15/05/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


15/05/2016

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Guests include Iain Duncan Smith MP to discuss the EU referendum.


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comparing the mission of the European Union with

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what Hitler was trying to achieve - has the Leave campaign's self-styled

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Churchillian attack dog gone too far?

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He says leaving the European Union

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will improve the lives of the "have nots" -

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but is the man who presided over billions of pounds of welfare

:01:01.:01:03.

cuts really on the side of working people?

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Reducing the powers of the House of Lords

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would not be acceptable, says the woman charged with keeping order

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in the upper house - but with 60 government defeats

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in the last year alone have their Lord and Ladyships

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And coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland:

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As the dust settles on the Scottish election, we'll be speaking live

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to the Greens' Patrick Harvie about his party's plans and policies

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And with me - as always - three journalists who'd have been

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sure to win the Eurovision political punditry contest: Helen Lewis,

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Isabel Oakeshott and Amol Rajan who'll be tweeting throughout

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So earlier in the week the Prime Minister warned that

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leaving the EU could precipitate armed conflict in Europe.

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Today, Boris Johnson hits back, comparing the European Union

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to Hitler in an interview with the Sunday Telegraph:

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"Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried this out,

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The EU is an attempt to do this by different methods."

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Boris goes on to say "The euro has become a means by which superior

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German productivity is able to gain an absolutely unbeatable advantage

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Could you organise an ordinance that British politicians should just shut

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up about Hitler? It is an interesting one, the campaign are

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getting quite grumpy, saying that he was not really talking about Hitler.

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Boris is to clever not to know that if you mention Napoleon and Hitler

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people will write headlines. He is a columnist and he knows this. It is

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bizarre. It was Sadiq Khan sitting at home thinking he was the only

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London mayor was not mentioned Hitler? The campaign has become

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quite personal, it is about David Cameron's relationship with them,

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and whether he has a hope of becoming leader. And as always like

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to make things personal. It does not surprisingly in the slightest that

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it is becoming more personal as the clock ticks towards the key date. On

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Boris Johnson's comments, absolutely agree with Helen but no good can

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come of a politician mentioning Hitler, but the reaction to the

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remarks has been rather hysterical. If anyone bothers reading the

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context... In the context. The Mac was an absolutely reasonable

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statement of historical fact. We should not get to a point where

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nobody can mention anything historical without it creating a

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ridiculous action. I don't think it will be arise if it helps them win

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votes. He fancies herself as an inherent to Winston Churchill, it

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was in store. In your dreams, if the copy had come in and you had seen

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the word logo might think you have a chance for a headline. Ever since

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the collapse of the Roman Empire there have been attempts to unify

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Europe. In a way, the Germans have that... There was a slight

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difference in having endless pragmatic committees and ruling

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tanks and to Poland. By different means is quite different. He was

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arguing it was an attempt to unify Europe, it is bundled together

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different ideas. It is a bit of a stretch. But overstretch! I think

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there was a real danger... And what is the European Union, parable?

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People support Brexit would say it was an attempt to build a European

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super structure without a Democratic base. Democratic nations. It is

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completely reasonable. Ireland begins to cover girl to make

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important arguments about historical trends. Butler was Fromer remark.

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He only mentioned Napoleon. Maybe he should have mentioned other leaders.

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What do you make of the polls, showing neck and neck but they are

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so far ahead in the economic argument, and that is why we will

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win. They always hoped that. The evidence is that people put the

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economy as the highest concern. What the Leave campaign is trying to do,

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we've seen this from Nigel Farage, make the point that this is not just

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about GDP, a few extra pounds in your pocket. The Leave campaign will

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be hoping to highlight the question of what this means for society.

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Now - would leaving the European Union be good

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for the poor and disadvantaged in Britain?

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That's the case that's being made by the former Work

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and Pension Secretary Iain Duncan Smith.

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I will be talking to him in a moment.

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But first let's hear the warnings earlier this week about

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the short-term impact of Brexit on the economy

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from the Governor Bank of England, Mark Carney.

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A vote to leave the European Union could have material economic effects

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on the exchange rate, on demand, and on the economy's

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So, this combination of influences on demand,

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supply and the exchange rate could lead to a materially lower

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path for growth and a notably higher path for inflation

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than in the central projections set out in today's

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Welcome back to the Sunday Politics. You've claimed that leaving the EU

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would be good for the have nots but the Governor of the Bank of England

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says it could lead to recession, inflation, unemployment. That could

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be bad. If all the predictions were right. Every single one of these

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predictions is done by groups of people who've got most of their

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predictions wrong. The point I would make to you, the Treasury prediction

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and the IMS prediction all show that if Britain left the EU the economy

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would grow. Their argument is it would not grow as fast but how you

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can predict a 0.6% variation is beyond me. He was the point I really

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believe about the bank, which is where I find this very back. I think

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the bank, the governor has strayed into an expression of a simple,

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personal prediction. I don't think it is actually possible for you to

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say with any absolute accuracy that that will happen. In a sense, when

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you listen to what he said, he started to nuance about the idea, he

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was not seeing it actually would be comic he said he thought it could be

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about that. Here is my point about the independence of the Bank of

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England. Section ten of the 1998 act makes it very clear that if he is to

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talk about monetary policies, for which he has independence, he has to

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be open, impartial and all things must be available. Last year, in

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2015, when he spoke about the threat to the British economy, he made the

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point which Mervyn King has made that the euro instability and the

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crash has been very damaging to the British economy and will be even

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more damaging as it goes on. Notice that when he came out on Thursday he

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said nothing about the overall problems if we remained in. If

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you're going to be impartial then you had damned well better say

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something about the alternative case and the threats of remaining are

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very clear. Mervyn King said there is a crisis going on and he does not

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see an end to it. Why don't we hear from him about that? Has he breached

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his obligations as Governor of the Bank of England? I believe that he

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has. Should he resign? I think he ought to be asked why he has not

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brought out both sides of the issue. He used to work for Goldman Sachs.

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They are running through this, funding the campaign, he has been

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very clear on it. You bring out Goldman Sachs, lack of impartiality,

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you think he is not keeping his remit, should he resign? I think he

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needs to answer about this one simple charge. I would like to see

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the e-mail exchange over this issue, the telephone conversation minutes,

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to see whether the Treasury has had any involvement in this process

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whatsoever, what worries me slightly about what is going on, the Bank of

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Scotland comes out on Thursday and then suddenly the head of the IMF

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comes out on Friday with a similar prediction. These are the same

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people that were telling us all that the UK is too small to leave and too

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insignificant. Now we are so insignificant that we are plunging

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the world into an economic crash. Are we saying this was an accident?

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The governor did not call? Let me ask you this, we know what made...

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Are you saying they are colluding? I wonder. Do you have any evidence?

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Suddenly on Wednesday and Thursday, you have reports coming out, do you

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think they spoke to each other about what they are doing? I wonder about

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that. The Chancellor is supporting the governor, he then stands behind

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Christine Lagarde. We know that they are players in this. The IMF always

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works with them. We know which major economic authorities you don't like.

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The Treasury, the IMF, the Bank of England, the OECD, which major

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economic authorities do you rate? There have been some good reports

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out, there are a number of good economists, lots of others from the

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city who have produced a report which got very little coverage about

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the prospect... Any major economic apologies? Yes but when they have

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come out with these reports they have said the UK would continue to

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grow. Not as quickly. Not as quickly. My point is if you're going

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to be balanced you need to constantly reference that point and

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if they want to say that there is a possibility this could lead to a

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problem he must also point out that if we remain there is a possibility

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that we will be damaged by this. You made that .3 times. Let me ask you,

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can you name a major economic authority on your side of the

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argument? I would not expect one to be on our side. So you have none? It

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would be completely unusual for all these institutions not to want to

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act the status quo. All these institutions said there was no

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problem in 2007 and then one year later we hit the buffers and the

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economy went down. None of them predicted it. Including the

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Conservatives. None of them have apologised for their failure.

