18/12/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


18/12/2016

Andrew discusses Brexit with former Conservative health secretary Stephen Dorrell and Australian high commissioner Alexander Downer, and looks at the issue of air pollution.


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LineFromTo

Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:40.:00:41.

Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.

:00:42.:00:43.

Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum

:00:44.:00:46.

by forcing a second vote before we leave?

:00:47.:00:49.

Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be

:00:50.:00:52.

pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".

:00:53.:00:56.

Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business

:00:57.:00:59.

It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"

:01:00.:01:05.

but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,

:01:06.:01:08.

Also coming up: Alex Salmond tells of the things the

:01:09.:01:20.

Scottish Government could call a second independence referendum and

:01:21.:01:21.

win it. And with me in the Sunday Politics

:01:22.:01:28.

grotto, the Dasher, Dancer and Prancer of political

:01:29.:01:32.

punditry Iain Martin, They'll be delivering tweets

:01:33.:01:35.

throughout the programme. First this morning,

:01:36.:01:43.

some say they will fight for what they call a "soft Brexit",

:01:44.:01:49.

but now there's an attempt by those who campaigned for Britain to remain

:01:50.:01:53.

in the EU to allow the British people to change their minds -

:01:54.:01:56.

possibly with a second referendum - The Labour MEP Richard Corbett

:01:57.:01:59.

is revealed this morning to have tried to amend European

:02:00.:02:02.

Parliament resolutions. The original resolution called

:02:03.:02:04.

on the European Parliament to "respect the will

:02:05.:02:07.

of the majority of the citizens of the United Kingdom

:02:08.:02:10.

to leave the EU". He also proposed removing

:02:11.:02:26.

the wording "stress that this wish must be respected" and adding

:02:27.:02:31.

"while taking account of the 48.1% The amendments were

:02:32.:02:34.

proposed in October, but were rejected by a vote

:02:35.:02:46.

in the Brussels Constitutional Affairs Committee

:02:47.:02:49.

earlier this month. The report will be voted

:02:50.:02:51.

on by all MEPs in February. Well, joining me now from Leeds

:02:52.:02:53.

is the Labour MEP who proposed Good morning. Thanks for joining us

:02:54.:03:03.

at short notice. Is your aim to try and reverse what happened on June

:03:04.:03:09.

23? My aim with those amendments was simply factual. It is rather odd

:03:10.:03:13.

that these amendments of two months ago are suddenly used paper

:03:14.:03:18.

headlines in three very different newspapers on the same day. It

:03:19.:03:23.

smacks of a sort of concerted effort to try and slapped down any notion

:03:24.:03:29.

that Britain might perhaps want to rethink its position on Brexit as

:03:30.:03:34.

the cost of Brexit emerges. You would like us to rethink the

:03:35.:03:39.

position even before the cost urges? I get lots of letters from people

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saying how one, this was an advisory referendum won by a narrow majority

:03:46.:03:52.

on the basis of a pack of lies and a questionable mandate. But if there

:03:53.:03:54.

is a mandate from this referendum, it is surely to secure a Brexit that

:03:55.:03:58.

works for Britain without sinking the economy. And if it transpires as

:03:59.:04:03.

we move forward, that this will be a very costly exercise, then there

:04:04.:04:06.

will be people who voted leave who said Hang on, this is not what I was

:04:07.:04:11.

told. I was told this would save money, we could put it in the NHS,

:04:12.:04:16.

but if it is going to cost us and our Monday leg, I

:04:17.:04:30.

would the right to reconsider. But your aim is not get a Brexit that

:04:31.:04:34.

would work for Britain, your aim is to stop it? If we got a Brexit that

:04:35.:04:37.

would work for Britain, that would respect the mandate. But if we

:04:38.:04:40.

cannot get that, if it is going to be a disaster, if it is going to

:04:41.:04:43.

cost people jobs and cost Britain money, it is something we might want

:04:44.:04:46.

to pause and rethink. The government said it is going to come forward

:04:47.:04:50.

with a plan. That is good. We need to know what options to go for as a

:04:51.:04:57.

country. Do we want to stay in the single market, the customs union,

:04:58.:05:01.

the various agencies? And options should be costed so we can all see

:05:02.:05:05.

how much they cost of Brexit will be. If you were simply going to try

:05:06.:05:12.

and make the resolution is more illegal, why did the constitutional

:05:13.:05:17.

committee vote them down? This is a report about future treaty

:05:18.:05:25.

amendments down the road for years to come. This was not the main focus

:05:26.:05:31.

of the report, it was a side reference, in which was put the idea

:05:32.:05:37.

for Association partnerships. Will you push for the idea before the

:05:38.:05:48.

full parliament? I must see what the text is. You said there is a

:05:49.:05:53.

widespread view in labour that if the Brexit view is bad we should not

:05:54.:05:59.

exclude everything, I take it you mean another referendum. When you

:06:00.:06:04.

were named down these amendments, was this just acting on your own

:06:05.:06:10.

initiative, or acting on behalf of the Labour Party? I am just be

:06:11.:06:16.

humble lame-duck MEP in the European Parliament. It makes sense from any

:06:17.:06:21.

point of view that if the course of action you have embarked on turns

:06:22.:06:25.

out to be much more costly and disastrous than you had anticipated,

:06:26.:06:30.

that you might want the chance to think again. You might come to the

:06:31.:06:34.

same conclusion, of course, but you might think, wait a minute, let's

:06:35.:06:40.

have a look at this. But let's be clear, even though you are deputy

:06:41.:06:44.

leader of Labour in the European Parliament, you're acting alone and

:06:45.:06:52.

not as Labour Party policy? I am acting in the constitutional affairs

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committee. All I am doing is stating things which are common sense. If as

:06:57.:07:00.

we move forward then this turns out to be a disaster, we need to look

:07:01.:07:04.

very carefully at where we are going. But if a deal is done under

:07:05.:07:11.

