05/03/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland


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05/03/2017

The latest political news, interviews and debate in Scotland, from Sunday 5 March.


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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:34.:00:38.

The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree

:00:39.:00:41.

in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".

:00:42.:00:44.

But will there be more money for social care and to ease

:00:45.:00:46.

The UK terror threat is currently severe,

:00:47.:00:52.

but where is that threat coming from?

:00:53.:00:55.

We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every

:00:56.:00:57.

Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.

:00:58.:01:02.

What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?

:01:03.:01:08.

The government was defeated in the Lords on its

:01:09.:01:10.

We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers

:01:11.:01:15.

And coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland.

:01:16.:01:19.

The quiet Conservatives are finding their voice.

:01:20.:01:21.

I'll be speaking to their Scottish Leader Ruth Davidson.

:01:22.:01:34.

All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.

:01:35.:01:37.

Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed

:01:38.:01:40.

to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.

:01:41.:01:44.

Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,

:01:45.:01:47.

so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.

:01:48.:01:50.

Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

:01:51.:01:52.

They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

:01:53.:01:58.

Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial

:01:59.:02:03.

statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget

:02:04.:02:05.

for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn

:02:06.:02:08.

There's been pressure on him to find more money

:02:09.:02:12.

for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,

:02:13.:02:14.

But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be

:02:15.:02:19.

using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark

:02:20.:02:22.

What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed

:02:23.:02:33.

quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on

:02:34.:02:40.

Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I

:02:41.:02:44.

do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it

:02:45.:02:47.

He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his

:02:48.:02:59.

statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement

:03:00.:03:04.

rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November

:03:05.:03:08.

he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect

:03:09.:03:12.

that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will

:03:13.:03:18.

be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my

:03:19.:03:22.

view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care

:03:23.:03:28.

policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has

:03:29.:03:32.

got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the

:03:33.:03:36.

politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but

:03:37.:03:42.

it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry

:03:43.:03:48.

on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.

:03:49.:03:55.

But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has

:03:56.:03:59.

been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump

:04:00.:04:02.

priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to

:04:03.:04:09.

make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of

:04:10.:04:12.

concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of

:04:13.:04:17.

this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what

:04:18.:04:21.

message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some

:04:22.:04:26.

senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil

:04:27.:04:31.

Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is

:04:32.:04:34.

instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively

:04:35.:04:41.

slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not

:04:42.:04:46.

want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it

:04:47.:04:51.

sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may

:04:52.:04:55.

see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room

:04:56.:05:00.

to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we

:05:01.:05:04.

now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half

:05:05.:05:09.

months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may

:05:10.:05:13.

take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to

:05:14.:05:17.

do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory

:05:18.:05:22.

backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.

:05:23.:05:27.

He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just

:05:28.:05:33.

social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old

:05:34.:05:39.

people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words

:05:40.:05:45.

this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra

:05:46.:05:49.

30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth

:05:50.:05:55.

was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might

:05:56.:06:01.

go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think

:06:02.:06:07.

Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its

:06:08.:06:11.

wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might

:06:12.:06:15.

have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up

:06:16.:06:21.

Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you

:06:22.:06:27.

like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in

:06:28.:06:31.

the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural

:06:32.:06:36.

deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better

:06:37.:06:41.

than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest

:06:42.:06:48.

of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He

:06:49.:06:54.

clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is

:06:55.:06:59.

interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary

:07:00.:07:04.

for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original

:07:05.:07:08.

George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the

:07:09.:07:12.

limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is

:07:13.:07:15.

beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he

:07:16.:07:20.

plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot

:07:21.:07:26.

of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will

:07:27.:07:29.

end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the

:07:30.:07:32.

budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated

:07:33.:07:35.

last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that

:07:36.:07:38.

will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU

:07:39.:07:41.

nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove

:07:42.:07:43.

the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from

:07:44.:07:46.

the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make

:07:47.:07:52.

a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU

:07:53.:07:56.

nationals living here. If the worst happened,

:07:57.:08:00.

are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,

:08:01.:08:03.

who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,

:08:04.:08:07.

giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,

:08:08.:08:11.

"Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not

:08:12.:08:14.

going to say that. So, why not end the

:08:15.:08:16.

uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate

:08:17.:08:18.

which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's

:08:19.:08:23.

what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously

:08:24.:08:33.

agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral

:08:34.:08:39.

decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think

:08:40.:08:43.

that is the right and fair thing to do.

:08:44.:08:43.

And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader

:08:44.:08:47.

of the House of Commons, David Lidington.

:08:48.:08:50.

Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the

:08:51.:08:56.

Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU

:08:57.:09:00.

nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was

:09:01.:09:03.

my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have

:09:04.:09:10.

always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it

:09:11.:09:13.

does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that

:09:14.:09:19.

the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating

:09:20.:09:23.

with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens

:09:24.:09:30.

here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December

:09:31.:09:37.

European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.

:09:38.:09:43.

That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the

:09:44.:09:47.

view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has

:09:48.:09:51.

been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and

:09:52.:09:55.

national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the

:09:56.:10:00.

start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now

:10:01.:10:04.

got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make

:10:05.:10:10.

the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the

:10:11.:10:18.

UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are

:10:19.:10:23.

you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that

:10:24.:10:28.

goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of

:10:29.:10:33.

access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...

:10:34.:10:41.

But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got

:10:42.:10:46.

to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1

:10:47.:10:49.

million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,

:10:50.:10:54.

it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the

:10:55.:10:58.

short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British

:10:59.:11:04.

citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the

:11:05.:11:09.

hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will

:11:10.:11:14.

be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely

:11:15.:11:19.

extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British

:11:20.:11:22.

citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies

:11:23.:11:28.

getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to

:11:29.:11:31.

something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries

:11:32.:11:38.

might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you

:11:39.:11:45.

frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the

:11:46.:11:49.

past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up

:11:50.:11:55.

that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue

:11:56.:12:02.

that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be

:12:03.:12:05.

a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of

:12:06.:12:10.

this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the

:12:11.:12:14.

British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not

:12:15.:12:20.

come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in

:12:21.:12:25.

London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that

:12:26.:12:29.

we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the

:12:30.:12:33.

British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a

:12:34.:12:39.

reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not

:12:40.:12:43.

possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if

:12:44.:12:49.

there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU

:12:50.:12:53.

nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and

:12:54.:13:00.

face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.

:13:01.:13:07.

We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have

:13:08.:13:12.

been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for

:13:13.:13:17.

permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about

:13:18.:13:21.

whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health

:13:22.:13:25.

care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is

:13:26.:13:32.

the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home

:13:33.:13:38.

Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a

:13:39.:13:43.

vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament

:13:44.:13:46.

voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British

:13:47.:13:52.

Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and

:13:53.:14:00.

others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working

:14:01.:14:04.

hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They

:14:05.:14:07.

were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,

:14:08.:14:13.

more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the

:14:14.:14:16.

issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the

:14:17.:14:22.

Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this

:14:23.:14:26.

month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely

:14:27.:14:31.

hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable

:14:32.:14:36.

constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of

:14:37.:14:40.

commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an

:14:41.:14:47.

unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at

:14:48.:14:50.

the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that

:14:51.:14:56.

sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It

:14:57.:15:05.

is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the

:15:06.:15:06.

end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments

:15:07.:15:15.

will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at

:15:16.:15:19.

the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you

:15:20.:15:24.

understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is

:15:25.:15:29.

going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean

:15:30.:15:34.

by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on

:15:35.:15:38.

the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to

:15:39.:15:41.

consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given

:15:42.:15:48.

a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have

:15:49.:15:54.

negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what

:15:55.:16:00.

you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to

:16:01.:16:04.

vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem

:16:05.:16:08.

with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the

:16:09.:16:16.

PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27

:16:17.:16:23.

were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take

:16:24.:16:26.

fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of

:16:27.:16:29.

the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be

:16:30.:16:34.

much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial

:16:35.:16:40.

deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament

:16:41.:16:44.

is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,

:16:45.:16:50.

that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is

:16:51.:16:57.

straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the

:16:58.:17:01.

recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is

:17:02.:17:10.

irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying

:17:11.:17:15.

very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I

:17:16.:17:22.

think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I

:17:23.:17:26.

hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to

:17:27.:17:31.

insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and

:17:32.:17:34.

negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate

:17:35.:17:37.

on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you

:17:38.:17:42.

said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal

:17:43.:17:47.

with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your

:17:48.:17:53.

mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as

:17:54.:18:07.

you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms

:18:08.:18:10.

of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term

:18:11.:18:16.

trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,

:18:17.:18:22.

what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago

:18:23.:18:27.

you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big

:18:28.:18:32.

difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the

:18:33.:18:39.

other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort

:18:40.:18:45.

this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship

:18:46.:18:50.

between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and

:18:51.:18:53.

those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive

:18:54.:19:02.

challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that

:19:03.:19:05.

was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,

:19:06.:19:09.

David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had

:19:10.:19:10.

sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,

:19:11.:19:13.

which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,

:19:14.:19:19.

analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences

:19:20.:19:24.

committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,

:19:25.:19:27.

thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn

:19:28.:19:29.

from those offences? For the police and the intelligence

:19:30.:19:31.

agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think

:19:32.:19:40.

tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge

:19:41.:19:47.

new report which analyses every Islamism related attack

:19:48.:19:57.

and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases

:19:58.:20:00.

involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive

:20:01.:20:04.

as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really

:20:05.:20:06.

important to have an evidence base from which you draw

:20:07.:20:09.

policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,

:20:10.:20:10.

this the facts. This chart shows the number

:20:11.:20:15.

of cases each year combined with a small number

:20:16.:20:18.

of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle

:20:19.:20:22.

of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings

:20:23.:20:24.

in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,

:20:25.:20:28.

before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted

:20:29.:20:32.

for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers

:20:33.:20:35.

started counting. What we are seeing is a combination

:20:36.:20:40.

of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,

:20:41.:20:43.

we know that from the security services and police statements,

:20:44.:20:46.

but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms

:20:47.:20:49.

of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have

:20:50.:20:51.

facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,

:20:52.:21:00.

documents, money. About 18% of people

:21:01.:21:03.

were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related

:21:04.:21:06.

to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted

:21:07.:21:13.

of planning attacks, although the methods have

:21:14.:21:21.

changed over time. Five or six years ago,

:21:22.:21:25.

we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most

:21:26.:21:29.

of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,

:21:30.:21:31.

that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online

:21:32.:21:34.

magazine that had specific More recently we have seen

:21:35.:21:36.

Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife

:21:37.:21:41.

beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have

:21:42.:21:44.

seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her

:21:45.:21:47.

husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received

:21:48.:21:51.

an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing

:21:52.:21:56.

number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence

:21:57.:22:01.

although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out

:22:02.:22:03.

by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,

:22:04.:22:07.

a report says the vast Most have their home in London,

:22:08.:22:09.

around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,

:22:10.:22:18.

particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another

:22:19.:22:21.

hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth

:22:22.:22:23.

and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were

:22:24.:22:30.

60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were

:22:31.:22:39.

16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,

:22:40.:22:43.

he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting

:22:44.:22:45.

is how different each story is in many ways,

:22:46.:22:49.

but then within those differences So your angry young men,

:22:50.:22:52.

in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience

:22:53.:23:00.

abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,

:23:01.:23:07.

the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within

:23:08.:23:08.

this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds

:23:09.:23:11.

and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those

:23:12.:23:17.

convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities

:23:18.:23:19.

because they had a previous criminal record, they had

:23:20.:23:23.

made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them

:23:24.:23:26.

under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this

:23:27.:23:32.

report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,

:23:33.:23:39.

Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen

:23:40.:23:41.

from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated

:23:42.:23:56.

Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist

:23:57.:24:02.

terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated

:24:03.:24:07.

communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the

:24:08.:24:11.

wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I

:24:12.:24:15.

think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very

:24:16.:24:20.

recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was

:24:21.:24:25.

that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their

:24:26.:24:27.

neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many

:24:28.:24:33.

participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad

:24:34.:24:40.

thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population

:24:41.:24:45.

is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would

:24:46.:24:48.

prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason

:24:49.:24:51.

they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but

:24:52.:24:56.

often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you

:24:57.:25:02.

would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more

:25:03.:25:05.

diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to

:25:06.:25:10.

that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the

:25:11.:25:14.

challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this

:25:15.:25:18.

pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young

:25:19.:25:22.

Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is

:25:23.:25:27.

the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB

:25:28.:25:30.

attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say

:25:31.:25:36.

to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to

:25:37.:25:41.

counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent

:25:42.:25:46.

strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The

:25:47.:25:53.

report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people

:25:54.:25:56.

being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those

:25:57.:26:00.

convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing

:26:01.:26:20.

to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of

:26:21.:26:26.

work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the

:26:27.:26:31.

earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course

:26:32.:26:35.

subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the

:26:36.:26:41.

Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but

:26:42.:26:45.

there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were

:26:46.:26:49.

once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough

:26:50.:26:57.

to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.

:26:58.:27:06.

We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The

:27:07.:27:10.

Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on

:27:11.:27:15.

is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community

:27:16.:27:21.

must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share

:27:22.:27:25.

ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim

:27:26.:27:28.

communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it

:27:29.:27:33.

all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?

:27:34.:27:40.

Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has

:27:41.:27:45.

moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with

:27:46.:27:52.

that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't

:27:53.:28:00.

bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the

:28:01.:28:04.

brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other

:28:05.:28:09.

organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of

:28:10.:28:16.

Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous

:28:17.:28:22.

unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these

:28:23.:28:26.

numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our

:28:27.:28:28.

intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over

:28:29.:28:36.

80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police

:28:37.:28:44.

have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on

:28:45.:28:49.

the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also

:28:50.:28:54.

changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,

:28:55.:29:02.

get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big

:29:03.:29:06.

spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised

:29:07.:29:16.

people, two or three people get together, do something together,

:29:17.:29:20.

very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where

:29:21.:29:26.

intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police

:29:27.:29:32.

say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that

:29:33.:29:38.

kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried

:29:39.:29:42.

about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist

:29:43.:29:45.

route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been

:29:46.:29:51.

consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone

:29:52.:29:56.

has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they

:29:57.:29:59.

should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called

:30:00.:30:07.

caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about

:30:08.:30:09.

fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into

:30:10.:30:22.

three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic

:30:23.:30:26.

State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the

:30:27.:30:29.

dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great

:30:30.:30:34.

reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there

:30:35.:30:41.

should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all

:30:42.:30:47.

those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them

:30:48.:30:52.

alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is

:30:53.:30:58.

difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a

:30:59.:31:04.

watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?

:31:05.:31:11.

This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and

:31:12.:31:14.

our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the

:31:15.:31:19.

government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is

:31:20.:31:24.

our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at

:31:25.:31:29.

the border has improved. An important question. Given your

:31:30.:31:33.

experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a

:31:34.:31:41.

medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.

:31:42.:31:45.

It started when I was security minister and it has been taken

:31:46.:31:49.

seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the

:31:50.:31:53.

Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to

:31:54.:31:56.

take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it

:31:57.:32:01.

Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,

:32:02.:32:05.

but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still

:32:06.:32:08.

Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have

:32:09.:32:11.

been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.

:32:12.:32:15.

Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility

:32:16.:32:18.

said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current

:32:19.:32:21.

It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.

:32:22.:32:27.

On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce

:32:28.:32:29.

that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.

:32:30.:32:35.

Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level

:32:36.:32:38.

of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,

:32:39.:32:43.

coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest

:32:44.:32:46.

So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day

:32:47.:32:52.

government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over

:32:53.:32:56.

But capital spending, investment on infrastructure

:32:57.:33:02.

like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,

:33:03.:33:06.

producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.

:33:07.:33:12.

The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets

:33:13.:33:16.

while finding some more money for areas under serious

:33:17.:33:19.

pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.

:33:20.:33:26.

We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

:33:27.:33:31.

Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR

:33:32.:33:36.

predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn

:33:37.:33:41.

Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It

:33:42.:33:47.

is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England

:33:48.:33:52.

has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a

:33:53.:33:57.

growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a

:33:58.:34:02.

year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next

:34:03.:34:05.

year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or

:34:06.:34:10.

four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the

:34:11.:34:16.

OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement

:34:17.:34:20.

three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other

:34:21.:34:24.

forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as

:34:25.:34:32.

everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its

:34:33.:34:35.

growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.

:34:36.:34:42.

It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial

:34:43.:34:45.

year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like

:34:46.:34:51.

that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared

:34:52.:34:56.

to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic

:34:57.:35:00.

policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.

:35:01.:35:05.

That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so

:35:06.:35:10.

close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere

:35:11.:35:11.

between the budget and the Autumn number will come out somewhere

:35:12.:35:15.

Statement numbers. There was a nice surprise for the Chancellor last

:35:16.:35:18.

Statement numbers. There was a nice month which looked like tax revenues

:35:19.:35:23.

were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real

:35:24.:35:27.

question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is

:35:28.:35:31.

this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If

:35:32.:35:37.

growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good

:35:38.:35:41.

news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in

:35:42.:35:45.

the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It

:35:46.:35:50.

probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible

:35:51.:35:54.

outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things

:35:55.:35:58.

look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will

:35:59.:36:03.

still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase

:36:04.:36:07.

his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a

:36:08.:36:12.

couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion

:36:13.:36:18.

more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite

:36:19.:36:25.

constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.

:36:26.:36:31.

That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and

:36:32.:36:36.

is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as

:36:37.:36:41.

you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic

:36:42.:36:46.

reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some

:36:47.:36:50.

headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending

:36:51.:36:55.

cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things

:36:56.:36:58.

have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in

:36:59.:37:04.

the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the

:37:05.:37:10.

Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is

:37:11.:37:15.

hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of

:37:16.:37:20.

income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for

:37:21.:37:26.

ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has

:37:27.:37:29.

reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for

:37:30.:37:35.

him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax

:37:36.:37:40.

burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its

:37:41.:37:45.

highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through

:37:46.:37:49.

straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of

:37:50.:37:53.

insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and

:37:54.:37:59.

that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,

:38:00.:38:04.

but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole

:38:05.:38:08.

and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase

:38:09.:38:15.

fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really

:38:16.:38:22.

keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the

:38:23.:38:28.

next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has

:38:29.:38:33.

had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being

:38:34.:38:35.

with us. It's just gone 11.35,

:38:36.:38:37.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. Good morning and welcome

:38:38.:38:46.

to Sunday Politics Scotland. Finding their voice -

:38:47.:38:47.

is the quiet Conservative I think conservatives are starting

:38:48.:39:03.

to become more vocal and open, I think that is to do with the

:39:04.:39:10.

detoxification of the Conservative brand.

:39:11.:39:13.

I'll be speaking to the leader of the Scottish Conservatives,

:39:14.:39:15.

Ruth Davidson, following their conference in Glasgow.

:39:16.:39:17.

And is Scotland's education really bottom of the class?

:39:18.:39:19.

Saying you're a Conservative out loud hasn't always been a popular

:39:20.:39:23.

thing to do in Scotland, but are things changing?

:39:24.:39:25.

The party's been winning new support from people who are opposed

:39:26.:39:28.

to another independence referendum - and that was the key

:39:29.:39:30.

message at this week's Scottish Conservative conference.

