26/02/2017 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


26/02/2017

Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:43.:00:48.

Theresa May still has plenty on her plate,

:00:49.:00:49.

not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords.

:00:50.:00:51.

But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland,

:00:52.:00:53.

the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever.

:00:54.:00:55.

Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election,

:00:56.:00:57.

but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party

:00:58.:01:00.

The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live.

:01:01.:01:10.

You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden!

:01:11.:01:15.

And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact

:01:16.:01:21.

Four days to go until the election

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and the smaller parties say this is their big chance.

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In London, will the rise in council in the studio in half an hour.

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In London, will the rise in council tax in all but four local

:01:31.:01:33.

authorities be enough to alleviate the crisis in social care?

:01:34.:01:40.

And joining me for all of that, three journalists who I'm pleased

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to say have so far not been banned from the White House.

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I've tried banning them from this show repeatedly,

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but somehow they just keep getting past BBC security - it's Sam Coates,

:01:55.:01:57.

We have had two crucial by-elections, the results last

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Thursday night. It's now Sunday morning, where do they believe

:02:09.:02:12.

British politics? I think it leaves British politics looking as if it

:02:13.:02:17.

may go ahead without Ukip is a strong and robust force. It is

:02:18.:02:21.

difficult to see from where we are now how Ukip rebuilds into a

:02:22.:02:27.

credible vote winning operation. I think it looks unprofessional, the

:02:28.:02:32.

campaign they fought in Stoke was clearly winnable because the margin

:02:33.:02:35.

with which Labour held onto that seat was not an impressive one but

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they put forward arguably the wrong candidate, it was messy and it's

:02:40.:02:44.

hard to see where they go from here, particularly with the money problems

:02:45.:02:47.

they have and even Nigel Farage saying he's fed up of the party. If

:02:48.:02:53.

Isabel is right, if Ukip is no longer a major factor, you look at

:02:54.:03:00.

the state of Labour and the Lib Dems coming from a long way behind

:03:01.:03:05.

despite their local government by-election successes, Tories never

:03:06.:03:09.

more dominant. I think Theresa May is in a fascinating situation. She's

:03:10.:03:14.

the most powerful Prime Minister of modern times for now because she

:03:15.:03:19.

faces no confident, formidable opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher

:03:20.:03:24.

who in the 1980s, although she won landslides in the end, often looked

:03:25.:03:28.

like she was in trouble. She was inferred quite often in the build-up

:03:29.:03:35.

to the election. David Owen, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite

:03:36.:03:41.

often she was worried. At the moment Theresa May faces no formidable UK

:03:42.:03:46.

opposition. However, she is both strong and fragile because her

:03:47.:03:50.

agenda is Brexit, which I still think many have not got to grips

:03:51.:03:55.

with in terms of how complex and training and difficult it will be

:03:56.:04:00.

for her. Thatcher faced no equivalent to Brexit so she is both

:04:01.:04:05.

strong, formidably strong because of the wider UK political context, and

:04:06.:04:09.

very fragile. It is just when you think you have never been more

:04:10.:04:14.

dominant you are actually at the most dangerous, what can possibly go

:04:15.:04:19.

wrong? I think that the money of her MPs they haven't begun to think

:04:20.:04:22.

through the practicalities of Brexit and she does have a working majority

:04:23.:04:27.

of about 17 in the House of Commons so at any point she could be put

:04:28.:04:30.

under pressure from really opposition these days is done by the

:04:31.:04:34.

two wins inside the Conservative Party, either the 15 Europhiles or

:04:35.:04:42.

the bigger group of about 60 Brexiteers who have continued to

:04:43.:04:44.

operate as a united and disciplined force within the Conservative Party

:04:45.:04:49.

to get their agenda on the table. Either of those wings could be

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disappointed at any point in the next three and a half years and that

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would put her under pressure. I wouldn't completely rule out Ukip

:04:58.:05:02.

coming back. The reason Ukip lost in Stoke I think it's because at the

:05:03.:05:07.

moment Theresa May is delivering pretty much everything Ukip figures

:05:08.:05:13.

might want to see. We might find the phrase Brexit means Brexit quite

:05:14.:05:16.

anodyne but I think she is convincing people she will press

:05:17.:05:19.

ahead with their agenda and deliver the leave vote that people buy a

:05:20.:05:26.

slim majority voted for. Should that change, should there be talk of

:05:27.:05:29.

transition periods, shut the migration settlement not make people

:05:30.:05:34.

happy, then I think Ukip risks charging back up the centre ground

:05:35.:05:38.

and causing more problems in future. That could be a two year gap in

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which Ukip would have to survive. As I said, Ukip is on our agenda for

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today. Thursday was a big night

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for political obsessives like us, with not one but two

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significant by-elections, Ellie braved the wind and rain

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to bring you this report. The clouds had gathered,

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the winds blew at gale force. Was a change in the air, or just

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a weather system called Doris? Voters in Stoke-on-Trent

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were about to find out. It's here, a sports hall

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on a Thursday night that the country's media reckon

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is the true eye of the storm. Would Labour suffer a lightning

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strike to its very heart, or would the Ukip threat proved

:06:25.:06:26.

to be a damp squib? Everybody seems to think the result

:06:27.:06:29.

in Stoke-on-Trent would be close, just as they did 150-odd miles away

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in Copeland, where the Tories are counting on stealing another

:06:32.:06:35.

Labour heartland seat. Areas of high pressure in both

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places, and some strange sights. We knew this wasn't a normal

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by-election, and to prove it there is the rapper,

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Professor Green. Chart-toppers aside,

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winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade was announced first,

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where everyone was so excited the candidates didn't even make it

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onto the stage for the result. And I do hereby declare

:06:58.:07:01.

that the said Gareth Snell Nigel Farage has said that victory

:07:02.:07:05.

here in Stoke-on-Trent But Ukip's newish leader

:07:06.:07:13.

played down the defeat, insisting his party's

:07:14.:07:19.

time would come. Are you going to stand again

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as an MP or has this No doubt I will stand again,

:07:23.:07:28.

don't worry about that. The politics of hope beat

:07:29.:07:32.

the politics of fear. I think Ukip are the ones this

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weekend who have got But a few minutes later,

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it turned out Labour had Harrison, Trudy Lynn,

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the Conservative Party That was more than 2,000

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votes ahead of Labour. What has happened here tonight

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is a truly historic event. Labour were disappointed,

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but determined to be optimistic At a point when we're 15 to 18

:08:09.:08:10.

points behind in the polls... The Conservatives within 2000 votes

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I think is an incredible The morning after the night

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before, the losing parties were licking their wounds

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and their lips over breakfast. For years and years,

:08:31.:08:34.

Ukip was Nigel Farage, That has now changed,

:08:35.:08:38.

that era has gone. It's a new era, it is

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a second age for us. So that needs to be

:08:45.:08:47.

more fully embedded, it needs to be more defined,

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you know, and that will We have to continue to improve

:08:53.:08:54.

in seats where we have stood. As we have done here,

:08:55.:09:04.

we've improved on our 2015 result, that's what important,

:09:05.:09:06.

is that we are taking steps Can I be the first to come

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here today to congratulate you on being elected the new MP

:09:09.:09:13.

for Stoke on Trent Central. Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived

:09:14.:09:16.

in Stoke to welcome his newest MP. Not sure he's going to

:09:17.:09:20.

Copeland later though. Earlier in the day, the Labour

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leader had made clear he'd considered and discounted some

:09:25.:09:28.

theories about the party's Since you found out that you'd lost

:09:29.:09:30.

a seat to a governing party for the first time

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since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning

:09:37.:09:40.

looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question -

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could the problem actually be me? In the end it was the Conservatives

:09:44.:09:47.

who came out on top. No governing party has made

:09:48.:09:55.

a gain at a by-election With the self-styled people's army

:09:56.:09:57.

of Ukip halted in Stoke, and Labour's wash-out

:09:58.:10:03.

here in Copeland... There's little chance of rain

:10:04.:10:08.

on Theresa May's parade. In the wake of that loss in

:10:09.:10:19.

Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party has been meeting for its spring

:10:20.:10:22.

conference in the Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson

:10:23.:10:24.

warned delegates that unless Labour took the by-election defeat

:10:25.:10:29.

seriously, the party's devastation in Scotland could be repeated

:10:30.:10:31.

south of the border. Well, I'm joined now

:10:32.:10:35.

by the leader of Scottish Labour, Even after your party had lost

:10:36.:10:50.

Copeland to the Tories and with Labour now trailing 16 points in the

:10:51.:10:54.

