20/03/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


Mark Carruthers looks at the political developments of the week and questions policy makers on the key issues.

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Iain Duncan Smith follows up his resignation with a blistering


attack on George Osborne, saying some of the Chancellor's


budget measures are deeply unfair and damaging to the country.


It's being seen as a direct attack on Chancellor Osborne -


are his leadership hopes now holed below the waterline?


And with ministers now close to civil war over IDS's resignation,


And coming up here: With the Easter Rising


commemorations just one week away, I'll be asking the Justice Minister


for his assessment of the legacy of the rebellion 100 years on.


But with questions over who pays, is the


And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political


panel in the business - Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott


and Janan Ganesh, who'll be tweeting throughout the programme


So, George Osborne unveiled a Budget which he hoped


would satisfy the Tory faithful, generate a feel-good factor


in the run up to the EU referendum and enhance his own leadership


That strategy started to come off the rails within 24 hours


as the Chancellor faced Tory revolts on four fronts.


And was blown to smithereens on Friday night when welfare


secretary Iain Duncan Smith resigned over savings to disability payments.


This morning open warfare is breaking out


We'll be devoting the next half hour to this story,


with analysis and comment from Nick, Isabel and Janan and interviews


with the shadow work and pensions secretary Owen Smith,


the Conservative backbencher Heidi Allen, and the head


of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson.


First, Giles Dilnot reports on the very public falling out


at the top of David Cameron's government.


When the Chancellor gets badly hurt in an attack from his own side,


we shouldn't be surprised where it came


Iain Duncan Smith and George Osborne whenever was buddies


and they are on the opposite sides of the EU


But for nearly six years, they've worked together


in government, delivering welfare reform and savings.


Last July, when the Chancellor announced the living


Those currently on the minimum wage will see that pay rise


And whilst in polling, there was popular support


for balancing the books and reforming welfare,


there was also angry protest, especially from disabled people,


who passionately believed they had been targeted


The deepest wound a Work and Pensions


Secretary could inflict on his own governments,


On Wednesday we were touted a budget that would be dull,


Nonetheless, the Chancellor and wannabe PM was


The richest 1% pay 28% of all income tax revenue,


a higher proportion than in any single year


But not so for many disabled people and enough Tory MPs,


of State for Work and Pensions, set out changes that will ensure


that within the rising disability budget, support is better


It was a confirmation of changes that just 48 hours later would see


a resignation letter from the man the Chancellor was referring to,


questioning if enough is being done to ensure


These were changes to personal independence payments that have


replaced disability living allowance, that would make it more


likely large numbers of recipients got less money,


and in some cases much less, in future.


Something he regarded as a compromise too far.


According to Mr Duncan Smith, the changes had demanded because too


much emphasis on money-saving exercises and that his welfare


to work reforms could not be repeatedly


By this weekend, the government's unofficial paramedic


was dispatched to patch up the internal wounds,


Mr Duncan Smith's literary cuts had inflicted.


by the whole Cabinet on Wednesday morning before the Chancellor


And he was obviously part of that process.


These proposals came from his department.


And the PM's response to the letter stressed...


In the hours after the budget, amid angry


rumblings from the backbenches, suddenly the government


where describing and announced policy


Something that has been put forward, there has been a review,


And the suggestion the next day from the PM


We are going to discuss what we put forward


with the disability charities and others, as the Chancellor said


It is important this increase in money


goes to the people who need it the most.


The problem is, the internal party concerns were that it looked


like money was going to those that didn't need it most.


The headline rate of capital gains tax currently stands at 28%.


I am cutting the capital gains tax paid by basic rate


Iain Duncan Smith said the disability


reforms couldn't be defended within a budget that benefits


I'm told this was the most toxic aspect for a large number


And that he was not the only conservative in government


who'd considered resignation over this.


But not everyone was sorry to see him go.


The problems have been at the heart of the DWP.


I do not see eye to eye with the Treasury,


I'm not the Chancellor's biggest supporter,


shall we say, but the reality is, in all the experiences I've had,


the problems have been with an evangelical point of view,


They have consistently failed disabled people


As Stephen Crabb takes on work and pensions,


But clearly the quiet man reflected if


you're going to turn up the volume at all,


best rattle the windows of Downing Street.


A war of words has now broken out in Iain Duncan Smith's


old department, with one junior minister accusing him


of "shocking" behaviour, but three other ministers rounding


Mr Duncan Smith gave his first post-resignation interview to Andrew


Anybody who thinks this is a here today, gone tomorrow


I am genuinely frustrated, I have no personal ambitions. If I never go


back into government again, I will not cry about that, it is not my


ambition. I came into this government, and let me be clear, I


came into this government because I cared about welfare reform. I spent


eight years in social justice trying to figure out why certain


communities were so badly off and how could we get them back to work


and solve that one. Everything I have done has been driven by my


desire to improve the quality of life for the worst. We can debate my


policies, but my motivation has always been a bad back. My motive


now, I am concerned that I want to succeed and it cannot do the things


it should because it is too focused on narrowly getting the deficit down


without saying where it should for. Minutes later the energy


secretary Amber Rudd, popped up to attack her former


cabinet colleague - saying she resents Mr Duncan Smith's


"high moral tone". I do remain perplexed. It indicated


he was making progress. He wrote a letter on Thursday night saying what


he was doing and why we should support it. So I don't understand. I


do remain perplexed about it, but I am disappointed. This is an man I


sat a cabinet with for nearly a year. He was a cabinet minister for


nearly six years. I do respect him, so to suddenly launch a bombshell on


the rest of us in a way that is difficult for us all to understand,


is disappointing. It is the Tory party now in open welfare and it is


not easily quelled? If Amber Rudd is perplexed, it is a dereliction of


duty on her part to understand what has been going on in her own


Administration. In a way, there is nothing sudden about this for Iain


Duncan Smith, it has been brewing for a long time. She has known that.


