22/05/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


22/05/2016

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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Leave campaigners say Turkey is on course to join

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the European Union and, if we remain in the EU,

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that will mean more criminals here and greater pressure

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The Prime Minister says it's nonsense.

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We'll have the latest on this developing row.

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This woman claims to be the voice of business -

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and that most businesses in the UK want to remain in the EU.

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But is the business case that clear cut?

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We speak to the Director General of the CBI.

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When it comes to gauging public opinion on the referendum,

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which is better: telephone polls or online polls?

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Even the pollsters are having trouble answering that one.

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And I tell you what, if I don't know,

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having done all this opinion polling for lark for 21 years,

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As the battle lines are drawn around opposition,

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more Stormont manoeuvrings this week over the Justice Ministry.

:01:27.:01:29.

which school principals say they now face.

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wrath citizens are eligible to vote in the EU referendum. Which way did

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they tilt? And with me - as always -

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a political panel of the best and the brightest in the business,

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hopefully they do know which way to jump: Tom Newton Dunn,

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Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh who'll be tweeting

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throughout the programme. Turkey has taken centre-stage

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in the referendum debate today. Vote Leave are launching

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a new poster campaign warning that Turkey is on course to join the EU,

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leaving the UK vulnerable to criminals, mass migration and

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more pressure on public services. The Prime Minister was asked

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about the claims on the Robert Peston programme on

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ITV. Every country has a veto,

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and let's be clear, as Boris himself said, Turkey

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joining the EU is not remotely on the cards. At the current rate of

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progress, this would be decades, literally decades,

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before this even had a prospect of happening, and even at that stage,

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we would be able to say no. Well, that was David

:02:27.:02:31.

Cameron this morning. But here's what he had to say

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in a speech in Istanbul in 2010. But here's what he had to say

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in a speech in Ankara in 2010. It makes me angry that your progress

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towards EU membership can be frustrated. My view is clear. I

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believe it is wrong to say that Turkey can guard the camp, but not

:03:00.:03:04.

be allowed to sit in the tent. So why will remain your strongest

:03:05.:03:09.

possible advocate for EU membership and for greater influence at the top

:03:10.:03:15.

table of European diplomacy. The Prime Minister six years ago after

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becoming Prime Minister. Is it a proper issue for this

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referendum or is it a red herring? It is an issue and quite frankly,

:03:26.:03:30.

the Leave campaign will be delighted that we are now talking about

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Turkey, because every time you talk about Turkey, you conjure up the

:03:35.:03:39.

image of more migration, uncontrolled immigration from a

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poorer countries so it is a Leave win. I am not sure that the Prime

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Minister is right to engage in this one. But he has been called about

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this from someone whose judgment he also calls into question. But is a

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strange thing, his own Armed Forces Minister. The Prime Minister is

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right to say we have a veto, every EU member has a veto in new members,

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but if the Prime Minister is in favour of Turkey joining, which is

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said he was in Ankara, then the veto does not matter? Absolutely. What a

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great clip that was the Prime Minister in 2010, when he set out

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Ray clearly what his position is. He supports Turkey joining the EU in

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whatever time frame that may be. It does not do for the Prime Minister

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to say we have a veto. The question is, will you use that veto? If he is

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saying we would use our veto against Turkey, that is big news and can we

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hear it? It would be a big U-turn. It could be moot, couldn't it? There

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is no prospect of Turkey joining in the future, is there? The telling

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thing about this conversation as we are focusing on our veto and the

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veto possessed by all existing EU members and not focusing on Turkey

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itself. Is that country as keen on joining as was a decade ago? The

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change and internal politics in Turkey suggests they are less keen

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on membership or less keen on doing the things necessary to successfully

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apply for EU mentorship than they were a while ago. I think for

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reasons on the Turkish side and on the European side, it will not

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happen until I am a very old man. But it is entirely legitimate for

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Leave to play up this issue and every day we talk about migration is

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a day we're not spending talking about the economy and I think that

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is their only route to victory four weeks' time. There are plenty of

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forces in Germany and France, two countries about to have elections

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next year, who are not going to agree to Turkey joining any time

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soon. And if you were to be fair to the prime and Vista, you would say

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he made that speech in 2010 in Ankara, me and a whole load of

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political hacks were in the room when he said it... Were you there? I

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was there. At one stage he says he was passionate about Turkish

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president. He was very keen to suck up to President Erdogan at the time

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because he wanted more trade. That was pre-migration crisis. That has

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changed everything not just in British politics but for Angela

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Merkel and Francois Hollande. It may be acceptable for the Prime Minister

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to do a 180 degrees U-turn on this issue. We will see as the day

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develops. So, the head of the NHS in England,

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Simon Stevens, says the health service would be worse off

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if we decide to leave the EU. Two of his predecessors have also

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written a joint article in the Sunday Times

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saying that they think, for the NHS at least,

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staying in the EU is Mr Stevens was on the Andrew

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Marr Show this morning. When Mark Carney says that the risk

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of a slowdown in economic growth, possibly a recession,

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if we end up exiting the EU, if Mark Carney is right,

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then that is a severe concern for the National Health Service,

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because it would be very dangerous if at precisely the moment the NHS

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is going to need extra funding, actually the economy goes

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into a tailspin and that funding Leave campaigners, unsurprisingly,

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take a different view - they argue that remaining in the EU

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will place further strain on the NHS due to continued free movement

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of people and the accession What is the relationship

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between our membership The Department of Health estimates

:07:43.:07:55.

that the cost to the NHS in England from visitors and non-permanent

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residents who come from the European economic area,

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that is the EU plus Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway,

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is around ?340 million a year. To put that in context,

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the total annual expenditure in England's NHS was

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?113 billion in 2014-15. There are around 3 million people

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from other EU countries resident in the UK and all are entitled

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to use NHS services. All those would be entitled to stay

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in the UK, even if we were to leave the EU, due to the rights under

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the Vienna Convention. In 2015, around 257,000 EU

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nationals migrated to the UK. But whether that number would come

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down if we vote to leave depends on the deal the UK strikes

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with the EU following an exit. NHS England says the total number

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of staff coming from EU countries was just over 53,000,

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or 4.6% of the total NHS workforce. A total of 9% of NHS England's

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hospital doctors, 6% of its nurses and health visitors,

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come from other EU countries, however, all would be entitled

:09:03.:09:07.

to stay in the event of a vote to leave, and without knowing

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what any future deal might be, it is impossible to know

:09:12.:09:13.

if there would be any impact A one-time pro-European

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Foreign Secretary, he is now campaigning for the UK to leave

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the European Union. Good morning, David Owen. Let me

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come straight to the remarks by the man currently running the NHS in

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England, Simon Stevens. He said it would be better for the NHS if we

:09:40.:09:44.

remain in the EU. What is your response? Let's be quite clear.

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Simon Stevens is the manager of the NHS, which is currently ?3 billion

:09:51.:09:55.

in debt. This man has presided now for a sufficient time to judge his

:09:56.:10:01.

management skills. In almost every part of the National Health Service,

:10:02.:10:06.

there is an acute crisis. He spent ten years in America, with an

:10:07.:10:10.

American health care company, effectively arguing for the TTIP,

:10:11.:10:21.

this treaty between America and the European Union, which could be

:10:22.:10:30.

introduced, and an assessment makes it very clear that TTIP will be very

:10:31.:10:36.

damaging to the National Health Service, if it is drafted in the way

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that it is. Simon Stevens should stick to his Lee which is to manage

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the health service more effectively. He is an individual, he has a view

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on the European Union which is fine, but his basic job is to look after

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the NHS, and at the moment he is making a very considerable mess of.

