23/10/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


23/10/2016

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There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next

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leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,

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This man might have something to say about that.

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Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.

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So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?

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The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane

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on the country's second city which has been in the hands of

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But what will be the fallout from this key clash?

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A former SNP leader warns the party against stumbling into

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And are the Scottish Greens about to show their true colours?

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And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

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panel in the business: Toby Young, Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn -

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The last leader was in the job a mere 18 days before she decided

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The favourite to succeed her then quit the party after a now infamous

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Ukip's biggest donor says the party is at "breaking point".

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This morning, the former Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans,

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announced that she would be running for the leadership.

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I've thought long and hard about this leadership bid,

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and one of the reasons I've perhaps delayed announcing it is

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because I wanted to be absolutely sure that I had the support

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And I can confirm that I have more than enough signatures

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on the nomination form already to be able to go forward.

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Let's not forget that 3,000 people signed a petition in support of me

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I know head office was besieged with letters in support.

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I would not be doing this if I didn't have the backing

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of our members, because our members are the most important

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Well, Paul Nuttall was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years

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and plenty of people saw him as a leader-in-waiting.

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Let's ask the man himself - Paul Nuttall joins me now.

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Yes. I've made the decision that I'm going to put my name forward to be

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the next leader of Ukip. I have huge support across the country, not only

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amongst people at the top of the party in Westminster and with the

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MEPs, but also the grassroots. I want to be the unity candidate. Ukip

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needs to come together. I'm not going to gild the lily. Ukip is

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looking over a political cliff at the moment. It will either step four

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step back, and I want to tell us to step backwards. You say it faces an

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ex-distension or threat, which means it's possible it has no future at

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all. Students of political history know that political parties take a

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long time to get going. They can disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is

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facing an existential crisis. What happened over the summer has put us

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on a... We could be on a spiral that we can't get off. But I believe I am

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the man to bring the factions together, to create unity within the

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party, and to build on the structure and get us ready for the common

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challenges. Why didn't you stand last time? Because I have spent the

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last four or five years of my life travelling around the country. I

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have done more Ukip meetings than anybody else, spending a lot of time

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away from home. With Brexit, I felt that my job and Nigel's job was done

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and we could hand over to the next generation. That doesn't seem to be

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the case, and maybe it's time for someone who is an old hand. I'm very

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experienced and I know the party inside out. Maybe it's time to step

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in and bring the party together. You told the Liverpool Echo on the night

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of July that you didn't wish to take on Nigel Farage, you didn't want

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that to happen to your family and friends. What has changed? The party

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is facing an existential crisis, and I want to make sure that Ukip is on

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the pitch to keep the ball into the open net we have in politics. We

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have a Conservative Party who is moving toward Brexit, but we have to

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be there too. Why would you be better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne

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would be an excellent candidate. I thought the 2015 manifesto was the

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best out of all the political parties. I would be the best

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candidate because of my experience. I am not part of any faction within

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the party. Is she? I get on well with everybody, and I believe I

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could be the man to bring the party together. Do you get on with Iain

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Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is supporting one of your rivals? Yes,

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I get on well with him. He is able to choose whoever he wants to be the

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next leader of the party. After November 28, the leadership

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election, we all say, the past the past. It becomes Daisy row for the

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new leader. We forget all that has before and move on. You won the

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referendum. Mrs May is adopting some of your policies, like grammar

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schools. What is the point of Ukip these days? Twofold. We don't have

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Brexit. Mrs May said she would not invoke Article 50 until the end of

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March, and we don't know if that will happen. We need to ensure a

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strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit really does mean Brexit. We have a

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huge opportunity in working class communities where the Labour Party

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no longer represents them. I believe Ukip can become the voice of working

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people. If you were the leader, would Ukip be a bigger threat to

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Labour in the north or the Tories in the South? You save Labour in the

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north, and people often to make that mistake. There's working class

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communities right across the country is. There are working-class

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communities in Bristol just as in Newcastle. We are second in a

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number of northern seats, and southern seats as well, and I

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believe the party can move into these communities. It can only do so

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if Ukip is on the pitch, and I intend to make sure that's the case.

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I don't think we have portrayed a good image over the summer. Is that

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called British understatement? A bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to

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move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have to build a strong national Executive

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Committee. We need to ensure our branches are ready for the fight and

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concentrate on local elections. I've got the experience. I'm now throwing

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my hat into the ring, and I'm the only person who can keep Ukip in the

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game. What role would you give Nigel Farage, if any? I will be the

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candidate of compromise. I would see what Nigel wanted to do. Would you

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keep in the leader of the freedom and democracy group in the European

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Parliament? There would have to be compromise on both sides, and we

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would need to talk about it. I don't know what Nigel wants to do. Do you

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think his support, his association with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win

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female votes in this country? Personally, I would not have gone

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out and campaigned or said anything about Donald Trump, but I don't

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think Ukip has come out and backed Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I

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wouldn't have even spoken about the American election, because I think

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the two candidates are quite appalling. Some up for us. If you

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win, what would be the hallmark of your Ukip leadership? The first

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couple of months would be ensuring that Ukip unifies. Saying no to

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factions, bringing people together. Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of

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the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can move forward. If we don't unify,

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Ukip will not be around for much longer. Thanks for being with us

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this morning. We won't have to wait too long

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to find out who Ukip's new leader will be -

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the winner will be announced Who would be the best leader for

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Ukip? I think the difference between the field a few weeks ago and today

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is that this field is a lot stronger. Whether it's Paul or

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Suzanne, I think... It is hard to say, with Aaron Banks and apparently

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Nigel Farage hacking another candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip

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to be a strong force in British politics. I think the fact there is

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a stronger field now is good news for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst

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nightmare in the north of England? It is. I think the personality

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difference and presentational difference is interesting. Suzanne

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Evans is going for the Conservative county vote. There's a lot to be

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taken there by Ukip. He would probably be more appealing to the

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Labour vote. It is interesting. At the moment, pollsters say that the

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Ukip vote splits pretty easily between Labour and Tory. But things

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always collapse. When they have made inroads into Tower Hamlets and

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Barking, they collapse, because they fight amongst each other so much.