Article 50, and we get to see the shape of that deal by the end of

:07:12.:07:15.

2019 under the two-year timetable, in your words, we won't know if it

:07:16.:07:20.

is a disaster or not until it is implemented. We won't be able to

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tell until we see the results about whether it is good or bad, surely?

:07:25.:07:33.

We might well be able to, because that has to take account of the

:07:34.:07:38.

future framework of relationships with the European Union, to quote

:07:39.:07:41.

the article of the treaty. That means we should have some idea about

:07:42.:07:46.

what that will be like. Will we be outside the customs union, for

:07:47.:07:49.

instance, which will be very damaging for our economy? Or will we

:07:50.:07:52.

have to stay inside and follow the rules without having a say on them.

:07:53.:07:58.

We won't know until we leave the customs union. You think it will be

:07:59.:08:02.

damaging, others think it will give us the opportunity to do massive

:08:03.:08:06.

trade deals. My case this morning is not what is right or wrong, we will

:08:07.:08:11.

not know until we have seen the results. We will know a heck of a

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lot more than we do now when we see that Article 50 divorce agreement.

:08:16.:08:18.

We will know the terms of the divorce, we will know how much we

:08:19.:08:22.

still have to pay into the EU budget for legacy costs. We will know

:08:23.:08:27.

whether we will be in the single market customs union or not. We will

:08:28.:08:31.

know about the agencies. We will know a lot of things. If the deal on

:08:32.:08:36.

the table looks as if it will be damaging to Britain, then Parliament

:08:37.:08:40.

will be in its rights to say, wait a minute, not this deal. And then you

:08:41.:08:44.

either renegotiate or you reconsider the whole issue of Brexit or you

:08:45.:08:49.

find another solution. We need to leave it there but thank you for

:08:50.:08:52.

joining us. Iain Martin, how serious is the

:08:53.:09:01.

attempt to in effect an wind what happened on June 23? I think it is

:09:02.:09:06.

pretty serious and that interview illustrates very well the most

:09:07.:09:10.

damaging impact of the approach taken by a lot of Remainers, which

:09:11.:09:14.

is essentially to say with one breath, we of course accept the

:09:15.:09:20.

result, but with every action subsequent to that to try and

:09:21.:09:23.

undermine the result or try and are sure that the deal is as bad as

:09:24.:09:27.

possible. I think what needed to happen and hasn't happened after

:09:28.:09:32.

June 23 is you have the extremists on both sides and you have in the

:09:33.:09:37.

middle probably 70% of public opinion, moderate leaders, moderate

:09:38.:09:41.

Remainers should be working together to try and get British bespoke deal.

:09:42.:09:52.

But moderate Leavers will not take moderate Remainers seriously if this

:09:53.:09:56.

is the approach taken at every single turn to try and rerun the

:09:57.:10:06.

referendum. He did not say whether it was Labour policy? That was a

:10:07.:10:10.

question which was ducked. I do not think it is Labour Party policy. I

:10:11.:10:14.

think most people are in a morass in the middle. I think the screaming

:10:15.:10:20.

that happens when anybody dares to question or suggest that you might

:10:21.:10:24.

ever want to think again about these things, I disagree with him about

:10:25.:10:28.

having another referendum but if he wants to campaign for that it is his

:10:29.:10:33.

democratic right to do so. If you can convince enough people it is a

:10:34.:10:37.

good idea then he has succeeded. But the idea that we would do a deal and

:10:38.:10:42.

then realise this is a really bad deal, let's not proceed, we will not

:10:43.:10:47.

really know that until the deal is implemented. What our access is to

:10:48.:10:53.

the single market, whether or not we are in or out of the customs union

:10:54.:10:57.

which we will talk about in a minute, what immigration policy we

:10:58.:11:01.

will have, whether these are going to be good things bad things, surely

:11:02.:11:04.

you have got to wait for four, five, to be good things bad things, surely

:11:05.:11:09.

six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage

:11:10.:11:13.

Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,

:11:14.:11:17.

or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of

:11:18.:11:22.

2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa

:11:23.:11:30.

May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that

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Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I

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recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical

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drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't

:11:55.:12:00.

think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very

:12:01.:12:06.

long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we

:12:07.:12:10.

would stay in the customs union after Brexit.

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There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff

:12:14.:12:19.

setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at

:12:20.:12:25.

all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it

:12:26.:12:28.

is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the

:12:29.:12:33.

customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the

:12:34.:12:41.

cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a

:12:42.:12:45.

member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would

:12:46.:12:49.

make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs

:12:50.:12:53.

union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as

:12:54.:12:58.

binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would

:12:59.:13:01.

suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to

:13:02.:13:06.

do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that

:13:07.:13:10.

is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his

:13:11.:13:16.

opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in

:13:17.:13:25.

Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury

:13:26.:13:28.

PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is

:13:29.:13:31.

Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the

:13:32.:13:38.

customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the

:13:39.:13:45.

customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is

:13:46.:13:50.

proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do

:13:51.:13:55.

free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade

:13:56.:14:03.

deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment

:14:04.:14:06.

but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade

:14:07.:14:11.

deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line

:14:12.:14:15.

for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought

:14:16.:14:19.

Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to

:14:20.:14:23.

suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an

:14:24.:14:29.

argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he

:14:30.:14:37.

wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet

:14:38.:14:41.

about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country

:14:42.:14:46.

we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,

:14:47.:14:50.

but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look

:14:51.:14:53.

at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is

:14:54.:14:57.

happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I

:14:58.:15:04.

think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it

:15:05.:15:09.

becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we

:15:10.:15:16.

are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this

:15:17.:15:17.

country. So, we've had a warning this week

:15:18.:15:22.

that it could take ten years to do a trade deal

:15:23.:15:25.

with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand

:15:26.:15:27.

trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first

:15:28.:15:29.

countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal

:15:30.:15:31.

with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told

:15:32.:15:34.

us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film

:15:35.:15:37.

for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High

:15:38.:15:53.

Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined

:15:54.:15:55.

the European Union, Now I'm in the job,

:15:56.:15:57.

the UK is leaving. Australia supported

:15:58.:16:06.

Britain remaining a member of the European Union,

:16:07.:16:07.

but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,

:16:08.:16:11.

we hope that Britain will get on with the process

:16:12.:16:16.

of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make

:16:17.:16:20.

the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,

:16:21.:16:24.

Australia approached the British Government

:16:25.:16:30.

with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,

:16:31.:16:33.

to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian

:16:34.:16:36.

governments have already established a working group to explore a future,

:16:37.:16:42.

ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide

:16:43.:16:45.

great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase

:16:46.:16:57.

British-made cars for less We would give British

:16:58.:17:02.

households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,

:17:03.:17:08.

so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce

:17:09.:17:14.

when the equivalent British or Australian households would have

:17:15.:17:17.

access to British products Free-trade agreements

:17:18.:17:24.

are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source

:17:25.:17:37.

of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests

:17:38.:17:41.

over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement

:17:42.:17:48.

would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade

:17:49.:17:50.

agreements are not just about trade and investment,

:17:51.:17:56.

they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations

:17:57.:18:00.

often work more closely together in other fields including security,

:18:01.:18:03.

the spread of democracy We may have preferred

:18:04.:18:07.

the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK

:18:08.:18:21.

to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can

:18:22.:18:24.

be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade

:18:25.:18:26.

agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement

:18:27.:18:29.

with the United States This is one of the reasons why

:18:30.:18:30.

the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years

:18:31.:18:42.

and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's

:18:43.:18:45.

vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help

:18:46.:18:56.

in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The

:18:57.:19:25.

Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal

:19:26.:19:29.

with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is

:19:30.:19:35.

complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.

:19:36.:19:40.

The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual

:19:41.:19:46.

trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with

:19:47.:19:50.

the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary

:19:51.:19:56.

examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking

:19:57.:20:01.

already, we have set up a joint working group with the British

:20:02.:20:05.

Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what

:20:06.:20:08.

questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have

:20:09.:20:14.

formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no

:20:15.:20:21.

free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long

:20:22.:20:24.

and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian

:20:25.:20:31.

agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its

:20:32.:20:37.

access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,

:20:38.:20:40.

is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a

:20:41.:20:46.

scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union

:20:47.:20:50.

and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.

:20:51.:20:55.

But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but

:20:56.:21:00.

one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain

:21:01.:21:06.

leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has

:21:07.:21:10.

always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not

:21:11.:21:15.

happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European

:21:16.:21:20.

Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality

:21:21.:21:26.

which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international

:21:27.:21:29.

relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.

:21:30.:21:34.

It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose

:21:35.:21:38.

that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped

:21:39.:21:44.

out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a

:21:45.:21:47.

free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is

:21:48.:21:52.

about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless

:21:53.:21:58.

you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that

:21:59.:22:03.

case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and

:22:04.:22:07.

that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of

:22:08.:22:11.

negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up

:22:12.:22:17.

nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this

:22:18.:22:21.

free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other

:22:22.:22:26.

than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both

:22:27.:22:31.

free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not

:22:32.:22:34.

think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the

:22:35.:22:40.

UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to

:22:41.:22:44.

Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot

:22:45.:22:49.

of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years

:22:50.:22:55.

is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has

:22:56.:23:00.

made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal

:23:01.:23:05.

is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin

:23:06.:23:08.

and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we

:23:09.:23:14.

returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country

:23:15.:23:17.

rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we

:23:18.:23:25.

will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the

:23:26.:23:28.

transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have

:23:29.:23:32.

other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate

:23:33.:23:38.

would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to

:23:39.:23:43.

achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a

:23:44.:23:46.

free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is

:23:47.:23:53.

more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with

:23:54.:23:58.

China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and

:23:59.:24:03.

they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing

:24:04.:24:11.

with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think

:24:12.:24:14.

Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there

:24:15.:24:21.

is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and

:24:22.:24:25.

the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.

:24:26.:24:30.

So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct

:24:31.:24:35.

barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved

:24:36.:24:40.

in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade

:24:41.:24:46.

system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United

:24:47.:24:50.

Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European

:24:51.:24:56.

Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will

:24:57.:25:00.

try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly

:25:01.:25:05.

commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a

:25:06.:25:10.

free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the

:25:11.:25:13.

Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our

:25:14.:25:20.

present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate

:25:21.:25:24.

against any country. The European Union's free movement means you

:25:25.:25:28.

discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.

:25:29.:25:33.

It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building

:25:34.:25:36.

of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it

:25:37.:25:38.

more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.

:25:39.:25:40.

Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis

:25:41.:25:43.

of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?

:25:44.:25:45.

40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.

:25:46.:25:59.

Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.

:26:00.:26:05.

It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions

:26:06.:26:11.

about air pollution, that this is a public health

:26:12.:26:14.

emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,

:26:15.:26:18.

But how bad is air quality in Britain really?

:26:19.:26:25.

Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works

:26:26.:26:29.

at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.

:26:30.:26:32.

He has been looking into the recent claims

:26:33.:26:34.

It's a problem and it affects people's health.

:26:35.:26:40.

But when people start talking about the numbers

:26:41.:26:42.

of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.

:26:43.:26:44.

There have been tremendous improvements in air quality

:26:45.:26:49.

There is a lot less pollution than there used to be

:26:50.:26:54.

and none of that is coming through in the public

:26:55.:26:58.