:39:31.:39:32.

In a moment we'll be speaking to the party leader, Ruth Davidson,

:39:33.:39:35.

but first, Andrew Black's been trying to find out if the phenomenon

:39:36.:39:38.

known as the Shy Tory is becoming a thing of the past.

:39:39.:39:48.

After years in the wilderness, the Scottish Conservative Party is now

:39:49.:39:56.

having its most successful period in 60 years. More than doubled its

:39:57.:39:59.

number of seats in the last Holyrood election, and thanks to a collapse

:40:00.:40:02.

in the labour vote, it has now become the main opposition party.

:40:03.:40:07.

However, being a Conservative voter has not always been fashionable,

:40:08.:40:11.

especially in Scotland, which has given rise to the term Shy Tory, but

:40:12.:40:22.

given the new-found success, does that mean its supporters are more

:40:23.:40:25.

willing to talk about who the vote for? People were reluctant to say

:40:26.:40:28.

that they were Tory, or that they would vote Conservative, but I

:40:29.:40:32.

think, as you see, they are being more open about it. It is not a bad

:40:33.:40:36.

thing, I have always admitted it to my friends and family. I am only 19

:40:37.:40:39.

so I have only managed to vote Conservative ones, but they are

:40:40.:40:41.

starting to become more vocal and open, I think that's maybe to do

:40:42.:40:46.

with the detoxification of the Conservative brand after the dark

:40:47.:40:51.

days, if you can call it that, of the New Labour Erath. Until recently

:40:52.:40:59.

we were shy, retiring, heading behind-the-scenes supporters. Even

:41:00.:41:07.

the word Tory, I shied from. And in Scotland it is very much seen as

:41:08.:41:15.

elitist. I think that is why everyone is quite. But as you can

:41:16.:41:18.

see from the conference there is a lot more younger people coming

:41:19.:41:23.

through. Use of the end of the Shy Tory was welcomed by even some of

:41:24.:41:27.

the party's strongest critics. Any politician who has the bottle to

:41:28.:41:37.

publicly stop and put their position,... They had the courage to

:41:38.:41:45.

come out and say, actually, these are my politics, these are the

:41:46.:41:52.

issues we need to debate. But for the Conservative leadership, there

:41:53.:41:55.

is more to it than that. The result of the EU referendum has caused

:41:56.:42:00.

divisions in the party. And let us never stop making loudly and clearly

:42:01.:42:07.

the positive, optimistic and passionate case for our precious

:42:08.:42:13.

union of nations and of people. Then there is the Conservatives' ongoing

:42:14.:42:17.

fight against the second independence referendum. Come the

:42:18.:42:20.

party capitalise on recent election success? We will know after the

:42:21.:42:29.

council elections in two months. The leader of the Scottish Conservatives

:42:30.:42:33.

joins me now. Ruth Davidson, can I just ask you about something that

:42:34.:42:37.

has come up this morning? There is a House of Commons cross-party

:42:38.:42:42.

committee on Brexit, which produced a report saying the British

:42:43.:42:45.

government should unilaterally safeguard the position of EU

:42:46.:42:51.

nationals living in Britain. Is that something you would support? I have

:42:52.:42:55.

said from the start I want to make sure people have the assurance they

:42:56.:42:58.

need. That is why I was so pleased that the Prime Minister tried ahead

:42:59.:43:03.

of Article 50 to get that agreement, not just for EU nationals here, but

:43:04.:43:07.

for Brits living abroad as well. I thought it was a real shame that

:43:08.:43:11.

other countries in the EU did not want to do that. But when the Prime

:43:12.:43:15.

Minister laid out her 12 point plan, I was pleased she had it in there as

:43:16.:43:18.

one of our key objectives and one she wanted to get done first. But do

:43:19.:43:23.

you agree with the House of Commons cross-party committee that Britain

:43:24.:43:27.

should unilaterally guarantee the position? I have not read the report

:43:28.:43:31.

to which you are referring, so I am not sure what is in it. I am not in

:43:32.:43:35.

the House of Commons. Sorry about that. I want to make sure we have

:43:36.:43:39.

the insurance people need right here. I am pleased to have seen

:43:40.:43:43.

David Davis has come out and said four people already living here, who

:43:44.:43:47.

have been here for a number of years, the scaremongering that has

:43:48.:43:50.

been going on that there may be some change to their circumstances, is

:43:51.:43:54.

not true. And the query assurances that the Prime Minister has made,

:43:55.:43:57.

wanting to get this done before Article 50, but it is also one of

:43:58.:44:02.

the things she gets done first. Shortly after the referendum last

:44:03.:44:05.

year you said you wanted guarantees for EU nationals living in Britain

:44:06.:44:11.

and you wanted them, your phrase was, pretty quick. You still do not

:44:12.:44:16.

have them. The Prime Minister started to get it -- try to get it

:44:17.:44:22.

done ahead of Article 50. But the Lords are seeing that they want

:44:23.:44:26.

Britain to just do it unilaterally. But I think a House of Commons

:44:27.:44:30.

committee, I absolutely respect it, I have not read that report, I do

:44:31.:44:36.

not sit in the House of Commons, but the Prime Minister has to look at

:44:37.:44:42.

the 2.7 million Brits who live abroad and get assurances for them.

:44:43.:44:46.

She wants to get it now, before the process starts. It is a real shame

:44:47.:44:49.

that other countries said no to that. She also said it is at the top

:44:50.:44:54.

of the 12 point plan to what she wants to get done first. It is a

:44:55.:44:59.

shame that other countries said no to do this right now. It is

:45:00.:45:02.

important that the UK Government has come out strongly to see those

:45:03.:45:05.

people living here, do not listen to the scaremongering, it is not going

:45:06.:45:11.

to change. The Scottish Government has submitted a paper of which the

:45:12.:45:15.

British government is considering on Brexit and it proposes a mechanism

:45:16.:45:18.

British government is considering on by which Scotland can stay in the

:45:19.:45:22.

European free trade area, and therefore the European economic

:45:23.:45:26.

area, and get access to the single market while remaining in the UK. Do

:45:27.:45:30.

you think there is any merit on what they Scottish Government is

:45:31.:45:34.

proposing? The Scottish Government paper had a number of

:45:35.:45:38.

recommendations, and some of them made it into the 12 point plan. But

:45:39.:45:44.

what about their preferred option? No in the Scottish Conservative

:45:45.:45:48.

Party, we ordered an expert panel review looking at trade

:45:49.:45:52.

specifically, and they came to a slightly different view on what they

:45:53.:45:56.

thought was best because the most important issue for Scotland is

:45:57.:46:00.

making sure we stay part of our biggest trading area. Again, I come

:46:01.:46:09.

back to this point, if the Scottish Government's attempts at getting the

:46:10.:46:12.

