21/05/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland


21/05/2017

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:13.:00:16.

Labour attacks Conservative plans for social care and to means-test

:00:17.:00:19.

So can Jeremy Corbyn eat into the Tory lead

:00:20.:00:22.

Theresa May says her party's manifesto is all about fairness.

:00:23.:00:28.

We'll be speaking to a Conservative cabinet minister about the plans.

:00:29.:00:32.

The polls have always shown healthy leads for the Conservatives.

:00:33.:00:35.

But, now we've seen the manifestos, is Labour narrowing the gap?

:00:36.:00:45.

And on Sunday Politics Scotland: With two and a half weeks to go

:00:46.:00:47.

to the general election, I'll be asking the SNP's deputy

:00:48.:00:49.

leader Angus Robertson for an assessment of his party's

:00:50.:00:51.

And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

:00:52.:01:01.

panel in the business: Sam Coates, Isabel Oakeshott

:01:02.:01:03.

and Steve Richards - they'll be tweeting throughout

:01:04.:01:05.

the programme, and you can get involved by using

:01:06.:01:07.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says pensioners will be up to ?330 a year

:01:08.:01:16.

worse off under plans outlined in the Conservative manifesto.

:01:17.:01:28.

The Work Pensions Secretary Damian Green has said his party will not

:01:29.:01:33.

rethink their plans to fund social care in England. Under the plans in

:01:34.:01:38.

the Conservative manifesto, nobody with assets of less than ?100,000,

:01:39.:01:44.

would have to pay for care. Labour has attacked the proposal, and John

:01:45.:01:49.

McDonnell, Labour's Shadow Chancellor, said this morning that

:01:50.:01:52.

there needs to be more cross-party consensus.

:01:53.:01:56.

That's why we supported Dilnot, but we also supported

:01:57.:01:58.

Because we've got to have something sustainable over generations,

:01:59.:02:01.

so that's why we've said to the Conservative Party,

:02:02.:02:03.

Let's go back to that cross-party approach that actually

:02:04.:02:06.

I just feel we've all been let down by what's come

:02:07.:02:10.

Sam, is Labour beginning to get their argument across? What we had

:02:11.:02:20.

last week was bluntly what felt like not very Lynton Crosby approved

:02:21.:02:24.

Conservative manifesto. What I mean by that is that it looks like there

:02:25.:02:29.

are things that will cause political difficulties for the party over this

:02:30.:02:33.

campaign. I've been talking to MPs and ministers who acknowledge that

:02:34.:02:37.

the social care plan is coming up on the doorstep. It has cut through

:02:38.:02:44.

very quickly, and it is worrying and deterring some voters. Not just

:02:45.:02:47.

pensioners, that people who are looking to inherit in the future.

:02:48.:02:59.

They are all asking how much they could lose that they wouldn't have

:03:00.:03:01.

lost before. A difficult question for the party to answer, given that

:03:02.:03:04.

they don't want to give too much away now. Was this a mistake, or a

:03:05.:03:09.

sign of the Conservatives' confidence? It has the hallmarks of

:03:10.:03:16.

something that has been cobbled together in a very unnaturally short

:03:17.:03:20.

time frame for putting a manifesto together. We have had mixed messages

:03:21.:03:25.

from the Tory MPs who have been out on the airwaves this morning as to

:03:26.:03:29.

whether they will consult on it whether it is just a starting point.

:03:30.:03:34.

That said, there is still three weeks to go, and most of the Tory

:03:35.:03:40.

party this morning feel this is a little light turbulence rather than

:03:41.:03:43.

anything that leaves the destination of victory in doubt. It it flips the

:03:44.:03:47.

normal politics. The Tories are going to make people who have a

:03:48.:03:52.

reasonable amount of assets pay for their social care. What is wrong

:03:53.:03:58.

with that? First, total credit for them for not pretending that all

:03:59.:04:01.

this can be done by magic, which is what normally happens in an

:04:02.:04:06.

election. The party will say, we will review this for the 95th time

:04:07.:04:11.

in the following Parliament, so they have no mandate to do anything and

:04:12.:04:15.

so do not do anything. It is courageous to do it. It is

:04:16.:04:19.

electorally risky, for the reasons that you suggest, that they pass the

:04:20.:04:25.

target their own natural supporter. And there is a sense that this is

:04:26.:04:31.

rushed through, in the frenzy to get it done in time. I think the ending

:04:32.:04:37.

of the pooling of risk and putting the entire burden on in inverted

:04:38.:04:42.

commas the victim, because you cannot insure Fritz, is against the

:04:43.:04:50.

spirit of a lot of the rest of the manifesto, and will give them huge

:04:51.:04:54.

problems if they try to implement it in the next Parliament. Let's have a

:04:55.:05:03.

look at the polls. Nearly five weeks ago, on Tuesday the 18th of April,

:05:04.:05:07.

Theresa May called the election. At that point, this was the median

:05:08.:05:12.

average of the recent polls. The Conservatives had an 18 point lead

:05:13.:05:18.

over Labour on 25%. Ukip and the Liberal Democrats were both on 18%.

:05:19.:05:27.

A draft of Labour's manifesto was leaked to the press. In the

:05:28.:05:31.

intervening weeks, support for the Conservatives and Labour had

:05:32.:05:34.

increased, that it had decreased for the Lib Dems and Ukip. Last Tuesday

:05:35.:05:40.

came the launch of the official Labour manifesto. By that time,

:05:41.:05:46.

Labour support had gone up by another 2%. The Lib Dems and Ukip

:05:47.:05:52.

had slipped back slightly. Later in the week came the manifestos from

:05:53.:05:56.

the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. This morning, for more polls. This

:05:57.:06:01.

is how the parties currently stand on average. Labour are now on 34%,

:06:02.:06:08.

up 4% since the launch of their manifesto. The Conservatives are

:06:09.:06:12.

down two points since last Tuesday. Ukip and the Lib Dems are both

:06:13.:06:19.

unchanged on 8% and 5%. You can find this poll tracker on the BBC

:06:20.:06:24.

website, see how it was calculated, and see the results of national

:06:25.:06:29.

polls over the last two years. So Isabel, is this the Tories' wobbly

:06:30.:06:33.

weekend or the start of the narrowing? This is still an

:06:34.:06:38.

extremely healthy lead for the Tories. At the start of this

:06:39.:06:44.

campaign, most commentators expected to things to happen. First, the Lib

:06:45.:06:50.

Dems would have a significant surge. That hasn't happened. Second, Labour

:06:51.:06:55.

would crash and plummet. Instead they are in the health of the low

:06:56.:07:00.

30s. I wonder if that tells you something about the tribal nature of

:07:01.:07:07.

the Labour vote, and the continuing problems with the Tory brand. I

:07:08.:07:11.

would say that a lot of Tory MPs wouldn't be too unhappy if Labour's

:07:12.:07:16.

result isn't quite as bad as has been anticipated. They don't want

:07:17.:07:23.

Corbyn to go anywhere. If the latest polls were to be the result on June

:07:24.:07:29.

the 8th, Mr Corbyn may not be in a rush to go anywhere. I still think

:07:30.:07:34.

it depends on the number of seats. If there is a landslide win, I

:07:35.:07:39.

think, one way or another, he will not stay. If it is much narrower, he

:07:40.:07:45.

has grounds for arguing he has done better than anticipated. The polls

:07:46.:07:50.

are very interesting. People compare this with 83. In 83, the Tory lead

:07:51.:07:56.

widened consistently throughout the campaign. There was the SDP -

:07:57.:08:08.

Liberal Alliance doing well in the polls. Here, the Lib Dems don't seem

:08:09.:08:11.

to be doing that. So the parallels with 83 don't really stack up. But

:08:12.:08:13.

let's see what happens. Still early days for the a lot of people are

:08:14.:08:17.

saying this is the result of the social care policy. We don't really

:08:18.:08:21.

know that. How do you beat them? In the last week or so, there's been

:08:22.:08:25.

the decision by some to hold their nose and vote Labour, who haven't

:08:26.:08:30.

done so before. Probably the biggest thing in this election is how the

:08:31.:08:35.

Right has reunited behind Theresa May. That figure for Ukip is

:08:36.:08:42.

incredibly small. She has brought those Ukip voters behind her, and

:08:43.:08:47.

that could be the decisive factor in many seats, rather than the Labour

:08:48.:08:51.

share of the boat picking up a bit or down a bit, depending on how

:08:52.:08:56.

turbulent the Tory manifesto makes it. Thank you for that.

:08:57.:08:59.

We've finally got our hands on the manifestos of the two main

:09:00.:09:02.

parties and, for once, voters can hardly complain that

:09:03.:09:04.

