Browse content similar to 22/05/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Leave campaigners say Turkey is on course to join | :00:36. | :00:43. | |
the European Union and, if we remain in the EU, | :00:44. | :00:45. | |
that will mean more criminals here and greater pressure | :00:46. | :00:48. | |
The Prime Minister says it's nonsense. | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
We'll have the latest on this developing row. | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
This woman claims to be the voice of business - | :00:55. | :00:57. | |
and that most businesses in the UK want to remain in the EU. | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
But is the business case that clear cut? | :01:01. | :01:02. | |
We speak to the Director General of the CBI. | :01:03. | :01:07. | |
When it comes to gauging public opinion on the referendum, | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
which is better: telephone polls or online polls? | :01:11. | :01:11. | |
Even the pollsters are having trouble answering that one. | :01:12. | :01:16. | |
And I tell you what, if I don't know, | :01:17. | :01:19. | |
having done all this opinion polling for lark for 21 years, | :01:20. | :01:22. | |
Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland: | :01:23. | :01:26. | |
for the Deputy First Minister - we're talking live to John Swinney | :01:27. | :01:31. | |
as he takes up his new post in charge of education. | :01:32. | :01:39. | |
in the EU referendum. Which way did they tilt? | :01:40. | :01:42. | |
And with me - as always - a political panel of the best | :01:43. | :01:45. | |
and the brightest in the business, hopefully they do know which way | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
to jump: Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh | :01:49. | :01:50. | |
who'll be tweeting throughout the programme. | :01:51. | :01:54. | |
Turkey has taken centre-stage in the referendum debate today. | :01:55. | :01:57. | |
Vote Leave are launching a new poster campaign warning that | :01:58. | :01:59. | |
Turkey is on course to join the EU, leaving the UK vulnerable | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
to criminals, mass migration and more pressure on public services. | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
The Prime Minister was asked about the claims | :02:08. | :02:09. | |
on the Robert Peston programme on ITV. | :02:10. | :02:13. | |
Every country has a veto, and let's be clear, | :02:14. | :02:17. | |
as Boris himself said, Turkey joining the EU is not remotely on | :02:18. | :02:21. | |
the cards. At the current rate of progress, this would be decades, | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
literally decades, before this even had a prospect of | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
happening, and even at that stage, we would be able to say no. | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
Well, that was David Cameron this morning. | :02:33. | :02:35. | |
But here's what he had to say in a speech in Istanbul in 2010. | :02:36. | :02:46. | |
But here's what he had to say in a speech in Ankara in 2010. | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
It makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be | :02:51. | :02:57. | |
frustrated. My view is clear. I believe it is wrong to say that | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
Turkey can guard the camp, but not be allowed to sit in the tent. So | :03:03. | :03:07. | |
why will remain your strongest possible advocate for EU membership | :03:08. | :03:13. | |
and for greater influence at the top table of European diplomacy. The | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
Prime Minister six years ago after becoming Prime Minister. | :03:17. | :03:21. | |
Is it a proper issue for this referendum or is it a red herring? | :03:22. | :03:29. | |
It is an issue and quite frankly, the Leave campaign will be delighted | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
that we are now talking about Turkey, because every time you talk | :03:33. | :03:38. | |
about Turkey, you conjure up the image of more migration, | :03:39. | :03:40. | |
uncontrolled immigration from a poorer countries so it is a Leave | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
win. I am not sure that the Prime Minister is right to engage in this | :03:46. | :03:56. | |
one. But he has been called about this from someone whose judgment he | :03:57. | :03:59. | |
also calls into question. But is a strange thing, his own Armed Forces | :04:00. | :04:07. | |
Minister. The Prime Minister is right to say we have a veto, every | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
EU member has a veto in new members, but if the Prime Minister is in | :04:14. | :04:16. | |
favour of Turkey joining, which is said he was in Ankara, then the veto | :04:17. | :04:22. | |
does not matter? Absolutely. What a great clip that was the Prime | :04:23. | :04:27. | |
Minister in 2010, when he set out Ray clearly what his position is. He | :04:28. | :04:31. | |
supports Turkey joining the EU in whatever time frame that may be. It | :04:32. | :04:38. | |
does not do for the Prime Minister to say we have a veto. The question | :04:39. | :04:42. | |
is, will you use that veto? If he is saying we would use our veto against | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
Turkey, that is big news and can we hear it? It would be a big U-turn. | :04:48. | :04:56. | |
It could be moot, couldn't it? There is no prospect of Turkey joining in | :04:57. | :05:00. | |
the future, is there? The telling thing about this conversation as we | :05:01. | :05:03. | |
are focusing on our veto and the veto possessed by all existing EU | :05:04. | :05:07. | |
members and not focusing on Turkey itself. Is that country as keen on | :05:08. | :05:14. | |
joining as was a decade ago? The change and internal politics in | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
Turkey suggests they are less keen on membership or less keen on doing | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
the things necessary to successfully apply for EU mentorship than they | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
were a while ago. I think for reasons on the Turkish side and on | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
the European side, it will not happen until I am a very old man. | :05:32. | :05:35. | |
But it is entirely legitimate for Leave to play up this issue and | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
every day we talk about migration is a day we're not spending talking | :05:40. | :05:42. | |
about the economy and I think that is their only route to victory four | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
weeks' time. There are plenty of forces in Germany and France, two | :05:50. | :05:52. | |
countries about to have elections next year, who are not going to | :05:53. | :05:57. | |
agree to Turkey joining any time soon. And if you were to be fair to | :05:58. | :06:02. | |
the prime and Vista, you would say he made that speech in 2010 in | :06:03. | :06:08. | |
Ankara, me and a whole load of political hacks were in the room | :06:09. | :06:11. | |
when he said it... Were you there? I was there. At one stage he says he | :06:12. | :06:19. | |
was passionate about Turkish president. He was very keen to suck | :06:20. | :06:25. | |
up to President Erdogan at the time because he wanted more trade. That | :06:26. | :06:33. | |
was pre-migration crisis. That has changed everything not just in | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
British politics but for Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande. It may | :06:38. | :06:40. | |
be acceptable for the Prime Minister to do a 180 degrees U-turn on this | :06:41. | :06:48. | |
issue. We will see as the day develops. | :06:49. | :06:51. | |
So, the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens, says the health | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
service would be worse off if we decide to leave the EU. | :06:55. | :06:57. | |
Two of his predecessors have also written a joint article | :06:58. | :06:59. | |
in the Sunday Times saying that they think, | :07:00. | :07:01. | |
for the NHS at least, staying in the EU is | :07:02. | :07:03. | |
Mr Stevens was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. | :07:04. | :07:07. | |
When Mark Carney says that the risk of a slowdown in economic growth, | :07:08. | :07:11. | |
possibly a recession, if we end up exiting the EU, | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
if Mark Carney is right, then that is a severe concern | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
for the National Health Service, because it would be very dangerous | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
if at precisely the moment the NHS is going to need extra funding, | :07:25. | :07:28. | |
actually the economy goes into a tailspin and that funding | :07:29. | :07:31. | |
Leave campaigners, unsurprisingly, take a different view - | :07:32. | :07:36. | |
they argue that remaining in the EU will place further strain on the NHS | :07:37. | :07:40. | |
due to continued free movement of people and the accession | :07:41. | :07:43. | |
What is the relationship between our membership | :07:44. | :07:56. | |
The Department of Health estimates that the cost to the NHS in England | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
from visitors and non-permanent residents who come from | :08:01. | :08:02. | |
the European economic area, that is the EU plus Iceland, | :08:03. | :08:05. | |
Lichtenstein and Norway, is around ?340 million a year. | :08:06. | :08:08. | |
To put that in context, the total annual expenditure | :08:09. | :08:11. | |
in England's NHS was ?113 billion in 2014-15. | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
There are around 3 million people from other EU countries resident | :08:17. | :08:19. | |
in the UK and all are entitled to use NHS services. | :08:20. | :08:25. | |
All those would be entitled to stay in the UK, even if we were to leave | :08:26. | :08:31. | |
the EU, due to the rights under the Vienna Convention. | :08:32. | :08:34. | |
In 2015, around 257,000 EU nationals migrated to the UK. | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
But whether that number would come down if we vote to leave depends | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
on the deal the UK strikes with the EU following an exit. | :08:43. | :08:47. | |
NHS England says the total number of staff coming from EU countries | :08:48. | :08:52. | |
was just over 53,000, or 4.6% of the total NHS workforce. | :08:53. | :08:58. | |
A total of 9% of NHS England's hospital doctors, 6% of its nurses | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
and health visitors, come from other EU countries, | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
however, all would be entitled to stay in the event of a vote | :09:09. | :09:11. | |
to leave, and without knowing what any future deal might be, | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
it is impossible to know if there would be any impact | :09:15. | :09:16. | |
A one-time pro-European Foreign Secretary, he is now | :09:17. | :09:24. | |
campaigning for the UK to leave the European Union. | :09:25. | :09:29. | |
Good morning, David Owen. Let me come straight to the remarks by the | :09:30. | :09:38. | |
man currently running the NHS in England, Simon Stevens. He said it | :09:39. | :09:42. | |
would be better for the NHS if we remain in the EU. What is your | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
response? Let's be quite clear. Simon Stevens is the manager of the | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
NHS, which is currently ?3 billion in debt. This man has presided now | :09:54. | :09:59. | |
for a sufficient time to judge his management skills. In almost every | :10:00. | :10:04. | |
part of the National Health Service, there is an acute crisis. He spent | :10:05. | :10:10. | |
ten years in America, with an American health care company, | :10:11. | :10:18. | |
effectively arguing for the TTIP, this treaty between America and the | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
European Union, which could be introduced, and an assessment makes | :10:23. | :10:34. | |
it very clear that TTIP will be very damaging to the National Health | :10:35. | :10:41. | |
Service, if it is drafted in the way that it is. Simon Stevens should | :10:42. | :10:46. | |
stick to his Lee which is to manage the health service more effectively. | :10:47. | :10:51. | |
He is an individual, he has a view on the European Union which is fine, | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
but his basic job is to look after the NHS, and at the moment he is | :10:56. | :11:01. | |
making a very considerable mess of. It is not just Simon Stevens, two of | :11:02. | :11:10. | |
his predecessors say staying in the EU is the preferable option. | :11:11. | :11:15. | |
Identifying, if there is any danger to the NHS, it is in staying in, | :11:16. | :11:21. | |
with all the elements of the NHS which are now involved with the EU. | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
-- I don't think. For the first 20 years of our membership, with the | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
common market, we had no involvement with the NHS at all. Now the NHS | :11:32. | :11:36. | |
procurement policy, the NHS competition policy is all impact in, | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
because we have started to Mark ties the NHS in 2002 under Labour. It | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
continued under the coalition with the Liberal Democrats of this | :11:47. | :11:49. | |
present Conservative government, and it has continued under this | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
Conservative government. If you treat health like water or | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
electricity or gas, as a utility, and you treat them all as customers, | :11:59. | :12:04. | |
then you will be under market pressures, and the problem with the | :12:05. | :12:10. | |
NHS is we lost what it was, it fortunately still is in Wales, | :12:11. | :12:14. | |
Scotland and Northern Ireland, but in England it is a marker ties to | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
health service modelling itself on the United States of America. If you | :12:20. | :12:22. | |
wanted to make changes, you would be wiser to stick to Germany or France, | :12:23. | :12:28. | |
not go the United States model. Let me put a point to you. Michael Gove, | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
part of the Leave campaign, he says the NHS could be overwhelmed by | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
continued migration if we stay in the EU. He predicts an extra 5 | :12:38. | :12:44. | |
million plus by 2030. These predictions suggest that Turkey, | :12:45. | :12:50. | |
Macedonia and Albania all join the EU by 2020. That is not on the | :12:51. | :12:55. | |
cards, is it? Let's be clear about your programme so far and analyse | :12:56. | :13:03. | |
what has been said already. It is not the Prime Minister what he said | :13:04. | :13:07. | |
in Istanbul, the Prime Minister nine weeks ago signed up to the European | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
Council meeting on the 18th of March, and he said, to re-energise | :13:12. | :13:20. | |
the accession process for Turkey to join the EU, and to make preparatory | :13:21. | :13:27. | |
work for the opening of other chapters will continue at an | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
accelerating pace. This is a Prime Minister who is getting used to | :13:34. | :13:36. | |
saying one thing one time, another thing another. Nine weeks ago, we | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
were committed to increasing the speed of entry for Turkey into the | :13:42. | :13:48. | |
European Union. I am passionate about keeping Turkey inside Nato, | :13:49. | :13:52. | |
and with one foot in the EU and with one foot in the Middle East. Why? | :13:53. | :13:57. | |
Because Turkey is essentially important country, as a member of | :13:58. | :14:03. | |
Nato in dealing with Isil, Syria, Iraq and many other problems around | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
the world. But you will not make it by bringing them prematurely into | :14:09. | :14:12. | |
the European Union. What we should be doing is encouraging them to come | :14:13. | :14:17. | |
into the single market which has non-EU countries associated, but | :14:18. | :14:25. | |
without this issue of freedom of movement of Labour. You are Foreign | :14:26. | :14:33. | |
Secretary... Let me ask this question. You must surely know, that | :14:34. | :14:39. | |
Turkey's chances of joining the EU in the foreseeable future are | :14:40. | :14:44. | |
remote. Isn't that the reality? No, I think what was said by your | :14:45. | :14:47. | |
commentator earlier in the programmers that has been a change | :14:48. | :14:52. | |
of foreign policy. If the Prime Minister commits nine weeks ago to | :14:53. | :14:55. | |
speeding up Turkey's membership, and then does not deliver on it, what | :14:56. | :15:01. | |
will be the consequences? Turkey will feel they have been lied to or | :15:02. | :15:05. | |
rejected by the Europeans and they will, in my view, come out of Nato | :15:06. | :15:08. | |
with very profound consequences. At will, in my view, come out of Nato | :15:09. | :15:13. | |
the moment, let's treat Turkey with respect, let's try and ensure they | :15:14. | :15:16. | |
make the necessary changes on human rights and in many other areas. | :15:17. | :15:20. | |
There are a lot of worrying aspects about Turkish policy, but mention | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
above the European Union in my view is not the issue. It is how to make | :15:26. | :15:32. | |
them more committed to Europe. Don't avoid this question. If we are in | :15:33. | :15:37. | |
the European Union, we are committed to freedom of movement of Labour in | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
every aspect of EU membership. That is a problem. David Owen, thank you, | :15:43. | :15:44. | |
we will have to leave it there. The Confederation Of British | :15:45. | :15:48. | |
Industry calls itself the "voice of business", | :15:49. | :15:50. | |
claiming to speak on behalf of 190,000 businesses, | :15:51. | :15:52. | |
employing up to 7 million people. And according to the CBI, | :15:53. | :15:56. | |
British businesses overwhelmingly back the idea of remaining | :15:57. | :15:58. | |
in the EU. What's more, they've been | :15:59. | :16:00. | |
encouraging their members to talk to staff about the referendum | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
to give them "the choice to hear what impact a Brexit | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
would have on company growth, their jobs and their | :16:09. | :16:10. | |
local community". As you can imagine, Leave | :16:11. | :16:12. | |
campaigners are not amused. The chair of the Vote Leave business | :16:13. | :16:19. | |
council, John Longworth, a former director-general | :16:20. | :16:22. | |
of the British Chambers Of Commerce, said the call was an | :16:23. | :16:24. | |
"anti-democratic abuse of power He added: "It's highly regrettable | :16:25. | :16:26. | |
to see big corporate bosses plotting to gang up on their staff, | :16:27. | :16:33. | |
and lecture them on how to vote." Well, we're joined | :16:34. | :16:38. | |
now by the director general of the CBI, | :16:39. | :16:39. | |
Carolyn Fairbairn. Welcome to the programme. Good | :16:40. | :16:59. | |
morning. If big business told its workers how to vote in a general | :17:00. | :17:02. | |
election, there would be broad, so why are you encouraging your members | :17:03. | :17:04. | |
to warn their workers about the dangers of Brexit? That is not what | :17:05. | :17:07. | |
we have said. We have said that people working today in economy want | :17:08. | :17:09. | |
to hear from their employers about what it means on either side of the | :17:10. | :17:13. | |
debate. That is not what you said, you said what impact Brexit would | :17:14. | :17:17. | |
have on growth, jobs and the local community. Positive for negative. | :17:18. | :17:22. | |
You did not say that? It is clear this is not about warning anybody. | :17:23. | :17:26. | |
This is about the questions that people are now asking about what it | :17:27. | :17:30. | |
means for them. We were clean about that. Most of your members, you | :17:31. | :17:36. | |
claim, are in favour of staying in the European Union. The message | :17:37. | :17:40. | |
going out to the workforce will be overwhelmingly about remaining in | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
the EU. The main thing is that people who are going to vote on June | :17:45. | :17:49. | |
23 have as good an understanding as they possibly can about what it | :17:50. | :17:53. | |
means for their jobs, families and communities. That was the key | :17:54. | :17:59. | |
message, nothing about telling people how to vote. We learned this | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
week that one of your members, Circle, was planning uproar EU | :18:04. | :18:07. | |
campaign with the Prime Minister, even before the renegotiations were | :18:08. | :18:12. | |
finished. With the CBI or any of your members have similar | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
discussions with the government? To my knowledge, no. The conversations | :18:17. | :18:23. | |
that businesses, universities, all parts of our society have with | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
government go on every day. Were you planning the pro-union-mac campaign | :18:29. | :18:31. | |
with the government even before the renegotiations? No. But Circle was? | :18:32. | :18:39. | |
No. Everything the CBI has done is a result of the things we have done | :18:40. | :18:44. | |
and a half of our members. Circle has contracts with the government | :18:45. | :18:49. | |
worth several million pounds. The taxpayer pays for that. Its boss was | :18:50. | :18:54. | |
offering to help the Prime Minister do what he could to help keep | :18:55. | :18:59. | |
Britain in the EU. It was a behind closed doors stitch up between big | :19:00. | :19:02. | |
government and big business, wasn't it? The important thing is to | :19:03. | :19:08. | |
understand what businesses across the country of all sizes are seeing. | :19:09. | :19:14. | |
You're focusing on one company. What we are seeing is that the majority | :19:15. | :19:20. | |
of businesses want to stay in the European Union. I understand that. I | :19:21. | :19:27. | |
am asking you if the way this company has handled this... It | :19:28. | :19:30. | |
smells of a stitch up? I do not think this is a stitch up. It is | :19:31. | :19:35. | |
about voices of business being heard on issues of jobs, growth and the | :19:36. | :19:40. | |
future prosperity of our country. People can make their decisions on | :19:41. | :19:45. | |
polling day about a whole variety of factors, but businesses who are | :19:46. | :19:48. | |
trading with the European Union everyday, having their voices | :19:49. | :19:52. | |
clearly heard. The voice of this company was certainly clearly heard. | :19:53. | :20:02. | |
He saw the Prime Minister, Mr Soames. This is what he did in the | :20:03. | :20:05. | |
follow-up letter. He spoke about backing the prime and is to's | :20:06. | :20:08. | |
campaign to keep us in the EU. This is even though the renegotiations | :20:09. | :20:11. | |
were not finished. He went on to lobby for business. He said... He | :20:12. | :20:18. | |
wants more business at the same time. It really does add to the | :20:19. | :20:25. | |
sense that this is big business feathering its own nest. That is not | :20:26. | :20:29. | |
what is going on. There are conversations all the time. Why he | :20:30. | :20:34. | |
wise to do that, to lobby for more business at the same time as | :20:35. | :20:39. | |
lobbying to stay in the EU? I think there are conversations happening | :20:40. | :20:43. | |
all the time. Is that conversation appropriate? Those are questions for | :20:44. | :20:48. | |
other people. The CBI represents mainly businesses across the UK and | :20:49. | :20:52. | |
Europe picking on one. The important thing is the voices of the many are | :20:53. | :20:59. | |
heard in this. Are they heard? You give the impression you like the EU | :21:00. | :21:03. | |
because it is a one-stop club for big business. There are 30,000 | :21:04. | :21:06. | |
lobbyists in Brussels, most of them are doing for the interests of your | :21:07. | :21:12. | |
kind of members, the business. Ordinary folk do not get a look in? | :21:13. | :21:16. | |
I do not think that is true. We have had 20 business surveys since the | :21:17. | :21:20. | |
beginning of the year, for all different sizes of business, and it | :21:21. | :21:25. | |
is not unanimous, but they are all seeing broadly the same thing. We | :21:26. | :21:28. | |
have had the creative industries Forum coming out with the survey. | :21:29. | :21:34. | |
93%, because they are big exporters. This is not just big business. It is | :21:35. | :21:40. | |
all sizes of business. Let's look at how the EU is good for your members | :21:41. | :21:46. | |
but not necessarily the rest of us. The European Court of Justice has | :21:47. | :21:49. | |
forced Her Majesty is Customs and revenue to hand back almost ?8 | :21:50. | :21:56. | |
billion in tax paid by big British companies, overruling tax laws made | :21:57. | :21:58. | |
by our government and our Parliament. That is good for big | :21:59. | :22:04. | |
business but not public services? There are areas where we share | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
sovereignty, in order to have a level playing field across Europe | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
for businesses overall. We are not always going to like all of the | :22:13. | :22:16. | |
rules. It is a question of whether the benefits outweigh the costs. The | :22:17. | :22:21. | |
benefits to your members are clear, they are paying a billion less in | :22:22. | :22:28. | |
tax. The independent office of budget responsibility expected HMRC | :22:29. | :22:31. | |
to pay another 8 billion back by the end of the decade. This is about | :22:32. | :22:36. | |
lowering tax regimes and not allowing HMRC to get the proper tax. | :22:37. | :22:43. | |
That is not fear to ordinary people? To be clear, the CBI can businesses | :22:44. | :22:46. | |
overall do not support aggressive tax avoidance. We support the moves | :22:47. | :22:52. | |
that have been taken at the OECD level to sort this out. This is not | :22:53. | :22:59. | |
something we support. Your members will be 16 billion better off. | :23:00. | :23:04. | |
British schools, hospitals, public services, will be 16 billion worse | :23:05. | :23:09. | |
off. If the HMRC goes down in all these cases, we could be 40 billion | :23:10. | :23:16. | |
worse off. Good for big business, but not local hospitals? I do not | :23:17. | :23:19. | |
know the exact details of those numbers, but I would say that the | :23:20. | :23:25. | |
moves to improve tax policy are absolutely supported by members. The | :23:26. | :23:29. | |
CBI has been wrong about Britain in the EU in the past. Why should we | :23:30. | :23:35. | |
listen to you now? This is becoming a distraction. You are right that | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
when the euro was debated at the end of the 1980s, in principle, the CBI | :23:40. | :23:47. | |
had a principle of support with caveats. You supported the principle | :23:48. | :23:51. | |
of the European exchange mechanism. That ended in recession. Many people | :23:52. | :23:57. | |
lost their homes and jobs. You then became enthusiastic about UK | :23:58. | :24:01. | |
membership of the monetary union, the euro. I ask again, if you were | :24:02. | :24:08. | |
wrong then, why should we listen to you now? Two important points, if | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
you had continued to scroll down, you would seem that there were | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
caveats, conditions that had to be met. Conditions around harmonisation | :24:20. | :24:23. | |
of inflation and the economy. They were never met. By 2000 the CBI had | :24:24. | :24:29. | |
moved its position to neutral. The discussion we are having now is | :24:30. | :24:33. | |
about something very different. It is about the experience that we as | :24:34. | :24:38. | |
an economy have had the European Union for 43 years. We have thrived. | :24:39. | :24:41. | |
We have gone from being the sick man of Europe to being the strong man. | :24:42. | :24:47. | |
His Mrs are doing well. The benefit from being in a single market. The | :24:48. | :24:51. | |
euro was about something which people were imagining in the future, | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
a different debate. Let's come to the current debate. We saw your | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
stance on the euro then. You know think we would be better off if we | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
remain. That is the clear fight -- the clear-cut view of the CBI. You | :25:06. | :25:12. | |
commissioned an organisation to assess the impact of leaving the EU. | :25:13. | :25:18. | |
That is the result of the survey. If we remain, they think the economy | :25:19. | :25:26. | |
will grow by 41% by 2030. Even if we were to come out, the economy would | :25:27. | :25:31. | |
still grow by 39%, even if we did not have any free trade against, it | :25:32. | :25:37. | |
would grow by 36%. It is hardly game changing either way? We have | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
deliberately taken optimistic, balance and areas of the future. | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
You're right, economies recover and adapt. You have not shown the | :25:47. | :25:51. | |
short-term impact of several years of uncertainty. What we believe, and | :25:52. | :25:56. | |
many others believe as well, is there could be significant | :25:57. | :26:02. | |
short-term impacts, no sunlit uplands. You can get to 39%. Your | :26:03. | :26:08. | |
own study shows are economy would be almost 40% bigger by 2030, even if | :26:09. | :26:14. | |
we were to leave. That is if we do a trade deal with the US, if we are | :26:15. | :26:20. | |
able to form new relationships with the EU. These are optimistic | :26:21. | :26:25. | |
assumptions. Take the non-optimistic on, the World Trade Organisation. We | :26:26. | :26:30. | |
just trade on existing rules. It is 36%, it is still a massive rise. Of | :26:31. | :26:35. | |
course we would continue to grow. No one has ever said we would not | :26:36. | :26:40. | |
continue to grow. But will we be more prosperous? We would be 36% | :26:41. | :26:47. | |
more prosperous. In the short-term, by 2020, we estimate there would be | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
a million fewer jobs and 4-5% hate to GDP. Do we want to do that to | :26:53. | :26:58. | |
school leavers? We've just come out of recession. You accept that the | :26:59. | :27:01. | |
difference is not massive? It is entirely possible the economy would | :27:02. | :27:06. | |
adapt. But only with significant short-term impact, and particularly | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
an impact on the next generation of school leavers. The CBI claims that | :27:11. | :27:15. | |
each household benefits to the tune of six -- ?3000 a year. Observers | :27:16. | :27:22. | |
have condemned that as a dishonest figure. Do you stand by it? We do. | :27:23. | :27:29. | |