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But not always with fists! Does Ukip have a future? And who would best

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secure that future? It does for at least two years, until we Brexit. We

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have to believe that that will happen. That was an impressive pitch

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there from Paul, certainly as the unity candidate, after the car crash

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we have seen on TV screens this morning. But it doesn't go beyond

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May 20 19. What then? There is no point being called the United

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Kingdom Independence party any longer. What will happen after May

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2019? If you want to hoover up votes of the back of Brexit, you need to

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start looking further ahead than two years. The person who wins that

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leadership contest is the person who will sum that up the best. We shall

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see. In June 2014, the group which calls

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itself the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant captured Iraq's

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second city, Mosul. Later that month the group announced

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it was establishing a 'caliphate', or an Islamic state,

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on the territories it This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided

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by Iranian-backed Shia fighters, Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air

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support, began the assault Then they spot a truck bomb

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from so-called Islamic State. They destroy it before

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it destroys them. These are the first steps

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in the battle for Mosul, the Northern Iraqi city IS has

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made its stronghold since 2014. Controlling the city of around

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2 million people means that they established governance,

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they establish a territorial base. This is what has obsessed everyone,

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because with a territorial base you are capable of doing more

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than if you are simply an insurgency movement in the fabric

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of another society. It's being billed as the biggest

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military operation in Iraq since the war in 2003, the biggest

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moment in the international effort Here is how the various forces

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are approaching the city. Heading to Mosul from the south,

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the elite troops of the Iraqi army. Known as the Golden division,

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trained and accompanied From the North, a force made up

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of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga, Also from the South,

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a militia made up of Shia fighters who have been accused

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of human rights abuses. British planes have bombed outlying

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villages, reportedly guided in by British personnel

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on the ground. To the North West, a corridor

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has been left for some of the 3000 plus IS fighters,

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in theory an escape route which could limit the bloodshed

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when fighting starts in the city. We've had 4-5 days of battle

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and it's taking place in the outlying villages

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and there have been some successes and some failures,

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but the momentum is building. And the real question will be

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when the attackers get towards the city itself,

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how strong are the defences? It will crack but it might crack

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within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks. IS has fought back,

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on Friday they attack sites in the city of Kirkuk,

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including a power station. The United Nations believes hundreds

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of thousands of families have been rounded up

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as potential human shields. The battle could be bloody,

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but what about when it's over? The Shia militias, the Iraqi army,

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the Peshmerga guerrillas, some of the Turkish elements,

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they all want a share of the action. They are in Mosul, not

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for altruistic reasons. They are there because they want

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to be part of whatever happens next. The biggest issue is how the Sunni

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majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia militias which have

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helped to liberate them. ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis

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Humphrey went to Mosul If it all seems like something

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from the archive, when the Middle East went up in flames

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and was then carved up, it is because that is what is

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happening in Iraq right now. National identity has been cut

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across by other identities such And that means that putting together

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a so-called nation state again Almost certainly there will be

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a new form of Kurdish state, almost certainly in northern Iraq

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at the end of this crisis, and what is happening in Mosul

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is a microcosm of what is happening elsewhere across the Levant

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which is that it is melting down. Big questions, questions that

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come after the battle. The coalition forces are advancing

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but this is just the beginning. I'm joined now by the International

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Development Minister Rory Stewart. In a former life he was

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the coalition Deputy-Governor of two provinces in Southern Iraq following

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the Iraq intervention of 2003. Is there any doubt that at

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stage Mosul will fall to the forces of Iraq and its allies? The first

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thing is that war is very uncertain and there are cliches about it being

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the graveyard of predictions and we don't want to make confident

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predictions but the basic structure is that there are 30,000 Iraqi

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forces outside and only a few thousand Daesh fighters inside and I

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would say it is overwhelmingly likely that the batter will one

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STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the Iraqi forces.

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June 2014 was a great success, they took a city of over in people and

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they created what they tried to create a million state of 7 million

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people, stretching across the Iraqi Syrian border, but since then they

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have lost territory quite rapidly. Now they are losing the outskirts of

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have lost territory quite rapidly. Mosul, and that is a fundamental

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blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is

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what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that

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will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary

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Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi

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forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of

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Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which

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is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we

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want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.

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Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the

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border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of

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that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the

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coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is

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likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street

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to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we

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doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is

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very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone

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into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps

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around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, ?40

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million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms

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of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response

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budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we

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are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is

:19:17.:19:21.

that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this

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assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You

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are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning

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since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --

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planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the

:19:41.:19:44.

appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we

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need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in

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place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is

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continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.

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The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big

:20:00.:20:03.

exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist

:20:04.:20:09.

magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a

:20:10.:20:14.

unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios, it

:20:15.:20:18.

could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out

:20:19.:20:20.

of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is

:20:21.:20:26.

very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and

:20:27.:20:29.

keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring

:20:30.:20:33.

them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been

:20:34.:20:37.

working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we

:20:38.:20:41.

have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have

:20:42.:20:47.

worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their

:20:48.:20:51.

structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have

:20:52.:20:54.

done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the

:20:55.:20:59.

British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming

:21:00.:21:05.

that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt

:21:06.:21:11.

with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be

:21:12.:21:16.

crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need

:21:17.:21:22.

to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as

:21:23.:21:27.

bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by

:21:28.:21:31.

the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is

:21:32.:21:38.

that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they

:21:39.:21:41.

have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is

:21:42.:21:47.

stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making

:21:48.:21:52.

sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is

:21:53.:21:56.

making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK's

:21:57.:22:01.

response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that

:22:02.:22:07.

is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the

:22:08.:22:11.

front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to

:22:12.:22:15.

make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that

:22:16.:22:19.

population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing

:22:20.:22:26.

territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we

:22:27.:22:31.

think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part

:22:32.:22:37.

of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult

:22:38.:22:41.

across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United

:22:42.:22:47.

Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real

:22:48.:22:53.

danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last

:22:54.:22:57.

five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop

:22:58.:23:03.

often it does unexpected things. In 2009 its predecessor had been

:23:04.:23:08.

largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it

:23:09.:23:12.

went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it

:23:13.:23:16.

holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it

:23:17.:23:19.

gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else

:23:20.:23:23.

and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They

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say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a

:23:29.:23:34.

big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we

:23:35.:23:36.

keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say. --

:23:37.:23:48.

safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in

:23:49.:23:51.

Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen

:23:52.:23:58.

in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the

:23:59.:24:01.

conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much

:24:02.:24:04.

energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the

:24:05.:24:09.

humanitarian response in place -- put so much energy. People will want

:24:10.:24:14.

to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to

:24:15.:24:17.

make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking

:24:18.:24:21.

after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they

:24:22.:24:24.

have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why

:24:25.:24:30.

our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals

:24:31.:24:33.

with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.

:24:34.:24:40.

I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.

:24:41.:24:48.

Does Labour support British participation in this offensive? We

:24:49.:24:59.

fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important

:25:00.:25:04.

move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the

:25:05.:25:10.

government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State

:25:11.:25:13.

this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF

:25:14.:25:19.

pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces

:25:20.:25:23.

on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if

:25:24.:25:28.

you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your

:25:29.:25:35.

leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.

:25:36.:25:37.

What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi

:25:38.:25:39.

government, and currently supported by the British government.

:25:40.:25:41.

I did not support it when it came up.

:25:42.:25:43.

Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most

:25:44.:25:47.

of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we

:25:48.:25:50.

He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been

:25:51.:25:59.

very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have

:26:00.:26:03.

learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt

:26:04.:26:08.

sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the

:26:09.:26:12.

aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was

:26:13.:26:18.

from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told

:26:19.:26:25.

the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air

:26:26.:26:29.

strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in

:26:30.:26:33.

Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face

:26:34.:26:36.

the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.

:26:37.:26:41.

We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it

:26:42.:26:48.

is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic

:26:49.:26:53.