So, just how big is the choice on offer to the public?

:09:05.:09:09.

Since the Liberal Democrats and SNP have ruled out

:09:10.:09:10.

coalitions after June 8th, Adam Fleming compares the Labour

:09:11.:09:13.

Welcome to the BBC's election centre.

:09:14.:09:16.

Four minutes from now, when Big Ben strikes 10.00,

:09:17.:09:19.

we can legally reveal the contents of this, our exit poll.

:09:20.:09:23.

18 days to go, and the BBC's election night studio

:09:24.:09:26.

This is where David Dimbleby will sit, although there is no chair yet.

:09:27.:09:35.

The parties' policies are now the finished product.

:09:36.:09:39.

In Bradford, Jeremy Corbyn vowed a bigger state,

:09:40.:09:41.

the end of austerity, no more tuition fees.

:09:42.:09:44.

The Tory campaign, by contrast, is built on one word - fear.

:09:45.:09:53.

Down the road in Halifax, Theresa May kept a promise to get

:09:54.:10:00.

immigration down to the tens of thousands, and talked

:10:01.:10:03.

of leadership and tough choices in uncertain times.

:10:04.:10:07.

Strengthen my hand as I fight for Britain, and stand with me

:10:08.:10:13.

And, with confidence in ourselves and a unity

:10:14.:10:19.

of purpose in our country, let us go forward together.

:10:20.:10:26.

Let's look at the Labour and Conservative

:10:27.:10:29.

On tax, Labour would introduce a 50p rate for top earners.

:10:30.:10:35.

The Conservatives ditched their triple lock, giving them

:10:36.:10:59.

freedom to put up income tax and national insurance,

:11:00.:11:01.

although they want to keep the overall tax burden the same.

:11:02.:11:04.

Labour offered a major overhaul of the country's wiring,

:11:05.:11:06.

with a pledge to renationalise infrastructure, like power,

:11:07.:11:08.

The Conservatives said that would cost a fortune,

:11:09.:11:11.

but provided few details for the cost of their policies.

:11:12.:11:13.

Labour have simply become a shambles, and, as yesterday's

:11:14.:11:16.

manifesto showed, their numbers simply do not add up.

:11:17.:11:18.

What have they got planned for health and social care?

:11:19.:11:20.

The Conservatives offered more cash for the NHS,

:11:21.:11:24.

reaching an extra ?8 billion a year by the end of the parliament.

:11:25.:11:27.

Labour promised an extra ?30 billion over the course of the same period,

:11:28.:11:31.

plus free hospital parking and more pay for staff.

:11:32.:11:37.

The Conservatives would increase the value of assets you could

:11:38.:11:44.

protect from the cost of social care to ?100,000, but your home would be

:11:45.:11:48.

added to the assessment of your wealth,

:11:49.:11:49.

There was a focus on one group of voters in particular

:11:50.:11:54.

Labour would keep the triple lock, which guarantees that pensions go up

:11:55.:11:59.

The Tories would keep the increase in line

:12:00.:12:05.

with inflation or earnings, a double lock.

:12:06.:12:08.

The Conservatives would end of winter fuel payments

:12:09.:12:11.

for the richest, although we don't know exactly who that would be,

:12:12.:12:14.

This is a savage attack on vulnerable pensioners,

:12:15.:12:23.

particularly those who are just about managing.

:12:24.:12:27.

It is disgraceful, and we are calling upon the Conservative Party

:12:28.:12:30.

When it comes to leaving the European Union, Labour say

:12:31.:12:37.

they'd sweep away the government's negotiating strategy,

:12:38.:12:40.

secure a better deal and straightaway guaranteed the rights

:12:41.:12:43.

The Tories say a big majority would remove political uncertainty

:12:44.:12:49.

Jeremy Vine's due here in two and a half weeks.

:12:50.:13:01.

I'm joined now by David Gauke, who is Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

:13:02.:13:07.

Welcome back to the programme. The Tories once promised a cap on social

:13:08.:13:14.

care costs. Why have you abandoned that? We've looked at it, and there

:13:15.:13:21.

are couple of proposals with the Dilnot proposal. Much of the benefit

:13:22.:13:26.

would go to those inheriting larger estates. The second point was it was

:13:27.:13:31.

hoped that a cap would stimulate the larger insurance products that would

:13:32.:13:36.

fill the gap, but there is no sign that those products are emerging.

:13:37.:13:42.

Without a cap, you will not get one. We have come forward with a new

:13:43.:13:46.

proposal which we think is fairer, provide more money for social care,

:13:47.:13:50.

which is very important and is one of the big issues we face as a

:13:51.:13:56.

country. It is right that we face those big issues. Social care is

:13:57.:14:01.

one, getting a good Brexit deal is another. This demonstrates that

:14:02.:14:08.

Theresa May has an ambition to lead a government that addresses those

:14:09.:14:11.

big long-term issues. Looking at social care. If you have assets,

:14:12.:14:17.

including your home, of over ?100,000, you have to pay for all

:14:18.:14:21.

your social care costs. Is that fair? It is right that for the

:14:22.:14:25.

services that are provided to you, that that is paid out of your

:14:26.:14:31.

assets, subject to two really important qualifications. First, you

:14:32.:14:35.

shouldn't have your entire estate wiped out. At the moment, if you are

:14:36.:14:42.

in residential care, it can be wiped out ?223,000. If you are in

:14:43.:14:47.

domiciliary care, it can be out to ?23,000, plus you're domiciliary.

:14:48.:14:54.

Nobody should be forced to sell their house in their lifetime if

:14:55.:14:58.

they or their spouse needs long-term care. Again, we have protected that

:14:59.:15:00.

in the proposals we set out. But the state will basically take a

:15:01.:15:11.

chunk of your house when you die and they sell. In an essence it is a

:15:12.:15:15.

stealth inheritance tax on everything above ?100,000. But we

:15:16.:15:19.

have those two important protections. I am including that. It

:15:20.:15:23.

is a stealth inheritance tax. We have to face up to the fact that

:15:24.:15:28.

there are significant costs that we face as a country in terms of health

:15:29.:15:32.

and social careful. Traditionally, politicians don't address those

:15:33.:15:37.

issues, particularly during election campaigns. I think it is too Theresa

:15:38.:15:42.

May's credit that we are being straightforward with the British

:15:43.:15:45.

people and saying that we face this long-term challenge. Our manifesto

:15:46.:15:48.

was about the big challenges that we face, one of which was

:15:49.:15:53.

intergenerational fairness and one of which was delivering a strong

:15:54.:15:57.

economy and making sure that we can do that. But in the end, someone is

:15:58.:16:03.

going to have to pay for this. It is going to have to be a balance

:16:04.:16:07.

between the general taxpayer and those receiving the services. We

:16:08.:16:09.

think we have struck the right balance with this proposal. But it

:16:10.:16:13.

is entirely on the individual. People watching this programme, if

:16:14.:16:17.

they have a fair amount of assets, not massive, including the home,

:16:18.:16:24.

they will need to pay for everything themselves until their assets are

:16:25.:16:28.

reduced to ?100,000. It is not a balance, you're putting everything

:16:29.:16:33.

on the original two individual. At the moment, for those in residential

:16:34.:16:39.

care, they have to pay everything until 20 3000. -- everything on the

:16:40.:16:44.

individual. But now they will face more. Those in individual care are

:16:45.:16:48.

seeing their protection going up by four times as much, so that is

:16:49.:16:51.

eliminating unfairness. Why should those in residential care be in a

:16:52.:16:55.

worse position than those receiving domiciliary care? But as I say, that

:16:56.:17:01.

money has to come from somewhere and we are sitting at a proper plan for

:17:02.:17:04.

it. While also made the point that we are more likely to be able to

:17:05.:17:08.

have a properly functioning social care market if we have a strong

:17:09.:17:12.

economy, and to have a strong economy we need to deliver a good

:17:13.:17:15.

deal on Brexit and I think Theresa May is capable of doing that. You

:17:16.:17:20.

have said that before. But if you have a heart attack in old age, the

:17:21.:17:25.

