15/05/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


15/05/2016

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comparing the mission of the European Union with

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what Hitler was trying to achieve - has the Leave campaign's self-styled

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Churchillian attack dog gone too far?

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He says leaving the European Union

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will improve the lives of the "have nots" -

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but is the man who presided over billions of pounds of welfare

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cuts really on the side of working people?

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Reducing the powers of the House of Lords

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would not be acceptable, says the woman charged with keeping order

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in the upper house - but with 60 government defeats

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in the last year alone have their Lord and Ladyships

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And coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland:

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As the dust settles on the Scottish election, we'll be speaking live

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to the Greens' Patrick Harvie about his party's plans and policies

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And with me - as always - three journalists who'd have been

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sure to win the Eurovision political punditry contest: Helen Lewis,

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Isabel Oakeshott and Amol Rajan who'll be tweeting throughout

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So earlier in the week the Prime Minister warned that

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leaving the EU could precipitate armed conflict in Europe.

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Today, Boris Johnson hits back, comparing the European Union

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to Hitler in an interview with the Sunday Telegraph:

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"Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried this out,

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The EU is an attempt to do this by different methods."

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Boris goes on to say "The euro has become a means by which superior

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German productivity is able to gain an absolutely unbeatable advantage

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Could you organise an ordinance that British politicians should just shut

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up about Hitler? It is an interesting one, the campaign are

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getting quite grumpy, saying that he was not really talking about Hitler.

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Boris is to clever not to know that if you mention Napoleon and Hitler

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people will write headlines. He is a columnist and he knows this. It is

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bizarre. It was Sadiq Khan sitting at home thinking he was the only

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London mayor was not mentioned Hitler? The campaign has become

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quite personal, it is about David Cameron's relationship with them,

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and whether he has a hope of becoming leader. And as always like

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to make things personal. It does not surprisingly in the slightest that

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it is becoming more personal as the clock ticks towards the key date. On

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Boris Johnson's comments, absolutely agree with Helen but no good can

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come of a politician mentioning Hitler, but the reaction to the

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remarks has been rather hysterical. If anyone bothers reading the

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context... In the context. The Mac was an absolutely reasonable

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statement of historical fact. We should not get to a point where

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nobody can mention anything historical without it creating a

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ridiculous action. I don't think it will be arise if it helps them win

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votes. He fancies herself as an inherent to Winston Churchill, it

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was in store. In your dreams, if the copy had come in and you had seen

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the word logo might think you have a chance for a headline. Ever since

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the collapse of the Roman Empire there have been attempts to unify

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Europe. In a way, the Germans have that... There was a slight

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difference in having endless pragmatic committees and ruling

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tanks and to Poland. By different means is quite different. He was

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arguing it was an attempt to unify Europe, it is bundled together

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different ideas. It is a bit of a stretch. But overstretch! I think

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there was a real danger... And what is the European Union, parable?

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People support Brexit would say it was an attempt to build a European

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super structure without a Democratic base. Democratic nations. It is

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completely reasonable. Ireland begins to cover girl to make

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important arguments about historical trends. Butler was Fromer remark.

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He only mentioned Napoleon. Maybe he should have mentioned other leaders.

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What do you make of the polls, showing neck and neck but they are

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so far ahead in the economic argument, and that is why we will

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win. They always hoped that. The evidence is that people put the

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economy as the highest concern. What the Leave campaign is trying to do,

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we've seen this from Nigel Farage, make the point that this is not just

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about GDP, a few extra pounds in your pocket. The Leave campaign will

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be hoping to highlight the question of what this means for society.

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Now - would leaving the European Union be good

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for the poor and disadvantaged in Britain?

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That's the case that's being made by the former Work

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and Pension Secretary Iain Duncan Smith.

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I will be talking to him in a moment.

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But first let's hear the warnings earlier this week about

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the short-term impact of Brexit on the economy

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from the Governor Bank of England, Mark Carney.

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A vote to leave the European Union could have material economic effects

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on the exchange rate, on demand, and on the economy's

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So, this combination of influences on demand,

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supply and the exchange rate could lead to a materially lower

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path for growth and a notably higher path for inflation

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than in the central projections set out in today's

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Welcome back to the Sunday Politics. You've claimed that leaving the EU

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would be good for the have nots but the Governor of the Bank of England

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says it could lead to recession, inflation, unemployment. That could

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be bad. If all the predictions were right. Every single one of these

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predictions is done by groups of people who've got most of their

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predictions wrong. The point I would make to you, the Treasury prediction

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and the IMS prediction all show that if Britain left the EU the economy

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would grow. Their argument is it would not grow as fast but how you

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can predict a 0.6% variation is beyond me. He was the point I really

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believe about the bank, which is where I find this very back. I think

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the bank, the governor has strayed into an expression of a simple,

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personal prediction. I don't think it is actually possible for you to

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say with any absolute accuracy that that will happen. In a sense, when

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you listen to what he said, he started to nuance about the idea, he

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was not seeing it actually would be comic he said he thought it could be

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about that. Here is my point about the independence of the Bank of

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England. Section ten of the 1998 act makes it very clear that if he is to

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talk about monetary policies, for which he has independence, he has to

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be open, impartial and all things must be available. Last year, in

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2015, when he spoke about the threat to the British economy, he made the

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point which Mervyn King has made that the euro instability and the

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crash has been very damaging to the British economy and will be even

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more damaging as it goes on. Notice that when he came out on Thursday he

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said nothing about the overall problems if we remained in. If

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you're going to be impartial then you had damned well better say

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something about the alternative case and the threats of remaining are

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very clear. Mervyn King said there is a crisis going on and he does not

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see an end to it. Why don't we hear from him about that? Has he breached

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his obligations as Governor of the Bank of England? I believe that he

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has. Should he resign? I think he ought to be asked why he has not

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brought out both sides of the issue. He used to work for Goldman Sachs.

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They are running through this, funding the campaign, he has been

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very clear on it. You bring out Goldman Sachs, lack of impartiality,

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you think he is not keeping his remit, should he resign? I think he

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needs to answer about this one simple charge. I would like to see

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the e-mail exchange over this issue, the telephone conversation minutes,

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to see whether the Treasury has had any involvement in this process

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whatsoever, what worries me slightly about what is going on, the Bank of

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Scotland comes out on Thursday and then suddenly the head of the IMF

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comes out on Friday with a similar prediction. These are the same

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people that were telling us all that the UK is too small to leave and too

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insignificant. Now we are so insignificant that we are plunging

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the world into an economic crash. Are we saying this was an accident?

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The governor did not call? Let me ask you this, we know what made...

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Are you saying they are colluding? I wonder. Do you have any evidence?

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Suddenly on Wednesday and Thursday, you have reports coming out, do you

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think they spoke to each other about what they are doing? I wonder about

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that. The Chancellor is supporting the governor, he then stands behind

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Christine Lagarde. We know that they are players in this. The IMF always

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works with them. We know which major economic authorities you don't like.

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The Treasury, the IMF, the Bank of England, the OECD, which major

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economic authorities do you rate? There have been some good reports

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out, there are a number of good economists, lots of others from the

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city who have produced a report which got very little coverage about

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the prospect... Any major economic apologies? Yes but when they have

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come out with these reports they have said the UK would continue to

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grow. Not as quickly. Not as quickly. My point is if you're going

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to be balanced you need to constantly reference that point and

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if they want to say that there is a possibility this could lead to a

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problem he must also point out that if we remain there is a possibility

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that we will be damaged by this. You made that .3 times. Let me ask you,

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can you name a major economic authority on your side of the

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argument? I would not expect one to be on our side. So you have none? It

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would be completely unusual for all these institutions not to want to

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act the status quo. All these institutions said there was no

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problem in 2007 and then one year later we hit the buffers and the

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economy went down. None of them predicted it. Including the

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Conservatives. None of them have apologised for their failure.