British government to agree and negotiate on its behalf the

:46:13.:46:18.

particular deal they propose, do you think that is actually going to

:46:19.:46:24.

happen or is the British government, in your view, or should they say no?

:46:25.:46:29.

There are ongoing conversations. That paper had a number of

:46:30.:46:36.

recommendations on it... But I am asking about the key one? The Welsh

:46:37.:46:47.

government joined Labour... The review that came back last week for

:46:48.:46:50.

us took a different course. Having read the work that has gone on, it

:46:51.:46:55.

was led by a former ambassador, a chap that had run the fiscal

:46:56.:47:01.

Association for the time, said there were more important things to look

:47:02.:47:04.

after than what the Scottish Government has said. There is no

:47:05.:47:06.

surprise to any of your viewers that Nicola Sturgeon and I have

:47:07.:47:21.

disagreements about a number of things. Not least some of the things

:47:22.:47:24.

she is asking the UK Government to consider. You have said before on

:47:25.:47:26.

this programme that you accept the Scottish Government to hold another

:47:27.:47:29.

independence referendum, but you do not think they should do it, and you

:47:30.:47:31.

have also said the British government should not block the

:47:32.:47:33.

Scottish Government for doing that. But I'm curious, do you think there

:47:34.:47:39.

is a case for the British government to say you can have a referendum,

:47:40.:47:44.

but not while we are negotiating Brexit, it might be in the interests

:47:45.:47:47.

of everyone if you wait till we know what the Brexit deal is? When you

:47:48.:47:52.

ask that question on a day when yet another poll shows that support for

:47:53.:47:55.

the second independence referendum has fallen, today's poll says it is

:47:56.:48:00.

only a quarter of Scots who would like to be dragged back to that

:48:01.:48:04.

divisive situation. I think the question should be for Nicola

:48:05.:48:05.

Sturgeon, are you going to stand question should be for Nicola

:48:06.:48:14.

up... OK, we will talk to her on the occasion of her party conference. I

:48:15.:48:19.

am asking you, you have a right to hold a referendum, but not while we

:48:20.:48:25.

are negotiating a Brexit deal, do you think that is what the UK

:48:26.:48:31.

Government should say? Myself and the Prime Minister have also agreed

:48:32.:48:36.

and recognised and said the rate to self-determination, which is why in

:48:37.:48:44.

2012 bid was that -- there was a clear mandate, and the process

:48:45.:48:49.

happened. But the majority of the people in Scotland do not want this.

:48:50.:48:52.

Again you're really not addressing... Nicola Sturgeon argues

:48:53.:48:58.

she will be able to hold a referendum whenever she likes.

:48:59.:49:03.

Should she? That is unfair to say I'm not answering the question.

:49:04.:49:05.

There could be another referendum, but the question for the First

:49:06.:49:10.

Minister is, should there be another referendum? At the moment, when she

:49:11.:49:14.

has no clear mandate, she lost her majority, and the majority of Scots

:49:15.:49:18.

do not want it she should not have another referendum. She argued she

:49:19.:49:24.

should be able to have one whenever she likes. Should she? The power for

:49:25.:49:25.

holding a referendum is held at she likes. Should she? The power for

:49:26.:49:35.

Westminster, so in terms of whether a hypothetical referendum to happen,

:49:36.:49:39.

she would still need the agreement for those powers to Passover, and if

:49:40.:49:43.

she wants to change that she should have put that forward in this myth

:49:44.:49:47.

report, to see that the Scottish Government should be in charge of

:49:48.:49:52.

holding a future referendum. In terms of, am I going to try and help

:49:53.:49:58.

the SNP do what they have been doing for the last nine months -- 12

:49:59.:50:04.

months and make it seem another referendum is inevitable, and that

:50:05.:50:07.

is not my job to do that, I am opposing this, I am on the side of

:50:08.:50:11.

the majority of Scots. If she does try to hold one, she will take a

:50:12.:50:15.

massive hit from it because Scots do not want dragged back there, they

:50:16.:50:18.

have told us time and again they do not want dragged back. If she moves

:50:19.:50:26.

against the public opinion, she will pay a heavy price. Can I assume you

:50:27.:50:29.

would not be in favour of another referendum being held on the basis

:50:30.:50:35.

of yes is pro-independence and no is to stay in the UK? My focus is to

:50:36.:50:40.

stop rendering -- referendum to happen because we made a decision

:50:41.:50:46.

three years angle, and we were told it would last a generation. I will

:50:47.:50:50.

not start answering hypothetical questions about the wording of a

:50:51.:50:54.

question I do not want asked is going to be. I am not playing that

:50:55.:50:55.

game. One of the stipulations is that both

:50:56.:51:08.

sides would respect the result. Do you Scottish Government and SNP have

:51:09.:51:12.

breached that? I don't hear that respect of the result. I genuinely

:51:13.:51:19.

do not. I think the first sign of just how the pursuit they were going

:51:20.:51:24.

to do, just how cynical the pursuit was the second independence

:51:25.:51:27.

referendum was going to be, we saw on the day after the Brexit vote.

:51:28.:51:31.

Sturgeon stood up and the votes were still being counted and she said she

:51:32.:51:37.

had already instructed civil servants in Scotland to draw up a

:51:38.:51:42.

second Referendum Bill. She did want to thought of the public or listen

:51:43.:51:45.

to them all come to Parliament, she had already instructed that before

:51:46.:51:48.

people had even had their breakfasting on to work that day. It

:51:49.:51:54.

is absolutely cynical and I think she'll pay heavy price for it.

:51:55.:51:59.

There's a perception, not just amongst the SNP supporters of

:52:00.:52:02.

independence, that the British Government has not been settled in

:52:03.:52:04.

the way they've played this and that it could come to Scotland say, look,

:52:05.:52:11.

you've got an interest in this and here is what we are proposing to

:52:12.:52:16.

devolve to Scotland as part of the repatriation of power from Brussels.

:52:17.:52:19.

I know you will say that is still up for grabs, but the perception is the

:52:20.:52:22.

British Government is coming over and saying no. Do you think there

:52:23.:52:34.

should be a bit more imaginative in making it much more difficult for

:52:35.:52:38.

Nicola Sturgeon to call and the referendum by saying, look here is a

:52:39.:52:39.

shed load of things we could be beat shed load of things we could be beat

:52:40.:52:43.