NHS will take care of you. If you have dementia, you now have to pay

:17:26.:17:29.

for the care of yourself. Is that they are? It is already the case

:17:30.:17:33.

that if you have long-term care costs come up as I say, if you are

:17:34.:17:37.

in residential care you pay for all of it until the last ?23,000, but if

:17:38.:17:42.

you are in domiciliary care, excluding your housing assets, but

:17:43.:17:46.

all of your other assets get used up until you are down to ?23,000 a

:17:47.:17:52.

year. And I think it is right at this point that a party that aspires

:17:53.:17:59.

to run this country for the long-term, to address the long-term

:18:00.:18:03.

challenges we have is a country, for us to be clear that we need to

:18:04.:18:07.

deliver this. Because if it is not paid for it this way, if it goes and

:18:08.:18:14.

falls on the general taxpayer, the people who feel hard pressed by the

:18:15.:18:18.

amount of income tax and VAT they pay, frankly we have to say to them,

:18:19.:18:22.

those taxes will go up if we do not address it. But they might go up

:18:23.:18:26.

anyway. The average house price in your part of the country is just shy

:18:27.:18:32.

of ?430,000, so if you told your own constituents that they might have to

:18:33.:18:36.

spend ?300,000 of their assets on social care before the state steps

:18:37.:18:41.

in to help...? As I said earlier, nobody will be forced to pay during

:18:42.:18:46.

their lifetime. Nobody will be forced to sell their houses. We are

:18:47.:18:52.

providing that protection because of the third premium. Which makes it a

:18:53.:18:57.

kind of death tax, doesn't it? Which is what you use to rail against.

:18:58.:19:02.

What it is people paying for the services they have paid out of their

:19:03.:19:07.

assets. But with that very important protection that nobody is going to

:19:08.:19:10.

be wiped out in the way that has happened up until now, down to the

:19:11.:19:15.

last three years. But when Labour propose this, George Osborne called

:19:16.:19:19.

it a death tax and you are now proposing a stealth death tax

:19:20.:19:23.

inheritance tax. Labour's proposals were very different. It is the same

:19:24.:19:29.

effect. Labour's were hitting everyone with an inheritance tax. We

:19:30.:19:36.

are saying that there are -- that there is a state contribution but

:19:37.:19:39.

the public receiving the services will have to pay for it out of

:19:40.:19:45.

assets, which have grown substantially. And which they might

:19:46.:19:49.

now lose to social care. But I would say that people in Hertfordshire pay

:19:50.:19:53.

a lot in income tracks, national insurance and VAT, and this is my

:19:54.:19:58.

bet is going to have to come from somewhere. Well, they are now going

:19:59.:20:02.

to pay a lot of tax and pay for social care. Turning to immigration,

:20:03.:20:07.

you promised to get net migration down to 100,020 ten. You failed. You

:20:08.:20:12.

promised again in 2015 and you are feeling again. Why should voters

:20:13.:20:17.

trust you a third time? It is very clear that only the Conservative

:20:18.:20:21.

Party has an ambition to control immigration and to bring it down. An

:20:22.:20:26.

ambition you have failed to deliver. There are, of course, factors that

:20:27.:20:30.

come into play. For example a couple of years ago we were going through a

:20:31.:20:34.

period when the UK was creating huge numbers of jobs but none of our

:20:35.:20:37.

European neighbours were doing anything like it. Not surprisingly,

:20:38.:20:40.

that feeds through into the immigration numbers that we see. But

:20:41.:20:47.

it is right that we have that ambition because I do not believe it

:20:48.:20:53.

is sustainable to have hundreds of thousands net migration, you're

:20:54.:20:56.

after year after year, and only Theresa May of the Conservative

:20:57.:21:00.

Party is willing to address that. It has gone from being a target to an

:21:01.:21:04.

ambition, and I am pretty sure in a couple of years it will become an

:21:05.:21:08.

untimed aspiration. Is net migration now higher or lower than when you

:21:09.:21:14.

came to power in 2010? I think it is higher at the moment. Let's look at

:21:15.:21:19.

the figures. And there they are. You are right, it is higher, so after

:21:20.:21:24.

six years in power, promising to get it down to 100,000, it is higher. So

:21:25.:21:31.

if that is an ambition and you have not succeeded. We have to accept

:21:32.:21:35.

that there are a number of factors. It continues to be the case that the

:21:36.:21:40.

UK economy is growing and creating a lot of jobs, which is undoubtedly

:21:41.:21:44.

drawing people. But you made the promise on the basis that would not

:21:45.:21:48.

happen? We are certainly outperforming other countries in a

:21:49.:21:50.

way that we could not have predicted in 2010. That is one of the factors.

:21:51.:21:56.

But if you look at a lot of the steps that we have taken over the

:21:57.:21:58.

course of the last seven years, dealing with bogus students, for

:21:59.:22:05.

example, tightening up a lot of the rules. You can say all that but it

:22:06.:22:08.

has made no difference to the headline figure. Clearly it would

:22:09.:22:11.

have gone up by much more and we not taken the steps. But as I say, we

:22:12.:22:17.

cannot for ever, it seems to me, have net migration numbers in the

:22:18.:22:22.

hundreds of thousands. If we get that good Brexit deal, one of the

:22:23.:22:26.

things we can do is tighten up in terms of access here. You say that

:22:27.:22:31.

but you have always had control of non-EU migration. You cannot blame

:22:32.:22:36.

the EU for that. You control immigration from outside the EU.

:22:37.:22:39.

Have you ever managed to get even that below 100,000? Well, no doubt

:22:40.:22:46.

you will present the numbers now. You haven't. You have got down a bit

:22:47.:22:51.

from 2010, I will give you that, but even non-EU migration is still a lot

:22:52.:22:56.

more than 100000 and that is the thing you control. It is 164,000 on

:22:57.:23:00.

the latest figures. There is no point in saying to the voters that

:23:01.:23:04.

when we get control of the EU migration you will get it down when

:23:05.:23:07.

the bit you have control over, you have failed to get that down into

:23:08.:23:12.

the tens of thousands. The general trend has gone up. Non-EU migration

:23:13.:23:17.

we have brought down over the last few years. Not by much, not by

:23:18.:23:22.

anywhere near your 100,000 target. But we clearly have more tools

:23:23.:23:27.

available to us, following Brexit. At this rate it will be around 2030

:23:28.:23:32.

before you get non-EU migration down to 100,000. We clearly have more

:23:33.:23:36.

tools available to us and I return to the point I made. In the last six

:23:37.:23:40.

or seven years, particularly the last four or five, we have seen the

:23:41.:23:43.

UK jobs market growing substantially. It is extraordinary

:23:44.:23:48.

how many more jobs we have. So you'll only promised the migration

:23:49.:23:51.

target because you did not think you were going to run the economy well?

:23:52.:23:55.

That is what you are telling me. I don't think anyone expected us to

:23:56.:23:58.

create quite a number of jobs that we have done over the last six or

:23:59.:24:03.

seven years. At the time when other European countries have not been.

:24:04.:24:06.

George Osborne says your target is economically illiterate. I disagree

:24:07.:24:11.

with George on that. He is my old boss but I disagree with him on that

:24:12.:24:18.

point. And the reason I say that is looking at the economics and the

:24:19.:24:22.

wider social impact, I don't think it is sustainable for us to have

:24:23.:24:27.

hundreds of thousands, year after year after year. Let me ask you one

:24:28.:24:30.

other thing because you are the chief secretary. Your promising that

:24:31.:24:34.

spending on health will be ?8 billion higher in five use time than

:24:35.:24:39.

it is now. How do you pay for that? From a strong economy, two years ago

:24:40.:24:42.

we had a similar conversation because at that point we said that

:24:43.:24:48.

we would increase spending by ?8 billion. And we are more than on

:24:49.:24:52.

track to deliver it, because it is a priority area for us. Where will the

:24:53.:24:57.

money come from? It will be a priority area for us. We will find

:24:58.:25:01.

the money. So you have not been able to show us a revenue line where this

:25:02.:25:07.

?8 billion will come from. We have a record of making promises to spend

:25:08.:25:11.

more on the NHS and delivering. One thing I would say is that the only

:25:12.:25:15.

way you can spend more money on the NHS is if you have a strong economy,

:25:16.:25:20.

and the biggest risk... But that is true of anything. I am trying to

:25:21.:25:24.

find out where the ?8 billion come from, where will it come from? Know

:25:25.:25:28.

you were saying that perhaps you might increase taxes, ticking off

:25:29.:25:32.

the lock, so people are right to be suspicious. But you will not tell us

:25:33.:25:39.

where the ?8 billion will come from. Andrew, a strong economy is key to

:25:40.:25:43.

delivering more NHS money. That does not tell us where the money is

:25:44.:25:47.

coming from. The biggest risk to a strong economy would be a bad

:25:48.:25:50.

Brexit, which Jeremy Corbyn would deliver. And we have a record of

:25:51.:25:55.

putting more money into the NHS. I think that past performance we can

:25:56.:25:58.

take forward. Thank you for joining us.

:25:59.:26:00.

So, the Conservatives have been taking a bit of flak

:26:01.:26:03.

But Conservative big guns have been out and about this morning taking

:26:04.:26:07.

Here's Boris Johnson on ITV's Peston programme earlier today:

:26:08.:26:10.

