.

give it to constituencies. Are you going to stand for re-election in

:20:56.:21:04.

2016? I might do, I might not. You haven't decided yet? No, but more

:21:05.:21:09.

than likely I will do. And will you stand again as an anti-EU candidate?

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Yes, I am standing in London, and right across, completely different

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to UKIP's policies. They are anti-European, they believe all of

:21:25.:21:28.

the faults of Europe are down to the immigrants. We are anti-European

:21:29.:21:35.

Union. If London Underground is as badly run as you think, why don't

:21:36.:21:41.

you run for mayor? That is down the road, it has not come up yet. I'm

:21:42.:21:47.

not ruling anything out. I'm not ruling out getting your job on the

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Sunday Politics. You have got to retire as well, you have got to put

:21:55.:22:00.

your feet up. I will get you to renegotiate my package. Shall we go

:22:01.:22:05.

on strike first? If I could have your wages, I would have two trips

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to Rio every year. Good luck. And if you're in the London region they'll

:22:19.:22:22.

have more on the Tube strike later in the programme. Let's get back to

:22:23.:22:28.

those comments from Jose Manuel Barroso, and reaction to these

:22:29.:22:37.

comments from John Swinney. Scottish Nationalists denied all along you

:22:38.:22:43.

would have to reapply, we have now heard it without any caveats, you

:22:44.:22:49.

will and you might not get in. I think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments

:22:50.:22:56.

were preposterous this morning. He compared the situation to the one in

:22:57.:23:02.

Kosovo. Britain is the member, Scotland is not the member. If you

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go independent, you will have to reapply, he says. All of the

:23:08.:23:13.

arrangements we have in place are compatible with the workings of the

:23:14.:23:16.

European Union because we have been part of it for 40 years. The

:23:17.:23:20.

propositions we put forward work about essentially negotiating the

:23:21.:23:27.

continuity of Scotland's membership of the European Union and that

:23:28.:23:33.

position has now been explained and debated and discussed and reinforced

:23:34.:23:46.

by comments made by experts. We are talking about the president of the

:23:47.:23:49.

European commission and we have spoken to him since he gave that

:23:50.:23:54.

interview on the BBC this morning, it was an intervention that he made

:23:55.:23:58.

that he wanted to lay out that Scotland should be in no doubt that

:23:59.:24:06.

if they vote for independence they will have to apply for European

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membership and they may not get it if it is vetoed by other members.

:24:15.:24:20.

What he didn't say is that no state of the European Union have indicated

:24:21.:24:25.

they would veto Scottish membership. The Spanish foreign

:24:26.:24:31.

minister has. They have said that if there is an agreed process within

:24:32.:24:36.

the UK that Scotland becomes an independent country, then Spain has

:24:37.:24:39.

got nothing to say about the issue. That indicates to me clearly that

:24:40.:24:43.

the Spanish government will have no stance to take on the Scottish

:24:44.:24:49.

membership of the European Union because it is important that

:24:50.:24:52.

Scotland is already part of the European Union, our laws are

:24:53.:24:57.

compatible with the European Union and we play our part. The only

:24:58.:25:01.

threat to Scotland's participation in the European Union is the

:25:02.:25:10.

potential in/out referendum that David Cameron wants to have in 2017.

:25:11.:25:18.

It has not been a great week for you, has it? Everything you seem to

:25:19.:25:23.

want, the monetary union, that has been blown out of the water by the

:25:24.:25:29.

Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel Barroso has said you will have to

:25:30.:25:35.

reapply to the European Union, it has not been a good week. You will

:25:36.:25:40.

follow the debate closely, and the Sunday newspapers are full about the

:25:41.:25:45.

backlash taking place within Scotland at the bullying remarks of

:25:46.:25:53.

the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well

:25:54.:25:59.

now? He is making an indirect comparison between Scotland and

:26:00.:26:05.

Kosovo. If you vote for independence and you do have two apply again to

:26:06.:26:11.

join, if you do get in it solves your currency problem because you

:26:12.:26:17.

will have to accept the euro. We have set out an option on the

:26:18.:26:20.

currency arrangements which would be to establish the currency union. You

:26:21.:26:30.

would have to adopt the euro. That's not rate because you have to be part

:26:31.:26:36.

of the exchange-rate mechanism for two years before you can apply for

:26:37.:26:40.

membership and an independent Scotland has no intention of signing

:26:41.:26:45.

up to the exchange rate mechanism or the single currency. We are

:26:46.:26:50.

concentrating on setting out our arguments for maintaining the pound

:26:51.:26:54.

sterling, which is in the interests of Scotland and the UK. Thank you

:26:55.:27:02.

for joining us this morning. This week's least surprising news

:27:03.:27:06.

was that Labour won the safe seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East in a

:27:07.:27:08.

by-election, following the death of the MP Paul Goggins. With the result

:27:09.:27:12.

so predictable, all eyes were on whether this would be the sixth time

:27:13.:27:15.

this parliament that UKIP would come second. And whether they'd chip away

:27:16.:27:18.

at Labour's vote, not just the Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed

:27:19.:27:22.

up all night to find out what it all meant. Forget the hype. Forget the

:27:23.:27:32.

theorising. And yes - everyone has a theory. UKIP are learning from us.

