12/05/2013 Sunday Politics Scotland


Andrew Neil and Andrew Kerr with the latest political news, interviews and debate, guests include defence secretary Philip Hammond.

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Politics. It's the big Euro referendum vote


next week. No, not for us. For MPs. So how will Euro-sceptics in the


Cabinet vote? We'll ask Defence Secretary Philip Hammond. Will Mr


Hammond's plan to make up for cuts in regular troop numbers by doubling


the number of reserves work? And if it doesn't, what then? The Defence


Secretary is our Sunday Interview. It's the big idea the government


thinks will be a game changer for the economy: so is help to buy a


Thatcherite master stroke or a recipe for sky high house prices?


Labour and the Tories go head to head. And on Sunday Politics


Scotland: Will the lights go out? The outgoing chairman of leading


power company SSE tells us about the uncertain future in the world of


Apology for the loss of subtitles for 1804 seconds


built. You didn't build enough houses when you were in power.


What's the Tories have managed to achieve is the lowest record in


peacetime years since the 1920s so they really have nothing to boast


about. People who are out there and went on to the housing ladder are


desperately looking to get into a housing association. They want to


see housing Bill and it is interesting that the Treasury Select


Committee report very clearly states that that should be the focus of


looking at the supply as well as the demand. There are real concerns that


have to be addressed. Are you going to vote for this EU referendum and


maintenance to the Queens speech? Yes I am. Thank you very much.


Welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme: Sparks


fly in the energy debate - as Ian Marchant's leadership of SSE draws


to a close - he says policy-makers have created an uncertain future.


Who would start building a gas pump today on the basis of the market


recovering and the government to get its policy right. They are going to


see, let's wait until one of those has happened. And I'll be looking


ahead to the by-election. You use it, we use it - governments


stand or fall depending on the supply of it. The cost - and use of


- energy is always at the centre of political debate. In a


straight-talking interview, the outgoing chairman of SSE has been


speaking to us about his predictions for rising costs, increasing


conflict with policy makers about investment and the eventual need for


new nuclear power stations. Edinburgh by night. Beautifully


illuminated, unlike large parts of the industry which power that. And


all these lights cost. The average household Bill has gone up 47% since


2008. According to the outgoing chairman of SSE, that is not going


to change any time soon. The most likely scenario is the unit price of


energy will continue to go up. But it is the unit price. You control


the other bit of the equation, the unit you use. I think the real price


of smart metering is that it will tell you what you are using and you


can then take control and make reasonable decisions about how much


energy you are using. I think that will actually restore some trust in


the industry. Smart metering may create some transparency but its


introduction has just been postponed for one year. In he believes that


politicians need to be more honest. He says the cost of successive


governments policies to make the UK greener and more energy-efficient


have been passed straight to the industry. And therefore on to us,


the consumers. The Generation Game as lucrative. SSE returned 1.3


billion and profits last year. But most of the country 's power


stations are nearing the end of their working life. Replacing them


is going to prove costly. government has said that they will


introduce new policy. But they haven't actually introduced new


policy and to quote Donald Rumsfeld, they have created a known


unknown. They have said that they will intervene but you have to


wait. So what do you do? You wait. Who would build a gas plant and


start building a gas plant today on the basis of the market will recover


and the government will get its policy right? They are going to


say, let's wait until at least one of those has happened. In the


meantime, he says that other solutions are needed. More


investment in demand management technology and greater use of


renewables like hydropower. already generates 10% of Scotland's


energy needs and this month marks its 70th anniversary. Just this


week, SSE unveiled plans for a �30 million scheme in Ross shire. But


that doesn't mean there is no place for nuclear and the long-term. My


objections to nuclear at the moment are that it is the wrong technology


at the wrong place for the wrong company but we should wait. We can


afford as a country to wait. There is a lot of interesting technology


in nuclear going on. And in the US where they are looking at generation


for technology and smaller reactors. They are easier and quicker to


build. The UK should wait. He admits that SSE let its customers down. He


has apologised and is adamant that the company has made changes and is


now in much better shape. But can the same be said for the rest of the


industry? Energy's global, policy's reserved


to Westminster and planning is an issue for Holyrood. So how does the


industry and politicians address the various issues? I'm joined here in


the studio by the Scottish Government's Energy Minister Fergus


Ewing and by Labour's Shadow Energy Minister, Tom Greatrex. The cost of


bills, that is the most important thing for people. How much power do


you have in the most important thing for people. How much power do you


have any Scottish Government to get them down? We don't have the


influence we would like to have but industry


industry and with the UK government to bring forward the system of rules


that is going to be necessary to meet the electricity needs for the


future. Ian Marchant is quite right to say that at the moment, there are


no rules to stop therefore, there is an investment hiatus. But we want to


move swiftly on to concluding a camcorder with the UK government


about Scotland's role and we do have power to set rocks at the moment.


