24/04/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


24/04/2016

With Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer. Guests include Dominic Raab MP, Lucy Powell MP and Diane James MEP. On the political panel are Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Nick Watt.


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Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland: With two weeks

:01:18.:01:19.

to go to the election, we complete our series

:01:20.:01:21.

of party leader interviews with Labour's Kezia Dugdale

:01:22.:01:23.

And with me for the duration, three journalists whom no-one puts

:01:24.:01:36.

at the back of the queue - or even the line.

:01:37.:01:39.

Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn -

:01:40.:01:41.

they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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So, Air Force One left Stanstead Airport a few hours ago

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and the President is now in Hanover, Germany.

:01:48.:01:51.

But the reverberations of Mr Obama's intervention in the EU referendum

:01:52.:01:54.

On Friday, the President told a press conference

:01:55.:01:59.

the EU, it would be at the back of the queue when it comes to doing

:02:00.:02:06.

a free trade deal with the US - comments he was asked about in a BBC

:02:07.:02:09.

The UK would not be able to negotiate something with the United

:02:10.:02:13.

We wouldn't abandon our efforts to negotiate a trade deal with our

:02:14.:02:20.

largest trading partner, the European market, but rather,

:02:21.:02:29.

it could be five years from now, ten years

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from now, before we were able to actually get something done.

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And I'm joined now by the Justice Minister and Leave

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Welcome to the programme. Mr Obama, 5-10 years for a free-trade deal

:02:41.:02:53.

with the UK under the EU. He's right, isn't he? What was most

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interesting this morning was how far he has backtracked since Friday

:02:58.:03:01.

evening. As you said, we were told we would be sent to the back of the

:03:02.:03:05.

queue if we didn't take his advice and stay in the EU. Now, he has said

:03:06.:03:10.

that if Britain was independent from the EU, we could not expect to do a

:03:11.:03:17.

free-trade deal quicker than with the EU. No one is really expecting

:03:18.:03:22.

that, so I think the reality is that these things can take time. It has

:03:23.:03:28.

taken almost 40 years even to get to this stage with a stalled EU- US

:03:29.:03:35.

deal. I think we would be better placed, and we are not prejudiced by

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being outside the EU in doing that. The president has made it clear that

:03:40.:03:45.

American power will do regional deals. That is why he has put so

:03:46.:03:49.

much energy into a specific deal with the 11 countries. He wants to

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do and EU deal involving all the EU members. The only started in 2013,

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they haven't been at it for 40 years. We have been talking about it

:04:01.:04:04.

for 40 years. That is a different matter. The negotiations started in

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2013. We would be a long way behind these two megadeal. When he said we

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were at the back of the queue, I was a bit startled, so I went and

:04:14.:04:20.

checked. The US has no other bilateral negotiations for a freight

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train with any other country than the EU. When you look at the 23

:04:23.:04:30.

trade deals it has, none of them are worth an economy bigger than

:04:31.:04:34.

Britain. Let's remember that if America signed a trade deal with us,

:04:35.:04:37.

it would be the equivalent of the North American trade deal because...

:04:38.:04:42.

I think we have strong mutual interest in doing it. America had a

:04:43.:04:47.

number of bilateral free trade talks going on with about 15 different

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countries. It essentially froze them because it wants to do regional

:04:56.:04:59.

deals - why would it reopen at Mr Ross? In the last 25 years, it has

:05:00.:05:04.

done a string of bilateral and regional negotiations, given the

:05:05.:05:09.

collapse of WTO talks, the Pacific deal was done. The EU one is stuck

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in the mud. If Britain came out of the EU, saying, we are not shackled

:05:15.:05:19.

by the special interests of film-makers who don't want American

:05:20.:05:22.

box sets polluting French culture, we want insist on the labelling

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requirements unfettered cheese that the Greeks do. And we won't have a

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dispute about the settlement mechanism that the Europeans are

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concerned about and people are concerned about in this country. It

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is important to understand why the Americans insist on that, because

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they don't trust the court systems in many European countries will stop

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American firms trust British courts to resolve commercial this beautiful

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stop all of these problems will be swept away, and I think we would be

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well placed. If we're done with the EU and we not a member, the EU will

:05:57.:06:00.

have free trade with United States and we don't know when we will have

:06:01.:06:05.

it. It could give a huge advantage to the French, Germans, Italians and

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Spanish. We know that the White House briefs out... The White House

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regularly briefed it. If you look at White House commentary, let me just

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put this to you - if America was my priority is the EU deal, the best

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way of ramping up its negotiations leveraged would be to come to a

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relatively quick deal with Britain. That would put the pressure on. In

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trade negotiations, America had a history of doing that. Do you accept

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that whatever our relationship with the EU, if we read, we can have no

:06:46.:06:50.

full access to the single market unless we agree to free movement of

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people? It depends what you mean by full access to the single market. I

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think we would not see any trade barriers go up because we are the

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fifth biggest economy in the world, but it means we can have proper

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control of our borders and we will not be bound by the stifling

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regulation that gives us a competitive disadvantage. It is

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important for small businesses here. You still don't know if we would

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have access to the single market. You can't tell as that. Everyone who

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does who is not a member of the EU has had to agree to free movement.

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It is a strawman to say, I can't tell you what the deal looks like

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until we have had the referendum. I can tell you this: Look at the

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options being put at their - Swiss, Norwegian, Turkish. I think because

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Britain's economy is bigger than all of those combined, and because

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French farmers and German car manufacturers sell as ?60 billion

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more each year than we sell them, we are very well placed and mutual

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self-interest suggests we would cut a good deal.

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How would we have more control over borders if we left? We would have

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control over who could come to work here, I understand that, if we want

:08:11.:08:13.

in the EU any more, provided we weren't part of the single market,

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but how would we be able to stop people coming here? Do you think if

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we leave the EU that, if you're French or German or Italian, you

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would need a Visa? There are two issues: The numbers, and I think

:08:29.:08:32.

that as the Home Secretary conceded, we cannot control the numbers

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because of free movement if we are in the EU, and that makes life

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harder. The second question is, checks at the border, preventative

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ones. Under UK law with non-EU countries, we can stop someone

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coming in because it is not conducive to the public good. With

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the EU, we can only deny entry if there is a serious, credible and

:08:54.:08:59.

present threat. Which we do. As a result, since 2010, 6000 people have

:09:00.:09:04.

been turned back from the EU. If you compare that with people from out

:09:05.:09:10.

with the EU, we have registered to 60 7000. That shows the stronger

:09:11.:09:18.

checks. I understand, but my question is, outside the EU, we

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would not insist on visas for the Germans, French and so on? We would

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have to look at that as part of the negotiations. At the moment, the

:09:29.:09:34.

Obama Administration is looking at new Visa requirement and screening

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from Germany, Belgium, Greece, France because of the recent

:09:40.:09:43.

terrorist attacks. I think we should at least have the power and control

:09:44.:09:47.

to do that to keep Britain safe. Then we would need a Visa to go to

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France and Germany. A final question: Why do you not want the

:09:53.:09:57.

leader of the National front in France, Marine Le Pen, to come here?

:09:58.:10:00.

She's one of your biggest supporters. Her views are racist and

:10:01.:10:05.

I don't share her values. I think our party is deeply offensive. But

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she is on your site. All the more reason why I wouldn't like to see

:10:11.:10:15.

her come. So we do have control over our borders of the Home Secretary

:10:16.:10:20.

can stop coming? People from outside the EU, rappers like snoop doggy

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dog, have been barred entry because they have a offensive views. If the

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Home Secretary checks with officials, we probably cannot be

:10:29.:10:34.

nigh Marine Le Pen entry. It is another demonstration of the things

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we can't do because we don't have the proper controls of our borders.

:10:38.:10:39.

Thank you. Jeremy Corbyn will get his first big

:10:40.:10:42.

electoral test in just under two weeks' time, when voters go

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to the polls in local Opposition parties usually do

:10:46.:10:47.

well in these contests, even when they've just

:10:48.:10:50.

lost a general election. But with analysts predicting

:10:51.:10:52.

that the party could actually lose councillors, party

:10:53.:10:54.

strategists are There's a simple principle

:10:55.:10:55.

in British politics - if you want to win elections, you need to win

:10:56.:11:03.

seats of every shape and size. When in government, parties tend

:11:04.:11:08.

to lose council seats. In opposition,

:11:09.:11:12.

they tend to win them. Even Michael Foot, who went

:11:13.:11:16.

on to lead Labour to its biggest general election defeat

:11:17.:11:19.

ever, did pretty well to start with. In his first electoral test,

:11:20.:11:25.

in 1981, the party took When Neil Kinnock became leader,

:11:26.:11:27.

he also managed a more And then Ed Miliband,

:11:28.:11:33.

he picked up 857 seats. Since local government was invented

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in its modern form in 1974,

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there have been only two years - 1982 and 1985 - when the opposition

:11:49.:11:52.

party has actually lost seats in a local

:11:53.:11:55.

election if it is not So far, so historically positive for

:11:56.:11:58.