UK polls, you claim to have every faith that Jeremy Corbyn would

:10:55.:10:59.

absolutely win the general election. What evidence can you bring to

:11:00.:11:06.

support that? There is no doubt the result in Copeland was disappointing

:11:07.:11:09.

for the Labour Party and I think it's a collective feeling for

:11:10.:11:13.

everyone within the Labour Party and I want to do what I can to turn

:11:14.:11:16.

around the fortunes of our party. That's what I've committed to do

:11:17.:11:19.

while I have been the Scottish Labour leader. This two years ago we

:11:20.:11:26.

were down the mines so to speak in terms of losing the faith of working

:11:27.:11:30.

class communities across the country, but we listened very hard

:11:31.:11:34.

to the message voters are sending and responded to it. That's what I'm

:11:35.:11:38.

committed to doing in Scotland and that's what Jeremy Corbyn is

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committed to doing UK wide. The latest polls put Labour at 14% in

:11:45.:11:50.

Scotland, the Tories at ten points ahead of you in Scotland, even

:11:51.:11:55.

Theresa May is more popular than Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will

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try again - why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn could win a general

:12:02.:12:05.

election? What I said when you are talking about Scotland is that I'm

:12:06.:12:09.

the leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I take responsibility for

:12:10.:12:14.

our policies here. Voters said very clearly after the Scottish

:12:15.:12:16.

Parliament election that they didn't have a clear enough sense of what we

:12:17.:12:20.

stood for so I have been advocating a very strong anti-austerity

:12:21.:12:24.

platform, coming up with ideas of how we can oppose the cuts and

:12:25.:12:28.

invest in our future. That is something Jeremy Corbyn also

:12:29.:12:31.

supports but I've also made it clear this weekend that we are opposed to

:12:32.:12:38.

a second independence referendum. I want to bring Scotland back together

:12:39.:12:42.

by focusing on the future and that's why I have been speaking about the

:12:43.:12:47.

federal solution for the UK. I know that Jeremy Corbyn shares that

:12:48.:12:50.

ambition because he is backing the plans for a people's Constitutional

:12:51.:12:54.

Convention. Yes, these are difficult times for the Scottish Labour Party

:12:55.:13:01.

and UK family, but I have a plan in place to turn things around. It will

:13:02.:13:07.

take time though. I'm still not sure why you are so sure the Labour party

:13:08.:13:12.

can win but let me come onto your plan. You want a UK wide

:13:13.:13:16.

Constitutional Convention and that lead to a new Federalist settlement.

:13:17.:13:23.

Is it the policy of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to

:13:24.:13:29.

carve England into federal regions? What we support at a UK wide level

:13:30.:13:33.

is the people's constitutional convention. I have been careful to

:13:34.:13:37.

prescribe what I think is in the best interests of Scotland but not

:13:38.:13:40.

to dictate to other parts of the UK what is good for them, that's the

:13:41.:13:45.

point of the people's constitutional convention. You heard Tom Watson say

:13:46.:13:50.

there has to be a UK wide conversation about power, who has it

:13:51.:13:54.

and how it is exercised across England. England hasn't been part of

:13:55.:13:58.

this devolution story over the last 20 years, it is something that

:13:59.:14:03.

happened between Scotland and London or Wales and London. No wonder

:14:04.:14:07.

people in England feel disenfranchised from that. What

:14:08.:14:10.

evidence can you bring to show there is any appetite in England for an

:14:11.:14:17.

English federal solution to England, to carve England into federal

:14:18.:14:21.

regions? Have you spoken to John Prescott about this? He might tell

:14:22.:14:24.

you some of the difficulties. There's not even a debate about that

:14:25.:14:30.

here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy. I speak to John Prescott regularly.

:14:31.:14:35.

What there is a debate about is the idea the world is changing so fast

:14:36.:14:38.

that globalisation is taking jobs away from communities in the

:14:39.:14:42.

north-east, that many working class communities feel left behind, that

:14:43.:14:47.

Westminster feels very far away and the politicians within it feel

:14:48.:14:50.

remote in part of the establishment. People are fed up with power being

:14:51.:14:54.

exercised somewhere else, that's where I think federalism comes in

:14:55.:14:57.

because it's about bringing power closer to people and in many ways

:14:58.:15:01.

it's forced on us because of Brexit. We know the United Kingdom is

:15:02.:15:10.

leaving the European Union so we have to talk about the repatriation

:15:11.:15:12.

of those powers from Brussels to Britain. I want many of those powers

:15:13.:15:15.

to go to the Scottish parliament but where should they go in the English

:15:16.:15:17.

context? It is not as things currently stand the policy of the

:15:18.:15:22.

English Labour Party to carve England into federal regions,

:15:23.:15:22.

correct? It is absolutely the policy of the

:15:23.:15:32.

UK Labour Party to support the people's Constitutional convention

:15:33.:15:37.

to examining these questions. I think it is really important. You're

:15:38.:15:41.

promising the Scottish people a federal solution, and you have not

:15:42.:15:45.

even squared your own party for a federal solution in England. That is

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not true. The UK Labour Party is united on this. I am going to

:15:51.:15:53.

Cardiff next month to meet with Carwyn Jones and various leaders.

:15:54.:15:58.

United on a federal solution? You know as well as I know it is not

:15:59.:16:02.

united on a federal solution. We will have a conversation about power

:16:03.:16:07.

in this country. It is not united on that

:16:08.:16:31.

issue? This is the direction of travel. It is what you heard

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yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom Watson, when you hear from people

:16:35.:16:37.

like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle City Council and Labour's Local

:16:38.:16:39.

Government Association. There is an appetite for talking about power.

:16:40.:16:41.

Talking is one thing. We need to have this conversation across the

:16:42.:16:43.

whole of the United Kingdom, to have a reformed United Kingdom. It is a

:16:44.:16:46.

conversation you're offering Scotland, not the policy. Let's come

:16:47.:16:48.

onto the labour made of London. He was in power for your conference. He

:16:49.:16:51.

wrote in the record yesterday, there is no difference between Scottish

:16:52.:16:53.

nationalism and racism. Would you like this opportunity to distance

:16:54.:16:56.

yourself from that absurd claim? I think that Sadiq Khan was very clear

:16:57.:17:01.

yesterday that he was not accusing the SNP of racism. What he was

:17:02.:17:06.

saying clearly is that nationalism by its very nature divides people

:17:07.:17:10.

and communities. That is what I said in my speech yesterday. I am fed up

:17:11.:17:15.

living in a divided and fractured country and society. Our politics is

:17:16.:17:19.

forcing is constantly to pick sides, whether you're a no, leave a remain,

:17:20.:17:24.

it brings out the worst in our politicians and politics. All the

:17:25.:17:28.

consensus we find in the grey areas is lost. That is why am standing

:17:29.:17:33.

under a banner that together we are stronger. We have to come up with

:17:34.:17:47.

ideas and focus on the future. That is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He

:17:48.:17:51.

said quite clearly in the Daily Record yesterday, and that the last

:17:52.:17:54.

minute he adapted his speech to your conference yesterday, to try and

:17:55.:17:56.

reduce the impact, that there was no difference between Scottish

:17:57.:17:59.

nationalism and racism. Your colleague, and Sarwar, said that

:18:00.:18:02.

even after he had tried to introduce the caveats, all forms of

:18:03.:18:06.

nationalism rely on creating eyes and them. Let's call it for what it

:18:07.:18:14.

is. So you are implying that the Scottish Nationalists are racist.

:18:15.:18:18.

Would you care to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I utterly

:18:19.:18:22.

refute that that is what Sadiq Khan said. I would never suggest that the

:18:23.:18:29.

SNP are an inherently racist party. That does is a disservice. He did

:18:30.:18:34.

not see it. What he did say, however, is that nationalism is

:18:35.:18:38.

divisive. You know that better than anyone. I see your Twitter account.

:18:39.:18:42.

Regularly your attack for the job you do as a journalist. Politics in

:18:43.:18:48.

Scotland is divided on. I do not want to revisit that independence

:18:49.:18:53.

question again for that reason. As leader of the Labour Party, I want

:18:54.:18:56.

to bring our country back together, appeal to people who voted yes and

:18:57.:19:02.

no. That banner, together we are stronger, that is where the answers

:19:03.:19:06.

lie in defaulters can be found. If in response to the Mayor of London,

:19:07.:19:10.

your colleague says, let's call it out for what it is, what is he

:19:11.:19:15.

referring to if he is not implying that national symbol is racist? --

:19:16.:19:23.

and that nationalism is racist? He is saying that it leads to divisive

:19:24.:19:27.

politics. The Labour Party has always advocated that together we

:19:28.:19:31.

are stronger. Saying something is divisive is very different from

:19:32.:19:36.

saying something is racist. That is what the Mayor of London said. That

:19:37.:19:39.

is what your colleague was referring to. He did not. You would really

:19:40.:19:44.

struggle to quote that from the Mayor of London. He talked about

:19:45.:19:50.

being divided by race. What does that mean? I think he was very clear

:19:51.:19:56.

that he was talking about divided politics. There is an appetite the

:19:57.:20:00.

length and breadth of the country to end that divisive politics. That is

:20:01.:20:05.

what I stand for, focusing on the future, bringing people back

:20:06.:20:09.

together, concentrating on what the economy might look like in 20 years'

:20:10.:20:13.

time in coming up with ideas to tackle it today. Thank you for

:20:14.:20:14.

joining us. Thursday's win for Labour

:20:15.:20:16.

in Stoke-on-Trent Central gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn,

:20:17.:20:17.

but for Ukip leader and defeated Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall

:20:18.:20:20.

there were no consolation prizes. I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's

:20:21.:20:22.

principal political Welcome to the programme. Good

:20:23.:20:33.

morning. How long will Paul Nuttall survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks,

:20:34.:20:36.

months? You are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip

:20:37.:20:42.

was formed in 1993 with the express purpose, much mocked, of getting

:20:43.:20:47.