It was a literature sturdy of existing studies. We wanted to put | :27:30. | :27:35. | |
together a figure that was easy to understand. -- literature study. | :27:36. | :27:40. | |
Estimates like that are difficult to do. There was a range good around | :27:41. | :27:46. | |
it. To be clear, standards of living have doubled. That is since the UK | :27:47. | :27:52. | |
joined the European Union. They have gone from ?20,000 household income | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
to about ?40,000. We are seeing a proportion of that has been a result | :27:58. | :28:02. | |
of membership of the European Union, and independent studies would | :28:03. | :28:05. | |
support that. You did no original research for this at all. We never | :28:06. | :28:10. | |
claimed to. I have explained that to our viewers. You simply did a survey | :28:11. | :28:16. | |
of research papers. But when you look, you cherry picked the research | :28:17. | :28:24. | |
papers that had pro-union-mac inclusions. That is not true. I have | :28:25. | :28:28. | |
got the ones that you did not use, you omitted the IUD, you omitted the | :28:29. | :28:30. | |
National Institute for economic and social research. Even omitted the US | :28:31. | :28:36. | |
Trade Commission survey of what it meant, or to get this ?3000 figure. | :28:37. | :28:43. | |
You know tell me it is not accurate. That is not true. The evaluation we | :28:44. | :28:47. | |
did of the different surveys, we omitted as many on one side as the | :28:48. | :28:52. | |
other. There is a 20 page paper on this which anyone can go and read. | :28:53. | :28:57. | |
It sets out the methodology accurately. You seem to be biased | :28:58. | :29:00. | |
against those that did not come to the conclusion you want. Channel 4's | :29:01. | :29:07. | |
respected fact checked included, the figure is not based on any real | :29:08. | :29:12. | |
evidence. The chairman of the Treasury Select Committee described | :29:13. | :29:16. | |
it as a scandalous misuse of data and intellectually miss honest. We | :29:17. | :29:20. | |
went to him and we set out the facts. I do not think he had read | :29:21. | :29:25. | |
the paper. It is not intended to be anything other than an assessment of | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
consensus views over the last ten years. You did not include other | :29:30. | :29:39. | |
papers. The important thing is to be focusing on what this would mean for | :29:40. | :29:43. | |
the decision for the country. You're telling people that households would | :29:44. | :29:48. | |
be ?3000 a year worse off if we were to leave? That is not what we are | :29:49. | :29:54. | |
saying. Are you saying that we are ?3000 better off by remaining? As a | :29:55. | :29:59. | |
result of having joined, about 15% of the increase in living standards | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
over the time since joining is a result of being part of the European | :30:04. | :30:07. | |
Union. That is a reasonable thing to have said. Is the CBI still keen on | :30:08. | :30:11. | |
principle to join the euro? Absolutely not. | :30:12. | :30:17. | |
Would you welcome a further expansion of the EU to include the | :30:18. | :30:23. | |
five countries already in the queue? I think it has to depend on the | :30:24. | :30:27. | |
conditions at the time. The thing that is clear is we have a sovereign | :30:28. | :30:31. | |
choice over those additional countries. Turkey is a huge market, | :30:32. | :30:37. | |
it could be good for British business, would you welcome it? We | :30:38. | :30:41. | |
have not had that discussion with our members. We would have a | :30:42. | :30:51. | |
discussion at that time and have a point of view at that time. The CBI | :30:52. | :30:54. | |
welcomed both the Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty. Would you welcome a | :30:55. | :30:59. | |
further transfer of powers if we voted to remain? No. I think one | :31:00. | :31:03. | |
thing which is clear is we pool sovereignty when it is in the | :31:04. | :31:07. | |
benefits of our economy and we don't wear it is not. I would say one | :31:08. | :31:11. | |
thing, in terms of the opt out from the working Time directive, a very | :31:12. | :31:16. | |
important part of our special arrangement, if you like, of the | :31:17. | :31:20. | |
European Union, the CBI was fully part of and helped to negotiate. | :31:21. | :31:24. | |
Thank you. Depending on which polls you look | :31:25. | :31:27. | |
at, Britain is either scoffing at the idea of leaving the EU | :31:28. | :31:29. | |
or it's marching swiftly One telephone poll this week gave | :31:30. | :31:32. | |
Remain an eight point lead. An online poll, meanwhile, | :31:33. | :31:36. | |
gave it to Leave by four points. The problem is that both | :31:37. | :31:39. | |
those polls were done Our society and our electorate | :31:40. | :31:41. | |
is made up of unique individuals, every one of them different and yet | :31:42. | :31:50. | |
they share many attributes: gender, age, race, religion, | :31:51. | :31:52. | |
economic background, education, political views, | :31:53. | :31:55. | |
and social attitudes. Pollsters, therefore, | :31:56. | :32:02. | |
can only ever try to tell us terms of a specific question, | :32:03. | :32:06. | |
but it's only ever going to be a snapshot of wildly | :32:07. | :32:12. | |
interpretable data. That snapshot is simply a moment | :32:13. | :32:13. | |
in time, and is always, inevitably, slightly inaccurate | :32:14. | :32:17. | |
to varying degrees, and what makes | :32:18. | :32:20. | |
political polling even harder is it is like trying to | :32:21. | :32:23. | |
hit a moving target from a moving platform | :32:24. | :32:31. | |
in the And you would think in this EU | :32:32. | :32:32. | |
referendum the simplicity of the question would help, | :32:33. | :32:36. | |
should we leave It makes the whole thing | :32:37. | :32:38. | |
much more complicated. The problem is a slew of polls | :32:39. | :32:46. | |
giving very different signals. Given the problems | :32:47. | :32:49. | |
pollsters had getting the general election right, and some | :32:50. | :32:50. | |
of them didn't, this matters. Some have it neck and neck, | :32:51. | :32:56. | |
some Remain ahead, others ahead It is a minefield in | :32:57. | :32:58. | |
terms of working out When I apply different technical | :32:59. | :33:08. | |
methods to my raw data, I can move the Remain or Leave lead | :33:09. | :33:17. | |
in both directions. I tell you what, if I do not | :33:18. | :33:19. | |
know having done this opinion polling lark for 21 years, | :33:20. | :33:25. | |
I am not sure who does. Some of this is down to how | :33:26. | :33:28. | |
the polls are done, how they get a truly | :33:29. | :33:32. | |
representative sample of society in the first place, | :33:33. | :33:35. | |
either by phone or online panels. Which is best is a bone | :33:36. | :33:42. | |
of contention that in recent days has even | :33:43. | :33:44. | |
spilt onto social media, The problem is it has become | :33:45. | :33:46. | |
harder and harder to get Online samples are by their nature | :33:47. | :33:53. | |
self-selecting so have biases Phone samples used to be | :33:54. | :33:58. | |
considered far more representative, but in recent years, | :33:59. | :34:03. | |
the response rates to phone polls have dropped so low it is hard | :34:04. | :34:06. | |
now to consider them to be So both modes have an element | :34:07. | :34:09. | |
of self-selection. Can I ask you a few questions about | :34:10. | :34:13. | |
about yourself? Would you say you are likely to vote | :34:14. | :34:17. | |
or will definitely vote? Fewer of us use landlines | :34:18. | :34:20. | |
or want to be cold called, thus more calls then ever before | :34:21. | :34:26. | |
have to be made just to get But you do avoid those who, | :34:27. | :34:29. | |
with online polling, And phone contact through | :34:30. | :34:34. | |
persistence is better at eventually reaching those who are | :34:35. | :34:40. | |
harder to get hold of. Would it be all right | :34:41. | :34:44. | |
if we call you back later? There is a growing narrative | :34:45. | :34:50. | |
amongst some pollsters that phone polling | :34:51. | :34:56. | |
is probably the more accurate, which, | :34:57. | :34:58. | |
given recent phone polling We look at samples and try to check | :34:59. | :34:59. | |
them to see we have the right number of people who vote, | :35:00. | :35:07. | |
do we believe that all the people | :35:08. | :35:09. | |
in our sample who tell us they're going to vote actually | :35:10. | :35:12. | |
will, are we missing people who really just do not care | :35:13. | :35:13. | |
about the referendum referendum and aren't going to vote, | :35:14. | :35:20. | |
are we missing the great unwashed who do | :35:21. | :35:22. | |
not have degrees? All those things, | :35:23. | :35:24. | |
when we make adjustments for all of those things, Remain is | :35:25. | :35:26. | |
still ahead. We would have to be very, | :35:27. | :35:28. | |
very wrong indeed for Remain, at the moment, on the | :35:29. | :35:31. | |
polling so far, not to win this Online pollsters, who use panels | :35:32. | :35:34. | |
of signed up people, are perhaps not surprisingly | :35:35. | :35:37. | |
pointing to weaknesses So much so that the online pollsters | :35:38. | :35:39. | |
YouGov have conducted some phone polling | :35:40. | :35:43. | |
about phone polling. What we found from that comparison, | :35:44. | :35:49. | |
both to the national picture and to our online polls, | :35:50. | :35:52. | |
was that telephone polls were underestimating the people | :35:53. | :35:56. | |
who are not university educated, and that is | :35:57. | :35:59. | |
hugely important in the EU referendum because we know | :36:00. | :36:03. | |
that is one of the great social cleavages, in other words, | :36:04. | :36:05. | |
one of the great things that divides So phone polls are missing | :36:06. | :36:08. | |
potential Leave voters. Online are accused | :36:09. | :36:11. | |
of overstating them, there are two other that vital: | :36:12. | :36:18. | |
are are you going to vote? Turnout will be | :36:19. | :36:27. | |
crucial on June 23rd. The higher it is the more it favours | :36:28. | :36:28. | |
Remain, and what happens when the mass of "don't | :36:29. | :36:31. | |
knows" make up their mind? With more questions and mixed | :36:32. | :36:34. | |
answers, and four weeks to go, | :36:35. | :36:35. | |
most pollsters might reasonably fear | :36:36. | :36:38. | |
the result of a poll that asked us all, | :36:39. | :36:40. | |
"Do pollsters really have a It's just gone 11.35, | :36:41. | :36:42. | |
