15/06/2014 Sunday Politics South East


15/06/2014

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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

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The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

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The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

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What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

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It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

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that? Coming up: As police promised a

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even Westminster, we'll be asking Coming up: As police promised a

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crackdown on lawyers flags hn one crackdown on lawyers flags in one

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area... In London, why the minority vote one

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recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger

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than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known

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as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern

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and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked

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like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has

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now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army

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and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that

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a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri

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al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation

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of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi

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army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or

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surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a

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humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to

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consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts

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of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias

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are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way

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partition a real possibility with The US is moving another

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of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,

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though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help

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its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports

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that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's

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diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who

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are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS

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is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure

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Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.

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What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not

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recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they

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could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as

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far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of

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Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,

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along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,

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2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was

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called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and

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bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in

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large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their

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side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is

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a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer

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that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia

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Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We

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can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,

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South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What

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is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a

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consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are

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trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major

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city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the

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power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys

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in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would

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like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could

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take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they

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have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these

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newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will, can

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forces, call them what you will can effectively counter-attacked. But

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that is what will happen in the next week or two. We will see

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increasingly large and serious government counter-attacked trying

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to retake those places, and I fear a really difficult, bloody Syrian

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style street by street battle for some of these urban centres. I would

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like to have a look at this map, because the Kurds, as I mentioned,

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they are consolidating their position in the autonomous region in

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the north. The Islamist are taking over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim

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West. And of course the Shia Muslim are still dominant in control of

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Baghdad and in parts of the south and east. Back to me looks like the

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beginnings of the partition of Iraq. -- back to me. Well, it is, but we

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have to caveat it in a few ways. Firstly, there are millions of

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people in Iraq, so-called sushi, combined families, who do not fit

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easily into the pattern. Do we see millions of people becoming refugees

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under this scheme? There would be a lot of human tragedies if people

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really did try to enforce this type partition. Secondly, there are Sunni

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Muslim communities in the south of Baghdad, those places, once again, a

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lot of misery and fighting will occur if people try to enforce a de

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facto partition. There are still an awakening of forces. They are on the

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side of the government. We heard about one group in Samarra of Sunni

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Muslims fighting on the same side. It's a complex picture. They factor,

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it does look like a partition, and if it goes further in that direction

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it will. And partition will always be messy because people end up on

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the wrong side of the lies. Finally, the big thing on that map,

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Iran, a huge place, a huge border with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now

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becomes a key factor. It is becoming a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I

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was in Baghdad a few months ago I was in Baghdad a few months ago, I

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did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform

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They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers

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have been never some time and they are also said to protect the

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political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think

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more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise

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the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.

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Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.

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Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.

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He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing

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That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.

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This morning he entered the debate about what should be

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My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11

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Saddam in place in 2003, when 2011 happened and you have the Arab

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revolutions going through Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and

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Syria, you would still have had a major problem in Iraq. You can see

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what happens when you leave the dictator in place, as has happened

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with Bashar al-Assad. The problem doesn't go away. What I'm trying to

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say is, we can rerun the debates about 2003, and there are perfectly

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legitimate points on either side, but where we are in 2014, we have do

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understand that this is a regional problem, but a problem that will

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affect us. And I'm joined by the former Foreign

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Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown, Here in London are James Rubin,

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he was chief spokesman for the State Department under

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Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman, she represents the Kurdistan

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Regional government in the UK. Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles,

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we don't intervene in Syria, it's a we don't intervene in Syria, it s a

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shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed

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question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.

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Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an

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intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him to stay quiet during

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moments like this, because it does drive a great surge of people in the

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other direction. The fact is, what has been missing in western politics

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towards the Middle East throughout both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a

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drive to build an inclusive, democratic centre which is secular

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and nonsectarian. That has been missing amongst the threats of

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invasion Manon invasion, we have just constantly neglected the

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diplomatic nation-building dimensional this. I want to come

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onto what is happening on the ground. I want to begin with what

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the Western response by me, and by that we mean the United States,

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because of it doesn't do anything, nobody will do anything. All of the

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signals I see coming out of the White is that Barack Obama has no

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appetite for intervention -- out of the White House. I don't think he

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does have an appetite. He would be very unlikely to do anything very

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large. He might feel pressured to act because of the fact that this

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particular group, this Al-Qaeda inspired group, fits into the

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strategy he has pursued in Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use

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drone strikes against individual terrorists. So it is possible that

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the threat of ISIS in the region and the West in general might inspire

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him to act, but the idea he will do enough, militarily, to transform

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Iraq from its current state of civil War into something along the lines

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that Mark was talking about, nation-building diplomacy, a big

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operation, I don't see President Obama sees his historic mission as

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having got the United States as out of it. Leave it to the Pacific,

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perhaps. What would the Kurds like the West to do? First of all, in

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Kurdistan we face a huge humanitarian crisis. We already have

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had bought a quarter of a million Syrian refugees and we were

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struggling to cope with that. And now we have at least double that

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number of refugees coming from Mosul. First and foremost, we are

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calling on the international community to help us with that. So

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we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe

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not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent

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on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I

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think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be

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supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the

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federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is

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first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily

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intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,

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provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more

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targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the

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disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be

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abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.

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But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.

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We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have

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seized some of the American kit. We are not asking for weapons, but we

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ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,

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this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and

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from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through

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to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and

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Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made

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earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic

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divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for

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this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise

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although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq

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instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century

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boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable

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because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc

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and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the

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last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are

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we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from

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here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and

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thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it

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is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto.

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Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the

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idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination

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going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may

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end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded

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with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key

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thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two

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groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done

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is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.

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We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni

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extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the

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great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go

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into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now. If

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in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability

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that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to

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have to do something about it. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your

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southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all

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making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never

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be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose

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federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what

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it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the

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make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the

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political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside

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their differences or there will be problems. This provides that

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opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I think

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this is the end of a rack as we know it. If anything resembling a

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caliphate emerges, that is very destabilising for the region itself.

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More so I would suggest than even the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in

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Afghanistan. At some stage, you have to assume that they will be coming

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for us. That is correct. This is extremely dangerous. The only way

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forward is for these political groups to talk to each other and

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find a compromise that allows the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected within or the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected with an autonomous federal-state. Any

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support for the government must be premised on that. There is no

:18:45.:18:47.

military solution for this which is in during -- there is no military

:18:48.:19:04.

solution for this. There must be serious political negotiation, not

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with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim moderates, to form a more

:19:09.:19:12.

representative government. This is the last chance for Iraq. I think we

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are all saying that that is going to need to be some major western

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leadership to make some big decisions here for the future of the

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region. I am concerned that after Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is

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quite world-weary, quite world-weary. It does not seem to be

:19:32.:19:36.

giving leadership. Certainly we are not seeing that in Europe. I am

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deeply concerned that we are not going to take the leadership role

:19:41.:19:44.

that needs to be taken. These are big issues. When Britain and France

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carved up the Middle East, they were world powers, operating as global

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powers, and without that global leadership by somebody, this is just

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going to get worse and worse. I think we will leave it there, thank

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you very much. The danger is that power will

:20:01.:20:05.

spread. This could grow in power. It is just under 100 days until the

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referendum on Scottish independence. So, for once,

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it'll be a long hot-summer But the campaign isn't

:20:15.:20:15.

just getting heated. In places it's also

:20:16.:20:20.

down-right nasty. When Scotland's best-selling author

:20:21.:20:22.

announced she was giving the unionist cause a million pounds

:20:23.:20:24.

this week, she received Independence supporters online,

:20:25.:20:27.

so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor

:20:28.:20:35.

and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together

:20:36.:20:37.

campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,

:20:38.:20:41.

and this week he criticised Conservative ministers

:20:42.:20:45.

for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival

:20:46.:20:46.

approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to

:20:47.:20:52.

engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from

:20:53.:20:54.

Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,

:20:55.:21:01.

and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you

:21:02.:21:21.

first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond

:21:22.:21:24.

not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the

:21:25.:21:29.

debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number

:21:30.:21:34.

of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling

:21:35.:21:38.

themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a

:21:39.:21:43.

fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably

:21:44.:21:47.

total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not

:21:48.:21:51.

to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty

:21:52.:21:56.

people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there

:21:57.:21:59.

are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the

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Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to

:22:07.:22:11.

people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,

:22:12.:22:16.

and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a

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democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is

:22:24.:22:26.

characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out

:22:27.:22:30.

of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get

:22:31.:22:36.

to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and

:22:37.:22:39.

you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I

:22:40.:22:44.

think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging

:22:45.:22:49.

in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we

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want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United

:22:56.:22:58.

Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,

:22:59.:23:06.

particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to

:23:07.:23:11.

support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on

:23:12.:23:16.

social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.

:23:17.:23:20.

We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come.

:23:21.:23:29.

This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What

:23:30.:23:32.

is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I

:23:33.:23:38.

understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but

:23:39.:23:47.

it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that

:23:48.:23:51.

we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,

:23:52.:23:57.

it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was

:23:58.:24:01.

varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people

:24:02.:24:06.

think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against

:24:07.:24:11.

Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of

:24:12.:24:19.

four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,

:24:20.:24:23.

Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to

:24:24.:24:30.

the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most

:24:31.:24:34.

incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.

:24:35.:24:41.

Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.

:24:42.:24:47.

Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting

:24:48.:24:51.

fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if

:24:52.:24:55.

people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and

:24:56.:25:00.

opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the

:25:01.:25:03.

accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK

:25:04.:25:07.

Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars

:25:08.:25:12.

and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.

:25:13.:25:19.

How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.

:25:20.:25:26.

Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is

:25:27.:25:30.

running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than

:25:31.:25:31.

Better Together. Jackie Baillie, campaign, much more positive than

:25:32.:25:35.

Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair

:25:36.:25:41.

Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il

:25:42.:25:44.

and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need

:25:45.:25:49.

to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It

:25:50.:25:56.

is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I

:25:57.:26:03.

think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You

:26:04.:26:08.

have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?

:26:09.:26:15.

The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.

:26:16.:26:21.

You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be

:26:22.:26:26.

flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at

:26:27.:26:28.

all and neither is the campaign. The all and neither is the campaign The

:26:29.:26:33.

campaign has asked questions and I think it is legitimate to ask

:26:34.:26:37.

questions of the people proposing such a fundamental change. People

:26:38.:26:41.

care about the economy, their jobs, their families. What would happen to

:26:42.:26:46.

them if they leave the rest of the United Kingdom. I think it is

:26:47.:26:52.

legitimate to ask questions. I refuse to be asked of

:26:53.:26:56.

scaremongering. People deserve answers. The yes campaign is equally

:26:57.:27:02.

guilty of some of the most outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you

:27:03.:27:11.

are both scaremongering. Blair Jenkins, the First Minister said of

:27:12.:27:15.

the cyber nationalists, that they are just Daft folk, as if they were

:27:16.:27:21.

mischievous little children. It is worse than that. When you look at

:27:22.:27:26.

what they say, they are twisted, perhaps even evil minds. I would not

:27:27.:27:32.

disagree with his comments, but they are directed at just a small number

:27:33.:27:36.

of people. The story of this campaign is not the story of what

:27:37.:27:41.

people are saying on Twitter. Around Scotland, lots of people are getting

:27:42.:27:45.

engaged in debate to have been tuned out of the political process. Today,

:27:46.:27:52.

we have 47% support for the yes campaign. The movement in the

:27:53.:27:57.

campaign is towards yes. People know we have a better campaign, a vision

:27:58.:28:03.

for Scotland. The latest poll of polls does not show that. Both

:28:04.:28:08.

sides, you always take the opinion polls that show you in the best

:28:09.:28:13.

light. All politicians do that. Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not

:28:14.:28:16.

just negative, it is patronising. You make dubious claims that Scots

:28:17.:28:25.

would be ?1400 better off by staying in the union, and then you say that

:28:26.:28:32.

the kids use the money to scoff 280 hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival.

:28:33.:28:35.

The fate of the nation is in your hands and that is the best you can

:28:36.:28:41.

do? I think you will find that the campaign is something that we are

:28:42.:28:47.

taking the message to people. Then why are you talking about hotdogs? I

:28:48.:28:54.

do not. The campaign did. We are taking a positive message to people

:28:55.:28:57.

across Scotland about the benefits of the United Kingdom. We believe we

:28:58.:29:02.

are stronger and more secure and more stable, being part of that

:29:03.:29:06.

family of nations that is the United Kingdom. At the same time, we have

:29:07.:29:11.

the strange and power over things like education and transport. I

:29:12.:29:18.

understand that. I am not doing the issues today, I am talking about the

:29:19.:29:22.

tone of the campaign. I have one very important question. Who would

:29:23.:29:27.

you supporting last night in the England-Italy match? I was not

:29:28.:29:33.

watching the game. I would be delighted to see England do well in

:29:34.:29:38.

this tournament. I have Argentina in the office sweepstake. I have to

:29:39.:29:43.

keep some attention on them, but I would be delighted to seeing Clint

:29:44.:29:47.

do well. That is because you think it will help your campaign. It will

:29:48.:29:50.

annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie? I annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I

:29:51.:29:56.

was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.

:29:57.:30:02.

Now most of you probably missed last night's football match

:30:03.:30:04.

between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and

:30:05.:30:08.

England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.

:30:09.:30:12.

But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever

:30:13.:30:15.

and with speculation about the fitness of each political

:30:16.:30:17.

party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.

:30:18.:30:24.

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:30:25.:30:26.

This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football

:30:27.:30:39.

stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for

:30:40.:30:46.

these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon

:30:47.:30:47.

and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian

:30:48.:30:51.

barbecue. And at Westminster they're

:30:52.:30:52.

turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.

:30:53.:31:01.

We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start

:31:02.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?

