17/12/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland


17/12/2017

Sarah Smith and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate. The political panel comprises Camilla Tominey, Steve Richards and Tom Newton-Dunn.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Morning, everyone,

and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

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I'm Sarah Smith.

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And for the last time in 2017,

this is your guide to the big

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political stories making the news

this Sunday morning.

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Theresa May says she's silenced

the doubters by securing a deal

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for Britain in the first phase

of the Brexit negotations.

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Now attention turns to the much

bigger task of deciding our future

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relationship with the EU.

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She'll be discussing that

with her cabinet this week,

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but with so many huge unresolved

questions about life after Brexit,

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can we possibly expect

seasonal goodwill to break out

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across the Tory party

and the country?

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And I'm here at stunning Warwick

Castle to find out whether people

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here think that Labour are ready

or not ready for government,

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And on Sunday Politics Scotland

at 11.35am, as well as a look back

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over the year, we'll be asking

what's going wrong with our economy

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and can it be fixed?

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All that coming up in the programme,

our final show of the year.

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Think of it as

our early Christmas present,

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one I'm afraid you can't

take back to the shops.

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And joining me today,

Fleet Street's answer

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to Santa's little helpers,

Tom Newton Dunn,

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Camilla Tominey and Steve Richards.

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Well, we began the year

talking about Brexit,

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and we'll finish talking about...

you've guessed it, Brexit.

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And there have been big developments

in just the past week,

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which saw Theresa May go from hero

to zero, to somewhere in between.

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Seasonal goodwill spread

through the Conservative Party

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on Monday, when Theresa May reported

back to Parliament on her deal to

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move Brexit talks on to phase two.

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When people like me, Brexiteers,

look at the alternative,

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namely the Labour government,

a Labour government staying

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in the single market forever

and having no control over

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immigration, it's amazing

how our minds are concentrated

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in support of the Prime Minister.

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Across these benches,

complete unanimity

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in congratulating the Prime Minister

on securing this agreement.

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That Christmas cheer

did not last long.

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On the eve of the European

summit to ratify the deal,

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the EU Withdrawal Bill was

back in the Commons.

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The Government avoided defeat

on several amendments,

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but then came former

Attorney General Dominic Grieve

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and his call for MPs

to have a meaningful vote

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on the final Brexit deal.

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Brexit Secretary David Davis

tried to head off the rebellion

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with a letter to backbenchers.

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In the final hour,

there was a last-ditch offer.

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It wasn't enough.

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It's too late. I'm sorry.

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You cannot, you cannot treat

the House in this fashion.

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The Prime Minister suffered

her first defeat on government

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business of her premiership.

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The ayes to the right, 309.

The noes to the left, 305.

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Labour were delighted.

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The Prime Minister tried a power

grab, tried to push through the EU

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Withdrawal Bill without proper

Parliamentary scrutiny and take

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powers away from Parliament.

Parliament resisted tonight.

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Brexit supporters were enraged.

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One rebel, Stephen Hammond,

was promptly sacked

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as vice-chairman of the party.

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It was an embarrassment

for Theresa May, not a fatal blow.

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On Thursday, she arrived

in Brussels sounding upbeat.

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I'm disappointed with the amendment,

but actually the, EU Withdrawal Bill

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is making good progress

through the House of Commons,

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and we're on course

to deliver on Brexit.

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She was applauded by leaders

of the 27 EU member states,

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rewarded on Friday with a tweet

from EU Council President Donald

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Tusk confirming they had agreed

to move on to phase two

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of the talks.

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"Congratulations,

Theresa May," he said.

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Mrs May can't put her feet up

for holidays just yet.

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The Cabinet will meet this week

to discuss what the future

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relationship with the EU will

look like for the first time.

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No one's expecting them all to be

singing from the same carol sheet.

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But on Friday,

a fresh rebellion over the EU

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Withdrawal Bill was headed off,

so peace on earth, or at least

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within the Conservative

Party, reigns for now.

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But how much longer can that harmony

exist within the Cabinet? I will

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talk to the panel about next week's

discussion on the future end state

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of our relations with the EU,

because it will be discussed in

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Cabinet for the first time. Theresa

May writing in the papers today, she

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proved the doubters wrong, is she

right?

She did in the sense that

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many people thought she wouldn't get

through the first phase. They found

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words to bind all parties together.

That's what she did in the first

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phase. She is right in that sense.

The second phase of which this

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Cabinet meeting this week will be

just an early tiptoeing on the

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Touraine, it will be much more

mountainous and difficult. I suspect

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the Cabinet meeting will be merely

exploring some of the themes, and

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there will be, for sure, no

resolution as to what the

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government's final position will be.

We have seen some themes explored

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this week, Philip Hammond yesterday

in China talking about staying

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within the EU rules and regulations

during the transition. We have Boris

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Johnson in the papers today setting

out a vision for by virgin further

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from the EU then people like Hammond

would like. Will that be aired in

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Cabinet?

Are they going to be

singing from the same carol sheet...

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Will they sing from the same

spreadsheet in relation to Philip

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Hammond's desires? We note Boris

Johnson speaking today in the Sunday

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Times, talking about the notion of

eventual self-governance and a

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diverging. You have also got Michael

Gove wanting, during the transition

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period, for us to be out of the

common agricultural policy, Albert

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the Common fisheries policy, that

will be a difficult issue for them

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to discuss. We are not even getting

onto the end trade deal, and which

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direction do we want to go in? The

Prime Minister has made clear she

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wants Canada plus model as opposed

to a Norway style of agreement,

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which to be fair to her, she pointed

out in Florence. She said an EEA

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agreement was not what was agreed,

and we don't want to be rule takers.

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There is a lot to play for. Two

Cabinet meetings, one of the

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subcabinet, the war committee, and

the one on Tuesday following the

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parliament really address.

The

papers have gone on the idea that

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Boris is setting out a different

vision of Britain after Brexit, but

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is it different to Theresa May in

her Florence Beach?

Not really. This

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is no different to what Boris has

said, the Sunday before Christmas,

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there had to be a row -- Florence

speech. This is well established

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positions, we know what they all

think, and we have all been saying

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for a year and a half since the

referendum that am at some stage, it

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would have to be crossed. There has

to be a big choice between a

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diverging or harmonisation, because

so far, the EU has been binary about

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it. It won't be solved in Cabinet

this week or next month, my bet is,

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yet again, they will come up with a

fudged to present to the EU, or

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Cabinet will fall apart and half of

them will have to leave. Eventually,

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it will have to be grasped in the

autumn when the EU say, "You either

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have to defecate or get off the

potty, because this is what is in

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front of you." The third option was

interesting, at the summit on

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Friday, something interesting

happened, which was the EU blinked,

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they said, "Move on to trade and

transition." But we are not quite

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ready to do trade. We are incredibly

United to begin with, now we don't

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know what we want. We have three

months before trade starts in March

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for everybody, for the British

Governor, to influence the EU 27 in

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their thinking, and come up with a

great third Way, which is cake and

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eat it.

And will be considerably

more corrugated than what we have

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done already. Stay there, we will

come back to you during the course

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of the programme.

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Well, we can speak now

to the Conservative MP

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for mid-Bedfordshire.

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She ruffled some feathers this week

when she said that pro-European

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Tories who rebelled

on the EU Withdrawal Bill

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should be deselected.

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Thank you for joining us. Can we

talk first about the transition, or

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implementation period, two years

after we leave the EU, a number of

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your colleagues have expressed a

number of serious concerns about the

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idea we will be following EU rules

and regulations during that period,

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how worried are you about that?

I

think everybody's concerned about

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that. The important thing is, we get

this period, this transition period,

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through and done as quickly as

possible. Therefore, we have to

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reach agreement. The reason why it

needs to be done as quickly as

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possible is because it is in

Britain's interests, it is in the

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interest of business, who required

stability and security, and

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confidence moving forward. We've do

need to get to this position as

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quickly as possible. The rebels from

last week are going to have to

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explain why, if they don't think we

should leave the Commons fishery

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policy, why that would not be in

Britain's interest. There is a lot

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up for debate going forward.

The

Chancellor made it clear that he

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would be replicating the status quo

during this transition period. That

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doesn't mean leaving the common

fisheries policy or die vaulting in

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any way from EU rules. -- by

vaulting.

During his budget speech,

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he himself talk about the uniqueness

of Britain. It took about my own

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constituency and area, which will

become a tech corridor. So he has

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highlighted areas where we can

divert, which is in high-tech. We

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can do it in that area, we can do it

in my constituency, like art we do

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it in other areas...

The point he

was talking about was, yesterday, he

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said, we would be subject to all old

rules and regulations during that

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period.