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It is not just Simon Stevens, two of his predecessors say staying in the

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EU is the preferable option. Identifying, if there is any danger

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to the NHS, it is in staying in, with all the elements of the NHS

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which are now involved with the EU. -- I don't think. For the first 20

:11:24.:11:28.

years of our membership, with the common market, we had no involvement

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with the NHS at all. Now the NHS procurement policy, the NHS

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competition policy is all impact in, because we have started to Mark ties

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the NHS in 2002 under Labour. It continued under the coalition with

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the Liberal Democrats of this present Conservative government, and

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it has continued under this Conservative government. If you

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treat health like water or electricity or gas, as a utility,

:11:57.:12:01.

and you treat them all as customers, then you will be under market

:12:02.:12:05.

pressures, and the problem with the NHS is we lost what it was, it

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fortunately still is in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, but

:12:13.:12:17.

in England it is a marker ties to health service modelling itself on

:12:18.:12:20.

the United States of America. If you wanted to make changes, you would be

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wiser to stick to Germany or France, not go the United States model. Let

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me put a point to you. Michael Gove, part of the Leave campaign, he says

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the NHS could be overwhelmed by continued migration if we stay in

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the EU. He predicts an extra 5 million plus by 2030. These

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predictions suggest that Turkey, Macedonia and Albania all join the

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EU by 2020. That is not on the cards, is it? Let's be clear about

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your programme so far and analyse what has been said already. It is

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not the Prime Minister what he said in Istanbul, the Prime Minister nine

:13:05.:13:08.

weeks ago signed up to the European Council meeting on the 18th of

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March, and he said, to re-energise the accession process for Turkey to

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join the EU, and to make preparatory work for the opening of other

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chapters will continue at an accelerating pace. This is a Prime

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Minister who is getting used to saying one thing one time, another

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thing another. Nine weeks ago, we were committed to increasing the

:13:40.:13:44.

speed of entry for Turkey into the European Union. I am passionate

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about keeping Turkey inside Nato, and with one foot in the EU and with

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one foot in the Middle East. Why? Because Turkey is essentially

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important country, as a member of Nato in dealing with Isil, Syria,

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Iraq and many other problems around the world. But you will not make it

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by bringing them prematurely into the European Union. What we should

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be doing is encouraging them to come into the single market which has

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non-EU countries associated, but without this issue of freedom of

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movement of Labour. You are Foreign Secretary... Let me ask this

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question. You must surely know, that Turkey's chances of joining the EU

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in the foreseeable future are remote. Isn't that the reality? No,

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I think what was said by your commentator earlier in the

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programmers that has been a change of foreign policy. If the Prime

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Minister commits nine weeks ago to speeding up Turkey's membership, and

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then does not deliver on it, what will be the consequences? Turkey

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will feel they have been lied to or rejected by the Europeans and they

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will, in my view, come out of Nato with very profound consequences. At

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the moment, let's treat Turkey with respect, let's try and ensure they

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make the necessary changes on human rights and in many other areas.

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There are a lot of worrying aspects about Turkish policy, but mention

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above the European Union in my view is not the issue. It is how to make

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them more committed to Europe. Don't avoid this question. If we are in

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the European Union, we are committed to freedom of movement of Labour in

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every aspect of EU membership. That is a problem. David Owen, thank you,

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we will have to leave it there. The Confederation Of British

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Industry calls itself the "voice of business",

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claiming to speak on behalf of 190,000 businesses,

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employing up to 7 million people. And according to the CBI,

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British businesses overwhelmingly back the idea of remaining

:15:56.:15:57.

in the EU. What's more, they've been

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encouraging their members to talk to staff about the referendum

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to give them "the choice to hear what impact a Brexit

:16:05.:16:08.

would have on company growth, their jobs and their

:16:09.:16:10.

local community". As you can imagine, Leave

:16:11.:16:11.

campaigners are not amused. The chair of the Vote Leave business

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council, John Longworth, a former director-general

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of the British Chambers Of Commerce, said the call was an

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"anti-democratic abuse of power He added: "It's highly regrettable

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to see big corporate bosses plotting to gang up on their staff,

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and lecture them on how to vote." Well, we're joined

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now by the director general of the CBI,

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Carolyn Fairbairn. Welcome to the programme. Good

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morning. If big business told its workers how to vote in a general

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election, there would be broad, so why are you encouraging your members

:17:02.:17:04.

to warn their workers about the dangers of Brexit? That is not what

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we have said. We have said that people working today in economy want

:17:08.:17:09.

to hear from their employers about what it means on either side of the

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debate. That is not what you said, you said what impact Brexit would

:17:13.:17:16.

have on growth, jobs and the local community. Positive for negative.

:17:17.:17:21.

You did not say that? It is clear this is not about warning anybody.

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This is about the questions that people are now asking about what it

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means for them. We were clean about that. Most of your members, you

:17:30.:17:35.

claim, are in favour of staying in the European Union. The message

:17:36.:17:39.

going out to the workforce will be overwhelmingly about remaining in

:17:40.:17:43.

the EU. The main thing is that people who are going to vote on June

:17:44.:17:49.

23 have as good an understanding as they possibly can about what it

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means for their jobs, families and communities. That was the key

:17:53.:17:58.

message, nothing about telling people how to vote. We learned this

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week that one of your members, Circle, was planning uproar EU

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campaign with the Prime Minister, even before the renegotiations were

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finished. With the CBI or any of your members have similar

:18:13.:18:16.

discussions with the government? To my knowledge, no. The conversations

:18:17.:18:22.

that businesses, universities, all parts of our society have with

:18:23.:18:27.

government go on every day. Were you planning the pro-union-mac campaign

:18:28.:18:30.

with the government even before the renegotiations? No. But Circle was?

:18:31.:18:39.

No. Everything the CBI has done is a result of the things we have done

:18:40.:18:44.

and a half of our members. Circle has contracts with the government

:18:45.:18:48.

worth several million pounds. The taxpayer pays for that. Its boss was

:18:49.:18:54.

offering to help the Prime Minister do what he could to help keep

:18:55.:18:59.

Britain in the EU. It was a behind closed doors stitch up between big

:19:00.:19:02.

government and big business, wasn't it? The important thing is to

:19:03.:19:07.

understand what businesses across the country of all sizes are seeing.

:19:08.:19:13.

You're focusing on one company. What we are seeing is that the majority

:19:14.:19:20.

of businesses want to stay in the European Union. I understand that. I

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am asking you if the way this company has handled this... It

:19:28.:19:30.

smells of a stitch up? I do not think this is a stitch up. It is

:19:31.:19:34.

about voices of business being heard on issues of jobs, growth and the

:19:35.:19:40.

future prosperity of our country. People can make their decisions on

:19:41.:19:44.

polling day about a whole variety of factors, but businesses who are

:19:45.:19:47.

trading with the European Union everyday, having their voices

:19:48.:19:51.

clearly heard. The voice of this company was certainly clearly heard.

:19:52.:20:02.

He saw the Prime Minister, Mr Soames. This is what he did in the

:20:03.:20:05.

follow-up letter. He spoke about backing the prime and is to's

:20:06.:20:07.

campaign to keep us in the EU. This is even though the renegotiations

:20:08.:20:10.

were not finished. He went on to lobby for business. He said... He

:20:11.:20:18.

wants more business at the same time. It really does add to the

:20:19.:20:24.

sense that this is big business feathering its own nest. That is not

:20:25.:20:28.

what is going on. There are conversations all the time. Why he

:20:29.:20:33.

wise to do that, to lobby for more business at the same time as

:20:34.:20:39.

lobbying to stay in the EU? I think there are conversations happening

:20:40.:20:42.

all the time. Is that conversation appropriate? Those are questions for

:20:43.:20:48.

other people. The CBI represents mainly businesses across the UK and

:20:49.:20:52.

Europe picking on one. The important thing is the voices of the many are

:20:53.:20:58.

heard in this. Are they heard? You give the impression you like the EU

:20:59.:21:02.

because it is a one-stop club for big business. There are 30,000

:21:03.:21:06.

lobbyists in Brussels, most of them are doing for the interests of your

:21:07.:21:11.

kind of members, the business. Ordinary folk do not get a look in?

:21:12.:21:16.

I do not think that is true. We have had 20 business surveys since the

:21:17.:21:19.

beginning of the year, for all different sizes of business, and it

:21:20.:21:24.

is not unanimous, but they are all seeing broadly the same thing. We

:21:25.:21:28.

have had the creative industries Forum coming out with the survey.

:21:29.:21:34.

93%, because they are big exporters. This is not just big business. It is

:21:35.:21:39.

all sizes of business. Let's look at how the EU is good for your members

:21:40.:21:45.

but not necessarily the rest of us. The European Court of Justice has

:21:46.:21:49.

forced Her Majesty is Customs and revenue to hand back almost ?8

:21:50.:21:55.

billion in tax paid by big British companies, overruling tax laws made

:21:56.:21:58.

by our government and our Parliament. That is good for big

:21:59.:22:03.

business but not public services? There are areas where we share

:22:04.:22:07.

sovereignty, in order to have a level playing field across Europe

:22:08.:22:11.

for businesses overall. We are not always going to like all of the

:22:12.:22:16.

rules. It is a question of whether the benefits outweigh the costs. The

:22:17.:22:20.

benefits to your members are clear, they are paying a billion less in

:22:21.:22:27.

tax. The independent office of budget responsibility expected HMRC

:22:28.:22:30.

to pay another 8 billion back by the end of the decade. This is about

:22:31.:22:36.

lowering tax regimes and not allowing HMRC to get the proper tax.