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I want to show you this chart. This shows our balance of payments, our

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deficit. It is the difference between our exports and imports. We

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import a lot more than we export in goods and services. It has

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continually got worse under your government. This deficit, which is

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multi-billion, is financed by foreigners who buy our sterling as I

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to make up the gap. If Brexit create a falling pound, why would the

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foreigners continue to pay for our deficit? If the economy didn't

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perform, why would be, but if you look at all those who predicted

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where we would be now, they all said the threat of Brexit would actually

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bring the pound crashing. The pound is now rising back up, close to

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where it was when we started this campaign. 10% on last November. We

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had this deficit, it is financed by foreigners. If they lose confidence

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in this country, confidence in Stirling, how do we pay for this? We

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have to make sure we run the economy in a way that they have confidence

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in it, we have to get some of those regulations down, we have to make

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British industry more competitive. We have to have a better plan to get

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industry working again. That would be in the long term, this could be a

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short-term problem that could hit in the summer. If it results leaving in

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an uncontrolled, plummeting sterling, and the foreigners because

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of the uncertainty and sterling going down are saying we are not

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going to continue to finance it, the bank would have to raise interest

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rates, wouldn't it? If that was the circumstance, yes, but it is what

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you plan to do. Why are they investing in what we are doing at

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the moment? They buy the bonds because they believe the Government

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has a long-term plan to get the deficit down and reduce borrowing.

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Therefore they believe the UK is a good investment and running a trade

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surplus with the rest of the world. We are running a huge deficit. Yes,

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but we are running a trade surplus. If they need to finance this

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deficit, and it is not the budget deficit, it is how the foreigners by

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our assets in order to help us run this deficit. If interest rate did

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rise, it follows that mortgage rates could rise substantially. Yes but

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the alternative could be the same, in other words if they believe what

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we are doing is right for the economy they are prepared to back

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it, which means you wouldn't have rising interest rates. All of this

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is speculation because we don't know. Boris Johnson has admitted

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that after Brexit there would be a Nike tick, that he believes the

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economy would take a hit, but it would recover strongly. Do you

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believe that? Possibly but this is speculation about something nobody

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knows. There has been speculation about forecast in these economies,

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most of them are wrong because people are unable to tell us about

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what they think about our prospects afterwards. If we vote to leave, we

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are already able to show we can get our money back in due course and we

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are able to start planning our own economy so we are able to get the

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kind of deals we need. That shows you have a plan that works. You

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could offer short-term crisis in the interim, couldn't you? They are

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worried whether their mortgage will have risen by August or September of

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this year. If that were to happen but the word is if. This is pure

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speculation. The point I am making is that the reality is it may go in

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the opposite direction. Nobody can say that. The EU guarantees a number

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of social protections for workers, covering things like equal pay,

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working time, maternity pay. Can you pledged to fight to maintain all of

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these protections if we leave? All of these were accepted by the

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Conservative government and I believe strongly then need to be

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protections for workers. All of these things in a democracy are

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debated but the British government have actually themselves instituted

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protections for workers. So would you fight to keep the protections

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they currently have under EU guarantees? As it stands, yes. Why

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should people trust you because you opposed the Web Time directive in

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1996, and voted against the minimum wage in 1997. Why would they have

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not looked to you for this social protection? Because rather than

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forecast ahead, look back at what has happened to them. The

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immigration has damaged them. I'm simply saying what has happened,

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therefore my argument has been, and you have known that over a long

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time, over nine years I have argued this process has been most damaging

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to the people at the low skilled end. That is the migration issue, it

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may well be true. I'm asking you why should people trust you on these EU

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social protections that they would remain if we came out since you

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voted against them when they were being proposed? The working Time

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directive gave little or no flexibility at the time. It has been

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in place and we had to work with it. You protect the workforce but you

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make sure the competition that they face in terms of their jobs is

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actually fair competition, not unfair competition. What has

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happened, as you saw on Thursday with the national insurance numbers,

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is a very high proportion of people coming in in under 52 weeks here who

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have no commitment to the UK often staying in bed sits, compete on the

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low salary end of life. Is the working Time directive, which

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guarantees the hours people work in a week and proper breaks, is that

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guarantees the hours people work in safe after Brexit or not? UK law

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would enshrine what we think is best for protection of workforce and that

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is right. A democratic government will decide on what it thinks is

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right. That is possible for Labour or Conservative. I believe it is

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right to have it, the question is how flexible... People watching this

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will not be reassured by this. I will stick to the agreements we

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have. You point your fist in the Commons when the Chancellor

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announced the new national living wage, now you say it is a magnet for

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migrants, what changed? I said it is a good people for people wanting to

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come and work here because they will get a higher wage. I am wholly in

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favour of a rise to the minimum wage because I believe that over time

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what happens to businesses is they have got around paying lower

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wages... Would you still be in favour of it if we stayed in the EU?

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Yes, because it is the best way you can drive the wages up but if we

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stay in the EU it will become a magnet for people to come in here

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and it will lead to huge problems. The point I made on Tuesday this

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week was that have we have seen already lots of people from the EU

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tend to come in. The vast majority of people coming from the European

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Union into the UK, they tend to be low skills, they tend to be ones

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taking a high proportion of those low skilled jobs. They have taken

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them at lesser salary and driven it down. The overall average wage will

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still be low for those on low skills. You have brought up

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migration several times in this interview, isn't the blunt truth,

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because I was asking about the economics, you are losing the

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economic arguments, the polls show that, you are more dependent on

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scaring people. John Major says: What do you say? Rubbish. Very

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simple, he is talking nonsense. He said only a few years ago that there

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was a real issue over immigration. The Government had a target to get

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tens of thousands, the limit down to tens of thousands, we are not

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achieving that. We talked about it in the run-up to the election. The

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Prime Minister himself made a strong commitment that we would ensure our

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borders were protected against people coming to be here so it is

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nonsense because we are not raising this is an issue because we are

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trying to win the referendum. Most people in the country believes there

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is an issue about the open border with the European Union. Why is it

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demagoguery, why is it extremism to speak for British people who feel

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like their views are being tossed aside? If you don't do it, the

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extreme parties get onto it. Was it wise Boris Johnson to compare the

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EU's ambitions? I thought it was a good article because he spoke about

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this nonsensical... Was it wise to compare it with Hitler? Do you think

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Hitler's efforts to unify Europe are the same as the European Union's

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efforts? I think the whole process of trying to drive Europe together

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by force or democracy ultimately makes problems. Isn't this

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referendum getting vaguely absurd? We have the Prime Minister dangling

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the thought of world War three if we leave, and on your side we have

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Boris Johnson saying Hitler and the European Union are on the same

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script. It is both nonsense and you know that. All he is doing in the

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interview is talking about the trend towards the idea, and he's using

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historical parallels to explain it. You go through this great idea that

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somehow there is a thing called greater Europe. Whether or not you

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like the linguistics of this, my point remains the same. If you vote

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to remain on the 23rd, you are voting, the 12 residents said it

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clear that they intend to deepen... The five presidents. The five

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presidents rather. David Cameron and George Osborne won't debate other

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Tory ministers during the referendum, are they concerned about

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party unity or just running scared? You will have to ask them. My view

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about it is that it is right to have a proper debate and by not opening

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that debate the British public will be left to wonder why they were not

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allowed to see the two opposing sides of the argument from the

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leading figures. You would debate the Prime Minister? Yes, we need to

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get these things straight face-to-face. After all, if this

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were an election would be Remain side be allowed to say we won't

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debate Ed Miliband fustian might know, they cannot do that. There are

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two side to this argument, if two sides have to debate it that is

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right and proper. It should be down to impartiality that we have two

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sides, the two sets of leaders. Iain Duncan Smith, thank you.