State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is

:26:54.:26:57.

he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the

:26:58.:27:03.

past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,

:27:04.:27:07.

both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also

:27:08.:27:09.

in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you

:27:10.:27:15.

mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress

:27:16.:27:19.

with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do

:27:20.:27:25.

you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to

:27:26.:27:36.

read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the

:27:37.:27:45.

car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems

:27:46.:27:53.

they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to

:27:54.:27:58.

pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have

:27:59.:28:01.

become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer

:28:02.:28:06.

interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to

:28:07.:28:12.

the renewal of Trident? It will. We made that commitment in 2007, that

:28:13.:28:16.

is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies

:28:17.:28:19.

and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken

:28:20.:28:24.

democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference

:28:25.:28:27.

and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy

:28:28.:28:36.

Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,

:28:37.:28:39.

but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the

:28:40.:28:42.

international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very

:28:43.:28:49.

clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the

:28:50.:28:53.

next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of

:28:54.:28:58.

Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a

:28:59.:29:01.

very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are

:29:02.:29:06.

reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can't

:29:07.:29:13.

change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues

:29:14.:29:16.

related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can't

:29:17.:29:23.

change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to

:29:24.:29:28.

Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It

:29:29.:29:32.

is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato

:29:33.:29:35.

allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not

:29:36.:29:40.

let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the

:29:41.:29:43.

way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be

:29:44.:29:48.

taking them to international court over this, but we should also be

:29:49.:29:51.

taking them to international court strengthening sanctions, somewhat

:29:52.:29:57.

imposed over Ukraine. We try to do that, but the Italians wouldn't let

:29:58.:30:02.

us. The Italians did not want to participate in the European

:30:03.:30:03.

initiative but that doesn't stop individual countries for the Britain

:30:04.:30:10.

should step up? Yes, we should look at what is practical to impose.

:30:11.:30:13.

Thanks for joining us. Mosul is not the only major battle

:30:14.:30:18.

being waged in the Middle East. The city of Aleppo in northern Syria

:30:19.:30:21.

has seen some of the heaviest bombardment since Syria's

:30:22.:30:25.

five-year-long civil war began. This week Russian warships,

:30:26.:30:28.

in a deliberate show of power, sailed west through the English

:30:29.:30:31.

channel en route to Syria. Nato says it's Russia's "largest

:30:32.:30:35.

surface deployment" since the end of the Cold War in what is thought

:30:36.:30:38.

to be preparation for a final assault

:30:39.:30:41.

on the besieged city of Aleppo. In the city itself fighting

:30:42.:30:45.

resumed overnight - following a 3-day ceasefire -

:30:46.:30:49.

with more air strikes and heavy clashes in the city's

:30:50.:30:54.

rebel-held eastern districts. Almost 500 people have been

:30:55.:30:57.

killed and 2,000 injured since Syrian government forces,

:30:58.:31:00.

backed by Russian air strikes, This week Theresa May condemned

:31:01.:31:04.

Vladimir Putin's involvement in Syria, accusing Moscow

:31:05.:31:11.

of being behind "sickening atrocities" in support

:31:12.:31:14.

of President Assad's regime. But European leaders are divided

:31:15.:31:17.

on how to respond and, with the United States preoccupied

:31:18.:31:21.

with domestic politics, President Putin senses this

:31:22.:31:24.

is his moment to bring the Syrian I'm joined now by the BBC's former

:31:25.:31:28.

Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent, Bridget Kendall, who is now Master

:31:29.:31:36.

of Peterhouse College in Cambridge. Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC

:31:37.:31:49.

studio again. Let me put up this satellite image of Aleppo here, to

:31:50.:31:56.

get an idea of the scale. It was the biggest city in Syria. It was the

:31:57.:32:01.

commercial capital and a huge cultural hub as well. Almost the New

:32:02.:32:06.

York of Syria, to give you an idea of its significance to the country.

:32:07.:32:11.

Let me show you now how it's been divided. The rebels are now in

:32:12.:32:16.

control of the eastern part, about eight miles long and three miles

:32:17.:32:23.

wide there, they're in purple. They are under great attacks still. Is it

:32:24.:32:27.

inevitable that that purple part falls to the regime? That is what

:32:28.:32:36.

President as Saad, the Russians and the Iranians hope. The fierce

:32:37.:32:42.

bombardments we have seen is part of that. I'm reminded very much in the

:32:43.:32:46.

Russian tactics of what happened in grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when

:32:47.:32:51.

the Russians said, a warning for all civilians to lead, and then they

:32:52.:32:57.

went ahead and they basically raised it to the ground. They are talking

:32:58.:33:02.

about Al Nusrah as being one of the rebel groups. They got rid of all of

:33:03.:33:08.

the terrorists. They talk about it being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The

:33:09.:33:12.

purpose of going in is to get rid of them. You get the civilians out and

:33:13.:33:16.

then you take it. But this isn't like Chechnya. It is much more

:33:17.:33:21.

complex. We have seen an attempt to take Aleppo before, and then there

:33:22.:33:26.

was a rebel counter offensive. It's not so certain. And there are so

:33:27.:33:30.

many different parties involved. We have seen the alarm in the west of

:33:31.:33:34.

the extent of the civilian casualties. There have been

:33:35.:33:36.

rumblings in the west of, the United States do something?

:33:37.:33:46.

Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air force? This Russian aircraft carrier

:33:47.:33:50.

steaming its way towards the Eastern Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture,

:33:51.:33:55.

both to its own people, but also to the West, to say, don't get involved

:33:56.:34:01.

in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try and stop us because we could up the

:34:02.:34:08.

ante. They have not been great visual pictures, because the

:34:09.:34:12.

aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped out, belching out smoke! If the

:34:13.:34:18.

rebel controlled area does fall, it would be seen as a great victory for

:34:19.:34:23.

President as Saad and his Russian allies. What is the aim of Russia

:34:24.:34:28.

here? What would they then do, if Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan

:34:29.:34:33.

that President Putin set out in his UN speech in 2014, before Russia

:34:34.:34:39.

went into Syria. The aim is to put President Assad back in charge.

:34:40.:34:43.

President Putin said this weekend that either is Assad in Damascus, or

:34:44.:34:48.

its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in between. They want to eliminate the

:34:49.:34:53.

argument for a moderate opposition. They want to make it plain that the

:34:54.:34:58.

only way to get a stable Syria is to have Assad back in charge. Even sue

:34:59.:35:06.

argue for a rump steak lit, leaving aside what is happening with IAS.

:35:07.:35:15.

They have already said they want to have an enlarged military presence

:35:16.:35:19.

at their bases. And they have a big naval base. It is. It is a chance to

:35:20.:35:27.

push for this when he sees the West is being distracted and divided.

:35:28.:35:33.

Europe and America, by elections and so on. Just before the US elections.

:35:34.:35:38.

