Browse content similar to 05/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:34. | :00:38. | |
The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree | :00:39. | :00:41. | |
in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless". | :00:42. | :00:44. | |
But will there be more money for social care and to ease | :00:45. | :00:46. | |
The UK terror threat is currently severe, | :00:47. | :00:52. | |
but where is that threat coming from? | :00:53. | :00:55. | |
We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every | :00:56. | :00:57. | |
Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades. | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks? | :01:03. | :01:08. | |
The government was defeated in the Lords on its | :01:09. | :01:10. | |
We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
And coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland. | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
The quiet Conservatives are finding their voice. | :01:20. | :01:21. | |
I'll be speaking to their Scottish Leader Ruth Davidson. | :01:22. | :01:34. | |
All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter. | :01:35. | :01:37. | |
Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed | :01:38. | :01:40. | |
to get into the BBC news studios this weekend. | :01:41. | :01:44. | |
Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet, | :01:45. | :01:47. | |
so we might as well make use of them as our political panel. | :01:48. | :01:50. | |
Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards. | :01:51. | :01:52. | |
They'll be tweeting throughout the programme. | :01:53. | :01:58. | |
Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget | :02:04. | :02:05. | |
for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
There's been pressure on him to find more money | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
for the Health Service, social care, schools funding, | :02:13. | :02:14. | |
But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark | :02:20. | :02:22. | |
What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed | :02:23. | :02:33. | |
quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on | :02:34. | :02:40. | |
Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it | :02:45. | :02:47. | |
He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his | :02:48. | :02:59. | |
statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement | :03:00. | :03:04. | |
rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November | :03:05. | :03:08. | |
he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will | :03:13. | :03:18. | |
be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my | :03:19. | :03:22. | |
view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care | :03:23. | :03:28. | |
policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the | :03:33. | :03:36. | |
politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry | :03:43. | :03:48. | |
on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November. | :03:49. | :03:55. | |
But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to | :04:03. | :04:09. | |
make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of | :04:10. | :04:12. | |
concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of | :04:13. | :04:17. | |
this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is | :04:32. | :04:34. | |
instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively | :04:35. | :04:41. | |
slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may | :04:52. | :04:55. | |
see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room | :04:56. | :05:00. | |
to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory | :05:18. | :05:22. | |
backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well. | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just | :05:28. | :05:33. | |
social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old | :05:34. | :05:39. | |
people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words | :05:40. | :05:45. | |
this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra | :05:46. | :05:49. | |
30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think | :06:02. | :06:07. | |
Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its | :06:08. | :06:11. | |
wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might | :06:12. | :06:15. | |
have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you | :06:22. | :06:27. | |
like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in | :06:28. | :06:31. | |
the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest | :06:42. | :06:48. | |
of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He | :06:49. | :06:54. | |
clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary | :07:00. | :07:04. | |
for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original | :07:05. | :07:08. | |
George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is | :07:13. | :07:15. | |
beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot | :07:21. | :07:26. | |
of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will | :07:27. | :07:29. | |
end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the | :07:30. | :07:32. | |
budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated | :07:33. | :07:35. | |
last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that | :07:36. | :07:38. | |
will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU | :07:39. | :07:41. | |
nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove | :07:42. | :07:43. | |
the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from | :07:44. | :07:46. | |
the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make | :07:47. | :07:52. | |
a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
nationals living here. If the worst happened, | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here, | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants, | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables, | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
"Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not | :08:12. | :08:14. | |
going to say that. So, why not end the | :08:15. | :08:16. | |
uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate | :08:17. | :08:18. | |
which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's | :08:19. | :08:23. | |
what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously | :08:24. | :08:33. | |
agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral | :08:34. | :08:39. | |
decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think | :08:40. | :08:43. | |
that is the right and fair thing to do. | :08:44. | :08:43. | |
And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader | :08:44. | :08:47. | |
of the House of Commons, David Lidington. | :08:48. | :08:50. | |
Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the | :08:51. | :08:56. | |
Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was | :09:01. | :09:03. | |
my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have | :09:04. | :09:10. | |
always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that | :09:14. | :09:19. | |
the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens | :09:24. | :09:30. | |
here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December | :09:31. | :09:37. | |
European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this. | :09:38. | :09:43. | |
That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the | :09:44. | :09:47. | |
view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has | :09:48. | :09:51. | |
been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now | :10:01. | :10:04. | |
got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make | :10:05. | :10:10. | |
the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the | :10:11. | :10:18. | |
UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are | :10:19. | :10:23. | |
you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of | :10:29. | :10:33. | |
access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on... | :10:34. | :10:41. | |
But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got | :10:42. | :10:46. | |
to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1 | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture, | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the | :10:55. | :10:58. | |
short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British | :10:59. | :11:04. | |
citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British | :11:20. | :11:22. | |
citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies | :11:23. | :11:28. | |
getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to | :11:29. | :11:31. | |
something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries | :11:32. | :11:38. | |
might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you | :11:39. | :11:45. | |
frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up | :11:50. | :11:55. | |
that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue | :11:56. | :12:02. | |
that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the | :12:11. | :12:14. | |
British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not | :12:15. | :12:20. | |
come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that | :12:26. | :12:29. | |
we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a | :12:34. | :12:39. | |
reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not | :12:40. | :12:43. | |
possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if | :12:44. | :12:49. | |
there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU | :12:50. | :12:53. | |
nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and | :12:54. | :13:00. | |
face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen. | :13:01. | :13:07. | |
We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have | :13:08. | :13:12. | |
been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is | :13:26. | :13:32. | |
the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home | :13:33. | :13:38. | |
Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a | :13:39. | :13:43. | |
vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament | :13:44. | :13:46. | |
voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British | :13:47. | :13:52. | |
Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and | :13:53. | :14:00. | |
others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working | :14:01. | :14:04. | |
hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They | :14:05. | :14:07. | |
were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens, | :14:08. | :14:13. | |
more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the | :14:14. | :14:16. | |
issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the | :14:17. | :14:22. | |
Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this | :14:23. | :14:26. | |
month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely | :14:27. | :14:31. | |
hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of | :14:37. | :14:40. | |
commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an | :14:41. | :14:47. | |
unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at | :14:48. | :14:50. | |
the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that | :14:51. | :14:56. | |
sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It | :14:57. | :15:05. | |
is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the | :15:06. | :15:06. | |
end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments | :15:07. | :15:15. | |
will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at | :15:16. | :15:19. | |
the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you | :15:20. | :15:24. | |
understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is | :15:25. | :15:29. | |
going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on | :15:35. | :15:38. | |
the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to | :15:39. | :15:41. | |
consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given | :15:42. | :15:48. | |
a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have | :15:49. | :15:54. | |
negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to | :16:01. | :16:04. | |
vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem | :16:05. | :16:08. | |
with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the | :16:09. | :16:16. | |
PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27 | :16:17. | :16:23. | |
were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take | :16:24. | :16:26. | |
fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of | :16:27. | :16:29. | |
the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be | :16:30. | :16:34. | |
much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial | :16:35. | :16:40. | |
deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway, | :16:45. | :16:50. | |
that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is | :16:51. | :16:57. | |
straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is | :17:02. | :17:10. | |
irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I | :17:16. | :17:22. | |
think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I | :17:23. | :17:26. | |
hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to | :17:27. | :17:31. | |
insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and | :17:32. | :17:34. | |
negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate | :17:35. | :17:37. | |
on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal | :17:43. | :17:47. | |
with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your | :17:48. | :17:53. | |
mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as | :17:54. | :18:07. | |
you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms | :18:08. | :18:10. | |
of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term | :18:11. | :18:16. | |
trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out, | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago | :18:23. | :18:27. | |
you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big | :18:28. | :18:32. | |
difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the | :18:33. | :18:39. | |
other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort | :18:40. | :18:45. | |
this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship | :18:46. | :18:50. | |
between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and | :18:51. | :18:53. | |
those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive | :18:54. | :19:02. | |
challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that | :19:03. | :19:05. | |
was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you, | :19:06. | :19:09. | |
David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had | :19:10. | :19:10. | |
sight of a major new report The thousand-page study, | :19:11. | :19:13. | |
which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced, | :19:14. | :19:19. | |
analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences | :19:20. | :19:24. | |
committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were, | :19:25. | :19:27. | |
thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn | :19:28. | :19:29. | |
from those offences? For the police and the intelligence | :19:30. | :19:31. | |
agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think | :19:32. | :19:40. | |
tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge | :19:41. | :19:47. | |
new report which analyses every Islamism related attack | :19:48. | :19:57. | |
and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases | :19:58. | :20:00. | |
involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive | :20:01. | :20:04. | |
as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really | :20:05. | :20:06. | |
important to have an evidence base from which you draw | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
policy and policing, This isn't my opinion, | :20:10. | :20:10. | |
this the facts. This chart shows the number | :20:11. | :20:15. | |
of cases each year combined with a small number | :20:16. | :20:18. | |
of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle | :20:19. | :20:22. | |
of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings | :20:23. | :20:24. | |
in London in 2005. Offences tailed off, | :20:25. | :20:28. | |
before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
started counting. What we are seeing is a combination | :20:36. | :20:40. | |
of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing, | :20:41. | :20:43. | |
we know that from the security services and police statements, | :20:44. | :20:46. | |
but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms | :20:47. | :20:49. | |
of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have | :20:50. | :20:51. | |
facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement, | :20:52. | :21:00. | |
documents, money. About 18% of people | :21:01. | :21:03. | |
were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related | :21:04. | :21:06. | |
to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted | :21:07. | :21:13. | |
of planning attacks, although the methods have | :21:14. | :21:21. | |
changed over time. Five or six years ago, | :21:22. | :21:25. | |
we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most | :21:26. | :21:29. | |
of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession, | :21:30. | :21:31. | |
that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online | :21:32. | :21:34. | |
magazine that had specific More recently we have seen | :21:35. | :21:36. | |
Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have | :21:42. | :21:44. | |
seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her | :21:45. | :21:47. | |
husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received | :21:48. | :21:51. | |
an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing | :21:52. | :21:56. | |
number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence | :21:57. | :22:01. | |
although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out | :22:02. | :22:03. | |
by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists, | :22:04. | :22:07. | |
a report says the vast Most have their home in London, | :22:08. | :22:09. | |
around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands, | :22:10. | :22:18. | |
particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another | :22:19. | :22:21. | |
hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth | :22:22. | :22:23. | |
and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were | :22:24. | :22:30. | |
60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were | :22:31. | :22:39. | |
16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases, | :22:40. | :22:43. | |