Britain out of the European Union. Under the brilliant leadership of

:20:48.:20:51.

Nigel Farage, we were crucial in forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to

:20:52.:20:55.

make a referendum promise he did not want to give. With our friends in

:20:56.:21:00.

Fort leave and other organisations. Mac we know that. Get to the answer.

:21:01.:21:07.

We helped to win that referendum. The iteration of Ukip at the moment

:21:08.:21:11.

that we're in, the primary purpose, we are the guard dog of Brexit.

:21:12.:21:17.

Viewed through that prism, the Stoke by-election was a brilliant success.

:21:18.:21:21.

A brilliant success? We had the Tory candidate that had pumped out

:21:22.:21:26.

publicity for Remain, for Cameron Bradley, preaching the gospel of

:21:27.:21:30.

Brexit. We had a Labour candidate and we know what he really felt

:21:31.:21:35.

about Brexit, preaching the Gospel according to Brexit. You lost. Well

:21:36.:21:37.

the by-election was going on, we had the Labour Party in the House of

:21:38.:21:54.

Commons pass the idea of trickling Article 50 by a landslide. Are

:21:55.:21:57.

passionate thing, the thing that 35,000 Ukip members care about the

:21:58.:21:59.

most, it is an extraordinary achievement. I am very proud. What

:22:00.:22:01.

would you have described as victory as? If we could have got Paul

:22:02.:22:04.

Nuttall into the House of Commons, that would have been a fantastic

:22:05.:22:08.

cherry on the top. Losing was an extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip

:22:09.:22:13.

supporters the Stoke was winnable, but Paul Nuttall's campaign was

:22:14.:22:20.

marred by controversy, Tory voters refuse to vote tactically for Ukip

:22:21.:22:27.

to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr Nuttall is to blame for not winning

:22:28.:22:31.

what was a winnable seat? I do not see that at all. This is

:22:32.:22:35.

counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn did do one thing that made it more

:22:36.:22:40.

difficult for us to win. Fantasy. That was to take Labour into a

:22:41.:22:45.

Brexit position formerly. Just over 50 Labour MPs had voted against

:22:46.:22:51.

triggering Article 50. In political terms, we have intimidated the

:22:52.:22:54.

Labour Party into backing Brexit. How much good is it doing you? It

:22:55.:22:56.

comes to the heart of the problem your party faces.

:22:57.:23:13.

You're struggling to win Tory Eurosceptic voters. For the moment,

:23:14.:23:16.

they seem happy with Theresa May. Stoke shows you're not winning

:23:17.:23:18.

Labour Brexit voters either. If you cannot get the solution Tolisso

:23:19.:23:20.

labour, where does your Broad come from? In terms of the by-election,

:23:21.:23:22.

it came very early for Paul. I'm talking about the future. We have a

:23:23.:23:25.

future agenda, and ideological argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour

:23:26.:23:30.

Party, which is wedded to the notion of global citizenship and does not

:23:31.:23:35.

recognise the nation state. We know he spent Christmas sitting around

:23:36.:23:38.

campfires with Mexican Marxist dreaming of global government. We

:23:39.:23:43.

believe in the nation state. We believe that the patriotic working

:23:44.:23:45.

class vote will be receptive to that. Your Broad went down by 9% in

:23:46.:23:52.

Cortland. In Copeland we were squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable

:23:53.:23:57.

to squeeze the Tories, who are on a high. Our agenda is that social

:23:58.:24:03.

solidarity is important but we arrange it in this country by nation

:24:04.:24:07.

and community. We want an immigration system that is not only

:24:08.:24:12.

reducing... We know what you want. I do not think people do. You had a

:24:13.:24:16.

whole by-election to tell people and they did not vote for you and. When

:24:17.:24:21.

Nigel Farage said it was fundamental that you were winner in Stoke, he

:24:22.:24:26.

was wrong? Nigel chooses his own words. I would not rewrite them. It

:24:27.:24:33.

would be a massive advantage to Ukip to have a leader in the House of

:24:34.:24:37.

Commons in time to reply to the budget, Prime Minister's questions

:24:38.:24:40.

and all of that. But we have taken the strategic view that we will

:24:41.:24:43.

fight the Labour Party for the working class vote. It is also true

:24:44.:24:47.

that the Conservatives will make a pitch for the working class vote

:24:48.:24:51.

might as well. All three parties have certain advantages and

:24:52.:24:56.

disadvantages. As part of that page, Nigel Farage said that your leader,

:24:57.:25:00.

Paul Nuttall, should have taken a clear, by which I assume he meant

:25:01.:25:05.

tough, line on immigration. Do you agree? He took a tough line on

:25:06.:25:11.

immigration. He developed that idea at our party conference in the

:25:12.:25:15.

spring. Nigel Farage did not think so? Nigel Farage made his speech

:25:16.:25:18.

before Paul Nuttall made his speech. He said this in the aftermath of the

:25:19.:25:25.

result. Once we have freedom to control and Borders, Paul wants to

:25:26.:25:31.

set up an immigration system that includes an aptitude test, do you

:25:32.:25:35.

have skills that the British economy needs, but also, and attitudes test,

:25:36.:25:41.

do you subscribe to core British values such as gender equality and

:25:42.:25:46.

freedom of expression? We will be making these arguments. It is

:25:47.:25:49.

certainly true that Paul's campaign was thrown off course by,

:25:50.:25:54.

particularly something that we knew the Labour Party had been preparing

:25:55.:26:00.

to run, the smear on the untruths, the implications about Hillsborough.

:26:01.:26:03.

If you knew you should have anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps

:26:04.:26:09.

to bankroll your party, he said that Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the

:26:10.:26:14.

Tory cabal in Europe, by which he means Douglas Carswell, Neil

:26:15.:26:17.

Hamilton. Should they be stripped of their membership? Of course not. As

:26:18.:26:23.

far as I knew, Alan Banks was a member of the Conservative Party

:26:24.:26:26.

formally. I do not know who this Tory cabal is supposed to be. He

:26:27.:26:30.

says that your party is more like a jumble sale than a political party.

:26:31.:26:35.

He says that the party should make him chairman or they will work. What

:26:36.:26:41.

do you see to that? He has made that statement several times over many

:26:42.:26:43.

months, including if you do not throw out your only MP. Douglas

:26:44.:26:48.

Carswell has managed to win twice under Ukip colours. Should Tibi

:26:49.:26:53.

chairman? I think we have an excellent young chairman at the

:26:54.:26:59.

moment. He is doing a good job. The idea that Leave.EU was as smooth

:27:00.:27:05.

running brilliant machine, that does not sit with the facts as I

:27:06.:27:08.

understand them. Suzanne Evans says it would be no great loss for Ukip

:27:09.:27:12.

if Mr Banks walked out, severed his ties and took his money elsewhere.

:27:13.:27:17.

Is she right. I am always happy people who want to give money and

:27:18.:27:21.

support your party want to stay in the party. The best donors donate

:27:22.:27:25.

and do not seek to dictate. If they are experts in certain fields,

:27:26.:27:30.

people should listen to their views but to have a daughter telling the

:27:31.:27:33.

party leader who should be party chairman, that is a nonstarter. You

:27:34.:27:39.

have described your existing party chairman is excellent. He said it

:27:40.:27:44.

could be 20 years before Ukip wins by-election. Is he being too

:27:45.:27:48.

optimistic? There is a general election coming up in the years'

:27:49.:27:52.

time. We will be aiming to win seats in that. Before that, we will be the

:27:53.:27:57.

guard dog for Brexit, to make sure this extraordinary achievement of a

:27:58.:28:02.

little party... You are guard dog without a kennel, you cannot get

:28:03.:28:06.

seat? We're keeping the big establishment parties to do the will

:28:07.:28:11.

of the people. If we achieve nothing else at all, that will be a

:28:12.:28:14.

magnificent achievement. Thank you very much.

