22/05/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


22/05/2016

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 22/05/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Leave campaigners say Turkey is on course to join

:00:36.:00:43.

the European Union and, if we remain in the EU,

:00:44.:00:45.

that will mean more criminals here and greater pressure

:00:46.:00:48.

The Prime Minister says it's nonsense.

:00:49.:00:51.

We'll have the latest on this developing row.

:00:52.:00:54.

This woman claims to be the voice of business -

:00:55.:00:57.

and that most businesses in the UK want to remain in the EU.

:00:58.:01:00.

But is the business case that clear cut?

:01:01.:01:02.

We speak to the Director General of the CBI.

:01:03.:01:07.

When it comes to gauging public opinion on the referendum,

:01:08.:01:10.

which is better: telephone polls or online polls?

:01:11.:01:11.

Even the pollsters are having trouble answering that one.

:01:12.:01:16.

And I tell you what, if I don't know,

:01:17.:01:19.

having done all this opinion polling for lark for 21 years,

:01:20.:01:22.

Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland:

:01:23.:01:26.

for the Deputy First Minister - we're talking live to John Swinney

:01:27.:01:31.

as he takes up his new post in charge of education.

:01:32.:01:39.

in the EU referendum. Which way did they tilt?

:01:40.:01:42.

And with me - as always - a political panel of the best

:01:43.:01:45.

and the brightest in the business, hopefully they do know which way

:01:46.:01:48.

to jump: Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh

:01:49.:01:50.

who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

:01:51.:01:54.

Turkey has taken centre-stage in the referendum debate today.

:01:55.:01:57.

Vote Leave are launching a new poster campaign warning that

:01:58.:01:59.

Turkey is on course to join the EU, leaving the UK vulnerable

:02:00.:02:02.

to criminals, mass migration and more pressure on public services.

:02:03.:02:07.

The Prime Minister was asked about the claims

:02:08.:02:09.

on the Robert Peston programme on ITV.

:02:10.:02:13.

Every country has a veto, and let's be clear,

:02:14.:02:17.

as Boris himself said, Turkey joining the EU is not remotely on

:02:18.:02:21.

the cards. At the current rate of progress, this would be decades,

:02:22.:02:24.

literally decades, before this even had a prospect of

:02:25.:02:27.

happening, and even at that stage, we would be able to say no.

:02:28.:02:32.

Well, that was David Cameron this morning.

:02:33.:02:35.

But here's what he had to say in a speech in Istanbul in 2010.

:02:36.:02:46.

But here's what he had to say in a speech in Ankara in 2010.

:02:47.:02:50.

It makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be

:02:51.:02:57.

frustrated. My view is clear. I believe it is wrong to say that

:02:58.:03:02.

Turkey can guard the camp, but not be allowed to sit in the tent. So

:03:03.:03:07.

why will remain your strongest possible advocate for EU membership

:03:08.:03:13.

and for greater influence at the top table of European diplomacy. The

:03:14.:03:16.

Prime Minister six years ago after becoming Prime Minister.

:03:17.:03:21.

Is it a proper issue for this referendum or is it a red herring?

:03:22.:03:29.

It is an issue and quite frankly, the Leave campaign will be delighted

:03:30.:03:32.

that we are now talking about Turkey, because every time you talk

:03:33.:03:38.

about Turkey, you conjure up the image of more migration,

:03:39.:03:40.

uncontrolled immigration from a poorer countries so it is a Leave

:03:41.:03:45.

win. I am not sure that the Prime Minister is right to engage in this

:03:46.:03:56.

one. But he has been called about this from someone whose judgment he

:03:57.:03:59.

also calls into question. But is a strange thing, his own Armed Forces

:04:00.:04:07.

Minister. The Prime Minister is right to say we have a veto, every

:04:08.:04:13.

EU member has a veto in new members, but if the Prime Minister is in

:04:14.:04:16.

favour of Turkey joining, which is said he was in Ankara, then the veto

:04:17.:04:22.

does not matter? Absolutely. What a great clip that was the Prime

:04:23.:04:27.

Minister in 2010, when he set out Ray clearly what his position is. He

:04:28.:04:31.

supports Turkey joining the EU in whatever time frame that may be. It

:04:32.:04:38.

does not do for the Prime Minister to say we have a veto. The question

:04:39.:04:42.

is, will you use that veto? If he is saying we would use our veto against

:04:43.:04:47.

Turkey, that is big news and can we hear it? It would be a big U-turn.

:04:48.:04:56.

It could be moot, couldn't it? There is no prospect of Turkey joining in

:04:57.:05:00.

the future, is there? The telling thing about this conversation as we

:05:01.:05:03.

are focusing on our veto and the veto possessed by all existing EU

:05:04.:05:07.

members and not focusing on Turkey itself. Is that country as keen on

:05:08.:05:14.

joining as was a decade ago? The change and internal politics in

:05:15.:05:19.

Turkey suggests they are less keen on membership or less keen on doing

:05:20.:05:23.

the things necessary to successfully apply for EU mentorship than they

:05:24.:05:28.

were a while ago. I think for reasons on the Turkish side and on

:05:29.:05:31.

the European side, it will not happen until I am a very old man.

:05:32.:05:35.

But it is entirely legitimate for Leave to play up this issue and

:05:36.:05:39.

every day we talk about migration is a day we're not spending talking

:05:40.:05:42.

about the economy and I think that is their only route to victory four

:05:43.:05:49.

weeks' time. There are plenty of forces in Germany and France, two

:05:50.:05:52.

countries about to have elections next year, who are not going to

:05:53.:05:57.

agree to Turkey joining any time soon. And if you were to be fair to

:05:58.:06:02.

the prime and Vista, you would say he made that speech in 2010 in

:06:03.:06:08.

Ankara, me and a whole load of political hacks were in the room

:06:09.:06:11.

when he said it... Were you there? I was there. At one stage he says he

:06:12.:06:19.

was passionate about Turkish president. He was very keen to suck

:06:20.:06:25.

up to President Erdogan at the time because he wanted more trade. That

:06:26.:06:33.

was pre-migration crisis. That has changed everything not just in

:06:34.:06:37.

British politics but for Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande. It may

:06:38.:06:40.

be acceptable for the Prime Minister to do a 180 degrees U-turn on this

:06:41.:06:48.

issue. We will see as the day develops.

:06:49.:06:51.

So, the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens, says the health

:06:52.:06:54.

service would be worse off if we decide to leave the EU.

:06:55.:06:57.

Two of his predecessors have also written a joint article

:06:58.:06:59.

in the Sunday Times saying that they think,

:07:00.:07:01.

for the NHS at least, staying in the EU is

:07:02.:07:03.

Mr Stevens was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning.

:07:04.:07:07.

When Mark Carney says that the risk of a slowdown in economic growth,

:07:08.:07:11.

possibly a recession, if we end up exiting the EU,

:07:12.:07:15.

if Mark Carney is right, then that is a severe concern

:07:16.:07:19.

for the National Health Service, because it would be very dangerous

:07:20.:07:24.

if at precisely the moment the NHS is going to need extra funding,

:07:25.:07:28.

actually the economy goes into a tailspin and that funding

:07:29.:07:31.

Leave campaigners, unsurprisingly, take a different view -

:07:32.:07:36.

they argue that remaining in the EU will place further strain on the NHS

:07:37.:07:40.

due to continued free movement of people and the accession

:07:41.:07:43.

What is the relationship between our membership

:07:44.:07:56.

The Department of Health estimates that the cost to the NHS in England

:07:57.:08:00.

from visitors and non-permanent residents who come from

:08:01.:08:02.

the European economic area, that is the EU plus Iceland,

:08:03.:08:05.

Lichtenstein and Norway, is around ?340 million a year.

:08:06.:08:08.

To put that in context, the total annual expenditure

:08:09.:08:11.

in England's NHS was ?113 billion in 2014-15.

:08:12.:08:16.

There are around 3 million people from other EU countries resident

:08:17.:08:19.

in the UK and all are entitled to use NHS services.

:08:20.:08:25.

All those would be entitled to stay in the UK, even if we were to leave

:08:26.:08:31.

the EU, due to the rights under the Vienna Convention.

:08:32.:08:34.

In 2015, around 257,000 EU nationals migrated to the UK.

:08:35.:08:39.

But whether that number would come down if we vote to leave depends

:08:40.:08:42.

on the deal the UK strikes with the EU following an exit.

:08:43.:08:47.

NHS England says the total number of staff coming from EU countries

:08:48.:08:52.

was just over 53,000, or 4.6% of the total NHS workforce.

:08:53.:08:58.

A total of 9% of NHS England's hospital doctors, 6% of its nurses

:08:59.:09:03.

and health visitors, come from other EU countries,

:09:04.:09:08.

however, all would be entitled to stay in the event of a vote

:09:09.:09:11.

to leave, and without knowing what any future deal might be,

:09:12.:09:14.

it is impossible to know if there would be any impact

:09:15.:09:16.