he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting | :22:44. | :22:45. | |
is how different each story is in many ways, | :22:46. | :22:49. | |
but then within those differences So your angry young men, | :22:50. | :22:52. | |
in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience | :22:53. | :23:00. | |
abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types, | :23:01. | :23:07. | |
the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within | :23:08. | :23:08. | |
this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds | :23:09. | :23:11. | |
and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those | :23:12. | :23:17. | |
convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities | :23:18. | :23:19. | |
because they had a previous criminal record, they had | :23:20. | :23:23. | |
made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them | :23:24. | :23:26. | |
under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this | :23:27. | :23:32. | |
report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones, | :23:33. | :23:39. | |
Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen | :23:40. | :23:41. | |
from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated | :23:42. | :23:56. | |
Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist | :23:57. | :24:02. | |
terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated | :24:03. | :24:07. | |
communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the | :24:08. | :24:11. | |
wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very | :24:16. | :24:20. | |
recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was | :24:21. | :24:25. | |
that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their | :24:26. | :24:27. | |
neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many | :24:28. | :24:33. | |
participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad | :24:34. | :24:40. | |
thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population | :24:41. | :24:45. | |
is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would | :24:46. | :24:48. | |
prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason | :24:49. | :24:51. | |
they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you | :24:57. | :25:02. | |
would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more | :25:03. | :25:05. | |
diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to | :25:06. | :25:10. | |
that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the | :25:11. | :25:14. | |
challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this | :25:15. | :25:18. | |
pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young | :25:19. | :25:22. | |
Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is | :25:23. | :25:27. | |
the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB | :25:28. | :25:30. | |
attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say | :25:31. | :25:36. | |
to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The | :25:47. | :25:53. | |
report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people | :25:54. | :25:56. | |
being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those | :25:57. | :26:00. | |
convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing | :26:01. | :26:20. | |
to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of | :26:21. | :26:26. | |
work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the | :26:27. | :26:31. | |
earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course | :26:32. | :26:35. | |
subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the | :26:36. | :26:41. | |
Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but | :26:42. | :26:45. | |
there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were | :26:46. | :26:49. | |
once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough | :26:50. | :26:57. | |
to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail. | :26:58. | :27:06. | |
We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on | :27:11. | :27:15. | |
is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community | :27:16. | :27:21. | |
must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share | :27:22. | :27:25. | |
ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim | :27:26. | :27:28. | |
communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it | :27:29. | :27:33. | |
all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun? | :27:34. | :27:40. | |
Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with | :27:46. | :27:52. | |
that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't | :27:53. | :28:00. | |
bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the | :28:01. | :28:04. | |
brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other | :28:05. | :28:09. | |
organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of | :28:10. | :28:16. | |
Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous | :28:17. | :28:22. | |
unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these | :28:23. | :28:26. | |
numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our | :28:27. | :28:28. | |
intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over | :28:29. | :28:36. | |
80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police | :28:37. | :28:44. | |
have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on | :28:45. | :28:49. | |
the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also | :28:50. | :28:54. | |
changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself, | :28:55. | :29:02. | |
get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big | :29:03. | :29:06. | |
spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised | :29:07. | :29:16. | |
people, two or three people get together, do something together, | :29:17. | :29:20. | |
very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police | :29:27. | :29:32. | |
say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that | :29:33. | :29:38. | |
kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried | :29:39. | :29:42. | |
about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist | :29:43. | :29:45. | |
route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been | :29:46. | :29:51. | |
consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone | :29:52. | :29:56. | |
has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they | :29:57. | :29:59. | |
should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called | :30:00. | :30:07. | |
caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about | :30:08. | :30:09. | |
fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into | :30:10. | :30:22. | |
three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic | :30:23. | :30:26. | |
State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the | :30:27. | :30:29. | |
dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great | :30:30. | :30:34. | |
reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there | :30:35. | :30:41. | |
should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all | :30:42. | :30:47. | |
those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them | :30:48. | :30:52. | |
alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is | :30:53. | :30:58. | |
difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a | :30:59. | :31:04. | |
watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them? | :31:05. | :31:11. | |
This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and | :31:12. | :31:14. | |
our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is | :31:20. | :31:24. | |
our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at | :31:25. | :31:29. | |
the border has improved. An important question. Given your | :31:30. | :31:33. | |
experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a | :31:34. | :31:41. | |
medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one. | :31:42. | :31:45. | |
It started when I was security minister and it has been taken | :31:46. | :31:49. | |
seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the | :31:50. | :31:53. | |
Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to | :31:54. | :31:56. | |
take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it | :31:57. | :32:01. | |
Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages, | :32:02. | :32:05. | |
but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still | :32:06. | :32:08. | |
Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have | :32:09. | :32:11. | |
been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020. | :32:12. | :32:15. | |
Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility | :32:16. | :32:18. | |
said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current | :32:19. | :32:21. | |
It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22. | :32:22. | :32:27. | |
On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce | :32:28. | :32:29. | |
that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast. | :32:30. | :32:35. | |
Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level | :32:36. | :32:38. | |
of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4, | :32:39. | :32:43. | |
coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest | :32:44. | :32:46. | |
So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day | :32:47. | :32:52. | |
government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over | :32:53. | :32:56. | |