you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers | :36:43. | :36:50. | |
in Scotland who leave us now Good morning and welcome | :36:51. | :36:58. | |
to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme: | :36:59. | :37:00. | |
John Swinney will be talking to us about the challenges of his new role | :37:01. | :37:03. | |
as Education Secretary. To make sure that we close the | :37:04. | :37:20. | |
attainment gap. To ensure that we fulfil our commitment to the | :37:21. | :37:23. | |
What are the key issues in the EU referendum? | :37:24. | :37:27. | |
We ask a leading academic for his view. | :37:28. | :37:28. | |
And do the campaigners for Leave and Remain agree? | :37:29. | :37:31. | |
The new Education Secretary, John Swinney, set out his priorities | :37:32. | :37:33. | |
when he visited his old school on Friday. | :37:34. | :37:36. | |
The focus for the Scottish Government is on reducing | :37:37. | :37:40. | |
the attainment gap in Scottish schools. | :37:41. | :37:41. | |
Mr Swinney says funding is already in place, | :37:42. | :37:43. | |
but more needs to be done to improve the chances of pupils | :37:44. | :37:47. | |
But critics say that under the SNP the gulf has widened, | :37:48. | :37:51. | |
and more needs to be spent on early years education. | :37:52. | :37:54. | |
If you've ever been the new kid in class you will know who don think it | :37:55. | :38:15. | |
can be. Good morning. How are you doing? Trying to make friends well | :38:16. | :38:22. | |
keeping the teachers happy is not easy and that is the challenge John | :38:23. | :38:28. | |
Swinney faces, this week taking charge of Scotland's's education | :38:29. | :38:34. | |
system at a crucial time. At the moment SNP ministers say things are | :38:35. | :38:36. | |
system at a crucial time. At the good but not good enough. They want | :38:37. | :38:40. | |
Scotland's education system to be the best in the world. We will make | :38:41. | :38:46. | |
sure that young people have the opportunity regardless of | :38:47. | :38:49. | |
background, to further and higher education. This is what I will | :38:50. | :38:54. | |
concentrate on taking forward. The Government has set its sights on | :38:55. | :38:59. | |
closing what is known as the attainment gap between pupils from | :39:00. | :39:02. | |
the most and least deprived backgrounds. The First Minister has | :39:03. | :39:07. | |
made it her mission. Improving school attainment is arguably the | :39:08. | :39:11. | |
single most important objective in this programme for Government. | :39:12. | :39:15. | |
Improving its overall and closing the gap between children in most and | :39:16. | :39:23. | |
least deprived areas is fundamental. My aim to put it bluntly as to cause | :39:24. | :39:28. | |
that attainment gap. Not by a pit but to calls that attainment gap | :39:29. | :39:33. | |
completely. It will not be done overnight, I accept that, but that | :39:34. | :39:37. | |
must be done. We intend to make significant | :39:38. | :39:41. | |
progress on closing the attainment gap within the next parliament and | :39:42. | :39:44. | |
to substantially eliminate it with than a decade and that is a | :39:45. | :39:51. | |
commitment I ask to be judged on. But the Scottish Government as where | :39:52. | :39:57. | |
that there is no magic formula for closing the gap and education | :39:58. | :39:59. | |
experts say there is lot to consider. Our least advantaged | :40:00. | :40:06. | |
children, only 60% of them are doing well or doing very well at this too, | :40:07. | :40:11. | |
with as 90% of the richer pupils are doing well. It is a big attainment | :40:12. | :40:18. | |
gap. It is likely that that gap comes out of a lot of small | :40:19. | :40:23. | |
inequalities and is the cumulative effect of that rather than any one | :40:24. | :40:27. | |
big thing. We know that schools on their own are not responsible for | :40:28. | :40:31. | |
the gap that actually schools work with other agencies, they could make | :40:32. | :40:37. | |
a difference to closing it. But as the Government embarks on its big | :40:38. | :40:41. | |
plan to do exactly that conservatives head girl for | :40:42. | :40:45. | |
education says things have actually been getting worse. We have not had | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
enough focus on the basic skills. One of the things that the | :40:51. | :40:53. | |
Conservative Party argues strongly is that when it comes to teacher | :40:54. | :40:57. | |
training those who are going to that process have said that they wanted | :40:58. | :41:01. | |
more focus on the ability to teach children to read, write and count | :41:02. | :41:05. | |
properly and that is hugely important. John Swinney says he is | :41:06. | :41:09. | |
aware of the challenge ahead and official figures last year showed a | :41:10. | :41:12. | |
drop in the touristy standards in some areas, the message is, must do | :41:13. | :41:15. | |
better. Listening to that in our Dundee | :41:16. | :41:17. | |
studio is the new Cabinet Secretary Are you excited by this job you have | :41:18. | :41:31. | |
taken on or are you feeling a bit daunted by it? A bit of both. I am | :41:32. | :41:37. | |
excited by the challenge and the opportunity I have been given to | :41:38. | :41:41. | |
read a process of change and development in education, to work to | :41:42. | :41:45. | |
make Scottish education world class. But I go into this with my eyes wide | :41:46. | :41:50. | |
open. There are some significant challenges that have to be addressed | :41:51. | :41:54. | |
and I want to deploy my energy and my skill to take that forward. I am | :41:55. | :42:00. | |
hugely excited by it. I am thrilled with the opportunity to be Education | :42:01. | :42:02. | |
Secretary but I do not underestimate the scale of the | :42:03. | :42:24. | |
challenge. You are used to dealing with finance. It is all hard | :42:25. | :42:26. | |
numbers. You either have a budget deficit or you do not. You set a | :42:27. | :42:29. | |
budget. You have all the targets. But closing the attainment gap in | :42:30. | :42:31. | |
education is a much less precise thing, as it's not? The danger is | :42:32. | :42:35. | |
that will feel like you are pushing a piece of string. The attainment | :42:36. | :42:37. | |
gap is measurable. We have got your measurements. But in the package | :42:38. | :42:43. | |
that you just short, the professor said the attainment gap would not be | :42:44. | :42:46. | |
caused by one single instrument but by a variety of different measures | :42:47. | :42:51. | |
that we take. At the key thing is that we have absolute clarity that | :42:52. | :42:55. | |
the purpose of my approach as Education Secretary is to close that | :42:56. | :43:00. | |
attainment gap. That becomes the most central part of the education | :43:01. | :43:05. | |
direction and Scotland. What are we talking about? It is not clear even | :43:06. | :43:12. | |
what we are starting with year. A lot of people have talked about the | :43:13. | :43:16. | |
attainment gap being the number of people from relatively background to | :43:17. | :43:20. | |
get to university. Is that what you mean? I mean that's the attainment | :43:21. | :43:29. | |
gap becomes clear from the youngest ages of young people within | :43:30. | :43:35. | |
Scotland. From the start of primary school that is clear that children | :43:36. | :43:38. | |
from the most deprived backgrounds compare two children from the least | :43:39. | :43:43. | |
deprived backgrounds are significantly disadvantaged even at | :43:44. | :43:47. | |
that stage of their progress in education. I need to focus on making | :43:48. | :43:51. | |
sure that all of us who take forward the work to support young people | :43:52. | :43:54. | |
within Scotland from the very earliest stages, all of that is | :43:55. | :44:00. | |
going -- not all of that will be in the schools, some of it will be in | :44:01. | :44:04. | |
community services and health care. But we are focused on the earliest | :44:05. | :44:15. | |
stages of making sure that. And the various stages during the | :44:16. | :44:18. | |
educational clear we have to take steps to make sure we close that | :44:19. | :44:21. | |
educational clear we have to take gap. But just to be clear on this, | :44:22. | :44:25. | |
Nicola Sturgeon has said not just that she wants her Government to be | :44:26. | :44:29. | |
judged on progress and this but she wants herself as First Minister to | :44:30. | :44:33. | |
be judged. When you see close the attainment gap are you saying you | :44:34. | :44:37. | |
want measurable benchmarks and that it is not just about the number of | :44:38. | :44:42. | |
people from deprived backgrounds getting into university? You seem to | :44:43. | :44:48. | |
be suggesting that you want a series of benchmarks that every stage | :44:49. | :44:53. | |
throughout their school career, for example at the end of primary seven, | :44:54. | :45:03. | |
third-year, but the gap is closing. There is that what you are saying? | :45:04. | :45:07. | |
If you look at the National improvement framework published in | :45:08. | :45:11. | |
January that is what we set out? We set out the desire to make sure that | :45:12. | :45:15. | |
at these stages in the educational clear of young people in Scotland we | :45:16. | :45:20. | |
are able to see whether or not the attainment gap is narrowing or | :45:21. | :45:27. | |
growing. We have discussed drab statistics for many years. These are | :45:28. | :45:34. | |
not drab statistics. These are lives. Exciting statistics, do not | :45:35. | :45:39. | |
do yourself down. These are about the life chances of people in | :45:40. | :45:44. | |
Scotland and cannot be anything more significant or precious than | :45:45. | :45:46. | |
transforming the life chances of children in our country. We cannot | :45:47. | :45:50. | |
afford to leave it until young people are 17 or 18 to find out how | :45:51. | :45:55. | |
many of them go to university. We have to be able to arrest that and | :45:56. | :45:59. | |
intervene in that at a much earlier stage. That is why we put such | :46:00. | :46:05. | |
emphasis on the expansion of early years education and childcare within | :46:06. | :46:08. | |
Scotland, that we begin to tackle some of these difficulties as early | :46:09. | :46:14. | |
we possibly can. On Friday I spent an marvellous amount of time in a | :46:15. | :46:19. | |
primary school in Edinburgh where I saw some two-year-olds involved in | :46:20. | :46:24. | |
nursery education in Scotland, our youngest citizens, coming from | :46:25. | :46:28. | |
deprived backgrounds, getting well supported and nurtured and | :46:29. | :46:32. | |