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I want to show you this chart. This shows our balance of payments, our

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deficit. It is the difference between our exports and imports. We

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import a lot more than we export in goods and services. It has

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continually got worse under your government. This deficit, which is

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multi-billion, is financed by foreigners who buy our sterling as I

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to make up the gap. If Brexit create a falling pound, why would the

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foreigners continue to pay for our deficit? If the economy didn't

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perform, why would be, but if you look at all those who predicted

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where we would be now, they all said the threat of Brexit would actually

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bring the pound crashing. The pound is now rising back up, close to

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where it was when we started this campaign. 10% on last November. We

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had this deficit, it is financed by foreigners. If they lose confidence

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in this country, confidence in Stirling, how do we pay for this? We

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have to make sure we run the economy in a way that they have confidence

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in it, we have to get some of those regulations down, we have to make

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British industry more competitive. We have to have a better plan to get

:16:10.:16:14.

industry working again. That would be in the long term, this could be a

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short-term problem that could hit in the summer. If it results leaving in

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an uncontrolled, plummeting sterling, and the foreigners because

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of the uncertainty and sterling going down are saying we are not

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going to continue to finance it, the bank would have to raise interest

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rates, wouldn't it? If that was the circumstance, yes, but it is what

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you plan to do. Why are they investing in what we are doing at

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the moment? They buy the bonds because they believe the Government

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has a long-term plan to get the deficit down and reduce borrowing.

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Therefore they believe the UK is a good investment and running a trade

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surplus with the rest of the world. We are running a huge deficit. Yes,

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but we are running a trade surplus. If they need to finance this

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deficit, and it is not the budget deficit, it is how the foreigners by

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our assets in order to help us run this deficit. If interest rate did

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rise, it follows that mortgage rates could rise substantially. Yes but

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the alternative could be the same, in other words if they believe what

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we are doing is right for the economy they are prepared to back

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it, which means you wouldn't have rising interest rates. All of this

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is speculation because we don't know. Boris Johnson has admitted

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that after Brexit there would be a Nike tick, that he believes the

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economy would take a hit, but it would recover strongly. Do you

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believe that? Possibly but this is speculation about something nobody

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knows. There has been speculation about forecast in these economies,

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most of them are wrong because people are unable to tell us about

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what they think about our prospects afterwards. If we vote to leave, we

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are already able to show we can get our money back in due course and we

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are able to start planning our own economy so we are able to get the

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kind of deals we need. That shows you have a plan that works. You

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could offer short-term crisis in the interim, couldn't you? They are

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worried whether their mortgage will have risen by August or September of

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this year. If that were to happen but the word is if. This is pure

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speculation. The point I am making is that the reality is it may go in

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the opposite direction. Nobody can say that. The EU guarantees a number

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of social protections for workers, covering things like equal pay,

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working time, maternity pay. Can you pledged to fight to maintain all of

:19:10.:19:14.

these protections if we leave? All of these were accepted by the

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Conservative government and I believe strongly then need to be

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protections for workers. All of these things in a democracy are

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debated but the British government have actually themselves instituted

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protections for workers. So would you fight to keep the protections

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they currently have under EU guarantees? As it stands, yes. Why

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should people trust you because you opposed the Web Time directive in

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1996, and voted against the minimum wage in 1997. Why would they have

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not looked to you for this social protection? Because rather than

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forecast ahead, look back at what has happened to them. The

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immigration has damaged them. I'm simply saying what has happened,

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therefore my argument has been, and you have known that over a long

:20:09.:20:13.

time, over nine years I have argued this process has been most damaging

:20:14.:20:16.

to the people at the low skilled end. That is the migration issue, it

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may well be true. I'm asking you why should people trust you on these EU

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social protections that they would remain if we came out since you

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voted against them when they were being proposed? The working Time

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directive gave little or no flexibility at the time. It has been

:20:40.:20:44.

in place and we had to work with it. You protect the workforce but you

:20:45.:20:48.

make sure the competition that they face in terms of their jobs is

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actually fair competition, not unfair competition. What has

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happened, as you saw on Thursday with the national insurance numbers,

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is a very high proportion of people coming in in under 52 weeks here who

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have no commitment to the UK often staying in bed sits, compete on the

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low salary end of life. Is the working Time directive, which

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guarantees the hours people work in a week and proper breaks, is that

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guarantees the hours people work in safe after Brexit or not? UK law

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would enshrine what we think is best for protection of workforce and that

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is right. A democratic government will decide on what it thinks is

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right. That is possible for Labour or Conservative. I believe it is

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right to have it, the question is how flexible... People watching this

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will not be reassured by this. I will stick to the agreements we

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have. You point your fist in the Commons when the Chancellor

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announced the new national living wage, now you say it is a magnet for

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migrants, what changed? I said it is a good people for people wanting to

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come and work here because they will get a higher wage. I am wholly in

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favour of a rise to the minimum wage because I believe that over time

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what happens to businesses is they have got around paying lower

:22:19.:22:24.

wages... Would you still be in favour of it if we stayed in the EU?

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Yes, because it is the best way you can drive the wages up but if we

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stay in the EU it will become a magnet for people to come in here

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and it will lead to huge problems. The point I made on Tuesday this

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week was that have we have seen already lots of people from the EU

:22:44.:22:50.

tend to come in. The vast majority of people coming from the European

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Union into the UK, they tend to be low skills, they tend to be ones

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taking a high proportion of those low skilled jobs. They have taken

:23:00.:23:03.

them at lesser salary and driven it down. The overall average wage will

:23:04.:23:08.

still be low for those on low skills. You have brought up

:23:09.:23:14.

migration several times in this interview, isn't the blunt truth,

:23:15.:23:18.

because I was asking about the economics, you are losing the

:23:19.:23:22.

economic arguments, the polls show that, you are more dependent on

:23:23.:23:27.

scaring people. John Major says: What do you say? Rubbish. Very

:23:28.:23:46.

simple, he is talking nonsense. He said only a few years ago that there

:23:47.:23:51.

was a real issue over immigration. The Government had a target to get

:23:52.:23:57.

tens of thousands, the limit down to tens of thousands, we are not

:23:58.:24:01.

achieving that. We talked about it in the run-up to the election. The

:24:02.:24:05.

Prime Minister himself made a strong commitment that we would ensure our

:24:06.:24:09.

borders were protected against people coming to be here so it is

:24:10.:24:12.

nonsense because we are not raising this is an issue because we are

:24:13.:24:17.

trying to win the referendum. Most people in the country believes there

:24:18.:24:21.

is an issue about the open border with the European Union. Why is it

:24:22.:24:32.

demagoguery, why is it extremism to speak for British people who feel

:24:33.:24:35.

like their views are being tossed aside? If you don't do it, the

:24:36.:24:38.

extreme parties get onto it. Was it wise Boris Johnson to compare the

:24:39.:24:45.

EU's ambitions? I thought it was a good article because he spoke about

:24:46.:24:51.

this nonsensical... Was it wise to compare it with Hitler? Do you think

:24:52.:24:58.

Hitler's efforts to unify Europe are the same as the European Union's

:24:59.:25:03.

efforts? I think the whole process of trying to drive Europe together

:25:04.:25:08.

by force or democracy ultimately makes problems. Isn't this

:25:09.:25:14.

referendum getting vaguely absurd? We have the Prime Minister dangling

:25:15.:25:18.

the thought of world War three if we leave, and on your side we have

:25:19.:25:23.