So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels

:26:59.:27:02.

of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?

:27:03.:27:05.

It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution

:27:06.:27:07.

on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who

:27:08.:27:10.

It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening

:27:11.:27:15.

To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit

:27:16.:27:21.

I asked him about the data on which these claims

:27:22.:27:26.

They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities

:27:27.:27:31.

First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure

:27:32.:27:38.

29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000

:27:39.:27:43.

I will just talk about this group for a start.

:27:44.:27:52.

These are what are known as attributable deaths.

:27:53.:27:55.

Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.

:27:56.:28:00.

Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this

:28:01.:28:03.

was based on a study of US cities and they found out that

:28:04.:28:07.

by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had

:28:08.:28:11.

a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.

:28:12.:28:17.

They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying

:28:18.:28:23.

each year for each small increase in pollution.

:28:24.:28:28.

So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise

:28:29.:28:31.

it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises

:28:32.:28:34.

the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.

:28:35.:28:40.

So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000

:28:41.:28:43.

Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.

:28:44.:28:49.

And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths

:28:50.:28:53.

How much should we invest in cycling?

:28:54.:29:01.

Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?

:29:02.:29:03.

We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,

:29:04.:29:07.

but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?

:29:08.:29:11.

I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment

:29:12.:29:16.

and for air pollution that they don't really

:29:17.:29:18.

see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.

:29:19.:29:24.

Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing

:29:25.:29:27.

London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

:29:28.:29:29.

If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,

:29:30.:29:35.

that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.

:29:36.:29:37.

If you are poor and you are in social class five,

:29:38.:29:40.

compared to social class one, that would take seven

:29:41.:29:42.

If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.

:29:43.:29:47.

Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all

:29:48.:29:50.

of the cars in London and all of the road transport,

:29:51.:29:53.

we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air

:29:54.:29:56.

pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.

:29:57.:30:01.

There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,

:30:02.:30:04.

but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact

:30:05.:30:07.

on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making

:30:08.:30:10.

And we are joined now by the Executive Director

:30:11.:30:20.

You have called pollution and national crisis and a health

:30:21.:30:39.

emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are

:30:40.:30:43.

remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the

:30:44.:30:53.

studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the

:30:54.:30:58.

UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air

:30:59.:31:02.

pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if

:31:03.:31:07.

you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is

:31:08.:31:11.

impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of

:31:12.:31:15.

solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is

:31:16.:31:25.

down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which

:31:26.:31:31.

we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from

:31:32.:31:36.

the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is

:31:37.:31:41.

something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.

:31:42.:31:48.

If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of

:31:49.:31:55.

the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really

:31:56.:32:04.

worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe

:32:05.:32:10.

good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far

:32:11.:32:14.

from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is

:32:15.:32:23.

it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the

:32:24.:32:28.

last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health

:32:29.:32:32.

Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they

:32:33.:32:37.

need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if

:32:38.:32:40.

you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if

:32:41.:32:44.

you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities

:32:45.:32:50.

and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very

:32:51.:32:53.

high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors

:32:54.:32:57.

and many studies by London University showing this to be true.

:32:58.:33:03.

The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of

:33:04.:33:08.

pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is

:33:09.:33:13.

causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.

:33:14.:33:17.

The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and

:33:18.:33:21.

there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we

:33:22.:33:26.

have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution

:33:27.:33:31.

causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is

:33:32.:33:38.

40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.

:33:39.:33:47.

Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are

:33:48.:33:52.

talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air

:33:53.:33:57.

pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to

:33:58.:34:01.

phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner

:34:02.:34:05.

tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and

:34:06.:34:08.

clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had

:34:09.:34:12.

the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to

:34:13.:34:20.

me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most

:34:21.:34:26.

polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking

:34:27.:34:32.

at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure

:34:33.:34:37.

which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical

:34:38.:34:43.

effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is

:34:44.:34:52.

everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of

:34:53.:34:55.

people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,

:34:56.:34:59.

but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air

:35:00.:35:04.

pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more

:35:05.:35:09.

individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be

:35:10.:35:19.

premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be

:35:20.:35:22.

by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing

:35:23.:35:24.

difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke

:35:25.:35:34.

and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do

:35:35.:35:42.

you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined

:35:43.:35:50.

that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.

:35:51.:36:00.

But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000

:36:01.:36:04.

deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by

:36:05.:36:09.

that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do

:36:10.:36:13.

something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly

:36:14.:36:18.

caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem

:36:19.:36:22.

of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I

:36:23.:36:28.

am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another

:36:29.:36:35.

claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe

:36:36.:36:40.

clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have

:36:41.:36:46.

also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50

:36:47.:36:50.

cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you

:36:51.:36:57.

look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the

:36:58.:37:00.

actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent

:37:01.:37:03.

effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in

:37:04.:37:09.

terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am

:37:10.:37:15.

throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed

:37:16.:37:19.

that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and

:37:20.:37:24.

that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us

:37:25.:37:27.

that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does

:37:28.:37:31.

take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine

:37:32.:37:36.

months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten

:37:37.:37:40.

years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a

:37:41.:37:44.

piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken

:37:45.:37:49.

it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the

:37:50.:37:52.

professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the

:37:53.:37:58.

thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the

:37:59.:38:01.

impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young

:38:02.:38:08.

children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,

:38:09.:38:13.

this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the

:38:14.:38:17.

underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not

:38:18.:38:22.

arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate

:38:23.:38:26.

things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree

:38:27.:38:31.

with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I

:38:32.:38:37.

absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been

:38:38.:38:40.

made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think

:38:41.:38:45.

the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,

:38:46.:38:49.

diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can

:38:50.:38:56.

get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see

:38:57.:39:00.

us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.

:39:01.:39:02.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:03.:39:08.