Your clips showed a new hydro scheme in Ross shire worth 30 million. SSE


said that one of the reasons for that is obligation certificates. In


England, they have just the incentive for hydro. We want to see


more idle but we want to see a variety of electricity is. When it


comes to generation, what is required as variety and variety


alone. Therefore, we will require a continuation of nuclear for some


time. We are expanding our renewables and that includes onshore


wind, hydro and pump storage as well. I have been very pleased that


in the Scottish Parliament, we can debate these matters on the basis of


rationality and with a fair degree of consensus across the parties.


Sadly, the process is taking far too long to sort out the MR and get the


straight prices. The risk is that of Jim has identified that the lights


will go out and England because the spare capacity as 4% or less and


that could happen by 2015. We do really require to make progress as


quickly as possible. We are talking about the lights going out and


rising energy bills. How much labour to blame after 13 years in power?


Alistair Buchanan has been very critical of Labour's policy and


power calling it a car crash. we have is a situation where we have


a number of power stations that are due to go off-line in the near


future and we have a need to replace that generation capacity. The thing


that's happened in the retail market is that over a period of time, we


have had consolidation of companies. The problem has been that what has


happened as the generates the power and then sell it on to the consumers


and businesses across Britain and in Scotland. It is very hard to see


exactly where the profit is being made. There is a lack of trust


because people see the high profit figures and we also see their bills


going up to stop we need to have a reform of the regional part of it


which isn't covered in the electricity legislation. We need to


have transparency because you won't have the trust that Ian Marchant was


talking about until there is real transparency in that market.


current government have only been in for three years. We should almost be


reaping the fruits of a coherent energy policy just note that we are


not. Energy is any real mess at the moment isn't it? In that three


years, the average dual fuel Bill has gone up by more than �300. We


have seen a reduction in confidence and investment and renewable


technology and another technologies over that period of time. We have


seen a situation where the government is making an off-the-cuff


remark and have got themselves into even more of a mess. That is


contributing to the delay. Ian Marchant was absolutely right when


he was talking about gas power stations and that people are not


investing because they are waiting to see the way the capacity market


will work. That is not in any be equal he did energy policy. Looking


at the burden of social tariffs on top of the actual costs of energy,


perhaps you as a government are to blame as well because people have to


pay for the renewable energy sector. People are really feeling


that pressure at the moment and having to pay for a lot of


controversial renewables projects? The UK government's figures show


that if there were not the deployment of renewables, those


would be much higher. They say that by 2020, if they were not pushed


renewables, the average Bill would be �166 higher. Bills have been high


but an analysis of this shows that the reason for that is an increase


in gas prices vary substantially. There has been a lack of


consideration to energy policy over decades. The great hasn't had major


investment since the 60s. Many of the problems about constraint


payment arrives because of that lack of investment. The good news is that


because of our success in Scotland, success which independent people


such as the CEO of the National Grid have said and the clarity of our


purpose and incentivising union durables -- incentivising renewables


not we have confidence more amongst investors in Scotland. When you look


get too closely drawn into that because of legal reasons. I am the


Minister that took the planning decision there but in general, the


investment in renewables is strong in Scotland. As has been said by Ian


Marchant and also by ScottishPower, there is an investment hiatus at the


moment and therefore, we are very keen that that hiatus should come to


an end by an agreement and publication of the draft straight


prices in the next month or so. Scotland has these worlds leading


climate change targets. You must find that a very laudable thing? The


best we're trying to achieve those targets is by improving and


increasing the image of renewable generation. The best and most


efficient cost-effective and most sensible way of doing it is what


happens now in that it is paid by consumers across the whole of


Britain. The magnitude would be completely different. I think the


system as it is at the moment encourages that and should be


encouraging at father. The decisions and some of the hiatus in decisions


as that there are whole of injuries -- incidents. That is another factor


alongside the weight we still have from some of the detail of the


marked presence. They are all causing a situation where people are


stopping and pausing. The cost will increase if we end up in a situation


where we are even more in hock to the volatile nature of gas prices.


