23/10/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


23/10/2016

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer are joined by former Ukip deputy leader Paul Nuttall, international development minister Rory Stewart and shadow defence secretary Nia Griffith.


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Transcript


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There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next

:00:35.:00:40.

leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,

:00:41.:00:42.

This man might have something to say about that.

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Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.

:00:50.:00:52.

So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?

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The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane

:00:56.:01:00.

on the country's second city which has been in the hands of

:01:01.:01:03.

But what will be the fallout from this key clash?

:01:04.:01:11.

A former SNP leader warns the party against stumbling into

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And are the Scottish Greens about to show their true colours?

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And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

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panel in the business: Toby Young, Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn -

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The last leader was in the job a mere 18 days before she decided

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The favourite to succeed her then quit the party after a now infamous

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Ukip's biggest donor says the party is at "breaking point".

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This morning, the former Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans,

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announced that she would be running for the leadership.

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I've thought long and hard about this leadership bid,

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and one of the reasons I've perhaps delayed announcing it is

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because I wanted to be absolutely sure that I had the support

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And I can confirm that I have more than enough signatures

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on the nomination form already to be able to go forward.

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Let's not forget that 3,000 people signed a petition in support of me

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I know head office was besieged with letters in support.

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I would not be doing this if I didn't have the backing

:02:30.:02:33.

of our members, because our members are the most important

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Well, Paul Nuttall was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years

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and plenty of people saw him as a leader-in-waiting.

:02:45.:02:47.

Let's ask the man himself - Paul Nuttall joins me now.

:02:48.:02:56.

Yes. I've made the decision that I'm going to put my name forward to be

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the next leader of Ukip. I have huge support across the country, not only

:03:04.:03:07.

amongst people at the top of the party in Westminster and with the

:03:08.:03:12.

MEPs, but also the grassroots. I want to be the unity candidate. Ukip

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needs to come together. I'm not going to gild the lily. Ukip is

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looking over a political cliff at the moment. It will either step four

:03:22.:03:33.

step back, and I want to tell us to step backwards. You say it faces an

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ex-distension or threat, which means it's possible it has no future at

:03:36.:03:38.

all. Students of political history know that political parties take a

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long time to get going. They can disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is

:03:44.:03:49.

facing an existential crisis. What happened over the summer has put us

:03:50.:03:53.

on a... We could be on a spiral that we can't get off. But I believe I am

:03:54.:03:58.

the man to bring the factions together, to create unity within the

:03:59.:04:02.

party, and to build on the structure and get us ready for the common

:04:03.:04:07.

challenges. Why didn't you stand last time? Because I have spent the

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last four or five years of my life travelling around the country. I

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have done more Ukip meetings than anybody else, spending a lot of time

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away from home. With Brexit, I felt that my job and Nigel's job was done

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and we could hand over to the next generation. That doesn't seem to be

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the case, and maybe it's time for someone who is an old hand. I'm very

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experienced and I know the party inside out. Maybe it's time to step

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in and bring the party together. You told the Liverpool Echo on the night

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of July that you didn't wish to take on Nigel Farage, you didn't want

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that to happen to your family and friends. What has changed? The party

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is facing an existential crisis, and I want to make sure that Ukip is on

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the pitch to keep the ball into the open net we have in politics. We

:05:05.:05:10.

have a Conservative Party who is moving toward Brexit, but we have to

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be there too. Why would you be better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne

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would be an excellent candidate. I thought the 2015 manifesto was the

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best out of all the political parties. I would be the best

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candidate because of my experience. I am not part of any faction within

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the party. Is she? I get on well with everybody, and I believe I

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could be the man to bring the party together. Do you get on with Iain

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Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is supporting one of your rivals? Yes,

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I get on well with him. He is able to choose whoever he wants to be the

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next leader of the party. After November 28, the leadership

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election, we all say, the past the past. It becomes Daisy row for the

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new leader. We forget all that has before and move on. You won the

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referendum. Mrs May is adopting some of your policies, like grammar

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schools. What is the point of Ukip these days? Twofold. We don't have

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Brexit. Mrs May said she would not invoke Article 50 until the end of

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March, and we don't know if that will happen. We need to ensure a

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strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit really does mean Brexit. We have a

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huge opportunity in working class communities where the Labour Party

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no longer represents them. I believe Ukip can become the voice of working

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people. If you were the leader, would Ukip be a bigger threat to

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Labour in the north or the Tories in the South? You save Labour in the

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north, and people often to make that mistake. There's working class

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communities right across the country is. There are working-class

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communities in Bristol just as in Newcastle. We are second in a

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number of northern seats, and southern seats as well, and I

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believe the party can move into these communities. It can only do so

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if Ukip is on the pitch, and I intend to make sure that's the case.

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I don't think we have portrayed a good image over the summer. Is that

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called British understatement? A bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to

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move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have to build a strong national Executive

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Committee. We need to ensure our branches are ready for the fight and

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concentrate on local elections. I've got the experience. I'm now throwing

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my hat into the ring, and I'm the only person who can keep Ukip in the

:07:54.:07:59.

game. What role would you give Nigel Farage, if any? I will be the

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candidate of compromise. I would see what Nigel wanted to do. Would you

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keep in the leader of the freedom and democracy group in the European

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Parliament? There would have to be compromise on both sides, and we

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would need to talk about it. I don't know what Nigel wants to do. Do you

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think his support, his association with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win

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female votes in this country? Personally, I would not have gone

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out and campaigned or said anything about Donald Trump, but I don't

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think Ukip has come out and backed Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I

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wouldn't have even spoken about the American election, because I think

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the two candidates are quite appalling. Some up for us. If you

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win, what would be the hallmark of your Ukip leadership? The first

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couple of months would be ensuring that Ukip unifies. Saying no to

:08:57.:09:02.

factions, bringing people together. Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of

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the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can move forward. If we don't unify,

:09:09.:09:13.

Ukip will not be around for much longer. Thanks for being with us

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this morning. We won't have to wait too long

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to find out who Ukip's new leader will be -

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the winner will be announced Who would be the best leader for

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Ukip? I think the difference between the field a few weeks ago and today

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is that this field is a lot stronger. Whether it's Paul or

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Suzanne, I think... It is hard to say, with Aaron Banks and apparently

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Nigel Farage hacking another candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip

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to be a strong force in British politics. I think the fact there is

:09:57.:10:03.

a stronger field now is good news for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst

:10:04.:10:10.

nightmare in the north of England? It is. I think the personality

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difference and presentational difference is interesting. Suzanne

:10:18.:10:21.

Evans is going for the Conservative county vote. There's a lot to be

:10:22.:10:25.

taken there by Ukip. He would probably be more appealing to the

:10:26.:10:32.

Labour vote. It is interesting. At the moment, pollsters say that the

:10:33.:10:39.

Ukip vote splits pretty easily between Labour and Tory. But things

:10:40.:10:50.

always collapse. When they have made inroads into Tower Hamlets and

:10:51.:10:54.

Barking, they collapse, because they fight amongst each other so much.

:10:55.:11:02.