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Now, the Commons are elected, the House of Lords are not

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and is supposed to be a "revising chamber".

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But have their lord and ladyships been overstepping the mark?

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Over the the past year, they've inflicted 60 defeats

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on a Government that's now poised to clip the Lord's wings -

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reducing their power to block changes in the law.

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But in an exclusive interview before she steps down as the speaker

:27:30.:27:32.

of the House of Lords in the summer, Baroness D'Souza has told us

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that the powers of the Lords should not be curtailed.

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It's very obvious why they are called the crossbenchers,

:27:39.:27:46.

My guide knows this place pretty well, how it works, who's who.

:27:47.:27:53.

Since 2011, she's been Lord Speaker, a role which involves

:27:54.:27:55.

overseeing proceedings here, representing the Lords at home

:27:56.:27:57.

and abroad, and sitting on a sack of wool.

:27:58.:28:03.

But the business in here over which Baroness D'Souza presides has

:28:04.:28:10.

come under increasing criticism from the Government.

:28:11.:28:14.

247 members of the House of Lords sit as Conservatives peers,

:28:15.:28:17.

making the governing party a significant minority of the 807

:28:18.:28:19.

members eligible to take part in the Upper House.

:28:20.:28:26.

The Government has faced 60 defeats in the House of Lords in the most

:28:27.:28:30.

The rate of defeats this time round is more than twice that

:28:31.:28:34.

Then, the Government was defeated in less than a quarter

:28:35.:28:40.

of votes compared to more than half in the present one.

:28:41.:28:44.

Now there's a sense that the Lords are too rebellious, they have been

:28:45.:28:48.

too rebellious over the last few years and essentially the Lords

:28:49.:28:50.

You know, all governments and all parliamentarians,

:28:51.:28:54.

or at least House of Commons, always feel that the House of Lords

:28:55.:29:01.

is a place that thwarts them in one way or another.

:29:02.:29:04.

And they're right, they do, but that is in the nature

:29:05.:29:09.

They have all the power and rightly so.

:29:10.:29:17.

I still think it's right that the Lords should be free

:29:18.:29:20.

to scrutinise and to question and to hold the Government

:29:21.:29:23.

to account, and to send back legislation which it feels is not

:29:24.:29:27.

adequate, either in terms of its clarity or because perhaps it

:29:28.:29:32.

infringes from time to time individual liberties

:29:33.:29:34.

And that's exactly what happened last October.

:29:35.:29:41.

The House of Lords effectively blocked the Government's proposed

:29:42.:29:43.

changes to tax credits, a massive blow to George

:29:44.:29:46.

Unelected Labour and Liberal Lords have voted down a matter passed

:29:47.:29:53.

by the elected House of Commons, that raises constitutional issues

:29:54.:29:56.

and David Cameron and I are clear they will need to be dealt with.

:29:57.:30:00.

The way they dealt with it was to ask Lord Strathclyde

:30:01.:30:03.

He concluded peers should lose their absolute veto over

:30:04.:30:07.

detailed laws known as secondary legislation, and instead be allowed

:30:08.:30:11.

only to send it back to the Commons to think again.

:30:12.:30:14.

There's going to be a lively debate about this in the House of Lords

:30:15.:30:18.

and I think that there will be a lot of views expressed and obviously

:30:19.:30:22.

you would expect the Lords to want to retain their power

:30:23.:30:24.

to scrutinise their power, their privilege.

:30:25.:30:28.

If you start curtailing or eroding or limiting the power

:30:29.:30:33.

of the Lords to do its job, there is a question

:30:34.:30:37.

There is another question, too, over the sheer number

:30:38.:30:46.

Baroness D'Souza told me she would be pushing for a Lords

:30:47.:30:50.

motion in the new session, she says the House of Lords should

:30:51.:30:53.

not be larger than the Commons, suggesting the number of peers

:30:54.:30:56.

At least 20% of them should be independents or crossbenchers,

:30:57.:31:00.

and no one party should have a political majority.

:31:01.:31:03.

She said all of that can be achieved by 2020.

:31:04.:31:06.

So, the size is making it inefficient?

:31:07.:31:08.

It does have an impact unfortunately on the role of the House of Lords

:31:09.:31:19.

in holding the Government to account.

:31:20.:31:22.

It's very difficult if you're limited to sort of say,

:31:23.:31:24.

in timed debates, a minute or two minutes to speak, to develop

:31:25.:31:27.

a sustained argument which will convince your fellow

:31:28.:31:29.

peers but also the Government of what it is you are

:31:30.:31:32.

The traditional pomp and ceremony of the Lords is well known

:31:33.:31:36.

but its relationship with the Commons and exactly

:31:37.:31:38.

what role it can play in the future is far more uncertain.

:31:39.:31:45.

And the man who was charged by the Government to review

:31:46.:31:47.

the Lord's powers, Tam Strathclyde, joins us now from Oxfordshire.

:31:48.:31:52.

Welcome to the programme. Nice to see the sun is shining rate you are.

:31:53.:32:01.

We've just heard, what would be the point of the Lloyds if the powers

:32:02.:32:07.

are watered down as your review proposes. What do you say to her?

:32:08.:32:14.

There is no suggestion and no recommendation by anybody in

:32:15.:32:16.

government to fundamentally change the powers of the House of Lords. I

:32:17.:32:24.

made the most mild and humble recommendation about process, where

:32:25.:32:31.

frankly most of us had understood that the customs and conventions

:32:32.:32:37.

that had been built up would stick. Last October, they broke down, as a

:32:38.:32:42.

result there is no consensus and agreement on what those powers could

:32:43.:32:51.

be. I propose a new power to be able to reject and ask. What is

:32:52.:33:00.

interesting is every school child knows that the purpose of the House

:33:01.:33:09.

of Lords is to scrutinise but not to block. What happened was the House

:33:10.:33:15.

of Lords using a veto and given it is unelected, I don't think that

:33:16.:33:21.

power should ever be used. Is the government going to implement your

:33:22.:33:25.

recommendations? Since I reported before Christmas there have been

:33:26.:33:32.

four further reports, three in the House of Lords and one in the House

:33:33.:33:38.

of Commons, commenting on this. I think what the government will want

:33:39.:33:41.

to do is look carefully at these reports before responding. I don't

:33:42.:33:46.

think there needs to be a rush to legislation, and there may well be

:33:47.:33:47.

an attempt to get an agreement between the parties in the House of

:33:48.:33:54.

