20/03/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


20/03/2016

Mark Carruthers looks at the political developments of the week and questions policy makers on the key issues.


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Iain Duncan Smith follows up his resignation with a blistering

:00:40.:00:50.

attack on George Osborne, saying some of the Chancellor's

:00:51.:00:53.

budget measures are deeply unfair and damaging to the country.

:00:54.:00:56.

It's being seen as a direct attack on Chancellor Osborne -

:00:57.:01:00.

are his leadership hopes now holed below the waterline?

:01:01.:01:03.

And with ministers now close to civil war over IDS's resignation,

:01:04.:01:07.

And coming up here: With the Easter Rising

:01:08.:01:09.

commemorations just one week away, I'll be asking the Justice Minister

:01:10.:01:12.

for his assessment of the legacy of the rebellion 100 years on.

:01:13.:01:17.

But with questions over who pays, is the

:01:18.:01:22.

And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political

:01:23.:01:31.

panel in the business - Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott

:01:32.:01:35.

and Janan Ganesh, who'll be tweeting throughout the programme

:01:36.:01:39.

So, George Osborne unveiled a Budget which he hoped

:01:40.:01:44.

would satisfy the Tory faithful, generate a feel-good factor

:01:45.:01:47.

in the run up to the EU referendum and enhance his own leadership

:01:48.:01:51.

That strategy started to come off the rails within 24 hours

:01:52.:01:57.

as the Chancellor faced Tory revolts on four fronts.

:01:58.:02:00.

And was blown to smithereens on Friday night when welfare

:02:01.:02:02.

secretary Iain Duncan Smith resigned over savings to disability payments.

:02:03.:02:05.

This morning open warfare is breaking out

:02:06.:02:08.

We'll be devoting the next half hour to this story,

:02:09.:02:19.

with analysis and comment from Nick, Isabel and Janan and interviews

:02:20.:02:22.

with the shadow work and pensions secretary Owen Smith,

:02:23.:02:26.

the Conservative backbencher Heidi Allen, and the head

:02:27.:02:29.

of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson.

:02:30.:02:31.

First, Giles Dilnot reports on the very public falling out

:02:32.:02:35.

at the top of David Cameron's government.

:02:36.:02:38.

When the Chancellor gets badly hurt in an attack from his own side,

:02:39.:02:43.

we shouldn't be surprised where it came

:02:44.:02:49.

Iain Duncan Smith and George Osborne whenever was buddies

:02:50.:02:53.

and they are on the opposite sides of the EU

:02:54.:02:57.

But for nearly six years, they've worked together

:02:58.:03:04.

in government, delivering welfare reform and savings.

:03:05.:03:07.

Last July, when the Chancellor announced the living

:03:08.:03:09.

Those currently on the minimum wage will see that pay rise

:03:10.:03:14.

And whilst in polling, there was popular support

:03:15.:03:22.

for balancing the books and reforming welfare,

:03:23.:03:29.

there was also angry protest, especially from disabled people,

:03:30.:03:32.

who passionately believed they had been targeted

:03:33.:03:34.

The deepest wound a Work and Pensions

:03:35.:03:38.

Secretary could inflict on his own governments,

:03:39.:03:41.

On Wednesday we were touted a budget that would be dull,

:03:42.:03:53.

Nonetheless, the Chancellor and wannabe PM was

:03:54.:03:57.

The richest 1% pay 28% of all income tax revenue,

:03:58.:04:00.

a higher proportion than in any single year

:04:01.:04:08.

But not so for many disabled people and enough Tory MPs,

:04:09.:04:22.

of State for Work and Pensions, set out changes that will ensure

:04:23.:04:27.

that within the rising disability budget, support is better

:04:28.:04:30.

It was a confirmation of changes that just 48 hours later would see

:04:31.:04:37.

a resignation letter from the man the Chancellor was referring to,

:04:38.:04:39.

questioning if enough is being done to ensure

:04:40.:04:43.

These were changes to personal independence payments that have

:04:44.:04:50.

replaced disability living allowance, that would make it more

:04:51.:04:54.

likely large numbers of recipients got less money,

:04:55.:04:57.

and in some cases much less, in future.

:04:58.:05:08.

Something he regarded as a compromise too far.

:05:09.:05:11.

According to Mr Duncan Smith, the changes had demanded because too

:05:12.:05:13.

much emphasis on money-saving exercises and that his welfare

:05:14.:05:14.

to work reforms could not be repeatedly

:05:15.:05:16.

By this weekend, the government's unofficial paramedic

:05:17.:05:22.

was dispatched to patch up the internal wounds,

:05:23.:05:23.

Mr Duncan Smith's literary cuts had inflicted.

:05:24.:05:37.

by the whole Cabinet on Wednesday morning before the Chancellor

:05:38.:05:42.

And he was obviously part of that process.

:05:43.:05:46.

These proposals came from his department.

:05:47.:05:48.

And the PM's response to the letter stressed...

:05:49.:05:54.

In the hours after the budget, amid angry

:05:55.:05:56.

rumblings from the backbenches, suddenly the government

:05:57.:05:58.

where describing and announced policy

:05:59.:06:02.

Something that has been put forward, there has been a review,

:06:03.:06:05.

And the suggestion the next day from the PM

:06:06.:06:10.

We are going to discuss what we put forward

:06:11.:06:15.

with the disability charities and others, as the Chancellor said

:06:16.:06:18.

It is important this increase in money

:06:19.:06:26.

goes to the people who need it the most.

:06:27.:06:29.

The problem is, the internal party concerns were that it looked

:06:30.:06:31.

like money was going to those that didn't need it most.

:06:32.:06:33.

The headline rate of capital gains tax currently stands at 28%.

:06:34.:06:35.

I am cutting the capital gains tax paid by basic rate

:06:36.:06:40.

Iain Duncan Smith said the disability

:06:41.:06:45.

reforms couldn't be defended within a budget that benefits

:06:46.:06:46.

I'm told this was the most toxic aspect for a large number

:06:47.:06:54.

And that he was not the only conservative in government

:06:55.:06:59.

who'd considered resignation over this.

:07:00.:07:01.

But not everyone was sorry to see him go.

:07:02.:07:03.

The problems have been at the heart of the DWP.

:07:04.:07:10.

I do not see eye to eye with the Treasury,

:07:11.:07:13.

I'm not the Chancellor's biggest supporter,

:07:14.:07:17.

shall we say, but the reality is, in all the experiences I've had,

:07:18.:07:20.

the problems have been with an evangelical point of view,

:07:21.:07:22.

They have consistently failed disabled people

:07:23.:07:27.

As Stephen Crabb takes on work and pensions,

:07:28.:07:32.

But clearly the quiet man reflected if

:07:33.:07:40.

you're going to turn up the volume at all,

:07:41.:07:42.

best rattle the windows of Downing Street.

:07:43.:07:44.

A war of words has now broken out in Iain Duncan Smith's

:07:45.:07:48.

old department, with one junior minister accusing him

:07:49.:07:51.

of "shocking" behaviour, but three other ministers rounding

:07:52.:07:53.

Mr Duncan Smith gave his first post-resignation interview to Andrew

:07:54.:07:58.

Anybody who thinks this is a here today, gone tomorrow

:07:59.:08:04.

I am genuinely frustrated, I have no personal ambitions. If I never go

:08:05.:08:15.

back into government again, I will not cry about that, it is not my

:08:16.:08:20.

ambition. I came into this government, and let me be clear, I

:08:21.:08:24.

came into this government because I cared about welfare reform. I spent

:08:25.:08:31.

eight years in social justice trying to figure out why certain

:08:32.:08:34.

communities were so badly off and how could we get them back to work

:08:35.:08:38.

and solve that one. Everything I have done has been driven by my

:08:39.:08:43.

desire to improve the quality of life for the worst. We can debate my

:08:44.:08:47.

policies, but my motivation has always been a bad back. My motive

:08:48.:08:55.

now, I am concerned that I want to succeed and it cannot do the things

:08:56.:09:01.

it should because it is too focused on narrowly getting the deficit down

:09:02.:09:03.

without saying where it should for. Minutes later the energy

:09:04.:09:18.

secretary Amber Rudd, popped up to attack her former

:09:19.:09:20.

cabinet colleague - saying she resents Mr Duncan Smith's

:09:21.:09:23.

"high moral tone". I do remain perplexed. It indicated

:09:24.:09:34.

he was making progress. He wrote a letter on Thursday night saying what

:09:35.:09:38.

he was doing and why we should support it. So I don't understand. I

:09:39.:09:45.

do remain perplexed about it, but I am disappointed. This is an man I

:09:46.:09:50.

sat a cabinet with for nearly a year. He was a cabinet minister for

:09:51.:09:55.

nearly six years. I do respect him, so to suddenly launch a bombshell on

:09:56.:10:02.

the rest of us in a way that is difficult for us all to understand,

:10:03.:10:11.

is disappointing. It is the Tory party now in open welfare and it is

:10:12.:10:20.

not easily quelled? If Amber Rudd is perplexed, it is a dereliction of

:10:21.:10:24.

duty on her part to understand what has been going on in her own

:10:25.:10:29.