:22:37.:22:42.

That is not fear to ordinary people? To be clear, the CBI can businesses

:22:43.:22:46.

overall do not support aggressive tax avoidance. We support the moves

:22:47.:22:51.

that have been taken at the OECD level to sort this out. This is not

:22:52.:22:58.

something we support. Your members will be 16 billion better off.

:22:59.:23:03.

British schools, hospitals, public services, will be 16 billion worse

:23:04.:23:09.

off. If the HMRC goes down in all these cases, we could be 40 billion

:23:10.:23:16.

worse off. Good for big business, but not local hospitals? I do not

:23:17.:23:19.

know the exact details of those numbers, but I would say that the

:23:20.:23:24.

moves to improve tax policy are absolutely supported by members. The

:23:25.:23:29.

CBI has been wrong about Britain in the EU in the past. Why should we

:23:30.:23:35.

listen to you now? This is becoming a distraction. You are right that

:23:36.:23:39.

when the euro was debated at the end of the 1980s, in principle, the CBI

:23:40.:23:47.

had a principle of support with caveats. You supported the principle

:23:48.:23:50.

of the European exchange mechanism. That ended in recession. Many people

:23:51.:23:57.

lost their homes and jobs. You then became enthusiastic about UK

:23:58.:24:00.

membership of the monetary union, the euro. I ask again, if you were

:24:01.:24:08.

wrong then, why should we listen to you now? Two important points, if

:24:09.:24:13.

you had continued to scroll down, you would seem that there were

:24:14.:24:18.

caveats, conditions that had to be met. Conditions around harmonisation

:24:19.:24:23.

of inflation and the economy. They were never met. By 2000 the CBI had

:24:24.:24:29.

moved its position to neutral. The discussion we are having now is

:24:30.:24:33.

about something very different. It is about the experience that we as

:24:34.:24:37.

an economy have had the European Union for 43 years. We have thrived.

:24:38.:24:41.

We have gone from being the sick man of Europe to being the strong man.

:24:42.:24:46.

His Mrs are doing well. The benefit from being in a single market. The

:24:47.:24:51.

euro was about something which people were imagining in the future,

:24:52.:24:56.

a different debate. Let's come to the current debate. We saw your

:24:57.:25:00.

stance on the euro then. You know think we would be better off if we

:25:01.:25:04.

remain. That is the clear fight -- the clear-cut view of the CBI. You

:25:05.:25:12.

commissioned an organisation to assess the impact of leaving the EU.

:25:13.:25:17.

That is the result of the survey. If we remain, they think the economy

:25:18.:25:26.

will grow by 41% by 2030. Even if we were to come out, the economy would

:25:27.:25:30.

still grow by 39%, even if we did not have any free trade against, it

:25:31.:25:37.

would grow by 36%. It is hardly game changing either way? We have

:25:38.:25:41.

deliberately taken optimistic, balance and areas of the future.

:25:42.:25:46.

You're right, economies recover and adapt. You have not shown the

:25:47.:25:51.

short-term impact of several years of uncertainty. What we believe, and

:25:52.:25:55.

many others believe as well, is there could be significant

:25:56.:26:01.

short-term impacts, no sunlit uplands. You can get to 39%. Your

:26:02.:26:08.

own study shows are economy would be almost 40% bigger by 2030, even if

:26:09.:26:14.

we were to leave. That is if we do a trade deal with the US, if we are

:26:15.:26:20.

able to form new relationships with the EU. These are optimistic

:26:21.:26:24.

assumptions. Take the non-optimistic on, the World Trade Organisation. We

:26:25.:26:30.

just trade on existing rules. It is 36%, it is still a massive rise. Of

:26:31.:26:35.

course we would continue to grow. No one has ever said we would not

:26:36.:26:40.

continue to grow. But will we be more prosperous? We would be 36%

:26:41.:26:46.

more prosperous. In the short-term, by 2020, we estimate there would be

:26:47.:26:52.

a million fewer jobs and 4-5% hate to GDP. Do we want to do that to

:26:53.:26:57.

school leavers? We've just come out of recession. You accept that the

:26:58.:27:01.

difference is not massive? It is entirely possible the economy would

:27:02.:27:06.

adapt. But only with significant short-term impact, and particularly

:27:07.:27:09.

an impact on the next generation of school leavers. The CBI claims that

:27:10.:27:14.

each household benefits to the tune of six -- ?3000 a year. Observers

:27:15.:27:21.

have condemned that as a dishonest figure. Do you stand by it? We do.

:27:22.:27:28.

It was a literature sturdy of existing studies. We wanted to put

:27:29.:27:35.

together a figure that was easy to understand. -- literature study.

:27:36.:27:40.

Estimates like that are difficult to do. There was a range good around

:27:41.:27:46.

it. To be clear, standards of living have doubled. That is since the UK

:27:47.:27:52.

joined the European Union. They have gone from ?20,000 household income

:27:53.:27:56.

to about ?40,000. We are seeing a proportion of that has been a result

:27:57.:28:01.

of membership of the European Union, and independent studies would

:28:02.:28:05.

support that. You did no original research for this at all. We never

:28:06.:28:10.

claimed to. I have explained that to our viewers. You simply did a survey

:28:11.:28:15.

of research papers. But when you look, you cherry picked the research

:28:16.:28:24.

papers that had pro-union-mac inclusions. That is not true. I have

:28:25.:28:27.

got the ones that you did not use, you omitted the IUD, you omitted the

:28:28.:28:30.

National Institute for economic and social research. Even omitted the US

:28:31.:28:35.

Trade Commission survey of what it meant, or to get this ?3000 figure.

:28:36.:28:42.

You know tell me it is not accurate. That is not true. The evaluation we

:28:43.:28:47.

did of the different surveys, we omitted as many on one side as the

:28:48.:28:52.

other. There is a 20 page paper on this which anyone can go and read.

:28:53.:28:56.

It sets out the methodology accurately. You seem to be biased

:28:57.:28:59.

against those that did not come to the conclusion you want. Channel 4's

:29:00.:29:06.

respected fact checked included, the figure is not based on any real

:29:07.:29:12.

evidence. The chairman of the Treasury Select Committee described

:29:13.:29:15.

it as a scandalous misuse of data and intellectually miss honest. We

:29:16.:29:19.

went to him and we set out the facts. I do not think he had read

:29:20.:29:24.

the paper. It is not intended to be anything other than an assessment of

:29:25.:29:29.

consensus views over the last ten years. You did not include other

:29:30.:29:38.

papers. The important thing is to be focusing on what this would mean for

:29:39.:29:42.

the decision for the country. You're telling people that households would

:29:43.:29:47.

be ?3000 a year worse off if we were to leave? That is not what we are

:29:48.:29:53.

saying. Are you saying that we are ?3000 better off by remaining? As a

:29:54.:29:59.

result of having joined, about 15% of the increase in living standards

:30:00.:30:02.

over the time since joining is a result of being part of the European

:30:03.:30:06.

Union. That is a reasonable thing to have said. Is the CBI still keen on

:30:07.:30:10.

principle to join the euro? Absolutely not.

:30:11.:30:17.

Would you welcome a further expansion of the EU to include the

:30:18.:30:22.

five countries already in the queue? I think it has to depend on the

:30:23.:30:26.

conditions at the time. The thing that is clear is we have a sovereign

:30:27.:30:31.

choice over those additional countries. Turkey is a huge market,

:30:32.:30:36.

it could be good for British business, would you welcome it? We

:30:37.:30:40.

have not had that discussion with our members. We would have a

:30:41.:30:51.

discussion at that time and have a point of view at that time. The CBI

:30:52.:30:54.

welcomed both the Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty. Would you welcome a

:30:55.:30:58.

further transfer of powers if we voted to remain? No. I think one

:30:59.:31:02.

thing which is clear is we pool sovereignty when it is in the

:31:03.:31:06.

benefits of our economy and we don't wear it is not. I would say one

:31:07.:31:10.

thing, in terms of the opt out from the working Time directive, a very

:31:11.:31:15.

important part of our special arrangement, if you like, of the

:31:16.:31:20.

