06/03/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


06/03/2016

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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The leave campaign deploys Boris Johnson to defeat

:00:36.:00:41.

what they call Project Fear, but are the remain campaign

:00:42.:00:43.

George Osborne hoped taxing pensions would help him fill the black hole

:00:44.:00:49.

in the public finances, so why has he abandoned his plans

:00:50.:00:52.

And four more states have voted - is Trump a step closer

:00:53.:00:59.

the Conservatives will overtake Labour in the elections and become

:01:00.:01:13.

Will she be able to kick the party into touch?

:01:14.:01:17.

if this development could be the answer to London's housing problems.

:01:18.:01:30.

And talking of Project Fear, with us for the duration this

:01:31.:01:34.

morning, a terrifying political panel whose incisive insights strike

:01:35.:01:39.

fear into the hearts of politicians everywhere.

:01:40.:01:44.

Toby Young, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.

:01:45.:01:48.

So, he took a while to make his mind up which way to swing,

:01:49.:01:51.

but those campaigning for the UK to leave the European Union

:01:52.:01:54.

will hope the deployment of their most charismatic performer

:01:55.:01:56.

- Boris Johnson - on the Marr Show this morning

:01:57.:01:59.

The Mayor of London took a swing at the deal the David Cameron

:02:00.:02:13.

the stated Government policy was that we should have a reformed

:02:14.:02:18.

EU, fundamentally reformed, wholesale change in Britain's

:02:19.:02:19.

relationship with the EU was promised.

:02:20.:02:21.

That has obviously not been delivered.

:02:22.:02:22.

We were told at the time that Britain would be perfectly safe

:02:23.:02:25.

to walk away, by the Government, by the Prime Minister.

:02:26.:02:27.

That has now, that rhetoric has now very much been changed,

:02:28.:02:30.

I think, by the way, the policy was right then.

:02:31.:02:38.

We should be absolutely confident about the future of this country.

:02:39.:02:41.

What do you make of his performance? David Lloyd George said negotiating

:02:42.:02:48.

with devil are was like trying to pick up mercury with a fog, and I

:02:49.:02:53.

imagine Andrew Marr feels similarly after trying to pin down Boris

:02:54.:02:59.

Johnson over questions of the Brexit.

:03:00.:03:12.

If these leaves campaign don't have an agreement on something that

:03:13.:03:18.

fundamental, you can see them struggling with the real harsh light

:03:19.:03:21.

of scrutiny getting applied in the later weeks of this referendum

:03:22.:03:25.

campaign, I think what will end up happening is there will be a

:03:26.:03:29.

division of Labour whereby Michael Gove leads on the hard detail and

:03:30.:03:34.

interviews such as this, Boris Johnson does what he's good at such

:03:35.:03:38.

is the retail politics, and we don't have incidents like that worrying

:03:39.:03:44.

level of confusion. Was it an assured level of performance? I

:03:45.:03:51.

think the way that interview will be seen is as Boris not being able to

:03:52.:03:56.

get a wording edgeways, being constantly interrupted, not being

:03:57.:03:59.

allowed to develop his points, and that will add to a sense of

:04:00.:04:03.

grievance which is emerging as one of the features of this campaign.

:04:04.:04:10.

The leaves campaign already complaining about George Osborne

:04:11.:04:18.

lining up the G20, David Cameron getting these European leaders to

:04:19.:04:23.

weigh in on the remaining side. That grievance narrative will probably be

:04:24.:04:26.

powerful when it comes to mobilising the debate. Wasn't he being

:04:27.:04:31.

interrupted because Andrew Marr was trying to get him to address the

:04:32.:04:37.

point? When you interview Boris, you have got to come not just Boris, but

:04:38.:04:41.

when you interview him you have got to interrupt because quite often

:04:42.:04:44.

politicians just play for time in these interviews. Often he was

:04:45.:04:50.

developing a particular point, and while he was trying to develop a

:04:51.:04:54.

point and answer what Andrew Marr had asked him, he got interrupted,

:04:55.:04:59.

but I think the general sense of grievance emerging on the leave site

:05:00.:05:03.

will help mobilise the levers when it comes to the actual referendum.

:05:04.:05:11.

The fact the levers feel more passionately than the remainders do

:05:12.:05:16.

about remaining will help the leave cause. I think that is the best

:05:17.:05:21.

defence you can give Boris this morning, it is worrying. There is a

:05:22.:05:30.

moment of extreme danger for Boris. What happens after the referendum,

:05:31.:05:34.

particularly if we stay in? Should he take a Cabinet job, in which he

:05:35.:05:41.

affects people's lives, or does he stay on the backbenches not making

:05:42.:05:46.

his move? He is in real danger. A lot of his popularity comes from the

:05:47.:05:51.

fact he doesn't do politics. He hasn't got an enormous track record

:05:52.:05:55.

to his name as London mayor, and people don't have a huge amount of

:05:56.:05:59.

tolerance for that hail fellow well met act. Is there a lot of

:06:00.:06:09.

grievance, as Toby says? Yes, you can imagine how much worse it will

:06:10.:06:18.

be later on. Things like Scheuble's interview, where he said Britain

:06:19.:06:27.

would have to pay in to have access to the EU market, that could be seen

:06:28.:06:34.

as bullying. If you are on the other side of the argument, of course you

:06:35.:06:40.

will see it as provocative. My worry is the campaign will get poisonous,

:06:41.:06:44.

and the opening two weeks is reflective of something much worse.

:06:45.:06:50.

If this grievance narrative begins to gain traction over the course of

:06:51.:06:55.

that campaign, won't it help mobilise the leave side? We have

:06:56.:06:59.

seen how it can motivate voters in America with Donald Trump. But there

:07:00.:07:04.

was grievance in the Scottish referendum, I think it helps, but to

:07:05.:07:11.

win plurality you need to go beyond grievance. That partly depends on

:07:12.:07:18.

turnout and if the public are turned off by the negative tone of the

:07:19.:07:21.

debate, you will have a low turnout and that will probably favour

:07:22.:07:26.

leaving rather than remaining. We will see. It is a long time until

:07:27.:07:31.

July the 23rd. It's been branded Project Fear

:07:32.:07:34.

by opponents and in a moment I'll be talking to one of the remain

:07:35.:07:37.

campaign's chief protagonists. First, here's a reminder of how

:07:38.:07:39.

they've been making their case over Tell us what the model

:07:40.:07:42.

is that they believe the European Union would

:07:43.:07:49.

negotiate with Britain. Remember, this is going

:07:50.:07:51.

to be a divorce if we decide to leave, and as with any

:07:52.:07:53.

divorce it is likely to get messy. In many ways, I am a Eurosceptic,

:07:54.:08:00.

absolutely, and I'm still a Brussels basher in many ways

:08:01.:08:04.

and will always remain so. I think the answer to the concerns

:08:05.:08:15.

that people have, and these concerns of course are not

:08:16.:08:17.

completely absent in Scotland, isn't to clamp down

:08:18.:08:20.

on free movement. If we leave, the people

:08:21.:08:28.

who are advising us to leave, they cannot at the moment answer

:08:29.:08:31.

the question about what arrangements So Project Fact is about saying stay

:08:32.:08:34.

and you know what we get. And I'm joined now by Nick Herbert

:08:35.:08:50.

who is leading the Conservatives' Let's go through a number of things

:08:51.:08:59.

your site has been saying. Firstly let's take the Calais camp, the

:09:00.:09:07.

Prime Minister 's office has said if we move the camp -- if we leave the

:09:08.:09:24.

camp will move to the south-east of England. They would be little

:09:25.:09:31.

interest in remaining the agreement we have that people stay on the

:09:32.:09:35.

French side. That will result in people coming over to this side, and

:09:36.:09:40.

we having to deal with them rather than the French, which means they

:09:41.:09:45.

can claim asylum in this country. And what was interesting about this

:09:46.:09:49.

claim, which I think is about a common-sense that is how the French

:09:50.:09:54.

would respond if we were outside of the EU and they no longer have the

:09:55.:09:58.

same set of incentives to cooperate, is that it was dismissed as

:09:59.:10:02.

scaremongering and now we have the most senior politicians in France

:10:03.:10:04.

confirming that this would probably be the case so this isn't

:10:05.:10:09.

scaremongering at all. What I'm wondering is why you would move the

:10:10.:10:13.

camp overnight to the south of England. Explain why they would form

:10:14.:10:16.

a camp if they have made it to Britain. The point is that we would

:10:17.:10:21.

have to deal with them on the British side. That would require us

:10:22.:10:27.

to send them back. One of the things we have in this debate that many to

:10:28.:10:33.

do is to remind ourselves that we have border controls in Britain, we

:10:34.:10:38.

are not part of the passport free area, the Schengen Agreement in the

:10:39.:10:43.

rest of Europe, and we can and do check EU citizens when they come in.