:31:07.:31:07.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I'm afraid.

:31:08.:31:14.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got

:31:15.:31:17.

Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next

:31:18.:31:26.

to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and

:31:27.:31:27.

vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very

:31:28.:31:28.

popular since she fell out with him out how

:31:29.:31:30.

to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation

:31:31.:31:34.

about him taking on him in Then there are rumours of a

:31:35.:31:36.

reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any

:31:37.:31:47.

swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows? David Cameron has

:31:48.:31:57.

also got to replace the EU commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is

:31:58.:31:58.

standing down. Does he go with the favourite

:31:59.:31:59.

the former health secretary Or the grassroots choice,

:32:00.:32:01.

Martin Callanan, the Tories old Or does he rehabilitate

:32:02.:32:04.

Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate? Do you fancy being European

:32:05.:32:22.

Commissioner? I would rather be spending the money on the world's

:32:23.:32:23.

spending the money on the world s poor and spending it well. Glad to

:32:24.:32:25.

hear it. Happy collecting. Right, there must be some Labour

:32:26.:32:28.

stickers out there. You don't want to swap Ed Balls any

:32:29.:32:36.

of the others? Can't I keep them all? This is almost the perfect

:32:37.:32:39.

team. There have been grumblings

:32:40.:32:39.

about the fitness of the Shadow And Ed Miliband's got a kicking

:32:40.:32:43.

in Liverpool after posing I'm told grown men are meeting up

:32:44.:32:47.

in pubs for sticker swaps - With Danny Finkelstein -

:32:48.:32:58.

Tory peer and Times columnist, He would be the card I would not

:32:59.:33:11.

want to trade. Do people want to trade him in? I don't think anybody

:33:12.:33:16.

wants to trade him in at the moment. He is the best person to lead the

:33:17.:33:20.

Labour party and will lead us into the next election. There's been a

:33:21.:33:23.

lot about Michael Gove, and he's very combative. That's been a huge

:33:24.:33:27.

strength as an education Secretary, despite the fact it's brought in

:33:28.:33:30.

trouble. I would think the prime minister would tell him not to get

:33:31.:33:33.

himself into peripheral battles at the moment but stick to what has

:33:34.:33:39.

been successful. I haven't got Nick Clegg, but I got me. Controversy

:33:40.:33:45.

amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I need to give away me in return for

:33:46.:33:49.

Nick Clegg. That would be far better. There you are.

:33:50.:33:53.

Some local parties are holding meetings about his leadership,

:33:54.:33:56.

but at one in Cambridge this week they voted to stick with him.

:33:57.:34:00.

You have got a Euro Commissioner. Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed

:34:01.:34:09.

Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do that? What is the significance of

:34:10.:34:15.

that? Very significant. Happy collecting.

:34:16.:34:18.

These beauties are popping up everywhere, but sadly they won't

:34:19.:34:20.

Adam is still doing the samba around Westminster as I speak.

:34:21.:34:31.

I'm joined by three journalists who've been

:34:32.:34:32.

furiously swapping stickers throughout the show, they certainly

:34:33.:34:34.

weren't allowed to stay up to watch the football, it's Nick Watt,

:34:35.:34:37.

We will talk about Labour after the break, and I want to concentrate on

:34:38.:34:46.

the Tories, but the moment, Nick, senior Tories are saying privately

:34:47.:34:51.

that they might win next May. They are beginning to dream the dream. So

:34:52.:34:58.

why are they doing all this jockeying? I think the jockeying for

:34:59.:35:05.

the leadership is about a year old. What stoped it up was when Theresa

:35:06.:35:07.

gave a speech to the conference and gave a speech to the conference, and

:35:08.:35:14.

people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking

:35:15.:35:17.

too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that

:35:18.:35:21.

drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on

:35:22.:35:25.

manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he

:35:26.:35:28.

believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.

:35:29.:35:35.

It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the

:35:36.:35:39.

economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.

:35:40.:35:48.

Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails

:35:49.:35:54.

of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more

:35:55.:35:57.

popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an

:35:58.:36:02.

extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while

:36:03.:36:06.

never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing

:36:07.:36:09.

government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant

:36:10.:36:13.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:14.:36:14.

political Charente. piece of political Charente and they

:36:15.:36:17.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I

:36:18.:36:23.

have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots

:36:24.:36:27.

taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read

:36:28.:36:31.

strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people

:36:32.:36:34.

watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on

:36:35.:36:41.

for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe

:36:42.:36:47.

brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so

:36:48.:36:51.

much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris

:36:52.:36:58.

Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,

:36:59.:37:04.

they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this

:37:05.:37:06.

week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove

:37:07.:37:13.

had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he

:37:14.:37:16.

said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative

:37:17.:37:21.

party, George Osborne is my man. Theresa May set out her credo two

:37:22.:37:25.

years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it

:37:26.:37:28.

just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but

:37:29.:37:33.

I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,

:37:34.:37:37.

you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That

:37:38.:37:46.

is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit

:37:47.:37:52.

carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break

:37:53.:37:55.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:56.:37:58.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:59.:38:00.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking about Ed Miliband's

:38:01.:38:25.

brigades Union about cuts which will affect jobs. Fire stations will be

:38:26.:38:32.

affected. We will get reaction later from our guests. Welcome. Ldt's

:38:33.:38:45.

start with the cost of commuting. from our guests. Welcome. Let's

:38:46.:38:48.

start with the cost of commuting. In the south east, if you travdl

:38:49.:38:49.

start with the cost of commtting. In the south east, if you travel to

:38:50.:38:54.

London by train, you could be pays the `` paying ?5,000 a year. With

:38:55.:38:59.

more people working at home, a part`time ticket can save you

:39:00.:39:05.

thousands of type `` pounds. Here is what commuters in Tunbridge Wells

:39:06.:39:09.

had to say. IWork part`time, so it would be cheaper to use the trade. I

:39:10.:39:16.

think it would be more balanced and fair. I'd don't always work here, so

:39:17.:39:22.

sometimes there are weeks when I've might not be using my ticket. If

:39:23.:39:28.

they can just pay for days that they go, I'm sure me people would want to

:39:29.:39:34.

travel by train. These savings had been put for part`time season`ticket

:39:35.:39:41.

around ?1700, ?2000 if you commute from Canterbury. You are often heard

:39:42.:39:45.

speaking up for commuters in the South East. Are you going to lobby

:39:46.:39:49.

for these part`time season tickets? It sounds like a good idea. A lot of

:39:50.:39:54.

people who don't travel by train will be surprised to hear that you

:39:55.:39:59.

can get a different type of membership, such as eight Jim.