The best way of getting security of supply into the renewables part of


that is by getting on with that development. Tom has also pointed


out the development of wind power, we're not seeing enough generation


of this? We believe there is massive potential for offshore wind. That


could create over 20,000 jobs. As it is at the moment, renewable energy


in Scotland sustains 11,000 jobs and onshore wind has been a stepping


stone. Without it, they would be no rationale for a 7000 billion pound


investment. Without that, there cannot be offshore wind. It is all


part of the jigsaw and our clear support and the Scottish Government


for renewables along with conventional back-up, has been well


received by investors. England does need Scotland's energy and


therefore, following independence, we believe the should continue to be


a integrated energy market and Scotland will require demand from


the consumers south of the border. England needs Scotland's energy


otherwise the lights go out. In a separate Scotland, it is an


assertion based on an assumption based on a hope that that is what


would happen. In reality, if England and the rest of the UK required


energy, they would then make a commercial decision and it is what


about what is available. That isn't necessary Sara Lee going to be from


Scotland. There wouldn't be a residual obligation from the rest of


the UK to Scotland. Very interesting debate. Thank you.


It's being described as a key litmus test in the independence debate.


Voters in Aberdeen Donside will vote on the 20th of June to elect a


successor to the late Brian Adam - the SNP MSP who died last month. Mr


Adam managed a majority of seven thousand at the last election. If


Labour did claim the seat - it would deprive the SNP of their majority at


Holyrood. Niall O'Gallacher has been looking at the numbers.


I am very sad to have to inform the chamber of the passing of dear


friend Brian Adam this morning. Parliament paid its respects after


the death of the SNP member for Aberdeen Donside. A popular figure


at Holyrood, Brian Adam's passing drew tributes from across the


chamber. But as he would have understood, politics must go on.


This week the 20th of June was meant as the day Mr Adam successor would


be chosen. At the last election SNP won 69 of their 129 seats in the


chamber behind me. They lost one to the cheer and after suspensions and


affections, they are now at 65. That is a majority of just one. They


would have 65 seats in the, that is a minority of MSP's.


Nationalists are calling the tune and Aberdeen these days. Brian Adam


that more than half the day -- half the votes leading his party majority


of over 7000. Councillor Willie Young has been tasked with


persuading voters to back Labour. Oh well Labour do will be seen as the


first barometer of how well Johann Lamont is performing and there are


signs that she is chipping away at the first Minister. She is doing


really rather well. Her popularity as increasing will stop all these


polls narrow win? This is a chance to find out. The prospective SNP


candidate didn't expect to win in 2011 and so came... Roads and


infrastructure spending looks like being the big issues locally so it


could come down to this. Who do voters blame or four projects


professor of politics at Strathclyde University John Curtice. Brian had


cemented himself in that seat in Aberdeen North in 2003. I


interviewed him when he won that seat and he got double what Labour


got in the last Holyrood election. It will be an interesting fight, but


probably a very strong showing for the SNP. This is one of the SNP 's


safest seats in Holyrood. This is not a constituency they won against


everybody's expectations, they first won it in 2003 when they want doing


very well. It will be a 13.5% swing to Labour if they are to pick it up.


That said, there are a few notes of caution for the SNP. The first is


their position in the opinion polls for the party. According to the most


recent of those, it has been something like a 5% swing since


2011. Secondly, the general rule of by-elections is they tend to be not


that good for governments and they are used for protests. We have not


had a by-election since the SNP gained power in 2007. The Labour


Party, the senior partners in the coalition with the Lib Dems, lost


ground, so we shouldn't be surprised if we end up with a bigger swing


against the SNP than the 5% of the most recent opinion poll. That would


suggest it won't be a stupendous win for the SNP, even getting the 13.5%


swing that would be a considerable feather in Labour's cap. Looking at


the numbers, hypothetically, if Labour did when what would happen in


Parliament? In practice, it won't make a great deal of difference. Two


of the defectors from the SNP are still supporting the party. It might


have some implications for the composition of committees, but the


truth is the SNP have a dominant position in Holyrood. It would be a


symbolic loss of the majority rather than anything more substantial.


looks like Mark McDonald will be the candidate for the SNP, going up


against Willie Young from Labour. Both are well known local figures.