It also depends how long

that period is going to be. Most

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reasonable and sensible people can

accept a period of time when we need

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to have those discussions, and when

we will abide by those rules. The

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problem is, what we don't want to

see is Brexit constantly kicked into

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the long grass as we go further and

further forward, and Brexit never

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seems to be actually happening.

There has to be an endgame.

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Everybody wants to see that. If we

can't see that quickly enough, then

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we do have to have these unique and

these individual situations where we

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may need to pull out of certain

things sooner.

Talking about the

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endgame, that is what the Cabinet

will discuss this week, we know

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there will be a debate inside there,

and people like Philip Hammond the

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Chancellor will argue that we stay

closely aligned to EU rules and

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regulations even after we have

finally left, how worried are you

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about those so-called soft

Brexiteers prevailing in Cabinet?

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Gosh, do you know... I'm not sure

they will prevail. I trust Theresa

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May, I trust David Davies, I trust

Amber Rudd. I trust all of the

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people in Cabinet to reach an

agreement. And because what they

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will be doing is reaching an

agreement in Britain's interest and

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the interest of Parliament, and the

interest of Brexit. All of those

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people in Cabinet stood on a

manifesto in 2017 to deliver Brexit,

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and they have to do that in a way

which the British people, who

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democratically exercised their vote,

would like to see. Otherwise they

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will lose the support of the British

public.

You say you trust the

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Cabinet to deliver Brexit, do you

trust all of your Tory MP colleagues

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to do so?

Well, I hope so. Can I

just say, I know the rebels are

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being lauded as he arose from whence

they not, can I tell you who the

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real heroes are in all of this, they

are the Conservative MPs, not the

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Labour MPs, but the Conservative MPs

who believed in Remain, who

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campaigned for Remain, during the EU

referendum, but stood on a manifesto

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to deliver Brexit, and they are the

people who are the unsung heroes,

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who are backing the government and

backing Theresa May, and doing so

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because they know that is their duty

to do so. Some of the rebels could

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perhaps learn a lesson from some of

their Remain colleagues, who know

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the right thing to do is to deliver

Brexit, because that was voted for a

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democratic mandate.

You are being

quite Conser Liege reef, --

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consulate tree, but you did at the

time tweaked that they should be

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deselected and never allowed to

stand as Tory MPs again, have you

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changed your mind about that?

Gosh... I don't know if I have

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changed my mind, but what I meant at

the time was, most of these rebels

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voted for the private members' Bill

to have a referendum. They stood on

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a manifesto in 2015 to deliver that

referendum. And then they stood

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again on a manifesto in 2017 to

implement Brexit. I think, to go

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back on those promises, that they

were elected to honour, it is

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something for their associations to

discuss and consider...

But... Have

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they gone back on those promises?

They would say they still want to

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intimate Brexit, they just want

Parliament to have control over that

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rather than the executive.

No, I

don't believe they do. I believe

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what they have deliberately tried to

do right from the moment of the

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referendum result is to frustrate

and delay Brexit, and I believe this

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is a very active tactic they are

using. No, I do believe they are

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honouring the promise they stood on

in the 20 Zinedine manifesto. They

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should put trust in David Davies and

the Prime Minister. Rather than make

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life difficult for the Prime

Minister when she is leaving to go

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to Brussels for further

negotiations, trust the Prime

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Minister and assist the Prime

Minister. That is what they have

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been elected to do. There is a

Conservative government that has

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been elected on a manifesto to

deliver Brexit.

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From the beginning, they have gone

out of their way to delay and

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frustrate this, and they need to

stop doing it.

Anna Soubry, one of

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the rebels, writing in the Mail on

Sunday, says that calls for rebels

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to be deselected mean the Tories now

have their own blue momentum

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movement.

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I do, I am sure he does.

You

frequently voted with your

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conscience, you voted against Tory

primaries does in the past and

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rebelled against the whip, why is it

different?

I voted many times

0:16:410:16:49

against the government, I am a

self-declared rebel, but I do it at

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a time, you have to choose your

rebellions carefully. What I would

0:16:520:16:56

say is different now is that we have

a Marxist government knocking on the

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door. We have a full mandate from

the British public to deliver

0:17:000:17:04

Brexit, they voted for it in the

referendum. These MPs stood on that

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promise in 2017, today is very

different. What happened on

0:17:100:17:13

Wednesday night was the rebels put a

spring in the step of Labour MPs.

0:17:130:17:16

The party in Jeremy Corbyn's office

could be heard in the car park

0:17:160:17:23

outside. It has made life difficult

for us to keep that Marxist

0:17:230:17:28

government out of power eventually.

They have helped Labour MPs find

0:17:280:17:31

their mojo one is again. We don't

want that to happen. We have an

0:17:310:17:37

important situation that has not

been seen since wartime. The

0:17:370:17:43

response ability was to support the

government.

Nadeem, thank you for

0:17:430:17:47

talking to us this morning.

0:17:470:17:49

We can speak now to one

of the leading pro-EU

0:17:490:17:51

Conservative MPs, Ken Clarke.

He's in Nottingham.

0:17:510:17:54

Thank you for joining us this

warning.

Glad to be here.

I hope you

0:17:540:18:01

could hear Nadine Dorries, she says

rebels, you and others, but voted

0:18:010:18:06

against the government on Wednesday,

are trying to reverse Brexit.

You

0:18:060:18:11

have succeeded in getting into all

of this personal stuff, but I do

0:18:110:18:14

think she is aiming it at me. I am a

member of the government that led us

0:18:140:18:21

into Europe and the single market, I

did not vote in the referendum, and

0:18:210:18:25

my constituents have no doubts about

my views. The 20 Zinedine manifesto

0:18:250:18:29

was produced after I had been

adopted as a candidate, no one sent

0:18:290:18:33

me a copy, and I haven't ever seen a

copy of it. Let's get back to the

0:18:330:18:39

big issues, which are how do we

preserve the future prosperity of

0:18:390:18:44

this country? How do we preserve a

leading position in world affairs to

0:18:440:18:47

look after our interest? What is the

best thing to do for the interests

0:18:470:18:54

of our children and our

grandchildren? All of these other

0:18:540:18:58

things, the right-wing newspaper

rubbish,, it is trying to get a Tory

0:18:580:19:07

equivalent of momentum.

Do you think

that the way to preserve the things

0:19:070:19:10

you talk about is to put reverse

Brexit?

I don't think we can do

0:19:100:19:14

that. I was in the small minority

when I voted against in -- invoking

0:19:140:19:23

Article 50. The party is moving

towards Brexit, the country will see

0:19:230:19:27

Brexit. Suddenly turning Brexit into

a proposal, we have big lorry parks,

0:19:270:19:40

customs officers, so different

market regulations, you know,

0:19:400:19:45

different rules about backing

cleaner noise, that was not what the

0:19:450:19:51

referendum was about. More

importantly, it will do great damage

0:19:510:19:54

to our economy, it could cost

thousands of jobs and make the

0:19:540:19:58

country much mess less attractive.

We have now got to try to reach an

0:19:580:20:07

agreement that produces a sensible,

sensible political and economic

0:20:070:20:12

future for this country in the real

world, not in the slightly childish

0:20:120:20:19

world of knock about politics.

How

confident are you the Cabinet will

0:20:190:20:22

come to that compromise when they

start to discuss things this week?

0:20:220:20:27

We keep having public statements,

which are rather alarming, but I am

0:20:270:20:31

reasonably confident that they can.

What are you alarmed by in the

0:20:310:20:35

public state was?

You are trying to

get me to go on about Boris, out of

0:20:350:20:43

line with what apply Mr has done.

But the Chancellor has a duty to

0:20:430:20:50

actually look after the British

economy, to make sure business is

0:20:500:20:55

not deterred from coming to this

country, to make sure we keep our

0:20:550:21:01

markets in Europe, and in the rest

of the world, as intact as we can. I

0:21:010:21:07

think the Cabinet will rally around

that.

Theresa May made pretty clear

0:21:070:21:13

in her Florence speech that what we

will leave the supermarket, the

0:21:130:21:16

customs unit, and there fetch you

ruled out the post Brexit future?

0:21:160:21:29

Lancaster House was the first time

anyone had interpreted, anyone in

0:21:290:21:34

authority, had interpreted the

referendum result to mean that. It

0:21:340:21:37

does give rise to problems. What

they have now got to address is the

0:21:370:21:42

problems that arise. It started with

last week, we suddenly faced

0:21:420:21:46

Ireland, which nobody had mentioned,

which is an insult to the people of

0:21:460:21:51

Northern Ireland and Republic of

Island, really we agreed then, we

0:21:510:21:55

must keep the border open with

regulatory convergence on both

0:21:550:22:00

sides. It applies to Dover and

Folkestone, and we won't get

0:22:000:22:03

planning permission for the lorry

parks we would need if we rush on

0:22:030:22:11

abandoning the single market in

March, 2019, we have brought coming.