:40:00.:40:02.

can get a different type of membership, such as eight Jhm. A lot

:40:03.:40:02.

membership, such as eight Jim. A lot of people like to move it down to

:40:03.:40:09.

the south for that quieter life but want to go into London and are not

:40:10.:40:13.

commuting every day, this would be welcome indeed. I would certainly

:40:14.:40:18.

encourage my colleagues at the Department for Transport to look at

:40:19.:40:19.

this very carefully. You ard an IT this very carefully. You ard an IT

:40:20.:40:27.

expert by trade. Would a part`time system be easier to operate? I was

:40:28.:40:33.

in that position myself, doing a few days a week to London. You need to

:40:34.:40:39.

go at least four days a week at the moment. We have an incredible

:40:40.:40:43.

workforce and we should be encouraging a more varied way of

:40:44.:40:45.

encouraging a more varied w`y of using public transport in the should

:40:46.:40:46.

have been done a long time `go. using public transport in the should

:40:47.:40:49.

have been done a long time ago. You have been done a long time `go. You

:40:50.:40:50.

think a season ticket would be better? What people should be having

:40:51.:40:55.

is, the rest of the country should be getting something like the oyster

:40:56.:41:00.

card, so there are more Fox ways of payment, rather than talking about a

:41:01.:41:07.

card with a bar code on it. `` flexible ways. But the oystdr card

:41:08.:41:10.

flexible ways. But the oyster card is susceptible to fraud. I wonder if

:41:11.:41:16.

that is a better system. It is slightly above my pay grade. I am

:41:17.:41:26.

not that familiar. More flexibility or innovation, more competition,

:41:27.:41:29.

that is what we are getting. It is an exciting time for the railways.

:41:30.:41:36.

Widely recognised that therd is an exciting time for the rahlways.

:41:37.:41:38.

Widely recognised that there is a Widely recognised that therd is a

:41:39.:41:40.

huge housing needed the South East. The government has responded by

:41:41.:41:44.

making it easier for developers to avoid the managed energy`efficient

:41:45.:41:52.

standards for homes. `` the most. But could the plans backfird?

:41:53.:42:04.

Pneumonia that will stand for decades to come. `` new homds. But

:42:05.:42:11.

decades to come. `` new homes. But are they clean and green? The

:42:12.:42:15.

government had promised all new homes should meet strict zero carbon

:42:16.:42:18.

environmental standards by 2016. environmental standards by 2016.

:42:19.:42:24.

Some of the most ambitious targets in the world. Now the coalition

:42:25.:42:29.

wants to act away from the pledge, allowing developers to build to a

:42:30.:42:33.

lower standard of energy efficiency, provided that they pay into

:42:34.:42:37.

environmental schemes which offsets the difference in carbon emissions.

:42:38.:42:39.

the difference in carbon emhssions. Small sites will be exempt from that

:42:40.:42:42.

aspect of the polity. `` policy You aspect of the polity. `` policy You

:42:43.:42:51.

stand to benefit from higher energy standards through lower energy

:42:52.:42:53.

bills, but it could be pervdrse in bills, but it could be pervdrse in

:42:54.:42:56.

terms of outcome for the government, because we could see less

:42:57.:43:02.

progressive builders making smaller developments to get a round of the

:43:03.:43:06.

regulation and that could ldad to slower housing delivery. This

:43:07.:43:07.

regulation and that could lead to slower housing delivery. Thhs is a

:43:08.:43:11.

sustainable home with minim`l heating bills. It is not completely

:43:12.:43:14.

heating bills. It is not colpletely zero carbon, but that is part of the

:43:15.:43:20.

government's problem. It is difficult to achieve and more

:43:21.:43:25.

expensive to build. But what does zero carbon mean? It starts with the

:43:26.:43:29.

fabric of the building. Airtight with thick, well insulated walls

:43:30.:43:35.

keeping in the heat. A systdm to supply controllable, fresh air.

:43:36.:43:39.

keeping in the heat. A system to supply controllable, fresh `ir. But

:43:40.:43:39.

a log burner with a back boiler to a log burner with a back boiler to

:43:40.:43:42.

heat the house. Triple glazhng to heat the house. Triple glazing to

:43:43.:43:45.

look at the warmth and a solar water heating system. The shell of the

:43:46.:43:51.

building cost around 10% more than an average home, but the grden

:43:52.:43:55.

developer to build it says that is nothing in the life span of a house.

:43:56.:44:00.

It is going to cost more money, but if someone's bills are negligible

:44:01.:44:03.

It is going to cost more money, but if someone's bills are neglhgible or

:44:04.:44:03.

if someone's bills are negligible or a 10th of what they were before

:44:04.:44:09.

surely it is the best investment. Should all new houses be billed to

:44:10.:44:13.

that standard? Absolutely. @sk anyone if they would like their

:44:14.:44:17.

bills to be easier, everyone will bills to be easier, everyone will

:44:18.:44:21.

say yes. If development is one of the greenest in the UK, with

:44:22.:44:26.

everything from rooftop allotments to solar panels. The 107 22

:44:27.:44:32.

apartments currently run `` 172 apartments currently running at ..

:44:33.:44:41.

The UK has been a leader in terms of talking about a zero carbon. In the

:44:42.:44:45.

way that policy has been proposed in the way we are delivering it, we are

:44:46.:44:51.

not leading. If you look at other countries, particularly Gerlany

:44:52.:44:52.

countries, particularly Germany, Sweden, Denmark, I think thdy

:44:53.:44:55.

countries, particularly Gerlany Sweden, Denmark, I think they are

:44:56.:44:55.

Sweden, Denmark, I think thdy are becoming the leaders, and we are

:44:56.:44:56.

fast going to see the US st`rting to fast going to see the US st`rting to

:44:57.:45:00.

create many more zero carbon developments. Official figures

:45:01.:45:05.

estimate that the South East will grow by 12% in the decade bdtween

:45:06.:45:09.

2011 and 2021, creating demand grow by 12% in the decade between

:45:10.:45:12.

2011 and 2021, creating dem`nd for an extra 200,000 households. That is

:45:13.:45:15.

an average of 20,000 new homes an extra 200,000 households. That is

:45:16.:45:17.

an average of 20,000 new holes a year to stop the plan is to build

:45:18.:45:20.

100,000 homes in just six ydars 100,000 homes in just six years,

:45:21.:45:21.

from 2015. The speed of delhvery is from 2015. The speed of delivery is

:45:22.:45:28.

important for economic growth in the region, but so far, developdrs

:45:29.:45:30.

important for economic growth in the region, but so far, developers are

:45:31.:45:33.

not keeping pace. As demand for housing and house prices both

:45:34.:45:39.

increase, David Cameron says that he wants to stimulate the construction

:45:40.:45:41.

industry I'd get Britain building industry I'd get Britain building

:45:42.:45:43.

again. But some say the rel`xing again. But some say the rel`xing

:45:44.:45:45.

green targets come at a time when green targets come at a timd when

:45:46.:45:50.

fuel poverty a key national debates, makes little sense. It doesn't make

:45:51.:45:55.

sense that the government are pulling back on this policy. Aber

:45:56.:46:00.

introduced it in 2006 and they wanted to give ten years to give

:46:01.:46:06.

developers a chance to build zero carbon homes. `` labour. It was a

:46:07.:46:09.

long`term way to tackle fuel poverty. What we can do is control

:46:10.:46:14.

the energy efficiency of homes, poverty. What we can do is control

:46:15.:46:15.

the energy efficiency of holes, but the energy efficiency of holes, but

:46:16.:46:19.

we have to start doing it now. There is no question that the South East

:46:20.:46:23.

needs more homes, but there is a growing sense of unease amongst

:46:24.:46:30.

environmental groups about the claimant from the premise to that

:46:31.:46:31.

his government is the greendst ever. his government is the greendst ever.