What we're trying to do is to address what I think

:26:11.:26:15.

everybody, all serious demographers acknowledge will be the massive

:26:16.:26:17.

problem of the cost of social care long-term.

:26:18.:26:21.

This is a responsible, grown-up, conservative approach,

:26:22.:26:25.

trying to deal with a long-term problem in a way that is equitable,

:26:26.:26:28.

allows people to pass on a very substantial sum,

:26:29.:26:30.

still, to their kids, and takes away the fear

:26:31.:26:32.

Joining me now from Liverpool is Labour's Shadow Chief Secretary

:26:33.:26:39.

Petered out, welcome to the programme. Let's start with social

:26:40.:26:51.

care. The Tories are saying that if you have ?100,000 or more in assets,

:26:52.:26:54.

you should pay for your own social care. What is wrong with that? Well,

:26:55.:27:00.

I think the issue at the end of the day is the question of fairness. Is

:27:01.:27:04.

it fair? And what we're trying to do is to get to a situation where we

:27:05.:27:09.

have, for example, the Dilnot report, which identified that you

:27:10.:27:14.

actually have cap on your spending on social care. We are trying to get

:27:15.:27:17.

to a position where it is a reasonable and fair approach to

:27:18.:27:24.

expenditure. But you will know that a lot of people, particularly in the

:27:25.:27:28.

south of country, London and the south-east, and the adjacent areas

:27:29.:27:33.

around it, they have benefited from huge house price inflation. They

:27:34.:27:36.

have seen their homes go up in value, if and when they sell, they

:27:37.:27:40.

are not taxed on that increase. Why should these people not pay for

:27:41.:27:47.

their own social care if they have the assets to do so? They will be

:27:48.:27:51.

paying for some of their social care but you cannot take social care and

:27:52.:27:55.

health care separately. It has to be an integrated approach. So for

:27:56.:27:58.

example if you do have dementia, you're more likely to be in an

:27:59.:28:02.

elderly person's home for longer and you most probably have been in care

:28:03.:28:06.

for a longer period of time. On the other hand, you might have, if you

:28:07.:28:10.

have had a stroke, there may be continuing care needs paid for by

:28:11.:28:14.

the NHS. So at the end of the date it is trying to get a reasonable

:28:15.:28:17.

balance and just to pluck a figure of ?100,000 out of thin air is not

:28:18.:28:26.

sensible. You will have heard me say about David Gold that the house

:28:27.:28:31.

prices in his area, about 450,000 or so, not quite that, and that people

:28:32.:28:35.

may have to spend quite a lot of that on social care to get down to

:28:36.:28:41.

?100,000. But in your area, the average house price is only

:28:42.:28:45.

?149,000, so your people would not have to pay anything like as much

:28:46.:28:51.

before they hit the ?100,000 minimum. I hesitate to say that but

:28:52.:28:56.

is that not almost a socialist approach to social care that if you

:28:57.:29:00.

are in the affluent Home Counties with a big asset, you pay more, and

:29:01.:29:04.

if you are in an area that is not so affluent and your house is not worth

:29:05.:29:08.

very much, you pay a lot less. What is wrong with that principle? I

:29:09.:29:13.

think the problem I am trying to get to is this issue about equity across

:29:14.:29:17.

the piece. At the end of the day, what we want is a system whereby it

:29:18.:29:23.

is capped at a particular level, and the Dilnot report, after much

:29:24.:29:26.

examination, said we should have a cap on care costs at ?72,000. The

:29:27.:29:31.

Conservatives decided to ditch that and come up with another policy

:29:32.:29:34.

which by all accounts seems to be even more Draconian. At the end of

:29:35.:29:39.

the day it is trying to get social care and an NHS care in a much more

:29:40.:29:48.

fluid way. We had offered the Conservatives to have a bipartisan

:29:49.:29:51.

approach to this. David just said that this is a long term. You do not

:29:52.:29:55.

pick a figure out of thin air and use that as a long-term strategy.

:29:56.:30:01.

The Conservatives are now saying they will increase health spending

:30:02.:30:06.

over the next five years in real terms. You will increase health

:30:07.:30:11.

spending. In what way is your approach to health spending better

:30:12.:30:17.

than the Tories' now? We are contributing an extra 7.2 billion to

:30:18.:30:22.

the NHS and social care over the next few years. But you just don't

:30:23.:30:27.

put money into the NHS or social care. It has to be an integrated

:30:28.:30:32.

approach to social and health care. What we've got is just more of the

:30:33.:30:36.

same. What we don't want to do is just say, we ring-fenced an out for

:30:37.:30:42.

here or there. What you have to do is try to get that... Let me ask you

:30:43.:30:50.

again. In terms of the amount of resource that is going to be devoted

:30:51.:30:54.

in the next five years, and resource does matter for the NHS, in what way

:30:55.:31:00.

are your plans different now from the Conservative plans? The key is

:31:01.:31:04.

how you use that resource. By just putting money in, you've got to say,

:31:05.:31:10.

if we are going to put that money on, how do we use it? As somebody

:31:11.:31:16.

who has worked in social care for 40 years, you have to have a different

:31:17.:31:20.

approach to how you use that money. The money we are putting in, 7.7,

:31:21.:31:26.

may be similar in cash terms to what the Tories claim they are putting

:31:27.:31:30.

in, but it's not how much you put in per se, it is how you use it. You

:31:31.:31:43.

are going to get rid of car parking charges in hospital, and you are

:31:44.:31:47.

going to increase pay by taking the cap on pay off. So it doesn't

:31:48.:31:49.

necessarily follow that the money, under your way of doing it, will

:31:50.:31:52.

follow the front line. What you need in the NHS is a system that is

:31:53.:31:56.

capable of dealing with the patience you have. What we have now is on at

:31:57.:32:03.

five Asian of the NHS. Staff leaving, not being paid properly. So

:32:04.:32:10.

pay and the NHS go hand in hand. Let's move onto another area of

:32:11.:32:17.

policy where there is some confusion. Who speaks for the Labour

:32:18.:32:22.

Party on nuclear weapons? Is it Emily Thornbury, or Nia Griffith,

:32:23.:32:28.

defence spokesperson? The Labour manifesto. It is clear. We are

:32:29.:32:34.

committed to the nuclear deterrent, and that is the definitive... Is it?

:32:35.:32:43.

Emily Thornbury said that Trident could be scrapped in the defence

:32:44.:32:48.

review you would have immediately after taking power. On LBC on Friday

:32:49.:32:53.

night. She didn't, actually. I listened to that. What she actually

:32:54.:32:59.

said is, as part of a Labour government coming in, a new

:33:00.:33:03.

government, there is always a defence review. But not the concept

:33:04.:33:08.

of Trident in its substance. She said there would be a review in

:33:09.:33:15.

terms of, and this is in our manifesto. When you reduce

:33:16.:33:19.

something, you review how it is operated. The review could scrap

:33:20.:33:25.

Trident. It won't scrap Trident. The review is in the context of how you

:33:26.:33:30.

protect it from cyber attacks. This will issue was seized upon that she

:33:31.:33:36.

was saying that we would have another review of Trident or Labour

:33:37.:33:41.

would ditch it. That is nonsense. You will have seen some reports that

:33:42.:33:48.

MI5 opened a file on Jeremy Corbyn in the early 90s because of his

:33:49.:33:52.

links to Irish republicanism. This has caused some people, his links to

:33:53.:34:01.

the IRA and Sinn Fein, it has caused some concern. Could you just listen

:34:02.:34:05.

to this clip and react. Do you condemn what the IRA did? I condemn

:34:06.:34:14.

all bombing. But do you condemn what the IRA did? I condemn what was done

:34:15.:34:18.

with the British Army as well as both sides as well. What happened in

:34:19.:34:23.

Derry in 1972 was pretty devastating as well. Do you distinguish between

:34:24.:34:30.

state forces, what the British Army did and the IRA? Well, in a sense,

:34:31.:34:36.

the treatment of IRA prisoners which made them into virtual political

:34:37.:34:41.

prisoners suggested that the British government and the state saw some

:34:42.:34:46.

kind of almost equivalent in it. My point is that the whole violence if

:34:47.:34:53.

you was terrible, was appalling, and came out of a process that had been

:34:54.:34:59.

allowed to fester in Northern Ireland for a very long time. That

:35:00.:35:05.

was from about two years ago. Can you explain why the Leader of the

:35:06.:35:09.

Labour Party, Her Majesty 's opposition, the man who would be our

:35:10.:35:13.

next Prime Minister, finds it so hard to condemn IRA arming? I think

:35:14.:35:20.

it has to be within the context that Jeremy Corbyn for many years trying

:35:21.:35:23.

to move the peace protest... Process along. So why wouldn't you condemn

:35:24.:35:32.