:27:33.:27:44.

What have they picked up from you? To be silly. Thanks to this week's

:27:45.:27:49.

by-election we've got some hard evidence in paper form that helps

:27:50.:27:52.

answer the question: How are UKIP doing? Turns out the answer is well,

:27:53.:27:59.

but not well enough to beat Labour. I'm therefore claim -- declare that

:28:00.:28:09.

Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have come second and increased their

:28:10.:28:11.

share of the vote quite significantly. But their performance

:28:12.:28:14.

isn't as good as their performances in some of the other by-elections

:28:15.:28:17.

this parliament. Just don't suggest to them that their bandwagon has

:28:18.:28:25.

ground to a halt. A week ago you'd told me you were going to win, what

:28:26.:28:33.

happened? No, I didn't, I said I wanted to win. My mistake. How are

:28:34.:28:41.

you feeling? It is a Labour stronghold, we always knew it was

:28:42.:28:46.

going to be a fight. Labour were running scared of letting us present

:28:47.:28:51.

our arguments. UKIP's campaign in Wythenshawe didn't point to the

:28:52.:28:54.

right but to the left, with leaflets that branded Labour as a party of

:28:55.:28:57.

millionaires who didn't care about the working class. It wasn't a

:28:58.:29:01.

winning strategy but it did help them beat the Tories who focused on

:29:02.:29:07.

dog mess and potholes instead. Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford

:29:08.:29:09.

from Manchester Uni thinks they could be on the right track. He's

:29:10.:29:15.

analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP voters for a new book, which could

:29:16.:29:18.

confound the received wisdom about the party. The common media image of

:29:19.:29:30.

the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy faced golf club and -- member from

:29:31.:29:39.

the south-east of the UK and many UKIP activists do resemble that

:29:40.:29:43.

stereotype to some extent, they do pick up a lot of activists from the

:29:44.:29:48.

Conservative party, but UKIP voters are older, more working class, more

:29:49.:29:53.

likely to live in Northern, urban areas, and they are much more

:29:54.:29:58.

anti-system than anti-EU. And they're precisely the voters that

:29:59.:30:01.

the Tory MP David Mowat needs if he's to hold on to his narrow

:30:02.:30:04.

majority in the constituency just down the road. Do you have a UKIP

:30:05.:30:18.

strategy in your seat? Our UKIP strategy is to point out that if

:30:19.:30:21.

they want a referendum on if they want to be in the EU or not, there

:30:22.:30:25.

is one way to get it, for the Conservatives to form their next

:30:26.:30:28.

government and for me to be their MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy

:30:29.:30:34.

what they want? I'm not sure it will be accidental. People need to

:30:35.:30:40.

realise that if Ed Miliband is the Prime Minister, there will be no

:30:41.:30:45.

referendum on the EU and UKIP may have made their point but they would

:30:46.:30:51.

not have got their referendum. Over at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up

:30:52.:31:00.

time. Not helping, Nigel? I had major surgery on the 19th of

:31:01.:31:04.

November and I am still weak as a kitten. I can barely lift a pint

:31:05.:31:08.

with my right hand, it is as serious as that. The answer is, Carreon,

:31:09.:31:12.

chaps, you're all doing a very good job. There will be carrying on to

:31:13.:31:16.

the European elections in May, which will provide more evidence of if the

:31:17.:31:21.

UKIP and wagon is powering on or if it is just parked. -- bandwagon.

:31:22.:31:27.

With me now is the Conservative MEP Vicky fraud and UKIP director of

:31:28.:31:31.

medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He will also be a candidate in the

:31:32.:31:35.

upcoming European elections. You came second in Manchester, but it

:31:36.:31:38.

was not a close second. -- Vicky Ford. There is nothing that is a

:31:39.:31:46.

game changer? I think it is very unusual for any insurgent party,

:31:47.:31:51.

like the liberals used to be, to actually win a safe seat of the

:31:52.:31:57.

opposition. Those shocks, going back to Walkington etc, it tended to be

:31:58.:32:04.

winning seats against an unpopular government. We did extraordinarily

:32:05.:32:10.

well in Wythenshawe. Labour compressed the campaign down to the

:32:11.:32:13.

shortest possible time and maxed out the postal vote. Whatever we think

:32:14.:32:16.

about Labour, they do have an efficient machine, lots of union

:32:17.:32:20.

activists signed a lot of people with a lot of know-how. It pushed

:32:21.:32:27.

you into third place and showed the increasing irrelevance of the Tories

:32:28.:32:32.

in the North? Tory minded voters in the North Sea more inclined to vote

:32:33.:32:37.

for UKIP than you? I think by-elections are by-elections. The

:32:38.:32:41.

same day, we took a seat from Labour in Birmingham. Well, that was a

:32:42.:32:46.

by-election as well, so we should discount that as well. You should

:32:47.:32:49.

learn from them, and we need to look forward to the elections in 2014.

:32:50.:32:54.

That is in May this year, when we have a chance to really grab this

:32:55.:33:01.

change in Europe, grab this change that we were talking about just now.

:33:02.:33:06.

You don't worry, particularly in the north, if people want to vote

:33:07.:33:08.

against Labour your supporters are drifting to UKIP? I think people

:33:09.:33:14.

vote UKIP in a European election and they have done that for many years.