:28:15.:28:16.

Sweden isn't somewhere we talk about often

:28:17.:28:18.

should because this week it was pulled into

:28:19.:28:21.

the global spotlight, thanks

:28:22.:28:22.

Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked for referring to an incident that

:28:23.:28:31.

had occurred last night in Sweden as a result of the country's open

:28:32.:28:35.

Critics were quick to point out that no such incident had occurred

:28:36.:28:38.

and Mr Trump later clarified on Twitter and he was talking

:28:39.:28:41.

about a report he had watched on Fox News.

:28:42.:28:44.

But as if to prove he was onto something,

:28:45.:28:47.

next day a riot broke out in a Stockholm suburb

:28:48.:28:49.

with a large migrant population, following unrest in such areas

:28:50.:28:51.

So what has been Sweden's experience of migration?

:28:52.:29:01.

In 2015, a record 162,000 people claimed asylum there, the second

:29:02.:29:04.

That number dropped to 29,000 in 2016 after the country introduced

:29:05.:29:11.

border restrictions and stopped offering permanent

:29:12.:29:12.

Tensions have risen, along with claims of links to crime,

:29:13.:29:20.

although official statistics do not provide evidence of a refugee driven

:29:21.:29:23.

Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump, claiming this week that migrants

:29:24.:29:32.

have led to a dramatic rise in sexual offences.

:29:33.:29:34.

Although the country does have the highest reported

:29:35.:29:36.

rate of rape in Europe, Swedish authorities say recent rises

:29:37.:29:39.

were due to changes to how rape and sex crimes are recorded.

:29:40.:29:44.

Aside from the issue of crime, Sweden has struggled

:29:45.:29:46.

Levels of inequality between natives and migrants when it comes

:29:47.:29:52.

Unemployment rates are three times higher for foreign-born workers

:29:53.:29:56.

We're joined now by Laila Naraghi, she's a Swedish MP from the

:29:57.:30:08.

governing Social Democratic Party, and by the author and

:30:09.:30:10.

The Swedish political establishment was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks,

:30:11.:30:26.

pointing to a riot that hadn't taken place, then a few nights later

:30:27.:30:30.

serious riots did break out in a largely migrant suburb of Stockholm

:30:31.:30:35.

so he wasn't far out, was he? I think he was far out because he is

:30:36.:30:40.

misleading the public with how he uses these statistics. I think it is

:30:41.:30:45.

important to remember that the violence has decreased in Sweden for

:30:46.:30:49.

the past 20 years and research shows there is no evidence that indicate

:30:50.:30:52.

that immigration leads to crime and so I think it is far out. The social

:30:53.:31:01.

unrest in these different areas is not because of their ethical

:31:02.:31:04.

backgrounds of these people living there but more about social economic

:31:05.:31:11.

reasons. OK, no evidence migrants are responsible for any kind of

:31:12.:31:15.

crime? This story reminds me after what happened to the Charlie Hebdo

:31:16.:31:23.

attacks in Paris when also a Fox News commentator said something that

:31:24.:31:28.

was outlandish about Paris and the Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox

:31:29.:31:32.

News, saying you are making our city look bad. It's a bit like that

:31:33.:31:37.

because the truth on this lies between Donald Trump on the Swedish

:31:38.:31:41.

authorities on this. Sweden and Swedish government is very reluctant

:31:42.:31:47.

to admit any downsides of its own migration policy and particularly

:31:48.:31:50.

the migration it hard in 2015 but there are very obvious downsides

:31:51.:31:56.

because Sweden is not a country that needs a non-skilled labour force

:31:57.:32:02.

which doesn't speak Swedish. What was raised as the matter of

:32:03.:32:07.

evidence, what is the evidence? First of all if I can say so the

:32:08.:32:11.

rape statistics in Sweden that have been cited are familiar with the

:32:12.:32:14.

rape statistics across other countries that have seen similar

:32:15.:32:19.

forms of migration. Danish authorities and the Norwegian

:32:20.:32:23.

authorities have recorded a similar thing. It is not done by ethnicity

:32:24.:32:28.

so we don't know. And this is part of the problem. It is again a lot of

:32:29.:32:34.

lies and rumours going about. When it is about for example rape, it is

:32:35.:32:40.

difficult to compare the statistics because in Sweden for example many

:32:41.:32:45.

crimes that in other countries are labelled as bodily harm or assault

:32:46.:32:50.

are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also how it is counted because if a woman

:32:51.:32:55.

goes to the police and reports that her husband or boyfriend has raped

:32:56.:33:03.

her, and done it every night for one year, in Sweden that is counted as

:33:04.:33:08.

365 offences. Something is going wrong, I look at the recent news

:33:09.:33:13.

from Sweden. Six Afghan child refugees committed suicide in the

:33:14.:33:16.

last six months, unemployment among recent migrants now five times

:33:17.:33:22.

higher than among non-migrants. We have seen gang violence in Malmo

:33:23.:33:28.

where a British child was killed by a grenade, rioting in Stockholm.

:33:29.:33:32.

Police in Sweden say there are 53 areas of the country where it is now

:33:33.:33:36.

dangerous to patrol. Something has gone wrong. Let me get back to what

:33:37.:33:43.

I think is the core of this debate if I may and that is the right for

:33:44.:33:48.

people fleeing war and political persecution to seek asylum, that is

:33:49.:33:52.

a human right. In Sweden we don't think we can do everything, but we

:33:53.:33:57.

want to live up to our obligation, every country has an obligation to

:33:58.:34:01.

receive asylum seekers. But you have changed your policy on that because

:34:02.:34:06.

having taken 163,001 year alone, you have then closed your borders, I

:34:07.:34:10.

think very wisely, closed the border which means 10,000 people per day at

:34:11.:34:16.

one point were walking from Denmark in to Malmo, you rightly changed

:34:17.:34:21.

that so he realised whatever ones aspirations in

:34:22.:34:31.

And there we leave our colleagues in London -

:34:32.:34:34.

welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:34:35.:34:35.

In five days' time counting will be under way to decide

:34:36.:34:38.

who makes it to Stormont - and how big a voice

:34:39.:34:41.

The reason the election's happening, and the issues on which people

:34:42.:34:45.

will vote, vary depending on who you talk to.

:34:46.:34:47.

For some it's all about the RHI controversy, the equality agenda

:34:48.:34:50.

and mutual respect - for others it's about shoring up

:34:51.:34:53.

the Stormont project and securing Northern Ireland's place in the UK.

:34:54.:34:57.

from the Green Party, People Before Profit,

:34:58.:35:01.

the TUV and the Independent candidate, Claire Sugden,

:35:02.:35:03.

who's still serving as the Justice Minister, of course.

:35:04.:35:10.

So just a few days of campaigning left and for the smaller parties,

:35:11.:35:14.

an opportunity like no other, so we're told, to make gains.

:35:15.:35:17.

There's been a noticeable rise in people engaging

:35:18.:35:19.

with the debate so far, but will that translate

:35:20.:35:21.

With me today are Steven Agnew, the leader of the Green Party,

:35:22.:35:25.

Fiona Ferguson who's a candidate for People Before Profit,

:35:26.:35:28.

and Jim Allister, the leader of the TUV,

:35:29.:35:30.

Thanks to you all - and now for a look back at the week

:35:31.:35:35.

Steven Agnew, what have people wanted to talk about? People have

:35:36.:36:01.

wanted to talk about RHI. As the only party that provided any

:36:02.:36:06.

solutions, while others were saying something must be done, the Green

:36:07.:36:12.

Party proposed what we believe could be fair, legal, unlike the proposal

:36:13.:36:20.

which is likely to be proven to be illegal and a publicity stunt. You

:36:21.:36:27.

see giving your number one to a Green Party candidate is not wasted,

:36:28.:36:32.

it will be transferred to who you put second. One of the stories as

:36:33.:36:37.

transfers and what people do with second preferences. Who should

:36:38.:36:41.

people put second in The View of the Green Party? "He Is campaigning for

:36:42.:36:47.

people to put as number one. After that it is constituency by

:36:48.:36:51.

constituency. I am not going to back another party. But other party best

:36:52.:36:55.

represents Green Party values? Before I got involved in the Green

:36:56.:37:01.

Party I did not think politics reflectiveness of the only party

:37:02.:37:04.

that reflects my values as the Green Party, but people will make that

:37:05.:37:09.

judgment constituency by constituency, my constituency has a

:37:10.:37:14.

very strong Independent candidate. Jim Allister, from TUV, how do you

:37:15.:37:19.

persuade voters this is an election where it is worth casting a vote? I

:37:20.:37:25.

remind them of the mess that Stormont as Ben and if they do the

:37:26.:37:28.

same again by voting for the big parties they will get more of the

:37:29.:37:36.

season. I ask, is that working? You do get what you vote for. If people

:37:37.:37:41.

are happy they need to show it. There is no better way of showing

:37:42.:37:46.