He has been rustling for a long time whether he can do better, staying


where he is and operating within the difficult constraints the Treasury


has imposed on him. Or whether he is better off out and saying what he


really thinks. That is what tipped him over the edge. The Downing


Street strategy is to paint Iain Duncan Smith as a kind of,


head-banging Eurosceptic and try to pretend it is all about the EU


referendum. I don't think anyone who watched Iain Duncan Smith this


morning giving that powerful interview to Andrew Marr, could


really doubt that what this is about is Iain Duncan Smith's real desire


to do the right thing by the disadvantaged. The rest is just


noises off. When you look at some of these clips come he comes out


against the welfare cap, to arbitrate. If you are sitting in the


Labour Party right now, you will be cutting up that interview and


pouring it out at every opportunity. This story will go on and on? I


interviewed Iain Duncan Smith about two months after the 2010 election.


He said if George Osborne wants me to be a cheese parer and do


arbitrate cuts, I will be out. Isabel says commie has been rustling


for six years with this. He came into this after the visit to the


Easterhouse estate in Glasgow. He had in Europe and championed the


vulnerable. He came to it with a mission to try and increase


incentives for the low paid combat to work. To George Osborne,


it is the bottom line. But it is combat to work. To George Osborne,


going to go away, you have the extraordinary spectacle of three


going to go away, you have the pretty Patel included, putting out


statements in pretty Patel included, putting out


Duncan Smith. And you have the pensions minister delivering a


Downing Street script saying this is about Europe, even though there is


not a word about Europe in Iain Duncan Smith's statement. Ross


Altman, who was unhappy with Downing Street and the Treasury on the


pension changes coming out and delivering what Downing Street one.


It is a mess and it shows the normal discipline you would expect in


government really is a challenge but the referendum. It is over the


George Osborne? If wasn't on the budget. Tax credits last summer,


reversal on pension reforms this year. And now this, you cannot


deliver but on Wednesday which is just a proposition by Thursday


evening and by Friday evening provokes a senior Cabinet colleagues


resignation. It is bad for him. stun them month after a general


election Monday, ... And start with them all going in different ways


during the referendum, it could get worse. They need this referendum out


of the way as quickly as possible. They


of the way as quickly as possible. would suggest, with the remaining


of the way as quickly as possible. this. In four years' time, at a


general election will this. In four years' time, at a


George Osborne's leadership chances? Quite possibly.


George Osborne's leadership chances? Chancellor will put this back


together again Chancellor will put this back


campaign. It might not just Chancellor will put this back


Osborne's future on the line, it Chancellor will put this back


could be the Prime Minister's the Chancellor's fate if tied


could be the Prime Minister's the to make the Conservatives


could be the Prime Minister's the again. It George Osborne goes down,


David Cameron's position is again. It George Osborne goes down,


And don't forget Cameron has never at this point,


ever, he ain't controlling it. As we know, these things have a life of


their own, so it should keep us Iain Duncan Smith's resignation has


been simmering for some time but it was triggered by plans


to make cuts to disability benefits A few days before George Osborne's


budget, the government previewed plans to change the way claimants


were assessed for certain disability benefits, saving ?1.3 billion a


year. The office of budgetary responsibility said the changes to


the personal independence payments, or Pips, would adversely affect


370,000 people by 2020. The amount of Paire pick a person receives is


decided by awarding points based on need -- the amount of PIP. Grab


rails, personal toilet seats, arguing people would audit have


these items. Iain Duncan Smith resigned, saying the changes were


not responsible. Replying to the resignation, the Prime Minister said


it had now been agreed not to proceed with the policies in their


current form. But that wasn't the only major criticism levelled at


George Osborne's budget. The Chancellor confirmed he will miss


Fiorentina of his three fiscal rules. Next financial year, welfare


bill cost almost ?120 billion, well over the cap of ?115 billion, which


he introduced himself to restrict overall welfare spending. And he


also broke his debt rule, which promised that national debt would


decline every year as a proportion of national income. This financial


year, total debt is expected to be 83.7% of GDP, up from 83.3% in


2014-15. We did ask the Government for


an interview about the disability But we were told no


one was available. It's a familiar refrain these days,


especially when the government I'm joined now by the head


of the Institute for Welcome to the programme. It looks


like the government is making a U-turn on these cuts to disability


payments, how big a haul does that blow in the Chancellor's efforts to


get a budget surplus by 2020? The truth is we are talking very small


numbers in the context of ?800 billion a year or so of spending.