Jeremy Corbyn. The problem is, experts in the field

:11:59.:12:04.

reckon Labour could lose 150 seats in these English

:12:05.:12:09.

council elections. Even the party machine has been

:12:10.:12:14.

managing expectations. You simply can't

:12:15.:12:18.

explain away any kind of net loss of seats

:12:19.:12:20.

in these elections. After all, a new leader

:12:21.:12:23.

in the middle of his honeymoon period following on from

:12:24.:12:29.

a disastrous mega-galactic shambles of a budget failure shouldn't expect

:12:30.:12:33.

to see anything other than dramatic gains in the local

:12:34.:12:36.

elections that follow. Anything else,

:12:37.:12:40.

historically speaking, is It's an argument put forward by some

:12:41.:12:41.

of his MPs. I'm not going to put

:12:42.:12:49.

a specific number on it, but 300-400 seats would be a good

:12:50.:12:51.

step in the We have to be ambitious,

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because we are the Labour Party, and we are a

:12:55.:13:00.

party of government. We exist in order to be

:13:01.:13:03.

in Government and make a difference Southampton, that is where

:13:04.:13:05.

Ed Miliband has been... The last time this batch of council

:13:06.:13:10.

seats were contested, Labour under Southampton was one of a number

:13:11.:13:13.

of areas where Labour failed to capitalise in the general election,

:13:14.:13:23.

losing a Parliamentary If Jeremy Corbyn wants to be

:13:24.:13:25.

Prime Minister in 2020, he will be expected to make inroads now in many

:13:26.:13:30.

of the English council areas, and I think that all

:13:31.:13:33.

leaders are judged by We've got from now until

:13:34.:13:40.

the 5th of May to deliver positive and encouraging

:13:41.:13:44.

results for Labour. It's always hard to compare

:13:45.:13:48.

historic elections. There are always different

:13:49.:13:49.

political contexts, varying numbers of seats up grabs,

:13:50.:13:53.

but rightly or wrongly, several Labour MPs I've spoken

:13:54.:13:57.

to will do just that, conscious that Jeremy Corbyn

:13:58.:13:59.

could make history for the And we're joined now

:14:00.:14:02.

from Salford by the Shadow Education Secretary,

:14:03.:14:09.

Lucy Powell. Welcome to the programme, Lucy

:14:10.:14:19.

Powell. Your Labour MP Carly, Stephen Kinnock, says you should be

:14:20.:14:22.

gaining an extra 300-400 council seat in England - does that seem

:14:23.:14:28.

right? I won't get into the predictions game. Like Stephen, like

:14:29.:14:33.

Jeremy and the rest of the Shadow Cabinet, I am optimistic about these

:14:34.:14:38.

elections. We are a political party and always looking to make gains and

:14:39.:14:44.

progress at every electoral test. These elections are no different. I

:14:45.:14:48.

won't get into the predictions business. Hold on. What about the

:14:49.:14:55.

principle that new opposition leaders always do pretty well in

:14:56.:14:59.

their first electoral test? I was looking at the record - Ed Miliband,

:15:00.:15:07.

Tony Blair, Neil Kinnock, even Michael Foot, they all made gains.

:15:08.:15:11.

We must expect Jeremy Corbyn to do the same, surely?

:15:12.:15:16.

I have been hoping we will make progress. Do you think you will make

:15:17.:15:26.

gains? We are looking at winning in London for the first time since

:15:27.:15:30.

2004, we are looking to make progress in the local elections, we

:15:31.:15:35.

are looking to stay in power in Wales. Obviously in Scotland things

:15:36.:15:40.

are difficult there and they are long-term legacy issues for the

:15:41.:15:43.

Labour Party to deal with in Scotland but you do have to set it

:15:44.:15:47.

into context. It has been an incredibly tough year for the Labour

:15:48.:15:52.

Party, we suffered a crushing election defeat. That was not even a

:15:53.:15:57.

year ago, which we weren't expecting and everybody else wasn't expecting

:15:58.:16:03.

either. We had a long, drawn-out leadership contest. We have a new

:16:04.:16:08.

leader in Jeremy Corbyn and it takes time for everybody to adjust to

:16:09.:16:13.

that. But I think we have had a very positive few weeks where we have

:16:14.:16:18.

been on the front foot, we have been effective opposition, with issues

:16:19.:16:24.

like the Budget... We haven't got too much time. Let me put it in

:16:25.:16:30.

context. The Tories have divided and they are in disarray, last month

:16:31.:16:35.

brought yet another omnishambles Budget. Why would you not be poised

:16:36.:16:44.

for big gains? I am very hopeful we will get big gains. London will be a

:16:45.:16:57.

big gain, we haven't won since 2004. What I'm interested in is how we on

:16:58.:17:01.

the right track for winning in 2020, and that is a really tough job. I

:17:02.:17:05.

don't think anyone underestimates the challenge we face as a political

:17:06.:17:11.

party. Let me see if I can pin you down. Maybe one of the reasons it is

:17:12.:17:15.

not an easy job is that you may not be in tune with the public mood.

:17:16.:17:24.

This chart shows they regularly rate immigration one of their number one

:17:25.:17:28.

concern is, ahead of the NHS and the economy, this is recent poll. Most

:17:29.:17:34.

are not against immigration but they think the influx is too high. How

:17:35.:17:38.

does that square with Jeremy Corbyn's view that we have not let

:17:39.:17:43.

too many in? All of these issues we have got to think deeply about and

:17:44.:17:49.

there is an urgency to that. Immigration, welfare, the economy,

:17:50.:17:52.

these were all issues at the last election but that was only a few

:17:53.:17:57.

months ago. If we knew the answer is, if we knew how we would make

:17:58.:18:03.

labour relevant again, the Labour values I care about, how we will

:18:04.:18:07.

make them relevant in the modern world, if I had those answers we

:18:08.:18:10.

wouldn't be sitting here now because we would be in Government. Do you

:18:11.:18:17.

agree with Jeremy Corbyn... We have got to spend time, doing the

:18:18.:18:24.

difficult job of understanding how the Labour Party can be relevant in

:18:25.:18:29.

the modern world, and that includes issues... If you let me come back to

:18:30.:18:36.

immigration and get a specific answer out of you. Do you agree with

:18:37.:18:40.

Jeremy Corbyn that in recent years we have not let too many in? I don't

:18:41.:18:46.

want to get into a numbers game about immigration. I know from all

:18:47.:18:51.

the work I do on the doorstep, immigration is a massive issue and

:18:52.:18:54.

people have real concerns about the impact that immigration has on some

:18:55.:19:02.

of our communities. As the Labour Party, we have to address those.

:19:03.:19:06.

That's why I thought we were right at the last election to have a

:19:07.:19:11.

policy around the emergency rate for example on benefits for EU migrants,

:19:12.:19:16.

a policy the Government have adopted, but I don't think simple

:19:17.:19:22.

retail policy offers are what Labour's challenge is right now. Our

:19:23.:19:28.

challenge is over the next few years what is our relevant values that we

:19:29.:19:33.

can offer to the public that will help us win the election. Let me

:19:34.:19:42.

come onto education. You asked if you planned to bring academies under

:19:43.:19:48.

local authority control and you said no, by 2020 almost every secondary

:19:49.:19:59.

school will be a free School or an Academy, do you stand by that? Only

:20:00.:20:05.

17% of primary schools are academies. You said nearly every

:20:06.:20:11.

secondary, do you stand by that? I don't know about primary schools,

:20:12.:20:16.

let's see what happens over the next few weeks because the Government's

:20:17.:20:20.

attempt to force all schools against their wishes to become an Academy is

:20:21.:20:25.

on the rocks. They put the brakes on some schools feeling they have no

:20:26.:20:27.

option but to become academies, which is what many schools felt over

:20:28.:20:36.

the last few years. And I understand the policy of making every school

:20:37.:20:40.

and Academy is difficult, I take your point, but you said every

:20:41.:20:45.

secondary school and most primaries will be free schools or an Academy.