But capital spending, investment on infrastructure | :32:57. | :33:02. | |
like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow, | :33:03. | :33:06. | |
producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22. | :33:07. | :33:12. | |
The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets | :33:13. | :33:16. | |
while finding some more money for areas under serious | :33:17. | :33:19. | |
pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates. | :33:20. | :33:26. | |
We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. | :33:27. | :33:31. | |
Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR | :33:32. | :33:36. | |
predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn | :33:37. | :33:41. | |
Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It | :33:42. | :33:47. | |
is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England | :33:48. | :33:52. | |
has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a | :33:53. | :33:57. | |
growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a | :33:58. | :34:02. | |
year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next | :34:03. | :34:05. | |
year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or | :34:06. | :34:10. | |
four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the | :34:11. | :34:16. | |
OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement | :34:17. | :34:20. | |
three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other | :34:21. | :34:24. | |
forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as | :34:25. | :34:32. | |
everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its | :34:33. | :34:35. | |
growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised. | :34:36. | :34:42. | |
It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial | :34:43. | :34:45. | |
year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like | :34:46. | :34:51. | |
that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared | :34:52. | :34:56. | |
to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic | :34:57. | :35:00. | |
policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months. | :35:01. | :35:05. | |
That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so | :35:06. | :35:10. | |
close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere | :35:11. | :35:11. | |
between the budget and the Autumn number will come out somewhere | :35:12. | :35:15. | |
Statement numbers. There was a nice surprise for the Chancellor last | :35:16. | :35:18. | |
Statement numbers. There was a nice month which looked like tax revenues | :35:19. | :35:23. | |
were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real | :35:24. | :35:27. | |
question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is | :35:28. | :35:31. | |
this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If | :35:32. | :35:37. | |
growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good | :35:38. | :35:41. | |
news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in | :35:42. | :35:45. | |
the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It | :35:46. | :35:50. | |
probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible | :35:51. | :35:54. | |
outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things | :35:55. | :35:58. | |
look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will | :35:59. | :36:03. | |
still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase | :36:04. | :36:07. | |
his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a | :36:08. | :36:12. | |
couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion | :36:13. | :36:18. | |
more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite | :36:19. | :36:25. | |
constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019. | :36:26. | :36:31. | |
That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and | :36:32. | :36:36. | |
is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as | :36:37. | :36:41. | |
you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic | :36:42. | :36:46. | |
reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some | :36:47. | :36:50. | |
headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending | :36:51. | :36:55. | |
cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things | :36:56. | :36:58. | |
have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in | :36:59. | :37:04. | |
the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the | :37:05. | :37:10. | |
Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is | :37:11. | :37:15. | |
hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of | :37:16. | :37:20. | |
income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for | :37:21. | :37:26. | |
ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has | :37:27. | :37:29. | |
reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for | :37:30. | :37:35. | |
him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax | :37:36. | :37:40. | |
burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its | :37:41. | :37:45. | |
highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through | :37:46. | :37:49. | |
straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of | :37:50. | :37:53. | |
insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and | :37:54. | :37:59. | |
that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty, | :38:00. | :38:04. | |
but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole | :38:05. | :38:08. | |
and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase | :38:09. | :38:15. | |
fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really | :38:16. | :38:22. | |
keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the | :38:23. | :38:28. | |
next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has | :38:29. | :38:33. | |
had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being | :38:34. | :38:35. | |
with us. It's just gone 11.35, | :38:36. | :38:37. | |
you're watching the Sunday Politics. Good morning and welcome | :38:38. | :38:46. | |
to Sunday Politics Scotland. Finding their voice - | :38:47. | :38:47. | |
is the quiet Conservative I think conservatives are starting | :38:48. | :39:03. | |
to become more vocal and open, I think that is to do with the | :39:04. | :39:10. | |
detoxification of the Conservative brand. | :39:11. | :39:13. | |
I'll be speaking to the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, | :39:14. | :39:15. | |
Ruth Davidson, following their conference in Glasgow. | :39:16. | :39:17. | |
And is Scotland's education really bottom of the class? | :39:18. | :39:19. | |
Saying you're a Conservative out loud hasn't always been a popular | :39:20. | :39:23. | |
thing to do in Scotland, but are things changing? | :39:24. | :39:25. | |
The party's been winning new support from people who are opposed | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
to another independence referendum - and that was the key | :39:29. | :39:30. | |
message at this week's Scottish Conservative conference. | :39:31. | :39:32. | |
In a moment we'll be speaking to the party leader, Ruth Davidson, | :39:33. | :39:35. | |
but first, Andrew Black's been trying to find out if the phenomenon | :39:36. | :39:38. | |
known as the Shy Tory is becoming a thing of the past. | :39:39. | :39:48. | |
After years in the wilderness, the Scottish Conservative Party is now | :39:49. | :39:56. | |
having its most successful period in 60 years. More than doubled its | :39:57. | :39:59. | |
number of seats in the last Holyrood election, and thanks to a collapse | :40:00. | :40:02. | |
in the labour vote, it has now become the main opposition party. | :40:03. | :40:07. | |
However, being a Conservative voter has not always been fashionable, | :40:08. | :40:11. | |
especially in Scotland, which has given rise to the term Shy Tory, but | :40:12. | :40:22. | |
given the new-found success, does that mean its supporters are more | :40:23. | :40:25. | |
willing to talk about who the vote for? People were reluctant to say | :40:26. | :40:28. | |
that they were Tory, or that they would vote Conservative, but I | :40:29. | :40:32. | |
think, as you see, they are being more open about it. It is not a bad | :40:33. | :40:36. | |
thing, I have always admitted it to my friends and family. I am only 19 | :40:37. | :40:39. | |
so I have only managed to vote Conservative ones, but they are | :40:40. | :40:41. | |
starting to become more vocal and open, I think that's maybe to do | :40:42. | :40:46. | |
with the detoxification of the Conservative brand after the dark | :40:47. | :40:51. | |
days, if you can call it that, of the New Labour Erath. Until recently | :40:52. | :40:59. | |
we were shy, retiring, heading behind-the-scenes supporters. Even | :41:00. | :41:07. | |
the word Tory, I shied from. And in Scotland it is very much seen as | :41:08. | :41:15. | |
elitist. I think that is why everyone is quite. But as you can | :41:16. | :41:18. | |
see from the conference there is a lot more younger people coming | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
through. Use of the end of the Shy Tory was welcomed by even some of | :41:24. | :41:27. | |
the party's strongest critics. Any politician who has the bottle to | :41:28. | :41:37. | |
publicly stop and put their position,... They had the courage to | :41:38. | :41:45. | |
come out and say, actually, these are my politics, these are the | :41:46. | :41:52. | |
