Browse content similar to 02/04/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:38. | :00:40. | |
The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
After a momentous week, Britain's journey out | :00:49. | :00:54. | |
Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home | :00:55. | :00:57. | |
We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard. | :00:58. | :01:03. | |
And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections - | :01:04. | :01:05. | |
what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down? | :01:06. | :01:09. | |
And on Sunday Politics Scotland - What a week! | :01:10. | :01:11. | |
and Spain's Foreign Minister says they wouldn't block | :01:12. | :01:17. | |
an Independent Scotland's entry to the EU. | :01:18. | :01:18. | |
Join me, and Holyrood's Brexit Minister, at 11.45. | :01:19. | :01:30. | |
And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political | :01:31. | :01:32. | |
panel in the business - Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott | :01:33. | :01:35. | |
and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be tweeting throughout the programme. | :01:36. | :01:40. | |
For the people of Gibraltar, Clause 22 of the EU's draft negotiating | :01:41. | :01:43. | |
guidelines came as something of a shock. | :01:44. | :01:45. | |
The guidelines propose that the Government in Spain be | :01:46. | :01:51. | |
given a veto over any future trade deal as it applies to | :01:52. | :01:53. | |
The UK Government has reacted strongly, saying Gibraltar | :01:54. | :01:59. | |
will not be bargained away in the Brexit talks. | :02:00. | :02:01. | |
Here's the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, speaking | :02:02. | :02:07. | |
We are going to look after Gibraltar. | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
Gibraltar's going to be protected all the way, all the way, | :02:14. | :02:18. | |
because the sovereignty of Gibraltar cannot be changed without | :02:19. | :02:20. | |
the agreement of the people of Gibraltar and they have made it | :02:21. | :02:23. | |
very clear they do not want to live under Spanish rule | :02:24. | :02:25. | |
and it is interesting, I think, in the draft guidelines from the EU | :02:26. | :02:28. | |
that Spain is not saying that the whole thing is subject | :02:29. | :02:31. | |
Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is this a Spanish power grab or much | :02:32. | :02:43. | |
ado about nothing? It could be both. Clearly what is happening about this | :02:44. | :02:46. | |
negotiation and will happen again and again is that at different | :02:47. | :02:51. | |
points individual countries can start playing bargaining cards. They | :02:52. | :02:58. | |
will say, if you want a deal, you have to deliver this, UK. Spain is | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
doing it early. It might turn out to be nothing at all. It is an early | :03:04. | :03:10. | |
example of how to delete recruit after Article 50 is triggered, the | :03:11. | :03:17. | |
dynamic -- how after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic changes. At | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
certain points, any country can veto it. It gives them much more power | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
than we have clocked so far. Donald Tusk, the head of the European | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
Council, he went out of his way to say Britain mustn't deal by | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
laterally, with individual countries, it has to deal with the | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking to add this bit in about Spain? | :03:43. | :03:48. | |
Those two things do not tally. I think on our part, when I say we, I | :03:49. | :03:56. | |
mean the Foreign Office and Number 10, we dropped the ball. By | :03:57. | :04:00. | |
excluding Gibraltar from the letter of Article 50, they gave an | :04:01. | :04:04. | |
opportunity to the Spanish to steal the narrative. Why this is | :04:05. | :04:11. | |
important, presentation, things looked like they were going quite | :04:12. | :04:14. | |
well for Theresa May when she handed over the letter, for a few hours, | :04:15. | :04:20. | |
and suddenly, you have this incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. | :04:21. | :04:25. | |
For Brexiteers, the idea that there could be some kind of diminishment | :04:26. | :04:29. | |
or failure in relation to Gibraltar, it would be a very symbolic | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
illustration of things not going entirely to plan. Forget the detail, | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
it does not look great. Gibraltar got mentions in the white paper. | :04:39. | :04:44. | |
They did not get a mention in the Article 50 notification. Do you | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
think the British Government did not see this coming? To be honest, I do | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
not think it would make a bit of difference. Theresa May could have | :04:54. | :04:58. | |
an entire chapter in her letter to Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the | :04:59. | :05:01. | |
EU would have still tried this on. For me, it was as much a point of | :05:02. | :05:08. | |
symbolism than it was for any power grab. It was a good point to make. | :05:09. | :05:13. | |
You need to know, Britain, you are not in our club, we will not have | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
your interests at heart. Officials after the press conference, they | :05:19. | :05:21. | |
went on to talk about it saying it is a territorial dispute. It is not! | :05:22. | :05:30. | |
Gibraltar is British. It is very much a shot across the bow is. | :05:31. | :05:34. | |
Whether it comes to pass, it is still yet to be seen. I feel we will | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
be chasing hares like this for the next few years. There will be many | :05:40. | :05:46. | |
other examples. They are greatly empowered by the whole process. | :05:47. | :05:51. | |
Britain has not really got... It has got to wait and hear what their | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
interpretation of Brexit is. They will negotiate, we will negotiate | :05:57. | :06:00. | |
accordingly. I have some sympathy about the letter, the Article 50 | :06:01. | :06:05. | |
letter. They agonised over it, so much to get right in terms of | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
balance and tone. It would have been absurd to start mentioning Skegness | :06:11. | :06:15. | |
and everything else. Why not! Skegness, what did they do? It is a | :06:16. | :06:24. | |
real example of how the dynamic now changes. The Spanish royals are | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
going to come here in a couple of months, that could be interesting. | :06:30. | :06:37. | |
It will be good feelings breaking up, I am sure. -- breaking out. | :06:38. | :06:45. | |
So, after a historic week, the UK is now very much | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
But will it be a smooth journey to the exit door? | :06:49. | :06:52. | |
Or can we expect a bit of turbulence? | :06:53. | :06:54. | |
Are you taking back control, Prime Minister? | :06:55. | :06:56. | |
Big days in politics usually involve people shouting | :06:57. | :06:58. | |
and the Prime Minister getting in a car. | :06:59. | :07:00. | |
It is only a few hundred metres from Downing Street to Parliament. | :07:01. | :07:03. | |
But the short journey is the start of a much longer one | :07:04. | :07:06. | |
and we do not know exactly where we will all end up. | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
This is a historic moment from which there can | :07:12. | :07:13. | |
Moments earlier, this Dear John, sorry, Dear Don letter, | :07:14. | :07:22. | |
was delivered by Britain's ambassador in Brussels to the EU | :07:23. | :07:25. | |
He seemed genuinely upset to have been jilted. | :07:26. | :07:28. | |
Back in Westminster, hacks from around the world | :07:29. | :07:33. | |
were trying to work out what it all meant for the | :07:34. | :07:36. | |
So, here it is, a copy of the six-page letter | :07:37. | :07:43. | |
The letter reaffirms the PM's proposal to have talks on the exit | :07:44. | :07:50. | |
deal and a future trade deal at the same time. | :07:51. | :07:52. | |
It also mentioned the word "security" 11 times and stated | :07:53. | :07:54. | |
a failure to reach agreement would mean cooperation | :07:55. | :07:57. | |
in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened. | :07:58. | :08:00. | |
Later, our very own Andrew got to ask her what would happen | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
if Britain left the European policing agency, Europol. | :08:05. | :08:10. | |
We would not be able to access information in the same way | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
as we would as a member, so it is important, I think, | :08:15. | :08:17. | |
we are able to negotiate a continuing relationship that | :08:18. | :08:19. | |
enables us to work together in the way that we have. | :08:20. | :08:21. | |
That night, the Brexiteers were happy. | :08:22. | :08:23. | |
We did not have a Mad Hatter, but now we do. | :08:24. | :08:30. | |
Down the street, even the Remainers, having a Mad Hatters' tea party, | :08:31. | :08:33. | |
I am not sure that is actually Boris, though. | :08:34. | :08:42. | |
The next morning, the papers suggested Theresa May would use | :08:43. | :08:57. | |
security as a bargaining tool and threaten to withdraw the UK's | :08:58. | :08:57. | |
cooperation in this area if no deal was struck. | :08:58. | :08:58. | |
Downing Street denied it, as did the Brexit Secretary. | :08:59. | :08:58. | |
We can both cope, but we will both be worse off. | :08:59. | :09:01. | |
That seems to be a statement of fact, it is not a threat, | :09:02. | :09:04. | |
David Davis had other business that morning, | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
introducing the Great Repeal Bill, outling his plans to transfer | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
all EU law into British law to change later, | :09:11. | :09:12. | |
It is not without its critics but the Brexit Secretary said, | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
among other benefits, it would make trade talks easier | :09:18. | :09:19. | |
As we exit the EU and seek a new deep and special partnership | :09:20. | :09:26. | |
with the European Union, we are doing so from a position | :09:27. | :09:28. | |