The Americans are worried about that, Europeans are being distracted

:35:39.:35:43.

by Brexit. He can push to his maximum advantage now, before there

:35:44.:35:48.

is a new US president. If they do take that part of Aleppo, and that

:35:49.:35:58.

part of northern Syria, does Mr Putin want us to recognise, to

:35:59.:36:03.

admit, that that is now his sphere of influence? I think the rhetoric

:36:04.:36:08.

from the Russians is that they want the West to recognise that they are

:36:09.:36:13.

an equal powerful partner. It's not just the US that runs the writ in

:36:14.:36:18.

the Middle East. Russia is as important as it is. It is engaging

:36:19.:36:24.

with Saudi Arabia and has mended fences with Turkey. Syria is the

:36:25.:36:29.

place from which it can launch its message that it is a big player in

:36:30.:36:34.

the Middle East. Russia wants the West to understand that this isn't a

:36:35.:36:39.

country that was dismembered after the end of the Soviet Union and is

:36:40.:36:44.

now a week. It is back, and it is strong. That is an important

:36:45.:36:50.

message. Looking at the economy. It is in recession. GDP has been

:36:51.:36:54.

falling, partly because of the price of oil. It is highly dependent on

:36:55.:36:58.

hydrocarbons, and is expected to of oil. It is highly dependent on

:36:59.:37:02.

fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how

:37:03.:37:08.

small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It

:37:09.:37:14.

is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years

:37:15.:37:23.

ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?

:37:24.:37:28.

A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a

:37:29.:37:33.

price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting

:37:34.:37:39.

the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which

:37:40.:37:44.

is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and

:37:45.:37:50.

dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.

:37:51.:37:57.

But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are

:37:58.:38:01.

supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2017,

:38:02.:38:06.

because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for

:38:07.:38:11.

the Russian people. Thank you very much.

:38:12.:38:19.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:38:20.:38:21.

Coming up on the programme: Nicola Sturgeon publishes her draft

:38:22.:38:24.

referendum bill and warns Theresa May if there's a hard Brexit

:38:25.:38:27.

there will be another vote on independence.

:38:28.:38:31.

We'll hear from a former SNP leader why he thinks that's

:38:32.:38:34.

The Scottish Greens could scupper another independence referendum.

:38:35.:38:44.

I'll be asking their leader whether they might.

:38:45.:38:46.

And Pravda is coming to Edinburgh.

:38:47.:38:47.

The former leader of the SNP, Gordon Wilson, has warned the party

:38:48.:38:53.

to put its own house in order before going for a second referendum.

:38:54.:38:57.

He fears that, with the IndyRef2 Draft Bill published,

:38:58.:38:59.

there will be those in the party who'll push

:39:00.:39:01.

A message was do not push for independence right now.

:39:02.:39:15.

The reasons against having one is that Scotland potluck Independent is

:39:16.:39:26.

unlikely to win because there a gap between ten point between 45 and 55.

:39:27.:39:31.

Quite narrow territory in which to fight it. Of course if there is

:39:32.:39:34.

another provocation from London which seems to be the case with

:39:35.:39:37.

Theresa May and her ministers being very harsh on the consultation with

:39:38.:39:43.

Scotland, who can tell what the result will be. If you go back to

:39:44.:39:47.

the first referendum, then of course there will be a huge gap to begin

:39:48.:39:52.

with. It started moving in favour of independence when George on spawn

:39:53.:39:55.

was Chancellor of the Exchequer and started threatening Scotland that he

:39:56.:40:03.

could not use the pound. For now, you do not think it should be done.

:40:04.:40:09.

My preference is that over the longer times and we should focus on

:40:10.:40:14.

the narrative of it. Why is God and should have it what the economic

:40:15.:40:18.

advantages would be, what weaknesses we need to resolve in our society,

:40:19.:40:22.

in other words to do the basic homework. People will want to know

:40:23.:40:26.

and want to touch this solution and see if it is solid enough for them

:40:27.:40:31.

to rely on. Of course, beyond that there is a question of identity.

:40:32.:40:35.

That seems to fall into place automatically. There are dangers on

:40:36.:40:40.

there? On an interview on the radio comedies said a second referendum at

:40:41.:40:46.

the moment could be a waste of time. It is more than that, if they lost a

:40:47.:40:50.

second referendum, it would be a waste of time and it would be

:40:51.:40:55.

counter productive. That was me being dogmatic about it. Of course

:40:56.:40:57.

Theresa May faces the same problem. Theresa May faces the same problem.

:40:58.:41:04.

-- diplomatic about it. If she Theresa May carries on in the way

:41:05.:41:09.

she is legible push Scotland towards independence. It is a gamble for

:41:10.:41:16.

both sides. Your golden rule is to not have a referendum and less you

:41:17.:41:21.

know you can win it. That is my preference in business and in life.

:41:22.:41:25.

It is far better to be in a strong position, having laid down the

:41:26.:41:28.

conditions under which it will take place and I think in the current

:41:29.:41:35.

rather difficult situation of Brexit, then it is going to be a

:41:36.:41:39.

very complicated question to answer. And I am not sure it can easily be

:41:40.:41:43.

done over the course of our six-month referendum campaign.

:41:44.:41:47.

Having said that, one of the things you have got to note is the access

:41:48.:41:51.

to the single market. Nicola Sturgeon is pushing the independence

:41:52.:41:55.

line as a means of kicking the British Government into looking at

:41:56.:41:58.

line as a means of kicking the Scotland's needs. Scotland will

:41:59.:42:03.

suffer the pretty badly if the Brexit deal does not look at our

:42:04.:42:08.

particular needs in economy and society. She is quite right.

:42:09.:42:12.

Unfortunately, this. Its people do not show the aim enthusiasm. Because

:42:13.:42:20.

if they showed support for independence and another referendum,

:42:21.:42:22.

then you would find that London's views would change very sharply. Do

:42:23.:42:27.

you think before you have a referendum that 55 or 60% favour in

:42:28.:42:35.

the polls is then you would need? Yes. My figure is like 55 to 60 is

:42:36.:42:43.

safer territory. Like most former politicians I am fairly

:42:44.:42:47.

opportunistic in these matters and things can change radically. At the

:42:48.:42:52.

moment, the consensus view is that we need a bit of a buffer. Do not

:42:53.:42:56.

forget that we are living in tremulous times with the UK pulling

:42:57.:43:01.

out of the European Union. That is both a plus and a minus factor and

:43:02.:43:06.

there are the Scottish economy declining in the last couple of

:43:07.:43:11.

years because of the drop in oil revenues and oil activity affecting

:43:12.:43:15.

jobs. It is not the best of time, but on other hand there are

:43:16.:43:19.

challenges and there are opportunities. One must keep their

:43:20.:43:21.

mind open. You would like a longer opportunities. One must keep their

:43:22.:43:28.

term campaign for independence, not a referendum necessarily. But that

:43:29.:43:32.

to one side. For independence. That campaign should be separated out

:43:33.:43:36.

from the SNP Government, wouldn't you? I think the thing that the SNP

:43:37.:43:43.

has to keep in mind is that the outcome of a referendum may be a

:43:44.:43:49.

vote on it's popularity. The success of the 2014 independence referendum,

:43:50.:43:55.

there was a way in which it brought together all sorts of people out of

:43:56.:44:00.

the dark so to speak and into the political arena. New enthusiasms.

:44:01.:44:05.

They still exist, although I suspect a lot of the phase has gone out of

:44:06.:44:11.

the bottle since. We have to get them together to get the argument as

:44:12.:44:15.

to why Scotland needs independence and so that they consider you to

:44:16.:44:19.

their friends and family and neighbours. Also, the work has to be

:44:20.:44:25.

done. My experience as a member of Parliament for 13 years was I had

:44:26.:44:28.

been naive view of being elected that I had plenty of finding thing.

:44:29.:44:33.

