07/02/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


07/02/2016

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew's guests include MPs Eric Pickles and Stephen Kinnock, plus George Galloway.


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Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland:

:01:27.:01:29.

on the fiscal framework is "within reach".

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So, with goodwill flowing, will this week bring agreement?

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And joining me as always, three journalists who've got more

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opinions than the campaign to leave the EU has splinter groups.

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Yes, it's Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.

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We'll see if they're still on speaking terms by the end

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Let's start today by talking about what the Government in England

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is or isn't going to do about a sugar tax.

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Health experts have been calling for one, to tackle

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is a crisis in child obesity - but so far ministers

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Well, this morning the celebrity chef Jamie Oliver said

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to "get ninja" to force the Government to act.

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Here's the Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, responding

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on The Andrew Marr Show this morning.

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It has to be a game changing moment, a robust strategy.

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The issue here is, do what it takes to make sure

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that children consume less sugar, because we have got

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We are the most obese nation in the EU

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Well, we are going to be announcing in due course -

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David Cameron has said, if it isn't a sugar tax,

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it needs to be something that is equally robust.

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But he hasn't taken a sugar tax off the table.

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Will there be a sugar tax? His instinct is to say no, I do not want

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to run the nanny state that Jeremy Hunt says his one-year-old daughter,

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by the time she is an adult, one third of the population will be

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clinically obese and Public Health England shows if you introduce a

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sugar tax, you will reduce that some Jeremy Hunt is in favour but the

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Prime Minister is inching towards some decision, whether that is a

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sugar tax or not... Regional and devolved governments, Wales has been

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very keen on that. I feel I am at liberty to say this but Scotland

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also has greater tax-raising powers so he could get outflanked. Or wait

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and see how it does in Scotland and Wales and then decide to follow?

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Yes. I want to make the liberal case against this but that ship has

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sailed decades ago, we tax alcohol and tobacco and this is more like a

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revenue raiser because that isn't -- a justifiable cause, we have a

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population with a sweet tooth that you can hit the revenue. That is the

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reasoning to deal with rather than the more censorious reason of

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monitoring behaviour. And junior doctors, scheduled to be back on

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strike on Wednesday in England, which means that some of the talks

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so far have failed? There is bad feeling but as Andrew Marr was

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saying, the turnout on the vote was very high, and the 8%. The

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government is really struggling to shake this debate and it is

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interesting with that interview, Jeremy Hunt has said until now that

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the cost of the new contract would be revenue neutral, he now admits

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there would not only be a transitional cost but longer term

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and the government is really struggling on this. It is not affect

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emergency services this time. It was a big week for

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David Cameron's renegotiation He once promised a fundamental

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change in that relationship as a condition for backing

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the campaign to stay in. Well, there are changes -

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but perhaps not quite as fundamental And what he has achieved still needs

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to be agreed by EU leaders at a summit in a fortnight's

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time, where it could be But Mr Cameron says what he's

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achieved is so significant that if Britain was not an EU member,

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this would make him want to join. Here he is speaking

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earlier in the week. I can say, hand on heart,

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I've delivered the commitments that I made in my manifesto,

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and I think the whole country knows that if you, for instance,

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pay people ?5,000, ?10,000 additional to their wages,

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then that is a draw to Britain, and that's one of

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the reasons why we've seen such high levels

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of migration and movement. So David Cameron says it lives up

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to everything that was promised in the Conservative

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election manifesto. I'm joined by former Cabinet

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minister Eric Pickles. Welcome back. You said this week the

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Prime Minister has kept to the letter and spirit of his manifesto

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promise. Let us look letter and spirit of his manifesto

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promise. The manifesto said we will insist that EU migrants who want to

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claim tax credits and child benefit must live here and contribute to the

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economy for a minimum of four years. The emergency rig on tax credits

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does not achieve The emergency rig on tax credits

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must bear in mind the things we can The emergency rig on tax credits

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do through domestic law, a job-seeker from Europe

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do through domestic law, a find a job within six

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do through domestic law, a are obliged to leave and that has

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been achieved through domestic law. The manifesto promised no in work

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benefits until The manifesto promised no in work

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for four years. The reality is graduated, they rise, and after four

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years you get the full benefit? That is not unreasonable. After four

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years to get full benefit but we know that the criteria for putting

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on the brake for four years has already been passed and the largest

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political party in the EU agrees that has happened and we should have

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this in place after the next referendum. It will have to be

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approved by the European Parliament and the other 27 members and what

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constitution, emergency, the cost to migrants is five billion pounds

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every year, we are 1.6 5 trillion economy, public spending is 750

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billion pounds. Why is ?500 million and emergency, only 1.6% of the

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bill? My earlier answer was, we already know the political leader of

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the largest political party in the Parliament of Europe has said it is

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the fact that we have arrived at those conditions and an emergency

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brake will be placed. What emergency? It is an emergency in the

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views of the European partners, they have accrued -- agreed to this

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emergency brake but in terms have the mechanism of Britain future for

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other countries, that will be decided over the next two weeks but

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what we do know as far as the UK is concerned, we will get that

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emergency brake. If a migrant Eilidh Child lives abroad, they should

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receive no child tax credit or benefit, no matter how long they

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have worked in the UK or how much tax they have paid. There it is. The

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sentiment does not deliver on that either? What it does deliver is

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harmonisation of benefits so the level of benefits will be exactly

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the same as it would be in their own country. You are going to have 28

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different levels of child benefit! In many cases it can be as much as

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the quarter. And in some cases, more? Not many people to pay the

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same level that we don't but the point I was making is that in Poland

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it is a quarter of the level as it is here. You promised no child

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benefit for migrants and you're delivering index linked child

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benefit for migrants? It is a big improvement on the current

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situation. When you go into negotiation, but do precisely that

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and I think it is within the spirit of what we said. The manifesto said

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that you will control migration from the European Union by reforming

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welfare rolls and Mr Cameron at one stage said that reducing immigration

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from the European Union would be at the heart of this. Can you give us

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an idea of how much these changes will reduce European Union

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migration? I am not part of the negotiating team so all I can go

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wrong is what I have seen in newspapers and given that we know

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that in work benefits, 40% of new arrivals are supported by that and

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given that the average is ?6,000 in addition and can be as much as

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?10,000, it will have an effect. You said 40% but that is not the figure,

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we know from the Freedom of Information release that if there

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had been any emergency brake in the last four years it would have

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affected 84,000 families. That is it, not 40%. I said that 40% of the

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new immigrants that, in, new migrants, claiming in work benefit,

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you are comparing apples and pears? I am not. 80,000 families is nowhere

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near 40%. Last year, 180,000 net migration from the EU. Do you have

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any idea by how much the figure will be reduced as a result of the

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settlement? Were not trying to prevent people living inside the

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European Union, we are trying to stop people coming for something for

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nothing, to claim from our innovative system and secondly, to

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ensure there is an equalisation inside the market of people coming

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here just because of our in work benefits. Since this will apply only

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to new migrants and not those that are already here, is unlikely to be

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a rush to come in before these restrictions in? And the figure

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could rise? As part of the negotiations we have to ensure that

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doesn't happen. We would have two ask as part of the negotiation... To

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ensure that there isn't this new influx. In the manifesto you also

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said that we want national partners to be able to work together to block

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unwanted European legislation. In the Lisbon Treaty there is an orange

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card system that does that and we have the red card with Mr Cameron,

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is this an improvement? The Orange card has been used twice. That was

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yellow, orange has never been used. I beg your pardon. It is confusing!

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How many different cards? Three, yellow and orange and this red card.