where we have the same standards and rules. | :09:29. | :09:30. | |
It will also ensure we deliver on our promise to end the supremacy | :09:31. | :09:36. | |
of European Union law in the UK as we exit. | :09:37. | :09:39. | |
There was, though, a small issue with the name. | :09:40. | :09:46. | |
The Government hit an early hurdle with the Great Repeal Bill. | :09:47. | :09:49. | |
Parliamentary draughtsmen said they were not allowed | :09:50. | :09:51. | |
Great(!) so it is just the Repeal Bill. | :09:52. | :09:59. | |
So far, it had been a tale of two cities. | :10:00. | :10:02. | |
By Friday, there was another, Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders | :10:03. | :10:05. | |
were having a meeting and President Tusk, yes, him again, | :10:06. | :10:08. | |
set out draft guidelines for the EU Brexit strategy. | :10:09. | :10:14. | |
Once, and only once, we have achieved sufficient progress | :10:15. | :10:17. | |
on the withdrawal can we discuss the framework for our | :10:18. | :10:20. | |
Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time, | :10:21. | :10:23. | |
as suggested by some in the UK, will not happen. | :10:24. | :10:32. | |
The EU 27 does not and will not pursue a punitive approach. | :10:33. | :10:37. | |
Brexit in itself is already punitive enough. | :10:38. | :10:43. | |
The pressure on Theresa May to get the Brexit process going has now | :10:44. | :10:46. | |
gone and the stage is being set elsewhere for the showdown | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
But face-to-face discussions are not likely to happen | :10:50. | :10:59. | |
Before May or early June. No one is celebrating just yet. | :11:00. | :11:05. | |
We're joined now from Kent by the former Conservative | :11:06. | :11:07. | |
The EU says it will not talk about a future relationship with the UK | :11:08. | :11:15. | |
until there has been sufficient progress on agreeing the divorce | :11:16. | :11:18. | |
bill. Should the UK agree to this phased approach? Well, I think you | :11:19. | :11:27. | |
can make too much about the sequence and timing of the negotiations. I | :11:28. | :11:33. | |
assume that it will be a case of nothing is agreed until everything | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
is agreed and so any agreements that might be reached on things talked | :11:39. | :11:41. | |
about early on will be very provisional, so I think you can make | :11:42. | :11:47. | |
a big deal about the timing and the sequence when I do not think it | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
really matters as much as all that. Don't people have a right in this | :11:53. | :11:56. | |
country to be surprised of the talk of a massive multi-billion pound | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
divorce settlement? I do not remember either side making much of | :12:01. | :12:07. | |
this in the referendum, do you? No. A select committee of the House of | :12:08. | :12:11. | |
Lords recently reported and said that there was no legal basis for | :12:12. | :12:16. | |
any exit fee. We will have to see how the negotiations go. I think | :12:17. | :12:24. | |
some of the figures cited so far are wildly out of kilter and wildly | :12:25. | :12:27. | |
unrealistic. We will have to see what happens in the negotiations. As | :12:28. | :12:32. | |
one of your panel commented earlier, there will be lots of hares to | :12:33. | :12:37. | |
pursue over the next couple of years and we should not get too excited | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
about any of them. Would you accept that we make... It may not be | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
anything like the figures Brussels is kicking around of 50, 60 billion | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
euros, do you think we will have to make a one-off settlement? If we get | :12:52. | :13:00. | |
everything else we want, if we get a really good trade deal and access | :13:01. | :13:06. | |
for the City of London and so on, speaking for myself, I would be | :13:07. | :13:11. | |
prepared to make a modest payment. But it all depends on the deal we | :13:12. | :13:20. | |
get. What would modest be? Oh, I cannot give you a figure. We are | :13:21. | :13:23. | |
right at the start of the negotiations. I do not think that | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
would be agreed until near the end. The EU says that if there is a | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
transition period of several years after the negotiations, and there is | :13:34. | :13:37. | |
more talk of that, the UK must remain subject to the free movement | :13:38. | :13:43. | |
of peoples and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, would | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
that be acceptable to you? It depends on the nature of the | :13:49. | :13:51. | |
transitional agreement. We are getting well ahead of ourselves | :13:52. | :13:57. | |
here. You cannot, I think, for any judgment as to whether there should | :13:58. | :14:01. | |
be a transitional stage until you know what the final deal is. If | :14:02. | :14:05. | |
there is to be a final deal. And then you know how long it might take | :14:06. | :14:10. | |
to implement that deal. That is something I think that it is really | :14:11. | :14:17. | |
rather futile to talk about at this stage. It may become relevant, | :14:18. | :14:21. | |
depending on the nature of the deal, and that is the proper time to talk | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
about it and decide what the answer to the questions you pose might be. | :14:26. | :14:30. | |
Except the EU has laid this out in its negotiation mandate and it is | :14:31. | :14:36. | |
reasonable to ask people like yourself, should we accept that? It | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
is reasonable for me to say, they will raise all sorts of things in | :14:42. | :14:45. | |
their negotiating mandate and we do not need to form a view of all of | :14:46. | :14:50. | |
them at this stage. Let me try another one. The EU says if they do | :14:51. | :14:53. | |
agree what you have called a comprehensive free trade deal, we | :14:54. | :14:57. | |
would have to accept EU constraints on state aid and taxes like VAT and | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
corporation tax. Would you accept that? Again, I am not sure quite | :15:03. | :15:10. | |
what they have in mind on that. We will be an independent country when | :15:11. | :15:15. | |
we leave and we will make our own decisions about those matters. Not | :15:16. | :15:22. | |
according to know that -- to the negotiating mandate. As I have said, | :15:23. | :15:28. | |
they can put all sorts of things in the negotiating guidelines, it does | :15:29. | :15:32. | |
not mean we have to agree with them. No doubt that is something we can | :15:33. | :15:37. | |
discuss in the context of a free trade agreement. If we get a free | :15:38. | :15:41. | |
trade agreement, that is very important for them as well as for | :15:42. | :15:45. | |
us, and we can talk about some of the things you have just mentioned. | :15:46. | :15:52. | |
Can you please leave a 20 without having repatriated full control of | :15:53. | :16:01. | |
migration, taxis and the law? I think we will have repatriated all | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
three of those things by the time of the next general election. How high | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
would you rate the chances of no deal, and does that prospect worry | :16:12. | :16:18. | |
you? I think the chances are we will get the deal, and I think the | :16:19. | :16:21. | |
chances are we will get a good deal, because that is in the interests of | :16:22. | :16:26. | |
both sides of this negotiation. But it is not the end of the world if we | :16:27. | :16:33. | |
do not get a deal. Most trade in the world is carried out under World | :16:34. | :16:37. | |
Trade Organisation rules. We would be perfectly OK if we traded with | :16:38. | :16:42. | |
the European Union, as with everybody else, under World Trade | :16:43. | :16:46. | |
Organisation rules. It is better to get the deal, and I think we will | :16:47. | :16:51. | |
get the deal, because it is in the interests of both. Let me ask you | :16:52. | :16:55. | |
about Gibraltar. You have campaigned in Gibraltar when the sovereignty | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
issue came up under the Tony Blair government. The EU says that Spain | :17:00. | :17:06. | |
should have a veto on whether any free-trade deal should apply to the | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
Rock. How should the British government replied to that? As it | :17:11. | :17:14. | |
has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand | :17:15. | :17:21. | |
by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this week, Andrew, another woman Prime | :17:22. | :17:25. | |
Minister Centre task force is halfway across the world to protect | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
another small group of British people against another | :17:31. | :17:34. | |
Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely clear that our current | :17:35. | :17:38. | |
woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to | :17:39. | :17:50. | |
Gibraltar as her predecessor did. This is not about Spain invading | :17:51. | :17:52. | |
Gibraltar, it is not even about sovereignty, it is about Spain | :17:53. | :17:55. | |
having a veto over whether any free-trade deal that the UK makes | :17:56. | :17:57. | |
with the EU should also apply to Gibraltar. On that issue, how should | :17:58. | :18:04. | |
the British government respond? The British government should show | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
resolve. It is not in the interests of Spain, really, to interfere with | :18:09. | :18:12. | |
free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 people who live in Spain working | :18:13. | :18:17. | |
Gibraltar. That is a very important Spanish interest, so I am very | :18:18. | :18:22. | |
confident that in the end, we will be able to look after all the | :18:23. | :18:28. | |
interests of Gibraltar, including free trade. Michael Howard, thank | :18:29. | :18:31. | |
you for joining us from Kent this morning. | :18:32. | :18:34. | |
Although sometimes it seems like everyone has forgotten, | :18:35. | :18:35. | |
there are things happening other than Brexit. | :18:36. | :18:37. | |
In less than five weeks' time, there will be a round of important | :18:38. | :18:40. | |
domestic elections and there's a lot up for grabs. | :18:41. | :18:43. | |