European Union, the CBI was fully part of and helped to negotiate.

:31:21.:31:24.

Thank you. Depending on which polls you look

:31:25.:31:26.

at, Britain is either scoffing at the idea of leaving the EU

:31:27.:31:29.

or it's marching swiftly One telephone poll this week gave

:31:30.:31:32.

Remain an eight point lead. An online poll, meanwhile,

:31:33.:31:36.

gave it to Leave by four points. The problem is that both

:31:37.:31:38.

those polls were done Our society and our electorate

:31:39.:31:40.

is made up of unique individuals, every one of them different and yet

:31:41.:31:49.

they share many attributes: gender, age, race, religion,

:31:50.:31:52.

economic background, education, political views,

:31:53.:31:54.

and social attitudes. Pollsters, therefore,

:31:55.:32:02.

can only ever try to tell us terms of a specific question,

:32:03.:32:06.

but it's only ever going to be a snapshot of wildly

:32:07.:32:11.

interpretable data. That snapshot is simply a moment

:32:12.:32:13.

in time, and is always, inevitably, slightly inaccurate

:32:14.:32:16.

to varying degrees, and what makes

:32:17.:32:20.

political polling even harder is it is like trying to

:32:21.:32:22.

hit a moving target from a moving platform

:32:23.:32:30.

in the And you would think in this EU

:32:31.:32:32.

referendum the simplicity of the question would help,

:32:33.:32:35.

should we leave It makes the whole thing

:32:36.:32:37.

much more complicated. The problem is a slew of polls

:32:38.:32:46.

giving very different signals. Given the problems

:32:47.:32:48.

pollsters had getting the general election right, and some

:32:49.:32:50.

of them didn't, this matters. Some have it neck and neck,

:32:51.:32:55.

some Remain ahead, others ahead It is a minefield in

:32:56.:32:58.

terms of working out When I apply different technical

:32:59.:33:08.

methods to my raw data, I can move the Remain or Leave lead

:33:09.:33:17.

in both directions. I tell you what, if I do not

:33:18.:33:19.

know having done this opinion polling lark for 21 years,

:33:20.:33:24.

I am not sure who does. Some of this is down to how

:33:25.:33:28.

the polls are done, how they get a truly

:33:29.:33:32.

representative sample of society in the first place,

:33:33.:33:35.

either by phone or online panels. Which is best is a bone

:33:36.:33:41.

of contention that in recent days has even

:33:42.:33:44.

spilt onto social media, The problem is it has become

:33:45.:33:46.

harder and harder to get Online samples are by their nature

:33:47.:33:52.

self-selecting so have biases Phone samples used to be

:33:53.:33:57.

considered far more representative, but in recent years,

:33:58.:34:03.

the response rates to phone polls have dropped so low it is hard

:34:04.:34:05.

now to consider them to be So both modes have an element

:34:06.:34:09.

of self-selection. Can I ask you a few questions about

:34:10.:34:13.

about yourself? Would you say you are likely to vote

:34:14.:34:16.

or will definitely vote? Fewer of us use landlines

:34:17.:34:20.

or want to be cold called, thus more calls then ever before

:34:21.:34:26.

have to be made just to get But you do avoid those who,

:34:27.:34:29.

with online polling, And phone contact through

:34:30.:34:34.

persistence is better at eventually reaching those who are

:34:35.:34:39.

harder to get hold of. Would it be all right

:34:40.:34:44.

if we call you back later? There is a growing narrative

:34:45.:34:50.

amongst some pollsters that phone polling

:34:51.:34:56.

is probably the more accurate, which,

:34:57.:34:59.

given recent phone polling We look at samples and try to check

:35:00.:35:00.

them to see we have the right number of people who vote,

:35:01.:35:07.

do we believe that all the people

:35:08.:35:09.

in our sample who tell us they're going to vote actually

:35:10.:35:12.

will, are we missing people who really just do not care

:35:13.:35:14.

about the referendum referendum and aren't going to vote,

:35:15.:35:20.

are we missing the great unwashed who do

:35:21.:35:23.

not have degrees? All those things,

:35:24.:35:24.

when we make adjustments for all of those things, Remain is

:35:25.:35:26.

still ahead. We would have to be very,

:35:27.:35:29.

very wrong indeed for Remain, at the moment, on the

:35:30.:35:31.

polling so far, not to win this Online pollsters, who use panels

:35:32.:35:34.

of signed up people, are perhaps not surprisingly

:35:35.:35:38.

pointing to weaknesses So much so that the online pollsters

:35:39.:35:39.

YouGov have conducted some phone polling

:35:40.:35:44.

about phone polling. What we found from that comparison,

:35:45.:35:49.

both to the national picture and to our online polls,

:35:50.:35:53.

was that telephone polls were underestimating the people

:35:54.:35:57.

who are not university educated, and that is

:35:58.:35:59.

hugely important in the EU referendum because we know

:36:00.:36:03.

that is one of the great social cleavages, in other words,

:36:04.:36:06.

one of the great things that divides So phone polls are missing

:36:07.:36:08.

potential Leave voters. Online are accused

:36:09.:36:12.

of overstating them, there are two other that vital:

:36:13.:36:18.

are are you going to vote? Turnout will be

:36:19.:36:27.

crucial on June 23rd. The higher it is the more it favours

:36:28.:36:29.

Remain, and what happens when the mass of "don't

:36:30.:36:32.

knows" make up their mind? With more questions and mixed

:36:33.:36:34.

answers, and four weeks to go,

:36:35.:36:35.

most pollsters might reasonably fear

:36:36.:36:39.

the result of a poll that asked us all,

:36:40.:36:41.

"Do pollsters really have a It's just gone 11.35,

:36:42.:36:43.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:36:44.:36:51.

in Scotland who leave us now It's just gone 11.35,

:36:52.:36:54.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

:36:55.:37:02.

in Northern Ireland. The countdown is on to D-Day -

:37:03.:37:06.

that's the day the D'hondt method of sharing out the Ministerial posts

:37:07.:37:09.

will take place at Stormont. The Justice Ministry

:37:10.:37:11.

is still at the heart of negotiations - even though

:37:12.:37:14.

the DUP and Sinn Fein say there's no doubt they will be in a position

:37:15.:37:17.

to form a full We'll hear from

:37:18.:37:20.

Professor Peter Shirlow and Allison Morris from

:37:21.:37:22.

the Irish News on how Plus, education was one of the big

:37:23.:37:25.

issues on the doorsteps in the run up to the election -

:37:26.:37:32.

and the threat of budget cuts, teacher redundancies and bigger

:37:33.:37:34.

class sizes looms large for the new Minister who'll

:37:35.:37:38.

take charge this week. Deirdre Gillespie from St Mary's

:37:39.:37:41.

in Magherafelt and Ralph Magee from Andrews Memorial

:37:42.:37:45.

Primary School in Comber - So the week to come is set

:37:46.:37:47.

to be as fascinating After the drama of the SDLP's

:37:48.:37:57.

move into opposition and the Alliance Party not quite yet

:37:58.:38:01.

definitively following them out the door, we're

:38:02.:38:05.

still looking forward to the big reveal of who will

:38:06.:38:07.

take the Justice post. Here, a bit earlier than normal

:38:08.:38:10.

on the programme, is the drama of the week gone past in 60 seconds -

:38:11.:38:13.

with Stephen Walker. In the justice ministry is being

:38:14.:38:30.

discussed at the minute. It wasn't just the weather that was

:38:31.:38:33.

changeable, the face of Government took a different turn. Further

:38:34.:38:39.

deputy and first-Minister, it was keep Cam and carry on. We have both

:38:40.:38:44.

campaign to be in Government. Others did not campaign in the same way.

:38:45.:38:50.

The SDLP decided that was not good enough. We will go into opposition

:38:51.:38:57.

to form a constructive opposition to remain party executive. Remember

:38:58.:39:02.

Arlene's 5-point plan during the election, Alliance have five demands

:39:03.:39:06.

of their own in the negotiations for the justice post. There was list was

:39:07.:39:10.

rejected. At the moment it would appear that I'm not interested and

:39:11.:39:14.

that proposition. They say they are confident they can go ahead without

:39:15.:39:20.

as. If they do not take justice, who will? I will as a compliment that

:39:21.:39:27.

they did not ask me. -- did not dare ask me.

:39:28.:39:29.