But not always with fists! Does Ukip have a future? And who would best

:11:03.:11:10.

secure that future? It does for at least two years, until we Brexit. We

:11:11.:11:14.

have to believe that that will happen. That was an impressive pitch

:11:15.:11:21.

there from Paul, certainly as the unity candidate, after the car crash

:11:22.:11:25.

we have seen on TV screens this morning. But it doesn't go beyond

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May 20 19. What then? There is no point being called the United

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Kingdom Independence party any longer. What will happen after May

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2019? If you want to hoover up votes of the back of Brexit, you need to

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start looking further ahead than two years. The person who wins that

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leadership contest is the person who will sum that up the best. We shall

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see. In June 2014, the group which calls

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itself the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant captured Iraq's

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second city, Mosul. Later that month the group announced

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it was establishing a 'caliphate', or an Islamic state,

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on the territories it This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided

:12:03.:12:04.

by Iranian-backed Shia fighters, Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air

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support, began the assault Then they spot a truck bomb

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from so-called Islamic State. They destroy it before

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it destroys them. These are the first steps

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in the battle for Mosul, the Northern Iraqi city IS has

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made its stronghold since 2014. Controlling the city of around

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2 million people means that they established governance,

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they establish a territorial base. This is what has obsessed everyone,

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because with a territorial base you are capable of doing more

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than if you are simply an insurgency movement in the fabric

:13:02.:13:06.

of another society. It's being billed as the biggest

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military operation in Iraq since the war in 2003, the biggest

:13:11.:13:14.

moment in the international effort Here is how the various forces

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are approaching the city. Heading to Mosul from the south,

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the elite troops of the Iraqi army. Known as the Golden division,

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trained and accompanied From the North, a force made up

:13:29.:13:30.

of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga, Also from the South,

:13:31.:13:37.

a militia made up of Shia fighters who have been accused

:13:38.:13:42.

of human rights abuses. British planes have bombed outlying

:13:43.:13:45.

villages, reportedly guided in by British personnel

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on the ground. To the North West, a corridor

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has been left for some of the 3000 plus IS fighters,

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in theory an escape route which could limit the bloodshed

:13:59.:14:01.

when fighting starts in the city. We've had 4-5 days of battle

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and it's taking place in the outlying villages

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and there have been some successes and some failures,

:14:08.:14:09.

but the momentum is building. And the real question will be

:14:10.:14:12.

when the attackers get towards the city itself,

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how strong are the defences? It will crack but it might crack

:14:16.:14:19.

within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks. IS has fought back,

:14:20.:14:26.

on Friday they attack sites in the city of Kirkuk,

:14:27.:14:30.

including a power station. The United Nations believes hundreds

:14:31.:14:33.

of thousands of families have been rounded up

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as potential human shields. The battle could be bloody,

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but what about when it's over? The Shia militias, the Iraqi army,

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the Peshmerga guerrillas, some of the Turkish elements,

:14:44.:14:45.

they all want a share of the action. They are in Mosul, not

:14:46.:14:48.

for altruistic reasons. They are there because they want

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to be part of whatever happens next. The biggest issue is how the Sunni

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majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia militias which have

:14:56.:15:00.

helped to liberate them. ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis

:15:01.:15:04.

Humphrey went to Mosul If it all seems like something

:15:05.:15:06.

from the archive, when the Middle East went up in flames

:15:07.:15:10.

and was then carved up, it is because that is what is

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happening in Iraq right now. National identity has been cut

:15:14.:15:16.

across by other identities such And that means that putting together

:15:17.:15:21.

a so-called nation state again Almost certainly there will be

:15:22.:15:31.

a new form of Kurdish state, almost certainly in northern Iraq

:15:32.:15:37.

at the end of this crisis, and what is happening in Mosul

:15:38.:15:40.

is a microcosm of what is happening elsewhere across the Levant

:15:41.:15:43.

which is that it is melting down. Big questions, questions that

:15:44.:15:47.

come after the battle. The coalition forces are advancing

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but this is just the beginning. I'm joined now by the International

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Development Minister Rory Stewart. In a former life he was

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the coalition Deputy-Governor of two provinces in Southern Iraq following

:16:03.:16:05.

the Iraq intervention of 2003. Is there any doubt that at

:16:06.:16:20.

stage Mosul will fall to the forces of Iraq and its allies? The first

:16:21.:16:30.

thing is that war is very uncertain and there are cliches about it being

:16:31.:16:33.

the graveyard of predictions and we don't want to make confident

:16:34.:16:36.

predictions but the basic structure is that there are 30,000 Iraqi

:16:37.:16:45.

forces outside and only a few thousand Daesh fighters inside and I

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would say it is overwhelmingly likely that the batter will one

:16:52.:17:00.

STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the Iraqi forces.

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June 2014 was a great success, they took a city of over in people and

:17:04.:17:11.

they created what they tried to create a million state of 7 million

:17:12.:17:15.

people, stretching across the Iraqi Syrian border, but since then they

:17:16.:17:20.

have lost territory quite rapidly. Now they are losing the outskirts of

:17:21.:17:22.

have lost territory quite rapidly. Mosul, and that is a fundamental

:17:23.:17:26.

blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is

:17:27.:17:29.

what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that

:17:30.:17:36.

will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary

:17:37.:17:41.

Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi

:17:42.:17:45.

forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of

:17:46.:17:48.

Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which

:17:49.:17:55.

is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we

:17:56.:18:00.

want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.

:18:01.:18:08.

Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the

:18:09.:18:10.

border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of

:18:11.:18:16.

that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the

:18:17.:18:21.

coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is

:18:22.:18:28.

likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street

:18:29.:18:32.

to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we

:18:33.:18:37.

doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is

:18:38.:18:42.

very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone

:18:43.:18:46.

into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps

:18:47.:18:56.

around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, ?40

:18:57.:19:02.

million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms

:19:03.:19:06.

of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response

:19:07.:19:13.

budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we

:19:14.:19:16.

are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is

:19:17.:19:21.

that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this

:19:22.:19:24.

assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You

:19:25.:19:31.

are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning

:19:32.:19:34.

since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --

:19:35.:19:40.

planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the

:19:41.:19:44.

appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we

:19:45.:19:47.

need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in

:19:48.:19:52.

place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is

:19:53.:19:55.

continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.

:19:56.:19:59.

The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big

:20:00.:20:03.

exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist

:20:04.:20:09.

magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a

:20:10.:20:14.

unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios, it

:20:15.:20:18.

could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out

:20:19.:20:20.

of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is

:20:21.:20:26.

very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and

:20:27.:20:29.

keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring

:20:30.:20:33.

them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been

:20:34.:20:37.

working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we

:20:38.:20:41.

have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have

:20:42.:20:47.

worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their

:20:48.:20:51.

structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have

:20:52.:20:54.

done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the

:20:55.:20:59.

British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming

:21:00.:21:05.

that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt

:21:06.:21:11.

with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be

:21:12.:21:16.

crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need

:21:17.:21:22.

to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as

:21:23.:21:27.

bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by

:21:28.:21:31.

the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is

:21:32.:21:38.

that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they

:21:39.:21:41.

have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is

:21:42.:21:47.

stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making

:21:48.:21:52.

sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is

:21:53.:21:56.

making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK's

:21:57.:22:01.

response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that

:22:02.:22:07.

is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the

:22:08.:22:11.

front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to

:22:12.:22:15.

make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that

:22:16.:22:19.

population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing

:22:20.:22:26.

territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we

:22:27.:22:31.

think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part

:22:32.:22:37.

of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult

:22:38.:22:41.

across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United

:22:42.:22:47.

Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real

:22:48.:22:53.

danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last

:22:54.:22:57.

five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop

:22:58.:23:03.

often it does unexpected things. In 2009 its predecessor had been

:23:04.:23:08.

largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it

:23:09.:23:12.

went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it

:23:13.:23:16.

holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it

:23:17.:23:19.

gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else

:23:20.:23:23.

and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They

:23:24.:23:28.

say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a

:23:29.:23:34.

big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we

:23:35.:23:36.

keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say. --

:23:37.:23:48.

safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in

:23:49.:23:51.

Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen

:23:52.:23:58.

in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the

:23:59.:24:01.

conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much

:24:02.:24:04.

energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the

:24:05.:24:09.

humanitarian response in place -- put so much energy. People will want

:24:10.:24:14.

to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to

:24:15.:24:17.

make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking

:24:18.:24:21.

after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they

:24:22.:24:24.

have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why

:24:25.:24:30.

our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals

:24:31.:24:33.

with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.

:24:34.:24:40.

I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.

:24:41.:24:48.

Does Labour support British participation in this offensive? We

:24:49.:24:59.

fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important

:25:00.:25:04.

move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the

:25:05.:25:10.

government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State

:25:11.:25:13.

this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF

:25:14.:25:19.

pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces

:25:20.:25:23.

on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if

:25:24.:25:28.

you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your

:25:29.:25:35.

leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.

:25:36.:25:37.

What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi

:25:38.:25:39.

government, and currently supported by the British government.

:25:40.:25:41.

I did not support it when it came up.

:25:42.:25:43.

Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most

:25:44.:25:47.

of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we

:25:48.:25:50.

He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been

:25:51.:25:59.

very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have

:26:00.:26:03.

learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt

:26:04.:26:08.

sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the

:26:09.:26:12.

aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was

:26:13.:26:18.

from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told

:26:19.:26:25.

the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air

:26:26.:26:29.

strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in

:26:30.:26:33.

Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face

:26:34.:26:36.

the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.

:26:37.:26:41.

We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it

:26:42.:26:48.

is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic

:26:49.:26:53.

State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is

:26:54.:26:57.

he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the

:26:58.:27:03.

past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,

:27:04.:27:07.

both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also

:27:08.:27:09.

in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you

:27:10.:27:15.

mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress

:27:16.:27:19.

with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do

:27:20.:27:25.

you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to

:27:26.:27:36.

read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the

:27:37.:27:45.

car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems

:27:46.:27:53.

they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to

:27:54.:27:58.

pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have

:27:59.:28:01.

become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer

:28:02.:28:06.

interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to

:28:07.:28:12.

the renewal of Trident? It will. We made that commitment in 2007, that

:28:13.:28:16.

is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies

:28:17.:28:19.

and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken

:28:20.:28:24.

democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference

:28:25.:28:27.

and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy

:28:28.:28:36.

Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,

:28:37.:28:39.

but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the

:28:40.:28:42.

international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very

:28:43.:28:49.

clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the

:28:50.:28:53.

next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of

:28:54.:28:58.

Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a

:28:59.:29:01.

very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are

:29:02.:29:06.

reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can't

:29:07.:29:13.

change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues

:29:14.:29:16.

related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can't

:29:17.:29:23.

change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to

:29:24.:29:28.

Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It

:29:29.:29:32.

is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato

:29:33.:29:35.

allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not

:29:36.:29:40.

let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the

:29:41.:29:43.

way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be

:29:44.:29:48.

taking them to international court over this, but we should also be

:29:49.:29:51.

taking them to international court strengthening sanctions, somewhat

:29:52.:29:57.

imposed over Ukraine. We try to do that, but the Italians wouldn't let

:29:58.:30:02.

us. The Italians did not want to participate in the European

:30:03.:30:03.

initiative but that doesn't stop individual countries for the Britain

:30:04.:30:10.

should step up? Yes, we should look at what is practical to impose.

:30:11.:30:13.

Thanks for joining us. Mosul is not the only major battle

:30:14.:30:18.

being waged in the Middle East. The city of Aleppo in northern Syria

:30:19.:30:21.

has seen some of the heaviest bombardment since Syria's

:30:22.:30:25.

five-year-long civil war began. This week Russian warships,

:30:26.:30:28.

in a deliberate show of power, sailed west through the English

:30:29.:30:31.

channel en route to Syria. Nato says it's Russia's "largest

:30:32.:30:35.

surface deployment" since the end of the Cold War in what is thought

:30:36.:30:38.

to be preparation for a final assault

:30:39.:30:41.

on the besieged city of Aleppo. In the city itself fighting

:30:42.:30:45.

resumed overnight - following a 3-day ceasefire -

:30:46.:30:49.

with more air strikes and heavy clashes in the city's

:30:50.:30:54.

rebel-held eastern districts. Almost 500 people have been

:30:55.:30:57.

killed and 2,000 injured since Syrian government forces,

:30:58.:31:00.

backed by Russian air strikes, This week Theresa May condemned

:31:01.:31:04.

Vladimir Putin's involvement in Syria, accusing Moscow

:31:05.:31:11.

of being behind "sickening atrocities" in support

:31:12.:31:14.

of President Assad's regime. But European leaders are divided

:31:15.:31:17.

on how to respond and, with the United States preoccupied

:31:18.:31:21.

with domestic politics, President Putin senses this

:31:22.:31:24.

is his moment to bring the Syrian I'm joined now by the BBC's former

:31:25.:31:28.

Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent, Bridget Kendall, who is now Master

:31:29.:31:36.

of Peterhouse College in Cambridge. Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC

:31:37.:31:49.

studio again. Let me put up this satellite image of Aleppo here, to

:31:50.:31:56.

get an idea of the scale. It was the biggest city in Syria. It was the

:31:57.:32:01.

commercial capital and a huge cultural hub as well. Almost the New

:32:02.:32:06.

York of Syria, to give you an idea of its significance to the country.

:32:07.:32:11.

Let me show you now how it's been divided. The rebels are now in

:32:12.:32:16.

control of the eastern part, about eight miles long and three miles

:32:17.:32:23.

wide there, they're in purple. They are under great attacks still. Is it

:32:24.:32:27.

inevitable that that purple part falls to the regime? That is what

:32:28.:32:36.

President as Saad, the Russians and the Iranians hope. The fierce

:32:37.:32:42.

bombardments we have seen is part of that. I'm reminded very much in the

:32:43.:32:46.

Russian tactics of what happened in grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when

:32:47.:32:51.

the Russians said, a warning for all civilians to lead, and then they

:32:52.:32:57.

went ahead and they basically raised it to the ground. They are talking

:32:58.:33:02.

about Al Nusrah as being one of the rebel groups. They got rid of all of

:33:03.:33:08.

the terrorists. They talk about it being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The

:33:09.:33:12.

purpose of going in is to get rid of them. You get the civilians out and

:33:13.:33:16.

then you take it. But this isn't like Chechnya. It is much more

:33:17.:33:21.

complex. We have seen an attempt to take Aleppo before, and then there

:33:22.:33:26.

was a rebel counter offensive. It's not so certain. And there are so

:33:27.:33:30.

many different parties involved. We have seen the alarm in the west of

:33:31.:33:34.

the extent of the civilian casualties. There have been

:33:35.:33:36.

rumblings in the west of, the United States do something?

:33:37.:33:46.

Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air force? This Russian aircraft carrier

:33:47.:33:50.

steaming its way towards the Eastern Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture,

:33:51.:33:55.

both to its own people, but also to the West, to say, don't get involved

:33:56.:34:01.

in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try and stop us because we could up the

:34:02.:34:08.

ante. They have not been great visual pictures, because the

:34:09.:34:12.

aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped out, belching out smoke! If the

:34:13.:34:18.

rebel controlled area does fall, it would be seen as a great victory for

:34:19.:34:23.