Local elections take place on the 4th of May in England, | :18:44. | :18:46. | |
In England, there are elections in 34 councils, with 2,370 | :18:47. | :18:51. | |
The majority are county councils, usually areas of strength | :18:52. | :18:58. | |
Large cities where Labour usually fares better are not | :18:59. | :19:04. | |
Six regions of England will also hold elections for newly created | :19:05. | :19:08. | |
combined authority mayors, and there will be contests | :19:09. | :19:11. | |
for directly elected mayors, with voters in Manchester, | :19:12. | :19:18. | |
Liverpool and the West Midlands among those going to the polls. | :19:19. | :19:20. | |
In Scotland, every seat in all 32 councils are being contested, | :19:21. | :19:23. | |
many of them affected by boundary changes. | :19:24. | :19:25. | |
Since these seats were last contested, Labour lost all but one | :19:26. | :19:28. | |
Meanwhile, every seat in each of Wales' 22 councils | :19:29. | :19:33. | |
All but one was last elected in 2012 in what was a very | :19:34. | :19:40. | |
strong year for Labour, though independent | :19:41. | :19:41. | |
candidates currently hold a quarter of council seats. | :19:42. | :19:44. | |
According to the latest calculations by Plymouth | :19:45. | :19:46. | |
University Election Centre, the Tories are predicted | :19:47. | :19:51. | |
to increase their tally by 50 seats, despite being in government, | :19:52. | :19:54. | |
But the dramatic story in England looks to be with the other parties, | :19:55. | :20:00. | |
with the Lib-Dems possibly winning 100 seats, while Ukip | :20:01. | :20:03. | |
could be seeing a fall, predicted to lose 100 seats. | :20:04. | :20:08. | |
Though the proportional system usually makes big changes | :20:09. | :20:10. | |
less likely in Scotland, the SNP is predicted to increase | :20:11. | :20:13. | |
both the number of seats they hold, and the number | :20:14. | :20:15. | |
In Wales, Labour is defending a high water mark in support. | :20:16. | :20:24. | |
Last year's Welsh Assembly elections suggest the only way is down, | :20:25. | :20:27. | |
with all the parties making modest gains at Labour's expense. | :20:28. | :20:29. | |
Joining me now is the BBC's very own elections guru, | :20:30. | :20:32. | |
Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde. | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
Good to see you again. Let's start with England. How bad are the | :20:36. | :20:42. | |
selection is going to be for Labour? Labourer not defending a great deal | :20:43. | :20:47. | |
because this is for the most part rural England. The only control | :20:48. | :20:50. | |
three of the council they are defending and they are only | :20:51. | :20:55. | |
defending around 500 seats, I nearly a quarter are in one county, Durham. | :20:56. | :20:59. | |
Labour's position in the opinion polls is weakened over the last 12 | :21:00. | :21:02. | |
months and if you compare the position in the opinion polls now | :21:03. | :21:15. | |
with where they were in the spring of 2013 when these seats in England | :21:16. | :21:18. | |
were last fought, we are talking about a 12 point swing from Labour | :21:19. | :21:21. | |
to conservative. The estimate of 50 losses may be somewhat optimistic | :21:22. | :21:23. | |
for Labour. Of the three council areas they control, two of them, | :21:24. | :21:27. | |
Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, could be lost, leaving labourer with | :21:28. | :21:31. | |
virtually a duck as far as council control is concerned in these | :21:32. | :21:35. | |
elections in England. In England, what would a Liberal Democrat | :21:36. | :21:39. | |
reserve urgently great? That is the big question. We have had this | :21:40. | :21:44. | |
picture since the EU referendum of the Liberal Democrats doing | :21:45. | :21:48. | |
extraordinarily well in some local by-elections, gaining seats that | :21:49. | :21:55. | |
they had not even fought before, and in other areas, doing no more than | :21:56. | :21:58. | |
treading water. We are expecting a Liberal Democrat skin because the | :21:59. | :22:00. | |
lost the lot -- the lost lots of ground when they were in coalition | :22:01. | :22:04. | |
with the Conservatives. It is uncertain. A patchy performance may | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
well be to their advantage. If they do well in some places and gain | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
seats, and elsewhere do not do terribly well and do not waste | :22:13. | :22:15. | |
votes, they may end up doing relatively well in seats, even if | :22:16. | :22:20. | |
the overall gaining votes is likely to be modest. The elections for | :22:21. | :22:23. | |
mayors, they are taking place in the Labour will that be a hefty | :22:24. | :22:56. | |
consolation prize for the Labour Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, | :22:57. | :22:58. | |
Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We are looking at one content very | :22:59. | :23:01. | |
closely, that is the contest for the mayor of the West Midlands. If you | :23:02. | :23:03. | |
look at what happened in the general election in 2015, labourer work nine | :23:04. | :23:06. | |
points ahead of the Conservatives in the West Midlands. If you look at | :23:07. | :23:08. | |
the swing since the general election, if you add that swing to | :23:09. | :23:11. | |
where we were two years ago, the West Midlands now looks like a draw. | :23:12. | :23:14. | |
Labour have to worry about a headline grabbing loss, and the West | :23:15. | :23:16. | |
Midlands contest. If they were to lose, that wooden crate -- that | :23:17. | :23:18. | |
would increase the pressure for their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince | :23:19. | :23:22. | |
people that they can turn his party's fortunes around, and in | :23:23. | :23:27. | |
truth at the moment, they are pretty dire. The West Midlands has | :23:28. | :23:30. | |
Birmingham as its heart. Chock-a-block with marginal seats. | :23:31. | :23:36. | |
It always has been. I always remember election night and marginal | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
seats in the West Midlands. Scotland, the SNP is assaulting | :23:41. | :23:48. | |
Labour's last remaining power base. The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it | :23:49. | :23:53. | |
take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP will gain control of Glasgow is | :23:54. | :23:58. | |
uncertain. If you look at what is happening in local government | :23:59. | :24:03. | |
by-elections let alone the opinion polls, in 2012, when these seats | :24:04. | :24:07. | |
were last fought, Labour did relatively well, only one percentage | :24:08. | :24:11. | |
point behind the SNP who were rather disappointed with the result | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
compared to other elections. No sign of that happening this time alone -- | :24:16. | :24:24. | |
this time around. Polls put the SNP ahead. By-elections have found the | :24:25. | :24:27. | |
SNP advancing and Labour dropping by double digits. Labour are going to | :24:28. | :24:30. | |
lose everything they currently control in Scotland, the SNP will | :24:31. | :24:33. | |
become the dominant party, the question is how well they do. In | :24:34. | :24:38. | |
Scotland there is a Conservative revival going on. The Conservatives | :24:39. | :24:42. | |
did well in recent local government by-elections. At the moment, Labour | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
are expected to come third north of the border in the local elections, | :24:47. | :24:49. | |
are expected to come third north of repeating the third they suffered in | :24:50. | :24:55. | |
the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose | :24:56. | :24:58. | |
control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22 | :24:59. | :25:04. | |
local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose | :25:05. | :25:08. | |
ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought, | :25:09. | :25:13. | |
labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff | :25:14. | :25:18. | |
could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold. | :25:19. | :25:24. | |
Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour | :25:25. | :25:26. | |
control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid | :25:27. | :25:42. | |
Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in | :25:43. | :25:44. | |
the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be | :25:45. | :25:47. | |
judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion | :25:48. | :25:49. | |
polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it | :25:50. | :25:52. | |
affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect | :25:53. | :25:59. | |
his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by | :26:00. | :26:02. | |
this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and | :26:03. | :26:07. | |
others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence | :26:08. | :26:13. | |
and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some | :26:14. | :26:18. | |
kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the | :26:19. | :26:22. | |
argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12 | :26:23. | :26:29. | |
months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament, | :26:30. | :26:36. | |
up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some | :26:37. | :26:40. | |
impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will | :26:41. | :26:46. | |
mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it | :26:47. | :26:52. | |
will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That | :26:53. | :26:57. | |
is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive | :26:58. | :27:02. | |
reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the | :27:03. | :27:06. | |
fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she | :27:07. | :27:09. | |
believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West | :27:10. | :27:14. | |
who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were | :27:15. | :27:17. | |
worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems. | :27:18. | :27:21. | |
The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got | :27:22. | :27:26. | |
other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the | :27:27. | :27:30. | |
success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face | :27:35. | :27:41. | |
before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a | :27:42. | :27:46. | |