:10:44.:10:49.

We indeed turn them away. Thousands of EU citizens are turned away from

:10:50.:10:53.

our borders and it is too are advantage that the controls that

:10:54.:10:57.

prevent people from coming in are on the French side. Let's assume the

:10:58.:11:03.

French do what you are claiming. If they come here, if they make it

:11:04.:11:07.

here, either they will apply for asylum, in which case they will

:11:08.:11:11.

don't to official reception centres until it is sorted out, or they will

:11:12.:11:20.

disappear into the labour market. Neither involves creation of a camp

:11:21.:11:24.

in England. I don't know what was meant about a camp, what I do know

:11:25.:11:28.

is that at the moment we have arrangements where people can be

:11:29.:11:32.

stopped on the French side, the French would have little incentive

:11:33.:11:39.

to keep that if we walk out of the EU. It was initially dismissed on

:11:40.:11:43.

this site by Brexit campaigners as scaremongering, I think it is a very

:11:44.:11:47.

good example of an issue that we will have to deal with if we leave.

:11:48.:11:52.

You keep on mentioning these French politicians, only one has said this,

:11:53.:11:58.

that the economics minister. Would you like to tell our viewers what

:11:59.:12:05.

the interior minister has said? Right up to President Hollande... He

:12:06.:12:12.

didn't say anything about that. President Hollande and his ministers

:12:13.:12:16.

have said this will be on the agenda. There is a raft of French

:12:17.:12:19.

politicians who have made this clear. Name one. Common sense would

:12:20.:12:31.

tell us that if there is an arrangement, because it is a part of

:12:32.:12:35.

the cooperation and partnership we have with the French that they would

:12:36.:12:37.

no longer have that same arrangement if we were out of the EU. I will

:12:38.:12:43.

tell you what the French interior minister says, he says ending the

:12:44.:12:48.

treaties which govern the Calais camp would not be responsible

:12:49.:12:52.

solution, we will not do it, we would like to go on building a good

:12:53.:12:56.

immigration policy with the UK, especially at Calais. Other French

:12:57.:13:02.

ministers have said different things. One. Let's just look at what

:13:03.:13:17.

governs the Calais camp. The 1991 protocol governs the tunnel, another

:13:18.:13:33.

treaty... Wires are EU membership critical factor? I have already made

:13:34.:13:37.

that point, that this a separate issue legally to our EU membership

:13:38.:13:43.

of the question is what incentive would the French have to continue

:13:44.:13:46.

with those arrangements if we were outside of the EU, and it is as I

:13:47.:13:52.

say senior French politicians themselves and local French

:13:53.:13:55.

politicians who are raising these questions. What I think is a

:13:56.:14:01.

reminder of... But these are EU treaties, Anglo-French treaties, the

:14:02.:14:06.

French could stop them tomorrow whether we are in or out. I said

:14:07.:14:11.

that before you did that it is legally a separate matter, but

:14:12.:14:15.

politically I think there is little doubt that the French would not have

:14:16.:14:19.

the same set of incentives to stand by this issue. That was made clear

:14:20.:14:23.

at the highest level last year. All of this is a reminder that Britain

:14:24.:14:27.

is in a different position than the rest of our EU partners. We are not

:14:28.:14:32.

in the Schengen arrangement, we do have border controls. It is in our

:14:33.:14:36.

interests that some of those border controls operate on the other side

:14:37.:14:42.

of the Channel Tunnel, and in our interest that we continue to remain

:14:43.:14:45.

outside of the Schengen area. It is one of the things that gives Britain

:14:46.:14:48.

the best of both worlds, we are able to access the market but outside of

:14:49.:14:53.

the passport free area. The protocol that governs the tunnel is a

:14:54.:14:57.

protocol to the Treaty of Canterbury which sets up the tunnel, there is

:14:58.:15:01.

no way you can change it without reneging on the treaty. To close

:15:02.:15:07.

down the existing situation would effectively close the tunnel. The

:15:08.:15:11.

French government owns 55% of the operation of the tunnel, why would

:15:12.:15:19.

they do that in or out of the EU? Ask the French politicians. You

:15:20.:15:25.

confirmed it was the senior French minister. He said he was implicitly

:15:26.:15:32.

confirmed by the President. He hopes to be running for President next

:15:33.:15:37.

year. None of this has come out of thin air. It has come because it

:15:38.:15:40.

would very obviously be one of the ways in which we would lose out,

:15:41.:15:44.

potentially, from withdrawing from the EU. That is because the same

:15:45.:15:48.

sort of arrangements that means that we cooperate with our partners would

:15:49.:15:53.

no longer exist. Let's move onto the benefits of membership. Your side of

:15:54.:15:59.

the campaign has said that we benefit ?3000 per household has

:16:00.:16:04.

accumulated over our time in the EU. Do you stand by that figure? It was

:16:05.:16:09.

a CBI figure and it was not actually their own calculation. What they did

:16:10.:16:13.

was look at a range of studies that show the economic benefits of the

:16:14.:16:17.

single market. They range from some saying that there was not a benefit,

:16:18.:16:19.

single market. They range from some to some saying there was a very

:16:20.:16:23.

substantial benefit. They have updated this research just last

:16:24.:16:26.

month and they said that the majority of the studies showed there

:16:27.:16:31.

was a substantial benefit. About 10% of JD chilly GDP. They calculate it

:16:32.:16:39.

as ?10,000 per head. You are using it, Britain is stronger in Europe,

:16:40.:16:45.

do you stand by it? It is the CBI's figure. Do you stand by it? It is a

:16:46.:16:50.

average figure that has been done by the studies that have been done, not

:16:51.:16:56.

just the CBI's own studies. It shows there is a net benefit to us being

:16:57.:17:03.

in the single market. Do you stand by the ?3000 figure? It is not a

:17:04.:17:08.

figure I have used. Your campaign has used it, look down there,

:17:09.:17:14.

Britain Is Stronger In Europe. It is a perfectly reasonable figure for

:17:15.:17:17.

them to use because it is a study that has been done, not their

:17:18.:17:20.

studies. The majority of those studies that have been done, they

:17:21.:17:24.

show that there is a benefit to being in the single market. The CBI

:17:25.:17:31.

stays of its study of 12 research papers, originally beginning with

:17:32.:17:35.

five, all of which were pro-EU, it has widened that to 12, some of

:17:36.:17:41.

which are more hostile. It there is an and avoidable degree of

:17:42.:17:51.

uncertainty. But you have to caveat that? We need to weigh up the costs

:17:52.:17:58.

and benefits. The majority of the studies showed that there would be a

:17:59.:18:03.

benefit. That could be more substantial. In terms of the

:18:04.:18:06.

increase in GDP, the domestic product, that has been gained as a

:18:07.:18:10.

result of being in the single market. It comes back to the single

:18:11.:18:15.

market, because it gives us easier trade and facilitates business,

:18:16.:18:18.

because it benefits the huge number of companies that trade with the

:18:19.:18:23.

European Union, there is a benefit to the whole economy. The big

:18:24.:18:27.

question is, if we were to leave the European Union, what alternative

:18:28.:18:31.

arrangement would we have? That is the question the opponents will not

:18:32.:18:34.

answer. They will not say if we would be in the single market or

:18:35.:18:38.

not. The risk is that we would lose those benefits. As a consequence,

:18:39.:18:44.

there would be an impact on businesses and, therefore, on the

:18:45.:18:48.

economic benefit coming to the country. On the research paper, you

:18:49.:18:52.

are right that the CBI did not do its own research, the latest one was

:18:53.:18:57.

12 research papers with 14 estimates. Out of those, it took

:18:58.:19:03.

seven. It did not include some of them. It happens that the seven they

:19:04.:19:07.

took out showed far fewer benefits. So we are right to be sceptical. The

:19:08.:19:13.

sample is down to a largely pro-EU sample. To be fair, I think you need

:19:14.:19:18.

to ask the CBI about its calculation. But what was striking

:19:19.:19:21.

was that the range of benefit and the majority of studies that they

:19:22.:19:27.

tuck it down to, the seven... Took it down to. Yes, was up to 10% of

:19:28.:19:35.

