19/06/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


19/06/2016

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest on the EU referendum, including interviews with remain campaigner Paddy Ashdown and leave campaigner John Mann.


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Transcript


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As campaigning restarts after the tragic death of the MP

:00:43.:00:50.

Jo Cox, we'll be looking at how the final days leading up

:00:51.:00:53.

to Thursday's EU referendum could have a crucial impact

:00:54.:00:55.

The polls suggest it's all still too close to call as voters

:00:56.:01:01.

across the country make their final decision on whether the UK

:01:02.:01:04.

is better off in or out, of the European Union.

:01:05.:01:06.

And we'll be letting both campaigns go head to head

:01:07.:01:10.

as they test the substance of each other's arguments.

:01:11.:01:14.

Coming up in Sunday Politics Scotland:

:01:15.:01:15.

After a tragic week in British politics and with only days left

:01:16.:01:18.

in the referendum campaign, I'll be speaking to

:01:19.:01:20.

All that to come, and as we enter the final lap before the vote

:01:21.:01:36.

which will shape the future of Britain, I'm joined by three

:01:37.:01:39.

journalists who are just as in the dark about the likely

:01:40.:01:41.

Janan Ganesh, Tom Newton Dunn and Janet Daley.

:01:42.:01:47.

So campaigning is slowly beginning again after the death of the Labour

:01:48.:01:55.

MP Jo Cox on Thursday, with events planed today by both

:01:56.:01:58.

the official Remain and Leave groups.

:01:59.:02:02.

And we've heard from big figures from either side on the

:02:03.:02:04.

Labour leader and Remain supporter Jeremy Corbyn and Leave campaigner

:02:05.:02:10.

and Conservative minister Michael Gove were both asked

:02:11.:02:12.

Is there any kind of upper limit to immigration

:02:13.:02:18.

I don't think you can have one while you have the free movement

:02:19.:02:22.

of labour and I think the free movement of labour means that

:02:23.:02:25.

you have to balance the economy so you have to improve living

:02:26.:02:28.

And so that means the European Union's appalling treatment

:02:29.:02:35.

of Greece, particularly the European Central Bank

:02:36.:02:37.

as well as the European Union, that is a problem.

:02:38.:02:42.

So if you actually deliberately lower living standards and increase

:02:43.:02:44.

poverty in certain countries in south-east or eastern Europe,

:02:45.:02:47.

then you are bound to have a flow of people looking for somewhere

:02:48.:02:50.

Surely the issue is an anti-austerity, a growth package

:02:51.:02:55.

When I've had the opportunity to talk about migration

:02:56.:03:00.

during the course of this debate, I hope I have been very clear.

:03:01.:03:03.

I am pro-migration but I believe that the way in which we secure

:03:04.:03:10.

public support for the continued benefits that migration brings

:03:11.:03:12.

and the way in which we secure public support for helping refugees

:03:13.:03:15.

in need is if people feel that they can control the numbers

:03:16.:03:17.

In Canada and Australia, two countries I very much admire,

:03:18.:03:21.

they have control and therefore they are able both to welcome

:03:22.:03:24.

Both sides talking about immigration. Mr Corbyn saying no

:03:25.:03:36.

upper limit as long as we have free movement in the EU. That is honest

:03:37.:03:42.

but will not be welcome perhaps by the Remain campaign. Not in the

:03:43.:03:49.

slightest. The Leave campaign sleeper agent strikes against! It

:03:50.:03:53.

was Alex Gregory thing to say and you can imagine Jeremy Corbyn being

:03:54.:03:59.

piled full briefing notes before, saying whatever you do, don't talk

:04:00.:04:05.

about people coming in their droves -- an extraordinary thing to say. He

:04:06.:04:11.

threw that all in the bin and told it truthfully, as he saw it. It may

:04:12.:04:15.

be the thing that precipitate a leadership challenge on him after

:04:16.:04:22.

the referendum. Much talk of that but no evidence. What did you make

:04:23.:04:28.

of it? I picked was a phenomenal performance for a covert agent for

:04:29.:04:33.

the opposite side, not such a good performance for a sincere... It was

:04:34.:04:38.

honest. It was candid but there is still an element of the country

:04:39.:04:43.

which is pro-Remain in the most grudging way possible and his

:04:44.:04:47.

approach might resonate a bit more with the more enthusiastic approach

:04:48.:04:50.

from George Osborne or David Cameron. The most telling thing this

:04:51.:04:55.

morning is when Nigel Farage was pressed on his controversial poster

:04:56.:04:59.

on migration a few days ago and his response was to say that the

:05:00.:05:02.

mainstream Leave campaign have come up with some pretty fruity posters

:05:03.:05:07.

of their own on that subject. I think the beginnings of a split

:05:08.:05:12.

between those sides of the Leave campaign, on the tone of how you

:05:13.:05:16.

deal with the issue of migration, might open up even in the last few

:05:17.:05:20.

days. Is there a difference to the tone of the campaign even when

:05:21.:05:26.

talking about immigration? Or is it back to business as usual? The

:05:27.:05:31.

substance of the argument remains substance of the argument remains

:05:32.:05:37.

the same Ulster Jeremy Corbyn put his finger in the league right on

:05:38.:05:44.

it. As a consequence of the hideous events of the last couple of days if

:05:45.:05:49.

that is a tendency to imply that anybody associated with the Leave

:05:50.:05:54.

campaign, anybody who expresses concerns about the numbers of

:05:55.:05:59.

immigrants, the flow of migration, is somehow a right-wing extremist, a

:06:00.:06:05.

fascist who is, by implication, associated with this crime. Jeremy

:06:06.:06:11.

Corbyn didn't do that. I am saying there is a tone in the media

:06:12.:06:15.

coverage that implies guilt by association with anybody who

:06:16.:06:17.

expresses concern about migration and that is very dangerous because

:06:18.:06:26.

the surest way to drive people into extraparliamentary opposition and

:06:27.:06:30.

dissidents is to make it clear that no respectable politician will pick

:06:31.:06:33.

up their concerns. Did you agree with Nigel Farage? Of course not.

:06:34.:06:38.

Nothing is wrong with pointing it out. George Osborne has poured

:06:39.:06:46.

petrol on the plane is talking about the echoes of 1930s. -- the flames.

:06:47.:06:55.

That is absurd. Your point about a split in the Leave campaign, there

:06:56.:07:00.

have been a split from the off. Right from the beginning. There is a

:07:01.:07:07.

difference in tone between... I was going to say, the story last week

:07:08.:07:14.

was of a widening gap with Remain in the lead that was the opinion polls,

:07:15.:07:19.

sorry, with Leave in the lead. If you were on the Remain site, would

:07:20.:07:23.

you not take comfort from the polls today? Especially from the fact

:07:24.:07:29.

that, according to YouGov, the mood in the polls predate the killing of

:07:30.:07:33.

Jo Cox so you could conclusion there is a structural reversion to

:07:34.:07:35.

continue to which often occurs before big elections. -- continuity.

:07:36.:07:44.

But it does not help that you have the lead of the opposition getting

:07:45.:07:49.

into a conversation about free movement. One of the biggest poll

:07:50.:07:54.

findings, the number of people who feel they would lose out material

:07:55.:08:00.

from Brexit has gone up from 23 233% and that is how win.

:08:01.:08:03.

Plenty of opinion polls in this morning's papers,

:08:04.:08:05.

as you'd expect in the last weekend before the vote.

:08:06.:08:07.

There will be more to come in the days ahead.

:08:08.:08:10.

Of course, polls are not quite the holy grail these days,

:08:11.:08:13.

especially after their failure to get the result right

:08:14.:08:15.

And the pollsters find referendums even trickier than other votes.

:08:16.:08:18.

But imperfect as they may be, they're what we've got and they've

:08:19.:08:21.

told an interesting story throughout the campaign.

:08:22.:08:23.

Polls conducted by phone like this one back in May by Ipsos Mori have

:08:24.:08:29.

consistently put Remain ahead - here with an 18-point lead,

:08:30.:08:31.

But signs things were changing emerged at the end of last month,

:08:32.:08:38.

as one phone poll showed Leave three points ahead.

:08:39.:08:41.

And just this Thursday the latest Ipsos Mori survey caused a bit

:08:42.:08:44.

of a stir when it showed Leave with a six-point lead.

:08:45.:08:47.

But those carried out online have shown a different story,

:08:48.:08:54.

with the two sides level pegging or with Leave ahead.

:08:55.:08:57.

Back in May before the 'purdah' period which stopped the government

:08:58.:09:02.

taking part in the campaign, one internet poll gave

:09:03.:09:04.

Almost a month later, another online poll,

:09:05.:09:08.

this one by ICM, had Leave five points ahead.

:09:09.:09:14.

But this YouGov survey is one of four polls released overnight,

:09:15.:09:17.

suggesting both sides are neck and neck, suggesting the result

:09:18.:09:20.