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In what way would the red card be any improvement on the existing

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Orange card, which means 51% of national parliaments can make the

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commission rethink? We can move much quicker in terms of trying to knock

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out any deal between European Parliaments and secondly, national

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parliaments are becoming much more assertive in terms of their session

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and that is a massively important step in the re-establishment in the

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importance of national parliaments. It is not just our Parliament, we

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would need to get 56% of national parliaments, at least 15 others, and

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in many cases we would only have 12 weeks to ask them to vote against

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the policy of their own national government. That is not credible? Of

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course it is. I think this is a very important step on the way of

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ensuring national parliaments are much more assertive and don't

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forget, read this in line of stopping them moving towards ever

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closer union and protecting sterling. Let us look at that. It

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was meant to be one of the big wins for the Prime Minister, Donald Tusk,

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the President of the Council, says we have always had that, it need not

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mean integration for Britain, the settlement confirms only the status

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quo. It is very interesting for him to

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say that but on every programme that I've ever been on, it has been this

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drift towards ever closer union, political union, that has been

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important. If it means we have now re-established that it is about give

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and take and cooperation, that is a great thing. Given how little the

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prime and this has achieved -- the Prime Minister has achieved, would

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his position not be undermined, or become untenable, if this draft

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settlement was further undermined before being finally agreed? I'm

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very confident, given that this Prime Minister is the only Prime

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Minister ever to take powers back from Europe, that it will be

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successful. But could you stomach of further watering down? It would

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depend what the overall position is but my position comes not from any

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enthusiasm for Europe. It's just a lack of any decent ideas that we

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would be better off outside. To come back to this business of the

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European Parliament, there are number of areas in which the

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European Parliament has to approve this settlement, including the work

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benefits, child benefit element, perhaps even the red card. What

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guarantees can you give, because the European Parliament won't to do

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this, if it does it at all, until after the referendum... So how can

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you guarantee that we will vote to stay in and the European Parliament

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will not pass the legislation? We've had indications from the European

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Parliament that they will do precisely that. What I would hope...

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Where? Just a second. The leader of the largest party has said that. I

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think what we would want to see over the next couple of weeks are more

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codification in terms of how this would come to operate, not just for

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us but for other parties. But if the European Parliament doesn't pass

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this, it is not legally binding. The Prime Minister has told us that. It

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can only be eagerly binding under the existing treaties with

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legislation through the European Parliament. You are asking the

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British people to vote blind, to vote yes, without really knowing

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what the European Parliament might do down the road in the autumn at

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the end of the year. I'm very confident that will be the case. --

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won't be the case. It will be an appalling abuse of trust and would

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undermine the European Union, were it not to do so. But sooner or

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later, we are going to have to go on to discuss, what would the

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consequences be thus leaving? Because that would not be a

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pain-free experience. I really want the guarantees for those that want

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us to leave to say that my constituents and my constituents'

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children will be materially better off by leaving. Not just the same

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but better off by leaving. Eric Pickles, thanks for being with us

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this morning. Thank you. In recent weeks we've been debating

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some of the big issues at the heart We've covered immigration

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and the economy. Today we're going to look

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at Britain's sovereignty within the European Union and ask,

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is the EU a democratic club There are about 500 million people

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across the 28 member states Voters from these countries go

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to the polls every five years to elect 751 members

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of the European Parliament. The UK currently has

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73 MEPs, who have some say over the EU budget

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and new legislation. But it's the unelected Commission,

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led by President Jean-Claude Juncker, that is responsible

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for day-to-day management, plus proposing and

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implementing new laws. Later this month, David Cameron

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will attend a crucial meeting of the European Council

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to press for his draft settlement, the outcome of his

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efforts to renegotiate our terms The Council is made up of the 28

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heads of state or government of EU members and decides

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the Union's overall political But it's not to be confused with

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the Council of the European Union, where ministers from each

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country meet to discuss, There's always been

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concern about a so-called democratic deficit and at the last

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elections in 2014, turnout In the UK, where few people can

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even name a local MEP, I'm joined now by former Respect

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MP George Galloway - he's said this week he'll campaign

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for Britain to leave the EU - and by the Labour MP

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Stephen Kinnock, who wants Stephen Kinnock, let me come to you

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first. Turnout at the last election was under 36%. Only 11% can name

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their MEP. Richie Gray the EU has a massive democratic deficit and the

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Cameron settlement does nothing to address it, does it? On the

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democratic deficit, of course it would be good if more people voted

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in democratic elections but let's not forget there is another

:20:23.:20:24.

democratically elected institution in Brussels and that's the council

:20:25.:20:27.

of the vistas and the European council. They are ministers. Our

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Prime Minister, directly elected by the British people, going to

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Brussels to exert influence for Britain. The democratic deficit

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sometimes gets tied up with the European Parliament. That's an

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element of it but the council is a major part. On the renegotiation, I

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think the really important point is that this referendum is not about

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David Cameron's renegotiation. This referendum is about the future of

:20:52.:20:55.

the United Kingdom as a trading nation, as a proud nation in terms

:20:56.:21:01.

of a diplomatic big player and where we are actually going in terms of

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the long-term future of the country. It's not about the precise details

:21:05.:21:10.

of David Cameron's renegotiation. Mr Cameron think that is important.

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George Galloway, you said you believe in a union of the peoples of

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Europe but surely the only realistic way to achieve that is to work for a

:21:19.:21:22.

reformed EU. Anything else is just rhetoric. No, because I think it is

:21:23.:21:33.

in the Brits of the EU. You pointed to the visibility of the European

:21:34.:21:36.

Parliament, its credibility and standing but you didn't add that the

:21:37.:21:39.

European Parliament itself, even if AT the centre people were turning

:21:40.:21:42.

out to vote for it, has almost no power. The power lies in this

:21:43.:21:48.

council of ministers and in a bureaucracy well entrenched, very

:21:49.:21:53.

lavishly funded, which has meant of its own. I could answer your

:21:54.:21:58.

question in two words - Catherine Ashton. Never heard of her? No. Ever

:21:59.:22:06.

elected to? No. She was the European Foreign Minister, dictating to other

:22:07.:22:08.

countries outside the world with no democratic mandate of any kind. I

:22:09.:22:14.

think we have to be more sensible about the way we talk about these

:22:15.:22:19.

things. There is a process of co-decision which is enshrined in

:22:20.:22:22.

the treaties of the European Union. The vast majority of the legislation

:22:23.:22:26.

which goes through has to be agreed by both the European Parliament and

:22:27.:22:30.

by the European council on the basis of proposals from the European

:22:31.:22:32.

Commission. Not necessarily all the council. Politics is the art of the

:22:33.:22:40.

possible and when you are part of a system of pooled sovereignty is,

:22:41.:22:43.

when we come together as nation states because we believe our

:22:44.:22:46.

sovereignty is actually strengthened through cooperation, of course you

:22:47.:22:50.

have to make compromises. You don't win absolutely 100% of everything

:22:51.:22:54.

that you go for but actually, I believe that through corporation and

:22:55.:22:57.

pulling our sovereignty our sovereignty is strengthened. There

:22:58.:23:01.

has been a lot of talk by the Prime Minister about asserting the

:23:02.:23:04.

sovereignty of Parliament. It seems to be one of the carrots to attract

:23:05.:23:09.

Mr Boris Johnson to come onside. But surely you have to accept that in

:23:10.:23:13.

many areas, the EU and the European Court of Justice, they are sovereign

:23:14.:23:16.

and Parliament has to recognise that sovereignty or we have to leave. I

:23:17.:23:21.

think that we have to also look at the likes of Google or the big

:23:22.:23:26.

multinational companies. They don't recognise the concept of

:23:27.:23:31.

sovereignty. For people on the left, such as George and myself, the key

:23:32.:23:36.

point of the European Union is, it's a transnational body that regulating

:23:37.:23:39.

transnational business. Not very well. It is not regulating them very

:23:40.:23:44.

well. Much better than we could do them alone. I don't think so. The

:23:45.:23:49.

bottom line is... And this is to be, on the left. Mr Kinnock senior and I

:23:50.:23:55.

shared many platforms on this, as well as the late Mr Benn, the late

:23:56.:24:01.

Mr foot. This was commonplace on the left. We don't want to be dictated

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to by other countries. We want our people to choose our government and

:24:08.:24:13.

thus our direction. And I'd rather take my chance with changing things

:24:14.:24:17.

in Britain than waiting for a change in Bulgaria or in Poland. But you

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are nationalists and doesn't but inevitably involve some kind of

:24:24.:24:29.

pooling sovereignty? The whole basis of the European Union... As we

:24:30.:24:33.

always said from 1975 onwards, on the left, the European Community,

:24:34.:24:38.

now the EU, is actually built on neoliberal economic principles,

:24:39.:24:43.

which are ironclad and unchangeable. However people want to vote. Are you

:24:44.:24:49.

comfortable with the manner in which Greece's sovereignty was overturned

:24:50.:24:52.

by the European institutions and above all by companies -- countries

:24:53.:24:58.

like Germany? We live in a highly globalised, interdependent world and

:24:59.:25:03.

the idea that the UK alone can exert influence and regulate the big

:25:04.:25:06.

multinationals on its own is absurd. The other key point on Greece is,

:25:07.:25:10.

how would we help the people of Greece by leaving the EU? Our

:25:11.:25:14.

principles are about solidarity, a key value on which European Union is

:25:15.:25:18.

founded, which is a value of the left. What was the solidarity that

:25:19.:25:23.

the EU showed Greece? I think what we need is a Labour Prime Minister

:25:24.:25:27.

in Brussels arguing against the politics of austerity. We are not

:25:28.:25:33.

part of the eurozone. This was a eurozone argument. We can still

:25:34.:25:41.

exert our influence. What many would think is your natural allies on the

:25:42.:25:44.

