Browse content similar to 05/02/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:33. | :00:37. | |
Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing", | :00:38. | :00:40. | |
and this week her government will announce new measures to boost | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters. | :00:44. | :00:46. | |
After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules | :00:47. | :00:56. | |
it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House | :01:02. | :01:03. | |
is making good on his campaign promises. | :01:04. | :01:07. | |
As the Government gets into gear for two years | :01:08. | :01:09. | |
of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come | :01:10. | :01:12. | |
over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union - | :01:13. | :01:15. | |
and the costs and savings once we've left. | :01:16. | :01:20. | |
And with me, as always, a trio of top political | :01:21. | :01:40. | |
journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn | :01:41. | :01:42. | |
They'll be tweeting throughout the programme, | :01:43. | :01:46. | |
So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House | :01:47. | :01:53. | |
of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way | :01:54. | :01:55. | |
Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill, | :01:56. | :02:01. | |
with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against. | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn | :02:05. | :02:10. | |
will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted | :02:11. | :02:12. | |
Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally | :02:13. | :02:17. | |
Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote - | :02:18. | :02:19. | |
blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy | :02:20. | :02:22. | |
The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked | :02:23. | :02:24. | |
about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show. | :02:25. | :02:28. | |
The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation, | :02:29. | :02:33. | |
and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult. | :02:34. | :02:37. | |
Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency, | :02:43. | :02:44. | |
Labour, as a national party, have a clear view. | :02:45. | :02:48. | |
We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken, | :02:49. | :02:56. | |
But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check, | :02:57. | :03:01. | |
we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country. | :03:02. | :03:07. | |
That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water | :03:08. | :03:15. | |
torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a | :03:16. | :03:18. | |
situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has | :03:19. | :03:22. | |
drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it. | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn. | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the | :04:05. | :04:09. | |
main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on | :04:10. | :04:15. | |
Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article | :04:16. | :04:20. | |
50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to | :04:21. | :04:25. | |
abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the | :04:26. | :04:28. | |
North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of | :04:29. | :04:36. | |
our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
divided and we represent the country, in other words we are | :04:45. | :04:47. | |
divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial | :04:48. | :04:50. | |
moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is | :04:59. | :05:05. | |
a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for | :05:06. | :05:09. | |
that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have | :05:24. | :05:26. | |
been a token gesture with no support. But there might be | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The | :05:32. | :05:34. | |
government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of | :05:35. | :05:43. | |
those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates | :05:44. | :05:46. | |
the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved | :05:47. | :05:48. | |
on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the | :05:54. | :05:58. | |
bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not | :05:59. | :06:03. | |
everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on | :06:04. | :06:08. | |
Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little | :06:09. | :06:13. | |
earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say | :06:14. | :06:17. | |
this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in | :06:18. | :06:20. | |
power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week | :06:21. | :06:25. | |
may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see. | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week | :06:34. | :06:36. | |
we should get a good sense of what that means in practice - | :06:37. | :06:39. | |
when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters | :06:40. | :06:42. | |
are published in the Government's new white paper. | :06:43. | :06:43. | |
Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU | :06:44. | :06:46. | |
by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing | :06:47. | :06:48. | |
Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill, | :06:49. | :06:53. | |
and the likely costs and savings once we've left. | :06:54. | :06:55. | |
It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign. | :06:56. | :06:57. | |
It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise - | :06:58. | :07:03. | |
vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more. | :07:04. | :07:06. | |
So, is that what's going to happen now? | :07:07. | :07:08. | |
The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts | :07:13. | :07:14. | |
She needs something quicker, something more sporty. | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
According to the most recent Treasury figures, | :07:20. | :07:25. | |
Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate | :07:26. | :07:27. | |
is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year. | :07:28. | :07:30. | |
There are some complicating factors that means it can go up | :07:31. | :07:36. | |
or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK | :07:37. | :07:38. | |
will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit. | :07:39. | :07:40. | |
But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for. | :07:41. | :07:44. | |
First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement. | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion | :07:57. | :07:59. | |
The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely | :08:00. | :08:05. | |
to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros, | :08:06. | :08:10. | |
but what does the money they are going to argue | :08:11. | :08:12. | |
Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's | :08:13. | :08:18. | |
already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are | :08:19. | :08:21. | |
Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions, | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten | :08:27. | :08:29. | |
Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded | :08:30. | :08:37. | |
spending commitments, the so-called RAL. | :08:38. | :08:38. | |
Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros | :08:39. | :08:46. | |
for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion. | :08:52. | :08:53. | |
Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU. | :08:54. | :08:55. | |
They include things like this building, the European Commission | :08:56. | :09:00. | |
Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion | :09:01. | :09:08. | |
euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros. | :09:09. | :09:11. | |
So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks. | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks | :09:15. | :09:16. | |
because actually they can hold us to ransom. | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade. | :09:22. | :09:24. | |
But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think | :09:25. | :09:27. | |
a lot of European states think they are in a very strong | :09:28. | :09:30. | |
negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make | :09:31. | :09:32. | |
The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast | :09:33. | :09:38. | |
contributions to the European Union every year will end. | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up | :09:44. | :09:47. | |
to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis. | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
The Europol for example, that's the European crime | :09:54. | :09:55. | |
agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges. | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK | :10:01. | :10:03. | |
675 million euros a year, based on analysis by | :10:04. | :10:05. | |
But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in. | :10:06. | :10:14. | |
If we only opted back to those dealing with security, | :10:15. | :10:24. | |
trade, universities and, say, climate change, | :10:25. | :10:25. | |
it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year. | :10:26. | :10:28. | |
Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us. | :10:29. | :10:31. | |
I wonder if they're going to let me in! | :10:32. | :10:33. | |
There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve | :10:34. | :10:36. | |
trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part | :10:37. | :10:39. | |
Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein. | :10:45. | :10:46. | |
That costs 4 million euros to run each year, | :10:47. | :10:51. | |
though in the Brexit White Paper published this week, | :10:52. | :10:54. | |
the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent | :10:55. | :10:56. | |
Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some | :10:57. | :11:01. | |