So that's the story told by the polls in the months leading

:09:21.:09:27.

up to the referendum, and just so you have the full

:09:28.:09:29.

YouGov for the Sunday Times puts Remain on 44%, one point

:09:30.:09:35.

Another YouGov poll for Good Morning Britain gives

:09:36.:09:42.

Opinium for the Observer has Leave and Remain level pegging on 44%.

:09:43.:09:48.

And Survation for the Mail on Sunday, the only telephone

:09:49.:09:50.

poll today, has Remain on 45% and Leave on 42%.

:09:51.:10:00.

Well, there's only one man we can turn to explain what it all means -

:10:01.:10:04.

I speak of course of elections expert John Curtice,

:10:05.:10:06.

Four new polls out this morning. What do they tell us? They certainly

:10:07.:10:20.

provide a degree of relief for David Cameron and the remaining macro side

:10:21.:10:24.

after some dire polls last week which almost unanimously suggested a

:10:25.:10:30.

sharp drop in support for Remain. But it is perhaps an indication of

:10:31.:10:34.

just how tight this referendum has become that three Internet polls

:10:35.:10:39.

between suggested it was 50-50 and one telephone pole, which although

:10:40.:10:45.

it puts Remain back in the lead, it makes the lead much narrower that in

:10:46.:10:49.

any previous point in the campaign. The fact that that is regarded as

:10:50.:10:54.

good news for them is an indication of how much trouble they had got

:10:55.:10:58.

into seemingly. I think these polls were taken at a time when it was too

:10:59.:11:06.

early, tell me if I'm wrong, to see if the appalling tragedy of Jo Cox

:11:07.:11:11.

has had any impact on the campaign. I think that is correct. The

:11:12.:11:17.

telephone poll was done entirely afterwards, one of the YouGov polls

:11:18.:11:22.

was done mostly afterwards. They are saying that the poll they did just

:11:23.:11:26.

before was already showing Remain increasing and the one after shows

:11:27.:11:33.

that continuing further. Given that there was a widespread expectation

:11:34.:11:36.

that perhaps Remain would start to regain ground as people considered

:11:37.:11:42.

the possible risks of voting for Leave, maybe this process had

:11:43.:11:46.

already kicked in and that is explaining something of a movement

:11:47.:11:51.

back towards Remain, and it may not necessarily have anything to do with

:11:52.:11:55.

the tragic murder of Jo Cox. There is nothing in these polls to be able

:11:56.:11:58.

to pin it definitively on that particular event. It is often said

:11:59.:12:09.

in referenda that there can be a reversion to the status quo on the

:12:10.:12:13.

final day and that would be to vote to remain. Is there any sign of

:12:14.:12:17.

that? And what can you tell us about the undecideds? I saw some of the

:12:18.:12:23.

polling suggesting that those who were undecided, if they vote, they

:12:24.:12:28.

are more likely to vote to remain than to come out. Your first point,

:12:29.:12:34.

it is precisely whether that process are people reverting back to the

:12:35.:12:39.

status quo is already kicking in and this explains why the polls this

:12:40.:12:43.

weekend are somewhat better than those in the week. And I think what

:12:44.:12:47.

it does seem to be the case, we are asking is that movement to leave was

:12:48.:12:55.

a stone that was gathering more moss and would continue this weekend and

:12:56.:12:59.

that clearly hadn't happened. Remain may hope that people reverting back

:13:00.:13:04.

to the status quo might happen, that is the first point. The second was

:13:05.:13:10.

about the significance of the undecideds. The number of them going

:13:11.:13:16.

down and the people who have made up their mind is going up but you are

:13:17.:13:20.

right that most polls find that the people who don't know are most

:13:21.:13:26.

likely to vote first of all and the second thing they are likely to do

:13:27.:13:31.

is to vote for Remain. And many of the opinion polls published now are

:13:32.:13:36.

already including into their headline tallies the reported votes

:13:37.:13:39.

of those who initially said they were undecided but are asked a

:13:40.:13:45.

follow up squeeze question. We should not say there is more ground

:13:46.:13:50.

to be made for Remain from that particular phenomenon. Thank you.

:13:51.:13:53.

Only a few days to go, so how will the campaigns try to win

:13:54.:13:56.

over undecided voters in the short time they have remaining?

:13:57.:14:00.

Well, we're joined now from Somerset by the former Lib Dem

:14:01.:14:02.

And here in the studio by the Labour MP and Leave campaigner,

:14:03.:14:07.

Paddy Ashdown, do you get a sense this weekend, if I can put it this

:14:08.:14:20.

way, that the Remain campaign is back on track? Andrew Neil, you

:14:21.:14:27.

really want to bring me on straight after John Curtis, my nemesis, and

:14:28.:14:34.

ask me to disagree with him! The last time I had to eat my hat... I

:14:35.:14:39.

disagreed with John twice on the poll now and I have been wrong on

:14:40.:14:43.

every occasion and I'm delighted to make my apologies to him on your

:14:44.:14:47.

programme. I don't know all the I think what you're talking about with

:14:48.:14:51.

John about the undecided voters maybe keep to this, if they vote or

:14:52.:14:58.

not, and if they do, will they vote in favour of remaining as people

:14:59.:15:05.

predict. I don't think any of us know. It is all within a margin of

:15:06.:15:09.

error, it is all to play for and it looks to me, extremely tight.

:15:10.:15:17.

Perhaps a small shift in favour of remaining macro but too small to be

:15:18.:15:18.

certain about it. We got some austere stories about

:15:19.:15:27.

the economy from the Chancellor this morning on ITV. In the final three

:15:28.:15:31.

days, starting tomorrow, three more days of campaigning to go, is that

:15:32.:15:38.

the right way to go, or would you advise the Remain campaign to start

:15:39.:15:42.

putting out a more positive message about remaining in the EU? They are

:15:43.:15:47.

following a playbook they have followed before. I'm not involved

:15:48.:15:52.

with the Remain campaign. My advice to voters, when it comes to

:15:53.:15:56.

predictions on the economy, do not listen to either side, listen to the

:15:57.:16:01.

independent voices whose job it is, paid by all the nations on earth, to

:16:02.:16:06.

make judgments about the economic consequences of our political

:16:07.:16:10.

actions. They have been wrong before, but I'll be all wrong? Are

:16:11.:16:16.

only Mr Johnson and Mr Farage red? People need to realise they are

:16:17.:16:20.

betting their jobs and the national economy on this. Nothing is certain,

:16:21.:16:25.

but when you make the judgment, you probably want to wear on your mind,

:16:26.:16:30.

not George Osborne's comments, or Boris Johnson's from the other side,

:16:31.:16:35.

they will put the point as they want to, but those independent voices,

:16:36.:16:40.

every single one of them, without exception, who are independent of

:16:41.:16:44.

the campaign, the global experts on this. This is not a conspiracy, it

:16:45.:16:53.

is a consensus, all of them say it will seriously damage our economy.

:16:54.:16:55.

For most people, worried about their jobs, that will be a more powerful

:16:56.:17:05.

factor in making your decision. More powerful than the words of the

:17:06.:17:10.

opposition parties. Some in Remain may not regard it as helpful, but

:17:11.:17:14.

Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC this morning that with free movement

:17:15.:17:19.

within the EU, you can have no upper limit on immigration. That was

:17:20.:17:23.

accurate and honest, wasn't it? One thing you can be sure of, if we

:17:24.:17:30.

leave the European Union, you will control immigration, but not anyway

:17:31.:17:34.

that the out campaigners claim. You will trash the economy, far fewer

:17:35.:17:39.

jobs and no one will want to come here. Your language is interesting.

:17:40.:17:44.

We will trash the economy, not that we will not grow as fast, not that

:17:45.:17:50.

it will be better to stay in than I'd, but we will trash the economy?

:17:51.:17:58.

Find another word, if you wish. We are slowly recovering from

:17:59.:18:02.

recession. It has been massive pain to get out of the mess we were in.

:18:03.:18:08.

The international economy, all of those who comment, they say in big

:18:09.:18:13.

terms are small towns, the used strong words are relatively more

:18:14.:18:17.

moderated ones, the agree it will push us back into recession. You can

:18:18.:18:24.

use trash the economy or say we are going back into recession. Creating

:18:25.:18:27.

those jobs, making Britain one of the best economies in Europe, we

:18:28.:18:31.

would turn that around if we came out. The consequences will be for

:18:32.:18:37.

jobs and businesses, the tax revenues for the government that

:18:38.:18:41.

pays for our public services, it will be very serious. John Mann,

:18:42.:18:47.

immigration has been a big part of the Leave campaign. Did the town get

:18:48.:18:52.

too hostile on immigration, did it get to a robust? Yes, and Nigel

:18:53.:18:58.

Farage's poster is the worst example of that. It would be better known if

:18:59.:19:02.

it had not been produced and he withdrew it. It is unhelpful and

:19:03.:19:07.

inaccurate, irrelevant to the real debate. So yes. What did you make of

:19:08.:19:13.