issues we need to debate. But for the Conservative leadership, there | :41:53. | :41:55. | |
is more to it than that. The result of the EU referendum has caused | :41:56. | :42:00. | |
divisions in the party. And let us never stop making loudly and clearly | :42:01. | :42:07. | |
the positive, optimistic and passionate case for our precious | :42:08. | :42:13. | |
union of nations and of people. Then there is the Conservatives' ongoing | :42:14. | :42:17. | |
fight against the second independence referendum. Come the | :42:18. | :42:20. | |
party capitalise on recent election success? We will know after the | :42:21. | :42:29. | |
council elections in two months. The leader of the Scottish Conservatives | :42:30. | :42:33. | |
joins me now. Ruth Davidson, can I just ask you about something that | :42:34. | :42:37. | |
has come up this morning? There is a House of Commons cross-party | :42:38. | :42:42. | |
committee on Brexit, which produced a report saying the British | :42:43. | :42:45. | |
government should unilaterally safeguard the position of EU | :42:46. | :42:51. | |
nationals living in Britain. Is that something you would support? I have | :42:52. | :42:55. | |
said from the start I want to make sure people have the assurance they | :42:56. | :42:58. | |
need. That is why I was so pleased that the Prime Minister tried ahead | :42:59. | :43:03. | |
of Article 50 to get that agreement, not just for EU nationals here, but | :43:04. | :43:07. | |
for Brits living abroad as well. I thought it was a real shame that | :43:08. | :43:11. | |
other countries in the EU did not want to do that. But when the Prime | :43:12. | :43:15. | |
Minister laid out her 12 point plan, I was pleased she had it in there as | :43:16. | :43:18. | |
one of our key objectives and one she wanted to get done first. But do | :43:19. | :43:23. | |
you agree with the House of Commons cross-party committee that Britain | :43:24. | :43:27. | |
should unilaterally guarantee the position? I have not read the report | :43:28. | :43:31. | |
to which you are referring, so I am not sure what is in it. I am not in | :43:32. | :43:35. | |
the House of Commons. Sorry about that. I want to make sure we have | :43:36. | :43:39. | |
the insurance people need right here. I am pleased to have seen | :43:40. | :43:43. | |
David Davis has come out and said four people already living here, who | :43:44. | :43:47. | |
have been here for a number of years, the scaremongering that has | :43:48. | :43:50. | |
been going on that there may be some change to their circumstances, is | :43:51. | :43:54. | |
not true. And the query assurances that the Prime Minister has made, | :43:55. | :43:57. | |
wanting to get this done before Article 50, but it is also one of | :43:58. | :44:02. | |
the things she gets done first. Shortly after the referendum last | :44:03. | :44:05. | |
year you said you wanted guarantees for EU nationals living in Britain | :44:06. | :44:11. | |
and you wanted them, your phrase was, pretty quick. You still do not | :44:12. | :44:16. | |
have them. The Prime Minister started to get it -- try to get it | :44:17. | :44:22. | |
done ahead of Article 50. But the Lords are seeing that they want | :44:23. | :44:26. | |
Britain to just do it unilaterally. But I think a House of Commons | :44:27. | :44:30. | |
committee, I absolutely respect it, I have not read that report, I do | :44:31. | :44:36. | |
not sit in the House of Commons, but the Prime Minister has to look at | :44:37. | :44:42. | |
the 2.7 million Brits who live abroad and get assurances for them. | :44:43. | :44:46. | |
She wants to get it now, before the process starts. It is a real shame | :44:47. | :44:49. | |
that other countries said no to that. She also said it is at the top | :44:50. | :44:54. | |
of the 12 point plan to what she wants to get done first. It is a | :44:55. | :44:59. | |
shame that other countries said no to do this right now. It is | :45:00. | :45:02. | |
important that the UK Government has come out strongly to see those | :45:03. | :45:05. | |
people living here, do not listen to the scaremongering, it is not going | :45:06. | :45:11. | |
to change. The Scottish Government has submitted a paper of which the | :45:12. | :45:15. | |
British government is considering on Brexit and it proposes a mechanism | :45:16. | :45:18. | |
British government is considering on by which Scotland can stay in the | :45:19. | :45:22. | |
European free trade area, and therefore the European economic | :45:23. | :45:26. | |
area, and get access to the single market while remaining in the UK. Do | :45:27. | :45:30. | |
you think there is any merit on what they Scottish Government is | :45:31. | :45:34. | |
proposing? The Scottish Government paper had a number of | :45:35. | :45:38. | |
recommendations, and some of them made it into the 12 point plan. But | :45:39. | :45:44. | |
what about their preferred option? No in the Scottish Conservative | :45:45. | :45:48. | |
Party, we ordered an expert panel review looking at trade | :45:49. | :45:52. | |
specifically, and they came to a slightly different view on what they | :45:53. | :45:56. | |
thought was best because the most important issue for Scotland is | :45:57. | :46:00. | |
making sure we stay part of our biggest trading area. Again, I come | :46:01. | :46:09. | |
back to this point, if the Scottish Government's attempts at getting the | :46:10. | :46:12. | |
British government to agree and negotiate on its behalf the | :46:13. | :46:18. | |
particular deal they propose, do you think that is actually going to | :46:19. | :46:24. | |
happen or is the British government, in your view, or should they say no? | :46:25. | :46:29. | |
There are ongoing conversations. That paper had a number of | :46:30. | :46:36. | |
recommendations on it... But I am asking about the key one? The Welsh | :46:37. | :46:47. | |
government joined Labour... The review that came back last week for | :46:48. | :46:50. | |
us took a different course. Having read the work that has gone on, it | :46:51. | :46:55. | |
was led by a former ambassador, a chap that had run the fiscal | :46:56. | :47:01. | |
Association for the time, said there were more important things to look | :47:02. | :47:04. | |
after than what the Scottish Government has said. There is no | :47:05. | :47:06. | |
surprise to any of your viewers that Nicola Sturgeon and I have | :47:07. | :47:21. | |
disagreements about a number of things. Not least some of the things | :47:22. | :47:24. | |
she is asking the UK Government to consider. You have said before on | :47:25. | :47:26. | |
this programme that you accept the Scottish Government to hold another | :47:27. | :47:29. | |
independence referendum, but you do not think they should do it, and you | :47:30. | :47:31. | |
have also said the British government should not block the | :47:32. | :47:33. | |
Scottish Government for doing that. But I'm curious, do you think there | :47:34. | :47:39. | |
is a case for the British government to say you can have a referendum, | :47:40. | :47:44. | |
but not while we are negotiating Brexit, it might be in the interests | :47:45. | :47:47. | |
of everyone if you wait till we know what the Brexit deal is? When you | :47:48. | :47:52. | |
ask that question on a day when yet another poll shows that support for | :47:53. | :47:55. | |
the second independence referendum has fallen, today's poll says it is | :47:56. | :48:00. | |
only a quarter of Scots who would like to be dragged back to that | :48:01. | :48:04. | |
divisive situation. I think the question should be for Nicola | :48:05. | :48:05. | |
Sturgeon, are you going to stand question should be for Nicola | :48:06. | :48:14. | |
up... OK, we will talk to her on the occasion of her party conference. I | :48:15. | :48:19. | |
am asking you, you have a right to hold a referendum, but not while we | :48:20. | :48:25. | |
are negotiating a Brexit deal, do you think that is what the UK | :48:26. | :48:31. | |
Government should say? Myself and the Prime Minister have also agreed | :48:32. | :48:36. | |
and recognised and said the rate to self-determination, which is why in | :48:37. | :48:44. | |
2012 bid was that -- there was a clear mandate, and the process | :48:45. | :48:49. | |
happened. But the majority of the people in Scotland do not want this. | :48:50. | :48:52. | |
Again you're really not addressing... Nicola Sturgeon argues | :48:53. | :48:58. | |
she will be able to hold a referendum whenever she likes. | :48:59. | :49:03. | |
Should she? That is unfair to say I'm not answering the question. | :49:04. | :49:05. | |
There could be another referendum, but the question for the First | :49:06. | :49:10. | |
Minister is, should there be another referendum? At the moment, when she | :49:11. | :49:14. | |
has no clear mandate, she lost her majority, and the majority of Scots | :49:15. | :49:18. | |
do not want it she should not have another referendum. She argued she | :49:19. | :49:24. | |
should be able to have one whenever she likes. Should she? The power for | :49:25. | :49:25. | |
holding a referendum is held at she likes. Should she? The power for | :49:26. | :49:35. | |
Westminster, so in terms of whether a hypothetical referendum to happen, | :49:36. | :49:39. | |
she would still need the agreement for those powers to Passover, and if | :49:40. | :49:43. | |