President as Saad and his Russian allies. What is the aim of Russia

:34:24.:34:28.

here? What would they then do, if Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan

:34:29.:34:33.

that President Putin set out in his UN speech in 2014, before Russia

:34:34.:34:39.

went into Syria. The aim is to put President Assad back in charge.

:34:40.:34:43.

President Putin said this weekend that either is Assad in Damascus, or

:34:44.:34:48.

its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in between. They want to eliminate the

:34:49.:34:53.

argument for a moderate opposition. They want to make it plain that the

:34:54.:34:58.

only way to get a stable Syria is to have Assad back in charge. Even sue

:34:59.:35:06.

argue for a rump steak lit, leaving aside what is happening with IAS.

:35:07.:35:15.

They have already said they want to have an enlarged military presence

:35:16.:35:19.

at their bases. And they have a big naval base. It is. It is a chance to

:35:20.:35:27.

push for this when he sees the West is being distracted and divided.

:35:28.:35:33.

Europe and America, by elections and so on. Just before the US elections.

:35:34.:35:38.

The Americans are worried about that, Europeans are being distracted

:35:39.:35:43.

by Brexit. He can push to his maximum advantage now, before there

:35:44.:35:48.

is a new US president. If they do take that part of Aleppo, and that

:35:49.:35:58.

part of northern Syria, does Mr Putin want us to recognise, to

:35:59.:36:03.

admit, that that is now his sphere of influence? I think the rhetoric

:36:04.:36:08.

from the Russians is that they want the West to recognise that they are

:36:09.:36:13.

an equal powerful partner. It's not just the US that runs the writ in

:36:14.:36:18.

the Middle East. Russia is as important as it is. It is engaging

:36:19.:36:24.

with Saudi Arabia and has mended fences with Turkey. Syria is the

:36:25.:36:29.

place from which it can launch its message that it is a big player in

:36:30.:36:34.

the Middle East. Russia wants the West to understand that this isn't a

:36:35.:36:39.

country that was dismembered after the end of the Soviet Union and is

:36:40.:36:44.

now a week. It is back, and it is strong. That is an important

:36:45.:36:50.

message. Looking at the economy. It is in recession. GDP has been

:36:51.:36:54.

falling, partly because of the price of oil. It is highly dependent on

:36:55.:36:58.

hydrocarbons, and is expected to of oil. It is highly dependent on

:36:59.:37:02.

fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how

:37:03.:37:08.

small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It

:37:09.:37:14.

is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years

:37:15.:37:23.

ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?

:37:24.:37:28.

A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a

:37:29.:37:33.

price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting

:37:34.:37:39.

the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which

:37:40.:37:44.

is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and

:37:45.:37:50.

dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.

:37:51.:37:57.

But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are

:37:58.:38:01.

supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2017,

:38:02.:38:06.

because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for

:38:07.:38:11.

the Russian people. Thank you very much.

:38:12.:38:19.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:38:20.:38:21.

Coming up on the programme: Nicola Sturgeon publishes her draft

:38:22.:38:24.

referendum bill and warns Theresa May if there's a hard Brexit

:38:25.:38:27.

there will be another vote on independence.

:38:28.:38:31.

We'll hear from a former SNP leader why he thinks that's

:38:32.:38:34.

The Scottish Greens could scupper another independence referendum.

:38:35.:38:44.

I'll be asking their leader whether they might.

:38:45.:38:46.

And Pravda is coming to Edinburgh.

:38:47.:38:47.

The former leader of the SNP, Gordon Wilson, has warned the party

:38:48.:38:53.

to put its own house in order before going for a second referendum.

:38:54.:38:57.

He fears that, with the IndyRef2 Draft Bill published,

:38:58.:38:59.

there will be those in the party who'll push

:39:00.:39:01.

A message was do not push for independence right now.

:39:02.:39:15.

The reasons against having one is that Scotland potluck Independent is

:39:16.:39:26.

unlikely to win because there a gap between ten point between 45 and 55.

:39:27.:39:31.

Quite narrow territory in which to fight it. Of course if there is

:39:32.:39:34.

another provocation from London which seems to be the case with

:39:35.:39:37.

Theresa May and her ministers being very harsh on the consultation with

:39:38.:39:43.

Scotland, who can tell what the result will be. If you go back to

:39:44.:39:47.

the first referendum, then of course there will be a huge gap to begin

:39:48.:39:52.

with. It started moving in favour of independence when George on spawn

:39:53.:39:55.

was Chancellor of the Exchequer and started threatening Scotland that he

:39:56.:40:03.

could not use the pound. For now, you do not think it should be done.

:40:04.:40:09.

My preference is that over the longer times and we should focus on

:40:10.:40:14.

the narrative of it. Why is God and should have it what the economic

:40:15.:40:18.

advantages would be, what weaknesses we need to resolve in our society,

:40:19.:40:22.

in other words to do the basic homework. People will want to know

:40:23.:40:26.

and want to touch this solution and see if it is solid enough for them

:40:27.:40:31.

to rely on. Of course, beyond that there is a question of identity.

:40:32.:40:35.

That seems to fall into place automatically. There are dangers on

:40:36.:40:40.

there? On an interview on the radio comedies said a second referendum at

:40:41.:40:46.

the moment could be a waste of time. It is more than that, if they lost a

:40:47.:40:50.

second referendum, it would be a waste of time and it would be

:40:51.:40:55.

counter productive. That was me being dogmatic about it. Of course

:40:56.:40:57.

Theresa May faces the same problem. Theresa May faces the same problem.

:40:58.:41:04.

-- diplomatic about it. If she Theresa May carries on in the way

:41:05.:41:09.

she is legible push Scotland towards independence. It is a gamble for

:41:10.:41:16.

both sides. Your golden rule is to not have a referendum and less you

:41:17.:41:21.

know you can win it. That is my preference in business and in life.

:41:22.:41:25.

It is far better to be in a strong position, having laid down the

:41:26.:41:28.

conditions under which it will take place and I think in the current

:41:29.:41:35.

rather difficult situation of Brexit, then it is going to be a

:41:36.:41:39.

very complicated question to answer. And I am not sure it can easily be

:41:40.:41:43.

done over the course of our six-month referendum campaign.

:41:44.:41:47.

Having said that, one of the things you have got to note is the access

:41:48.:41:51.

to the single market. Nicola Sturgeon is pushing the independence

:41:52.:41:55.

line as a means of kicking the British Government into looking at

:41:56.:41:58.

line as a means of kicking the Scotland's needs. Scotland will

:41:59.:42:03.

suffer the pretty badly if the Brexit deal does not look at our

:42:04.:42:08.

particular needs in economy and society. She is quite right.

:42:09.:42:12.

Unfortunately, this. Its people do not show the aim enthusiasm. Because

:42:13.:42:20.

if they showed support for independence and another referendum,

:42:21.:42:22.

then you would find that London's views would change very sharply. Do

:42:23.:42:27.

you think before you have a referendum that 55 or 60% favour in

:42:28.:42:35.

the polls is then you would need? Yes. My figure is like 55 to 60 is

:42:36.:42:43.

safer territory. Like most former politicians I am fairly

:42:44.:42:47.

opportunistic in these matters and things can change radically. At the

:42:48.:42:52.

moment, the consensus view is that we need a bit of a buffer. Do not

:42:53.:42:56.

forget that we are living in tremulous times with the UK pulling

:42:57.:43:01.

out of the European Union. That is both a plus and a minus factor and

:43:02.:43:06.

there are the Scottish economy declining in the last couple of

:43:07.:43:11.

years because of the drop in oil revenues and oil activity affecting

:43:12.:43:15.

jobs. It is not the best of time, but on other hand there are

:43:16.:43:19.

challenges and there are opportunities. One must keep their

:43:20.:43:21.

mind open. You would like a longer opportunities. One must keep their

:43:22.:43:28.

term campaign for independence, not a referendum necessarily. But that

:43:29.:43:32.

to one side. For independence. That campaign should be separated out

:43:33.:43:36.

from the SNP Government, wouldn't you? I think the thing that the SNP

:43:37.:43:43.

has to keep in mind is that the outcome of a referendum may be a

:43:44.:43:49.

vote on it's popularity. The success of the 2014 independence referendum,

:43:50.:43:55.

there was a way in which it brought together all sorts of people out of

:43:56.:44:00.

the dark so to speak and into the political arena. New enthusiasms.