The Chancellor is aiming for nearly a billion pound surplus, he doesn't


get this, it takes just down to under ten, so in that sense it


doesn't matter all that much to his target the 2020. But he has already


inked in 3.5 billion of unspecified cuts, we don't know what they would


be to get this surplus, but there are about eight or 9 billion of


watch some might call jiggery-pokery, cuts to public


investment in the final year, and now this. It must make it more


difficult for them. There are all sorts of things in the budget aimed


at that particular year. Numbers are being moved around and there are


some unspecified spending cuts. It is important to see this in the


broader context. Unless something awful happens, we will get close to


a budget balance in 2019-20, which given that we were over 150 billion


in deficit in 2010, the biggest deficit in his time that we have


had, to get from their too close to surplus will be quite an


achievement. Economically and politically understand it matters


enormously, but economically, the difference between a ?10 billion


surplus and the deficit is almost hear the dash-mac when neither here


nor there. The Treasury would expect that


department to find ?1.3 billion elsewhere, is that right? Not


necessarily, this is unlike the health budget or the education


budget, it is determined by the demands on the budget. So I think if


they don't put these changes in, the presumption will be at least that


the spending will still be in the budget. The day after the budget,


you said the Chancellor had only a 50-50 chance of filling his surplus


in 2020. Would you like to recalibrate these odds? It is a


relatively small change in the context of where we are, still a


50-50 shot. The thing that will determine it is much less changes of


this kind and parsley more what happens to the economy, whether the


economy does better or worse than currently expected. In many ways,


the most important thing we learned on Wednesday is that the O BR has


much less optimistic about the economy, and therefore we will all


be worse off than we thought we were going to be. The Treasury, as Iain


Duncan Smith has been saying, has been clawing away at working age


benefits the years, for him this was the final straw. But isn't that


inevitable, if you have a government who ring fences pensions and the


NHS, the only big travel figure spending line is welfare? If you are


looking, like the government has been common to really dramatically


reduce the deficit significantly, you are not going to avoid doing


things on the welfare side. Much more than ?100 billion was spent on


just working age welfare, covered by that welfare cap, which is far more


than we spend on almost anything else, apart from health service and


pensions. But the Chancellor has created this fiscal position. Even


though it was weaker, he cut business rates, he cut corporation


tax, capital gains tax, he raised the personal allowance, and he


raised 40p income tax threshold. He didn't have to do any of that. Even


if he had done only some of that, he would not have had to look for these


cuts in disability for study has made that himself will stop you are


right, she didn't have to make any of those changes, but it was very


clearly in the Conservative manifesto to increase the personal


allowance. So presuming that he would have kept the manifesto


changes, he would have had to have done that, and has to do quite a lot


more route. Cutting those taxes clearly means you have to do some


other things to maintain his target. But he didn't have to do them. Also,


perhaps his leadership tensions did play a part. There were two major


areas where they could have raised a lot of money, pension reform, by


taking away the top tax-free, which could have saved billions, and


raising the fuel duty. If you don't visit now, when will you? Both could


have raised billions and he chose not to do it. Those are two very


different kinds of things. Yes, you are right, it is astonishing with


petrol prices at their lowest level for a very long time, chatty on


petrol at its lowest level since the mid-19 90s, the cost of driving a


car at its lowest level for perhaps 30 years. If you can't increase fuel


duties even then, that is a long-term problem for the Treasury,


because it brings in a lot of money, ?30 billion a year, and if that goes


it is a real problem. On pension tax will if it is a much more complex


issue. There are good economic arguments, for maintaining it as we


have at the moment, and had you got rid of that 40% relief, you would


have hit the 5 million or so people who pay 40% tax, it would have been


another slice of the population rather unhappy. The national debt,


not the deficit, will be 1.7 4 trillion by 20 20. If the government


was then to run a surplus of say 10 billion a year for ten years, which


would be unprecedented in British government, after a decade, the debt


would still, by my simple rhythmic calculation, the ?1.64 trillion. Is


that what you mean by economically irrelevant in running a surplus? The


key point about the size of the debt is it is size as a fraction of


national income. More important than the absolute level. As the -- even


running a surplus of 10 billion or so a year, you don't get too


prerecession levels of debt until the mid 2030s. The argument the


Chancellor would make the running a surplus year after year is that even


if you just run a balanced budget, it takes


Owen Smith, in his resignation undo the damage that the crisis


Owen Smith, in his resignation letter, Iain Duncan Smith


Owen Smith, in his resignation protection of pensions. Do you agree


with that? I don't think that should be the first thing


with that? I don't think that should all, Andrew. I think the very clear


message that Iain Duncan all, Andrew. I think the very clear


himself has delivered is their word choices that could have been made in


the budget, and the Chancellor made them and he made the wrong ones


coming chose to cut the benefits from disabled people. As we have


heard, the PIP cuts taking many thousands of pounds away from the


370,000 people, and instead he chose that he was going to cut corporation


tax, which he -- is going to benefit large countries in this country, and


he chose to cut capital gains large countries in this country, and


which were largely benefit people who have got a bit of money. So I


think there were different changes he could have made even within the


terms of this budget that would have been much fairer. I understand that,


but which are nevertheless have thinks it the benefits? -- ring


fenced? We need to look at all these things long-term, but it would be


for a Labour government when we get closer to the next election to the


absolute specifics on all of those pension benefits, but by and large,


let's be clear. The last Labour government worked incredibly hard to


raise pensioners out of poverty. We were incredibly successful in that


regard, a million pensioners lifted out of poverty under the last Labour


government and I don't think they ought to be the target for cuts,


just as I don't believe that disabled people ought to be. There


are myriad other choices the government could have taken. Iain


Duncan Smith today I think has been very honest in explaining how George


Osborne could have taken different choices, should have done, and in


his words he is dividing Britain, moving away from any notion of us


all being in it together. But you are committed to balancing current


spending, but if you have ring fenced pensions, as you have told us


this morning, presumably you would ring fence the NHS, or even add to


spending in the NHS, and you want to ring fence nearly all of welfare as


well. Where do the cuts come from the balance current spending? I have


just given you two, let's be very specific, Labour would be saying


today if it were our budget, that we would not have done the cuts to


corporation tax, that would have given us in year ?600 million, and


we would not have done the cut to capital gains tax, that would give


us another ?600 million. That nets off the PIP cuts annually, the ?1.2


billion, and there are other similar choices we could look at. We would


not have taken corporation tax back to 19%. We would have been taking


far more from large multinational companies than this government is.


So far you have given me 1.2 billion, but you have announced much


more than that in spending plans. So I am not quite clear how it is you


would balance current spending, because I think we can both agree an


extra 1.2 billion went to do it, will it? No, but a corporation tax


alone by 2020 would be giving us ?2.5 billion, if we were to revert


back to the April 2015 rate of 20%. We would still have a corporation


tax in this country that was 10% lower than Germany, 15% lower than


America, 10% lower than Australia. It would be an extremely competitive


rate of tax. I just highlight that ?1 billion example, ?3 billion


example, how we would make different choices. Right, but as I say, in


many of your spending plans you have already spent that sort of money.


You also talk about fair taxes, you would not cut the corporation tax


any further, what else to you mean by fair taxes? What would you raise


by fair taxes? As I said a minute ago, we can't for years out from a


budget before, a pre-election budget from Labour, tell you precisely what


all of our spending plans will be, I don't think that is a reasonable


thing to ask any opposition government to do but I think we are


setting very clear indicators about what we think the benefits would be.


Give us another example. It is reflective of our belief that those


who have the largest amounts of money ought to bear the largest


burden in our society. It is unclear whether that raises you very much.