good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results | :27:47. | :27:52. | |
will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem | :27:53. | :28:12. | |
threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory | :28:13. | :28:15. | |
party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried | :28:16. | :28:18. | |
about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems | :28:19. | :28:20. | |
because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve | :28:21. | :28:22. | |
about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding | :28:23. | :28:24. | |
repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think | :28:25. | :28:27. | |
he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership | :28:28. | :28:29. | |
contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to | :28:30. | :28:34. | |
be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they | :28:35. | :28:40. | |
were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland, | :28:41. | :28:45. | |
it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of | :28:46. | :28:49. | |
self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice. | :28:50. | :28:51. | |
Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it | :28:52. | :28:54. | |
Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew | :28:55. | :28:57. | |
Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces | :28:58. | :28:59. | |
It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the | :29:00. | :29:04. | |
Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool. | :29:05. | :29:06. | |
If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool. | :29:07. | :29:10. | |
Labour is trying to do something much harder, | :29:11. | :29:12. | |
which is to try and speak for the whole country, | :29:13. | :29:15. | |
and by the way, that is another part of | :29:16. | :29:17. | |
Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's | :29:18. | :29:21. | |
Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying, | :29:22. | :29:27. | |
let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%. | :29:28. | :29:29. | |
By the way, there is more that unites Remainers | :29:30. | :29:35. | |
and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common | :29:36. | :29:37. | |
concerns about the way the country is run. | :29:38. | :29:42. | |
Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth. | :29:43. | :29:47. | |
Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on | :29:48. | :29:52. | |
Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed | :29:53. | :29:57. | |
Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms | :29:58. | :30:03. | |
with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I | :30:04. | :30:08. | |
campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I | :30:09. | :30:12. | |
represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union. | :30:13. | :30:16. | |
Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this | :30:22. | :30:26. | |
democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant | :30:27. | :30:34. | |
legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before | :30:35. | :30:42. | |
Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I | :30:43. | :30:48. | |
will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election | :30:49. | :30:57. | |
date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across | :30:58. | :31:01. | |
the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what | :31:02. | :31:06. | |
Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We | :31:07. | :31:10. | |
have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No, | :31:11. | :31:18. | |
your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we | :31:19. | :31:25. | |
have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those | :31:26. | :31:28. | |
types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies | :31:29. | :31:32. | |
that decide general elections. The important places in the elections | :31:33. | :31:38. | |
are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are | :31:39. | :31:45. | |
marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well | :31:46. | :31:49. | |
in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to | :31:50. | :31:52. | |
campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who | :31:53. | :32:00. | |
voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime | :32:01. | :32:06. | |
Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen | :32:07. | :32:11. | |
that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is | :32:12. | :32:18. | |
important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the | :32:19. | :32:23. | |
trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people | :32:24. | :32:30. | |
who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for | :32:31. | :32:34. | |
other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate | :32:35. | :32:38. | |
that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am | :32:39. | :32:43. | |
not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see | :32:44. | :32:48. | |
online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to | :32:49. | :32:53. | |
switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was | :32:54. | :32:57. | |
not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our | :32:58. | :33:03. | |
neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from | :33:04. | :33:08. | |
voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among | :33:09. | :33:16. | |
nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the | :33:17. | :33:20. | |
mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this, | :33:21. | :33:27. | |
in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is | :33:28. | :33:36. | |
less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond | :33:37. | :33:41. | |
extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of | :33:42. | :33:45. | |
elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate | :33:46. | :33:52. | |
city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that | :33:53. | :33:58. | |
of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an | :33:59. | :34:05. | |
anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn, | :34:06. | :34:13. | |
from memory. We have not got elections in London but our | :34:14. | :34:17. | |
elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections... | :34:18. | :34:27. | |
What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it | :34:33. | :34:38. | |
is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do | :34:39. | :34:42. | |
well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley, | :34:43. | :34:49. | |
Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the | :34:50. | :34:54. | |
general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you? | :34:55. | :35:00. | |
What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative | :35:01. | :35:05. | |
garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me | :35:06. | :35:09. | |
about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to | :35:10. | :35:14. | |
you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people | :35:15. | :35:18. | |
the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks | :35:19. | :35:23. | |
so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements | :35:24. | :35:29. | |
and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey | :35:30. | :35:32. | |
was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education | :35:33. | :35:37. | |
spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools. | :35:38. | :35:41. | |
Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the | :35:42. | :35:46. | |
Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are | :35:47. | :35:49. | |
working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does | :35:50. | :35:55. | |
it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three | :35:56. | :36:01. | |
times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a | :36:02. | :36:05. | |
huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter | :36:06. | :36:09. | |
and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in | :36:10. | :36:17. | |
the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls | :36:18. | :36:24. | |
are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of | :36:25. | :36:29. | |
government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that | :36:30. | :36:32. | |
the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years | :36:33. | :36:36. | |
because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes | :36:37. | :36:42. | |
this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault | :36:43. | :36:46. | |
on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for | :36:47. | :36:51. | |
government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading | :36:52. | :36:56. | |
for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me | :36:57. | :36:59. | |
have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an | :37:00. | :37:02. | |
individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are | :37:07. | :37:09. | |
people and if we do not do that, if letting people down. Is Labour | :37:10. | :37:12. | |
preparing for an early election question Billy burqa? Reports in the | :37:13. | :37:20. | |
press of a war chest as macro for an early election? The general election | :37:21. | :37:25. | |
coordinator called for a general election when Theresa May became | :37:26. | :37:28. | |
coordinator called for a general Prime Minister. We are investing in | :37:29. | :37:30. | |
staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the | :37:31. | :37:36. | |
Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter | :37:37. | :37:41. | |
having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the | :37:42. | :37:44. | |
election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you. | :37:45. | :37:56. | |
Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland. | :37:57. | :37:58. | |
It seems emails are just sooo 2016, as this week a retro blast | :37:59. | :38:04. | |
from the past sees our leaders looking for pen friends. | :38:05. | :38:07. | |
Theresa May's letter got a swift response. | :38:08. | :38:10. | |
So far, though, it seems Nicola Sturgeon is still | :38:11. | :38:12. | |
I'll be asking her Minister for Brexit what happens | :38:13. | :38:17. | |
Also - as the Great Repeal Bill is launched to repatriate | :38:18. | :38:23. | |
powers from Brussels, a constitutional expert tells this | :38:24. | :38:26. | |
programme the Scotland Act will need to be redrawn if the UK is to have | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