Lords, between the two Houses of Parliament. But if that consensus

:33:55.:34:00.

cannot be reached, I think the government will have no option but

:34:01.:34:07.

to legislate on this matter. Your government has had 60 defeats at the

:34:08.:34:11.

hands of the Lords. You wonder whether the conservative tune has

:34:12.:34:15.

changed because it was Tory peers inflicting defeat on Labour

:34:16.:34:19.

governments. Now you are getting a taste of your own historic medicine,

:34:20.:34:25.

you just don't like it. I was Leader of the Opposition for most of those

:34:26.:34:36.

years, particularly after the end of the last century. We did defeat the

:34:37.:34:48.

government regularly on primary legislation, not secondary

:34:49.:34:50.

legislation. What was interesting in your package is the government has

:34:51.:34:55.

been defeated in the House of Lords many more times than it did in the

:34:56.:35:00.

first Parliament of Tony Blair's government. Over half of all the

:35:01.:35:06.

votes in the House of Lords are defeated. This is not revision and

:35:07.:35:10.

scrutiny, this is not complementing the work of the House of Commons,

:35:11.:35:15.

this is an aggressive political statement why the other political

:35:16.:35:21.

parties. Is it really? This is a government which increasingly brings

:35:22.:35:23.

forward ill thought out ideas which it has not planned in advance, not

:35:24.:35:31.

without consultation, and is forced into U-turns. There has been a

:35:32.:35:35.

series of them. That is why you need a second chamber, to do proper

:35:36.:35:42.

scrutiny. I am the greatest defender of the second chamber and indeed, a

:35:43.:35:47.

Conservative Party that fully understands the central tenets of

:35:48.:35:54.

the Constitution, the balance between the houses, but what we've

:35:55.:35:58.

seen in the last 12 months, and remember, this is the first 12

:35:59.:36:02.

months of a new conservative administration, people who were

:36:03.:36:06.

elected to government, scarcely one year ago, and what we've seen in the

:36:07.:36:13.

House of Lords are blocking tactics, using vetoes rather than working

:36:14.:36:16.

with the House of Commons in order to improve that legislation which

:36:17.:36:24.

you rightly criticise. Are you a supporter of the way that

:36:25.:36:28.

governments have bloated the House of Lords? There are over 800 active

:36:29.:36:34.

peers. The US Senate needs 100 and it has real power. You've not got

:36:35.:36:38.

much power and those over 800 of you. Is that sensible? When Mr Blair

:36:39.:36:46.

and his friends throughout the hereditary peers in the 1990s I did

:36:47.:36:51.

argue that there was an inevitable consequence that prime ministers

:36:52.:36:55.

would try to increase their own numbers in the house. What's

:36:56.:36:58.

interesting about Mr Cameron is he has created far more Labour peers.

:36:59.:37:11.

Wide of the need to be 800 of you? You don't. -- why does there need to

:37:12.:37:19.

be 800. But those who want to reduce it to 500 should say how they plan

:37:20.:37:23.

to do that. I would prefer either people to be involved in the

:37:24.:37:26.

decision and they should be directly elected. Thank you for joining us.

:37:27.:37:30.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:31.:37:32.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:33.:37:41.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:37:42.:37:43.

We'll be speaking live to the Greens' Patrick Harvie

:37:44.:37:47.

about how his MSPs will approach their role in the new parliament,

:37:48.:37:50.

With the Holyrood election over, the next choice before voters -

:37:51.:37:56.

We'll debate the case for and against Brexit,

:37:57.:38:07.

And we'll meet a couple of the new faces who've joined

:38:08.:38:11.

The dust is settling on the result of just over a week ago.

:38:12.:38:16.

The Greens trebled their number of MSPs from two in the last

:38:17.:38:19.

Not quite matching the peak of seven they held from 2003,

:38:20.:38:23.

And they've displaced the Liberal Democrats

:38:24.:38:27.

I'm joined now by the co-convenor of the Scottish Greens, Patrick Harvie.

:38:28.:38:34.

Tell us what is going on. You had a meeting with Nicola Sturgeon this

:38:35.:38:44.

week. I had a brief meeting, nothing terribly formal, the kind of thing

:38:45.:38:48.

that happened for months even during the period of majority government.

:38:49.:38:52.

Political parties talk about things all the time. Presumably were

:38:53.:38:57.

talking about cooperation in the new parliament. I think the dynamic will

:38:58.:39:02.

change. It will not be quite the same as the previous minority

:39:03.:39:06.

government when the SNP were in deep minority and unless they could get a

:39:07.:39:11.

deal with Labour on any issue they had to reach out to build consensus

:39:12.:39:17.

with any two out of the three other parties. It is a slightly more

:39:18.:39:22.

straightforward situation now where the SNP only have to persuade one

:39:23.:39:30.

party to vote or abstain. If political parties go around

:39:31.:39:32.

posturing saying they will block this or that they will not get far.

:39:33.:39:40.

Opposition parties will be influential by being constructive.

:39:41.:39:47.

Are you considering even a semiformal arrangement with the SNP

:39:48.:39:50.

or will you judge everything issue by issue? Semiformal arrangements

:39:51.:40:01.

aren't even been discussed. I think the Friday after the election the

:40:02.:40:08.

first minister said clearly they would not seek an arrangement with

:40:09.:40:15.

another party. I think the SNP's position is clear, to be a menorah

:40:16.:40:18.

take government with great flexibility. I suspect if you were

:40:19.:40:23.

in their shoes you wouldn't be seeking to tie yourself to a

:40:24.:40:26.

relationship with just one party. That's why think it is going to be

:40:27.:40:30.

about positivity and constructivist opposition parties will conduct

:40:31.:40:40.

themselves. Is it theoretically possible you could put the

:40:41.:40:44.

Government down whether other opposition parties? Can you see

:40:45.:40:48.

yourself taking part in something like a vote of no-confidence? I

:40:49.:40:53.

think there would have to be an astonishing breach of trust to

:40:54.:40:58.

justify a vote of no-confidence. I think it is a little early to be

:40:59.:41:01.

talking about events that cataclysmic. Over the next few weeks

:41:02.:41:09.

and months I think we will see times where opposition parties may have

:41:10.:41:13.

common ground, such as Parliamentary reform. One issue that came up this

:41:14.:41:19.

week, cutting off air passenger duty. As far as I understand the SNP

:41:20.:41:27.

want to do what the SNP want to do. Presently, as proposed by the

:41:28.:41:31.

Scottish Government, is that policy toast? They do not have a majority

:41:32.:41:41.

for their position, scrapping the duty. That is why I come back to the

:41:42.:41:53.

idea of it being constructive. It is not an effective environmental tax

:41:54.:41:56.

in the first place, air passenger duty. One option is that we can find

:41:57.:42:03.

an alternative policy which can command a parliamentary majority,

:42:04.:42:09.

which passes the test of emissions and social justice. How could you

:42:10.:42:15.

cut duty in a way that actually reduces emissions? Perhaps it is

:42:16.:42:21.

about one of the ideas the new economics foundation talked about, a

:42:22.:42:26.

frequent levy. Most of the burden would fall on those who take the

:42:27.:42:29.

largest number of unnecessary short-haul flights. The males of the

:42:30.:42:37.

most important for the economy. If people have an alternative, the

:42:38.:42:40.

railways, which is economically beneficial because it allows these

:42:41.:42:46.

highly paid important people to actually do some work travelling,

:42:47.:42:49.

which you can't really do on an aeroplane trip to London. If people

:42:50.:42:56.

see railways is the affordable alternative more people will choose

:42:57.:43:01.

that. There are ways of using taxation, to achieve a behavioural

:43:02.:43:09.

change, in this case to reduce emissions, and a social justice

:43:10.:43:15.

change. If the SNP can talk about alternatives, they have the

:43:16.:43:18.

opportunity to replace air passenger duty with something better. If they

:43:19.:43:22.

want to dig their heels in and say our way or nothing then nothing is

:43:23.:43:28.

likely to happen. Independence. You are the balance of power on the

:43:29.:43:31.

issue of the second referendum because you're the only party that

:43:32.:43:36.

might be in favour of it. Do you understand the SNP palsy on the

:43:37.:43:42.

second referendum? As far as I know, the First Minister's statement seems

:43:43.:43:46.

broadly sensible that those of us who supported independence didn't

:43:47.:43:49.

manage to convince people last time and we have work to do to convince

:43:50.:43:55.

people. If Britain votes to leave the EU and Scotland to stay, would

:43:56.:43:59.

you be in favour of a second referendum? The SNP appear to see it

:44:00.:44:07.

as a material change but also they wouldn't want money unless the polls

:44:08.:44:11.

were going their way. I don't think that is the most likely future

:44:12.:44:16.

scenario in which we would choose. I know you don't want me to get into

:44:17.:44:23.

which way the EU referendum will go but the less talked about scenario

:44:24.:44:32.

is that the UK stays in the EU as a result of Scottish votes, that might

:44:33.:44:39.

be more of an argument and about Scottish independence because the

:44:40.:44:41.

right wing of the Tory party would have far less interest in keeping

:44:42.:44:46.

the UK together. I support independence and so does the

:44:47.:44:49.