GDP. Most serious economic analysis shows there was a benefit to being

:19:36.:19:40.

in the single market for the economy. That is why businesses

:19:41.:19:44.

themselves, the majority of members of the British chamber of commerce,

:19:45.:19:48.

the majority of members of the Institute of Directors, the FTSE 100

:19:49.:19:54.

companies, a full third of the FTSE 100 companies said it would be

:19:55.:19:58.

damaging to leave the EU. The other two thirds were not saying the

:19:59.:20:04.

opposite. This claim of a decade of uncertainty, a vote to leave the EU

:20:05.:20:08.

would be the start, not the end of the process and could lead to a

:20:09.:20:11.

decade or more of uncertainty. Why would it take twice as long to

:20:12.:20:15.

withdraw from Europe as it took to win the Second World War? Because of

:20:16.:20:19.

the length of time it takes to do trade deals and make alternative

:20:20.:20:23.

arrangements. If you look at the average trade deal that is done,

:20:24.:20:30.

they take years. Canada's trade is still not fully signed off. It took

:20:31.:20:35.

seven years. We would have had to negotiate alternative arrangements,

:20:36.:20:39.

not just with the EU, that would be problematic enough, and the other

:20:40.:20:42.

side has not told us what arrangement that would be, but the

:20:43.:20:45.

one thing that is becoming increasingly clear is that it would

:20:46.:20:48.

not give us the benefits of the single market we currently have.

:20:49.:20:54.

With the 35 other trade deals that the EU has done, those arrangements

:20:55.:21:01.

would fall as well. Would we not just say, put the need to negotiate

:21:02.:21:07.

a single market agreement to one side, why would we not say to other

:21:08.:21:11.

countries, Morocco, South Korea and so on, we will continue with

:21:12.:21:14.

existing trading relationships. Why would they not agree? Because,

:21:15.:21:19.

automatically, all of these deals fall. But why would Morocco not

:21:20.:21:24.

continue to trade with us on the same basis as it does at the moment?

:21:25.:21:29.

The question is not whether people would continue to trade, it is what

:21:30.:21:34.

it terms the trade would be. On the same basis? We would have to

:21:35.:21:40.

renegotiate with the EU, which would be hugely problematic and we would

:21:41.:21:43.

be disadvantaged by the process that would be triggered. Stick with

:21:44.:21:48.

non-EU countries, why would a country that happily trades with us

:21:49.:21:53.

under the EU rules, why would they not continue to trade on the same

:21:54.:21:57.

basis out of the EU? It depends on the kind of deal that we are doing

:21:58.:22:03.

with the EU. If we are unable to do a deal with the EU, we would fall

:22:04.:22:07.

out altogether and then into the World Trade Organisation rules,

:22:08.:22:11.

meaning we trade with tariffs, which would be immensely damaging to

:22:12.:22:15.

British business and to jobs. Hold on, you mentioned tariffs. In your

:22:16.:22:23.

Project Fear scenario, sterling is down by 20%. The average tariff on

:22:24.:22:27.

cars would be ten. Overall we would be more competitive, we would face a

:22:28.:22:32.

tariff wall of 10%, but we would be 20% more competitive? What is wrong

:22:33.:22:38.

with that? What is wrong with all of this is that we have, at the moment,

:22:39.:22:43.

a situation of certainty, where businesses know they have access not

:22:44.:22:48.

just to the single market, but also to the 50 or more countries that

:22:49.:22:53.

have done deals with the EU, and more in the pipeline. That gives

:22:54.:22:58.

certainty. We face the prospect of huge uncertainty because the other

:22:59.:23:03.

side will not say what kind of deal would be on offer. They don't know

:23:04.:23:06.

whether it would be like Norway, like Switzerland, these are

:23:07.:23:09.

countries that have the benefits, some benefits of access to the

:23:10.:23:15.

market. It is essentially an open market from Iceland through to

:23:16.:23:19.

Turkey. There is not a single arrangement. But essentially open.

:23:20.:23:24.

Why would the European Union pick on us and not include us in that

:23:25.:23:30.

largely open market from Iceland to Turkey? Because, as the German

:23:31.:23:33.

finance minister said today, we cannot have access to the single

:23:34.:23:37.

market without accepting certain things. Those include freedom of

:23:38.:23:44.

movement and paying in. Overall, the single market gives us much greater

:23:45.:23:48.

benefits to the businesses than alternative arrangements. That is

:23:49.:23:51.

why it would be economically damaging to leave, in the view of

:23:52.:23:55.

most businesses. The important point is this. It is not just a question

:23:56.:24:02.

of the deals we would do, have to do with the EU, it would also be with

:24:03.:24:09.

the 35 other countries, more than 50 other deals, leading to a period of

:24:10.:24:12.

huge uncertainty that is damaging for British businesses and jobs. We

:24:13.:24:16.

have discussed that already. The director-general of the British

:24:17.:24:20.

chamber of commerce, suspended for coming out in favour of Leave. Did

:24:21.:24:24.

anybody involved in Downing Street have something to do with this? I

:24:25.:24:27.

think that is a ridiculous suggestion. I am not surprised there

:24:28.:24:33.

is unhappiness in the British chamber of commerce. They were meant

:24:34.:24:36.

to have a neutral position. The majority of their businesses, in a

:24:37.:24:40.

recent survey, said they wanted to remain. So, no Downing Street hand?

:24:41.:24:46.

Absolutely not. Why would they? Thank you very much.

:24:47.:24:50.

Now, the scenes of hundreds of thousands of desperate migrants

:24:51.:24:52.

that fill our TV screens provide powerful images for those arguing

:24:53.:24:55.

that we should turn our backs on the crisis-hit European Union.

:24:56.:24:57.

In a moment I'll be asking Ukip's only MP, Douglas Carswell,

:24:58.:25:00.

First let's have a look at what Leave campaigners have

:25:01.:25:03.

They need a free-trade deal with us and it will be a central part

:25:04.:25:13.

of the negotiations when we leave the European Union, an important

:25:14.:25:15.

part, but one where they have a commercial imperative

:25:16.:25:17.

Once we have control of our own borders, we can send back

:25:18.:25:29.

whoever we want so if somebody comes in and they are not appropriate,

:25:30.:25:32.

they shouldn't be here, they should've stopped in France

:25:33.:25:35.

or Germany or wherever, we will send them back.

:25:36.:25:36.

So the threat is both wrong, inappropriate, and won't work.

:25:37.:25:41.

Come on, donnez-moi un break, as we say in Brussels.

:25:42.:25:44.

It's sad but perhaps unsurprising that those who want

:25:45.:25:57.

the British people to be kept in the European Union have launched

:25:58.:25:59.

This is designed to make the British people afraid of change.

:26:00.:26:16.

Douglas Carswell joins me now. Let's look at some of the things your side

:26:17.:26:21.

have been complaining about. The cost of membership. We will stop

:26:22.:26:28.

sending ?350 million every week to Brussels. Do you stand by that

:26:29.:26:33.

figure? Absolutely. The reason I do is because every year we make a

:26:34.:26:38.

gross contribution of 19.2 billion, if you divide that by the weeks in a

:26:39.:26:44.

year, 350. We're talking about what we send to Brussels. Let's look in

:26:45.:26:49.

little more detail. This is from Office for Budget Responsibility.

:26:50.:26:55.

These are the 2014 figures. The column on the left-hand side, we

:26:56.:27:04.

have 18.3 billion. It is 19.2 now, but I will let that go. It gives you

:27:05.:27:10.

350 million. But before we send that, we deduct the rebate of 5

:27:11.:27:17.

billion. We don't send the rebate, we take the ?5 billion off. The

:27:18.:27:23.

contribution we send is ?13.5 billion and that is 260 billion --

:27:24.:27:34.

million per week. The figure is very vulnerable to the machinations of

:27:35.:27:39.

ministers. Look at what Tony Blair did with the rebate. They were fast

:27:40.:27:43.

and loose with it at the blink of an eye. What I am trying to point out,

:27:44.:27:49.

because the phrase here was we are sending ?350 million, we don't send

:27:50.:27:53.

the rebate and we send it back. We take the rebate off and then we send

:27:54.:27:59.

them 13.5. The rebate is very vulnerable, as we discovered when

:28:00.:28:03.

Tony Blair gave away a large section of it. It is very vulnerable to

:28:04.:28:07.

change. I think it's fair that we include a figure. But we don't send

:28:08.:28:10.

it. In addition to that, having not sent the rebate and sent 13.5, we

:28:11.:28:18.

then get 4.4, almost ?4.5 billion back to spend in ways that will be

:28:19.:28:23.

guided, sometimes dictated by the EU, but it is money that comes back.

:28:24.:28:27.