So let's discuss the drama of the past seven days -

:39:30.:39:31.

and the options for how things might play out

:39:32.:39:33.

over the coming week, with Allison Morris and Pete Shirlow.

:39:34.:39:37.

Welcome to you both. There is an opposition but Jim Allister has

:39:38.:39:46.

known that for some time. Do you think this was the right thing for

:39:47.:39:50.

the Ulster Unionist and the SDLP to do? Clearly what did also does is

:39:51.:39:57.

allow policies to develop, allows criticism of policies that are put

:39:58.:40:02.

out by Sinn Fein to be articulated. It allows those parties to create

:40:03.:40:08.

policies. The fundamental problems was a lecturer Lee. They were not

:40:09.:40:13.

going to go anywhere with junior partners. It allows them to regroup

:40:14.:40:18.

and allows them to think about the credentials. It allows a proper

:40:19.:40:22.

critique of Government, that is another step to normalisation. There

:40:23.:40:28.

is another view and we have heard some commentators articulate that

:40:29.:40:32.

this is the road to nowhere, the road to political irrelevance. We

:40:33.:40:34.

are hearing that from the two vertical parties. I think Peter is

:40:35.:40:43.

right. It was opposition or die for the SDLP. I think for them to

:40:44.:40:46.

survive in the long running opposition was the best route to go

:40:47.:40:54.

down. Even one lone person and opposition can put pressure on the

:40:55.:41:02.

parties. Very few places of two pieces of legislation was passed

:41:03.:41:05.

before. Do you think it has a hand in the negotiations with its 5-point

:41:06.:41:09.

shopping list and apparently no room to manoeuvre? I think not, I think

:41:10.:41:14.

it's the opposite. What we did was, do you want us or not? They set out

:41:15.:41:19.

some kind of idea of what they wanted in return was clearly quite

:41:20.:41:23.

robust and basically saying, are we contingent to being in Government?

:41:24.:41:27.

The answer came back no and we know what our position is, we're not a

:41:28.:41:31.

patsy and we're not going to follow you and do what you want to do.

:41:32.:41:33.

Walking away seems logical. Well, let's hear what the Sinn Fein

:41:34.:41:35.

president Gerry Adams had to say to reporters

:41:36.:41:38.

on Friday afternoon. Our political correspondent

:41:39.:41:40.

Stephen Walker asked Mr Adams if his party would accept

:41:41.:41:42.

a DUP Justice Minister. Well, we had the Executive elected

:41:43.:41:54.

on Wednesday. If we do not go into another election, we have a series

:41:55.:41:59.

of options to mixture of the Executive is elected. Arlene Foster

:42:00.:42:06.

says she want have Sinn Fein justice minister. Is that the basis for a

:42:07.:42:12.

partnership in Government? Well, look, let's not underestimate the

:42:13.:42:18.

challenges that Irish republicans have working with the Democratic

:42:19.:42:21.

Unionist Party. Let's not underestimate that. Is the

:42:22.:42:28.

Government that we have in place the one that we would choose? No, it is

:42:29.:42:34.

not. Clearly we are united Ireland is and we went to see United system.

:42:35.:42:39.

We are resolute in pursuing that. We want to build peace and build

:42:40.:42:47.

partnership and build equality and to end division. We work with the

:42:48.:42:52.

DUP, notwithstanding the faculties. They would say the same thing about

:42:53.:42:58.

us. We are a progressive party, a party which believes absolutely

:42:59.:43:03.

inequality and unity of citizens. I'm not going to rise to these

:43:04.:43:12.

suggestions or put downs. We have a job of work to do, we are elected to

:43:13.:43:15.

do that and that is what we're going to do. Is the DUP Justice Minister

:43:16.:43:20.

better than another election? If there's going to be another

:43:21.:43:23.

election, we will fight that election on the positive platform.

:43:24.:43:29.

Would you go for a DUP does Minster before an election? In other words,

:43:30.:43:34.

if that is the choice? Well, let's say this, if there is an election,

:43:35.:43:39.

Sinn Fein will fight that election. Our focus at the moment is to get a

:43:40.:43:49.

fool executive and just as minute collected on Wednesday. How

:43:50.:43:51.

difficult is it for Sinn Fein to have the DUP ruling out a Republican

:43:52.:43:58.

in the justice post? The DUP has been very clear in saying this time

:43:59.:44:03.

they want accept a Sinn Fein justice minister. Gerry Adams did not rule

:44:04.:44:06.

out having a DUP justice minister. He just said, we will see. That

:44:07.:44:11.

looks like one of the likely prospects. An independent take up

:44:12.:44:18.

the post. They have put out feelers to try and take the post. Of all

:44:19.:44:22.

those people decline, that would be the possibility of a DVD justice

:44:23.:44:26.

minister. For Republicans, policing is one of the... It is quite

:44:27.:44:34.

controversial. One of the options would be, it hasn't been discussed a

:44:35.:44:38.

lot but it would be Arlene Foster ticking on the job of justice

:44:39.:44:41.

minister alongside first-Minister, which you could do and she could

:44:42.:44:45.

appoint a shin pain junior minister. That is a possibility -- Sinn Fein.

:44:46.:44:52.

When you hear that commentary and when they walked out of Stormont

:44:53.:44:55.

house and they had confidence that there would be a justice minister,

:44:56.:44:58.

there is something in the back pocket. I think it's one thing this

:44:59.:45:06.

collection shows us is that people want these two to be a partnership

:45:07.:45:10.

together. People are voting for a Sinn Fein DUP are to lead

:45:11.:45:15.

Government. Even people who do not vote, say they want them to be the

:45:16.:45:20.

Government. There is no alternative to that. Clearly this is something

:45:21.:45:24.

that is going to show us a very different strand of politics between

:45:25.:45:28.

now and the next election. We don't want to have another election. Sinn

:45:29.:45:32.

Fein did not have a good election. I don't think they would want to go

:45:33.:45:33.

back and have another election. Stephen Walker was busy for us

:45:34.:45:36.

on Friday, he also spoke to the senior DUP MLA,

:45:37.:45:38.

Simon Hamilton, and put it to him that if a Justice Minister couldn't

:45:39.:45:41.

be agreed, then we're facing I don't believe it will get to that.

:45:42.:45:49.

We are very confident we will have a solution, we have asked the business

:45:50.:45:53.

committee to convene the Assembly for next Wednesday. That is going to

:45:54.:45:58.

take place. We heard the Deputy First Ministers say they will have

:45:59.:46:03.

an executive in place. It will get down to its business on Thursday

:46:04.:46:06.

next week and get on with what the people want, try to move Northern

:46:07.:46:13.

Ireland forward. Penny except a Sinn Fein justice minister? We have made

:46:14.:46:21.

our vision clear. We are examining a range of options but we believe it

:46:22.:46:26.

should be satisfactory to everyone as well. It will allow us to have a

:46:27.:46:31.

justice minister in place and we will command confidence and allowed

:46:32.:46:34.

the wider executive to be formed and get down to its work over the next

:46:35.:46:40.

years. Is Claire Sugden is serious candidate for justice minister? I

:46:41.:46:45.

think she is a very good Assembly minister and I think she has the

:46:46.:46:49.

skills and ability to be a minister. We have been speaking to her in the

:46:50.:46:53.

last couple of days and had a very good discussion with her yesterday.

:46:54.:46:57.

We are having a discussion and we will continue and we will continue

:46:58.:47:02.

to consider it between the parties at Stormont. Would you be happy to

:47:03.:47:07.

see her as justice minister? I have had the pleasure of working with her

:47:08.:47:11.

over the last few years and she has been very good Assembly met Merck

:47:12.:47:17.

and keeping ministers like me to account -- Assembly member. She is

:47:18.:47:21.

somebody who I think to do a job in the Executive. What about Stephen

:47:22.:47:27.

Agnew? We had a conversation with him yesterday. The Alliance party

:47:28.:47:32.

made requests and they wanted to see these things in the programme for

:47:33.:47:35.

Government and wanted to see implemented to dig up the blaze in

:47:36.:47:38.

the Executive. Some would be difficult for the DUP to agree to.

:47:39.:47:47.

We are having a discussion including discussing with other parties and

:47:48.:47:51.

Sinn Fein as well. There is a big irony, isn't there? The DUP quite

:47:52.:47:58.

happy for Sinn Fein to educate children and looking after unwell

:47:59.:48:03.

people but not justice? A lot of people wonder what partnership

:48:04.:48:05.