Administration. In a way, there is nothing sudden about this for Iain

:10:30.:10:32.

Duncan Smith, it has been brewing for a long time. She has known that.

:10:33.:10:38.

He has been rustling for a long time whether he can do better, staying

:10:39.:10:42.

where he is and operating within the difficult constraints the Treasury

:10:43.:10:47.

has imposed on him. Or whether he is better off out and saying what he

:10:48.:10:51.

really thinks. That is what tipped him over the edge. The Downing

:10:52.:10:56.

Street strategy is to paint Iain Duncan Smith as a kind of,

:10:57.:11:01.

head-banging Eurosceptic and try to pretend it is all about the EU

:11:02.:11:05.

referendum. I don't think anyone who watched Iain Duncan Smith this

:11:06.:11:08.

morning giving that powerful interview to Andrew Marr, could

:11:09.:11:14.

really doubt that what this is about is Iain Duncan Smith's real desire

:11:15.:11:18.

to do the right thing by the disadvantaged. The rest is just

:11:19.:11:27.

noises off. When you look at some of these clips come he comes out

:11:28.:11:31.

against the welfare cap, to arbitrate. If you are sitting in the

:11:32.:11:39.

Labour Party right now, you will be cutting up that interview and

:11:40.:11:43.

pouring it out at every opportunity. This story will go on and on? I

:11:44.:11:49.

interviewed Iain Duncan Smith about two months after the 2010 election.

:11:50.:11:54.

He said if George Osborne wants me to be a cheese parer and do

:11:55.:11:59.

arbitrate cuts, I will be out. Isabel says commie has been rustling

:12:00.:12:04.

for six years with this. He came into this after the visit to the

:12:05.:12:10.

Easterhouse estate in Glasgow. He had in Europe and championed the

:12:11.:12:14.

vulnerable. He came to it with a mission to try and increase

:12:15.:12:16.

incentives for the low paid combat to work. To George Osborne,

:12:17.:12:21.

it is the bottom line. But it is combat to work. To George Osborne,

:12:22.:12:27.

going to go away, you have the extraordinary spectacle of three

:12:28.:12:28.

going to go away, you have the pretty Patel included, putting out

:12:29.:12:31.

statements in pretty Patel included, putting out

:12:32.:12:37.

Duncan Smith. And you have the pensions minister delivering a

:12:38.:12:40.

Downing Street script saying this is about Europe, even though there is

:12:41.:12:42.

not a word about Europe in Iain Duncan Smith's statement. Ross

:12:43.:12:48.

Altman, who was unhappy with Downing Street and the Treasury on the

:12:49.:12:52.

pension changes coming out and delivering what Downing Street one.

:12:53.:12:56.

It is a mess and it shows the normal discipline you would expect in

:12:57.:13:00.

government really is a challenge but the referendum. It is over the

:13:01.:13:07.

George Osborne? If wasn't on the budget. Tax credits last summer,

:13:08.:13:11.

reversal on pension reforms this year. And now this, you cannot

:13:12.:13:16.

deliver but on Wednesday which is just a proposition by Thursday

:13:17.:13:19.

evening and by Friday evening provokes a senior Cabinet colleagues

:13:20.:13:22.

resignation. It is bad for him. stun them month after a general

:13:23.:13:43.

election Monday, ... And start with them all going in different ways

:13:44.:13:45.

during the referendum, it could get worse. They need this referendum out

:13:46.:13:52.

of the way as quickly as possible. They

:13:53.:13:56.

of the way as quickly as possible. would suggest, with the remaining

:13:57.:14:01.

of the way as quickly as possible. this. In four years' time, at a

:14:02.:14:05.

general election will this. In four years' time, at a

:14:06.:14:10.

George Osborne's leadership chances? Quite possibly.

:14:11.:14:13.

George Osborne's leadership chances? Chancellor will put this back

:14:14.:14:14.

together again Chancellor will put this back

:14:15.:14:17.

campaign. It might not just Chancellor will put this back

:14:18.:14:18.

Osborne's future on the line, it Chancellor will put this back

:14:19.:14:24.

could be the Prime Minister's the Chancellor's fate if tied

:14:25.:14:31.

could be the Prime Minister's the to make the Conservatives

:14:32.:14:34.

could be the Prime Minister's the again. It George Osborne goes down,

:14:35.:14:34.

David Cameron's position is again. It George Osborne goes down,

:14:35.:14:39.

And don't forget Cameron has never at this point,

:14:40.:14:52.

ever, he ain't controlling it. As we know, these things have a life of

:14:53.:14:53.

their own, so it should keep us Iain Duncan Smith's resignation has

:14:54.:15:02.

been simmering for some time but it was triggered by plans

:15:03.:15:05.

to make cuts to disability benefits A few days before George Osborne's

:15:06.:15:11.

budget, the government previewed plans to change the way claimants

:15:12.:15:13.

were assessed for certain disability benefits, saving ?1.3 billion a

:15:14.:15:20.

year. The office of budgetary responsibility said the changes to

:15:21.:15:26.

the personal independence payments, or Pips, would adversely affect

:15:27.:15:32.

370,000 people by 2020. The amount of Paire pick a person receives is

:15:33.:15:38.

decided by awarding points based on need -- the amount of PIP. Grab

:15:39.:15:46.

rails, personal toilet seats, arguing people would audit have

:15:47.:15:50.

these items. Iain Duncan Smith resigned, saying the changes were

:15:51.:15:58.

not responsible. Replying to the resignation, the Prime Minister said

:15:59.:16:01.

it had now been agreed not to proceed with the policies in their

:16:02.:16:06.

current form. But that wasn't the only major criticism levelled at

:16:07.:16:09.

George Osborne's budget. The Chancellor confirmed he will miss

:16:10.:16:12.

Fiorentina of his three fiscal rules. Next financial year, welfare

:16:13.:16:18.

bill cost almost ?120 billion, well over the cap of ?115 billion, which

:16:19.:16:25.

he introduced himself to restrict overall welfare spending. And he

:16:26.:16:28.

also broke his debt rule, which promised that national debt would

:16:29.:16:32.

decline every year as a proportion of national income. This financial

:16:33.:16:37.

year, total debt is expected to be 83.7% of GDP, up from 83.3% in

:16:38.:16:43.

2014-15. We did ask the Government for

:16:44.:16:46.

an interview about the disability But we were told no

:16:47.:16:48.

one was available. It's a familiar refrain these days,

:16:49.:16:51.

especially when the government I'm joined now by the head

:16:52.:16:54.

of the Institute for Welcome to the programme. It looks

:16:55.:17:06.

like the government is making a U-turn on these cuts to disability

:17:07.:17:11.

payments, how big a haul does that blow in the Chancellor's efforts to

:17:12.:17:16.

get a budget surplus by 2020? The truth is we are talking very small

:17:17.:17:20.

numbers in the context of ?800 billion a year or so of spending.

:17:21.:17:25.

The Chancellor is aiming for nearly a billion pound surplus, he doesn't

:17:26.:17:28.

get this, it takes just down to under ten, so in that sense it

:17:29.:17:32.

doesn't matter all that much to his target the 2020. But he has already

:17:33.:17:38.

inked in 3.5 billion of unspecified cuts, we don't know what they would

:17:39.:17:42.

be to get this surplus, but there are about eight or 9 billion of

:17:43.:17:46.

watch some might call jiggery-pokery, cuts to public

:17:47.:17:49.

investment in the final year, and now this. It must make it more

:17:50.:17:56.

difficult for them. There are all sorts of things in the budget aimed

:17:57.:18:05.

at that particular year. Numbers are being moved around and there are

:18:06.:18:08.

some unspecified spending cuts. It is important to see this in the

:18:09.:18:13.

broader context. Unless something awful happens, we will get close to

:18:14.:18:18.

a budget balance in 2019-20, which given that we were over 150 billion

:18:19.:18:24.

in deficit in 2010, the biggest deficit in his time that we have

:18:25.:18:28.

had, to get from their too close to surplus will be quite an

:18:29.:18:30.

achievement. Economically and politically understand it matters

:18:31.:18:36.

enormously, but economically, the difference between a ?10 billion

:18:37.:18:40.

surplus and the deficit is almost hear the dash-mac when neither here

:18:41.:18:41.

nor there. The Treasury would expect that

:18:42.:18:55.

department to find ?1.3 billion elsewhere, is that right? Not

:18:56.:18:58.

necessarily, this is unlike the health budget or the education

:18:59.:19:05.

budget, it is determined by the demands on the budget. So I think if

:19:06.:19:12.

they don't put these changes in, the presumption will be at least that

:19:13.:19:15.

the spending will still be in the budget. The day after the budget,

:19:16.:19:19.

you said the Chancellor had only a 50-50 chance of filling his surplus

:19:20.:19:25.

in 2020. Would you like to recalibrate these odds? It is a

:19:26.:19:31.

relatively small change in the context of where we are, still a

:19:32.:19:36.