she wants to change that she should have put that forward in this myth | :49:44. | :49:47. | |
report, to see that the Scottish Government should be in charge of | :49:48. | :49:52. | |
holding a future referendum. In terms of, am I going to try and help | :49:53. | :49:58. | |
the SNP do what they have been doing for the last nine months -- 12 | :49:59. | :50:04. | |
months and make it seem another referendum is inevitable, and that | :50:05. | :50:07. | |
is not my job to do that, I am opposing this, I am on the side of | :50:08. | :50:11. | |
the majority of Scots. If she does try to hold one, she will take a | :50:12. | :50:15. | |
massive hit from it because Scots do not want dragged back there, they | :50:16. | :50:18. | |
have told us time and again they do not want dragged back. If she moves | :50:19. | :50:26. | |
against the public opinion, she will pay a heavy price. Can I assume you | :50:27. | :50:29. | |
would not be in favour of another referendum being held on the basis | :50:30. | :50:35. | |
of yes is pro-independence and no is to stay in the UK? My focus is to | :50:36. | :50:40. | |
stop rendering -- referendum to happen because we made a decision | :50:41. | :50:46. | |
three years angle, and we were told it would last a generation. I will | :50:47. | :50:50. | |
not start answering hypothetical questions about the wording of a | :50:51. | :50:54. | |
question I do not want asked is going to be. I am not playing that | :50:55. | :50:55. | |
game. One of the stipulations is that both | :50:56. | :51:08. | |
sides would respect the result. Do you Scottish Government and SNP have | :51:09. | :51:12. | |
breached that? I don't hear that respect of the result. I genuinely | :51:13. | :51:19. | |
do not. I think the first sign of just how the pursuit they were going | :51:20. | :51:24. | |
to do, just how cynical the pursuit was the second independence | :51:25. | :51:27. | |
referendum was going to be, we saw on the day after the Brexit vote. | :51:28. | :51:31. | |
Sturgeon stood up and the votes were still being counted and she said she | :51:32. | :51:37. | |
had already instructed civil servants in Scotland to draw up a | :51:38. | :51:42. | |
second Referendum Bill. She did want to thought of the public or listen | :51:43. | :51:45. | |
to them all come to Parliament, she had already instructed that before | :51:46. | :51:48. | |
people had even had their breakfasting on to work that day. It | :51:49. | :51:54. | |
is absolutely cynical and I think she'll pay heavy price for it. | :51:55. | :51:59. | |
There's a perception, not just amongst the SNP supporters of | :52:00. | :52:02. | |
independence, that the British Government has not been settled in | :52:03. | :52:04. | |
the way they've played this and that it could come to Scotland say, look, | :52:05. | :52:11. | |
you've got an interest in this and here is what we are proposing to | :52:12. | :52:16. | |
devolve to Scotland as part of the repatriation of power from Brussels. | :52:17. | :52:19. | |
I know you will say that is still up for grabs, but the perception is the | :52:20. | :52:22. | |
British Government is coming over and saying no. Do you think there | :52:23. | :52:34. | |
should be a bit more imaginative in making it much more difficult for | :52:35. | :52:38. | |
Nicola Sturgeon to call and the referendum by saying, look here is a | :52:39. | :52:39. | |
shed load of things we could be beat shed load of things we could be beat | :52:40. | :52:43. | |
-- repatriated and it's the interest the people of Scotland and let us | :52:44. | :52:49. | |
get your response to that? I think the way you've asked that question, | :52:50. | :52:52. | |
so the difference between the UK and the Scottish Government and the | :52:53. | :52:57. | |
narrow political dull that fronts and fuels everything the SNP do. And | :52:58. | :53:03. | |
that practical considerations are people working in Scotland and | :53:04. | :53:05. | |
trying to make a living here that the UK Government is trying to | :53:06. | :53:10. | |
protect. In the Prime Minister's speech, she said not a single power | :53:11. | :53:14. | |
being held in Government is going anywhere else. In the first | :53:15. | :53:20. | |
instance, power coming out Brussels go back to the member state and then | :53:21. | :53:25. | |
a mature happen about... We are out of time. Quick one word answers, | :53:26. | :53:34. | |
please. If there's another independence referendum, you have | :53:35. | :53:38. | |
said the SNP will take a hit. How much do you think this day side | :53:39. | :53:47. | |
would win by? The economic case... There is every opportunity. And you | :53:48. | :53:52. | |
will be the next First Minister? That is what we are working towards | :53:53. | :53:56. | |
in 2021. To be a proper, professional ten to Government, a | :53:57. | :54:00. | |
real choice for Scotland and one opposes businesses and people first | :54:01. | :54:03. | |
and not a narrow political ideology of independence first. What you | :54:04. | :54:10. | |
didn't say that was yes, I will be the First Minister! Well, come back | :54:11. | :54:18. | |
to the 2021. The hard work starts now, four and a half years out from | :54:19. | :54:22. | |
the election and we will be fits to fight for that election and we will | :54:23. | :54:26. | |
be a proper alternative Government for Scotland. Ruth Davidson, thank | :54:27. | :54:27. | |
you. Nicola Sturgeon said education | :54:28. | :54:31. | |
would be the defining mission But that mission came under pressure | :54:32. | :54:34. | |
at First Minister's Questions this week as opposition leader | :54:35. | :54:38. | |
after opposition leader had a pop at the First Minister | :54:39. | :54:40. | |
over Scotland's schools. She staked a reputational reforming | :54:41. | :54:54. | |
the schools of Scotland and what have we seen? Literacy standards | :54:55. | :54:59. | |
have slipped, numerous is standards also, curriculum for excellence is | :55:00. | :55:03. | |
failing and now we seen her Education Secretary stalling. She | :55:04. | :55:05. | |
keeps putting at the referendum on the front foot, but everyone else on | :55:06. | :55:15. | |
the back burner. Standardised assessments are being introduced in | :55:16. | :55:20. | |
teacher judgments and there is more data than ever before been published | :55:21. | :55:23. | |
so we can determine how well schools are doing and what more we need to | :55:24. | :55:28. | |
do to support those who work in the front line in our education system. | :55:29. | :55:35. | |
Education budgets are being cut to for years. Over 4000 teachers and a | :55:36. | :55:40. | |
thousand support staff. Pico 150,000 student places in our college. He | :55:41. | :55:45. | |
cut university budgets and slashed fronts for students as well. He now | :55:46. | :55:49. | |
faces the consequences of his own decisions. School league tables have | :55:50. | :56:00. | |
the information here. It is published by the Scottish | :56:01. | :56:03. | |
Government. Our own Government has published this information on | :56:04. | :56:09. | |
experimental information. National school league tables. She promised | :56:10. | :56:13. | |
that would never, ever happen. But that is exactly what is happening. | :56:14. | :56:19. | |
Those other politicians, but what are the issues facing education in | :56:20. | :56:28. | |
Scotland? Lindsay Paterson gave his views on some of the burning | :56:29. | :56:39. | |
questions. The problem in a sense is no one clearly knows, because the | :56:40. | :56:43. | |
problems are so immense. The fundamental thing that most changes | :56:44. | :56:46. | |
what looked -- what children are learning. All the evidence is that | :56:47. | :56:50. | |
things we've been trying to teach them for 15 years or more are | :56:51. | :56:56. | |
causing them to earn less than their counterparts in other countries. I | :56:57. | :57:07. | |
can understand why they've decided to postpone this bill, because being | :57:08. | :57:11. | |
a large number of responses to the consultations on it. On the other | :57:12. | :57:14. | |
hand, it is about the structures of education are not addressing the | :57:15. | :57:17. | |
fundamental point, which is the quality of the curriculum and an age | :57:18. | :57:20. | |
of the learning that the children are doing. The important reforms are | :57:21. | :57:25. | |
what is going to be done about the curriculum assessment and | :57:26. | :57:36. | |
attainment. All the evidence suggests the curriculum for | :57:37. | :57:39. | |
excellence is at the core of the problem and that is the reason why | :57:40. | :57:42. | |
we seen quite a drastic fall in the level of attainment of Scottish | :57:43. | :57:45. | |
children compared with a pastime compared with other countries now. | :57:46. | :57:48. | |
We know from lots of international research that the kind of curriculum | :57:49. | :57:52. | |
that curriculum for excellence is, that is an emphasis on skills rather | :57:53. | :57:57. | |
than knowledge, is ultimately quite bad and even disastrous for the | :57:58. | :58:02. | |
attainment of children. So, very quickly, it ought to be learned in | :58:03. | :58:05. | |
Scotland from these international studies. The whole point of this is | :58:06. | :58:10. | |
misconceived Amanita fundamentally revised what is being done. -- | :58:11. | :58:16. | |
fundamentally revised what is being done. The attainment gap has never | :58:17. | :58:24. | |