Government is about if you do not trust the other party enough? I

:48:06.:48:13.

think it is they had always assumed if the justice minister had been

:48:14.:48:17.

appointed it would have been somebody from Sinn Fein with the

:48:18.:48:21.

taint of a Republican past. For the DUP and voters that was a step too

:48:22.:48:25.

far. There is obviously something in the back pocket. I don't think going

:48:26.:48:30.

to have another election. Claire Sugden is a very capable Assembly

:48:31.:48:35.

member. She got elected as an independent. Does she want to be

:48:36.:48:39.

bolstering up the two parties? Could she do the job's is it realistic was

:48:40.:48:45.

my everyone can do the job. As an independent? Of course she can. If

:48:46.:48:50.

they ask to do it and you does it, simple as that. It is not

:48:51.:48:54.

problematic. The processors allow that to happen. Procedures allow

:48:55.:48:59.

that happen. At the end of the day, these two are the main parties. They

:49:00.:49:02.

should form a Government together and find a way to solve these

:49:03.:49:06.

problems as best they can. That is what the electorate have said.

:49:07.:49:10.

You're the two main parties, get on and make it a normalised to go

:49:11.:49:14.

system. That is how we move forward. Thank you for now.

:49:15.:49:18.

Thank you both for now - and if all goes to plan as the DUP

:49:19.:49:22.

and Sinn Fein see it, then some new faces will be sitting

:49:23.:49:24.

around the Executive table, some of them heading

:49:25.:49:27.

To begin at the top, the awkwardly titled... Becomes simply the

:49:28.:49:37.

Executive office. There is no change at the Department of Finance. The

:49:38.:49:41.

Department of Health remains just that, as does the Department of

:49:42.:49:45.

Justice. The Department for Education keeps its name, although

:49:46.:49:50.

it takes over a range of children's services, currently dispersed among

:49:51.:49:54.

other departments. After that, it is all change. The new Department of

:49:55.:50:01.

agricultural Department, combines agriculture. The rest of the GOP is

:50:02.:50:06.

taken up by the Department of infrastructure, along with the

:50:07.:50:11.

Department of regional development. A new Department of the economy,

:50:12.:50:14.

eats up the old Department of trade and investment. The new Department

:50:15.:50:23.

for communities sees the Department of culture, arts and leisure

:50:24.:50:25.

amalgamate with the Department of social development.

:50:26.:50:27.

Hope you followed that - and, of course, one of the big

:50:28.:50:29.

stories of the next week is likely to be who the new Education Minister

:50:30.:50:33.

is in the new Executive, because he or she will be walking

:50:34.:50:36.

into a situation where there are unprecedented fears over school

:50:37.:50:38.

With me in the studio now are Deirdre Gillespie,

:50:39.:50:43.

the Principal of St Mary's Grammar School in Magherafelt,

:50:44.:50:45.

and Ralph Magee, the Principal of Andrews Memorial Primary

:50:46.:50:47.

In the weeks leading up to the election we heard serious

:50:48.:50:56.

concerns about the increasing costs that schools are facing

:50:57.:50:58.

and the effect on class sizes and subjects being offered.

:50:59.:51:00.

There's been a lot of talk about opposition since the election -

:51:01.:51:04.

but presumably you just want to get an Education Minister

:51:05.:51:06.

Absolutely. Schools are facing unprecedented financial pressure at

:51:07.:51:20.

present. Schools in my sector have deficits ranging from 100,000 to

:51:21.:51:25.

500,000 over a period of three years. The situation at the moment

:51:26.:51:31.

is unsustainable. That has almost come out of nowhere? Absolutely. I

:51:32.:51:36.

left school around Easter with, I thought, a surplus of 1000 and came

:51:37.:51:40.

back with a deficit of ?190,000. This is, on the back of successive

:51:41.:51:45.

cuts over the years were schools have put in cost saving measures and

:51:46.:51:50.

we had nowhere else to go. I have cut my teaching workforce over the

:51:51.:51:54.

last four years by 10%. If I have to balance might looks, that would mean

:51:55.:51:58.

more cuts in staff, which would result in bigger class sizes, less

:51:59.:52:03.

subject choice and not being able to deliver on key policies. Is it the

:52:04.:52:07.

same situation in the primary sector? In terms of the outworking

:52:08.:52:12.

deficits, yes, it is. It is a slightly different look when the

:52:13.:52:15.

impact is looked at in terms of primary because we're not talking

:52:16.:52:18.

about subject choices, we are talking about having a teacher in

:52:19.:52:22.

the classroom. The scary side to this is we are looking at schools

:52:23.:52:27.

across the board in all sectors, sustainable schools over as the

:52:28.:52:31.

tv-mac oversubscribed schools, popular schools, who now face a

:52:32.:52:36.

situation of having to cut cord teacher star. You will have children

:52:37.:52:41.

with no teachers. That result in huge class sizes. Key stage one, we

:52:42.:52:46.

have to ask permission from the Department to go above 30, that is

:52:47.:52:51.

going to disappear. It is frightening prospect. Deidre, we had

:52:52.:52:54.

the Donaldson report on health, which topped about the need for bald

:52:55.:53:01.

but good decision-making where services should be minting or not

:53:02.:53:05.

maintained depending on value for money. It was going to be on

:53:06.:53:11.

politicians to grasp the nettle and make tough choices. They may be

:53:12.:53:15.

unpopular. Is this same scenario beginning to emerge in education?

:53:16.:53:18.

There are two issues that any minister needs to grasp quickly,

:53:19.:53:23.

that is the allocation of funding directly to schools. Currently, 41%

:53:24.:53:26.

of the school budget goes to administration. It leaves only 59%

:53:27.:53:34.

directly to schools. That is in contrast to the jurisdictions in the

:53:35.:53:38.

UK, 90% goes to the front line. There is an urgent need to look at

:53:39.:53:43.

the allocation of funding to schools, to ensure our young people

:53:44.:53:47.

have the facilities that would lead to high quality education. Might it

:53:48.:53:51.

mean we need to seriously sit down and look at school closures? There

:53:52.:53:54.

was a report couple of years ago that said we have 1200 schools. We

:53:55.:54:00.

need about 700. Absolutely. These are the hard decisions they will

:54:01.:54:04.

have to make. Last year of education committee put together a draft paper

:54:05.:54:09.

on -based planning. They said they were 56 surplus places in primary

:54:10.:54:16.

school we have six forms that do not comply to 100 or more, which would

:54:17.:54:21.

equate to a value for money. There is a serious need to look at the

:54:22.:54:27.

school estate. Is that what the new education Minister needs to tackle

:54:28.:54:32.

when he or she sits down behind a desk next Friday, the possibility of

:54:33.:54:38.

closing schools across Northern Ireland? Well, as we have both said,

:54:39.:54:44.

and the facts speak for themselves. The current situation is

:54:45.:54:47.

unsustainable. You have a huge number of schools in Northern

:54:48.:54:51.

Ireland, which will be thrown into financial crisis. Nobody wants to be

:54:52.:54:54.

responsible for that, that's the reality. We know we have too many

:54:55.:54:59.

schools, we also have too many sectors. We have too much.

:55:00.:55:03.

Administration Those are really hard things to talk about in a divided

:55:04.:55:08.

society. They have to be talked about because increasingly we are

:55:09.:55:11.

talking in terms of public service, education is one of them. We are not

:55:12.:55:17.

talking about learning and the excitement, we're talking about

:55:18.:55:20.

money. We are talking about making cuts. In a nutshell, if the nettle

:55:21.:55:26.

is not grasped and the Minister and people working for the minister did

:55:27.:55:29.

not deal with this issue, what happens? Well, you ultimately have a

:55:30.:55:35.

board of governors who are handing in financial plans that will not be

:55:36.:55:39.

approved by the education authority, and they will ultimately, if the

:55:40.:55:43.

governor says no, we cannot do any more, they are going to say over the

:55:44.:55:47.

next number of weeks or are seeing now, the board or education

:55:48.:55:50.

authority will have to run them for them. They will not be able to do

:55:51.:55:55.

that because they will have to cut people. Primary, we will have no

:55:56.:55:58.

teachers. That is something that is going to happen. It is an

:55:59.:56:04.

apocalyptic scenario. If you follow logically and what needs to be done

:56:05.:56:08.

is not done, it's a disaster? Absolutely. The people who are going

:56:09.:56:12.

to suffer in all of this our young people. We're not going to be able

:56:13.:56:15.

to provide the quality of education that we do. They will be a

:56:16.:56:19.

generation of lost opportunity. Let's bring Pete and Alison in.