They are, which means it will show that the SNP are getting voters to


think about the performance of the Labour Party in Aberdeen City


Council and not necessarily what is going on in Holyrood. In


by-elections in Fife the Labour Party successfully persuaded people


to focus on the record of the SNP on the Fife Council at that time rather


than the record of the Labour Government in Westminster. There are


chinks in Labour's armour on Aberdeen Council. In truth, for the


most part people are going to be saying to themselves, have happy I


would Alec Salmond and the SNP? Do I want him representing me? It is very


much a two horse race. How might the UK coalition partners there in this


election? They can't look forward to it with a great deal of confidence.


The Liberal Democrats' position in the polls is still dire. The


Conservatives aren't doing anything very much in Scotland. UKIP are


going to fight this by-election as well. They have done tremendously


well in by-elections in provincial England. Scotland is clearly a


tougher nut for UKIP. The only got 5% of the vote in 2009. If you look


at recent opinion polls, that currently looks to be the position


we are at at the moment. It will be interesting to see how well you


could manage to do, that I suspect they will be a pale shadow of their


performance south of the border. Transport and infrastructure will be


the main things. Bridge crossings will be a local issue and, of


course, meanwhile some people are anticipating that this will be a


by-election about independence. I would caution against that. Only 61%


of the people who said they voted for the SNP say they would


necessarily vote yes, I think in truce we may well find that the


SNP's performance in this by-election will probably outperform


whatever is the current support for independence in the constituency. To


that extent, we shouldn't read too much into this by-election.


Thank you very much for coming in. That by-election will be on the 20th


of June. You are watching Sunday Politics. We are heading to the news


shortly. After that we will look at the week ahead. The deputy leader of


the SNP will set out her policies. Good afternoon. The Education


Secretary Michael Gove has told the BBC he would vote for Britain to


leave the EU if there was a referendum today. He is the most


senior Conservative to contemplate backing England's exit from the EU.


He told the Andrew Marr show that life outside would be perfectly poor


ball -- tolerable but the best approach would be to let David


Cameron leader. The most important thing to do is support the Prime


Minister and then put it to a referendum. Some of my colleagues


are very exuberant and want to let off steam. My position is to let


David Cameron set out a platform and have the referendum.


The former prime ministers of Pakistan says he is confident he


will be returned to power more than 13 years after he was ousted in a


military coup. Results from yesterday's election put his


Pakistan Muslim League well in the lead but the party is expected to


fall short of a majority, forcing it to go into coalition.


He had been widely tipped to return to power, but it is still a


remarkable personal comeback after being ousted as Prime Minister by


the Army in 2009. -- 1999. It was cricketing legend Imran Khan


who most threatened his ambitions, galvanising young voters with his


call for a new Pakistan. With victory apparently insight, the


leading candidate recognise that a compost and. He said that he will


fulfil every promise he had made to the youth. Voters yesterday defied


the violence that had played the campaign. The turnout was 60%, the


highest in years. If the party fall short of the


majority they need to govern on their own they will need to deal


with other parties. He promises stable government, arguing that in


an effective coalition would be bad news for Pakistan.


He will have a honeymoon period of sorts, but from the economy to


tackling extremism time will not be on his side.


The Syrian government has rejected accusations that it was behind two


car bombs that killed at least 49 people in Turkey yesterday and


wounded dozens more. Hundreds of mourners have attended the


funerals. Nine people, all Turkish, have been arrested in connection


with the awnings. A group of senior nurses are warning


of inadequate staffing levels on many hospital boards in England.


They say healthcare is being put at risk. The government says hospitals


are best placed to decide on the number of staff places.


There will be more news on BBC One at six o'clock this evening.


Good morning, police are still waiting to speak to the critically


injured daughter of a woman who was found dead in a Greenock hotel.


Margaret McDonagh was found severely injured in a room in the Premiere In


on Friday. Her 23-year-old daughter is in a critical condition in


hospital. The women were not stabbed. Police cannot yet establish


whether there were suspicious circumstances.


Firefighters have brought under control a blaze in Cumbernauld. The


fire broke out in the kitchen of the hotel this morning. A number of


rooms had to be evacuated, but there are no reports of injuries.