been completely closed in any period since the beginning of the 20th | :58:25. | :58:27. | |
century. So the chance of Scotland, daily closing it is very small. But | :58:28. | :58:31. | |
what can be done is make progress toward that. You can provide more | :58:32. | :58:35. | |
opportunities, emphasise the things that would enable children are | :58:36. | :58:38. | |
living in poverty ought to circumstances to do better than they | :58:39. | :58:43. | |
have in the past. They can be some progress, but to set up targets of | :58:44. | :58:47. | |
completely ending the attainment gap is a realistic, unless of course, | :58:48. | :58:50. | |
there is to be a change in the quality of what is learned and the | :58:51. | :58:54. | |
criteria of what counts as having learnt it. In other words, dumbing | :58:55. | :58:57. | |
down rather making sure everyone learns the same kind of quality | :58:58. | :59:09. | |
things. Standardised assessments are the only way we can get object | :59:10. | :59:12. | |
things. Standardised assessments are neutral scientific evidence on what | :59:13. | :59:15. | |
is going on. They are not the owner of measuring progress, but without | :59:16. | :59:19. | |
them, any other way will be purely subjective and wouldn't get enough | :59:20. | :59:24. | |
hard evidence for policymakers. So standardised assessments of the way | :59:25. | :59:28. | |
in which education can achieve the same kind of objective, and | :59:29. | :59:35. | |
neutrality, that we would expect of a new scientific project. It has to | :59:36. | :59:38. | |
be that kind of evidence if we are not so just speculate on what | :59:39. | :59:41. | |
children are achieving rather than measuring it. League tables can | :59:42. | :59:52. | |
become controversial and if they are used purely for competitive | :59:53. | :59:56. | |
purposes, they are rather dangerous. But that's not the league tables as | :59:57. | :00:01. | |
such, but the ways in which they are used in public debate and in | :00:02. | :00:04. | |
newspapers, media and conversations amongst parents and so on. The | :00:05. | :00:09. | |
tables themselves or the publishing of information and the longer that | :00:10. | :00:13. | |
is complex and addresses all the different temperatures of education | :00:14. | :00:17. | |
and the set of context, there is no more reason to object to information | :00:18. | :00:21. | |
on schools than would be to object to informational universities. -- | :00:22. | :00:25. | |
information on universities. Well, to disucss this, | :00:26. | :00:27. | |
earlier I spoke to James Dornan from the SNP, who's also convenor | :00:28. | :00:30. | |
of Holyrood's Education Committee, and Alex Cole-Hamilton | :00:31. | :00:32. | |
from the Lib Dems. Alex Cole-Hamilton, what you make of | :00:33. | :00:43. | |
the delay in the education bill? It is astonishing but not surprising. | :00:44. | :00:48. | |
We have local Government elections coming up and are a lot of questions | :00:49. | :00:52. | |
record on education. It isn't in the record on education. It isn't in the | :00:53. | :00:56. | |
-- Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to be judged on, yet consistently, | :00:57. | :01:00. | |
this Government have failed the children in Scotland that they are | :01:01. | :01:02. | |
sliding down the international league tables as a result of the | :01:03. | :01:07. | |
scores that were announced earlier this year and it is a real millstone | :01:08. | :01:12. | |
around the neck of the SNP. So it's not surprising it has been delayed. | :01:13. | :01:16. | |
But were always demanded that politicians should think about | :01:17. | :01:20. | |
things and listen to what the people are saying to them, rather than just | :01:21. | :01:24. | |
coming up with snap headlines and John Swinney argues that it will be | :01:25. | :01:30. | |
perfectly sensible to say, I've got a response to this may change my | :01:31. | :01:34. | |
ideas on it, so I want a bit more time. That would have currency if | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
the SNP were listening. But if you look at the standardised assessments | :01:40. | :01:42. | |
they want to bring in, which is effectively national testing by any | :01:43. | :01:51. | |
other name, they are going people like the EIS who said it will crush | :01:52. | :01:54. | |
staff and pupils alike. Yes, if I believe the Education | :01:55. | :02:10. | |
Secretary was listening to professionals, then full marks to | :02:11. | :02:13. | |
him, but he is not. And I think national testing is a perfect | :02:14. | :02:19. | |
example of that. James Dornan, I assume you would not claim that the | :02:20. | :02:21. | |
record on education is anything other than pretty poor at the | :02:22. | :02:27. | |
moment. Do you think John Swinney is right to take a bit more time to | :02:28. | :02:31. | |
consider what to do about it? It is more important to get things right | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
than do things early. You take the time to make sure what is going to | :02:36. | :02:40. | |
come out in the bill is exactly what the Cabinet secretaries looking for | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
and that what the people of Scotland require. I heard Alec talking about | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
the fight the Tories are in favour of it doesn't necessarily mean it's | :02:49. | :02:51. | |
a bad thing, but he is part of a Government that spent... I was | :02:52. | :02:55. | |
wondering how long it will take you to mention that. It's more than to | :02:56. | :03:01. | |
sentences. That because I'm a gentleman thought I would | :03:02. | :03:02. | |
sentences. That because I'm a other point first. Of course the | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
Cabinet Secretary is right to take his time. But also, if we talk about | :03:07. | :03:15. | |
standardised assessments... Right, OK. They said in 2015 we needed a | :03:16. | :03:25. | |
robust system and had to learn about the learning in progress, so this is | :03:26. | :03:30. | |
the only way to do that. It has today standardised system right | :03:31. | :03:33. | |
across the whole of education. We have to know how children are doing. | :03:34. | :03:36. | |
Be that only works... What I have to know how children are doing. | :03:37. | :03:41. | |
still unclear about is that as you do tests and you produce the results | :03:42. | :03:45. | |
and publish them in whatever way, school by school or whatever, then | :03:46. | :03:50. | |
fine. But there was talk that these would not be raw results, but there | :03:51. | :03:54. | |
be mixed with teacher assessments, which makes the whole thing entirely | :03:55. | :04:00. | |
subjective. Which is to be? Which do you think it should be? The | :04:01. | :04:05. | |
important thing is that we get the information and we have the | :04:06. | :04:12. | |
information. It has to be that the information... We have to know how | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
different schools are doing. We have to have pupils are doing in terms of | :04:19. | :04:23. | |
where they are in the system. But my point is if you have an element of | :04:24. | :04:26. | |
teacher assessment in the results, then that is what you publish. | :04:27. | :04:29. | |
You're not getting that data you are talking about, because... Be them as | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
a separation between both of those things. You have to have the actual | :04:35. | :04:41. | |
data. What is wrong with that? If you publish date of that kind in any | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
format that will invariably lead to a league tables, as we saw under the | :04:46. | :04:49. | |
Conservative Government under Margaret Thatcher. The result of | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
that and if you listen to teaching unions and teachers, you can see | :04:54. | :04:56. | |
pressure on staff within primary schools and hot housing kids so that | :04:57. | :05:02. | |
they can make sure their school shows up favourably on the league | :05:03. | :05:09. | |
tables. I can see why some people in the trade unions may be against it | :05:10. | :05:14. | |
because it puts pressure on them if they are not performing well. I | :05:15. | :05:16. | |
cannot see that argument applied to they are not performing well. I | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
either the interests of the children or their parents. Why is it not | :05:23. | :05:26. | |
reasonable for parents to want to know how their children's School | :05:27. | :05:29. | |
compares against other similar schools? It is reasonable for | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
appearance to want to know how their children are getting on in class, | :05:33. | :05:35. | |
but you would also want to know that your children are not being | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
artificially hot housed to one single day of exams, when the | :05:40. | :05:44. | |
curriculum for excellence... Your argument would make sense if we | :05:45. | :05:49. | |
said, standardised tests are not the way to do this, this is our version | :05:50. | :06:11. | |
of how we will compare schools with others so we know which are | :06:12. | :06:22. | |