any powers over issues like farming and fishing. | :38:31. | :38:36. | |
And, Council Elections are looming, but this time round will | :38:37. | :38:38. | |
constitutional matters trump local issues for voters. | :38:39. | :38:40. | |
We've been to Glasgow's Govanhill to try and find out. | :38:41. | :38:46. | |
Now, apart from the row over whether there should be another | :38:47. | :38:49. | |
independence referendum, another row is brewing over | :38:50. | :38:51. | |
which powers should be devolved and which should be reserved | :38:52. | :38:53. | |
to the UK Government when Britain leaves the European Union. | :38:54. | :38:57. | |
The presumption of the Scotland Act is that powers in areas like farming | :38:58. | :39:01. | |
and fishing will be fully devolved, but some are arguing it would be | :39:02. | :39:04. | |
A little earlier I spoke to the constitutional expert | :39:05. | :39:09. | |
When powers are devolved back from Brussels to either London or | :39:10. | :39:23. | |
Edinburgh, there seems to be some question about whether the Scotland | :39:24. | :39:29. | |
act would have to be amended if for example some powers on agriculture | :39:30. | :39:32. | |
where to rest with Westminster. What is your take on that? It would have | :39:33. | :39:40. | |
two be because one, the provision of Scottish legislation has to conform | :39:41. | :39:45. | |
with European legislation has been taken away these powers come back to | :39:46. | :39:50. | |
Holyrood not reserved to Westminster so either the Scotland act would | :39:51. | :39:53. | |
have to be changed or some other legislation would have to be put in | :39:54. | :39:57. | |
formal writing, in the Scotland act. With that apply... There are certain | :39:58. | :40:04. | |
things that would be an argument are quite reasonable to reserve for | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
devolving to Scotland and the Palmer devolving to Scotland and the Palmer | :40:08. | :40:13. | |
-- power of subsidies to farmers, or common standards across the UK for | :40:14. | :40:18. | |
farms perhaps so that people can sell agricultural produce throughout | :40:19. | :40:22. | |
the UK, there is a UK single market. For things like that would still had | :40:23. | :40:27. | |
to be an amendment? There would have to be some kind of framework. It is | :40:28. | :40:32. | |
also to do with subsidies as well, you would have to have a common | :40:33. | :40:38. | |
ground across the UK otherwise there would be unfair competition and if | :40:39. | :40:41. | |
the UK signs the free trade agreement with the EU or anyone | :40:42. | :40:48. | |
else, that covers agricultural subsidies. Those frameworks could be | :40:49. | :40:51. | |
delivered in two ways. Either the UK could lay down the law from above or | :40:52. | :40:56. | |
you could do what the worst government has suggested dues have a | :40:57. | :41:01. | |
four nation partnership and negotiation about what those common | :41:02. | :41:06. | |
standards might be. When it comes to subsidies there is an an argument I | :41:07. | :41:09. | |
suppose that the last thing Scotland should want is full devolution | :41:10. | :41:17. | |
because we get a disproportionate share of Cameron agricultural policy | :41:18. | :41:19. | |
funds and if that were just repatriated and then an advised, | :41:20. | :41:25. | |
presumably Scotland could lose out, by hundreds of millions. Let's get | :41:26. | :41:30. | |
that straight. The formula says we get what we already get and then | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
every year thereafter any increase or change in English expenditure is | :41:37. | :41:40. | |
it tribute it according to population so we get our percent of | :41:41. | :41:44. | |
the common agricultural policy subsidies at the moment and under | :41:45. | :41:49. | |
the next appraisal is we still get that present. If it was a per capita | :41:50. | :41:54. | |
allocation then that would be different but so far the UK | :41:55. | :41:59. | |
Government says it doesn't know how it will distribute those monies and | :42:00. | :42:03. | |
in Scotland there is complete freedom in determining how that | :42:04. | :42:05. | |
money is spent, as it would under the Barnett formula, then support | :42:06. | :42:10. | |
for farmers would compete with support for the NHS, education, | :42:11. | :42:13. | |
social services and all the other support for the NHS, education, | :42:14. | :42:18. | |
problems, and that would be a difficult decision to make for the | :42:19. | :42:20. | |
Scottish Government. Why do you say that there would have to be a UK | :42:21. | :42:25. | |
wide regime for subsidies? Surely he could determine subsidies for home | :42:26. | :42:30. | |
farmers in Scotland independent of the UK? It might lead to imbalances | :42:31. | :42:34. | |
farmers in Scotland independent of in terms of condition but these | :42:35. | :42:38. | |
wouldn't be major, would they? They could be if we wanted to subsidise | :42:39. | :42:39. | |
our lamb, say, and sell it in the UK could be if we wanted to subsidise | :42:40. | :42:46. | |
market, Welsh lamb farmers would be unhappy, saying that was unfair | :42:47. | :42:51. | |
competition. European Union deals with this with the competition | :42:52. | :42:56. | |
policy and we don't have European competition policy, so they would | :42:57. | :42:59. | |
have to be some kind of competition policy in the UK, not just for | :43:00. | :43:03. | |
agriculture but also regional development. Of all sorts. We have | :43:04. | :43:12. | |
to have a UK internal market, if losing the European one. Thank you | :43:13. | :43:13. | |
very much rejoining us. Well, the Scottish Government's | :43:14. | :43:14. | |
Brexit minister Mike Russell joins That's a beautiful where you are. | :43:15. | :43:34. | |
Let me just get your reaction to a piece of neither is coming this | :43:35. | :43:38. | |
morning was up and not sure if you are aware of it but the Spanish | :43:39. | :43:43. | |
Foreign Minister has said this morning that Spain would not block | :43:44. | :43:48. | |
an independent Scotland becoming a member of the European union. He | :43:49. | :43:54. | |
said that we don't want that Scottish independence to happen but | :43:55. | :43:57. | |
if it happens legally and constitutionally are they would not | :43:58. | :44:03. | |
block it. Your reaction? That has been the position of the Spanish | :44:04. | :44:06. | |
government for some considerable time. Although speculation about | :44:07. | :44:09. | |
what the Spanish government would or would not do as being wrong, that | :44:10. | :44:13. | |
has been the position of the Spanish government, it is helpful to have it | :44:14. | :44:16. | |
restated but that is not actually news. Presumably you welcome it | :44:17. | :44:22. | |
nonetheless? I very much welcome it because it equates with reality. He | :44:23. | :44:27. | |
has gone on to talk about the method of accession and that isn't quite as | :44:28. | :44:30. | |
accurate. This week we heard John Kirby man he wrote Article 50, the | :44:31. | :44:35. | |
former British representative talking about the ease of entry into | :44:36. | :44:38. | |
Europe where we to be outside. So there has been a lot of positive to | :44:39. | :44:44. | |
take, and what this does it de-escalates the situation, | :44:45. | :44:47. | |
producing some reality in the situation so then we can have an | :44:48. | :44:50. | |
argument about the merits of the case, not misinformation from range | :44:51. | :44:55. | |
argument about the merits of the of sources. Now, Michael Keating | :44:56. | :44:58. | |
from because additional expert, he told us their comments not sure if | :44:59. | :45:03. | |
you could hear him, his point was the Scotland act is going to have to | :45:04. | :45:10. | |
be revisited and changed, what is your view on that? I think he is | :45:11. | :45:15. | |
right, we have said this some considerable time. The way that | :45:16. | :45:18. | |
devolution has been established essentially everything is devolved | :45:19. | :45:23. | |
except items which are reserved to Westminster. If Western wants to | :45:24. | :45:26. | |
reserve new items or parts of things devolved them that will require them | :45:27. | :45:30. | |
to reopen the Scotland act. We recognise that there has to be | :45:31. | :45:35. | |
constructive, detailed negotiation about proposals in the great reform | :45:36. | :45:41. | |
Bill. What there -- it should be about how we manage to work together | :45:42. | :45:48. | |
in order to install a new regime. That is separate from the issue of a | :45:49. | :45:52. | |
referendum. There is work to be done because nobody wants to get to the | :45:53. | :45:56. | |
end of two years and discovered that there is a complete hiatus so we | :45:57. | :46:00. | |
need those negotiations and the problem we have seen with the Great | :46:01. | :46:03. | |
Repeal Bill White Paper this week is that it is not detailed enough and | :46:04. | :46:08. | |
the DJ does have is not helpful, like the repatriation of powers | :46:09. | :46:11. | |
section, so I have urged David Davis to say to sit down, talk a great | :46:12. | :46:16. | |
deal about this comment officials working on it so we get it right but | :46:17. | :46:18. | |
Westminster should have known for a long time. They wanted to be | :46:19. | :46:23. | |
reserved powers they would have to go back to the original legislation. | :46:24. | :46:27. | |
In principle you would not be against ending the Scotland Bill | :46:28. | :46:30. | |
should those discussions take place and have some successful conclusion? | :46:31. | :46:36. | |
In principle I would be very much against them, that would weaken | :46:37. | :46:42. | |
devolution and as has been set for some time that is probably the Tory | :46:43. | :46:46. | |
agenda. We need a decent discussion of how the Great Repeal Bill can | :46:47. | :46:50. | |
work so Scotland and Wales get back all the powers pertaining to | :46:51. | :46:55. | |
devolved areas which is important. Michael Keating mention the Welsh | :46:56. | :46:58. | |
government and we want to go along with them. Assist take the case of | :46:59. | :47:03. | |
agriculture. There is an argument isn't that on things like farming | :47:04. | :47:07. | |
standards we need a UK framework so that there is a UK single market so | :47:08. | :47:11. | |
that Scottish farmers can freely sell into it. That would have to be | :47:12. | :47:17. | |
run from the UK, and the UK level and I can't quite see why you would | :47:18. | :47:20. | |
be against that? But that itself might be an amendment to the | :47:21. | :47:25. | |