50-50 shot. The thing that will determine it is much less changes of

:19:37.:19:39.

this kind and parsley more what happens to the economy, whether the

:19:40.:19:43.

economy does better or worse than currently expected. In many ways,

:19:44.:19:47.

the most important thing we learned on Wednesday is that the O BR has

:19:48.:19:53.

much less optimistic about the economy, and therefore we will all

:19:54.:19:56.

be worse off than we thought we were going to be. The Treasury, as Iain

:19:57.:20:02.

Duncan Smith has been saying, has been clawing away at working age

:20:03.:20:08.

benefits the years, for him this was the final straw. But isn't that

:20:09.:20:14.

inevitable, if you have a government who ring fences pensions and the

:20:15.:20:18.

NHS, the only big travel figure spending line is welfare? If you are

:20:19.:20:21.

looking, like the government has been common to really dramatically

:20:22.:20:26.

reduce the deficit significantly, you are not going to avoid doing

:20:27.:20:32.

things on the welfare side. Much more than ?100 billion was spent on

:20:33.:20:36.

just working age welfare, covered by that welfare cap, which is far more

:20:37.:20:40.

than we spend on almost anything else, apart from health service and

:20:41.:20:43.

pensions. But the Chancellor has created this fiscal position. Even

:20:44.:20:52.

though it was weaker, he cut business rates, he cut corporation

:20:53.:20:56.

tax, capital gains tax, he raised the personal allowance, and he

:20:57.:21:00.

raised 40p income tax threshold. He didn't have to do any of that. Even

:21:01.:21:05.

if he had done only some of that, he would not have had to look for these

:21:06.:21:09.

cuts in disability for study has made that himself will stop you are

:21:10.:21:13.

right, she didn't have to make any of those changes, but it was very

:21:14.:21:17.

clearly in the Conservative manifesto to increase the personal

:21:18.:21:21.

allowance. So presuming that he would have kept the manifesto

:21:22.:21:24.

changes, he would have had to have done that, and has to do quite a lot

:21:25.:21:28.

more route. Cutting those taxes clearly means you have to do some

:21:29.:21:32.

other things to maintain his target. But he didn't have to do them. Also,

:21:33.:21:38.

perhaps his leadership tensions did play a part. There were two major

:21:39.:21:42.

areas where they could have raised a lot of money, pension reform, by

:21:43.:21:48.

taking away the top tax-free, which could have saved billions, and

:21:49.:21:51.

raising the fuel duty. If you don't visit now, when will you? Both could

:21:52.:21:55.

have raised billions and he chose not to do it. Those are two very

:21:56.:21:59.

different kinds of things. Yes, you are right, it is astonishing with

:22:00.:22:04.

petrol prices at their lowest level for a very long time, chatty on

:22:05.:22:09.

petrol at its lowest level since the mid-19 90s, the cost of driving a

:22:10.:22:13.

car at its lowest level for perhaps 30 years. If you can't increase fuel

:22:14.:22:17.

duties even then, that is a long-term problem for the Treasury,

:22:18.:22:21.

because it brings in a lot of money, ?30 billion a year, and if that goes

:22:22.:22:24.

it is a real problem. On pension tax will if it is a much more complex

:22:25.:22:30.

issue. There are good economic arguments, for maintaining it as we

:22:31.:22:34.

have at the moment, and had you got rid of that 40% relief, you would

:22:35.:22:37.

have hit the 5 million or so people who pay 40% tax, it would have been

:22:38.:22:42.

another slice of the population rather unhappy. The national debt,

:22:43.:22:49.

not the deficit, will be 1.7 4 trillion by 20 20. If the government

:22:50.:22:56.

was then to run a surplus of say 10 billion a year for ten years, which

:22:57.:23:00.

would be unprecedented in British government, after a decade, the debt

:23:01.:23:05.

would still, by my simple rhythmic calculation, the ?1.64 trillion. Is

:23:06.:23:11.

that what you mean by economically irrelevant in running a surplus? The

:23:12.:23:18.

key point about the size of the debt is it is size as a fraction of

:23:19.:23:22.

national income. More important than the absolute level. As the -- even

:23:23.:23:31.

running a surplus of 10 billion or so a year, you don't get too

:23:32.:23:34.

prerecession levels of debt until the mid 2030s. The argument the

:23:35.:23:40.

Chancellor would make the running a surplus year after year is that even

:23:41.:23:51.

if you just run a balanced budget, it takes

:23:52.:23:51.

Owen Smith, in his resignation undo the damage that the crisis

:23:52.:24:05.

Owen Smith, in his resignation letter, Iain Duncan Smith

:24:06.:24:12.

Owen Smith, in his resignation protection of pensions. Do you agree

:24:13.:24:18.

with that? I don't think that should be the first thing

:24:19.:24:21.

with that? I don't think that should all, Andrew. I think the very clear

:24:22.:24:22.

message that Iain Duncan all, Andrew. I think the very clear

:24:23.:24:25.

himself has delivered is their word choices that could have been made in

:24:26.:24:29.

the budget, and the Chancellor made them and he made the wrong ones

:24:30.:24:32.

coming chose to cut the benefits from disabled people. As we have

:24:33.:24:37.

heard, the PIP cuts taking many thousands of pounds away from the

:24:38.:24:41.

370,000 people, and instead he chose that he was going to cut corporation

:24:42.:24:48.

tax, which he -- is going to benefit large countries in this country, and

:24:49.:24:50.

he chose to cut capital gains large countries in this country, and

:24:51.:24:52.

which were largely benefit people who have got a bit of money. So I

:24:53.:24:57.

think there were different changes he could have made even within the

:24:58.:25:00.

terms of this budget that would have been much fairer. I understand that,

:25:01.:25:09.

but which are nevertheless have thinks it the benefits? -- ring

:25:10.:25:18.

fenced? We need to look at all these things long-term, but it would be

:25:19.:25:21.

for a Labour government when we get closer to the next election to the

:25:22.:25:26.

absolute specifics on all of those pension benefits, but by and large,

:25:27.:25:32.

let's be clear. The last Labour government worked incredibly hard to

:25:33.:25:35.

raise pensioners out of poverty. We were incredibly successful in that

:25:36.:25:39.

regard, a million pensioners lifted out of poverty under the last Labour

:25:40.:25:42.

government and I don't think they ought to be the target for cuts,

:25:43.:25:45.

just as I don't believe that disabled people ought to be. There

:25:46.:25:49.

are myriad other choices the government could have taken. Iain

:25:50.:25:53.

Duncan Smith today I think has been very honest in explaining how George

:25:54.:25:56.

Osborne could have taken different choices, should have done, and in

:25:57.:26:00.

his words he is dividing Britain, moving away from any notion of us

:26:01.:26:14.

all being in it together. But you are committed to balancing current

:26:15.:26:17.

spending, but if you have ring fenced pensions, as you have told us

:26:18.:26:22.

this morning, presumably you would ring fence the NHS, or even add to

:26:23.:26:27.

spending in the NHS, and you want to ring fence nearly all of welfare as

:26:28.:26:33.

well. Where do the cuts come from the balance current spending? I have

:26:34.:26:40.

just given you two, let's be very specific, Labour would be saying

:26:41.:26:43.

today if it were our budget, that we would not have done the cuts to

:26:44.:26:48.

corporation tax, that would have given us in year ?600 million, and

:26:49.:26:52.

we would not have done the cut to capital gains tax, that would give

:26:53.:26:57.

us another ?600 million. That nets off the PIP cuts annually, the ?1.2

:26:58.:27:02.

billion, and there are other similar choices we could look at. We would

:27:03.:27:06.

not have taken corporation tax back to 19%. We would have been taking

:27:07.:27:11.

far more from large multinational companies than this government is.

:27:12.:27:15.

So far you have given me 1.2 billion, but you have announced much

:27:16.:27:20.

more than that in spending plans. So I am not quite clear how it is you

:27:21.:27:23.

would balance current spending, because I think we can both agree an

:27:24.:27:28.

extra 1.2 billion went to do it, will it? No, but a corporation tax

:27:29.:27:35.

alone by 2020 would be giving us ?2.5 billion, if we were to revert

:27:36.:27:43.

back to the April 2015 rate of 20%. We would still have a corporation

:27:44.:27:48.

tax in this country that was 10% lower than Germany, 15% lower than

:27:49.:27:52.

America, 10% lower than Australia. It would be an extremely competitive

:27:53.:27:59.

rate of tax. I just highlight that ?1 billion example, ?3 billion

:28:00.:28:01.

example, how we would make different choices. Right, but as I say, in

:28:02.:28:07.

many of your spending plans you have already spent that sort of money.

:28:08.:28:11.

You also talk about fair taxes, you would not cut the corporation tax

:28:12.:28:16.

any further, what else to you mean by fair taxes? What would you raise

:28:17.:28:23.

by fair taxes? As I said a minute ago, we can't for years out from a

:28:24.:28:29.

budget before, a pre-election budget from Labour, tell you precisely what

:28:30.:28:32.

all of our spending plans will be, I don't think that is a reasonable

:28:33.:28:35.

thing to ask any opposition government to do but I think we are

:28:36.:28:40.

setting very clear indicators about what we think the benefits would be.