Scottish Green Party and if and when a referendum comes along it is the

:44:50.:44:54.

only fair way to settle the question. Would you back a second

:44:55.:45:01.

referendum. It is something we like to see in the future. You have a

:45:02.:45:04.

referendum. It is something we like tiny minority in Parliament, it we

:45:05.:45:10.

had a referendum a year and a half ago and the argument is that

:45:11.:45:14.

something very substantial and have to change and a minority party

:45:15.:45:17.

shouldn't really hold the balance on a huge issue like this. Every MSP

:45:18.:45:25.

gets the same number of votes in parliament. The point is that the

:45:26.:45:35.

situation you are describing as the large extent the reason why both the

:45:36.:45:39.

SNP and I think many of the rest of us in this rather pro-independence

:45:40.:45:41.

movement are recognising there is more work to do in convincing people

:45:42.:45:46.

to stop for example, acknowledging some of the weakness in the SNP's

:45:47.:45:55.

2014 case in currency. Even Alex Salmond acknowledged that further

:45:56.:45:58.

work is needed to ensure there is a viable and compelling proposition.

:45:59.:46:05.

What about offensive behaviour on football matches legislation? Did

:46:06.:46:11.

you get together with opposition parties and end or get rid of it? We

:46:12.:46:17.

voted against it. I think it is a bad piece of legislation. I think

:46:18.:46:21.

there is an opportunity to repeal the worst of it. I suspect a justice

:46:22.:46:29.

committee process may be better than scrapping it all together. But he

:46:30.:46:34.

would like to scrap it? There are two parts. The offensive behaviour

:46:35.:46:39.

could staff has been the most contentious and I would like to see

:46:40.:46:43.

an alternative approach to sectarianism which would be more

:46:44.:46:49.

effective. There is also the threatening communications stuff and

:46:50.:46:51.

although I have problems with it I think it should be amended rather

:46:52.:46:55.

than repealed. A justice committee process would put it in the hands of

:46:56.:47:00.

a cross-party body of people with government voices but also the

:47:01.:47:02.

majority from political parties who were against that legislation, one

:47:03.:47:07.

that would allow the thing not just to become one MSP's personal project

:47:08.:47:12.

but a more reflective situation. I think we would get a better outcome

:47:13.:47:17.

with a committee process. It has been awhile since committees have

:47:18.:47:20.

initiated legislation and they should do more. 2002 I believe. Well

:47:21.:47:24.

remembered. It's not long till Scotland will be

:47:25.:47:26.

back at the ballot box. A short time ago I spoke

:47:27.:47:29.

to the SNP's Justice and Home Affairs Spokesperson

:47:30.:47:33.

at Westminster, Joanna Cherry, and to former Conservative Scottish

:47:34.:47:35.

Secretary Lord Forsyth, currently campaigning

:47:36.:47:37.

for Vote Leave. I started by asking Lord Forsyth

:47:38.:47:40.

for his reaction to Boris Johnson's comments, comparing

:47:41.:47:43.

the EU's aims to Hitler's. I think what he was trying to say

:47:44.:47:54.

was that there isn't a European demos and if you try to force people

:47:55.:48:00.

into one country with different economies and cultures and there

:48:01.:48:03.

will be trouble and traditionally wear that has happened that has

:48:04.:48:07.

proved to be disastrous. Could he perhaps have expressed himself in a

:48:08.:48:12.

slightly different manner? His colourful way of expressing himself

:48:13.:48:15.

as one of the reasons that in tears into people. Sometimes it offends

:48:16.:48:22.

people, sometimes it makes people cheerful, but the basic point he is

:48:23.:48:26.

making, the attempt to make a country called Europe, which has had

:48:27.:48:29.

disastrous consequences for the Greeks, Spanish, Portuguese and

:48:30.:48:33.

others, 50% unemployment across Europe, and I think the five

:48:34.:48:39.

residents report, worth googling, which sets out the agenda of what is

:48:40.:48:50.

necessary to preserve the euro, resulting in catastrophic effects of

:48:51.:48:53.

the people of Europe and giving succour to extremist parties. I

:48:54.:48:59.

thought it was quite an extraordinarily ill-advised thing

:49:00.:49:03.

for Boris Johnson to say. Particularly in light of recent

:49:04.:49:04.

comments from Ken Livingstone. Particularly in light of recent

:49:05.:49:09.

suspect Michael Forsyth agrees with that but as to diplomatic to say.

:49:10.:49:15.

I'm not usually diplomatic! It is not a ludicrous comparison because

:49:16.:49:20.

the EU is about agreement and consensus and it is brought relative

:49:21.:49:27.

peace to Europe in the last 60 years. -- it is ludicrous. It has

:49:28.:49:35.

brought a common market of 5 million consumers to Scotland which is

:49:36.:49:40.

beneficial to the economy. It ensures the whole of the UK enjoy

:49:41.:49:45.

social protections, employment and human rights, which we probably

:49:46.:49:49.

wouldn't otherwise enjoy giving this right wing government at the moment.

:49:50.:49:52.

You didn't appreciate Boris Johnson's comments. What I'd like to

:49:53.:50:00.

know is what you think should the vote to go to leave the EU, what

:50:01.:50:06.

Britain should do? There are different views about whether we

:50:07.:50:09.

should be part of the single market, have some arrangement whereby we

:50:10.:50:15.

have to have free movement of labour or whether we completely get out of

:50:16.:50:19.

it and negotiate trade agreements with other countries, without being

:50:20.:50:23.

part of the single market. Where are you on that spectrum?

:50:24.:50:29.

It's extraordinary to hear a Scottish National Party run the case

:50:30.:50:36.

for an unelected Brussels bureaucracy. I think we should be

:50:37.:50:40.

able to decide a own laws and spent our own money. And the moment we are

:50:41.:50:44.

contributing ?10 billion net to be told what to do and have our laws

:50:45.:50:49.

over ridden. Does that mean you would not like to have an agreement

:50:50.:50:54.

for the Britain outside the EU to have an agreement in the way that

:50:55.:50:59.

Norway or any different model Switzerland have? Norwegians pay

:51:00.:51:02.

lots of money in and have to do a lot of what the European Union says.

:51:03.:51:08.

Norway and Switzerland are tiny, we are the fifth largest economy in the

:51:09.:51:13.

world with huge relationships around the Commonwealth and elsewhere. The

:51:14.:51:15.

single market is an agreement between 28 countries in order to

:51:16.:51:21.

have common standards for products. The Americans export into Google,

:51:22.:51:25.

the Chinese exporting to Europe. It means that within Europe you have

:51:26.:51:29.

one common approach to particular products. That would still exist if

:51:30.:51:35.

we were out. You think we should be any system which for example keeps

:51:36.:51:41.

free of labour? Absolutely not. We had to gain control of our own

:51:42.:51:48.