Disney and discontent than by voting TUV, because TUV has been that thorn

:37:47.:37:54.

in the side but Stormont, and that is a message that resonates, there

:37:55.:38:01.

is realisation that we cannot go on from crisis to crisis. There is a

:38:02.:38:06.

reason why the system is not working. Sinn Fein has never been in

:38:07.:38:10.

Government in order to make Northern Ireland work and any system that has

:38:11.:38:15.

them as part of Government will not work. If we cannot fix that we

:38:16.:38:19.

cannot fix Stormont if we cannot fix Stormont to be a better off without

:38:20.:38:23.

it. The difficulty for TUV is that you have made that case at previous

:38:24.:38:26.

elections and you have never had the breakthrough that you have been

:38:27.:38:31.

looking for. You continue to be, or you were, the only member for your

:38:32.:38:36.

party in the past. While you have support across the country it is

:38:37.:38:49.

spread thinly. In the European elections 75,000 people voted for

:38:50.:38:54.

TUV. If you want to be hard and make a difference make sure you vote TUV

:38:55.:39:00.

number one. He got 75,000 at European elections but 24,000 in

:39:01.:39:05.

2016. People have seen what one determined voice can do at Stormont,

:39:06.:39:12.

and how much more we could do. But the pattern at Stormont as perpetual

:39:13.:39:19.

failure, one crisis after another. You have the squander, the shambles,

:39:20.:39:25.

and of people like that they should not fought TUV, they should vote for

:39:26.:39:28.

the party they have voted for in the past and it will not be disappointed

:39:29.:39:31.

that they will get more of the scene. If you are fed up with that,

:39:32.:39:37.

bought for TUV. Fiona Ferguson from People Before Profit, what are

:39:38.:39:41.

people telling you that they are concerned about. It changes from

:39:42.:39:46.

area to area, but he is that come up daily that have not been addressed,

:39:47.:39:51.

health care, housing, disability rights, that are not being dealt

:39:52.:40:01.

with. Not RHI? RHI comes up but for working-class areas the issues of

:40:02.:40:06.

the day are issues that have been systematically failed, that history

:40:07.:40:09.

people have been failed for the last ten years and they want to know what

:40:10.:40:12.

someone is going to do to change that. Do you accept that the

:40:13.:40:16.

challenge for your party is to go back with the two seeds you got last

:40:17.:40:24.

time? Arguably this election has come too soon. In a shrunken

:40:25.:40:28.

Assembly you would do well to keep to MLAs. This... The establishment

:40:29.:40:37.

parties are terrified of the impact that the public can have in this

:40:38.:40:41.

election, and you can see that in the campaigns that have been run

:40:42.:40:46.

against People Before Profit, leaflets being delivered on Mars

:40:47.:40:53.

across the north, against people before profit. We think we can make

:40:54.:41:02.

gains. People want to see change. Claire Sugden, your decision to

:41:03.:41:05.

accept the position of justice minister was because you told us you

:41:06.:41:09.

were convinced the DUP and Sinn Fein were serious about working in

:41:10.:41:13.

partnership to make Stormont work, ten months later do you feel let

:41:14.:41:17.

down? I feel entirely flicked down. I did ask Martin McGuinness and

:41:18.:41:22.

Arlene Foster to let me do my job and by bringing down the Assembly I

:41:23.:41:29.

have not been able to do that. Uses to meet famously that day, you had

:41:30.:41:33.

no wish list, you made an error. You should have had a wish list, do you

:41:34.:41:39.

accept that? I do not accept that. I was not in any position nor was any

:41:40.:41:43.

other party to have a wish list. The Alliance Party had a wish list. The

:41:44.:41:47.

other two parties would not agree to it, so they are not in the pickle

:41:48.:41:51.

that you are in. I am not in a pickle The. Ten months I have been

:41:52.:41:55.

justice minister, I have been trying to change things but we do in the

:41:56.:42:01.

executive. Granted it has collapsed. That is something I am not happy

:42:02.:42:06.

with. If you find yourself re-elected and in the same position,

:42:07.:42:11.

you originally called them the jokers, ID the jokers again? I did

:42:12.:42:15.

not do a U-turn. I was offered an opportunity to be justice minister.

:42:16.:42:19.

When you stand as a Independent candidate you do not aspire to be a

:42:20.:42:25.

minister, only the justice minister is possible, I took the decision to

:42:26.:42:29.

get a seat at the executive table for my constituency. You told us

:42:30.:42:36.

that the system was no fixed. You said that fair start would work. But

:42:37.:42:41.

you have confidence in the DUP and Sinn Fein. Your own testimony today

:42:42.:42:45.

is how wrong you were and how incapable of working the system is.

:42:46.:42:50.

You tried it. It failed. You cannot go on simply trying to put sticking

:42:51.:42:54.

plaster over a system that will never feel. The reason it is feeling

:42:55.:42:58.

is at the heart of that Government is a party determined that Northern

:42:59.:43:02.

Ireland will not succeed. Do you accept that, clear Sugden, that you

:43:03.:43:09.

are partly responsible for shoring up a system that was never going to

:43:10.:43:15.

work? Are they not accepted the justice ministry last year we would

:43:16.:43:17.

have found ourselves in another election. The people of Northern

:43:18.:43:23.

Ireland want us to do our job, get on governing. I have heard people

:43:24.:43:28.

talking about this election being a referendum for RHI. That is

:43:29.:43:33.

irresponsible. When those responsible and RHI are held to

:43:34.:43:37.

account we still need hospitals, schools, we are responsible for

:43:38.:43:41.

running this country, no really need X-Pac, we are telling people to vote

:43:42.:43:44.

because one party is better than the other. One country -- one party

:43:45.:43:50.

cannot do a better job than another in terms of running the country. If

:43:51.:43:56.

you find yourself in the same position again, offered the justice

:43:57.:44:04.

ministry as an independent MLA would you take it? I want to finish the

:44:05.:44:08.

job I started. To change the lives of the people of this country. I

:44:09.:44:13.

would not turn down an opportunity of my constituency of East London

:44:14.:44:16.

Delhi to have a seat at the executive table. You would prop up

:44:17.:44:23.

the jokers again. Let us move back to Steven Agnew. I want to talk

:44:24.:44:26.

about Brexit. The Green Party said they would protect Northern Ireland

:44:27.:44:31.

from Brexit. What does this mean? It needs to be protected from the

:44:32.:44:35.

consequences of Brexit, which means Northern Ireland is being put at

:44:36.:44:39.

significant disadvantage. Particular circumstances where we have the

:44:40.:44:42.

border with another EU country. But we do accept that is happening. Why

:44:43.:44:47.

I am taking the Dublin case, which will establish whether or not

:44:48.:44:51.

Article 50 is reversible, I believe in arguing that it is, is that we

:44:52.:44:55.

can have a meaningful referendum on the Brexit deal. At the minute we

:44:56.:44:59.

have done is agreed to sell the House, we have not agreed the place.

:45:00.:45:03.

We have seen the ludicrous situation, if somebody said we are

:45:04.:45:07.

offering you ?50 and you see me agreed to sell it because we had to

:45:08.:45:10.

sell, that is the position we are in. If we like the deal we meet, if

:45:11.:45:14.

we do not like the deal we still leave. We have to establish that we

:45:15.:45:19.

have the right to remain and if we do that then we can have a

:45:20.:45:22.

meaningful referendum on the deal. But Northern Ireland for the two

:45:23.:45:27.

main as a member of a European wide party, I have spoken with our MVPs,

:45:28.:45:32.

they knew about issues related to Scotland because their First

:45:33.:45:36.

Minister had raised them publicly, they did not know about the specific

:45:37.:45:39.

issues of Northern Ireland, because our First Minister and Deputy First

:45:40.:45:43.

Minister did not quickly and did not fight our corner, which is why I

:45:44.:45:47.

have taken the Dublin case. You have taken the Dublin case because you

:45:48.:45:51.

like other remainders do not accept the verdict of the people. This is

:45:52.:45:55.

typical of the usual fanatics. Every time they get an answer in any

:45:56.:46:00.

referendum across Europe they want to rerun the referendum until they

:46:01.:46:04.

get the answer they want. The United Kingdom has spoken and emphatically

:46:05.:46:08.

decided, quite wisely, they are leaving the EU, and you would be

:46:09.:46:12.

better serving the interests of your constituents if you joined anything

:46:13.:46:17.

that a success, instead of trying to undermine it. We have agreed in

:46:18.:46:20.

principle to me. We have not agreed the deal. When we see the deal, to

:46:21.:46:26.

give people the choice again. What have you got to fear from that

:46:27.:46:39.

decision. People Before Profit act Brexit. We take our cue from James

:46:40.:46:48.