:44:01.:44:05.

They still exist, although I suspect a lot of the phase has gone out of

:44:06.:44:11.

the bottle since. We have to get them together to get the argument as

:44:12.:44:15.

to why Scotland needs independence and so that they consider you to

:44:16.:44:19.

their friends and family and neighbours. Also, the work has to be

:44:20.:44:25.

done. My experience as a member of Parliament for 13 years was I had

:44:26.:44:28.

been naive view of being elected that I had plenty of finding thing.

:44:29.:44:33.

In actual fact, I was on a treadmill had no time to think will stop --

:44:34.:44:44.

plenty of time to think. The running of the management was subcontracted

:44:45.:44:46.

by the SNP. Image of a priority to the question

:44:47.:45:00.

of independence itself. It should be stressed that a referendum is only a

:45:01.:45:05.

means to an end. It is not meant to itself. The end must be independence

:45:06.:45:09.

for the point of view of the nationalist community. We have got

:45:10.:45:15.

to prepare the ground so that people are persuaded that the best possible

:45:16.:45:19.

thing for Scotland in the long run and the middle term is to attain

:45:20.:45:27.

independence. By definition that would involve bringing in other

:45:28.:45:32.

people out of the SNP. One of the reason I am asking you this is that

:45:33.:45:36.

I will be talking later in this programme to Patrick Harvie, the

:45:37.:45:39.

leader of the Scottish Greens. I don't know what he will save, but I

:45:40.:45:43.

know there is a feeling amongst some who are in favour of the

:45:44.:45:48.

independence but are not in the SNP, but they are being a bit patronised

:45:49.:45:52.

and being left out. You might have a solution to that? Yes. I don't

:45:53.:46:07.

think... I have relaxed with the years. There is an example, in the

:46:08.:46:14.

early 70s there was a body called radio free Scotland which was

:46:15.:46:18.

separate from the SNP, but worked alongside it and produced the

:46:19.:46:24.

message. I would think that we don't need to separate bodies, but we

:46:25.:46:25.

message. I would think that we don't need the S and the governing

:46:26.:46:31.

Scotland and giving a good there. -- the S NP governing Scotland. Also

:46:32.:46:38.

the economic and social case for independence. That is where we need

:46:39.:46:43.

to take the voices of other people including people like Patrick Harvie

:46:44.:46:48.

and the Greens. Including many others in various organisations

:46:49.:46:52.

which mushroomed during the referendum. They are still there.

:46:53.:46:57.

They should still be consulted and that should be a strength that that

:46:58.:47:01.

should be. We have to be careful about that because too much

:47:02.:47:04.

independence and that point of view should cause anarchy. There has to

:47:05.:47:11.

be some guidance. The SNP should not be heavy-handed. You said in a radio

:47:12.:47:17.

interview that we did that was broadcast earlier that there was

:47:18.:47:21.

home to be done. We talked a bit about the deficit that Scotland

:47:22.:47:24.

might have should it become independent. I should apologise, I

:47:25.:47:29.

said it was 15% of GDP. It is axing 15 million pounds, it is 10% of GDP.

:47:30.:47:37.

A very big number still. We should talk about how the Scottish

:47:38.:47:41.

Government should head of those objections and have a more balanced

:47:42.:47:45.

budget. I know that you think that the figures don't reflect the state

:47:46.:47:52.

of the Scottish economy. Is woke in that interview that these civil

:47:53.:47:55.

service might be cut back. That is a tiny amount of money, isn't it? The

:47:56.:48:00.

civil service contributes quite a bit of money in itself. The main

:48:01.:48:07.

problem I have with the civil service from experience and looking

:48:08.:48:11.

at it latterly is that it is not all that efficient. I would say that an

:48:12.:48:16.

efficiency drive within the civil service itself, including a drop in

:48:17.:48:22.

numbers, would be desirable, whether or not you had for independence. It

:48:23.:48:28.

is also a bad thing to exist solely on 1's for services. The point I was

:48:29.:48:34.

making was that it may or may not be a good thing to have more efficiency

:48:35.:48:37.

in this double service, but it might not address the deficit problem. It

:48:38.:48:42.

is such a small amount of public spending on the civil service. What

:48:43.:48:45.

people don't realise is that when you take the figures that is the

:48:46.:48:50.

estimate of Scotland boss might budget, which is based upon the fact

:48:51.:48:57.

that the money that is allocated to Scotland is not spent in Scotland.

:48:58.:49:03.

Foreign service, defence, Social Security. Some of it of course is

:49:04.:49:07.

spent in Scotland. There are things that are excluded. What we don't

:49:08.:49:11.

have at the moment is a Scottish budget. I think that Scotland should

:49:12.:49:17.

re-fashion it's budget to suit the realities of independent Scotland.

:49:18.:49:22.

We are not a cutdown party. One more thing I want to do ask you about

:49:23.:49:27.

briefly. At the Lee Mack one point you made earlier was that you said

:49:28.:49:32.

briefly. At the Lee Mack one point that support for independence was

:49:33.:49:36.

27% at the beginning of the referendum campaign on one of your

:49:37.:49:43.

points was that why was it only 27% after seven years of SNP Government.

:49:44.:49:45.

What is your answer to that question that you raise? The reason is fairly

:49:46.:49:51.

simple. The SNP had been preparing for Government over a period of

:49:52.:49:55.

years and in fact, it's way of looking at independence was that it

:49:56.:50:00.

became a Scottish referendum party and then surprisingly found itself a

:50:01.:50:11.

nobility with able to deliver. Most of the gone into the thought of

:50:12.:50:19.

independence and too much money had gone into Government. If your other

:50:20.:50:24.

objective and is independence, then that is exactly. That is exactly the

:50:25.:50:30.

point I'm making for the future. There should be a longer term

:50:31.:50:35.

established in and protection for the case for independence so we

:50:36.:50:38.

don't make the mistake of the 27% as in 2014.

:50:39.:50:45.

As the delegates leave the Scottish Greens conference

:50:46.:50:50.

in Perth this afternoon they'll surely be musing on the party's

:50:51.:50:52.

While supporting the SNP's key objective of independence,

:50:53.:50:55.

they've also committed to finding new ways to wring concessions

:50:56.:50:58.

Relatively small in number, they have six MSPs, the Scottish Green

:50:59.:51:10.

Party are not strangers for fighting to causes close to their hearts.

:51:11.:51:14.

They made a stand on council tax and fracking and then there is the

:51:15.:51:17.