Scotland act. Not necessarily do not necessarily. Two things. The first, | :47:26. | :47:29. | |
there is a valid will continue if the Great Repeal Bill as it operates | :47:30. | :47:34. | |
is in as intended to, that will continue, standards will be the same | :47:35. | :47:42. | |
so no urgent changes are needed. How do we negotiate a common framework | :47:43. | :47:46. | |
we agree strongly with the Welsh and elements of Northern Ireland so you | :47:47. | :47:49. | |
repatriate those powers and all sit around together and say how can we | :47:50. | :47:52. | |
make these work together? That replicates what happens in Europe | :47:53. | :47:57. | |
because it is co-decision-making in Europe, you have the Council of | :47:58. | :48:00. | |
ministers, decisions are made jointly, and what the UK Government | :48:01. | :48:04. | |
seems to be talking about is their making the decision and that would | :48:05. | :48:10. | |
not bring back the powers. What also happens in Europe is once you have | :48:11. | :48:14. | |
this co-determination there is a single market framework laid down | :48:15. | :48:18. | |
and everyone in Europe has to play by the rules. The argument is and | :48:19. | :48:23. | |
you had Michael Keating saying that for farming for example there needs | :48:24. | :48:27. | |
to be a UK framework which everyone agrees on but obviously that would | :48:28. | :48:33. | |
have to be managed at a UK level. It would have to be managed by the four | :48:34. | :48:37. | |
nations of the UK working together. It should not be imposed by the UK | :48:38. | :48:42. | |
Government and everybody just does as they are told because there are | :48:43. | :48:48. | |
huge variations. What they would have to be a single framework. The | :48:49. | :48:52. | |
framework would have to be negotiated. Every person farming the | :48:53. | :49:00. | |
hills behind me get a different payment from England for example. | :49:01. | :49:03. | |
There are different payments required for different products and | :49:04. | :49:06. | |
farming types. That is a local decision but that can be come | :49:07. | :49:09. | |
together and agree framework but if they are imposed they will not get | :49:10. | :49:14. | |
the type of frameworks that we need here and awe in Wales. Local | :49:15. | :49:17. | |
decision making and working together. What the UK Government is | :49:18. | :49:23. | |
looking at eyes in position and that is unacceptable. They haven't made | :49:24. | :49:28. | |
that clear to you, have they? They haven't said that to you. If you | :49:29. | :49:34. | |
read section four four of the Great Repeal Bill Curry you will see the | :49:35. | :49:40. | |
intention Bill towards common UK framework. We need to discover how | :49:41. | :49:44. | |
those work. If we are talking about repatriating work... The working the | :49:45. | :49:51. | |
areas we are talking about, makes sense, doesn't it estimate you have | :49:52. | :49:56. | |
accepted that. At think it is rather important that the decision making | :49:57. | :50:00. | |
process is the right one, to make things happen here. We have been | :50:01. | :50:04. | |
talking about this for months as have the Welsh, and the worst First | :50:05. | :50:07. | |
Minister indicated today that they have been getting nowhere because | :50:08. | :50:10. | |
the UK Government has been issuing a version will what is happening now | :50:11. | :50:16. | |
with Gibraltar, and others, the Prime Minister is not listening and | :50:17. | :50:21. | |
that is not acceptable. Apart in the Scotland act possible amendments the | :50:22. | :50:24. | |
other issue coming up this week is whether at various stages similar | :50:25. | :50:30. | |
motions, legislative consent motions might have to be passed by the | :50:31. | :50:33. | |
Scottish Government, parliament, rather come in order for Brexit to | :50:34. | :50:37. | |
go ahead. Have you looked at that and what is your view? The Secretary | :50:38. | :50:48. | |
of State for Scotland said and David Davies said he did not know. When we | :50:49. | :50:53. | |
seek the bill, we only have a white Paper now, it will require consent. | :50:54. | :50:58. | |
Legislative consent is about altering the competencies of the | :50:59. | :51:02. | |
Parliament or the Government. There is no doubt that is what these do. | :51:03. | :51:05. | |
That is a discussion we need to have. There will then be a great | :51:06. | :51:11. | |
deal of secondary legislation. They are talking about thousands of | :51:12. | :51:14. | |
pieces of legislation. How we get those through and how we deal with | :51:15. | :51:18. | |
those in the time frame we have is also a big area for discussion. What | :51:19. | :51:23. | |
we now need is discussion with the UK Government, sitting down with us | :51:24. | :51:28. | |
and saying, this is our options, this is how we intend to do things. | :51:29. | :51:32. | |
Until we have that, we cannot make much progress. If you were to block | :51:33. | :51:41. | |
any of those legislative consent motions, is that something you would | :51:42. | :51:46. | |
consider doing if you do not get your permission for a referendum? | :51:47. | :51:50. | |
What the occasions of that? What we are talking about here is trying to | :51:51. | :51:55. | |
take and enormously complex body of legislation and change at all within | :51:56. | :51:59. | |
a two-year period. It is in the body's interest to get that wrong. | :52:00. | :52:04. | |
It has to be got right. We need a type of working relationship that | :52:05. | :52:08. | |
will get that right. We do not see much sign of it now. The last six | :52:09. | :52:14. | |
months, we have not had it. The referendum is another issue, which | :52:15. | :52:19. | |
we also need cooperation. Just briefly, when I interviewed you the | :52:20. | :52:25. | |
other day, I thought that you ruled out any referendum to be held | :52:26. | :52:30. | |
outside of section 30 order. But five minutes after you said it, | :52:31. | :52:35. | |
Willie Rennie, you need of the Liberal Democrats, said he had not | :52:36. | :52:39. | |
ruled it out. Had you ruled it out or not? If we keep going back to | :52:40. | :52:44. | |
what really Rennie says we will not make much sense. It is clear we are | :52:45. | :52:48. | |
going to do this legally and buy the book. I rule out any other way of | :52:49. | :52:53. | |
doing it. That is clear, I think. Until it is challenged by someone. | :52:54. | :52:56. | |
Thank you very much indeed for joining me. | :52:57. | :52:58. | |
Now, there are accusations that the Great Repeal Bill | :52:59. | :53:01. | |
is nothing more than a Westminster power grab. | :53:02. | :53:03. | |
With me now from Liverpool is Patrick Harvie who is very | :53:04. | :53:05. | |
much of that persuasion and here in the studio | :53:06. | :53:07. | |
Patrick Harvey, you have heard the discussion. There is a sensible | :53:08. | :53:17. | |
argument, isn't there, that the areas of farming, you do want a UK | :53:18. | :53:24. | |
single market. Some powers, maybe not powers, but you have to have a | :53:25. | :53:27. | |
UK single market framework and the bodies that would police that would | :53:28. | :53:34. | |
have to be UK bodies. There is a question there about where you want | :53:35. | :53:39. | |
to get to, how much cooperation you want between Scotland, the rest of | :53:40. | :53:43. | |
the UK and what is currently the European single market. That is a | :53:44. | :53:46. | |
great deal of trade that is important to farmers and all parts | :53:47. | :53:50. | |
of Europe. That requires common standards. It is not just where do | :53:51. | :53:55. | |
we want to get in terms of having that free flow of trade, it is also | :53:56. | :54:00. | |
how do we get there. What the UK Government is a process of why | :54:01. | :54:06. | |
passing parliamentary scrutiny. You are saying that and Mike Russell | :54:07. | :54:10. | |
said that but you have no evidence for that. The British Government | :54:11. | :54:13. | |
have not said how the intent go about doing this at all. It is | :54:14. | :54:19. | |
unclear. We have certainly gave a lack of detail in their repeal Bill. | :54:20. | :54:21. | |
unclear. We have certainly gave a They have made it clear that they | :54:22. | :54:26. | |
want to give these ancient powers to ministers to be right laws without | :54:27. | :54:30. | |
proper parliamentary scrutiny. I think it is important that we hold | :54:31. | :54:34. | |
ministers to account in both parliaments. If ministers and both | :54:35. | :54:37. | |
governments are going to be given these powers, real parliamentary | :54:38. | :54:42. | |
scrutiny is necessary. We know that many of the Tories are already | :54:43. | :54:46. | |
pushing for a bonfire of the regulations and even citing what | :54:47. | :54:51. | |
Donald Trump is doing, ripping up the regulations and environmental | :54:52. | :54:54. | |
protections. They want that on social standards, the working | :54:55. | :54:58. | |
director, renewable energy directive. Is single market is not | :54:59. | :55:02. | |
just about trade, it is also about the common standards that protect us | :55:03. | :55:07. | |
all and they want to use the cover of the Henry VIII powers to rip up | :55:08. | :55:12. | |
these regulations. We need to stand against that effort. Somebody can | :55:13. | :55:17. | |
tell me in my ear, I am wondering how long can get into this programme | :55:18. | :55:20. | |
without someone mentioning Henry VIII. We are there. Jackson Carlaw, | :55:21. | :55:27. | |
as there is the intention of the British Government as far as you | :55:28. | :55:32. | |
know? Patrick sprays his grievances around and paragraphs, not | :55:33. | :55:35. | |
sentences. They are layered thick. It is clear from the article 15 | :55:36. | :55:41. | |
letter that the Prime Minister has tabled, she expects the devolved | :55:42. | :55:45. | |
ministrations to end up with more responsibility. What she has not | :55:46. | :55:48. | |
done is make clear the sort of things that might Russell wants to | :55:49. | :55:53. | |
be made clear. Before he layered on grievance, he was taking quite a | :55:54. | :55:56. | |
constructive tone. This just has to be a discussion between the | :55:57. | :56:03. | |
different administrations about what is pragmatic and sensible. Would you | :56:04. | :56:07. | |
accept the Scotland Act would have to be amended? I would accept it as | :56:08. | :56:13. | |
possible. There will need to be basic frameworks and we do not want | :56:14. | :56:18. | |
to end up with frameworks that then end up as an obstacle to internal | :56:19. | :56:22. | |