European left, so reads the increase, and a party in Spain, want

:25:45.:25:49.

to stay in the EU. Why are you right and your comrades wrong? The people

:25:50.:25:54.

of Greece were crushed underfoot by this neoliberal consensus on which

:25:55.:25:59.

the EU and administrations are built. Portugal actually had an

:26:00.:26:04.

election and elected a majority of left-wing MPs and we're told by the

:26:05.:26:10.

European Union, the president of Portugal was told, you mustn't

:26:11.:26:12.

summon these people to your palace to allow them to form a government.

:26:13.:26:16.

This is unconscionable. It's not because I love the people of Greece,

:26:17.:26:20.

though I do, or the people of Spain. I don't want us to face the same

:26:21.:26:26.

fate as them. Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonell's economic policies, which

:26:27.:26:30.

I believe in and which are badly needed, are illegal under the EU. If

:26:31.:26:35.

we were to save our steel industry, for example, we would be acting out

:26:36.:26:39.

with the European Union's legal framework. You've been closely

:26:40.:26:43.

involved in the steel industry. What do you say to that? I fail to see

:26:44.:26:49.

how our principles of solidarity and reaching out to our brothers and

:26:50.:26:52.

sisters in other parts of the year are helped by the idea that we

:26:53.:26:55.

suddenly leave. But to me seems to be going against the founding value

:26:56.:26:58.

of the Labour Party, which is solidarity. On steel, this is a

:26:59.:27:03.

classic example but it is up to your member state government to play the

:27:04.:27:06.

game properly. Unfortunately, we have a government that has been

:27:07.:27:10.

asleep at the wheel on steel for four or five years. An energy

:27:11.:27:13.

compensation package should have been put in place years ago. The

:27:14.:27:16.

government has done nothing about it. The massive flooding of Chinese

:27:17.:27:21.

steel into the British market has only been happening over the last

:27:22.:27:24.

four years. That could only be done by Europe, not Britain. It took them

:27:25.:27:28.

for years to get the stated clearance because nobody was

:27:29.:27:31.

knocking on the door properly in Brussels and because we are cosying

:27:32.:27:35.

up to Beijing. Cameron and Osborne seem to be putting the interests of

:27:36.:27:40.

our relationship with China ahead of British industry. We are allowing

:27:41.:27:43.

them to damp massive amounts of Chinese steel in the market. The

:27:44.:27:48.

European Court of Justice is preventing us from deporting

:27:49.:27:49.

Moroccan citizen, the daughter-in-law of Abu Hamza, Abu

:27:50.:27:54.

Hamza himself convicted of 11 terrorist offences. She has done

:27:55.:27:59.

time, too, for a terrorist elated offence. We still can't deport her.

:28:00.:28:03.

That is a pretty serious intrusion of our sovereignty. I don't know the

:28:04.:28:07.

details of that case but I do know we live in a very interdependent

:28:08.:28:11.

world... You said that. What people want to know is if we can deport

:28:12.:28:14.

foreign citizens who have terrorist criminal convictions. We did manage

:28:15.:28:18.

to do it with Abu Hamza, so there are ways. The EU is a rules -based

:28:19.:28:23.

organisation. It sets the rules of the game. It's up to the member

:28:24.:28:28.

states to play that game properly. Unfortunately, we have a government

:28:29.:28:31.

that has failed to build alliances and coalitions in Brussels. That's

:28:32.:28:35.

one of the reasons we have a difficult relationship with the EU

:28:36.:28:40.

now. When you look at this leave site and the various factions of the

:28:41.:28:44.

time they seem to be spending more time knocking lumps out of each

:28:45.:28:51.

other, does that make you happy you joined? I campaigned against

:28:52.:28:54.

breaking up Britain and for a no vote in the Scottish referendum.

:28:55.:28:57.

That didn't mean I was with the Tories, didn't mean I was with the

:28:58.:29:02.

Orange order. So are you solo again? There used to be a commonplace view

:29:03.:29:10.

from the 1970s, and still standing now, for a democratic future for

:29:11.:29:14.

Britain. We decide how many immigrants we have, who we deport,

:29:15.:29:18.

what our levels of taxation are and what our foreign policy should be.

:29:19.:29:21.

We will leave it there. Thank you both.

:29:22.:29:23.

Labour says it faces losing more than a quarter of its funding,

:29:24.:29:26.

thanks to Government plans to change the way the party gets money

:29:27.:29:29.

from trade union members, along with moves to cut state

:29:30.:29:31.

In a rare TV outing, the party's general secretary

:29:32.:29:35.

Iain McNicol has told us just how damaging the changes could be.

:29:36.:29:37.

In an in and is this have raised cash in the past. I started my

:29:38.:30:21.

constituency in Bradford raising ?1000, and other constituencies

:30:22.:30:25.

asked me to do the same thing. We have raised ?100,000. It is just as

:30:26.:30:32.

well, because the Labour Party could be about to lose ?8 million of

:30:33.:30:38.

funding if government plans to change the

:30:39.:30:38.

funding if government plans to from trade union members goes

:30:39.:30:42.

through. And they say it is no laughing matter. It is an affront on

:30:43.:30:49.

British democracy. If you look at any previous agreement which

:30:50.:30:51.

British democracy. If you look at the funding of a

:30:52.:30:53.

British democracy. If you look at was done on a consensual cross-party

:30:54.:30:57.

basis, and agreement because of the effect it had. Is this an

:30:58.:31:02.

existential threat to the Labour Party? It would be very difficult

:31:03.:31:05.

for the party. Around 30% Party? It would be very difficult

:31:06.:31:15.

our funding would mean we would not be able to operate in the current

:31:16.:31:18.

way that we do, holding the government to account

:31:19.:31:21.

way that we do, holding the Majesty's opposition. It is unfair

:31:22.:31:26.

and unjust. The cash goes towards staffing, reportedly around half its

:31:27.:31:31.

costs, and campaigning. Things like party election broadcasts, battle

:31:32.:31:37.

buses, and headstones. At the moment trade union members have to actively

:31:38.:31:42.

opt out. In the future they would have to opt in, in writing, within

:31:43.:31:48.

three months. Something Labour fear people will not get round to doing.

:31:49.:31:51.

It also coincides with the 19% cat to so-called short money, cash given

:31:52.:31:58.

to all parties to help with costs of Parliamentary business, a sort of

:31:59.:32:01.

concession for not having the civil service like the government does.

:32:02.:32:05.

But the man who used to be in charge of the civil service says the

:32:06.:32:09.

Government's plans are at best partisan. It goes to this wider

:32:10.:32:15.

question of what I would see as a worryingly authoritarian streak in

:32:16.:32:18.

government that finds it difficult to live with and accept challenge.

:32:19.:32:23.

And that is something the people of all parties, I'm a crossbencher, not

:32:24.:32:26.

in any party, but I think whichever party you are in you should be

:32:27.:32:33.

concerned about this. There is nothing authoritarian about having

:32:34.:32:36.

something like in our manifesto, voted for in a majority government

:32:37.:32:42.

and delivered on. If you are a Labour Party support the and you are

:32:43.:32:47.

a member of the trade union, you actively choose to do it rather than

:32:48.:32:51.

having it forced upon you. The Labour Party needs to get out and

:32:52.:32:54.

convince members it is a good use of its money to give that money to the

:32:55.:32:58.

Labour Party, just as the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats

:32:59.:33:00.

have to convince people to give money directly. We do not rely on

:33:01.:33:07.

people accidentally giving us money. Back in Kentish Town, organisers say

:33:08.:33:12.

a night like this is about raising awareness and morale as much as

:33:13.:33:19.

raising cash. Jeremy Corbyn's leadership campaign relied on

:33:20.:33:21.

grassroots support, and as funding dries up it could well need to rely

:33:22.:33:26.

on people like this, people willing to come to a night about Jeremy

:33:27.:33:29.