The government's own analysis showed there was ?3 billion forgone in


cutting that top rate of tax. I now see they are trying to argue they


have somehow applied a famous curve and ?8 billion they have made. I


think corporation tax shows you very clearly, corporation tax receipts


have been flat, they have managed to cut from 28% to 20% in the last six


years, and the amount of receipts we are getting in has gone from 43


billion to 43 billion. Investment has decreased.


What are used to call sickness benefit comes to over 50 billion


pounds a year. You would leave it untouched? No, we want to reform the


system. Take for example, Iain Duncan Smith made a lot about


universal credit this morning. He has said George Osborne has stripped


out the guts of universal credit. I was asking about disability? Some


people who are disabled will be in receipt of universal credit. What


would you do about the disability 50 billion pounds annual budget? We


wouldn't be making the changes the current government are proposing.


They are lying to the British public about this, spending on the disabled


is increasing. If you take all disability benefits, I am publishing


figures today that say it has declined around 60% that the


government have already cut disabled benefits. -- 6%. That will not be my


target. Would you keep this increase in the threshold for people who


enter the 40% tax bracket? Yes, we would keep that. It is fair to say


the fiscal drag of people being pulled into the 40p rate has been


increasing. I think we will need to reform taxation much more


fundamentally. I still think the key thing today is we have got to


understand George Osborne is the man in the dock. I am going to have to


stop you there. We look forward to talking to you in the future about


your plans for tax reform. Now let's go to the Conservative MP who has


spearheaded the back bench opposition to George Osborne's tax


cuts. Was a Iain Duncan Smith right to resign? He was coming he had


reached a point where he had had enough of the purse strings being


pulled so he couldn't deliver the welfare reform he wanted to. He had


no option. Mr Cameron says he is puzzled by the resignation and the


position of the government on these welfare reforms and cuts had been


collectively agreed. I am learning, I am still a relatively new MP. You


can keep your powder dry for so long, you are convinced by the whips


that this is the right thing to do. Your conscience will kick in, it did


for me last year over tax credits. The rumblings are more open this


year than they were last year over tax credits. Iain Duncan Smith


looked around him and saw many MP is saying how unhappy they were and he


couldn't proceed any longer. Would you have been one of the rebels if


the government had proceeded with what was in


the government had proceeded with the years has presided over a number


of cuts to welfare. Now he is resigning


of cuts to welfare. Now he is going to happen,


of cuts to welfare. Now he is The first thing to say, I cannot


of cuts to welfare. Now he is happened. I have had no letter or


e-mail coming from the Treasury saying we


e-mail coming from the Treasury again. A lot of what has been cut


from Iain Duncan Smith's point of view, so the tax credit taper rate,


universal taper rate, PIP, it has been coming thick and fast. He has


had to deliver what it was revolutionary welfare reforms. He


wanted to do them the right way. Everything I talked about in my


maiden speech about doing it gently and allowing the minimum wage to


rise. The Treasury whole the purse strings and they stopped him


delivering the policies the way he wanted to.


delivering the policies the way he tax credits, which was a move


delivering the policies the way he take away some welfare benefits from


delivering the policies the way he the working poor, is it not puzzling


the Chancellor then moved in to an even more difficult group to deal


with, in terms of taking things away, into the disabled and seem to


have learned nothing from the tax credit U turn? I guess we will see


in the days and weeks to come. It is not just PIP, you will remember the


extra payment given to claimants who not just PIP, you will remember the


had been ill for a long time and were returning to work. I voted


against that also. I hope Stephen Crabb, the new Secretary of State


will have a conversation with the Treasury and this will be brought to


the table. We have made some poor decisions. Some of the areas of


taxation we have opted for instead, are wrong. It doesn't send the right


message that as a Conservative Party we can look after everybody in


society. It is only the Conservatives who can, because we do


need the strong economy to deliver any of this. But it has got to come


back to the table and we have got to start again. Is it your view it


wouldn't be enough just to tinker with what the government was


planning to do with the personal mobility independent payments and do


what it did with tax credits, which was to scrap what it was planning to


do and start again? I have spoken to a lot of disability charities. I am


putting myself through and Mark PIP assessment because I want to feel


what it is like. It just doesn't work that so many groups of ill and


disabled people. Tinkering with two tiny point isn't good enough. We


need to look at the whole process and start from scratch and work with


these charities, who understand the pressures put on these people so we


have a system that works for them. Your party is in open warfare this


morning, you have a resignation and people are referring to you as the


nasty party. How big a crisis is this for the Conservatives? I have


been thinking about this this morning. I am trying to keep my own


wooden spoon in my kitchen drawer. I think, in a funny sort of way,


because there has been so much focus on the EU, this might lead the sense


check we need. All MPs are good people trying to do the best they


can. This could be the slap to the face we all need that says hang on,


get back together and sort ourselves out. We are the party that should be


looking after people. In fact, I think it could bring us together. If


you are to be brought together for a fresh start from tax credit to


disability payments, is George Osborne still the right Chancellor


to do it? It depends how he responds to the challenge. I am hoping so.


The jury is still out? Yes. Are his chances to be Prime Minister below


the water line? Sometimes the strength of a man is how he picks


himself up from a fall. So let's see how he responds. If this is


attempted to be brushed under the carpet, I think his chances are


over. If he lets himself up and shows he is listening, making


mistakes is OK, providing you correct them before they affect


people. He did that with tax credits. Some ways it was a big


thing because it would have affected millions and millions of people. But


we need to wait and see what he is going to do with this. Your wooden


spoon is always welcome on this programme.


It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.


Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.


100 years on from the Easter Rising, the effects of that rebellion


are still being felt in the form of a threat from dissidents.


I'll be asking the Justice Minister, David Ford, for his assessment.


And rebellion at Westminster over disability benefits.


How might changes hit claimants here?


Algae asking a leading benefits expert to explain.