:28:41.:28:54.

Give us another example. It is reflective of our belief that those

:28:55.:28:57.

who have the largest amounts of money ought to bear the largest

:28:58.:29:04.

burden in our society. It is unclear whether that raises you very much.

:29:05.:29:11.

The government's own analysis showed there was ?3 billion forgone in

:29:12.:29:14.

cutting that top rate of tax. I now see they are trying to argue they

:29:15.:29:19.

have somehow applied a famous curve and ?8 billion they have made. I

:29:20.:29:25.

think corporation tax shows you very clearly, corporation tax receipts

:29:26.:29:28.

have been flat, they have managed to cut from 28% to 20% in the last six

:29:29.:29:33.

years, and the amount of receipts we are getting in has gone from 43

:29:34.:29:40.

billion to 43 billion. Investment has decreased.

:29:41.:29:46.

What are used to call sickness benefit comes to over 50 billion

:29:47.:29:52.

pounds a year. You would leave it untouched? No, we want to reform the

:29:53.:29:58.

system. Take for example, Iain Duncan Smith made a lot about

:29:59.:30:02.

universal credit this morning. He has said George Osborne has stripped

:30:03.:30:08.

out the guts of universal credit. I was asking about disability? Some

:30:09.:30:13.

people who are disabled will be in receipt of universal credit. What

:30:14.:30:19.

would you do about the disability 50 billion pounds annual budget? We

:30:20.:30:27.

wouldn't be making the changes the current government are proposing.

:30:28.:30:29.

They are lying to the British public about this, spending on the disabled

:30:30.:30:39.

is increasing. If you take all disability benefits, I am publishing

:30:40.:30:43.

figures today that say it has declined around 60% that the

:30:44.:30:48.

government have already cut disabled benefits. -- 6%. That will not be my

:30:49.:30:55.

target. Would you keep this increase in the threshold for people who

:30:56.:30:59.

enter the 40% tax bracket? Yes, we would keep that. It is fair to say

:31:00.:31:05.

the fiscal drag of people being pulled into the 40p rate has been

:31:06.:31:11.

increasing. I think we will need to reform taxation much more

:31:12.:31:14.

fundamentally. I still think the key thing today is we have got to

:31:15.:31:19.

understand George Osborne is the man in the dock. I am going to have to

:31:20.:31:24.

stop you there. We look forward to talking to you in the future about

:31:25.:31:30.

your plans for tax reform. Now let's go to the Conservative MP who has

:31:31.:31:36.

spearheaded the back bench opposition to George Osborne's tax

:31:37.:31:45.

cuts. Was a Iain Duncan Smith right to resign? He was coming he had

:31:46.:31:50.

reached a point where he had had enough of the purse strings being

:31:51.:31:55.

pulled so he couldn't deliver the welfare reform he wanted to. He had

:31:56.:31:59.

no option. Mr Cameron says he is puzzled by the resignation and the

:32:00.:32:05.

position of the government on these welfare reforms and cuts had been

:32:06.:32:11.

collectively agreed. I am learning, I am still a relatively new MP. You

:32:12.:32:18.

can keep your powder dry for so long, you are convinced by the whips

:32:19.:32:22.

that this is the right thing to do. Your conscience will kick in, it did

:32:23.:32:28.

for me last year over tax credits. The rumblings are more open this

:32:29.:32:32.

year than they were last year over tax credits. Iain Duncan Smith

:32:33.:32:37.

looked around him and saw many MP is saying how unhappy they were and he

:32:38.:32:40.

couldn't proceed any longer. Would you have been one of the rebels if

:32:41.:32:44.

the government had proceeded with what was in

:32:45.:32:54.

the government had proceeded with the years has presided over a number

:32:55.:33:02.

of cuts to welfare. Now he is resigning

:33:03.:33:04.

of cuts to welfare. Now he is going to happen,

:33:05.:33:12.

of cuts to welfare. Now he is The first thing to say, I cannot

:33:13.:33:16.

of cuts to welfare. Now he is happened. I have had no letter or

:33:17.:33:18.

e-mail coming from the Treasury saying we

:33:19.:33:21.

e-mail coming from the Treasury again. A lot of what has been cut

:33:22.:33:28.

from Iain Duncan Smith's point of view, so the tax credit taper rate,

:33:29.:33:36.

universal taper rate, PIP, it has been coming thick and fast. He has

:33:37.:33:40.

had to deliver what it was revolutionary welfare reforms. He

:33:41.:33:45.

wanted to do them the right way. Everything I talked about in my

:33:46.:33:50.

maiden speech about doing it gently and allowing the minimum wage to

:33:51.:33:56.

rise. The Treasury whole the purse strings and they stopped him

:33:57.:33:58.

delivering the policies the way he wanted to.

:33:59.:33:59.

delivering the policies the way he tax credits, which was a move

:34:00.:34:03.

delivering the policies the way he take away some welfare benefits from

:34:04.:34:07.

delivering the policies the way he the working poor, is it not puzzling

:34:08.:34:11.

the Chancellor then moved in to an even more difficult group to deal

:34:12.:34:17.

with, in terms of taking things away, into the disabled and seem to

:34:18.:34:21.

have learned nothing from the tax credit U turn? I guess we will see

:34:22.:34:31.

in the days and weeks to come. It is not just PIP, you will remember the

:34:32.:34:34.

extra payment given to claimants who not just PIP, you will remember the

:34:35.:34:40.

had been ill for a long time and were returning to work. I voted

:34:41.:34:43.

against that also. I hope Stephen Crabb, the new Secretary of State

:34:44.:34:46.

will have a conversation with the Treasury and this will be brought to

:34:47.:34:50.

the table. We have made some poor decisions. Some of the areas of

:34:51.:34:54.

taxation we have opted for instead, are wrong. It doesn't send the right

:34:55.:34:59.

message that as a Conservative Party we can look after everybody in

:35:00.:35:03.

society. It is only the Conservatives who can, because we do

:35:04.:35:06.

need the strong economy to deliver any of this. But it has got to come

:35:07.:35:13.

back to the table and we have got to start again. Is it your view it

:35:14.:35:17.

wouldn't be enough just to tinker with what the government was

:35:18.:35:19.

planning to do with the personal mobility independent payments and do

:35:20.:35:24.

what it did with tax credits, which was to scrap what it was planning to

:35:25.:35:32.

do and start again? I have spoken to a lot of disability charities. I am

:35:33.:35:39.

putting myself through and Mark PIP assessment because I want to feel

:35:40.:35:44.

what it is like. It just doesn't work that so many groups of ill and

:35:45.:35:50.

disabled people. Tinkering with two tiny point isn't good enough. We

:35:51.:35:53.

need to look at the whole process and start from scratch and work with

:35:54.:35:59.

these charities, who understand the pressures put on these people so we

:36:00.:36:03.

have a system that works for them. Your party is in open warfare this

:36:04.:36:08.

morning, you have a resignation and people are referring to you as the

:36:09.:36:12.

nasty party. How big a crisis is this for the Conservatives? I have

:36:13.:36:18.

been thinking about this this morning. I am trying to keep my own

:36:19.:36:26.

wooden spoon in my kitchen drawer. I think, in a funny sort of way,

:36:27.:36:31.

because there has been so much focus on the EU, this might lead the sense

:36:32.:36:36.

check we need. All MPs are good people trying to do the best they

:36:37.:36:41.

can. This could be the slap to the face we all need that says hang on,

:36:42.:36:45.

get back together and sort ourselves out. We are the party that should be

:36:46.:36:50.

looking after people. In fact, I think it could bring us together. If

:36:51.:36:55.

you are to be brought together for a fresh start from tax credit to

:36:56.:37:00.

disability payments, is George Osborne still the right Chancellor

:37:01.:37:04.

to do it? It depends how he responds to the challenge. I am hoping so.

:37:05.:37:15.

The jury is still out? Yes. Are his chances to be Prime Minister below

:37:16.:37:22.

the water line? Sometimes the strength of a man is how he picks

:37:23.:37:27.

himself up from a fall. So let's see how he responds. If this is

:37:28.:37:32.

attempted to be brushed under the carpet, I think his chances are

:37:33.:37:36.

over. If he lets himself up and shows he is listening, making

:37:37.:37:40.

mistakes is OK, providing you correct them before they affect

:37:41.:37:44.

people. He did that with tax credits. Some ways it was a big

:37:45.:37:48.

thing because it would have affected millions and millions of people. But

:37:49.:37:54.

we need to wait and see what he is going to do with this. Your wooden

:37:55.:37:59.

spoon is always welcome on this programme.

:38:00.:38:05.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:38:06.:38:14.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:38:15.:38:17.

100 years on from the Easter Rising, the effects of that rebellion

:38:18.:38:20.

are still being felt in the form of a threat from dissidents.

:38:21.:38:24.

I'll be asking the Justice Minister, David Ford, for his assessment.

:38:25.:38:28.

And rebellion at Westminster over disability benefits.

:38:29.:38:31.

How might changes hit claimants here?