Connolly. You both at the same position on Brexit, has People

:46:49.:46:53.

Before Profit no being exposed on this issue in the wake of the votes

:46:54.:46:56.

to leave last June, because there are difficulties that people are

:46:57.:47:00.

talking about, there is a discomfort in large part of the community that

:47:01.:47:04.

you would want to be getting votes from on March the 2nd? I do not

:47:05.:47:08.

think there has been an exposure of People Before Profit. People were

:47:09.:47:13.

surprised by the position we took, if so, that is because they had not

:47:14.:47:17.

looked at what we were saying about Europe for years, but fundamentally

:47:18.:47:21.

what needs to happen now, whether people voted remain orderly they

:47:22.:47:24.

need to have a sheep -- didn't have a say in how we shape this Brexit

:47:25.:47:31.

deal. We need to have what Jeremy Corbyn is calling for no in the wake

:47:32.:47:35.

of the result, a people's Brexit. We need to have our demands firmly

:47:36.:47:43.

held. Do you agree with Jim Allister and Steven Agnew, it is being

:47:44.:47:47.

undemocratic and tried to be late history, do you share Jim Allister's

:47:48.:47:51.

confidence that Brexit does not give huge challenges to people in

:47:52.:47:56.

Northern Ireland. This good shape the future of the north and that is

:47:57.:47:59.

why we need to have their views taken. Whether we stay in or out,

:48:00.:48:05.

and we are all quite clear on what is good to happen in the future,

:48:06.:48:08.

there are lies that are still being adults, just like the scaremongering

:48:09.:48:13.

in the run-up to the fort, such as this myth that he could have any

:48:14.:48:18.

sort of hard order, when the EU last Friday said they did not want a hard

:48:19.:48:23.

border. The UK Government does not want a hard border. The Irish

:48:24.:48:27.

Government does not want a hard order. Nor do the bigger parties

:48:28.:48:30.

want to see a hard border. People that keep peddling this mess, who is

:48:31.:48:39.

going to build the hard border? How a soft border could work in the

:48:40.:48:46.

context of the UK. We need to listen to people but what we saw a couple

:48:47.:48:51.

of days ago... We need a solution. Scaremongering. One of the biggest

:48:52.:48:58.

parties, Sinn Fein, hosting a dresser exercise in West Belfast

:48:59.:49:02.

where they have police officers of old with British accents cajoling

:49:03.:49:08.

people across a fake border. Just to be clear you continue to believe

:49:09.:49:13.

that Brexit is good, yes or no? We think the European Union is the

:49:14.:49:17.

right thing to do. You still believe that. Clear sudden, do you see merit

:49:18.:49:22.

in what is happening as regards leaving the EU. No, I was a remain

:49:23.:49:27.

voter, that said, it was a UK referendum and the UK voted to come

:49:28.:49:31.

out of the EU. I except that is going to happen. No really to put

:49:32.:49:35.

out best foot forward. I have been disappointed with the BV have

:49:36.:49:40.

conducted Brexit around the big issues that we will base and the

:49:41.:49:43.

challenges in the border and to do with immigration. We need to ensure

:49:44.:49:48.

that we get this in place because it is coming down the line. It is going

:49:49.:49:52.

to cause significant problems for a whole host of people. Jim Allister,

:49:53.:49:56.

I want to ask you about what you think happens after March the 2nd.

:49:57.:50:04.

If we find ourselves back under direct rule the Assembly should come

:50:05.:50:08.

back and should be used as some sort of consultative checks and balances

:50:09.:50:14.

chamber, how would that work? How credible an idea is that? I'd then

:50:15.:50:19.

what other politicians to tell me if there is minute in your idea.

:50:20.:50:23.

Starbucks does not work, if we cannot fix it we need something

:50:24.:50:31.

else. -- Stormont does not work. My suggestion is that since it is the

:50:32.:50:35.

executive that has failed we will replace the executive with British

:50:36.:50:40.

ministers but we will keep the Assembly to cause them to put their

:50:41.:50:43.

laws through the Assembly so that local politicians have influence and

:50:44.:50:49.

control over the laws of the land. A bit like the Assembly in 1982? That

:50:50.:50:54.

was only consultative, there was no putting of the laws in 1982. British

:50:55.:51:00.

minister in charge of the executive but any laws he wants to make for

:51:01.:51:04.

Northern Ireland needs to go through the Assembly, and the scrutiny

:51:05.:51:09.

applies. In that way we get Government. We have to have

:51:10.:51:13.

Government. We cannot go on as we are with this constant failure. That

:51:14.:51:16.

is your idea. Claire Sugden, you are shaking your head. It is a nonsense.

:51:17.:51:21.

As Jim Allister advocating ministers that know nothing about the people

:51:22.:51:26.

of Northern Ireland, what is right for us? We know what people need and

:51:27.:51:29.

want the Northern Ireland. To advocate for ministers... The

:51:30.:51:36.

executive has collapsed. It feels because of the inability of the two

:51:37.:51:40.

main parties to work together. It may be exactly like that on March

:51:41.:51:44.

the 3rd, after a process of weeks or months, we cannot get an Assembly

:51:45.:51:47.

and an executive backed up and running here under the system that

:51:48.:51:50.

we sought before the selection, so Jim Allister's is positing another

:51:51.:51:56.

idea. It is not an idea that will work. What would you do? The

:51:57.:52:00.

problems is because we have had direct rule for so long and

:52:01.:52:03.

decisions were made on behalf of people who did not know. We have to

:52:04.:52:10.

remember, the United Kingdom is a devolved nation. Scotland and Wales

:52:11.:52:14.

is devolved. The UK Government does not want Northern Ireland to go back

:52:15.:52:17.

under direct rule, it is probably the last thing on their agenda. I do

:52:18.:52:22.

not think they want it, but it may be nothing to do with them. It is

:52:23.:52:25.

either Stormont rule through the field executive auditors direct

:52:26.:52:30.

rule. I am suggesting a modified form of direct rule to give control

:52:31.:52:33.

and scrutiny, to keep it in check, until that is enough agility to form

:52:34.:52:39.

a voluntary Coalition. Could you give that qualified support in the

:52:40.:52:42.

short term? I would never give more power to a Tory Government in any

:52:43.:52:46.

circumstances. We need more power for the people of Northern Ireland,

:52:47.:52:51.

not less. We do not seem to be able to exercise that power, that is the

:52:52.:52:55.

point, we have run into the sand. I agree with the principles of the

:52:56.:52:57.

Good Friday Agreement but 20 years on we need to review it and reform

:52:58.:53:03.

and revitalised. We now need to give power back to the people. Since the

:53:04.:53:07.

Good Friday Agreement politicians have taken power and guarded

:53:08.:53:11.

jealously. We have had Stormont House, St Andrews, Hillsborough,

:53:12.:53:17.

fresh start, all dodgy deals behind closed doors, we now need a

:53:18.:53:20.

constitutional convention where we all review, and get behind what is

:53:21.:53:30.

sustainable. Give me a timescale. If we look at the Republic of Ireland,

:53:31.:53:35.

they had over the course of one year constitutional convention. What do

:53:36.:53:38.

they have in the meantime - direct rule. The party elected as the

:53:39.:53:42.

largest party should get Stormont back up and running in the meantime.

:53:43.:53:47.

But if they do not? They have a responsibility to do so. We need to

:53:48.:53:51.

produce a budget otherwise people will be out of jobs. The onus will

:53:52.:53:55.

be on those parties. People collect the Green Party the first thing

:53:56.:54:00.

we'll be getting a budget. Fiona Ferguson, could you live with the

:54:01.:54:03.

suggestion that Jim Allister is making that we come up some kind of

:54:04.:54:07.

bespoke way to get through in the short term? The majority of people

:54:08.:54:10.

do not want to see and we need to take cues from the majority of

:54:11.:54:14.

people going forward but after the election while I believe that the

:54:15.:54:17.

bigger parties will take a hit in the selection, even if Sinn Fein and

:54:18.:54:23.

DUP sweep through as the bigger parties, with a smaller mandate,

:54:24.:54:28.

Sinn Fein has refused to productive any red light issue and the DUP have

:54:29.:54:33.

welcomed a return to the status quo. We know what lies ahead of if they

:54:34.:54:39.

are returned as the biggest parties. What we need to see is more open

:54:40.:54:43.

democratic system that we have had sticking plaster after sticking

:54:44.:54:47.

plaster. The Stormont House Agreement, to Stormont House

:54:48.:54:51.

Agreement take two. We need to see wholesale change of society rather

:54:52.:54:55.

than sticking plasters over Stormont. That is why we need to

:54:56.:54:58.

bring citizens back into the decision-making that affects their

:54:59.:55:02.

lives. The very thing that has fields.