Corbyn that he himself is not even at. In fact, generally, may prefer

:33:30.:33:41.

appealing to people like this rather than big donors, and number of whom

:33:42.:33:43.

have already abandoned the party anyway. But fundraising and only 3%

:33:44.:33:51.

of the income last year, and the spotlight, following her liver pays

:33:52.:33:55.

its way in the future. We now say goodbye to viewers in Scotland to

:33:56.:34:00.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:34:01.:34:03.

Talks on the fiscal framework resume tomorrow.

:34:04.:34:08.

The Scottish Secretary says "both sides have done the dance,

:34:09.:34:10.

And Labour puts its new candidates for the regional lists on show,

:34:11.:34:17.

Looks like we're not going to get a deal before Valentine's Day

:34:18.:34:28.

on the fiscal framework that'll sort out the flow of finance

:34:29.:34:30.

between the Westminster and Scottish governments.

:34:31.:34:32.

It's not clear if there's a mountain or a molehill in the way.

:34:33.:34:35.

The Chief Secretary to the Treasury Greg Hands

:34:36.:34:37.

is in Edinburgh tomorrow for more talks with John Swinney,

:34:38.:34:41.

If you're not a policy wonk the negotiations might seem highly

:34:42.:34:46.

But there's been a warning that if they produce the wrong result

:34:47.:34:51.

they could cost the Scottish Government billions of pounds.

:34:52.:34:53.

We'll hear from both sides in a moment.

:34:54.:34:55.

Spiderman. The Reverend John Cumming of Aberdeenshire. Today is Victory

:34:56.:35:11.

in Europe Day. And Winston Churchill all said it, or something like it.

:35:12.:35:15.

With great power comes great responsibility. Holyrood is soon to

:35:16.:35:21.

get the power to collect around ?5 billion in income tax, newly ?3

:35:22.:35:26.

billion in rates, as well as billions in council tax, meaning

:35:27.:35:28.

that the block grant from Westminster will go down, but by how

:35:29.:35:33.

much? And in case you were wondering, this really matters. The

:35:34.:35:38.

fiscal framework in some respects is about very technical things, about

:35:39.:35:42.

how to adjust budgets, but these have fundamental consequences for

:35:43.:35:47.

the amount of money that a future Scottish Government will have at its

:35:48.:35:51.

disposal, the amount of taxes that the population will be expected to

:35:52.:35:55.

contribute, about the level of services that they can expect to be

:35:56.:36:02.

provided. It has fundamental implications for the everyday things

:36:03.:36:06.

that we expect a government to be able to deliver. Crucial to

:36:07.:36:11.

negotiations, the no detriment rule, that is the promise that whatever

:36:12.:36:15.

system is agreed it will not put Scotland at a disadvantage. The no

:36:16.:36:20.

detriment principle can be modelled by economists in a number of

:36:21.:36:23.

different ways, and there are billions of pounds at stake here in

:36:24.:36:27.

terms of which model of the no detriment principle you prefer. It

:36:28.:36:33.

was always going to be complex and difficult, but the complexity is

:36:34.:36:39.

compounded by our political commitment to abide by the Barnett

:36:40.:36:42.

formula for the duration of the current UK Parliament, until 2020,

:36:43.:36:47.

squaring the Barnett formula with the no detriment principle and the

:36:48.:36:50.

various commitments given by both governments in the Smith Commission

:36:51.:36:53.

agreement and everything else is difficult and takes time. As

:36:54.:37:00.

University of Basel alumnus Adam Smith looks on, a short seminar on

:37:01.:37:03.

the rival systems that have been suggested for making this work. The

:37:04.:37:07.

three options are per capita index deduction which eyes have supported,

:37:08.:37:13.

which insulates Scotland against demographic risk, then this simple

:37:14.:37:19.

index deduction method which simply looks at our attacks take relative

:37:20.:37:23.

to the UK, and then there is the levels deduction method which

:37:24.:37:26.

potentially actually is trying to do it Barnett on taxation which

:37:27.:37:31.

actually erodes the Barnett formula even more. These are the three

:37:32.:37:37.

methods, but per capita is the one that works best in terms of a fair

:37:38.:37:41.

deal on both sides. And that is because you see the Scottish

:37:42.:37:43.

population has distinct challenges that are different from the UK as a

:37:44.:37:49.

whole, or England in particular. Our population will grow slower than the

:37:50.:37:52.

rest of the UK because we do not have the powers to control that,

:37:53.:37:55.

would not have a revision policy in our control. But the no detriment

:37:56.:38:00.

principle cuts both ways, so the deal has to be fair to the taxpayers

:38:01.:38:04.

and the rest of the UK as well. The Scottish Parliament has a tax policy

:38:05.:38:08.

that generate additional income for Scotland, that is for Scotland, but

:38:09.:38:13.

likewise if it generates or has a policy which generates less income

:38:14.:38:15.

and why should taxpayers in the rest of the United Kingdom expected to be

:38:16.:38:19.

allowed Scotland? With the increased powers that we see in the Smith

:38:20.:38:24.

Commission agreement and the Scotland Bill come increased

:38:25.:38:26.

responsibilities, and that is what the haggling is about. But for now

:38:27.:38:30.

it seems like we might need someone with superpowers to get a deal done.

:38:31.:38:32.

A short while ago I spoke to the Secretary of State

:38:33.:38:34.

for Scotland David Mundell who came into our Edinburgh studio

:38:35.:38:37.

and I began by asking him what was "ludicrous"

:38:38.:38:40.

about the Scottish Government's demands.

:38:41.:38:44.

What I meant was that when we get a fiscal framework, and I am quite

:38:45.:38:53.

confident that we will, it needs to be fair to people in Scotland than

:38:54.:38:57.

30 people in the rest of the United Kingdom. And what that means is that

:38:58.:39:02.

the Scottish Government as their part of the deal have to take the

:39:03.:39:06.

risks that come with new responsibilities, but also if they

:39:07.:39:10.

are able to grow the Scottish tax base they also get to keep that

:39:11.:39:15.

money. So it is a balance of risk and responsibility, but it is not

:39:16.:39:19.

just keeping the Barnett formula, keeping any additional revenue

:39:20.:39:24.

raised in Scotland, having risk underwritten and maybe even getting

:39:25.:39:29.

tax funding from the rest of the UK as well. That is the parameters of

:39:30.:39:39.

our position. In your view, in what way was what John Swinney is arguing

:39:40.:39:43.

for a ludicrous? What is he demanding that you find so

:39:44.:39:47.

ludicrous? What John has said in the past is that he accepts that the

:39:48.:39:53.

deal has to reflect the Scottish Government taking on risk for policy

:39:54.:39:58.

choices, so that if they make good policy choices and raise additional

:39:59.:40:01.

revenue they keep that revenue, but if they make a policy choices and

:40:02.:40:06.

the revenue is less than anticipated then they have to bear the

:40:07.:40:10.

consequences of that. And that is basically at the core of the

:40:11.:40:13.

arrangement that I think we need to reach. And that we are capable of

:40:14.:40:19.

reaching. We are at the position now, both sides have done the dance,

:40:20.:40:23.

now we need to do the deal. Are you saying that the Scottish Government

:40:24.:40:28.

is demanding a system which would mean that Scotland would not have to

:40:29.:40:32.

bear responsibility for its own decisions? I think that some of the

:40:33.:40:39.

public comment has suggested that the Scottish Government did not want

:40:40.:40:44.

to take on the risk associated with their own policy choices. I think

:40:45.:40:50.

that that was a clear part of what the Smith Commission wanted to see

:40:51.:40:55.

in this arrangement, that you benefited from good policy choices

:40:56.:40:58.

but you had to take the consequences of poor policy choices. We have

:40:59.:41:04.

looked at it from a UK Government position, we have looked at the

:41:05.:41:07.

issues and concerns that the Scottish Government have raised,

:41:08.:41:09.

they have raised some legitimate issues that are legitimate issues

:41:10.:41:15.

about population growth in Scotland, issues around the ageing population

:41:16.:41:20.

and we have, and we are quite willing to look at accommodating

:41:21.:41:25.

those within these discussions. But the Scottish Government will also

:41:26.:41:28.

have significant levers to grow the population of Scotland if they get

:41:29.:41:34.

the policy choices right. If they make Scotland an attractive place to

:41:35.:41:39.

come to the tax regime, if they make it attractive to businesses. It is a

:41:40.:41:43.

balance. There are institutional issues in relation to population

:41:44.:41:47.

growth, but there are also issues that they can influence, and they

:41:48.:41:50.

need to do that with proper policy choices. But again, I just want to

:41:51.:41:57.

be clear, because the problem with this whole negotiation is that

:41:58.:42:00.

partly it is being done in secret and partly that even if it was not

:42:01.:42:06.

his fantastically complicated. The argument that John Swinney seems to

:42:07.:42:12.

be putting forward is basically that the deduction from Scotland's grant

:42:13.:42:16.

to compensate for the fact that Scotland is raising its own taxes

:42:17.:42:22.

should be based on a per capita share rather than a straightforward

:42:23.:42:27.

percentage share. Using that the new proposals would you have put on the

:42:28.:42:32.

table accent that? The point about the per capita share is that it

:42:33.:42:37.

would shield Scotland from the publishing growing slower than in

:42:38.:42:40.