A one-time pro-European Foreign Secretary, he is now

:09:17.:09:24.

campaigning for the UK to leave the European Union.

:09:25.:09:29.

Good morning, David Owen. Let me come straight to the remarks by the

:09:30.:09:38.

man currently running the NHS in England, Simon Stevens. He said it

:09:39.:09:42.

would be better for the NHS if we remain in the EU. What is your

:09:43.:09:47.

response? Let's be quite clear. Simon Stevens is the manager of the

:09:48.:09:53.

NHS, which is currently ?3 billion in debt. This man has presided now

:09:54.:09:59.

for a sufficient time to judge his management skills. In almost every

:10:00.:10:04.

part of the National Health Service, there is an acute crisis. He spent

:10:05.:10:10.

ten years in America, with an American health care company,

:10:11.:10:18.

effectively arguing for the TTIP, this treaty between America and the

:10:19.:10:22.

European Union, which could be introduced, and an assessment makes

:10:23.:10:34.

it very clear that TTIP will be very damaging to the National Health

:10:35.:10:41.

Service, if it is drafted in the way that it is. Simon Stevens should

:10:42.:10:46.

stick to his Lee which is to manage the health service more effectively.

:10:47.:10:51.

He is an individual, he has a view on the European Union which is fine,

:10:52.:10:55.

but his basic job is to look after the NHS, and at the moment he is

:10:56.:11:01.

making a very considerable mess of. It is not just Simon Stevens, two of

:11:02.:11:10.

his predecessors say staying in the EU is the preferable option.

:11:11.:11:15.

Identifying, if there is any danger to the NHS, it is in staying in,

:11:16.:11:21.

with all the elements of the NHS which are now involved with the EU.

:11:22.:11:26.

-- I don't think. For the first 20 years of our membership, with the

:11:27.:11:31.

common market, we had no involvement with the NHS at all. Now the NHS

:11:32.:11:36.

procurement policy, the NHS competition policy is all impact in,

:11:37.:11:41.

because we have started to Mark ties the NHS in 2002 under Labour. It

:11:42.:11:46.

continued under the coalition with the Liberal Democrats of this

:11:47.:11:49.

present Conservative government, and it has continued under this

:11:50.:11:54.

Conservative government. If you treat health like water or

:11:55.:11:58.

electricity or gas, as a utility, and you treat them all as customers,

:11:59.:12:04.

then you will be under market pressures, and the problem with the

:12:05.:12:10.

NHS is we lost what it was, it fortunately still is in Wales,

:12:11.:12:14.

Scotland and Northern Ireland, but in England it is a marker ties to

:12:15.:12:19.

health service modelling itself on the United States of America. If you

:12:20.:12:22.

wanted to make changes, you would be wiser to stick to Germany or France,

:12:23.:12:28.

not go the United States model. Let me put a point to you. Michael Gove,

:12:29.:12:33.

part of the Leave campaign, he says the NHS could be overwhelmed by

:12:34.:12:37.

continued migration if we stay in the EU. He predicts an extra 5

:12:38.:12:44.

million plus by 2030. These predictions suggest that Turkey,

:12:45.:12:50.

Macedonia and Albania all join the EU by 2020. That is not on the

:12:51.:12:55.

cards, is it? Let's be clear about your programme so far and analyse

:12:56.:13:03.

what has been said already. It is not the Prime Minister what he said

:13:04.:13:07.

in Istanbul, the Prime Minister nine weeks ago signed up to the European

:13:08.:13:11.

Council meeting on the 18th of March, and he said, to re-energise

:13:12.:13:20.

the accession process for Turkey to join the EU, and to make preparatory

:13:21.:13:27.

work for the opening of other chapters will continue at an

:13:28.:13:33.

accelerating pace. This is a Prime Minister who is getting used to

:13:34.:13:36.

saying one thing one time, another thing another. Nine weeks ago, we

:13:37.:13:41.

were committed to increasing the speed of entry for Turkey into the

:13:42.:13:48.

European Union. I am passionate about keeping Turkey inside Nato,

:13:49.:13:52.

and with one foot in the EU and with one foot in the Middle East. Why?

:13:53.:13:57.

Because Turkey is essentially important country, as a member of

:13:58.:14:03.

Nato in dealing with Isil, Syria, Iraq and many other problems around

:14:04.:14:08.

the world. But you will not make it by bringing them prematurely into

:14:09.:14:12.

the European Union. What we should be doing is encouraging them to come

:14:13.:14:17.

into the single market which has non-EU countries associated, but

:14:18.:14:25.

without this issue of freedom of movement of Labour. You are Foreign

:14:26.:14:33.

Secretary... Let me ask this question. You must surely know, that

:14:34.:14:39.

Turkey's chances of joining the EU in the foreseeable future are

:14:40.:14:44.

remote. Isn't that the reality? No, I think what was said by your

:14:45.:14:47.

commentator earlier in the programmers that has been a change

:14:48.:14:52.

of foreign policy. If the Prime Minister commits nine weeks ago to

:14:53.:14:55.

speeding up Turkey's membership, and then does not deliver on it, what

:14:56.:15:01.

will be the consequences? Turkey will feel they have been lied to or

:15:02.:15:05.

rejected by the Europeans and they will, in my view, come out of Nato

:15:06.:15:08.

with very profound consequences. At will, in my view, come out of Nato

:15:09.:15:13.

the moment, let's treat Turkey with respect, let's try and ensure they

:15:14.:15:16.

make the necessary changes on human rights and in many other areas.

:15:17.:15:20.

There are a lot of worrying aspects about Turkish policy, but mention

:15:21.:15:25.

above the European Union in my view is not the issue. It is how to make

:15:26.:15:32.

them more committed to Europe. Don't avoid this question. If we are in

:15:33.:15:37.

the European Union, we are committed to freedom of movement of Labour in

:15:38.:15:42.

every aspect of EU membership. That is a problem. David Owen, thank you,

:15:43.:15:44.

we will have to leave it there. The Confederation Of British

:15:45.:15:48.

Industry calls itself the "voice of business",

:15:49.:15:50.

claiming to speak on behalf of 190,000 businesses,

:15:51.:15:52.

employing up to 7 million people. And according to the CBI,

:15:53.:15:56.

British businesses overwhelmingly back the idea of remaining

:15:57.:15:58.

in the EU. What's more, they've been

:15:59.:16:00.

encouraging their members to talk to staff about the referendum

:16:01.:16:05.

to give them "the choice to hear what impact a Brexit

:16:06.:16:08.

would have on company growth, their jobs and their

:16:09.:16:10.

local community". As you can imagine, Leave

:16:11.:16:12.

campaigners are not amused. The chair of the Vote Leave business

:16:13.:16:19.

council, John Longworth, a former director-general

:16:20.:16:22.

of the British Chambers Of Commerce, said the call was an

:16:23.:16:24.

"anti-democratic abuse of power He added: "It's highly regrettable

:16:25.:16:26.

to see big corporate bosses plotting to gang up on their staff,

:16:27.:16:33.

and lecture them on how to vote." Well, we're joined

:16:34.:16:38.

now by the director general of the CBI,

:16:39.:16:39.

Carolyn Fairbairn. Welcome to the programme. Good

:16:40.:16:59.

morning. If big business told its workers how to vote in a general

:17:00.:17:02.

election, there would be broad, so why are you encouraging your members

:17:03.:17:04.

to warn their workers about the dangers of Brexit? That is not what

:17:05.:17:07.

we have said. We have said that people working today in economy want

:17:08.:17:09.

to hear from their employers about what it means on either side of the

:17:10.:17:13.

debate. That is not what you said, you said what impact Brexit would

:17:14.:17:17.

have on growth, jobs and the local community. Positive for negative.

:17:18.:17:22.

You did not say that? It is clear this is not about warning anybody.

:17:23.:17:26.

This is about the questions that people are now asking about what it

:17:27.:17:30.

means for them. We were clean about that. Most of your members, you

:17:31.:17:36.

claim, are in favour of staying in the European Union. The message

:17:37.:17:40.

going out to the workforce will be overwhelmingly about remaining in

:17:41.:17:44.

the EU. The main thing is that people who are going to vote on June

:17:45.:17:49.

23 have as good an understanding as they possibly can about what it

:17:50.:17:53.

means for their jobs, families and communities. That was the key

:17:54.:17:59.

message, nothing about telling people how to vote. We learned this

:18:00.:18:03.

week that one of your members, Circle, was planning uproar EU

:18:04.:18:07.

campaign with the Prime Minister, even before the renegotiations were

:18:08.:18:12.

finished. With the CBI or any of your members have similar

:18:13.:18:16.

discussions with the government? To my knowledge, no. The conversations

:18:17.:18:23.

that businesses, universities, all parts of our society have with

:18:24.:18:28.

government go on every day. Were you planning the pro-union-mac campaign

:18:29.:18:31.

with the government even before the renegotiations? No. But Circle was?

