25/02/2018 Sunday Politics Scotland

Coming up and today's programme,

having knocked cabinet heads

together Theresa May lays out her

plan for Brexit, but can she keep a

low party onside? We will be

speaking to a former Tory leader.

Waiting in the wings is this man but

can Jeremy Corbyn unite opposing

forces in his own party, and

convince the electorate he would do

a better job Brexit?

Forthcoming local elections in

England should give a clue about

outcomes of the two parties.

And on Sunday Politics Scotland,

I'll be asking the Scottish Higher

Education Minister whether strikes

by university lecturers over

pensions are symptomatic

of a bigger funding problem.

All that coming up in the programme.

And as usual, we've got three

Westminster insiders who will take

us behind the headlines and tell us

what's really going on.

Today I'm joined by Iain Dale,

Kate McCann and Steve Richards.

Next month, Theresa May

will begin formal negotiations

with her European counterparts

on what the future EU-UK

relationship should look like.

This week, she will lay

out her vision of life after Brexit

and she'll declare that our "best

days really do lie ahead of us".

EU leaders beg to differ though,

and have already taken

some pre-emptive swipes.

But, while the talk is likely

to get tough in Brussels,

the key battles could be

played out closer to home.

It's known as the Brexit war

committee, but the smiles suggested

an outbreak of peace among

the Cabinet's big beasts.

For now, at least.

They'd arrived at Chequers,

the Prime Minister's country

retreat, on Thursday afternoon,

to try and agree a common position

for the next round of Brexit talks.

Eight hours later, ministers

were apparently still smiling,

having agreed on something called

ambitious managed divergences

and future trade with the EU.

One of those present

said the Prime Minister

had played a blinder,

but will it be enough to hold

the whole party together?

Earlier in the week,

a letter from the pro-Brexit

European reform group found its way

into the newspapers,

politely reminding the Prime

Minister that when we leave,

nothing but full regulatory autonomy

will be good enough.

But it's Remain-minded Tories

who could throw a real

spanner in the works.

Conservative MP Anna Soubry

announced on Thursday she had...

"Tabled a new amendment to the trade

bill to force the government to form

a customs union with the EU".

27 other EU countries also

need to be won over.

Brexit Secretary David Davis

was in Vienna on Tuesday,

colourfully describing what Brexit

will not look like.

They fear that Brexit will lead

to an Anglo-Saxon race

to the bottom, with Britain plunged

into a Mad Max style world borrowed

from dystopian fiction.

These fears about a race

to the bottom are based on nothing.

But the EU are not convinced.

European Council President Donald

Tusk arguing that the UK

was still trying to

cherry pick its future

relationship with the EU.

I'm afraid that the UK position

today is based on pure illusion.

Until now, Jeremy Corbyn

has played his Brexit

cards close to his chest.

He may begin to reveal his hand

in a major speech tomorrow and this

week he unusually raised Brexit

at Prime Minister's Questions.

This government isn't on the road

to Brexit, Mr Speaker,

it's on the road to nowhere.

Can I congratulate the right

honourable gentleman,

because normally he stands up

every week and asks me

to sign a blank cheque.

And I know he likes cheques, but,

really, that is terribly...

That was a reference to reports

that the Labour leader had held

meetings with the former

Czechoslovakian spy in the 1980s.

Mr Corbyn hit back at those reports

with a social media video,

in which he said rather cryptically,

"Change is coming to

the newspaper industry".

Publishing these ridiculous smears

that have been refuted by Czech

officials shows just how worried

the media bosses are at the prospect

of a Labour government.

They are right to be.

Tory MP Ben Bradley had to apologise

to Mr Corbyn over a tweet

about the allegations, saying...

But it wasn't all Brexit

and brush passes.

The Prime Minister began

the week announcing a review

into higher education.

We now have one of the most

expensive systems of university

tuition in the world.

Theresa May wants to demonstrate

her government isn't

simply defined by Brexit,

but navigating the complications

of leaving the EU is

an all consuming task.

If she can avoid it

consuming her career, that

could be her greatest achievement.

Steve, Kate and Iain

were watching that with me.

Let's chew over what has been

happening this week. People saying

that meeting at Chequers, the Prime

Minister played a blinder and got

the Cabinet to agree. Outside the

Cabinet, it looks like she is

assaulted on all sides by

pro-Brexit, pro had Brexit Tory MPs,

the EU, it's not as easy as all

that?

It is never going to be easy

for a Prime Minister who hasn't got

a Parliamentary majority. She is

very resilient. Whenever she's

knocked down, she bounces back

again. I think she has had quite a

reasonable week this week, starting

off on the front foot and tuition

fees and ending the week with the

meeting at Chequers. I think a lot

of commentators thought it was going

to be a disaster, that they would

agree on the way board. The proof in

the pudding will be on what she says

in the speech on Friday. We have

Jeremy Corbyn mandates and

effectively she has to up with

probably quite a lot more detail

than she has done in the past. I

think they have the basis for that

now.

Kate, we've talked a lot on

this programme about the arguments

within the Cabinet but now it looks

like the focus is now on the wider

Conservative Party. You have

probably remain MPs like Anna Soubry

saying they want to stay in the

customs union, a letter from pro

except MPs like Jacob Rees-Mogg

saying they want full regulatory

divergence. Which group is likely to

win the day?

I think what is most

interesting this week will be Jeremy

Corbyn's speech on Monday. That

comes before Theresa May's speech on

Friday. That will help tip those two

sites, as it were, and we will see

what will happen with the customs

union. Jeremy Corbyn is likely to

say he would like to stay in a

customs union that is likely to make

the Tory MPs on the Tories I'd like

Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan, who

want to back and push for a customs

union feel like they have more

control over that. Whether it is

likely not promote we are yet to

see. If Labour is shifting its

customs union position that much,

that gives Tory MPs a lot more

strength in the House of Commons

because the government has already

pushed back a vote on the customs

union because they are worried about

what is going happen.

Those pro

remain Tories on the Labour Party

believe they have the Parliamentary

arithmetic to force a defeat on the

government over the customs union,

are they right about that?

Certainly

in theory they are right. There are

enough Conservative MPs and if the

opposition vote for this, the

government faces a defeat with

profound consequences. We will not

know probably until the moment when

the vote takes place. It will be a

moment of one of these great

Parliamentary dramas, where there

will be huge pressure on Tory MPs

not to go along with this and say,

you are in alliance with Jeremy

Corbyn and so on. We won't know

until the vote but in theory they

have the numbers. It would be a game

changer if this amendment was

carried.

This is fascinating. It

means the power has gone to the

house of parliament and has left

number ten and the Cabinet, Hilary

Benn described this as a backbencher

's parliament because the government

doesn't have a majority. Is that

where the authority lies now?

In

some ideas. I'm not sure if I agree

about the Parliamentary arithmetic

because some will die with the

Conservatives, and we will hear from

one later, Frank Field. There are a

group of them. I wonder about the

numbers on the Tory benches, there

is a hard-core group of about ten or

a dozen that you think might well

support Anna Soubry's amendment but

I don't really see it going much

beyond that. But you are right, it

will be on a bit of a knife edge. If

it came to the government were

defeated on this, then we are in

uncharted waters, because the

government could actually make it a

vote of confidence. It would be very

unusual to do one on an amendment to

a bill but it is possible, or they

could call a vote of confidence that

would put Anna Soubry and all the

others in

others in a bit a tricky position.

If they did vote against the

government on a vote of confidence,

they would have to be deselected.

We

will talk about that throughout the

programme.

Listening to all that is the former

Conservative leader,

and leading Brexit campaigner,

Iain Duncan Smith.

Welcome to the programme. Do you

accept there is a significant chance

the government could be defeated on

a customs union in the House of

Commons question when you don't have

a majority there is a chance to be

defeated on anything.

I love the way

the media looks at this cost would

take a pace back, it's a government

that won the election and didn't get

an overall majority so it means

almost anything anyone is upset

about could cause a problem for the

government, fact of life. Brexit is

just one, it's a very big issue but

one of those, there has been other

issues and there will be on the

issue is following through.

It

matters to you whether we are in a

customs union with the EU?

Lots of

things deeply matter to me, beyond

Brexit. But yes. I think the key

thing is not what I believe but the

Prime Minister has been pretty clear

about this from the word go, way

before the election, during the

election importantly and even

subsequently she has made it very

clear we are taking back control,

leaving the customs union, single

market, and at the same time making

sure we get outside of the remit of

the court of justice. She has been

clear about this.

Let's pick a bit of that. In her

Lancaster House speech she said she

wanted us to have a customs

agreement with the EU, not a customs

union but customs agreement. This

controversial amendment Anna Soubry

another Superdome says they want an

agreement that enables the UK to be

able to participate in a customs

union with the EU, is there space

for that?

It depends what the detail

is. The government set it out quite

rightly on having a proper free

trade arrang ement. You can describe

a free-trade arrangement in all

different ways but a free-trade

arrangement is about us having a

clear ability to sell-out goods into

the European Union them to sell us

without artificial trade barriers

that will require arrangements that

out customs arrangements. The big

them to sell us without artificial

trade barriers and that will require

arrangements that out customs

arrangements. The behind having a

customs union and being outside a

free-trade arrangement is we are 90%

of the graces in the global economy

in the next two years, we will be

free to do that. If we are in a

customs union, you to make trade

arrangements with America,

Australia, India, where ever we want

to, where 90% of the growth is in

the global economy in the next two

years, we will be free to do that.

If we are in a customs union, you

agree do that and therefore we would

have to what the European Union to

what the European certainly be

outvoted endlessly. This is about

where does the power light and we

would almost certainly be outvoted

endlessly. This is about where does

the with the rest of the world in a

moment but exactly what you

describe, the free-trade arrangement

with no tariffs with the EU

and the

freedom to make those deals, that is

what the EU called cherry picking?

What they really called cherry

picking is this arrangement we are

talking about now, a customs union.

They have been pretty clear about

this. They said it is not

acceptable. Let's look at it from

the European Union to make those

agreements?

I want to get into the

detail on free-trade deals with the

rest of the world in a moment but

exactly what you describe, the

free-trade arrangement with no

tariffs with the EU and the freedom

to make those deals, that is what

the EU called cherry picking?

What

they really called cherry picking is

this arrangement we are talking

about now, a customs union. They

have been pretty clear about this.

They said it is not acceptable.

Let's look at it from the European

Union's standpoint. We constantly

look at what the UK once. You use is

certainly not going to agree going

into a customs union where we will

then have over any future agreement,

so we will outvote all 27 because we

that would depend on the agreement.

...

That would depend on the

agreement. The EU wants would have

enormous power against them, they an

agreement, we would have enormous

power against them, they won't agree

because it is not in their interests

to do I think what is more in

arrangement. There are lots of

countries that are already breaking

ranks with the commission about

this, Italy, Sweden, Holland said we

have to have a free-trade

arrangement.

They are not on that

yet, they are still on the

implementation phase. When it comes

to free trade, I am very, very

certain that they will want to make

an arrangement with us because it is

in their interests, arguably more

than us. , they want a free-trade

arrangement. There are lots of

countries that are already breaking

ranks with the commission about

this, Italy, Sweden, Holland said we

have to have a free-trade

arrangement. They are not on that

yet, they are still on the

implementation phase. When it comes

to free-trade, I am very, very

certain that they will want to make

an arrangement with us because it is

in their interests, arguably more

than us let's move on to trade with

the rest of the world. Why do so

absolutely convinced that the

ability to do with Australia, China,

the ones the EU has at the,

different from the ones the EU has

at increasing our trade with these

countries from inside the EU? Their

biggest

are so terribly important?

Why can't we be increasing our trade

with these countries from inside the

EU?

Their biggest free-trade we are

naturally, the UK, more than any

other country in the European

country, arguably more than most in

the world, a free-trade for free

trade the WTO has a ready said they

love the idea of us coming back as a

full voting member because we will

argue for free trade. By, global

free trade and services, which stop

because the European Union has not

wanted to push the site at all.

Do

so much more trade with China than

us from within the EU?

That is to do

with what Germany says they want to

do and go and do it Germany do so

much more trade with China than us

from within the EU? That is to do

with what Germany says they want to

do and go and do it.

Being a member

of the EU has being a member of the

EU be outside the that so why do we

have to be outside you get rid of

artificial tarry

that is not

parallel argument. By getting trade

arrangements you get rid of

artificial and delays at the borders

that allows you to increase your

trade. We want from where we are.

But at the same time, incoming stuff

is just as important. The people who

will benefit most from a free-trade

arrangement of the poorest in

society because the cost of food,

footwear and clothing will almost

certainly our trade from where we

are. But at the same time, incoming

stuff is just as important.

You might as much larger and more

important market. The skill is not

that important. The key thing is, do

you value a marketplace, is it worth

doing business with? Financial

services is an important are great

-- an important area you want to

strike agreements with. The UK's

dominant in financial services and

you cannot get a free-trade

agreement within the single market

at the moment. You cannot sell

insurance in Germany without having

a company in Germany to sell it.

They have never wanted to do

financial service is free trade. We

will be in a much better state

globally. You have seen the increase

in New Zealand's trade when they

went for free-trade and got rid of

their trade barriers.

A dramatic

increase in no global position. The

tragedy led to this and they reckon

a free-trade deal with America we

did 0.02% to the UK's GDP.

I have a

bone to pick with the BBC. There has

been a brilliant economic report are

independent, which has been given

very little coverage which is taken

apart the model that the Treasury

and the government put together. For

example, dealing with this. The

reason why you arrive at this, it

depends on what you assume to be the

actual savings on the border. The

government has only assumed a 4%

saving on getting rid of tariff

barriers. Almost every economist in

the world agrees it is nearer to 20%

saving.

This study has been covered

on the BBC it was on the Daily

Politics on Friday. It assumes zero

tariffs on absolutely everything. It

is an extremely optimistic forecast.

It assumes a 10% tariff at the end

of the day, it assumes tariffs

falling to an average of 10%, not

zero. If they went to zero it would

improve it even more. I have read

this report backwards.

One of the

officers says that while there will

be benefits from free-trade deals,

over time it would be likely we

would mostly eliminate manufacturing

in UK by the things that would be

worth it and it should not us.

That

was one of the original suggestions,

much earlier.

But he was one of the

authors of this report.

He was but

he has accepted this is not going to

be the case within this report.

They're assuming that the border

changes will mean less of a tariff

on the borders at average. That is

what happens in most other

free-trade arrangements. The point

I'm making is it has a massive

benefit to the UK for us to do this.

That is why going for a free-trade

agreement with the European Union is

the right way to go. We forget what

Europe itself once.

Labour is in a

complete mess about this. We will

talk to this about -- we will talk

to them about that.

They were in

favour of leaving the customs union

and the single market and Barry

Gardner said it was making a vassal

state if you stayed in the customs

union. We will ask Labour themselves

about that. Theresa May has made it

clear where out of the single market

and Customs union and I say to my

colleagues who want to change some

of this, just be very careful on

this one, because being invited into

a Labour Party tactical game which

will end up in real damage the

United Kingdom.

Iain Duncan Smith,

thank you very much for talking to

us.

So much for the Conservatives,

but what about Labour?

In 24 hours' time,

Jeremy Corbyn will give

a keynote speech on Brexit.

All the signs are that he will back

the UK staying permanently

in a customs union with the EU.

But over 80 senior Labour figures

have today urged Mr Corbyn to go

further and support staying

in the single market as well.

But how would that go down

with the millions of Labour

voters who backed Brexit?

Here's what the Shadow Brexit

Secretary, Keir Starmer,

said this morning.

Well, we have long championed

being in a customs union with the EU

and the benefits of that.

Obviously, it is the only way,

realistically, to get

tariff free access.

It is really important

for our manufacturing base

and nobody can answer the question

how you keep your commitment to no

hard border in Northern Ireland

without a customs union.

We have always said

that the benefits of the single

market must be there in the final

agreement and that is a really

important commitment

because in the end, however

you arrive at that, in whatever

the instrument or agreement it is,

the benefits have got to be there.

Labour is agreed on that end state.

There is obviously an argument

about how we get there.

To discuss this I'm joined by two

Labour MPs who fall on opposing

sides of the Brexit argument.

Frank Field campaigned to leave

the EU and Stella Creasy

is a supporter of the pro-European

group Open Britain.

Thank you both for coming on the

programme. Stella Creasy, you have

signed this letter to Jeremy Corbyn

to be asking not only to stay in the

customs union but also the single

market. If you're in both of them, I

really delivering on the referendum

Brexit result?

There are lots of

different combinations that still

see is leaving the European Union

but do what Labour people across

this country, and that is why there

is support across the country and

the party for this letter, which is

to protect the jobs and incomes. We

know that Brexit, any of the models,

I am horrified to your Iain Duncan

Smith dismissing the idea that

manufacturing may be at stake or the

numbers don't matter. It is a

massive hit on our economy. It is a

massive hit took peace in Northern

Ireland if we leave the customs

union. These are called labour

values and that is what we are

standing up for.

You're asking to

stay in the single market. The

problem with that is you thought an

election last year under a manifesto

which said that free movement will

end.

You cannot do both. I am in the

migration committee on the Council

of Europe. Lots of people are

willing to talk about how we make

freedom of movement work. They

recognise politicians have not got

it right across the continent. If we

are not fighting to stay in the

single market we cannot have that

conversation about what the reformed

freedom of movement might look like.

I think freedom of movement is an

important right for people in this

country. I do not want to have to

see the kids in Walthamstow

Birkenhead that their ability to

work for a company that has a base

outside the UK will be hampered by

decisions we've made. That puts them

in an austerity Britain and I do not

want to do that.

Frank Field, does

this sound like a Brexit you could

sell to any leave photo?

No, and you

know perfectly well we cannot sell

it. I am looking forward to what

Jeremy Corbyn says tomorrow because

you have hyped it up. On every vote

we have had Onuora before he came --

before he became leader, Jeremy

Corbyn and I were deeply suspicious

of this organisation which is

corrupt, it has never got its

accounts audited, it is bankrupt.

Whatever he says tomorrow he will

not be arguing to stay in the EU, he

will be arguing for the customs

union?

Please, let me finish. It is

deeply corrupt. It is bankrupt. It

has destabilised Europe with all

this pretence about it has brought

peace. Look what we have done to the

area around Russia. Given there are

number of states within Europe who

depend on our contribution, we

should be voting for a clear

decorate -- a clear declaration, we

want a free-trade area, and we have

money. What are you going to choose.

I think we should take the gloves

off in these negotiations and look

at the real power structure. They

need our money, and for reasons

which Stella Creasy has put forward,

we need access to a free-market

arrangement.

What is your problem

with Jeremy Corbyn saying that the

Labour policy will be too clearly

stay in a customs union?

Two things.

One, it goes against what we said at

the election. It goes against all

the scare tactics during the

campaign, all the major figures were

saying, you know, if you vote here,

you're leaving the customs union,

you're leaving the free market.

There was no question about what the

referendum was deciding. And the

politics of this is, are we going to

be run by a London agenda? I know

Stella Creasy has got other issues

that she reaches out across the

country, but this is essentially a

London agenda against Labour voters,

particularly in the North.

THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE

You have got the mayor of Liverpool

who signed this letter, the leader

of Newcastle Council.

You and I

would in the lobby fighting together

against this government's welfare

cuts.

£12 billion cuts.

That is

nothing to do with this. It

absolutely is. Even the bare minimal

model we are talking about would be

ahead on our economy and the

communities we represent. How can we

vote Forestieri the? How can you do

that to the voters, the People who

work in the Vauxhall plants in the

Wirral who are frightened they are

about to lose their jobs. How can

you do that to the People in

Northern Ireland?

Let me answer you,

please. We have been through the

courts. There is no problem about

the Good Friday Agreement being

challenged by this at all. We have

got time, I am happy to discuss it.

I think there are problems with the

Good Friday Agreement and a customs

union.

No, it will remain. If we

have time, I would love to discuss

that with you. About austerity, can

I answer that? We are net

contributor. We will have money to

be brought back. While some people

have signed the order leaders even

there, when you look at the

parliamentary arithmetic, Mrs May

almost hollowed out our vote in the

seats were only kept by a handful of

votes. These are seats which voted

very clearly to leave. That is the

act of faith. I know there are

problems about how do you give the

electorate the sovereignty to decide

an issue and then bring it back into

a representative parliamentary

system, but the vote was cleared to

leave. The bill is about leaving and

whether we support that or not and

if we do not support that, I think

Labour voters will draw their own

messages in the North.

Please do not

drive Boris's bars for the People of

those communities. You're saying

that somehow we will get money back.

All the evidence shows is that any

money you get back will be dwarfed

by what we will lose. You're talking

about £1 billion coming back.

THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE

You can talk across me all you like,

the numbers are there in the

government's on analysis. That is

what we have to front up to the

communities we represent.

Are you

going to write on the People's

decision to leave?

You're coming out

with all these things, we will stay

in a customs union, we will stay in

a single market, the decision was

quite clear to leave. In the north,

Labour voters voted very, very

clearly. You going to rat on them or

not? Never mind about buses and all

the rest of it.

It does matter. Let her answer. It

is about the evidence that we now

have. Democracy did not stop the day

after the referendum.

People have a

right to see the detail.

Of course

they do. Do you accept that the

government figures show clearly that

if we stay in the European economic

arrangement, which is out of the EU,

we are still going to take a 16 pelt

-- a £16 billion hit on our economy?

That worse anything you get back.

This letter is not just signed from

people across the country but people

across the trade union movement

because they because they know the

hard Brexit the government is

pushing for and why it matters

Jeremy Corbyn is fighting for the

customs union and single market

membership.

It means jobs and wages.

What we should be fighting forest

sector agreements with the European

Union. We want a free-trade area.

They have always opposed the

activities of the city. There is no

need to worry about the city. There

is a need to worry about

manufacturing and we will make

special arrangements with them. The

issue is clear, do we disguise the

fact by pretending we're going to

have a customs union or some other

arrangement which counters what the

clear declaration of northern Labour

voters actually said?

They have

changed their side. A third of

Labour voters did vote for leave.

You risk them abandoning the party.

This is not about rerunning the

referendum. It is about what kind of

deal do we get and is it in the best

interests of Britain. I believe

voters across this country have the

right to know what is likely to

happen.

THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE

Of course they have a right.

A right

to every bit of information going.

The key thing, we have had a

referendum and we rarely use

referendums for this reason, they

are difficult to implement. The

referendum decision was clear and

particularly clear in the North from

Labour voters. I want to keep faith

with them. I voted to come out. I

know it is harder for people who

voted to stay in. Are we going to

dress up a retreat, Agassi?

Then

there is a complicated decision for

you to make. We've been talking

about the amendment put forward by

Anna Soubry and others, an amendment

to the trade bill that will be voted

on in a few time. There is a

potential to defeat the government

is Jeremy Corbyn comes out in favour

of a customs union and whips his MPs

to vote that way. If you had the

opportunity to win a vote against

the government and bring down

Theresa May, would you vote with her

to keep her in office or against?

That is not the choice and you know

that. That will be the choice on the

day. We will have a decision, do we

continue to implement the referendum

decision. I shall be voting for

that.

Even if that is voting to prop

up the government?

It is not about

propping up the government it is

about implementing a decision of the

People. The government has a

majority on this. The idea that Anna

Soubry is going to lead all these

people into the labour lobbies is

just fairy tales. But we will see on

the night. The government will win

comfortably and double figures on

this issue.

Frank Field, Stella

Creasy, we will have to leave it

there. Thank you very much.

The local elections in May will see

many seats in the big metropolitan

councils in England up for grabs,

and the Conservatives may need

to brace for a difficult night.

A YouGov poll predicts

Labour could seize several

Conservative councils in London,

including one the Tories

have never lost before.

Emma Vardy looks ahead.

Not since the swinging '60s has

anyone done better in local

elections than Labour

could be about to.

A recent YouGov poll is predicting

Labour will sweep London

with the best results for any

party since 1968.

One of the most enduring Tory

strongholds is here.

To this day, Westminster,

with its largely affluent

population of voters,

has never had a Labour-run

authority, but if the poll is to be

believed, that could now change.

This council has been

Conservative-controlled ever

since the borough was created

in the 1960s.

But if the swing was big enough

to turn this council red,

that would top off a very good

night for Labour.

The Conservatives are at position

where they could potentially

be left with just one,

maybe two councils in all of London.

I think that would be a bad night

for the Conservatives,

but it is possible.

They are having to fight to hang

on almost everywhere

they still have representation.

But away from London,

it could be a different story.

Birmingham City Council has been

controlled by Labour since 2012.

They hold around two-thirds

of the seats here, but there

is anger over a bin dispute that

lasted for months and left tons

of rubbish on the streets

uncollected, and resentment over

budget cuts that are

affecting local services.

It does not matter who is in because

there is nothing between them,

that is the problem,

because Birmingham is basically

screwed by central government,

who have reduced all of our grants.

There has been a lot of problems

with the bin collections.

Yes, there have.

Oh, yes.

The Labour run council

got the blame for that?

Yes, I would say so.

The more it dragged

on, certainly, yes.

This will be the first all-out

election for Birmingham City Council

since boundary changes,

so there are 101 seats

here all up for grabs.

It is a place Labour should do well,

but could the party be

punished over those bins?

Back in the summer, of course,

we had the bin strike.

It was not the city's

greatest moment in time.

When I became leader of the council,

I pledged we would resolve that

dispute, which we have now done.

We, the Labour Party

here in Birmingham, are committed

to maintaining weekly bin

collections going forward

for the next four years,

a commitment I've yet to hear

from either of the

other two parties.

Here in Birmingham, the council tax

has gone up over 20% in seven years,

but services have gone down,

and people are seeing rubbish

left on their streets,

and they feel it is time

for a change.

There are plenty of other

places who survive

on fortnightly bin collections.

With council budgets

being constrained, is that

not a sensible option?

In Birmingham, we are absolutely

clear that weekly bin

collections need to remain.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats

and the Greens remain much

stronger in local government

than they are in Parliament,

and in May, they will be

fighting to increase

their local authority presence.

While Ukip are likely to continue

to struggle to reverse

the party's decline.

But if the story of the night

is the biggest Labour

success since the '60s,

any high-profile defeats in Tory

strongholds could start to make some

Conservative MPs worry

about their constituencies ahead

of the next general election.

Steve, Kate and Iain

are still with me.

Let's pick up on the local

elections. Kate, should Theresa May

be deeply worried about this, what

she expected a bad night and what

might the consequences be?

No doubt

she will be worried but my favourite

thing is Everything is underlined by

the fact people care more about

things than other things that is

what politics comes down to, at the

end of the day. I think Theresa May

will be worried. -- it comes down

bins. It is a battle ground for

those parties. Places like Haringey,

if you see what has happened to

Labour in those areas, and how

powerful momentum and the left have

become in local politics, you see

how much it matters to Labour. I

think the Tories will be worried,

particularly about London. As the BT

said, Labour expect to do quite well

and that is not going to look very

good. Brandon Lewis, the new

chairman of the party, said last

week we expect big losses in London.

He is setting that already. I think

the Tory party is worried. In areas

like Birmingham and other areas

around the country, Brexit is likely

to be important and I think that's

why it comes back to labour being

modelled on Brexit. People vote with

their feet. If the Tories can win

back some seats like burning in

other places, it might not be a

massive all-out loss lost them on

the night.

Expectation management

already being Manoj

already being Manoj -- being

managed. Actual voters telling us

what they think. Did they have

consequences that Parliamentary

politics?

They could do this time.

It reminds me, Steve will remember

this, 1990 when the Tories did

disastrously in local elections.

Kenneth Baker went out on the

streets and exempted we kept once

loved. I don't think that will

happen this time. Kate is right,

Brandon Lewis, the Tory party

chairman has already started to

manage expectations. He generally

believe they are in for a drubbing,

particularly in London. These will

last up for grabs in 2014 when Ukip

are doing well. In the last year,

Ukip's vote has virtually

disappeared. So all three other

parties, their votes have gone up in

by-elections. It depends where that

vote goes, Wilbur Liberal Democrats

be able to hold onto the seats they

won in that year? -- Wilbur Liberal

Democrats be able to hold onto the

six? I think it will be a drumming

but I think it will be patchy. Andy

Street has been reasonably popular

in the West Midlands. If they do

that they will have a 1990 situation

and that is all they will talk

about.

Even if they lose

Westminster?

Probably.

will be confirmed. Theresa May has

been in a fragile position since the

general election and that will be

confirmed. But by that point Brexit

will be reaching or coming close to

one of its several climactic son I

think that will shape the national

picture. The local elections will be

really important for local

government, who inherit the

nightmarish budget. It won't change

the national picture very much.

Iain

said Ukip's vote has been falling

and they have had their troubles

recently as well. Important to see

where their vote goes and confirms

we are moving back to two party

politics maybe?

I think it does

nationally but locally it's a

different picture because the Ukip

vote tends to go on all kinds of

directions. It doesn't necessarily

go where you think it will. So the

Liberal Democrats and the Greens do

quite well at local elections,

whereas nationally they don't do

very well at all. I think sometimes

you do see people who would vote for

any other party going for any other

party and not necessarily the Tories

and Labour. I think it comes down to

how much this comes down to Brexit.

Do people care more about Brexit or

bins question mark in areas like

London, I think Brexit and bigger

national issues will have a bearing.

Brexit one way or another will help

with your bins?

London has become a

Labour city. Huge capital city with

millions and millions has become a

Labour stronghold. That is

significant for all kinds of

reasons. It has also become as

strong as it used to be in Scotland.

Even in 2010 in the general

election, London voted Labour by a

wide margin. That is quite a

significant development.

We need to

leave it there just now, coming back

to you later in the programme.

It's coming up to 11.40,

you're watching the Sunday Politics.

Still to come...

Good morning and welcome

to Sunday Politics Scotland.

Coming up on the programme...

University lecturers strike over

threats to their pensions.

As more walk-outs loom,

I'll be speaking to Scotland's

Higher Education Minister.

A Chief Constable says

Police Scotland prevented

him from carrying out

a full-scale investigation.

I think there was a lack of openness

in certain parts of the organisation

and remains so.

and remain so.

And Scotland's role in Brexit -

after another round of talks is it

time the PM and the FM got involved?

University lecturers have begun

a 14-day walk-out in a row

over their pensions.

It's another illustration

of the financial pressures

on higher education,

coming in the same week

the Prime Minister launched

a year-long review of tuition fees

and university funding in England.

Here in Scotland, of course,

opposition to tuition fees

has become something

of an article of faith.

The reality, however,

is complicated,

with critics suggesting the current

policy has failed to substantially

increase the number of students

from disadvantaged backgrounds.

In a moment I'll be speaking

to the minister responsible

for higher education,

but first here's Graham Stewart.

This is an official UCU picket line.

We are asking people not to cross.

They came out to protect their

pensions, not just for themselves,

they insist, but to ensure the

profession continues to attract the

best talent and students get the

highest quality education.

The

employers are pushing through really

Draconian changes to the pension

scheme, which take guaranteed

pension benefits in retirement away

from them, and leave their pension

and retirement to the whims of the

market. It could mean a lecturer

could

could lose up to £10,000 a year once

they have retired.

Universities UK

which represents the employers call

the action disappointing. They say

the pension scheme has a deficit of

£6 billion, and change is essential.

The union says this 14 day walk-out

will affect 145,000 students. There

is plenty of support among the

lecturers, but what do the students

think?

think?

The University of Glasgow is

one of Scotland's throw-mac ancient

universities...

I am a first-year

veterinary student. It is their

well-being, their pension fund, from

what I understand, and if they feel

they are being wronged I support

them in that.

I am studying teaching

at the University of Glasgow. It is

quite irritating but we understand

that they need to be paid well and

supported.

I studied biomedical

engineering. I don't really agree

with it, to be honest. I've liked

everyone should be affected by the

recession and the austerity that is

happening. People at uni should not

be excluded from that.

Unlike their

counterparts in England Scottish

students will not be looking for

refunds on their tuition fees in

this dispute, because students here

haven't paid them since the Labour

and Lib Dem coalition scrap them in

2002, replacing the system with the

graduate endowment. Then, in 2008,

the SNP finally abolished the

graduate endowment essentially

making tuition free. The former

First Minister even had his

opposition to these immortalised in

storm, though Herriot Watt

University seems strangely bashful

about it, refusing us permission to

film this weekend. They are not the

only ones to find the issue of

student debt can prove

controversial.

How different is the

debate in Scotland?

Totally

different because what he is coming

up against is the reality that

students are leaving university in

England with a massive debt burden,

facing huge house prices and

stagnant wages under the Tories. In

Scotland we don't have university

tuition fees so students are not

facing a challenge. Students leave

university with their degree without

a huge debt...

That,, alleging

Scottish students leave without huge

debts, was judged by the journalism

website the Ferret to be mostly

false. On the basis that students

will for still have to mostly cover

their own living expenses. She says

the article claimed she was a liar

and was therefore defamatory. The

average at a debt owed by graduates

from the class of 2017 is £11,740,

significantly lower than other parts

of the UK, but even that is not

necessarily the full picture.

The

repayment system is matter as well

so we know a lot of the debt in

England will never be repaid. In

Scotland, because it is law to start

with, and because we collect debt in

a different way, so we get more out

of people's earnings were quickly,

it is much more likely if you have a

£25,000 debt in Scotland you will

pay off the whole thing, that if you

have a £50,000 debt in England.

That

debt could be more likely to the

shoulders of shoulders of some of

the poorest students.

What the SNP

have done is to slash the amount

available for grants and bursaries

by about 35% and that money

previously went to students from

low-income backgrounds. Now as a

consequence of that decision and

others made by the Scottish

Government these students now we've

university significantly more

in-depth than their more affluent

contemporaries.

A recent report for

the Scottish Government recommended

all students receive an income of

just over £8,000 per year. The

Government is still to it's

considered response.

Goodbye for me.

Goodbye.

Well, with me now is

the Scottish Government's

Higher Education Minister,

Shirley-Anne Somerville.

We will talk about universities in a

moment, but first, Brexit. There is

an article by David Lidington, in

effect Theresa May's deputy, in the

Telegraph today. Basically he

accuses the Scottish Government of

putting Britain in a situation where

it "Could be struggling to make its

way in a new world outside the EU

because of its insistence on having

everything from Europe devolved." As

a representative of the Scottish

Government, what is your response?

The Scottish Government is not

against common agreement in

principle but they do have to be in

Scotland's interests, so this is an

issue about power is being

repatriated from Europe back to the

Scottish Parliament, coming to the

Scottish Parliament and not getting

stuck in Westminster. Surely, it

should be the right thing to do to

bring those powers to the Scottish

Parliament, to let the Parliament

decide what is right for Scotland

and what...

His argument is if you

bring back powers to Scotland on

things like, all the things I have

mentioned, regulations on bleach and

paints, or on standards, that when

Britain is negotiating trade

agreements with third-party

countries, unless there is a single

UK market, unless it is known to

those third parties, it could stop

these trade agreements going ahead.

That is the point he is making.

The

Scottish Government and Scottish

Parliament will not stand in the way

of a common-sense approach. As I

said right at the beginning we are

not against common agreement in

principle, but by any other

standards this is about a power grab

from Westminster. We are asking for

the powers being repaid created from

Europe to come to the Scottish

Parliament, and this is not an issue

for one party but it is an issue for

the parliament and there has been

cross-party agreement that they

should be looked at very carefully

-- the powers being repatriated from

Europe.

Is it your view that if

these common frameworks are put into

place they should be approved by the

Scottish Parliament? They shouldn't

just be negotiated between

Government ministers? They should

act to be approved by the Scottish

Parliament.

We are looking at a

number of powers coming back from

Europe, they should come back to the

Scottish Parliament for the Scottish

Parliament to decide what is right

for Scotland. I don't think that is

too much to ask.

Sure, but the

crucial point is if this argument on

common frameworks, you would like

them to be approved by the Scottish

Parliament rather than just either

unilaterally decided by Westminster

or just dawned with backroom

negotiations.

I don't think we want

to see backroom negotiations or

anything decided simply by

Westminster. There are many powers

that will be coming back to

Scotland, that should be coming back

to Scotland. The important thing is

the Scottish Parliament has an

understanding about what powers the

going to get back. We hear lots of

kind words, you know, from

Westminster sometimes. They have

obviously now decided to play a

heavy hand but we are not seeing any

detail about how this will impact on

the powers that should be coming

back to Scotland and until we see

that it is a game of smoke and

mirrors, unfortunately, from

Westminster. It back to university

strike. Graham said in the film that

Scottish tunes won't be demanding

compensation because they don't pay

tuition fees but there are

international students in

international students in Scotland

-- brake-mac onto the university

straight. There are international

students who want to be compensated.

People outside the EU are paying

£60,000 a year plus two study in

Scotland, and they see the lecturers

are to be on strike -- paying

£16,000 per year plus to study. They

say that money is helping fund the

no tuition fees policies, so is

there a case for their compensation?

Delight it is very disappointing to

see we have got to the point where

you see you have come out on strike

--

yes, it is very disappointing to

see that we have got to the point.

Where the UCU have come out on

strike. This is not in the best

interests of our universities are

the lecturers, and most particularly

the students, so I would want to see

them getting back round the table

for meaningful negotiations next

week.

What about the issue of

compensation? To the students have a

case?

This is something very

different in Scotland, as you have

said. Our student stored page

version fees. We have our two days

of strikes, both sides look to go

round the table next week although

it is with some preconditions,

unfortunately, from the University

side. Let's see what comes from

that.

OK, but even if something

comes from that some of the students

will say, hang on, there have

already been strikes and we should

be compensated.

I appreciate some

students will be frustrated from

that but we are seeing talks next

week.

The talks will not be on

compensation but on the substance of

the issues in the dispute. The

students are saying, hang on, quite

apart from the nature of the dispute

which is essentially about pensions,

good luck to them, but we have

already lost time, and we have paid

for the time we have lost, and we

should be compensated.

There is some

debate about whether there will be

on the substantive issue of the

pensions next week and that is why I

am calling for meaningful or but

certainly I will be asking to speak

to the principles and to the

University Scotland next week. The

breakdown further because we do need

to discuss very seriously the impact

it has had on students.

So you might

consider competition?

I will speak

to the rest is next week to raise my

concern about what has been

happening with students. We have a

different situation in Scotland,

only affecting of course

only affecting of course some of

universities, not all.

What would

you say to an international student

who says, hang on a minute, you and

your Government encouraged me to

come here, and now you won't even

say who will discuss the issue of

compensation? -- you would even say

that you will. It

I don't think it

is helpful for Government ministers

to come on at the weekend before the

talks and to raise the stakes still

further. I have met with the unions,

I will meet with the principles, if

required, if. Next week breakdown,

and let's try to do this in an

meaningful fashion to encourage them

to get the resolution.

Do you back the strikers? There are

concerns from the UC you the trade

union about what is happening to

their pensions. It is for the

universities to go through in

detail. I think it is concerning

that the trade union saying that

there isn't a pension deficit. The

universities are saying there is a

deficit. If we have a disagreement

about the figures on a UK level, we

need to...

need to... Is there an actual

pension deficit there. If there is

no pension deficit then it is very

hard for universities to say it

changes need to be made.

If you cut

their wages and conditions, it

undermines the abilities. That has

been echoed by Jeremy Corbyn. They

are backing the strike but you are

not.

I met with the unions last week

and they described a very

constructive meeting. We have very

good relationships with the main

trade union in Scotland. We have

said that the discussions with

myself and the government have been

constructive and we will encourage

that to continue.

You have said that

students from European Union

countries who start their

countries who start their courses in

2019 will not pay fees. Is that just

for that year will continue.

That

will continue for the duration of

their course.

What if a student

starting 2020?

We will take that

decision at a future date. We have

taken the decision around the

students for the year 2019 earlier

than anywhere else in the UK in an

attempt to give them some assurance.

That is in time for the

universities.

But you don't know

about after that?

We don't know a

lot about what is happening in

Brexit, to be frank. We don't know

if the students will actually have

the right to remain in an

immigration status. We're trying to

encourage EU students to come. It is

very difficult to continue to make

policies.

A lot of people in

Scotland would say this is unfair.

We are leaving the European Union.

Why should EU students be able to

come here and have no tuition fees?

Students from England start on 9000

a year. We charge students from

third-party countries something like

16,000 a year. You could almost

have... You could invest that money

in Scottish universities.

We are

looking -- working with

universities. I will tell you why it

is the right decision to make for

the university students that will

hopefully come in a couple of years'

time. One of the aspects of Scottish

education that makes it the best in

the world is a diverse campus that

we have. We want to encourage people

to come from Europe and further

afield to work, study and live after

that.

But not from England China

would seem?

It is a very important

part to our commitment to the EU. It

is required by DUP legislation.

Which is why there is a difference.

There will be a transition period in

2019. It is very difficult to make

policies on Brexit because of the

uncertainty that is coming from the

UK. We will be in a transition

period for two years. If that

transition requires us to have some

of the same in areas that we want to

see, around Freeman City freedom of

movement. We want to do this because

it is the right thing to do to

encourage students to come here.

And

you very much indeed. Two weeks ago

we were examining the resignation of

Phil Bromley as Chief Constable of

the Scotland.

A few days ago, the force

was in the spotlight again

following a series of stinging

remarks about its "culture

of secrecy" and "ineptitude"

by the chief Constable of Durham,

Michael Barton.

He'd been called in after several

officers investigating leaked

information about the Emma Caldwell

murder inquiry were found

to have obtained data

without judicial permission.

But he told Holyrood's

justice sub-committee that

what he understood to be a full

investigation was downgraded

to an inquiry meaning he had only

restricted access to documents

and was unable to interview

people under caution.

Michael Barton joins me now.

Good morning. You clearly thought

there was a culture of secrecy in

and around the Scotland. Did you

mean by that?

Please remember that I

was asked by Phil Gormley to come in

and do an independent investigation

and that is what they'll and I

thought was the deal. When I

actually got into the bones of this

and started working with the legal

department and the professional

standards department in police

Scotland, they took a slightly

different view. Firstly, they

thought that I should just be doing

an inquiry and in police Scotland

that means I can interview the

officers concerned. Which of course

is severely hampers my dealings with

those people, because if they are in

jeopardy I wouldn't want to speak to

them. The second thing is that in

the legal department, they took a

bizarre interpretation of the rules

in my view. They described some

conversations between senior

officers as legally privileged, when

there wasn't even a legal

professional in the room. Thirdly,

professional standards didn't want

to give me the address of retired

police officers because they said it

was vetted by the Data Protection

Act. I was a title that amused about

how I was going to go and see them.

You think it was an attitude? --

ineptitude.

I am not accusing the

Scotland of ineptitude. They do

fantastic work. 99.9% of the people

in the Scotland should be patted on

the back and applauded by their

local communities. What I talked

about in terms of ineptitude... This

is the other issue will stop I

talked about putting people in a

sack and shaking them up. I meant

that professional standards for

legal people in police Scotland need

to get their act together. Equally,

everybody else who is involved in

the way that investigations are

conducted north of the border league

to get together. Because the

regulations themselves are really

straightforward. For me, I had to be

a higher rank, with the right

experience and impartial and then I

could do an investigation. Police

Scotland interpreted that, as soon

as I started asking questions in the

inquiry phase, I could no longer be

impartial in the investigation

phase, which is preposterous. I do

understand why police Scotland

professional standards are a little

bit risk averse here because I think

they are facing six judicial reviews

from the Federation, so what

Northumberland police found was that

whenever it please officer is being

investigated north of the border,

there is a good chance they will

counter... What has happened is a

culture of people being like this.