David Livingstone 's great-grandchildren are to mark the


anniversary of his birth. They will be special guests at the Church of


Scotland's General Assembly. They will be remembering his missionary


work in Malawi and Zambia where he is still regarded as a national


hero. My father kept it a dark secret, but as he says it's just


your luck or whatnot. We take it quite, you know, modestly, shall we


say. There are two matches being played


in the SPL today. Hearts are taking on Hibs while Motherwell face Ross


It is an unsettled picture with outbreaks of rain affecting parts of


Scotland, but as the rain moves eastwards it will break up. The rain


will extend into Shetland later in the day. As far as temperatures go


the winds will be increasing all the time from the West. Blustery showers


will follow in its wake, but staying is making news in Holyrood, let's


look back at the week in 60 seconds. The Queen set out the UK Government


's programme at the State opening of Parliament. It includes measures to


curb immigration and preparation for the independence referendum.


government will continue to make the case for Scotland remaining part of


the United Kingdom. Alex Ferguson said he is stepping


down as manager of Manchester united. David Moyes will take over.


Edinburgh will be revitalised by adding cafes with outside seating on


Princes Street. Joanne Lyman said Alex Salmond


didn't care about healthcare. At Westminster, Nick Clegg said he


blocked Tory proposals to increase the number of children staff should


This week we have the recently retired political editor of the


Sunday Post and the Sunday Times journalist. I think we know who will


be making the news this week in politics in Scotland. Gordon Brown


urges Scots not to give up on the UK. Gordon Brown returning to the


front line as they launch Labour's Row union campaign. Gordon Brown is


always a very interesting person to watch. We haven't seen much of him


over the last few years. He is still the MP for Kirkcaldy but he has been


off doing other things. Friends say that he was despondent after he


stopped being Prime Minister and it has taken him sometime to get back


into it and his wife has been instrumental in helping him to get


over that period. I think he will come back fighting. The union


campaign need someone to make a positive case. Whether Gordon will


do it, I don't know. The headline suggests he will be quite divisive.


Do you think he is an attractive figure two voters? -- to voters?


think in England he is treated as a figure of fun almost, certainly in


political circles, but in Scotland we still think he is one of our


lads. By his own efforts he became a major figure and became Prime


Minister. Whether he will be a major figure in the no campaign I don't


know. He is making a speech tomorrow, whether he will be a


continuing figure I doubt very much. This is not moving away from Better


Together it is just a Labour campaign and they need those


footsoldiers if they want to do well. The problem for Labour and


Netted Together is they have different agendas. They want to see


the union retained but Labour has very much an anti-Tory agenda at


Westminster. When you have a big beast like Gordon Brown wading in,


he will have his own thoughts. There is potential for ructions. Nicola


Sturgeon more argue that there is a national majority in Scotland. It is


interesting that the Gordon Brown speech tomorrow has really


overshadowed the Nicola Sturgeon speech. Most of the papers have gone


with the Browns speech. Nicola is saying that if Scots believed


Scotland would be a fairer and better of country and independence,


they would vote for independence. I think she has a big task on our


hands to do that. To go back to Labour, I think they have been


needled slightly. We see the SNP saying Labour in Coalition with the


Tories. I think this is worrying them a little bit. The fact that


they are being linked with the Conservatives, they are trying to


say, this is labour for the union rather than just better together.


What you think of the phrase a natural majority? There are still


quite a lot of questions that haven't been answered that are


piling up. The yes campaign has had a torrid couple of weeks. Nicola is


very good. She will be trying to put a marker in the sand to try try to


re-establish that campaign. When it comes to majority, it is the polls


that kind. Let's look at another issue in the Sunday mail. Nigel


Farage is downing a paint. He is coming to Scotland on Thursday. It


will be a very interesting by-election won't it? I don't think


UKIP or how much impact on the outcome of the by-election. I think


it is a two horse race between the SNP and Labour. Labour have a good


candidate, a well-known local councillor. Having said that, that


may be one of Labour's weaknesses because the SNP can attack Labour on


their council record. There is a lot of disquiet over the third Don


Crossing. The Liberal Democrats have already made a lot of this. If the


SNP were to lose this it would be a major blow. I think the majority


will be decreased but I don't see them losing. Do you think Brian Adam


built up a strong will support there? He had a majority 7000.


was well liked. He has gone on very sad circumstances. There will be a


lot of sympathy around that. He seemed to do a good job. For Labour


to win, it is going to be a huge achievement. That is where the


Andrew Neil and Andrew Kerr with the latest political news, interviews and debate, guests include defence secretary Philip Hammond.

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