performing well and which badly, but you do not have any alternative | :06:23. | :06:31. | |
suggestion. Take Edinburgh, for example, there has been standardised | :06:32. | :06:33. | |
assessment in Edinburgh for a while, but that is not published in league | :06:34. | :06:38. | |
tables that invariably what the government are planning will be to, | :06:39. | :06:40. | |
but it gives educational authorities and schools and understanding -- and | :06:41. | :06:43. | |
understanding of what is happening within schools. So you're saying | :06:44. | :06:45. | |
that standardised testing is OK, and league tables ROK as long as the | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
secret? Not at all. This is a national framework. I am talking | :06:49. | :06:50. | |
about the way individually benchmark the progress of the individual | :06:51. | :06:52. | |
children within schools. This is not a secret. It is used within schools | :06:53. | :06:55. | |
to see what need certain classes and individual children have, but let us | :06:56. | :06:57. | |
remember the pressure we are putting our kids under. A charity which | :06:58. | :07:00. | |
deals with the mental health primary school children published a survey | :07:01. | :07:02. | |
which said 60% of primary seven children worried about something. | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
Mango I would suggest that it is a disaster, the system has been geared | :07:07. | :07:09. | |
to fail the children when the exact opposite is the case. We cannot talk | :07:10. | :07:14. | |
about pigeonholing children while at the same time having curriculum for | :07:15. | :07:17. | |
excellence in there. It makes no sense. But doesn't your idea of | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
standardised testing, the Conservatives are calling for the -- | :07:23. | :07:27. | |
a review of curriculum for excellence. Arguably that has | :07:28. | :07:31. | |
already been implemented by John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon because | :07:32. | :07:34. | |
the standardised testing singles against the grain of curriculum for | :07:35. | :07:39. | |
excellence. Perhaps correctly, given the problems with it, but it is not | :07:40. | :07:43. | |
consistent with its. The whole thing was supposed to be about individual | :07:44. | :07:46. | |
assessment, there was even talk in primary schools of children taking | :07:47. | :07:53. | |
part in their own assessment. That not fit at all with standardised | :07:54. | :07:55. | |
testing in primary schools. Curriculum for excellence is about | :07:56. | :07:58. | |
giving the broader base and that easier way of learning for the | :07:59. | :08:02. | |
child. But we still have to know that insurgents subjects that | :08:03. | :08:10. | |
children are reaching specific benchmarks we can target resources | :08:11. | :08:15. | |
where they are required. Curriculum for excellence has proven to be a | :08:16. | :08:18. | |
great success and trendy schools, it is starting to show it can be a | :08:19. | :08:23. | |
great success in primary schools -- a great success in secondary | :08:24. | :08:26. | |
schools. We have to leave it there. Now time to look back | :08:27. | :08:28. | |
at the week gone by and ahead to the next seven | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
days, in The Week Ahead. This week, I'm joined | :08:32. | :08:37. | |
by the journalist Kathleen Nutt, who writes for the National among | :08:38. | :08:39. | |
others, and the political David, this referendum thing, | :08:40. | :08:51. | |
something has got to give. Theresa May says no, it should not happen, | :08:52. | :08:58. | |
and Nicola Sturgeon increasingly stridently saying yes, it will. What | :08:59. | :09:08. | |
gives? In two weeks Article 50 will be triggered, and we have the SNP | :09:09. | :09:10. | |
conference. It is unlikely that Nicola Sturgeon will use the | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
conference to formally call for another referendum, but she might | :09:16. | :09:16. | |
conference to formally call for request the power to do so, but | :09:17. | :09:19. | |
things do feel like they are coming to a head. There was an element of | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
doublespeak that the Scottish Tory conference which I find interesting. | :09:24. | :09:29. | |
Speaker after speaker said we will oppose a referendum, we will do | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
everything possible to stop a referendum, but every journalist | :09:36. | :09:36. | |
knows behind the scenes they are effectively saying they have no | :09:37. | :09:39. | |
choice to agree -- back to agree to one if it is requested, but they | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
will attach caveats. The caveats being to do with timing? Yes, timing | :09:45. | :09:53. | |
is the crucial thing. Some people think it should be after Brexit. I | :09:54. | :10:03. | |
think after Theresa May's speech on Friday, the chances of a second | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
independence referendum are much stronger now. I think she came up to | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
Scotland and gave the SNP a hard time for raising the issue of | :10:15. | :10:25. | |
constitutional politics,... I think it was not politically astute of her | :10:26. | :10:32. | |
to raise the prospect of power is coming back in devolved areas, that | :10:33. | :10:39. | |
these powers over agriculture, environment and fisheries would stay | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
with Westminster. Rather than coming up to Holyrood. This would be | :10:45. | :10:50. | |
interpreted as a weakening Scotland at a time when she wants to | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
strengthen the union, which I think will backfire on her. Conservatives | :10:55. | :11:00. | |
like Ruth Davidson and her colleagues, they say, it is not fair | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
to say that, when I say, could you not be a bit more imaginative about | :11:05. | :11:08. | |
that? Would it not be possible for the British government to say, this | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
is a fantastic opportunity, here is what we're proposing, and challenge | :11:14. | :11:17. | |
the Scottish Nationalists to reject it. Do you not think they could be | :11:18. | :11:22. | |
more imaginative? On the powers? On they could talk about immigration. | :11:23. | :11:28. | |
Politicians could always be what imaginative. They are coming over as | :11:29. | :11:34. | |
just seeing no. They are hamstrung by promises made by leave | :11:35. | :11:38. | |
campaigners, when they got carried away saying, there will be all these | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
amazing powers. Now they are pulling back slightly. I find it slightly | :11:44. | :11:46. | |
difficult to believe that a second independence referendum will turn on | :11:47. | :11:52. | |
agricultural and fishery subsidies. And the weakening of devolution. It | :11:53. | :11:58. | |
is more nuanced than that. It is more in the remake of shared powers, | :11:59. | :12:04. | |
and about a change of middleman, really. Now we're leaving the | :12:05. | :12:11. | |
European Union, the subsidies and so one... In truth it is fiendishly | :12:12. | :12:14. | |
difficult and can be interpreted in any way you like, obviously, but I | :12:15. | :12:21. | |
think for most voters, they will not be altogether interested. On the | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
other side, just some obvious examples, there might be a case for | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
the British government saying we have to have control over | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
agriculture for example in times of emergency we need food security. | :12:34. | :12:39. | |
There are also arguments about common standards across the UK, | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
which is in the interest of Scottish Parliament cos you are exposed | :12:45. | :12:50. | |
mainly to England. I think the SNP and Scottish Government would agree | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
with that, they will work together on the shared powers, but at the | :12:55. | :13:01. | |
same time, we're talking about an independence referendum. That does | :13:02. | :13:03. | |
not necessarily need to happen if Theresa May actually agreed to your | :13:04. | :13:09. | |
proposals, which would allow Scottish to remain. Can Nicola | :13:10. | :13:15. | |
Sturgeon backdown on a referendum? Scottish to remain. Can Nicola | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
She has made it very difficult for her to backdown. If she does, she | :13:21. | :13:24. | |
will lose a tremendous amount of face, like Gordon Brown in 2007 with | :13:25. | :13:30. | |
the election. I think the pressure is on balance for calling another | :13:31. | :13:34. | |
one. Can she backdown? If Theresa May promises to keep Scotland in the | :13:35. | :13:40. | |
single market, in a special Brexit deal, but otherwise no. | :13:41. | :13:42. | |
All right, we have to leave it there. | :13:43. | :13:45. | |
I'll be back at the same time next week. | :13:46. | :13:49. | |
The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest. | :13:50. | :13:57. |