:20:46.:20:49.

It is not that different from where the Government wants to end up, is

:20:50.:20:56.

it? You are taking my comments out of context. I was talking about

:20:57.:21:01.

Labour's policy at the next election in that circumstance, and my point

:21:02.:21:06.

is that we have got to look anew at what is the accountability framework

:21:07.:21:10.

for all schools? How do we make sure there are sufficient places in our

:21:11.:21:14.

schools, that we have raising standards in our schools, we have

:21:15.:21:17.

sufficient school improvement support for our schools, and we have

:21:18.:21:22.

proper accountability of some of these Academy chains of which we are

:21:23.:21:25.

seeing many more problems arising with their accountability. That is

:21:26.:21:31.

what I will be looking at. In the short term, I will be fighting tooth

:21:32.:21:37.

and nail the Government's plans to force good and outstanding schools

:21:38.:21:40.

against their wishes to become academies. Jeremy Corbyn has

:21:41.:21:52.

described academise a share -- described... Jeremy said lots of

:21:53.:22:00.

things about the forced programme. Is it asset stripping or not? In

:22:01.:22:07.

some cases it can be. The key question is does it meet the test of

:22:08.:22:12.

school improvement? There is mixed evidence of whether it leads to

:22:13.:22:16.

school improvement, as the education select committee have found. The

:22:17.:22:23.

second question is does it give schools freedom and autonomy? How

:22:24.:22:26.

can that be the case if you are forcing a school against its wish to

:22:27.:22:31.

be an Academy. That is not real autonomy. And the first test is

:22:32.:22:37.

around accountability and there are some very real issues there. Some

:22:38.:22:47.

might call that asset stripping. If our state system is being asset

:22:48.:22:51.

stripped as your leader claims, that would be really serious so is he

:22:52.:22:57.

right or wrong? There have been examples of financial mismanagement

:22:58.:23:02.

in some Academy chains, we have seen those recently where directors have

:23:03.:23:04.

been paying themselves double money by setting up arms length

:23:05.:23:11.

organisations that they are also paying themselves from so there are

:23:12.:23:16.

issues of financial probity which is why both Jeremy and I have been

:23:17.:23:21.

arguing that there needs to be a much more robust financial

:23:22.:23:26.

accountability structure. He seems to be against academies altogether.

:23:27.:23:34.

We have got exactly the same view about this, Jeremy and I have worked

:23:35.:23:39.

closely on these issues and that is that there are some excellent

:23:40.:23:44.

Academy schools, there are also some excellent community schools. This

:23:45.:23:48.

tired argument of pitting one school type against another is frankly

:23:49.:23:53.

over. What we have got to be addressing is ensuring we have good

:23:54.:23:56.

quality teachers and head teachers in all of our schools, something the

:23:57.:24:01.

Government is failing to do. We've got to make sure schools have

:24:02.:24:04.

adequate resources, and they are facing real terms cuts to their

:24:05.:24:13.

budgets, and make sure we have enough places for all of our

:24:14.:24:17.

children. There is a crisis in school places and teacher shortages.

:24:18.:24:23.

Very interesting ground which you have gone over before. I want to

:24:24.:24:28.

show you an advert gone up for a new media spokesperson for Jeremy

:24:29.:24:35.

Corbyn. There is a fixed term contract for Jeremy Corbyn, leader

:24:36.:24:41.

of the Labour Party, running from December 2016 or when he ceases to

:24:42.:24:45.

be leader, whichever is sooner. Which do you think will be sooner? I

:24:46.:24:51.

haven't seen the advert but Jeremy has only been a leader for a few

:24:52.:24:56.

months. OK, you're not going to tell me which would be sooner? We are

:24:57.:25:02.

supporting him in his job and I'm not going to comment on that. Very

:25:03.:25:04.

well. Thank you very much. The party views on Europe

:25:05.:25:07.

and immigration are well-known, but voters may not know

:25:08.:25:11.

what Nigel Farage's Purple Army thinks about issues

:25:12.:25:14.

like recycling and council tax. Ukip, which had never held more

:25:15.:25:16.

than a handful of local election seats before,

:25:17.:25:19.

achieved its first major breakthrough in 2013,

:25:20.:25:21.

when they gained 139 seats. The following year they increased

:25:22.:25:27.

their total by another 161 seats, performing particularly well

:25:28.:25:31.

in parts of Essex. While in 2015, on the same day

:25:32.:25:35.

as the general election, In that set of elections,

:25:36.:25:37.

Ukip won control of Thanet Council in Kent, the first time the party

:25:38.:25:46.

took control of a local council, But within six months they had

:25:47.:25:49.

lost overall control, after five councillors left Ukip,

:25:50.:25:54.

saying they were unhappy with the council's lack of action

:25:55.:25:58.

on a manifesto pledge to reopen So, 2016 is the last year

:25:59.:26:01.

in the four-yearly cycle Will they be able to

:26:02.:26:07.

maintain the momentum? We're joined now by the party's

:26:08.:26:16.

deputy chairman, Diane James. Welcome to the programme. You have

:26:17.:26:25.

got your referendum running strongly in the news, immigration is a huge

:26:26.:26:32.

issue as well. What would be a good result for Ukip in these local

:26:33.:26:36.

elections? Certainly to retain the 20 seat we will be defending this

:26:37.:26:40.

time, but also building on that. We are fielding 1400 candidates out of

:26:41.:26:48.

the 2700 that will be available across the country. We are also

:26:49.:26:52.

fielding candidates in the big Assembly elections - Stormont,

:26:53.:26:57.

Holyrood... And the police crime Commissioner. Are you looking to

:26:58.:27:05.

gain? Of course, we wouldn't be doing anything otherwise. Populist

:27:06.:27:12.

and anti-EU parties are gaining ground right across Europe so

:27:13.:29:09.

This morning, you just reeled off a host of really good examples and I

:29:10.:29:15.

will not take those away from you but have you raise a single one of

:29:16.:29:19.

the councillors across the country who have had to stand down or been

:29:20.:29:24.

suspended for actually quite serious issues? We got individuals decide

:29:25.:29:32.

unilaterally they want to walk away from the Ukip banner. But these

:29:33.:29:35.

individuals who committed real issues and have been suspended or up

:29:36.:29:39.

had to stand out, that is a whole different ball game and I would like

:29:40.:29:45.

to eat -- I would like you to be a bit favour with regards to that. Why

:29:46.:29:51.

should people vote for a party that might not even have a reason to

:29:52.:29:56.

exist after the referendum? Well, we will have a reason to exist because

:29:57.:30:00.

if we do not exist then no one else will hold David Cameron, if the vote

:30:01.:30:04.

to leave happens, hold him to account and make sure it happens.

:30:05.:30:09.

That is my view it. In terms of our councillors, they're in mind, we are

:30:10.:30:14.

the only party out there who do not whip our councillors. That may go

:30:15.:30:18.

back to the explanation. Perhaps just as well. I am not into

:30:19.:30:26.

dominatrix stuff. But that is the thing that some of our cabinet

:30:27.:30:30.

ministers are accused of at the moment. The issue is that there is a

:30:31.:30:33.

real disquiet amongst the electorate that they want to vote for somebody

:30:34.:30:36.

and then they see the systems that are currently in place, whether it

:30:37.:30:40.

is a cabinet system RE committee, there are backbenchers that find

:30:41.:30:43.

themselves in the situation where they cannot contribute to decisions.

:30:44.:30:47.

We are talking about incursions into the green belt, house-building

:30:48.:30:53.

targets. And this is the sort of issue that a modern whipped Ukip

:30:54.:30:59.

counsellor will be able to represent the community. And even if we leave

:31:00.:31:07.

Europe? Yes, Ukip continues. Thank you. And we will be talking to the

:31:08.:31:11.

Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats about the local elections

:31:12.:31:16.

in England next week. You are watching the Sunday Politics. We say

:31:17.:31:19.

goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics

:31:20.:31:21.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:31:22.:31:26.

Labour is aiming to to win back members who voted Yes

:31:27.:31:30.

to independence and have switched to the SNP - but will its

:31:31.:31:33.

The SNP hopes to be toasting its third consecutive term in office.