trade within the United Kingdom, particularly in agriculture. So much | :56:23. | :56:26. | |
of our export is actually down to England. We do not want different | :56:27. | :56:30. | |
regimes that make that difficult. There is to be a pragmatic approach | :56:31. | :56:34. | |
to this. We do not know to be looking to see devious Unionist | :56:35. | :56:39. | |
under the bed, who have a different agenda. We want what is best and | :56:40. | :56:43. | |
what is best for Scotland outside the European Union and is part of | :56:44. | :56:48. | |
the United Kingdom. Patrick Harvey, many people who bought Green will be | :56:49. | :56:53. | |
watching this and think why is he banging his Scottish nationalist | :56:54. | :56:57. | |
drum about who does what. Why is he not saying this is a fantastic | :56:58. | :57:01. | |
chance for Britain to get rid of the ludicrous common agricultural policy | :57:02. | :57:05. | |
and completely redesign a system of subsidies to farmers and on | :57:06. | :57:11. | |
environmental grounds? Garden, you know as well as anybody this is not | :57:12. | :57:16. | |
a contest between one kind of nationalism and another. I am | :57:17. | :57:20. | |
neither a nationalist of any kind. I do not accuse other people on the | :57:21. | :57:25. | |
other side of being nationalists. This is about the European Union has | :57:26. | :57:30. | |
been where we have derived and agreed a huge raft of our social and | :57:31. | :57:35. | |
environmental protections. The legislation that looks after our | :57:36. | :57:39. | |
quality of life, health, the quality of our water, huge amount of | :57:40. | :57:43. | |
environmental regulation comes from Europe and is under direct threat | :57:44. | :57:46. | |
from the UK Government, including its backbenchers and cheerleaders in | :57:47. | :57:53. | |
the white right wing press. -- right wing press. You want to rip it up? | :57:54. | :58:02. | |
Of course there is reform. If we end up outside of Europe, we will | :58:03. | :58:06. | |
continue to argue for the state of agricultural and industry. Why was | :58:07. | :58:11. | |
the first thing you said today not, we do not want... We want powers for | :58:12. | :58:16. | |
Holyrood. Why was it not this ludicrous system that you rip runs | :58:17. | :58:23. | |
of paying farmers subsidies just for having farms has got to go and be | :58:24. | :58:28. | |
replaced on subsidies on how people take place of the environment? There | :58:29. | :58:32. | |
has been improvement but there is more improvement we can have if we | :58:33. | :58:37. | |
are in it. We will continue to argue for a more sustainable system and | :58:38. | :58:40. | |
food system as well. Consumers going into the shops and buying food in | :58:41. | :58:47. | |
the future, under the UK Government isolationist Brexit conditions, will | :58:48. | :58:51. | |
not know what the standards are of the food that has been produced, | :58:52. | :58:55. | |
whether it has been produced in Europe, the UK or other countries. | :58:56. | :59:01. | |
Producers may have to apply high standards to come into Europe. | :59:02. | :59:07. | |
Jackson Carlaw, you have handled this very... Your Government has | :59:08. | :59:13. | |
handled this very badly. You could have done much more to make clear to | :59:14. | :59:18. | |
people like Mike Russell, you could be in meetings with him now | :59:19. | :59:22. | |
discussing the kind of things he is being stonewalled on. I think the | :59:23. | :59:26. | |
first and most important process we have to go through is seeking to | :59:27. | :59:30. | |
discuss with London and the other devolved administrations what the | :59:31. | :59:35. | |
terms of our exit strategy will be. We have now done that and achieved | :59:36. | :59:40. | |
some agreement. There are areas where there are division. Both the | :59:41. | :59:45. | |
Welsh and Scottish Government say they have be ten years on respecting | :59:46. | :59:50. | |
the devolved parliaments of these countries in the process so far. | :59:51. | :59:55. | |
Would you like to call on the British Government to change that | :59:56. | :00:00. | |
attitude and be more sensitive? I would not accept that | :00:01. | :00:02. | |
characterisation of the depths of the discussions that have taken | :00:03. | :00:06. | |
place. I would suggest you may be helping your party and the British | :00:07. | :00:10. | |
Government more if you did go and suggest to them they were not so ten | :00:11. | :00:19. | |
years as they were. I sit on the European committee in the Scottish | :00:20. | :00:22. | |
parliament. We have published a report where we have said it would | :00:23. | :00:27. | |
be useful for the quality of dialogue to improve. We accept that | :00:28. | :00:31. | |
it can get quite heated. I do not accept that we do not have a | :00:32. | :00:35. | |
practical idea of how we now proceed. As you have your green tie | :00:36. | :00:41. | |
on to try and upstage Patrick Harvey,... I heard him saying it has | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
been something we have all been blessed to be part of. I do not | :00:48. | :00:51. | |
think that has been the view of anybody in this country. You were on | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
a different channel if you heard of that. We have to leave it there. | :00:55. | :00:56. | |
Thank you very much indeed. Given all this talk of Brexit | :00:57. | :00:58. | |
and possible independence referendums, you'd be forgiven | :00:59. | :01:00. | |
for overlooking the fact there are local council elections | :01:01. | :01:02. | |
taking place in a just few weeks. The parties will always tell | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
you they're fighting And while that may be true, | :01:06. | :01:07. | |
with the seismic political events taking place at a national | :01:08. | :01:11. | |
and international level right now, Graham Stewart's been | :01:12. | :01:13. | |
looking at the battle for Glasgow City Council, | :01:14. | :01:16. | |
and whether the independence debate might have a bearing | :01:17. | :01:18. | |
on who takes control. First, they were toppled at | :01:19. | :01:34. | |
Holyrood. Never again will we see the Labour Party assumed that it has | :01:35. | :01:41. | |
a divine right to rule Scotland. Then the SNP wiped them out at | :01:42. | :01:46. | |
Westminster. And in a couple of weeks' time, they could lose control | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
of Glasgow City Council. Named after one of Labour's most celebrated | :01:52. | :01:57. | |
post-war ministers, the former regional council headquarters once | :01:58. | :01:58. | |
post-war ministers, the former stood as an emblem of Libra's grip | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
over the city of Glasgow. But the party now finds its support is | :02:04. | :02:10. | |
crumbling. -- Labour's grip. Over the last couple of years, given the | :02:11. | :02:14. | |
state of the opinion polls, it is very difficult to see how the Labour | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
Party is going to retain control of Glasgow or north Lanarkshire, | :02:20. | :02:21. | |
Westonbirt injure and everything else that they are trying to hang | :02:22. | :02:27. | |
onto. -- West Dunbartonshire. And the SNP do well enough to get | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
overall control? That may or may not elude them. One former Labour leader | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
of Glasgow City Council says his party's problems were self | :02:38. | :02:41. | |
inflicted. Many of our reporters were left confused and then angry | :02:42. | :02:45. | |
after the independence referendum. The sort Labour teaming up with the | :02:46. | :02:53. | |
Tories. -- they sought. The icing on the cake when Alistair Darling got a | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
standing or region at the Conservative Party conference | :02:58. | :03:03. | |
drawled, on the back of the division of referendum, when Labour found | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
themselves at odds with most of the voters in Glasgow, it drove them to | :03:09. | :03:13. | |
the SNP. Have the events of 2014 now determined how people are likely to | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
vote in all elections, including cancel 1's? In Govanhill, the heart | :03:17. | :03:25. | |
of the first-Minister's Holyrood constituency, poverty and neglect | :03:26. | :03:28. | |
have taken their toll. Labour here is keen to contrast its focus on | :03:29. | :03:34. | |
local issues with what it says is the SNP's obsession with | :03:35. | :03:37. | |
independence. Despite the millions pounds of cuts, Glasgow City Council | :03:38. | :03:44. | |
has still delivered for constituents. 60 million has been | :03:45. | :03:47. | |
cut from the Government budget, which it has impacted in our | :03:48. | :03:54. | |
constituents. They are not interested in another referendum. | :03:55. | :03:56. | |
Challenging Labour is one of the first-Minister long time AIDS. | :03:57. | :04:05. | |
Independence is not mentioned once in her literature. -- horror aid. | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
People are interested in local issues. People are interested in who | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
is going to run the council. There have been a lot of elections, to a | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
certain extent, people may have a little bit of the election fatigue. | :04:20. | :04:23. | |
I think people are very interested in local issues in Glasgow. A recent | :04:24. | :04:29. | |
boost in support could see the Scottish Greens play a pivotal role | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
in some councils. They say they are managing to keep people engaged with | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
local issues. The last couple of weeks, people have brought up the | :04:39. | :04:43. | |
independence referendum but it has not been a huge issue on the | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
doorstep. All of our material is very focused on local issues. The | :04:49. | :04:53. | |
Green Party will back a yes vote in the next referendum but there is a | :04:54. | :04:57. | |
lot more that can be done at the local Government level that we are | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
focused on right now and we need to push for. The constitutional divide | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