:33:15.:33:17.

They vote that because they want change. The problem is, Patrick's

:33:18.:33:22.

party have had MEPs since 1999 and they cannot deliver that change.

:33:23.:33:27.

They can't because they don't have seats in Westminster. It was on that

:33:28.:33:33.

video, the only way we are going to get the change we want in Europe is

:33:34.:33:37.

to have that referendum and have the renegotiation, and that means vote

:33:38.:33:44.

Tory. What do you say to that? Let's get real, the Conservative Party has

:33:45.:33:49.

not won a Parliamentary majority in 22 years. But the only way you will

:33:50.:33:54.

get a referendum, if that is what motivates you, and with UKIP it is,

:33:55.:33:58.

the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if

:33:59.:34:02.

there is a majority Conservative government at the next election. And

:34:03.:34:05.

you could well stop that from happening? I don't accept that. I

:34:06.:34:11.

believe, just as we forced David Cameron and into a referendum pledge

:34:12.:34:14.

he explicitly ruled out making before through our success, and I

:34:15.:34:18.

was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not

:34:19.:34:21.

be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our

:34:22.:34:24.

electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the

:34:25.:34:29.

European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against

:34:30.:34:33.

his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in

:34:34.:34:36.

the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had

:34:37.:34:42.

the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.

:34:43.:34:48.

The only way you are going to get a renegotiation, a change in our

:34:49.:34:52.

relationship with Europe and an in or out referendum is to have a

:34:53.:34:55.

Conservative Government. Please, UKIP, stop pretending that you can

:34:56.:34:58.

deliver, because you don't deliver and you don't... We have delivered,

:34:59.:35:05.

we forced David Cameron to give a pledge for a referendum he didn't

:35:06.:35:11.

want to make. We will know if you are right about Ed Miliband or not,

:35:12.:35:14.

you will have to tell us going into the campaign. If you are wrong, what

:35:15.:35:20.

do you do then? There are still loads of reasons for people to vote

:35:21.:35:24.

UKIP. A referendum is one thing. David Cameron, and I asked him

:35:25.:35:30.

directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath

:35:31.:35:36.

of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed

:35:37.:35:40.

Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably

:35:41.:35:44.

maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has

:35:45.:35:49.

been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential

:35:50.:35:53.

for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those

:35:54.:35:58.

disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming

:35:59.:36:02.

towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We

:36:03.:36:07.

want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people

:36:08.:36:11.

who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.

:36:12.:36:14.

That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.

:36:15.:36:23.

UKIP MEPs do not turn up to defenders. If President Hollande is

:36:24.:36:30.

as good as his word and says there will be no substantial

:36:31.:36:32.

renegotiation, certainly no treaty change this side of 2017 when he is

:36:33.:36:37.

up for the election, what do you do then? He is a French Socialist Prime

:36:38.:36:43.

Minister, I don't expect him to agree. But you can't bring anything

:36:44.:36:48.

of substance back with these negotiations. Then people will vote

:36:49.:36:56.

to leave. The Prime Minister has been very clear that British public

:36:57.:37:02.

opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a

:37:03.:37:06.

renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what

:37:07.:37:11.

we get with the deal on the table in 2017. If the status quo was what we

:37:12.:37:15.

have today, I would vote to leave. But I want to renegotiate. We will

:37:16.:37:23.

have to move on. For those viewers lucky enough to live in the East of

:37:24.:37:26.

England, they will be seeing more of Patrick in a moment. You are

:37:27.:37:30.

watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be

:37:31.:37:34.

talking about, what else, the weather,

:37:35.:37:35.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics. The Education Minister has

:37:36.:37:50.

moved to calm nerves over the Common Funding Formula - no school will

:37:51.:37:54.

lose money says John O'Dowd. So what exactly are his plans? Plus, a war

:37:55.:37:58.

of words over a proposed re-organisation to the Irish

:37:59.:38:06.

language sector here. This is about demoting the language and providing

:38:07.:38:09.

better services in a more efficient way to the Irish language community.

:38:10.:38:14.

-- promoting the language. And with their thoughts, PR consultant Sheila

:38:15.:38:19.

Davidson and commentator Orna Young. But first, the health of our

:38:20.:38:22.

emergency departments has dominated the news all week - much of the

:38:23.:38:25.

focus on Belfast's Royal Victoria Hospital. A BBC Spotlight programme

:38:26.:38:31.

revealed a number of deaths had been partly due to delays there. Here's

:38:32.:38:36.

what a former doctor at the Royal's emergency department told me on

:38:37.:38:42.