Jeremy Corbyn's remarks this morning on immigration? The issues in

:19:14.:19:19.

working-class communities remain. The issues are about pay, agency

:19:20.:19:24.

work, they are about people's hopes for the future. When you have zero

:19:25.:19:30.

our contracts, when the health services under pressure, and people

:19:31.:19:34.

see privatisation and cuts, the Labour agenda on Friday, whatever

:19:35.:19:38.

the result, it has to get into that. If it is a Leave vote, the first

:19:39.:19:46.

thing Labour could be doing was demanding a dash was demanding an

:19:47.:19:50.

immediate end of the procurement rules for public services. We could

:19:51.:19:54.

argue for an increase in public servers pay, to stop the impact of

:19:55.:19:57.

the European Court rulings and reinforcing agencies. It is agencies

:19:58.:20:02.

and the uncertainty in the labour market that is really behind the

:20:03.:20:09.

strain that appears to be in working -- the strength that appears to be

:20:10.:20:11.

in working-class communities for Kallis leave. There are only three

:20:12.:20:19.

days to go. Is the biggest issue immigration again? I hope not. I

:20:20.:20:24.

hope it is about hope and vision for what kind of country we want in the

:20:25.:20:29.

future, and how best in the modern technological age, where the

:20:30.:20:33.

computer has been invented, where we order things online, where big

:20:34.:20:37.

developments will get even faster, about how we deal with the whole of

:20:38.:20:43.

the world. I think that politicians, MPs, all of us, myself included, we

:20:44.:20:50.

remain extremely shaken by the horrific murder of Jo Cox. I think

:20:51.:20:55.

there will be less campaigning, less than there was. However strong

:20:56.:21:01.

people's views, they do not want to be banging on doors at the current

:21:02.:21:06.

time. I think there will be less politicians out and about and there

:21:07.:21:10.

would have been. There seems to be of their weight behind Leave, last

:21:11.:21:15.

week, certainly, up until the terrible events on Thursday. Do you

:21:16.:21:18.

get a sense that it could be slipping away from you this weekend?

:21:19.:21:23.

From the polls last time, I would have expected them to bounce back

:21:24.:21:26.

little bit. It will depend on turnout. If there is a

:21:27.:21:32.

disproportionately high turnout in the areas that do not normally vote,

:21:33.:21:38.

it will end up with a Leave vote. If it is lower, it will be Remain.

:21:39.:21:44.

Turnout will decide. It is not predictable. I hope the vast

:21:45.:21:48.

majority of people are voting and whatever the result, we need to get

:21:49.:21:52.

together as a country, and get behind that result. Paddy Ashdown...

:21:53.:22:01.

Would you allow me. It is a really important statement that John Mann

:22:02.:22:05.

has made. I admire him very much and I know he is just as interested in

:22:06.:22:09.

the future of this country as I am. If it is the case that the terrible

:22:10.:22:14.

death of Jo Cox, who I campaigned with on the issues of refugees and

:22:15.:22:19.

two I had massive admiration for, if that has led to a change in tone,

:22:20.:22:25.

that would be welcome. The way that John put his case and the way he

:22:26.:22:28.

moved away from the Nigel Farage poster, which I find distasteful, if

:22:29.:22:33.

that is the tone of this campaign, I do not think it will massively alter

:22:34.:22:38.

the result, but that last we will have a campaign we can be proud of,

:22:39.:22:43.

one that I have felt so far extremely ashamed about. High octane

:22:44.:22:48.

insults from both sides. Some of that is because it is an internal

:22:49.:22:53.

civil war in the Tory party, and they are always the worst. I was at

:22:54.:22:57.

the Oval the other day, and the man came up to the In campaign and said

:22:58.:23:03.

they should be executed. If we can get away from that, lower the tone

:23:04.:23:07.

and follow the approach John Mann is suggesting, we will have a good

:23:08.:23:12.

debate, honoured democracy, and it's essential qualities of tolerance and

:23:13.:23:16.

respect for others, rather than the kind of thing we have had in recent

:23:17.:23:21.

weeks. Will the final three days of the campaign be that different in

:23:22.:23:27.

tone? I think they will be. Certainly members of Parliament will

:23:28.:23:35.

be careful on the language used. I hope on the Leave site, everyone

:23:36.:23:39.

will distance themselves from Nigel Farage's poster and what lay behind

:23:40.:23:45.

that. I hope that on the Remain side, people Walsh move away from

:23:46.:23:48.

the exaggerations that have taken place. -- people will move. Paddy

:23:49.:23:56.

Ashdown. I agree with that as well. We have dealt in hyperbole. The

:23:57.:24:02.

public does not trust either side. If we can change that now, if we can

:24:03.:24:07.

come back to a statement of the facts, maybe relying on independent

:24:08.:24:13.

opinions, I think the last few days of the campaign will honour us. In

:24:14.:24:18.

the interests of our anti-hyperbole Drive, can both Remain and Leave

:24:19.:24:22.

agree that when the French economic minister says that if we vote to

:24:23.:24:27.

leave, we will be no more important than Guernsey, we can file that

:24:28.:24:33.

under hyperbole? Yes, you can. You may be able to file it under trash.

:24:34.:24:39.

Thank you. Thank you, John Mann, we can file that under hyperbole? Yes,

:24:40.:24:41.

we can. Now, over the past two weeks we've

:24:42.:24:46.

been letting the politicians from either side of this referendum

:24:47.:24:49.

debate interrogate each other over what they feel are the really

:24:50.:24:51.

big issues at stake. Today, in the last of the series

:24:52.:24:54.

for now, we've invited the Green Party MP and Remain

:24:55.:24:56.

campaigner Caroline Lucas to question the Conservative

:24:57.:24:59.

minister and Leave campaigner A little earlier, we tossed a coin

:25:00.:25:00.

to see who would go first. Dominic was the winner,

:25:01.:25:07.

and he chose to answer So, before we get started,

:25:08.:25:09.

let's have a listen to Domnic Raab making the case for why undecided

:25:10.:25:18.

voters should vote to leave. I am confident in you,

:25:19.:25:25.

the British people, and I am also convinced with my head and my heart

:25:26.:25:30.

that we can only reach our full Take some of the positives

:25:31.:25:33.

of leaving the EU, our small businesses would be freed up

:25:34.:25:39.

from straitjacket regulation. That is important for us

:25:40.:25:43.

because small businesses in this We would be freed up to trade more

:25:44.:25:46.

energetically with the growth markets of the future,

:25:47.:25:51.

from Asia to Latin America, which will cut prices in the shops,

:25:52.:25:53.

and we will take back full control over the money we give the EU,

:25:54.:26:01.

and our gross contribution is now ?350 million every week

:26:02.:26:04.

and certain to rise. When it comes to immigration it can

:26:05.:26:06.

bring huge benefits, but only if it is properly

:26:07.:26:08.

controlled. Uncontrolled immigration from the EU

:26:09.:26:10.

has put pressure on jobs and wages, and a massive strain

:26:11.:26:14.

on infrastructure, The truth is, we cannot properly

:26:15.:26:15.

control immigration There is something bigger in this

:26:16.:26:21.

debate, something I want us to be masters

:26:22.:26:24.

of our own destiny. I want it as a citizen,

:26:25.:26:29.

as a father, and I want it With the majority of laws now made

:26:30.:26:32.

in Brussels by politicians and bureaucrats not elected

:26:33.:26:38.

by or accountable to you, we can only truly be masters

:26:39.:26:41.

of our own destiny if we vote to leave the EU on 23rd June

:26:42.:26:44.

and take back democratic control. And here are Caroline

:26:45.:26:49.

Lucas and Dominic Raab. And just to explain the rules,

:26:50.:26:51.

Caroline has just five minutes She can only ask questions,

:26:52.:27:00.

and he can only give answers. Thank you. Dominik, how much is

:27:01.:27:10.

Britain's net weekly contribution to the EU? Weekly? The grosses 350

:27:11.:27:16.

million and the net contribution is around half of that. You will know

:27:17.:27:21.

that on this leaflet it says, let's give NHS the 350 million the EU

:27:22.:27:26.

takes every week. Is that not misleading because it is not the

:27:27.:27:30.

real figure? After was four months of campaigning, people have

:27:31.:27:34.

understood there is a difference between the gross contribution, and

:27:35.:27:37.

that includes some of the things that the EU spends in this country

:27:38.:27:42.

on our behalf, without is being able to prioritise, as well as the amount

:27:43.:27:47.

we give and do not see back. We want the money back that the EU spends on

:27:48.:27:53.

itself. Do you accept this as a wrong figure? We want control over

:27:54.:27:58.

the money we put in. It is the gross contribution, I have made that

:27:59.:28:02.

clear. We never send the men from the rebate, so we cannot possibly be

:28:03.:28:07.

spending that again on the NHS. Why should anyone believe your side on

:28:08.:28:12.

the NHS, given that also some of the key vote leave campaigners are

:28:13.:28:15.

people who want to privatise the NHS? We have a wide range of

:28:16.:28:21.

politicians involved. We have heard from John Mann. You're some of the

:28:22.:28:26.

most left-wing unions like our side. In relation to what we said about

:28:27.:28:31.

the NHS, we would take 100 million each week from the net contribution.