:46:32.:46:38.

I was checking out quote. This worker the Prime Minister that his

:46:39.:46:43.

government. `` the Prime Minister that his government is the greatest

:46:44.:46:50.

ever. This is cut the green clap, isn't it? Let's be absolutely

:46:51.:46:55.

clear. We are implementing on the ground ambitious green policies,

:46:56.:46:59.

ground ambitious green policies mobilising ?3.8 billion in the last

:47:00.:47:06.

three years. We are talking about this decision about house`building.

:47:07.:47:12.

Even Cameron has said, cut the green stuff. `` David Cameron. Th`t is a

:47:13.:47:18.

misquote. That has been perpetuated by people misquoting. What this is

:47:19.:47:26.

about, it is about being sensible. You can be ideological and push up

:47:27.:47:30.

costs for hard`working families or you can be sensible and pragmatic

:47:31.:47:38.

and try to dry down the cost. The minister responsible for energy

:47:39.:47:40.

responsibility, and I know H'm minister responsible for endrgy

:47:41.:47:41.

responsibility, and I know I'm not responsibility, and I know H'm not

:47:42.:47:43.

going to get popular support for the green agenda and by taking

:47:44.:47:48.

ideological support that will push up the cost of housing. We have to

:47:49.:47:54.

bring down the cost of energy. We are talking about houses behng built

:47:55.:47:55.

to high energy standards. Less than to high energy standards. Less than

:47:56.:47:59.

10% of the houses in the sotth to high energy standards. Ldss than

:48:00.:48:01.

10% of the houses in the south east. 10% of the houses in the sotth east.

:48:02.:48:04.

You are talking about driving prices down. One man says he wonders around

:48:05.:48:06.

his home in a T`shirt in thd winter his home in a T`shirt in the winter

:48:07.:48:08.

with the heating off. As a linister with the heating off. As a linister

:48:09.:48:11.

for the Department of Energy and for the Department of Energx and

:48:12.:48:13.

Climate Change, don't you want more Climate Change, don't you w`nt more

:48:14.:48:16.

of that? Yes, and you will find that many of those houses cost a lot more

:48:17.:48:22.

and it depends on the indivhdual. We could see from the pictures, that

:48:23.:48:26.

was not the size of a normal home. Triple glazing costs more than other

:48:27.:48:29.

forms of glazing. What is happening forms of glazing. What is h`ppening

:48:30.:48:33.

is there are a lot of different types of developments. We're talking

:48:34.:48:35.

types of developments. We'rd talking about being a little pragmatic. The

:48:36.:48:38.

design became the minister hn about being a little pragmatic. The

:48:39.:48:40.

design became the minister hn 2 10, we brought down the price of solar

:48:41.:48:44.

by 70%. The number of people we brought down the price of solar

:48:45.:48:46.

by 70%. The number of people with solar panels on their roofs, it is

:48:47.:48:51.

now over 1 million people who sleep under a solar panel. , and the

:48:52.:49:01.

people are in the other initiative? The green deal. In the Southeast,

:49:02.:49:06.

the number of people who have a light green deal? I am talkhng

:49:07.:49:09.

the number of people who have a light green deal? I am talking about

:49:10.:49:09.

light green deal? I am talkhng about installations. You are talking about

:49:10.:49:11.

installations. You are talkhng about finance. I am talking about how many

:49:12.:49:16.

people who have put in green deal measures. Do not misquote old

:49:17.:49:24.

chestnuts. We are driving energy efficiency but we are proud that we

:49:25.:49:25.

are going to do that in a way that are going to do that in a way that

:49:26.:49:30.

does not drive up costs. For ordinary working families, it is

:49:31.:49:33.

part of a long`term economic plan and does not use housing as a

:49:34.:49:43.

plaything. Offering bigger developments the opportunitx to pay

:49:44.:49:49.

what amounts to a penalty... Level five is a step change. I am trying

:49:50.:49:53.

to ask you a question and you are trying to avoid talking about the

:49:54.:49:54.

trying to avoid talking abott the fact that you are giving them

:49:55.:49:56.

trying to avoid talking about the fact that you are giving thdm added

:49:57.:50:00.

chance to avoid doing it. Why do `` what is so clever about allowing...

:50:01.:50:06.

We are doing it because he want to have a little bit more flexhbility.

:50:07.:50:11.

You can be ideological and push up the cost of housing for people who

:50:12.:50:13.

are already struggling to get a are already struggling to gdt a

:50:14.:50:18.

mortgage to cover the cost of a new home. Great if you are a well`paid

:50:19.:50:23.

middle`class professional. Having an extra ?20,000 on the cost of your

:50:24.:50:26.

house doesn't matter, but there are a lot of people watching or whom

:50:27.:50:28.

cost of home ownership is just cost of home ownership is jtst

:50:29.:50:32.

within their grip, and we bring that down and be more sensible, not by

:50:33.:50:37.

throwing the baby out with the bath water or watering it down

:50:38.:50:40.

ridiculously, but by just being a little bit more pragmatic, that is a

:50:41.:50:47.

good thing. What he is saying is, his government wants houses that are

:50:48.:50:50.

unaffordable to heat and maintain unaffordable to heat and mahntain

:50:51.:50:53.

and for a few thousand pounds more you can make dramatic changds

:50:54.:50:56.

and for a few thousand pounds more you can make dramatic changes in

:50:57.:50:58.

those homes, and there is a policy that would exceed the national

:50:59.:51:00.

standards, and inspectors h`ve said standards, and inspectors have said

:51:01.:51:03.

we have to go to the lowest common denominator and delete the policy.

:51:04.:51:07.

They could have been 10 million solar panels if you have not messed

:51:08.:51:09.

around with the tariff so m`ny around with the tariff so many

:51:10.:51:10.

times. With regarding to bux a times. With regarding to buy a

:51:11.:51:14.

warehouse. How much were yot times. With regarding to bux a

:51:15.:51:18.

warehouse. How much were you paying warehouse. How much were yot paying

:51:19.:51:18.

for them? We cannot proceed let's be for them? We cannot proceed let s be

:51:19.:51:24.

specific `` we cannot proceed. Let's specific `` we cannot procedd. Let's

:51:25.:51:25.

be specific. If the get `` if specific `` we cannot proceed. Let's

:51:26.:51:29.

be specific. If the get `` if this gets developed, and builders are

:51:30.:51:34.

building more quickly, it is a good thing, people need homes. Of course

:51:35.:51:41.

they do, but in Britain, developers want to exceed the standards because

:51:42.:51:43.

that is attractive to purch`sers want to exceed the standards because

:51:44.:51:44.

that is attractive to purchasers at that is attractive to purchasers at

:51:45.:51:45.

it reduces the total cost of ownership, and what the signals from

:51:46.:51:51.

government are, push a little bit and Roback. A complete and out. We

:51:52.:51:59.

were looking at the fact th`t this could be counterproductive. `` opt

:52:00.:52:07.

out. We haven't published the details. What is the smaller

:52:08.:52:13.

developments going to do? There could be a perverse disincentive

:52:14.:52:17.

here too big developments, they could have been piecemeal, and that

:52:18.:52:19.

could have been piecemeal, `nd that would have the opposite effect. I am

:52:20.:52:21.

would have the opposite effdct. I am trying to ask a question, that is my

:52:22.:52:27.

job. The bottom line is, we haven't published the details. The idea is

:52:28.:52:29.

published the details. The hdea is to be pragmatic, not ideological,

:52:30.:52:33.

but to make sure that we have more efficient homes, and the have zero

:52:34.:52:39.

carbon in a way that does not drive up the costs of homes for people

:52:40.:52:42.

carbon in a way that does not drive up the costs of homes for pdople who

:52:43.:52:42.

up the costs of homes for people who are already on a tight budgdt.

:52:43.:52:46.

up the costs of homes for pdople who are already on a tight budget. Final

:52:47.:52:50.

question on the subject. Level for energy efficiency is still ` massive

:52:51.:52:51.

improvement. Why is it not enough? improvement. Why is it not dnough?

:52:52.:52:56.

We know that other countries can deliver level five and above

:52:57.:52:57.

We know that other countries can deliver level five and abovd without

:52:58.:52:57.

additional costs, and in the deliver level five and above without

:52:58.:53:01.

additional costs, and in thd car additional costs, and in thd car

:53:02.:53:04.

industry, ambitious targets force the manufacturers to change their

:53:05.:53:07.

behaviour, and I've think house builders in this country to do with

:53:08.:53:11.

some of that push from government, and not these mixed messages from

:53:12.:53:12.

the government. I have spokdn to the government. I have spokdn to

:53:13.:53:16.

suppliers and technologies and the government. I have spoken to

:53:17.:53:19.

suppliers and technologies and we are seeing a huge transform`tion.

:53:20.:53:23.

suppliers and technologies `nd we are seeing a huge transformation. We

:53:24.:53:23.

are seeing a huge transform`tion. We are splitting hairs and trying to

:53:24.:53:24.

are splitting hairs and tryhng to pretend... We should stay ambitious.

:53:25.:53:29.

I am going to be ambitious `nd try I am going to be ambitious and try

:53:30.:53:32.

to move us off the subject. The decision has been made about where

:53:33.:53:35.

cuts to the Sussex where service will follow. If the jobs will go and

:53:36.:53:39.

a fire engine will be removed will follow. If the jobs will go and

:53:40.:53:40.

a fire engine will be removed from Britain. `` 50 jobs. It is `ll

:53:41.:53:47.

a fire engine will be removdd from Britain. `` 50 jobs. It is all part

:53:48.:53:47.

Britain. `` 50 jobs. It is `ll part of a cost`saving process in which

:53:48.:53:49.

the Fire Service has to save the Fire Service has to save

:53:50.:53:53.

millions of pounds. The fird authority which made the decision

:53:54.:53:56.

says they carefully dropped plans that maintain response standards.

:53:57.:54:02.

The public is safe, that is good news, isn't it? It is not, because

:54:03.:54:07.

the plans are dishonest and do not give the public the truth. The plans

:54:08.:54:12.

will increase response times. In Britain, the cutting of a pump will

:54:13.:54:16.

Britain, the cutting of a ptmp will make it impossible for the Fire

:54:17.:54:20.

Service to deal with one high`rise incident. The chief officer has said

:54:21.:54:24.

he will be able to deal with two simultaneous incidents in Britain.

:54:25.:54:32.

We cannot see high `` how. What is the worst`case scenario herd? Fire

:54:33.:54:38.

the worst`case scenario here? Fire has reduced. The number of hncidents

:54:39.:54:39.

has reduced. The number of incidents has dropped in the number of traffic

:54:40.:54:43.

accidents have dropped, and that is good news, but if you have ` fire,

:54:44.:54:47.

good news, but if you have a fire, you are more likely to get hnjured

:54:48.:54:48.

you are more likely to get injured and you are likely to suffer a

:54:49.:54:53.

fatality, businesses are more likely to go out of business. Say you are

:54:54.:54:58.

saving lives will be lost. That is quite an irresponsible mess`ge.

:54:59.:55:02.

According to a review from the Fire Service, savings can and should be

:55:03.:55:08.

made, that is the view of an insider. That review was a bit of a

:55:09.:55:18.

joke. They took together... It is a serious independent report. You are

:55:19.:55:22.

calling it a joke. The man who wrote that review was then played for a

:55:23.:55:26.

long time. The review looked at the 46 Fire Services and looked at the

:55:27.:55:32.

average cost of the lowest Fire Service and spread that out as an

:55:33.:55:35.

average of savings that havd Service and spread that out as an

:55:36.:55:36.

average of savings that have been average of savings that have been

:55:37.:55:38.

made across the board. What about East Sussex? Call`outs down 36%. It

:55:39.:55:47.

is not unreasonable to cut further then, is it? You have to have the

:55:48.:55:52.

insurance service of making sure you have an effective response, not just

:55:53.:55:56.

for fires, but for red traffic accidents at all the other

:55:57.:55:59.

environmental risks that ard there. This worker road traffic `` road

:56:00.:56:09.

traffic stop `` road traffic. Are you concerned about the loss? Yes. A

:56:10.:56:18.

significant number of firefhghters did vote against it. I understand

:56:19.:56:20.

the Authority are in a diffhcult the Authority are in a diffhcult

:56:21.:56:22.

position because the government the Authority are in a difficult

:56:23.:56:24.

position because the governlent is putting the bulk of the cut to

:56:25.:56:25.

budgets and local councils and fire budgets and local councils `nd fire

:56:26.:56:30.

authorities, 43% reductions, far above the cuts of any department. I

:56:31.:56:40.

don't want Brighton to see this loss, but we have to recognhse

:56:41.:56:42.

don't want Brighton to see this loss, but we have to recognise where

:56:43.:56:42.

loss, but we have to recognhse where the blame lies, it is the government

:56:43.:56:44.

doing the cutting. By contr`st, good doing the cutting. By contrast, good

:56:45.:56:47.

news, but your governments hs the news, but your governments hs the

:56:48.:56:52.

reason that he could not raise his reason that he could not rahse his

:56:53.:56:56.

council tax, which we know he wanted to do, which would have helped him

:56:57.:57:01.

keep his fire engine. You are all right, Jack. We have had thhs

:57:02.:57:05.

problem because of the deficit that was run up by Gordon Brown and

:57:06.:57:06.

problem because of the deficit that was run up by Gordon Brown `nd that

:57:07.:57:06.

was run up by Gordon Brown and that we are still dealing with. @re we

:57:07.:57:14.

bored of this? I think we are! How long have you been in government? To

:57:15.:57:24.

be fair, the specific issue, it is a decision your governments took.