IRA bombing? Again, that was an issue, a traumatic event in Irish -

:35:33.:35:39.

British relations that went on for 30 years. It is a complicated

:35:40.:35:44.

matter. Bombing is not that complicated. If you are a man of

:35:45.:35:50.

peace, surely you would condemn the bomb and the bullet? Let me say

:35:51.:35:54.

this, I condemn the bomb and the bullet. Why can't your leader? You

:35:55.:36:00.

would have to ask Jeremy Corbyn, but that is in the context of what he

:36:01.:36:05.

was trying to do over a 25 year period to move the priest process

:36:06.:36:07.

along. Thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35,

:36:08.:36:10.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. Good morning and welcome

:36:11.:36:18.

to Sunday Politics Scotland. to the growing pile of manifestos,

:36:19.:36:21.

I'll ask the party's deputy leader, Angus Robertson, whether his party

:36:22.:36:30.

has any fresh ideas. And whether they're really committed

:36:31.:36:33.

to another independence referendum. And a little local difficulty

:36:34.:36:37.

or a growing headache? We'll talk to Scottish Labour's

:36:38.:36:40.

Deputy Leader about why all Aberdeen's Labour councillors

:36:41.:36:42.

have been suspended from the party. Now, the SNP were the overwhelmingly

:36:43.:36:48.

dominant party in Scotland at the last general election -

:36:49.:36:52.

and they'll be hoping things But they are facing challenges -

:36:53.:36:54.

over their track record in government and over

:36:55.:37:00.

their plans to hold another Well, joining me now is the SNP's

:37:01.:37:02.

Deputy Leader, Angus Robertson. We are tonight different positions

:37:03.:37:23.

on an independence referendum from Nicola Sturgeon this week. In an

:37:24.:37:26.

interview with Gary Robison, she said it was a question of if not

:37:27.:37:33.

when. Yesterday, she'd said when not death. Are you committed to holding

:37:34.:37:41.

a referendum on independence? Well, firstly that is a

:37:42.:37:44.

mischaracterisation of what the First Minister said. The future of

:37:45.:37:48.

Scotland should lie in Scotland's Hans. I think it is important we put

:37:49.:37:53.

on record this is an issue that was already determined in the last

:37:54.:37:59.

Scottish Parliament election. The party that went to the country with

:38:00.:38:08.

a choice, the SNP had this in their manifesto. The opposing parties lost

:38:09.:38:13.

the election. The public has already given a mandate to the Scottish

:38:14.:38:19.

Government. Since then, the Scottish Parliament has endorsed that

:38:20.:38:25.

position. It is... Of course there will be a referendum because the

:38:26.:38:31.

people have determined we need a choice on our future. We should

:38:32.:38:34.

never lose sight of the fact that everybody else in Europe is going to

:38:35.:38:42.

have a say about our future. If the other 27 member states are going to

:38:43.:38:49.

be able to determine the future of Scotland in Europe, it seems

:38:50.:38:53.

unimaginable that we in this country cannot decide on our future. I

:38:54.:38:58.

respect the democratic institutions of Scotland. It is a shame the

:38:59.:39:03.

Tories do not appear to. Just to be clear, you have already asked for a

:39:04.:39:08.

section 30 order which would allow the Scottish Parliament to organise

:39:09.:39:11.

another referendum. But you don't just want the power to organise one

:39:12.:39:18.

if you decide to do it, you actually want to hold one some time in late

:39:19.:39:28.

2018 or 2019? Yes. I should apologise to the viewers as there is

:39:29.:39:33.

a dreadful delay in the satellite link. Which is why you appear not to

:39:34.:39:36.

be answering the questions, but... I am apologising

:39:37.:39:56.

to the viewers for the delay on the satellite link. The good news is

:39:57.:40:02.

from where I am standing, I don't have a delay. If the Conservatives

:40:03.:40:10.

win this election, they have said they will not be another referendum

:40:11.:40:19.

unless firstly there the argue Brexit talks should be finished.

:40:20.:40:27.

They have now added another condition that there should be

:40:28.:40:31.

popular support for it. What options do you have to do anything about it?

:40:32.:40:44.

It is true that the Tories are ahead in England. That is a strong reason

:40:45.:40:49.

for everyone in Scotland to ensure there is a strong voice representing

:40:50.:40:53.

Scotland's interests and Westminster. I haven't seen a single

:40:54.:41:00.

opinion poll that suggests Scotland will win in Scotland. If the people

:41:01.:41:06.

in Scotland determine they want SNP representatives at Westminster, we

:41:07.:41:09.

will all have been sent there to stand up for the rights of the

:41:10.:41:14.

Scottish Parliament, of the Scottish Government, and the mandate the

:41:15.:41:18.

people of Scotland gave in the last Scottish election. Or we remain a

:41:19.:41:20.

situation where the Tories are seeing the people of Scotland will

:41:21.:41:24.

not be able to determine their own future because of what an opinion

:41:25.:41:29.

poll? The last time I looked, in normal democracies, if political

:41:30.:41:33.

parties win elections and there men if fast stock has been endorsed by

:41:34.:41:38.

the people, that is going to be respected. I think the people of

:41:39.:41:42.

Scotland and their views on the subject and everything else should

:41:43.:41:46.

be respected. Which is why I think it is unimaginable if there is a UK

:41:47.:41:51.

Tory party victory over the rest of the UK but the SNP is returned in

:41:52.:41:56.

Scotland, they can continuously turned their backs on the

:41:57.:42:03.

democratically expressed wishes of the people of this part of the

:42:04.:42:10.

United Kingdom. If they do do what they are saying they will do, which

:42:11.:42:19.

is simply say no for a period which could go 145, six, seven, eight

:42:20.:42:23.

years, you say it is unimaginable, but if that is what they do, is

:42:24.:42:30.

there anything realistically other than complaining that you can do?

:42:31.:42:35.

The first thing we have to make sure is that Scotland's constituencies

:42:36.:42:40.

represented by SNP parliamentarians who will stand up for Scotland's

:42:41.:42:46.

interests. As opposed to Scottish Tories who want. Or in the case of

:42:47.:42:54.

this constituency, won't even turn up to important debate because they

:42:55.:43:01.

are refereeing football matches. We might hear brazen arrogance from

:43:02.:43:04.

Tories down south suggesting they're just going to discount the views of

:43:05.:43:08.

people in Scotland, at some point, the penny is going to drop that it

:43:09.:43:12.

is inconsistent to say that the union matters so much that we

:43:13.:43:15.

respect the views of people right across the nations and regions of

:43:16.:43:21.

these islands, but to act in the diametrically opposed away and just

:43:22.:43:24.

ignore the democratic will of people in Scotland or anywhere else, I

:43:25.:43:30.

think is unsustainable for Unionism. We don't want to refer to

:43:31.:43:37.

constituencies. That is an interest of fairness. It is not fair to talk

:43:38.:43:41.

about particular constituencies unless we have everyone standing in

:43:42.:43:50.

that constituency. If in this election, you will be hoping you do

:43:51.:43:54.

as well as last time, but should the SNP even lose one or two seats, your

:43:55.:43:58.

political opponents will save you have less than 50% of the vote, that

:43:59.:44:06.

means that over 50% of people in Scotland voted for parties which are

:44:07.:44:11.

against having a referendum. What would you reply to that? It is a

:44:12.:44:19.

very odd understanding of democracy. The last time I looked, the

:44:20.:44:23.

important thing that happened in elections is who wins. At the

:44:24.:44:28.

moment, it looks like the largest single group of voters in Scotland

:44:29.:44:32.

won't the XMP to represent them. You're suggesting that because a

:44:33.:44:38.

party that has almost every seat in the country loses one and it loses

:44:39.:44:44.

legitimacy. I cannot believe in the 21st century that is a common

:44:45.:44:48.

understanding of how democracy works. The SNP represents almost

:44:49.:44:52.

every single one of the seats in Scotland. It has been suggested now

:44:53.:44:58.

that if we were to lose one or two seats, somehow we have lost all

:44:59.:45:03.

legitimacy. The mandate we have been given by the electorate of Scotland

:45:04.:45:10.

somehow does not count. It is as a strange view of democracy and

:45:11.:45:17.

society. Every vote counts equally. Is the largest single number of

:45:18.:45:22.

people in Scotland vote SNP, political parties should respect

:45:23.:45:27.

that. Either simply suggesting what your political opponents would say.

:45:28.:45:35.