Thursday night's The View. Did you feel that the concerns that you and

:38:43.:38:45.

others raised were taken as seriously as they should have? No,

:38:46.:38:52.

and I think that is evidenced by the fact that those concerns had to be

:38:53.:39:01.

used on repeated occasions. I don't think they ever were adequately

:39:02.:39:06.

addressed. What the public see in all of this are dramatic headlines,

:39:07.:39:09.

and they hear from and see overworked medical staff working for

:39:10.:39:14.

well-paid managers who look as if they are asleep at the wheel. I

:39:15.:39:20.

understand that and understand how that conclusion can be drawn, but I

:39:21.:39:23.

would say to you that everybody who works in health and social care

:39:24.:39:27.

gives of their best to deliver the best health and social care. Let's

:39:28.:39:31.

hear from my guests Sheila Davidson and Orna Young. Sheila, I assume

:39:32.:39:38.

that you followed the story closely last week. What did you make of the

:39:39.:39:44.

revelations and the way in which the Minister has tried to deal with this

:39:45.:39:48.

situation? I think we all understand that the NHS is a monolith that is

:39:49.:39:53.

very difficult to manage and fund and to get the best out of. That

:39:54.:40:00.

said, what is happening in A seems to be the thin end of the wedge. We

:40:01.:40:04.

have been biggest drug sector and event of the NHS and GPs, they have

:40:05.:40:12.

varying degrees of remiss is that they work at, and there is an asset

:40:13.:40:16.

of the NHS sitting out there, that people cannot access. Where are the

:40:17.:40:21.

evening surgeries, the night time GPs that are dealing with people

:40:22.:40:26.

when you are getting locums coming out? All of us have stories, and I

:40:27.:40:32.

do, of people who are experiencing an NHS that is less than we would

:40:33.:40:38.

expect. So GB contracts need to be looked at again? -- GP contract is?

:40:39.:40:46.

Absolutely. I think what we are looking at with the A problem is

:40:47.:40:52.

the thin end of the wedge, where the anything and everything approach,

:40:53.:40:54.

send everybody into the hospitals, is creating an overload that gets us

:40:55.:40:58.

to question things like the management. There were lots of

:40:59.:41:05.

issues revealed in that programme and subsequent programmes during the

:41:06.:41:11.

week. Jonathan Miller says the difficulties at the the Royal were

:41:12.:41:18.

the tip of the ice -- iceberg. If we think about it as issues of GPs,

:41:19.:41:25.

wide access to waiting lists, things like that, it has become very

:41:26.:41:29.

alarming in oration to the system as a whole. There needs to be a step

:41:30.:41:33.

taken back by all involved, particularly in oration to those who

:41:34.:41:44.

have been involved -- in relation. The health portfolio remained a bit

:41:45.:41:49.

of a poisoned chalice. It is, but we shouldn't look at it that way,

:41:50.:41:53.

because no matter what politician takes it up, they have a challenge.

:41:54.:41:57.

And we as a public need to understand that is not an easy thing

:41:58.:42:04.

to do. I think it is easy to blame the Minister for something that is

:42:05.:42:09.

really quite extensive. We are paying people in the health service

:42:10.:42:14.

management more than even ministers. So the responsibility needs to be

:42:15.:42:20.

further down the line. The other issue is that people 's expectations

:42:21.:42:24.

need to be more realistic as well as to what they can expect from the

:42:25.:42:30.

health service. Absolutely. If we look at this period of austerities,

:42:31.:42:33.

it's problematic in terms of where the money is going, the challenges

:42:34.:42:38.

are channelling that in a more effective way. We will hear from you

:42:39.:42:44.

both throughout the programme. Well, money's too tight to mention in most

:42:45.:42:47.

government departments - but maybe not in the Department for Education?

:42:48.:42:50.

The Minister told MLAs that schools will not now face cuts in their

:42:51.:42:54.

budgets next year and some schools will still get an increase. Last

:42:55.:43:02.

year principals hit out at the proposed changes to the Common

:43:03.:43:04.

Funding Formula, saying some could see their budgets cut by up to

:43:05.:43:08.

?40,000 next year. So how has the Minister managed to come up with a

:43:09.:43:12.

solution that pleases everone? John O'Dowd is with me. A bit of a magic

:43:13.:43:19.

trick, some people would say. First of all you've had to concede that

:43:20.:43:22.

your original plans for the Common Funding Formula were unworkable. I

:43:23.:43:26.

haven't conceded that. I still believe the principle of tax doing

:43:27.:43:32.

educational underachievement through social deprivation remains. I was

:43:33.:43:37.

clear that the figures given to schools were indicative and include

:43:38.:43:42.

the ?15.8 million that is to be added to school budgets. There are

:43:43.:43:47.

several ways you can add that. This year we had 3000 more children in

:43:48.:43:50.

primary schools on the previous year, 1700 less in other schools,

:43:51.:43:57.

I'm proposing we have a split pot, one for primary and nursery

:43:58.:44:02.

schools. How we divide at ?15.8 million is key as to how we move

:44:03.:44:06.

forward. The target of tackling it remains. But that is not the

:44:07.:44:13.

contingency fund you are using for this. That is a separate amount of

:44:14.:44:17.

money. No, we shouldn't confuse the two. Where did the money from the

:44:18.:44:24.

contingency come from? I heard it was to bail you out in the mail you

:44:25.:44:28.

got into over the Common Funding Formula. I knew all along I had the

:44:29.:44:35.