:31:34.:31:39.

Can it continue to manage the expectations of voters?

:31:40.:31:46.

Labour has one clear task in this election -

:31:47.:31:49.

to win back those supporters who voted yes in the independence

:31:50.:31:53.

It's campaigning to use the additional powers coming

:31:54.:31:59.

to Holyrood and on raising taxes which it says will

:32:00.:32:04.

It's an attempt to carve out a distinctively Scottish,

:32:05.:32:07.

But polls suggest that voters are divided on the subject

:32:08.:32:10.

They're not convinced that Scottish Labour can provide

:32:11.:32:14.

Indeed the narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives

:32:15.:32:18.

could be interpreted as an indication that the party

:32:19.:32:20.

isn't necessarily seen as an effective opposition either.

:32:21.:32:22.

Kezia Dugdale is shooting for success. Or is at least trying to.

:32:23.:32:40.

Kezia Dugdale has been elected. She took over from a Scottish Labour

:32:41.:32:45.

leader just over a year ago, promising to rebuild the party after

:32:46.:32:52.

several crushing election defeats. Kezia Dugdale was born in Aberdeen

:32:53.:32:57.

and studied law at the city's University. She says she became an

:32:58.:33:03.

MSP by accident. Now, as Labour leader, she is trying to position

:33:04.:33:08.

the party as anti-austerity. Labour have clearly decided to pitch from a

:33:09.:33:15.

relatively left-wing area, saying we're going to increase taxes in

:33:16.:33:20.

order to avoid spending cuts. Certainly for around many Scots,

:33:21.:33:22.

including people who say they are going to vote for the SNP, this

:33:23.:33:26.

actually looks like a pretty popular so certainly, Labour's message on

:33:27.:33:31.

tax, if they can persuade people it would deliver better public

:33:32.:33:34.

services, could potentially be a vote winner. Kezia Dugdale says her

:33:35.:33:39.

manifesto will be the most positive one ever, although we have no way to

:33:40.:33:45.

judge that, because she has not published it yet. But we do know

:33:46.:33:49.

Labour wants to boost funding for public services, cat tax the rich to

:33:50.:33:52.

improve education, and scrap council tax. However, the party also faces a

:33:53.:33:58.

post independence referendum challenge. Labour's problem is that

:33:59.:34:02.

maybe as much as two in five of those people who once used to vote

:34:03.:34:07.

for the party voted for independence in September 2014, and very few of

:34:08.:34:10.

them have so far change their minds, and having voted for independence,

:34:11.:34:16.

they now want to carry on voting for the SNP, not only last year, but

:34:17.:34:20.

this year as well. So how might that play out? Kezia Dugdale is Scottish

:34:21.:34:27.

Labour's eight leader since 1999. Our opponents may well wonder how

:34:28.:34:31.

well her party has to do for her to stay in the job.

:34:32.:34:31.

Let's start with independence, shall we? You'd told the Fabian Society

:34:32.:34:42.

that of Scotland voted to stay in the EU and the UK voted to leave,

:34:43.:34:50.

you said you would possibly vote for independence. You have said since

:34:51.:34:52.

then that she did not express yourself very well. What were you

:34:53.:34:57.

thinking? I have made it very clear in the weeks and months since that

:34:58.:35:00.

interview, which was back in February, that I was very proud to

:35:01.:35:05.

vote no. I campaigned for two and a half years to say why Scotland was

:35:06.:35:09.

better placed within the UK and I would do so again and Labour's

:35:10.:35:12.

manifesto... So why did you say that? There is a clear commitment

:35:13.:35:20.

now that we all pose a second referendum on independence. So if we

:35:21.:35:24.

vote to leave the EU and Scotland votes to stay in and there is

:35:25.:35:30.

another independence referendum, you would put staying in the UK ahead of

:35:31.:35:37.

being a Scotland in Europe? As I say, the manifesto which we will

:35:38.:35:40.

publish on Wednesday will have a very clear commitment to oppose a

:35:41.:35:45.

second referendum and there is a reason for that that I would like to

:35:46.:35:50.

get onto talking about. Unless you win the election, it will not be

:35:51.:35:54.

your choice. What I am asking you is if there is... If Scotland does vote

:35:55.:35:58.

to stay in the EU and Britain votes if there is... If Scotland does vote

:35:59.:36:01.

to leave and there is another independence referendum, will you

:36:02.:36:06.

campaign for a no vote under those circumstances? I do not accept that

:36:07.:36:11.

there will be another referendum. Just speculate wildly. In every

:36:12.:36:15.

scenario, I would vote no gain because I believe that the economic

:36:16.:36:19.

case for independence has fallen apart. I believe that the best way

:36:20.:36:22.

to pull and share resources is together. Should Scotland vote to

:36:23.:36:29.

stay in the EU if Britain votes to leave and there is another

:36:30.:36:32.

independence referendum, you will vote to stay in the UK? I will

:36:33.:36:36.

always vote no against independence because the economics of

:36:37.:36:38.

independence have fallen apart but we have got to be very clear. We

:36:39.:36:43.

were told that this was a once in a lifetime, once in a generation

:36:44.:36:47.

opportunity. We spent two and a half years campaigning on the issue and

:36:48.:36:51.

85% of the population voted in that. The result should be respected and

:36:52.:36:56.

we should spend the next five years talking about how we will use the

:36:57.:36:58.

powers of the Scottish Parliament to create a more equal country. I think

:36:59.:37:02.

regardless of whether you are yes or no in that referendum, that is what

:37:03.:37:05.

you want. Move on from those arguments of the past and talk about

:37:06.:37:08.

the powers of the parliament. That is what you say but presumably given

:37:09.:37:13.

what you told us on this programme last autumn, should there be another

:37:14.:37:17.

independence referendum in those circumstances and the SNP say they

:37:18.:37:20.

would like one, there would be nothing to stop the Labour Party

:37:21.:37:26.

members voting and campaigning for a vote to leave the UK and stay in

:37:27.:37:30.

Europe? I can't be any clearer than I have with you today. I was proud

:37:31.:37:37.

to vote no. I would vote no again. When I asked you last autumn weather

:37:38.:37:44.

Labour MPs in this piece -- or MSPs should be able to campaign for

:37:45.:37:49.

independence, you said yes. That is pretty unequivocal. Every Labour MSP

:37:50.:37:52.

that was there during the light of the independence referendum voted

:37:53.:38:03.

no. I've said he very clearly what the platform and the manifesto will

:38:04.:38:11.

say. But you said your MPs should be able to vote yes. I will always vote

:38:12.:38:16.

no. That is not what I am asking you. You have asked a number of

:38:17.:38:19.

questions but I am answering them as clearly as I possibly can. Are you

:38:20.:38:23.

saying that Labour members would not be allowed to campaign for a yes

:38:24.:38:27.

vote? What I have said many times before is the reality that something

:38:28.:38:30.

like a third of Scottish Labour voters around the country to a

:38:31.:38:33.

different position from what the party was advocating for any

:38:34.:38:36.

referendum, because what unites people in the Labour Party is a

:38:37.:38:39.

desire to tackle poverty and inequality. That is what brings us

:38:40.:38:44.

together and what drives us. I am sure it does but it is not an answer

:38:45.:38:46.

to my question. So when the sure it does but it is not an answer

:38:47.:38:49.