Borders. We should be able to decide who comes into this country, we

:51:49.:51:52.

should be able to throw people out from this country who are a threat

:51:53.:51:56.

to security and to our way of life and we should be able to decide our

:51:57.:52:00.

own laws and not be subject to a foreign court. Perhaps you can cheat

:52:01.:52:08.

at the SNP's position because when it comes to Europe, the SNP doesn't

:52:09.:52:11.

seem to like it very much. They don't want the euro, you don't like

:52:12.:52:18.

the common fisheries policy but when it comes to Britain you can't get

:52:19.:52:21.

enough of it, you want an independent Scotland to have the

:52:22.:52:26.

pound, you're quite happy to have financial regulation by authorities

:52:27.:52:30.

in London, UK going on about a social union with the UK. Why is it

:52:31.:52:34.

you want to leave the UK and stay in Europe rather than the other way

:52:35.:52:39.

around? We want to leave the United Kingdom because we're not an equal

:52:40.:52:42.

partner in the latest kingdom. We would like to remain a member of

:52:43.:52:45.

Europe because we would like to be on an equal footing with other

:52:46.:52:48.

member states and I would like to take Lord Forsyth upon something he

:52:49.:52:52.

has said repeatedly. It is not true to say the laws are made by

:52:53.:52:58.

unelected bureaucrats. The laws are proposed by the commission. My point

:52:59.:53:04.

is the SNP actually isn't in favour of any of the key institutions of

:53:05.:53:08.

the contemporary European Union. That's simply not correct. If you

:53:09.:53:12.

would let me finish, it is not correct to say that Europe is not

:53:13.:53:16.

democratic. The laws are proposed by the commission which has 28

:53:17.:53:19.

commissioners appointed by member states to go to the council which

:53:20.:53:23.

consist of ministers from the directly elected members of the

:53:24.:53:27.

member state and they are then considered by the Parliament, which

:53:28.:53:30.

consists of directly elected members of the European Parliament. It is

:53:31.:53:34.

not correct to say it is not democratic. However, it is open to

:53:35.:53:38.

improvement and the SNP have been clean about that. Next year, the

:53:39.:53:41.

native kingdom of all the presidency of the European Council. If we are

:53:42.:53:47.

wise enough to stay part of Europe. That is a great opportunity for the

:53:48.:53:50.

United Kingdom to lead the way on reform. He mentioned the common

:53:51.:53:54.

fisheries policy. You're absolutely right to say the SNP are very

:53:55.:53:58.

unhappy with the way in which that has been conducted but that is the

:53:59.:54:01.

fault of the United Kingdom Government who have simply not going

:54:02.:54:05.

to -- gone into bat properly for fishermen in Scotland. What we like

:54:06.:54:14.

to see in the future is a Scottish minister from the Scottish

:54:15.:54:18.

Government carrying out negotiations with fisheries policies. The

:54:19.:54:22.

fisheries policy is one of the pillars of the European Union. They

:54:23.:54:27.

might be able to change the way it operates but the basic principle of

:54:28.:54:31.

it as far as I understand it, certainly Alex Salmond was against,

:54:32.:54:34.

you cannot be a member of the European Union without signing up to

:54:35.:54:40.

it. Alex was very clear last week. He gave a keynote speech in Brussels

:54:41.:54:43.

and was very clean about what she wanted to see happen in the common

:54:44.:54:47.

fisheries policy and he said he wanted to see the United Kingdom

:54:48.:54:51.

alone Scottish ministers who know about the fishing industry in

:54:52.:54:54.

Scotland to negotiate on Scotland's behalf. The UK Government in the

:54:55.:54:59.

past considered the fishing industry in Scotland expendable and we have

:55:00.:55:02.

been on the back foot from the outset. I do not believe the

:55:03.:55:05.

fisheries policy could not be made to work better for Scotland but that

:55:06.:55:09.

will only work better if we have a member from the Scottish Government

:55:10.:55:14.

is making a washy oceans rather than an analog -- unelected peer --

:55:15.:55:26.

making negotiations. There is an attempt to minimise this but

:55:27.:55:30.

everyone from Mark Carney dam is saying there is a serious risk. Now

:55:31.:55:35.

he isn't. This morning he refused to say although the bank has the

:55:36.:55:40.

capacity to do so, what the long-term benefit to benefit would

:55:41.:55:49.

be if we left the EU. All he is saying that in the short-term there

:55:50.:55:53.

may be a shock that people may put off decisions because of the

:55:54.:55:56.

uncertainty. He is only looking at the short term and he is using

:55:57.:55:59.

exactly the same models as the Treasury and the IMF and everyone

:56:00.:56:05.

else. It's not a question of models, it's accepted that companies are

:56:06.:56:08.

holding off investing until they find out which way it goes. And the

:56:09.:56:13.

IMF and people with their models are saying there could be great

:56:14.:56:16.

uncertainty and difficulty. It would be surprising if they did not create

:56:17.:56:19.

the effect which they are saying may arise. On the common fisheries

:56:20.:56:29.

policy, it means that our fisheries Ali common resource. I'd say the

:56:30.:56:33.

European Union, the Scottish Government will be able to decide

:56:34.:56:38.

what the quarters and arrangements are. The Council of ministers,

:56:39.:56:42.

Britain has voted 70 times against measures in the Council of ministers

:56:43.:56:47.

and been defeated on 70 occasions. The idea of an independent Scotland

:56:48.:56:51.

having an influence is nonsense. This business about the economy. The

:56:52.:56:57.

argument is that there may be some short-term shenanigans because

:56:58.:57:00.

people are holding off decisions on investment and eight be a head to

:57:01.:57:03.

the small market if there was a vote to leave,, but over the years the

:57:04.:57:12.

effect would be minimal. I disagree, I think they would be a considerable

:57:13.:57:18.

period of uncertainty but what Lord Forsyth and his friends in the

:57:19.:57:22.

Brexit movement is simply unachievable. Countries like Norway

:57:23.:57:25.

and Switzerland which are part of the European economic area are still

:57:26.:57:30.

subject to EU regulations, they just don't have any say in how they are

:57:31.:57:38.

made. One of the big part of the Brexit movement to prevent

:57:39.:57:40.

immigration to Britain is that they don't realise if you want to be part

:57:41.:57:43.

of the European economic area you had to accept the movement as well

:57:44.:57:48.

so they are putting the United Kingdom and Scottish economy into

:57:49.:57:50.

jeopardy to achieve the unachievable. Thank you both very

:57:51.:57:53.

much indeed. Now while some may have suggested

:57:54.:57:54.

the Holyrood election campaign was a little dull,

:57:55.:57:56.

there was no mistaking the buzz at parliament this week

:57:57.:58:00.

as the victors arrived I'm joined from Edinburgh by two

:58:01.:58:02.

of them - Alex Cole-Hamilton, who won Edinburgh Western

:58:03.:58:09.

for the Liberal Democrats, and Jenny Gilruth of the SNP,

:58:10.:58:11.

who is the new MSP for Jenny Gilruth, was this your first

:58:12.:58:27.

thing standing in an election? Yes, an interesting experience for me as

:58:28.:58:32.

a first-time candidate but a great experience to be a part of. What was

:58:33.:58:38.

it like? The ready teacher before Benji? I was in modern studies

:58:39.:58:44.

teacher, a head of Department, so it is a change from my day job. We are

:58:45.:58:51.

getting involved in meetings, getting to know her Parliament

:58:52.:58:55.

works, meeting with new MPs across the political divide. It has been a

:58:56.:59:03.

fantastic experience. It must be difficult to go from a very

:59:04.:59:06.

controlled environment like a classroom to something where it is

:59:07.:59:10.

perhaps not quite so clear what you're supposed to be doing. There

:59:11.:59:15.

is a clarity in terms of what we will be doing. If you been in the

:59:16.:59:21.

there is a level of control their! there is a level of control their!

:59:22.:59:27.

-- Tricia. That is a similarity between the chamber and classroom

:59:28.:59:32.

terms of how other members and sells conductors cells so there's an

:59:33.:59:35.

element of similarity between school and the chamber you could say. Alex

:59:36.:59:41.

Cole-Hamilton, you're a bit of a veteran, aren't you? I'm something

:59:42.:59:46.

of a one horse in terms of standing. You don't join the Liberal Democrats

:59:47.:59:51.

as a career move, they do because you believe in Civil Liberties, the

:59:52.:59:55.

environment and holding the SNP to account. This is my first time

:59:56.:59:59.

standing but I finally got there and I got the glory on the shoulders of

:00:00.:00:03.

the finest people I know, a massive campaign team that worked their guts

:00:04.:00:08.

out. What did you make of your first week? My head is utterly spinning. I

:00:09.:00:12.

have worked in a Scottish week? My head is utterly spinning. I

:00:13.:00:15.

since the beginning of devilish in but I realise how much I don't know.

:00:16.:00:21.

As Jenny said, the Parliament staff have been fantastic in getting us

:00:22.:00:25.

As Jenny said, the Parliament staff settled and easing us into the flow.

:00:26.:00:30.

I'm already getting stuck in. I'm interested in whether each of you

:00:31.:00:34.

has a particular policy area or proposal for a bill which is not

:00:35.:00:36.

mainstream in your own party that you would like to push. Jenny

:00:37.:00:40.

Gilruth, is there anything you would like to be able to come out at the

:00:41.:00:44.

end of this and say, this is what I achieved? At this moment in time I

:00:45.:00:48.

already deal to the people that voted for me and my commitment

:00:49.:00:51.

absolutely as to my constituency and to those who put their trust in me.

:00:52.:00:57.

At this bomb, not thinking personally what I could get out of

:00:58.:01:00.

this, this is about representing the people who put their faith in me.

:01:01.:01:04.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, Cupid for motions already, haven't you?

:01:05.:01:11.

Absolutely. My background is in children and young people's services

:01:12.:01:13.

Absolutely. My background is in and I've spent my adult life

:01:14.:01:16.

fighting for the rights of children so I'm going to bring a lot of that

:01:17.:01:26.

was meant to Holyrood and I'm setting targets for my tenure in

:01:27.:01:30.

Parliament. If you could put forward a bill for young people, what would

:01:31.:01:35.

be in it? We often say we want to be the best place in the world to go up

:01:36.:01:43.

yet we refuse as a country to use the European Convention's rights of

:01:44.:01:46.

a tiled so I would put forward a bill to incorporate that. -- writes

:01:47.:01:55.

of a child. Jenny Gilruth, you wouldn't be against that, would you?

:01:56.:01:59.

Certainly not. I have always encouraged my class to vote in

:02:00.:02:06.

elections for class representatives. We need to get more young people

:02:07.:02:10.

involved in the political process. That's something I feel passionately

:02:11.:02:16.

about. What about in terms of your party, Jenny Gilruth, is there

:02:17.:02:18.

anything in particular you would like to see the SNP having achieved

:02:19.:02:21.

at the end of this term that isn't there now? I'm proud of our

:02:22.:02:25.

achievements in education. there now? I'm proud of our

:02:26.:02:28.

Particularly we have invested a lot of money in the attainment fund and

:02:29.:02:31.

that is something I'd like to support going forward. I know we all

:02:32.:02:37.

feel passionately about that and I think the First Minister has showed

:02:38.:02:42.

to be a credible force on that front. Alex Cole-Hamilton,

:02:43.:02:50.

presumably you would agree with that because one of the Liberal

:02:51.:02:53.

Democrats' big issue was the people premium and we can, different things

:02:54.:02:57.

but what it amounts to is money for children who are in need.

:02:58.:03:02.

Absolutely. There was a report published that said we have actually

:03:03.:03:05.

slipped down the global rankings in terms of our quality of teaching and

:03:06.:03:11.

the achievements that students get in Scottish schools. We used to be

:03:12.:03:14.

world-beater and we are now average. We don't think that's good enough.

:03:15.:03:18.

The SNP have talked a good game but have come up wanting in terms of

:03:19.:03:22.

action. That is what the central pillar of the Democrat manifesto

:03:23.:03:28.

was. He didn't manage to keep the best pals up till the end. We'll see

:03:29.:03:37.

what it's like in future. Now, as with every election, plenty of

:03:38.:03:40.

energy was spent trying to predict the outcome of the vote and produced

:03:41.:03:42.

unexpected results. Now the experts have begun

:03:43.:03:48.

the process of trying to make Our reporter Andrew Black has been

:03:49.:03:50.

speaking to some of them. We've just seen a Scottish election

:03:51.:03:59.

to the building behind me which has produced some surprising results.

:04:00.:04:03.

The main headline is the SNP will be back for a third time in office but

:04:04.:04:07.

as human oddity Government instead of a majority Government. There has

:04:08.:04:12.

also been talk of a Scottish Tory revival in Scotland after Labour

:04:13.:04:16.

slumped to third place behind the Conservatives and the Greens managed

:04:17.:04:22.

to increase their number of seats. It's got expert asking, what just

:04:23.:04:26.

happened in Scotland? As the dust from election night settles, a group

:04:27.:04:31.

of academics, politicians and others gathered in Edinburgh to offer their

:04:32.:04:38.

thoughts on what happened. One of the key questions is why the SNP

:04:39.:04:43.

when it seemed so unstoppable fell back in terms of seats. The local

:04:44.:04:46.

system had something to do with it. We know that people didn't always

:04:47.:04:49.

backed the same parties across the two ballots and I think what we

:04:50.:04:54.

called split ticket voting is certainly responsible. The SNP was

:04:55.:05:00.

leaking supporters across the constituency and regional lists more

:05:01.:05:03.

than the other main parties and that probably didn't help in the end but

:05:04.:05:05.

than the other main parties and that also I think there was tactical

:05:06.:05:11.

voting. There has been much talk of the SNP's dominance being like a

:05:12.:05:14.

1-party state but if you look at things from a Welsh perspective, the

:05:15.:05:16.

situation in Scotland is anything A position of Welsh Labour Party

:05:17.:05:31.

makes a SNP look like Johnny come latelys. The Labour Party have

:05:32.:05:42.

dominated the Welsh elections for years at. The SNP's domination of

:05:43.:05:46.

Scottish politics is much more recent, much less a deeply grounded

:05:47.:05:51.

than Labour's domination of Welsh politics. Back in Scotland, are we

:05:52.:05:57.

seeing another shift in the political tectonic plates following

:05:58.:05:58.

the significant gains made by political tectonic plates following

:05:59.:06:03.

Conservatives? The Conservatives had a very good result. However, the

:06:04.:06:14.

party denied itself, it wasn't the Conservative Party, it was the

:06:15.:06:17.

receiver to party. Fair enough, but they have to build on that and

:06:18.:06:20.

translate Rick Davidson into the Conservative Party. They have to be

:06:21.:06:25.

an effective opposition and what does that mean? They have promised

:06:26.:06:30.

to be strong opposition, if it is negative and destructive it will not

:06:31.:06:35.

help. They have to become full. Then there is labour. Many people thought

:06:36.:06:40.

of the party as Scotland's dominant political force since time began at

:06:41.:06:44.

the election so their fortunes further decline. Why was that? The

:06:45.:06:51.