?15.8 million, that would be added to the pot. When we do that, I have

:44:36.:44:40.

yet to make my mind which final formula we will end up with, we have

:44:41.:44:45.

a minus around ?300,000. The universal budget I have of 2

:44:46.:44:51.

million, if I can't find that, shouldn't be in the post. But it is

:44:52.:44:57.

a temporary stay of execution for these schools. What happens next

:44:58.:45:05.

year? We're into a new budget year next year, I will be going and

:45:06.:45:12.

negotiating with my executive colleagues strongly for an enhanced

:45:13.:45:15.

education budget, and during this budgetary period we did secure ?130

:45:16.:45:23.

extra from the executive. But the Department of extra still has

:45:24.:45:28.

millions from where we were three or four years ago. Education is

:45:29.:45:35.

important, when it comes to negotiations around the budget...

:45:36.:45:38.

You asked for feedback from the proposals. 77% of respondents

:45:39.:45:45.

opposed the use of free school meals to determine which schools get more

:45:46.:45:49.

money. 600 schools believed they would face budget cuts of up to

:45:50.:45:52.

?33,000! People told you it was a problem and you have had to change

:45:53.:45:57.

tack. That is what consultations are about. So you have taken it on

:45:58.:46:03.

board. You also have to accept, you didn't get it right first time

:46:04.:46:10.

round. I welcome the fact that 15,000 people responded to this

:46:11.:46:17.

consultation. This has been an open, democratic base we have been

:46:18.:46:21.

involved in. But in terms of the consultation response, one school

:46:22.:46:26.

issued 2000 responses, entitled to do so but it has to be put in that

:46:27.:46:32.

context. Around 4000 of them are lobby letters, you have to put them

:46:33.:46:38.

in that context. I can go through the competition responses on the

:46:39.:46:42.

basis, is there an alternative proposed? Man has been proposed. The

:46:43.:46:47.

Public Accounts Committee of the SMB tells me free school meals is a

:46:48.:46:52.

robust measure. And the OECD tells me it is a robust measure of social

:46:53.:47:01.

deprivation. Is this a stay of execution for these schools for a 12

:47:02.:47:04.

month period, and can they expect cuts to their budget the following

:47:05.:47:10.

year, or are you saying you will also be able to find the excess

:47:11.:47:13.

money necessary to make sure schools don't face real cuts? Schools

:47:14.:47:22.

budgets depend on a number of factors, the number of pupils they

:47:23.:47:26.

take in, if a school loses pupils, there is nothing I can do about

:47:27.:47:31.

that. But I'm committed this financial year to support schools

:47:32.:47:34.

who may be losing money as a result of the changes I am making. I'm

:47:35.:47:37.

committed to those schools that I will go into negotiations with my

:47:38.:47:44.

colleagues and fight very hard to improve and increase the education

:47:45.:47:48.

budget, I want to see all schools budgets increased in the future. Of

:47:49.:47:54.

course you would, a lot of people will say it is laudable that the

:47:55.:47:57.

minister wants to target schools with deprivation issues and social

:47:58.:48:01.

need issues. You were prepared to sacrifice calls that you saw as well

:48:02.:48:07.

off, more socially advantaged. -- schools. So that you can transfer

:48:08.:48:12.

the money to schools with a particular need. And you now are not

:48:13.:48:18.

going down that road? I haven't said that. Those schools with high free

:48:19.:48:26.

school milk intakes will see a significant rise in their budgets.

:48:27.:48:30.

It's not because it is laudable. If we go back to be health debate, the

:48:31.:48:34.

Royal Victoria was still faces significant pressures so I was

:48:35.:48:40.

suggesting we shouldn't target... We have schools who are facing

:48:41.:48:43.

significant pressures because of the social economic intake. That is

:48:44.:48:47.

where we need to target resources if we are going to give those young

:48:48.:48:51.

people a chance in life and make sure they contribute to our society.

:48:52.:48:57.

But the charge was you were robbing Peter to Papal. You have got the

:48:58.:49:02.

money from somewhere else. You say you were able to find the money

:49:03.:49:05.

without any difficulty, why did you not think of that before you put the

:49:06.:49:08.

schools who thought they were going to lose out through the trauma they

:49:09.:49:13.

have been through? I have debated this issue with used several times.

:49:14.:49:19.

You have changed your position. You sat in that seat and said, tough,

:49:20.:49:23.

this is what's happening and I can't do anything about it. You are now

:49:24.:49:26.

saying, I was always able to do something about it. Perhaps you

:49:27.:49:34.

weren't listening! The fact of the matter is, I have always sat here

:49:35.:49:38.

and said to you, there is ?15.8 million included in the part, it is

:49:39.:49:43.

how I make that up that is the important thing. Schools with high

:49:44.:49:48.

free school meal intakes will receive additional funding, that is

:49:49.:49:53.

where resources are needed. I believe it is the right thing to do,

:49:54.:49:56.

because all the evidence tells me it's the right thing to do. Was this

:49:57.:50:02.

all a great fuss about nothing? This has been a very good debate. But the

:50:03.:50:07.

teachers, parents who thought they were going to lose out... If we are

:50:08.:50:13.

going to move forward as a society, these are the bread-and-butter

:50:14.:50:17.

debates we need to be having. Politicians are often criticised for

:50:18.:50:20.

not dealing with those issues, this is literally a bread-and-butter

:50:21.:50:24.

issue. Thank you for coming in and joining us. Plans to cut funding

:50:25.:50:30.

from four Belfast-based Irish language groups have put the

:50:31.:50:32.

organisations on a potential collision course with Sinn Fein. The

:50:33.:50:36.