:18:32.:18:39.

No. Everything the CBI has done is a result of the things we have done

:18:40.:18:44.

and a half of our members. Circle has contracts with the government

:18:45.:18:49.

worth several million pounds. The taxpayer pays for that. Its boss was

:18:50.:18:54.

offering to help the Prime Minister do what he could to help keep

:18:55.:18:59.

Britain in the EU. It was a behind closed doors stitch up between big

:19:00.:19:02.

government and big business, wasn't it? The important thing is to

:19:03.:19:08.

understand what businesses across the country of all sizes are seeing.

:19:09.:19:14.

You're focusing on one company. What we are seeing is that the majority

:19:15.:19:20.

of businesses want to stay in the European Union. I understand that. I

:19:21.:19:27.

am asking you if the way this company has handled this... It

:19:28.:19:30.

smells of a stitch up? I do not think this is a stitch up. It is

:19:31.:19:35.

about voices of business being heard on issues of jobs, growth and the

:19:36.:19:40.

future prosperity of our country. People can make their decisions on

:19:41.:19:45.

polling day about a whole variety of factors, but businesses who are

:19:46.:19:48.

trading with the European Union everyday, having their voices

:19:49.:19:52.

clearly heard. The voice of this company was certainly clearly heard.

:19:53.:20:02.

He saw the Prime Minister, Mr Soames. This is what he did in the

:20:03.:20:05.

follow-up letter. He spoke about backing the prime and is to's

:20:06.:20:08.

campaign to keep us in the EU. This is even though the renegotiations

:20:09.:20:11.

were not finished. He went on to lobby for business. He said... He

:20:12.:20:18.

wants more business at the same time. It really does add to the

:20:19.:20:25.

sense that this is big business feathering its own nest. That is not

:20:26.:20:29.

what is going on. There are conversations all the time. Why he

:20:30.:20:34.

wise to do that, to lobby for more business at the same time as

:20:35.:20:39.

lobbying to stay in the EU? I think there are conversations happening

:20:40.:20:43.

all the time. Is that conversation appropriate? Those are questions for

:20:44.:20:48.

other people. The CBI represents mainly businesses across the UK and

:20:49.:20:52.

Europe picking on one. The important thing is the voices of the many are

:20:53.:20:59.

heard in this. Are they heard? You give the impression you like the EU

:21:00.:21:03.

because it is a one-stop club for big business. There are 30,000

:21:04.:21:06.

lobbyists in Brussels, most of them are doing for the interests of your

:21:07.:21:12.

kind of members, the business. Ordinary folk do not get a look in?

:21:13.:21:16.

I do not think that is true. We have had 20 business surveys since the

:21:17.:21:20.

beginning of the year, for all different sizes of business, and it

:21:21.:21:25.

is not unanimous, but they are all seeing broadly the same thing. We

:21:26.:21:28.

have had the creative industries Forum coming out with the survey.

:21:29.:21:34.

93%, because they are big exporters. This is not just big business. It is

:21:35.:21:40.

all sizes of business. Let's look at how the EU is good for your members

:21:41.:21:46.

but not necessarily the rest of us. The European Court of Justice has

:21:47.:21:49.

forced Her Majesty is Customs and revenue to hand back almost ?8

:21:50.:21:56.

billion in tax paid by big British companies, overruling tax laws made

:21:57.:21:58.

by our government and our Parliament. That is good for big

:21:59.:22:04.

business but not public services? There are areas where we share

:22:05.:22:08.

sovereignty, in order to have a level playing field across Europe

:22:09.:22:12.

for businesses overall. We are not always going to like all of the

:22:13.:22:16.

rules. It is a question of whether the benefits outweigh the costs. The

:22:17.:22:21.

benefits to your members are clear, they are paying a billion less in

:22:22.:22:28.

tax. The independent office of budget responsibility expected HMRC

:22:29.:22:31.

to pay another 8 billion back by the end of the decade. This is about

:22:32.:22:36.

lowering tax regimes and not allowing HMRC to get the proper tax.

:22:37.:22:43.

That is not fear to ordinary people? To be clear, the CBI can businesses

:22:44.:22:46.

overall do not support aggressive tax avoidance. We support the moves

:22:47.:22:52.

that have been taken at the OECD level to sort this out. This is not

:22:53.:22:59.

something we support. Your members will be 16 billion better off.

:23:00.:23:04.

British schools, hospitals, public services, will be 16 billion worse

:23:05.:23:09.

off. If the HMRC goes down in all these cases, we could be 40 billion

:23:10.:23:16.

worse off. Good for big business, but not local hospitals? I do not

:23:17.:23:19.

know the exact details of those numbers, but I would say that the

:23:20.:23:25.

moves to improve tax policy are absolutely supported by members. The

:23:26.:23:29.

CBI has been wrong about Britain in the EU in the past. Why should we

:23:30.:23:35.

listen to you now? This is becoming a distraction. You are right that

:23:36.:23:39.

when the euro was debated at the end of the 1980s, in principle, the CBI

:23:40.:23:47.

had a principle of support with caveats. You supported the principle

:23:48.:23:51.

of the European exchange mechanism. That ended in recession. Many people

:23:52.:23:57.

lost their homes and jobs. You then became enthusiastic about UK

:23:58.:24:01.

membership of the monetary union, the euro. I ask again, if you were

:24:02.:24:08.

wrong then, why should we listen to you now? Two important points, if

:24:09.:24:14.

you had continued to scroll down, you would seem that there were

:24:15.:24:19.

caveats, conditions that had to be met. Conditions around harmonisation

:24:20.:24:23.

of inflation and the economy. They were never met. By 2000 the CBI had

:24:24.:24:29.

moved its position to neutral. The discussion we are having now is

:24:30.:24:33.

about something very different. It is about the experience that we as

:24:34.:24:38.

an economy have had the European Union for 43 years. We have thrived.

:24:39.:24:41.

We have gone from being the sick man of Europe to being the strong man.

:24:42.:24:47.

His Mrs are doing well. The benefit from being in a single market. The

:24:48.:24:51.

euro was about something which people were imagining in the future,

:24:52.:24:56.

a different debate. Let's come to the current debate. We saw your

:24:57.:25:00.

stance on the euro then. You know think we would be better off if we

:25:01.:25:05.

remain. That is the clear fight -- the clear-cut view of the CBI. You

:25:06.:25:12.

commissioned an organisation to assess the impact of leaving the EU.

:25:13.:25:18.

That is the result of the survey. If we remain, they think the economy

:25:19.:25:26.

will grow by 41% by 2030. Even if we were to come out, the economy would

:25:27.:25:31.

still grow by 39%, even if we did not have any free trade against, it

:25:32.:25:37.

would grow by 36%. It is hardly game changing either way? We have

:25:38.:25:41.

deliberately taken optimistic, balance and areas of the future.

:25:42.:25:46.

You're right, economies recover and adapt. You have not shown the

:25:47.:25:51.

short-term impact of several years of uncertainty. What we believe, and

:25:52.:25:56.

many others believe as well, is there could be significant

:25:57.:26:02.

short-term impacts, no sunlit uplands. You can get to 39%. Your

:26:03.:26:08.

own study shows are economy would be almost 40% bigger by 2030, even if

:26:09.:26:14.

we were to leave. That is if we do a trade deal with the US, if we are

:26:15.:26:20.

able to form new relationships with the EU. These are optimistic

:26:21.:26:25.

assumptions. Take the non-optimistic on, the World Trade Organisation. We

:26:26.:26:30.

just trade on existing rules. It is 36%, it is still a massive rise. Of

:26:31.:26:35.

course we would continue to grow. No one has ever said we would not

:26:36.:26:40.

continue to grow. But will we be more prosperous? We would be 36%

:26:41.:26:47.

more prosperous. In the short-term, by 2020, we estimate there would be

:26:48.:26:52.

a million fewer jobs and 4-5% hate to GDP. Do we want to do that to

:26:53.:26:58.

school leavers? We've just come out of recession. You accept that the

:26:59.:27:01.

difference is not massive? It is entirely possible the economy would

:27:02.:27:06.

adapt. But only with significant short-term impact, and particularly

:27:07.:27:10.

an impact on the next generation of school leavers. The CBI claims that

:27:11.:27:15.

each household benefits to the tune of six -- ?3000 a year. Observers

:27:16.:27:22.

have condemned that as a dishonest figure. Do you stand by it? We do.

:27:23.:27:29.

It was a literature sturdy of existing studies. We wanted to put

:27:30.:27:35.

together a figure that was easy to understand. -- literature study.