England. Using you have changed your proposals to compensate for that to

:42:41.:42:45.

some extent? I am saying that we want to reach an agreement. We are

:42:46.:42:49.

taking forward issues that the Scottish Government have raised in

:42:50.:42:54.

relation to population, but it comes back to the point... But what is new

:42:55.:42:59.

about what you are proposing? You have said this week there is a new

:43:00.:43:02.

proposal on the table. What is new about it? We're not going to do the

:43:03.:43:08.

negotiations on this programme. There is a meeting tomorrow with

:43:09.:43:14.

John Swinney and the Treasury. I am asking you to tell me what is new.

:43:15.:43:21.

We have moved, we are looking to move to ensure we can take on board

:43:22.:43:26.

issues that have been raised about population growth, but getting that

:43:27.:43:31.

balance, taking account of Scotland's ageing population on one

:43:32.:43:33.

hand but on the other hand the Scottish Government and accepting

:43:34.:43:36.

that they have the capacity with these new powers to grow the

:43:37.:43:40.

population. They can make Scotland an attractive place to come to with

:43:41.:43:46.

the tax regime, the regime for business, and I am sometimes quite

:43:47.:43:51.

surprised how pessimistic the SNP seem about their ability to use

:43:52.:43:56.

these new powers in a positive way. These are really significant powers

:43:57.:44:00.

that can change Scotland's economy and the need to use them to do so.

:44:01.:44:04.

They would say Scotland has no control over immigration policy, and

:44:05.:44:08.

immigration is the most likely way to get the population to increase.

:44:09.:44:11.

So if you have a system whereby Scotland loses out if its population

:44:12.:44:18.

grows at a slower rate, that is not... May be at the margins with

:44:19.:44:22.

the policies you're talking about Piggott have an influence, but with

:44:23.:44:25.

no control over immigration policy Scotland could lose money through no

:44:26.:44:29.

fault of its own, and that is the problem. You seem to be accepting

:44:30.:44:34.

that they have a point. I do not accept that immigration is the only

:44:35.:44:41.

way to grow the population. If you make your economy attractive, if you

:44:42.:44:45.

make your tax regime attractive then people will come, and I don't accept

:44:46.:44:51.

the immigration argument. What I find rather odd is that when the SNP

:44:52.:44:56.

asked to just three months ago for full fiscal autonomy, that is an

:44:57.:45:00.

arrangement which independent experts say would leave Scotland

:45:01.:45:05.

with a ?10 billion annual black hole, they did not ask for

:45:06.:45:09.

immigration powers along with full fiscal autonomy. They were quite

:45:10.:45:14.

happy to take on board that huge gap in the Scottish budget without

:45:15.:45:20.

asking for any of the so-called levers that they need in relation to

:45:21.:45:24.

growing the economy. Are you suggesting that if the Scottish

:45:25.:45:31.

Government went along with your... Again I don't want to comment index

:45:32.:45:34.

reduction methods, that presumably is the basis of what you're

:45:35.:45:37.

suggesting, that the British government would be prepared to

:45:38.:45:41.

discuss giving Scotland powers over immigration. Is that what you're

:45:42.:45:44.

suggesting? I am certainly not suggesting that. Immigration is one

:45:45.:45:49.

of the reserve powers. It was not part of the Smith Commission

:45:50.:45:54.

arrangement. What I am suggesting is that the two sides are really quite

:45:55.:46:00.

close together. I am confident that our accommodating the various needs

:46:01.:46:08.

that we both have and what the Smith Commission set out as the parameters

:46:09.:46:12.

for a fiscal framework, that we can get that deal. I think people in

:46:13.:46:15.

Scotland want to see us get that he'll because they want to see these

:46:16.:46:19.

sweeping new powers in relation to tax and welfare coming to Scotland.

:46:20.:46:24.

I am putting all my energy into getting a deal UK Government is, and

:46:25.:46:29.

I am confident we can get one. If you cannot get a deal the SNP say

:46:30.:46:33.

they will walk away. RU prepared to walk away? No. We will not walk

:46:34.:46:39.

away. We will stay until a deal is done. You might not have much

:46:40.:46:43.

choice. It takes two to reach a deal. We not walking away. I know

:46:44.:46:51.

the people of Scotland want to see the Scottish Parliament have

:46:52.:46:53.

extensive new powers over tax and welfare, come that powerhouse

:46:54.:46:58.

parliament. We have seen the transformation already when the

:46:59.:47:01.

Scottish Parliament is debating tax issues, the vitality that has come

:47:02.:47:04.

into the political debate in Scotland. They do want to see that

:47:05.:47:08.

continue and get even more coherent and relevant with these extensive

:47:09.:47:16.

new tax powers. I'm not walking away, I want to get a deal,. What

:47:17.:47:23.

about this deadline of February the 12th? There was not a deadline. That

:47:24.:47:31.

is an arbitrary date. It is not even necessary for any Scottish

:47:32.:47:36.

parliament process because the following Monday both the Scottish

:47:37.:47:38.

Parliament and Westminster Parliament are in recess. We're not

:47:39.:47:44.

working for any arbitrary date. We are working to get a deal. Of course

:47:45.:47:48.

he won't that deal as we possibly have it. But I do not see the 12th

:47:49.:47:56.

or the 14th as being a deadline. The economists who have looked at this,

:47:57.:48:02.

very complicated formulae that are being bounced around, include that

:48:03.:48:07.

part of the problem is the Barnett formula. Because the Barnett formula

:48:08.:48:10.

is at the centre of this. We would not be better if we are going to

:48:11.:48:14.

have some sort of quasi federal UK to get rid of any deadlines and just

:48:15.:48:18.

put everything on the table? Perhaps get rid of the Barnett formula. If

:48:19.:48:23.

it is the problem that causes of these complications, why not just

:48:24.:48:27.

sit down over a period of months and some sort of constitutional

:48:28.:48:29.

convention and say, let's work something out? Lots of other

:48:30.:48:31.

countries do this, can we not do it? There have been various attempts in

:48:32.:48:41.

the past to look at different funding mechanisms within the United

:48:42.:48:46.

Kingdom at all the major PATCO parties went into the general

:48:47.:48:50.

election committed to detain the Barnett formula. We are going to

:48:51.:48:54.

work within the parameters of the Barnett formula. If it simplifies

:48:55.:49:01.

matters, why not get rid of it? I am sure academics and economists and

:49:02.:49:06.

others will continue to argue about the Barnett formula, those people

:49:07.:49:09.

have to come up with something else. One of the reasons the Barnett

:49:10.:49:14.

formula has stayed in place at is very easy to criticise it but

:49:15.:49:18.

difficult to come up with a viable alternative. Argue very much for

:49:19.:49:25.

joining us this morning. -- thank you very much.

:49:26.:49:27.

Listening to that is SNP Deputy Leader Stewart Hosie who's

:49:28.:49:30.