Good morning, and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:39:09.:39:10.

The Scottish Government prepares to reveal its Brexit plans.

:39:11.:39:15.

Alex Salmond tells us they could call and win another

:39:16.:39:18.

And 2016 - a historic year in Scottish Politics, from A to Z.

:39:19.:39:29.

Nearly six months on from the vote to leave the European Union,

:39:30.:39:32.

the Scottish Government is about to reveal its Brexit plans.

:39:33.:39:35.

On Tuesday, it's widely reported that the proposals will be based

:39:36.:39:38.

on the so-called Norway Model - where Scotland would remain

:39:39.:39:41.

in the European Free Trade area and a member of the single market.

:39:42.:39:45.

But how realistic is that, and where does it fit with the UK

:39:46.:39:48.

And it can be lonely at the top. Theresa May was in Brussels for a

:39:49.:40:11.

European summit this week, the EU's 27 of these leaders met to discuss

:40:12.:40:17.

Brexit without the PM. Downing said Brexit without the PM. Downing said

:40:18.:40:24.

-- Downing Street said it reinforced the view that Brexit means Brexit.

:40:25.:40:30.

Mrs May was joined by Ivan Rogers. He had to slip out of the car while

:40:31.:40:35.

she created eyed devotion, after it was reported he thought a post

:40:36.:40:40.

Brexit trade deal would take ten years. And many are awaiting the

:40:41.:40:50.

First Minister of Scotland's Brexit plan to keep Scotland in a single

:40:51.:40:55.

market. But Nicola Sturgeon's opponents say it is a nonstarter

:40:56.:40:58.

because it would trap the nation in a deal over which it would have no

:40:59.:41:03.

influence. So what does all that mean? Continued uncertainty over the

:41:04.:41:04.

future of the UK. Just before we came

:41:05.:41:07.

on air I spoke to the SNP Foreign Affairs Spokesperson,

:41:08.:41:09.

Alex Salmond. First of all, there is much talk of

:41:10.:41:19.

people in the SNP, you and Nicola Sturgeon, about how the British

:41:20.:41:22.

catchment is obliged to consider your proposals that you are about to

:41:23.:41:26.

publish. What does that mean? Are you saying they have two keep either

:41:27.:41:30.

Britain or Scotland in the single market all that is a breach of their

:41:31.:41:37.

operation? That is certainly the First Minister's view, and her

:41:38.:41:41.

proposal. And things looked like they are turning in that direction.

:41:42.:41:46.

The opinion poll this morning for the first time showed people across

:41:47.:41:52.

the UK giving priority to the single market. In Scotland it is 2-1 to

:41:53.:42:01.

that. So there is a position to try to force that on the Government. So

:42:02.:42:06.

whatever happens in terms of the UK, the First Minister wants to be clear

:42:07.:42:10.

how Scotland cameras aim remain within the single market. I'm

:42:11.:42:17.

curious about all the talk of another referendum on independence.

:42:18.:42:21.

If the Scottish Government doesn't get some sort of deal, that is. Is

:42:22.:42:26.

that the red Line for you? That Scotland would one way or another

:42:27.:42:29.

have to be in the single market all they would be another referendum?

:42:30.:42:34.

What matters is what Nicola Sturgeon's red lines are. And she

:42:35.:42:40.

has enunciated a simple one, two, three. One, keep Scotland within the

:42:41.:42:51.

second -- single market. And if the UK is unwilling to listen to our

:42:52.:42:58.

representations, it is likely that there will be a referendum within

:42:59.:43:02.

the next two-year is. I'm curious as to whether you see that as the red

:43:03.:43:08.

line. There could other deals. Repatriated and of powers from the

:43:09.:43:10.

European Union to the Scottish Parliament for example. Whether

:43:11.:43:15.

Britain was a segment can say we have given you lots. Are you saying

:43:16.:43:18.

it is the single market that has been the Red Line? Nicola Sturgeon

:43:19.:43:25.

has put forward her priorities. That is staying in the single market,

:43:26.:43:29.

equal treatment for other Europeans, and the rights of Scottish workers.

:43:30.:43:36.

I'm sure in the strategy document that is to be published this week,

:43:37.:43:40.

she will be outlining a range of other things that Scotland requires,

:43:41.:43:45.

particularly the powers that we will need to secure Scotland's position.

:43:46.:43:52.

There are certain powers, as you are aware, fishing, agriculture, some

:43:53.:43:56.

control of immigration, that would be required within the single market

:43:57.:44:00.

place for Scotland to operate within it, as well as the full powers of

:44:01.:44:06.

Scottish independence. Again, I don't understand. Are you saying

:44:07.:44:10.

Scotland having control of for example a fisheries policy, would do

:44:11.:44:14.

as a compromise was to mark that seems to be the opposite of staying

:44:15.:44:18.

in the single market. Scotland could get all sorts of powers by breaking

:44:19.:44:22.

away, but are you saying staying in this market is the main thing? It

:44:23.:44:28.

isn't the opposite. We just need to glance across the Northsea, to see a

:44:29.:44:35.

country called Norway which is within the single marketplace but

:44:36.:44:37.

has powers over its fishing industry. As we saw this week,

:44:38.:44:44.

fishing is very interesting, because it is probably the sole real

:44:45.:44:45.

fishing is very interesting, because industry in the rest recent European

:44:46.:44:51.

referendum which was in favour of exiting the European Union. As we

:44:52.:44:58.

saw from the House of Lords report, fishing depends on access to the

:44:59.:45:01.

single marketplace in order to sell our products. It would be great to

:45:02.:45:12.

get 20% more quarter -- quota but if there is 20% more tax any benefit

:45:13.:45:21.

will be dissipated. The single market is important to every aspect

:45:22.:45:24.

of the Scottish economy. Do you think you could win an independence

:45:25.:45:36.

referendum at the moment? Yes. Why? Last time, when I was First Minister

:45:37.:45:40.

and embarked on this process, support for independence was 28%. In

:45:41.:45:49.