Scottish Government 's backing of a third runway at Heathrow and a cut

:51:18.:51:23.

in air passenger duty, moves which Patrick Harvie described as

:51:24.:51:25.

unthinkable. With the Scottish Greens the only Scottish party in

:51:26.:51:28.

unthinkable. With the Scottish favour of independence they should

:51:29.:51:36.

be in a strong position to win concessions. We would like to see

:51:37.:51:41.

the SNP standing their ground on being progressive, as they claim to

:51:42.:51:45.

be, to get in in previous governments. They have said some

:51:46.:51:48.

good words and done a few good things but there are areas where we

:51:49.:51:51.

need to keep holding their feet to the fire and that is what we will

:51:52.:51:55.

do. There are other policies where we will try a nudge the SNP in the

:51:56.:52:00.

right direction, the progressive direction, away from looking after

:52:01.:52:07.

big business which is tempting for them. Good Green Party support in

:52:08.:52:09.

parliament be conditional? Personally I would put it that way

:52:10.:52:10.

parliament be conditional? but whether that will be party

:52:11.:52:14.

policy I can't comment because I am not involved in that but from a

:52:15.:52:19.

personal point of view I would like to see conditions. The Patrick

:52:20.:52:21.

Harvie message to the SNP is to commit to meaningful progress of

:52:22.:52:25.

changes and you would get our support, failed to commit and you

:52:26.:52:28.

risk being remembered as a timid government.

:52:29.:52:29.

Well, joining me outside his party's conference in Perth

:52:30.:52:31.

is the Scottish Green's co-convener Patrick Harvie.

:52:32.:52:38.

I was going to say how blessed you are being in the fair city but it

:52:39.:52:46.

appears to be raining! Well, we have had mixed weather in Perth, to be

:52:47.:52:51.

fair, but there has been a very good atmosphere inside the conference,

:52:52.:52:54.

not only as we celebrate the election of our additional MSPs in

:52:55.:52:58.

the most recent Holyrood election but prepare as well for the local

:52:59.:53:02.

elections next year where we will be fielding the biggest number of

:53:03.:53:05.

candidates ever and with the capacity we have grown across the

:53:06.:53:08.

country to get out and campaign on a scale that has been lacking in the

:53:09.:53:13.

past so we are really optimistic about the achievement of getting

:53:14.:53:21.

more councillors elected right about the achievement of getting

:53:22.:53:23.

across Scotland. Can I get your view on something that Gordon Wilson was

:53:24.:53:25.

talking about there, where he is keen on the idea of separating a

:53:26.:53:28.

campaign for independence from the SNP running the Scottish Government

:53:29.:53:32.

and he talked about having perhaps initially a think tank, something

:53:33.:53:35.

that is independent of the SNP, which would involve people like

:53:36.:53:38.

yourselves. Presumably you would welcome that. I would welcome a kind

:53:39.:53:44.

of development. One of the challenge is to get over in that is how you

:53:45.:53:49.

would ensure that the multiple arguments, the many cases on

:53:50.:53:54.

independence would be heard within that, rather than just one dominant

:53:55.:53:58.

voice. That was one of the problems of the 2014 campaign which we have

:53:59.:54:05.

said openly in the past. The diversity of arguments about what an

:54:06.:54:08.

independent Scotland could be light is one of the strengths and a

:54:09.:54:14.

democratic system. We should be celebrating diversity arguments as a

:54:15.:54:16.

strength in our culture, not regarding it as a weakness. There

:54:17.:54:21.

are different arguments to be made about what kind of policies or

:54:22.:54:26.

directions or economic futures the idea of an independent Scotland

:54:27.:54:30.

could encompass. Just look at the question of oil and gas. We have

:54:31.:54:34.

been arguing consistently that investment in a sustainable and

:54:35.:54:38.

long-term economy that can provide jobs that last for the long-term is

:54:39.:54:43.

an urgent priority, instead of just pretending Matfield is coming to the

:54:44.:54:47.

end of their lives will somehow lost for ever. That is not realistic.

:54:48.:54:51.

end of their lives will somehow lost With your extra MSPs, which you were

:54:52.:54:55.

very quick to mention, the Scottish Greens have an incredibly powerful

:54:56.:54:59.

position in this Parliament. You have been talking at this conference

:55:00.:55:03.

about how your support for the SNP budget would be conditional on

:55:04.:55:08.

various things like fracking and air passenger duty but it is not the

:55:09.:55:11.

real power you have. The real power you have is that they cannot have

:55:12.:55:15.

another independence referendum unless you back them. I think it

:55:16.:55:23.

would be quite wrong for any political party to use the fact of

:55:24.:55:28.

minority government as something to start playing games like that. I am

:55:29.:55:32.

not going to trade off our support for a policy that we agree with in

:55:33.:55:37.

exchange for completely different issues. The case needs to be

:55:38.:55:40.

strengthened for independence, and I would agree with Gordon Wilson on

:55:41.:55:45.

that point although I do not think I would agree with all the arguments

:55:46.:55:51.

he might want to put, but the case needs to be strengthened.

:55:52.:55:54.

Fundamentally this is a conflict between two referendum results. Let

:55:55.:56:03.

us come that a moment. The real power you have is that you can say

:56:04.:56:08.

to the SNP government, if you abolish air passenger duty we won't

:56:09.:56:13.

vote for a seven part around -- separate referendum. If you don't

:56:14.:56:17.

abolish fracking we won't vote for a separate referendum. I've always

:56:18.:56:20.

understood that independence for you as a more tactical thing and it is

:56:21.:56:24.

not your obsession but it is a way of getting the green policies you

:56:25.:56:29.

want, so why subordinate the green policies you want and turn

:56:30.:56:31.

independence into some kind of principal? The idea of Scotland

:56:32.:56:38.

becoming independent is absolutely a means to an end, and means of

:56:39.:56:44.

achieving the Sarah Scotland we would be more able to deliver with

:56:45.:56:48.

the powers of independence. It is not a bargaining chip. Why not?

:56:49.:56:56.

Because I think it would be at Tiley unethical way to do politics. We

:56:57.:57:02.

will argue the case on fracking, as we have done, and pushed the

:57:03.:57:06.

Scottish Government to add underground gas to that moratoria

:57:07.:57:10.

manned ban it altogether but I am confident that working alongside all

:57:11.:57:13.

of those who support a ban on fracking we will achieve that. The

:57:14.:57:18.

Tories piping up and say how brilliant fracking would-be helps to

:57:19.:57:22.

make our case for that. On the budget we are going to argue for

:57:23.:57:26.

progressive taxation and make sure that we can protect the public

:57:27.:57:29.

services that we need to value in Scotland. Why would you block their

:57:30.:57:35.

budget but not their referendum? It is on the referendum that you have

:57:36.:57:38.

the power. Unless they give in to what you want they simply can't have

:57:39.:57:43.

it. You have immense leadership when it comes to the referendum. They

:57:44.:57:46.

will find people in other parties it comes to the referendum. They

:57:47.:57:49.

support them on their budget but only you can deliver their

:57:50.:57:55.

referendum. I think it remains to be seen whether they find more support

:57:56.:57:59.

on the budget and a new Finance secretary will have to give some

:58:00.:58:02.

ground from the SNP 's manifesto position if he wants to persuade

:58:03.:58:06.

others to support the budget. The idea that we would drop a policy

:58:07.:58:12.

that we support, the idea of supporting independence or putting

:58:13.:58:13.

that we support, the idea of that to the electorate on the basis

:58:14.:58:18.

of a grubby deal about other issues, I don't think that would be

:58:19.:58:22.

principle that all. But we have a pro-conflict between the way

:58:23.:58:26.