Conservatives say that now they are the only big party in Scotland,

:38:50.:38:52.

which clearly an equivocally stands up for the union, you have given

:38:53.:38:56.

these incidents we are going over a year, they have got a point, haven't

:38:57.:39:01.

they? I utterly refute that the Scottish Tories are any good at

:39:02.:39:04.

maintaining and supporting the union. I will give you four very

:39:05.:39:09.

simple reasons why. It was David Cameron within hours of the

:39:10.:39:11.

referendum result who was advocating English books for English laws,

:39:12.:39:14.

which undermined the whole referendum process that we had been

:39:15.:39:22.

through. -- English votes. What the Tories say is that if you do

:39:23.:39:27.

interviews what you say is that you would not inconceivably vote for

:39:28.:39:32.

independence and you say that Labour MPs can campaign for independence if

:39:33.:39:36.

they want to, so then the position of your party is not unambiguous. It

:39:37.:39:40.

is important to say that it is Ruth Davidson who cannot be trusted on

:39:41.:39:43.

the issue because her party have done more to divide working people

:39:44.:39:46.

across this country than anyone can possibly imagine. I am trying to do

:39:47.:39:50.

is to say that we had a very healthy and democratic process in the

:39:51.:39:53.

referendum and the result should be respected. I think people who voted

:39:54.:39:57.

both yes and no want to move on from that and the big issue at this

:39:58.:40:00.

election is how we can use the powers of the Scottish Parliament to

:40:01.:40:03.

deliver that change that so many people want to see. Let me quote you

:40:04.:40:06.

deliver that change that so many from a leader in the daily record,

:40:07.:40:11.

hardly a paper unsympathetic to the Labour Party. They said, the party

:40:12.:40:13.

still have no idea about what to do Labour Party. They said, the party

:40:14.:40:18.

about the surge of support for independence that accompanied the

:40:19.:40:21.

referendum. Their fortunes will not be revived until they do. I think

:40:22.:40:26.

lots of people that voted yes during the referendum voted yes not because

:40:27.:40:31.

they were die-hard emotional nationalists, they voted yes because

:40:32.:40:36.

yes represented a way to change this country, to make it more just, and

:40:37.:40:40.

what I am arguing in this election is that we now have a very powerful

:40:41.:40:44.

Scottish parliament, a substantial tax and welfare powers. We have the

:40:45.:40:48.

ability to stop obscenity and to end the cuts, to make different choices

:40:49.:40:52.

from the Tories and that is what I want to focus on. The chance to use

:40:53.:40:56.

those powers to do something differently from the Tories. Are you

:40:57.:41:01.

going to come ahead of the Tories? I want to win this election, Gordon. I

:41:02.:41:07.

see that the polls are challenging. Will you come ahead of the Tories?

:41:08.:41:09.

see that the polls are challenging. It is not enough for me to aspire to

:41:10.:41:14.

lead the opposition. I want to be in Government. But realistically, is

:41:15.:41:17.

there anything on the doorsteps that tells you you're going to come out

:41:18.:41:20.

clearly ahead of the Conservatives? I caught a little bit of your

:41:21.:41:23.

package from John Curtis. I didn't hear it all as I was coming into the

:41:24.:41:27.

studio but you heard in that package a great deal of support for the

:41:28.:41:33.

policies that we are advocating, particularly around the use of the

:41:34.:41:36.

tax powers. There have been at least three or four balls that say that

:41:37.:41:39.

people like the idea that we have the powers in the Scottish

:41:40.:41:41.

Parliament to make different choices from the Tories, not to use our

:41:42.:41:43.

parliament as a conveyor belt for Tory cuts but to do things

:41:44.:41:45.

differently and Labour bust manifesto would be the first to talk

:41:46.:41:50.

about how to use our tax powers at which gives people an opportunity to

:41:51.:41:55.

vote for change, and into austerity. If you lose to the Tories, will you

:41:56.:42:01.

resign? No. I have said right from the beginning that the Labour

:42:02.:42:04.

Party's problems did not happen overnight and will not be finished

:42:05.:42:11.

overnight. If you come in last? Even if that were to happen, I would

:42:12.:42:16.

absolutely continue in the post. I have always said that I have a

:42:17.:42:19.

long-term plan to turn around the fortunes of the Labour Party. I have

:42:20.:42:22.

just started that work. A very big part of that is putting forward a

:42:23.:42:26.

much clearer sense of what the Scottish Labour Party is for, what

:42:27.:42:29.

we stand for and who we stand with. You can see from the report that

:42:30.:42:32.

John Curtis put out there that there is a lot of support for those

:42:33.:42:34.

John Curtis put out there that there policies. Irrespective of the

:42:35.:42:41.

results, we have had bad news this week, on a climate in Scotland going

:42:42.:42:44.

up faster than anywhere else in Britain. Some economists worry that

:42:45.:42:48.

the Scottish economy could be heading for recession, incomes have

:42:49.:42:53.

been stagnant, we desperately need people to get... To get people

:42:54.:43:00.

spending more money and gets in economic activity going. Just about

:43:01.:43:06.

that last thing, a situation like that, while the Government pay taxes

:43:07.:43:09.

up? Digg it is a very old-fashioned argument to say that the only weak

:43:10.:43:13.

support business is by cutting taxes. Actually, if you look at the

:43:14.:43:16.

growing economies across Europe and wider around the world, the best

:43:17.:43:21.

thing we do in an increasingly globalised world is invest in the

:43:22.:43:23.

schools and the knowledge of our people, so I would say to you,

:43:24.:43:28.

Gordon... Lets not get into it. I can see the argument. Right, good.

:43:29.:43:33.

It is a very good thing to do to invest in schools and people. Right

:43:34.:43:37.

now, when we have got bad news and deployment, when we have stagnant

:43:38.:43:42.

incomes and we are arguably, and as your party has argued, we need a

:43:43.:43:44.

stimulus to the economy, putting your party has argued, we need a

:43:45.:43:49.

taxes up which sucks demand out of the economy is precisely

:43:50.:43:50.

taxes up which sucks demand out of opposite of what we need to be

:43:51.:43:55.

doing, surely? I disagree because if you look at the big employers where

:43:56.:44:00.

we have seen job losses and all of those people out of work, we have to

:44:01.:44:03.

help them gain new skills and new opportunities for the future.

:44:04.:44:08.

But everyone else's taxes up is hardly a way to help the unemployed.

:44:09.:44:14.

Anyone earning less than ?20,000 a year is not going to pay tax. I

:44:15.:44:20.

don't want to get into a discussion about who pays. Overall, if you put

:44:21.:44:24.

people's taxes up, even if it is only a fiver a month, but have

:44:25.:44:29.

either they might not be paying in their local shops, a fiver where

:44:30.:44:32.

they might take the bus, rather than a cab in Aberdeen, where the economy

:44:33.:44:36.

is very distressed and cab drivers could do with the extra money. It is

:44:37.:44:40.

an economic basic - you're taking the band out of the economy. I'm

:44:41.:44:44.

afraid that's not correct and there is an independent expert's at Vicey

:44:45.:44:47.

can point to de Bruyn that'll stop the IPPR have proved that more

:44:48.:44:51.

action leads to an increase in GDP into the billions of pounds. By

:44:52.:45:00.

when? Our plans are for the lifetime of the next Parliament. That's the

:45:01.:45:04.

manifesto proposal. It still doesn't answer my point that taking demand

:45:05.:45:07.

out of the economy... Look, if you can provide analysis that shows that

:45:08.:45:11.

spending public money on schools and education in the short term puts

:45:12.:45:16.

more money into the economy than the tax spending that you take out of

:45:17.:45:21.

it, then fine, but I'll bet my bottom dollar you can't produce any

:45:22.:45:26.

evidence showing that. A part of the problem in Scotland today is how

:45:27.:45:28.

short-term our approach to public policy is. The Labour Party is the

:45:29.:45:32.

only one advocating about what Scotland might look like in ten, 20,

:45:33.:45:36.

30 years, and the decisions that we have to make now... I'm talking in

:45:37.:45:43.

the papers today about the need to invest in coding skills. The last

:45:44.:45:49.

Labour government face the financial crisis in 2008 and clearly hadn't

:45:50.:45:51.

read the Kezia Dugdale economic expert. They cut VAT as a way of

:45:52.:45:57.

pumping money into the economy for top you're proposing to do the

:45:58.:46:00.

opposite. If you look at growing economies across Europe and across

:46:01.:46:04.

the world, those that are doing well are investing in the skills and

:46:05.:46:07.

knowledge of their people. I want Scotland to have a world-class

:46:08.:46:10.

education system, where we invest in the skills and training for people

:46:11.:46:14.

at all ages. You can't do that, though, without finding the money to

:46:15.:46:17.

do that and the reality is, not only could we make the wrong choice by

:46:18.:46:21.

not pursuing this path but we will face further cuts if we are left

:46:22.:46:25.

following the decisions of the SNP and the Tories, which will

:46:26.:46:28.

exacerbate the problem. Can I ask you about another issue, named

:46:29.:46:33.

persons' legislation. Jenny Marra, one of your closest colleagues, said

:46:34.:46:36.

she regretted that she voted for it in the first place and that she

:46:37.:46:41.

would now oppose it. Is Labour now opposed to a? No, we support the

:46:42.:46:44.

would now oppose it. Is Labour now Prince will of named person. I was

:46:45.:46:47.

the education spokesperson for the party during the passage of that

:46:48.:46:53.

bill. Why is Jenny Marra wrong? Every leading children's charity in

:46:54.:46:56.

the country came to me and said that this was what we needed to do to

:46:57.:46:59.

protect the most vulnerable children and we supported that. We made some

:47:00.:47:02.

very serious statements and concerns about the debate, which was

:47:03.:47:07.

resourced. We were worried that the money wasn't there to do this

:47:08.:47:10.

properly but we supported the principle. What has happened in

:47:11.:47:13.

recent months and weeks as I've travelled the country and my

:47:14.:47:16.

colleagues have done likewise, and we have met countless parents and

:47:17.:47:19.

families who are at their wits' end with worry about this proposal,

:47:20.:47:23.

which is why in recent weeks, I have said that if there was a Labour

:47:24.:47:27.

government, we would pause the introduction of this legislation.