:38:32.:38:41.

Algae asking a leading benefits expert to explain.

:38:42.:38:44.

And with their thoughts throughout, I'm joined by Brian Feeney

:38:45.:38:47.

In one week's time, the centenary of the Easter Rising will be

:38:48.:38:52.

commemorated in an official ceremony in Dublin.

:38:53.:38:54.

Dignitaries from across the island have been invited to

:38:55.:38:56.

However, the centenary has also prompted concerns that dissident

:38:57.:39:00.

republicans will intensify their violence, as we've already

:39:01.:39:03.

seen with the murder of prison officer Adrian Ismay.

:39:04.:39:07.

With me now is the Justice Minister, David Ford.

:39:08.:39:13.

How concerned are you that the dissidents will strike again

:39:14.:39:15.

Since I became ministers six years ago, the threat has always been

:39:16.:39:27.

severe against police and prison officers, so in that sense, it is

:39:28.:39:31.

not particularly different. But we do know certain people hang things

:39:32.:39:35.

on anniversaries and those are a particular concern for the next week

:39:36.:39:36.

or so. How could you ever manage

:39:37.:39:37.

to persuade people who feel they are carrying on in

:39:38.:39:39.

the footsteps of the 1916 rebels that, a century on,

:39:40.:39:42.

they've got it badly wrong? I'm not sure it is possible to

:39:43.:39:52.

dissuade those who continued those actions. What we saw on Good Friday

:39:53.:39:57.

1998 was a fairly significant number of those who previously supported

:39:58.:39:59.

file and action against the state ends that. It has been messy and

:40:00.:40:06.

edgy, but we have seen the great majority of Republicans except the

:40:07.:40:10.

arrangements from Good Friday. But small numbers did not. They seem to

:40:11.:40:15.

be more welded to the struggle than any possible outcome. It is

:40:16.:40:19.

absolutely clear that the actions coming out, including murderers,

:40:20.:40:22.

make no difference to the way Northern Ireland has run and a make

:40:23.:40:25.

no difference to the constitutional arrangement with the UK and Ireland

:40:26.:40:29.

and are simply causing terror and threat and anguish. In the meantime,

:40:30.:40:36.

it looks as if prison officers in particular are vulnerable in our

:40:37.:40:41.

society. Prison and police officers are under particular threat. There

:40:42.:40:45.

is no doubt that will continue to be the case if dissident is continue to

:40:46.:40:49.

pose those kind of threats and continue to carry on in the way they

:40:50.:40:54.

are doing. There is a particular concern, and the prison service does

:40:55.:40:58.

what it can to assist people in providing protection to homes. Is

:40:59.:41:03.

enough being done or should more be done, given what the threat is?

:41:04.:41:07.

Bill-mac I see a very significant effort put in to provide that level

:41:08.:41:13.

of protection. But clearly that also relies on individuals and how they

:41:14.:41:17.

look after themselves. It can never be 100% guaranteed.

:41:18.:41:18.

How do you think Easter 1916 should be marked?

:41:19.:41:24.

I think it is interesting when you see marked. What we see are some

:41:25.:41:30.

people wanting to celebrate and others wanting to mark. I have

:41:31.:41:35.

received an invitation to go to O'Connell Street on Easter Sunday,

:41:36.:41:39.

which I have declined. I explained when I wrote back I did not think it

:41:40.:41:43.

was appropriate for somebody in my decision to take part in a ceremony

:41:44.:41:48.

which was directly linked to that particular act of violence. Just the

:41:49.:41:52.

same as I took no part in any celebration for the Ulster covenant

:41:53.:41:55.

three years ago, even though my grandfather was one of many

:41:56.:41:58.

thousands of people who signed it. I do think it is appropriate we use

:41:59.:42:03.

this as a time for reflection. There are other events over the next few

:42:04.:42:04.

weeks which I will which take a more rounded approach.

:42:05.:42:08.

We talk about the journey from which take a more rounded approach.

:42:09.:42:13.

rebellion to reconciliation. It is entirely appropriate we

:42:14.:42:14.

rebellion to reconciliation. It is that. We should recognise the

:42:15.:42:19.

rebellion to reconciliation. It is relationships which has existed

:42:20.:42:22.

rebellion to reconciliation. It is the last 18 years. Are you

:42:23.:42:27.

rebellion to reconciliation. It is the formal event on the day itself

:42:28.:42:27.

in Dublin the formal event on the day itself

:42:28.:42:37.

complexity of what happened 100 years ago, so much so

:42:38.:42:45.

be uncomfortable being there? I would be uncomfortable at an event

:42:46.:42:47.

like that. I have no problem recognising what happened on the

:42:48.:42:49.

whole issue of the ways relationships have

:42:50.:42:51.

whole issue of the ways was an invitation to attend a

:42:52.:42:56.

centenary Celbridge in the First World War, you can see that as a

:42:57.:42:59.

movement into a democracy. My problem is that people who murdered

:43:00.:43:06.

Adrian Ismay, the people who murdered David Black and others, the

:43:07.:43:08.

people who murdered the two officers, would all claim to be the

:43:09.:43:13.

direct inheritors of Easter 1916 and I cannot associate myself with that.

:43:14.:43:21.

Some people equate Easter 1916 with the Battle of the Somme in terms of

:43:22.:43:26.

historical significance. If you would feel uncomfortable formerly

:43:27.:43:30.

commemorating Easter 1916, would you be comfortable formerly

:43:31.:43:37.

commemorating the Battle of the Somme? You save some people

:43:38.:43:40.

associate them and I do not think that is true. There is no

:43:41.:43:44.

equivalence. Ten years ago, I attended the ceremony which the

:43:45.:43:45.

Irish state attended the ceremony which the

:43:46.:43:51.

of the Battle of the Somme, marked the sacrifice of many thousands of

:43:52.:43:56.

Irishmen, North and south. I think that is very different. Frankly,

:43:57.:44:01.

some of these events... Looking at the Easter Rising, it's as if only

:44:02.:44:05.

those who bid involved for those who were engaged in

:44:06.:44:08.

those who bid involved for those who to civilians, police also, never

:44:09.:44:12.

made British soldiers. It is certainly a complex issue.

:44:13.:44:13.

The Attorney General, John Larkin, has said the Easter Rising

:44:14.:44:15.

was profoundly wrong and undemocratic.

:44:16.:44:16.

I think all the evidence at the time, until the point when the

:44:17.:44:27.

British general ordered executions, I think all the evidence was

:44:28.:44:30.

regarded as undemocratic by the great

:44:31.:44:31.

regarded as undemocratic by the whatever part of Ireland they came

:44:32.:44:34.

from, whether nationalist or unionist. The question that needs to

:44:35.:44:42.

be asked, and I am interested to hear your answer.

:44:43.:44:44.

Are you uncomfortable with elected politicians in the Republic,

:44:45.:44:46.

representing a 21st-century western democracy, celebrating an armed

:44:47.:44:48.

I think there is a problem if you celebrate the insurrection in a way

:44:49.:45:04.

which doesn't mark all the events associated with it. And it does seem

:45:05.:45:08.

to be that some of the event is being run are celebrating the rising

:45:09.:45:14.

rather than looking at the totality of relationships. I can accept there

:45:15.:45:18.

are lots of complexities. Three years ago, the Queen stood and bowed

:45:19.:45:23.

her head before a monument, so I can accept that there has been a

:45:24.:45:28.

significant degree of reconciliation between the two islands, between

:45:29.:45:32.

North and south as well. But I think there is real difficulty if the

:45:33.:45:36.

state is putting a very significant part of its effort into marking the

:45:37.:45:41.

efforts of those who engaged in violence when there was a

:45:42.:45:44.

democratically available, contrary to the wishes of the vast majority

:45:45.:45:55.

of Irish people, and doesn't actually recognise in some of the

:45:56.:45:58.

key events, the totality of what happened and the totality of

:45:59.:46:00.

suffering. Have you formally committed to taking part in any

:46:01.:46:05.

events which will mark that? Yes, there are a couple of events coming

:46:06.:46:10.

up on the two weekends after Easter. There is an issue of the opening of

:46:11.:46:20.

the war memorial. There are a variety of issues which seemed to be

:46:21.:46:26.

looking at the totality of what happened rather than celebrating the

:46:27.:46:30.

specific act. What actually happened on Easter Monday in the month of

:46:31.:46:34.

April, and not Easter Sunday, on the month of March. You're coming to the

:46:35.:46:39.

end of your time as Justice Minister. You will not upload your

:46:40.:46:43.

name to go forward for the position in the new mandate. What do you

:46:44.:46:47.

regard as the successes of your six years in charge? I said in my party

:46:48.:46:52.

conference speech a couple of weeks ago that I thought we had seen more

:46:53.:46:56.

reform in the last six years than any previous 16 or possibly 26. I

:46:57.:47:02.

believe that is true. Issues like prison reform and youth justice

:47:03.:47:05.

reform, issues of legal aid reform, which simply left to withdraw. That

:47:06.:47:12.

has now been tackled. We have seen huge changes and there is a lot to

:47:13.:47:16.

be done, particularly around prisons, but what I was able to do

:47:17.:47:20.

is announce the later stage of the study relating to youth justice and

:47:21.:47:25.

get massive agreement around the Chamber on almost everything on how

:47:26.:47:28.

we stop young people getting sucked into a culture of criminality and

:47:29.:47:33.

how we get them out of the system at the earliest possible stage. That is

:47:34.:47:36.

a very different situation from the political views six years ago. It

:47:37.:47:40.

has not all been a success. If you could put a finger on your key

:47:41.:47:44.

failings, what would they be? Come on, mobility vision will do that. I

:47:45.:47:50.

might say I regret that so much takes so long, because we have

:47:51.:47:54.

lengthy consultation processes. We have not moved as fast as we would

:47:55.:47:58.

have wished on some of those reforms. I think those are the kind

:47:59.:48:02.

of problems you see. But what I think we have done is set the tone

:48:03.:48:08.

for saying justice has actually been operated successfully for six years

:48:09.:48:13.

and will continue to be a part of devolution. The pace is the problem,

:48:14.:48:18.

but the reality is the successful stop but we are not yet ready for a

:48:19.:48:22.

DUP or Sinn Fein Justice Minister? The minister will have to be

:48:23.:48:27.

elected, but I get the impression that some people are still looking

:48:28.:48:30.

to Alliance. Thank you very much indeed for joining us for now.

:48:31.:48:32.

Let's see what our guests make of it, Brian Feeney and Felicity

:48:33.:48:35.

Brian, let's talk about 1916 first of all. It is hugely complex. What

:48:36.:48:46.

do you make of what David Ford has just said and the distinctions he

:48:47.:48:52.

has brought out? It is making it over complicated. The reason it has

:48:53.:48:56.

been marked and celebrated, whatever, on Easter Sunday and

:48:57.:49:01.

Easter Monday. And I was there on Easter Monday making a speech on the

:49:02.:49:04.

forecourt, along with other people... It is the origins of the

:49:05.:49:12.

state and it is a bit pious to produce modern ideas about democracy

:49:13.:49:15.

and freedom and all the rest of it and exported them back one century.

:49:16.:49:20.

The United States celebrates an armed resurrection against Britain,

:49:21.:49:26.

1775-1776 full stop they are happy to do that. There are massive

:49:27.:49:30.

bicentennial celebrations that cost hundreds of millions of dollars. All

:49:31.:49:35.

over the world, could have state 's which threw off empires at the

:49:36.:49:41.

beginning of the 20th century. And they all celebrate getting rid of

:49:42.:49:45.

the empires, whether it is the British, French, the Austrian

:49:46.:49:49.

Empire. There was actually a lot of support in Ireland for the

:49:50.:49:53.

Bulgarians trying to overthrow the Turks and the Russians at exactly

:49:54.:49:58.

the same time. So when the Attorney General John Larkin says that

:49:59.:50:00.

looking at 1916, you have individuals of huge moral worth and

:50:01.:50:04.

capable of self-sacrifice, doing something that was profoundly wrong.

:50:05.:50:10.

You disagree? Quite often, the Attorney General is profoundly

:50:11.:50:15.

wrong, but never in doubt. Sorry expat I would be very curious to see

:50:16.:50:19.

if Brian get a letter in the post tomorrow from the Attorney General's

:50:20.:50:23.

Office for that. The thing I have found fascinating about the 1916 and

:50:24.:50:29.

all the fuss is I have learned a lot. I knew all about the causes of

:50:30.:50:33.

the First World War in school, more than 1916 and the rising. I just

:50:34.:50:37.

knew something had happened in Dublin. The British had, as usual,

:50:38.:50:42.

mishandled, and the outcome of that was the Irish free State. Now that

:50:43.:50:46.

you know, would you become double going along as Brian's guest to take

:50:47.:50:50.

part in those celebrations next week and? I would be curious to go along.

:50:51.:50:56.

I would see as being something that I didn't understand much of. But you

:50:57.:51:00.

do not feel threatened by it? It is so long ago and there has been such

:51:01.:51:03.

a change in our relationship with the Irish Republic that what is

:51:04.:51:07.

happening this time around will be different, I hope, from what

:51:08.:51:12.

happened in 1966. You have got a willing guest. Very quickly, what

:51:13.:51:15.

about the fact, and this is a serious point, that there are some

:51:16.:51:20.

people who still use what happened 100 years ago as a reason for what

:51:21.:51:24.

they see as unfinished business today? That is right, and they try

:51:25.:51:30.

to use what happened in 1916 to legitimise their actions today. But

:51:31.:51:34.

they are a tiny minority. They have no support and cannot get anyone

:51:35.:51:38.

elected, and actually, no one knows what they want. It is not a case of

:51:39.:51:42.

saying they want a united Ireland. No one knows what they want. We will

:51:43.:51:46.

talk to you again very shortly. Thank you both for now.

:51:47.:51:49.

The resignation of Ian Duncan Smith from the Cabinet has ensured that

:51:50.:51:52.

planned changes to disability benefits are going to stay

:51:53.:51:54.

Mr Duncan Smith says the changes are unfair,

:51:55.:51:57.

but his opponents say he's standing down because he wants Britain

:51:58.:52:00.

Here he is explaining to Andrew Marr this morning why he resigned.

:52:01.:52:04.

Pressure began to grow because this pressure was about the budget and

:52:05.:52:11.

the problem over the revised figures for the Budget. What worried and

:52:12.:52:15.

concerned me was we then came under pressure to put the consultation out

:52:16.:52:19.

and respond to it before the Budget, and I always hoped we would do that

:52:20.:52:24.

afterwards so as not get caught up in the Budget. This was supposed to

:52:25.:52:27.

be part of the process in the category can best aid those in need.

:52:28.:52:32.

And that pressure really was to get out a definitive definitive answer

:52:33.:52:37.

only consultation. There were lots of arguments and debates about that.

:52:38.:52:40.

Downing Street and the Treasury wanted the extensive set of changes.

:52:41.:52:45.

We argued first of all for no change at this point. And we wanted to

:52:46.:52:49.

ensure that if we did, we wanted a smaller level of change, but most

:52:50.:52:52.

importantly, to continue the dialogue and not have a fixed point.

:52:53.:52:55.

So how will the proposed benefits changes, which are designed

:52:56.:52:57.

to save ?4 billion, affect people here, especially given our previous

:52:58.:53:00.

With me now is the benefits expert, Professor Eileen Evason.

:53:01.:53:09.

Welcome to you. Thank you for being here. It does seem to be

:53:10.:53:14.

unbelievably complicated. What do you make of the row that has never

:53:15.:53:17.

engulfed the Government after Mr Duncan Smith's sudden departure? It

:53:18.:53:21.

is very confusing. In Northern Ireland we do have a strategy from

:53:22.:53:26.

energy on welfare reform. On Wednesday, I thought we might have

:53:27.:53:29.

to go back and crunch the numbers. We would have to check if that was

:53:30.:53:33.

robust enough to take the changes proposed by the Government. What

:53:34.:53:38.

they were doing was PIP, we benefit that has replaced the older one for

:53:39.:53:41.

those of working age. We must have certain points to qualify. They want

:53:42.:53:45.

to adjust the systems will people scored fewer points and get less

:53:46.:53:49.

benefit or might fall out of benefit altogether. We have to look at that

:53:50.:53:53.

and see if we can accommodate that. But we are two years behind the

:53:54.:53:57.

situation. There might be a case of defending that because we are a

:53:58.:54:01.

different state. However, as I was thinking that, the whole thing

:54:02.:54:12.

seemed to fall to pieces. Initially, had a number of Conservative MPs

:54:13.:54:14.

unhappy about it. It doesn't look nice to be seen to be cutting

:54:15.:54:16.

benefits for vulnerable or disabled people. At the same time giving tax

:54:17.:54:20.

cuts to those who are better off. We had Ian Duncan Smith's resignation

:54:21.:54:25.

after that. This is added confusion. To say that he is resigning because

:54:26.:54:29.

he is not happy about the fact George Osborne is being nasty to

:54:30.:54:32.

people on disabilities and cutting their benefits is frankly... It is a

:54:33.:54:40.

laugh. He has presided over numerous cuts and things that have made

:54:41.:54:43.

people's lives, if they are disabled, much more difficult. That

:54:44.:54:47.

is why it is so hard to get welfare reform sorted here. People were

:54:48.:54:50.

watching what was happening there and were alarmed. So you have

:54:51.:54:53.

suspicions about his reasons were leaving in the first place? I think

:54:54.:54:57.

it may be tied up in the issue of the EU. He was to be fighting for

:54:58.:55:06.

Brexit. Alongside that, he has tried to do damage to Cameron and Osborne.

:55:07.:55:09.

Maybe he has worked out that Osborne is not going to take over from

:55:10.:55:12.

Cameron. The person who may do so is Boris Johnson. I think there is a

:55:13.:55:16.

whole lot going on. Unfortunately, this is not about benefits, I

:55:17.:55:21.

suspect, and we be dragged into a much broader issue. Ian Duncan Smith

:55:22.:55:24.

denies it has anything to do with the EU, but some say he would say

:55:25.:55:28.

that. The shadow secretary made an interesting point. You have said

:55:29.:55:31.

this is about real people and real issues. In terms of them surviving.

:55:32.:55:38.

He said he suspects Mr Osborne plays politics with the lives of

:55:39.:55:42.

vulnerable people. Is that what this is about? Yes, I remember when I was

:55:43.:55:48.

doing interviews in 2010, 2011, we got to grips with the volume of cuts

:55:49.:55:52.

announced by the coalition, mainly the Conservative Government, and

:55:53.:55:54.

that concern was that the difficulty with deficit was caused by the

:55:55.:56:01.

bankers. We could not understand why the cost of clearing up that mess

:56:02.:56:04.

should fall under people in the bottom half of our society.

:56:05.:56:09.

Osborne's strategy was either about dealing with the deficit or it was

:56:10.:56:14.

about a cover for an agenda to shrink the state. If we see what has

:56:15.:56:19.

happened to local government and benefits, there is a suspicion that

:56:20.:56:22.

is what it has been about. But real people have been damaged by this.

:56:23.:56:26.

And real people watching this may be do not know what is happening. And

:56:27.:56:30.

you wonder if members of the Cabinet know quite what is happening. It

:56:31.:56:34.

does seem that the changes were announced in the Budget for what...

:56:35.:56:41.

Ian Duncan Smith resign. The issue on which he resigned has now been

:56:42.:56:47.

kicked into the long grass. We do not know precisely what that means.

:56:48.:56:54.

I think we have gone from... Nicky Morgan on question Time said the

:56:55.:57:00.

cuts were under question. Then we had someone yesterday saying this is

:57:01.:57:04.

now about consultation and discussion. I think what they want

:57:05.:57:08.

to do is get the issue of the table until after the referendum, then of

:57:09.:57:13.

course they will come back. But we have a number of Conservative MPs

:57:14.:57:16.

who were not happy about tax credit cuts. They are not happy about this.

:57:17.:57:21.

Maybe we will move into a new period of discussion. If it is an issue

:57:22.:57:24.

that will be kicked down the street until after the referendum, it may

:57:25.:57:28.

well come back and you could have to sit down and crunch numbers again

:57:29.:57:32.

and look to see whether the mitigation here in Northern Ireland

:57:33.:57:36.

meets that. Is that a possibility? It is, but I think we will do it

:57:37.:57:41.

calmly. We rushed things last year. The things went down the first time

:57:42.:57:45.

because people rushed in front of microphones and got themselves

:57:46.:57:49.

confused. Steady as we go, we have got a strategy, we will look at it

:57:50.:57:53.

to see if we can cope. I think we might be able to do so. We might

:57:54.:57:57.

have to delay the change because we are farther back than we are in

:57:58.:58:02.

Great Britain, sought a different point in the process. But let's do

:58:03.:58:06.

it calmly. Thank you very much for coming in to join us.

:58:07.:58:07.

Let's take a look back at the week gone past

:58:08.:58:10.

The first and Deputy First Minister were in the US for... When news

:58:11.:58:22.

reached them the death of police officer Adrian Ismay. We are here to

:58:23.:58:26.

talk about Northern Ireland. I am personally devastated to hear the

:58:27.:58:31.

news. We are trying to move forward and build a better future. There are

:58:32.:58:35.

tripping continued including a meeting with President Obama, but

:58:36.:58:38.

Gerry Adams was excluded from a White House reception. I was not

:58:39.:58:44.

invited, and it is bad manners. It is not a good way to treat guests.

:58:45.:58:49.

As thousands gathered to celebrate in public, celebrations in the holy

:58:50.:58:52.

land area of south Belfast turned sour. We have been far too lenient

:58:53.:58:59.

in the past. Life there is an utter misery. It is a high octane mix.

:59:00.:59:05.

Long periods of drinking. And with an election looming, it was time to

:59:06.:59:10.

say goodbye to some old faces at Stormont. It was a pleasure to know

:59:11.:59:14.

each and every one of you. Thank you very much.

:59:15.:59:14.

APPLAUSE Let's have a final word

:59:15.:59:19.

from Brian and Felicity. Whether you agree with what Eileen

:59:20.:59:34.

Evason is analysis or not, it is a bit shambolic in terms of the

:59:35.:59:37.

Government's position on welfare, isn't it? It is dreadful. It is an

:59:38.:59:46.

episode of The Effect Of It. Cameron Sward down the phone, so they say.

:59:47.:59:50.

It is dreadful, no way to run a Government. It is not about Brexit.

:59:51.:59:56.

Brexit is different, it is not about that. Ian Duncan Smith was free to

:59:57.:59:59.

say what he wanted about that. He did not need to make the stand to go

:00:00.:00:02.

out and campaign for what he believes about Europe. I think it is

:00:03.:00:06.

much more about Osborne and his relationship with other big beasts

:00:07.:00:10.

in the party. What do you think of where we are? Can you pick any

:00:11.:00:15.

logical path through this, Brian? First of all, there is a

:00:16.:00:19.

relationship between Ian Duncan Smith and George Osborne which has

:00:20.:00:23.

been terribly bad since 2010, but there is certainly an element of the

:00:24.:00:28.

referendum in it. There is no doubt that Ian Duncan Smith and close

:00:29.:00:31.

associates of hers have been saying he has been looking for a pretext of

:00:32.:00:35.

designing for several months because of his opposition to being in

:00:36.:00:42.

Europe. He described the official Government position as a dodgy

:00:43.:00:48.

dossier. Having said that,... Furthermore, he has carried out some

:00:49.:00:51.

of the worst reforms in the last six years, the benefits cap, the bedroom

:00:52.:00:55.

tax, he has been attacking people with disabilities for six years, and

:00:56.:00:59.

finally to decide he has got a conscience is surprising. OK, it is

:01:00.:01:03.

a fascinating situation and we will have lots more value out of it in

:01:04.:01:04.

That's it. Now, back to Andrew in London.

:01:05.:01:09.

extra cash. -- onto the consumers will stop

:01:10.:01:11.

My thanks to Diane Abbott and to Justine Greening.

:01:12.:01:15.

government back together after Iain government back together after Iain

:01:16.:01:28.

Duncan Smith's resignation? What happens to George Osborne's budget

:01:29.:01:32.

plans and what will the impact of all this be on the EU referendum

:01:33.:01:33.

campaign? So where does it go from here? I

:01:34.:01:47.

would suggest it gets worse for the Tories long before it gets better.

:01:48.:01:52.

Yes, I think one thing David Cameron and George Osborne might want to

:01:53.:01:56.

think carefully about is how they manage Iain Duncan Smith, and the

:01:57.:01:59.

pretty hostile briefing against him is only going to increase his ire.

:02:00.:02:06.

They should not forget that he has quite an important weapon, the

:02:07.:02:11.

private conversation with primers to's office in recent weeks, which

:02:12.:02:15.

show that the Prime Minister wanted to much, much further than Iain

:02:16.:02:18.

Duncan Smith was willing to go. When they say these were your ideas, why

:02:19.:02:24.

is it a problem, Iain Duncan Smith's argument is yes, these were my

:02:25.:02:28.

ideas, but they were part of a long-term sustainable plan. They

:02:29.:02:32.

were not about giving you, George Osborne, money to cut taxes for the

:02:33.:02:35.

wealthy, which is what he did in capital gains tax. So I think they

:02:36.:02:39.

probably need to handle Iain Duncan Smith with care because he could be

:02:40.:02:42.

dangerous for them if he really is on the loose.

:02:43.:02:46.

Is clear It already for every person in Downing Street is briefing to

:02:47.:02:55.

have a go at Iain Duncan Smith, there is someone ready to have a go

:02:56.:02:59.

at Mr Cameron and the government? I cannot remember a time since David

:03:00.:03:04.

Cameron became leader of the Conservative Party that discipline

:03:05.:03:08.

has broken down as it has in the last 48 hours. It is hard to see how

:03:09.:03:13.

he brings discipline back in before the referendum. His powers of

:03:14.:03:19.

patronage is limited, he doesn't want a big reshuffle before the

:03:20.:03:23.

referendum, he wants to wait. There is a feeling of open season. Is he

:03:24.:03:37.

on his way out? It is not in Brexit's interest to whip this up.

:03:38.:03:44.

People will worry what a big leap it is into the unknown if we leave. If

:03:45.:03:50.

they think we are voting for a total change of government and Prime

:03:51.:03:54.

Minister, it puts the stakes of even higher. We might see believe

:03:55.:03:59.

campaign's dumping this down a little bit. The Chancellor, now

:04:00.:04:06.

among the walking wounded, has a budget to get to the House of

:04:07.:04:09.