-- repatriated and it's the interest the people of Scotland and let us

:52:44.:52:49.

get your response to that? I think the way you've asked that question,

:52:50.:52:52.

so the difference between the UK and the Scottish Government and the

:52:53.:52:57.

narrow political dull that fronts and fuels everything the SNP do. And

:52:58.:53:03.

that practical considerations are people working in Scotland and

:53:04.:53:05.

trying to make a living here that the UK Government is trying to

:53:06.:53:10.

protect. In the Prime Minister's speech, she said not a single power

:53:11.:53:14.

being held in Government is going anywhere else. In the first

:53:15.:53:20.

instance, power coming out Brussels go back to the member state and then

:53:21.:53:25.

a mature happen about... We are out of time. Quick one word answers,

:53:26.:53:34.

please. If there's another independence referendum, you have

:53:35.:53:38.

said the SNP will take a hit. How much do you think this day side

:53:39.:53:47.

would win by? The economic case... There is every opportunity. And you

:53:48.:53:52.

will be the next First Minister? That is what we are working towards

:53:53.:53:56.

in 2021. To be a proper, professional ten to Government, a

:53:57.:54:00.

real choice for Scotland and one opposes businesses and people first

:54:01.:54:03.

and not a narrow political ideology of independence first. What you

:54:04.:54:10.

didn't say that was yes, I will be the First Minister! Well, come back

:54:11.:54:18.

to the 2021. The hard work starts now, four and a half years out from

:54:19.:54:22.

the election and we will be fits to fight for that election and we will

:54:23.:54:26.

be a proper alternative Government for Scotland. Ruth Davidson, thank

:54:27.:54:27.

you. Nicola Sturgeon said education

:54:28.:54:31.

would be the defining mission But that mission came under pressure

:54:32.:54:34.

at First Minister's Questions this week as opposition leader

:54:35.:54:38.

after opposition leader had a pop at the First Minister

:54:39.:54:40.

over Scotland's schools. She staked a reputational reforming

:54:41.:54:54.

the schools of Scotland and what have we seen? Literacy standards

:54:55.:54:59.

have slipped, numerous is standards also, curriculum for excellence is

:55:00.:55:03.

failing and now we seen her Education Secretary stalling. She

:55:04.:55:05.

keeps putting at the referendum on the front foot, but everyone else on

:55:06.:55:15.

the back burner. Standardised assessments are being introduced in

:55:16.:55:20.

teacher judgments and there is more data than ever before been published

:55:21.:55:23.

so we can determine how well schools are doing and what more we need to

:55:24.:55:28.

do to support those who work in the front line in our education system.

:55:29.:55:35.

Education budgets are being cut to for years. Over 4000 teachers and a

:55:36.:55:40.

thousand support staff. Pico 150,000 student places in our college. He

:55:41.:55:45.

cut university budgets and slashed fronts for students as well. He now

:55:46.:55:49.

faces the consequences of his own decisions. School league tables have

:55:50.:56:00.

the information here. It is published by the Scottish

:56:01.:56:03.

Government. Our own Government has published this information on

:56:04.:56:09.

experimental information. National school league tables. She promised

:56:10.:56:13.

that would never, ever happen. But that is exactly what is happening.

:56:14.:56:19.

Those other politicians, but what are the issues facing education in

:56:20.:56:28.

Scotland? Lindsay Paterson gave his views on some of the burning

:56:29.:56:39.

questions. The problem in a sense is no one clearly knows, because the

:56:40.:56:43.

problems are so immense. The fundamental thing that most changes

:56:44.:56:46.

what looked -- what children are learning. All the evidence is that

:56:47.:56:50.

things we've been trying to teach them for 15 years or more are

:56:51.:56:56.

causing them to earn less than their counterparts in other countries. I

:56:57.:57:07.

can understand why they've decided to postpone this bill, because being

:57:08.:57:11.

a large number of responses to the consultations on it. On the other

:57:12.:57:14.

hand, it is about the structures of education are not addressing the

:57:15.:57:17.

fundamental point, which is the quality of the curriculum and an age

:57:18.:57:20.

of the learning that the children are doing. The important reforms are

:57:21.:57:25.

what is going to be done about the curriculum assessment and

:57:26.:57:36.

attainment. All the evidence suggests the curriculum for

:57:37.:57:39.

excellence is at the core of the problem and that is the reason why

:57:40.:57:42.

we seen quite a drastic fall in the level of attainment of Scottish

:57:43.:57:45.

children compared with a pastime compared with other countries now.

:57:46.:57:48.

We know from lots of international research that the kind of curriculum

:57:49.:57:52.

that curriculum for excellence is, that is an emphasis on skills rather

:57:53.:57:57.

than knowledge, is ultimately quite bad and even disastrous for the

:57:58.:58:02.

attainment of children. So, very quickly, it ought to be learned in

:58:03.:58:05.

Scotland from these international studies. The whole point of this is

:58:06.:58:10.

misconceived Amanita fundamentally revised what is being done. --

:58:11.:58:16.

fundamentally revised what is being done. The attainment gap has never

:58:17.:58:24.

been completely closed in any period since the beginning of the 20th

:58:25.:58:27.

century. So the chance of Scotland, daily closing it is very small. But

:58:28.:58:31.

what can be done is make progress toward that. You can provide more

:58:32.:58:35.

opportunities, emphasise the things that would enable children are

:58:36.:58:38.

living in poverty ought to circumstances to do better than they

:58:39.:58:43.

have in the past. They can be some progress, but to set up targets of

:58:44.:58:47.

completely ending the attainment gap is a realistic, unless of course,

:58:48.:58:50.

there is to be a change in the quality of what is learned and the

:58:51.:58:54.

criteria of what counts as having learnt it. In other words, dumbing

:58:55.:58:57.

down rather making sure everyone learns the same kind of quality

:58:58.:59:09.

things. Standardised assessments are the only way we can get object

:59:10.:59:12.

things. Standardised assessments are neutral scientific evidence on what

:59:13.:59:15.

is going on. They are not the owner of measuring progress, but without

:59:16.:59:19.

them, any other way will be purely subjective and wouldn't get enough

:59:20.:59:24.

hard evidence for policymakers. So standardised assessments of the way

:59:25.:59:28.

in which education can achieve the same kind of objective, and

:59:29.:59:35.

neutrality, that we would expect of a new scientific project. It has to

:59:36.:59:38.

be that kind of evidence if we are not so just speculate on what

:59:39.:59:41.

children are achieving rather than measuring it. League tables can

:59:42.:59:52.

become controversial and if they are used purely for competitive

:59:53.:59:56.

purposes, they are rather dangerous. But that's not the league tables as

:59:57.:00:01.

such, but the ways in which they are used in public debate and in

:00:02.:00:04.

newspapers, media and conversations amongst parents and so on. The

:00:05.:00:09.

tables themselves or the publishing of information and the longer that

:00:10.:00:13.

is complex and addresses all the different temperatures of education

:00:14.:00:17.

and the set of context, there is no more reason to object to information

:00:18.:00:21.

on schools than would be to object to informational universities. --

:00:22.:00:25.

information on universities. Well, to disucss this,

:00:26.:00:27.

earlier I spoke to James Dornan from the SNP, who's also convenor

:00:28.:00:30.

of Holyrood's Education Committee, and Alex Cole-Hamilton

:00:31.:00:32.

from the Lib Dems. Alex Cole-Hamilton, what you make of

:00:33.:00:43.

the delay in the education bill? It is astonishing but not surprising.