Scotland voted in 2014 and 2016. I know and respect that not everyone

:58:27.:58:29.

who voted remain this year will suddenly want to switch and --

:58:30.:58:33.

support independence but we have to respect the fact that not everyone

:58:34.:58:38.

who voted no in 2014 is willing to sit Scotland dragged out of Europe

:58:39.:58:42.

against our will, surrendering rights, having rights taken away

:58:43.:58:45.

from people that we did not vote to surrender. 62% of us voted to remain

:58:46.:58:52.

in that mandate is being utterly disregarded by the UK Government and

:58:53.:58:56.

I think the case is strong that the people of Scotland to need at least

:58:57.:58:59.

the possibility of having that question put to them so that they

:59:00.:59:03.

can resolve that conflict in the only way that is legitimate, a

:59:04.:59:08.

democratic process, and the vote of all people, including the people who

:59:09.:59:11.

were denied a vote in the EU referendum and EU nationals whose

:59:12.:59:16.

lives are in turmoil as a result of that. Isn't your argument there from

:59:17.:59:22.

a democratic point of view a bit iffy? To say that somehow or other a

:59:23.:59:25.

a democratic point of view a bit pretty clear referendum vote that

:59:26.:59:29.

was made two years ago is now cast into doubt? It is patronising to the

:59:30.:59:34.

people of Scotland. Many people who voted no will say, I'm sorry, we

:59:35.:59:38.

understood perfectly well what we voted for, we want to be part of the

:59:39.:59:42.

United Kingdom and for you to start claiming that somehow we didn't know

:59:43.:59:46.

what we were doing and therefore we have to vote again, sorry, we are

:59:47.:59:52.

not having it. I don't think for a moment that people didn't know what

:59:53.:59:56.

they were doing. We had a long and engaging debate in the long run up

:59:57.:00:00.

to that campaign but the reality is if you voted no and then you voted

:00:01.:00:06.

remain, you are not going to get what you want. We have to resolve

:00:07.:00:10.

this fundamental conflict and there will be many people who voted no who

:00:11.:00:14.

are willing to leave the European Union, but there are also people who

:00:15.:00:18.

voted no who believed better together when they said that VoIP --

:00:19.:00:23.

voting yes would put our future in Europe at rest and voting there

:00:24.:00:26.

would safeguard it. That was a piece of nonsense as many of the lies of

:00:27.:00:31.

the league campaign this year were shown to be utterly spurious

:00:32.:00:36.

nonsense is oh there is a real conflict, fundamental conflict,

:00:37.:00:39.

between the results of the way people in Scotland voted in these

:00:40.:00:43.

two referendums. Your argument might have some credibility if there had

:00:44.:00:47.

been a big upsurge in the polls in favour of either having a second

:00:48.:00:51.

referendum or voted for independence, but there hasn't been,

:00:52.:00:59.

so a lot of people in Scotland will say, thank you very much for

:01:00.:01:01.

sympathising with our alleged democratic deficit that you are just

:01:02.:01:04.

making this up and we are not interested. I think the polls are

:01:05.:01:20.

showing there has been movement in real directions. The UK Government

:01:21.:01:24.

are taking a 52% result across the UK and turning it into a mandate for

:01:25.:01:28.

Art Brexit and taking us out not only of the European Union itself

:01:29.:01:33.

but also out of the single market with all the economic consequences

:01:34.:01:36.

that will have four people's jobs and incomes and coal industries. We

:01:37.:01:41.

have just been speaking to some of the higher education sector in

:01:42.:01:44.

Scotland here at the conference who are deeply concerned about the level

:01:45.:01:49.

of interest from EU students coming to study here and their ability to

:01:50.:01:59.

cooperate and collaborate with higher education institutions in

:02:00.:02:00.

terms of research grants and funding. Scotland has made a

:02:01.:02:02.

fantastic contribution to a lot of those projects and that kind of

:02:03.:02:05.

thing is being put at risk and as people see the consequences of that

:02:06.:02:08.

hard Brexit, of Liam Fox and Boris Johnson and others who have no

:02:09.:02:11.

regard at all for the way Scotland voted, that is what they have been

:02:12.:02:16.

aiming for and we will reject that. Going back to the beginning of this

:02:17.:02:20.

conversation, there seems to be an acceptance within the SNP that some

:02:21.:02:24.

aspects for the prospectus of independence, including the

:02:25.:02:27.

currency, were not really convincing enough. We have had the collapse in

:02:28.:02:32.

oil prices and the risk of a large deficit in Scotland. Everyone is

:02:33.:02:36.

saying these issues must be addressed but the problem seems to

:02:37.:02:40.

be that they are not, as a matter of fact being addressed, are they? We

:02:41.:02:45.

are not getting answers. Well, the Scottish Green Party I think are the

:02:46.:02:48.

only party who made any credible effort to suggest a credible

:02:49.:02:53.

economic path of Scotland that ends our reliance on fossil fuels but

:02:54.:02:56.

invest in economies and industries that will create the jobs that

:02:57.:03:00.

communities, particularly those most reliant on fossil fuels, they need

:03:01.:03:06.

to see a positive future rather than, as with previous ways of

:03:07.:03:11.

deindustrialisation, people being left on the economic scrapheap. We

:03:12.:03:14.

are also trying to do work and we will continue that this year on the

:03:15.:03:16.

are also trying to do work and we alternatives of currency but the

:03:17.:03:19.

idea of a currency union with a non-EU member state, if we were to

:03:20.:03:23.

become independent and seek to be a full EU member, I think that is even

:03:24.:03:28.

more problematic than it was in 2014 so I am glad there is some

:03:29.:03:36.

willingness to start finally looking at laying the groundwork for the

:03:37.:03:39.

other options that need to be made credible and need to be made

:03:40.:03:42.

realistic options for Scotland. We have to leave it there. Thank you

:03:43.:03:43.

very much. Russian warships have been

:03:44.:03:51.

in the English Channel this week, in what some have seen

:03:52.:03:53.

as a display of power. But Russia is also interested

:03:54.:03:56.

in getting its world view So we've seen an expansion

:03:57.:03:58.

in so called "soft power" too, with new state controlled media

:03:59.:04:02.

outlets broadcasting And there've been reports

:04:03.:04:03.

in the past few days that something called Pravda International,

:04:04.:04:07.

apparently a successor to the once-powerful

:04:08.:04:09.

Communist newspaper, Pravda was once the voice of the

:04:10.:04:21.

Soviet Communist Party. If you read it in Tempra temperament grow one,

:04:22.:04:23.

you knew it was what they were thinking in the Kremlin, probably.

:04:24.:04:29.

If it was in Pravda, you knew that is what they wanted you to think

:04:30.:04:32.

they were thinking in the Kremlin but what they were thinking could

:04:33.:04:38.

sometimes be slightly different. But the break-up of the Soviet Union

:04:39.:04:44.

changed everything for everyone, and for Pravda. Pravda failed to appear

:04:45.:04:48.

today for the first time since the 1917 revolution. It was split into

:04:49.:04:56.

two. There was a Pravda newspaper publication and also an online

:04:57.:05:00.

Pravda and there was a dispute about who earned the name and there was a

:05:01.:05:03.

court case and the court said that both entities could coexist.

:05:04.:05:08.

Sputnik, funded by the Russian government recently set up in

:05:09.:05:12.

Edinburgh, so it didn't seem too surprising when it was reported that

:05:13.:05:17.

a new version of Pravda, Pravda International was also going to

:05:18.:05:20.

establish a newsroom in the capital. There is a clear emphasis on

:05:21.:05:26.

presenting the Russian viewpoint and the Russian perspective so they

:05:27.:05:28.

presenting the Russian viewpoint and invested heavily in foreign news,

:05:29.:05:31.

Sputnik publishes its languages in Sputnik publishes its languages in

:05:32.:05:35.