You have suggested that if you are the largest party in Scotland, you

:45:36.:45:40.

want some sort of seat in the Brexit negotiations. What is it you want,

:45:41.:45:44.

and what have the British government said? Viewers will remember the

:45:45.:45:48.

Scottish Government worked very hard to try and get a compromise

:45:49.:45:53.

agreement with the UK Government, to try to get a joint approach and work

:45:54.:45:59.

out whether we could find a differentiate arrangement to satisfy

:46:00.:46:03.

different parts of the UK. The majority of people in Scotland voted

:46:04.:46:07.

to remain. We wanted to work with the UK Government to try to deliver

:46:08.:46:11.

that. For whatever reason, Theresa May and colleagues have decided they

:46:12.:46:15.

can ignore that. We're suggesting that if people in Scotland want

:46:16.:46:22.

Scotland's interests to be taken seriously, it would be a good thing

:46:23.:46:25.

for the Scottish Government to be directly represented in building the

:46:26.:46:31.

UK's case in relation to Brexit negotiations. It is a democratic

:46:32.:46:39.

point. If you want Scotland to have a strong voice to influence

:46:40.:46:41.

negotiations and make sure we don't have the hard chaotic damaging

:46:42.:46:46.

Brexit the UK Government is heading towards, one has to have as many SNP

:46:47.:46:50.

parliamentarians as possible. Is not, were not going to see the

:46:51.:46:55.

return of all fisheries powers, agriculture powers that of support

:46:56.:46:59.

we require in rural communities. It is only by having a direct Scottish

:47:00.:47:05.

Government and SNP voice. In many other European countries, they have

:47:06.:47:11.

to take on board the views of different parts of the country. If

:47:12.:47:16.

that is possible elsewhere, it should be possible in the UK. It

:47:17.:47:27.

shouldn't beyond the wit of imagination to incorporate different

:47:28.:47:31.

prowl these across the English regions and other nations. Now,

:47:32.:47:35.

social care. Whatever you think of the details of the system, in the

:47:36.:47:40.

Conservative manifesto, it says people can reserve ?100,000 of their

:47:41.:47:45.

assets, even if they have to sell their homes. If you have to sell

:47:46.:47:49.

your house in Scotland, as I understand it, you're on the

:47:50.:47:54.

protected up to ?26,000. Will you have proposals to give equivalent

:47:55.:48:03.

protection up to ?100,000 for people here who might be worried that

:48:04.:48:05.

should they have dementia it will have to sell their home and to their

:48:06.:48:07.

children who might worry that they're in inheritance will

:48:08.:48:09.

effectively disappear, as can happen at the moment? I think it is

:48:10.:48:14.

important to stress we are in a different situation in Scotland and

:48:15.:48:18.

so we already have free care for the elderly and that is something that

:48:19.:48:25.

one doesn't have in England. We have devolved powers. I can't give a

:48:26.:48:33.

detailed preview of every aspect of the SNP manifesto which is being

:48:34.:48:36.

launched this week. But I'm trying to make the point that we have

:48:37.:48:39.

different policy approaches in Scotland, thank goodness, on this.

:48:40.:48:45.

We have free personal care. In England, as part of an

:48:46.:48:48.

intergenerational debate, the Tories seem to be wanting to pull away any

:48:49.:48:54.

support for older people in our communities. There are elements

:48:55.:48:57.

which will impact Scotland. For example, the triple lock on

:48:58.:49:05.

pensions. They have confirmed they will give up on that. The SNP will

:49:06.:49:09.

support the triple lock. All other questions, you will have to wait for

:49:10.:49:11.

the manifesto launch. For many, who are elderly, the issue

:49:12.:49:24.

of whether it is a double lock or of the lot is not as that important as

:49:25.:49:32.

the issue of whether they have to sell the house. The point is you

:49:33.:49:38.

cannot seem to guarantee what Theresa May can guarantee. I am sure

:49:39.:49:43.

you are not want as here monger amongst older viewers. You and I

:49:44.:49:48.

would want to stress that in Scotland we have free personal care,

:49:49.:49:52.

that means one does not need to sell is one house to get that sort of

:49:53.:49:58.

support. The Scottish Government is committed to it, you already get it.

:49:59.:50:09.

Wells to retaining free personal care, and the triple lock, we are

:50:10.:50:15.

saying the Tories represent a range of policy and oppose all switch will

:50:16.:50:18.

it especially poorer pensioners and away that is an except the ball. The

:50:19.:50:24.

SNP are standing up for pensioners, if you want that support, people

:50:25.:50:30.

will have to support SNP in the election. We are running out of

:50:31.:50:39.

time, there is a lot of controversy about the rape close. I using that

:50:40.:50:43.

Scotland will not implement the limiting of tax credit to children

:50:44.:50:50.

who fall under the rape close in the first place? Forgive me again and

:50:51.:50:55.

thank you for the opportunity to preview the manifesto but I am not

:50:56.:51:01.

in a position to go into the details of the manifesto. The SNP and my

:51:02.:51:06.

colleagues at Westminster have work tirelessly to expose what is utterly

:51:07.:51:13.

unacceptable way to treat people who have gone through the violation of

:51:14.:51:19.

rape. The SNP will do everything we can to change that situation at

:51:20.:51:22.

Westminster, because was a decision there that has brought this about.

:51:23.:51:26.

Unfortunately Tories standing in every single constituency in

:51:27.:51:31.

Scotland support the rape close. The SNP do not. We will have to leave it

:51:32.:51:36.

at that. Thank you very much for joining us with a view of the

:51:37.:51:37.

bridge. Now, in the week before the general

:51:38.:51:40.

election, BBC Scotland will be hosting a series of 'Ask

:51:41.:51:42.

the Leader' TV debates - a different leader each night

:51:43.:51:45.

- chaired by Glenn Campbell If you'd like to take part,

:51:46.:51:48.

then you can apply online by visiting our BBC News

:51:49.:51:52.

and Reporting Scotland websites. It's been a week of frantic

:51:53.:51:54.

manoeuvring across Scotland's councils, as political parties

:51:55.:51:56.

try to form working administrations. After typically spending the months

:51:57.:51:58.

before the council elections decrying the record of other

:51:59.:52:02.

Parties, you won't be surprised to hear that many of those same

:52:03.:52:04.

politicians have now found that they can, indeed,

:52:05.:52:07.

work with each other. In Aberdeen though, Labour

:52:08.:52:09.

members who got together with the Conservatives have been

:52:10.:52:11.

left out in the cold, After this month's local elections,

:52:12.:52:25.

the road ahead for a Scotland's councils is looking Keeler. In

:52:26.:52:32.

Glasgow the SNP scored a significant victory. Elsewhere the scores are

:52:33.:52:36.

confused and that could lead to political roadblocks. When that

:52:37.:52:41.

happens, marriages of political convenience can look very

:52:42.:52:44.

attractive. But when Labour councillors decided to just that in

:52:45.:52:50.

Aberdeen, forming a college in with the Conservatives and independents

:52:51.:52:54.

and excusing the SNP, they were smacked down by their party

:52:55.:52:58.

leadership. When the council is Duggan, they were suspended from the

:52:59.:53:05.

party. Your reaction from the suspension at the Labour Party. I am

:53:06.:53:09.

disappointed because I have been a member of the Labour Party a long

:53:10.:53:14.

time. We took the decision we wanted to go into a coalition because we

:53:15.:53:18.

felt it was the right decision for the people of Aberdeen. We have

:53:19.:53:22.

anti-austerities means within the programme that will be brought

:53:23.:53:27.

forward. In Aberdeen show the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats

:53:28.:53:31.

also came together. The new deputy leader says unions like this can

:53:32.:53:35.

bear fruit for voters. Aberdeenshire is a very good counsel. It has a

:53:36.:53:41.

very good reputation across scale wind and across Aberdeenshire it has

:53:42.:53:44.

been a good and effective counsel. I would not say despite of coalition

:53:45.:53:50.

but because of coalition. Because we have worked together we have enabled

:53:51.:53:54.

to park national politics at the door and focus on what is best for

:53:55.:53:59.

Aberdeenshire. Labour's Aberdeen trouble has provided its... When a

:54:00.:54:10.

party goes into election, it states very clearly what we will do. The

:54:11.:54:15.