encouraged and motivated and it was fantastic to watch the efforts that | :46:33. | :46:35. | |
were put in to try to transform the life chances of these young | :46:36. | :46:39. | |
individuals in Scotland. Before you start doing things, what is your | :46:40. | :46:45. | |
analysis? Figures show that people from deprived backgrounds in | :46:46. | :46:50. | |
Scotland, well in England, are twice as likely to go to university than | :46:51. | :46:54. | |
in Scotland and in Wales and Northern Ireland the figures again | :46:55. | :46:58. | |
are much better than in Scotland. Scotland appears to be lagging in | :46:59. | :47:02. | |
that department considerably and progress seems to be slower than in | :47:03. | :47:06. | |
England. Why is anyone doing so much better? The key thing is that | :47:07. | :47:12. | |
performance industry spec is improving in Scotland. Young people | :47:13. | :47:14. | |
are more likely to go to university from deprived backgrounds. Why the | :47:15. | :47:21. | |
gap? The gap is there as a product of the issues in the attainment gap | :47:22. | :47:25. | |
that perfectly all the way through the system within Scotland. That is | :47:26. | :47:29. | |
why I said in my previous answer it is important... Why should England | :47:30. | :47:36. | |
be doing so much better? Ultimately the answers lie for Scotland in | :47:37. | :47:41. | |
ensuring that we have a very strong teaching profession with high | :47:42. | :47:45. | |
quality teaching, close connections between schools and the wider | :47:46. | :47:50. | |
community, and families in particular, so that families are | :47:51. | :47:53. | |
involved in the learning process, and it is vital that they | :47:54. | :47:57. | |
concentrate on having clear and effective and by night leadership | :47:58. | :48:00. | |
throughout the education system within Scotland. In those three | :48:01. | :48:05. | |
areas, quality of the teaching profession, the role of families and | :48:06. | :48:09. | |
community within education, importance of leadership, these will | :48:10. | :48:12. | |
be the key questions that I would cut in the early stages, that I | :48:13. | :48:16. | |
discussed with the broad range of stakeholders that there are thin the | :48:17. | :48:19. | |
system in Scotland, to make sure that we use all of our energies to | :48:20. | :48:24. | |
tackle what is clearly a unified objective of everybody in education | :48:25. | :48:28. | |
that I have heard talking about that, the closing of the attainment | :48:29. | :48:32. | |
gap and Scott, and that will be my central mission in the course of the | :48:33. | :48:36. | |
next parliamentary term. The new national tests that you intend to | :48:37. | :48:41. | |
produce, I presumed it will be standardised across all schools? | :48:42. | :48:49. | |
Yes. They will be marked externally? What we are involved in discussion | :48:50. | :48:52. | |
about is how we can deliver standardised assessments so that we | :48:53. | :48:58. | |
can see in a much richer and deeper way the comparisons of educational | :48:59. | :49:00. | |
performance between individuals and between areas and between schools, | :49:01. | :49:06. | |
so that we can understand how we can best intervene to support the | :49:07. | :49:09. | |
so that we can understand how we can development of young people within | :49:10. | :49:12. | |
Scotland. We are involved in a conversation about how assessments | :49:13. | :49:16. | |
can be taken forward. I am determined to take forward in our | :49:17. | :49:20. | |
fashion that does not add to the workload of the teaching profession | :49:21. | :49:24. | |
but actually simplifies the workload of the teaching profession, and that | :49:25. | :49:29. | |
they do this in a fashion that we obtain meaningful comparisons about | :49:30. | :49:32. | |
performance in different areas, so that we can see the necessary | :49:33. | :49:41. | |
actions. I understand the point you are making but a lot of parents | :49:42. | :49:44. | |
watching this will take the view that these have to be marked | :49:45. | :49:50. | |
externally. You cannot have teachers marking the results of their own | :49:51. | :49:54. | |
students or we're not going to have a proper system where we can measure | :49:55. | :49:57. | |
the performance of schools across Scotland. Again I ask you, will be | :49:58. | :50:03. | |
marked externally? Fundamentally qualifications framework of Scott | :50:04. | :50:10. | |
and is independently taken forward. I have no intention of changing that | :50:11. | :50:16. | |
position. I have no intention of directing attention away from the | :50:17. | :50:21. | |
importance of independent certification of qualifications | :50:22. | :50:21. | |
within Scotland. I understand that but it is a very | :50:22. | :50:32. | |
simple question of whether these new test will be marked externally, it | :50:33. | :50:36. | |
is a straightforward question. It will feed from age to age. When we | :50:37. | :50:40. | |
are looking at standardised assessments which will be taken in | :50:41. | :50:46. | |
primary one classes within Scotland I do not see the need for those to | :50:47. | :50:53. | |
be independently... Give me a little bit of time to work out specifically | :50:54. | :50:58. | |
the detail of how we will take that forward, Gordon, because you are | :50:59. | :51:02. | |
asking me to go to a very precise point and I am not prepared to go | :51:03. | :51:08. | |
there just days into the job of being the Education Secretary. I am | :51:09. | :51:10. | |
setting out the importance of understanding the relative and | :51:11. | :51:14. | |
comparative forms of individuals so we can use that information to | :51:15. | :51:17. | |
support improvements with improvements required to be made. I | :51:18. | :51:22. | |
think that is a well understood principle to make sure every young | :51:23. | :51:26. | |
person in Scotland gets the education they deserve. Pavements | :51:27. | :51:29. | |
will be given the results of these tests, will be, in an informative | :51:30. | :51:34. | |
way so they can know about your child. There have been all these | :51:35. | :51:37. | |
worries about league tables but the other side of this is that it will | :51:38. | :51:42. | |
use this sensibly so you can take schools with similar intakes and | :51:43. | :51:46. | |
some might be doing better than others, will pavements be given data | :51:47. | :51:50. | |
so the norm not just how dear child is doing but whether there school | :51:51. | :51:54. | |
might be doing better than other schools with similar intakes in the | :51:55. | :52:00. | |
area, or worse? Parents getting a lot of information about the | :52:01. | :52:03. | |
educational performance of their children. I am the parent of a five | :52:04. | :52:07. | |
on child in the primary education system in Scotland and we get a | :52:08. | :52:11. | |
tremendous amount of information from the school about the | :52:12. | :52:16. | |
performance of our son, and he is developing, the challenges he has | :52:17. | :52:18. | |
and the performance of the school in general so of course that will be | :52:19. | :52:22. | |
done in a transparent fashion but the key thing is that has to be done | :52:23. | :52:26. | |
in a consistent fashion we can see where there are steps to be required | :52:27. | :52:30. | |
to improve performance in different parts of the country to ensure no | :52:31. | :52:34. | |
young person in Scotland is unable to prosper through the education | :52:35. | :52:39. | |
system anyway it would be useful for them to do so. Dean is a threat, not | :52:40. | :52:46. | |
necessarily of strike action but of work to rule or some form of | :52:47. | :52:50. | |
industrial action from the EIS over the workload issue, have you managed | :52:51. | :52:57. | |
to head that off yet? I have only been in the office for four days so | :52:58. | :53:02. | |
I have not been able to get there yet but I want to have meaningful | :53:03. | :53:05. | |
discussions with the whole range of stakeholders. I see to everyone you | :53:06. | :53:13. | |
have people prepared to listen to the issues and challenges. My issue | :53:14. | :53:21. | |
is to close the attainment gap in Scottish education. I do not think | :53:22. | :53:24. | |
of a better aim to have and I am immensely privileged to have that. | :53:25. | :53:28. | |
Just give me a little space and time to deliver on these issues and my | :53:29. | :53:34. | |
top by auditing. I can't believe you sat there and said all the stats you | :53:35. | :53:37. | |
have been talking to us about 14 new tab in drab but who you are. We have | :53:38. | :53:43. | |
undoubtedly been drab but made more drab by our conversations! | :53:44. | :53:50. | |
One bookmakers cut the odds yesterday for a UK vote to remain | :53:51. | :53:52. | |
But whether people vote to remain or to leave the EU, | :53:53. | :53:57. | |
a leading academic says there are four significant issues | :53:58. | :53:59. | |
Professor Michael Keating, of the University of Aberdeen, | :54:00. | :54:02. | |
and Director of the Centre for Constitutional Change, | :54:03. | :54:04. | |
is in our Edinburgh studio to explain. | :54:05. | :54:10. | |
Hopefully without any drab statistics! Michael Keating, let's | :54:11. | :54:17. | |
just go through them in order and see where we are. The first thing | :54:18. | :54:23. | |
you see is the economy now there is a widespread perception that the | :54:24. | :54:27. | |
Remain people have pretty much one the argument about that and the | :54:28. | :54:32. | |
Leave people are keen to talk about absolutely anything else, especially | :54:33. | :54:36. | |
immigration, is that your view? There have been a lot of things | :54:37. | :54:40. | |
bandied about on both sides of this debate about whether or not we will | :54:41. | :54:45. | |
be better off in or out and the fact is we do not know. Economics is not | :54:46. | :54:50. | |
a precise signs of prediction. It depends what assumptions you make, | :54:51. | :54:54. | |
what policy decisions are made and what the options are for remaining | :54:55. | :55:00. | |
in or coming out, they are multiple. It is far easier to focus on the | :55:01. | :55:04. | |
single market, the arrangement we have with the European Union which | :55:05. | :55:09. | |
allows for a free movement of goods, services, capital and Labour and | :55:10. | :55:13. | |
whether we really need that arrangement. Remain see we need that | :55:14. | :55:20. | |
a deep trading arrangement with the rest of the European Union and | :55:21. | :55:23. | |
therefore we have to accept everything that goes with it. The | :55:24. | :55:27. | |