:57:25.:57:27.

Because people have had enotgh tax rises. We were elected by the people

:57:28.:57:34.

and we should be trusted by our residents. All a referendum if you

:57:35.:57:37.

want to put up your Council tax. `` want to put up your Council tax. ``

:57:38.:57:45.

call. There is a debt that will be with us through the next decade or

:57:46.:57:48.

more, such as the huge debt we are struggling with, and it means we're

:57:49.:57:52.

going to have to make cuts to public spending. There is no way around it.

:57:53.:57:58.

Hang on a second. Let talk `bout necessity. You are the one who

:57:59.:58:01.

famously told a group of Americans famously told a group of Amdricans

:58:02.:58:04.

that the conservative government would make cuts that Margaret

:58:05.:58:06.

would make cuts that Margardt Thatcher could only have dreamt of.

:58:07.:58:08.

Thatcher could only have drdamt of. Did that include cuts to the Fire

:58:09.:58:11.

Did that include cuts to thd Fire Service? I said we were having to

:58:12.:58:13.

Service? I said we were havhng to make cuts as a result of the

:58:14.:58:15.

make cuts as a result of thd deficits. That is a direct quote.

:58:16.:58:20.

make cuts as a result of the deficits. That is a direct puote. He

:58:21.:58:22.

did not say to them that it was cuts on the Margaret `` Margaret Thatcher

:58:23.:58:24.

would have only dreamt of? I on the Margaret `` Margaret Thatcher

:58:25.:58:25.

would have only dreamt of? H did say would have only dreamt of? H did say

:58:26.:58:29.

that. It is a result of the deficit and debt that we inherited from the

:58:30.:58:34.

Labour government. Cuts that are much greater than Margaret Thatcher.

:58:35.:58:39.

What we have had to inherit his catastrophic by comparison. Your

:58:40.:58:46.

message is about standing up for the little guy and who cannot afford

:58:47.:58:54.

fire engines... There are choices. They could be cuts to Trident, which

:58:55.:59:00.

has no impact on the benefit of life for people in this country, but they

:59:01.:59:05.

are choosing to put the cuts and to rescue authorities to have ` job to

:59:06.:59:06.

rescue authorities to have a job to protect the lives. We have to take a

:59:07.:59:12.

look at the other political Evans and there are plenty. Here they are

:59:13.:59:18.

in 60 seconds. `` Evans will stop `` Evans. A lack of staff could mean

:59:19.:59:26.

more violence at Maidstone prison, says an independent report, after

:59:27.:59:30.

serious disturbance at the jail last November. The government cl`ims

:59:31.:59:32.

staffing levels are appropriate but staffing levels are approprhate but

:59:33.:59:37.

the prison officers Association disagrees. We do not feel we

:59:38.:59:38.

the prison officers Association disagrees. We do not feel wd have

:59:39.:59:39.

got the right supports to be disagrees. We do not feel we have

:59:40.:59:40.

got the right supports to bd able disagrees. We do not feel wd have

:59:41.:59:40.

got the right supports to be able to got the right supports to bd able to

:59:41.:59:40.

do our job. Nigel Farage could got the right supports to be able to

:59:41.:59:44.

do our job. Nigel Farage could be facing a fine because he had to

:59:45.:59:49.

declare the rights to use this office. I have not declared expenses

:59:50.:59:54.

for this office. Surrey County Council was challenged the Commons

:59:55.:00:02.

Council because `` in the Commons because... They said that they had

:00:03.:00:06.

not risen since 2010. Footb`ll fever. A council will play the

:00:07.:00:12.

every hour until England exit the every hour until England exit the

:00:13.:00:16.

World Cup. Residents do not think it will guarantee me license. Why not

:00:17.:00:24.

try it every ten minutes? `` new lessons. Time for a quick thought.

:00:25.:00:29.

How much should chief executives of councils are in? More than the Prime

:00:30.:00:35.

Minister? I do not think so, but I have to say there there is a

:00:36.:00:39.

Minister? I do not think so, but I have to say there there is ` case

:00:40.:00:41.

for performance related pay. I don't believe in performance related pay.

:00:42.:00:49.

But there has to be a balance. The Council leader is on significant way

:00:50.:00:53.

(your allowance, and that is not the Chief Executive. My allowance of

:00:54.:00:59.

?39,000. Thank you very much. Ray to have you both with us. That is it

:01:00.:01:02.

from the south east `` great to have There are big changes afoot

:01:03.:01:13.

in the EU following last month's European elections,

:01:14.:01:15.

not least who'll get the top job But

:01:16.:01:18.

behind the scenes the parties have also been jockeying for position as

:01:19.:01:21.

they try to form the big groups that And UKIP seems to have been

:01:22.:01:25.

struggling to keep its influence Here's Adam to explain

:01:26.:01:29.

how it all works. If you want your party to be a big

:01:30.:01:41.

cheese in the European Parliament, you need to form a political group.

:01:42.:01:46.

By doing this, the party gets more money, more positions on committees

:01:47.:01:50.

and even more speaking rights in the chamber. But the parliament's rules

:01:51.:01:56.

are strict. And to form a group you need a group of 25 MPs from at least

:01:57.:02:01.

seven different countries. For UKIP, the number of MEPs will not be a

:02:02.:02:05.

problem because they already have 24 of their own, but the different

:02:06.:02:10.

nationalities are more of a challenge. Nigel Farage was not

:02:11.:02:14.

helped by the Tories stealing - stealing his former Danish and

:02:15.:02:18.

Finnish allies, and the pen pinching his Italian charms. Nigel needs a

:02:19.:02:27.

new charm and fast. He has already signed up Lithuania's order and

:02:28.:02:30.

justice, a free citizen from Prague, and the Dutchman from the reformed

:02:31.:02:36.

political party. The big signing was the 17 members of the Italian Beppe

:02:37.:02:43.

Griego's 5-star movement, but it leaves UKIP short of two more

:02:44.:02:46.

international powers, and with the clock ticking, it looks like his

:02:47.:02:51.

hopes resting on the Swedish Democrats and the Polish new right

:02:52.:02:54.

Congress. They both make their decisions next week.

:02:55.:03:01.

What is the latest? UKIP have enough MEPs with their pals, but they need

:03:02.:03:07.

seven countries, as I understand it. They are not there yet. They are

:03:08.:03:12.

wrapped five countries and need another two. UKIP are being quite

:03:13.:03:15.

buoyant and say they will be meeting MEPs from five countries next week

:03:16.:03:20.

and are pretty confident they will get those countries, but as Adam was

:03:21.:03:24.

saying, the problem UKIP have had is that the Conservatives have nicked

:03:25.:03:33.

two of the parties. That is why they have been struggling, but they say

:03:34.:03:36.

they are confident they will do it. Meanwhile, the Tories new best

:03:37.:03:40.

friends are the German Eurosceptic party, which has put Mrs Merkel s

:03:41.:03:45.

party, which has put Mrs Merkel's nose out of joint, but we don't

:03:46.:03:48.

quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played

:03:49.:03:55.

his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he

:03:56.:04:03.

should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a

:04:04.:04:09.

major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead

:04:10.:04:15.

there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are

:04:16.:04:19.

supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of

:04:20.:04:24.

problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't

:04:25.:04:28.

there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly

:04:29.:04:33.

Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and

:04:34.:04:37.

Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and

:04:38.:04:43.

they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in

:04:44.:04:46.

Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole

:04:47.:04:51.

business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's

:04:52.:04:56.

support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading

:04:57.:05:00.

behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he

:05:01.:05:08.

doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he

:05:09.:05:11.

has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.

:05:12.:05:15.

That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't

:05:16.:05:22.

think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of

:05:23.:05:27.

the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming

:05:28.:05:30.

head of the European commission, what chance do you have of

:05:31.:05:33.

repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs

:05:34.:05:40.

dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are

:05:41.:05:46.

too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country

:05:47.:05:48.

notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.

:05:49.:05:54.

Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side

:05:55.:05:59.

once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she

:06:00.:06:08.

tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got

:06:09.:06:12.

such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she

:06:13.:06:18.

had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but

:06:19.:06:27.

as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,

:06:28.:06:31.

he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks

:06:32.:06:39.

Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a

:06:40.:06:42.

power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron

:06:43.:06:45.

went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave

:06:46.:06:50.

the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in

:06:51.:06:56.

Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument

:06:57.:07:01.

that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural

:07:02.:07:03.

allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough

:07:04.:07:08.

Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.

:07:09.:07:17.

When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to

:07:18.:07:23.

have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,

:07:24.:07:26.

looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His

:07:27.:07:32.

strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of

:07:33.:07:37.

that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and

:07:38.:07:42.

dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's

:07:43.:07:47.

son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are

:07:48.:07:50.

particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and

:07:51.:07:57.

understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error

:07:58.:08:02.

and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to

:08:03.:08:05.

himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His

:08:06.:08:12.

advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.

:08:13.:08:22.

On this one, he called it wrong. It's a sign of the rather the bridal

:08:23.:08:29.

state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in

:08:30.:08:33.

attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is

:08:34.:08:40.

at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.

:08:41.:08:46.

The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The

:08:47.:08:54.

mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying

:08:55.:08:59.

the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking

:09:00.:09:02.

and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the

:09:03.:09:08.

rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the

:09:09.:09:11.

juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.

:09:12.:09:17.

Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he

:09:18.:09:19.

doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he

:09:20.:09:23.

has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg

:09:24.:09:30.

posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread

:09:31.:09:31.

carefully. That was the mistake. newspaper and football, you tread

:09:32.:09:33.

carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture

:09:34.:09:37.

that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full

:09:38.:09:40.

process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within

:09:41.:09:44.

his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen

:09:45.:09:47.

question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the

:09:48.:09:51.

day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as

:09:52.:09:57.

well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and

:09:58.:10:00.

you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be

:10:01.:10:04.

yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never

:10:05.:10:08.

works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed

:10:09.:10:14.

Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get

:10:15.:10:18.

involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than

:10:19.:10:22.

counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which

:10:23.:10:26.

was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by

:10:27.:10:32.

telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred

:10:33.:10:39.

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband,

:10:40.:10:40.

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all

:10:41.:10:40.

uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband, all the other leaders have done it. At

:10:41.:10:45.

the moment he more vulnerable. Yes, and he is less popular than his

:10:46.:10:49.

party. Labour has quite a popular brand, in a resilient way, in a way

:10:50.:10:53.

they don't with the Tories, yet their leader is a personal problem.

:10:54.:10:57.

The pressure is on him to do stunts like this. Will there be a shadow

:10:58.:11:04.

cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to get the cabinet reshuffle out of the

:11:05.:11:07.

way first, and that might come next week, maybe by the time of the

:11:08.:11:10.

summer recess, but the first thing that the prime Minister do is work

:11:11.:11:13.

out who is the UK candidate for the European Commissioner. Is it not the

:11:14.:11:21.

case probably that Ed Balls is becoming semi-detached from the Ed

:11:22.:11:25.

Miliband project? I don't think entirely. Nothing gets agreed

:11:26.:11:29.

without both of the end are green. Ed Balls is controversial. He has

:11:30.:11:32.

great pluses and minuses and is a big figure. Labour doesn't have that

:11:33.:11:37.

many big figures. It's quite hard to think who would be a heavy hitter as

:11:38.:11:41.

a possible Chancellor. He is a convincing chancellor to the future,

:11:42.:11:47.

Love him. He has the heft -- love him or hate him. Any possibility Ed

:11:48.:11:52.

Balls could be moved as shadow chancellor? The timing is convenient

:11:53.:11:57.

because the Scottish referendum ends in the autumn and Alistair Darling

:11:58.:11:59.

becomes a free man, win or lose I don't think Ed Balls will be removed

:12:00.:12:04.

because moving him would be an admission that everything the Labour

:12:05.:12:07.

Party said about the economy to the preceding four years has been a

:12:08.:12:11.

mistake. And you can't do that nine months before a general election.

:12:12.:12:16.

You invite ridicule. But relations between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are

:12:17.:12:19.

not great at the moment. The Ed Miliband team are very, very

:12:20.:12:22.

suspicious of this new love in between Ed Balls and Peter

:12:23.:12:26.

Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say that he spotted the Ed Balls talents

:12:27.:12:30.

in the original place and appointed him to the Gordon Brown team after

:12:31.:12:36.

the disaster of 1992. But things obviously went awry, and now Ed

:12:37.:12:40.

Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue Rappaport, and that is with enormous

:12:41.:12:45.

suspicion -- they have a new Rappaport. With good reason because

:12:46.:12:51.

it's about policy. It's about the attitude towards business. Should

:12:52.:12:53.

they be out there saying they will get the tax dodgers, Starbucks,

:12:54.:12:59.

Vodafone, are we going to take on business in a big way? In a way that

:13:00.:13:03.

Ed Miliband has quite bravely said. On the other hand, Ed Balls and

:13:04.:13:06.

Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on, we only won in 1997 by being

:13:07.:13:11.

business friendly. Sorry to rush you. We are running out of time

:13:12.:13:13.

The Daily Politics will be back every day this week at midday,

:13:14.:13:17.

and I'll be back here next Sunday when I'll be joined

:13:18.:13:20.

by the shadow work and pensions secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember

:13:21.:13:22.

if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:23.:13:54.

Magnificent. The power base of medieval England.

:13:55.:14:00.

Charles' ceiling was a piece of breathtaking arrogance.

:14:01.:14:06.

You get a sense of the people who made the palaces.

:14:07.:14:13.

as I unlock the secrets of Britain's great palaces.

:14:14.:14:17.

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