:56:20.:56:25.

Pete, you are an educationist. You followed this closely. How would you

:56:26.:56:29.

deal with the apparent contradictions that I presenting?

:56:30.:56:33.

First of all, what Deidre said is wrong. You should be -- you should

:56:34.:56:43.

not be having bad management. That should be corrected by the Assembly

:56:44.:56:48.

wrong, because it is happening? You expect the majority of the pound to

:56:49.:56:52.

go to what you are facilitating. More physical control? The other

:56:53.:56:58.

issue is the education system. RB ever going to get rid of -- are we

:56:59.:57:06.

ever going to get rid... Why are we producing people to become teachers,

:57:07.:57:10.

we have three different sites in Northern Ireland. That costs a lot

:57:11.:57:14.

of money. One of the knock on is that to be University of Ulster have

:57:15.:57:19.

led to redundancies and students have come out and protest it. This

:57:20.:57:26.

is a mess. This is a mess. It is a challenge about the past, how do we

:57:27.:57:33.

get rid of the education system. If we went to allow a good health

:57:34.:57:36.

service, an investment in the society, we want to need to make

:57:37.:57:42.

hard decisions in the education sector. That will save money and

:57:43.:57:46.

protect the long-term future. You will have to swallow some bitter

:57:47.:57:51.

pills now. We need to do that to have a normalised functioning budget

:57:52.:57:55.

for the society. But the challenges for the politicians but, Alison,

:57:56.:57:59.

very often in Northern Ireland politicians are not enthusiastic

:58:00.:58:02.

about taking those difficult decisions. In the last

:58:03.:58:06.

administration, the Sinn Fein education minister, had he shut down

:58:07.:58:12.

a rule school in a Protestant area,... Ill expect we're going to

:58:13.:58:17.

have a DUP Minister. Should they shut down an Irish language school,

:58:18.:58:21.

they are going to be accused of being sectarian. It is very

:58:22.:58:24.

difficult to take those decisions without being accused of feeding

:58:25.:58:30.

into some sort of sectarian diatribe. What Pete said about

:58:31.:58:33.

education, we do not speak about that any more. I think we have just

:58:34.:58:40.

given up. Let's go back to the principles, do you think there could

:58:41.:58:43.

be good in terms of delivering the change that needs to happen? We will

:58:44.:58:46.

have some kind of formalised opposition? Do think that would help

:58:47.:58:51.

the debate around these difficult decisions? Are supposed to give the

:58:52.:58:56.

party in opposition the freedom to object and to voice their opinions

:58:57.:58:59.

and concerns. And to call the Minister to account? Absolutely. The

:59:00.:59:05.

bottom line is, I hate to repeat the word unsustainable, but it is

:59:06.:59:09.

unsustainable. We cannot have a system running like this. Perhaps

:59:10.:59:13.

this budget, this finance issue, has brought things to a head. We

:59:14.:59:18.

definitely have to start discussing. Deidre, opposition a good thing?

:59:19.:59:21.

Absolutely. They will hold Government to account and there will

:59:22.:59:26.

be a voice, hopefully, for education. Just a final thought,

:59:27.:59:30.

we've been talking about parties fighting over education. It could

:59:31.:59:33.

become Wednesday the all running away from education board portfolio.

:59:34.:59:41.

There are problems and minefields. Clearly, a Government will be set

:59:42.:59:45.

up. These two parties have too realised the competition against

:59:46.:59:49.

them is not there. The DP looking over the shoulder, Sinn Fein looking

:59:50.:59:52.

over their shoulder, they have to stop doing that. -- DUP. That is it

:59:53.:59:56.

from all of it is therefore the public

:59:57.:59:58.

as well as serving a useful purpose To you both, thank you very much

:59:59.:00:02.

indeed. And with that, it is

:00:03.:00:04.

back to you, Andrew. Treasury warnings on Brexit,

:00:05.:00:08.

is Labour on course for 2020, and are there enough women

:00:09.:00:11.

in the referendum campaign? And joining me and my panel

:00:12.:00:13.

of so-called experts, is the former Deputy Leader

:00:14.:00:24.

of the Labour Party Harriet Harman. Wellcome, it is nice to see you

:00:25.:00:36.

again. The Treasury has already told us how bad the economy will be in

:00:37.:00:41.

2030, but nobody really knows. This is about, in their view, the

:00:42.:00:47.

immediate impact on interest rates, mortgages, jobs, house prices,

:00:48.:00:51.

before the autumn is out. This I would suggest is politically more

:00:52.:00:57.

significant? Yes, and it is absolutely the Remain campaign's

:00:58.:01:01.

biggest howitzer which is why they are firing it now. This is the last

:01:02.:01:09.

time they can deploy the full mast ranks of the government's resources

:01:10.:01:14.

into the campaign. Most people disagree passionately in this

:01:15.:01:17.

campaign about whether over the long-term the British economy will

:01:18.:01:20.

prosper or not outside the EU. Pretty much everybody, I think apart

:01:21.:01:25.

from Boris Johnson has admits it there might be some short-term

:01:26.:01:32.

problems. It is the same with retail. We have heard from the Prime

:01:33.:01:37.

Minister today. And mortgages, smacking people as hard as they can

:01:38.:01:43.

in their pockets. Even Boris Johnson said there would be a fall because

:01:44.:01:48.

he hopes it will go up. People may be nervous that when they get onto

:01:49.:01:52.

that tick it does not stop falling. It will be a difficult one for the

:01:53.:01:58.

Leave campaign? Guess, and I am picking up a lot of concern in the

:01:59.:02:03.

various Brexit camps. They look as if they have conceded the argument

:02:04.:02:08.

on the economy. Of course, they emphatically argue the opposite

:02:09.:02:11.

direction is that we can do even better out, but there is a lot of

:02:12.:02:14.

concern among those who want to leave, that those who are

:02:15.:02:17.

representing them in these campaigns, are not putting the

:02:18.:02:21.

argument strongly enough and are almost backing of it which is why we

:02:22.:02:25.

are hearing arguments about Turkey and immigration and other things. I

:02:26.:02:29.

think Leave has to come out really strongly and rebut what the Treasury

:02:30.:02:34.

is saying point by point, whether it is on food prices, and there is a

:02:35.:02:40.

compelling argument that the Common Agricultural Policy example

:02:41.:02:42.

massively distorts prices. Food may not be more expensive when we come

:02:43.:02:46.

out so we need to rebut it line by line. -- they need to rebut it. The

:02:47.:02:53.

polling suggests if you are worried about the economy you will more

:02:54.:02:58.

likely to vote Remain, if you are more worried about public services,

:02:59.:03:01.

you will be more likely to vote Leave. This will create a sense of

:03:02.:03:09.

economic uncertainty? Yes, and it will be interesting if they make a

:03:10.:03:14.

GDP prediction. We are talking about food prices and employment but will

:03:15.:03:17.

they predict a technical recession in GDP which I imagine will happen

:03:18.:03:22.

if we vote to leave. The Bank of England has admitted that is a

:03:23.:03:26.

possibility. I can think of people who are very high up in British

:03:27.:03:37.

public life who are downplaying their view about how bad the GDP

:03:38.:03:40.

crisis will be in the short-term. I agree with Isobel, it is strange to

:03:41.:03:42.

concede the short-term economic argument. You cannot say here is the

:03:43.:03:46.

reality of a short-term recession. In return, there is the prospect of

:03:47.:03:53.

a longer-term economic benefit which realises in 2030. Labour does not

:03:54.:03:59.

normally think very much of Tory forecasts. Will you accept this? We

:04:00.:04:03.

are very concerned about jobs and prices and we are very concerned

:04:04.:04:07.

about the cavalier sense that it might be a bit of a problem in the

:04:08.:04:11.

short-term but it will be fine in the long-term, two reasons.

:04:12.:04:16.