SNP said it would not do deals with the Tories. People knew what they

:54:16.:54:19.

were voting for. The difference in Aberdeen, they thought they were

:54:20.:54:24.

voting for Labour and ended up getting a towering council. I do not

:54:25.:54:27.

think that is representative of what people would have wanted full top

:54:28.:54:31.

the Scottish Conservatives say that in trying to scupper the Aberdeen

:54:32.:54:35.

deal, the leader has shown poor judgment. Kezia Dugdale has made it

:54:36.:54:41.

clear that she now pretends to be a pro UK party and wants to protect

:54:42.:54:44.

the union, she has made the wrong choice and judgment that. It is

:54:45.:54:51.

clear she cannot be trusted with the union. Labour has forbidden in as

:54:52.:54:55.

those in West Lothian with doing a deal with conservatives there. And

:54:56.:55:00.

with negotiations to form coalitions elsewhere, they will continue next

:55:01.:55:04.

week. If they want a happy ending, they will have to find a way to live

:55:05.:55:06.

together for the sake of the voters. Well, joining me now to discuss some

:55:07.:55:08.

of the points raised there is Scottish Labour's Deputy Leader,

:55:09.:55:11.

Alex Rowley. Barney Crockett, who is the new

:55:12.:55:18.

Provincetown of Aberdeen and is Labour, he said a couple of days ago

:55:19.:55:23.

he was confident with this bat he is having with the Labour Party, would

:55:24.:55:27.

soon be over and he would be reinstated as a full member of the

:55:28.:55:33.

party. Will he? If the Labour councillors, former Labour

:55:34.:55:36.

councillors and Aberdeen withdraw from the deal that did not have

:55:37.:55:41.

agreement with the Scottish executive committee, then yes he

:55:42.:55:45.

would be reinstated. But if they stay as part of the administration,

:55:46.:55:50.

Norway? No. There is a process that will have to be undertaken. The rule

:55:51.:55:56.

book states that when a council, a Labour council want to enter in a

:55:57.:56:00.

coalition, they have to give the agreement of the Scottish is active

:56:01.:56:04.

committee. In the case of Aberdeen, they do not have that agreement from

:56:05.:56:09.

the proposal they put forward. If they do not withdraw from the

:56:10.:56:12.

administration, there is no sign they will withdraw, they will be

:56:13.:56:16.

expelled from the Labour Party's they will continue with the

:56:17.:56:26.

suspension. Then there will be an investigation. A decision will be

:56:27.:56:30.

taken. The argument was that they should not go into this

:56:31.:56:33.

administration with the Conservatives because this would

:56:34.:56:40.

implement austerity in some way. Can you tell us what specifically was

:56:41.:56:45.

the agreed to that made the Scottish executive at the Labour Party

:56:46.:56:52.

rejected? Each group is setting out what the proposal is. Specific areas

:56:53.:56:57.

that the Scottish executive committee have highlighted is

:56:58.:56:59.

firstly that Labour would make a difference. What is the difference

:57:00.:57:04.

Labour would be making by entering into a coalition. What would they be

:57:05.:57:08.

delivering? The policy agenda has to be first. It cannot just be about...

:57:09.:57:15.

Secondly, each group was asked to set out very clearly how they would

:57:16.:57:21.

oppose austerity, how the words in the local area mitigate austerity.

:57:22.:57:27.

In the case of Aberdeen when the proposal was brought forward to the

:57:28.:57:29.

executive, there were concerns that that was not clear how they would

:57:30.:57:34.

deal with and fight against austerity. Secondly in Aberdeen,

:57:35.:57:38.

there was also concerned because they were not, the group coming

:57:39.:57:45.

together would not form a majority administration in the council. That

:57:46.:57:49.

was a concern as well. Other groups who have brought forward proposals

:57:50.:57:52.

didn't necessarily get them through the first time of bringing forward.

:57:53.:57:57.

They were asked to go back and have a look at key areas that were of

:57:58.:58:03.

concern to the Scottish executive. In Aberdeen, they decided to go

:58:04.:58:07.

ahead anyway and therefore they are clearly in breach of the rules. In

:58:08.:58:12.

faith, or in South Ayrshire were Labour has gone into administration

:58:13.:58:16.

with the Scottish National Party, can you give us some examples of

:58:17.:58:21.

things, either things that won't happen in these that areas will

:58:22.:58:25.

happen in Aberdeen, or things that won't happen in Aberdeen that will

:58:26.:58:29.

happen in these areas? We have 40,000 children more in poverty

:58:30.:58:32.

today than we did have last year at this time. 260,000 children in

:58:33.:58:39.

poverty across Scotland. Local authorities are taking the brunt of

:58:40.:58:43.

that in terms of having to put into services, invest in services and try

:58:44.:58:48.

about those people, as food banks in Scotland will... What has this got

:58:49.:58:54.

to do with the differences in these areas? They will expose and attack

:58:55.:59:01.

the parties who are behind the austerity. What will be different

:59:02.:59:10.

and Aberdeen? What is different in Fife is that they have set out

:59:11.:59:14.

clearly how they will oppose austerity and they have set out

:59:15.:59:19.

clearly as I counsel how they will, that they will fight austerity,

:59:20.:59:24.

every step of the way. They will do everything to mitigate austerity.

:59:25.:59:29.

They will not be any cuts and five? The coalition agreement that

:59:30.:59:32.

designed sets out very clearly how they are going to tackle the worst

:59:33.:59:37.

impacts of austerity, how they will address poverty. Part of that is to

:59:38.:59:43.

take the fight to the Tory government. The Tories in Scotland

:59:44.:59:49.

are in complete denial. What you are saying is completely mysterious, the

:59:50.:59:51.

difference in areas like Aberdeen where you have deal with the Tories

:59:52.:59:58.

and in other areas. The Tory party in Scotland are in complete denial

:59:59.:00:06.

about the impact of their policies. They are in denial about the impact

:00:07.:00:10.

that their policies are having. You just don't want deals with the

:00:11.:00:15.

Tories? We will not enter into coalition with parties who are in

:00:16.:00:22.

complete denial about the impact... Aberdeen came forward with a

:00:23.:00:25.

coalition agreement that set out very clearly the impact that Tory

:00:26.:00:31.

policy was having on Aberdeen with a clear commitment to fight that. Then

:00:32.:00:39.

people would be more comfortable. You say they act as an accelerator

:00:40.:00:46.

for them. The SNP are failing to use the powers and the Scottish

:00:47.:00:49.

parliament in the way that they do. Why is it OK to be in a deal with

:00:50.:00:55.

the SNP? Any coalition agreement with the SNP, those councils will

:00:56.:00:59.

fight for the investment, they will campaign for investment, so they

:01:00.:01:03.

will campaign with the Scottish Government, against the Scottish

:01:04.:01:07.

Government, to get that investment come in. We will stand up to

:01:08.:01:14.

austerity, stand up to the poverty that is impacting on people in

:01:15.:01:18.

Scotland. If people are watching this in Aberdeen Association or

:01:19.:01:22.

five, I think they will be completely mystified as to

:01:23.:01:27.

impractical terms, what will happen to Aberdeen as to what is different

:01:28.:01:31.

happening in Fife, other than some rhetoric. Give me some practical

:01:32.:01:41.

examples. One practical example? We are not satisfied the coalition

:01:42.:01:43.

proposals being forward from Aberdeen set out clear enough... I

:01:44.:01:49.

am telling you, they were not satisfied that the proposals that

:01:50.:01:53.

were brought forward from Aberdeen set out clearly enough how they were

:01:54.:01:56.

going to deal with austerity and how they were going to take on the party

:01:57.:02:02.

of austerity in Scotland. This is austerity as a platonic abstract

:02:03.:02:07.

idea. You cannot give me a single practical example. What is the

:02:08.:02:10.

difference between Aberdeen and five? They have not set out very

:02:11.:02:15.

clearly how they intend to challenge, fight that. This has not

:02:16.:02:21.

happened at by accident. This has happened because of a Tory party in

:02:22.:02:26.

denial of the human misery it is creating in Scotland. We will have

:02:27.:02:28.

to leave it there. So, how are the political

:02:29.:02:30.

skirmishes, the manifesto promises and the myriad photo calls playing

:02:31.:02:32.

out as far as the voters Professor John Curtice

:02:33.:02:35.

is as well placed as anyone He joins us now. Labour must be

:02:36.:02:46.

quite cheered by the polls we have seen today, are are they been

:02:47.:02:51.

misconstrued? You are certainly right that it looks as though the

:02:52.:03:01.

Conservative leader --... When she called the election, the

:03:02.:03:07.

Conservatives were around 16 - 17 points ahead of the Labour Party on

:03:08.:03:11.

average. The first immediate consequence of calling the election

:03:12.:03:14.

was a decline in Ukip support, going directly to the Conservatives, such

:03:15.:03:20.

we were getting polls putting Conservatives 20 points ahead.

:03:21.:03:27.

Gradually during the chorus over the last two - 2.5 weeks, the Labour

:03:28.:03:31.

vote has been rising. Until this morning we would have said the

:03:32.:03:35.