Our net contribution, as you can see from the table, is 9 billion. That

:28:28.:28:34.

is ?175 million each week. It is not 350 million. The reason I think it

:28:35.:28:40.

is vertical about the gross contribution of ?19.3 billion a

:28:41.:28:47.

year, you don't deduct the services you get from the government, you

:28:48.:28:51.

don't say your tax bill is zero because of the mended potholes and

:28:52.:28:57.

the streetlights and things you get. It is appropriate that we talk about

:28:58.:29:01.

the 19.2 billion we send every year. But I just explained that we don't

:29:02.:29:06.

send that. The actual saving, because the original quote was about

:29:07.:29:13.

saving to spend elsewhere, is 175 million each week. You can say it is

:29:14.:29:17.

too much, not enough, I don't want to stay in, but it's not 350 million

:29:18.:29:24.

a week. 350 million on the table, some of that is highly vulnerable

:29:25.:29:28.

because it is part of the rebate. I think it is right and proper we talk

:29:29.:29:31.

about that. It is enough money to build a new hospital every week. It

:29:32.:29:36.

would not be a saving, even out of the EU we would continue to have

:29:37.:29:40.

some form of farm subsidies and forms of regional aid? We would

:29:41.:29:44.

spend some of the money we currently send to Brussels for ourselves. I

:29:45.:29:48.

think instead of sending 350 million each week to Brussels, we would be

:29:49.:29:52.

better spending that money improving the NHS, giving a better deal to

:29:53.:29:56.

farmers, maybe even tax cuts. I think it is fair we talk about ?350

:29:57.:30:00.

million we have to send every week to Brussels. People will make their

:30:01.:30:02.

minds up on that. Let's move onto another issue. Nigel

:30:03.:30:14.

Farage has said 75% of UK law is made in Brussels. Do you with that?

:30:15.:30:19.

I asked the Parliamentary authorities when I first became an

:30:20.:30:23.

MP and they were not able to tell me. Some claim it is as little as

:30:24.:30:34.

15%, on our side some claim 70%. The German legislature in Berlin have a

:30:35.:30:39.

figure of 80%. Do you agree with the 75% figure? It is probably about

:30:40.:30:47.

right. What is the source? The question was talking about the

:30:48.:30:51.

amount of legislation that is emanating from member state versus

:30:52.:30:55.

that coming from Brussels. What is the source of the 75% figure? You

:30:56.:31:03.

just cited Nigel. He is not a source, he is a messenger. We have

:31:04.:31:08.

looked carefully at the research, we can find no credible study. Even by

:31:09.:31:14.

pro-Brexit groups that puts the figure at 75%. I have seen studies

:31:15.:31:25.

that show 25%, but I can find nothing that gives me 75%. I don't

:31:26.:31:29.

think this morning you can help on that. I have raised questions in

:31:30.:31:34.

Parliament and I am happy to forward on the answers I have got, but there

:31:35.:31:40.

is a question raised... The German parliament has produced a figure of

:31:41.:31:44.

80 something. For the German parliament. Talking about the ratio

:31:45.:31:55.

coming from Brussels. Vote Leave says if we Vote Leave we can take

:31:56.:31:58.

back control of our immigration policy. No country has full access

:31:59.:32:03.

to the single market without first agreeing to the free movement of

:32:04.:32:17.

people. As you demonstrated earlier this week when you quizzed Matthew

:32:18.:32:21.

Hancock, you can have free trade from Iceland to Ireland to Russia,

:32:22.:32:29.

so you can leave the EU and have tariff free access. Canada have

:32:30.:32:33.

recently negotiated a deal to give them free market access. The

:32:34.:32:43.

Canadian deal includes tariffs, even tariffs on some manufacture

:32:44.:32:51.

products, it includes tariffs on products and does not include

:32:52.:32:55.

anything to do with services and we are 80% service economy. But we

:32:56.:32:59.

would benefit, as a service economy. But we would benefit, as every

:33:00.:33:02.

country in Europe does apart from Belarus, for tariff free access. But

:33:03.:33:10.

how do you know that? The Council of the European Union is unequivocal.

:33:11.:33:16.

Two years ago, the internal market and its freedoms, one of which is

:33:17.:33:19.

freedom of movement, are indivisible, you cannot have one

:33:20.:33:23.

without the other. We know that last year we had a trade deficit with the

:33:24.:33:28.

other EU member states, about 60 billion. The idea they would

:33:29.:33:33.

introduce tariffs seems to me absurd. On the point of regulation,

:33:34.:33:37.

sometimes it is said we need to be part of the single market for

:33:38.:33:47.

regulatory reasons, but in many ways it is possible to have market access

:33:48.:33:51.

from a regulatory perspective without being part of the single

:33:52.:33:56.

market. If you are selling into Europe you have got to meet Europe's

:33:57.:34:03.

regulations... But do I take it that you are indicating that if we leave,

:34:04.:34:09.

we would not seek total access to the single market as we have at the

:34:10.:34:14.

moment? We would seek instead of free trade agreement which is less

:34:15.:34:20.

than a single market? We would see access to the single market but we

:34:21.:34:26.

would not want to be bound up. We would not initially seek full access

:34:27.:34:32.

to the single market? I think if we had tariff free access and wouldn't

:34:33.:34:36.

have regulatory obstacles put in our way, it would be free access. But

:34:37.:34:41.

the trade agreements you have specified, particularly the one with

:34:42.:34:46.

Canada, it is not a single market agreement, it includes tariffs, it

:34:47.:34:50.

includes... It does not include services. Look at Switzerland for

:34:51.:34:58.

example. Switzerland at the moment has 4.5 times trade ahead the EU

:34:59.:35:03.

from outside of the single market than we manage from within. But it

:35:04.:35:10.

does not have full access for its services. You accept that a free

:35:11.:35:22.

trade agreement... They have also moved huge chunks of their financial

:35:23.:35:26.

services to London so that they are inside the EU and can trade. Another

:35:27.:35:31.

confidence within the City of London. On Friday Suzanne Evans and

:35:32.:35:37.

your fellow Vote Leave supporters were sacked from their roles as UK

:35:38.:35:42.

speakers. Miss Evans has now been sacked twice, are you next for the

:35:43.:35:49.

job? Suzanne Evans is brilliant at this sort of stuff, we will hear a

:35:50.:35:54.

lot more from her. Are you next for the chop? Nigel described me as

:35:55.:36:00.

irrelevant, I have been called far worse in the elections I have

:36:01.:36:06.

stored, but in four of those five Parliamentary elections are won.

:36:07.:36:11.

That is the beauty of democracy. There is being a member of Vote

:36:12.:36:16.

Leave, and being a Ukip MP, are these things becoming mutually

:36:17.:36:23.

exclusive? Absolutely not, Vote Leave is now garnering support from

:36:24.:36:26.

the political left, the political centre right, and people... So why

:36:27.:36:35.

doesn't Nigel Farage? You need to address that question to him. He is

:36:36.:36:39.

your leader. There are differences of opinion. There is a strategic

:36:40.:36:47.

difference, I'm the think we need to win this election with an upbeat,

:36:48.:36:55.

positive campaign. Your leader says you are relevant, could you not

:36:56.:36:58.

resign the whip and become an independent? It is the voters who

:36:59.:37:05.

decide who is and who isn't relevant. Thank you for joining us.

:37:06.:37:10.

If you want more facts about the EU relevant. Thank you for joining us.

:37:11.:37:16.

referendum, you can check the BBC News website. It is excellent.

:37:17.:37:17.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:18.:37:20.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:21.:37:26.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:37:27.:37:28.

Coming up on the programme: Ruth Davidson aims to overtake

:37:29.:37:33.

Is she a safe pair of hands or could she drop the ball?

:37:34.:37:37.

Labour's Ian Murray is in Canada to learn how the Liberals achieved

:37:38.:37:44.

a landslide victory from third place.

:37:45.:37:45.

With the elections taking place in May, has he left it too late?

:37:46.:37:51.

What do the SNP and Labour have in common?

:37:52.:37:53.

They're both taking advice from the anti-austerity

:37:54.:37:57.

Nobel Prize-winning economist, Professor Joseph Stiglitz.

:37:58.:37:59.

Sunday Politics went along to his latest event.

:38:00.:38:06.

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson needs Labour votes

:38:07.:38:08.

if she's to secure her aim of making the Tories the opposition

:38:09.:38:11.

after May's Scottish Parliament election.

:38:12.:38:13.

One way she believes she can do that is by protecting public

:38:14.:38:16.

spending on the NHS and education and by rowing back on her previous

:38:17.:38:22.

pledge to use Holyrood's new powers to cut taxes.

:38:23.:38:24.

At the party's Spring conference at Murrayfield on Friday,

:38:25.:38:26.

she argued that cuts to taxes were too short-term.

:38:27.:38:28.

We sent our reporter Andrew Black along to find out what else

:38:29.:38:31.

Welcome to Murrayfield. Home of Scottish rugby and this week, home

:38:32.:38:58.

to the lunch of team Conservatives campaigned for the Scottish

:38:59.:39:01.

election. With things not looking great for labour Right now, the plan

:39:02.:39:06.

for the Tories is to emerge from the political scrum in second place,

:39:07.:39:10.

becoming the official opposition at Holyrood. But that could be a

:39:11.:39:13.

tougher challenge, so how do they go about it? Well, firstly, with a few

:39:14.:39:20.

changes to the squad. As a fan as a bid farewell to the many veteran

:39:21.:39:24.

Tory MSP is standing down to make way for fresh talent, team captain

:39:25.:39:28.