Boris Johnson saying Hitler and the European Union are on the same

:25:24.:25:27.

script. It is both nonsense and you know that. All he is doing in the

:25:28.:25:32.

interview is talking about the trend towards the idea, and he's using

:25:33.:25:42.

historical parallels to explain it. You go through this great idea that

:25:43.:25:46.

somehow there is a thing called greater Europe. Whether or not you

:25:47.:25:50.

like the linguistics of this, my point remains the same. If you vote

:25:51.:25:57.

to remain on the 23rd, you are voting, the 12 residents said it

:25:58.:26:02.

clear that they intend to deepen... The five presidents. The five

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presidents rather. David Cameron and George Osborne won't debate other

:26:13.:26:17.

Tory ministers during the referendum, are they concerned about

:26:18.:26:21.

party unity or just running scared? You will have to ask them. My view

:26:22.:26:27.

about it is that it is right to have a proper debate and by not opening

:26:28.:26:30.

that debate the British public will be left to wonder why they were not

:26:31.:26:34.

allowed to see the two opposing sides of the argument from the

:26:35.:26:38.

leading figures. You would debate the Prime Minister? Yes, we need to

:26:39.:26:44.

get these things straight face-to-face. After all, if this

:26:45.:26:48.

were an election would be Remain side be allowed to say we won't

:26:49.:26:53.

debate Ed Miliband fustian might know, they cannot do that. There are

:26:54.:26:59.

two side to this argument, if two sides have to debate it that is

:27:00.:27:05.

right and proper. It should be down to impartiality that we have two

:27:06.:27:11.

sides, the two sets of leaders. Iain Duncan Smith, thank you.

:27:12.:27:15.

Now, the Commons are elected, the House of Lords are not

:27:16.:27:18.

and is supposed to be a "revising chamber".

:27:19.:27:20.

But have their lord and ladyships been overstepping the mark?

:27:21.:27:22.

Over the the past year, they've inflicted 60 defeats

:27:23.:27:24.

on a Government that's now poised to clip the Lord's wings -

:27:25.:27:27.

reducing their power to block changes in the law.

:27:28.:27:29.

But in an exclusive interview before she steps down as the speaker

:27:30.:27:32.

of the House of Lords in the summer, Baroness D'Souza has told us

:27:33.:27:35.

that the powers of the Lords should not be curtailed.

:27:36.:27:38.

It's very obvious why they are called the crossbenchers,

:27:39.:27:46.

My guide knows this place pretty well, how it works, who's who.

:27:47.:27:53.

Since 2011, she's been Lord Speaker, a role which involves

:27:54.:27:55.

overseeing proceedings here, representing the Lords at home

:27:56.:27:57.

and abroad, and sitting on a sack of wool.

:27:58.:28:03.

But the business in here over which Baroness D'Souza presides has

:28:04.:28:10.

come under increasing criticism from the Government.

:28:11.:28:14.

247 members of the House of Lords sit as Conservatives peers,

:28:15.:28:17.

making the governing party a significant minority of the 807

:28:18.:28:19.

members eligible to take part in the Upper House.

:28:20.:28:26.

The Government has faced 60 defeats in the House of Lords in the most

:28:27.:28:30.

The rate of defeats this time round is more than twice that

:28:31.:28:34.

Then, the Government was defeated in less than a quarter

:28:35.:28:40.

of votes compared to more than half in the present one.

:28:41.:28:44.

Now there's a sense that the Lords are too rebellious, they have been

:28:45.:28:48.

too rebellious over the last few years and essentially the Lords

:28:49.:28:50.

You know, all governments and all parliamentarians,

:28:51.:28:54.

or at least House of Commons, always feel that the House of Lords

:28:55.:29:01.

is a place that thwarts them in one way or another.

:29:02.:29:04.

And they're right, they do, but that is in the nature

:29:05.:29:09.

They have all the power and rightly so.

:29:10.:29:17.

I still think it's right that the Lords should be free

:29:18.:29:20.

to scrutinise and to question and to hold the Government

:29:21.:29:23.

to account, and to send back legislation which it feels is not

:29:24.:29:27.

adequate, either in terms of its clarity or because perhaps it

:29:28.:29:32.

infringes from time to time individual liberties

:29:33.:29:34.

And that's exactly what happened last October.

:29:35.:29:41.

The House of Lords effectively blocked the Government's proposed

:29:42.:29:43.

changes to tax credits, a massive blow to George

:29:44.:29:46.

Unelected Labour and Liberal Lords have voted down a matter passed

:29:47.:29:53.

by the elected House of Commons, that raises constitutional issues

:29:54.:29:56.

and David Cameron and I are clear they will need to be dealt with.

:29:57.:30:00.

The way they dealt with it was to ask Lord Strathclyde

:30:01.:30:03.

He concluded peers should lose their absolute veto over

:30:04.:30:07.

detailed laws known as secondary legislation, and instead be allowed

:30:08.:30:11.

only to send it back to the Commons to think again.

:30:12.:30:14.

There's going to be a lively debate about this in the House of Lords

:30:15.:30:18.

and I think that there will be a lot of views expressed and obviously

:30:19.:30:22.

you would expect the Lords to want to retain their power

:30:23.:30:24.

to scrutinise their power, their privilege.

:30:25.:30:28.

If you start curtailing or eroding or limiting the power

:30:29.:30:33.

of the Lords to do its job, there is a question

:30:34.:30:37.

There is another question, too, over the sheer number

:30:38.:30:46.

Baroness D'Souza told me she would be pushing for a Lords

:30:47.:30:50.

motion in the new session, she says the House of Lords should

:30:51.:30:53.

not be larger than the Commons, suggesting the number of peers

:30:54.:30:56.

At least 20% of them should be independents or crossbenchers,

:30:57.:31:00.

and no one party should have a political majority.

:31:01.:31:03.

She said all of that can be achieved by 2020.

:31:04.:31:06.

So, the size is making it inefficient?

:31:07.:31:08.

It does have an impact unfortunately on the role of the House of Lords

:31:09.:31:19.

in holding the Government to account.

:31:20.:31:22.

It's very difficult if you're limited to sort of say,

:31:23.:31:24.

in timed debates, a minute or two minutes to speak, to develop

:31:25.:31:27.

a sustained argument which will convince your fellow

:31:28.:31:29.

peers but also the Government of what it is you are

:31:30.:31:32.

The traditional pomp and ceremony of the Lords is well known

:31:33.:31:36.

but its relationship with the Commons and exactly

:31:37.:31:38.

what role it can play in the future is far more uncertain.

:31:39.:31:45.

And the man who was charged by the Government to review

:31:46.:31:47.

the Lord's powers, Tam Strathclyde, joins us now from Oxfordshire.

:31:48.:31:52.

Welcome to the programme. Nice to see the sun is shining rate you are.

:31:53.:32:01.

We've just heard, what would be the point of the Lloyds if the powers

:32:02.:32:07.

are watered down as your review proposes. What do you say to her?

:32:08.:32:14.

There is no suggestion and no recommendation by anybody in

:32:15.:32:16.

government to fundamentally change the powers of the House of Lords. I

:32:17.:32:24.

made the most mild and humble recommendation about process, where

:32:25.:32:31.

frankly most of us had understood that the customs and conventions

:32:32.:32:37.

that had been built up would stick. Last October, they broke down, as a

:32:38.:32:42.

result there is no consensus and agreement on what those powers could

:32:43.:32:51.

be. I propose a new power to be able to reject and ask. What is

:32:52.:33:00.

interesting is every school child knows that the purpose of the House

:33:01.:33:09.

of Lords is to scrutinise but not to block. What happened was the House

:33:10.:33:15.

of Lords using a veto and given it is unelected, I don't think that

:33:16.:33:21.

power should ever be used. Is the government going to implement your

:33:22.:33:25.

recommendations? Since I reported before Christmas there have been

:33:26.:33:32.

four further reports, three in the House of Lords and one in the House

:33:33.:33:38.

of Commons, commenting on this. I think what the government will want

:33:39.:33:41.

to do is look carefully at these reports before responding. I don't

:33:42.:33:46.

think there needs to be a rush to legislation, and there may well be

:33:47.:33:47.

an attempt to get an agreement between the parties in the House of

:33:48.:33:54.