:27:36.:27:40.

Estimates like that are difficult to do. There was a range good around

:27:41.:27:46.

it. To be clear, standards of living have doubled. That is since the UK

:27:47.:27:52.

joined the European Union. They have gone from ?20,000 household income

:27:53.:27:57.

to about ?40,000. We are seeing a proportion of that has been a result

:27:58.:28:02.

of membership of the European Union, and independent studies would

:28:03.:28:05.

support that. You did no original research for this at all. We never

:28:06.:28:10.

claimed to. I have explained that to our viewers. You simply did a survey

:28:11.:28:16.

of research papers. But when you look, you cherry picked the research

:28:17.:28:24.

papers that had pro-union-mac inclusions. That is not true. I have

:28:25.:28:28.

got the ones that you did not use, you omitted the IUD, you omitted the

:28:29.:28:30.

National Institute for economic and social research. Even omitted the US

:28:31.:28:36.

Trade Commission survey of what it meant, or to get this ?3000 figure.

:28:37.:28:43.

You know tell me it is not accurate. That is not true. The evaluation we

:28:44.:28:47.

did of the different surveys, we omitted as many on one side as the

:28:48.:28:52.

other. There is a 20 page paper on this which anyone can go and read.

:28:53.:28:57.

It sets out the methodology accurately. You seem to be biased

:28:58.:29:00.

against those that did not come to the conclusion you want. Channel 4's

:29:01.:29:07.

respected fact checked included, the figure is not based on any real

:29:08.:29:12.

evidence. The chairman of the Treasury Select Committee described

:29:13.:29:16.

it as a scandalous misuse of data and intellectually miss honest. We

:29:17.:29:20.

went to him and we set out the facts. I do not think he had read

:29:21.:29:25.

the paper. It is not intended to be anything other than an assessment of

:29:26.:29:29.

consensus views over the last ten years. You did not include other

:29:30.:29:39.

papers. The important thing is to be focusing on what this would mean for

:29:40.:29:43.

the decision for the country. You're telling people that households would

:29:44.:29:48.

be ?3000 a year worse off if we were to leave? That is not what we are

:29:49.:29:54.

saying. Are you saying that we are ?3000 better off by remaining? As a

:29:55.:29:59.

result of having joined, about 15% of the increase in living standards

:30:00.:30:03.

over the time since joining is a result of being part of the European

:30:04.:30:07.

Union. That is a reasonable thing to have said. Is the CBI still keen on

:30:08.:30:11.

principle to join the euro? Absolutely not.

:30:12.:30:17.

Would you welcome a further expansion of the EU to include the

:30:18.:30:23.

five countries already in the queue? I think it has to depend on the

:30:24.:30:27.

conditions at the time. The thing that is clear is we have a sovereign

:30:28.:30:31.

choice over those additional countries. Turkey is a huge market,

:30:32.:30:37.

it could be good for British business, would you welcome it? We

:30:38.:30:41.

have not had that discussion with our members. We would have a

:30:42.:30:51.

discussion at that time and have a point of view at that time. The CBI

:30:52.:30:54.

welcomed both the Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty. Would you welcome a

:30:55.:30:59.

further transfer of powers if we voted to remain? No. I think one

:31:00.:31:03.

thing which is clear is we pool sovereignty when it is in the

:31:04.:31:07.

benefits of our economy and we don't wear it is not. I would say one

:31:08.:31:11.

thing, in terms of the opt out from the working Time directive, a very

:31:12.:31:16.

important part of our special arrangement, if you like, of the

:31:17.:31:20.

European Union, the CBI was fully part of and helped to negotiate.

:31:21.:31:24.

Thank you. Depending on which polls you look

:31:25.:31:27.

at, Britain is either scoffing at the idea of leaving the EU

:31:28.:31:29.

or it's marching swiftly One telephone poll this week gave

:31:30.:31:32.

Remain an eight point lead. An online poll, meanwhile,

:31:33.:31:36.

gave it to Leave by four points. The problem is that both

:31:37.:31:39.

those polls were done Our society and our electorate

:31:40.:31:41.

is made up of unique individuals, every one of them different and yet

:31:42.:31:50.

they share many attributes: gender, age, race, religion,

:31:51.:31:52.

economic background, education, political views,

:31:53.:31:55.

and social attitudes. Pollsters, therefore,

:31:56.:32:02.

can only ever try to tell us terms of a specific question,

:32:03.:32:06.

but it's only ever going to be a snapshot of wildly

:32:07.:32:12.

interpretable data. That snapshot is simply a moment

:32:13.:32:13.

in time, and is always, inevitably, slightly inaccurate

:32:14.:32:17.

to varying degrees, and what makes

:32:18.:32:20.

political polling even harder is it is like trying to

:32:21.:32:23.

hit a moving target from a moving platform

:32:24.:32:31.

in the And you would think in this EU

:32:32.:32:32.

referendum the simplicity of the question would help,

:32:33.:32:36.

should we leave It makes the whole thing

:32:37.:32:38.

much more complicated. The problem is a slew of polls

:32:39.:32:46.

giving very different signals. Given the problems

:32:47.:32:49.

pollsters had getting the general election right, and some

:32:50.:32:50.

of them didn't, this matters. Some have it neck and neck,

:32:51.:32:56.

some Remain ahead, others ahead It is a minefield in

:32:57.:32:58.

terms of working out When I apply different technical

:32:59.:33:08.

methods to my raw data, I can move the Remain or Leave lead

:33:09.:33:17.

in both directions. I tell you what, if I do not

:33:18.:33:19.

know having done this opinion polling lark for 21 years,

:33:20.:33:25.

I am not sure who does. Some of this is down to how

:33:26.:33:28.

the polls are done, how they get a truly

:33:29.:33:32.

representative sample of society in the first place,

:33:33.:33:35.

either by phone or online panels. Which is best is a bone

:33:36.:33:42.

of contention that in recent days has even

:33:43.:33:44.

spilt onto social media, The problem is it has become

:33:45.:33:46.

harder and harder to get Online samples are by their nature

:33:47.:33:53.

self-selecting so have biases Phone samples used to be

:33:54.:33:58.

considered far more representative, but in recent years,

:33:59.:34:03.

the response rates to phone polls have dropped so low it is hard

:34:04.:34:06.

now to consider them to be So both modes have an element

:34:07.:34:09.

of self-selection. Can I ask you a few questions about

:34:10.:34:13.

about yourself? Would you say you are likely to vote

:34:14.:34:17.

or will definitely vote? Fewer of us use landlines

:34:18.:34:20.

or want to be cold called, thus more calls then ever before

:34:21.:34:26.

have to be made just to get But you do avoid those who,

:34:27.:34:29.

with online polling, And phone contact through

:34:30.:34:34.

persistence is better at eventually reaching those who are

:34:35.:34:40.

harder to get hold of. Would it be all right

:34:41.:34:44.

if we call you back later? There is a growing narrative

:34:45.:34:50.

amongst some pollsters that phone polling

:34:51.:34:56.

is probably the more accurate, which,

:34:57.:34:58.

given recent phone polling We look at samples and try to check

:34:59.:34:59.

them to see we have the right number of people who vote,

:35:00.:35:07.

do we believe that all the people

:35:08.:35:09.

in our sample who tell us they're going to vote actually

:35:10.:35:12.

will, are we missing people who really just do not care

:35:13.:35:13.

about the referendum referendum and aren't going to vote,

:35:14.:35:20.

are we missing the great unwashed who do

:35:21.:35:22.

not have degrees? All those things,

:35:23.:35:24.

when we make adjustments for all of those things, Remain is

:35:25.:35:26.

still ahead. We would have to be very,

:35:27.:35:28.

very wrong indeed for Remain, at the moment, on the

:35:29.:35:31.

polling so far, not to win this Online pollsters, who use panels

:35:32.:35:34.

of signed up people, are perhaps not surprisingly

:35:35.:35:37.

pointing to weaknesses So much so that the online pollsters

:35:38.:35:39.

YouGov have conducted some phone polling

:35:40.:35:43.

about phone polling. What we found from that comparison,

:35:44.:35:49.

both to the national picture and to our online polls,

:35:50.:35:52.

was that telephone polls were underestimating the people

:35:53.:35:56.

who are not university educated, and that is

:35:57.:35:59.

hugely important in the EU referendum because we know

:36:00.:36:03.

that is one of the great social cleavages, in other words,

:36:04.:36:05.

one of the great things that divides So phone polls are missing

:36:06.:36:08.

potential Leave voters. Online are accused

:36:09.:36:11.

of overstating them, there are two other that vital:

:36:12.:36:18.

are are you going to vote? Turnout will be

:36:19.:36:27.

crucial on June 23rd. The higher it is the more it favours

:36:28.:36:28.