:28:32.:28:35.

That is the allocation that would be made. When you get your salary from

:28:36.:28:40.

the House of Commons you get a gross figure. There is a difference

:28:41.:28:47.

between that and your take-home pay. There is no difference here. That is

:28:48.:28:50.

a misleading figure. I want to come onto another poster. This is another

:28:51.:28:55.

one you will be familiar with. The Leave side are sending at around the

:28:56.:28:59.

country. It says that Turkey I leaving the EU. On a scale of one to

:29:00.:29:05.

ten, how would you rate the suggestion that Turkey is close to

:29:06.:29:13.

becoming a EU member? I think it is right. Turkey is in the process of

:29:14.:29:16.

joining. British taxpayers are already paying ?1.8 billion between

:29:17.:29:25.

2014 and 2022 pave the way. We have had politicians from Tony Blair to

:29:26.:29:28.

David Cameron making it clear that the UK wants Turkey to join the EU.

:29:29.:29:34.

The UK has a veto, doesn't it? It cannot possibly join in the UK uses

:29:35.:29:42.

that? It is a theoretical veto. It is real. Can you imagine Cyprus not

:29:43.:29:48.

using its veto? From Tony Blair to David Cameron, the consensus in this

:29:49.:29:52.

country is that Turkey should join the EU. Our diplomats are working on

:29:53.:29:57.

measures to expedite that happening. You have got to take into account

:29:58.:30:03.

the impact that would have. How many of the 35 chapters or areas of

:30:04.:30:06.

compliance that Turkey would have to fulfil before it could join, how

:30:07.:30:10.

many of those have been fulfilled in the last 30 years they have been

:30:11.:30:11.

trying to join? Not many. It is one. That is why it is worrying that in

:30:12.:30:25.

Whitehall and in Brussels they are expediting Turkish membership. I was

:30:26.:30:28.

in the Foreign Office when the eight countries from Central and eastern

:30:29.:30:31.

Europe were playing and in many of those cases those criteria were

:30:32.:30:35.

ignored because the political will was there and that is what we have

:30:36.:30:40.

now. Would you accept that this leaflet is misleading because it

:30:41.:30:43.

sounds like it is going to happen soon and it clearly isn't and

:30:44.:30:51.

Britain has a veto? Turkish membership of the EU is a question

:30:52.:30:55.

of when and not if and in that case it is right. Do you think is

:30:56.:30:59.

contributing to an atmosphere of fear and hatred? The responsible

:31:00.:31:02.

thing is to talk about immigration in a sensitive way and if you ignore

:31:03.:31:07.

it and you don't talk about the costs of immigration, you're going

:31:08.:31:10.

to get far more fringe extremist politics. That's not airbrush it out

:31:11.:31:19.

of the debate. I want to ask you, key campaigners on the Leave side

:31:20.:31:22.

like Nigel Lawson and Nigel Farage are at best climate sceptics is not

:31:23.:31:27.

climate deniers do you agree with them? I'm not a climate sceptic at

:31:28.:31:30.

climate deniers do you agree with all. You were pleased to see the

:31:31.:31:35.

agreement in Paris? Did the EU play a good role? The problem we have is

:31:36.:31:39.

that 10% of CO2 emissions come from the EU and 90% from the rest of the

:31:40.:31:43.

world so we need a global 08 regional approach. When I dealt with

:31:44.:31:48.

a lot of global institutions, the problem is the EU is so inward

:31:49.:31:51.

looking, we lose sight of the big picture and it is global not

:31:52.:31:55.

regional. The EU played a key role in Paris in terms of ratcheting up

:31:56.:32:01.

the ambition, yes or no? I don't think the ambition was particularly

:32:02.:32:03.

high if you look at the Regent of the world outside the EU. We will

:32:04.:32:05.

leave it there. -- the regions. Now it's the turn of Caroline

:32:06.:32:09.

to be cross-examined. First, let's have a look

:32:10.:32:11.

at her pitch to undecided voters, arguing the case

:32:12.:32:14.

for a vote to remain. They are in their early 20s now,

:32:15.:32:19.

and this referendum goes to the heart of the kind of future

:32:20.:32:23.

I want for them, that all of us want for our young

:32:24.:32:26.

people and for Britain. Yet there is a risk that the outcome

:32:27.:32:29.

will be decided by older generations if young people do not get

:32:30.:32:32.

out and vote. The EU can help us build a safer,

:32:33.:32:35.

better future, because the biggest challenges we face today

:32:36.:32:38.

are by their very nature international, and are best tackled

:32:39.:32:40.

by working hand-in-hand with our neighbours,

:32:41.:32:42.

challenges like climate change, the refugee crisis, cross-border

:32:43.:32:45.

crime and terrorism. The EU has been a force for good,

:32:46.:32:50.

from guaranteeing workers' rights to protecting our shared environment

:32:51.:32:53.

and helping to create jobs in every To turn our backs on this would be

:32:54.:32:56.

to turn our backs on a safer, greener, more prosperous

:32:57.:33:02.

and peaceful future. This referendum will define

:33:03.:33:04.

what kind of country our children Do we want to be an isolated,

:33:05.:33:06.

inward-looking country that cares only about what it can get out

:33:07.:33:15.

of the rest of the world, or do we want to be a generous,

:33:16.:33:19.

confident and outward-looking country that wants to be able

:33:20.:33:22.

to play its part in making Let's not take our

:33:23.:33:25.

country backwards. I taught my children that the right

:33:26.:33:27.

thing to do when confronted with a challenge is to stand tall

:33:28.:33:31.

and find a solution, That is why I am voting to remain

:33:32.:33:34.

on June 23rd and I am So, as before, Dominic,

:33:35.:33:40.

you have six minutes to question Caroline,

:33:41.:33:45.

off you go. The organisation which is trying to

:33:46.:33:57.

independently verify facts for the public estimate that around 50 to

:33:58.:34:03.

60% of UK law that are now made in Brussels. How high would that

:34:04.:34:06.

percentage have to be for you to be in favour of leaving the EU? It

:34:07.:34:11.

depends why those rules are being made in Brussels. They are being

:34:12.:34:14.

made because getting single market and we want to make sure there are

:34:15.:34:18.

strong social and environmental standards, I'm delighted that they

:34:19.:34:22.

are being made in Brussels, they should be come they are there

:34:23.:34:25.

because we want to make sure cross-border problems like air

:34:26.:34:29.

pollution are controlled because we have the ability to work

:34:30.:34:32.

cross-border in the EU, absolutely it should be there. Looking at bold

:34:33.:34:37.

figures does not help us. If 100% of the laws were made in Brussels,

:34:38.:34:42.

fined by you? It's a bit ridiculous to think that not a single domestic

:34:43.:34:46.

law would be made in Britain. Things like housing and defence and some

:34:47.:34:52.

issues are still decided at UK level. Where would you draw the

:34:53.:34:56.

line? I'm trying to get a sense of when you think the tipping point

:34:57.:34:59.

arrives when we have lost so much of our democracy. I would challenge the

:35:00.:35:04.

premise of your question because the idea that the EU is fundamentally

:35:05.:35:09.

more undemocratic than with Minster is wrong. The government that you

:35:10.:35:13.

represent was elected with just 24% of the eligible vote, we have an

:35:14.:35:16.

unelected House of Lords, at least in the European institutions we have

:35:17.:35:21.

a parliament are through proportional representation and the

:35:22.:35:23.

Council of ministers which means that if a democratic oversight of

:35:24.:35:27.

the rules coming from Brussels. When the people watching the show get to

:35:28.:35:33.

hold to account the 27th of heads of government in the European Council,

:35:34.:35:36.

the 10th of thousands of bureaucrats and the 90% of MEPs not from

:35:37.:35:43.

Britain? -- tens of thousands. There are fewer people working for the

:35:44.:35:48.

interjections in Brussels than for Kent County Council for example. --

:35:49.:35:52.

for the institutions. I would be the first to say that

:35:53.:36:04.

EU should be more democratic and accountable, I would like to see the

:36:05.:36:10.