You heard David Mundell suggesting these new proposals the government

:49:31.:49:39.

have put forward go some way to addressing this issue that Scotland

:49:40.:49:43.

would lose out if the population did not grow as fast as England. What in

:49:44.:49:50.

your view is about what he is opposing that is new? I have not

:49:51.:49:55.

heard any new proposals in the same week David Mundell is not privy to

:49:56.:49:58.

these negotiations neither am I, all we can talk about is what is in the

:49:59.:50:03.

public domain and all that seems to be in the public domain at the

:50:04.:50:06.

moment from the UK Government is a mechanism that would lead perhaps to

:50:07.:50:10.

a ?7 billion loss to the Scottish block grant over a decade. That

:50:11.:50:16.

clearly breaches the Smith commission principle of no detriment

:50:17.:50:18.

and if that is where we are even with a little bit of tinkering, that

:50:19.:50:23.

we clearly be unacceptable to size with because it does not adhere to

:50:24.:50:27.

the principles upon which these powers were supposed to be

:50:28.:50:32.

delivered. Yes, but the other principle that the British

:50:33.:50:34.

government is understandably trying to protect is that they don't want,

:50:35.:50:40.

for example, increases in taxation made at Westminster to fund schools

:50:41.:50:43.

and hospitals in England to leak through to increased taxation

:50:44.:50:49.

increased spending in Scotland when Scottish taxpayers haven't had to

:50:50.:50:54.

pay any extra taxes on it. You presumably would accept that as a

:50:55.:50:59.

legitimate concern for them to have? Indeed, the no detriment proposals

:51:00.:51:02.

as you said in the package cup both ways. That is absolutely right.

:51:03.:51:06.

Let's remember what is at the heart of this. There is a modest set of

:51:07.:51:11.

taxes to be devolved. If the Scottish Government make the right

:51:12.:51:15.

choices and that yield goes up we benefit from that. If they make the

:51:16.:51:20.

wrong choices and dealers a shortfall in the Scottish Government

:51:21.:51:23.

need to take responsibility for that. But the bulk of funding still

:51:24.:51:27.

comes from the rock rant and that will still be driven by the Barnett

:51:28.:51:32.

formula. That is what was agreed by all the parties in the Smith

:51:33.:51:37.

commission so, if we accept that and everybody has in what we are arguing

:51:38.:51:41.

about in essence is how the block grant is adjusted in the future to

:51:42.:51:48.

take in the devolved taxes. What we are suggested that the academics are

:51:49.:51:52.

proposing and again this was the package is that this is the clearest

:51:53.:51:56.

and best way to do it that involves no detriment to side. Hang on. There

:51:57.:52:03.

are other academics. The problem with, again I do not want to get

:52:04.:52:09.

into much into the jargon but the per capita proposals that you are

:52:10.:52:14.

putting forward is that they would protect Scotland if its population

:52:15.:52:17.

grew more slowly than in England but it's better click -- perfectly

:52:18.:52:23.

legitimate for the government to take some responsibility for that.

:52:24.:52:28.

If you want more powers then if you are Scotland, in Scotland's

:52:29.:52:33.

population grows slower than England you have to be some of the

:52:34.:52:36.

responsibility. That is what you want more powers for. It is

:52:37.:52:40.

precisely these things you want more control than Edinburgh. That is

:52:41.:52:45.

right so what we want to do is use the powers we have and the modest

:52:46.:52:49.

powers to be devolved in order to make Scotland even more attractive

:52:50.:52:53.

than it is to grow the population. It is no issue with that at all. If

:52:54.:52:57.

we broke the population income tax increases and the share of VAT

:52:58.:53:04.

increases for example but we cannot have Unionist politicians running

:53:05.:53:06.

around making an argument about growing the population when the Ark

:53:07.:53:11.

resisting at every turn the devolution of immigration powers

:53:12.:53:14.

which are the quickest way to grow the population. You heard David

:53:15.:53:19.

Mundell the sea you never even asked for that. This is a UK Government,

:53:20.:53:24.

Unionist political parties who are even proposed to a post study what

:53:25.:53:28.

these so that people who work and study and learn in Scotland are able

:53:29.:53:32.

to stay for a few years to contribute to the economy. They are

:53:33.:53:38.

even saying no to that so I think this argument about population

:53:39.:53:41.

growth is simply a smoke screen for the fact they are trying to embed

:53:42.:53:45.

deeper cuts in the block grant than Scottish tax raising powers could

:53:46.:53:52.

possibly deliver. That is detrimental to Scotland and clearly

:53:53.:53:55.

breaches the Smith commission proposals. Yes, but the counter to

:53:56.:54:01.

that is if you index this on a per capita basis Scotland is completely

:54:02.:54:05.

shielded from its population growing at a slower rate so there is no

:54:06.:54:08.

incentive for the Scottish Government to do anything about

:54:09.:54:11.

that. But there is an incentive because as I have said if we grow

:54:12.:54:15.

the population the income tax yield would increase and the assigned VAT

:54:16.:54:20.

would increase and many other taxes would increase. It is a good thing

:54:21.:54:23.

to do anyway. Economic activity would rise. We are not seeking to be

:54:24.:54:30.

shielded from decisions we take. If we get a decision right in Scotland

:54:31.:54:34.

and the devolved tax yield goes up we benefit. If we take a decision

:54:35.:54:38.

and the devolved tax yield goes down we have two face the consequences.

:54:39.:54:42.

What we are talking about here is the overall level of the block grant

:54:43.:54:46.

which makes up the bulk of Scotland's funding is still supposed

:54:47.:54:51.

to be delivered by Barnett. That is agreed by all parties and we cannot

:54:52.:54:55.

have the UK Government seeking to undermine that and undermine

:54:56.:55:00.

Scotland's block grant any systemic way we above anything any devolved

:55:01.:55:06.

tax goods compensate for. That is wrong, it is unclear and beaches the

:55:07.:55:10.

spirit of all the negotiations. You also heard David Mundell saying the

:55:11.:55:16.

two sides in all this, taking the rhetoric away, art pretty close

:55:17.:55:20.

together, is that your view? Now, from what I have seen, neither David

:55:21.:55:26.

Mundell or myself are privy to these negotiations, but from what I have

:55:27.:55:30.

seen publicly they've is a considerable distance to go. The

:55:31.:55:33.

Scottish Government want to stick to the no detriment principle but the

:55:34.:55:38.

UK Government want to stick to systemic funding. I think that is

:55:39.:55:42.

quite a week ago and I hope a deal can be struck. What happens if the

:55:43.:55:50.

is no deal? Well the First Minister and the Deputy First Minister have

:55:51.:55:54.

been absolutely clear, if we cannot get a deal that adheres to the no

:55:55.:55:58.

detriment caused them a bill pull on the handbrake or rather they will

:55:59.:56:02.

and they will not sign off a legislative consent motion for these

:56:03.:56:07.

powers. That is the responsibility and the power of the Scottish

:56:08.:56:11.

Parliament has and if they heart to wield that in those circumstances

:56:12.:56:14.

against UK Government intransigence then the government will well

:56:15.:56:19.

understand we are not prepared to sign of a deal that embeds cuts to

:56:20.:56:24.

Scotland. Would you be happy as an SNP politician going into the May

:56:25.:56:28.

election saying Scotland has been offered full control of income tax

:56:29.:56:32.

but as you are the Nationalists party we have said no, we do not

:56:33.:56:37.

want it best to mark the is a national party. We have been offered

:56:38.:56:41.

the modest set of powers. I would like to see them but I am not

:56:42.:56:45.

prepared to go into any election, any time, the mere legend

:56:46.:56:49.

notwithstanding, and say we have signed up to a 7 million at in

:56:50.:56:53.

Scotland's systemic funding over a decade will stop that would be

:56:54.:56:57.

ridiculous in terms of what the Scottish Government was then able to

:56:58.:56:59.

ridiculous in terms of what the find than do over the next ten

:57:00.:57:03.

years. So, you were just say that is it an what? The discussions are

:57:04.:57:09.

finished on until after the election or what? I hope we can get a deal

:57:10.:57:14.

done within the time set. If the parties or governments are required

:57:15.:57:17.

to negotiate a little longer let them negotiate a little longer but

:57:18.:57:21.

what we cannot sign up to is the systemic factors Scotland's funding.

:57:22.:57:25.

You have said that. Let me put the point to you that I put to David

:57:26.:57:31.

Mundell. The issue here, what makes this all so complicated as keeping

:57:32.:57:34.

the Barnett formula. If you get rid of that it becomes much easier.

:57:35.:57:39.