contribution for some preferential access to its market? | :11:02. | :11:07. | |
The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting | :11:08. | :11:10. | |
at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership | :11:11. | :11:12. | |
Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway, | :11:13. | :11:20. | |
pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget, | :11:21. | :11:24. | |
but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after. | :11:25. | :11:26. | |
The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified | :11:27. | :11:29. | |
in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated | :11:30. | :11:31. | |
and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate | :11:32. | :11:33. | |
Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat | :11:34. | :11:40. | |
when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's | :11:41. | :11:42. | |
But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such | :11:43. | :11:51. | |
Sadly she didn't get to keep the car! | :11:52. | :12:09. | |
And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet | :12:10. | :12:12. | |
by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant, | :12:13. | :12:14. | |
and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe. | :12:15. | :12:17. | |
Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at | :12:18. | :12:24. | |
the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make | :12:25. | :12:28. | |
of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we | :12:29. | :12:31. | |
should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former | :12:32. | :12:37. | |
ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I | :12:42. | :12:46. | |
personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about | :12:47. | :12:50. | |
getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our | :12:51. | :12:52. | |
departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce | :12:53. | :12:57. | |
settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit, | :13:02. | :13:06. | |
if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come | :13:07. | :13:11. | |
in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has | :13:12. | :13:15. | |
a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship. | :13:21. | :13:22. | |
Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or | :13:23. | :13:27. | |
thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a | :13:28. | :13:30. | |
softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the | :13:31. | :13:33. | |
divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as | :13:34. | :13:39. | |
the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the | :13:40. | :13:43. | |
atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure | :13:49. | :13:55. | |
or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions | :13:56. | :13:59. | |
believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations | :14:00. | :14:01. | |
start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are | :14:02. | :14:04. | |
prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the | :14:05. | :14:10. | |
cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even | :14:20. | :14:24. | |
60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You | :14:31. | :14:33. | |
could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would | :14:34. | :14:38. | |
be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour | :14:39. | :14:45. | |
Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should | :14:46. | :14:50. | |
give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let | :14:51. | :14:53. | |
her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few | :14:54. | :14:56. | |
weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much | :14:57. | :15:00. | |
detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's | :15:01. | :15:05. | |
helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red | :15:06. | :15:08. | |
line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if | :15:09. | :15:14. | |
there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what | :15:15. | :15:18. | |
the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't | :15:19. | :15:21. | |
have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but | :15:22. | :15:26. | |
spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or | :15:27. | :15:29. | |
what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the | :15:30. | :15:35. | |
NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years. | :15:36. | :15:41. | |
Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The | :15:42. | :15:47. | |
question of whether something is political possible for her in terms | :15:48. | :15:50. | |
of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the | :15:51. | :15:53. | |
European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up | :15:54. | :15:59. | |
settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult | :16:04. | :16:08. | |
for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain. | :16:09. | :16:13. | |
Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this | :16:14. | :16:17. | |
issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and | :16:22. | :16:26. | |
will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty. | :16:27. | :16:33. | |
What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow? | :16:34. | :16:36. | |
Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here | :16:37. | :16:42. | |
and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite | :16:43. | :16:48. | |
bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all | :16:49. | :16:52. | |
the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in | :16:53. | :16:56. | |
Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in | :16:57. | :17:02. | |
Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the | :17:03. | :17:05. | |
Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans | :17:06. | :17:10. | |
or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At | :17:11. | :17:16. | |
the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for | :17:17. | :17:24. | |
the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is | :17:30. | :17:34. | |
not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the | :17:35. | :17:38. | |
UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit | :17:39. | :17:42. | |
scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want | :17:43. | :17:49. | |
to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to | :17:50. | :17:54. | |
security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that | :17:55. | :17:59. | |
was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a | :18:05. | :18:10. | |
little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price | :18:11. | :18:15. | |
ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime | :18:16. | :18:20. | |
Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our | :18:21. | :18:25. | |
own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part | :18:26. | :18:29. | |
of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are | :18:34. | :18:36. | |
looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with | :18:37. | :18:39. | |
recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing | :18:40. | :18:43. | |
boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border, | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a | :18:53. | :18:57. | |
country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be | :18:58. | :19:04. | |
quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and | :19:10. | :19:14. | |
eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having | :19:24. | :19:28. | |
mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards, | :19:29. | :19:31. | |
but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish | :19:37. | :19:39. | |
because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of | :19:40. | :19:43. | |
customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we | :19:48. | :19:51. | |
don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to | :19:52. | :19:57. | |
lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the | :19:58. | :20:01. | |
negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic | :20:02. | :20:03. | |
reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the | :20:04. | :20:21. | |
solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a | :20:22. | :20:23. | |
positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it | :20:24. | :20:26. | |
turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't | :20:27. | :20:29. | |
really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the | :20:30. | :20:32. | |
wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free | :20:36. | :20:39. | |
trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very | :20:40. | :20:45. | |
hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard | :20:50. | :20:53. | |
crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
will leave it there. Thank you, both. | :21:03. | :21:04. | |
Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants | :21:05. | :21:06. | |
and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim | :21:07. | :21:08. | |
countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend. | :21:09. | :21:10. | |
On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it | :21:11. | :21:14. | |
That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets | :21:15. | :21:19. | |
criticising what he says was a terrible decision | :21:20. | :21:21. | |
by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department | :21:22. | :21:23. | |
Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate | :21:24. | :21:31. | |
the ban until it hears the case in full. | :21:32. | :21:43. | |
Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant | :21:44. | :21:47. | |
I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban | :21:48. | :21:51. | |
was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration | :21:52. | :21:53. | |
There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the | :21:54. | :22:06. | |
facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly | :22:07. | :22:11. | |
inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out | :22:12. | :22:17. | |
of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias | :22:18. | :22:26. | |
and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are | :22:27. | :22:31. | |
no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what | :22:32. | :22:34. | |
I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order | :22:35. | :22:41. | |
being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't | :22:42. | :22:48. | |
travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no | :22:49. | :22:56. | |
chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests, | :22:57. | :23:02. | |
National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice", | :23:03. | :23:07. | |
what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the | :23:11. | :23:16. | |
world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama | :23:17. | :23:25. | |
Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some | :23:26. | :23:28. | |
kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that | :23:29. | :23:32. | |
they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any | :23:37. | :23:42. | |
multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen? | :23:43. | :23:49. | |
Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what | :23:50. | :23:52. | |
President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of | :23:53. | :23:57. | |
general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in | :23:58. | :24:02. | |
seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real | :24:03. | :24:09. | |
coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created | :24:10. | :24:15. | |
under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want | :24:16. | :24:19. | |
to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come | :24:20. | :24:27. | |
together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups | :24:28. | :24:33. | |
like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with | :24:34. | :24:38. | |
these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral | :24:39. | :24:42. | |
alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically | :24:43. | :24:47. | |
talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish | :24:48. | :24:51. | |
to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are | :24:52. | :24:55. | |
simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's | :25:00. | :25:03. | |
only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato | :25:09. | :25:20. | |
is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the | :25:21. | :25:25. | |
spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat | :25:26. | :25:30. | |
up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to | :25:31. | :25:36. | |
that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the | :25:37. | :25:42. | |
salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I | :25:43. | :25:49. | |
and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is | :25:50. | :26:00. | |
not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump | :26:01. | :26:04. | |
administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very | :26:05. | :26:07. | |
interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the | :26:08. | :26:15. | |
EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up | :26:16. | :26:20. | |
to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was | :26:21. | :26:26. | |
wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy | :26:27. | :26:30. | |
was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so | :26:35. | :26:38. | |
would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I | :26:39. | :26:44. | |
will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to | :26:45. | :26:47. | |
have the best relations possible with our European allies, and | :26:48. | :26:51. | |
whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself | :26:52. | :26:55. | |
suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European | :26:56. | :27:00. | |
nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that | :27:01. | :27:05. | |
answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is | :27:06. | :27:09. | |
to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral | :27:10. | :27:15. | |
institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an | :27:16. | :27:22. | |
unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to | :27:27. | :27:31. | |
nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think | :27:32. | :27:37. | |
it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that | :27:38. | :27:40. | |
don't take the interests of the populations they represent into | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became | :27:46. | :27:51. | |
President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are | :27:52. | :27:55. | |
obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about | :27:56. | :27:59. | |
the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the | :28:00. | :28:04. | |
interests of the people they represent. Given the | :28:05. | :28:06. | |
unpredictability of the new president, you never really know | :28:07. | :28:09. | |
what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime | :28:10. | :28:14. | |
Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish | :28:15. | :28:22. | |
questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen | :28:23. | :28:25. | |
to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may | :28:26. | :28:31. | |
be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and | :28:32. | :28:34. | |
the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that | :28:35. | :28:41. | |
we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about | :28:42. | :28:45. | |
Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do | :28:46. | :28:51. | |
next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his | :28:52. | :28:56. | |
election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are | :28:57. | :29:02. | |
flourishing economy, and most important of all from your | :29:03. | :29:06. | |
perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and | :29:12. | :29:17. | |
we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there. | :29:18. | :29:24. | |
Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political | :29:25. | :29:31. | |
capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed | :29:32. | :29:33. | |
change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out | :29:34. | :29:35. | |
of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just | :29:36. | :29:38. | |
about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense | :29:39. | :29:41. | |
of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost | :29:42. | :29:44. | |
of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's | :29:45. | :29:47. | |
new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce | :29:48. | :29:49. | |
new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid | :29:50. | :29:52. | |
has previously said politicians should not stand in the way | :29:53. | :29:57. | |
of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures | :29:58. | :30:00. | |
to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised | :30:01. | :30:05. | |
to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas | :30:06. | :30:07. | |
on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be | :30:08. | :30:11. | |
relaxation of building height restrictions, | :30:12. | :30:13. | |
allowing home owners and developers to build to the height | :30:14. | :30:15. | |
of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek | :30:16. | :30:17. | |
planning permission. Other elements trialled include | :30:18. | :30:23. | |
new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land | :30:24. | :30:27. | |
without building homes, land banking, and moving railway | :30:28. | :30:29. | |
station car parks Underground, The Government today said it | :30:30. | :30:31. | |
will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically | :30:32. | :30:40. | |
to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability | :30:41. | :30:43. | |
for young families, alongside its proposed ban | :30:44. | :30:45. | |
on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister, | :30:46. | :30:52. | |
Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home | :30:53. | :31:02. | |
ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now | :31:03. | :31:05. | |
emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the | :31:06. | :31:10. | |
Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on | :31:11. | :31:13. | |
that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So | :31:14. | :31:18. | |
far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we | :31:19. | :31:21. | |
absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do | :31:22. | :31:27. | |
so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for | :31:28. | :31:29. | |
everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who | :31:30. | :31:33. | |
want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%, | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this | :31:39. | :31:42. | |
government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have | :31:43. | :31:47. | |
stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have | :32:01. | :32:03. | |
helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of | :32:04. | :32:08. | |
it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You | :32:09. | :32:12. | |
say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3% | :32:13. | :32:18. | |
additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent | :32:19. | :32:21. | |
properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the | :32:22. | :32:25. | |
speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised | :32:26. | :32:29. | |
concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there | :32:30. | :32:34. | |
is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional | :32:35. | :32:41. | |
investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on | :32:42. | :32:44. | |