Remain, and what happens when the mass of "don't

:36:29.:36:31.

knows" make up their mind? With more questions and mixed

:36:32.:36:34.

answers, and four weeks to go,

:36:35.:36:35.

most pollsters might reasonably fear

:36:36.:36:38.

the result of a poll that asked us all,

:36:39.:36:40.

"Do pollsters really have a It's just gone 11.35,

:36:41.:36:42.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:36:43.:36:50.

in Scotland who leave us now Good morning and welcome

:36:51.:36:58.

to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme:

:36:59.:37:00.

John Swinney will be talking to us about the challenges of his new role

:37:01.:37:03.

as Education Secretary. To make sure that we close the

:37:04.:37:20.

attainment gap. To ensure that we fulfil our commitment to the

:37:21.:37:23.

What are the key issues in the EU referendum?

:37:24.:37:27.

We ask a leading academic for his view.

:37:28.:37:28.

And do the campaigners for Leave and Remain agree?

:37:29.:37:31.

The new Education Secretary, John Swinney, set out his priorities

:37:32.:37:33.

when he visited his old school on Friday.

:37:34.:37:36.

The focus for the Scottish Government is on reducing

:37:37.:37:40.

the attainment gap in Scottish schools.

:37:41.:37:41.

Mr Swinney says funding is already in place,

:37:42.:37:43.

but more needs to be done to improve the chances of pupils

:37:44.:37:47.

But critics say that under the SNP the gulf has widened,

:37:48.:37:51.

and more needs to be spent on early years education.

:37:52.:37:54.

If you've ever been the new kid in class you will know who don think it

:37:55.:38:15.

can be. Good morning. How are you doing? Trying to make friends well

:38:16.:38:22.

keeping the teachers happy is not easy and that is the challenge John

:38:23.:38:28.

Swinney faces, this week taking charge of Scotland's's education

:38:29.:38:34.

system at a crucial time. At the moment SNP ministers say things are

:38:35.:38:36.

system at a crucial time. At the good but not good enough. They want

:38:37.:38:40.

Scotland's education system to be the best in the world. We will make

:38:41.:38:46.

sure that young people have the opportunity regardless of

:38:47.:38:49.

background, to further and higher education. This is what I will

:38:50.:38:54.

concentrate on taking forward. The Government has set its sights on

:38:55.:38:59.

closing what is known as the attainment gap between pupils from

:39:00.:39:02.

the most and least deprived backgrounds. The First Minister has

:39:03.:39:07.

made it her mission. Improving school attainment is arguably the

:39:08.:39:11.

single most important objective in this programme for Government.

:39:12.:39:15.

Improving its overall and closing the gap between children in most and

:39:16.:39:23.

least deprived areas is fundamental. My aim to put it bluntly as to cause

:39:24.:39:28.

that attainment gap. Not by a pit but to calls that attainment gap

:39:29.:39:33.

completely. It will not be done overnight, I accept that, but that

:39:34.:39:37.

must be done. We intend to make significant

:39:38.:39:41.

progress on closing the attainment gap within the next parliament and

:39:42.:39:44.

to substantially eliminate it with than a decade and that is a

:39:45.:39:51.

commitment I ask to be judged on. But the Scottish Government as where

:39:52.:39:57.

that there is no magic formula for closing the gap and education

:39:58.:39:59.

experts say there is lot to consider. Our least advantaged

:40:00.:40:06.

children, only 60% of them are doing well or doing very well at this too,

:40:07.:40:11.

with as 90% of the richer pupils are doing well. It is a big attainment

:40:12.:40:18.

gap. It is likely that that gap comes out of a lot of small

:40:19.:40:23.

inequalities and is the cumulative effect of that rather than any one

:40:24.:40:27.

big thing. We know that schools on their own are not responsible for

:40:28.:40:31.

the gap that actually schools work with other agencies, they could make

:40:32.:40:37.

a difference to closing it. But as the Government embarks on its big

:40:38.:40:41.

plan to do exactly that conservatives head girl for

:40:42.:40:45.

education says things have actually been getting worse. We have not had

:40:46.:40:50.

enough focus on the basic skills. One of the things that the

:40:51.:40:53.

Conservative Party argues strongly is that when it comes to teacher

:40:54.:40:57.

training those who are going to that process have said that they wanted

:40:58.:41:01.

more focus on the ability to teach children to read, write and count

:41:02.:41:05.

properly and that is hugely important. John Swinney says he is

:41:06.:41:09.

aware of the challenge ahead and official figures last year showed a

:41:10.:41:12.

drop in the touristy standards in some areas, the message is, must do

:41:13.:41:15.

better. Listening to that in our Dundee

:41:16.:41:17.

studio is the new Cabinet Secretary Are you excited by this job you have

:41:18.:41:31.

taken on or are you feeling a bit daunted by it? A bit of both. I am

:41:32.:41:37.

excited by the challenge and the opportunity I have been given to

:41:38.:41:41.

read a process of change and development in education, to work to

:41:42.:41:45.

make Scottish education world class. But I go into this with my eyes wide

:41:46.:41:50.

open. There are some significant challenges that have to be addressed

:41:51.:41:54.

and I want to deploy my energy and my skill to take that forward. I am

:41:55.:42:00.

hugely excited by it. I am thrilled with the opportunity to be Education

:42:01.:42:02.

Secretary but I do not underestimate the scale of the

:42:03.:42:24.

challenge. You are used to dealing with finance. It is all hard

:42:25.:42:26.

numbers. You either have a budget deficit or you do not. You set a

:42:27.:42:29.

budget. You have all the targets. But closing the attainment gap in

:42:30.:42:31.

education is a much less precise thing, as it's not? The danger is

:42:32.:42:35.

that will feel like you are pushing a piece of string. The attainment

:42:36.:42:37.

gap is measurable. We have got your measurements. But in the package

:42:38.:42:43.

that you just short, the professor said the attainment gap would not be

:42:44.:42:46.

caused by one single instrument but by a variety of different measures

:42:47.:42:51.

that we take. At the key thing is that we have absolute clarity that

:42:52.:42:55.

the purpose of my approach as Education Secretary is to close that

:42:56.:43:00.

attainment gap. That becomes the most central part of the education

:43:01.:43:05.

direction and Scotland. What are we talking about? It is not clear even

:43:06.:43:12.

what we are starting with year. A lot of people have talked about the

:43:13.:43:16.

attainment gap being the number of people from relatively background to

:43:17.:43:20.

get to university. Is that what you mean? I mean that's the attainment

:43:21.:43:29.

gap becomes clear from the youngest ages of young people within

:43:30.:43:35.

Scotland. From the start of primary school that is clear that children

:43:36.:43:38.

from the most deprived backgrounds compare two children from the least

:43:39.:43:43.

deprived backgrounds are significantly disadvantaged even at

:43:44.:43:47.

that stage of their progress in education. I need to focus on making

:43:48.:43:51.

sure that all of us who take forward the work to support young people

:43:52.:43:54.

within Scotland from the very earliest stages, all of that is

:43:55.:44:00.

going -- not all of that will be in the schools, some of it will be in

:44:01.:44:04.

community services and health care. But we are focused on the earliest

:44:05.:44:15.

stages of making sure that. And the various stages during the

:44:16.:44:18.

educational clear we have to take steps to make sure we close that

:44:19.:44:21.

educational clear we have to take gap. But just to be clear on this,

:44:22.:44:25.

Nicola Sturgeon has said not just that she wants her Government to be

:44:26.:44:29.

judged on progress and this but she wants herself as First Minister to

:44:30.:44:33.

be judged. When you see close the attainment gap are you saying you

:44:34.:44:37.

want measurable benchmarks and that it is not just about the number of

:44:38.:44:42.

people from deprived backgrounds getting into university? You seem to

:44:43.:44:48.

be suggesting that you want a series of benchmarks that every stage

:44:49.:44:53.

throughout their school career, for example at the end of primary seven,

:44:54.:45:03.

third-year, but the gap is closing. There is that what you are saying?

:45:04.:45:07.

If you look at the National improvement framework published in

:45:08.:45:11.

January that is what we set out? We set out the desire to make sure that

:45:12.:45:15.

at these stages in the educational clear of young people in Scotland we

:45:16.:45:20.

are able to see whether or not the attainment gap is narrowing or

:45:21.:45:27.

growing. We have discussed drab statistics for many years. These are

:45:28.:45:34.

not drab statistics. These are lives. Exciting statistics, do not

:45:35.:45:39.

do yourself down. These are about the life chances of people in

:45:40.:45:44.

Scotland and cannot be anything more significant or precious than

:45:45.:45:46.

transforming the life chances of children in our country. We cannot

:45:47.:45:50.

afford to leave it until young people are 17 or 18 to find out how

:45:51.:45:55.

many of them go to university. We have to be able to arrest that and

:45:56.:45:59.

intervene in that at a much earlier stage. That is why we put such

:46:00.:46:05.

emphasis on the expansion of early years education and childcare within

:46:06.:46:08.