Obviously, the Treasury forecasts will be very well worth picking

:04:17.:04:20.

through and looking through and will be very persuasive. As far as the

:04:21.:04:24.

short-term is concerned, we are trying to find our way out of a

:04:25.:04:28.

global financial crisis, and the idea that it would not cause major

:04:29.:04:32.

uncertainty and instability to leave an economic union that we have been

:04:33.:04:39.

part of four decades, it is a no-brainer even before tomorrow. You

:04:40.:04:44.

think the short-term is a problem if we vote to leave? It will be a

:04:45.:04:50.

problem about jobs, a problem about prices. Why on earth would we want

:04:51.:04:55.

to try and distance ourselves from this biggest trading block of 500

:04:56.:05:00.

million people. Why would we want to struggle for keeping our head above

:05:01.:05:04.

water in the longer term when we are in the EU as we are? I think it is

:05:05.:05:09.

cavalier from people who are not worried about prices and to feel

:05:10.:05:12.

happy that their jobs are fine, let's make this bid for freedom. I

:05:13.:05:20.

think it is reckless. Reckless? I think there is an accession among

:05:21.:05:24.

the Remain camp and it is interesting that Harriet brings this

:05:25.:05:29.

up, constantly bringing up trade associations. We can trade without

:05:30.:05:34.

trade deals. We talk about the Remain camp focuses highly on the

:05:35.:05:39.

importance of the trade deals have, but we are a service economy run

:05:40.:05:43.

airily, and those trade deals do not cover the service sector. We can

:05:44.:05:47.

trade but if you look without trade deals, that means paying tariffs,

:05:48.:05:51.

for example. If you look at the food in our supermarkets which comes in

:05:52.:05:55.

from Europe, they can put tariffs on that to make it cost more, and why

:05:56.:06:01.

wouldn't they, if we opt out of that free trade area? They would not put

:06:02.:06:05.

tariffs on food coming into Britain. We might do that, but they would not

:06:06.:06:10.

do that. We would take off the tariffs from the food that comes

:06:11.:06:15.

from America, Australia and New Zealand. We are in an established

:06:16.:06:20.

range of trading which has been going on for decades and has seen

:06:21.:06:26.

food prices going down. That is a big issue if you are on a low

:06:27.:06:34.

income. Why would we take that risk? The former chief executives of

:06:35.:06:40.

supermarkets, and they have not got any skin in the game because they

:06:41.:06:44.

are former chief executives, they have said because of these

:06:45.:06:47.

established arrangements, prices are likely to go up. We will hear more

:06:48.:06:52.

of that this week with the Treasury report which is coming out tomorrow

:06:53.:06:57.

morning. Talking about the economy, let's hear a word from John

:06:58.:07:01.

McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor about Labour in the economy. This is

:07:02.:07:03.

what he had to say yesterday. Our whole society could do so much

:07:04.:07:08.

better than we are at the moment. What we have attempted over the last

:07:09.:07:11.

eight months is to lay out the framework by which Labour can

:07:12.:07:14.

win the next election, and then set about the fundamental

:07:15.:07:17.

business of transforming capitalism. We should aim at nothing

:07:18.:07:19.

less than that. So, socialism in one parliament,

:07:20.:07:31.

that must excite you? He is talking about a new economic policy which

:07:32.:07:36.

will talk about fairness and investment and he says we will be on

:07:37.:07:40.

a listening exercise as they put the flesh on the bones. He is talking

:07:41.:07:46.

about remaking capitalism, not reforming it, not liberalising it,

:07:47.:07:51.

remaking capitalism. Is that realistic? I think there is a bit of

:07:52.:07:57.

remaking to be done, for example, remaking the responsibilities of big

:07:58.:08:02.

businesses to repay their taxes, do we think it is all sorted? It is

:08:03.:08:10.

certainly not. Every government tells me they will put more

:08:11.:08:14.

apprentices and you look carefully and they don't really. This

:08:15.:08:19.

government, a lot of the apprentices are not what the Germans or

:08:20.:08:22.

Austrians would regard as apprentices. Chasing that tax seems

:08:23.:08:30.

to be in a never-ending chase as you try and close the loopholes. Because

:08:31.:08:35.

it has not necessarily been done so far, and all credit to Margaret

:08:36.:08:38.

Hodge and the Public Accounts Committee in exposing all of this,

:08:39.:08:41.

does not mean it cannot be done. We could have lots more investment if

:08:42.:08:47.

people paid their tax and we could have much more prosperity in the

:08:48.:08:52.

economy, but he is recognising we have to convince people that they

:08:53.:08:57.

can trust us on the economy. Are you happy with the direction he is

:08:58.:09:01.

taking you? I think the principles he is setting out is right. We got

:09:02.:09:05.

the wrong answer in the general election last time and we got to be

:09:06.:09:09.

the opposition rather than the government, and we have to get a

:09:10.:09:13.

different answer next time and that means convincing the public. It is

:09:14.:09:17.

about setting up a framework that also making sure we are listening to

:09:18.:09:22.

what the public's concerns are about us, not what we want to hear but

:09:23.:09:27.

what they are saying. You don't think there are enough women

:09:28.:09:31.

involved in the referendum campaign? Would it not be fair to say that it

:09:32.:09:36.

is really the Remain side which has the female problem. The Leave site

:09:37.:09:42.

has Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey, pretty Patel, Penny Mordaunt and so on. It

:09:43.:09:47.

is your side which is lacking the women -- pretty Patel. There is

:09:48.:09:57.

hardly anything between either side. Really? Could you do a list like

:09:58.:10:05.

that? One of the things we are saying is actually, being in the EU

:10:06.:10:11.

has helped back-up women at work. It is paradoxical, and it might seem

:10:12.:10:15.

unlikely, but the EU has been a strong friend to women at work and

:10:16.:10:19.

these directives which governments always do not like, either Labour or

:10:20.:10:24.

the Tories don't like the idea of directives from Europe, but they

:10:25.:10:29.

have been backing up part-time workers... I understand that but I

:10:30.:10:33.

am looking at the fact that you have said there are not enough female

:10:34.:10:37.

voices in the campaign. Do you agree with that? I would agree with you.

:10:38.:10:45.

The Leave women are pretty loud. Where is Theresa May? She is the

:10:46.:10:53.

single biggest female voice and she is almost mute. The idea that the

:10:54.:10:59.

Leave side is in some post feminist political nirvana is for the

:11:00.:11:03.

absolute birds. And I think of the Leave side I think of Boris Johnson

:11:04.:11:06.

and Nigel Farage and I cannot bear to think about it. I just gave you a

:11:07.:11:16.

list. And Iain Duncan Smith. Five prominent women campaigners. Are you

:11:17.:11:23.

saying they are a post feminist haven? No, I don't think they would

:11:24.:11:28.

know what that is. I am trying to work out if your side has more of a

:11:29.:11:33.

problem, but let's move on. You say the EU is a beacon of gender

:11:34.:11:38.

equality. I would like you to look at this. These are all the top jobs

:11:39.:11:43.

in the European Union. Something probably strikes you about that.

:11:44.:11:48.

Where is the gender equality in the EU in the top seven jobs? That is

:11:49.:11:53.

why it is an irony that actually, the directives and European court

:11:54.:11:58.

judgments have backed up women at work. Except in the EU itself? But

:11:59.:12:06.

if you look at the Treaty of Rome, which was very much ahead of its

:12:07.:12:09.

time, saying you have to pay women equally and treat women equally...

:12:10.:12:15.

It is do as I say, not as I do. It looks like a boys' club up there.

:12:16.:12:19.

And the other thing that strikes me about this row of men. Who are these

:12:20.:12:25.

people? Could you recognise all those people? Could you even

:12:26.:12:29.

recognise one of them? I do know who they are and I don't like the fact

:12:30.:12:35.

they are all men... That tells you about the EU and our sovereignty.

:12:36.:12:40.

No, it does not. The directives from Europe have backed up women at work,

:12:41.:12:44.

part-timers, low-paid women, women having babies. If our own government

:12:45.:12:49.

would have done it, more better. Why haven't they read the directives? I

:12:50.:12:56.

don't know who they are. That speaks for itself. They are the people you

:12:57.:12:59.

think should be running us and you don't know who they are! I am

:13:00.:13:04.

talking about the facts of the impact for women at work about us

:13:05.:13:10.

being in the EU and our rights on maternity and equal pay. The

:13:11.:13:14.

directives have helped us even when our own government have not. They do

:13:15.:13:21.

not seem to have got the message. You have picked them at random! No,

:13:22.:13:27.

they are not! Bayard the top seven jobs in the EU. Ranks to all our

:13:28.:13:36.

guests, good to see Harry it back. -- thanks to all our guests, good to

:13:37.:13:43.

see Harry it back. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday

:13:44.:13:46.

Politics, unless it is the Whitsun bank holiday.

:13:47.:13:52.

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