-- articles on a number of languages which is all part of sending out

:05:36.:05:39.

messages and getting the Russian message across and most people refer

:05:40.:05:43.

to that as Russian soft power. Was it true? One of the first things

:05:44.:05:48.

that struck me was no one was talking about in the Russian media.

:05:49.:05:51.

This story got coverage in the Scottish media but it also got her a

:05:52.:05:57.

little bit of attention down south in the Guardian and the times. The

:05:58.:06:01.

Russian media normally pays quite close interest in what is happening

:06:02.:06:05.

in England and the rest of the UK and so it was quite strange they

:06:06.:06:11.

hadn't picked up on it. Trying to check out the details, starting with

:06:12.:06:15.

the Pravda International website and it gets order and order. When I went

:06:16.:06:20.

on to that website I found there were a lot of Hollywood celebrities

:06:21.:06:25.

reading a Russian newspaper but it was not Pravda, it was an obscure

:06:26.:06:28.

but eventually newspaper and there was an interesting story behind it.

:06:29.:06:32.

These photos were real but I thought they might have been photo shopped,

:06:33.:06:35.

but they were real and they were taken by a Hollywood producer and

:06:36.:06:39.

his wife who happen to come from a root skewer little town and they had

:06:40.:06:45.

done it has a weird publicity stunt. The photos were real but why they

:06:46.:06:48.

were on the website of Pravda International was strange and it set

:06:49.:06:51.

my mind thinking that it looks like a bit of a hoax.

:06:52.:06:59.

And let this story that is nothing more than smoke and mirrors?

:07:00.:07:04.

Brothers say it is nothing to do do with them. Neither do the people

:07:05.:07:11.

that we have been able to trace who are linked to Pravda International.

:07:12.:07:20.

More recently, the spat between the Russian international and the bank.

:07:21.:07:25.

Some people have interpreted this as a attempt to silence Russian

:07:26.:07:32.

opinion. This could potentially be a way for people to say it is not that

:07:33.:07:39.

easy to quieten Russian opinion. There remains a possibility that

:07:40.:07:44.

just perhaps there is some proof behind this story. It could not and

:07:45.:07:48.

it still cannot completely be ruled out that there is a genuine

:07:49.:07:54.

initiative here from people connected to the Pravda brand. It

:07:55.:08:00.

seems unlikely. There is an old Soviet joke. There are two main

:08:01.:08:05.

newspapers in the Soviet Union. There is one that means news and one

:08:06.:08:10.

that means truth. Soviet citizens is to say that there is no truth in one

:08:11.:08:15.

and no news in the other. Time now for a look

:08:16.:08:18.

at the week ahead. I'm joined now by political

:08:19.:08:26.

commentator Hamish Macdonell and Jenni Davidson of Holyrood

:08:27.:08:30.

Magazine. Let us start by looking ahead. This

:08:31.:08:43.

meeting tomorrow with Nicola Sturgeon and the other nations of

:08:44.:08:47.

the UK, including Theresa May. What we expect to happen? For the first

:08:48.:08:52.

time, it is no exaggeration to say these are crunch talks. They are

:08:53.:08:56.

very important. The opportunity that Nicola Sturgeon has two sets of the

:08:57.:09:05.

Scottish view to Theresa May. We cannot expect anything to come from

:09:06.:09:12.

it. We know where the British Government sands. It really is an

:09:13.:09:19.

occasion for both sides to get into a room together and know where they

:09:20.:09:23.

are come out and say we had a decent discussion but more talks will have

:09:24.:09:26.

to take place. Do you think these talks are five able to be fudged in

:09:27.:09:35.

any way? It is quite difficult. If they had been more moderate and how

:09:36.:09:38.

they put forward their positions, then that might have been the case.

:09:39.:09:42.

Now Nicola Sturgeon has any set a red line in terms of what she wants.

:09:43.:09:47.

Or else, it is another independence referendum. Because Theresa May and

:09:48.:09:51.

David Davis have both said they are not giving this, then that is very

:09:52.:09:56.

difficult to back down from. I am not sure how they are going to go

:09:57.:09:59.

into negotiations from this point well they have 07 what they want.

:10:00.:10:08.

There are possibilities other not? I have counted three different things.

:10:09.:10:14.

One, there has been talk that the British Government might pay into

:10:15.:10:19.

the budget if they can have the passport in rights for financial

:10:20.:10:22.

services. This means that banks will not have the setup in London and do

:10:23.:10:31.

business all across Europe. There is allsorts of talk for special

:10:32.:10:34.

provisions for Northern Ireland because of the border with the

:10:35.:10:36.

Republic. There has also been talk after the meeting Theresa May had

:10:37.:10:46.

after the owner of Mr -- Nissan. That may be that it could be paid

:10:47.:10:52.

into the car budget. There is a bit of grit therefore Nicola Sturgeon to

:10:53.:10:57.

get into their and say there is not much difference between this and

:10:58.:11:01.

what we are saying about Scotland. Yes, there would be if Nicola

:11:02.:11:03.

Sturgeon had not been so strong about the position she had taken.

:11:04.:11:10.

She says that she wants access to the singer market, full protection

:11:11.:11:14.

for Scottish residents and free movement of labour. If we just think

:11:15.:11:24.

for a second that these are two friendly sides want to reach a

:11:25.:11:25.

copper mines, then a comprised could friendly sides want to reach a

:11:26.:11:31.

be reached. We might not have Scotland in the single market, but

:11:32.:11:37.

we might have it more in it than other parts of the UK. If we were

:11:38.:11:41.

talking about two Unionist administrations then perhaps we

:11:42.:11:46.

could be. But we're talking about a Scottish Government that have the

:11:47.:11:50.

dark hour red line issues and if we do not get them they are our red

:11:51.:11:58.

line issues. If it does not deliver those things, Nicola Sturgeon has no

:11:59.:12:02.

choice but to go to the people game because she has said that that is

:12:03.:12:07.

what she will do. Do you agree with that? Isn't there some room? I do

:12:08.:12:16.

yeah. Of course that I was making maximum demands because that is the

:12:17.:12:19.

sensible thing to do when you start a negotiation. She could say I have

:12:20.:12:24.

got this and that but it is not exact what we have asked for but you

:12:25.:12:29.

can't always got what you want. I agree with Hamish. It was a

:12:30.:12:33.

different party, a Unionist party, she could say this is my starting

:12:34.:12:36.

point for negotiations. Something less is OK. Because she did -- is

:12:37.:12:46.

already under parties pressure to deliver a second referendum, then

:12:47.:12:56.

she cannot back down if you does not get what she wants. It will be

:12:57.:12:59.

difficult. She gathers and off, but she has to deliver. That track she

:13:00.:13:10.

can put it off. She will be saying thanks for nothing, mate. Gordon

:13:11.:13:16.

Wilson represents an important strand. He says: also let us not

:13:17.:13:22.

rush into this. I was at the SNP conference a week or two ago. A few

:13:23.:13:27.

people said that if we get this wrong and rush into this then we are

:13:28.:13:33.

finished. That is the line Gordon Wilson are saying. Let us not rush

:13:34.:13:38.

into this. Take the time and make sure we get it right. If we get that

:13:39.:13:41.

wrong then it will be finished. Thank you very much.

:13:42.:13:43.

I'll be back at the same time next week.

:13:44.:13:48.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer are joined by minister of state for international development Rory Stewart, shadow secretary of state for defence Nia Griffith and Paul Nuttall MEP. Political panellists include The Sun's Tom Newton Dunn, The Guardian's Polly Toynbee and The Spectator's Toby Young.


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