European Parliament have more powers and the commission have fewer. To

:36:11.:36:13.

suggest that would be a reason for leaving the EU is just wrong, we

:36:14.:36:18.

need to be in there to fight it. Net immigration from the EU was 184,000

:36:19.:36:22.

last year, that is the equivalent of a size city the size of Oxford. Do

:36:23.:36:30.

you think there should be any limit on the volume of immigration from

:36:31.:36:35.

the EU? Jeremy Corbyn said note this morning. I think it will be

:36:36.:36:39.

self-regulating to an extent because people are coming because the other

:36:40.:36:42.

fifth richest country in the world and there are jobs here. So we don't

:36:43.:36:48.

need a limit? To have an arbitrary limit would be ineffective and we

:36:49.:36:51.

have seen that from looking at your own promise to try to do by talking

:36:52.:36:54.

about bringing it down to tens of thousands. There is no way he can do

:36:55.:36:58.

that because there is more migration coming from outside the EU that

:36:59.:37:02.

inside anyway. Take Romania and Bulgaria, the average wage around ?3

:37:03.:37:07.

an hour, we have a minimum rate of ?7.20 an hour, eight strong pull

:37:08.:37:10.

factor which puts strains on the and housing. If it up price worth

:37:11.:37:17.

paying for staying in? There are so many assumptions in your question.

:37:18.:37:20.

Most of the pressure on our housing and education and health system is

:37:21.:37:23.

coming from a lack of investment and cuts on the government, not from

:37:24.:37:27.

people coming in. In the NHS you are far more likely to be treated by

:37:28.:37:30.

someone who has come from another European country. There are some

:37:31.:37:34.

real challenges in there. I'm not saying that regression doesn't bring

:37:35.:37:39.

pressures but we should be recognising there is a net economic

:37:40.:37:43.

benefit that migrants bring with them so let's invest that properly

:37:44.:37:46.

in the services in the area. The latest report by the EU's

:37:47.:37:51.

anti-corruption body shows fraudulent abuse of EU funds at

:37:52.:37:55.

record levels, they have been criticised for not even implementing

:37:56.:38:00.

the first obligation under the UN's Convention against corruption. Under

:38:01.:38:04.

our aid policy, we would not give a penny of taxpayers money to a poor

:38:05.:38:07.

African country that would not comply with UN standards but we give

:38:08.:38:12.

billions to the EU. Are you comfortable with that? I'm not

:38:13.:38:15.

comfortable with corruption or fraud but I don't think the EU has a

:38:16.:38:19.

monopoly on that and many times the accounts have not been able to be

:38:20.:38:22.

signed up because individual nation states have not done their job

:38:23.:38:25.

properly, it is government at fault, not the EU. In your election

:38:26.:38:32.

manifesto you referred to the EU's unsustainable economic 's. Do you

:38:33.:38:37.

still hold that view? I think it is unsustainable whether at EU level or

:38:38.:38:41.

British level and the way to do that do that is to fight it in Britain

:38:42.:38:46.

and in the EU. Thank you to both of you.

:38:47.:38:48.

It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:38:49.:38:50.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:38:51.:38:53.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:38:54.:39:00.

With just days to go, campaigning has resumed

:39:01.:39:07.

But after the murder of MP Jo Cox, what sort

:39:08.:39:10.

I'll be speaking to the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon

:39:11.:39:14.

for Remain And the Tory MSP Graham Simpson for Leave.

:39:15.:39:17.

And could the "shy Remainers" have as much impact in this referendum

:39:18.:39:20.

as the "silent majority" did in 2014?

:39:21.:39:31.

Campaigning ahead of the EU referendum resumed today

:39:32.:39:33.

after being suspended on Thursday, following the murder of Jo Cox.

:39:34.:39:37.

It's an event which has united political rivals to pay tribute

:39:38.:39:39.

to someone they saw as a talented MP and mother with a bright future.

:39:40.:39:43.

Her death has drawn attention to the easy access voters here enjoy

:39:44.:39:46.

to their elected representatives and raised questions

:39:47.:39:49.

about the nature of the referendum campaign itself.

:39:50.:39:51.

This weekend was supposed to be the start of the final push for votes

:39:52.:40:07.

ahead of Thursday's EU referendum. Instead, flags at State buildings in

:40:08.:40:10.

ahead of Thursday's EU referendum. Scotland flew at half-mast after the

:40:11.:40:16.

death of Jo Cox. The 41-year-old mother was killed outside her

:40:17.:40:22.

Birstall surgery constituency. The man Thomas Moore has been charged

:40:23.:40:27.

with her murder. He gave his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for

:40:28.:40:29.

Britain" appearing in court yesterday. Earlier this week the

:40:30.:40:33.

response to the killing of Jo Cox by many MPs including Newborough's Ian

:40:34.:40:37.

Murray was to carry on with their own constituency surgeries as

:40:38.:40:40.

normal, albeit with increased security. I think most MPs are

:40:41.:40:45.

trying to have business as usual because that is what the

:40:46.:40:49.

parliamentary process does and we should be incredibly... We should

:40:50.:40:54.

cherish our democracy and be that they operate in this country, we

:40:55.:40:57.

have an open door policy to any elected member and it is something

:40:58.:41:01.

that other countries do not do. It is a great link between the people

:41:02.:41:08.

who elect us and the people that we are incredibly privileged to try and

:41:09.:41:10.

represent in the best way possible. The death of Jo Cox happens during a

:41:11.:41:13.

referendum campaign which has brought controversial issues like

:41:14.:41:16.

immigration to the forefront brought controversial issues like

:41:17.:41:19.

public debate. That said, this has been viewed by many as first and

:41:20.:41:26.

foremost simply a tragic incident. This obviously does not happen

:41:27.:41:31.

often, but that it happened to a women, a very bright and well

:41:32.:41:37.

motivated caring young women, who is a mother of two young children, when

:41:38.:41:43.

you strip everything else beat you left with that. So how might expect

:41:44.:41:48.

the referendum? I am not sure it will have a great deal of effect.

:41:49.:41:52.

Most of the arguments have been made a few days ahead of the referendum.

:41:53.:41:57.

Both for and against. I think it will probably cause those at the

:41:58.:42:01.

forefront of the campaign to perhaps be a little bit more careful with

:42:02.:42:05.

their words. But I do not hold that the view that this murder had

:42:06.:42:15.

anything to do was directly to do but some of the more unpleasant

:42:16.:42:22.

aspects of the campaign. One thing that we have seen following the

:42:23.:42:26.

death of Jo Cox is political opponents united in grief, pain

:42:27.:42:31.

tribute to someone who is hugely respected beyond party boundaries.

:42:32.:42:35.

That is a thought that will surely stay in their minds as official

:42:36.:42:38.

campaigning ahead of the referendum itself begins once again.

:42:39.:42:44.

In a moment I'll be speaking to the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon,

:42:45.:42:48.

who wants the UK to remain in Europe.

:42:49.:42:50.

But first, shortly before we came on air, I spoke

:42:51.:42:52.

to the Conservative MSP Graham Simpson,

:42:53.:42:54.

I speak as someone whose sister was murdered nearly 21 years ago. She

:42:55.:43:05.

was 30 with two young children. It brought it all back to me. So I know

:43:06.:43:12.

what the family is going through and I think it was right and it felt

:43:13.:43:20.

right to suspend the campaign. I hope in answer to your question that

:43:21.:43:26.

there is a change of pawn. It has been to personal and to better. Not

:43:27.:43:30.

down south. down south.

:43:31.:43:36.

-- tone. I want to reduce something that the former Prime Minister

:43:37.:43:38.

Gordon Brown wrote. He said that the tragedy of the discourse of the

:43:39.:43:42.

referendum to easily descended from a vote over Britain's future in

:43:43.:43:47.

Europe into adult immigrants and those who support immigrants. Unless

:43:48.:43:52.

we strive for a culture of respect, we have too little to challenge

:43:53.:43:55.

prejudice and we will learn nothing from what happened to Jo Cox. Do you

:43:56.:44:00.

accept that the debate on immigration has become a bit

:44:01.:44:07.

overblown? Yes, I do. It is certainly not

:44:08.:44:11.

something I am thinking of but perhaps that is because I am in

:44:12.:44:15.

Scotland. It is not such a big issue here. Parts of England, we can see

:44:16.:44:20.

for ourselves, it is clearly more of an issue there, but some of the

:44:21.:44:24.

rhetoric has been overblown. He is correct on that. The problem is that

:44:25.:44:30.

while it might not be such a big issue here you personally may not

:44:31.:44:33.

have been campaigning particular on this, the reality is that if there

:44:34.:44:38.

is a Brexit vote, one of the main drivers of that will be people's

:44:39.:44:43.

concerns about immigration. One of the results of Brexit would be that

:44:44.:44:48.

you could control who comes in and who does not. That is certainly true

:44:49.:44:54.

and that would be no bad thing. Let us come onto the details of that

:44:55.:44:59.

shortly. But I am curious as to what you think, should your side when, do

:45:00.:45:03.

you think that David Cameron can continue? I would hope so. I do not

:45:04.:45:09.

see why not. He is the Prime Minister who has given us this

:45:10.:45:13.

referendum. He has given the country a choice. So although he favours

:45:14.:45:21.

remaining, he is still a Democrat and he will have to accept them as

:45:22.:45:25.

odd, but it -- which ever way it goes. So if the vote is to leave, he

:45:26.:45:32.

was -- he will have to start negotiations.