2012 we ended up at 45%. I don't think Nicola Sturgeon would have any

:45:50.:45:53.

compunction about calling a referendum. What it depends on is

:45:54.:45:58.

the arguments. And in a situation where the UK Government is

:45:59.:46:03.

determined despite every opportunity to sever Scotland's links to the EU,

:46:04.:46:10.

I think many people who were previously sceptical about

:46:11.:46:14.

independence would come to the Yes side. And you think you would win?

:46:15.:46:25.

Yes. I take your point that at the beginning of the last campaign

:46:26.:46:30.

support was lower. But surely because of the last campaign people

:46:31.:46:35.

have made up their minds. There aren't a 20% who haven't made up

:46:36.:46:38.

have made up their minds. There their minds. Therefore wouldn't it

:46:39.:46:41.

be more difficult to get you over the line? I think there are a lot of

:46:42.:46:46.

people with an open mind about Scottish independence. I think there

:46:47.:46:50.

are people who are passionately in favour, and strongly against. But

:46:51.:46:54.

there are still lots of folk in Scotland who would regard Scotland's

:46:55.:46:58.

best rarity and securing their position, the rights of workers, the

:46:59.:47:06.

treatment of fellow Europeans, access to the marketplace, as

:47:07.:47:11.

priorities which if they could only be claimed by independence, could be

:47:12.:47:18.

persuaded to vote in that direction. With careful argument and all Nicola

:47:19.:47:25.

Sturgeon's powers of argument. The only problem the SNP might have is

:47:26.:47:29.

not a reader polls show that the majority of people want to stay in

:47:30.:47:34.

the UK, they also show the majority of people have no appetite for

:47:35.:47:39.

another referendum. And they also show, as I mentioned, that more than

:47:40.:47:49.

2000 -- two thirds of Scots want to maintain their position in the

:47:50.:47:54.

single marketplace and want jobs Empress parity over control of

:47:55.:48:07.

immigration. We are saying that it is a strong position to debate the

:48:08.:48:14.

independence issue. Nicola Sturgeon, correctly, has said we want the UK

:48:15.:48:18.

to stay in the single marketplace. If that is not possible we are

:48:19.:48:22.

publishing a strategy that shows how Scotland can do that. And if the UK

:48:23.:48:28.

Government says they are not interested, if they have a full

:48:29.:48:33.

Philip Hammond attitude, then it would be a different context and we

:48:34.:48:38.

would be in a strong position to have the next referendum. If the

:48:39.:48:41.

British Government turns round to the Scottish Government and says we

:48:42.:48:54.

are not going to stay in the single market... Nicola Sturgeon has talked

:48:55.:49:01.

about this. What powers do you want as a result of Brexit? As someone

:49:02.:49:10.

who reads up on these things, if you wait to see the strategy document 's

:49:11.:49:14.

Nicola is publishing, the first strategy to emerge from any

:49:15.:49:18.

political leader in these islands, I think you will find those questions

:49:19.:49:24.

answered in full in enormous detail, if I know her. The sun is coming up

:49:25.:49:29.

over your bridge, so we should leave you to it. Happy Christmas from the

:49:30.:49:36.

north-east of Scotland. Well, listening to

:49:37.:49:39.

that is Adam Tomkins Was he saying that Scotland has

:49:40.:49:53.

say in the single market or they will have another referendum? It did

:49:54.:49:57.

appear that he was saying that, which is quite different what I've

:49:58.:50:01.

from what I think Nicola Sturgeon would want him to say. And it shows

:50:02.:50:06.

again that the SNP are all over the place on this. Only two weeks ago at

:50:07.:50:12.

the Scottish affairs committee said the only way they could stay was by

:50:13.:50:17.

staying the member states and the UK... Was what he was saying any

:50:18.:50:24.

different from what Nicola Sturgeon said this morning? We don't know

:50:25.:50:31.

what she has said. Details are still to come. But what the Scottish

:50:32.:50:39.

Conservatives want is for Scotland and the whole of the UK to have as

:50:40.:50:43.

full access to and participation in the single market as is possible,

:50:44.:50:47.

consistent with the result of the referendum on the 23rd of June.

:50:48.:50:52.

Which is not necessarily what trees are made's Government wants. Let us

:50:53.:50:59.

be clear, what the Scottish Conservatives want... It's not up to

:51:00.:51:04.

you to decide. It is up to the UK to decide, because it is their decision

:51:05.:51:09.

to leave the EU. A couple of years ago Scotland voted to remain in the

:51:10.:51:14.

UK. And a few months ago the UK voted to leave the EU. The

:51:15.:51:21.

difficulty Mr Salmond has is that they are in denial about the

:51:22.:51:24.

referendum results. They are not random opinion polls put out in the

:51:25.:51:28.

field, that they can choose to abide by or ignore... If you are a

:51:29.:51:35.

democratic politician you have to abide by them. You say the Scottish

:51:36.:51:39.

Conservative position is that we should stay in the single market...

:51:40.:51:47.

We want as full and access and participation in the single market

:51:48.:51:52.

as possible. There is no such thing as membership of the single market

:51:53.:51:57.

unless you are a member state of the EU. And we just voted to leave. Are

:51:58.:52:02.

you checking that David Mundell is arguing that in Cabinet? We are all

:52:03.:52:07.

singing from the same hymn sheet. arguing that in Cabinet? We are all

:52:08.:52:12.

There is no difference of opinion and there is no change in policy. We

:52:13.:52:19.

want full access and participation as possible. I think that is exactly

:52:20.:52:26.

what the Theresa May Government is working towards. But part of your

:52:27.:52:31.

reply to add Alex Salmond would be that single market, or not single

:52:32.:52:39.

market, Brexit means single market is not as clear a statement as it

:52:40.:52:46.

might be. Absolutely. That is why a sensible Government like this one is

:52:47.:52:51.

going slowly in order to figure out what access to the single market...