Lords, between the two Houses of Parliament. But if that consensus

:33:55.:34:00.

cannot be reached, I think the government will have no option but

:34:01.:34:07.

to legislate on this matter. Your government has had 60 defeats at the

:34:08.:34:11.

hands of the Lords. You wonder whether the conservative tune has

:34:12.:34:15.

changed because it was Tory peers inflicting defeat on Labour

:34:16.:34:19.

governments. Now you are getting a taste of your own historic medicine,

:34:20.:34:25.

you just don't like it. I was Leader of the Opposition for most of those

:34:26.:34:36.

years, particularly after the end of the last century. We did defeat the

:34:37.:34:48.

government regularly on primary legislation, not secondary

:34:49.:34:50.

legislation. What was interesting in your package is the government has

:34:51.:34:55.

been defeated in the House of Lords many more times than it did in the

:34:56.:35:00.

first Parliament of Tony Blair's government. Over half of all the

:35:01.:35:06.

votes in the House of Lords are defeated. This is not revision and

:35:07.:35:10.

scrutiny, this is not complementing the work of the House of Commons,

:35:11.:35:15.

this is an aggressive political statement why the other political

:35:16.:35:21.

parties. Is it really? This is a government which increasingly brings

:35:22.:35:23.

forward ill thought out ideas which it has not planned in advance, not

:35:24.:35:31.

without consultation, and is forced into U-turns. There has been a

:35:32.:35:35.

series of them. That is why you need a second chamber, to do proper

:35:36.:35:42.

scrutiny. I am the greatest defender of the second chamber and indeed, a

:35:43.:35:47.

Conservative Party that fully understands the central tenets of

:35:48.:35:54.

the Constitution, the balance between the houses, but what we've

:35:55.:35:58.

seen in the last 12 months, and remember, this is the first 12

:35:59.:36:02.

months of a new conservative administration, people who were

:36:03.:36:06.

elected to government, scarcely one year ago, and what we've seen in the

:36:07.:36:13.

House of Lords are blocking tactics, using vetoes rather than working

:36:14.:36:16.

with the House of Commons in order to improve that legislation which

:36:17.:36:24.

you rightly criticise. Are you a supporter of the way that

:36:25.:36:28.

governments have bloated the House of Lords? There are over 800 active

:36:29.:36:34.

peers. The US Senate needs 100 and it has real power. You've not got

:36:35.:36:38.

much power and those over 800 of you. Is that sensible? When Mr Blair

:36:39.:36:46.

and his friends throughout the hereditary peers in the 1990s I did

:36:47.:36:51.

argue that there was an inevitable consequence that prime ministers

:36:52.:36:55.

would try to increase their own numbers in the house. What's

:36:56.:36:58.

interesting about Mr Cameron is he has created far more Labour peers.

:36:59.:37:11.

Wide of the need to be 800 of you? You don't. -- why does there need to

:37:12.:37:19.

be 800. But those who want to reduce it to 500 should say how they plan

:37:20.:37:23.

to do that. I would prefer either people to be involved in the

:37:24.:37:26.

decision and they should be directly elected. Thank you for joining us.

:37:27.:37:30.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:31.:37:32.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:33.:37:41.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:37:42.:37:43.

We'll be speaking live to the Greens' Patrick Harvie

:37:44.:37:47.

about how his MSPs will approach their role in the new parliament,

:37:48.:37:50.

With the Holyrood election over, the next choice before voters -

:37:51.:37:56.

We'll debate the case for and against Brexit,

:37:57.:38:07.

And we'll meet a couple of the new faces who've joined

:38:08.:38:11.

The dust is settling on the result of just over a week ago.

:38:12.:38:16.

The Greens trebled their number of MSPs from two in the last

:38:17.:38:19.

Not quite matching the peak of seven they held from 2003,

:38:20.:38:23.

And they've displaced the Liberal Democrats

:38:24.:38:27.

I'm joined now by the co-convenor of the Scottish Greens, Patrick Harvie.

:38:28.:38:34.

Tell us what is going on. You had a meeting with Nicola Sturgeon this

:38:35.:38:44.

week. I had a brief meeting, nothing terribly formal, the kind of thing

:38:45.:38:48.

that happened for months even during the period of majority government.

:38:49.:38:52.

Political parties talk about things all the time. Presumably were

:38:53.:38:57.

talking about cooperation in the new parliament. I think the dynamic will

:38:58.:39:02.

change. It will not be quite the same as the previous minority

:39:03.:39:06.

government when the SNP were in deep minority and unless they could get a

:39:07.:39:11.

deal with Labour on any issue they had to reach out to build consensus

:39:12.:39:17.

with any two out of the three other parties. It is a slightly more

:39:18.:39:22.

straightforward situation now where the SNP only have to persuade one

:39:23.:39:30.

party to vote or abstain. If political parties go around

:39:31.:39:32.

posturing saying they will block this or that they will not get far.

:39:33.:39:40.

Opposition parties will be influential by being constructive.

:39:41.:39:47.

Are you considering even a semiformal arrangement with the SNP

:39:48.:39:50.

or will you judge everything issue by issue? Semiformal arrangements

:39:51.:40:01.

aren't even been discussed. I think the Friday after the election the

:40:02.:40:08.

first minister said clearly they would not seek an arrangement with

:40:09.:40:15.

another party. I think the SNP's position is clear, to be a menorah

:40:16.:40:18.

take government with great flexibility. I suspect if you were

:40:19.:40:23.

in their shoes you wouldn't be seeking to tie yourself to a

:40:24.:40:26.

relationship with just one party. That's why think it is going to be

:40:27.:40:30.

about positivity and constructivist opposition parties will conduct

:40:31.:40:40.

themselves. Is it theoretically possible you could put the

:40:41.:40:44.

Government down whether other opposition parties? Can you see

:40:45.:40:48.

yourself taking part in something like a vote of no-confidence? I

:40:49.:40:53.

think there would have to be an astonishing breach of trust to

:40:54.:40:58.

justify a vote of no-confidence. I think it is a little early to be

:40:59.:41:01.

talking about events that cataclysmic. Over the next few weeks

:41:02.:41:09.

and months I think we will see times where opposition parties may have

:41:10.:41:13.

common ground, such as Parliamentary reform. One issue that came up this

:41:14.:41:19.

week, cutting off air passenger duty. As far as I understand the SNP

:41:20.:41:27.

want to do what the SNP want to do. Presently, as proposed by the

:41:28.:41:31.

Scottish Government, is that policy toast? They do not have a majority

:41:32.:41:41.

for their position, scrapping the duty. That is why I come back to the

:41:42.:41:53.

idea of it being constructive. It is not an effective environmental tax

:41:54.:41:56.

in the first place, air passenger duty. One option is that we can find

:41:57.:42:03.

an alternative policy which can command a parliamentary majority,

:42:04.:42:09.

which passes the test of emissions and social justice. How could you

:42:10.:42:15.

cut duty in a way that actually reduces emissions? Perhaps it is

:42:16.:42:21.

about one of the ideas the new economics foundation talked about, a

:42:22.:42:26.

frequent levy. Most of the burden would fall on those who take the

:42:27.:42:29.

largest number of unnecessary short-haul flights. The males of the

:42:30.:42:37.

most important for the economy. If people have an alternative, the

:42:38.:42:40.

railways, which is economically beneficial because it allows these

:42:41.:42:46.

highly paid important people to actually do some work travelling,

:42:47.:42:49.

which you can't really do on an aeroplane trip to London. If people

:42:50.:42:56.

see railways is the affordable alternative more people will choose

:42:57.:43:01.