David Cameron turned up to do the pep talk. Let drape ourselves in red

:39:29.:39:37.

white and blue. Let us do more great things and get out over the next 62

:39:38.:39:42.

days and a winner for. Thank you! But image and rhetoric are only part

:39:43.:39:49.

of it. The Conservatives will need actual policies that people will

:39:50.:39:52.

vote for and new powers coming to Holyrood means that for the first

:39:53.:39:56.

time, the Conservatives can campaign on one of their favourite issues,

:39:57.:40:01.

cutting tax. Although Ruth Davidson has now decided that is not an

:40:02.:40:08.

immediate option. We can cut tax in Scotland, but over the medium term

:40:09.:40:12.

and our manifesto will show how. But if we're going to cut tax rates in

:40:13.:40:16.

Scotland, I believe that we as a nation need to earn it first. And

:40:17.:40:21.

the truth is, we haven't done that yet. So if cutting tax turns out to

:40:22.:40:27.

be a problem, do the Conservatives reckon that their overall strategy

:40:28.:40:32.

can a winner? Yes, we would like to see a Scottish Conservatives become

:40:33.:40:34.

the official opposition in Scotland, because we need the SNP Government

:40:35.:40:51.

to be held to account and be a real political alternative advocated.

:40:52.:40:53.

This comes after nine years of the Labour Party and six different

:40:54.:40:55.

leaders, all of whom have failed to offer that different vision.

:40:56.:40:57.

However, one expert who specialises in the ups and downs of the Scottish

:40:58.:41:00.

Tories is sceptical. There do seem to have been broader trends and

:41:01.:41:03.

movements was the Conservatives late last year, but it is difficult and

:41:04.:41:06.

if there were to match them, that would be 18 NMS peas and that

:41:07.:41:11.

whatever back to 1989. So depends on how badly Labour does as much as how

:41:12.:41:17.

good of the conservatives do. And another issue, Europe has split the

:41:18.:41:21.

Tories, but those who want Britain to leave the EU, said that splits

:41:22.:41:25.

doesn't have to last. We can still be the Government after the

:41:26.:41:29.

referendum. How easy or difficult it is to come together after that

:41:30.:41:33.

referendum is largely dependent on how well we treat one another in the

:41:34.:41:37.

run-up to that referendum. I think at all points we should recognise we

:41:38.:41:41.

have a difference of opinion and treat those differences with

:41:42.:41:45.

tolerance and respect. And the Scottish secretary who wants Britain

:41:46.:41:49.

to stay in argued the forthcoming referendum would not overshadow

:41:50.:42:01.

the May election. The EU referendum is a big issue. I don't think it

:42:02.:42:05.

will be the dominant issue in Scotland over the next few months, I

:42:06.:42:07.

think it will be the Scottish parliament elections. I think they

:42:08.:42:10.

will be at the forefront. I think the referendum campaign here in

:42:11.:42:12.

Scotland will really kicked off on the 6th of May. And, as the Scottish

:42:13.:42:16.

Conservatives focus on that election, can they kick for

:42:17.:42:22.

Holyrood's cup glory all voters send them to the sin bin?

:42:23.:42:25.

Joining me now is the leader of the Scottish Conservatives,

:42:26.:42:27.

Never have more rugby plans being made in a package for a political

:42:28.:42:38.

programme! We will take that as a compliment. Let us talk about tax.

:42:39.:42:43.

You say you don't want to cut income tax, initially. But it is still your

:42:44.:42:47.

longer-term view that you want to take advantage of the new devolution

:42:48.:42:53.

powers to cut tax? Firstly, we will try and protect pay packets. We

:42:54.:42:57.

already have the Labour Party and the Lib Dems they will increase tax

:42:58.:43:01.

and push the SNP in the same way. We say that is not a good idea, we do

:43:02.:43:04.

not want Scotland to be the highest taxed part of the UK. But in order

:43:05.:43:09.

to have them in future, we have to earn it. That means growing our tax

:43:10.:43:13.

base, printing more money in so that if we were half to cut tax further

:43:14.:43:17.

down the road, we would still be able to have the same contributions

:43:18.:43:21.

to our health or education service that we have now. Is not just that

:43:22.:43:28.

you don't want a cat 's -- cut tax now, you don't want to cut tax

:43:29.:43:31.

unless the economy is growing sufficiently that you can? We have

:43:32.:43:37.

at cuts in Scotland, part of the wider UK ones. We've had a tax cut

:43:38.:43:42.

for every taxpayer in Scotland from raising the threshold would. That

:43:43.:43:46.

will rise again next year to 12 and a half thousand pounds. There will

:43:47.:43:51.

be tax cuts UK wide. But we are saying that the big commission spent

:43:52.:43:57.

a year looking at this and they came back and no clear recommendation to

:43:58.:44:00.

me was that Scotland should not be the highest taxed part of the UK, we

:44:01.:44:05.

shouldn't tax people for living here more than if they lived in Carlisle,

:44:06.:44:10.

and I agree. And tax cuts were vulnerable in future but not now if

:44:11.:44:13.

we want to sustain the level of service we have. I agree with both

:44:14.:44:17.

of those and we will take those regulations into the election. But

:44:18.:44:22.

you think Scotland shouldn't have higher taxes than England, but you

:44:23.:44:26.

don't seem to mind England having higher taxes in Scotland? That is

:44:27.:44:31.

because I operate in Scotland, I believe in having competition. I

:44:32.:44:36.

think it is good that in Scotland we can say we are encouraging people to

:44:37.:44:41.

come here. We don't do that when we do something like the SNP did which

:44:42.:44:45.

was to overnight in the last Budget doubled the large business

:44:46.:44:52.

supplements. That only... It hopes to -- hits a quarter of the nurses

:44:53.:44:55.

in Edinburgh and Glasgow. So you to -- hits a quarter of the nurses

:44:56.:45:01.

don't mind up? What about the other eminent people who you describe came

:45:02.:45:07.

up with... - most people describe them as eminence. The public policy

:45:08.:45:14.

experts, you know, pretty decent people. A 30p rate is one idea they

:45:15.:45:20.

came up with. Will you do that? We are looking at it. The proposal was

:45:21.:45:26.

that they would jump between 20 and 40 is quite a steep jump. People

:45:27.:45:31.

would agree with that. There is an opportunity from next year to start

:45:32.:45:37.

changing bands in Scotland, even adding them if required and moving

:45:38.:45:41.

the threshold. It is something we are looking at and I will pre-empt

:45:42.:45:45.

our manifesto by Pabst telling you to make things here that is OK.

:45:46.:45:51.

Except, you want folks, why not? Why not say we will adopt this, it is a

:45:52.:45:56.

great idea? Well, you will see more of our tax plans, we will be

:45:57.:45:58.

great idea? Well, you will see more response to the Budget in a couple

:45:59.:46:03.

of weeks, so after we see the Chancellor's Budget down south, we

:46:04.:46:06.

will do our response and you will also see in our manifesto...

:46:07.:46:14.

Finally, what puzzles me about this, OK, don't declare for a because you

:46:15.:46:17.

don't want to pre-empt your manifesto. But it would pay this

:46:18.:46:23.

theoretical 30p tax? Well, the way in which the Independent Commission

:46:24.:46:25.

looked at it was they were looking at instead of having the 20p rate

:46:26.:46:32.

and 30p rate being at the same place, so you earn the same amount

:46:33.:46:35.

of money to get to them, they would move that nobody paying more and the

:46:36.:46:39.

of money to get to them, they would system. So somebody paying 20p at

:46:40.:46:42.

the moment would have to pay more tax? Not if you set the band at a

:46:43.:46:47.

suitable way... So at the moment it is 40 2000. You stop paying 40p. The

:46:48.:46:54.

idea would be to have an extra band inserted between that and 40p. When

:46:55.:46:59.

you pay 30p. But you can move up to the level where 40p was paid. That

:47:00.:47:04.

is fluent. One of the great benefits, new powers coming in. It

:47:05.:47:09.

allows much greater flexibility. You don't have to state the same rates

:47:10.:47:14.

as anywhere else. -- stay at the same rates. But I'm still puzzled

:47:15.:47:18.

because George Osborne said over a series of moves he wants to take the

:47:19.:47:22.

threshold where you stop paying 40p for 42,000 up to 50,000. Is that a

:47:23.:47:28.

move you are in favour of? Let us see what he does in the Budget... He

:47:29.:47:33.

said he wants to do that. He said he wants to do that over time. Is that

:47:34.:47:37.

a good idea? I think more people have been dragged into the higher

:47:38.:47:41.

rate of tax in the last few years because thresholds have not changed.

:47:42.:47:45.