the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional | :32:45. | :32:49. | |
money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones | :32:50. | :32:52. | |
before said it would get pension fund money to invest in | :32:53. | :32:55. | |
infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is | :32:56. | :32:59. | |
already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see | :33:00. | :33:02. | |
some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the | :33:03. | :33:07. | |
White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to | :33:08. | :33:18. | |
rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other | :33:19. | :33:20. | |
day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money | :33:21. | :33:23. | |
on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We | :33:24. | :33:26. | |
need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large | :33:27. | :33:29. | |
developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable | :33:30. | :33:36. | |
renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20% | :33:37. | :33:42. | |
below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it | :33:43. | :33:45. | |
another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of | :33:46. | :33:50. | |
their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what | :33:51. | :33:54. | |
we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or | :33:55. | :33:57. | |
rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable | :33:58. | :34:01. | |
because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white | :34:02. | :34:04. | |
Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power | :34:05. | :34:09. | |
six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new | :34:10. | :34:17. | |
homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year | :34:18. | :34:20. | |
programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all. | :34:21. | :34:24. | |
The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the | :34:25. | :34:27. | |
last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new | :34:28. | :34:31. | |
programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years, | :34:32. | :34:35. | |
this government has built more affordable housing than the previous | :34:36. | :34:41. | |
one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the | :34:42. | :34:47. | |
figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this | :34:48. | :34:50. | |
cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer | :34:56. | :34:59. | |
leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband | :35:00. | :35:06. | |
promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and | :35:07. | :35:10. | |
George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's | :35:11. | :35:15. | |
changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which | :35:16. | :35:20. | |
we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have | :35:21. | :35:24. | |
six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much | :35:25. | :35:29. | |
the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the | :35:30. | :35:33. | |
tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed | :35:34. | :35:37. | |
Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons | :35:38. | :35:42. | |
institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home | :35:43. | :35:46. | |
and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a | :35:47. | :35:51. | |
short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term | :35:52. | :35:56. | |
return and give families more security. You have set a target, | :35:57. | :36:03. | |
your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million | :36:04. | :36:06. | |
new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we | :36:07. | :36:14. | |
are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this | :36:15. | :36:17. | |
country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five... | :36:18. | :36:25. | |
2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking | :36:26. | :36:31. | |
about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with | :36:32. | :36:34. | |
respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is | :36:35. | :36:40. | |
wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes | :36:41. | :36:44. | |
built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total | :36:45. | :36:46. | |
change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the | :36:47. | :36:53. | |
figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1 | :36:54. | :36:57. | |
million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three | :36:58. | :37:02. | |
quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1 | :37:03. | :37:07. | |
million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't | :37:08. | :37:11. | |
do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this | :37:12. | :37:16. | |
country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions | :37:17. | :37:20. | |
or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions. | :37:21. | :37:25. | |
If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16, | :37:26. | :37:31. | |
100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It | :37:36. | :37:40. | |
is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes | :37:41. | :37:44. | |
are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the | :37:45. | :37:50. | |
white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there | :37:51. | :37:53. | |
for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove | :37:54. | :37:58. | |
land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should | :37:59. | :38:00. | |
look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We | :38:01. | :38:07. | |
have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million | :38:08. | :38:13. | |
homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken | :38:14. | :38:17. | |
housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green | :38:18. | :38:20. | |
belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us, | :38:21. | :38:23. | |
Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40. | :38:24. | :38:25. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :38:26. | :38:27. | |
Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead... | :38:28. | :38:38. | |
Coming up later, could a new train line between London and Brighton be | :38:39. | :38:44. | |
the solution for long-suffering passengers and overcrowded trains? | :38:45. | :38:49. | |
Or is it a pipe dream that will just hit the buffers? | :38:50. | :38:53. | |
Joining me in the studio today at the Conservative MP | :38:54. | :38:55. | |
for Lewes, Maria Caulfield, and Anneliese Dodds, | :38:56. | :38:57. | |
We are going to start with the Southern Rail | :38:58. | :39:04. | |
dispute, which finally had a breakthrough on Thursday. | :39:05. | :39:08. | |
A deal between the drivers union Aslef and the rail operator. | :39:09. | :39:13. | |
But the misery for Southern passengers isn't over. | :39:14. | :39:14. | |
Talks with the RMT Union are expected to take place next week. | :39:15. | :39:17. | |
Maria, I know your constituents have been particularly affected | :39:18. | :39:21. | |
by the chaos on Southern over the last year as so. | :39:22. | :39:24. | |
Do you think that deal with Aslef makes it more or less likely that | :39:25. | :39:27. | |
a deal can be reached for the RMT Union now? | :39:28. | :39:29. | |
And think it's probably more likely because, | :39:30. | :39:31. | |
once the Aslef union have got the issues resolved, | :39:32. | :39:35. | |
it put pressure on the RMT to get theirs because it's the only | :39:36. | :39:38. | |
outstanding problem now in this dispute. | :39:39. | :39:43. | |
So we are saying to both, we are pleased that the RMT | :39:44. | :39:46. | |
and Southern are getting background the table because it was | :39:47. | :39:48. | |
the TUC talks that really broke through the deal. | :39:49. | :39:53. | |
Strike action doesn't resolve any of the issues or general | :39:54. | :39:56. | |
So I am pleased they are background the table for talks next week. | :39:57. | :40:00. | |
It could make things better, but on the other hand, | :40:01. | :40:02. | |
the RMT dispute has been more long-running, it could be argued | :40:03. | :40:05. | |
as more intractable, and if anything, the RMT Union might | :40:06. | :40:07. | |
feel more angered by the fact that Aslef done a deal | :40:08. | :40:12. | |
There is a risk there, but I think, given the changeovers and the Aslef | :40:13. | :40:18. | |
union have come to a deal in terms of their concerns around driver | :40:19. | :40:21. | |
only operated trains, I think it makes it more likely | :40:22. | :40:23. | |
that the RMT and the on-board supervisors and the conductors | :40:24. | :40:26. | |
They have some concerns, genuine concerns, but the only way | :40:27. | :40:30. | |
to address those is round the table with talks and not by striking. | :40:31. | :40:33. | |
Anneliese, this does rather vindicate the Government's position | :40:34. | :40:37. | |
throughout this dispute which is they didn't | :40:38. | :40:39. | |
want to get involved, that this should be sorted out away | :40:40. | :40:41. | |
Actually, the Government sets the whole frame that's led to this | :40:42. | :40:48. | |
dispute in the first place so they really can't say they don't | :40:49. | :40:51. | |
I have heard time and again people from the Government saying this | :40:52. | :40:56. | |
There is nothing behind it so I'm really pleased there are people | :40:57. | :41:00. | |
acknowledging there are some genuine concerns there. | :41:01. | :41:01. | |
Really, those have got to be dealt with, particularly | :41:02. | :41:03. | |
You know, you do have issues around safety, | :41:04. | :41:08. | |
with trains without guards, trains without conductors, | :41:09. | :41:10. | |
if you have also people trying to get on with a wheelchair | :41:11. | :41:13. | |
We can take there are lots of gems that operate like that, | :41:14. | :41:21. | |
but do we need to make all the rest of them poor quality? | :41:22. | :41:24. | |
Shouldn't we try to have a train service for the 21st century? | :41:25. | :41:27. | |