:55:03.:55:15.

Thanks to you all - and now for a look back at the week

:55:16.:55:18.

I resent the idea that one life is worth more than another. We must

:55:19.:55:51.

ensure that there is fairness and balance in all of this. The Lords

:55:52.:55:59.

discuss the Brexit Bill. If roads are closed vets will attract direct

:56:00.:56:06.

action and that will lead to violence. DUP confirmed it had

:56:07.:56:14.

received ?400,000 from a group of pro-union businesspeople led by a

:56:15.:56:17.

Conservative member. The alliance leader stood by criticism of two of

:56:18.:56:24.

the former councillors. People will be surprised that all I said was

:56:25.:56:25.

believed. Now, while the smaller parties have

:56:26.:56:30.

had their say this morning, the bigger ones had their turn

:56:31.:56:35.

on Thursday night's edition of The View from Ulster University's

:56:36.:56:37.

new Belfast campus. This election was not necessary.

:56:38.:56:50.

Sinn Fein news that they use the RHI issue as an excuse. It was not the

:56:51.:56:54.

reason because ultimately they are more interested in that narrow

:56:55.:56:58.

Republican agenda and they see that this is an opportunity to weaken and

:56:59.:57:03.

people recognise that and the verdict will be cast next week.

:57:04.:57:06.

Hopefully it will be somewhere with good governance that spends our

:57:07.:57:10.

finite resources a lot better than the two large parties have done.

:57:11.:57:15.

Somewhere where policy moves on. Everything from the economy, to

:57:16.:57:22.

legacy issues, we do not just park them in disagreement, we try to move

:57:23.:57:25.

them through and change things. A lot of people choose to go away

:57:26.:57:29.

because they have had enough of that kind of control and they want to be

:57:30.:57:34.

able to make their own decisions, to have a liberal and tolerant

:57:35.:57:38.

democracy, and other people will want to come here, and that it's so

:57:39.:57:41.

rebuild the economy and create good prospects and good of life. It is

:57:42.:57:49.

not only about the mandate, it is about those young people getting

:57:50.:57:52.

involved in the parties that are sitting around this table, and the

:57:53.:57:55.

other parties, to make sure that as a progression and policy. It is

:57:56.:58:01.

about the engagement of the young people here with political parties

:58:02.:58:04.

and the process that starts that change. The decision to take us out

:58:05.:58:09.

of the EU against the wishes of the people of the north is damaging, not

:58:10.:58:14.

just economic way, socially, and politically, it is also damaging the

:58:15.:58:18.

basis of the Good Friday Agreement, upon which our system works. It was

:58:19.:58:24.

surprising that people voted against protecting the Good Friday

:58:25.:58:26.

arrangement in any Article 50 negotiation.

:58:27.:58:27.

Just a snapshot of the debate on Thursday night -

:58:28.:58:29.

and my guests to chew over all that are Alan Meban and Allison Morris.

:58:30.:58:38.

How big an opportunity to the smaller parties have in an Assembly

:58:39.:58:47.

that is shrinking from 108 members, down to 19 members. There will be

:58:48.:58:55.

heavy reliance on transfers for the fifth seat. That will cause extreme

:58:56.:59:02.

difficulty. It is interesting that the main topic of debate, that leads

:59:03.:59:08.

to most tension, as Brexit, and not the issues that led to this election

:59:09.:59:12.

in the first place such as RHI and the sort of things. Jim Allister is

:59:13.:59:18.

probably in his element because this is a very anti-group-mac led

:59:19.:59:23.

election, it came about because of RHI, I do not see how making many

:59:24.:59:31.

games. People suffer from the anti-Brexit stance despite the fact

:59:32.:59:33.

that the candidate that it which is why it is a good idea, they will

:59:34.:59:39.

take a hit on the doors. Is the challenge to hold firm, to

:59:40.:59:43.

consolidate, not a time for growth? It is not a typo growth but there

:59:44.:59:46.

was ever a conference of circumstances that make the people

:59:47.:59:52.

likely to give more support, higher preference to smaller parties,

:59:53.:59:54.

particularly well established candidates, outgoing MLAs, I think

:59:55.:59:59.

most of them will return, even though we are going to five seats,

:00:00.:00:02.

it will be the larger parties that will suffer. You are seeing the way

:00:03.:00:08.

for people to register their dislike some of the bigger parties is to

:00:09.:00:10.

take a punt on some novels smaller parties or Independents? That is a

:00:11.:00:17.

possibility and we had a reasonably article conversation today of those

:00:18.:00:22.

representing those parties. People will take a punt on them. This is

:00:23.:00:26.

the time. Who else do they have for a protest vote? An extra 20,000

:00:27.:00:31.

people on the electoral register, those are people who have registered

:00:32.:00:35.

in the last month or so, they are likely to vote, are they going to

:00:36.:00:40.

vote for traditional parties or try to make some kind of the difference?

:00:41.:00:44.

I think that difference will be for the two main opposition parties, if

:00:45.:00:48.

there will be a bounce it will go to the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists.

:00:49.:00:53.

With all elections, the big party machine, established candidates who

:00:54.:00:57.

are already elected, some of the opposition candidates people like.

:00:58.:01:01.

Some have raised the profile in the last seven months since being in

:01:02.:01:04.

opposition. Those sort of people will benefit from the bounce, not so

:01:05.:01:09.

sure that the Green Party or people from those very small parties will

:01:10.:01:15.

benefit from the antiestablishment vote. There has been focused on

:01:16.:01:21.

three women in particular in this election. Arlene Foster, Michelle

:01:22.:01:26.

O'Neill, Naomi Long, there is a lot at stake. Arlene Foster needs a good

:01:27.:01:35.

result, not to go below that magic 30 number, otherwise the knives are

:01:36.:01:40.

out, it be a swift exit for as leader stop Michelle O'Neill does

:01:41.:01:43.

not have as much to lose. The Commission has happened. She is

:01:44.:01:50.

leader. Naomi Long and they are likely to hold their own. They could

:01:51.:02:01.

accept a small set of losses, but if anybody has not been knocking on as

:02:02.:02:05.

many doors as they should have, that would be Alliance would suffer from

:02:06.:02:10.

that stock I would like to think those female leaders would mean

:02:11.:02:13.

there is a difference in the votes and policies that would help women

:02:14.:02:16.

and reproductive rights. Unfortunately I do not think they

:02:17.:02:24.

are. Arlene Foster is in a position where it is difficult to be...

:02:25.:02:34.

Constant mentions of the IRA wing of Sinn Fein. Arlene Foster is finding

:02:35.:02:39.

it difficult to go against Michelle O'Neill. Another thing that will be

:02:40.:02:43.

fascinating to see the judgment of the electorate is Mike Nesbitt,

:02:44.:02:50.

Colum Eastwood, their respective parties, not necessarily the same

:02:51.:02:54.

thing. This is too soon for the opposition to have done anything in

:02:55.:03:03.

order to get extra votes. We will see some element of whether or not

:03:04.:03:06.

they grow a little bit or whether they grow a lot. It would take a big

:03:07.:03:12.

change in turn out to change the proportions to match. But if people

:03:13.:03:17.

on the doors. We laugh at the fact that politicians may be economic

:03:18.:03:21.

with the truth, voters on the doors are even more economical, we are not

:03:22.:03:25.

hearing from politicians what people forget. Brexit and Trump showed us

:03:26.:03:28.

that we should not listen to opinion polls ahead of any election. It'll

:03:29.:03:33.

come down to what happens on the day. Fascinating few days ahead of

:03:34.:03:38.

Andrew, back to you. us. Thank you both very much indeed.

:03:39.:03:52.

Welcome back. Article 50, which triggers the beginning of Britain

:03:53.:03:59.

leaving the European Union and start negotiations, is winding its way

:04:00.:04:03.

through the Lords in this coming week. Tarzan has made an

:04:04.:04:07.

intervention, let's just see the headline from the Mail on Sunday.

:04:08.:04:14.

Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine, my fightback starts here, he is

:04:15.:04:18.

going to defy Theresa May. I divide one Prime Minister over the poll

:04:19.:04:22.

tax, I'm ready to defy this one in the Lords over Brexit. There we go,

:04:23.:04:27.

that's going to happen this week. We will see how far he gets. I don't

:04:28.:04:32.

think he will get very far, I don't think Loyalist Tory MPs and

:04:33.:04:36.