Leave people are divided, some say we could keep the free single market | :55:28. | :55:32. | |
because we need it and others say we could manage perfectly well without | :55:33. | :55:36. | |
it. Your article was really about what has to be focused on. You think | :55:37. | :55:42. | |
the Leave people need to come up with one additive about what would | :55:43. | :55:45. | |
happen if we vote to leave rather than these mutually exclusive | :55:46. | :55:50. | |
narratives which they have at the moment? That only people would want | :55:51. | :55:55. | |
to know that. One is the normally option that is you keep the single | :55:56. | :55:59. | |
market but you have to accept all the rules of the single market, you | :56:00. | :56:04. | |
do not have any say in making all these rules. The other option is to | :56:05. | :56:05. | |
not have the special arrangement these rules. The other option is to | :56:06. | :56:10. | |
with Europe. Trade on the single market under the trade organisation | :56:11. | :56:14. | |
and go it on our own. Those are different options. Both of them are | :56:15. | :56:19. | |
viable. Owing it alone, coming out of the European single market, would | :56:20. | :56:25. | |
require changes in our economic structure such as New Zealand went | :56:26. | :56:29. | |
through 30 years or so ago but they are very viable but I think people | :56:30. | :56:32. | |
would want to know what is the option without going to get? | :56:33. | :56:38. | |
Sovereignty is one of the other issues you identified, isn't it? You | :56:39. | :56:42. | |
think that is one where perhaps Leave have the advantage because | :56:43. | :56:46. | |
they can say whichever way you cut this up, whichever way you dice this | :56:47. | :56:51. | |
Britain will have more sovereignty inside the EU than outside it? It | :56:52. | :56:55. | |
would because it would not have too but they things that were political | :56:56. | :57:02. | |
in this country but if we want to get the single market we have to | :57:03. | :57:05. | |
accept the single market rules which gets us back to Norway and | :57:06. | :57:10. | |
Switzerland which are formerly sovereign but have two up by single | :57:11. | :57:13. | |
market rules so they really have no choice in the matter. Immigration | :57:14. | :57:17. | |
which flows directly from that because if you are part of the | :57:18. | :57:21. | |
single market you would in fact have to accept free movement of Labour | :57:22. | :57:27. | |
but immigration, it is one of these big emotional issues in this debate, | :57:28. | :57:33. | |
isn't it? Yes, and we have two separate the general issue of | :57:34. | :57:36. | |
migration from the question of Europe the membership and the free | :57:37. | :57:40. | |
movement of workers which is due to the European Union. A migration | :57:41. | :57:46. | |
crisis, movement from outside the euro in union, this is another | :57:47. | :57:50. | |
matter. One of the things David Cameron was told very firmly when he | :57:51. | :57:54. | |
started his renegotiation was the principle of free movement of | :57:55. | :57:58. | |
workers within the European Union is untouchable. If you want to have the | :57:59. | :58:01. | |
rest of the free market, the single market you have to have that and | :58:02. | :58:05. | |
Switzerland tried to reach this and was told in no uncertain terms you | :58:06. | :58:10. | |
cannot do it. Only any cleaner really about the issues after weeks | :58:11. | :58:15. | |
of hearing that both sides work beating each other over the heads | :58:16. | :58:18. | |
and insulting each other than be read at the beginning? These are | :58:19. | :58:23. | |
complex issues. These are extremely complex issues. I think we were | :58:24. | :58:27. | |
getting close to the issue two three weeks ago folks on the single | :58:28. | :58:31. | |
market, migration, issues of sovereignty but recently and we have | :58:32. | :58:35. | |
still a month to go, both sides have been producing some while addictions | :58:36. | :58:42. | |
as to what can happen taking it well beyond the issues of integration | :58:43. | :58:44. | |
itself and the European Union talking about a terrorism, third | :58:45. | :58:50. | |
World wards and so on. It is starting to confuse the electorate. | :58:51. | :58:54. | |
Brian Montieth from the Leave EU campaign is in our Edinburgh | :58:55. | :58:56. | |
studio and John Edward from Scotland Stronger in Europe | :58:57. | :58:58. | |
Is it your view, John Edward, that the economy is your strongest suit? | :58:59. | :59:11. | |
It is one of the strongest suits certainly because that is what an | :59:12. | :59:14. | |
economic community and the single market was all about and where we | :59:15. | :59:17. | |
are fairly clear that staying in this status quo gives us access and | :59:18. | :59:21. | |
trade across the 20 member states and one thing we about on the Leave | :59:22. | :59:26. | |
side is either is no blueprint and the White Paper. It seems to us that | :59:27. | :59:30. | |
everyone is out of step except our job and all the international bodies | :59:31. | :59:34. | |
and mean allies suggest for trading purposes and servers as it would be | :59:35. | :59:37. | |
good to stay in and I think we are probably on the right of that. Ryan | :59:38. | :59:41. | |
McGeever from your own point of view and you think it is important | :59:42. | :59:43. | |
McGeever from your own point of view Leave side get a single narrative on | :59:44. | :59:49. | |
what exactly it is they want us to do if we leave the European Union | :59:50. | :59:53. | |
because as Michael Keating was pointing out the various options | :59:54. | :59:56. | |
being pursued at the moment are mutually exclusive. Absolutely not. | :59:57. | :00:02. | |
I think it would be a big mistake of the Leave campaign to have a single | :00:03. | :00:07. | |
narrative. We saw in the referendum campaign for Scotland having a | :00:08. | :00:12. | |
single narrative it became a target to be taken down. It was a wicker | :00:13. | :00:17. | |
man that was eventually burnt to senders. I think what has to be | :00:18. | :00:23. | |
explained as that one be bought to leave we gain that sense of | :00:24. | :00:27. | |
sovereignty, that sense of taking control of our destiny and at that | :00:28. | :00:30. | |
point we can negotiate and decide what our narrative can become so it | :00:31. | :00:34. | |
is not for the weak campaigners to dig 18 additive to actually put | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
forward what the opportunities are dig 18 additive to actually put | :00:37. | :00:43. | |
that they can offer us and while I think that is what they should be | :00:44. | :00:46. | |
doing I would like to see them doing more of it cause I think they have | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
in court on the back foot in the economy and they do need to try a | :00:51. | :00:54. | |
lot harder on it. We do have the arguments. Immigration, John Edward, | :00:55. | :00:59. | |
that is an argument with the remains I guileless, four double closet is | :01:00. | :01:04. | |
all very well saying if we left we would still have to have the | :01:05. | :01:08. | |
movement of Labour but that does not get you pass the point that if we | :01:09. | :01:12. | |
vote to remain the most certainly will have the movement of Labour and | :01:13. | :01:15. | |
that is the thing that troubles many of the people who want to vote to | :01:16. | :01:21. | |
get out? We will have free movement of Labour, of course, which is not | :01:22. | :01:26. | |
the same as free movement of people. People who want to come here to work | :01:27. | :01:30. | |
have to have a job to come to and it is exactly the same for British | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
people who expect the same level of protection when they go overseas to | :01:34. | :01:37. | |
work at it is important we do not allow people to complete this with | :01:38. | :01:42. | |
the historic issue up people on the move from Syria which is a | :01:43. | :01:44. | |
once-in-a-lifetime problem which we have to do with whether we are in | :01:45. | :01:48. | |
Europe or out of it but a free market is something I thought a | :01:49. | :01:53. | |
country like Scotland, very reliant on services, should be supportive of | :01:54. | :01:58. | |
and we might talk for the best any situation where the double tear | :01:59. | :02:01. | |
itself there's it would take years to negotiate a position. It seems an | :02:02. | :02:07. | |
odd way to look forward. Under European law you have to have a | :02:08. | :02:09. | |
odd way to look forward. Under to come here is not strictly true, | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
it is not true at all, John Edward? The right of free movement applies | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
to workers so you have the right to come here at if you're expecting the | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
Social Security and benefits that come with what you have to have a | :02:23. | :02:30. | |
job to come to. It is that simple. It was the same for construction | :02:31. | :02:33. | |
workers going to Germany in the 1980s. Brian Menteith. The migration | :02:34. | :02:42. | |
issue is important in Scotland. I can assure you the people I know who | :02:43. | :02:45. | |
are doing public meetings are and down the country have been surprised | :02:46. | :02:50. | |
to find at these meetings what is raised that they do not expect to be | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
raised is the migrant, economic migrant issue. From Orkney and | :02:55. | :02:58. | |
Shetland, Inverness, areas you might think being on the polyphony of | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
Scotland never mind Europe, it is raised. Raised not as an issue of | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
race or religion but he will have great concerns about the stress is | :03:09. | :03:11. | |
placed on public services and that is why it comes up. Sovereignty, | :03:12. | :03:21. | |
Brian Menteith, a big issue, how do you reply to the point you are in | :03:22. | :03:25. | |
favour of staying in Natal. As part of Nato we would be committed to | :03:26. | :03:29. | |
actually going to war under certain conditions because of that alliance | :03:30. | :03:34. | |
and in the world we would pull sovereignty and the sovereignty we | :03:35. | :03:37. | |
would pool in the European Union is potentially much less catastrophic | :03:38. | :03:46. | |
than the sovereignty we rule through ordinations -- organisations like | :03:47. | :03:52. | |
Natal. I think the main concern is that what has happened in regard to | :03:53. | :03:55. | |