I am pleased to hear people acknowledging their having | :41:28. | :41:30. | |
problems and that this wasn't just ideological. | :41:31. | :41:31. | |
Even if all of the disputes are ended, though, you yourself | :41:32. | :41:34. | |
said in the Commons, you dread the return | :41:35. | :41:36. | |
Many of your constituents will take, well, actually, things were easier | :41:37. | :41:40. | |
during the strike because we knew which trains were running | :41:41. | :41:42. | |
On an ordinary day, the service doesn't work anyway? | :41:43. | :41:45. | |
A return to normal service is not necessarily a cause for celebration | :41:46. | :41:49. | |
because we've had one of the worst - the worst performing - | :41:50. | :41:52. | |
We are performing in terms of trains on time in the 60s. | :41:53. | :41:56. | |
60% compared to most other rail operators in the high 90s. | :41:57. | :41:59. | |
Since the dispute has been halted, we have seen | :42:00. | :42:01. | |
That is not good enough but an improvement. | :42:02. | :42:04. | |
I am absolutely going to be holding Southern's feet to the fire to make | :42:05. | :42:07. | |
sure that their next and only priority is delivering performance. | :42:08. | :42:13. | |
OK, well, one solution to the problems on Southern | :42:14. | :42:15. | |
being put forward by Maria and a group of fellow MPs is to open | :42:16. | :42:18. | |
a whole new line through Sussex and Kent which would connect | :42:19. | :42:21. | |
Brighton with Uckfield, Tunbridge Wells and the city. | :42:22. | :42:23. | |
The group behind it say they have a consortium of private | :42:24. | :42:26. | |
investors ready to fund the ?6 billion project | :42:27. | :42:29. | |
and they claim it would relieve congestion on the existing | :42:30. | :42:32. | |
Which is used by 60,000 passengers per hour at peak times. | :42:33. | :42:55. | |
Platform 2 for the 1454 service to London Victoria. | :42:56. | :42:57. | |
More of us than ever before are travelling by train. | :42:58. | :43:00. | |
But this is the daily reality for commuters | :43:01. | :43:02. | |
using the Brighton mainline, one of the UK's busiest | :43:03. | :43:04. | |
commuter routes dubbed the most delayed in Britain. | :43:05. | :43:11. | |
This extraordinary viaduct across the River Ouse was built | :43:12. | :43:14. | |
by the Victorians and it still carries the existing | :43:15. | :43:17. | |
But for decades, there has been talk about building an alternative route | :43:18. | :43:25. | |
To ease the burden on the overstretched system. | :43:26. | :43:32. | |
And this week, Sussex MPs and a private consortium | :43:33. | :43:35. | |
of private investors met the Transport Secretary to set up | :43:36. | :43:43. | |
a ?6 billion scheme that they say could finally make it happen. | :43:44. | :43:46. | |
The new mainline would connect Brighton through Lewes to Uckfield | :43:47. | :43:49. | |
and continue through Sussex to a newly reinstated | :43:50. | :43:54. | |
Tunbridge Wells West station and finally through Surrey | :43:55. | :43:56. | |
with a major interchange at Croydon and then to Canary Wharf | :43:57. | :43:59. | |
This is an important project but, at ?6 billion, it costs a lot and it | :44:00. | :44:07. | |
has to be put into a programme with Government money behind it | :44:08. | :44:10. | |
Part of the plan would reinstate a Lewes to Uckfield line. | :44:11. | :44:17. | |
The old track bed is now used as a foot path. | :44:18. | :44:27. | |
I think it is extremely welcome that we have some serious investors | :44:28. | :44:30. | |
It has always been a case of having the resources to drive forward | :44:31. | :44:37. | |
a proposition which has huge public and political support. | :44:38. | :44:41. | |
It would work wonders for the economic hub | :44:42. | :44:43. | |
which is Brighton, reconnect all kinds of places | :44:44. | :44:45. | |
The former MP for Lewes, Norman Baker, was also a Rail Minister. | :44:46. | :44:56. | |
He campaigned to reinstate the Uckfield to Lewes line | :44:57. | :44:59. | |
when he was in Parliament and says plans for a second Brighton mainline | :45:00. | :45:03. | |
No Government is going to invest ?6 billion in this particular scheme. | :45:04. | :45:07. | |
It wouldn't add up in cost benefit terms. | :45:08. | :45:16. | |
So if we have to get this delivered, it has to be delivered very | :45:17. | :45:19. | |
economically and that means the cheapest option possible. | :45:20. | :45:23. | |
That means reinstating Lewes to Uckfield and connecting the two | :45:24. | :45:25. | |
And also providing alternative capacity for the South Coast | :45:26. | :45:31. | |
That is the obvious thing to do rather than investing on these cloud | :45:32. | :45:35. | |
cuckoo schemes that will never get off the ground. | :45:36. | :45:39. | |
But the current Lewes MP, Maria Calfield, said | :45:40. | :45:41. | |
this week was my meeting with the Transport Secretary was | :45:42. | :45:44. | |
So is there a genuine appetite now from the Government | :45:45. | :45:47. | |
Or is this just another idea that will hit the buffers? | :45:48. | :45:52. | |
It sounds wonderful, Maria, but you have so many | :45:53. | :45:54. | |
Not just the physical ones in building the line | :45:55. | :46:01. | |
I guess the biggest problem here is that there seems | :46:02. | :46:05. | |
to be little enthusiasm from the Government for this project | :46:06. | :46:08. | |
because the idea has been around for a long time. | :46:09. | :46:12. | |
I think the former transport minister had little enthusiasm | :46:13. | :46:14. | |
for it, but I don't think that is the position | :46:15. | :46:17. | |
We met with the Brighton mainline 2 group this week, | :46:18. | :46:27. | |
The key priority for the Government investment in terms of investment | :46:28. | :46:31. | |
and improvement is the current mainline because it has been | :46:32. | :46:34. | |
It is exciting that we have private investors who are keen | :46:35. | :46:40. | |
to deliver the money but also to project manage it. | :46:41. | :46:43. | |
If there isn't the capacity in Network Rail for example | :46:44. | :46:45. | |
to deliver this, which I don't think there is, there is another | :46:46. | :46:48. | |
That is the first time we have seen this. | :46:49. | :46:52. | |
Before it happens, we need this feasibility study which was first | :46:53. | :46:54. | |
instigated by the last Chancellor, George Osborne, two years ago. | :46:55. | :46:57. | |
That was supposed to be delivered at the end of 2015, | :46:58. | :46:59. | |
It has been on Chris Grayling's desk since he started on the job. | :47:00. | :47:07. | |
If you was keen, we would have heard about it by now, | :47:08. | :47:10. | |
The feasibility study has happened and you are right, | :47:11. | :47:13. | |
The work it shows is that there is a huge amount of investment | :47:14. | :47:17. | |
The current priority is the existing mainline because we all know that | :47:18. | :47:21. | |
50% of the delays on the current line are due to | :47:22. | :47:24. | |
That is why to take this on to the next stage and do | :47:25. | :47:32. | |
an in-depth study we need the BML 2 team to carry this out. | :47:33. | :47:36. | |
That is something they are considering. | :47:37. | :47:38. | |
Before I bring in Anneliese, there have been many | :47:39. | :47:40. | |
Feasibility studies looking at reopening a version of the | :47:41. | :47:43. | |
Lewes to Uckfield line which have resulted in anything. | :47:44. | :47:48. | |
The Department for Transport said it self not that long ago that the key | :47:49. | :47:55. | |
challenge is significant construction costs, local demand | :47:56. | :47:56. | |
As Norman Baker said, this is a fantasy. | :47:57. | :48:00. | |
It might sound nice to constituents, but actually it is misleading | :48:01. | :48:06. | |
to pretend that this is actually going to become a reality. | :48:07. | :48:09. | |
We are not just looking at the Lewes to Uckfield line. | :48:10. | :48:12. | |
The studies we have done in the past have just looked at Lewes. | :48:13. | :48:16. | |
Lewes to Uckfield and you are right, that doesn't up financially | :48:17. | :48:19. | |
or for any of the benefit indicators you normally look at. | :48:20. | :48:22. | |
We are looking at the second rail line. | :48:23. | :48:24. | |
Going into Canary Wharf, there is businesses in that part | :48:25. | :48:29. | |
of London that are very keen to see that whole stretch to Uckfield | :48:30. | :48:32. | |
and Kent coming down to Sussex, putting towns like Seaford | :48:33. | :48:35. | |
and New Haven on the main line so no longer the poor | :48:36. | :48:38. | |
We are not just looking at Lewes to Uckfield. | :48:39. | :48:41. | |
That is needed, but it is only a small part of what is needed. | :48:42. | :48:44. | |
If Maria can achieve this, with a consortium and her | :48:45. | :48:49. | |
MPs, Anneliese, this is the going | :48:50. | :48:56. | |
to connect parts of the South East that have had nothing in terms | :48:57. | :48:59. | |
It would be very positive if we could have that kind of link | :49:00. | :49:04. | |
But the problem, as you mentioned with getting studies published, | :49:05. | :49:09. | |
we have at this pattern of delay and delay when it comes | :49:10. | :49:13. | |
to Government looking at strategic transport issues in the SE. | :49:14. | :49:15. | |
We were promised that we would have ever London and South Coast rail | :49:16. | :49:18. | |
We have a new Prime Minister and Chancellor. | :49:19. | :49:22. | |
As Peter Kyle says, the Labour MP for Hove, we still don't have | :49:23. | :49:25. | |
Yes, it would be very helpful to have the rail line, | :49:26. | :49:28. | |
but please can we have a more holistic look at all the transport | :49:29. | :49:32. | |
If you take a wider look at the South East as a whole, | :49:33. | :49:36. | |
it is interesting that the director of transport at the East Sussex | :49:37. | :49:39. | |
County Council says he thinks that you would get more bang | :49:40. | :49:42. | |
for your buck if you electrify the line between Hastings | :49:43. | :49:44. | |