In actual fact, I was on a treadmill had no time to think will stop --

:44:34.:44:44.

plenty of time to think. The running of the management was subcontracted

:44:45.:44:46.

by the SNP. Image of a priority to the question

:44:47.:45:00.

of independence itself. It should be stressed that a referendum is only a

:45:01.:45:05.

means to an end. It is not meant to itself. The end must be independence

:45:06.:45:09.

for the point of view of the nationalist community. We have got

:45:10.:45:15.

to prepare the ground so that people are persuaded that the best possible

:45:16.:45:19.

thing for Scotland in the long run and the middle term is to attain

:45:20.:45:27.

independence. By definition that would involve bringing in other

:45:28.:45:32.

people out of the SNP. One of the reason I am asking you this is that

:45:33.:45:36.

I will be talking later in this programme to Patrick Harvie, the

:45:37.:45:39.

leader of the Scottish Greens. I don't know what he will save, but I

:45:40.:45:43.

know there is a feeling amongst some who are in favour of the

:45:44.:45:48.

independence but are not in the SNP, but they are being a bit patronised

:45:49.:45:52.

and being left out. You might have a solution to that? Yes. I don't

:45:53.:46:07.

think... I have relaxed with the years. There is an example, in the

:46:08.:46:14.

early 70s there was a body called radio free Scotland which was

:46:15.:46:18.

separate from the SNP, but worked alongside it and produced the

:46:19.:46:24.

message. I would think that we don't need to separate bodies, but we

:46:25.:46:25.

message. I would think that we don't need the S and the governing

:46:26.:46:31.

Scotland and giving a good there. -- the S NP governing Scotland. Also

:46:32.:46:38.

the economic and social case for independence. That is where we need

:46:39.:46:43.

to take the voices of other people including people like Patrick Harvie

:46:44.:46:48.

and the Greens. Including many others in various organisations

:46:49.:46:52.

which mushroomed during the referendum. They are still there.

:46:53.:46:57.

They should still be consulted and that should be a strength that that

:46:58.:47:01.

should be. We have to be careful about that because too much

:47:02.:47:04.

independence and that point of view should cause anarchy. There has to

:47:05.:47:11.

be some guidance. The SNP should not be heavy-handed. You said in a radio

:47:12.:47:17.

interview that we did that was broadcast earlier that there was

:47:18.:47:21.

home to be done. We talked a bit about the deficit that Scotland

:47:22.:47:24.

might have should it become independent. I should apologise, I

:47:25.:47:29.

said it was 15% of GDP. It is axing 15 million pounds, it is 10% of GDP.

:47:30.:47:37.

A very big number still. We should talk about how the Scottish

:47:38.:47:41.

Government should head of those objections and have a more balanced

:47:42.:47:45.

budget. I know that you think that the figures don't reflect the state

:47:46.:47:52.

of the Scottish economy. Is woke in that interview that these civil

:47:53.:47:55.

service might be cut back. That is a tiny amount of money, isn't it? The

:47:56.:48:00.

civil service contributes quite a bit of money in itself. The main

:48:01.:48:07.

problem I have with the civil service from experience and looking

:48:08.:48:11.

at it latterly is that it is not all that efficient. I would say that an

:48:12.:48:16.

efficiency drive within the civil service itself, including a drop in

:48:17.:48:22.

numbers, would be desirable, whether or not you had for independence. It

:48:23.:48:28.

is also a bad thing to exist solely on 1's for services. The point I was

:48:29.:48:34.

making was that it may or may not be a good thing to have more efficiency

:48:35.:48:37.

in this double service, but it might not address the deficit problem. It

:48:38.:48:42.

is such a small amount of public spending on the civil service. What

:48:43.:48:45.

people don't realise is that when you take the figures that is the

:48:46.:48:50.

estimate of Scotland boss might budget, which is based upon the fact

:48:51.:48:57.

that the money that is allocated to Scotland is not spent in Scotland.

:48:58.:49:03.

Foreign service, defence, Social Security. Some of it of course is

:49:04.:49:07.

spent in Scotland. There are things that are excluded. What we don't

:49:08.:49:11.

have at the moment is a Scottish budget. I think that Scotland should

:49:12.:49:17.

re-fashion it's budget to suit the realities of independent Scotland.

:49:18.:49:22.

We are not a cutdown party. One more thing I want to do ask you about

:49:23.:49:27.

briefly. At the Lee Mack one point you made earlier was that you said

:49:28.:49:32.

briefly. At the Lee Mack one point that support for independence was

:49:33.:49:36.

27% at the beginning of the referendum campaign on one of your

:49:37.:49:43.

points was that why was it only 27% after seven years of SNP Government.

:49:44.:49:45.

What is your answer to that question that you raise? The reason is fairly

:49:46.:49:51.

simple. The SNP had been preparing for Government over a period of

:49:52.:49:55.

years and in fact, it's way of looking at independence was that it

:49:56.:50:00.

became a Scottish referendum party and then surprisingly found itself a

:50:01.:50:11.

nobility with able to deliver. Most of the gone into the thought of

:50:12.:50:19.

independence and too much money had gone into Government. If your other

:50:20.:50:24.

objective and is independence, then that is exactly. That is exactly the

:50:25.:50:30.

point I'm making for the future. There should be a longer term

:50:31.:50:35.

established in and protection for the case for independence so we

:50:36.:50:38.

don't make the mistake of the 27% as in 2014.

:50:39.:50:45.

As the delegates leave the Scottish Greens conference

:50:46.:50:50.

in Perth this afternoon they'll surely be musing on the party's

:50:51.:50:52.

While supporting the SNP's key objective of independence,

:50:53.:50:55.

they've also committed to finding new ways to wring concessions

:50:56.:50:58.

Relatively small in number, they have six MSPs, the Scottish Green

:50:59.:51:10.

Party are not strangers for fighting to causes close to their hearts.

:51:11.:51:14.

They made a stand on council tax and fracking and then there is the

:51:15.:51:17.

Scottish Government 's backing of a third runway at Heathrow and a cut

:51:18.:51:23.

in air passenger duty, moves which Patrick Harvie described as

:51:24.:51:25.

unthinkable. With the Scottish Greens the only Scottish party in

:51:26.:51:28.

unthinkable. With the Scottish favour of independence they should

:51:29.:51:36.

be in a strong position to win concessions. We would like to see

:51:37.:51:41.

the SNP standing their ground on being progressive, as they claim to

:51:42.:51:45.

be, to get in in previous governments. They have said some

:51:46.:51:48.

good words and done a few good things but there are areas where we

:51:49.:51:51.

need to keep holding their feet to the fire and that is what we will

:51:52.:51:55.

do. There are other policies where we will try a nudge the SNP in the

:51:56.:52:00.

right direction, the progressive direction, away from looking after

:52:01.:52:07.

big business which is tempting for them. Good Green Party support in

:52:08.:52:09.

parliament be conditional? Personally I would put it that way

:52:10.:52:10.

parliament be conditional? but whether that will be party

:52:11.:52:14.

policy I can't comment because I am not involved in that but from a

:52:15.:52:19.

personal point of view I would like to see conditions. The Patrick

:52:20.:52:21.