Culture Minister, Caral ni Chuilin, has backed a new funding model for

:50:37.:50:39.

Irish groups across Ireland - but none will be based here. Groups

:50:40.:50:42.

which gave evidence at Stormont say local Irish language provision will

:50:43.:50:45.

suffer. Our Political Reporter, Stephen Walker, has been

:50:46.:50:46.

investigating. This war of words is very different.

:50:47.:51:04.

Sinn Fein are used to doing political battle with Unionists over

:51:05.:51:10.

the use and promotion of the Irish language, but this row has brought

:51:11.:51:13.

the party into conflict with the very people who have spent decades

:51:14.:51:20.

promoting Irish in Northern Ireland. Last year, the culture minister,

:51:21.:51:24.

Caral ni Chuilin, endorsed the new funding model for Irish groups

:51:25.:51:29.

across the island. Under the cross party group, six new groups will

:51:30.:51:35.

take up work previously done by 19. It means Belfast waste groups will

:51:36.:51:45.

disappear. -- Belfast -based groups. It will have a detrimental effect on

:51:46.:51:49.

services for the Irish language community. We are talking about

:51:50.:51:53.

dismantling the whole of the infrastructure for the Irish

:51:54.:51:57.

language community. You think Sinn Fein have misjudged this? It seems

:51:58.:52:04.

to me that yes, they have. Whether they set out to do that or not, I am

:52:05.:52:09.

not sure, but these are the consequences of the decisions made

:52:10.:52:16.

at the ministerial Council. As an all Ireland party, Sinn Fein

:52:17.:52:19.

actually like the idea of Irish language provision on a 32 county,

:52:20.:52:24.

all Ireland basis. Money and particular the amount spent on

:52:25.:52:29.

salaries, is part of their argument for change. It's more important to

:52:30.:52:35.

focus on spending the money wisely in future. A slimmer organisation

:52:36.:52:41.

which delivers more efficiently and effectively, that is what Sinn Fein

:52:42.:52:45.

wants to see, we want to see that delivered in Belfast, in the north

:52:46.:52:52.

and throughout the whole island. Another group could vanish. The West

:52:53.:52:56.

Belfast body works in the Irish free school sector. Since 2008, they have

:52:57.:53:05.

had nearly ?1 million. The group has secured half a million from other

:53:06.:53:08.

sources. Staff here reject suggestions that too much money is

:53:09.:53:13.

spent on salaries. We have actually been paid pro rata a lot less than

:53:14.:53:22.

people would be in the South. The same kind of work as we are doing.

:53:23.:53:32.

We don't think we are overstaffed and we certainly don't think we are

:53:33.:53:37.

overpaid! The change will mean all six of the newly groups are in the

:53:38.:53:40.

Republic. None of them are in Northern Ireland. This was not about

:53:41.:53:46.

North versus South, East versus West. This is about promoting the

:53:47.:53:51.

language and providing better services in a more efficient way to

:53:52.:53:56.

the Irish language communities. It's about getting people out into the

:53:57.:54:01.

community, providing services. If electronics rather than politics is

:54:02.:54:05.

driving this debate, have Sinn Fein got this one right? It could be

:54:06.:54:13.

linked to the austerity agenda in the South, it is curious to see Sinn

:54:14.:54:17.

Fein, who are so anti-austerity in the south supporting this, claiming

:54:18.:54:22.

it is part of an all Ireland agenda that they have. It is curious they

:54:23.:54:29.

would pick on the northern groups, who were receiving only a fraction

:54:30.:54:33.

of the funding in the first place. Pebble, the umbrella organisation,

:54:34.:54:41.

and a development agency, will also face budget cuts. Across all the

:54:42.:54:46.

northern -based groups, it is feared around fifth in jobs could be lost.

:54:47.:54:51.

The funding for those is going to disappear after 31st of June. We are

:54:52.:54:57.

in the middle of February, so you can imagine, it is a grey cloud over

:54:58.:55:04.

everybody. On the 30th of June, when core funding is removed, these

:55:05.:55:08.

offices will close and the staff will be made redundant. Sinn Fein

:55:09.:55:12.

say talk of redundancies is premature. The people who have

:55:13.:55:18.

worked in those groups, I feel, need to be part of the new arrangement so

:55:19.:55:22.

they need to be engaging with the lead group which deals with their

:55:23.:55:27.

range of work. Some of them will be made redundant. Nobody knows that

:55:28.:55:32.

for sure because the process is still ongoing, and we don't know who

:55:33.:55:36.

is going to be redundant stop Sinn Fein insist they have done much to

:55:37.:55:41.

promote the Irish language. So does their stance on this issue caused

:55:42.:55:47.

political difficulties? It is oddly partition list, from a nationalist

:55:48.:55:52.

or republican perspective. Politically, it makes sense for Sinn

:55:53.:55:57.

Fein, they will create this all Ireland structure, they have this

:55:58.:56:00.

minister, Caral ni Chuilin, who has an important role in driving that,

:56:01.:56:05.

but it does look very odd when Sinn Fein would never normally refuse to

:56:06.:56:09.

call for more money or special treatment or local favouritism, for

:56:10.:56:17.

any issue. The Irish language sector is facing its biggest ever change.