and Ashford, which would give you another alternative connection | :49:45. | :49:46. | |
I'm not going to get in the game of playing different | :49:47. | :49:50. | |
When you have limited money, you have to make | :49:51. | :49:54. | |
If that line with actually deliver capacity | :49:55. | :49:58. | |
in another part of the region, might that be a better idea? | :49:59. | :50:03. | |
I think what would be the best idea is the Government, exactly, | :50:04. | :50:06. | |
They say they are doing that with the North, | :50:07. | :50:12. | |
We don't have rail South, and that I believe the council | :50:13. | :50:20. | |
We don't have any holistic look at all of our transport | :50:21. | :50:24. | |
We are waiting for it, we have been promised | :50:25. | :50:28. | |
by the Government for years that we will have this London | :50:29. | :50:30. | |
and South Coast study, and it hasn't been produced. | :50:31. | :50:35. | |
Connecting people would be great, but please, can we push | :50:36. | :50:38. | |
the Government to get a grip on the connections | :50:39. | :50:40. | |
People will be listening to this and watching this, thinking, | :50:41. | :50:44. | |
if they are based in Kent, what about the connections | :50:45. | :50:46. | |
from Dover, what about the freight issues? | :50:47. | :50:48. | |
I agree that these to be a more strategic look that hasn't | :50:49. | :50:54. | |
We are now suffering the consequences of that. | :50:55. | :50:56. | |
The difference between this scheme is that this has been driven | :50:57. | :50:59. | |
by a consortium of people that just that the money in. | :51:00. | :51:05. | |
The ?6 to ?9 billion that this will cost. | :51:06. | :51:07. | |
They will also project manage this and be independent | :51:08. | :51:09. | |
You met Chris Grayling the Transport Secretary last week. | :51:10. | :51:17. | |
Can you give is any idea of where we are? | :51:18. | :51:20. | |
He is keen to see this happen, but there needs to be further | :51:21. | :51:23. | |
work to make sure that, one, the finances stack up. | :51:24. | :51:26. | |
The last thing we want to do is start a programme | :51:27. | :51:28. | |
is the finances don't stack up and it doesn't happen. | :51:29. | :51:31. | |
There is some complex engineering to happen. | :51:32. | :51:34. | |
This needs to be done to make sure it is feasible | :51:35. | :51:37. | |
Hospitals in the South East depend on staff from outside | :51:38. | :51:44. | |
the UK to run their wards and care for patients. | :51:45. | :51:49. | |
Those staff include professionals from the European Union. | :51:50. | :51:51. | |
As MPs voted this week to trigger Article 50, | :51:52. | :51:53. | |
the formal process to be the EU, the question of what happened | :51:54. | :52:00. | |
to those staff in the future and the effect Brexit will have | :52:01. | :52:03. | |
New figures compiled by BBC radio Kent show that the majority | :52:04. | :52:08. | |
of hospital trusts in the South East are choosing to recruit | :52:09. | :52:11. | |
people from overseas to cope with our shortages. | :52:12. | :52:13. | |
In response to a Freedom of Information request, | :52:14. | :52:15. | |
the BBC found that this apply to ten out of the 12 NHS | :52:16. | :52:18. | |
and Midwifery Council which shows a sharp decline in the number | :52:19. | :52:25. | |
of nurses registering to work in the UK. | :52:26. | :52:27. | |
Last July, more than 1000 EU nurses registered to work in this country. | :52:28. | :52:30. | |
Joining us now is Hamza Omir, who is a nurse. | :52:31. | :52:40. | |
And the South East officer for the Royal College of Nursing. | :52:41. | :52:43. | |
You speak to staff working in the NHS. | :52:44. | :52:47. | |
What is the mood among EU nationals since the Brexit vote? | :52:48. | :52:52. | |
I think they have become more anxious. | :52:53. | :52:54. | |
They are uncertain about what will happen. | :52:55. | :52:56. | |
The people here have to cope with having to leave their job | :52:57. | :52:59. | |
Leaving their family, the country, to move to another country to work. | :53:00. | :53:04. | |
If they come here, there is uncertainty about the future. | :53:05. | :53:06. | |
There is a certain amount of challenges to face. | :53:07. | :53:13. | |
That is why the figure that you have from the nursing | :53:14. | :53:19. | |
As well as the decrease in terms of the number | :53:20. | :53:23. | |
that we have an increase in number leaving off the register | :53:24. | :53:25. | |
For example, the language test introduced at the same time | :53:26. | :53:34. | |
It is not completely all due to the Brexit issue. | :53:35. | :53:39. | |
If you look at the figures, it was still going up into July. | :53:40. | :53:48. | |
The language test, when I have spoken to people, what tends | :53:49. | :53:51. | |
to happen is that it slows the process. | :53:52. | :53:54. | |
But all the big trusts provide support, the big trust, in terms | :53:55. | :53:57. | |
Even the NMC has become more flexible. | :53:58. | :54:04. | |
People can retake part of the tests if they haven't got through. | :54:05. | :54:07. | |
The language test is going the process but not | :54:08. | :54:09. | |
What would you like to hear from the Government? | :54:10. | :54:12. | |
What we would like is greater certainty about these people. | :54:13. | :54:16. | |
If they are moving across, they can see in the short | :54:17. | :54:18. | |
and long-term positions whether they have a future here. | :54:19. | :54:26. | |
To give him credit, the Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, | :54:27. | :54:29. | |
He told the select committee recently we want to start in the EU | :54:30. | :54:33. | |
to continue to work on NHS when we leave the European Union. | :54:34. | :54:36. | |
And he says we are confident we can negotiate that. | :54:37. | :54:40. | |
All that is empty words to be honest until the Government actually | :54:41. | :54:43. | |
guarantees the position of EU people already here. | :54:44. | :54:45. | |
We were told by many Leave campaigners that we wouldn't | :54:46. | :54:50. | |
have a situation where those EU workers already here | :54:51. | :54:53. | |
The Government has decided not to give that assurance. | :54:54. | :54:58. | |
I think this should and could give that assurance and get | :54:59. | :55:03. | |
lots of countries to say they would let Brits | :55:04. | :55:06. | |
They have decided not to. I don't know why. | :55:07. | :55:11. | |
It would be simple administrative process, instead we have | :55:12. | :55:13. | |
It is affecting the NHS and other public services as well. | :55:14. | :55:17. | |
Ultimately, it could end up costing our NHS money | :55:18. | :55:19. | |
Maria Caulfield is not only a nurse, you are a Leave campaigner | :55:20. | :55:26. | |
We already have a shortage in the NHS as you know. | :55:27. | :55:33. | |
If numbers are applying to work down numbers leaving | :55:34. | :55:36. | |
the nursing register are up, we are facing | :55:37. | :55:38. | |
There is no guarantee around European health care professionals | :55:39. | :55:49. | |
If the future is not certain, they will either go back to the EU | :55:50. | :55:55. | |
One of the recommendations we made on the select committee | :55:56. | :55:59. | |
when we heard evidence is that we should be giving | :56:00. | :56:02. | |
certainty to EU citizens here who are working. | :56:03. | :56:06. | |
Theresa May give that assurance at prime ministers questions this | :56:07. | :56:12. | |
week was that she has been in talks with the other 27 member states. | :56:13. | :56:19. | |
They are not doing rear steward if they are leaving in large numbers? | :56:20. | :56:22. | |
The trouble is, she can't officially make it our policy | :56:23. | :56:24. | |
because what she wants to do is get reassurance for the addition | :56:25. | :56:27. | |
of this is leaving in -- living in the EU from | :56:28. | :56:29. | |
They won't give that, particularly Germany won't give that. | :56:30. | :56:33. | |
She has to have the interests of British citizens in mind | :56:34. | :56:35. | |
Sorry, Maria, but by taking the position that she is, | :56:36. | :56:39. | |
she is endangering our British citizens in other countries. | :56:40. | :56:41. | |
If she says she would guarantee the position of EU residents here... | :56:42. | :56:44. | |
She has said that she will only do it if other countries follow suit. | :56:45. | :56:50. | |
Is there a danger that enraged after -- NHS staff become pawns | :56:51. | :56:54. | |
She could have taken a different position and has decided not to. | :56:55. | :56:59. | |
We don't want Brits and EU residency to be used as pawns in negotiations. | :57:00. | :57:03. | |
If she took a moral high ground and said we will guarantee this | :57:04. | :57:06. | |
situation, which a lot of Leave campaigners said would happen. | :57:07. | :57:09. | |
She could and she has said that is what she wants to do. | :57:10. | :57:13. | |
rights of Brits in the EU, then she would be very happy to do | :57:14. | :57:17. | |
that quickly outside the negotiations as one | :57:18. | :57:19. | |
Couldn't you just recruit more from other countries, Hamza, | :57:20. | :57:24. | |
There has always been recruitment from other countries from. | :57:25. | :57:27. | |
Clearly, when these people come in their assessment | :57:28. | :57:30. | |
to go on the register is slightly different. | :57:31. | :57:32. | |
With the EU, we have mutual recognition. | :57:33. | :57:35. | |
At present, they just do a language test to be on the register. | :57:36. | :57:41. | |
That is why all the hospitals are recruiting from Greece, | :57:42. | :57:44. | |
Portugal, getting people to come quicker. | :57:45. | :57:45. | |
The Government has pointed out it is investing in front-line staff, | :57:46. | :57:48. | |
it is training thousands of new nurses to stop silly, | :57:49. | :57:53. | |
it is better to train them from this country, | :57:54. | :57:55. | |
then we don't have the language barrier, all the other problems | :57:56. | :57:58. | |
They can say that, but at the same time | :57:59. | :58:01. | |
They have a weird position on all of this. | :58:02. | :58:08. | |