Harvie message to the SNP is to commit to meaningful progress of

:52:22.:52:25.

changes and you would get our support, failed to commit and you

:52:26.:52:28.

risk being remembered as a timid government.

:52:29.:52:29.

Well, joining me outside his party's conference in Perth

:52:30.:52:31.

is the Scottish Green's co-convener Patrick Harvie.

:52:32.:52:38.

I was going to say how blessed you are being in the fair city but it

:52:39.:52:46.

appears to be raining! Well, we have had mixed weather in Perth, to be

:52:47.:52:51.

fair, but there has been a very good atmosphere inside the conference,

:52:52.:52:54.

not only as we celebrate the election of our additional MSPs in

:52:55.:52:58.

the most recent Holyrood election but prepare as well for the local

:52:59.:53:02.

elections next year where we will be fielding the biggest number of

:53:03.:53:05.

candidates ever and with the capacity we have grown across the

:53:06.:53:08.

country to get out and campaign on a scale that has been lacking in the

:53:09.:53:13.

past so we are really optimistic about the achievement of getting

:53:14.:53:21.

more councillors elected right about the achievement of getting

:53:22.:53:23.

across Scotland. Can I get your view on something that Gordon Wilson was

:53:24.:53:25.

talking about there, where he is keen on the idea of separating a

:53:26.:53:28.

campaign for independence from the SNP running the Scottish Government

:53:29.:53:32.

and he talked about having perhaps initially a think tank, something

:53:33.:53:35.

that is independent of the SNP, which would involve people like

:53:36.:53:38.

yourselves. Presumably you would welcome that. I would welcome a kind

:53:39.:53:44.

of development. One of the challenge is to get over in that is how you

:53:45.:53:49.

would ensure that the multiple arguments, the many cases on

:53:50.:53:54.

independence would be heard within that, rather than just one dominant

:53:55.:53:58.

voice. That was one of the problems of the 2014 campaign which we have

:53:59.:54:05.

said openly in the past. The diversity of arguments about what an

:54:06.:54:08.

independent Scotland could be light is one of the strengths and a

:54:09.:54:14.

democratic system. We should be celebrating diversity arguments as a

:54:15.:54:16.

strength in our culture, not regarding it as a weakness. There

:54:17.:54:21.

are different arguments to be made about what kind of policies or

:54:22.:54:26.

directions or economic futures the idea of an independent Scotland

:54:27.:54:30.

could encompass. Just look at the question of oil and gas. We have

:54:31.:54:34.

been arguing consistently that investment in a sustainable and

:54:35.:54:38.

long-term economy that can provide jobs that last for the long-term is

:54:39.:54:43.

an urgent priority, instead of just pretending Matfield is coming to the

:54:44.:54:47.

end of their lives will somehow lost for ever. That is not realistic.

:54:48.:54:51.

end of their lives will somehow lost With your extra MSPs, which you were

:54:52.:54:55.

very quick to mention, the Scottish Greens have an incredibly powerful

:54:56.:54:59.

position in this Parliament. You have been talking at this conference

:55:00.:55:03.

about how your support for the SNP budget would be conditional on

:55:04.:55:08.

various things like fracking and air passenger duty but it is not the

:55:09.:55:11.

real power you have. The real power you have is that they cannot have

:55:12.:55:15.

another independence referendum unless you back them. I think it

:55:16.:55:23.

would be quite wrong for any political party to use the fact of

:55:24.:55:28.

minority government as something to start playing games like that. I am

:55:29.:55:32.

not going to trade off our support for a policy that we agree with in

:55:33.:55:37.

exchange for completely different issues. The case needs to be

:55:38.:55:40.

strengthened for independence, and I would agree with Gordon Wilson on

:55:41.:55:45.

that point although I do not think I would agree with all the arguments

:55:46.:55:51.

he might want to put, but the case needs to be strengthened.

:55:52.:55:54.

Fundamentally this is a conflict between two referendum results. Let

:55:55.:56:03.

us come that a moment. The real power you have is that you can say

:56:04.:56:08.

to the SNP government, if you abolish air passenger duty we won't

:56:09.:56:13.

vote for a seven part around -- separate referendum. If you don't

:56:14.:56:17.

abolish fracking we won't vote for a separate referendum. I've always

:56:18.:56:20.

understood that independence for you as a more tactical thing and it is

:56:21.:56:24.

not your obsession but it is a way of getting the green policies you

:56:25.:56:29.

want, so why subordinate the green policies you want and turn

:56:30.:56:31.

independence into some kind of principal? The idea of Scotland

:56:32.:56:38.

becoming independent is absolutely a means to an end, and means of

:56:39.:56:44.

achieving the Sarah Scotland we would be more able to deliver with

:56:45.:56:48.

the powers of independence. It is not a bargaining chip. Why not?

:56:49.:56:56.

Because I think it would be at Tiley unethical way to do politics. We

:56:57.:57:02.

will argue the case on fracking, as we have done, and pushed the

:57:03.:57:06.

Scottish Government to add underground gas to that moratoria

:57:07.:57:10.

manned ban it altogether but I am confident that working alongside all

:57:11.:57:13.

of those who support a ban on fracking we will achieve that. The

:57:14.:57:18.

Tories piping up and say how brilliant fracking would-be helps to

:57:19.:57:22.

make our case for that. On the budget we are going to argue for

:57:23.:57:26.

progressive taxation and make sure that we can protect the public

:57:27.:57:29.

services that we need to value in Scotland. Why would you block their

:57:30.:57:35.

budget but not their referendum? It is on the referendum that you have

:57:36.:57:38.

the power. Unless they give in to what you want they simply can't have

:57:39.:57:43.

it. You have immense leadership when it comes to the referendum. They

:57:44.:57:46.

will find people in other parties it comes to the referendum. They

:57:47.:57:49.

support them on their budget but only you can deliver their

:57:50.:57:55.

referendum. I think it remains to be seen whether they find more support

:57:56.:57:59.

on the budget and a new Finance secretary will have to give some

:58:00.:58:02.

ground from the SNP 's manifesto position if he wants to persuade

:58:03.:58:06.

others to support the budget. The idea that we would drop a policy

:58:07.:58:12.

that we support, the idea of supporting independence or putting

:58:13.:58:13.

that we support, the idea of that to the electorate on the basis

:58:14.:58:18.

of a grubby deal about other issues, I don't think that would be

:58:19.:58:22.

principle that all. But we have a pro-conflict between the way

:58:23.:58:26.

Scotland voted in 2014 and 2016. I know and respect that not everyone

:58:27.:58:29.

who voted remain this year will suddenly want to switch and --

:58:30.:58:33.

support independence but we have to respect the fact that not everyone

:58:34.:58:38.

who voted no in 2014 is willing to sit Scotland dragged out of Europe

:58:39.:58:42.

against our will, surrendering rights, having rights taken away

:58:43.:58:45.

from people that we did not vote to surrender. 62% of us voted to remain

:58:46.:58:52.

in that mandate is being utterly disregarded by the UK Government and

:58:53.:58:56.