And with their thoughts throughout, I'm joined by Brian Feeney


In one week's time, the centenary of the Easter Rising will be


commemorated in an official ceremony in Dublin.


Dignitaries from across the island have been invited to


However, the centenary has also prompted concerns that dissident


republicans will intensify their violence, as we've already


seen with the murder of prison officer Adrian Ismay.


With me now is the Justice Minister, David Ford.


How concerned are you that the dissidents will strike again


Since I became ministers six years ago, the threat has always been


severe against police and prison officers, so in that sense, it is


not particularly different. But we do know certain people hang things


on anniversaries and those are a particular concern for the next week


or so. How could you ever manage


to persuade people who feel they are carrying on in


the footsteps of the 1916 rebels that, a century on,


they've got it badly wrong? I'm not sure it is possible to


dissuade those who continued those actions. What we saw on Good Friday


1998 was a fairly significant number of those who previously supported


file and action against the state ends that. It has been messy and


edgy, but we have seen the great majority of Republicans except the


arrangements from Good Friday. But small numbers did not. They seem to


be more welded to the struggle than any possible outcome. It is


absolutely clear that the actions coming out, including murderers,


make no difference to the way Northern Ireland has run and a make


no difference to the constitutional arrangement with the UK and Ireland


and are simply causing terror and threat and anguish. In the meantime,


it looks as if prison officers in particular are vulnerable in our


society. Prison and police officers are under particular threat. There


is no doubt that will continue to be the case if dissident is continue to


pose those kind of threats and continue to carry on in the way they


are doing. There is a particular concern, and the prison service does


what it can to assist people in providing protection to homes. Is


enough being done or should more be done, given what the threat is?


Bill-mac I see a very significant effort put in to provide that level


of protection. But clearly that also relies on individuals and how they


look after themselves. It can never be 100% guaranteed.


How do you think Easter 1916 should be marked?


I think it is interesting when you see marked. What we see are some


people wanting to celebrate and others wanting to mark. I have


received an invitation to go to O'Connell Street on Easter Sunday,


which I have declined. I explained when I wrote back I did not think it


was appropriate for somebody in my decision to take part in a ceremony


which was directly linked to that particular act of violence. Just the


same as I took no part in any celebration for the Ulster covenant


three years ago, even though my grandfather was one of many


thousands of people who signed it. I do think it is appropriate we use


this as a time for reflection. There are other events over the next few


weeks which I will which take a more rounded approach.


We talk about the journey from which take a more rounded approach.


rebellion to reconciliation. It is entirely appropriate we


rebellion to reconciliation. It is that. We should recognise the


rebellion to reconciliation. It is relationships which has existed


rebellion to reconciliation. It is the last 18 years. Are you


rebellion to reconciliation. It is the formal event on the day itself


in Dublin the formal event on the day itself


complexity of what happened 100 years ago, so much so


be uncomfortable being there? I would be uncomfortable at an event


like that. I have no problem recognising what happened on the


whole issue of the ways relationships have


whole issue of the ways was an invitation to attend a


centenary Celbridge in the First World War, you can see that as a


movement into a democracy. My problem is that people who murdered


Adrian Ismay, the people who murdered David Black and others, the


people who murdered the two officers, would all claim to be the


direct inheritors of Easter 1916 and I cannot associate myself with that.


Some people equate Easter 1916 with the Battle of the Somme in terms of


historical significance. If you would feel uncomfortable formerly


commemorating Easter 1916, would you be comfortable formerly


commemorating the Battle of the Somme? You save some people


associate them and I do not think that is true. There is no


equivalence. Ten years ago, I attended the ceremony which the


Irish state attended the ceremony which the


of the Battle of the Somme, marked the sacrifice of many thousands of


Irishmen, North and south. I think that is very different. Frankly,


some of these events... Looking at the Easter Rising, it's as if only


those who bid involved for those who were engaged in


those who bid involved for those who to civilians, police also, never


made British soldiers. It is certainly a complex issue.


The Attorney General, John Larkin, has said the Easter Rising


was profoundly wrong and undemocratic.


I think all the evidence at the time, until the point when the


British general ordered executions, I think all the evidence was


regarded as undemocratic by the great


regarded as undemocratic by the whatever part of Ireland they came


from, whether nationalist or unionist. The question that needs to


be asked, and I am interested to hear your answer.


Are you uncomfortable with elected politicians in the Republic,


representing a 21st-century western democracy, celebrating an armed


I think there is a problem if you celebrate the insurrection in a way


which doesn't mark all the events associated with it. And it does seem


to be that some of the event is being run are celebrating the rising


rather than looking at the totality of relationships. I can accept there


are lots of complexities. Three years ago, the Queen stood and bowed


her head before a monument, so I can accept that there has been a


significant degree of reconciliation between the two islands, between


North and south as well. But I think there is real difficulty if the


state is putting a very significant part of its effort into marking the


efforts of those who engaged in violence when there was a


democratically available, contrary to the wishes of the vast majority


of Irish people, and doesn't actually recognise in some of the


key events, the totality of what happened and the totality of


suffering. Have you formally committed to taking part in any


events which will mark that? Yes, there are a couple of events coming


up on the two weekends after Easter. There is an issue of the opening of


the war memorial. There are a variety of issues which seemed to be


looking at the totality of what happened rather than celebrating the


specific act. What actually happened on Easter Monday in the month of


April, and not Easter Sunday, on the month of March. You're coming to the


end of your time as Justice Minister. You will not upload your


name to go forward for the position in the new mandate. What do you


regard as the successes of your six years in charge? I said in my party


conference speech a couple of weeks ago that I thought we had seen more


reform in the last six years than any previous 16 or possibly 26. I


believe that is true. Issues like prison reform and youth justice


reform, issues of legal aid reform, which simply left to withdraw. That


has now been tackled. We have seen huge changes and there is a lot to


be done, particularly around prisons, but what I was able to do


is announce the later stage of the study relating to youth justice and


get massive agreement around the Chamber on almost everything on how


we stop young people getting sucked into a culture of criminality and


how we get them out of the system at the earliest possible stage. That is


a very different situation from the political views six years ago. It


has not all been a success. If you could put a finger on your key


failings, what would they be? Come on, mobility vision will do that. I


might say I regret that so much takes so long, because we have


lengthy consultation processes. We have not moved as fast as we would


have wished on some of those reforms. I think those are the kind


of problems you see. But what I think we have done is set the tone


for saying justice has actually been operated successfully for six years


and will continue to be a part of devolution. The pace is the problem,


but the reality is the successful stop but we are not yet ready for a


DUP or Sinn Fein Justice Minister? The minister will have to be


elected, but I get the impression that some people are still looking


to Alliance. Thank you very much indeed for joining us for now.