The Government hasn't done much with it apart from the bottom threshold

:47:46.:47:48.

which they have left to take everybody who pays income tax out of

:47:49.:47:52.

taxation. But for viewers at home I think there is a clear message in

:47:53.:47:55.

this election and that is Labour and Lib Dems say they will put up taxes,

:47:56.:48:02.

they want the SNP to do the same... But if George Osborne is going to be

:48:03.:48:07.

the threshold of 50,000, I don't see where you're 30p comes in. Let us

:48:08.:48:12.

have a look at how we do the Budget. But she would have to be earning

:48:13.:48:16.

more than 50,000, so a tax break for people learn about or more? There

:48:17.:48:20.

was a recommendation to look at a ban between 20 and 40... But if the

:48:21.:48:26.

band is 50,000, if that is they start, it would only be people

:48:27.:48:31.

learning over that who would benefit from the 30p rate. That is look at

:48:32.:48:37.

how we the policies and ideas. But that is a matter of simple logic.

:48:38.:48:41.

Anyway, you said you want people to vote for you in the election... I

:48:42.:48:46.

think those parties say that! You are saying it very strongly cuts

:48:47.:48:51.

apparently the ballot paper also Ruth Davidson for a stronger

:48:52.:48:54.

opposition. Wyatt Ruth Davidson rather than the Scottish

:48:55.:48:58.

Conservatives? Well, the designation is rock to ballot papers, you have

:48:59.:49:03.

your candidate ballot paper and your party ballot paper. The name of your

:49:04.:49:08.

party must be at the top of that and then you get a number of words you

:49:09.:49:12.

can say underneath. So for example, the SNMP... But we want to know why

:49:13.:49:20.

it is it Ruth Davidson? Because, we expect to do a job for you. We are

:49:21.:49:24.

seeing clearly to people if you vote for us we will do a specific job...

:49:25.:49:28.

But implication is that you think you are more popular than your

:49:29.:49:32.

party. Well, the party name is at the top, and we know the SNP have

:49:33.:49:36.

registered for different dosing nations all of which are Nicola's

:49:37.:49:41.

name in it. They are clearly wanting to make it presidential style. I am

:49:42.:49:44.

saying not only will our party stand up against a second referendum and

:49:45.:49:49.

stand up to protect your paycheque and stand up to put the Scottish

:49:50.:49:52.

Government under pressure, but I will go toe to toe with Nicola

:49:53.:49:55.

Sturgeon and beyond voice in Scottish Parliament. There's been

:49:56.:49:58.

all sorts of talk about the Tories becoming the main opposition party

:49:59.:50:04.

in Scotland, it was echoed by David Cameron on Friday. Is that what you

:50:05.:50:05.

want? Actually what I want is to become

:50:06.:50:16.

First Minister. In the real world is that what you want? What we want to

:50:17.:50:20.

do is make sure there is a Scottish Government... But can you be in

:50:21.:50:26.

opposition? It is entirely up to the voters, that is not for you to

:50:27.:50:31.

decide on the back of the people out here. I think we will agree we are

:50:32.:50:35.

headed for our best ever result in the Scottish parliament, more seats

:50:36.:50:39.

than ever before. I think we can all agree the Labour Party is about to

:50:40.:50:42.

have its worst ever result. We can overtake them if the people of

:50:43.:50:48.

Scotland wish it and vote for an absolutely. We will take it as read

:50:49.:50:51.

you only get the number of votes people actually cast. What I am

:50:52.:50:57.

asking you as leader of the Scottish Tories, do you realistically think

:50:58.:51:01.

you can overtake the Labour Party in this election? I think we can, that

:51:02.:51:06.

is what we are working towards. Might real ambition is for the

:51:07.:51:09.

Scottish Conservatives to be in government in Scotland. The opinion

:51:10.:51:13.

polls show you quite a long way from this. The opinion polls showed David

:51:14.:51:17.

polls show you quite a long way from Cameron could never get a majority,

:51:18.:51:21.

it is amazing how voters get the last word in these things. I find

:51:22.:51:28.

your point about the polls but you are kind of hanging you hat on this

:51:29.:51:30.

idea of becoming the main opposition are kind of hanging you hat on this

:51:31.:51:32.

party when that is what evidence that you can. We are going to have

:51:33.:51:41.

the best election. I have told my activists, my candidates, my staff,

:51:42.:51:45.

I want us to have the best election we have ever had, more votes, more

:51:46.:51:52.

seats than ever. If you don't become the second party, if you don't

:51:53.:51:54.

seats than ever. If you don't become overtake Labour and the polls at the

:51:55.:51:58.

moment are indicating you want, does that leave you exposed? I don't

:51:59.:52:00.

moment are indicating you want, does think anyone has ever been upgrading

:52:01.:52:05.

politics with showing ambition for the party. Many people have been

:52:06.:52:12.

upgraded from politics for showing promises and not keeping them. Would

:52:13.:52:19.

you stay on? We will hold the government to account. I don't think

:52:20.:52:23.

anyone in the would see the Labour Party has landed a glove on the SNP

:52:24.:52:27.

in recent years. Something in Scotland needs to change. If the

:52:28.:52:33.

voters don't change they should consider changing the opposition.

:52:34.:52:38.

You fell at the general election last year. If you do not become the

:52:39.:52:43.

main opposition party will you stay on? Absolutely, I am the reader of

:52:44.:52:48.

this party until they decide not to have me. There is a mechanism to get

:52:49.:52:52.

rid of leaders and we have never had a problem with that in the past. We

:52:53.:52:54.

rid of leaders and we have never had have a united team going into this

:52:55.:52:58.

opposition election with our tails up. We are on course to hit it and

:52:59.:53:03.

have a view job to do in Parliament to hold the SNP to account. You have

:53:04.:53:08.

become quite popular in the Conservative Party, I don't want to

:53:09.:53:13.

flatter you too much, not just here but in England, would you ever

:53:14.:53:15.

considered giving up your position and going and fighting a seat in

:53:16.:53:20.

England for the Conservatives? Absolutely not, I have lived and

:53:21.:53:24.

worked in Scotland all my life. I will fight seats in Scotland in any

:53:25.:53:29.

kind of election. I will never go to England for a seat not least because

:53:30.:53:33.

my partner has no wish to live in England and I have no wish to live

:53:34.:53:38.

in England, I want to stay living and working in Scotland, it is my

:53:39.:53:40.

in England, I want to stay living home. I am disappointed. I will tell

:53:41.:53:46.

you why. I am disappointed because I was going to ask you to do a David

:53:47.:53:51.

Cameron and practice an English accent. You can still do it if you

:53:52.:53:54.

like. I am better at American accents than English ones but I

:53:55.:53:58.

would do my best reviewed. We will leave that well alone.

:53:59.:54:01.

Last October, Justin Trudeau's Liberal party came from third place

:54:02.:54:03.

to secure a landslide win in the Canadian elections.

:54:04.:54:05.

Scottish Labour thinks it's got something to learn from that

:54:06.:54:07.

experience and this week the Shadow Scottish Secretary Ian Murray

:54:08.:54:10.

is visiting Quebec, Ottawa and Montreal to find out how

:54:11.:54:13.

He's able to join us now via the wonder of the internet.

:54:14.:54:22.

I better say can you hear me, Ian Murray? I can hear you perfectly,

:54:23.:54:29.

I better say can you hear me, Ian good morning. You find a party which

:54:30.:54:33.

has come third place in an election which is where Ruth Davidson has

:54:34.:54:37.

just been saying she wants to picture in the Scottish elections in

:54:38.:54:42.

which she has come back to win. As ugly that is the main reason for you

:54:43.:54:45.

been there? I am here for two reasons. The first is the Scotland

:54:46.:54:50.

Bill and fiscal framework are now almost through the Parliamentary

:54:51.:54:55.

process which makes Scotland one of the most powerful devolved

:54:56.:54:57.

parliaments in the world. One of these and I knew this to see how we

:54:58.:55:03.

can eat demolition work better for Scotland. That is incredibly

:55:04.:55:07.

important and you have seen the provincial governments and national

:55:08.:55:10.

government here in Canada or having to work with federal government much

:55:11.:55:13.

more efficiently because no longer can buy: the Scottish Government

:55:14.:55:17.

work in the way they have in doing over many years. In your

:55:18.:55:20.

introduction it said it is to look at the Liberal party and what they

:55:21.:55:23.

did to win the election and what they did do is offer a real change

:55:24.:55:27.

and I think what you have just seen from Ruth Davidson and the Scottish

:55:28.:55:32.

Government is all these wonderful new hours are coming to Scotland and

:55:33.:55:35.

they want the status quo collection by not using them. We want real

:55:36.:55:39.

change now and we are offering that new change to Scotland and that is

:55:40.:55:43.

very much what the Liberal party did here in Canada last year in a probe.

:55:44.:55:48.

It has been a long way back for the Liberals yet have two be said. The

:55:49.:55:54.

May election in Scotland is a bit short-term view, is one of the

:55:55.:55:58.

election lessons you are burning in Canada is you have truly down

:55:59.:56:01.

benchmarks which might not benefit you immediately but perhaps will the

:56:02.:56:06.

medium term? This is not a new process. We had a dreadful election

:56:07.:56:10.

back in May last year when we lost all but one of our Labour MPs in

:56:11.:56:14.

Scotland. This is an ongoing process and it is quite right to look at

:56:15.:56:18.

what people are wanting in Scotland, it is quite right to put forward a

:56:19.:56:22.

very positive policy platform and that is what Justin Trudeau did here

:56:23.:56:27.

in Canada. He said to the needy and people no longer can we stick with

:56:28.:56:30.

the status quo. We have the Conservatives in Scotland say we can

:56:31.:56:36.

do nothing with the new powers and the Scottish Labour Party are

:56:37.:56:38.

offering that real change, offering the Scottish Labour Party are

:56:39.:56:41.

that real change now and it will be up to the voters to decide if we

:56:42.:56:46.

want a change. These powers are substantial, it transforms the

:56:47.:56:49.

Scottish Parliament very much, as powerful as the provinces here in

:56:50.:56:54.

Canada and we should be embracing that change, embracing those powers

:56:55.:56:58.

and doing everything we possibly can to transform the lives of ordinary

:56:59.:57:03.

Scots. Apart from the lesson not being positive, you could have

:57:04.:57:06.

speared the money for the flight because you could have learned that

:57:07.:57:09.

year, is there anything the Liberals did in terms of specific policy that

:57:10.:57:15.

won the people of Canada around and indeed the people of Cuba get around

:57:16.:57:19.

and that you could imitate here? Daesh WebEx. Let me give you one of

:57:20.:57:25.

those differences happening at the moment. Heavier Dugdale said when

:57:26.:57:30.

given the choices of using the powers of the Scottish parliament

:57:31.:57:33.

she will use those powers by increasing the income tax rate high

:57:34.:57:38.

1p by being able to put that straight into local authority

:57:39.:57:42.

education. That is a great difference from the Conservatives

:57:43.:57:45.

who have decided to do nothing with these powers after negotiating them

:57:46.:57:49.

time and and the SNP URL government have decided to new nothing about

:57:50.:57:56.

them. In Canada last Probert was distinct policy changes were given

:57:57.:57:58.

as well and that is one example where the busy real clear blue water

:57:59.:58:03.

between the Scottish Labour Party going into this election and the

:58:04.:58:06.

other parties and what they are offering. I presume something else

:58:07.:58:10.

you're looking at an queue back the have come from the situation where

:58:11.:58:17.

one party came closer to winning and referendum than the SNP did in

:58:18.:58:21.

Scotland but the party is no longer in power and in fact is not that

:58:22.:58:27.

influential at the moment incubate. Do you see any lessons for Labour as

:58:28.:58:34.

for what has happened to that party in Canada? I did not catch all of

:58:35.:58:41.

your question and the line drop out ever so slightly but what I do not

:58:42.:58:46.

want to do is look at this place so closely as to what is happening in

:58:47.:58:50.

Scotland. The reason we have come to this place is because they have had

:58:51.:58:54.

the referendum on independence. We have plenty to learn from what

:58:55.:59:01.

happened here in Quebec but what they have done and the message has

:59:02.:59:04.

been very clear to me over the last few days when I have been here in

:59:05.:59:10.

Quebec is the need to move on to the lashes of real people's lives which

:59:11.:59:16.

is using powers we have got. It is about jobs, growth, education and

:59:17.:59:20.

public services. We had to meet them from talking about the constitution

:59:21.:59:24.

to talking about how we use the substantial powers in the Scottish

:59:25.:59:27.

Parliament to make the lives of people better and that is the key

:59:28.:59:32.

message of what we learned in Quebec last week. You have talked about

:59:33.:59:38.

intergovernmental relations the difference now between Quebec and

:59:39.:59:44.

Canada is because the Liberals are in power in both it is presumably a

:59:45.:59:48.

fairly smooth relationship and that is not necessarily the case here. We

:59:49.:59:54.

have to build some of those infrastructure issues together. The

:59:55.:59:58.

Smith agreement said quite clearly the group that need to talk about

:59:59.:00:04.

finance should be either up, we need independent scrutiny of the UK

:00:05.:00:07.

finances through the office of argued responsibility which is what

:00:08.:00:12.

we get and we need a Scottish office budget responsibility and we need an

:00:13.:00:16.

assessment of the Scottish economy, what is happening with Scottish

:00:17.:00:18.

taxes and growth. These what is happening with Scottish

:00:19.:00:22.

intergovernmental relations are what is happening with Scottish

:00:23.:00:26.

important because of issues around welfare, tax work in the context of

:00:27.:00:30.

a very strong parliament within the United Kingdom we need governments

:00:31.:00:33.

to work together and that is why we need some institutional

:00:34.:00:36.

infrastructure in place to be able to do that to make sure they can

:00:37.:00:40.

work together to make these powers work otherwise it will be a stand of

:00:41.:00:44.

light we have seen in the fiscal framework where both parties where

:00:45.:00:48.

blaming each other for something that did not exist and ultimately

:00:49.:00:52.

they came to a deal at the 11th hour. It is important to make sure

:00:53.:00:56.

these infrastructures are in place for the benefit of Scots, not the

:00:57.:01:00.

government but for the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish people.

:01:01.:01:05.

We will have to leave it the. Thank you very much. You are jumping about

:01:06.:01:10.

a bit and we got some inter-web warnings coming up on the screen but

:01:11.:01:14.

otherwise it seemed to work well. Thank you. Thank you.

:01:15.:01:19.

The Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell continued his series of public

:01:20.:01:21.

He's being joined around the country by experts including the former

:01:22.:01:25.

finance minister of Greece, Yanis Varoufakis, and the journalist

:01:26.:01:27.

This week he shared a stage with the Nobel Prize-winning

:01:28.:01:31.

economist Professor Joseph Stiglitz, who will also advise the party

:01:32.:01:33.

It's a role he's already occupied for the Scottish Government

:01:34.:01:37.

Our Westminster correspondent Nick Eardley went to listen

:01:38.:01:40.

Professor Joseph Stiglitz is one of Labour's new Council of advisers. A

:01:41.:01:50.

team of experts that will help form the parties economic direction. He

:01:51.:02:04.

welcomes the idea that the problems of the 80s have field. It would

:02:05.:02:09.

incentivise people to work harder, to invest more and if we liberalise

:02:10.:02:16.

the economy we would open up the space for people to do more and the

:02:17.:02:22.

combination of liberalisation and accept of eyes Asian over tax breaks

:02:23.:02:30.

would unleash a new economic growth, well, it hasn't turned out that way.

:02:31.:02:35.

We now have a third of a century of this experiment on both sides of the

:02:36.:02:38.

Atlantic so we are not making a judgment on the basis of one or two

:02:39.:02:41.

macro years, we are making a judgment on the basis of a third of

:02:42.:02:48.

a century and what we can say after a third of the century is that it

:02:49.:02:53.

has failed. The bottom 90% of Americans have seen no increase in

:02:54.:02:58.

their income. No significant increases in the income. All the

:02:59.:03:04.

increase has gone to the top 10%. The economists litres work focuses

:03:05.:03:08.

on how to change the economic model, things like taxes and relegation. It

:03:09.:03:13.

is a widening gap between the rich and were. There has been enormous

:03:14.:03:20.

growth in inequality. The reason inequality has risen to the top of

:03:21.:03:23.

the political agenda in the United inequality has risen to the top of

:03:24.:03:27.

States, UK and many other countries is a simple one, a keepsake growing.

:03:28.:03:31.

The professor believes extreme inequality undermines it quality and

:03:32.:03:40.

slows economic growth. One penitential remedy is dependent on

:03:41.:03:43.

access and affordability. I now in the United States very, very clearly

:03:44.:03:50.

that the way we find higher education is a major impediment to

:03:51.:03:55.

equality. That is equality of opportunity. The average student

:03:56.:04:03.

graduating has $25,000 debt. It is not income continuing debt as it is

:04:04.:04:08.

in the UK so it is a real albatross around the neck. He may be a new

:04:09.:04:11.

in the UK so it is a real albatross recruit to the Labour team but the

:04:12.:04:15.

professor has been advising the Scottish Government for years.

:04:16.:04:20.

Record the referendum he observed Scotland was charting a different

:04:21.:04:23.

economic course on the rest of the UK. Does he still think it's heading

:04:24.:04:28.

in the right direction? I have been very pleased with the way they have

:04:29.:04:31.

continued the agenda obviously with more constraints and if they were

:04:32.:04:36.

independent but with the same kind of vision in forming the policies. A

:04:37.:04:46.

blend of growth but with inclusion, inclusive growth. So, one celebrity

:04:47.:04:55.

economist, two macro political parties, as the election approaches

:04:56.:04:59.

the claim to have lesser Stiglitz new economics may be the only thing

:05:00.:05:02.