:00:44.:00:48.

We have local Government elections coming up and are a lot of questions

:00:49.:00:52.

record on education. It isn't in the record on education. It isn't in the

:00:53.:00:56.

-- Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to be judged on, yet consistently,

:00:57.:01:00.

this Government have failed the children in Scotland that they are

:01:01.:01:02.

sliding down the international league tables as a result of the

:01:03.:01:07.

scores that were announced earlier this year and it is a real millstone

:01:08.:01:12.

around the neck of the SNP. So it's not surprising it has been delayed.

:01:13.:01:16.

But were always demanded that politicians should think about

:01:17.:01:20.

things and listen to what the people are saying to them, rather than just

:01:21.:01:24.

coming up with snap headlines and John Swinney argues that it will be

:01:25.:01:30.

perfectly sensible to say, I've got a response to this may change my

:01:31.:01:34.

ideas on it, so I want a bit more time. That would have currency if

:01:35.:01:39.

the SNP were listening. But if you look at the standardised assessments

:01:40.:01:42.

they want to bring in, which is effectively national testing by any

:01:43.:01:51.

other name, they are going people like the EIS who said it will crush

:01:52.:01:54.

staff and pupils alike. Yes, if I believe the Education

:01:55.:02:10.

Secretary was listening to professionals, then full marks to

:02:11.:02:13.

him, but he is not. And I think national testing is a perfect

:02:14.:02:19.

example of that. James Dornan, I assume you would not claim that the

:02:20.:02:21.

record on education is anything other than pretty poor at the

:02:22.:02:27.

moment. Do you think John Swinney is right to take a bit more time to

:02:28.:02:31.

consider what to do about it? It is more important to get things right

:02:32.:02:35.

than do things early. You take the time to make sure what is going to

:02:36.:02:40.

come out in the bill is exactly what the Cabinet secretaries looking for

:02:41.:02:43.

and that what the people of Scotland require. I heard Alec talking about

:02:44.:02:48.

the fight the Tories are in favour of it doesn't necessarily mean it's

:02:49.:02:51.

a bad thing, but he is part of a Government that spent... I was

:02:52.:02:55.

wondering how long it will take you to mention that. It's more than to

:02:56.:03:01.

sentences. That because I'm a gentleman thought I would

:03:02.:03:02.

sentences. That because I'm a other point first. Of course the

:03:03.:03:06.

Cabinet Secretary is right to take his time. But also, if we talk about

:03:07.:03:15.

standardised assessments... Right, OK. They said in 2015 we needed a

:03:16.:03:25.

robust system and had to learn about the learning in progress, so this is

:03:26.:03:30.

the only way to do that. It has today standardised system right

:03:31.:03:33.

across the whole of education. We have to know how children are doing.

:03:34.:03:36.

Be that only works... What I have to know how children are doing.

:03:37.:03:41.

still unclear about is that as you do tests and you produce the results

:03:42.:03:45.

and publish them in whatever way, school by school or whatever, then

:03:46.:03:50.

fine. But there was talk that these would not be raw results, but there

:03:51.:03:54.

be mixed with teacher assessments, which makes the whole thing entirely

:03:55.:04:00.

subjective. Which is to be? Which do you think it should be? The

:04:01.:04:05.

important thing is that we get the information and we have the

:04:06.:04:12.

information. It has to be that the information... We have to know how

:04:13.:04:18.

different schools are doing. We have to have pupils are doing in terms of

:04:19.:04:23.

where they are in the system. But my point is if you have an element of

:04:24.:04:26.

teacher assessment in the results, then that is what you publish.

:04:27.:04:29.

You're not getting that data you are talking about, because... Be them as

:04:30.:04:34.

a separation between both of those things. You have to have the actual

:04:35.:04:41.

data. What is wrong with that? If you publish date of that kind in any

:04:42.:04:45.

format that will invariably lead to a league tables, as we saw under the

:04:46.:04:49.

Conservative Government under Margaret Thatcher. The result of

:04:50.:04:53.

that and if you listen to teaching unions and teachers, you can see

:04:54.:04:56.

pressure on staff within primary schools and hot housing kids so that

:04:57.:05:02.

they can make sure their school shows up favourably on the league

:05:03.:05:09.

tables. I can see why some people in the trade unions may be against it

:05:10.:05:14.

because it puts pressure on them if they are not performing well. I

:05:15.:05:16.

cannot see that argument applied to they are not performing well. I

:05:17.:05:22.

either the interests of the children or their parents. Why is it not

:05:23.:05:26.

reasonable for parents to want to know how their children's School

:05:27.:05:29.

compares against other similar schools? It is reasonable for

:05:30.:05:32.

appearance to want to know how their children are getting on in class,

:05:33.:05:35.

but you would also want to know that your children are not being

:05:36.:05:39.

artificially hot housed to one single day of exams, when the

:05:40.:05:44.

curriculum for excellence... Your argument would make sense if we

:05:45.:05:49.

said, standardised tests are not the way to do this, this is our version

:05:50.:06:11.

of how we will compare schools with others so we know which are

:06:12.:06:22.

performing well and which badly, but you do not have any alternative

:06:23.:06:31.

suggestion. Take Edinburgh, for example, there has been standardised

:06:32.:06:33.

assessment in Edinburgh for a while, but that is not published in league

:06:34.:06:38.

tables that invariably what the government are planning will be to,

:06:39.:06:40.

but it gives educational authorities and schools and understanding -- and

:06:41.:06:43.

understanding of what is happening within schools. So you're saying

:06:44.:06:45.

that standardised testing is OK, and league tables ROK as long as the

:06:46.:06:48.

secret? Not at all. This is a national framework. I am talking

:06:49.:06:50.

about the way individually benchmark the progress of the individual

:06:51.:06:52.

children within schools. This is not a secret. It is used within schools

:06:53.:06:55.

to see what need certain classes and individual children have, but let us

:06:56.:06:57.

remember the pressure we are putting our kids under. A charity which

:06:58.:07:00.

deals with the mental health primary school children published a survey

:07:01.:07:02.

which said 60% of primary seven children worried about something.