0:22:110:22:15

Let's not into Gibraltar. It would

make the Irish problems looked like

0:22:150:22:21

a picnic. You will have a lot of

adage businesses wondering where on

0:22:210:22:24

earth Britain is going unless we now

interpret policy of the Florence

0:22:240:22:33

speech and move on from the Florence

speech, which was a big move

0:22:330:22:36

forward, move on from the fact that

we finally settled these three quite

0:22:360:22:42

simple issues that had to be settled

about our withdrawal, which could

0:22:420:22:46

have been months ago had it not been

for the troubles.

0:22:460:22:53

We need to get onto a sensible

economic future worked out by people

0:22:530:22:57

prepared to read the brief and who

know something about trade,

0:22:570:23:02

investment and business in the

modern, globalised economy.

With the

0:23:020:23:07

vote last week, in which Parliament

now gets a meaningful say on the

0:23:070:23:11

Brexit deal, do you interpret that

to mean that parliament could send

0:23:110:23:15

the Prime Minister back to Brussels

to renegotiate a different deal if

0:23:150:23:19

Parliament doesn't like it, so your

views have to be taken into account

0:23:190:23:21

with the final deal?

Politics in

this country is based on all

0:23:210:23:28

governments having to take the views

of Parliament into account. It's

0:23:280:23:31

difficult when Parliament is a small

majority where there is confusion,

0:23:310:23:35

because the issue cuts across party

lines, that makes it more difficult,

0:23:350:23:41

but it was a mistake to invoke the

royal prerogative, a mistake to try

0:23:410:23:45

but it was a mistake to invoke the

and avoid Parliament revoked. In the

0:23:450:23:47

end, this is determining our future

for the next generation or two on

0:23:470:23:53

difficult issues that Parliament

will have to approve before

0:23:530:23:57

government can get a deal. That

should strengthen Theresa May and

0:23:570:24:02

David Davis's hands in the

negotiations because, just like the

0:24:020:24:07

other 27 negotiators, they will have

to say that they can't deliver

0:24:070:24:10

things which they can't get past

their own parliament.

It's been

0:24:100:24:15

reported this morning that Heidi

Allen, a Conservative MP who

0:24:150:24:18

rebelled against the government last

week, is facing threats of

0:24:180:24:21

deselection. You are perfectly safe

in your constituency, are you? What

0:24:210:24:28

do you think of the other rebels

being deselected?

I don't think my

0:24:280:24:33

constituents have any doubts about

my views, not all of my association

0:24:330:24:36

agree with me, but I have never

fallen out with anybody personally

0:24:360:24:42

because of political differences. I

think this is all nonsense. It's

0:24:420:24:46

caused by the rubbish that keeps

appearing in the right-wing

0:24:460:24:49

newspapers, which have completely

lost their heads over the whole

0:24:490:24:52

thing. It is totally absurd to say

this is helping Jeremy Corbyn, it is

0:24:520:24:58

weakening Theresa May and all the

rest of it. Here we are, three days

0:24:580:25:02

after the vote took place, and

Theresa May is no weaker and she was

0:25:020:25:07

after that. Jeremy Corbyn is not

marching towards Downing Street.

0:25:070:25:16

What we voted for is a Parliamentary

accountability of the government.

0:25:160:25:21

Nothing to do with blocking Brexit,

and it is utterly idiotic few of our

0:25:210:25:26

association members in various parts

of country start interpreting this

0:25:260:25:31

as the start of some sort of purge

of backbench members of conscience.

0:25:310:25:38

Eurosceptics have been voting

against the government for the last

0:25:380:25:41

30 years, and nobody on my side of

the argument has ever gone round

0:25:410:25:44

saying they should be expelled from

the party and sent to darkness. It

0:25:440:25:51

is a broad church, it is a

free-market party with a strong

0:25:510:25:55

social conscience, and it has been a

pro-European party for the first 50

0:25:550:26:00

years of my membership.

Thank you

for talking to us, and I'll come

0:26:000:26:04

back to the panel. He says the Prime

Minister was not weakened by that

0:26:040:26:09

vote, and neither was Jeremy Corbyn

emboldened. Is he right?

Not quite

0:26:090:26:11

right. What the vote did was point

out what we all secretly knew. She

0:26:110:26:19

wasn't further weakened by it, she

was weakened by the general election

0:26:190:26:24

result. She was always going to be

in this predicament without a

0:26:240:26:31

majority. That vote reminded

everybody of how weak she is and

0:26:310:26:35

will continue to be as this entire

Parliament passes.

The accusation

0:26:350:26:40

from people like Nadine Dorries is

that this helps Labour and

0:26:400:26:42

intentionally offers in a Corbyn

government is any truth in that?

0:26:420:26:49

There was a perception of truth

because of how close he got to

0:26:490:26:53

number ten, which took us by

surprise on election night, apart

0:26:530:26:56

from you, who got it right. But

equally I think there was a sense

0:26:560:26:59

with Theresa May's own popularity,

and recent polling is said that the

0:26:590:27:05

Conservatives are gaining an Jeremy

Corbyn, which is perhaps explained

0:27:050:27:08

by the fact that people are unclear,

despite numerous explanations by

0:27:080:27:13

Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit

Secretary, on the Labour opposition.

0:27:130:27:16

They appear to have backtracked on

their manifesto and want close

0:27:160:27:20

alignment, if not remaining in the

supermarket and customs union, which

0:27:200:27:23

is anathema to anybody who voted for

Brexit an Jeremy Corbyn and Labour,

0:27:230:27:28

and equally I think it's interesting

that, once we take ourselves out of

0:27:280:27:32

Westminster bubble, some of the talk

on the streets about Theresa May's

0:27:320:27:37

apparent weakness is misplaced. A

lots of people think she has shown

0:27:370:27:41

resilience and they appreciate she

is in a difficult political mess, in

0:27:410:27:45

terms of her lack of a larger

majority and the rest of it, but I

0:27:450:27:48

think she was pity David after

coughing gate, and I think that has

0:27:480:27:56

turned into grudging admiration for

the fact that she has defied the

0:27:560:27:59

people who said it would be

impossible and managed to get to the

0:27:590:28:02

second phase of negotiations.

I

think what we got with the vote was

0:28:020:28:07

recognition that this is a hung

parliament. In a hung Parliament,

0:28:070:28:11

government get defeated. . This is

new to us because we had the

0:28:110:28:17

coalition which a majority and the

Labour and Thatcher landslide eras,

0:28:170:28:25

but in the 70s, the key moments that

Labour government defeated again and

0:28:250:28:28

again, this one will. It's not that

she is inherently weak as a

0:28:280:28:33

personality, she is just in a weak

position. There was a majority

0:28:330:28:37

forming. It probably could have been

bigger. In favour of that amendment

0:28:370:28:41

last week. It will happen again

because the House of Commons is in a

0:28:410:28:48

different place on Europe than she

is.

Briefly.

What was fascinating is

0:28:480:28:54

that Nadine Dorries and those of her

like said, you weakened her, nobody

0:28:540:28:59

will take seriously in Brussels, but

she went and she got love oned. It

0:28:590:29:06

had an inverse effect. -- love oned.

Using weakness as a strength.

0:29:060:29:12

And you can find more Brexit

analysis and explanation on the BBC

0:29:120:29:15

website, at bbc.co.uk/brexit.

0:29:150:29:16

Let's turn now to Labour.

0:29:160:29:17

As 2017 draws to a close they've got

plenty to feel upbeat about,

0:29:170:29:20

although they could have to wait

another four and a half years

0:29:200:29:23

for a chance to form a government.

0:29:230:29:25

The party says it's ready,

but do the public agree?

0:29:250:29:27

Elizabeth Glinka took the entirely

unscientific moodbox

0:29:270:29:30

to the constituency of Warwick

and Leamington, a former

0:29:300:29:32

Conservative seat snatched

by Labour in June.

0:29:320:29:36

This week, Theresa May

faced her first defeat

0:29:370:29:40

in the House of Commons -

and, if you speak to Labour

0:29:400:29:43

activists, they will tell

you a general election could be just

0:29:430:29:45

around the corner, and they are more

than ready to form a government.

0:29:450:29:49

So we've come here to

Warwick Castle to ask people,

0:29:490:29:52

is Labour ready or not ready?

0:29:520:29:55

No, definitely not.

0:29:580:29:59

Why not?

0:29:590:30:00

I don't like the Labour leader.

0:30:000:30:02

It's the first time I've been asked

about politics here in the castle.

0:30:030:30:06

I think they are ready.

0:30:060:30:07

Absolutely not ready.

0:30:070:30:10

They don't seem to have any strong

policies and every time you hear

0:30:100:30:13

them arguing against the Government

they are just negative.

0:30:130:30:16

There's not a positive,

constructive response.

0:30:160:30:19

I came from a country

which was Communist for a long time.

0:30:200:30:23

It terrifies me when I hear

some of their ideas.

0:30:230:30:26

Although I don't like

the other guys, too.

0:30:260:30:28

LAUGHTER.

0:30:280:30:31

Would you say the Labour Party

is ready for government?

0:30:310:30:34

Yes.

0:30:340:30:37

I'll take that as a yes.

0:30:370:30:38

Sorry, Jeremy.

0:30:380:30:40

I remember British Rail

before it was privatised.

0:30:400:30:42

It was dreadful.

0:30:420:30:46

I would say ready.

0:30:460:30:48

I think that the Tory party

are totally focused on Brexit.

0:30:480:30:52

They are not looking at any

of the other problems,

0:30:520:30:55

the NHS, housing, transport,

everything else that's

0:30:550:30:57

going on in the country,

and I think the Labour Party

0:30:570:30:59

would look at those other issues.

0:30:590:31:01

Not ready.

0:31:010:31:02

Not ready.

0:31:020:31:03

They're not clear on their policies

and a lot of infighting,

0:31:030:31:06

so I just don't think they are ready

to be in charge yet.

0:31:060:31:08

Thank you for this.

0:31:090:31:10

That's OK.

0:31:100:31:11

There is never a knight

around when you need one.

0:31:110:31:14

I'd go with ready.

0:31:150:31:16

I think, from what we've got

at the moment, I think

0:31:160:31:19

give them a chance.

0:31:190:31:20

OK, let's go for it then.

0:31:200:31:22

Not ready, maybe because I don't

think the Shadow Chancellor

0:31:220:31:25

is at all suitable.

0:31:250:31:27

They can't do any worse

than what we've already got

0:31:310:31:33

at the moment, so I think time

for a change.

0:31:330:31:36

Would you say the Labour Party is

ready or not ready for government?

0:31:360:31:41

Interesting.

0:31:440:31:45

Not ready.

0:31:450:31:46

Why is that?

0:31:460:31:48

Not ready, because they are still

bickering amongst themselves.

0:31:480:31:50

Because I am fed up

with the Conservative government.

0:31:500:31:52

I feel we need a change.

0:31:520:31:53

OK, so why did you go for not ready?

0:31:530:31:56

I just don't think they have

what it takes just yet.

0:31:560:31:58

Well, only eight more

sleeps till Christmas,

0:31:580:32:00

and I'm afraid Jeremy Corbyn may not

like his present this year.

0:32:000:32:03

The visitors here to Warwick Castle

say that Labour is not

0:32:030:32:05

ready for government.

0:32:050:32:08

Right, better get the rest

of these presents delivered.

0:32:080:32:14

Elizabeth Glinka with

the decidedly unscientific

0:32:140:32:15

moodbox at Warwick Castle.

0:32:150:32:17

Well, I'm joined now

by the shadow justice

0:32:170:32:19

secretary Richard Burgon,

he's in Leeds.

0:32:190:32:25

Good morning.

Good morning, Sarah.

We were told in the summer that

0:32:250:32:31

Jeremy Corbyn reportedly said he

would be Prime Minister by

0:32:310:32:35

Christmas. It doesn't look as though

it is likely to happen. Will he be

0:32:350:32:39

in Number Ten by next Christmas, do

you think?

Who knows, all we can say

0:32:390:32:45

is we will be ready for another

general election when it take place

0:32:450:32:48

and we are ready to go the full

course is that needs to be the case

0:32:480:32:51

as well.

In order to be ready for an

election, it will be important to

0:32:510:32:56

have a clear position on Brexit, and

in fairness the Labour opposition

0:32:560:33:01

there has been some clarity in the

last couple of weeks on bad, and it

0:33:010:33:05

appears the wants to stay much

closer to EU rules and regulations

0:33:050:33:11

than the Conservative Party.

What

Labour wants to do is to reach a

0:33:110:33:14

position where we have a good

relationship with the EU has Brexit,

0:33:140:33:19

because Britain is leaving the

European Union and Labour accepts

0:33:190:33:22

and respect the outcome of the

referendum, and we want a post

0:33:220:33:25

Brexit Britain where the economy and

jobs is put first, not fixated on

0:33:250:33:31

structures. That is the end goal we

want to reach, will return as they

0:33:310:33:34

good trading relationship with the

EU and the rest of the world. --

0:33:340:33:41

where Britain has a good trading

relationship. And we want to protect

0:33:410:33:44

environmental rights and workers as

well.

The Tories would say they are

0:33:440:33:49

interested in those things as well

but there has to be a structure

0:33:490:33:52

around this when we have an in-state

relationship with the EU. Is it fair

0:33:520:33:56

to say you want a closer

relationship than the government is

0:33:560:34:02

arguing for?

We have set out the

vision of what we want in terms of

0:34:020:34:06

Britain post Brexit. The problem

that Theresa May as with negotiating

0:34:060:34:10

is that, at the same time as

negotiating with Brussels, she has

0:34:100:34:14

two negotiate with her backbenchers

and the extreme caucus in the

0:34:140:34:20

Conservative Party who are

ideological fixated on structures

0:34:200:34:23

and the ECJ, and that raised -- that

has really weakened her, as we saw

0:34:230:34:30

in Parliament.

We will have to have

answers on those questions. If you

0:34:300:34:33

say you are ready to form a

government within the next year,

0:34:330:34:38

Labour needs clear answers on these

questions about whether or not you

0:34:380:34:40

would ever consider a continuing

role for the European Court of

0:34:400:34:46

Justice, for instance.

We see it as

common sense that the ECJ should

0:34:460:34:51

play a role in the transition

period...

After that?

We are open

0:34:510:34:59

minded, because every trade deal

these institutions to protect and

0:34:590:35:02

oversee that deal. Seems like common

sense.

Tom Watson has said that he

0:35:020:35:06

wouldn't rule out a second

referendum on Brexit, and Jeremy

0:35:060:35:10

Corbyn a few weeks ago in Lisbon

said something similar. Would you be

0:35:100:35:13

in favour of a second

0:35:130:35:14

in favour of a second referendum?

Labour isn't calling for a second

0:35:150:35:17

referendum.

0:35:170:35:20

referendum.

But Tom Watson said he

wouldn't run it out.

It could be the

0:35:200:35:24

case that Theresa May caves in and

starts

0:35:240:35:28

starts asking for another

referendum, I doubt that we are not

0:35:280:35:31

in government I can say clearly we

are not

0:35:310:35:34

are not arguing for a second

referendum, and I think that was

0:35:340:35:37

made clear on Andrew Marr earlier

today by Diane Abbott.

Whatever the

0:35:370:35:42

end relationship between the UK and

EU, is it important you and to

0:35:420:35:45

Labour that we see lower

0:35:450:35:50

Labour that we see lower levels of

immigration from the EU?

We want to

0:35:500:35:53

put the economy and jobs first and,

if you listen to the public sector

0:35:530:35:57

and the NHS, the care sector, they

are clear that the role EU migrants

0:35:570:36:01

have played and are

0:36:010:36:04

have played and are playing is

essential to growth, essential to

0:36:040:36:06

the private sector, but also

essential to our NHS as well.

0:36:060:36:11

essential to our NHS as well.

That

sounds like you don't want lower

0:36:110:36:14

levels of immigration after we

leave.

We want to put jobs and

0:36:140:36:18

economy first, we want fair and

reasonably

0:36:180:36:21

reasonably managed migration, but

free movement as it is will end when

0:36:210:36:24

Britain leaves the EU and we will

need a new arrangement that is fair

0:36:240:36:28

and reasonably managed.

0:36:280:36:30

and reasonably managed. We want to

put and the public economy first.

0:36:300:36:33

The Conservatives have a bad track

record of

0:36:330:36:40

record of making headline grabbing

false promises on immigration but

0:36:400:36:43

never meeting those targets.

0:36:430:36:46

never meeting those targets.

You are

an enthusiastic supporter of Richard

0:36:460:36:48

Leonard, the new leader of the

Scottish Labour Party. You have

0:36:480:36:52

called him an inspiring socialist in

the past. Are you hoping the UK

0:36:520:36:55

Labour manifesto will copy some of

his rather more radical Labour

0:36:550:36:59

ideas?

It is for the Scottish Labour

Party to decide Scottish policy.

But

0:36:590:37:05

do you want to some of his ideas

replicated nationwide?

0:37:050:37:11

replicated nationwide?

We agree on

most things, and Richard

0:37:110:37:14

most things, and Richard Leonard

supported the UK wide manifesto in

0:37:140:37:19

2011, he enthusiastically supported

the minimum wage rise, taking

0:37:190:37:21

railways back into public ownership.

0:37:210:37:25

railways back into public ownership.

What about the idea for a one-off

0:37:250:37:27

wealth tax, 1% of the total wealth

of the richest 10% being paid?

0:37:270:37:33

of the richest 10% being paid?

That

is a matter for the Scottish Labour

0:37:330:37:35

Party.

But would you like the same

thing adopted nationwide?

Our

0:37:350:37:43

manifesto isn't decided by Shadow

Cabinet members making

0:37:430:37:47

Cabinet members making declarations

on the Sunday Politics.

But you are

0:37:470:37:49

allowed a view.

0:37:490:37:52

allowed a view.

Our manifesto was

reached on a consensus basis, not

0:37:520:37:57

only the Shadow Cabinet and

Parliamentary Labour Party but with

0:37:570:37:59

members all over the country. We are

now the biggest political party in

0:37:590:38:03

Western Europe. It will be for me to

be making policy decisions live on

0:38:030:38:07

air.

0:38:070:38:09

air. We believe in the politics of

consensus and collectivism and we

0:38:090:38:12

will be taking that forward with our

next manifesto.

0:38:120:38:16

next manifesto.

Some viewers may not

know that, as well as being a Labour

0:38:160:38:20

MP, you present a heavy metal show

on your local radio station, so we

0:38:200:38:23

have a click to listen to.

0:38:230:38:24

The new album of Vallenfyre

is called Fear Those Who Fear Him,

0:38:240:38:27

and it's so heavy, it feels painful

to listen to, in a good way.

0:38:270:38:30

Let's see if you agree.

0:38:300:38:32

This song is by Vallenfyre and it's

called An Apathetic Grave.

0:38:320:38:35

METAL GUITAR RIFF.

0:38:350:38:40

MUSIC: An Apathetic

Grave by Vallentyre.

0:38:400:38:48

Clearly, you are a big heavy metal

band. Jeremy Corbyn told the NME you

0:38:480:38:52

listen to everything from

0:38:520:38:54

listen to everything from Mahler to

piped music, but he has never

0:38:540:38:56

mentioned heavy metal. Can you

introduce him to some of your

0:38:560:38:59

favourite tracks?

0:38:590:39:03

favourite tracks?

I could do. Jeremy

has been on the front page of

0:39:030:39:06

Kerrang, and what was nice was that

he didn't pretend to like heavy

0:39:060:39:09

metal. It's good he set that. Far

more refreshing than when David

0:39:090:39:13

Cameron used to pretend to like the

Smiths.

0:39:130:39:16

It's coming up to 11:40,

you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:39:160:39:17

And, remember this?

0:39:190:39:23

We have agreed that the government

should call a general election.

0:39:230:39:24

Good morning and welcome

to Sunday Politics Scotland.

0:39:240:39:26

Coming up on the programme...

0:39:260:39:28

What's going wrong

with Scotland's economy

0:39:280:39:30

and can it be fixed?

0:39:300:39:32

And we'll take a look back

on what's been another

0:39:320:39:34

helluva year in Politics.

0:39:340:39:39

Ruth Davidson has predicted we have

hit peak and the only way is down.

0:39:390:39:46

This party... Hello!

0:39:460:39:48

Hello and welcome to the programme.

0:39:480:39:50

This week, for the first time

since its inception,

0:39:500:39:52

the Scottish Government announced

plans to raise taxes.

0:39:520:39:54

It's been decades since any

UK administration has

0:39:540:39:57

raised income tax, so this

is a big gamble politically.

0:39:570:40:00

Then again, there was little choice,

as this is the only tax

0:40:000:40:03

raising power Holyrood has.

0:40:030:40:05

But something else

happened this week -

0:40:050:40:08

we also learnt the diabolical

predictions for economic growth -

0:40:080:40:13

0.7% next year, that's half

the predictions for the UK

0:40:130:40:15

as a whole, and it doesn't get much

better for five years.

0:40:150:40:18

These dreadful figures came

from the independent

0:40:180:40:20

Scottish Fiscal Commission,

set up by the Scottish government to

0:40:200:40:23

scrutinise their own tax forecasts.

0:40:230:40:25

Here's the Chair, Susan Rice.

0:40:250:40:31

Bob, six months on, and only 42

households have moved

0:40:310:40:35

into permanent new homes.

0:40:350:40:37

There are a couple of underlying

factors we think are the main forces

0:40:370:40:41

at play. One of them is what's

called productivity, so the value of

0:40:410:40:47

what is produced for every hour

worked this in simple terms. We've

0:40:470:40:49

had loads relativity in Scotland and

low productivity growth in the UK

0:40:490:40:56

and another of other countries for

number of years but in Scotland and

0:40:560:41:00

specifically productivity growth has

been flat for well over ten years

0:41:000:41:06

and that has a huge impact on the

growth of the economy overall. The

0:41:060:41:11

other important factor is the shape

of our population. The population

0:41:110:41:15

isn't growing or growing minimally

going forward but growth might come

0:41:150:41:21

in age group of 65 and above and we

are seeing a shrieking population in

0:41:210:41:26

the 16 to 64-year-old age group.

That has a direct impact on what

0:41:260:41:31

happens economically.

0:41:310:41:34

There are a lot of factors which

impact on private sector behaviour

0:41:380:41:44

and it isn't the figure so much,

it's really what underlies that so

0:41:440:41:48

what underlies that is the number of

uncertainties and we have pointed

0:41:480:41:52

out in our report, there are

uncertainties around the oil and gas

0:41:520:42:00

sector as it continues to adapt to a

lower price for its product and

0:42:000:42:05

various other uncertainties. That's

what will impact business and

0:42:050:42:11

behaviours and decisions others

make.

0:42:110:42:13

That's a really big question, it's

an important question and honestly,

0:42:180:42:21

time will tell. I think that the 1p

is a modest increase and the

0:42:210:42:30

judgment we made is that a lot of

people will live with that. That

0:42:300:42:34

money should go to supporting

services in Scotland. People speak

0:42:340:42:37

often about the standard of living

here, how they like living here, so

0:42:370:42:44

it's important that money is funded

into services but I think to answer

0:42:440:42:48

your question directly, it's ready

hard to say now how this will play

0:42:480:42:51

out. We will be watching.

0:42:510:42:54

That was Susan Rice, chair

of the Scottish Fiscal Committee,

0:42:540:42:56

whose report helped shape

Derek Mackay's budget.

0:42:560:42:58

Now, a little earlier I spoke

to the economist David Bell.

0:42:580:43:02

I'm not sure what word, David

Powell, we could use other economic

0:43:020:43:08

forecast that the Scottish Fiscal

Commission is making, but pretty

0:43:080:43:12

awful, would that sound about right

-- Steven Bell.

They are pretty low

0:43:120:43:23

forecasts, which suggest the

Scottish economy is not going to

0:43:230:43:25

pick up from the pretty low

refectory it's experienced all the

0:43:250:43:30

time since the financial crash. Hush

macro low project tree.

One

0:43:300:43:36

mitigating factor is part of the

problem is the population not

0:43:360:43:41

growing so what that means is the

difference between growth in the UK

0:43:410:43:45

and in Scotland is not as dramatic

as the difference in growth per

0:43:450:43:48

capita.

Yes, that's true. That's

certainly true in the great per

0:43:480:43:53

capita but the issue that Susan Rice

was talking about in terms of the

0:43:530:43:59

gradual shrinking of the working age

population hasn't really kicked in

0:43:590:44:02

yet. It will kick in in quite a big

way over the next ten years or so

0:44:020:44:06

and it will be important for the

Scottish Government to be looking at

0:44:060:44:10

policies to try to extend people.

Working

0:44:100:44:17

Working lives -- people's working

lives so that the people who work

0:44:170:44:21

beyond 65 is increased.

The most

surprisingly I thought in the

0:44:210:44:24

document Susan Rice produced ago

with the budget was that Derek

0:44:240:44:27

Mackay made much of the budget

being, I'll use his words, "It would

0:44:270:44:35

prioritise economic growth." But

halfway through the document she

0:44:350:44:38

concludes that the budget measures,

the phrase she uses, will have no

0:44:380:44:44

significant aggregate impact on the

Scottish economy. So, prioritising

0:44:440:44:47

economic growth will have no effect

whatsoever on economic growth.

0:44:470:44:54

That's a bit of a paradox I think.

The short-term levers that

0:44:540:44:59

government has to increase economic

growth are limited, so an annual

0:44:590:45:04

object that you don't expect

actually to make a huge difference

0:45:040:45:10

to overall economic growth. It's the

longer term things that you put in

0:45:100:45:14

place for improved infrastructure,

broad brand for example, and

0:45:140:45:19

increasing skills, that are probably

the counter policies that are most

0:45:190:45:26

likely to lead, albeit in the long

term, the increased economic growth.

0:45:260:45:31

Is there any different approach they

could have taken that you think

0:45:310:45:36

might have had a better chance of

growing the economy?

Well, they are

0:45:360:45:44

putting their foot in the water as

far as changing the structure of

0:45:440:45:46

income tax is concerned, so they

have made income tax in Scotland

0:45:460:45:52

slightly more progressive than that

in the UK as a whole but not much

0:45:520:45:58

and not by all that much. They have

announced a number of measures,

0:45:580:46:03

which are more on the back burner

around improving broadband and there

0:46:030:46:09

is a big capital programme but the

results for these kind of

0:46:090:46:14

investments went the scene probably

within this Parliament.

Very

0:46:140:46:22

briefly, David, one of the bigger

ticket issues that Susan Rice argues

0:46:220:46:28

is that she argues partly that for

various reasons economic growth has

0:46:280:46:31

been lower over the last few years

in Scotland than it appeared to be

0:46:310:46:36

but that for partly the same

reasons, the implication seems to be

0:46:360:46:39

that even if things got back to

normal, in inverted commas, normal

0:46:390:46:44

growth in the Scottish economy will

now be about half what it was for

0:46:440:46:49

the half-century before the

financial crash.

I think that's

0:46:490:46:52

true. I mean, if you compare the

decade before 2008 and the decade

0:46:520:46:58

since, the comparison in terms of

economic performance is stark and

0:46:580:47:06

Susan Rice mentioned that many

countries have been affected in the

0:47:060:47:09

same way but it seems that Scotland

has been particularly affected and

0:47:090:47:14

really we need to find out why

that's the case, why its economic

0:47:140:47:17

growth has been at the bottom end of

the set of countries who have been

0:47:170:47:23

exposed to globalisation, to huge

changes in technology and so on over

0:47:230:47:29

the last decade, why has Scotland,

why is at the bottom end of economic

0:47:290:47:35

performance among small developed

countries?

Steven Bell, thanks very

0:47:350:47:41

much.

0:47:410:47:43

I'm joined now by the SNP's

Ivan McKee a member of the Scottish

0:47:430:47:46

Parliament's Finance Committee,

and in Edinburgh is the Conservative

0:47:460:47:49

Dean Lockhart who is a member

of the Economy Committee.

0:47:490:47:52

Well, Ivan McKee, this thing about

economic growth, Derek Mackay said

0:47:520:48:00

he would prioritise economic growth

in his budget and the conclusion of

0:48:000:48:04

the Scottish Fiscal Commission is

not just that the budget will have

0:48:040:48:09

no affect on economic growth at all

this year but it will have no effect

0:48:090:48:13

over the five years that they are

forecasting.

You also heard David

0:48:130:48:19

talk about the fact these things

take time and it's a longer time to

0:48:190:48:24

look at.

I get the point it's not an

immediate effect, let me read if to

0:48:240:48:30

you, she said the policies announced

in the draft budget are not expected

0:48:300:48:35

to have a significant impact on the

economy over the five-year forecast

0:48:350:48:38

period. I take your point about some

of these things are long-term

0:48:380:48:41

outcome that you know, for a budget

that was prioritising growth to

0:48:410:48:46

produce no growth seems a

contradiction.

The biggest issues

0:48:460:48:49

you identify if -- the biggest issue

she identifies is Scotland's

0:48:490:48:56

population change and The Big Issue

driving that is Brexit and if you

0:48:560:49:00

look at the numbers, they have used

an aggressive assumption on

0:49:000:49:06

population growth, which is more

constrained than that used than they

0:49:060:49:09

are down south so they are talking

about Scotland being impacted more

0:49:090:49:16

by the population issue caused by

Brexit in the rest of the UK and

0:49:160:49:20

that's an issue causing the problems

of growth.

But Derek Mackay knew

0:49:200:49:25

that before he published his budget

so why did he then say he would

0:49:250:49:28

prioritise economic growth when he

must've known for the reasons you

0:49:280:49:30

have given us, actually has budget

wouldn't have any effect.

That's not

0:49:300:49:34

true because unfortunately we don't

have any control over Brexit, it was

0:49:340:49:39

up to us we would be in the single

market and driving population growth

0:49:390:49:43

through that mechanism but that's

not open to us. If you look at the

0:49:430:49:46

quotes from business leaders and the

CBI, they are welcoming what been

0:49:460:49:52

done and the steps being taken to

simulate growth...

But it won't have

0:49:520:50:00

any effect on growth stock yellow --

when you say look in the round...?

0:50:000:50:10

The situation would be worse if we

hadn't done this and that's what

0:50:100:50:13

you're hearing.

0:50:130:50:19

Is your argument there may be no

economic growth because of the

0:50:190:50:22

budget?

What that report talks

about, it talks about the gross you

0:50:220:50:28

have spoken about in that statement

and the impact of population.

0:50:280:50:33

Population growth or the constraint

on it in Scotland is a huge factor.

0:50:330:50:39

My point is Derek Mackay knew that.

Unfortunately we cannot bend Brexit

0:50:390:50:44

otherwise we would.

0:50:440:50:51

otherwise we would. Broadband, David

Bell highlighted and the huge

0:50:510:50:54

investment by the Scottish

Government.

What do you make of the

0:50:540:50:58

idea that a budget of growth is no

growth?

These things take time, the

0:50:580:51:04

SNP have had ten years to grow the

Scottish economy, over that time the

0:51:040:51:11

Scottish economy has underperformed.

On the budget, what Susan Rae said,

0:51:110:51:16

low productivity was one of the key

factors. You increase skills and the

0:51:160:51:24

economy. This budget has made

Scotland the highest tax part of

0:51:240:51:28

Scotland for a skilled workers.

Every leading business organisation

0:51:280:51:34

has advised against it. We will see

the skills gap widening and that

0:51:340:51:40

will have a cumulative effect on

productivity.

If Ivan McKee is

0:51:400:51:46

contradicting what Susan Rice said,

then you are. The fiscal commission

0:51:460:51:50

came to the conclusion that the

relatively small increases in tax

0:51:500:51:54

would not have the deterrent effect

that you have described.

That

0:51:540:51:59

remains to be seen. It is relatively

small when you look at it on an

0:51:590:52:04

individual basis. Leading

organisations have said that

0:52:040:52:10

Scotland is lower than the rest of

the UK. Higher tax means less money

0:52:100:52:13

to spend in the economy and that

will have a negative impact on the

0:52:130:52:19

economy. This will result on

business costs in Scotland being

0:52:190:52:22

higher than elsewhere in the UK.

All

right. The other thing a lot of

0:52:220:52:29

people, a lot of people will have to

pay this tax will make them think

0:52:290:52:33

twice that, that in her document,

Susan Rice forecast that tax

0:52:330:52:39

revenues in the 18-19 year, they

will be lower than those forecast by

0:52:390:52:46

the old BR before taxes went up.

Which produced less revenues, or

0:52:460:52:54

maybe they would have been higher if

you had not put the taxes up.

They

0:52:540:52:57

will be a forecast on UK level. But

they also did one for Scotland. But

0:52:570:53:04

they also did... Taxes will be up by

500 million next year, income tax. I

0:53:040:53:13

come back to the point, it is

ridiculous to suggest that for the

0:53:130:53:19

sake of £2 a week someone will not

move to Scotland where they get free

0:53:190:53:25

tuition fees for university

education, free prescriptions.

0:53:250:53:28

Looking at skills, we are investing

9% in real terms for further

0:53:280:53:36

education colleges in Scotland and a

huge investment in two steps to work

0:53:360:53:41

on employability schemes to get

people back into work. The

0:53:410:53:45

investment in skills and training

from the Scottish Government is a

0:53:450:53:48

significant part to see what we have

done to boost economic growth in

0:53:480:53:52

this budget.

Is it? The SNP are long

and policy, in terms of the economy

0:53:520:54:00

and policy, in terms of the economy

-- effects on the economy, the

0:54:000:54:02

figures speak for themselves.

To be

clear, I think the point the SSC is

0:54:020:54:08

making that tax revenues will be

lower than very expected by the OBR

0:54:080:54:19

a month ago, not because the

Scottish Government have put up

0:54:190:54:23

taxes, but lower than expected

economic growth. That has more

0:54:230:54:26

effect than what you do with the tax

rate.

I agree. If over the next five

0:54:260:54:33

years, growth in Scotland could

match the UK, then public spending

0:54:330:54:37

in Scotland would have an extra £2

billion. This increased by the SNP

0:54:370:54:42

has increased 116 million pounds for

the budget. But if you had a

0:54:420:54:48

commitment to economic growth, you

are looking at an extra £2 billion

0:54:480:54:53

for a Scottish public services in

the next five years.

That is our

0:54:530:54:57

absolute priority. Give me a idea of

what they should have done which

0:54:570:55:00

would make the economy grow faster

and bring in more tax revenue?

We

0:55:000:55:05

would like to see the Scottish

Government work closely with the UK

0:55:050:55:09

Government on their economic

strategy.

0:55:090:55:16

strategy. If the Scottish Government

could really get Scotland to the

0:55:160:55:19

front and central of the UK

industrial strategy, we would see a

0:55:190:55:24

good improvement in the economy.

You

are defending the SNP. You are a

0:55:240:55:29

former business person. If they had

called you and said, one thing we

0:55:290:55:33

could do that we have not thought

of, what would it be?

For business

0:55:330:55:38

issues, it would be skills. We have

talking about investment in

0:55:380:55:45

broadband and transport. The other

focus is the Manufacturing Institute

0:55:450:55:49

which will give a boost to hide --

manufacturing. That is what is

0:55:490:55:57

important. The tax situation, a lot

of that is due to what we have had

0:55:570:56:02

to...

Even though the have said it

will have nothing to do for economic

0:56:020:56:09

growth. -- SFC.

That is not what

Derek Mackay said.

That is what he

0:56:090:56:21

has done.

Even though there is no

growth? Within the constraints of

0:56:210:56:26

Westminster, and Brexit fishing the

population in the right direction.

0:56:260:56:32

Given the limited hand he has got to

play with, I think he has done the

0:56:320:56:36

best they can.

We will have to leave

it there. Thank you both very much.

0:56:360:56:41

In recent times that old adage,

"A week is a long time

0:56:410:56:44

in politics" has become

somewhat obsolete -

0:56:440:56:45

it's more like a day now.

0:56:450:56:47

Nevertheless, given it's close

to the end of the year,

0:56:470:56:49

we've put together a taster

of what's happened so far.

0:56:490:56:54

Tonight, reporting Scotland live

from Edinburgh. It is game on, the

0:56:540:57:00

First Minister announces plans for a

second independence referendum.

Our

0:57:000:57:04

efforts of compromise have been met

with a brick wall of intransigence.

0:57:040:57:09

The First Minister signs a letter

to...

There were no abstentions, the

0:57:090:57:18

motion as amended is therefore

agreed.

Applause, cheers but a

0:57:180:57:24

solemn looking First Minister,

perhaps pondering the challenges

0:57:240:57:28

ahead.

No is not the time. Now is

not the time.

No is not the time.

0:57:280:57:35

When is the right time? No is not

the time. I have just chaired a

0:57:350:57:41

meeting of the cabinet where we

agreed that the government should

0:57:410:57:45

call a general election to be held

on the 8th of June.

General

0:57:450:57:50

election. You are joking? Not

another one?

I love elections. I do

0:57:500:57:57

not know if you could tell from the

last election, I love myself. I love

0:57:570:58:02

the campaign we were running.

That

was a Freudian slip. It is good to

0:58:020:58:08

have a boost on the campaign trail

with you. How are you getting on so

0:58:080:58:13

far?

Thank you for everything you

have done for Scottish

0:58:130:58:17

Conservatives.

It will be a huge

challenge for Nicola Sturgeon's

0:58:170:58:20

party. The only way is down. This

party... Hello!

0:58:200:58:31

party... Hello!

It is exactly ten

o'clock. The exit poll for BBC, ITV

0:58:310:58:36

and sky suggest the Conservatives

will be the largest party after the

0:58:360:58:41

2017 general election. But if it is

correct, Theresa May will be short

0:58:410:58:46

of an overall majority and that is

not the result she hoped for when

0:58:460:58:49

she called the snap election.

I

hereby declare that Theresa May has

0:58:490:58:58

been duly elected.

My pictures

simple, I am Theresa May and I think

0:58:580:59:06

I am the best person to lead my

constituency. It is a choice between

0:59:060:59:12

strong and stable leadership under

the Conservatives. We delivered that

0:59:120:59:17

strong and stable leadership. We

delivered the certainty that strong

0:59:170:59:21

and stable leadership can give. It

is about strong and stable

0:59:210:59:25

leadership in the national interest.

It is just people can listen to this

0:59:250:59:31

that kind of thing and think it is

robotic.

It is... Nothing has

0:59:310:59:39

changed. Nothing has changed. When

future generations look back at this

0:59:390:59:45

time, they will judge us not only by

the decisions that may make, but by

0:59:450:59:50

what we made that decision.

Tonight

on reporting Scotland from

0:59:500:59:58

Westminster, the SNP are under

pressure to rule out a second

0:59:581:00:02

independence referendum after losing

more than a third of their seats.

1:00:021:00:05

They remain Scotland's biggest

party, but some of the biggest names

1:00:051:00:09

have gone.

You have not seen the

last of my bonnets and me.

We will

1:00:091:00:19

reflect on these results. We will

listen to voters and we will

1:00:191:00:24

consider very carefully the best way

forward for Scotland.

She ran on the

1:00:241:00:30

second referendum and that was a

gift to the Tory party and the

1:00:301:00:34

Labour Party.

Indyref 2 is dead. We

will not seek to introduce the

1:00:341:00:41

legislation foreign independence

referendum immediately. Instead we

1:00:411:00:44

will, in good faith, redouble our

efforts on Twitter shoulder to the

1:00:441:00:49

wheel in effort to influence the

Brexit talks for Scotland's

1:00:491:00:56

interest.

Boris, job done there.

Give her the P 45. Labour will

1:00:561:01:06

deliver I've written for the many,

not the few. -- the Britain.

News is

1:01:061:01:20

coming in that Kezia Dugdale has

resigned as leader of the Scottish

1:01:201:01:25

Labour Party with immediate effect.

I did not know Kezia Dugdale was

1:01:251:01:29

going to resign until about ten or

15 minutes before she announced

1:01:291:01:32

that.

Was there a plot against you?

I do not know. There was a

1:01:321:01:39

conversation suggesting there was a

plot. I am not interested in that. I

1:01:391:01:43

will do what I was elected to do.

Crickets and cockroaches. Beautiful.

1:01:431:01:52

No!

1:01:521:01:58

No!

Don't you think you will be

remembered for your time in the

1:01:581:02:02

jungle for drinking a milkshake of

ostrich and pig heinous is and

1:02:021:02:08

calling -- crawling through fish

guts?

You might not like that very

1:02:081:02:14

much, it is considered light

entertainment.

1:02:141:02:27

# FRom Russia with love.

1:02:281:02:33

Hello and welcome to the very first

episode of the Alex Salmond show.

1:02:331:02:38

That look back was put

together by Graham Stewart.

1:02:421:02:44

Well, after such a jam-packed year,

I've got three people

1:02:441:02:47

here with me to discuss it -

the editor of

1:02:471:02:50

The Big Issue, Paul McNamee,

1:02:501:02:51

and the journalists Pennie Taylor

and Jenni Davidson.

1:02:511:02:58

First let's just talk about the

budget, Penny. What did you make of

1:02:581:03:04

all the changes to tax?

I think

what's really struck me most is how

1:03:041:03:09

many people in Scotland I am

encountering have welcomed the rise

1:03:091:03:15

on the basis that it goes on to

improving public services. However,

1:03:151:03:19

they will want to see results from

that. With 3.5 years left until the

1:03:191:03:25

next Scottish election, it is a

tight timescale.

Yes.

It does break

1:03:251:03:30

the mould a little bit?

Yes. It

does. There has been a taboo and

1:03:301:03:36

written about raising income tax and

that has been broken?

People in

1:03:361:03:40

Scotland, in many areas of Scotland

and many people, have been saying we

1:03:401:03:45

need to raise taxes to pay for our

public services.

They don't

1:03:451:03:50

necessarily vote for it.

As the SNP

discovered. Time will tell. It has

1:03:501:03:56

been described as a tentative tax

rise. Is it a tool in the water for

1:03:561:04:01

more to come?

What did you of it,

Jenny?

It was an astute move. We

1:04:011:04:06

knew taxes would have to rise. There

is a hole in the revenue budget in

1:04:061:04:11

terms of the block grant the

Scottish Government gets from the UK

1:04:111:04:14

Government. They are down 219

million. They will want to make a

1:04:141:04:21

lot of cuts which would be

unpopular. They will have to go down

1:04:211:04:25

the unpopular rid of raising tax.

They will have a similar hall next

1:04:251:04:29

year. Does this go on indefinitely?

year. Does this go on indefinitely?

1:04:291:04:35

-- Semler hole.

Indeed. Yeah. I am

not sure. We will have to see some

1:04:351:04:44

of this growth, but in terms of

dealing with that in the short-term,

1:04:441:04:49

it was quite clear they had to be

something done that they were making

1:04:491:04:52

noises towards a tax increase. This

has been very, very clever in terms

1:04:521:04:59

of managing to increase taxes but

also be seen to try and the crease

1:04:591:05:03

taxes at the same time, 55% of tax

is being paid by Scots, but equally

1:05:031:05:12

those who are paying more, for many

people it is a little bit more,

1:05:121:05:18

maybe tens of pounds a month. So

getting the balance of being able to

1:05:181:05:22

make a change to tax that is broadly

welcome, that has avoided the scare

1:05:221:05:27

stories that were being raised and

being put up, from 45p to 55p in the

1:05:271:05:37

pound. People leaving Scotland, mass

economic exodus.

1:05:371:05:40

What needs to be worried about in

the future, you are right, the

1:05:441:05:48

fiscal commission has concluded that

the small taxes being raised when

1:05:481:05:53

have that effect but the more you

put them up, unless they are put up

1:05:531:05:57

in the rest of the UK, the more that

effect kicks in.

And they aren't big

1:05:571:06:03

enough to address the shortfall. I

was surprised in the budget there

1:06:031:06:06

was no specific reference to social

care in Scotland. Yes, there was

1:06:061:06:10

talk about more money for the NHS

but the area that is under severe

1:06:101:06:13

pressure here that really matters to

people and their families is social

1:06:131:06:16

care.

Paul, what did you make of the

budget?

I thought it was very

1:06:161:06:24

nuanced, it was canny in that it

played to the idea that the caring

1:06:241:06:31

Scott once to show that they can

help

1:06:311:06:38

help those who need help without

clobbering them for a lot of extra

1:06:381:06:41

money. I think next if people want

results. They want to see where that

1:06:411:06:44

money is going and I also feel that

when it comes to the vote for the

1:06:441:06:48

members of the coalition when they

need to put this through Parliament

1:06:481:06:52

will say hold on, we want to see

some of it going on particular

1:06:521:06:55

areas.

The Greens have said they

want £100 million the council.

£14

1:06:551:07:02

million excess, which in

governmental terms is nothing, so

1:07:021:07:06

then you begin to say...

If these

commission figures are accurate,

1:07:061:07:15

they are forecasting slightly lower

tax ironing because he would

1:07:151:07:18

hundreds 60 boys extra money raised

by the tax increases but -- they are

1:07:181:07:25

forecasting slightly lower tax

because the 164 is extra money

1:07:251:07:32

raised by the tax increases.

When

the rises start coming through, that

1:07:321:07:37

will hurt people, so there will be

demands on the key thing --

1:07:371:07:46

degreasing incomes so a small tax

rise might not be enough.

We should

1:07:461:07:52

make the point, average incomes will

not start to rise until sometime in

1:07:521:07:58

the 2020 ball.

Not just in Scotland,

they are stagnating across Britain.

1:07:581:08:06

And indeed beyond. Brexit, Theresa

May, she's done a bit better over

1:08:061:08:11

the last few weeks.

G seems to have

done but I don't know that I am

1:08:111:08:16

alone in thinking this is as clear

as mud. Where does it go from here?

1:08:161:08:20

We hear the tricky stuff starts now.

It sounded like the past year or so

1:08:201:08:24

was pretty tricky. I think there's a

lot of us sitting here with

1:08:241:08:29

everything crossed, wanting to trust

that this process will bring us out

1:08:291:08:37

the other end less badly beaten

perhaps than we might be when we

1:08:371:08:43

look at the fiscal report and it is

talking about a people of working

1:08:431:08:47

age, vast increasing numbers of

people older than working age. We

1:08:471:08:51

have got serious issues I find

scary.

In defence of this perceived

1:08:511:08:57

chaos, it's a negotiation. There

will always be grandstanding,

1:08:571:09:05

crises, last-minute meetings but I

suppose Theresa May can say here we

1:09:051:09:08

are, exactly where I wanted to be by

now, which is that we have maybe not

1:09:081:09:16

in agreement on a transition period

but we have got the first stage

1:09:161:09:19

over.

Surprisingly enough, they have

actually made progress because it

1:09:191:09:24

seemed for a while nothing would

happen and it was a wall or two

1:09:241:09:31

conflicting points that just

couldn't actually be resolved and we

1:09:311:09:37

just hit something that couldn't go

any further over Ireland in

1:09:371:09:40

particular. Then surprisingly

enough, as Penny says, it's

1:09:401:09:45

completely unclear what they've

actually decided and talking about

1:09:451:09:50

alignment and in what way alignment

is different from being...

It's too

1:09:501:09:56

near Christmas, let's not get into

that!

Theresa May got a standing

1:09:561:10:00

ovation from European leaders. They

have moved on to talking about

1:10:001:10:03

things like trade and security and

future relationships so its progress

1:10:031:10:07

and I never expected to see this

side.

Some of the things the fiscal

1:10:071:10:12

commission says, as Ivan Mackay was

pointing out, arguably it goes to

1:10:121:10:22

the need to go to differential

immigration policy across the UK and

1:10:221:10:26

for the Scottish Government to have

powers of its own in that regard. Do

1:10:261:10:29

you think that will come a big issue

in the next few is?

I do. You saw

1:10:291:10:35

both poles of in your earlier

interview, the Conservatives are

1:10:351:10:38

looking for growth in productivity

through retraining and making the

1:10:381:10:43

workforce more productive and SMP

are saying we need more people

1:10:431:10:47

invited in in order to increase the

volume of people who can do the jobs

1:10:471:10:51

and that, when it gets down to it,

that will become the core of Brexit

1:10:511:10:55

because in the Brexit supporting

areas, people coming in and taking

1:10:551:11:01

jobs, that comes back time and time

again for the reason they voted for

1:11:011:11:05

Brexit and if it starts to look as

though that is one of the problems

1:11:051:11:09

with our economy because we can't

get them in, you can't say... If you

1:11:091:11:14

looked difficult to resolve things

up until now, that really just

1:11:141:11:16

begins to look insoluble.

Sexual

harassment was a big issue later on

1:11:161:11:24

in the year in both Westminster and

Holyrood. I was struck today that

1:11:241:11:29

there is a piece by Jess Phillips,

Labour MP in the Observer where she

1:11:291:11:33

says look, I go round in Westminster

everyday brushing against coming up

1:11:331:11:39

against men whom I'm sure have been

accused of serious sexual

1:11:391:11:43

harassment. Sometimes I find women

MPs crying on the phone telling me

1:11:431:11:48

about what has happened and nothing

is happening, unlike Hollywood,

1:11:481:11:51

unlike some of the corporations

where this has become an issue and

1:11:511:11:56

some of the TV shows, particularly

in America. She says nothing has

1:11:561:12:01

been done.

It has got to start

happening. These stories are not

1:12:011:12:04

going to go away. I think all of us

know if people perhaps deserved to

1:12:041:12:11

have thing is pointed at them that

haven't yet been pointed. We will

1:12:111:12:14

wait and see how you and holds --

unfolds but it has be taken, it

1:12:141:12:20

cannot go back to business as usual

and things to revert as they have

1:12:201:12:23

been because it is absolutely not

acceptable and in this year has

1:12:231:12:28

taught us anything, surely it is

that.

You cover Holyrood a lot, is

1:12:281:12:33

your impression that the problem is

perhaps less acute than is in

1:12:331:12:37

Westminster or are they doing more

or less in Holyrood to combat it?

In

1:12:371:12:43

Holyrood it is less acute, that's

not to say it's not there, it's in

1:12:431:12:47

all workplaces I think everywhere

but generally it's not part of the

1:12:471:12:51

culture in the way it seems to be at

Westminster where it's really

1:12:511:12:55

endemic, accepted, considered the

norm, in fact, from what we can

1:12:551:13:00

understand where is in Holyrood,

they are actually also making very

1:13:001:13:04

definite attempts to make change.

Can you do it into a crew of three

1:13:041:13:08

words, what would you like to see

next year?

Social care, attention on

1:13:081:13:15

that and something done about the

plight of people in Scotland and not

1:13:151:13:20

to ignore social care.

More on

poverty, Universal Credit, lifting

1:13:201:13:24

people away from food banks.

Do you

mean an increase in Universal Credit

1:13:241:13:30

or get rid of it?

Just sort out the

issues and delays.

Happy Brexit.

1:13:301:13:38

Right, that sounds like an easy one

to achieve!

1:13:381:13:42

That's it.

1:13:421:13:43

I'll be back with Politics Scotland

on Wednesday afternoon.

1:13:431:13:45

The Sunday Politics will

be back in January -

1:13:451:13:47

until then, have a very Merry

Christmas and a Happy New Year.

1:13:471:13:50

Goodbye.

1:13:501:13:54

Sarah Smith and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate. The political panel comprises Camilla Tominey, Steve Richards and Tom Newton-Dunn. Topics include Brexit and the past year in politics.


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