continues to dominate discourse. Local candidates might be shy of | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
mentioning independence, can the constitution be separated from local | :05:12. | :05:23. | |
politics? In Govanhill, people are looking for hope and even greater | :05:24. | :05:26. | |
space. Many people see independence as the means to that end. Labour has | :05:27. | :05:29. | |
been squeezed out because it is no longer seen as the party that speaks | :05:30. | :05:31. | |
for Scotland. When you are seen as the party that speaks for Scotland, | :05:32. | :05:34. | |
in Govanhill or Glasgow, you are the party that speaks for social change. | :05:35. | :05:38. | |
There is another Scotland that takes a very different view. I have to | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
tell people that the SNP is not Scotland. In next month 's local | :05:43. | :05:47. | |
elections are split along constitutional lines, the Tories can | :05:48. | :05:54. | |
benefit. They lost almost in particular we have seen an increase | :05:55. | :05:59. | |
in support, so conservatives must fancy their chances and just thought | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
of making gains but overtaking Labour. They may not be running very | :06:04. | :06:06. | |
much in Scotland, perhaps they might harm onto south Ayrshire for example | :06:07. | :06:13. | |
but they could certainly end up with a much stronger position in Scottish | :06:14. | :06:16. | |
local government than they have enjoyed for a long time. We asked to | :06:17. | :06:22. | |
speak to the Conservative Dem cabinets in Glasgow but they were | :06:23. | :06:26. | |
unavailable. Ten candidates are standing in this ward and voting | :06:27. | :06:27. | |
takes place on the 4th of May. Now it's time to look back | :06:28. | :06:29. | |
at events and what's coming With me this week are | :06:30. | :06:32. | |
the Press Association's political editor Katrine Bussey | :06:33. | :06:40. | |
and the Sunday Herald's investigations editor | :06:41. | :06:42. | |
Paul Hutcheon. Katrine Bussey, first of all, the | :06:43. | :06:55. | |
independence referendum. Nicola Sturgeon has written a letter. What | :06:56. | :07:01. | |
happens next is to mark the next thing is Theresa May replies and we | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
know what that is what going to be. I'm not going to have a section 30 | :07:05. | :07:08. | |
on this, if you still feel strongly about this will have a chat. Nicola | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
Sturgeon has options but they are all difficult options at this stage. | :07:14. | :07:19. | |
His areas like do the SNP resigned in the government and try and force | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
another election or do they look at if they can force and legislative | :07:24. | :07:31. | |
consent motion for the Great Repeal Bill and see that as a way of | :07:32. | :07:34. | |
frustrating Brexit. There are options for the First Minister that | :07:35. | :07:40. | |
this stage none of them are easy. Options do you think they have, | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
Paul? Two years of sound and dreary and constitutional process is the | :07:47. | :07:49. | |
only option they have. As Katrina said I think forcing an election is | :07:50. | :07:57. | |
just not a runner. They could... The other day I interviewed Michael | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
Russell he said I'm not going to tell you. We've got great ideas that | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
I won't tell you them on television. You'd started to look interested | :08:06. | :08:08. | |
when I mentioned the idea of a legal challenge. That could be | :08:09. | :08:12. | |
something... You can legally challenge anything, I guess. Going | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
down the parliamentary routes to thwart and subvert the great repeal | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
act, the Great Repeal Bill I just think that... From their prison is | :08:22. | :08:30. | |
if you take an area like agriculture it is not obvious that it falls into | :08:31. | :08:34. | |
any simple Holyrood versus Westminster scenario. Even Michael | :08:35. | :08:40. | |
Russell was saying he needs something to be sorted out that the | :08:41. | :08:43. | |
UK level and he wants to be involved in talks doing that. It is uncharted | :08:44. | :08:51. | |
territory. The Tories have got an idea -- tin ear for Scotland. I | :08:52. | :08:58. | |
think that's true. They are so overwhelmed by the Brecht process, | :08:59. | :09:01. | |
they are flailing and struggling to get a grip on one side of that in | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
Scotland. We don't have to deal with this, we're short of staff, and | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
short of people who truly understand what's going on up here. A tin ear? | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
Do you think so? I'm not sure about a tin ear, but the Great Repeal Bill | :09:16. | :09:22. | |
will be a phenomenal amount of work. 12,000 pieces of legislation being | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
converted into UK legislation potentially. Casually into Scottish | :09:28. | :09:30. | |
legislation and when using the amount of pressure that is going to | :09:31. | :09:32. | |
put on Whitehall machinery perhaps it is no wonder that they say now is | :09:33. | :09:37. | |
not the time for a referendum. A lot of it is a European word processor, | :09:38. | :09:44. | |
replacing British Government with you. Or rather the other way round. | :09:45. | :09:50. | |
It might be cut and paste but how do you cut and paste Scotland into | :09:51. | :09:57. | |
there? If you like constitutional process, you will enjoy the next few | :09:58. | :10:00. | |
there? If you like constitutional years. We have a mark one now which | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
is over the independence referendum but there is going to be another one | :10:06. | :10:10. | |
which is what powers come to Scotland. Initially in the Brexit | :10:11. | :10:13. | |
campaign last year there was an assumption made that anything that | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
wasn't reserved with automatically just go back to Scotland and that | :10:17. | :10:22. | |
seems to have been shifted from that start and end the Tories, they now | :10:23. | :10:26. | |
tour for the need for mature conversations and the idea of UK | :10:27. | :10:30. | |
wide frameworks on fishing and accurate search so yes there are | :10:31. | :10:36. | |
discussions to be had there. The Spanish saying that Scotland could | :10:37. | :10:38. | |
join the EU if it becomes independent. Mike Russell might have | :10:39. | :10:43. | |
known that nobody else seems to. I don't seem to remember them saying | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
that so publicly or forthrightly in the run-up to the 2014 votes. I'm | :10:48. | :10:54. | |
surprised Mike Russell is downplaying this because in the 2014 | :10:55. | :11:00. | |
referendum, there was a good argument to cast doubt on | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
independent Scotland's ability to join the EU, suggesting that Madrid | :11:05. | :11:07. | |
would veto that. It seems like the argument there is dead in the water. | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
It seems like Spain would not veto a independent Scotland. I just wonder | :11:12. | :11:18. | |
if the Spanish government is feeling under pressure to look reasonable. | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
We have Gibraltar and now this. It seems like Spain is trying to poke | :11:24. | :11:29. | |
the UK in both eyes and it seems to be working. If there is a secular | :11:30. | :11:31. | |
and referendum there will be different arguments than the first | :11:32. | :11:40. | |
one. One of the big issues in Glasgow seems to be that while | :11:41. | :11:44. | |
Labour will lose Glasgow the SNP might not win it. I think that is | :11:45. | :11:51. | |
interesting, that we saw last year in the Holyrood elections these | :11:52. | :11:54. | |
conservatives do well in Glasgow and whether that could play again? I | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
think the Tories already have one clients -- counselling Glasgow city | :11:59. | :12:06. | |
and it might increase, maybe two MSPs on the regional list system, | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
which I don't know whether the party are necessarily confident about | :12:11. | :12:13. | |
doing before the vote. If that success, with Tories standing in the | :12:14. | :12:19. | |
opinion polls, suggesting they could do well, that could be what stops | :12:20. | :12:22. | |
the SNP from having overall control of Glasgow. What do you think Paul? | :12:23. | :12:29. | |
In terms of local government, looking at 2012 the SNP got 32%, | :12:30. | :12:36. | |
Labour 31, and Tories 13. Now the SNP are well over 40%, Tories up to | :12:37. | :12:44. | |
27, Labour at 14. A different world compares to 2012. We know that the | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
SNP and Tories will make games and Labour will have heavy losses. If | :12:49. | :12:51. | |
Labour get thumped do you think Kezia Dugdale will say look, I've | :12:52. | :12:59. | |
done my bit, but come on, reasonably you can't immediately going? There | :13:00. | :13:02. | |
is no doubt you would be under severe pressure. To come behind the | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
Tories in one election is pretty bad but to come behind them into | :13:07. | :13:12. | |
successive elections looks dreadful. It's not like there a queue of stars | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
waiting behind her. If not Kezia Dugdale then who else? And Keyser is | :13:18. | :13:24. | |
trying to provide strong leadership for Labour in Scotland and tries to | :13:25. | :13:28. | |
make the party more autonomous and as she is removed she could then see | :13:29. | :13:33. | |
a vacuum in Scottish Labour. Will she stay on? Assuming that rings go | :13:34. | :13:39. | |
as all the polls are suggesting? I think she would be the best option | :13:40. | :13:43. | |
for Labour if she stays on. We will have to leave it there. We are off | :13:44. | :13:49. | |
now for a few weeks. Marine Le Pen has her eyes | :13:50. | :13:55. | |
on the French presidency. As she tries to distance herself | :13:56. | :14:03. | |
from her party's controversial past, | :14:04. | :14:08. |