Ultimately, a lot of these changes are going to cost | :58:09. | :58:11. | |
We are having a massive reorganisation that we were promised | :58:12. | :58:16. | |
We have to focus on having decent patient care and making sure | :58:17. | :58:20. | |
we have the right workforce to live with that. | :58:21. | :58:22. | |
And we had a big drop in the number of people applying to study nursing | :58:23. | :58:26. | |
That does sound like it is a direct result of Government policy | :58:27. | :58:30. | |
to abolish these NHS bursaries that students use to get. | :58:31. | :58:32. | |
I think I was very vocal in my opinion of scrapping the bursary. | :58:33. | :58:37. | |
I did think we would see a drop in nursing numbers. | :58:38. | :58:41. | |
But today Hamza's point about nurses outside the EU, | :58:42. | :58:46. | |
I have seen it when nurses have applied to work | :58:47. | :58:49. | |
here because they are outside the EU they have struggled to get | :58:50. | :58:52. | |
What I am hoping as we are moving forward with Brexit, | :58:53. | :58:55. | |
we will have a much more global immigration policy. | :58:56. | :58:57. | |
If we have skills and shortages, we have to match up and make it | :58:58. | :59:01. | |
possible for people to come and work it. | :59:02. | :59:03. | |
If that doesn't happen, we are in I jotted territory, this | :59:04. | :59:05. | |
They are already turning away nurses from countries outside | :59:06. | :59:11. | |
Simply because we had people within the EU that | :59:12. | :59:20. | |
if you were outside the EU or in the Commonwealth, | :59:21. | :59:22. | |
I am hoping that that will change as we go forward. | :59:23. | :59:26. | |
Now, time for some of the other news you may have missed in 60 seconds. | :59:27. | :59:35. | |
A private members bill to ban authorities from describing murders | :59:36. | :59:38. | |
as honour killings has been debated in the Commons. | :59:39. | :59:40. | |
Nusrat Ghani, the MP for Wealden, said the term was unjustifiable. | :59:41. | :59:43. | |
They are murder, assault, rape and enslavement. | :59:44. | :59:52. | |
And we need to be able to use a language that is appropriate. | :59:53. | :59:55. | |
Drivers in some parts of Kent could see the cost | :59:56. | :59:57. | |
In Tunbridge Wells, the council is increasing pay and display | :59:58. | :00:01. | |
charges for the third time in four years. | :00:02. | :00:03. | |
While in Canterbury, parking permits will rise | :00:04. | :00:05. | |
Is another example of a very greedy council. | :00:06. | :00:11. | |
Treating residents it is meant to represent as a cash cow. | :00:12. | :00:14. | |
But the council insists that the money would go | :00:15. | :00:18. | |
And they were protests in Brighton and Broadstairs | :00:19. | :00:22. | |
against Donald Trump's new immigration policy. | :00:23. | :00:24. | |
Nationals from seven Muslim majority countries | :00:25. | :00:25. | |
A petition has been signed by more than 1 million people to stop | :00:26. | :00:31. | |
This was countered by another one created by a Dover businessmen | :00:32. | :00:37. | |
We'll talk about the Labour Party, Anneliese, and that divisive vote | :00:38. | :00:48. | |
in the Commons last week on article 50. | :00:49. | :00:50. | |
If you had been an MP, would you have defied the whip | :00:51. | :00:53. | |
Well, I am certainly not happy with the way | :00:54. | :00:56. | |
I think what you saw was Labour MPs representing their constituencies | :00:57. | :01:00. | |
which voted in a whole variety of different ways. | :01:01. | :01:02. | |
I obviously see what is going on from the inside, | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
being in Brussels and Strasbourg as well as here in the South East, | :01:06. | :01:08. | |
and I am deeply concerned about what is going to happen | :01:09. | :01:11. | |
What is going to happen to other local NHS, | :01:12. | :01:14. | |
Or indeed the future of your own party, but I'm afraid | :01:15. | :01:18. | |
That's the least of it, quite frankly. | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
That's all we've got time for in the South East this week. | :01:24. | :01:26. | |
My thanks to both my guess, Anneliese Dodds and Maria Caulfield, | :01:27. | :01:28. | |
and Julia will be back here next week. | :01:29. | :01:31. | |
programme at another time an airport expansion, but thank you to both of | :01:32. | :01:34. | |
you for being here. Back to you, Andrew. | :01:35. | :01:40. | |
Will the Government's plan to boost house-building | :01:41. | :01:43. | |
Could a handful of Conservative MPs cause problems for | :01:44. | :01:46. | |
And what is President Trump going to do next? | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
You have been following the genesis of this housing white paper. What do | :01:52. | :02:09. | |
you make of it? I think it will be quite spectacular, pretty radical | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
stuff. We heard bits about beating up on developers. I understand it | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
will be a whack, walk, covering every single problem with housing | :02:19. | :02:23. | |
supply and trying to solve it. Which means bad news if you are a huge fan | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
of the green belt, because they will go round that the other way by | :02:28. | :02:31. | |
forcing large quotas on councils are making it down to councils where | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
they build. If you fill up your brown space in towns they will have | :02:36. | :02:39. | |
to trigger the exceptional circumstances bit of the bill to | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
beat on green belts. Beating up developers, opening up the market | :02:44. | :02:46. | |
for renters across the board. And Theresa May, one of the most | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
defining thing she could do on the domestic agenda. I am not as excited | :02:53. | :02:58. | |
as Tom about this. I look back to 2004, do you remember the Kate | :02:59. | :03:05. | |
Barker report? Successive governments, successive prime | :03:06. | :03:09. | |
ministers have been promising to address the housing shortage. In | :03:10. | :03:13. | |
2004 Kate Barker recommended hundreds of thousands new homes. | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
Gordon Brown talked about 3 million new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
happens. The reason is at the end of the day this is local politics, | :03:24. | :03:26. | |
local councillors need to keep their seats and they won't keep their | :03:27. | :03:29. | |
seats if there are hugely controversial developments locally | :03:30. | :03:34. | |
that they support. Yes, the government can and are proposing to | :03:35. | :03:38. | |
overrule councils that don't back local developments, but they may | :03:39. | :03:42. | |
find themselves completely inundated with those cases. I think that is | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
the whole point of it, to take on those NIMBY often Tory councils and | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
force them to build. I can't think of a better defining issue for | :03:52. | :03:59. | |
Theresa May than sticking one in the eye of some quite well off half Tory | :04:00. | :04:06. | |
countryside councils. The government gives councils a quota of homes they | :04:07. | :04:09. | |
have to fill, if they don't have to fill that all run out overland to | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
fill the quota, the government then comes in and tells them they have to | :04:14. | :04:17. | |
built on the green belt? How is that going to work? At the moment the | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
green belt is absolutely sacrosanct in British politics. They'll have to | :04:22. | :04:24. | |
do some work on educating people on what green belts means. Potato | :04:25. | :04:31. | |
farms, golf courses... At the moment the idea people have of the green | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
belt being verdant fields needs to be dismantled. You are right. I | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
agree with Tom, 11 million people in the private rental sector in the UK. | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
In the last election more voted Labour than conservative. This is an | :04:46. | :04:49. | |
area where Theresa May would look to expand her vote. The problem has | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
always been, the same problem we have with pension policy and why | :04:54. | :04:58. | |
pensioners have done better than working families in recent years. | :04:59. | :05:01. | |
They are older and they vote more and anything to the detriment of | :05:02. | :05:09. | |
older people. I wonder how they will get private money to come in on | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
anything like this go they would need to have a huge expansion? There | :05:14. | :05:19. | |
is a huge amount of speculation and one of the thing that locks up the | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
system as you have people buying land, taking out a stake of land in | :05:24. | :05:27. | |
the hope that one point it may at some point free up. At the end of | :05:28. | :05:30. | |
the day, unless you have councils far more willing to quickly fast | :05:31. | :05:34. | |
track these applications, which they won't for the reason I said before, | :05:35. | :05:38. | |
it's a very long-term investment. Ed Miliband proposed three-year leases | :05:39. | :05:45. | |
in which the rent could only go up by an agreed formula, probably the | :05:46. | :05:50. | |
three years to give the young families a certain stability over | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
that period. He had a use it or lose it rules for planning development, | :05:56. | :05:59. | |
if you don't use it you lose the planning rights. Somebody else gets | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
it. The Tories disparaged that at the time. This is at the centre of | :06:04. | :06:08. | |