Scotland, that we begin to tackle some of these difficulties as early

:46:09.:46:14.

we possibly can. On Friday I spent an marvellous amount of time in a

:46:15.:46:19.

primary school in Edinburgh where I saw some two-year-olds involved in

:46:20.:46:24.

nursery education in Scotland, our youngest citizens, coming from

:46:25.:46:28.

deprived backgrounds, getting well supported and nurtured and

:46:29.:46:32.

encouraged and motivated and it was fantastic to watch the efforts that

:46:33.:46:35.

were put in to try to transform the life chances of these young

:46:36.:46:39.

individuals in Scotland. Before you start doing things, what is your

:46:40.:46:45.

analysis? Figures show that people from deprived backgrounds in

:46:46.:46:50.

Scotland, well in England, are twice as likely to go to university than

:46:51.:46:54.

in Scotland and in Wales and Northern Ireland the figures again

:46:55.:46:58.

are much better than in Scotland. Scotland appears to be lagging in

:46:59.:47:02.

that department considerably and progress seems to be slower than in

:47:03.:47:06.

England. Why is anyone doing so much better? The key thing is that

:47:07.:47:12.

performance industry spec is improving in Scotland. Young people

:47:13.:47:14.

are more likely to go to university from deprived backgrounds. Why the

:47:15.:47:21.

gap? The gap is there as a product of the issues in the attainment gap

:47:22.:47:25.

that perfectly all the way through the system within Scotland. That is

:47:26.:47:29.

why I said in my previous answer it is important... Why should England

:47:30.:47:36.

be doing so much better? Ultimately the answers lie for Scotland in

:47:37.:47:41.

ensuring that we have a very strong teaching profession with high

:47:42.:47:45.

quality teaching, close connections between schools and the wider

:47:46.:47:50.

community, and families in particular, so that families are

:47:51.:47:53.

involved in the learning process, and it is vital that they

:47:54.:47:57.

concentrate on having clear and effective and by night leadership

:47:58.:48:00.

throughout the education system within Scotland. In those three

:48:01.:48:05.

areas, quality of the teaching profession, the role of families and

:48:06.:48:09.

community within education, importance of leadership, these will

:48:10.:48:12.

be the key questions that I would cut in the early stages, that I

:48:13.:48:16.

discussed with the broad range of stakeholders that there are thin the

:48:17.:48:19.

system in Scotland, to make sure that we use all of our energies to

:48:20.:48:24.

tackle what is clearly a unified objective of everybody in education

:48:25.:48:28.

that I have heard talking about that, the closing of the attainment

:48:29.:48:32.

gap and Scott, and that will be my central mission in the course of the

:48:33.:48:36.

next parliamentary term. The new national tests that you intend to

:48:37.:48:41.

produce, I presumed it will be standardised across all schools?

:48:42.:48:49.

Yes. They will be marked externally? What we are involved in discussion

:48:50.:48:52.

about is how we can deliver standardised assessments so that we

:48:53.:48:58.

can see in a much richer and deeper way the comparisons of educational

:48:59.:49:00.

performance between individuals and between areas and between schools,

:49:01.:49:06.

so that we can understand how we can best intervene to support the

:49:07.:49:09.

so that we can understand how we can development of young people within

:49:10.:49:12.

Scotland. We are involved in a conversation about how assessments

:49:13.:49:16.

can be taken forward. I am determined to take forward in our

:49:17.:49:20.

fashion that does not add to the workload of the teaching profession

:49:21.:49:24.

but actually simplifies the workload of the teaching profession, and that

:49:25.:49:29.

they do this in a fashion that we obtain meaningful comparisons about

:49:30.:49:32.

performance in different areas, so that we can see the necessary

:49:33.:49:41.

actions. I understand the point you are making but a lot of parents

:49:42.:49:44.

watching this will take the view that these have to be marked

:49:45.:49:50.

externally. You cannot have teachers marking the results of their own

:49:51.:49:54.

students or we're not going to have a proper system where we can measure

:49:55.:49:57.

the performance of schools across Scotland. Again I ask you, will be

:49:58.:50:03.

marked externally? Fundamentally qualifications framework of Scott

:50:04.:50:10.

and is independently taken forward. I have no intention of changing that

:50:11.:50:16.

position. I have no intention of directing attention away from the

:50:17.:50:21.

importance of independent certification of qualifications

:50:22.:50:21.

within Scotland. I understand that but it is a very

:50:22.:50:32.

simple question of whether these new test will be marked externally, it

:50:33.:50:36.

is a straightforward question. It will feed from age to age. When we

:50:37.:50:40.

are looking at standardised assessments which will be taken in

:50:41.:50:46.

primary one classes within Scotland I do not see the need for those to

:50:47.:50:53.

be independently... Give me a little bit of time to work out specifically

:50:54.:50:58.

the detail of how we will take that forward, Gordon, because you are

:50:59.:51:02.

asking me to go to a very precise point and I am not prepared to go

:51:03.:51:08.

there just days into the job of being the Education Secretary. I am

:51:09.:51:10.

setting out the importance of understanding the relative and

:51:11.:51:14.

comparative forms of individuals so we can use that information to

:51:15.:51:17.

support improvements with improvements required to be made. I

:51:18.:51:22.

think that is a well understood principle to make sure every young

:51:23.:51:26.

person in Scotland gets the education they deserve. Pavements

:51:27.:51:29.

will be given the results of these tests, will be, in an informative

:51:30.:51:34.

way so they can know about your child. There have been all these

:51:35.:51:37.

worries about league tables but the other side of this is that it will

:51:38.:51:42.

use this sensibly so you can take schools with similar intakes and

:51:43.:51:46.

some might be doing better than others, will pavements be given data

:51:47.:51:50.

so the norm not just how dear child is doing but whether there school

:51:51.:51:54.

might be doing better than other schools with similar intakes in the

:51:55.:52:00.

area, or worse? Parents getting a lot of information about the

:52:01.:52:03.

educational performance of their children. I am the parent of a five

:52:04.:52:07.

on child in the primary education system in Scotland and we get a

:52:08.:52:11.

tremendous amount of information from the school about the

:52:12.:52:16.

performance of our son, and he is developing, the challenges he has

:52:17.:52:18.

and the performance of the school in general so of course that will be

:52:19.:52:22.

done in a transparent fashion but the key thing is that has to be done

:52:23.:52:26.

in a consistent fashion we can see where there are steps to be required

:52:27.:52:30.

to improve performance in different parts of the country to ensure no

:52:31.:52:34.

young person in Scotland is unable to prosper through the education

:52:35.:52:39.

system anyway it would be useful for them to do so. Dean is a threat, not

:52:40.:52:46.

necessarily of strike action but of work to rule or some form of

:52:47.:52:50.

industrial action from the EIS over the workload issue, have you managed

:52:51.:52:57.

to head that off yet? I have only been in the office for four days so

:52:58.:53:02.

I have not been able to get there yet but I want to have meaningful

:53:03.:53:05.

discussions with the whole range of stakeholders. I see to everyone you

:53:06.:53:13.

have people prepared to listen to the issues and challenges. My issue

:53:14.:53:21.

is to close the attainment gap in Scottish education. I do not think

:53:22.:53:24.

of a better aim to have and I am immensely privileged to have that.

:53:25.:53:28.

Just give me a little space and time to deliver on these issues and my

:53:29.:53:34.

top by auditing. I can't believe you sat there and said all the stats you

:53:35.:53:37.

have been talking to us about 14 new tab in drab but who you are. We have

:53:38.:53:43.

undoubtedly been drab but made more drab by our conversations!

:53:44.:53:50.

One bookmakers cut the odds yesterday for a UK vote to remain

:53:51.:53:52.

But whether people vote to remain or to leave the EU,

:53:53.:53:57.

a leading academic says there are four significant issues

:53:58.:53:59.

Professor Michael Keating, of the University of Aberdeen,

:54:00.:54:02.

and Director of the Centre for Constitutional Change,

:54:03.:54:04.

is in our Edinburgh studio to explain.

:54:05.:54:10.

Hopefully without any drab statistics! Michael Keating, let's

:54:11.:54:17.

just go through them in order and see where we are. The first thing

:54:18.:54:23.

you see is the economy now there is a widespread perception that the

:54:24.:54:27.

Remain people have pretty much one the argument about that and the

:54:28.:54:32.