:47:28.:47:31.

There is an important point to come here. I have to say this to you. We

:47:32.:47:34.

would ask the children's commissioner who supports the scheme

:47:35.:47:40.

to try and rebuild that trust and faith which has been lost before it

:47:41.:47:44.

is introduced. With your manifesto have a commitment to scrapping

:47:45.:47:48.

Trident? The manifesto will say that following a decision taken as a

:47:49.:47:52.

party conference in table, we oppose the renewal of Trident and we would

:47:53.:47:57.

like to see those jobs protected with the defence diversification

:47:58.:48:01.

agency. And you won't agree with a word of it? I have said for many

:48:02.:48:04.

months now and on your programme before now but when I took over the

:48:05.:48:07.

leadership of the Labour Party there were mixed views on the future of

:48:08.:48:13.

Trident. For me as leader, I did some unique, to have a healthy

:48:14.:48:18.

democratic process. Every other party leader I've interviewed, at

:48:19.:48:21.

least I can rely on the fact that what's in their manifesto might be a

:48:22.:48:25.

load of old rubbish but they actually do believe in it. You are

:48:26.:48:28.

the first leader I've interviewed who doesn't agree with a very

:48:29.:48:32.

important issue that in their own manifesto. The manifesto that we'll

:48:33.:48:36.

important issue that in their own be publishing this week is a

:48:37.:48:38.

programme for government for the next five years of the Scottish

:48:39.:48:42.

Parliament elections. It is driven fundamentally by a different... A

:48:43.:48:45.

lot of people watching this will just say, hang on a minute - she

:48:46.:48:51.

doesn't even agree with what's on her own manifesto. That tells you

:48:52.:48:54.

all you need to know about the Labour Party in Scotland. The

:48:55.:48:57.

difference between the SNP and the Tories and Labour is that whilst

:48:58.:49:01.

they obsess with personality style elections, what you have in the

:49:02.:49:05.

Labour manifesto is a manifesto, a set of policies and platforms, that

:49:06.:49:08.

have been brought together in a healthy, democratic way through our

:49:09.:49:12.

movement with our party members, the trade unions, hundreds of

:49:13.:49:17.

stakeholders across the country. Is there a big idea in your manifesto

:49:18.:49:20.

you haven't announced it? You're on national TV - you might as well say

:49:21.:49:24.

it. The biggest idea we have is applied to stop the cuts and invest

:49:25.:49:28.

in education. So there is no big new idea in your manifesto. It's the

:49:29.:49:32.

same idea we've been arguing for months and that's what you expect.

:49:33.:49:35.

With you ever become First Minister? I very much hope so. But are you

:49:36.:49:41.

confident? I would love the opportunity to serve this country.

:49:42.:49:43.

OK, thank you. The SNP is hoping to secure it's

:49:44.:49:45.

third consecutive term in government, and even

:49:46.:49:48.

the opposition parties concede that it's likely

:49:49.:49:49.

to succeed in that aspiration. Nicola Sturgeon, leading her party

:49:50.:49:51.

into a Scottish election for the first time, says she's

:49:52.:49:54.

immensely proud of what the party has achieved over the past nine

:49:55.:49:57.

years, but stresses that "the journey to a fairer,

:49:58.:49:59.

more equal and prosperous With more powers over tax

:50:00.:50:01.

and spending, pledges to grow the economy,

:50:02.:50:04.

increase spending on the NHS and education and create

:50:05.:50:06.

a new social security bill, can the party take us further along

:50:07.:50:09.

that journey and closer Pretty much everyone accepts Nicola

:50:10.:50:21.

Sturgeon's SNP will be toasting a third term in office this may. The

:50:22.:50:27.

party has been attracting new members by the thousand, who seem to

:50:28.:50:33.

like the SNP's collection policies, which include boosting NHS funding

:50:34.:50:38.

and free childcare, and the party's defining mission - closing the

:50:39.:50:42.

attainment gap in education. The SNP's strength lies in the fact that

:50:43.:50:47.

of the 45% people who voted for independence in September 2014, most

:50:48.:50:52.

of them are now voting for the SNP and are wanting to reaffirm their

:50:53.:50:53.

of them are now voting for the SNP support for independence I backing

:50:54.:51:00.

the party. So the truth is, the party's commitment to independence,

:51:01.:51:03.

albeit one that it may not try to deliver for the next five years, is

:51:04.:51:06.

undoubtedly the central calling card that the SNP have in this election,

:51:07.:51:10.

much as they did 12 months ago. Success has been a long time coming

:51:11.:51:15.

for Nicola Sturgeon, who was born in urban and join the SNP as a

:51:16.:51:19.

teenager. The former solicitor was elected as an MSP in 1999. And in

:51:20.:51:26.

2014 she became leader of the SNP and Scotland's first female First

:51:27.:51:33.

Minister. Rubbish! You're a harsh critic! But Ms Sturgeon has her

:51:34.:51:38.

critics and there are other challenges. The danger that perhaps

:51:39.:51:41.

the SNP have to avoid is challenges. The danger that perhaps

:51:42.:51:44.

because they are appearing to be largely reluctant to use their new

:51:45.:51:49.

taxation powers in order to increase spending in Scotland, as to whether

:51:50.:51:54.

or not that we'll begin to disenchant some of their voters,

:51:55.:51:57.

many of whom have switched to the party from Labour because they

:51:58.:51:59.

thought it was the more left-wing party. Certainly not being seen to

:52:00.:52:05.

be left-wing enough and, as a result, not Scottish above, is

:52:06.:52:09.

certainly the potential pitfall. That said, there's no indication of

:52:10.:52:12.

a dip in the SNP's popularity any time soon.

:52:13.:52:18.

Bra second interview of the day we are turning to the SNP. -- for our

:52:19.:52:21.

second interview. A short while ago I spoke

:52:22.:52:23.

to the First Minister and SNP You say in your manifesto that

:52:24.:52:29.

reason for holding another independence referendum would be if

:52:30.:52:34.

there is a significant material change in the circumstances

:52:35.:52:38.

prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against

:52:39.:52:43.

our will. So if Scotland votes to stay in the EU but Britain votes to

:52:44.:52:48.

leave, will there be another independence referendum? There may

:52:49.:52:51.

well be. But will there be? Is a your plan to have one? I think that

:52:52.:52:56.

would depend on the circumstances and the narrowness of the results

:52:57.:53:00.

overall. I'm hoping that scenario doesn't arrive, which is why I'm a

:53:01.:53:03.

bit reluctant to get dragged into all of the spec elation around.

:53:04.:53:07.

Abbey campaigning very hard for Scotland to vote to stay in and I

:53:08.:53:10.

hope the rest of the UK votes to stay in. -- I'll be campaigning. But

:53:11.:53:16.

given the centrality of the issue to the Scottish referendum and the fact

:53:17.:53:19.

that those campaigning them for a no vote said we would get chucked out

:53:20.:53:23.

of Europe if we voted yes, to get taken out of Europe now against our

:53:24.:53:26.

will would, to many people, including people who voted no in

:53:27.:53:30.

2014, say it is time to think again. I'm not asking you a spec that of

:53:31.:53:34.

question. You are the First Minister of Scotland. You are quite likely to

:53:35.:53:39.

be the First Minister of Scotland. I'm asking you as First Minister, if

:53:40.:53:42.

that scenario comes to pass, will you hold another referendum? I think

:53:43.:53:47.

it is highly likely will have another referendum in those

:53:48.:53:49.

circumstances because people will want to protect our man Bishop of

:53:50.:53:53.

the EU. But what I'm also saying is that notwithstanding my lifelong,

:53:54.:53:56.

passionate supporter and dependence, I hope those are not the

:53:57.:54:02.

circumstances. -- supporter of independence. You are the First

:54:03.:54:07.