Wouldn't it be more sensible rather than politicians running around

:57:40.:57:42.

setting arbitrary deadlines to have some sort of constitutional

:57:43.:57:45.

convention where everybody sits down and says we want to reorganise the

:57:46.:57:50.

way the UK is run let's think about this any rational week? What is the

:57:51.:57:53.

judgment against doing it that way? We would love to see the finances of

:57:54.:57:57.

these islands run in a rational way in the. If we took full

:57:58.:58:01.

responsibility for everything and called it independence that would

:58:02.:58:05.

make perfect sense but we lost that referendum. What the matter that was

:58:06.:58:09.

the Smith commission and the Smith commission, all six parties signed

:58:10.:58:15.

up to Barnett continuing to fund the block grant with the exception of

:58:16.:58:20.

the devolved hours. That is where we are. That is what we are negotiating

:58:21.:58:24.

about. Let's have unions politicians in the UK Government stick to some

:58:25.:58:28.

of the promises they made and deliver this devolution on the

:58:29.:58:31.

principle of no detriment to Scotland. Thank you for joining us

:58:32.:58:33.

this morning, Stewart Hosie. The battle for second votes

:58:34.:58:37.

in Holyrood's May election is ramping up as a recent poll

:58:38.:58:39.

suggests that Labour will lose all of its 15 constituency seats,

:58:40.:58:42.

meaning the party is reliant on the regional lists

:58:43.:58:44.

to return MSPs. Insiders also reveal

:58:45.:58:46.

that the Conservative will pour resources into a campaign for list

:58:47.:58:48.

seats, as the gap between them Well, yesterday Labour released

:58:49.:58:51.

the names of the candidates Joining me is former MP

:58:52.:58:54.

and Public Affairs consultant, Are you beside yourself with

:58:55.:59:10.

excitement when you look at Labour's list candidates? Yes, I am managing

:59:11.:59:14.

to pick a calm face on it but it is hugely exciting. You explain to us

:59:15.:59:21.

why. Well the Labour Party, Scottish Labour is any very difficult

:59:22.:59:24.

position. You may have noticed were not exactly on the front food that

:59:25.:59:28.

the party had a choice where we had the list candidates trying to bring

:59:29.:59:33.

in new talent and I noticed Kezia Dugdale has been criticised in some

:59:34.:59:38.

quarters for not doing that. The alternative was trying to secure

:59:39.:59:40.

some of the more experienced and well known names. It could not do

:59:41.:59:46.

both. It has gone for the latter option to secure the well-known

:59:47.:59:50.

people. Many of whom have been here for a long time. I understand why

:59:51.:59:55.

the party has done that. I do not think a Scottish Labour Party group

:59:56.:59:58.

of MSPs in Holyrood without the likes of Johann Lamont and James

:59:59.:00:05.

Kelly, people like that, I think it's good that they are likely,

:00:06.:00:09.

likely to be back, we do not know yet. It does mean we had in the

:00:10.:00:13.

position within is very little new talent. The new candidates have come

:00:14.:00:18.

through our people who lost their seats from Westminster last May. The

:00:19.:00:23.

problem, Kezia Dugdale bid talk about some idea of having new people

:00:24.:00:27.

who had perhaps ever been involved in politics coming through to be

:00:28.:00:31.

candidates and get into parliament and this would make the Labour Party

:00:32.:00:34.

look like a completely different organisation. That is not going to

:00:35.:00:41.

happen, is it? It is not. It is a very good aspiration and ambition to

:00:42.:00:44.

have but it is incredibly difficult. If you're going to put the list of

:00:45.:00:48.

candidates out to a ballot of members which is what has happened.

:00:49.:00:52.

If you are the Labour Party candidate you are going to recognise

:00:53.:00:55.

the name of someone who has served as an MSP for years rather than the

:00:56.:01:01.

person who was an academic or the business person from another part of

:01:02.:01:05.

society you are going to put the number one against the names of the

:01:06.:01:09.

people you recognise which is why we have a list of people who have gone

:01:10.:01:13.

the whole been here for some time. That is not necessarily a bad thing

:01:14.:01:16.

because the next five years at Holyrood are going to be really

:01:17.:01:20.

difficult for the Labour Party at Holyrood the going to need people

:01:21.:01:23.

who had experience but the problem is without the new talent coming

:01:24.:01:26.

through Wien in the same position the SNP was in in 1990 97 years ago.

:01:27.:01:33.

That is a huge step back for the Labour Party. Perhaps the problem

:01:34.:01:39.

was Kezia Dugdale saying this in the first place because it raised

:01:40.:01:43.

expectations. The model I think she was using is the victory the SNP had

:01:44.:01:47.

in the general election but they got so many MPs that they could have an

:01:48.:01:52.

experienced hard-core and they could have fresh faces as well. Labour are

:01:53.:01:57.

not quite in that situation. Fresh faces that they had appeared would

:01:58.:02:01.

be replacing expedience. I think the problem goes back further than that.

:02:02.:02:05.

There are two reasons. Nobody prepared for the succession to do

:02:06.:02:10.

Donald Dewar. All led as an opposition, you let the convention

:02:11.:02:15.

he was prime demolition and nobody prepared for who would take over

:02:16.:02:20.

from Donald. More importantly the Scottish Labour Party has never had

:02:21.:02:24.

a strategy on the list. The SNP has right from the very beginning and

:02:25.:02:29.

worked it very well. Scottish Labour were so arrogantly thought they had

:02:30.:02:33.

to do was pay attention to who won the first past the post seats. Now

:02:34.:02:37.

we are reconciled to losing all, possibly all of the first past the

:02:38.:02:42.

post seats and concentrating everything on the list. Frankly it

:02:43.:02:46.

is doing everything 15 years too late. That is a strategy that should

:02:47.:02:50.

have been put in position from the very birth of the Scottish

:02:51.:02:51.

Parliament. In Deadwood. Do you think there will

:02:52.:03:03.

be a change. In your view, will Labour look more dynamic at least?

:03:04.:03:08.

Or is just the old, same old? I think what you had five years ago,

:03:09.:03:15.

because the party paid so little attention to who was on the list,

:03:16.:03:18.

you have some additional members, a very mixed bag. There were some

:03:19.:03:23.

brilliant ones, there were others that frankly should not have been

:03:24.:03:27.

there. You're being very polite. You mean because either did not expect

:03:28.:03:31.

to lose so many constituency seats. A bunch of people that no one

:03:32.:03:34.

thought would get got elected. Your words, not mine. But now the party

:03:35.:03:39.

has concentrated on getting the best people at the top of the list. On

:03:40.:03:42.

the whole that is what we have. Unfortunately we will have your

:03:43.:03:49.

MSPs, but standard will be significantly higher, and it has to

:03:50.:03:51.

be because will be fewer of them. significantly higher, and it has to

:03:52.:03:54.

Tom Harris, thank to the campaign group

:03:55.:03:59.

Scotland Stronger In Europe which will be launched

:04:00.:04:01.

in Edinburgh this week. to gather support for Britain's

:04:02.:04:06.

renegotiation of its relationship In Denmark, he won the backing

:04:07.:04:08.

of the prime minister who said The Polish prime minister backed

:04:09.:04:14.

Mr Cameron's proposals Here, there's been a mixed reaction

:04:15.:04:19.

to the deal with MPs discussing I am not arguing and will never

:04:20.:04:34.

argued that Britain could not survive outside the European Union.

:04:35.:04:37.

We are the fifth largest economy in the world, the biggest defence

:04:38.:04:41.

player in Europe with one of the most extensive and influential

:04:42.:04:44.

diplomats ignored works on the planet. The question is not good

:04:45.:04:48.

Britain succeed outside the European Union, it is how will we be most

:04:49.:04:52.

successful. I will Britain be most prosperous. How we create the most

:04:53.:04:57.

jobs. How we will have the most influence on the rules that shape

:04:58.:05:00.

the global economy and affect us. How will we be most secure. And I've

:05:01.:05:05.

always said the best answers to those questions can be found within

:05:06.:05:09.

a reformed European Union. But let me say again, if we cannot secure

:05:10.:05:13.

these changes are ruled out nothing. Second, even if we secured these

:05:14.:05:17.

changes, you'll never hear me say that this is now fixed. Far from it.

:05:18.:05:23.

There will be many things that remain to be reformed, and Britain

:05:24.:05:28.

would continue to lead the way. For all the sound and fury, the prime

:05:29.:05:31.

minister has ended up exactly where he knew he would be, making the case

:05:32.:05:34.

to remain in Europe which is what he always intended despite

:05:35.:05:37.

renegotiation spectacle choreographed for TV cameras over

:05:38.:05:44.

the whole continent. As his own backbenchers to telling us, the

:05:45.:05:46.

proposals from the European Council are simply tinkering around the

:05:47.:05:51.

edges. They have little impact on what you delivers for workers in

:05:52.:05:57.