Leave people are keen to talk about absolutely anything else, especially

:54:33.:54:36.

immigration, is that your view? There have been a lot of things

:54:37.:54:40.

bandied about on both sides of this debate about whether or not we will

:54:41.:54:45.

be better off in or out and the fact is we do not know. Economics is not

:54:46.:54:50.

a precise signs of prediction. It depends what assumptions you make,

:54:51.:54:54.

what policy decisions are made and what the options are for remaining

:54:55.:55:00.

in or coming out, they are multiple. It is far easier to focus on the

:55:01.:55:04.

single market, the arrangement we have with the European Union which

:55:05.:55:09.

allows for a free movement of goods, services, capital and Labour and

:55:10.:55:13.

whether we really need that arrangement. Remain see we need that

:55:14.:55:20.

a deep trading arrangement with the rest of the European Union and

:55:21.:55:23.

therefore we have to accept everything that goes with it. The

:55:24.:55:27.

Leave people are divided, some say we could keep the free single market

:55:28.:55:32.

because we need it and others say we could manage perfectly well without

:55:33.:55:36.

it. Your article was really about what has to be focused on. You think

:55:37.:55:42.

the Leave people need to come up with one additive about what would

:55:43.:55:45.

happen if we vote to leave rather than these mutually exclusive

:55:46.:55:50.

narratives which they have at the moment? That only people would want

:55:51.:55:55.

to know that. One is the normally option that is you keep the single

:55:56.:55:59.

market but you have to accept all the rules of the single market, you

:56:00.:56:04.

do not have any say in making all these rules. The other option is to

:56:05.:56:05.

not have the special arrangement these rules. The other option is to

:56:06.:56:10.

with Europe. Trade on the single market under the trade organisation

:56:11.:56:14.

and go it on our own. Those are different options. Both of them are

:56:15.:56:19.

viable. Owing it alone, coming out of the European single market, would

:56:20.:56:25.

require changes in our economic structure such as New Zealand went

:56:26.:56:29.

through 30 years or so ago but they are very viable but I think people

:56:30.:56:32.

would want to know what is the option without going to get?

:56:33.:56:38.

Sovereignty is one of the other issues you identified, isn't it? You

:56:39.:56:42.

think that is one where perhaps Leave have the advantage because

:56:43.:56:46.

they can say whichever way you cut this up, whichever way you dice this

:56:47.:56:51.

Britain will have more sovereignty inside the EU than outside it? It

:56:52.:56:55.

would because it would not have too but they things that were political

:56:56.:57:02.

in this country but if we want to get the single market we have to

:57:03.:57:05.

accept the single market rules which gets us back to Norway and

:57:06.:57:10.

Switzerland which are formerly sovereign but have two up by single

:57:11.:57:13.

market rules so they really have no choice in the matter. Immigration

:57:14.:57:17.

which flows directly from that because if you are part of the

:57:18.:57:21.

single market you would in fact have to accept free movement of Labour

:57:22.:57:27.

but immigration, it is one of these big emotional issues in this debate,

:57:28.:57:33.

isn't it? Yes, and we have two separate the general issue of

:57:34.:57:36.

migration from the question of Europe the membership and the free

:57:37.:57:40.

movement of workers which is due to the European Union. A migration

:57:41.:57:46.

crisis, movement from outside the euro in union, this is another

:57:47.:57:50.

matter. One of the things David Cameron was told very firmly when he

:57:51.:57:54.

started his renegotiation was the principle of free movement of

:57:55.:57:58.

workers within the European Union is untouchable. If you want to have the

:57:59.:58:01.

rest of the free market, the single market you have to have that and

:58:02.:58:05.

Switzerland tried to reach this and was told in no uncertain terms you

:58:06.:58:10.

cannot do it. Only any cleaner really about the issues after weeks

:58:11.:58:15.

of hearing that both sides work beating each other over the heads

:58:16.:58:18.

and insulting each other than be read at the beginning? These are

:58:19.:58:23.

complex issues. These are extremely complex issues. I think we were

:58:24.:58:27.

getting close to the issue two three weeks ago folks on the single

:58:28.:58:31.

market, migration, issues of sovereignty but recently and we have

:58:32.:58:35.

still a month to go, both sides have been producing some while addictions

:58:36.:58:42.

as to what can happen taking it well beyond the issues of integration

:58:43.:58:44.

itself and the European Union talking about a terrorism, third

:58:45.:58:50.

World wards and so on. It is starting to confuse the electorate.

:58:51.:58:54.

Brian Montieth from the Leave EU campaign is in our Edinburgh

:58:55.:58:56.

studio and John Edward from Scotland Stronger in Europe

:58:57.:58:58.

Is it your view, John Edward, that the economy is your strongest suit?

:58:59.:59:11.

It is one of the strongest suits certainly because that is what an

:59:12.:59:14.

economic community and the single market was all about and where we

:59:15.:59:17.

are fairly clear that staying in this status quo gives us access and

:59:18.:59:21.

trade across the 20 member states and one thing we about on the Leave

:59:22.:59:26.

side is either is no blueprint and the White Paper. It seems to us that

:59:27.:59:30.

everyone is out of step except our job and all the international bodies

:59:31.:59:34.

and mean allies suggest for trading purposes and servers as it would be

:59:35.:59:37.

good to stay in and I think we are probably on the right of that. Ryan

:59:38.:59:41.

McGeever from your own point of view and you think it is important

:59:42.:59:43.

McGeever from your own point of view Leave side get a single narrative on

:59:44.:59:49.

what exactly it is they want us to do if we leave the European Union

:59:50.:59:53.

because as Michael Keating was pointing out the various options

:59:54.:59:56.

being pursued at the moment are mutually exclusive. Absolutely not.

:59:57.:00:02.

I think it would be a big mistake of the Leave campaign to have a single

:00:03.:00:07.

narrative. We saw in the referendum campaign for Scotland having a

:00:08.:00:12.

single narrative it became a target to be taken down. It was a wicker

:00:13.:00:17.

man that was eventually burnt to senders. I think what has to be

:00:18.:00:23.

explained as that one be bought to leave we gain that sense of

:00:24.:00:27.

sovereignty, that sense of taking control of our destiny and at that

:00:28.:00:30.

point we can negotiate and decide what our narrative can become so it

:00:31.:00:34.

is not for the weak campaigners to dig 18 additive to actually put

:00:35.:00:36.

forward what the opportunities are dig 18 additive to actually put

:00:37.:00:43.

that they can offer us and while I think that is what they should be

:00:44.:00:46.

doing I would like to see them doing more of it cause I think they have

:00:47.:00:50.

in court on the back foot in the economy and they do need to try a

:00:51.:00:54.

lot harder on it. We do have the arguments. Immigration, John Edward,

:00:55.:00:59.

that is an argument with the remains I guileless, four double closet is

:01:00.:01:04.

all very well saying if we left we would still have to have the

:01:05.:01:08.

movement of Labour but that does not get you pass the point that if we

:01:09.:01:12.

vote to remain the most certainly will have the movement of Labour and

:01:13.:01:15.

that is the thing that troubles many of the people who want to vote to

:01:16.:01:21.

get out? We will have free movement of Labour, of course, which is not

:01:22.:01:26.

the same as free movement of people. People who want to come here to work

:01:27.:01:30.

have to have a job to come to and it is exactly the same for British

:01:31.:01:33.

people who expect the same level of protection when they go overseas to

:01:34.:01:37.

work at it is important we do not allow people to complete this with

:01:38.:01:42.

the historic issue up people on the move from Syria which is a

:01:43.:01:44.

once-in-a-lifetime problem which we have to do with whether we are in

:01:45.:01:48.

Europe or out of it but a free market is something I thought a

:01:49.:01:53.

country like Scotland, very reliant on services, should be supportive of

:01:54.:01:58.

and we might talk for the best any situation where the double tear

:01:59.:02:01.

itself there's it would take years to negotiate a position. It seems an

:02:02.:02:07.

odd way to look forward. Under European law you have to have a

:02:08.:02:09.

odd way to look forward. Under to come here is not strictly true,

:02:10.:02:14.

it is not true at all, John Edward? The right of free movement applies

:02:15.:02:18.

to workers so you have the right to come here at if you're expecting the

:02:19.:02:22.

Social Security and benefits that come with what you have to have a

:02:23.:02:30.

job to come to. It is that simple. It was the same for construction

:02:31.:02:33.

workers going to Germany in the 1980s. Brian Menteith. The migration

:02:34.:02:42.

issue is important in Scotland. I can assure you the people I know who

:02:43.:02:45.

are doing public meetings are and down the country have been surprised

:02:46.:02:50.

to find at these meetings what is raised that they do not expect to be

:02:51.:02:54.

raised is the migrant, economic migrant issue. From Orkney and

:02:55.:02:58.

Shetland, Inverness, areas you might think being on the polyphony of

:02:59.:03:03.

Scotland never mind Europe, it is raised. Raised not as an issue of

:03:04.:03:08.

race or religion but he will have great concerns about the stress is

:03:09.:03:11.

placed on public services and that is why it comes up. Sovereignty,

:03:12.:03:21.