Commons which deals through money matters. He needs a vote to cut the

:04:10.:04:15.

capital gains tax, cut corporation tax, raise the threshold for the 40%

:04:16.:04:21.

taxpayers. There is a danger with rebellion in the air and the Tory

:04:22.:04:25.

back benches rebel against one thing, as they do on disability,

:04:26.:04:31.

they could rebel on other things? I think he has two problems, the

:04:32.:04:35.

immediate is the legislated challenge of getting the CGT cut and

:04:36.:04:38.

the threshold raised and everything else through Parliament in the

:04:39.:04:42.

coming weeks and months. Then he has to find the money he has just lost

:04:43.:04:47.

by reversing on the disability benefit cut. He has already lost

:04:48.:04:51.

money from reversing the tax credit policy. Which is why he broke his

:04:52.:05:00.

welfare cap. Exactly. Even if he gets through this immediate

:05:01.:05:03.

challenge of getting the budget through Parliament, his central

:05:04.:05:06.

purpose as a politician is to close the deficit. He has made it harder

:05:07.:05:11.

for himself by reversing on some of these contentious measures. It's not

:05:12.:05:16.

as if the problem ends in a few weeks' time. Isn't it made worse by

:05:17.:05:22.

the fact this is taking place in the midst of the EU referendum campaign,

:05:23.:05:25.

which had already divided conservatives. It like pouring

:05:26.:05:30.

petrol on the flames? It is hard to see anything other than another four

:05:31.:05:37.

months of mayhem. We don't know what the results of the referendum will

:05:38.:05:41.

be. Probably a good deal of mayhem after that. It is interesting how

:05:42.:05:47.

quiet Boris Johnson has been. I understand he is away skiing, but we

:05:48.:05:52.

haven't heard from friends of his. Maybe the lines are bad to the Alps.

:05:53.:05:59.

It shows you how serious his team are, they are being smart and will

:06:00.:06:05.

not wade in. This has been a good weekend for Brexit, because their

:06:06.:06:11.

most high profile member of the Cabinet has resigned and appears to

:06:12.:06:16.

be a bit bullied, possibly by George Osborne. He speaks from the heart of

:06:17.:06:20.

this because he had this visit to Glasgow and got onto this issue. In

:06:21.:06:25.

that sense it is a good weekend the Brexit. But the problem for them,

:06:26.:06:30.

you need to be talking about the vision for the future of Britain.

:06:31.:06:34.

This is quite Westminster, inside. Brexit need to counter the main

:06:35.:06:39.

argument that they are the biggest risk. While there may be sympathy

:06:40.:06:43.

for Iain Duncan Smith, it is not getting on their argument. The two

:06:44.:06:47.

leading spokesman for the remain campaign on the conservative side

:06:48.:06:51.

the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. The Minister has a civil

:06:52.:06:55.

war on his hands and has to be careful he doesn't make it worse by

:06:56.:07:00.

some of the briefing Downing Street is behind. The second most important

:07:01.:07:06.

man is among the walking wounded. Why will people listen to him over

:07:07.:07:14.

the referendum. That is why it has been a good weekend for the Brexit.

:07:15.:07:20.

But the most political force in this country will make a big picture

:07:21.:07:22.

decision based on the big picture arguments of what is the safest

:07:23.:07:25.

option and what is the riskiest option. I am not sure this great

:07:26.:07:29.

excitement and eruptions in the Westminster village, I am not sure

:07:30.:07:32.

whether they massively register with the British people if they make a

:07:33.:07:38.

big decision are big issues. There is concern over the Conservative

:07:39.:07:44.

Party and their brands. They work so hard to detoxify themselves in the

:07:45.:07:48.

run-up to the last elections. It wasn't convincing, they were in

:07:49.:07:52.

coalition and now they have the smallest of majorities. Now it looks

:07:53.:07:59.

like they are the nasty party. At a time when the home strategy was to

:08:00.:08:05.

move to the centre ground? It hasn't worked. If I were a conservative

:08:06.:08:08.

strategist, I would concerned about the catastrophic damage to the

:08:09.:08:14.

party's brand. The Prime Minister keeps on making speeches, normally

:08:15.:08:20.

on Monday about the poor, about racial discrimination, about

:08:21.:08:22.

equality. All designed to position the Tories in the centre, even the

:08:23.:08:28.

centre-left ground, because they think Labour has left that. But they

:08:29.:08:34.

can come up with the tax credit fiasco and the disability fiasco.

:08:35.:08:38.

Who is running the show? It is hard to close the deficit once you have

:08:39.:08:42.

ring fence the NHS and everything else. But they make it difficult and

:08:43.:08:49.

provocative when they juxstapose a cut in tax credits, with raising the

:08:50.:08:54.

threshold of in terrorist -- inheritance tax last year. Capital

:08:55.:09:00.

gains tax this year. They have had to do it because it was in the

:09:01.:09:06.

manifesto, but it didn't have to be in the manifesto and it is that

:09:07.:09:10.

juxtaposition rather than the cost of welfare that appeared to be so

:09:11.:09:15.

incendiary. You say it has been a good weekend the Brexit, and the

:09:16.:09:20.

domestic back drop will exacerbate tensions between the remain and

:09:21.:09:23.

leave. But there is an international guy mentioned to this. The EU in

:09:24.:09:29.

Turkey have come to an agreement, I think it starts tonight. And here is

:09:30.:09:36.

a guess, I'd bet it starts to unravel within 24 hours? It is the

:09:37.:09:41.

sort of thing that looks good on paper. Refugees who come over arson

:09:42.:09:45.

back to Turkey and Syrian refugees are sent to Europe. Looks great on

:09:46.:09:51.

paper. These are people who have risked their lives, seen people

:09:52.:09:54.

drowned in the Aegean Sea. Lost family members. They make it to

:09:55.:10:00.

Greece and you are going to say to them, get back. And they say, fine,

:10:01.:10:06.

I will do that. It will be difficult to do. UN agencies are saying they

:10:07.:10:12.

are not sure if it is legal. You cannot treat a group of migrants as

:10:13.:10:16.

a group under the Geneva Convention, they have to be treated as

:10:17.:10:20.

individuals. But this treats them as a group. If you see more unpleasant

:10:21.:10:27.

scenes out of Greece, more of a sense the European Union just hasn't

:10:28.:10:32.

tackled this problem, that all adds to the leave campaign? Yes, it is a

:10:33.:10:41.

real source of alarm. The debate about Turkey and the possible

:10:42.:10:46.

prospect of Turkey, in the long-term, becoming part of the EU,

:10:47.:10:49.

is extremely toxic. The outer campaign will be seeking to exploit

:10:50.:10:56.

every inch of that debate. It has been a horrible week for the remain

:10:57.:11:03.

campaign, politically and strategically. Ultimately, the

:11:04.:11:08.

decision by swing voters, people by definition have no principled view

:11:09.:11:14.

on the subject, will be based on big picture variables and factors. Would

:11:15.:11:19.

you rather have the Prime Minister, still a credible, by all accounts a

:11:20.:11:24.

reasonably popular Prime Minister, on your side? You would. It is a big

:11:25.:11:31.

asset than Iain Duncan Smith, Boris Johnson Michael Gove. One of the big

:11:32.:11:33.

elements of the bigger picture is the prospect of Turkey becoming a

:11:34.:11:40.

member of the European Union. I am not sure I will be alive at the

:11:41.:11:42.

member of the European Union. I am Turkey joins the European Union.

:11:43.:11:47.

That means the EU is basically lying to Turkey? The implicit thing about

:11:48.:11:53.

the deal they have had is you make progress towards membership. I am

:11:54.:11:57.

the deal they have had is you make making progress towards becoming a

:11:58.:11:59.

millionaire, it is not going to happen. I was looking to you for

:12:00.:12:05.

alone! I was in Luxembourg ten years ago when those accession

:12:06.:12:10.

negotiations began. The Foreign Minister of Turkey was made to

:12:11.:12:14.

negotiations began. The Foreign in Ankara. He eventually flew

:12:15.:12:17.

through the night when Europe eventually said yes, we will start

:12:18.:12:18.

it. eventually said yes, we will start

:12:19.:12:19.

France to allow them to join. eventually said yes, we will start

:12:20.:12:27.

French will not vote in favour of Turkey joining. I agree it is not

:12:28.:12:28.

going to happen but it Turkey joining. I agree it is not

:12:29.:12:35.

of hand to imply to the Turks to get them to deal with the migrant

:12:36.:12:39.

crisis. They use it to get the money and sneak through various

:12:40.:12:41.

crisis. They use it to get the money All Brexit has to do is

:12:42.:12:45.

impression that it might happen sooner or later and bingo, you will

:12:46.:12:51.

scare a lot of people. More worrying is how strategically depend on the

:12:52.:12:56.

West is on Turkey. The Turkish government, is nothing like the

:12:57.:12:57.

Turkish government than it government, is nothing like the

:12:58.:13:02.

ago. Which is why we are having to shut up about domestic Turkish

:13:03.:13:06.

affairs because we are so reliant on them. They are only closing

:13:07.:13:12.

We won't be back next week, it is We will leave it there.

:13:13.:13:23.

We won't be back next week, it is Easter, but remember, if it is

:13:24.:13:29.

Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless of course, it is Easter.

:13:30.:13:36.

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