Minister. Will you organise it? If we are taken out of the EU against

:54:08.:54:12.

our will, I will want to give the people of Scotland the opportunity

:54:13.:54:14.

to protect our U membership by looking again at the opportunity of

:54:15.:54:20.

independence I will the circumstances at the time. What does

:54:21.:54:25.

that mean? It means exactly what I'm telling you. I can't be any clearer.

:54:26.:54:31.

I think you could be a lot clearer. What does judging the circumstances

:54:32.:54:34.

mean? We would have to wait to see what the precise outcome of the

:54:35.:54:37.

referendum was, what the narrowness or otherwise of the result was in

:54:38.:54:41.

Scotland versus the rest of the UK, but I am saying very clearly I think

:54:42.:54:45.

that would be a democratically unacceptable situation for Scotland

:54:46.:54:50.

to be in. If Scotland votes to stay in the EU but Britain votes to leave

:54:51.:54:55.

and if it's quite a clear vote... In the circumstances, we would almost

:54:56.:54:57.

and if it's quite a clear vote... In certainly be in this situation of

:54:58.:55:01.

looking again at independence. Even if the poll showed you would win an

:55:02.:55:05.

independence referendum? That is exactly the situation I'm describing

:55:06.:55:07.

in terms of judging the circumstances. In the event that

:55:08.:55:12.

that scenario arises... But I know personally people who have voted no

:55:13.:55:16.

in 2014 and did so quite pass he would change their dip to an

:55:17.:55:21.

independence should that price. But again, I hope the situation doesn't

:55:22.:55:28.

arise. I take your point. You are not being clear on this. A lot of

:55:29.:55:34.

people suspect that what the SNP's real policy is is to hold an

:55:35.:55:36.

independence referendum when the polls are going your way. If this

:55:37.:55:41.

issue of Europe is a matter of principle for you and if Scotland

:55:42.:55:46.

votes by a substantial majority to stay in and Britain votes to leave,

:55:47.:55:51.

why can't you say, irrespective of what the polls show about

:55:52.:55:53.

independence we should have another referendum? I think democracy

:55:54.:55:58.

matters in the round and you choose to characterise it as me wanting

:55:59.:56:00.

another referendum when the polls show I can win it but what I'm

:56:01.:56:05.

saying is rooted in democracy. There will be another referendum on

:56:06.:56:08.

independence in Scotland if and when there is evidence that a majority of

:56:09.:56:10.

people want there to be independence. I actually think that

:56:11.:56:14.

is likely. Which means, when the polls go your way. When people of

:56:15.:56:21.

change their opinion from 2014. That means when the polls go your way.

:56:22.:56:25.

You are choosing to characterise it as that. I would characterise it as

:56:26.:56:29.

when people have changed their minds from the situation in 2014. It is,

:56:30.:56:33.

if you like, respectively 2014 decision. If people don't change

:56:34.:56:36.

their view, I'd only get would be right to say that we should ask the

:56:37.:56:40.

question again. Equally, if people do change their view, it would be

:56:41.:56:43.

wrong to stand on the way of that. It's absolutely rooted in democracy.

:56:44.:56:48.

What you are actually saying is, if Scotland votes to stay in the EU by

:56:49.:56:52.

a substantial majority and Britain votes to leave, you would like to

:56:53.:56:55.

hold a referendum but you won't hold a referendum if the polls show you

:56:56.:57:00.

won't win it? I am saying that my position on a second referendum is

:57:01.:57:04.

rigid in democracy. If we are in the situation, which I hope doesn't

:57:05.:57:07.

arise, that Scotland is effectively facing the prospect of being dragged

:57:08.:57:11.

out of the EU against our will, I think there will be an overwhelming

:57:12.:57:14.

demand to look again at the question of independence. The question I'm

:57:15.:57:20.

asking you is, is holding a referendum for you a matter of

:57:21.:57:24.

principle on the issue of Europe or is it just another tactical ploy and

:57:25.:57:27.

what you really mean is, when the polls go our way we will have an

:57:28.:57:31.

independence referendum? I want Scotland to be independent. I've

:57:32.:57:34.

argued this case for my entire adult life and I believe independence is

:57:35.:57:37.

the best future for Scotland but I'm also a Democrat and I believe that

:57:38.:57:40.

the decisions about the future of our country should be driven by

:57:41.:57:43.

majority opinion in our country. I also hope that the UK doesn't vote

:57:44.:57:48.

to come out of the EU but I think it would be such a democratic outrage

:57:49.:57:50.

of Scotland were to be taken out of the EU against our will that I think

:57:51.:57:53.

there would be an overwhelming demand in those circumstances to

:57:54.:57:57.

have another referendum. You say you are a Democrat. The democratic norm

:57:58.:58:02.

would be to do what you did in 2011 - you have a manifesto which says

:58:03.:58:06.

"Vote SNP and if you vote for us and we form a government we will hold a

:58:07.:58:10.

referendum". What is different between now and 2011 is that we had

:58:11.:58:14.

a referendum and much to my regret, we narrowly failed to get a "yes"

:58:15.:58:19.

vote. It is reasonable to say that I respect that outcome and I will be

:58:20.:58:22.

doing my best to change the outcome of -- change the opinion of people

:58:23.:58:25.

in Scotland and persuade the people we didn't persuade in 2014 to back

:58:26.:58:29.

independence as the best future for Scotland. So at the next election

:58:30.:58:31.

you'll have a manifesto which says Scotland. So at the next election

:58:32.:58:35.

"Vote SNP and we will have another referendum". I am standing on a

:58:36.:58:39.

manifesto that is before you there and it says that the onus is on me,

:58:40.:58:42.

the SNP, those who support independence to persuade more people

:58:43.:58:47.

than we managed in 2014 and if we are successful in that, we will earn

:58:48.:58:50.

the right to ask the question again. If we are not successful we went on

:58:51.:58:54.

that right. It is simple and rooted in democracy.

:58:55.:59:03.

You can't call a referendum just because the polls are going your

:59:04.:59:10.

way. David Cameron cant call a general election just because the

:59:11.:59:13.

polls are going his way. You are saying that you can call a

:59:14.:59:17.

referendum just because the opinion polls are saying that. The reason

:59:18.:59:27.

why we have long argued the referendum richer independence is

:59:28.:59:30.

that we recognise and have long recognised that in a general

:59:31.:59:33.

election, you are Scottish, people vote for a variety of different

:59:34.:59:37.

reasons. The question of the constitutional future of the country

:59:38.:59:40.

can only be determined through a referendum. But I am saying is that

:59:41.:59:45.

given we have had a in 2014, clearly I want to have a second one, but in

:59:46.:59:49.

order to end the rate for that, I have got to persuade more people

:59:50.:59:52.

that independence is the best future for our country. What this boils

:59:53.:59:56.

down to is that it what you are saying is that if you are in the

:59:57.:59:59.

administered after me, you will have another referendum, and if you are

:00:00.:00:04.

not, you will not. I respect the opinion of the people in Scotland. I

:00:05.:00:08.

do not understand what any Democrats finds objectionable about that. What

:00:09.:00:12.

I find objectionable is the politicians of this election who are

:00:13.:00:15.

saying that regardless of the opinions of the Scottish people,

:00:16.:00:19.

they would block the right of the Scottish people to choose their own

:00:20.:00:23.

future. Right, that there is no legs as deflation to do this. --

:00:24.:00:28.

legislation. I can't imagine any legislation that would say that

:00:29.:00:34.

Nicola Sturgeon can hold a referendum whenever she feels like

:00:35.:00:39.

it. We have to bring forward a legislation for a second referendum

:00:40.:00:48.

just as we did previously. We set the precedent in 2014 of how a

:00:49.:00:54.

consensual and democratic referendum can be conducted. One of your

:00:55.:00:58.

problems is that way back in 2007 you cut class sizes for primary

:00:59.:01:03.

school children who were in primary is 1-3. You have not done that. Is

:01:04.:01:09.

the promise they are in your current manifesto? There are plenty of

:01:10.:01:13.

pledges and commitments. We have reduced class sizes. No, the

:01:14.:01:20.

proportion of children in those under 18 class sizes is actually

:01:21.:01:23.

lower now than it was when you came to power. I am fighting an election

:01:24.:01:27.

on the pledges in the manifesto that is before you on the table there and

:01:28.:01:31.

central to the manifesto that I have put forward is a commitment to

:01:32.:01:35.

tackling the attainment gap in Scottish education, to making

:01:36.:01:38.

substantial progress in that over the next Parliament, to eliminating

:01:39.:01:44.

that over a decade. ?750 million of additional investment, specifically

:01:45.:01:47.

to tackle the attainment gap, much of that going direct to

:01:48.:01:50.

headteachers. That is the commitment I have made. I have asked to be

:01:51.:01:54.

judged on that commitment. What I was really getting at was your

:01:55.:01:59.

manifesto contains a rather mangled form of words about an independence

:02:00.:02:04.

referendum, which you lost less than two years ago. But on a commitment

:02:05.:02:09.

that you made a great fuss about in 2007, which you have never kept, and

:02:10.:02:12.

you are actually doing worse now than the previous Labour

:02:13.:02:15.

administration, there is not a word about it. The whole of Scotland had

:02:16.:02:20.

the opportunity to cast their verdict on our performance in the

:02:21.:02:27.

last election. That retirement is an SNP Government with a majority. I

:02:28.:02:30.

have put education as the centrepiece of the manifesto.

:02:31.:02:33.

Reducing class sizes, maintaining the number of teachers is part of

:02:34.:02:37.

what we will do. Why are you doing worse than the previous Labour

:02:38.:02:40.

administration? I do not accept that is the case on a whole range of

:02:41.:02:46.

issues. We are showing... On this specific issue. I am sure the

:02:47.:02:50.

attainment gap is narrowing, but I want to do better and faster, so

:02:51.:02:55.

that is why I put education at the Art of this manifesto. On the NHS

:02:56.:02:59.

commune said we will have new elective care centres and a new

:03:00.:03:03.

clinical care strategy. We had a new clinical care strategy before the

:03:04.:03:08.

dissolution of Parliament. There are no proposals to close hospitals as

:03:09.:03:11.

part of our manifesto. What we are saying in that manifesto is that to

:03:12.:03:15.

deal with the impact of an ageing population, then we need to expand

:03:16.:03:19.

the capacity to deal with treating operations like knee replacement,

:03:20.:03:22.

hip replacements, cataract operations. Will A services have

:03:23.:03:30.

to close? There are no proposals to close A services. Will any

:03:31.:03:35.

services which are provided locally have to close? Health boards will

:03:36.:03:39.

judge local areas on an ongoing basis but there are no proposals to

:03:40.:03:44.

close places in our manifesto. You have said you will protect access to

:03:45.:03:47.

close places in our manifesto. You care wherever possible. The words

:03:48.:03:50.

whenever possible imply that there may be those cases. We are trying to

:03:51.:03:53.

shift more care out of hospitals completely, so we need to make sure

:03:54.:03:56.

our hospitals are fit for the fact that we have an ageing population.

:03:57.:03:59.

They might be some people who love to travel or some small hospitals

:04:00.:04:04.

that have to close down. There are procedures that gave you years

:04:05.:04:07.

ago... I remember when my Gran had a cataract operation, she was in

:04:08.:04:10.

hospital for seven days. Nowadays, you go into hospital to have a

:04:11.:04:13.

cataract operation and you go in and out on the same morning often saw

:04:14.:04:17.

the nature of health care is changing. We have got to make

:04:18.:04:20.

sure... What I am getting at is that I remember in 2007 one of the

:04:21.:04:25.

reasons you won the election was by campaigning against a Labour plan

:04:26.:04:28.

for specialist centres which looks campaigning against a Labour plan

:04:29.:04:32.

remarkably similar to what you're proposing now? I campaign in 2007

:04:33.:04:36.

amongst other things on a to overturn the closure of A in

:04:37.:04:40.

amongst other things on a to Monklands and in air. One of the

:04:41.:04:44.

first things I did as Health Secretary was to overturn the

:04:45.:04:47.

closure of these A units. They are still open today, treating hundreds

:04:48.:04:50.

of thousands of patients and they will remain open as will other A

:04:51.:04:55.

services. Will we have 70 access to GPs? -- seven day. What David

:04:56.:05:04.

Cameron is talking about is we have junior doctors out on strike. What

:05:05.:05:08.

we need to make sure is that when ever you access health care in this

:05:09.:05:12.

country, you get access to good quality care, whether it is during

:05:13.:05:16.

the week or at weekends, and we are working to do that. One of the other

:05:17.:05:19.

things I didn't Health Secretary was extend the opening hours of GP

:05:20.:05:24.

practices so that more GP practices now are open early in the morning or

:05:25.:05:28.

on Saturday mornings and you will see in our manifesto commitment to

:05:29.:05:33.

extend that. You have all these wonderful pledges in your manifesto

:05:34.:05:40.

about more money for health care and hospitals and education, but you are

:05:41.:05:42.

against putting up taxes. What are you going to cut to pay for all

:05:43.:05:46.

this? The taxable salt in our manifesto, when you take income tax

:05:47.:05:51.

and local tax together. Over the next Parliament will raise at a

:05:52.:05:55.

minimum and additional ?2 billion in revenue. That is the revenue that we

:05:56.:06:03.

pay for health care commitments on education at health in our

:06:04.:06:06.

manifesto. ?2 billion of additional revenue raised from our reforms to

:06:07.:06:08.

local taxation and from the fact that we are not passing on a tax cut

:06:09.:06:14.

to higher rate income payers. So these are old proposals that will

:06:15.:06:17.

enable us to protect public services. We are going to raise at

:06:18.:06:23.

least ?2 billion to invest in our public services. But you will not

:06:24.:06:26.

cut anything? We will put forward our budgets each and every year, but

:06:27.:06:31.

we will raise additional revenue so that we do mitigate Tory cuts, but I

:06:32.:06:34.

want to continue also to find Tory cuts at their source in Westminster.

:06:35.:06:42.

But there will not be any cuts here? This is a manifesto for additional

:06:43.:06:45.

spending on health and education, funded by the tax proposals we are

:06:46.:06:48.

putting forward. The difference between the SNP and Labour in the

:06:49.:06:51.

collection of taxes that we are not going to raise tax on low income

:06:52.:06:55.

earners because we do not think it is fair that they shoulder the

:06:56.:07:02.

budget -- burden of Tory austerity. I'm curious. There is nothing

:07:03.:07:10.

illegitimate about it. Your picture is on the front. I don't think it is

:07:11.:07:15.

the first time a picture of the party leader has appeared on the

:07:16.:07:18.

front of a manifesto. You have had all these rallies and people treat

:07:19.:07:21.

you with a certain amount of adulation. Not you, I think it is

:07:22.:07:33.

fair to say. But you don't strike me as the sort of person who would

:07:34.:07:36.

necessarily be very comfortable with personal adulation. That is not how

:07:37.:07:42.

I choose to describe it because it is not how it feels to me. I'm

:07:43.:07:46.

I choose to describe it because it to make a point that is very

:07:47.:07:50.

personal to me and very important to me. I have been acutely aware each

:07:51.:07:54.

and every day of the last year and they have that I became First

:07:55.:07:58.

Minister during a parliamentary term. I am very proud and privileged

:07:59.:08:03.

to have become First Minister, but I want to get a personal mandate in

:08:04.:08:06.

this election, so it is the first time that I am asking people to vote

:08:07.:08:11.

for me as First Minister and that is something I take very seriously. I

:08:12.:08:14.

don't know that I will ever be comfortable at seeing pictures of

:08:15.:08:17.

myself everywhere. I'm not any politician is, but I understand it

:08:18.:08:21.

is a necessary process. We will have to leave it there. Nicola Sturgeon,

:08:22.:08:23.

thank you very much. I'll be back at the usual time

:08:24.:08:24.

of eleven o'clock next week. Shelley Jofre hosts the final

:08:25.:08:29.

Scotland 2016 debate on Housing on Tuesday night at half past ten

:08:30.:08:31.

on BBC 2 Scotland.

:08:32.:08:34.

With Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer.

Dominic Raab MP discusses the EU Referendum; Lucy Powell MP discusses Labour and the May Elections; and Diane James MEP discusses UKIP and the May Elections.

On the political panel are Janan Ganesh of The Financial Times, Isabel Oakeshott of The Daily Mail and Nick Watt of The Guardian.


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