Britain or British businesses. What is at stake is much bigger than his

:05:58.:05:59.

recent discussions. is at stake is much bigger than his

:06:00.:06:01.

whether we're in the is at stake is much bigger than his

:06:02.:06:02.

that is what the debate is at stake is much bigger than his

:06:03.:06:07.

UK will be in the run-up to the referendum. The timing of

:06:08.:06:09.

UK will be in the run-up to the referendum really matters to the

:06:10.:06:12.

electorate and the governments of Scotland, Wales

:06:13.:06:13.

electorate and the governments of Ireland, as well

:06:14.:06:16.

electorate and the governments of there are elections in May. How does

:06:17.:06:23.

it help to try and fit a couple of emergency brakes that lie within the

:06:24.:06:26.

control of the year and not as? Isn't the only way to get control

:06:27.:06:31.

our borders, our tax and our welfare system to leave and be a good

:06:32.:06:35.

European and let them get on with their political union?

:06:36.:06:37.

Time now for a look at the week's big stories and what's coming

:06:38.:06:40.

I'm joined by the Press Association's Scottish political

:06:41.:06:51.

reporter Lynsey Bews, and by the Sunday Herald's Scottish

:06:52.:06:53.

Tom, Europe, briefly. I sense something odd going on. All the

:06:54.:07:05.

politicians on the yes side think they need to deal with the

:07:06.:07:07.

Europeans, get on with that hand have a quick referendum, meanwhile

:07:08.:07:11.

the opinion polls are going in the opposite direction. It is a very

:07:12.:07:15.

interesting picture coming out at the moment. The public seems to have

:07:16.:07:19.

a very certain opinion about what is happening, because if you look at

:07:20.:07:24.

the campaigns, the no campaign, the out campaign, and the state

:07:25.:07:28.

campaign, the embryonic and chaotic, particularly the Out campaign. It is

:07:29.:07:34.

different either side of the border. It is largely for leaving site of

:07:35.:07:39.

the border. But the public seemed to be making up their own minds

:07:40.:07:43.

already. Do you think the Yes campaigners have something to worry

:07:44.:07:48.

about? I think the Yes campaigners are benefiting at the moment, as Tom

:07:49.:07:54.

said it is quite chaotic on the other side. They do not seem to have

:07:55.:08:01.

a coherent... In England, the get out people are streaking ahead, even

:08:02.:08:06.

when the no campaign is a model of how not to run a campaign. You

:08:07.:08:11.

think, what could happen if they got their act together? Absolutely. I

:08:12.:08:17.

think when it comes to the crunch, when you look at Scottish campaign,

:08:18.:08:21.

the campaign for staying in is much stronger. If you look at it purely

:08:22.:08:24.

from a Scottish perspective the campaign appear for staying in will

:08:25.:08:30.

do very well. But what happened in Scotland will not determine the

:08:31.:08:33.

result. Can you see the Mil people getting their act together? It may

:08:34.:08:39.

not matter, because the body of opinion is already in favour of an

:08:40.:08:44.

outlawed. If I were David Cameron, we saw reports in the newspapers

:08:45.:08:48.

this morning about panic at number ten, I would be worried, because

:08:49.:08:53.

despite the self sabotage of the Mill site, they are head. -- the

:08:54.:09:04.

chaos in the No side. In the newspapers, we saw this. That was

:09:05.:09:12.

John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor. It is clear what is

:09:13.:09:18.

going on here with this new policy of decreasing tax, that Labour are

:09:19.:09:25.

trying to stick some territory. Yes, they are trying to do a lot to

:09:26.:09:29.

puncture the SNP's self mythologising that they are the new

:09:30.:09:33.

party of the left, the anti-austerity party, and labour are

:09:34.:09:36.

saying, this is not the case. Look at what they do in practice. They

:09:37.:09:39.

are quite conservative, especially on tax. That might help Labour feel

:09:40.:09:45.

good, but I think the public already know this is how the SNP are and the

:09:46.:09:50.

support what they do. It might give Labour a warm glow but I do not

:09:51.:09:54.

think it will bring them any more votes. Is that your view? Yes, I

:09:55.:09:58.

think it was interesting the budget debate last week, Jackie Baillie

:09:59.:10:04.

wanted to do about principle, the principle of salvaging public

:10:05.:10:07.

services by making people pay more tax. She did not want to talk about

:10:08.:10:12.

what John Swinney wanted to talk about which was the detail of how

:10:13.:10:15.

you go about doing this. And Labour's plan for this ?100 rebate

:10:16.:10:20.

which they do not seem to be able to explain exactly how it will work.

:10:21.:10:23.

And the other problem for Labour, they have put this 1p on for every

:10:24.:10:29.

year, not just the first year when the initial tax powers come forward,

:10:30.:10:33.

but every year after that, when actually the SNP will properly come

:10:34.:10:38.

forward with some proposals when they powers over rates and bands

:10:39.:10:42.

come in. Liverpool have a problem looking at how this 1p rise across

:10:43.:10:46.

the comes into that. -- Labour will have a problem. Some people say,

:10:47.:10:55.

look, the 45%, as they like to call themselves, are written off for

:10:56.:11:00.

Labour in this election. It is the 55% where they might have a chance

:11:01.:11:04.

of inroads, and you will not win them over by seeing you will put up

:11:05.:11:08.

taxes. It is more of a survival strategy for Labour. We were talking

:11:09.:11:13.

about how perilous these elections look for them and how they are

:11:14.:11:16.

turning to the list vote. They just have to get through these elections

:11:17.:11:20.

were some sort of credibility on the far side, severe try feel robbed

:11:21.:11:22.

their own base vote. They're trying to leech a few votes away from the

:11:23.:11:28.

SNP, maybe people who voted yes because there's probably some sort

:11:29.:11:32.

of left-wing Nirvana underwater pool those people back. But really it is

:11:33.:11:36.

about trying to get through this election. Add line from the

:11:37.:11:49.

Telegraph about 30. -- about Turkey. This is a refugee crisis on top of

:11:50.:11:54.

the refugee crisis we have already because of what is happening in the

:11:55.:12:00.

area around Aleppo. Yes, it is very worrying for people who are in Syria

:12:01.:12:07.

and trying to escape from the atrocities and the attacks that are

:12:08.:12:11.

going on, and again it serves to highlight what a mess that country

:12:12.:12:16.

is in and how we collectively have failed to really make inroads to

:12:17.:12:20.

addressing any of the issues that are going on. And other side of

:12:21.:12:25.

this, of course, is that it is possible, perhaps not likely, but

:12:26.:12:31.

possible that the Assad- Britain strategy could win outright. --

:12:32.:12:40.

Assad-Vladimir Putin. If they take Aleppo, most of the urban areas will

:12:41.:12:43.

be back under the control of the Syrian government. Possibly, but it

:12:44.:12:52.

will not get our out of Syria or anything like that. Lindsay is

:12:53.:12:55.

right. This is a terrible tragedy that is happening right now. One

:12:56.:13:00.

could easily imagine Assad and Vladimir Putin getting that and

:13:01.:13:06.

saying, we will turn our weapons on Isis, and you in the West who sit

:13:07.:13:09.

around wringing your hands about how terrible it all is, we've done this

:13:10.:13:15.

and we are now go to tackle IS, and you have done nothing. You are

:13:16.:13:19.

braver man than I am because I would not like to predict. I'm not

:13:20.:13:24.

predicting, it is just one scenario. Nothing is simple in that country.

:13:25.:13:29.

And I hope we can avoid another tragedy in Aleppo, as I don't know

:13:30.:13:34.

how it is going to pan out. There is pressure already on Turkey to open

:13:35.:13:39.

its borders. Absolutely. And these people are in a perilous situation.

:13:40.:13:44.

This is another humanitarian crisis on quite a large scale. I do both

:13:45.:13:46.

very much indeed. I'll be back at the

:13:47.:13:47.

same time next week.

:13:48.:13:52.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer look at the current state of the European Union renegotiations with Eric Pickles, and debate the question of sovereignty in the EU with George Galloway and Stephen Kinnock. Andrew also speaks to the Shadow Leader of the House of Lords, Baroness Smith, about government plans to alter union funding of the Labour Party. Keeping Andrew company throughout the show are Janan Ganesh from the Financial Times, the Guardian's Nick Watt and Helen Lewis from the New Statesman.


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