:45:33.:45:38.

But he would be going into negotiations with our European

:45:39.:45:41.

partners with no credibility having just lost a referendum. He would

:45:42.:45:46.

have lost by the divas that referendum, he gave us the choice,

:45:47.:45:49.

so presumably, he will accept the result. Even if it does not go the

:45:50.:45:54.

way that he wants, I see no reason why he should stand down. Can you

:45:55.:45:58.

see any reason why supporters of independence for Scotland should

:45:59.:46:05.

vote for Brexit? That is an interesting question. It is a good

:46:06.:46:13.

question. If we look at the SNP, their parliamentarians are not in

:46:14.:46:19.

tune with their voters. It is simply not credible that every single SNP

:46:20.:46:23.

parliamentarian thinks the same way on this issue. If you are a

:46:24.:46:30.

nationalist, which clearly I am not, it seems to me it is the natural

:46:31.:46:36.

thing to want to leave the European Union and many nationalist borders

:46:37.:46:42.

don't. Give me the ten second argument as to if I am a nationalist

:46:43.:46:49.

why I should vote for Brexit. If you are a nationalist, simply, you will

:46:50.:46:51.

have more control over your own are a nationalist, simply, you will

:46:52.:46:54.

country, you want that. If we do vote to leave, they would

:46:55.:47:00.

probably be... There is certainly a clear majority in parliament,

:47:01.:47:05.

possibly the country, to join the economic area in Europe and preserve

:47:06.:47:09.

Britain's access to the single market. In your view, is that a good

:47:10.:47:15.

option? Yes, I do not know if you can think

:47:16.:47:21.

back to 1975, I did not get the vote, you probably did not either,

:47:22.:47:26.

but the vote was... I am much older than you think I am! Continue...

:47:27.:47:34.

OK, good! The vote was to remain in what was the common market. If that

:47:35.:47:42.

was the vote today, I would say yes to that. So if the deal is, we are

:47:43.:47:48.

in a free trade area, that is what I would go for.

:47:49.:47:51.

The problem is if we were to stay in the single market, as you know, they

:47:52.:47:53.

would have to accept free movement of labour, so you are running a

:47:54.:48:00.

Brexit campaign that is largely scum are certainly in England, based upon

:48:01.:48:04.

emigration, and if we join the economic area, matters to do with

:48:05.:48:07.

immigration would be pretty much exactly the same.

:48:08.:48:15.

I think, Gordon, everything is up for grabs. The country votes to

:48:16.:48:21.

leave, there are whole series of negotiations that must take place.

:48:22.:48:26.

Seems to me any Prime Minister, anyone doing the negotiating can

:48:27.:48:32.

almost pick and choose. They cannot, they have to negotiate

:48:33.:48:35.

with the European Union. Norway and the other countries in the EU have

:48:36.:48:42.

to accept free movement of labour. Switzerland, not a member of the...

:48:43.:48:46.

Free movement of labour is one of the powers of the European Union, it

:48:47.:48:50.

could not allow Britain access to the single market and not have free

:48:51.:48:57.

movement of labour unless it was challenging the whole nature of the

:48:58.:49:00.

EU and there is no reason to believe they would do that.

:49:01.:49:04.

So, challenge it. Fine, Britain could do that but there is no reason

:49:05.:49:07.

to believe that the EU would not tell them to get lost.

:49:08.:49:12.

The EU would not turn around to Britain and tell them that they did

:49:13.:49:16.

not want to have a trade deal with us.

:49:17.:49:19.

No, they will have a trade deal, but they will tell you that if you think

:49:20.:49:21.

for one second that destroy the they will tell you that if you think

:49:22.:49:24.

power of the European Union just so they can trade with Britain, you

:49:25.:49:27.

have another thing coming. But Britain would not be in the

:49:28.:49:30.

European Union. But my point is that if you want

:49:31.:49:34.

access to the single market you have to have free movement of labour and

:49:35.:49:36.

you have to have that degree but to have free movement of labour and

:49:37.:49:39.

other European countries, it is not just up to us as Britain.

:49:40.:49:46.

If we do vote to leave, then it is a whole new ball game, frankly.

:49:47.:49:52.

Why do you think every serious international European organisation

:49:53.:49:58.

thinks that not just Brexit is a bad idea but would have seriously

:49:59.:50:00.

damaging consequences for the British economy, the latest being

:50:01.:50:05.

the International Monetary Fund which reduced a report yesterday

:50:06.:50:10.

forecasting a short-term recession. Why is there not a single respected

:50:11.:50:13.

international organisation telling us that Brexit would be good for the

:50:14.:50:20.

British economy? I have listened to the experts, I have listened to

:50:21.:50:23.

these doomsday scenarios and none of them actually tell us how this would

:50:24.:50:28.

come about. Yes, they do. Read the Treasury's report.

:50:29.:50:33.

Unfortunately I have not had time to do that. Try the OECD one of the

:50:34.:50:40.

Economist intelligence unit one or the International Monetary Fund.

:50:41.:50:43.

They all explain precisely why they believe these effects will happen.

:50:44.:50:48.

To me, if we leave, we have great opportunities. We would get the

:50:49.:50:52.

money back that we currently put in, that is disputed...

:50:53.:50:57.

I except that you genuinely believe that, but the trouble is, we are now

:50:58.:51:04.

in a world of faith -based politics, where every major economic

:51:05.:51:08.

organisation is telling you that the effects will be precisely the

:51:09.:51:12.

opposite of what you are telling me and you cannot point to a single

:51:13.:51:16.

organisation that backs your case, why should anyone take what you say

:51:17.:51:19.

seriously? People, when they come to vote, they

:51:20.:51:25.

really need to break it down, they need to look at what it is they are

:51:26.:51:30.

voting for, what this organisation is that they are voting to stay into

:51:31.:51:36.

or leave from. What the deal is. Part of that deal is that we get an

:51:37.:51:42.

awful lot of money to the EU, a political organisation. -- give.

:51:43.:51:49.

That is ?10 billion each year. We would get that back and be able to

:51:50.:51:55.

spend that how we chose to spend it. And do the economy is the fifth

:51:56.:51:59.

largest in the world, I cannot see why we would crash upon leaving a

:52:00.:52:05.

political project. Graham Simpson, we will have to

:52:06.:52:08.

leave it there. Thank you. OK.

:52:09.:52:11.

Joining me now is the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

:52:12.:52:16.

Before we get into the debate about Europe, in light of what happened

:52:17.:52:23.

last week, are you doing or planning to do anything to review the

:52:24.:52:27.

security of members of the Scottish Parliament? The police have been

:52:28.:52:32.

communicating to the Scottish Parliament offer advice and

:52:33.:52:33.

communicating to the Scottish reassurance about the security of

:52:34.:52:38.

members of the Scottish Parliament and I think that is appropriate. The

:52:39.:52:43.

events in the last couple of days have been tragic and sad beyond

:52:44.:52:51.

belief. From what I have read and know about Jo Cox, I think she would

:52:52.:52:56.

agree that we should not respond in a way that closes politicians away

:52:57.:53:01.

from the public. We are public servants. It is important to

:53:02.:53:05.

politicians, the ability to be accessible to constituents. You are

:53:06.:53:11.

not suggesting that members of the Scottish Parliament do anything

:53:12.:53:16.

different? We are human beings and politicians as human beings will

:53:17.:53:22.

feel more vulnerable now than they did it a few days ago and that is to

:53:23.:53:28.

be expected. All politicians will want to think about appropriate

:53:29.:53:31.

precautions and many will want to discuss with the police what those

:53:32.:53:38.

may be, but I have not spoken to any politicians who want to do surgery

:53:39.:53:41.

is with police presence outside or do anything that builds barriers

:53:42.:53:48.

between us, as elected representatives, and the people we

:53:49.:53:53.

were elected to serve. According to a newspaper today the Scottish

:53:54.:53:57.

Government is making contingency plans to maintain Scotland's

:53:58.:54:00.

membership of the European Union if there was a vote to leave. Is that

:54:01.:54:08.

true? I said on Thursday I have asked the Scottish Government

:54:09.:54:11.

officials to look at all eventualities. It would be strange

:54:12.:54:17.

if I was not doing that. There is an idea that Scotland could remain a

:54:18.:54:22.

member of the European Union. I hope every part of the UK votes to stay

:54:23.:54:28.

in the European Union. If Scotland votes to remain there and we face

:54:29.:54:33.

the prospect of being taken out against a will. I've said this

:54:34.:54:37.

before, we need to look at all the options to protect Scotland's

:54:38.:54:42.

interests and to give effect to what the Scottish people vote for. I

:54:43.:54:48.

understand the point about having another independence referendum, but

:54:49.:54:50.

I was wondering if any of the contingency plans may contain other

:54:51.:54:56.

things? If we are in this scenario, and I hope we are not, Scotland's

:54:57.:55:02.

voice should be hard very directly in any discussions about what

:55:03.:55:05.

happens next. If we find ourselves in this scenario, I will come back

:55:06.:55:12.

next Sunday and go into this in as much detail as you want. For the

:55:13.:55:19.

remaining days of the campaign I am entitled to seek to persuade people

:55:20.:55:25.

in Scotland, and across the UK, to vote to stay in the EU. If there is

:55:26.:55:31.

an exit from the European Union there should be a role for the

:55:32.:55:35.

Scottish Government in the negotiations with the European

:55:36.:55:43.

Union? Of course. Much of what would arise with impact directly on

:55:44.:55:50.

devolved responsibilities. If we are in a scenario, and it is an ethnic,

:55:51.:55:57.

if Scotland votes to remain and the rest of the UK votes to leave, our

:55:58.:56:02.

interest me to be protected. I need to look at all options to protect

:56:03.:56:06.

Scotland's interests and to make sure that the democratic will of the

:56:07.:56:11.

people are tired. What if the British Government said it has

:56:12.:56:15.

nothing to do with you? That would be unacceptable. If we are in this

:56:16.:56:20.

situation I'm sure we will be having this discussion next weekend and for

:56:21.:56:25.

some time. I hope we are not in this situation. I hope people in Scotland

:56:26.:56:32.

and across the UK vote to remain for a variety of reasons. We are part of

:56:33.:56:40.

the world's digger single market. -- the world's biggest single market.

:56:41.:56:45.

But there is a more fundamental aspect to this about the kind of

:56:46.:56:51.

world that we want to live in. You know that I want Scotland to be an

:56:52.:56:55.

independent country in the future. We are open and outward looking. The

:56:56.:57:02.

message that your party is sending out on this referendum I find

:57:03.:57:09.

confusing. I expect I am not alone. On one hand you are saying that you

:57:10.:57:15.

want all your supporters to vote to stay in the EU, but on the other

:57:16.:57:19.

hand your holding out the prospect that if Scotland votes to remain and

:57:20.:57:23.

the UK votes to leave there could be another independence referendum. If

:57:24.:57:28.

I am watching this and I was a passionate Yes campaign and the main

:57:29.:57:31.

thing that I want is another European referendum, I would be

:57:32.:57:37.

torn. Should I vote to remain because it is important or should I

:57:38.:57:42.

think that Scotland is going to remain anyway so I will vote to

:57:43.:57:45.

leave because I want the rest of Britain to vote to leave. If you are

:57:46.:57:53.

a passionate Yes campaign, and that means you are very intelligent, you

:57:54.:57:57.

will see the logic a yield what you are saying. You cannot assume that

:57:58.:58:04.

Scotland will vote to remain. If you are basing your decision on how to

:58:05.:58:07.

vote on Thursday on what it means for independence, let me be clear

:58:08.:58:14.

that my vote is not based on that, but if you are the logic of that

:58:15.:58:17.

position is that if Scotland votes to leave along with the rest of the

:58:18.:58:22.

UK the prevalence for a second independence referendum does not

:58:23.:58:27.

arrive. If we vote to leave our immediate future is in the UK and at

:58:28.:58:33.

the mercy of a Government led by Boris Johnson and maybe Nigel

:58:34.:58:39.

Farage. You would like Scotland to vote to remain and you would like

:58:40.:58:45.

the UK to vote to remain. You are twisting my words. I want all of the

:58:46.:58:51.

UK to vote to remain. Let me make this clear, no one watching vessels

:58:52.:58:57.

under any about my view of Scotland being an independent country. I do

:58:58.:59:04.

not want anyone else to think it will come about because of the vote

:59:05.:59:06.

to leave the EU. I want the UK to will come about because of the vote

:59:07.:59:13.

vote to remain. I am just pointing out, and I have no control over

:59:14.:59:18.

this, if the rest of the UK votes to leave in Scotland votes to remain

:59:19.:59:20.

one of the consequences of that would be that we would have the

:59:21.:59:24.

right to look at the second independence referendum. It is

:59:25.:59:30.

predicated on Scotland voting to remain. If Scotland votes to leave

:59:31.:59:37.

this is a moot point. Most people understand that. I am sorry if you

:59:38.:59:43.

think I am twisting your words. One of my colleagues told me that she

:59:44.:59:49.

spent yesterday with two friends who are passionate about independence

:59:50.:59:52.

and they are going to vote to leave for the reasons I outlined. This is

:59:53.:59:56.

a good opportunity for me to speak to these people who may think that

:59:57.:00:00.

is a logical position to take and to tell them that it is not. If

:00:01.:00:04.

is a logical position to take and to Scotland votes to leave then this

:00:05.:00:07.

premise for independence does not arise. If you are basing your

:00:08.:00:14.

decision, and I am not, but if you're basing your decision on what

:00:15.:00:16.

you think is best for Scottish independence then do not vote to

:00:17.:00:23.

leave, but to remain. But even in that scenario, if I was a passionate

:00:24.:00:28.

independence campaigner, you say that if Britain votes to leave the

:00:29.:00:29.

independence campaigner, you say EU we could be run by a right wing

:00:30.:00:34.

Tory Government. Nothing is more likely to increase support for

:00:35.:00:39.

independence in Scotland to the 60% before you have another referendum.

:00:40.:00:45.

If I am an independent reporter, if I go leave there is a chance I can

:00:46.:00:47.

get another chance at independence. get another chance at independence.

:00:48.:00:55.

-- independence supporter. That is not true. We continue to build the

:00:56.:00:58.

case for independence on its own merits. If there is a leave vote

:00:59.:01:04.

across the UK, one of my concerns is that we end up in a direction of

:01:05.:01:12.

political travel towards the right. Boris Johnson Nigel Farage even more

:01:13.:01:18.

right wing than David Cameron. Rather than saying we do not want to

:01:19.:01:25.

be a part of the right dressed, there is no logical case if you are

:01:26.:01:34.

a supporter of independence and have an open and inclusive view of how

:01:35.:01:38.

the world operates today there is no reason to vote to leave. Why is Jim

:01:39.:01:45.

Sillars wrong? He pointed out that the countries in Europe did not do

:01:46.:01:51.

much to help during the independence referendum. I have huge respect for

:01:52.:01:59.

Jim Sillars. The first campaign I took part in was in 1988 and he won

:02:00.:02:05.

then. He was the architect of the SNP's independence in Europe

:02:06.:02:10.

physician. I think he is wrong, though. I am in passionate

:02:11.:02:19.

politician. Countries increasingly have to work together to tackle

:02:20.:02:25.

issues that no country can do by itself and I would want an

:02:26.:02:28.

independent Scotland to stay in the European Union. Jim Sillars says

:02:29.:02:35.

that some of the rhetoric about a right-wing Tory Government are

:02:36.:02:39.

scaremongering. Does he have a point? What you have said about a

:02:40.:02:45.

right-wing Tory Government is one possible scenario. The other is that

:02:46.:02:52.

Labour will come to power. I accept that none of us know for certain

:02:53.:02:56.

what is going to happen in the future, but I think we all make our

:02:57.:03:03.

judgments. I am not the only one saying if there is a vote to leave

:03:04.:03:07.

across the UK there is a likelihood that David Cameron will not survive

:03:08.:03:12.

as Prime Minister and there is a likelihood that someone like Boris

:03:13.:03:15.

Johnson will have to replace him. I do not think that is a huge leap of

:03:16.:03:21.

imagination. I do not want to see Scotland be part of the Government

:03:22.:03:24.

that contains Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Thank you. You invited

:03:25.:03:31.

yourself back next week. I would be delighted to come back.

:03:32.:03:33.

They used to say there were three kinds of lies:

:03:34.:03:35.

But after last year's general election, some say they could have

:03:36.:03:39.

That's because pollsters spectacularly failed to get

:03:40.:03:42.

even close to predicting the actual result.

:03:43.:03:44.

Since then, they claim to have adjusted and tweaked

:03:45.:03:46.

their methodology so that similar errors shouldn't happen again.

:03:47.:03:48.

We won't know whether it's worked until the results

:03:49.:03:50.

are in, but to find out what they are predicting,

:03:51.:03:53.

I'm joined now by MORI Scotland's Mark Diffley.

:03:54.:04:01.

It is a bit unclear. John Curtice was making the point earlier with

:04:02.:04:12.

Andrew Neil that because some of the polls were conducted before the

:04:13.:04:19.

murder of Jo Cox we do not know what, if any, effect that has had.

:04:20.:04:30.

We need to be cautious. There are some brought things to say from the

:04:31.:04:35.

polls at the weekend, those we have seen in the last 24 hours. They tend

:04:36.:04:42.

to show that they remain side across the UK have gained some ground in

:04:43.:04:48.

the last couple of days. But there is a phenomenal here in many

:04:49.:04:57.

referendums, lots of academic evidence, that the status quo option

:04:58.:05:01.

does tend to get a boost in the last couple of days. John Curtice said it

:05:02.:05:07.

could be that affect rather than the tragic events of the last few days

:05:08.:05:15.

that are influencing the polls. Do you think the murder of Jo Cox would

:05:16.:05:20.

have any effect at all? We know two things from the polls over the

:05:21.:05:24.

weekend, although nothing about the effect of that incident on it. We

:05:25.:05:33.

know that in one of the polls over the weekend those who are saying

:05:34.:05:38.

they do not know are more inclined to vote to remain banned to leave,

:05:39.:05:43.

although they have not made their minds up fully. That is what we saw

:05:44.:05:49.

before the new independence referendum. On some of the questions

:05:50.:05:55.

that lie behind the voting intention, particularly to do with

:05:56.:05:57.

that lie behind the voting the economic effects, one of the

:05:58.:06:03.

polls said that people thought they would be worse off if there was a

:06:04.:06:08.

vote to leave. Perhaps there are some signs that the economic

:06:09.:06:12.

arguments that they remain side have been repeating recently are starting

:06:13.:06:19.

to have some effect and that would be consistent not just with the

:06:20.:06:26.

independence referendum but also with other big constitutional

:06:27.:06:28.

referendums we have seen across the world. I wonder if the events of the

:06:29.:06:35.

last few days could affect the way that things go. It is perhaps not

:06:36.:06:41.

unreasonable to suggest that it would be difficult to have a debate

:06:42.:06:45.

about immigration in the next couple of days that was as intemperate as

:06:46.:06:53.

the language we have had before. The more we talk about the economy the

:06:54.:06:57.

better it is for remain and the more we talk about immigration the better

:06:58.:07:02.

for the Leave campaign. In many of the polls, including a road, we saw

:07:03.:07:10.

for the first time that immigration was the top concern in terms of what

:07:11.:07:17.

issues people were thinking about when they came to vote. It is clear

:07:18.:07:26.

that if there is a discussion about immigration that would appear to be

:07:27.:07:30.

beneficial to the Leave campaign. If the argument remains in the economy,

:07:31.:07:35.

that is where the Remain campaign have done better. Thank you for

:07:36.:07:37.

joining us. It's time to look back at the events

:07:38.:07:41.

of the past week and see what's Here with me now are

:07:42.:07:45.

the Sunday Herald's Tom Gordon and the political commentator

:07:46.:07:50.

Hamish Macdonell. In an appropriate at this stage...

:07:51.:08:06.

Adonia still shocked at what happened last week but it is

:08:07.:08:10.

appropriate to start asking, did you think it is going to have any effect

:08:11.:08:15.

on what happens between now and the referendum, Hamish Macdonell? Yes, I

:08:16.:08:20.

think it will. If you look at where we were at the time that Jo Cox was

:08:21.:08:25.

murdered, the Leave campaign definitely had some momentum, they

:08:26.:08:29.

were starting to build up a head of steam, there was panic in the Remain

:08:30.:08:34.

campaign and everything has stopped. Too tedious, has happened. There is

:08:35.:08:39.

the argument that you have from John Curtice and Mark Diffley earlier,

:08:40.:08:43.

that cause of the polling was done before the murder of Jo Cox, it

:08:44.:08:49.

could just be what they expected anyway, which was a reversal of the

:08:50.:08:54.

status quo. In electoral politics like this,

:08:55.:08:56.

momentum is everything, if you can get it and keep it going, it builds

:08:57.:09:00.

and what that breed Casburn is broken the momentum that they Leave

:09:01.:09:04.

campaign had and thrown the Leave campaign had Andrew Hill thing back

:09:05.:09:07.

towards the starting point now. The other one that will suffer more as a

:09:08.:09:11.

result of this and I also think that there is a sense of both sides being

:09:12.:09:16.

on the defensive little and having to pawn down directory and I think

:09:17.:09:20.

the rhetoric that we saw coming out of the Leave campaign up until that

:09:21.:09:24.

point was more extreme and so the game will be on the defensive. --

:09:25.:09:30.

tone. What you make of that, Tom?

:09:31.:09:35.

I think it has rocked the leave side of some of the momentum but it has

:09:36.:09:37.

I think it has rocked the leave side stopped the Remain side putting

:09:38.:09:40.

their foot on the gas and getting the momentum. The polls can

:09:41.:09:45.

boomerang in these type of referendums. There is a shift

:09:46.:09:51.

shortly before the polling day from the status go to the change option

:09:52.:09:55.

and then it tends to revert back to the status quo, we saw that in the

:09:56.:09:58.

independence referendum and I think we are seeing that again. It can

:09:59.:10:02.

also change the temple and the tone of this debate but I do not think it

:10:03.:10:10.

will have a significant effect on the outcome. I think if any Remain

:10:11.:10:12.

of additional strike to the outcome. I think if any Remain

:10:13.:10:14.

Leave voters might feel insulted that they have been linked to this

:10:15.:10:16.

management in Yorkshire and take offence and make damn sure that the

:10:17.:10:24.

vote for Leave. Hamish, George Osborne was on

:10:25.:10:27.

earlier but I did not hear him repeat his threat of the cuts.

:10:28.:10:37.

There is no sign that it will be turned down massively but there will

:10:38.:10:40.

be a different feel to the campaign, I believe. There is a feeling

:10:41.:10:43.

throughout the whole country that things had got just a little bit too

:10:44.:10:48.

heated and there was an awful lot more heat than light coming out. So

:10:49.:10:51.

I think the politicians will have to react to that public mood and just

:10:52.:10:56.

be a little bit more restrained in these last few days.

:10:57.:11:00.

Tom Gordon, you heard what Nicola Sturgeon said, if you were a

:11:01.:11:06.

passionate supporter and keep the inner -- and campaigner for

:11:07.:11:09.

independence for Scotland, we do know what to do?

:11:10.:11:13.

It is not as clear as has been made out. The SNP's case is that Scotland

:11:14.:11:18.

is sufficiently different to the rest of the UK to justify a new

:11:19.:11:22.

political settlement and it depends upon what Nicola Sturgeon wants. She

:11:23.:11:26.

wants a result that would exaggerate and another thing that difference

:11:27.:11:30.

but I think she wants to stay in the EU, she was any LEDs of the

:11:31.:11:33.

evolution and youth spokesperson for the SNP. She once a Remain fought

:11:34.:11:39.

overall but should there be a Brexit fought in the rest of the UK, the

:11:40.:11:45.

best outcome for heart is a thumping great Remain vote in the rest of

:11:46.:11:48.

Scotland because that underlined the difference and the mismatch between

:11:49.:11:51.

Scotland and the rest of the UK. So if you want independence, if both

:11:52.:11:59.

sides were to Vote Leave, the only concrete example they gave for a

:12:00.:12:02.

trigger for an independence referendum would be a big Remain

:12:03.:12:10.

vote for Scotland. If you are a passionate nationalist

:12:11.:12:14.

would you be feeling similar? And Astley Castle we have seen a

:12:15.:12:20.

definite change in tone from the First Minister. Before she had said

:12:21.:12:25.

if there was any Leave thought that would be the trigger for a second

:12:26.:12:28.

independence referendum. Now she has had to appeal directly to SNP voters

:12:29.:12:34.

and said not to Vote Leave. That can only be because it has come to our

:12:35.:12:35.

notice that there are people, even only be because it has come to our

:12:36.:12:40.

have on the fringes of the pro-independence movement are

:12:41.:12:42.

prepared to do that, then she does not want that. There has been a

:12:43.:12:55.

definite change in tone. She has had to address that but Tom is correct,

:12:56.:12:59.

what she wants is a massive Remain vote for Scotland and if there is a

:13:00.:13:03.

Leave vote in the rest of the UK, there is a big difference that could

:13:04.:13:04.

change things. What do you both think that either

:13:05.:13:07.

side has to do to gain victory? It appears to be up in the air.

:13:08.:13:10.

At this point it is about the repetition of message. It will all

:13:11.:13:12.

be about the economy from the Remain side but the Leave sidewalk on down

:13:13.:13:20.

the immigration debate. -- but the Leave will tone the immigration

:13:21.:13:26.

debate. The 10% of the dog was in the middle

:13:27.:13:30.

have a big say in this and the Remain calm have to go on the

:13:31.:13:34.

security of the status quo. If they do that, they will be hoping that as

:13:35.:13:37.

security of the status quo. If they in most referendums in the last two

:13:38.:13:38.

days, people come back in most referendums in the last two

:13:39.:13:43.

option. There will be a fight over that middle ground and that is what

:13:44.:13:46.

Remain will do, I believe. Thank you both very much indeed.

:13:47.:13:47.

I'll be back at the same time next week.

:13:48.:13:52.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest on the EU referendum, including interviews with remain campaigners Paddy Ashdown and Caroline Lucas and leave campaigners John Mann and Dominic Raab.


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