Labour Party has played catch up. They are only 16 or 17 points

:03:36.:03:41.

behind. That would be enough to give Theresa May a landslide of 100 or

:03:42.:03:45.

so. We have had for polls this morning. Two can tuck did before the

:03:46.:03:53.

manifesto launch. To dine afterwards. They have leads ranging

:03:54.:03:59.

between nine and 13 points. Once the lead get down to that kind of level,

:04:00.:04:03.

then be again to ask ourselves whether or not Theresa May is

:04:04.:04:10.

guaranteed to get the landslide she is looking for. It was only as

:04:11.:04:14.

7-point lead that the Conservatives had last time, that only got Theresa

:04:15.:04:24.

May a of 12. It gets to the level of 2015, yes Theresa May will still be

:04:25.:04:28.

the favourite to be Prime Minister, but she may not get the landslide.

:04:29.:04:32.

What do the polls tend to do in the UK? If they get it wrong, the over

:04:33.:04:38.

estimate labour. That is something that is in the back of everyone's

:04:39.:04:43.

made. Was that not corrected? The polls have done their best. But

:04:44.:04:47.

whether or not they have succeeded, the truth is we will not know until

:04:48.:04:52.

June nine. Any intelligent person will be aware that there is a

:04:53.:04:57.

potential uncertainty. The second potential uncertainty, the polls

:04:58.:05:02.

suggest may be going on, insofar as there is a conservative advance,

:05:03.:05:06.

that advance may be stronger in the North of England. In Scotland and

:05:07.:05:10.

the Midlands than it is in the south of England. If that happens, even

:05:11.:05:14.

the Conservatives have a majority across the country of 12% points,

:05:15.:05:20.

Theresa May might still get a lying splayed. There is plenty for Labour

:05:21.:05:23.

to worry about but the truth is an election which in a sense looked

:05:24.:05:28.

like it was just heading inevitably towards a Tory landslide has just

:05:29.:05:31.

begun to get a little more interesting.

:05:32.:05:37.

To do this. Is normally the case that if the gap in the polls narrows

:05:38.:05:46.

during the campaign, would be normally expected to widen again as

:05:47.:05:50.

we get nearer to polling day? Or Genaro Pfizer -- or two narrow

:05:51.:06:01.

further? In 2015, nothing really happened in the polls throughout.

:06:02.:06:05.

They were persistently wrong, but constantly pointing to a narrow

:06:06.:06:10.

outcome. We have had two very substantial movements in these

:06:11.:06:14.

polls. The first is the rise in Conservative support. Now we have

:06:15.:06:23.

seen Labour support rise by five or six percentage points. These are by

:06:24.:06:26.

historical standards rather remarkable movements. It suggests we

:06:27.:06:33.

have an electorate which hasn't quite made its mind up. I don't

:06:34.:06:39.

think you could look at a historical precedents and say you can forget

:06:40.:06:43.

this. The rise in labour support has been evident in the polls long

:06:44.:06:47.

before this weekend and long before the Tory manifesto launch. What were

:06:48.:06:54.

seen at the moment is not within any margin of error? Looks like it

:06:55.:06:58.

really is reflecting a change? Even of the polls are wrong in terms of

:06:59.:07:04.

their levels, one thing we can rely the polls is to identify change. We

:07:05.:07:11.

have seen the polls persistently and gradually record at least some

:07:12.:07:16.

increase in Labour support. No guarantee it will continue. No

:07:17.:07:19.

guarantee the Labour Party have momentum. Are there any Scottish

:07:20.:07:24.

polls? Kilmichael was a Scottish poll came out on Friday morning to

:07:25.:07:30.

confirm what we already knew. The SNP are running at around 42%. The

:07:31.:07:36.

Conservatives just short of 30%. That is certainly enough to mean the

:07:37.:07:44.

SNP will lose some seats. The Liberal Democrats might pick up a

:07:45.:07:52.

couple of seats. Edinburgh South, we never know what will happen from any

:07:53.:07:58.

kind of opinion poll at all. Thank you.

:07:59.:08:00.

And time now for a look at the Week Ahead.

:08:01.:08:04.

I'm joined by journalist Katie Grant and Scottish Political Editor

:08:05.:08:06.

Tom, is a realistic to think this election will suddenly become close

:08:07.:08:22.

and We would all love it to be like that. Looking at the Conservative

:08:23.:08:30.

headline at the moment, it is still mid-40s, that is Tony Blair at his

:08:31.:08:38.

height sort of level. Drama would be nice. I think the polls are showing

:08:39.:08:40.

a big gap. I think the Conservatives with the

:08:41.:08:56.

manifesto have tried to tackle some of the major issues in quite a

:08:57.:09:00.

fundamental way which is not going to be popular, for example social

:09:01.:09:04.

care. There will be controversy about that. The seem to be practical

:09:05.:09:09.

solutions to major problems, whereas I think the Labour Party manifesto,

:09:10.:09:19.

and some of the others, are more fantastic. Mobot people might like

:09:20.:09:24.

to see. To be fair to Labour, they point out that there is a

:09:25.:09:29.

Conservative one has a separate document was it costs everything in

:09:30.:09:36.

it. They do, but I don't know whether voters are interested in

:09:37.:09:43.

that. We see practical things which are the questions of what can work

:09:44.:09:46.

and what can we afford, and the other side which says what would we

:09:47.:09:50.

like it all to be like? I think it is that clash which will be

:09:51.:09:55.

interesting over the election. People's whether from thinking, do

:09:56.:09:59.

we need to just grasp these nettles and say we have to do something

:10:00.:10:03.

about social care, even if we don't like what is proposed? Or are they

:10:04.:10:08.

going to say, we are still going to carry on thinking perhaps we can

:10:09.:10:18.

afford everything. The week ahead, the SNP, do the need to come out

:10:19.:10:21.

with anything fresh and interesting and different in the manifesto? Or

:10:22.:10:26.

given their dominance in Scotland, do they need to just say keep going?

:10:27.:10:34.

Repetition. Vote for the SNP for a strong voice for Scotland in

:10:35.:10:38.

Westminster. I think some of the arguments they are advancing lack

:10:39.:10:46.

the traction of 2015 because any prospect of a hung parliament seems

:10:47.:10:55.

to be gone. Questions on independence will still dominate.

:10:56.:11:01.

The arithmetic doesn't really give them much purchase at Westminster.

:11:02.:11:05.

Wiki getting ignored by the Conservatives already. I don't see

:11:06.:11:09.

by the Conservatives would pay attention to them next time. If you

:11:10.:11:14.

were the SNP, what would you do? They did so well last time, the risk

:11:15.:11:19.

is he might not do as well. They could do better. Steady as she goes?

:11:20.:11:27.

I would try and refresh the message of this fear society. We have been

:11:28.:11:34.

in power for here -- in power here for ten years. Some of the chickens

:11:35.:11:39.

are coming home to roost, why haven't they got much better as you

:11:40.:11:45.

promised? If the SNP gave up this notion of Independence, which I know

:11:46.:11:49.

they are never going to, but as he just said they were fighting for a

:11:50.:11:54.

stronger voice for all Scots, I think they would clean up. That is

:11:55.:11:59.

what people want. People are frightened that an SNP victory will

:12:00.:12:03.

give them something they don't want. Write them a little memo, dear SNP,

:12:04.:12:08.

give up independence and you will be fine. The Aberdeen councillors. You

:12:09.:12:15.

couldn't make this up. I feel slightly sorry for Kezia Dugdale

:12:16.:12:20.

Emma Way. And if she did Anne Panter she didn't. If Labour had sided with

:12:21.:12:28.

the Conservatives, the SNP would say vote Labour, get Tory. It was never

:12:29.:12:36.

going to be an elegant solution to this dilemma. What has come out has

:12:37.:12:41.

been very ungainly situation. Why not just say, we are not having

:12:42.:12:48.

deals with the Tories. They're assistant to each particular deal.

:12:49.:12:55.

This has been politics at its very worst. Local politics which is seen

:12:56.:13:00.

as came more about politics than the people it is supposed to represent.

:13:01.:13:04.

I think it has been shameful for the Labour Party and I think the

:13:05.:13:09.

previous interview with Mr Gordon was such a mess. Mr Rowley. Excuse

:13:10.:13:21.

me. It must be my age. I think that has been a very bad mark for

:13:22.:13:27.

politics in general. Thank you very much. We will have to leave it

:13:28.:13:29.

there. I'll be back at the

:13:30.:13:31.

same time next week. As voters prepare to go to the polls

:13:32.:13:35.

to choose who represents them and who will run the country,

:13:36.:13:39.

the Conservative Party leader, Theresa May, joins me

:13:40.:13:42.

for The Andrew Neil Interviews.

:13:43.:13:47.

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