that. There are ways of using taxation, to achieve a behavioural

:43:02.:43:09.

change, in this case to reduce emissions, and a social justice

:43:10.:43:15.

change. If the SNP can talk about alternatives, they have the

:43:16.:43:18.

opportunity to replace air passenger duty with something better. If they

:43:19.:43:22.

want to dig their heels in and say our way or nothing then nothing is

:43:23.:43:28.

likely to happen. Independence. You are the balance of power on the

:43:29.:43:31.

issue of the second referendum because you're the only party that

:43:32.:43:36.

might be in favour of it. Do you understand the SNP palsy on the

:43:37.:43:42.

second referendum? As far as I know, the First Minister's statement seems

:43:43.:43:46.

broadly sensible that those of us who supported independence didn't

:43:47.:43:49.

manage to convince people last time and we have work to do to convince

:43:50.:43:55.

people. If Britain votes to leave the EU and Scotland to stay, would

:43:56.:43:59.

you be in favour of a second referendum? The SNP appear to see it

:44:00.:44:07.

as a material change but also they wouldn't want money unless the polls

:44:08.:44:11.

were going their way. I don't think that is the most likely future

:44:12.:44:16.

scenario in which we would choose. I know you don't want me to get into

:44:17.:44:23.

which way the EU referendum will go but the less talked about scenario

:44:24.:44:32.

is that the UK stays in the EU as a result of Scottish votes, that might

:44:33.:44:39.

be more of an argument and about Scottish independence because the

:44:40.:44:41.

right wing of the Tory party would have far less interest in keeping

:44:42.:44:46.

the UK together. I support independence and so does the

:44:47.:44:49.

Scottish Green Party and if and when a referendum comes along it is the

:44:50.:44:54.

only fair way to settle the question. Would you back a second

:44:55.:45:01.

referendum. It is something we like to see in the future. You have a

:45:02.:45:04.

referendum. It is something we like tiny minority in Parliament, it we

:45:05.:45:10.

had a referendum a year and a half ago and the argument is that

:45:11.:45:14.

something very substantial and have to change and a minority party

:45:15.:45:17.

shouldn't really hold the balance on a huge issue like this. Every MSP

:45:18.:45:25.

gets the same number of votes in parliament. The point is that the

:45:26.:45:35.

situation you are describing as the large extent the reason why both the

:45:36.:45:39.

SNP and I think many of the rest of us in this rather pro-independence

:45:40.:45:41.

movement are recognising there is more work to do in convincing people

:45:42.:45:46.

to stop for example, acknowledging some of the weakness in the SNP's

:45:47.:45:55.

2014 case in currency. Even Alex Salmond acknowledged that further

:45:56.:45:58.

work is needed to ensure there is a viable and compelling proposition.

:45:59.:46:05.

What about offensive behaviour on football matches legislation? Did

:46:06.:46:11.

you get together with opposition parties and end or get rid of it? We

:46:12.:46:17.

voted against it. I think it is a bad piece of legislation. I think

:46:18.:46:21.

there is an opportunity to repeal the worst of it. I suspect a justice

:46:22.:46:29.

committee process may be better than scrapping it all together. But he

:46:30.:46:34.

would like to scrap it? There are two parts. The offensive behaviour

:46:35.:46:39.

could staff has been the most contentious and I would like to see

:46:40.:46:43.

an alternative approach to sectarianism which would be more

:46:44.:46:49.

effective. There is also the threatening communications stuff and

:46:50.:46:51.

although I have problems with it I think it should be amended rather

:46:52.:46:55.

than repealed. A justice committee process would put it in the hands of

:46:56.:47:00.

a cross-party body of people with government voices but also the

:47:01.:47:02.

majority from political parties who were against that legislation, one

:47:03.:47:07.

that would allow the thing not just to become one MSP's personal project

:47:08.:47:12.

but a more reflective situation. I think we would get a better outcome

:47:13.:47:17.

with a committee process. It has been awhile since committees have

:47:18.:47:20.

initiated legislation and they should do more. 2002 I believe. Well

:47:21.:47:24.

remembered. It's not long till Scotland will be

:47:25.:47:26.

back at the ballot box. A short time ago I spoke

:47:27.:47:29.

to the SNP's Justice and Home Affairs Spokesperson

:47:30.:47:33.

at Westminster, Joanna Cherry, and to former Conservative Scottish

:47:34.:47:35.

Secretary Lord Forsyth, currently campaigning

:47:36.:47:37.

for Vote Leave. I started by asking Lord Forsyth

:47:38.:47:40.

for his reaction to Boris Johnson's comments, comparing

:47:41.:47:43.

the EU's aims to Hitler's. I think what he was trying to say

:47:44.:47:54.

was that there isn't a European demos and if you try to force people

:47:55.:48:00.

into one country with different economies and cultures and there

:48:01.:48:03.

will be trouble and traditionally wear that has happened that has

:48:04.:48:07.

proved to be disastrous. Could he perhaps have expressed himself in a

:48:08.:48:12.

slightly different manner? His colourful way of expressing himself

:48:13.:48:15.

as one of the reasons that in tears into people. Sometimes it offends

:48:16.:48:22.

people, sometimes it makes people cheerful, but the basic point he is

:48:23.:48:26.

making, the attempt to make a country called Europe, which has had

:48:27.:48:29.

disastrous consequences for the Greeks, Spanish, Portuguese and

:48:30.:48:33.

others, 50% unemployment across Europe, and I think the five

:48:34.:48:39.

residents report, worth googling, which sets out the agenda of what is

:48:40.:48:50.

necessary to preserve the euro, resulting in catastrophic effects of

:48:51.:48:53.

the people of Europe and giving succour to extremist parties. I

:48:54.:48:59.

thought it was quite an extraordinarily ill-advised thing

:49:00.:49:03.

for Boris Johnson to say. Particularly in light of recent

:49:04.:49:04.

comments from Ken Livingstone. Particularly in light of recent

:49:05.:49:09.

suspect Michael Forsyth agrees with that but as to diplomatic to say.

:49:10.:49:15.

I'm not usually diplomatic! It is not a ludicrous comparison because

:49:16.:49:20.

the EU is about agreement and consensus and it is brought relative

:49:21.:49:27.

peace to Europe in the last 60 years. -- it is ludicrous. It has

:49:28.:49:35.

brought a common market of 5 million consumers to Scotland which is

:49:36.:49:40.

beneficial to the economy. It ensures the whole of the UK enjoy

:49:41.:49:45.

social protections, employment and human rights, which we probably

:49:46.:49:49.

wouldn't otherwise enjoy giving this right wing government at the moment.

:49:50.:49:52.

You didn't appreciate Boris Johnson's comments. What I'd like to

:49:53.:50:00.

know is what you think should the vote to go to leave the EU, what

:50:01.:50:06.

Britain should do? There are different views about whether we

:50:07.:50:09.

should be part of the single market, have some arrangement whereby we

:50:10.:50:15.

have to have free movement of labour or whether we completely get out of

:50:16.:50:19.

it and negotiate trade agreements with other countries, without being

:50:20.:50:23.

part of the single market. Where are you on that spectrum?

:50:24.:50:29.

It's extraordinary to hear a Scottish National Party run the case

:50:30.:50:36.

for an unelected Brussels bureaucracy. I think we should be

:50:37.:50:40.

able to decide a own laws and spent our own money. And the moment we are

:50:41.:50:44.

contributing ?10 billion net to be told what to do and have our laws

:50:45.:50:49.

over ridden. Does that mean you would not like to have an agreement

:50:50.:50:54.

for the Britain outside the EU to have an agreement in the way that

:50:55.:50:59.

Norway or any different model Switzerland have? Norwegians pay

:51:00.:51:02.

lots of money in and have to do a lot of what the European Union says.

:51:03.:51:08.