:07:03.:07:06.

Mango I would suggest that it is a disaster, the system has been geared

:07:07.:07:09.

to fail the children when the exact opposite is the case. We cannot talk

:07:10.:07:14.

about pigeonholing children while at the same time having curriculum for

:07:15.:07:17.

excellence in there. It makes no sense. But doesn't your idea of

:07:18.:07:22.

standardised testing, the Conservatives are calling for the --

:07:23.:07:27.

a review of curriculum for excellence. Arguably that has

:07:28.:07:31.

already been implemented by John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon because

:07:32.:07:34.

the standardised testing singles against the grain of curriculum for

:07:35.:07:39.

excellence. Perhaps correctly, given the problems with it, but it is not

:07:40.:07:43.

consistent with its. The whole thing was supposed to be about individual

:07:44.:07:46.

assessment, there was even talk in primary schools of children taking

:07:47.:07:53.

part in their own assessment. That not fit at all with standardised

:07:54.:07:55.

testing in primary schools. Curriculum for excellence is about

:07:56.:07:58.

giving the broader base and that easier way of learning for the

:07:59.:08:02.

child. But we still have to know that insurgents subjects that

:08:03.:08:10.

children are reaching specific benchmarks we can target resources

:08:11.:08:15.

where they are required. Curriculum for excellence has proven to be a

:08:16.:08:18.

great success and trendy schools, it is starting to show it can be a

:08:19.:08:23.

great success in primary schools -- a great success in secondary

:08:24.:08:26.

schools. We have to leave it there. Now time to look back

:08:27.:08:28.

at the week gone by and ahead to the next seven

:08:29.:08:31.

days, in The Week Ahead. This week, I'm joined

:08:32.:08:37.

by the journalist Kathleen Nutt, who writes for the National among

:08:38.:08:39.

others, and the political David, this referendum thing,

:08:40.:08:51.

something has got to give. Theresa May says no, it should not happen,

:08:52.:08:58.

and Nicola Sturgeon increasingly stridently saying yes, it will. What

:08:59.:09:08.

gives? In two weeks Article 50 will be triggered, and we have the SNP

:09:09.:09:10.

conference. It is unlikely that Nicola Sturgeon will use the

:09:11.:09:15.

conference to formally call for another referendum, but she might

:09:16.:09:16.

conference to formally call for request the power to do so, but

:09:17.:09:19.

things do feel like they are coming to a head. There was an element of

:09:20.:09:23.

doublespeak that the Scottish Tory conference which I find interesting.

:09:24.:09:29.

Speaker after speaker said we will oppose a referendum, we will do

:09:30.:09:35.

everything possible to stop a referendum, but every journalist

:09:36.:09:36.

knows behind the scenes they are effectively saying they have no

:09:37.:09:39.

choice to agree -- back to agree to one if it is requested, but they

:09:40.:09:44.

will attach caveats. The caveats being to do with timing? Yes, timing

:09:45.:09:53.

is the crucial thing. Some people think it should be after Brexit. I

:09:54.:10:03.

think after Theresa May's speech on Friday, the chances of a second

:10:04.:10:07.

independence referendum are much stronger now. I think she came up to

:10:08.:10:14.

Scotland and gave the SNP a hard time for raising the issue of

:10:15.:10:25.

constitutional politics,... I think it was not politically astute of her

:10:26.:10:32.

to raise the prospect of power is coming back in devolved areas, that

:10:33.:10:39.

these powers over agriculture, environment and fisheries would stay

:10:40.:10:44.

with Westminster. Rather than coming up to Holyrood. This would be

:10:45.:10:50.

interpreted as a weakening Scotland at a time when she wants to

:10:51.:10:54.

strengthen the union, which I think will backfire on her. Conservatives

:10:55.:11:00.

like Ruth Davidson and her colleagues, they say, it is not fair

:11:01.:11:04.

to say that, when I say, could you not be a bit more imaginative about

:11:05.:11:08.

that? Would it not be possible for the British government to say, this

:11:09.:11:13.

is a fantastic opportunity, here is what we're proposing, and challenge

:11:14.:11:17.

the Scottish Nationalists to reject it. Do you not think they could be

:11:18.:11:22.

more imaginative? On the powers? On they could talk about immigration.

:11:23.:11:28.

Politicians could always be what imaginative. They are coming over as

:11:29.:11:34.

just seeing no. They are hamstrung by promises made by leave

:11:35.:11:38.

campaigners, when they got carried away saying, there will be all these

:11:39.:11:43.

amazing powers. Now they are pulling back slightly. I find it slightly

:11:44.:11:46.

difficult to believe that a second independence referendum will turn on

:11:47.:11:52.

agricultural and fishery subsidies. And the weakening of devolution. It

:11:53.:11:58.

is more nuanced than that. It is more in the remake of shared powers,

:11:59.:12:04.

and about a change of middleman, really. Now we're leaving the

:12:05.:12:11.

European Union, the subsidies and so one... In truth it is fiendishly

:12:12.:12:14.

difficult and can be interpreted in any way you like, obviously, but I

:12:15.:12:21.

think for most voters, they will not be altogether interested. On the

:12:22.:12:26.

other side, just some obvious examples, there might be a case for

:12:27.:12:29.

the British government saying we have to have control over

:12:30.:12:33.

agriculture for example in times of emergency we need food security.

:12:34.:12:39.

There are also arguments about common standards across the UK,

:12:40.:12:44.

which is in the interest of Scottish Parliament cos you are exposed

:12:45.:12:50.

mainly to England. I think the SNP and Scottish Government would agree

:12:51.:12:54.

with that, they will work together on the shared powers, but at the

:12:55.:13:01.

same time, we're talking about an independence referendum. That does

:13:02.:13:03.

not necessarily need to happen if Theresa May actually agreed to your

:13:04.:13:09.

proposals, which would allow Scottish to remain. Can Nicola

:13:10.:13:15.

Sturgeon backdown on a referendum? Scottish to remain. Can Nicola

:13:16.:13:20.

She has made it very difficult for her to backdown. If she does, she

:13:21.:13:24.

will lose a tremendous amount of face, like Gordon Brown in 2007 with

:13:25.:13:30.

the election. I think the pressure is on balance for calling another

:13:31.:13:34.

one. Can she backdown? If Theresa May promises to keep Scotland in the

:13:35.:13:40.

single market, in a special Brexit deal, but otherwise no.

:13:41.:13:42.

All right, we have to leave it there.

:13:43.:13:45.

I'll be back at the same time next week.

:13:46.:13:49.

The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.

:13:50.:13:57.