Brexiteers are quaking in their boots at the prospect of a rebellion

:04:37.:04:41.

led by Michael Heseltine. I sense that many Tory MPs are already

:04:42.:04:46.

moving on to the next question about Brexit, and the discussion over how

:04:47.:04:50.

much it will cost us to come out. The fact they are already debating

:04:51.:04:56.

that suggests to me they feel things will go fairly smoothly in terms of

:04:57.:05:01.

the legislation. When I spoke to the Labour leader in the Lords last week

:05:02.:05:06.

on the daily politics, she said she was going to push hard for the kind

:05:07.:05:09.

of amendments Lord has all-time is talking about and they would bring

:05:10.:05:18.

that back to the Commons. But if the Commons pinged it back to the Lords

:05:19.:05:21.

with the amendments taken out, she made it clear that was the end of

:05:22.:05:28.

it. Is that right? That's about right. This is probably really a

:05:29.:05:33.

large destruction. There will be to micro issues that come up in the

:05:34.:05:38.

Lords, one is on the future of EU nationals, that could be voted on as

:05:39.:05:43.

soon as this Wednesday, and then the main vote in the Lords on a week on

:05:44.:05:47.

Tuesday, when there is this question of what sort of vote will MPs and

:05:48.:05:51.

peers get at the end of the Brexit process and that is what has

:05:52.:05:55.

all-time is talking about. He wants to make sure there are guarantees in

:05:56.:06:00.

place. The kind of things peers are looking for are pretty moderate and

:06:01.:06:04.

the Government have hinted they could deliver on both of them

:06:05.:06:10.

already. But they are still not prepared... Amber Rudd said they

:06:11.:06:14.

were not prepared... They may say yes we are going to do that but they

:06:15.:06:19.

won't allow whatever that is to be enshrined in the legislation. The

:06:20.:06:23.

question is whether we think this is dancing on the head of a pin. The

:06:24.:06:27.

Government have already promised something in the House of Commons,

:06:28.:06:30.

but will they write it down, I don't think that's the biggest problem in

:06:31.:06:35.

the world. In a sense this is a great magicians trick by Theresa May

:06:36.:06:38.

because it is not the most important thing. The most important thing in

:06:39.:06:45.

Brexit is going on in those committees behind closed doors when

:06:46.:06:48.

they are trying to work out what the next migration system is for Britain

:06:49.:06:52.

and there are some interesting, indeed toxic proposals, but at the

:06:53.:06:55.

moment Downing Street are happy to let us talk about the constitutional

:06:56.:06:59.

propriety of what MPs are doing over the next eight days. It seems to me

:07:00.:07:06.

the irony is that if we had a second chamber that can claim some kind of

:07:07.:07:10.

democratic legitimacy, which the one we have cannot, it would be able to

:07:11.:07:15.

cause the Government more trouble on this, it would be more robust.

:07:16.:07:19.

Absolutely. I saw the interview we did with the Labour Leader of the

:07:20.:07:28.

Lords, they are very conscious, of the fact they are not elected and

:07:29.:07:32.

have limited powers. She was clear to you they would not impede the

:07:33.:07:36.

timetable for triggering Article 50 so we might get a bit of theatre,

:07:37.:07:40.

Michael Heseltine might deliver a brilliant speech. It is interesting

:07:41.:07:46.

that Euroscepticism gun under Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party

:07:47.:07:51.

but two offer senior ministers Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the

:07:52.:07:55.

most prominent opponents now but they will change nothing at this

:07:56.:07:59.

point. She will have the space to trigger Article 50 within her

:08:00.:08:04.

timetable. Let's move on. Let me show you a picture tweeted by Nigel

:08:05.:08:06.

Farage. That is Nigel Farage and a small

:08:07.:08:16.

group of people having dinner, and within that small group of people is

:08:17.:08:20.

the president of the United States, and it was taken in the last couple

:08:21.:08:25.

of days. This would suggest that if he can command that amount of the

:08:26.:08:31.

President's time in a small group of people, then he's actually rather

:08:32.:08:35.

close to the president. Make no mistake about it, Nigel Farage is

:08:36.:08:40.

now to and fro Washington more regularly than perhaps he is here.

:08:41.:08:47.

Hopefully that LBC programme is recorded over in the state. He's not

:08:48.:08:53.

only close to the president but to a series of people within the

:08:54.:08:56.

administration. That relationship there is a remarkable one and one to

:08:57.:09:01.

keep an eye on. Will the main government be tempted to tap into

:09:02.:09:06.

that relationship at any time or is it just seething with anger? You can

:09:07.:09:12.

feel a ripple of discontentment over this. We are in the middle of

:09:13.:09:18.

negotiating the state visit and the sort of pomp and circumstance and

:09:19.:09:22.

what kind of greeting Britain should give Donald Trump when he comes over

:09:23.:09:26.

later in the year. There is a great deal of neurotic thought going into

:09:27.:09:30.

what that should look like, but one of the most interesting things about

:09:31.:09:33.

our relationship with Donald Trump is that there is a nervousness among

:09:34.:09:37.

some Cabinet ministers that we are being seen to go too far, too fast

:09:38.:09:41.

with the prospect of a trade deal. Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet

:09:42.:09:45.

ministers, they worry we won't get a very good trade deal with the US and

:09:46.:09:50.

we are tolerably placing a lot of stalled by it. When we see the kind

:09:51.:09:54.

of deal they want to pitch with us there might be some pulling back and

:09:55.:10:03.

that could be an awkward moment in terms of our relationship, and no

:10:04.:10:06.

doubt Nigel at that term -- at that point will accuse the UK of doing

:10:07.:10:11.

the dirty on Donald Trump. If there was a deal, would they get it

:10:12.:10:19.

through the House of Commons? Nigel Farage is having dinner with the

:10:20.:10:23.

president, not bad as a kind of lifestyle but he's politically

:10:24.:10:27.

rootless, he won't be an MEP much longer so if you look at where is

:10:28.:10:30.

his political base to build on this great time he's having, there is

:10:31.:10:35.

one. Given that there is one I think he's just having a great time and it

:10:36.:10:38.

isn't much more significant than that. No? There's a lot to be said

:10:39.:10:49.

for having a great time. You are having a great time. Let's just

:10:50.:10:58.

look, because of the dominance of the Government we kind of it nor

:10:59.:11:02.

there are problems piling up, only what, ten days with the Budget to

:11:03.:11:08.

go, piling up for Mrs May and her government. The business rates which

:11:09.:11:14.

has alarmed a lot of Tories, this disability cuts which are really a

:11:15.:11:17.

serious problem for the Government, and the desperate need for more

:11:18.:11:21.

money for social care. There are other issues, there are problems

:11:22.:11:26.

there and they involve spending money. Absolutely and some people

:11:27.:11:30.

argue Theresa May has only one Monday and that is to deliver Brexit

:11:31.:11:34.

but it is impossible as a Prime Minister to ignore everything else.

:11:35.:11:41.

And she doesn't want to either. The bubbling issue of social care and

:11:42.:11:44.

the NHS is the biggest single problem for her in the weeks and

:11:45.:11:49.

months ahead, she has got to come up with something. And Mr Hammond will

:11:50.:11:52.

have to loosen his belt a little bit. I think he will in relation to

:11:53.:11:58.

the NHS, he didn't mention it in the Autumn Statement, which was

:11:59.:12:01.

remarkable, and he cannot get away with not mentioning it this time. If

:12:02.:12:05.

he mentions it, it has to be in a positive context in some way or

:12:06.:12:09.

another and it is one example of many. She is both strong because she

:12:10.:12:13.

is so far ahead in the opinion polls, but this in tray is one of

:12:14.:12:17.

the most daunting a Prime Minister has faced in recent times I think.

:12:18.:12:23.

Here is what will happen on Budget day, money will be more money,

:12:24.:12:29.

magically found down the back of the Treasury sofa. The projections are

:12:30.:12:35.

that he has wiggle room of about 12 billion. But look at the bills,

:12:36.:12:39.

rebels involved in business rates suggest the Chancellor will have to

:12:40.:12:44.

throw up ?2 billion at that problem. 3.7 billion is the potential cost of

:12:45.:12:48.

this judgment about disability benefits. The Government will try to

:12:49.:12:52.

find different ways of satisfying it but who knows. It will not popular.

:12:53.:12:58.

I'm not sure they will throw money at the NHS, they want an interim

:12:59.:13:01.

settlement on social care which will alleviate pressure on the NHS but

:13:02.:13:05.

they feel... That's another couple of billion by the way. They feel in

:13:06.:13:12.

the Treasury that the NHS has not delivered on what Simon Stevens

:13:13.:13:17.

promised them. But here is the bigger problem for Philip Hammond,

:13:18.:13:22.

he has two This year and he thinks the second one in the autumn is more

:13:23.:13:25.

important because that is when people will feel the cost living

:13:26.:13:27.

squeeze. The Daily Politics is back at noon

:13:28.:13:29.

on BBC Two tomorrow. We'll be back here at

:13:30.:13:33.

the same time next week. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:34.:13:35.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:36.:13:42.

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