their policy now. This is probably item number four of | :06:09. | :06:12. | |
Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa May has wholesale pinched in the | :06:13. | :06:16. | |
last six months or so. Why not? I think if you look at the change in | :06:17. | :06:21. | |
mood across housing and planning over the last 5-6 years, it used to | :06:22. | :06:26. | |
be an issue very much of green belt versus London planners. Now you have | :06:27. | :06:30. | |
grandparents living in houses in the countryside, knowing their | :06:31. | :06:32. | |
grandchildren can't get on the housing ladder any longer. Maybe a | :06:33. | :06:39. | |
bit more intervention in the market, tougher on renting conditions, maybe | :06:40. | :06:41. | |
that is exactly what the country needs. Will they meet the 1 million | :06:42. | :06:47. | |
target? It would be a defiance of every political thing that has | :06:48. | :06:50. | |
happened in the last ten years. I think Tom is right, if there is only | :06:51. | :06:55. | |
one difference between Theresa May and David Cameron it's the | :06:56. | :06:57. | |
willingness of the state to intervene. When Ed Miliband said | :06:58. | :07:04. | |
that he was seen as communism, but Theresa May can get away with it. | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
How serious is this talk of a couple of dozen Tories who were very loyal | :07:10. | :07:16. | |
over voting for the principle of Article 50 but may now be tempted to | :07:17. | :07:21. | |
vote for some amendments to Article 50 legislation that they would find | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
quite attractive? I think that threat has certainly been taken | :07:27. | :07:30. | |
seriously by levers. I spoke to the campaign group Leaves Means Leave | :07:31. | :07:36. | |
last night. The figure they mentioned was up to 20 remaining | :07:37. | :07:39. | |
Tories. That sounds a lot to me but that is what they are concerned | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
about and those Tories would come together with Labour and the SNP to | :07:43. | :07:48. | |
vote for that amendment. Although that amendment sounds rather nice | :07:49. | :07:51. | |
and democratic, actually in the eyes of many levers that is a wrecking | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
amendment. Because what you are doing is giving Parliament a sort of | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
veto over whatever deal Theresa May brings back. What they want is the | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
vote to be before that deal is finalised. It isn't necessarily the | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
case that if Parliament decided they didn't like that deal we would just | :08:09. | :08:14. | |
go to WTO, we would fall out of the European Union. There are mixed | :08:15. | :08:17. | |
views as to whether we might remain in and things could be extended. My | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
understanding is the people making the amendments, they won any deal | :08:23. | :08:29. | |
that is done to be brought to Parliament in time, so that if | :08:30. | :08:34. | |
Parliament fancies it it's done, but if it does and it doesn't just mean | :08:35. | :08:38. | |
go to WTO rules. There will be time to go back, renegotiate or think | :08:39. | :08:43. | |
again? The question is where it puts Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of | :08:44. | :08:48. | |
the options... Once we trigger Article 50 the two negotiation | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
begins on the power switches to Europe. They can run out the clock | :08:55. | :08:57. | |
and it will be worse for us than them. I don't think either option is | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
particularly appealing. I think what seems like a rather Serena week for | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
Article 50 this week isn't going to be reflective of what will happen | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
next. The way the government's position is at the moment, if at the | :09:10. | :09:13. | |
end the only choice Parliament has is to vote for the deal or crash out | :09:14. | :09:18. | |
on WTO rules, then even the remainder is going to vote for the | :09:19. | :09:21. | |
deal even if they don't like it, because they would regard crashing | :09:22. | :09:25. | |
out as the worst of all possible results. Possibly. It will be a | :09:26. | :09:31. | |
great game of bluff if Theresa May fights off any of these amendments | :09:32. | :09:35. | |
on Wednesday and gets a straightforward deal or no Deal | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
vote. I have a funny feeling this amendment, if it's chosen, we must | :09:40. | :09:42. | |
remember because we don't know if they will choose this amendment, if | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
it does go to a vote on Wednesday it will be very tight indeed. Remember, | :09:48. | :09:52. | |
one final thing Theresa May can do if she gets Parliament voting | :09:53. | :09:57. | |
against, as Isabel would have it, she could try to get a new | :09:58. | :10:00. | |
parliament and go for a general election. And probably get a huge | :10:01. | :10:07. | |
majority to do so. The Lords, it goes there after the February | :10:08. | :10:13. | |
recess. They are very pro-Europe, but does their instinct for | :10:14. | :10:22. | |
self-preservation override that? I think that is it. A Tory Lord said | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
this morning I will vote to block it on a conscience measure, but you | :10:28. | :10:30. | |
have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
the Lords reform saying is an outrage. I doubt they will vote for | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
their own demise, to hasten their own demise by blocking it. What did | :10:40. | :10:47. | |
you make of Doctor Gorka smart fascinating. Cut from the same cloth | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
as his boss. I thought it was extraordinary listening to him, | :10:52. | :10:53. | |
saying everything is going dutifully to plan. But at the end of the day, | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
what they are doing is what people in America voted for Trump to do. If | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling on why America voted for Trump, they | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
went into this with their eyes wide open. One of the top fears among | :11:07. | :11:12. | |
American voters, particularly Republican leading ones was | :11:13. | :11:15. | |
America's immigration policy is or could be letting in terror arrests. | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
As far as he is concerned, he is doing what he was elected to do. | :11:20. | :11:23. | |
This whole year is turning into a wonderful year long lecture series | :11:24. | :11:26. | |
on how democracy works at a fundamental level. I'm not sure | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
anyone wanted it but it's what we've got. This same in the way we've been | :11:31. | :11:36. | |
talking about direct democracy and Parliamentary democracy. The same is | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
happening in America between executive and judicial branches. We | :11:42. | :11:43. | |
are seeing the limits of presidential power. Regardless of | :11:44. | :11:47. | |
the fact that people voted for Trump they voted for senators. The judge | :11:48. | :11:51. | |
who blocks this was appointed by George W Bush. So-called Judge | :11:52. | :11:58. | |
Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush! It's fascinating we're having all | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
these conversations now that I never bought five years ago we would be | :12:02. | :12:06. | |
having at such a fundamental level. Has the media yet worked out how to | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
cover the Trump administration or has he got us behaving like headless | :12:11. | :12:14. | |
chickens? He says something incendiary and we all run over to do | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
that and when you pick it off it turns out not to be as incendiary as | :12:20. | :12:24. | |
we thought? And then back doing something and we all rush over | :12:25. | :12:28. | |
there. Is he making fools of us? Is exactly what he did in the election | :12:29. | :12:35. | |
campaign. So many quick and fast outrageous comments frontrunner on a | :12:36. | :12:38. | |
daily basis, no one single one of them had full news cycle time to be | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
pored over and examined. I think there is a problem with this. | :12:43. | :12:45. | |
Although he keeps the upper hand, keeps the agenda and keeps on the | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
populist ground, the problem is it easy to campaign like that. If you | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
are governing in a state of semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the | :12:55. | :12:57. | |
American public will be comfortable with that. They don't really want | :12:58. | :13:00. | |
their government to be swirling chaos all the time, as fascinating | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
as it might be on TV. They will be exhausted by it, I already am. I | :13:06. | :13:12. | |
have been interviewing White House administration official since 1976 | :13:13. | :13:14. | |
and that is the first time someone hasn't given me a straight answer on | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
America supporting the EU. That is a different world. | :13:19. | :13:20. | |
Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with | :13:21. | :13:24. | |
the Daily Politics - and I'll be back here | :13:25. | :13:26. | |
Remember, if it's Sunday - it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:27. | :14:05. | |
TV: He's not your father. WOMAN GASPS | :14:06. | :14:18. | |
so why not pay your TV licence in weekly instalments, too? | :14:19. | :14:31. |