Let's see what our guests make of it, Brian Feeney and Felicity


Brian, let's talk about 1916 first of all. It is hugely complex. What


do you make of what David Ford has just said and the distinctions he


has brought out? It is making it over complicated. The reason it has


been marked and celebrated, whatever, on Easter Sunday and


Easter Monday. And I was there on Easter Monday making a speech on the


forecourt, along with other people... It is the origins of the


state and it is a bit pious to produce modern ideas about democracy


and freedom and all the rest of it and exported them back one century.


The United States celebrates an armed resurrection against Britain,


1775-1776 full stop they are happy to do that. There are massive


bicentennial celebrations that cost hundreds of millions of dollars. All


over the world, could have state 's which threw off empires at the


beginning of the 20th century. And they all celebrate getting rid of


the empires, whether it is the British, French, the Austrian


Empire. There was actually a lot of support in Ireland for the


Bulgarians trying to overthrow the Turks and the Russians at exactly


the same time. So when the Attorney General John Larkin says that


looking at 1916, you have individuals of huge moral worth and


capable of self-sacrifice, doing something that was profoundly wrong.


You disagree? Quite often, the Attorney General is profoundly


wrong, but never in doubt. Sorry expat I would be very curious to see


if Brian get a letter in the post tomorrow from the Attorney General's


Office for that. The thing I have found fascinating about the 1916 and


all the fuss is I have learned a lot. I knew all about the causes of


the First World War in school, more than 1916 and the rising. I just


knew something had happened in Dublin. The British had, as usual,


mishandled, and the outcome of that was the Irish free State. Now that


you know, would you become double going along as Brian's guest to take


part in those celebrations next week and? I would be curious to go along.


I would see as being something that I didn't understand much of. But you


do not feel threatened by it? It is so long ago and there has been such


a change in our relationship with the Irish Republic that what is


happening this time around will be different, I hope, from what


happened in 1966. You have got a willing guest. Very quickly, what


about the fact, and this is a serious point, that there are some


people who still use what happened 100 years ago as a reason for what


they see as unfinished business today? That is right, and they try


to use what happened in 1916 to legitimise their actions today. But


they are a tiny minority. They have no support and cannot get anyone


elected, and actually, no one knows what they want. It is not a case of


saying they want a united Ireland. No one knows what they want. We will


talk to you again very shortly. Thank you both for now.


The resignation of Ian Duncan Smith from the Cabinet has ensured that


planned changes to disability benefits are going to stay


Mr Duncan Smith says the changes are unfair,


but his opponents say he's standing down because he wants Britain


Here he is explaining to Andrew Marr this morning why he resigned.


Pressure began to grow because this pressure was about the budget and


the problem over the revised figures for the Budget. What worried and


concerned me was we then came under pressure to put the consultation out


and respond to it before the Budget, and I always hoped we would do that


afterwards so as not get caught up in the Budget. This was supposed to


be part of the process in the category can best aid those in need.


And that pressure really was to get out a definitive definitive answer


only consultation. There were lots of arguments and debates about that.


Downing Street and the Treasury wanted the extensive set of changes.


We argued first of all for no change at this point. And we wanted to


ensure that if we did, we wanted a smaller level of change, but most


importantly, to continue the dialogue and not have a fixed point.


So how will the proposed benefits changes, which are designed


to save ?4 billion, affect people here, especially given our previous


With me now is the benefits expert, Professor Eileen Evason.


Welcome to you. Thank you for being here. It does seem to be


unbelievably complicated. What do you make of the row that has never


engulfed the Government after Mr Duncan Smith's sudden departure? It


is very confusing. In Northern Ireland we do have a strategy from


energy on welfare reform. On Wednesday, I thought we might have


to go back and crunch the numbers. We would have to check if that was


robust enough to take the changes proposed by the Government. What


they were doing was PIP, we benefit that has replaced the older one for


those of working age. We must have certain points to qualify. They want


to adjust the systems will people scored fewer points and get less


benefit or might fall out of benefit altogether. We have to look at that


and see if we can accommodate that. But we are two years behind the


situation. There might be a case of defending that because we are a


different state. However, as I was thinking that, the whole thing


seemed to fall to pieces. Initially, had a number of Conservative MPs


unhappy about it. It doesn't look nice to be seen to be cutting


benefits for vulnerable or disabled people. At the same time giving tax


cuts to those who are better off. We had Ian Duncan Smith's resignation


after that. This is added confusion. To say that he is resigning because


he is not happy about the fact George Osborne is being nasty to


people on disabilities and cutting their benefits is frankly... It is a


laugh. He has presided over numerous cuts and things that have made


people's lives, if they are disabled, much more difficult. That


is why it is so hard to get welfare reform sorted here. People were


watching what was happening there and were alarmed. So you have


suspicions about his reasons were leaving in the first place? I think


it may be tied up in the issue of the EU. He was to be fighting for


Brexit. Alongside that, he has tried to do damage to Cameron and Osborne.


Maybe he has worked out that Osborne is not going to take over from


Cameron. The person who may do so is Boris Johnson. I think there is a


whole lot going on. Unfortunately, this is not about benefits, I


suspect, and we be dragged into a much broader issue. Ian Duncan Smith


denies it has anything to do with the EU, but some say he would say


that. The shadow secretary made an interesting point. You have said


this is about real people and real issues. In terms of them surviving.