the creation of our laws and the overseeing of our laws such as | :03:56. | :04:01. | |
minimum pricing of alcohol, we have lost the power to create our own | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
laws. That was finally to the European court of justice so there | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
is an issue the in comparison to the security which Nato has divided and | :04:11. | :04:16. | |
that cataclysmic safeguard that you are illustrating has protected us | :04:17. | :04:22. | |
but do we need that type of pooling of sovereignty to have rules about | :04:23. | :04:32. | |
the pricing of whiskey, vodka, or Buckfast and Scottish shops? I don't | :04:33. | :04:33. | |
think so. This is a line I have heard a few | :04:34. | :04:49. | |
times in the last few weeks. What the European Court said it is not | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
for them to decide if this is the best way for the Scottish | :04:53. | :04:56. | |
Government, but the suggestion they put forward is that there are other | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
ways than taxation. They passed it back to the national courts. Brian | :05:02. | :05:05. | |
can chuckle all he wants but he knows that to be true. The fact that | :05:06. | :05:12. | |
it even reached the European courts is the point. There is an equal | :05:13. | :05:17. | |
standard of law across Europe. That is what makes it different from | :05:18. | :05:22. | |
Nato. Brian and myself and everybody else has access to the law and its | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
protections. It is easy to laugh at this as regulation but it matters to | :05:29. | :05:33. | |
people's lives. Brian, if you had a different hat on, you would be | :05:34. | :05:39. | |
saying that the SNP only wants minimum pricing because they do not | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
have powers over taxation of alcohol. Of course they would like | :05:44. | :05:46. | |
them because they would like independence but what they are doing | :05:47. | :05:51. | |
is trying to get power through the back door. He would be sneering at | :05:52. | :05:54. | |
them rather than come cleaning about the European union. I have no love | :05:55. | :06:07. | |
for the European union -- I have no love for minimum pricing, but I | :06:08. | :06:12. | |
think it should be taken by Scottish politicians who are accountable. It | :06:13. | :06:14. | |
think it should be taken by Scottish should not need to be referred as it | :06:15. | :06:20. | |
has been with those interested in spirit production, to the European | :06:21. | :06:24. | |
Court. We should have our own sovereignty to defend that. | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
Time to review the past week and look ahead to what's coming | :06:29. | :06:30. | |
Joining me now is David Clegg, the Political Editor | :06:31. | :06:37. | |
at the Daily Record, and Kieran Andrews, | :06:38. | :06:38. | |
David, education, what did you make of what John Swinney was seeing? The | :06:39. | :06:54. | |
most striking thing was that he was quite candid about the scale of the | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
challenge facing him. To be honest he is underplaying it even by doing | :07:00. | :07:05. | |
that. The attainment gap is very big already. It appears to be growing. | :07:06. | :07:11. | |
There does not seem to be any idea of putting more resources in. The | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
main thing you need is more teachers and smaller class sizes but that | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
does not seem to be figuring too heavy on the radar. The other thing | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
that I thought was interesting, it has not been clear up until now, | :07:25. | :07:33. | |
they have staked their reputation on, it is clear they want outcomes | :07:34. | :07:42. | |
at each stage in a child's progress including if they get into | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
university, which is increasing the standards that they need to be | :07:47. | :07:50. | |
judged successfully. It is a neat way of standardised testing which is | :07:51. | :07:56. | |
proving controversial as a policy from the SNP. And if teachers are | :07:57. | :08:07. | |
having to mark these papers as well as teach their classes day to day | :08:08. | :08:13. | |
and do whatever else, it is not a nine until half past three job, | :08:14. | :08:19. | |
having to mark tests will put more strain on the teacher profession and | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
cause more headaches for John Swinney down the line. The real | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
issue with testing is that these things to be credible have to be | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
externally marked. Perhaps not in primary one and primary for, but he | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
seems to concede the point that in primary seven and S3 they have to | :08:40. | :08:50. | |
be. There is also a confused message because there will be subjective | :08:51. | :08:52. | |
teacher view taken into account as well. The SNP seems to have a mixed | :08:53. | :09:03. | |
message there. As I understand that what they said was that the | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
published information about the result of the tests might be the raw | :09:09. | :09:11. | |
published information about the data supplemented by some teacher | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
assessment. I take your point that that inevitably makes it subjective, | :09:15. | :09:19. | |
but of course internally they would still have the raw data, so | :09:20. | :09:22. | |
presumably internally they would be able to say that the school which | :09:23. | :09:25. | |
has roughly the same pupil intake as the school and it is dreadful, we | :09:26. | :09:30. | |
had better do something about it. That brings you back to the problem | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
of week tables, which Nicola Sturgeon said she is keen to avoid, | :09:36. | :09:38. | |
but what is the point in collating data to judge how people are doing | :09:39. | :09:42. | |
if you are not good to use some form of tabling? They could see the could | :09:43. | :09:48. | |
use it internally as education managers without actually publishing | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
it. It makes me uncomfortable that notion about how we will be able to | :09:53. | :10:00. | |
monitor what the Government is doing if there is one set of data that is | :10:01. | :10:04. | |
internal and another set that is different. One thing I will say | :10:05. | :10:10. | |
about John Swinney, talking about trading data with you, he is good at | :10:11. | :10:16. | |
picking the right data. He has had years of practice in drabness. One | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
of the things over the course of the next few years is how opposition | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
parties and the media keep an eye on exactly what they are doing. It is a | :10:26. | :10:37. | |
tough one isn't it? It is not like, I will have a fight with whoever is | :10:38. | :10:42. | |
running social services and finalise a budget. It is almost a residual | :10:43. | :10:48. | |
attainment gap. It is a difficult thing to target and know that what | :10:49. | :10:50. | |
you are doing is good to have the effect that you want. It is | :10:51. | :10:57. | |
multifaceted. Coming in as Education Secretary, it is not just the | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
attainment gap as an endgame, but you have got shortages of teachers, | :11:02. | :11:05. | |
big class sizes, university budgets being reduced, named persons act, | :11:06. | :11:14. | |
they just complaining about workload, there are a lot of big | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
issues. The point about external markers, schools already struggle to | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
get markers to mark exams. This year and they have a problem with physics | :11:25. | :11:36. | |
markers. Let us look at a headline. I suspect you will not be getting | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
markers. Let us look at a headline. too many Christmas cards from Stuart | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
Hall see, but do you think all of this could stop him -- Christmas | :11:47. | :12:06. | |
cards from Stuart Hosie. It seems there are sources breathing about | :12:07. | :12:14. | |
the art angry at this. You see it as SNP sources. That is interesting. It | :12:15. | :12:21. | |
is relatively rare to have people identifying as SNP sources | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
criticising the SNP. Part of that is Stuart Hosie was part of the old | :12:27. | :12:32. | |
guard. It would have been thought that he was a safe pair of hands | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
guard. It would have been thought which is why he has been given this | :12:37. | :12:41. | |
drive to raise support for independence. It will be difficult | :12:42. | :12:46. | |
for him to take a high-profile media presence and not have this cast up | :12:47. | :12:51. | |
to him. The other side of that as it is not clear what this campaign is | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
supposed to amount to. When I asked Nicola Sturgeon she said, I am not | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
telling you because I have not announced it yet. Is it a public | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
campaign to convince people in favour of independence or is it more | :13:04. | :13:10. | |
of a self examination by the SNP? We have not conducted any self | :13:11. | :13:13. | |
examination of why they lost the last campaign. If it is a self | :13:14. | :13:17. | |
examination does not mean that Stuart Hosie will still be in the | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
running to coordinate that. He has had success with his involvement in | :13:22. | :13:27. | |
the last two manifestos of the SNP but it is a dynamic at the top of | :13:28. | :13:32. | |
the SNP, he is Nicola Sturgeon's deputy leader of the party, | :13:33. | :13:45. | |
internally... Presumably David Cameron would say he wished he had | :13:46. | :13:49. | |
that rather than Boris Johnson. We have to leave it there. | :13:50. | :13:53. | |
I'll be back at the same time next week. | :13:54. | :13:56. |