:52:52.:52:58.

You were not in or out, you can have varying degrees of access depending

:52:59.:53:03.

what is in the national interest. Everybody says, it has always been a

:53:04.:53:11.

European union of bits and pieces. Switzerland's access is different

:53:12.:53:16.

from Norway's is different from Canada's... Lastly, and briefly, as

:53:17.:53:27.

a Scottish Conservative, do you think it is more likely that the

:53:28.:53:32.

British Government will say to the Scottish Government, look, whatever

:53:33.:53:35.

the single market views you have, here is a deal, you will control

:53:36.:53:41.

fisheries, some of VAT, agriculture policy... Are you really going to

:53:42.:53:45.

have another referendum if we offer you all of this? All of this is part

:53:46.:53:51.

of the negotiation to come. It is plain that the UK Government is not

:53:52.:53:54.

going to be rewritten Irving any fresh powers to Westminster. Some

:53:55.:54:02.

powers will go to Westminster some will go to Hollywood. This will --

:54:03.:54:12.

Holyrood. If the Scottish Government would stop sabre rattling about a

:54:13.:54:18.

referendum, we need to pull together and not pull apart.

:54:19.:54:21.

Brexit was one of the defining political events of 2016.

:54:22.:54:24.

The EU referendum in June followed the Holyrood election.

:54:25.:54:26.

Here's our A-Z of the last 12 months.

:54:27.:54:42.

I think the more transparency bike we can have, the better. Before we

:54:43.:54:50.

go any further we need to have a cold, calm, look at this. If a

:54:51.:54:56.

company or individual avoids tax they should not be able to benefit

:54:57.:54:58.

from public contracts. I will do everything I can as Prime

:54:59.:55:43.

Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months, but I do

:55:44.:55:47.

not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers

:55:48.:55:50.

our country to its next destination. This is a truly historic deal. It is

:55:51.:57:25.

based on the principles I set out in earlier legislation... That will

:57:26.:57:26.

pave the way for the Scottish Parliament to become one of the most

:57:27.:57:29.

accountable parliament is in the world. It is based on the same

:57:30.:57:34.

approach that I have used for setting all devolves taxes.

:57:35.:57:40.

I will watch you from afar and wish you well for your future and the

:57:41.:57:56.

There is no greater cause than to serve that of the people of this

:57:57.:58:13.

country. And so with that it is from goodbye from me for now.

:58:14.:58:57.

We have concluded that the UK chose to join the invasion of Iraq before

:58:58.:59:05.

the peaceful options for disarmament had been exhausted.

:59:06.:59:30.

I don't know the details of plan B, we don't have a plan B, we have a

:59:31.:59:39.

plan A, we will stay in the European Union as an active member.

:59:40.:59:49.

What makes you better to run the NHS? I'm not a big fan. Sorry. I

:59:50.:00:04.

categorically voted in Parliament tonight. I saw the vote registered.

:00:05.:00:45.

Ken Macdonald Tauscher is elected as Presiding Officer of the Scottish

:00:46.:00:49.

Parliament. The measures I have announced today

:00:50.:01:04.

means the total support of the Scottish Government and through

:01:05.:01:07.

local taxation provides an increase in spending our local government

:01:08.:01:15.

services, not of 59.6 million, but of 240.6 million three point 3%.

:01:16.:01:44.

I can confirm today that the independence referendum bill will be

:01:45.:01:56.

published for consultation next week.

:01:57.:04:05.

I have never been and over wanted to be a career politician. My aim and

:04:06.:04:14.

being in politics was to get Britain out of the European Union. The

:04:15.:04:35.

country needs a strong Ukip now more than ever before, before F Ukip

:04:36.:04:50.

ceases to be on the electoral law, then there will be no impetus on

:04:51.:04:53.

Mere. The Scottish Government will

:04:54.:05:50.

undertake a three-month period where we will take input from practitioner

:05:51.:05:56.

's as well as parents, charities, as well as young people, those who

:05:57.:06:00.

support the named person policy, and those who have concerns.

:06:01.:06:30.

Well, joining me now to discuss the year in politics

:06:31.:06:32.

is Severin Carrell, Scotland editor for The Guardian, the UK

:06:33.:06:34.

editor of The Big Issue, Paul McNamee, and Lindsay McIntosh,

:06:35.:06:37.

Let's start with Alex Salmond, he was bullish about the independence

:06:38.:06:48.

referendum. Is he right or do you think that is the Scottish

:06:49.:06:55.

Government's you? I would think that on the face of it the numbers would

:06:56.:06:58.

be in his favour. The idea that they took the Yes vote from 32 to 33% up

:06:59.:07:07.

to 45% suggest they should be to get the line up to 50. But I do not

:07:08.:07:11.

think Nicola Sturgeon is at one with them on the idea that this is a slam

:07:12.:07:16.

dunk. They have a lot to do, a lot of critical questions from 2014 that

:07:17.:07:22.

are hanging over them and even more critical questions over Brexit

:07:23.:07:29.

hanging over them, and time is running out and they have a set of

:07:30.:07:34.

pressures to manage, their own party, the yes movement and the

:07:35.:07:36.

political reality that they are now left in. It is far trickier with

:07:37.:07:42.

those facts. The other issue is that everything could be more ambiguous

:07:43.:07:51.

now. Alex Salmond suggested that Scotland or Britain did not stay in

:07:52.:07:54.

the single market could lead to another referendum vote. What does

:07:55.:08:00.

the SNP see you then. Also, the other thing is the British

:08:01.:08:05.

government could save here are more powers, over fisheries and

:08:06.:08:08.

agriculture, even if they do not stay in the single market. Will you

:08:09.:08:13.

still go through with their referendum even though we're giving

:08:14.:08:18.

you all those powers? There are all these unanswered questions,

:08:19.:08:20.

different parts of the deal that need to be worked out between the UK

:08:21.:08:25.

and the EU and Scotland and the UK. Article 50 will be triggered at the

:08:26.:08:32.

start of next year, that will be a two-year process. When does Nicola

:08:33.:08:36.