:56:18.:56:21.

This week some of those facing budget cuts went to Stormont to

:56:22.:56:25.

argue their case. They hope their words were listened to and those

:56:26.:56:28.

planning this move will have a last-minute change of heart.

:56:29.:56:37.

Sheila Davidson and Orna Young are with them. Let's talk about

:56:38.:56:43.

education. Has the Minister had to think again about his policy as far

:56:44.:56:53.

as the common -- as far as the Common Funding Formula is concerned?

:56:54.:56:58.

Clearly there has been, it smacks to me of a postponement, of the

:56:59.:57:06.

inevitable, it effectively. But it is interesting that he made the

:57:07.:57:09.

point, there is plenty of money there, I am able to reorganise my

:57:10.:57:13.

budget to deal with this issue. My question was, why not do that before

:57:14.:57:16.

you put the principals, teachers and parents through the discomfort they

:57:17.:57:23.

have been through? For me, it is political playacting. You pull the

:57:24.:57:26.

rabbit out of the hat, 15 million out of the hat, I have solved the

:57:27.:57:31.

problem that I established in the first instance. The fact remains

:57:32.:57:33.

that an awful lot of school resources went into responding, and

:57:34.:57:38.

it seems to me that the one thing he says that is the best thing out of

:57:39.:57:44.

all of this, was the engagement. Why have such a negative engagement? Why

:57:45.:57:49.

put that 50 million into the schools if that metric is the best one,

:57:50.:57:54.

which I think is questionable. At the end of the day, why not just

:57:55.:57:58.

give it out and not have the resource of all the schools you had

:57:59.:58:01.

to submit plans and have the worry of contingencies, which they have

:58:02.:58:06.

had to start taking about, taken out of the way? I will come back to you

:58:07.:58:12.

both in a moment. Now, let's take a look back at this week's political

:58:13.:58:16.

news in 60 seconds - with Stephen Walker.

:58:17.:58:21.

Health dominated politics as the Royal's department came under

:58:22.:58:34.

scrutiny. Allegations of bullying, staff under intolerable pressure...

:58:35.:58:39.

I'm flabbergasted with what I've heard tonight. I have heard talk

:58:40.:58:43.

about the Royal as if this is only emerged over the last few days.

:58:44.:58:48.

Another MLA also had health concerns. Another survey, 12 months

:58:49.:58:55.

down the line, in those 12 months millions will have died waiting on

:58:56.:59:02.

transplants. Gregory Campbell told Martin McGuinness how to make

:59:03.:59:08.

friends and influence people. Counting the number of people who do

:59:09.:59:12.

speak to you and don't speak to you at Stormont, making you look and

:59:13.:59:17.

sound like a real loser. There was a call to ban election posters.

:59:18.:59:31.

Election posters, are they ever going to be banned? I would like to

:59:32.:59:40.

fix. I think they are unsightly. Strangely old-fashioned, aren't

:59:41.:59:46.

they? I couldn't agree more. I think those who are on the ball have

:59:47.:59:50.

already engaged with social media. Sheila, you are a PR expert, how big

:59:51.:59:57.

an own goal be to have the eyes of hundreds of millions of people on

:59:58.:00:00.

Northern Ireland, looking at election posters? I don't know if it

:00:01.:00:04.

would be so terrible, I think we could do without them... They are

:00:05.:00:12.

not the most attractive... But we're not going to know any of these

:00:13.:00:14.

people standing for election! This might be the only way. Even you

:00:15.:00:20.

couldn't have them all on. This is going to be a massive change in

:00:21.:00:25.

terms of the faces coming forward. I am looking forward to seeing and

:00:26.:00:30.

hearing some new voices and faces. You think it might influence you,

:00:31.:00:35.

the posters? Not a bit of it. Thank you both.

:00:36.:00:39.

direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,

:00:40.:00:47.

back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking

:00:48.:00:50.

about the weather. What could be more British? It has been

:00:51.:00:54.

practically the only topic of conversation for the past few

:00:55.:00:57.

weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,

:00:58.:01:02.

between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.

:01:03.:01:08.

That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the

:01:09.:01:13.

author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line

:01:14.:01:22.

or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was

:01:23.:01:28.

Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.

:01:29.:01:32.

UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to

:01:33.:01:37.

their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very

:01:38.:01:41.

fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband

:01:42.:01:44.

to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government

:01:45.:01:48.

failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual

:01:49.:01:51.

argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate

:01:52.:01:56.

change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't

:01:57.:02:00.

think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly

:02:01.:02:05.

because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The

:02:06.:02:08.

polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm

:02:09.:02:13.

a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not

:02:14.:02:17.

sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts

:02:18.:02:21.

David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those

:02:22.:02:26.

huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he

:02:27.:02:31.

has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate

:02:32.:02:36.

change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in

:02:37.:02:40.

2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and

:02:41.:02:44.

pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything.

:02:45.:02:48.

This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,

:02:49.:02:52.

they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government

:02:53.:02:57.

is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by

:02:58.:03:00.

the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to

:03:01.:03:05.

approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.

:03:06.:03:15.

What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down?

:03:16.:03:20.

Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,

:03:21.:03:23.

the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than

:03:24.:03:28.

green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed

:03:29.:03:30.

Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there

:03:31.:03:34.

isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems

:03:35.:03:40.

expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further

:03:41.:03:43.

south because of climate change. Or if it is, it is beyond our

:03:44.:03:47.

knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's

:03:48.:03:53.

saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science

:03:54.:03:58.

at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate

:03:59.:04:00.

change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had

:04:01.:04:05.

no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in

:04:06.:04:12.

the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual

:04:13.:04:14.

phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour

:04:15.:04:19.

Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a

:04:20.:04:23.

fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather

:04:24.:04:27.

than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,

:04:28.:04:30.

they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest

:04:31.:04:36.

summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that

:04:37.:04:42.

can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is

:04:43.:04:48.

difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that

:04:49.:04:51.

case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,

:04:52.:04:56.

what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the

:04:57.:05:02.

interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come

:05:03.:05:08.

out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we

:05:09.:05:12.

can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick

:05:13.:05:15.

O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.

:05:16.:05:20.

Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise

:05:21.:05:25.

reflection on that. They got 18%, 23% last year. The case he is making

:05:26.:05:30.

is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour

:05:31.:05:33.

voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP

:05:34.:05:38.

that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of

:05:39.:05:41.

social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their

:05:42.:05:45.

insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly

:05:46.:05:51.

well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to

:05:52.:05:55.

the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for

:05:56.:06:00.

Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a

:06:01.:06:05.

very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a

:06:06.:06:09.

commentator rather than head of communications for a political

:06:10.:06:14.

party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome

:06:15.:06:20.

priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop

:06:21.:06:24.

of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic

:06:25.:06:30.

safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be

:06:31.:06:36.

left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no

:06:37.:06:41.

longer exists. And it is a real, real, dramatic crisis. The second is

:06:42.:06:49.

that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,

:06:50.:06:53.

I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get

:06:54.:06:57.

it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two

:06:58.:07:03.

weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see

:07:04.:07:08.

how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there

:07:09.:07:10.

have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been

:07:11.:07:14.

scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country

:07:15.:07:18.

is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding

:07:19.:07:27.

pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the

:07:28.:07:32.

safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory

:07:33.:07:37.

reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?

:07:38.:07:42.

No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not

:07:43.:07:49.

up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think

:07:50.:07:52.

the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a

:07:53.:07:56.

full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had

:07:57.:08:00.

some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,

:08:01.:08:03.

instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of

:08:04.:08:07.

money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when

:08:08.:08:11.

members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,

:08:12.:08:15.

the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties,

:08:16.:08:20.

ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made

:08:21.:08:25.

deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a

:08:26.:08:28.

centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about

:08:29.:08:32.

this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is

:08:33.:08:36.

it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them

:08:37.:08:41.

look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You

:08:42.:08:44.

can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But

:08:45.:08:50.

the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate

:08:51.:08:54.

the poor and extend opportunity. One of the worst moments for the Tories

:08:55.:08:58.

was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact

:08:59.:09:02.

that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the

:09:03.:09:06.

largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.

:09:07.:09:11.

The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't

:09:12.:09:15.

vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of

:09:16.:09:19.

them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think

:09:20.:09:23.

it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than

:09:24.:09:27.

trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!

:09:28.:09:31.

The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I

:09:32.:09:38.

want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of

:09:39.:09:45.

February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 12th,

:09:46.:09:52.

there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an

:09:53.:09:56.

improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up

:09:57.:10:01.

one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden

:10:02.:10:05.

change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is

:10:06.:10:09.

completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his

:10:10.:10:14.

nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and

:10:15.:10:17.

depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.

:10:18.:10:23.

Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot

:10:24.:10:30.

shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women

:10:31.:10:34.

to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.

:10:35.:10:39.

Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less

:10:40.:10:43.

likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives

:10:44.:10:49.

and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential

:10:50.:10:55.

demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the

:10:56.:10:59.

public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they

:11:00.:11:02.

really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the

:11:03.:11:08.

following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just

:11:09.:11:12.

increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour

:11:13.:11:17.

seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told

:11:18.:11:21.

that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It

:11:22.:11:27.

looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of

:11:28.:11:32.

rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the

:11:33.:11:37.

faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,

:11:38.:11:41.

they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female

:11:42.:11:46.

face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is

:11:47.:11:51.

proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?

:11:52.:11:58.

Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a

:11:59.:12:02.

kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.

:12:03.:12:07.

The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As

:12:08.:12:13.

opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very

:12:14.:12:18.

male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in

:12:19.:12:20.

constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change

:12:21.:12:26.

things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they

:12:27.:12:38.

work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense

:12:39.:12:45.

advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will

:12:46.:12:51.

that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see

:12:52.:12:54.

how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going

:12:55.:13:03.

to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour

:13:04.:13:06.

Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think

:13:07.:13:12.

it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I

:13:13.:13:16.

would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?

:13:17.:13:24.

I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her

:13:25.:13:28.

stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week

:13:29.:13:36.

off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is

:13:37.:13:41.

Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.

:13:42.:13:44.

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