Labour and the SNP are happy to have in common.

:05:03.:05:08.

Time to review the week and look ahead at what's coming up.

:05:09.:05:11.

I'm joined by Lindsay McIntosh, who is the Scottish political editor

:05:12.:05:14.

for The Times and by Observer columnist, Kevin McKenna.

:05:15.:05:48.

Over the next few months we can demonstrate Scotland can be a better

:05:49.:05:57.

society. We need older Holyrood. We have been shown how we can push the

:05:58.:06:01.

Scottish Government beyond its safe comfort zone and adopt the policy

:06:02.:06:07.

Scotland are really needs. Lindsay, the Greens. There was an expectation

:06:08.:06:11.

that they were going to do tremendously well. Is that still

:06:12.:06:13.

there? They could do pretty well at tremendously well. Is that still

:06:14.:06:17.

this time. If you look at their membership since the referendum when

:06:18.:06:23.

they supported a yes vote in 2014, membership soared, donations soared

:06:24.:06:24.

and they hired more staff and are membership soared, donations soared

:06:25.:06:28.

looking much more like a professional organisation than ever

:06:29.:06:31.

before. I think the picture Patrick Harvie is making it much -- clip is

:06:32.:06:36.

interesting, he's doing a similar thing to what Ruth Davidson was

:06:37.:06:41.

doing girly. He is saying if you vote for us in the regions, we

:06:42.:06:45.

control the SNP Government, which we're pretty sure we will get, more

:06:46.:06:50.

in the direction you want. So on a fracking and land reform, some of

:06:51.:06:55.

you SNP membership is unhappy with that party's position. He is going

:06:56.:06:59.

for the second voters think they will make the SNP more accountable.

:07:00.:07:05.

The danger for the Greens, presumably,, I mean, if we accessed

:07:06.:07:08.

The danger for the Greens, the SNMP can win a lot of

:07:09.:07:11.

constituency seats, the competition for the regional seats will be

:07:12.:07:17.

ferocious. Could the Greens end up being squeezed? That will always be

:07:18.:07:26.

the danger and threat to a party like the Greens. It will be

:07:27.:07:30.

competitors for the second votes this time around. Lindsay made a

:07:31.:07:35.

good point about the increase in sharpness of the green's

:07:36.:07:39.

organisation and the people that they are hiring. One of the people

:07:40.:07:43.

who will be standing is and Wightman, the land reformer. -- Andy

:07:44.:07:51.

Wightman. Previously, I found it difficult to take the Greens

:07:52.:07:55.

seriously. To me, they will either political equivalent of vanity

:07:56.:07:58.

publishing. But when I saw Andy Wightman talking in the week and saw

:07:59.:08:01.

he was standing several months Wightman talking in the week and saw

:08:02.:08:07.

to me, and I think to others on the left, he gave the green is a new

:08:08.:08:10.

credibility and then Patrick Harvie is wise to talk about land reform,

:08:11.:08:16.

because the SNP week there and the vulnerable even among the older

:08:17.:08:25.

members. -- Art weak in that way. As she kept emphasising, it is up to

:08:26.:08:29.

the voters. But it is a slightly high risk strategy isn't it? I think

:08:30.:08:36.

so. She has made two pledges on her expectations and one is to overtake

:08:37.:08:40.

Labour and the other is to return at the highest number of seats the

:08:41.:08:43.

Tories have ever had in Scotland. If I were in her party, I would be

:08:44.:08:48.

concerned she was making a bid for the hostage fortune, because their

:08:49.:08:52.

share dropped at the general election. Although we are seeing

:08:53.:08:57.

them arising in some polls, it is very sporadic, these green shoots. I

:08:58.:09:05.

mean, the last poll had them on 13% and Labour on 21. On the summer they

:09:06.:09:08.

have been neck and neck. Can you see them making a big breakthrough this

:09:09.:09:14.

time? I can not really. I know they are hammering this line about the

:09:15.:09:16.

Conservatives in Scotland in the last readout of the union because

:09:17.:09:20.

Labour and the Lib Dems will be giving their members and their MSP

:09:21.:09:25.

is a free vote if there is another referendum. I think there is only so

:09:26.:09:31.

far you can go with that and I think that will distance them and if she

:09:32.:09:35.

is taking that as the main difference or the main reason why

:09:36.:09:39.

people ought to think of them as a second party, it is not going to

:09:40.:09:43.

work, it is not enough. I think you can see the logic for why Scots

:09:44.:09:46.

would vote for it at the moment given they are the centre-right

:09:47.:09:51.

option and the one and not standing on tax-raising platforms. They have

:09:52.:09:56.

a charismatic, young, feisty leader who can appeal to parts of

:09:57.:10:00.

demographics of Scotland that the young -- Tories in Scotland haven't

:10:01.:10:04.

done in the past. It's a logical argument, but I'm not convinced it

:10:05.:10:09.

will come to fruition in May. On the other hand, on the daylight

:10:10.:10:10.

Leicester City in the Premier other hand, on the daylight

:10:11.:10:13.

League? Leicester will not necessarily be at the top of the

:10:14.:10:16.

Premier League very often, and the teams around them are not likely to

:10:17.:10:20.

be quite as rubbish quite so often. So don't you just throw everything

:10:21.:10:25.

at it? Well, Leicester went five points clear last night after

:10:26.:10:28.

beating Watford. And it is only March and there are only a couple of

:10:29.:10:33.

months left in that. I think that you listen to Ruth talking about

:10:34.:10:37.

spreading the tax base, that makes sense if you are on the right. But

:10:38.:10:42.

she has questions to answer as to why the party a few months ago,

:10:43.:10:47.

needed more taxpayers, why they sat needed more taxpayers, why they sat

:10:48.:10:52.

-- set their face against giving graduates from overseas remain to

:10:53.:10:57.

leave outside the EU with the skills and the possibility of working and

:10:58.:11:03.

contributing. Can we talk about one story in the papers this morning,

:11:04.:11:09.

from the Scotland On Sunday, Independence fears and tax policies

:11:10.:11:14.

hit property investment. This is commercial property. What I found

:11:15.:11:18.

interesting about this is it said there was no evidence that the

:11:19.:11:22.

uncertainty over Scotland's future is having any impact on the economy.

:11:23.:11:26.

This is commercial property people saying no, the market is going up in

:11:27.:11:32.

England and down in Scotland. That may be nothing to do with

:11:33.:11:34.

independence, but they are claiming it is. It was not just the

:11:35.:11:40.

uncertainty of independence, again, it is a favoured refrain of the

:11:41.:11:45.

right and of the business classes, I think they are also flowing into the

:11:46.:11:49.

mix uncertainty over Britain's future in Europe. But Europe or not

:11:50.:11:55.

a slow right the commercial property market is doing better in England

:11:56.:12:00.

and Scotland. It may explain why it said market in Britain is...? I

:12:01.:12:04.

think in Scotland there are different demographics. We don't

:12:05.:12:06.

think in Scotland there are have as many taxpayers or

:12:07.:12:12.

businesses. But Lindsay, that necessarily wouldn't explain... If

:12:13.:12:16.

they are right there is an independent effect, that is slightly

:12:17.:12:19.

disturbing, isn't it? It is, but they are not just talking about

:12:20.:12:23.

independence, but tax policies here and changes to property tax that we

:12:24.:12:28.

have. We know from the residential side of things that property experts

:12:29.:12:32.

have been warning that the top end of the market is not shifting and

:12:33.:12:38.

there is this trickle down negative effect and that is, combines with

:12:39.:12:40.

the constitutional issue is what is being talked about in that piece.

:12:41.:12:47.

You are becoming a grumpy old man, an shoe? In fact, you are supposed

:12:48.:12:52.

to have taken a cocktail of, what was, Monster? What is that, energy

:12:53.:13:01.

joint? I don't know! It was another of these drinks that... The point is

:13:02.:13:08.

you fed up of the Scottish Government trying to ban things. It

:13:09.:13:12.

is not just the Government, but the political classes want to ban things

:13:13.:13:16.

form the working classes. Give them more housing, pay them more money,

:13:17.:13:19.

give them jobs and stop fiddling with what they eat and drink. The

:13:20.:13:25.

latest was rugby tackling in school. Yes, doctors last week said they

:13:26.:13:30.

wanted to ban all tackling in school rugby. Some may say there was a

:13:31.:13:35.

successful pilot scheme 20 years ago in the senior team banning tackling.

:13:36.:13:42.

Are you as grumpy at as he is? I'm certainly not on Monster and

:13:43.:13:46.

Buckfast! He is right that things need to be done at local community

:13:47.:13:51.

level... That is all from us this week. I will be back next week,

:13:52.:13:53.

goodbye.

:13:54.:13:58.

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