Sturgeon feel that she will have enough clarity about what Scotland

:08:37.:08:40.

will get to say to Scots, this is fine, or to go to the polls and

:08:41.:08:45.

trigger independence too. The line has been over the past year, we will

:08:46.:08:52.

have an independence referendum if the polls show that we can win it.

:08:53.:09:01.

He did not seem at all swayed by that. Yes, you could say there is a

:09:02.:09:08.

margin of error. It is not going up at the moment. It really is a major

:09:09.:09:15.

gamble to hold a second independence referendum with the numbers as they

:09:16.:09:19.

are at the moment. What about better exit macro itself poll? -- Brexit.

:09:20.:09:30.

With each week, with each piece of debate it seems messier and messier.

:09:31.:09:34.

Part of the problem with the Scottish Government is that if the

:09:35.:09:40.

pollution a particular way with Brexit, the opposition could argue,

:09:41.:09:45.

hold on you have got to govern the country before you start to think

:09:46.:09:46.

about what Brexit is. I think that country before you start to think

:09:47.:09:50.

is the case for a lot of other regions in Britain as well, whether

:09:51.:09:55.

it is Northern Ireland or Wales, they have their own particular

:09:56.:10:00.

issues and problems to deal with. Brexit seems to dominate our

:10:01.:10:05.

thoughts. The and bolts of government for people is broadly

:10:06.:10:10.

being left of it. And I think that is the problem. A big issue is two

:10:11.:10:15.

views, one, the British government has a cunning plan which it is

:10:16.:10:21.

trying to keep for its negotiating tactics. And the other is they do

:10:22.:10:25.

not have a clue they are doing. They are altering up on television

:10:26.:10:29.

studios, like Liam Fox did this morning, to punt their own version.

:10:30.:10:36.

The Tory party, the referendum was supposed to sort out the Tory

:10:37.:10:43.

party's internal warfare. What it has done it as it has exposed the

:10:44.:10:48.

warfare inside the Tory party, like Liam Fox who believe that Britain is

:10:49.:10:52.

much better as close to the United States is possible and away from

:10:53.:10:56.

Europe, and those who would rather we did not leave the EU at all.

:10:57.:11:02.

These unresolved problems are being worked out in public. I suspect they

:11:03.:11:07.

are working at various strategies in how to work things through. They are

:11:08.:11:12.

claiming 50 different teams. The problem is nobody knows quite how

:11:13.:11:16.

all the different actors and Europe will behave because the EU may be

:11:17.:11:21.

acting collectively in terms of Brussels and Strasbourg, behaving as

:11:22.:11:25.

a unified force. Germany and Spain... One of the big stories may

:11:26.:11:30.

not be whatever the British Spain... One of the big stories may

:11:31.:11:32.

government decides to do, maybe what response they get. There are also

:11:33.:11:37.

critical European elections taking place. Their own internal forces and

:11:38.:11:43.

a lot of people think this depends on what Angela Merkel wants to do.

:11:44.:11:46.

As the Germans think that keeping the UK as close as possible to

:11:47.:11:52.

Europe is in the EU's interests, that will influence really what will

:11:53.:11:57.

ends up happening. We have all the complications also to do with

:11:58.:12:00.

Ireland as well. The other thing that has changed in Scotland, but we

:12:01.:12:10.

had an election. And the SNP don't have the majority any more and

:12:11.:12:13.

everyone went on as if nothing had changed. But when the budget was

:12:14.:12:17.

produced last week, it becomes an issue, because they need to do some

:12:18.:12:21.

deals? The most important thing on the budget was the U turn on the

:12:22.:12:25.

council funding. The original plan was that council tax would get

:12:26.:12:34.

increased, but it would be put into a central pot and distributed. At

:12:35.:12:38.

the 11th hour he did a U-turn and said that individual councils could

:12:39.:12:41.

keep their funding. It is significant that it recognises that

:12:42.:12:45.

we are a minority government once again and the SNP cannot get

:12:46.:12:49.

everything their own way. It was commendable to make that change. Do

:12:50.:12:55.

you think they will do a deal? Yes, I think they will. The Greens are

:12:56.:12:59.

who we should be looking at in this. They need abstentions, not support.

:13:00.:13:06.

Paul, you mentioned the opposition. Where are they? Labour certainly

:13:07.:13:17.

have. When we looked at the list, it could have been Jeremy Corbyn. Where

:13:18.:13:23.

is he? At key points. Kezia Dugdale as well. The key points throughout

:13:24.:13:29.

this year, the Labour Party have no when they're speaking with any

:13:30.:13:33.

authority with leadership with clear policy. They have allowed themselves

:13:34.:13:37.

to become a pressure group rather than a party for government. And

:13:38.:13:39.

that is a tricky place for all of us than a party for government. And

:13:40.:13:47.

to be in, when that regulation going on around Brexit. Thank you all very

:13:48.:13:49.

much for coming in. That's all from us for this

:13:50.:13:54.

week and this year. Until then, Merry Christmas

:13:55.:13:58.

and a Happy New Year.

:13:59.:14:01.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer are joined by Alexander Downer, Australian high commissioner to the United Kingdom, Stephen Dorrell, chair of the NHS Confederation, and John Sauven, executive director at Greenpeace.

Helen Lewis of the New Statesman, Iain Martin of Reaction and Tom Newton Dunn of the Sun review the papers.


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