What we should be doing is looking

at these things impartially, finding

out what lessons need to be learned,

if somebody needs a sack on the

wrist, sock them on the rest. At the

moment the public are utterly

perplexed.

I am curious. You said

you were bought in the late Mark

brought in by Phil Gormley. He has

now left. There were various

allegations against him. None of

them have been proven. The way the

rules work is that those

investigations will never come to a

conclusion. There have been two

chief constables who have left.

chief constables who have left. Wind

you look at the state of the

Scotland and the fact that these

people have had to go, as a senior

police officer in England, would it

make you hesitate about applying for

a job here?

I am not going to be

applying for a job.

But in general

terms, do you think that is a risk

that police officers in England

think it will be a bit of a mess?

I

think that is a legitimate concern,

but that is not my main concern. My

main concern is that, because people

are taking an overly legal approach

to these things, these matters take

years. The matter I was looking at

started as a very simple situation

in June...

Your item meant is that

it could have been sorted out

quickly.

That was my evidence to

Parliament. I would have attempted

to resolve it in June 2015. With a

fair wind, I would have resolved

this by the middle of July. For

people in jeopardy would have been

brought in, I would have personally

apologised and offered recompense

and we would have moved on.

Forget

the inquiry. Your general

impressions? It is obviously very

controversial. The equivalent for

you is that you had to merge with

Northumbria and Manchester, every

police force in the North of

England. Would you be comfortable

with that do you think it is

better...? Durham is a reasonably

small force.

We are the 32nd biggest

force in England. The experience we

have of creating a national police

force is unique in the UK and I just

think that it has been really tough

for people in Scotland. I'm in touch

with police officers and there is no

doubt that front line cops from the

eight constituent forces and is

happy about working properly

Scotland. I actually understand the

argument for economies of scale. My

personal opinion is that policing is

very local. I think it should be a

partnership with locals and local

people should be really confident

that they understand who they

achieved Constable is and they have

got that relationship. If I were

Chief Constable of the North of

England, it would be jolly difficult

for me to do my job.

Thank you very

much for joining us. There is still

no agreement over Brexit.

There's still no agreement over

Brexit between the UK

and Scottish governments,

but both came out of the latest

round of talks saying

progress had been made.

While Scotland's Brexit Minister

Michael Russell underlined the need

to give parliament here authority

over powers that'll eventually be

returned from Brussels,

Scottish Secretary David Mundell

said he was hopeful

a deal could be reached.

I'm joined now by SNP MSP

Ash Denham and Scottish

Conservative MSP Miles Briggs.

Ash Denham, I am dubious as to what

you made of what David Lidington had

to say.

Clearly some progress has

been made last week at the... My

personal view about where we are at

the moment is that the UK Government

still seems to be sleepwalking

towards a constitutional crisis and

not enough progress has been made.

They need to come out this morning.

I have seen some reports saying that

the SNP will potentially damage some

trade deals going forward. First of

all, that is completely wrong and

second of all, that is the signs of

a weak government that are trying to

blow up is smoke screen because they

are unable to come to the table with

serious proposals to satisfy the

Scottish Government. It is unanimous

across Parliament. We have a

Scottish committee, unanimous across

all the parties, saying that the

BLEEP in must be resolved. They need

to show some leadership. They need

to engage constructively and try to

solve this impasse.

I...

There are

specific proposals. Cost of living

would be change. Everything will

come back to Scotland but the

British woman would ask the Scottish

Government not to change rules in

certain areas until there were

negotiations. Is that your

understanding?

Yes. This is where we

are working to find a compromise. It

is important that we have this

conversation and are able to seek

and move forward a complex issue. In

terms of David Lidington's comments,

the UK single market is worth four

times that of the EU one. It is

vital for Scottish businesses that

we don't have a differentiation

across the single market.

What is

actually happening? Presumably, the

argument against what you are

proposing is that it kicks it one

stage back because the question is,

who decides on which areas the

Scottish Government would then agree

not to change the rules and who then

decides on the common framework?

Should it be negotiations or should

the Scottish Parliament have the

right to vote on what areas are

common?

Clause 11 will provide that

opportunity. We would like to see

those powers come back to Holyrood

to strengthening the Scottish

Parliament. There are cross-border

issues which we don't have agreement

on yet. Both governments are looking

towards where these powers are going

to have a common-sense approach. It

is something we should all be

working towards. Governments and

ministers are working towards that.

We can move both countries forward.

This idea that the Scottish

Government will get back powers but

not use them to change things, is

that unreasonable? The point about

David Linton is that if we start

changing trade standards on certain

products and Britain is negotiating

a trade deal, the British government

needs to know that those stab and --

standards are common.

The Scottish

Government have been clear about

this right from the start. Whether

businesses seek to have it common

framework it is agreed with the

Scottish Parliament. It has to be

agreed. We are saying that at the

moment the level of involvement on

the Scottish Parliament hasn't been

enough. If you look at examples...

Miles Briggs said no, they have

agreed to change clause 11.

That is

not what they are saying. That is

not what they said last week. At the

moment the proposals that have been

put forward fall far short of that.

It is still undercutting devolution.

It is still a position where there

would be vetoes or imposition on top

of another layer above the Scottish

Parliament. It is undermining

devolution. Things that are

currently devolved was the

controlled by the Scottish

Parliament.

We seem to have a

disagreement on the facts. Miles

Briggs, is what Ash Denham has said,

is that what your understanding is?

No. The language... We are trying to

work this out to make sure it that

as the EQ leaves the European union,

we will have an advantage as an

economy.

Thank you both very much.

We will have to leave it there.

It's time to look back

on what's happened this week

and what's coming up.

I'm joined now by Hamish McDonald

and Shona Craven. There is a

disagreement, is in there? Well, I'm

not sure there's a disagreement, but

clearly some deal has been proposed,

or done. It's just the details. They

seem to be disagreeing about what

should happen but also on what the

details actually are?

My impression

is what the UK Government has put on

the table is that all the powers

will go back to Hollywood but that

Westminster retains a veto on up to

25 of them -- they will go back to

Holyrood. And they retained a veto

until that is good place. -- until