Norway and Switzerland are tiny, we are the fifth largest economy in the

:51:09.:51:13.

world with huge relationships around the Commonwealth and elsewhere. The

:51:14.:51:15.

single market is an agreement between 28 countries in order to

:51:16.:51:21.

have common standards for products. The Americans export into Google,

:51:22.:51:25.

the Chinese exporting to Europe. It means that within Europe you have

:51:26.:51:29.

one common approach to particular products. That would still exist if

:51:30.:51:35.

we were out. You think we should be any system which for example keeps

:51:36.:51:41.

free of labour? Absolutely not. We had to gain control of our own

:51:42.:51:48.

Borders. We should be able to decide who comes into this country, we

:51:49.:51:52.

should be able to throw people out from this country who are a threat

:51:53.:51:56.

to security and to our way of life and we should be able to decide our

:51:57.:52:00.

own laws and not be subject to a foreign court. Perhaps you can cheat

:52:01.:52:08.

at the SNP's position because when it comes to Europe, the SNP doesn't

:52:09.:52:11.

seem to like it very much. They don't want the euro, you don't like

:52:12.:52:18.

the common fisheries policy but when it comes to Britain you can't get

:52:19.:52:21.

enough of it, you want an independent Scotland to have the

:52:22.:52:26.

pound, you're quite happy to have financial regulation by authorities

:52:27.:52:30.

in London, UK going on about a social union with the UK. Why is it

:52:31.:52:34.

you want to leave the UK and stay in Europe rather than the other way

:52:35.:52:39.

around? We want to leave the United Kingdom because we're not an equal

:52:40.:52:42.

partner in the latest kingdom. We would like to remain a member of

:52:43.:52:45.

Europe because we would like to be on an equal footing with other

:52:46.:52:48.

member states and I would like to take Lord Forsyth upon something he

:52:49.:52:52.

has said repeatedly. It is not true to say the laws are made by

:52:53.:52:58.

unelected bureaucrats. The laws are proposed by the commission. My point

:52:59.:53:04.

is the SNP actually isn't in favour of any of the key institutions of

:53:05.:53:08.

the contemporary European Union. That's simply not correct. If you

:53:09.:53:12.

would let me finish, it is not correct to say that Europe is not

:53:13.:53:16.

democratic. The laws are proposed by the commission which has 28

:53:17.:53:19.

commissioners appointed by member states to go to the council which

:53:20.:53:23.

consist of ministers from the directly elected members of the

:53:24.:53:27.

member state and they are then considered by the Parliament, which

:53:28.:53:30.

consists of directly elected members of the European Parliament. It is

:53:31.:53:34.

not correct to say it is not democratic. However, it is open to

:53:35.:53:38.

improvement and the SNP have been clean about that. Next year, the

:53:39.:53:41.

native kingdom of all the presidency of the European Council. If we are

:53:42.:53:47.

wise enough to stay part of Europe. That is a great opportunity for the

:53:48.:53:50.

United Kingdom to lead the way on reform. He mentioned the common

:53:51.:53:54.

fisheries policy. You're absolutely right to say the SNP are very

:53:55.:53:58.

unhappy with the way in which that has been conducted but that is the

:53:59.:54:01.

fault of the United Kingdom Government who have simply not going

:54:02.:54:05.

to -- gone into bat properly for fishermen in Scotland. What we like

:54:06.:54:14.

to see in the future is a Scottish minister from the Scottish

:54:15.:54:18.

Government carrying out negotiations with fisheries policies. The

:54:19.:54:22.

fisheries policy is one of the pillars of the European Union. They

:54:23.:54:27.

might be able to change the way it operates but the basic principle of

:54:28.:54:31.

it as far as I understand it, certainly Alex Salmond was against,

:54:32.:54:34.

you cannot be a member of the European Union without signing up to

:54:35.:54:40.

it. Alex was very clear last week. He gave a keynote speech in Brussels

:54:41.:54:43.

and was very clean about what she wanted to see happen in the common

:54:44.:54:47.

fisheries policy and he said he wanted to see the United Kingdom

:54:48.:54:51.

alone Scottish ministers who know about the fishing industry in

:54:52.:54:54.

Scotland to negotiate on Scotland's behalf. The UK Government in the

:54:55.:54:59.

past considered the fishing industry in Scotland expendable and we have

:55:00.:55:02.

been on the back foot from the outset. I do not believe the

:55:03.:55:05.

fisheries policy could not be made to work better for Scotland but that

:55:06.:55:09.

will only work better if we have a member from the Scottish Government

:55:10.:55:14.

is making a washy oceans rather than an analog -- unelected peer --

:55:15.:55:26.

making negotiations. There is an attempt to minimise this but

:55:27.:55:30.

everyone from Mark Carney dam is saying there is a serious risk. Now

:55:31.:55:35.

he isn't. This morning he refused to say although the bank has the

:55:36.:55:40.

capacity to do so, what the long-term benefit to benefit would

:55:41.:55:49.

be if we left the EU. All he is saying that in the short-term there

:55:50.:55:53.

may be a shock that people may put off decisions because of the

:55:54.:55:56.

uncertainty. He is only looking at the short term and he is using

:55:57.:55:59.

exactly the same models as the Treasury and the IMF and everyone

:56:00.:56:05.

else. It's not a question of models, it's accepted that companies are

:56:06.:56:08.

holding off investing until they find out which way it goes. And the

:56:09.:56:13.

IMF and people with their models are saying there could be great

:56:14.:56:16.

uncertainty and difficulty. It would be surprising if they did not create

:56:17.:56:19.

the effect which they are saying may arise. On the common fisheries

:56:20.:56:29.

policy, it means that our fisheries Ali common resource. I'd say the

:56:30.:56:33.

European Union, the Scottish Government will be able to decide

:56:34.:56:38.

what the quarters and arrangements are. The Council of ministers,

:56:39.:56:42.

Britain has voted 70 times against measures in the Council of ministers

:56:43.:56:47.

and been defeated on 70 occasions. The idea of an independent Scotland

:56:48.:56:51.

having an influence is nonsense. This business about the economy. The

:56:52.:56:57.

argument is that there may be some short-term shenanigans because

:56:58.:57:00.

people are holding off decisions on investment and eight be a head to

:57:01.:57:03.

the small market if there was a vote to leave,, but over the years the

:57:04.:57:12.

effect would be minimal. I disagree, I think they would be a considerable

:57:13.:57:18.

period of uncertainty but what Lord Forsyth and his friends in the

:57:19.:57:22.

Brexit movement is simply unachievable. Countries like Norway

:57:23.:57:25.

and Switzerland which are part of the European economic area are still

:57:26.:57:30.

subject to EU regulations, they just don't have any say in how they are

:57:31.:57:38.

made. One of the big part of the Brexit movement to prevent

:57:39.:57:40.

immigration to Britain is that they don't realise if you want to be part

:57:41.:57:43.

of the European economic area you had to accept the movement as well

:57:44.:57:48.

so they are putting the United Kingdom and Scottish economy into

:57:49.:57:50.

jeopardy to achieve the unachievable. Thank you both very

:57:51.:57:53.

much indeed. Now while some may have suggested

:57:54.:57:54.

the Holyrood election campaign was a little dull,

:57:55.:57:56.

there was no mistaking the buzz at parliament this week

:57:57.:58:00.

as the victors arrived I'm joined from Edinburgh by two

:58:01.:58:02.

of them - Alex Cole-Hamilton, who won Edinburgh Western

:58:03.:58:09.

for the Liberal Democrats, and Jenny Gilruth of the SNP,

:58:10.:58:11.

who is the new MSP for Jenny Gilruth, was this your first

:58:12.:58:27.

thing standing in an election? Yes, an interesting experience for me as

:58:28.:58:32.

a first-time candidate but a great experience to be a part of. What was

:58:33.:58:38.

it like? The ready teacher before Benji? I was in modern studies

:58:39.:58:44.

teacher, a head of Department, so it is a change from my day job. We are

:58:45.:58:51.

getting involved in meetings, getting to know her Parliament

:58:52.:58:55.

works, meeting with new MPs across the political divide. It has been a

:58:56.:59:03.

fantastic experience. It must be difficult to go from a very

:59:04.:59:06.

controlled environment like a classroom to something where it is

:59:07.:59:10.

perhaps not quite so clear what you're supposed to be doing. There

:59:11.:59:15.

is a clarity in terms of what we will be doing. If you been in the

:59:16.:59:21.

there is a level of control their! there is a level of control their!