Brian Menteith, a big issue, how do you reply to the point you are in

:03:22.:03:25.

favour of staying in Natal. As part of Nato we would be committed to

:03:26.:03:29.

actually going to war under certain conditions because of that alliance

:03:30.:03:34.

and in the world we would pull sovereignty and the sovereignty we

:03:35.:03:37.

would pool in the European Union is potentially much less catastrophic

:03:38.:03:46.

than the sovereignty we rule through ordinations -- organisations like

:03:47.:03:52.

Natal. I think the main concern is that what has happened in regard to

:03:53.:03:55.

the creation of our laws and the overseeing of our laws such as

:03:56.:04:01.

minimum pricing of alcohol, we have lost the power to create our own

:04:02.:04:05.

laws. That was finally to the European court of justice so there

:04:06.:04:10.

is an issue the in comparison to the security which Nato has divided and

:04:11.:04:16.

that cataclysmic safeguard that you are illustrating has protected us

:04:17.:04:22.

but do we need that type of pooling of sovereignty to have rules about

:04:23.:04:32.

the pricing of whiskey, vodka, or Buckfast and Scottish shops? I don't

:04:33.:04:33.

think so. This is a line I have heard a few

:04:34.:04:49.

times in the last few weeks. What the European Court said it is not

:04:50.:04:52.

for them to decide if this is the best way for the Scottish

:04:53.:04:56.

Government, but the suggestion they put forward is that there are other

:04:57.:05:01.

ways than taxation. They passed it back to the national courts. Brian

:05:02.:05:05.

can chuckle all he wants but he knows that to be true. The fact that

:05:06.:05:12.

it even reached the European courts is the point. There is an equal

:05:13.:05:17.

standard of law across Europe. That is what makes it different from

:05:18.:05:22.

Nato. Brian and myself and everybody else has access to the law and its

:05:23.:05:28.

protections. It is easy to laugh at this as regulation but it matters to

:05:29.:05:33.

people's lives. Brian, if you had a different hat on, you would be

:05:34.:05:39.

saying that the SNP only wants minimum pricing because they do not

:05:40.:05:43.

have powers over taxation of alcohol. Of course they would like

:05:44.:05:46.

them because they would like independence but what they are doing

:05:47.:05:51.

is trying to get power through the back door. He would be sneering at

:05:52.:05:54.

them rather than come cleaning about the European union. I have no love

:05:55.:06:07.

for the European union -- I have no love for minimum pricing, but I

:06:08.:06:12.

think it should be taken by Scottish politicians who are accountable. It

:06:13.:06:14.

think it should be taken by Scottish should not need to be referred as it

:06:15.:06:20.

has been with those interested in spirit production, to the European

:06:21.:06:24.

Court. We should have our own sovereignty to defend that.

:06:25.:06:28.

Time to review the past week and look ahead to what's coming

:06:29.:06:30.

Joining me now is David Clegg, the Political Editor

:06:31.:06:37.

at the Daily Record, and Kieran Andrews,

:06:38.:06:38.

David, education, what did you make of what John Swinney was seeing? The

:06:39.:06:54.

most striking thing was that he was quite candid about the scale of the

:06:55.:06:59.

challenge facing him. To be honest he is underplaying it even by doing

:07:00.:07:05.

that. The attainment gap is very big already. It appears to be growing.

:07:06.:07:11.

There does not seem to be any idea of putting more resources in. The

:07:12.:07:15.

main thing you need is more teachers and smaller class sizes but that

:07:16.:07:20.

does not seem to be figuring too heavy on the radar. The other thing

:07:21.:07:24.

that I thought was interesting, it has not been clear up until now,

:07:25.:07:33.

they have staked their reputation on, it is clear they want outcomes

:07:34.:07:42.

at each stage in a child's progress including if they get into

:07:43.:07:46.

university, which is increasing the standards that they need to be

:07:47.:07:50.

judged successfully. It is a neat way of standardised testing which is

:07:51.:07:56.

proving controversial as a policy from the SNP. And if teachers are

:07:57.:08:07.

having to mark these papers as well as teach their classes day to day

:08:08.:08:13.

and do whatever else, it is not a nine until half past three job,

:08:14.:08:19.

having to mark tests will put more strain on the teacher profession and

:08:20.:08:23.

cause more headaches for John Swinney down the line. The real

:08:24.:08:28.

issue with testing is that these things to be credible have to be

:08:29.:08:34.

externally marked. Perhaps not in primary one and primary for, but he

:08:35.:08:39.

seems to concede the point that in primary seven and S3 they have to

:08:40.:08:50.

be. There is also a confused message because there will be subjective

:08:51.:08:52.

teacher view taken into account as well. The SNP seems to have a mixed

:08:53.:09:03.

message there. As I understand that what they said was that the

:09:04.:09:08.

published information about the result of the tests might be the raw

:09:09.:09:11.

published information about the data supplemented by some teacher

:09:12.:09:14.

assessment. I take your point that that inevitably makes it subjective,

:09:15.:09:19.

but of course internally they would still have the raw data, so

:09:20.:09:22.

presumably internally they would be able to say that the school which

:09:23.:09:25.

has roughly the same pupil intake as the school and it is dreadful, we

:09:26.:09:30.

had better do something about it. That brings you back to the problem

:09:31.:09:35.

of week tables, which Nicola Sturgeon said she is keen to avoid,

:09:36.:09:38.

but what is the point in collating data to judge how people are doing

:09:39.:09:42.

if you are not good to use some form of tabling? They could see the could

:09:43.:09:48.

use it internally as education managers without actually publishing

:09:49.:09:52.

it. It makes me uncomfortable that notion about how we will be able to

:09:53.:10:00.

monitor what the Government is doing if there is one set of data that is

:10:01.:10:04.

internal and another set that is different. One thing I will say

:10:05.:10:10.

about John Swinney, talking about trading data with you, he is good at

:10:11.:10:16.

picking the right data. He has had years of practice in drabness. One

:10:17.:10:21.

of the things over the course of the next few years is how opposition

:10:22.:10:25.

parties and the media keep an eye on exactly what they are doing. It is a

:10:26.:10:37.

tough one isn't it? It is not like, I will have a fight with whoever is

:10:38.:10:42.

running social services and finalise a budget. It is almost a residual

:10:43.:10:48.

attainment gap. It is a difficult thing to target and know that what

:10:49.:10:50.

you are doing is good to have the effect that you want. It is

:10:51.:10:57.

multifaceted. Coming in as Education Secretary, it is not just the

:10:58.:11:01.

attainment gap as an endgame, but you have got shortages of teachers,

:11:02.:11:05.

big class sizes, university budgets being reduced, named persons act,

:11:06.:11:14.

they just complaining about workload, there are a lot of big

:11:15.:11:19.

issues. The point about external markers, schools already struggle to

:11:20.:11:24.

get markers to mark exams. This year and they have a problem with physics

:11:25.:11:36.

markers. Let us look at a headline. I suspect you will not be getting

:11:37.:11:41.

markers. Let us look at a headline. too many Christmas cards from Stuart

:11:42.:11:46.

Hall see, but do you think all of this could stop him -- Christmas

:11:47.:12:06.

cards from Stuart Hosie. It seems there are sources breathing about

:12:07.:12:14.

the art angry at this. You see it as SNP sources. That is interesting. It

:12:15.:12:21.

is relatively rare to have people identifying as SNP sources

:12:22.:12:26.

criticising the SNP. Part of that is Stuart Hosie was part of the old

:12:27.:12:32.

guard. It would have been thought that he was a safe pair of hands

:12:33.:12:36.

guard. It would have been thought which is why he has been given this

:12:37.:12:41.

drive to raise support for independence. It will be difficult

:12:42.:12:46.

for him to take a high-profile media presence and not have this cast up

:12:47.:12:51.

to him. The other side of that as it is not clear what this campaign is

:12:52.:12:55.

supposed to amount to. When I asked Nicola Sturgeon she said, I am not

:12:56.:12:59.

telling you because I have not announced it yet. Is it a public

:13:00.:13:03.

campaign to convince people in favour of independence or is it more

:13:04.:13:10.

of a self examination by the SNP? We have not conducted any self

:13:11.:13:13.

examination of why they lost the last campaign. If it is a self

:13:14.:13:17.

examination does not mean that Stuart Hosie will still be in the

:13:18.:13:21.

running to coordinate that. He has had success with his involvement in

:13:22.:13:27.

the last two manifestos of the SNP but it is a dynamic at the top of

:13:28.:13:32.

the SNP, he is Nicola Sturgeon's deputy leader of the party,

:13:33.:13:45.

internally... Presumably David Cameron would say he wished he had

:13:46.:13:49.

that rather than Boris Johnson. We have to leave it there.

:13:50.:13:53.

I'll be back at the same time next week.

:13:54.:13:56.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS