17/12/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland

Morning, everyone,

and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

I'm Sarah Smith.

And for the last time in 2017,

this is your guide to the big

political stories making the news

this Sunday morning.

Theresa May says she's silenced

the doubters by securing a deal

for Britain in the first phase

of the Brexit negotations.

Now attention turns to the much

bigger task of deciding our future

relationship with the EU.

She'll be discussing that

with her cabinet this week,

but with so many huge unresolved

questions about life after Brexit,

can we possibly expect

seasonal goodwill to break out

across the Tory party

and the country?

And I'm here at stunning Warwick

Castle to find out whether people

here think that Labour are ready

or not ready for government,

And on Sunday Politics Scotland

at 11.35am, as well as a look back

over the year, we'll be asking

what's going wrong with our economy

and can it be fixed?

All that coming up in the programme,

our final show of the year.

Think of it as

our early Christmas present,

one I'm afraid you can't

take back to the shops.

And joining me today,

Fleet Street's answer

to Santa's little helpers,

Tom Newton Dunn,

Camilla Tominey and Steve Richards.

Well, we began the year

talking about Brexit,

and we'll finish talking about...

you've guessed it, Brexit.

And there have been big developments

in just the past week,

which saw Theresa May go from hero

to zero, to somewhere in between.

Seasonal goodwill spread

through the Conservative Party

on Monday, when Theresa May reported

back to Parliament on her deal to

move Brexit talks on to phase two.

When people like me, Brexiteers,

look at the alternative,

namely the Labour government,

a Labour government staying

in the single market forever

and having no control over

immigration, it's amazing

how our minds are concentrated

in support of the Prime Minister.

Across these benches,

complete unanimity

in congratulating the Prime Minister

on securing this agreement.

That Christmas cheer

did not last long.

On the eve of the European

summit to ratify the deal,

the EU Withdrawal Bill was

back in the Commons.

The Government avoided defeat

on several amendments,

but then came former

Attorney General Dominic Grieve

and his call for MPs

to have a meaningful vote

on the final Brexit deal.

Brexit Secretary David Davis

tried to head off the rebellion

with a letter to backbenchers.

In the final hour,

there was a last-ditch offer.

It wasn't enough.

It's too late. I'm sorry.

You cannot, you cannot treat

the House in this fashion.

The Prime Minister suffered

her first defeat on government

business of her premiership.

The ayes to the right, 309.

The noes to the left, 305.

Labour were delighted.

The Prime Minister tried a power

grab, tried to push through the EU

Withdrawal Bill without proper

Parliamentary scrutiny and take

powers away from Parliament.

Parliament resisted tonight.

Brexit supporters were enraged.

One rebel, Stephen Hammond,

was promptly sacked

as vice-chairman of the party.

It was an embarrassment

for Theresa May, not a fatal blow.

On Thursday, she arrived

in Brussels sounding upbeat.

I'm disappointed with the amendment,

but actually the, EU Withdrawal Bill

is making good progress

through the House of Commons,

and we're on course

to deliver on Brexit.

She was applauded by leaders

of the 27 EU member states,

rewarded on Friday with a tweet

from EU Council President Donald

Tusk confirming they had agreed

to move on to phase two

of the talks.

"Congratulations,

Theresa May," he said.

Mrs May can't put her feet up

for holidays just yet.

The Cabinet will meet this week

to discuss what the future

relationship with the EU will

look like for the first time.

No one's expecting them all to be

singing from the same carol sheet.

But on Friday,

a fresh rebellion over the EU

Withdrawal Bill was headed off,

so peace on earth, or at least

within the Conservative

Party, reigns for now.

But how much longer can that harmony

exist within the Cabinet? I will

talk to the panel about next week's

discussion on the future end state

of our relations with the EU,

because it will be discussed in

Cabinet for the first time. Theresa

May writing in the papers today, she

proved the doubters wrong, is she

right?

She did in the sense that

many people thought she wouldn't get

through the first phase. They found

words to bind all parties together.

That's what she did in the first

phase. She is right in that sense.

The second phase of which this

Cabinet meeting this week will be

just an early tiptoeing on the

Touraine, it will be much more

mountainous and difficult. I suspect

the Cabinet meeting will be merely

exploring some of the themes, and

there will be, for sure, no

resolution as to what the

government's final position will be.

We have seen some themes explored

this week, Philip Hammond yesterday

in China talking about staying

within the EU rules and regulations

during the transition. We have Boris

Johnson in the papers today setting

out a vision for by virgin further

from the EU then people like Hammond

would like. Will that be aired in

Cabinet?

Are they going to be

singing from the same carol sheet...

Will they sing from the same

spreadsheet in relation to Philip

Hammond's desires? We note Boris

Johnson speaking today in the Sunday

Times, talking about the notion of

eventual self-governance and a

diverging. You have also got Michael

Gove wanting, during the transition

period, for us to be out of the

common agricultural policy, Albert

the Common fisheries policy, that

will be a difficult issue for them

to discuss. We are not even getting

onto the end trade deal, and which

direction do we want to go in? The

Prime Minister has made clear she

wants Canada plus model as opposed

to a Norway style of agreement,

which to be fair to her, she pointed

out in Florence. She said an EEA

agreement was not what was agreed,

and we don't want to be rule takers.

There is a lot to play for. Two

Cabinet meetings, one of the

subcabinet, the war committee, and

the one on Tuesday following the

parliament really address.

The

papers have gone on the idea that

Boris is setting out a different

vision of Britain after Brexit, but

is it different to Theresa May in

her Florence Beach?

Not really. This

is no different to what Boris has

said, the Sunday before Christmas,

there had to be a row -- Florence

speech. This is well established

positions, we know what they all

think, and we have all been saying

for a year and a half since the

referendum that am at some stage, it

would have to be crossed. There has

to be a big choice between a

diverging or harmonisation, because

so far, the EU has been binary about

it. It won't be solved in Cabinet

this week or next month, my bet is,

yet again, they will come up with a

fudged to present to the EU, or

Cabinet will fall apart and half of

them will have to leave. Eventually,

it will have to be grasped in the

autumn when the EU say, "You either

have to defecate or get off the

potty, because this is what is in

front of you." The third option was

interesting, at the summit on

Friday, something interesting

happened, which was the EU blinked,

they said, "Move on to trade and

transition." But we are not quite

ready to do trade. We are incredibly

United to begin with, now we don't

know what we want. We have three

months before trade starts in March

for everybody, for the British

Governor, to influence the EU 27 in

their thinking, and come up with a

great third Way, which is cake and

eat it.

And will be considerably

more corrugated than what we have

done already. Stay there, we will

come back to you during the course

of the programme.

Well, we can speak now

to the Conservative MP

for mid-Bedfordshire.

She ruffled some feathers this week

when she said that pro-European

Tories who rebelled

on the EU Withdrawal Bill

should be deselected.

Thank you for joining us. Can we

talk first about the transition, or

implementation period, two years

after we leave the EU, a number of

your colleagues have expressed a

number of serious concerns about the

idea we will be following EU rules

and regulations during that period,

how worried are you about that?

I

think everybody's concerned about

that. The important thing is, we get

this period, this transition period,

through and done as quickly as

possible. Therefore, we have to

reach agreement. The reason why it

needs to be done as quickly as

possible is because it is in

Britain's interests, it is in the

interest of business, who required

stability and security, and

confidence moving forward. We've do

need to get to this position as

quickly as possible. The rebels from

last week are going to have to

explain why, if they don't think we

should leave the Commons fishery

policy, why that would not be in

Britain's interest. There is a lot

up for debate going forward.

The

Chancellor made it clear that he

would be replicating the status quo

during this transition period. That

doesn't mean leaving the common

fisheries policy or die vaulting in

any way from EU rules. -- by

vaulting.

During his budget speech,

he himself talk about the uniqueness

of Britain. It took about my own

constituency and area, which will

become a tech corridor. So he has

highlighted areas where we can

divert, which is in high-tech. We

can do it in that area, we can do it

in my constituency, like art we do

it in other areas...

The point he

was talking about was, yesterday, he

said, we would be subject to all old

rules and regulations during that

period.

It also depends how long

that period is going to be. Most

reasonable and sensible people can

accept a period of time when we need

to have those discussions, and when

we will abide by those rules. The

problem is, what we don't want to

see is Brexit constantly kicked into

the long grass as we go further and

further forward, and Brexit never

seems to be actually happening.

There has to be an endgame.

Everybody wants to see that. If we

can't see that quickly enough, then

we do have to have these unique and

these individual situations where we

may need to pull out of certain

things sooner.

Talking about the

endgame, that is what the Cabinet

will discuss this week, we know

there will be a debate inside there,

and people like Philip Hammond the

Chancellor will argue that we stay

closely aligned to EU rules and

regulations even after we have

finally left, how worried are you

about those so-called soft

Brexiteers prevailing in Cabinet?

Gosh, do you know... I'm not sure

they will prevail. I trust Theresa

May, I trust David Davies, I trust

Amber Rudd. I trust all of the

people in Cabinet to reach an

agreement. And because what they

will be doing is reaching an

agreement in Britain's interest and

the interest of Parliament, and the

interest of Brexit. All of those

people in Cabinet stood on a

manifesto in 2017 to deliver Brexit,

and they have to do that in a way

which the British people, who

democratically exercised their vote,

would like to see. Otherwise they

will lose the support of the British

public.

You say you trust the

Cabinet to deliver Brexit, do you

trust all of your Tory MP colleagues

to do so?

Well, I hope so. Can I

just say, I know the rebels are

being lauded as he arose from whence

they not, can I tell you who the

real heroes are in all of this, they

are the Conservative MPs, not the

Labour MPs, but the Conservative MPs

who believed in Remain, who

campaigned for Remain, during the EU

referendum, but stood on a manifesto

to deliver Brexit, and they are the

people who are the unsung heroes,

who are backing the government and

backing Theresa May, and doing so

because they know that is their duty

to do so. Some of the rebels could

perhaps learn a lesson from some of

their Remain colleagues, who know

the right thing to do is to deliver

Brexit, because that was voted for a

democratic mandate.

You are being

quite Conser Liege reef, --

consulate tree, but you did at the

time tweaked that they should be

deselected and never allowed to

stand as Tory MPs again, have you

changed your mind about that?

Gosh... I don't know if I have

changed my mind, but what I meant at

the time was, most of these rebels

voted for the private members' Bill

to have a referendum. They stood on

a manifesto in 2015 to deliver that

referendum. And then they stood

again on a manifesto in 2017 to

implement Brexit. I think, to go

back on those promises, that they

were elected to honour, it is

something for their associations to

discuss and consider...

But... Have

they gone back on those promises?

They would say they still want to

intimate Brexit, they just want

Parliament to have control over that

rather than the executive.

No, I

don't believe they do. I believe

what they have deliberately tried to

do right from the moment of the

referendum result is to frustrate

and delay Brexit, and I believe this

is a very active tactic they are

using. No, I do believe they are

honouring the promise they stood on

in the 20 Zinedine manifesto. They

should put trust in David Davies and

the Prime Minister. Rather than make

life difficult for the Prime

Minister when she is leaving to go

to Brussels for further

negotiations, trust the Prime

Minister and assist the Prime

Minister. That is what they have

been elected to do. There is a

Conservative government that has

been elected on a manifesto to

deliver Brexit.

From the beginning, they have gone

out of their way to delay and

frustrate this, and they need to

stop doing it.

Anna Soubry, one of

the rebels, writing in the Mail on

Sunday, says that calls for rebels

to be deselected mean the Tories now

have their own blue momentum

movement.

I do, I am sure he does.

You

frequently voted with your

conscience, you voted against Tory

primaries does in the past and

rebelled against the whip, why is it

different?

I voted many times

against the government, I am a

self-declared rebel, but I do it at

a time, you have to choose your

rebellions carefully. What I would

say is different now is that we have

a Marxist government knocking on the

door. We have a full mandate from

the British public to deliver

Brexit, they voted for it in the

referendum. These MPs stood on that

promise in 2017, today is very

different. What happened on

Wednesday night was the rebels put a

spring in the step of Labour MPs.

The party in Jeremy Corbyn's office

could be heard in the car park

outside. It has made life difficult

for us to keep that Marxist

government out of power eventually.

They have helped Labour MPs find

their mojo one is again. We don't

want that to happen. We have an

important situation that has not

been seen since wartime. The

response ability was to support the

government.

Nadeem, thank you for

talking to us this morning.

We can speak now to one

of the leading pro-EU

Conservative MPs, Ken Clarke.

He's in Nottingham.

Thank you for joining us this

warning.

Glad to be here.

I hope you

could hear Nadine Dorries, she says

rebels, you and others, but voted

against the government on Wednesday,

are trying to reverse Brexit.

You

have succeeded in getting into all

of this personal stuff, but I do

think she is aiming it at me. I am a

member of the government that led us

into Europe and the single market, I

did not vote in the referendum, and

my constituents have no doubts about

my views. The 20 Zinedine manifesto

was produced after I had been

adopted as a candidate, no one sent

me a copy, and I haven't ever seen a

copy of it. Let's get back to the

big issues, which are how do we

preserve the future prosperity of

this country? How do we preserve a

leading position in world affairs to

look after our interest? What is the

best thing to do for the interests

of our children and our

grandchildren? All of these other

things, the right-wing newspaper

rubbish,, it is trying to get a Tory

equivalent of momentum.

Do you think

that the way to preserve the things

you talk about is to put reverse

Brexit?

I don't think we can do

that. I was in the small minority

when I voted against in -- invoking

Article 50. The party is moving

towards Brexit, the country will see

Brexit. Suddenly turning Brexit into

a proposal, we have big lorry parks,

customs officers, so different

market regulations, you know,

different rules about backing

cleaner noise, that was not what the

referendum was about. More

importantly, it will do great damage

to our economy, it could cost

thousands of jobs and make the

country much mess less attractive.

We have now got to try to reach an

agreement that produces a sensible,

sensible political and economic

future for this country in the real

world, not in the slightly childish

world of knock about politics.

How

confident are you the Cabinet will

come to that compromise when they

start to discuss things this week?

We keep having public statements,

which are rather alarming, but I am

reasonably confident that they can.

What are you alarmed by in the

public state was?

You are trying to

get me to go on about Boris, out of

line with what apply Mr has done.

But the Chancellor has a duty to

actually look after the British

economy, to make sure business is

not deterred from coming to this

country, to make sure we keep our

markets in Europe, and in the rest

of the world, as intact as we can. I

think the Cabinet will rally around

that.

Theresa May made pretty clear

in her Florence speech that what we

will leave the supermarket, the

customs unit, and there fetch you

ruled out the post Brexit future?

Lancaster House was the first time

anyone had interpreted, anyone in

authority, had interpreted the

referendum result to mean that. It

does give rise to problems. What

they have now got to address is the

problems that arise. It started with

last week, we suddenly faced

Ireland, which nobody had mentioned,

which is an insult to the people of

Northern Ireland and Republic of

Island, really we agreed then, we

must keep the border open with

regulatory convergence on both

sides. It applies to Dover and

Folkestone, and we won't get

planning permission for the lorry

parks we would need if we rush on

abandoning the single market in

March, 2019, we have brought coming.

Let's not into Gibraltar. It would

make the Irish problems looked like

a picnic. You will have a lot of

adage businesses wondering where on

earth Britain is going unless we now

interpret policy of the Florence

speech and move on from the Florence

speech, which was a big move

forward, move on from the fact that

we finally settled these three quite

simple issues that had to be settled

about our withdrawal, which could

have been months ago had it not been

for the troubles.

We need to get onto a sensible

economic future worked out by people

prepared to read the brief and who

know something about trade,

investment and business in the

modern, globalised economy.

With the

vote last week, in which Parliament

now gets a meaningful say on the

Brexit deal, do you interpret that

to mean that parliament could send

the Prime Minister back to Brussels

to renegotiate a different deal if

Parliament doesn't like it, so your

views have to be taken into account

with the final deal?

Politics in

this country is based on all

governments having to take the views

of Parliament into account. It's

difficult when Parliament is a small

majority where there is confusion,

because the issue cuts across party

lines, that makes it more difficult,

but it was a mistake to invoke the

royal prerogative, a mistake to try

but it was a mistake to invoke the

and avoid Parliament revoked. In the

end, this is determining our future

for the next generation or two on

difficult issues that Parliament

will have to approve before

government can get a deal. That

should strengthen Theresa May and

David Davis's hands in the

negotiations because, just like the

other 27 negotiators, they will have

to say that they can't deliver

things which they can't get past

their own parliament.

It's been

reported this morning that Heidi

Allen, a Conservative MP who

rebelled against the government last

week, is facing threats of

deselection. You are perfectly safe

in your constituency, are you? What

do you think of the other rebels

being deselected?

I don't think my

constituents have any doubts about

my views, not all of my association

agree with me, but I have never

fallen out with anybody personally

because of political differences. I

think this is all nonsense. It's

caused by the rubbish that keeps

appearing in the right-wing

newspapers, which have completely

lost their heads over the whole

thing. It is totally absurd to say

this is helping Jeremy Corbyn, it is

weakening Theresa May and all the

rest of it. Here we are, three days

after the vote took place, and

Theresa May is no weaker and she was

after that. Jeremy Corbyn is not

marching towards Downing Street.

What we voted for is a Parliamentary

accountability of the government.

Nothing to do with blocking Brexit,

and it is utterly idiotic few of our

association members in various parts

of country start interpreting this

as the start of some sort of purge

of backbench members of conscience.

Eurosceptics have been voting

against the government for the last

30 years, and nobody on my side of

the argument has ever gone round

saying they should be expelled from

the party and sent to darkness. It

is a broad church, it is a

free-market party with a strong

social conscience, and it has been a

pro-European party for the first 50

years of my membership.

Thank you

for talking to us, and I'll come

back to the panel. He says the Prime

Minister was not weakened by that

vote, and neither was Jeremy Corbyn

emboldened. Is he right?

Not quite

right. What the vote did was point

out what we all secretly knew. She

wasn't further weakened by it, she

was weakened by the general election

result. She was always going to be

in this predicament without a

majority. That vote reminded

everybody of how weak she is and

will continue to be as this entire

Parliament passes.

The accusation

from people like Nadine Dorries is

that this helps Labour and

intentionally offers in a Corbyn

government is any truth in that?

There was a perception of truth

because of how close he got to

number ten, which took us by

surprise on election night, apart

from you, who got it right. But

equally I think there was a sense

with Theresa May's own popularity,

and recent polling is said that the

Conservatives are gaining an Jeremy

Corbyn, which is perhaps explained

by the fact that people are unclear,

despite numerous explanations by

Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit

Secretary, on the Labour opposition.

They appear to have backtracked on

their manifesto and want close

alignment, if not remaining in the

supermarket and customs union, which

is anathema to anybody who voted for

Brexit an Jeremy Corbyn and Labour,

and equally I think it's interesting

that, once we take ourselves out of

Westminster bubble, some of the talk

on the streets about Theresa May's

apparent weakness is misplaced. A

lots of people think she has shown

resilience and they appreciate she

is in a difficult political mess, in

terms of her lack of a larger

majority and the rest of it, but I

think she was pity David after

coughing gate, and I think that has

turned into grudging admiration for

the fact that she has defied the

people who said it would be

impossible and managed to get to the

second phase of negotiations.

I

think what we got with the vote was

recognition that this is a hung

parliament. In a hung Parliament,

government get defeated. . This is

new to us because we had the

coalition which a majority and the

Labour and Thatcher landslide eras,

but in the 70s, the key moments that

Labour government defeated again and

again, this one will. It's not that

she is inherently weak as a

personality, she is just in a weak

position. There was a majority

forming. It probably could have been

bigger. In favour of that amendment

last week. It will happen again

because the House of Commons is in a

different place on Europe than she

is.

Briefly.

What was fascinating is

that Nadine Dorries and those of her

like said, you weakened her, nobody

will take seriously in Brussels, but

she went and she got love oned. It

had an inverse effect. -- love oned.

Using weakness as a strength.

And you can find more Brexit

analysis and explanation on the BBC

website, at bbc.co.uk/brexit.

Let's turn now to Labour.

As 2017 draws to a close they've got

plenty to feel upbeat about,

although they could have to wait

another four and a half years

for a chance to form a government.

The party says it's ready,

but do the public agree?

Elizabeth Glinka took the entirely

unscientific moodbox

to the constituency of Warwick

and Leamington, a former

Conservative seat snatched

by Labour in June.

This week, Theresa May

faced her first defeat

in the House of Commons -

and, if you speak to Labour

activists, they will tell

you a general election could be just

around the corner, and they are more

than ready to form a government.

So we've come here to

Warwick Castle to ask people,

is Labour ready or not ready?

No, definitely not.

Why not?

I don't like the Labour leader.

It's the first time I've been asked

about politics here in the castle.

I think they are ready.

Absolutely not ready.

They don't seem to have any strong

policies and every time you hear

them arguing against the Government

they are just negative.

There's not a positive,

constructive response.

I came from a country

which was Communist for a long time.

It terrifies me when I hear

some of their ideas.

Although I don't like

the other guys, too.

LAUGHTER.

Would you say the Labour Party

is ready for government?

Yes.

I'll take that as a yes.

Sorry, Jeremy.

I remember British Rail

before it was privatised.

It was dreadful.

I would say ready.

I think that the Tory party

are totally focused on Brexit.

They are not looking at any

of the other problems,

the NHS, housing, transport,

everything else that's

going on in the country,

and I think the Labour Party

would look at those other issues.

Not ready.

Not ready.

They're not clear on their policies

and a lot of infighting,

so I just don't think they are ready

to be in charge yet.

Thank you for this.

That's OK.

There is never a knight

around when you need one.

I'd go with ready.

I think, from what we've got

at the moment, I think

give them a chance.

OK, let's go for it then.

Not ready, maybe because I don't

think the Shadow Chancellor

is at all suitable.

They can't do any worse

than what we've already got

at the moment, so I think time

for a change.

Would you say the Labour Party is

ready or not ready for government?

Interesting.

Not ready.

Why is that?

Not ready, because they are still

bickering amongst themselves.

Because I am fed up

with the Conservative government.

I feel we need a change.

OK, so why did you go for not ready?

I just don't think they have

what it takes just yet.

Well, only eight more

sleeps till Christmas,

and I'm afraid Jeremy Corbyn may not

like his present this year.

The visitors here to Warwick Castle

say that Labour is not

ready for government.

Right, better get the rest

of these presents delivered.

Elizabeth Glinka with

the decidedly unscientific

moodbox at Warwick Castle.

Well, I'm joined now

by the shadow justice

secretary Richard Burgon,

he's in Leeds.

Good morning.

Good morning, Sarah.

We were told in the summer that

Jeremy Corbyn reportedly said he

would be Prime Minister by

Christmas. It doesn't look as though

it is likely to happen. Will he be

in Number Ten by next Christmas, do

you think?

Who knows, all we can say

is we will be ready for another

general election when it take place

and we are ready to go the full

course is that needs to be the case

as well.

In order to be ready for an

election, it will be important to

have a clear position on Brexit, and

in fairness the Labour opposition

there has been some clarity in the

last couple of weeks on bad, and it

appears the wants to stay much

closer to EU rules and regulations

than the Conservative Party.

What

Labour wants to do is to reach a

position where we have a good

relationship with the EU has Brexit,

because Britain is leaving the

European Union and Labour accepts

and respect the outcome of the

referendum, and we want a post

Brexit Britain where the economy and

jobs is put first, not fixated on

structures. That is the end goal we

want to reach, will return as they

good trading relationship with the

EU and the rest of the world. --

where Britain has a good trading

relationship. And we want to protect

environmental rights and workers as

well.

The Tories would say they are

interested in those things as well

but there has to be a structure

around this when we have an in-state

relationship with the EU. Is it fair

to say you want a closer

relationship than the government is

arguing for?

We have set out the

vision of what we want in terms of

Britain post Brexit. The problem

that Theresa May as with negotiating

is that, at the same time as

negotiating with Brussels, she has

two negotiate with her backbenchers

and the extreme caucus in the

Conservative Party who are

ideological fixated on structures

and the ECJ, and that raised -- that

has really weakened her, as we saw

in Parliament.

We will have to have

answers on those questions. If you

say you are ready to form a

government within the next year,

Labour needs clear answers on these

questions about whether or not you

would ever consider a continuing

role for the European Court of

Justice, for instance.

We see it as

common sense that the ECJ should

play a role in the transition

period...

After that?

We are open

minded, because every trade deal

these institutions to protect and

oversee that deal. Seems like common

sense.

Tom Watson has said that he

wouldn't rule out a second

referendum on Brexit, and Jeremy

Corbyn a few weeks ago in Lisbon

said something similar. Would you be

in favour of a second

in favour of a second referendum?

Labour isn't calling for a second

referendum.

referendum.

But Tom Watson said he

wouldn't run it out.

It could be the

case that Theresa May caves in and

starts

starts asking for another

referendum, I doubt that we are not

in government I can say clearly we

are not

are not arguing for a second

referendum, and I think that was

made clear on Andrew Marr earlier

today by Diane Abbott.

Whatever the

end relationship between the UK and

EU, is it important you and to

Labour that we see lower

Labour that we see lower levels of

immigration from the EU?

We want to

put the economy and jobs first and,

if you listen to the public sector

and the NHS, the care sector, they

are clear that the role EU migrants

have played and are

have played and are playing is

essential to growth, essential to

the private sector, but also

essential to our NHS as well.

essential to our NHS as well.

That

sounds like you don't want lower

levels of immigration after we

leave.

We want to put jobs and

economy first, we want fair and

reasonably

reasonably managed migration, but

free movement as it is will end when

Britain leaves the EU and we will

need a new arrangement that is fair

and reasonably managed.

and reasonably managed. We want to

put and the public economy first.

The Conservatives have a bad track

record of

record of making headline grabbing

false promises on immigration but

never meeting those targets.

never meeting those targets.

You are

an enthusiastic supporter of Richard

Leonard, the new leader of the

Scottish Labour Party. You have

called him an inspiring socialist in

the past. Are you hoping the UK

Labour manifesto will copy some of

his rather more radical Labour

ideas?

It is for the Scottish Labour

Party to decide Scottish policy.

But

do you want to some of his ideas

replicated nationwide?

replicated nationwide?

We agree on

most things, and Richard

most things, and Richard Leonard

supported the UK wide manifesto in

2011, he enthusiastically supported

the minimum wage rise, taking

railways back into public ownership.

railways back into public ownership.

What about the idea for a one-off

wealth tax, 1% of the total wealth

of the richest 10% being paid?

of the richest 10% being paid?

That

is a matter for the Scottish Labour

Party.

But would you like the same

thing adopted nationwide?

Our

manifesto isn't decided by Shadow

Cabinet members making

Cabinet members making declarations

on the Sunday Politics.

But you are

allowed a view.

allowed a view.

Our manifesto was

reached on a consensus basis, not

only the Shadow Cabinet and

Parliamentary Labour Party but with

members all over the country. We are

now the biggest political party in

Western Europe. It will be for me to

be making policy decisions live on

air.

air. We believe in the politics of

consensus and collectivism and we

will be taking that forward with our

next manifesto.

next manifesto.

Some viewers may not

know that, as well as being a Labour

MP, you present a heavy metal show

on your local radio station, so we

have a click to listen to.

The new album of Vallenfyre

is called Fear Those Who Fear Him,

and it's so heavy, it feels painful

to listen to, in a good way.

Let's see if you agree.

This song is by Vallenfyre and it's

called An Apathetic Grave.

METAL GUITAR RIFF.

MUSIC: An Apathetic

Grave by Vallentyre.

Clearly, you are a big heavy metal

band. Jeremy Corbyn told the NME you

listen to everything from

listen to everything from Mahler to

piped music, but he has never

mentioned heavy metal. Can you

introduce him to some of your

favourite tracks?

favourite tracks?

I could do. Jeremy

has been on the front page of

Kerrang, and what was nice was that

he didn't pretend to like heavy

metal. It's good he set that. Far

more refreshing than when David

Cameron used to pretend to like the

Smiths.

It's coming up to 11:40,

you're watching the Sunday Politics.

And, remember this?

We have agreed that the government

should call a general election.

Good morning and welcome

to Sunday Politics Scotland.

Coming up on the programme...

What's going wrong

with Scotland's economy

and can it be fixed?

And we'll take a look back

on what's been another

helluva year in Politics.

Ruth Davidson has predicted we have

hit peak and the only way is down.

This party... Hello!

Hello and welcome to the programme.

This week, for the first time

since its inception,

the Scottish Government announced

plans to raise taxes.

It's been decades since any

UK administration has

raised income tax, so this

is a big gamble politically.

Then again, there was little choice,

as this is the only tax

raising power Holyrood has.

But something else

happened this week -

we also learnt the diabolical

predictions for economic growth -

0.7% next year, that's half

the predictions for the UK

as a whole, and it doesn't get much

better for five years.

These dreadful figures came

from the independent

Scottish Fiscal Commission,

set up by the Scottish government to

scrutinise their own tax forecasts.

Here's the Chair, Susan Rice.

Bob, six months on, and only 42

households have moved

into permanent new homes.

There are a couple of underlying

factors we think are the main forces

at play. One of them is what's

called productivity, so the value of

what is produced for every hour

worked this in simple terms. We've

had loads relativity in Scotland and

low productivity growth in the UK

and another of other countries for

number of years but in Scotland and

specifically productivity growth has

been flat for well over ten years

and that has a huge impact on the

growth of the economy overall. The

other important factor is the shape

of our population. The population

isn't growing or growing minimally

going forward but growth might come

in age group of 65 and above and we

are seeing a shrieking population in

the 16 to 64-year-old age group.

That has a direct impact on what

happens economically.

There are a lot of factors which

impact on private sector behaviour

and it isn't the figure so much,

it's really what underlies that so

what underlies that is the number of

uncertainties and we have pointed

out in our report, there are

uncertainties around the oil and gas

sector as it continues to adapt to a

lower price for its product and

various other uncertainties. That's

what will impact business and

behaviours and decisions others

make.

That's a really big question, it's

an important question and honestly,

time will tell. I think that the 1p

is a modest increase and the

judgment we made is that a lot of

people will live with that. That

money should go to supporting

services in Scotland. People speak

often about the standard of living

here, how they like living here, so

it's important that money is funded

into services but I think to answer

your question directly, it's ready

hard to say now how this will play

out. We will be watching.

That was Susan Rice, chair

of the Scottish Fiscal Committee,

whose report helped shape

Derek Mackay's budget.

Now, a little earlier I spoke

to the economist David Bell.

I'm not sure what word, David

Powell, we could use other economic

forecast that the Scottish Fiscal

Commission is making, but pretty

awful, would that sound about right

-- Steven Bell.

They are pretty low

forecasts, which suggest the

Scottish economy is not going to

pick up from the pretty low

refectory it's experienced all the

time since the financial crash. Hush

macro low project tree.

One

mitigating factor is part of the

problem is the population not

growing so what that means is the

difference between growth in the UK

and in Scotland is not as dramatic

as the difference in growth per

capita.

Yes, that's true. That's

certainly true in the great per

capita but the issue that Susan Rice

was talking about in terms of the

gradual shrinking of the working age

population hasn't really kicked in

yet. It will kick in in quite a big

way over the next ten years or so

and it will be important for the

Scottish Government to be looking at

policies to try to extend people.

Working

Working lives -- people's working

lives so that the people who work

beyond 65 is increased.

The most

surprisingly I thought in the

document Susan Rice produced ago

with the budget was that Derek

Mackay made much of the budget

being, I'll use his words, "It would

prioritise economic growth." But

halfway through the document she

concludes that the budget measures,

the phrase she uses, will have no

significant aggregate impact on the

Scottish economy. So, prioritising

economic growth will have no effect

whatsoever on economic growth.

That's a bit of a paradox I think.

The short-term levers that

government has to increase economic

growth are limited, so an annual

object that you don't expect

actually to make a huge difference

to overall economic growth. It's the

longer term things that you put in

place for improved infrastructure,

broad brand for example, and

increasing skills, that are probably

the counter policies that are most

likely to lead, albeit in the long

term, the increased economic growth.

Is there any different approach they

could have taken that you think

might have had a better chance of

growing the economy?

Well, they are

putting their foot in the water as

far as changing the structure of

income tax is concerned, so they

have made income tax in Scotland

slightly more progressive than that

in the UK as a whole but not much

and not by all that much. They have

announced a number of measures,

which are more on the back burner

around improving broadband and there

is a big capital programme but the

results for these kind of

investments went the scene probably

within this Parliament.

Very

briefly, David, one of the bigger

ticket issues that Susan Rice argues

is that she argues partly that for

various reasons economic growth has

been lower over the last few years

in Scotland than it appeared to be

but that for partly the same

reasons, the implication seems to be

that even if things got back to

normal, in inverted commas, normal

growth in the Scottish economy will

now be about half what it was for

the half-century before the

financial crash.

I think that's

true. I mean, if you compare the

decade before 2008 and the decade

since, the comparison in terms of

economic performance is stark and

Susan Rice mentioned that many

countries have been affected in the

same way but it seems that Scotland

has been particularly affected and

really we need to find out why

that's the case, why its economic

growth has been at the bottom end of

the set of countries who have been

exposed to globalisation, to huge

changes in technology and so on over

the last decade, why has Scotland,

why is at the bottom end of economic

performance among small developed

countries?

Steven Bell, thanks very

much.

I'm joined now by the SNP's

Ivan McKee a member of the Scottish

Parliament's Finance Committee,

and in Edinburgh is the Conservative

Dean Lockhart who is a member

of the Economy Committee.

Well, Ivan McKee, this thing about

economic growth, Derek Mackay said

he would prioritise economic growth

in his budget and the conclusion of

the Scottish Fiscal Commission is

not just that the budget will have

no affect on economic growth at all

this year but it will have no effect

over the five years that they are

forecasting.

You also heard David

talk about the fact these things

take time and it's a longer time to

look at.

I get the point it's not an

immediate effect, let me read if to

you, she said the policies announced

in the draft budget are not expected

to have a significant impact on the

economy over the five-year forecast

period. I take your point about some

of these things are long-term

outcome that you know, for a budget

that was prioritising growth to

produce no growth seems a

contradiction.

The biggest issues

you identify if -- the biggest issue

she identifies is Scotland's

population change and The Big Issue

driving that is Brexit and if you

look at the numbers, they have used

an aggressive assumption on

population growth, which is more

constrained than that used than they

are down south so they are talking

about Scotland being impacted more

by the population issue caused by

Brexit in the rest of the UK and

that's an issue causing the problems

of growth.

But Derek Mackay knew

that before he published his budget

so why did he then say he would

prioritise economic growth when he

must've known for the reasons you

have given us, actually has budget

wouldn't have any effect.

That's not

true because unfortunately we don't

have any control over Brexit, it was

up to us we would be in the single

market and driving population growth

through that mechanism but that's

not open to us. If you look at the

quotes from business leaders and the

CBI, they are welcoming what been

done and the steps being taken to

simulate growth...

But it won't have

any effect on growth stock yellow --

when you say look in the round...?

The situation would be worse if we

hadn't done this and that's what

you're hearing.

Is your argument there may be no

economic growth because of the

budget?

What that report talks

about, it talks about the gross you

have spoken about in that statement

and the impact of population.

Population growth or the constraint

on it in Scotland is a huge factor.

My point is Derek Mackay knew that.

Unfortunately we cannot bend Brexit

otherwise we would.

otherwise we would. Broadband, David

Bell highlighted and the huge

investment by the Scottish

Government.

What do you make of the

idea that a budget of growth is no

growth?

These things take time, the

SNP have had ten years to grow the

Scottish economy, over that time the

Scottish economy has underperformed.

On the budget, what Susan Rae said,

low productivity was one of the key

factors. You increase skills and the

economy. This budget has made

Scotland the highest tax part of

Scotland for a skilled workers.

Every leading business organisation

has advised against it. We will see

the skills gap widening and that

will have a cumulative effect on

productivity.

If Ivan McKee is

contradicting what Susan Rice said,

then you are. The fiscal commission

came to the conclusion that the

relatively small increases in tax

would not have the deterrent effect

that you have described.

That

remains to be seen. It is relatively

small when you look at it on an

individual basis. Leading

organisations have said that

Scotland is lower than the rest of

the UK. Higher tax means less money

to spend in the economy and that

will have a negative impact on the

economy. This will result on

business costs in Scotland being

higher than elsewhere in the UK.

All

right. The other thing a lot of

people, a lot of people will have to

pay this tax will make them think

twice that, that in her document,

Susan Rice forecast that tax

revenues in the 18-19 year, they

will be lower than those forecast by

the old BR before taxes went up.

Which produced less revenues, or

maybe they would have been higher if

you had not put the taxes up.

They

will be a forecast on UK level. But

they also did one for Scotland. But

they also did... Taxes will be up by

500 million next year, income tax. I

come back to the point, it is

ridiculous to suggest that for the

sake of £2 a week someone will not

move to Scotland where they get free

tuition fees for university

education, free prescriptions.

Looking at skills, we are investing

9% in real terms for further

education colleges in Scotland and a

huge investment in two steps to work

on employability schemes to get

people back into work. The

investment in skills and training

from the Scottish Government is a

significant part to see what we have

done to boost economic growth in

this budget.

Is it? The SNP are long

and policy, in terms of the economy

and policy, in terms of the economy

-- effects on the economy, the

figures speak for themselves.

To be

clear, I think the point the SSC is

making that tax revenues will be

lower than very expected by the OBR

a month ago, not because the

Scottish Government have put up

taxes, but lower than expected

economic growth. That has more

effect than what you do with the tax

rate.

I agree. If over the next five

years, growth in Scotland could

match the UK, then public spending

in Scotland would have an extra £2

billion. This increased by the SNP

has increased 116 million pounds for

the budget. But if you had a

commitment to economic growth, you

are looking at an extra £2 billion

for a Scottish public services in

the next five years.

That is our

absolute priority. Give me a idea of

what they should have done which

would make the economy grow faster

and bring in more tax revenue?

We

would like to see the Scottish

Government work closely with the UK

Government on their economic

strategy.

strategy. If the Scottish Government

could really get Scotland to the

front and central of the UK

industrial strategy, we would see a

good improvement in the economy.

You

are defending the SNP. You are a

former business person. If they had

called you and said, one thing we

could do that we have not thought

of, what would it be?

For business

issues, it would be skills. We have

talking about investment in

broadband and transport. The other

focus is the Manufacturing Institute

which will give a boost to hide --

manufacturing. That is what is

important. The tax situation, a lot

of that is due to what we have had

to...

Even though the have said it

will have nothing to do for economic

growth. -- SFC.

That is not what

Derek Mackay said.

That is what he

has done.

Even though there is no

growth? Within the constraints of

Westminster, and Brexit fishing the

population in the right direction.

Given the limited hand he has got to

play with, I think he has done the

best they can.

We will have to leave

it there. Thank you both very much.

In recent times that old adage,

"A week is a long time

in politics" has become

somewhat obsolete -

it's more like a day now.

Nevertheless, given it's close

to the end of the year,

we've put together a taster

of what's happened so far.

Tonight, reporting Scotland live

from Edinburgh. It is game on, the

First Minister announces plans for a

second independence referendum.

Our

efforts of compromise have been met

with a brick wall of intransigence.

The First Minister signs a letter

to...

There were no abstentions, the

motion as amended is therefore

agreed.

Applause, cheers but a

solemn looking First Minister,

perhaps pondering the challenges

ahead.

No is not the time. Now is

not the time.

No is not the time.

When is the right time? No is not

the time. I have just chaired a

meeting of the cabinet where we

agreed that the government should

call a general election to be held

on the 8th of June.

General

election. You are joking? Not

another one?

I love elections. I do

not know if you could tell from the

last election, I love myself. I love

the campaign we were running.

That

was a Freudian slip. It is good to

have a boost on the campaign trail

with you. How are you getting on so

far?

Thank you for everything you

have done for Scottish

Conservatives.

It will be a huge

challenge for Nicola Sturgeon's

party. The only way is down. This

party... Hello!

party... Hello!

It is exactly ten

o'clock. The exit poll for BBC, ITV

and sky suggest the Conservatives

will be the largest party after the

2017 general election. But if it is

correct, Theresa May will be short

of an overall majority and that is

not the result she hoped for when

she called the snap election.

I

hereby declare that Theresa May has

been duly elected.

My pictures

simple, I am Theresa May and I think

I am the best person to lead my

constituency. It is a choice between

strong and stable leadership under

the Conservatives. We delivered that

strong and stable leadership. We

delivered the certainty that strong

and stable leadership can give. It

is about strong and stable

leadership in the national interest.

It is just people can listen to this

that kind of thing and think it is

robotic.

It is... Nothing has

changed. Nothing has changed. When

future generations look back at this

time, they will judge us not only by

the decisions that may make, but by

what we made that decision.

Tonight

on reporting Scotland from

Westminster, the SNP are under

pressure to rule out a second

independence referendum after losing

more than a third of their seats.

They remain Scotland's biggest

party, but some of the biggest names

have gone.

You have not seen the

last of my bonnets and me.

We will

reflect on these results. We will

listen to voters and we will

consider very carefully the best way

forward for Scotland.

She ran on the

second referendum and that was a

gift to the Tory party and the

Labour Party.

Indyref 2 is dead. We

will not seek to introduce the

legislation foreign independence

referendum immediately. Instead we

will, in good faith, redouble our

efforts on Twitter shoulder to the

wheel in effort to influence the

Brexit talks for Scotland's

interest.

Boris, job done there.

Give her the P 45. Labour will

deliver I've written for the many,

not the few. -- the Britain.

News is

coming in that Kezia Dugdale has

resigned as leader of the Scottish

Labour Party with immediate effect.

I did not know Kezia Dugdale was

going to resign until about ten or

15 minutes before she announced

that.

Was there a plot against you?

I do not know. There was a

conversation suggesting there was a

plot. I am not interested in that. I

will do what I was elected to do.

Crickets and cockroaches. Beautiful.

No!

No!

Don't you think you will be

remembered for your time in the

jungle for drinking a milkshake of

ostrich and pig heinous is and

calling -- crawling through fish

guts?

You might not like that very

much, it is considered light

entertainment.

# FRom Russia with love.

Hello and welcome to the very first

episode of the Alex Salmond show.

That look back was put

together by Graham Stewart.

Well, after such a jam-packed year,

I've got three people

here with me to discuss it -

the editor of

The Big Issue, Paul McNamee,

and the journalists Pennie Taylor

and Jenni Davidson.

First let's just talk about the

budget, Penny. What did you make of

all the changes to tax?

I think

what's really struck me most is how

many people in Scotland I am

encountering have welcomed the rise

on the basis that it goes on to

improving public services. However,

they will want to see results from

that. With 3.5 years left until the

next Scottish election, it is a

tight timescale.

Yes.

It does break

the mould a little bit?

Yes. It

does. There has been a taboo and

written about raising income tax and

that has been broken?

People in

Scotland, in many areas of Scotland

and many people, have been saying we

need to raise taxes to pay for our

public services.

They don't

necessarily vote for it.

As the SNP

discovered. Time will tell. It has

been described as a tentative tax

rise. Is it a tool in the water for

more to come?

What did you of it,

Jenny?

It was an astute move. We

knew taxes would have to rise. There

is a hole in the revenue budget in

terms of the block grant the

Scottish Government gets from the UK

Government. They are down 219

million. They will want to make a

lot of cuts which would be

unpopular. They will have to go down

the unpopular rid of raising tax.

They will have a similar hall next

year. Does this go on indefinitely?

year. Does this go on indefinitely?

-- Semler hole.

Indeed. Yeah. I am

not sure. We will have to see some

of this growth, but in terms of

dealing with that in the short-term,

it was quite clear they had to be

something done that they were making

noises towards a tax increase. This

has been very, very clever in terms

of managing to increase taxes but

also be seen to try and the crease

taxes at the same time, 55% of tax

is being paid by Scots, but equally

those who are paying more, for many

people it is a little bit more,

maybe tens of pounds a month. So

getting the balance of being able to

make a change to tax that is broadly

welcome, that has avoided the scare

stories that were being raised and

being put up, from 45p to 55p in the

pound. People leaving Scotland, mass

economic exodus.

What needs to be worried about in

the future, you are right, the

fiscal commission has concluded that

the small taxes being raised when

have that effect but the more you

put them up, unless they are put up

in the rest of the UK, the more that

effect kicks in.

And they aren't big

enough to address the shortfall. I

was surprised in the budget there

was no specific reference to social

care in Scotland. Yes, there was

talk about more money for the NHS

but the area that is under severe

pressure here that really matters to

people and their families is social

care.

Paul, what did you make of the

budget?

I thought it was very

nuanced, it was canny in that it

played to the idea that the caring

Scott once to show that they can

help

help those who need help without

clobbering them for a lot of extra

money. I think next if people want

results. They want to see where that

money is going and I also feel that

when it comes to the vote for the

members of the coalition when they

need to put this through Parliament

will say hold on, we want to see

some of it going on particular

areas.

The Greens have said they

want £100 million the council.

£14

million excess, which in

governmental terms is nothing, so

then you begin to say...

If these

commission figures are accurate,

they are forecasting slightly lower

tax ironing because he would

hundreds 60 boys extra money raised

by the tax increases but -- they are

forecasting slightly lower tax

because the 164 is extra money

raised by the tax increases.

When

the rises start coming through, that

will hurt people, so there will be

demands on the key thing --

degreasing incomes so a small tax

rise might not be enough.

We should

make the point, average incomes will

not start to rise until sometime in

the 2020 ball.

Not just in Scotland,

they are stagnating across Britain.

And indeed beyond. Brexit, Theresa

May, she's done a bit better over

the last few weeks.

G seems to have

done but I don't know that I am

alone in thinking this is as clear

as mud. Where does it go from here?

We hear the tricky stuff starts now.

It sounded like the past year or so

was pretty tricky. I think there's a

lot of us sitting here with

everything crossed, wanting to trust

that this process will bring us out

the other end less badly beaten

perhaps than we might be when we

look at the fiscal report and it is

talking about a people of working

age, vast increasing numbers of

people older than working age. We

have got serious issues I find

scary.

In defence of this perceived

chaos, it's a negotiation. There

will always be grandstanding,

crises, last-minute meetings but I

suppose Theresa May can say here we

are, exactly where I wanted to be by

now, which is that we have maybe not

in agreement on a transition period

but we have got the first stage

over.

Surprisingly enough, they have

actually made progress because it

seemed for a while nothing would

happen and it was a wall or two

conflicting points that just

couldn't actually be resolved and we

just hit something that couldn't go

any further over Ireland in

particular. Then surprisingly

enough, as Penny says, it's

completely unclear what they've

actually decided and talking about

alignment and in what way alignment

is different from being...

It's too

near Christmas, let's not get into

that!

Theresa May got a standing

ovation from European leaders. They

have moved on to talking about

things like trade and security and

future relationships so its progress

and I never expected to see this

side.

Some of the things the fiscal

commission says, as Ivan Mackay was

pointing out, arguably it goes to

the need to go to differential

immigration policy across the UK and

for the Scottish Government to have

powers of its own in that regard. Do

you think that will come a big issue

in the next few is?

I do. You saw

both poles of in your earlier

interview, the Conservatives are

looking for growth in productivity

through retraining and making the

workforce more productive and SMP

are saying we need more people

invited in in order to increase the

volume of people who can do the jobs

and that, when it gets down to it,

that will become the core of Brexit

because in the Brexit supporting

areas, people coming in and taking

jobs, that comes back time and time

again for the reason they voted for

Brexit and if it starts to look as

though that is one of the problems

with our economy because we can't

get them in, you can't say... If you

looked difficult to resolve things

up until now, that really just

begins to look insoluble.

Sexual

harassment was a big issue later on

in the year in both Westminster and

Holyrood. I was struck today that

there is a piece by Jess Phillips,

Labour MP in the Observer where she

says look, I go round in Westminster

everyday brushing against coming up

against men whom I'm sure have been

accused of serious sexual

harassment. Sometimes I find women

MPs crying on the phone telling me

about what has happened and nothing

is happening, unlike Hollywood,

unlike some of the corporations

where this has become an issue and

some of the TV shows, particularly

in America. She says nothing has

been done.

It has got to start

happening. These stories are not

going to go away. I think all of us

know if people perhaps deserved to

have thing is pointed at them that

haven't yet been pointed. We will

wait and see how you and holds --

unfolds but it has be taken, it

cannot go back to business as usual

and things to revert as they have

been because it is absolutely not

acceptable and in this year has

taught us anything, surely it is

that.

You cover Holyrood a lot, is

your impression that the problem is

perhaps less acute than is in

Westminster or are they doing more

or less in Holyrood to combat it?

In

Holyrood it is less acute, that's

not to say it's not there, it's in

all workplaces I think everywhere

but generally it's not part of the

culture in the way it seems to be at

Westminster where it's really

endemic, accepted, considered the

norm, in fact, from what we can

understand where is in Holyrood,

they are actually also making very

definite attempts to make change.

Can you do it into a crew of three

words, what would you like to see

next year?

Social care, attention on

that and something done about the

plight of people in Scotland and not

to ignore social care.

More on

poverty, Universal Credit, lifting

people away from food banks.

Do you

mean an increase in Universal Credit

or get rid of it?

Just sort out the

issues and delays.

Happy Brexit.

Right, that sounds like an easy one

to achieve!

That's it.

I'll be back with Politics Scotland

on Wednesday afternoon.

The Sunday Politics will

be back in January -

until then, have a very Merry

Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Goodbye.