I think the case is strong that the people of Scotland to need at least

:58:57.:58:59.

the possibility of having that question put to them so that they

:59:00.:59:03.

can resolve that conflict in the only way that is legitimate, a

:59:04.:59:08.

democratic process, and the vote of all people, including the people who

:59:09.:59:11.

were denied a vote in the EU referendum and EU nationals whose

:59:12.:59:16.

lives are in turmoil as a result of that. Isn't your argument there from

:59:17.:59:22.

a democratic point of view a bit iffy? To say that somehow or other a

:59:23.:59:25.

a democratic point of view a bit pretty clear referendum vote that

:59:26.:59:29.

was made two years ago is now cast into doubt? It is patronising to the

:59:30.:59:34.

people of Scotland. Many people who voted no will say, I'm sorry, we

:59:35.:59:38.

understood perfectly well what we voted for, we want to be part of the

:59:39.:59:42.

United Kingdom and for you to start claiming that somehow we didn't know

:59:43.:59:46.

what we were doing and therefore we have to vote again, sorry, we are

:59:47.:59:52.

not having it. I don't think for a moment that people didn't know what

:59:53.:59:56.

they were doing. We had a long and engaging debate in the long run up

:59:57.:00:00.

to that campaign but the reality is if you voted no and then you voted

:00:01.:00:06.

remain, you are not going to get what you want. We have to resolve

:00:07.:00:10.

this fundamental conflict and there will be many people who voted no who

:00:11.:00:14.

are willing to leave the European Union, but there are also people who

:00:15.:00:18.

voted no who believed better together when they said that VoIP --

:00:19.:00:23.

voting yes would put our future in Europe at rest and voting there

:00:24.:00:26.

would safeguard it. That was a piece of nonsense as many of the lies of

:00:27.:00:31.

the league campaign this year were shown to be utterly spurious

:00:32.:00:36.

nonsense is oh there is a real conflict, fundamental conflict,

:00:37.:00:39.

between the results of the way people in Scotland voted in these

:00:40.:00:43.

two referendums. Your argument might have some credibility if there had

:00:44.:00:47.

been a big upsurge in the polls in favour of either having a second

:00:48.:00:51.

referendum or voted for independence, but there hasn't been,

:00:52.:00:59.

so a lot of people in Scotland will say, thank you very much for

:01:00.:01:01.

sympathising with our alleged democratic deficit that you are just

:01:02.:01:04.

making this up and we are not interested. I think the polls are

:01:05.:01:20.

showing there has been movement in real directions. The UK Government

:01:21.:01:24.

are taking a 52% result across the UK and turning it into a mandate for

:01:25.:01:28.

Art Brexit and taking us out not only of the European Union itself

:01:29.:01:33.

but also out of the single market with all the economic consequences

:01:34.:01:36.

that will have four people's jobs and incomes and coal industries. We

:01:37.:01:41.

have just been speaking to some of the higher education sector in

:01:42.:01:44.

Scotland here at the conference who are deeply concerned about the level

:01:45.:01:49.

of interest from EU students coming to study here and their ability to

:01:50.:01:59.

cooperate and collaborate with higher education institutions in

:02:00.:02:00.

terms of research grants and funding. Scotland has made a

:02:01.:02:02.

fantastic contribution to a lot of those projects and that kind of

:02:03.:02:05.

thing is being put at risk and as people see the consequences of that

:02:06.:02:08.

hard Brexit, of Liam Fox and Boris Johnson and others who have no

:02:09.:02:11.

regard at all for the way Scotland voted, that is what they have been

:02:12.:02:16.

aiming for and we will reject that. Going back to the beginning of this

:02:17.:02:20.

conversation, there seems to be an acceptance within the SNP that some

:02:21.:02:24.

aspects for the prospectus of independence, including the

:02:25.:02:27.

currency, were not really convincing enough. We have had the collapse in

:02:28.:02:32.

oil prices and the risk of a large deficit in Scotland. Everyone is

:02:33.:02:36.

saying these issues must be addressed but the problem seems to

:02:37.:02:40.

be that they are not, as a matter of fact being addressed, are they? We

:02:41.:02:45.

are not getting answers. Well, the Scottish Green Party I think are the

:02:46.:02:48.

only party who made any credible effort to suggest a credible

:02:49.:02:53.

economic path of Scotland that ends our reliance on fossil fuels but

:02:54.:02:56.

invest in economies and industries that will create the jobs that

:02:57.:03:00.

communities, particularly those most reliant on fossil fuels, they need

:03:01.:03:06.

to see a positive future rather than, as with previous ways of

:03:07.:03:11.

deindustrialisation, people being left on the economic scrapheap. We

:03:12.:03:14.

are also trying to do work and we will continue that this year on the

:03:15.:03:16.

are also trying to do work and we alternatives of currency but the

:03:17.:03:19.

idea of a currency union with a non-EU member state, if we were to

:03:20.:03:23.

become independent and seek to be a full EU member, I think that is even

:03:24.:03:28.

more problematic than it was in 2014 so I am glad there is some

:03:29.:03:36.

willingness to start finally looking at laying the groundwork for the

:03:37.:03:39.

other options that need to be made credible and need to be made

:03:40.:03:42.

realistic options for Scotland. We have to leave it there. Thank you

:03:43.:03:43.

very much. Russian warships have been

:03:44.:03:51.

in the English Channel this week, in what some have seen

:03:52.:03:53.

as a display of power. But Russia is also interested

:03:54.:03:56.

in getting its world view So we've seen an expansion

:03:57.:03:58.

in so called "soft power" too, with new state controlled media

:03:59.:04:02.

outlets broadcasting And there've been reports

:04:03.:04:03.

in the past few days that something called Pravda International,

:04:04.:04:07.

apparently a successor to the once-powerful

:04:08.:04:09.

Communist newspaper, Pravda was once the voice of the

:04:10.:04:21.

Soviet Communist Party. If you read it in Tempra temperament grow one,

:04:22.:04:23.

you knew it was what they were thinking in the Kremlin, probably.

:04:24.:04:29.

If it was in Pravda, you knew that is what they wanted you to think

:04:30.:04:32.

they were thinking in the Kremlin but what they were thinking could

:04:33.:04:38.

sometimes be slightly different. But the break-up of the Soviet Union

:04:39.:04:44.

changed everything for everyone, and for Pravda. Pravda failed to appear

:04:45.:04:48.

today for the first time since the 1917 revolution. It was split into

:04:49.:04:56.

two. There was a Pravda newspaper publication and also an online

:04:57.:05:00.

Pravda and there was a dispute about who earned the name and there was a

:05:01.:05:03.

court case and the court said that both entities could coexist.

:05:04.:05:08.

Sputnik, funded by the Russian government recently set up in

:05:09.:05:12.

Edinburgh, so it didn't seem too surprising when it was reported that

:05:13.:05:17.

a new version of Pravda, Pravda International was also going to

:05:18.:05:20.

establish a newsroom in the capital. There is a clear emphasis on

:05:21.:05:26.

presenting the Russian viewpoint and the Russian perspective so they

:05:27.:05:28.

presenting the Russian viewpoint and invested heavily in foreign news,

:05:29.:05:31.

Sputnik publishes its languages in Sputnik publishes its languages in

:05:32.:05:35.