SNP are seen as a more effective vehicle for standing up to Scotland

:06:52.:06:55.

and more effective in government. These are issues the Labour Party

:06:56.:06:58.

will have to confront. The Labour Party has had a terrible election

:06:59.:07:02.

but they are far from dead. They have to get their act together and

:07:03.:07:06.

work out what kind of party at us and regain the initiative as

:07:07.:07:09.

Scotland's party of progressive politics. One thing is certain, the

:07:10.:07:19.

make-up of this new parliament will probably make the next few years

:07:20.:07:20.

pretty interesting. Let's discuss some of those issues,

:07:21.:07:21.

and what to expect from the days Joining me now are the

:07:22.:07:25.

Investigations Editor at the Sunday Herald,

:07:26.:07:34.

Paul Hutcheon, and Lindsay Mcintosh who is Scottish Political

:07:35.:07:37.

Editor at the Times. Did the minority government surprise

:07:38.:07:52.

you? Yes. And it surprised the pollsters. It is a different

:07:53.:07:58.

minority government this time around compared to 2007. They had to deal

:07:59.:08:07.

with the other parties then to get their agenda through. This time they

:08:08.:08:11.

have to strike deals but it is much easier. Presumably it depends who

:08:12.:08:22.

you do deals with. On tax, the Scottish Conservatives probably have

:08:23.:08:28.

the nearest to the SNP policy but if you're the SNP he might not

:08:29.:08:32.

particularly want to be seen to be getting your tax proposals through

:08:33.:08:37.

thanks to the Tories. There are 65 opposition MSPs and 63 government

:08:38.:08:44.

supporting MSPs. They have to get one party to support them on

:08:45.:08:51.

legislation. If you look at their manifesto and they stick rigidly to

:08:52.:08:56.

that, I think they will make alliances on a case-by-case basis.

:08:57.:08:59.

And things like income tax, council tax, the SNP is probably closest to

:09:00.:09:05.

the Conservative policies but if you look at issues like the named person

:09:06.:09:11.

scheme, the Tories tried mounting an attack on that, the Greens, Lib Dems

:09:12.:09:16.

and Labour will probably back the SNP. Also the welfare powers. I'd

:09:17.:09:23.

imagine the centre-left parties will support the SNP. I think it will be

:09:24.:09:28.

fun times. I don't have gates going to be a boring five years. Just on

:09:29.:09:38.

tax, the Greens, who you might think because of their views on

:09:39.:09:42.

independence are the newest of SNP, actually are probably the furthest

:09:43.:09:44.

away from them in terms of tax. Yes, actually are probably the furthest

:09:45.:09:48.

and I think the Tories are closest in taxation. On income tax, the only

:09:49.:09:54.

difference between Nicola Sturgeon and George Osborne's policy is

:09:55.:09:57.

fiddling with the middle rate. With the SNP be prepared to be seen to

:09:58.:10:03.

get into bed with the Tories on that? It depends how they spend it.

:10:04.:10:09.

Last week when Nicola Sturgeon talked about taxation she was

:10:10.:10:12.

committed to her income tax policy but seems to suggest she might shift

:10:13.:10:15.

on business rates. There is an ongoing review of them at the

:10:16.:10:19.

moment. Read it she was willing to strike a deal with the Tories and

:10:20.:10:23.

that's where she could go. There are are some issues and could be

:10:24.:10:28.

difficult for the SNP. Air passenger duty. Everyone but the SNP are

:10:29.:10:32.

against it. It maybe they have to come back with new that perhaps

:10:33.:10:38.

modify the proposals. I expect them to modify a number of policies. The

:10:39.:10:43.

legislation that criminalise defensive behaviour at football

:10:44.:10:47.

matches. That was railroaded through by the SNP government. It is clear

:10:48.:10:52.

that all the opposition parties are against large aspect of it. Not in

:10:53.:10:54.

its entirety. I imagine that might against large aspect of it. Not in

:10:55.:10:59.

be an early casualty of the first year. Other issues like the named

:11:00.:11:05.

person thing, I think that would survive, but they will have to box

:11:06.:11:09.

clever. They will not have at their own way like the last five years. It

:11:10.:11:14.

will be more similar like the first term when they governed by minority.

:11:15.:11:19.

It will be interesting. Independence, the Greens are in

:11:20.:11:24.

favour, pro-independence gets a small majority. How do you interpret

:11:25.:11:29.

what the SNP have been saying recently? They clearly don't want a

:11:30.:11:34.

referendum any time soon. I think there is only one test for another

:11:35.:11:39.

referendum and that is when the opinion polls consistently show

:11:40.:11:43.

people will vote yes. Why would they have a referendum before that? I

:11:44.:11:49.

think although there is a majority of independent supporting MSPs in

:11:50.:11:52.

parliament now, the manifestos which they stood on do not include a clear

:11:53.:11:56.

commitment to a referendum so I cannot see us having one any time

:11:57.:12:00.

soon. The green one was particularly roundabout. It suggested there would

:12:01.:12:06.

have to be a 1 million strong petition. Nicola Sturgeon is forming

:12:07.:12:09.

a new government this week. Do you expect big changes? I think she is

:12:10.:12:18.

gone to be splitting up the finance and economy brief. The thing that

:12:19.:12:21.

interests me is the education portfolio. Nicola Sturgeon says this

:12:22.:12:31.

is a key priority and how she wants to be judged. If I was her I would

:12:32.:12:36.

want my top minister in that portfolio. Looking round the Cabinet

:12:37.:12:43.

table, John Swinney is the most competent and able. He could perhaps

:12:44.:12:50.

combine finance? Maybe move him out of finance altogether. Maybe it is

:12:51.:12:58.

not going to be as onerous as it once was. Derek Mackay, Keith Brown

:12:59.:13:04.

could step into that job. John Swinney has been in the same job for

:13:05.:13:07.

nine years. Maybe it is time for a change. Arise John Swinney, would be

:13:08.:13:13.

your view? It would be the logical change. Arise John Swinney, would be

:13:14.:13:19.

choice but whether she goes down that road is another matter. I think

:13:20.:13:26.

I agree. Nicola Sturgeon said that brief is going to be split. Although

:13:27.:13:30.

John has been in it for nine years he is a respected member of the

:13:31.:13:33.

Cabinet and he has new powers over taxation and welfare. He is seen as

:13:34.:13:38.

a steady hand. Important for a government. Think of Gordon Brown as

:13:39.:13:46.

Chancellor. A big job for John Swinney whether he stays in finance

:13:47.:13:50.

or moves education. We might see some new blood at Cabinet or

:13:51.:13:53.

ministerial level as we saw from your earlier interviews, clearly

:13:54.:14:01.

there is new SNP talent. It be interesting to see if Nicola

:14:02.:14:04.

Sturgeon wants to try them out at a lower level. There was no other

:14:05.:14:09.

brief you can see changing other than education? Education is the one

:14:10.:14:12.

that's certainly going to go. On Tuesday we'll be bringing

:14:13.:14:14.

you special coverage of the election of the First Minister at quarter

:14:15.:14:18.

past two on BBC Two. I'll be back on Wednesday afternoon

:14:19.:14:21.

with Politics Scotland Soak up the atmosphere at the most

:14:22.:14:23.

famous flower show in the world. from the RHS Chelsea Flower Show

:14:24.:14:37.

2016.

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