:59:22.:59:27.

-- Tricia. That is a similarity between the chamber and classroom

:59:28.:59:32.

terms of how other members and sells conductors cells so there's an

:59:33.:59:35.

element of similarity between school and the chamber you could say. Alex

:59:36.:59:41.

Cole-Hamilton, you're a bit of a veteran, aren't you? I'm something

:59:42.:59:46.

of a one horse in terms of standing. You don't join the Liberal Democrats

:59:47.:59:51.

as a career move, they do because you believe in Civil Liberties, the

:59:52.:59:55.

environment and holding the SNP to account. This is my first time

:59:56.:59:59.

standing but I finally got there and I got the glory on the shoulders of

:00:00.:00:03.

the finest people I know, a massive campaign team that worked their guts

:00:04.:00:08.

out. What did you make of your first week? My head is utterly spinning. I

:00:09.:00:12.

have worked in a Scottish week? My head is utterly spinning. I

:00:13.:00:15.

since the beginning of devilish in but I realise how much I don't know.

:00:16.:00:21.

As Jenny said, the Parliament staff have been fantastic in getting us

:00:22.:00:25.

As Jenny said, the Parliament staff settled and easing us into the flow.

:00:26.:00:30.

I'm already getting stuck in. I'm interested in whether each of you

:00:31.:00:34.

has a particular policy area or proposal for a bill which is not

:00:35.:00:36.

mainstream in your own party that you would like to push. Jenny

:00:37.:00:40.

Gilruth, is there anything you would like to be able to come out at the

:00:41.:00:44.

end of this and say, this is what I achieved? At this moment in time I

:00:45.:00:48.

already deal to the people that voted for me and my commitment

:00:49.:00:51.

absolutely as to my constituency and to those who put their trust in me.

:00:52.:00:57.

At this bomb, not thinking personally what I could get out of

:00:58.:01:00.

this, this is about representing the people who put their faith in me.

:01:01.:01:04.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, Cupid for motions already, haven't you?

:01:05.:01:11.

Absolutely. My background is in children and young people's services

:01:12.:01:13.

Absolutely. My background is in and I've spent my adult life

:01:14.:01:16.

fighting for the rights of children so I'm going to bring a lot of that

:01:17.:01:26.

was meant to Holyrood and I'm setting targets for my tenure in

:01:27.:01:30.

Parliament. If you could put forward a bill for young people, what would

:01:31.:01:35.

be in it? We often say we want to be the best place in the world to go up

:01:36.:01:43.

yet we refuse as a country to use the European Convention's rights of

:01:44.:01:46.

a tiled so I would put forward a bill to incorporate that. -- writes

:01:47.:01:55.

of a child. Jenny Gilruth, you wouldn't be against that, would you?

:01:56.:01:59.

Certainly not. I have always encouraged my class to vote in

:02:00.:02:06.

elections for class representatives. We need to get more young people

:02:07.:02:10.

involved in the political process. That's something I feel passionately

:02:11.:02:16.

about. What about in terms of your party, Jenny Gilruth, is there

:02:17.:02:18.

anything in particular you would like to see the SNP having achieved

:02:19.:02:21.

at the end of this term that isn't there now? I'm proud of our

:02:22.:02:25.

achievements in education. there now? I'm proud of our

:02:26.:02:28.

Particularly we have invested a lot of money in the attainment fund and

:02:29.:02:31.

that is something I'd like to support going forward. I know we all

:02:32.:02:37.

feel passionately about that and I think the First Minister has showed

:02:38.:02:42.

to be a credible force on that front. Alex Cole-Hamilton,

:02:43.:02:50.

presumably you would agree with that because one of the Liberal

:02:51.:02:53.

Democrats' big issue was the people premium and we can, different things

:02:54.:02:57.

but what it amounts to is money for children who are in need.

:02:58.:03:02.

Absolutely. There was a report published that said we have actually

:03:03.:03:05.

slipped down the global rankings in terms of our quality of teaching and

:03:06.:03:11.

the achievements that students get in Scottish schools. We used to be

:03:12.:03:14.

world-beater and we are now average. We don't think that's good enough.

:03:15.:03:18.

The SNP have talked a good game but have come up wanting in terms of

:03:19.:03:22.

action. That is what the central pillar of the Democrat manifesto

:03:23.:03:28.

was. He didn't manage to keep the best pals up till the end. We'll see

:03:29.:03:37.

what it's like in future. Now, as with every election, plenty of

:03:38.:03:40.

energy was spent trying to predict the outcome of the vote and produced

:03:41.:03:42.

unexpected results. Now the experts have begun

:03:43.:03:48.

the process of trying to make Our reporter Andrew Black has been

:03:49.:03:50.

speaking to some of them. We've just seen a Scottish election

:03:51.:03:59.

to the building behind me which has produced some surprising results.

:04:00.:04:03.

The main headline is the SNP will be back for a third time in office but

:04:04.:04:07.

as human oddity Government instead of a majority Government. There has

:04:08.:04:12.

also been talk of a Scottish Tory revival in Scotland after Labour

:04:13.:04:16.

slumped to third place behind the Conservatives and the Greens managed

:04:17.:04:22.

to increase their number of seats. It's got expert asking, what just

:04:23.:04:26.

happened in Scotland? As the dust from election night settles, a group

:04:27.:04:31.

of academics, politicians and others gathered in Edinburgh to offer their

:04:32.:04:38.

thoughts on what happened. One of the key questions is why the SNP

:04:39.:04:43.

when it seemed so unstoppable fell back in terms of seats. The local

:04:44.:04:46.

system had something to do with it. We know that people didn't always

:04:47.:04:49.

backed the same parties across the two ballots and I think what we

:04:50.:04:54.

called split ticket voting is certainly responsible. The SNP was

:04:55.:05:00.

leaking supporters across the constituency and regional lists more

:05:01.:05:03.

than the other main parties and that probably didn't help in the end but

:05:04.:05:05.

than the other main parties and that also I think there was tactical

:05:06.:05:11.

voting. There has been much talk of the SNP's dominance being like a

:05:12.:05:14.

1-party state but if you look at things from a Welsh perspective, the

:05:15.:05:16.

situation in Scotland is anything A position of Welsh Labour Party

:05:17.:05:31.

makes a SNP look like Johnny come latelys. The Labour Party have

:05:32.:05:42.

dominated the Welsh elections for years at. The SNP's domination of

:05:43.:05:46.

Scottish politics is much more recent, much less a deeply grounded

:05:47.:05:51.

than Labour's domination of Welsh politics. Back in Scotland, are we

:05:52.:05:57.

seeing another shift in the political tectonic plates following

:05:58.:05:58.

the significant gains made by political tectonic plates following

:05:59.:06:03.

Conservatives? The Conservatives had a very good result. However, the

:06:04.:06:14.

party denied itself, it wasn't the Conservative Party, it was the

:06:15.:06:17.

receiver to party. Fair enough, but they have to build on that and

:06:18.:06:20.

translate Rick Davidson into the Conservative Party. They have to be

:06:21.:06:25.

an effective opposition and what does that mean? They have promised

:06:26.:06:30.

to be strong opposition, if it is negative and destructive it will not

:06:31.:06:35.

help. They have to become full. Then there is labour. Many people thought

:06:36.:06:40.

of the party as Scotland's dominant political force since time began at

:06:41.:06:44.

the election so their fortunes further decline. Why was that? The

:06:45.:06:51.