-- articles on a number of languages which is all part of sending out

:05:36.:05:39.

messages and getting the Russian message across and most people refer

:05:40.:05:43.

to that as Russian soft power. Was it true? One of the first things

:05:44.:05:48.

that struck me was no one was talking about in the Russian media.

:05:49.:05:51.

This story got coverage in the Scottish media but it also got her a

:05:52.:05:57.

little bit of attention down south in the Guardian and the times. The

:05:58.:06:01.

Russian media normally pays quite close interest in what is happening

:06:02.:06:05.

in England and the rest of the UK and so it was quite strange they

:06:06.:06:11.

hadn't picked up on it. Trying to check out the details, starting with

:06:12.:06:15.

the Pravda International website and it gets order and order. When I went

:06:16.:06:20.

on to that website I found there were a lot of Hollywood celebrities

:06:21.:06:25.

reading a Russian newspaper but it was not Pravda, it was an obscure

:06:26.:06:28.

but eventually newspaper and there was an interesting story behind it.

:06:29.:06:32.

These photos were real but I thought they might have been photo shopped,

:06:33.:06:35.

but they were real and they were taken by a Hollywood producer and

:06:36.:06:39.

his wife who happen to come from a root skewer little town and they had

:06:40.:06:45.

done it has a weird publicity stunt. The photos were real but why they

:06:46.:06:48.

were on the website of Pravda International was strange and it set

:06:49.:06:51.

my mind thinking that it looks like a bit of a hoax.

:06:52.:06:59.

And let this story that is nothing more than smoke and mirrors?

:07:00.:07:04.

Brothers say it is nothing to do do with them. Neither do the people

:07:05.:07:11.

that we have been able to trace who are linked to Pravda International.

:07:12.:07:20.

More recently, the spat between the Russian international and the bank.

:07:21.:07:25.

Some people have interpreted this as a attempt to silence Russian

:07:26.:07:32.

opinion. This could potentially be a way for people to say it is not that

:07:33.:07:39.

easy to quieten Russian opinion. There remains a possibility that

:07:40.:07:44.

just perhaps there is some proof behind this story. It could not and

:07:45.:07:48.

it still cannot completely be ruled out that there is a genuine

:07:49.:07:54.

initiative here from people connected to the Pravda brand. It

:07:55.:08:00.

seems unlikely. There is an old Soviet joke. There are two main

:08:01.:08:05.

newspapers in the Soviet Union. There is one that means news and one

:08:06.:08:10.

that means truth. Soviet citizens is to say that there is no truth in one

:08:11.:08:15.

and no news in the other. Time now for a look

:08:16.:08:18.

at the week ahead. I'm joined now by political

:08:19.:08:26.

commentator Hamish Macdonell and Jenni Davidson of Holyrood

:08:27.:08:30.

Magazine. Let us start by looking ahead. This

:08:31.:08:43.

meeting tomorrow with Nicola Sturgeon and the other nations of

:08:44.:08:47.

the UK, including Theresa May. What we expect to happen? For the first

:08:48.:08:52.

time, it is no exaggeration to say these are crunch talks. They are

:08:53.:08:56.

very important. The opportunity that Nicola Sturgeon has two sets of the

:08:57.:09:05.

Scottish view to Theresa May. We cannot expect anything to come from

:09:06.:09:12.

it. We know where the British Government sands. It really is an

:09:13.:09:19.

occasion for both sides to get into a room together and know where they

:09:20.:09:23.

are come out and say we had a decent discussion but more talks will have

:09:24.:09:26.

to take place. Do you think these talks are five able to be fudged in

:09:27.:09:35.

any way? It is quite difficult. If they had been more moderate and how

:09:36.:09:38.

they put forward their positions, then that might have been the case.

:09:39.:09:42.

Now Nicola Sturgeon has any set a red line in terms of what she wants.

:09:43.:09:47.

Or else, it is another independence referendum. Because Theresa May and

:09:48.:09:51.

David Davis have both said they are not giving this, then that is very

:09:52.:09:56.

difficult to back down from. I am not sure how they are going to go

:09:57.:09:59.

into negotiations from this point well they have 07 what they want.

:10:00.:10:08.

There are possibilities other not? I have counted three different things.

:10:09.:10:14.

One, there has been talk that the British Government might pay into

:10:15.:10:19.

the budget if they can have the passport in rights for financial

:10:20.:10:22.

services. This means that banks will not have the setup in London and do

:10:23.:10:31.

business all across Europe. There is allsorts of talk for special

:10:32.:10:34.

provisions for Northern Ireland because of the border with the

:10:35.:10:36.

Republic. There has also been talk after the meeting Theresa May had

:10:37.:10:46.

after the owner of Mr -- Nissan. That may be that it could be paid

:10:47.:10:52.

into the car budget. There is a bit of grit therefore Nicola Sturgeon to

:10:53.:10:57.

get into their and say there is not much difference between this and

:10:58.:11:01.

what we are saying about Scotland. Yes, there would be if Nicola

:11:02.:11:03.

Sturgeon had not been so strong about the position she had taken.

:11:04.:11:10.

She says that she wants access to the singer market, full protection

:11:11.:11:14.

for Scottish residents and free movement of labour. If we just think

:11:15.:11:24.

for a second that these are two friendly sides want to reach a

:11:25.:11:25.

copper mines, then a comprised could friendly sides want to reach a

:11:26.:11:31.

be reached. We might not have Scotland in the single market, but

:11:32.:11:37.

we might have it more in it than other parts of the UK. If we were

:11:38.:11:41.

talking about two Unionist administrations then perhaps we

:11:42.:11:46.

could be. But we're talking about a Scottish Government that have the

:11:47.:11:50.

dark hour red line issues and if we do not get them they are our red

:11:51.:11:58.

line issues. If it does not deliver those things, Nicola Sturgeon has no

:11:59.:12:02.

choice but to go to the people game because she has said that that is

:12:03.:12:07.

what she will do. Do you agree with that? Isn't there some room? I do

:12:08.:12:16.

yeah. Of course that I was making maximum demands because that is the

:12:17.:12:19.

sensible thing to do when you start a negotiation. She could say I have

:12:20.:12:24.

got this and that but it is not exact what we have asked for but you

:12:25.:12:29.

can't always got what you want. I agree with Hamish. It was a

:12:30.:12:33.

different party, a Unionist party, she could say this is my starting

:12:34.:12:36.

point for negotiations. Something less is OK. Because she did -- is

:12:37.:12:46.

already under parties pressure to deliver a second referendum, then

:12:47.:12:56.

she cannot back down if you does not get what she wants. It will be

:12:57.:12:59.

difficult. She gathers and off, but she has to deliver. That track she

:13:00.:13:10.

can put it off. She will be saying thanks for nothing, mate. Gordon

:13:11.:13:16.

Wilson represents an important strand. He says: also let us not

:13:17.:13:22.

rush into this. I was at the SNP conference a week or two ago. A few

:13:23.:13:27.

people said that if we get this wrong and rush into this then we are

:13:28.:13:33.

finished. That is the line Gordon Wilson are saying. Let us not rush

:13:34.:13:38.

into this. Take the time and make sure we get it right. If we get that

:13:39.:13:41.

wrong then it will be finished. Thank you very much.

:13:42.:13:43.

I'll be back at the same time next week.

:13:44.:13:48.

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