He said he suspects Mr Osborne plays politics with the lives of


vulnerable people. Is that what this is about? Yes, I remember when I was


doing interviews in 2010, 2011, we got to grips with the volume of cuts


announced by the coalition, mainly the Conservative Government, and


that concern was that the difficulty with deficit was caused by the


bankers. We could not understand why the cost of clearing up that mess


should fall under people in the bottom half of our society.


Osborne's strategy was either about dealing with the deficit or it was


about a cover for an agenda to shrink the state. If we see what has


happened to local government and benefits, there is a suspicion that


is what it has been about. But real people have been damaged by this.


And real people watching this may be do not know what is happening. And


you wonder if members of the Cabinet know quite what is happening. It


does seem that the changes were announced in the Budget for what...


Ian Duncan Smith resign. The issue on which he resigned has now been


kicked into the long grass. We do not know precisely what that means.


I think we have gone from... Nicky Morgan on question Time said the


cuts were under question. Then we had someone yesterday saying this is


now about consultation and discussion. I think what they want


to do is get the issue of the table until after the referendum, then of


course they will come back. But we have a number of Conservative MPs


who were not happy about tax credit cuts. They are not happy about this.


Maybe we will move into a new period of discussion. If it is an issue


that will be kicked down the street until after the referendum, it may


well come back and you could have to sit down and crunch numbers again


and look to see whether the mitigation here in Northern Ireland


meets that. Is that a possibility? It is, but I think we will do it


calmly. We rushed things last year. The things went down the first time


because people rushed in front of microphones and got themselves


confused. Steady as we go, we have got a strategy, we will look at it


to see if we can cope. I think we might be able to do so. We might


have to delay the change because we are farther back than we are in


Great Britain, sought a different point in the process. But let's do


it calmly. Thank you very much for coming in to join us.


Let's take a look back at the week gone past


The first and Deputy First Minister were in the US for... When news


reached them the death of police officer Adrian Ismay. We are here to


talk about Northern Ireland. I am personally devastated to hear the


news. We are trying to move forward and build a better future. There are


tripping continued including a meeting with President Obama, but


Gerry Adams was excluded from a White House reception. I was not


invited, and it is bad manners. It is not a good way to treat guests.


As thousands gathered to celebrate in public, celebrations in the holy


land area of south Belfast turned sour. We have been far too lenient


in the past. Life there is an utter misery. It is a high octane mix.


Long periods of drinking. And with an election looming, it was time to


say goodbye to some old faces at Stormont. It was a pleasure to know


each and every one of you. Thank you very much.


APPLAUSE Let's have a final word


from Brian and Felicity. Whether you agree with what Eileen


Evason is analysis or not, it is a bit shambolic in terms of the


Government's position on welfare, isn't it? It is dreadful. It is an


episode of The Effect Of It. Cameron Sward down the phone, so they say.


It is dreadful, no way to run a Government. It is not about Brexit.


Brexit is different, it is not about that. Ian Duncan Smith was free to


say what he wanted about that. He did not need to make the stand to go


out and campaign for what he believes about Europe. I think it is


much more about Osborne and his relationship with other big beasts


in the party. What do you think of where we are? Can you pick any


logical path through this, Brian? First of all, there is a


relationship between Ian Duncan Smith and George Osborne which has


been terribly bad since 2010, but there is certainly an element of the


referendum in it. There is no doubt that Ian Duncan Smith and close


associates of hers have been saying he has been looking for a pretext of


designing for several months because of his opposition to being in


Europe. He described the official Government position as a dodgy


dossier. Having said that,... Furthermore, he has carried out some


of the worst reforms in the last six years, the benefits cap, the bedroom


tax, he has been attacking people with disabilities for six years, and


finally to decide he has got a conscience is surprising. OK, it is


a fascinating situation and we will have lots more value out of it in


That's it. Now, back to Andrew in London.


extra cash. -- onto the consumers will stop


My thanks to Diane Abbott and to Justine Greening.


government back together after Iain government back together after Iain


Duncan Smith's resignation? What happens to George Osborne's budget


plans and what will the impact of all this be on the EU referendum


campaign? So where does it go from here? I


would suggest it gets worse for the Tories long before it gets better.


Yes, I think one thing David Cameron and George Osborne might want to


think carefully about is how they manage Iain Duncan Smith, and the


pretty hostile briefing against him is only going to increase his ire.


They should not forget that he has quite an important weapon, the


private conversation with primers to's office in recent weeks, which


show that the Prime Minister wanted to much, much further than Iain


Duncan Smith was willing to go. When they say these were your ideas, why


is it a problem, Iain Duncan Smith's argument is yes, these were my


ideas, but they were part of a long-term sustainable plan. They


were not about giving you, George Osborne, money to cut taxes for the


wealthy, which is what he did in capital gains tax. So I think they


probably need to handle Iain Duncan Smith with care because he could be


dangerous for them if he really is on the loose.


Is clear It already for every person in Downing Street is briefing to


have a go at Iain Duncan Smith, there is someone ready to have a go


at Mr Cameron and the government? I cannot remember a time since David


Cameron became leader of the Conservative Party that discipline


has broken down as it has in the last 48 hours. It is hard to see how


he brings discipline back in before the referendum. His powers of


patronage is limited, he doesn't want a big reshuffle before the


referendum, he wants to wait. There is a feeling of open season. Is he


on his way out? It is not in Brexit's interest to whip this up.