SNP are seen as a more effective vehicle for standing up to Scotland

:06:52.:06:55.

and more effective in government. These are issues the Labour Party

:06:56.:06:58.

will have to confront. The Labour Party has had a terrible election

:06:59.:07:02.

but they are far from dead. They have to get their act together and

:07:03.:07:06.

work out what kind of party at us and regain the initiative as

:07:07.:07:09.

Scotland's party of progressive politics. One thing is certain, the

:07:10.:07:19.

make-up of this new parliament will probably make the next few years

:07:20.:07:20.

pretty interesting. Let's discuss some of those issues,

:07:21.:07:21.

and what to expect from the days Joining me now are the

:07:22.:07:25.

Investigations Editor at the Sunday Herald,

:07:26.:07:34.

Paul Hutcheon, and Lindsay Mcintosh who is Scottish Political

:07:35.:07:37.

Editor at the Times. Did the minority government surprise

:07:38.:07:52.

you? Yes. And it surprised the pollsters. It is a different

:07:53.:07:58.

minority government this time around compared to 2007. They had to deal

:07:59.:08:07.

with the other parties then to get their agenda through. This time they

:08:08.:08:11.

have to strike deals but it is much easier. Presumably it depends who

:08:12.:08:22.

you do deals with. On tax, the Scottish Conservatives probably have

:08:23.:08:28.

the nearest to the SNP policy but if you're the SNP he might not

:08:29.:08:32.

particularly want to be seen to be getting your tax proposals through

:08:33.:08:37.

thanks to the Tories. There are 65 opposition MSPs and 63 government

:08:38.:08:44.

supporting MSPs. They have to get one party to support them on

:08:45.:08:51.

legislation. If you look at their manifesto and they stick rigidly to

:08:52.:08:56.

that, I think they will make alliances on a case-by-case basis.

:08:57.:08:59.

And things like income tax, council tax, the SNP is probably closest to

:09:00.:09:05.

the Conservative policies but if you look at issues like the named person

:09:06.:09:11.

scheme, the Tories tried mounting an attack on that, the Greens, Lib Dems

:09:12.:09:16.

and Labour will probably back the SNP. Also the welfare powers. I'd

:09:17.:09:23.

imagine the centre-left parties will support the SNP. I think it will be

:09:24.:09:28.

fun times. I don't have gates going to be a boring five years. Just on

:09:29.:09:38.

tax, the Greens, who you might think because of their views on

:09:39.:09:42.

independence are the newest of SNP, actually are probably the furthest

:09:43.:09:44.

away from them in terms of tax. Yes, actually are probably the furthest

:09:45.:09:48.

and I think the Tories are closest in taxation. On income tax, the only

:09:49.:09:54.

difference between Nicola Sturgeon and George Osborne's policy is

:09:55.:09:57.

fiddling with the middle rate. With the SNP be prepared to be seen to

:09:58.:10:03.

get into bed with the Tories on that? It depends how they spend it.

:10:04.:10:09.

Last week when Nicola Sturgeon talked about taxation she was

:10:10.:10:12.

committed to her income tax policy but seems to suggest she might shift

:10:13.:10:15.

on business rates. There is an ongoing review of them at the

:10:16.:10:19.

moment. Read it she was willing to strike a deal with the Tories and

:10:20.:10:23.

that's where she could go. There are are some issues and could be

:10:24.:10:28.

difficult for the SNP. Air passenger duty. Everyone but the SNP are

:10:29.:10:32.

against it. It maybe they have to come back with new that perhaps

:10:33.:10:38.

modify the proposals. I expect them to modify a number of policies. The

:10:39.:10:43.

legislation that criminalise defensive behaviour at football

:10:44.:10:47.

matches. That was railroaded through by the SNP government. It is clear

:10:48.:10:52.

that all the opposition parties are against large aspect of it. Not in

:10:53.:10:54.

its entirety. I imagine that might against large aspect of it. Not in

:10:55.:10:59.

be an early casualty of the first year. Other issues like the named

:11:00.:11:05.

person thing, I think that would survive, but they will have to box

:11:06.:11:09.

clever. They will not have at their own way like the last five years. It

:11:10.:11:14.

will be more similar like the first term when they governed by minority.

:11:15.:11:19.

It will be interesting. Independence, the Greens are in

:11:20.:11:24.

favour, pro-independence gets a small majority. How do you interpret

:11:25.:11:29.

what the SNP have been saying recently? They clearly don't want a

:11:30.:11:34.

referendum any time soon. I think there is only one test for another

:11:35.:11:39.

referendum and that is when the opinion polls consistently show

:11:40.:11:43.

people will vote yes. Why would they have a referendum before that? I

:11:44.:11:49.

think although there is a majority of independent supporting MSPs in

:11:50.:11:52.

parliament now, the manifestos which they stood on do not include a clear

:11:53.:11:56.

commitment to a referendum so I cannot see us having one any time

:11:57.:12:00.

soon. The green one was particularly roundabout. It suggested there would

:12:01.:12:06.

have to be a 1 million strong petition. Nicola Sturgeon is forming

:12:07.:12:09.

a new government this week. Do you expect big changes? I think she is

:12:10.:12:18.

gone to be splitting up the finance and economy brief. The thing that

:12:19.:12:21.

interests me is the education portfolio. Nicola Sturgeon says this

:12:22.:12:31.

is a key priority and how she wants to be judged. If I was her I would

:12:32.:12:36.

want my top minister in that portfolio. Looking round the Cabinet

:12:37.:12:43.

table, John Swinney is the most competent and able. He could perhaps

:12:44.:12:50.

combine finance? Maybe move him out of finance altogether. Maybe it is

:12:51.:12:58.

not going to be as onerous as it once was. Derek Mackay, Keith Brown

:12:59.:13:04.

could step into that job. John Swinney has been in the same job for

:13:05.:13:07.

nine years. Maybe it is time for a change. Arise John Swinney, would be

:13:08.:13:13.

your view? It would be the logical change. Arise John Swinney, would be

:13:14.:13:19.

choice but whether she goes down that road is another matter. I think

:13:20.:13:26.

I agree. Nicola Sturgeon said that brief is going to be split. Although

:13:27.:13:30.

John has been in it for nine years he is a respected member of the

:13:31.:13:33.

Cabinet and he has new powers over taxation and welfare. He is seen as

:13:34.:13:38.

a steady hand. Important for a government. Think of Gordon Brown as

:13:39.:13:46.

Chancellor. A big job for John Swinney whether he stays in finance

:13:47.:13:50.

or moves education. We might see some new blood at Cabinet or

:13:51.:13:53.

ministerial level as we saw from your earlier interviews, clearly

:13:54.:14:01.

there is new SNP talent. It be interesting to see if Nicola

:14:02.:14:04.

Sturgeon wants to try them out at a lower level. There was no other

:14:05.:14:09.

brief you can see changing other than education? Education is the one

:14:10.:14:12.

that's certainly going to go. On Tuesday we'll be bringing

:14:13.:14:14.

you special coverage of the election of the First Minister at quarter

:14:15.:14:18.

past two on BBC Two. I'll be back on Wednesday afternoon

:14:19.:14:21.

with Politics Scotland Soak up the atmosphere at the most

:14:22.:14:23.

famous flower show in the world. from the RHS Chelsea Flower Show

:14:24.:14:37.

2016.

:14:38.:14:41.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate.

Andrew Neil interviews Vote Leave campaigner Iain Duncan Smith and discusses government plans for Lords reform with Lord Strathclyde.

The political panel is made up of Helen Lewis, Isabel Oakeshott and Amol Rajan.


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