People will worry what a big leap it is into the unknown if we leave. If


they think we are voting for a total change of government and Prime


Minister, it puts the stakes of even higher. We might see believe


campaign's dumping this down a little bit. The Chancellor, now


among the walking wounded, has a budget to get to the House of


Commons which deals through money matters. He needs a vote to cut the


capital gains tax, cut corporation tax, raise the threshold for the 40%


taxpayers. There is a danger with rebellion in the air and the Tory


back benches rebel against one thing, as they do on disability,


they could rebel on other things? I think he has two problems, the


immediate is the legislated challenge of getting the CGT cut and


the threshold raised and everything else through Parliament in the


coming weeks and months. Then he has to find the money he has just lost


by reversing on the disability benefit cut. He has already lost


money from reversing the tax credit policy. Which is why he broke his


welfare cap. Exactly. Even if he gets through this immediate


challenge of getting the budget through Parliament, his central


purpose as a politician is to close the deficit. He has made it harder


for himself by reversing on some of these contentious measures. It's not


as if the problem ends in a few weeks' time. Isn't it made worse by


the fact this is taking place in the midst of the EU referendum campaign,


which had already divided conservatives. It like pouring


petrol on the flames? It is hard to see anything other than another four


months of mayhem. We don't know what the results of the referendum will


be. Probably a good deal of mayhem after that. It is interesting how


quiet Boris Johnson has been. I understand he is away skiing, but we


haven't heard from friends of his. Maybe the lines are bad to the Alps.


It shows you how serious his team are, they are being smart and will


not wade in. This has been a good weekend for Brexit, because their


most high profile member of the Cabinet has resigned and appears to


be a bit bullied, possibly by George Osborne. He speaks from the heart of


this because he had this visit to Glasgow and got onto this issue. In


that sense it is a good weekend the Brexit. But the problem for them,


you need to be talking about the vision for the future of Britain.


This is quite Westminster, inside. Brexit need to counter the main


argument that they are the biggest risk. While there may be sympathy


for Iain Duncan Smith, it is not getting on their argument. The two


leading spokesman for the remain campaign on the conservative side


the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. The Minister has a civil


war on his hands and has to be careful he doesn't make it worse by


some of the briefing Downing Street is behind. The second most important


man is among the walking wounded. Why will people listen to him over


the referendum. That is why it has been a good weekend for the Brexit.


But the most political force in this country will make a big picture


decision based on the big picture arguments of what is the safest


option and what is the riskiest option. I am not sure this great


excitement and eruptions in the Westminster village, I am not sure


whether they massively register with the British people if they make a


big decision are big issues. There is concern over the Conservative


Party and their brands. They work so hard to detoxify themselves in the


run-up to the last elections. It wasn't convincing, they were in


coalition and now they have the smallest of majorities. Now it looks


like they are the nasty party. At a time when the home strategy was to


move to the centre ground? It hasn't worked. If I were a conservative


strategist, I would concerned about the catastrophic damage to the


party's brand. The Prime Minister keeps on making speeches, normally


on Monday about the poor, about racial discrimination, about


equality. All designed to position the Tories in the centre, even the


centre-left ground, because they think Labour has left that. But they


can come up with the tax credit fiasco and the disability fiasco.


Who is running the show? It is hard to close the deficit once you have


ring fence the NHS and everything else. But they make it difficult and


provocative when they juxstapose a cut in tax credits, with raising the


threshold of in terrorist -- inheritance tax last year. Capital


gains tax this year. They have had to do it because it was in the


manifesto, but it didn't have to be in the manifesto and it is that


juxtaposition rather than the cost of welfare that appeared to be so


incendiary. You say it has been a good weekend the Brexit, and the


domestic back drop will exacerbate tensions between the remain and


leave. But there is an international guy mentioned to this. The EU in


Turkey have come to an agreement, I think it starts tonight. And here is


a guess, I'd bet it starts to unravel within 24 hours? It is the


sort of thing that looks good on paper. Refugees who come over arson


back to Turkey and Syrian refugees are sent to Europe. Looks great on


paper. These are people who have risked their lives, seen people


drowned in the Aegean Sea. Lost family members. They make it to


Greece and you are going to say to them, get back. And they say, fine,


I will do that. It will be difficult to do. UN agencies are saying they


are not sure if it is legal. You cannot treat a group of migrants as


a group under the Geneva Convention, they have to be treated as


individuals. But this treats them as a group. If you see more unpleasant


scenes out of Greece, more of a sense the European Union just hasn't


tackled this problem, that all adds to the leave campaign? Yes, it is a


real source of alarm. The debate about Turkey and the possible


prospect of Turkey, in the long-term, becoming part of the EU,


is extremely toxic. The outer campaign will be seeking to exploit


every inch of that debate. It has been a horrible week for the remain


campaign, politically and strategically. Ultimately, the


decision by swing voters, people by definition have no principled view


on the subject, will be based on big picture variables and factors. Would


you rather have the Prime Minister, still a credible, by all accounts a


reasonably popular Prime Minister, on your side? You would. It is a big


asset than Iain Duncan Smith, Boris Johnson Michael Gove. One of the big


elements of the bigger picture is the prospect of Turkey becoming a


member of the European Union. I am not sure I will be alive at the


member of the European Union. I am Turkey joins the European Union.


That means the EU is basically lying to Turkey? The implicit thing about


the deal they have had is you make progress towards membership. I am


the deal they have had is you make making progress towards becoming a


millionaire, it is not going to happen. I was looking to you for


alone! I was in Luxembourg ten years ago when those accession


negotiations began. The Foreign Minister of Turkey was made to


negotiations began. The Foreign in Ankara. He eventually flew


through the night when Europe eventually said yes, we will start


it. eventually said yes, we will start


France to allow them to join. eventually said yes, we will start


French will not vote in favour of Turkey joining. I agree it is not


going to happen but it Turkey joining. I agree it is not


of hand to imply to the Turks to get them to deal with the migrant


crisis. They use it to get the money and sneak through various


crisis. They use it to get the money All Brexit has to do is


impression that it might happen sooner or later and bingo, you will


scare a lot of people. More worrying is how strategically depend on the


West is on Turkey. The Turkish government, is nothing like the


Turkish government than it government, is nothing like the


ago. Which is why we are having to shut up about domestic Turkish


affairs because we are so reliant on them. They are only closing


We won't be back next week, it is We will leave it there.


We won't be back next week, it is Easter, but remember, if it is


Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless of course, it is Easter.


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