08/12/2013 Sunday Politics South West

The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday

morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%

pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who

credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine

tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?

Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed

Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will

be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by

And in the South West: The battle to cope with a rising tide of dementia.

And is the Chancellor boosting our town centres and small businesses or

failing working people? had on the capital, its politics and

those who met him. With me, three scruffy eternal

students. They would celebrate if they achieved a C+. But they are all

we could afford and there will be no pay rise for them. They will be

glued to an electronic device throughout the programme and if we

are lucky they might stop there internet shopping and tweet

something intelligent. But don't hold your breath. Janan Ganesh,

Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last week, storms were battering Britain,

the East Coast was hit by the worst tidal surge in more than a century,

thousands of people had to be evacuated and Nelson Mandela died.

The downed the news agenda was the small matter of George Osborne's

Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his takeaways and his first opportunity

to announce some economic cheer. It might be winter outside, but in

the studios it is awesome. Autumn Statement time. -- autumn. This is a

moment of TV history. Normally when the Chancellor delivers these

statements, he has to say the economy is actually a lot worse than

everyone predicted. This time, he can stand up and say the economy is

better than everybody predicted. A lot better.

Britain is currently growing faster than any other major advanced

economy. Faster than France, which is contracting, faster than Germany,

faster even than America. At this Autumn Statement last year, there

were repeated predictions that borrowing would go up. Instead,

borrowing is down, and down significantly more than forecast.

But George Osborne said the good numbers still mean more tough

decisions. We will not give up in giving in our country's debts. We

will not spend the money from lower borrowing. We will not squander the

harder and games of the British people. -- hard earned gains. In

other news, further cuts to government departments. The state

pension age will increase in the 2040s, affecting people in their 40s

now. There were some goodies, like discounted business rates for small

businesses, free school meals for infants, favoured by the Lib Dems,

and those marriage tax breaks below that by the Tories. But, as with all

big fiscal events, it takes a while for the details to sink in.

The marriage tax allowance is a long-standing commitment that he

could not abandon. It does help those families were only one goes

out to work. It does not go to higher rate taxpayers, I don't

think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I

am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There

is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday

Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?

In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a

red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more

than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying

about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in

terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting

the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was

very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last

time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by

now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to

hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the

Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are

significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be

just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also

worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been

revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of

budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very

much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that

it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the

years after the next general election. As the day draws to a

close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the

graphics budget of my colleague, Robert Preston. It's as good as it

gets these days, I don't think the viewers will mind. It's very Sunday

Politics, if I might say. That is very worrying.

Was this a watershed for George Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed

Balls? We can all make the case that it is the wrong sort of recovery, a

consumer led recovery. People are spending money they don't have. At

the end of the day, it for George Osborne, it is growth, the first

time he has been able to talk about growth. It allows him to control the

baseline, the fiscal debate for the next generation. For Ed Balls,

nearly not a good performance. But don't write this man off. Judging by

Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it all is, said he did a good interview

this morning on a rival TV channel. I feel the fact that the Tories hate

Ed Balls so passionately is probably a good reason that they should hang

onto him, in that Labour sends his effectiveness. May be the Tories

hope that they hold on to him as well? A lot of people shouting at

someone and mocking their speech impediment, that is politics that

doesn't make me want to engage. The takeaway will be lots of people

thinking that none of these people are people they like. Who is the

main heckler on the Labour front bench West remarked I suppose he

can't cast any stones. It would be easier to sympathise with him, if it

were not that David Cameron went through a similar situation and John

Bercow did not step in to stop the wall of noise. It was guaranteed a

good happen to a Labour politician. It's painful to remove him because

he had a Parliamentary following and he will kick up a fuss. I think he's

much more pragmatic on issues like business than Ed Miliband. I'm told

he wasn't keen on the energy price freeze. The problem with Ed Balls,

to have the first words that you say, the Chancellor is in denial,

after he is presiding over growth, it means nobody is listening to you.

Who would replace him? Certainly not Alistair Darling, the side of the

referendum and even afterwards. Ed Balls did get a roasting in the

press and on Twitter. He seemed to disappear from public view following

the Autumn Statement. But a little bird tells me he managed one

interview this morning before he went off to an all-important piano

recital this afternoon. Watch out, Jools Holland, he could be after

your job. How bad was his performance on Thursday? Here is the

Shadow Chancellor in action. The Chancellor is incomplete denial

about the central facts that are defining this government in office.

He used to say he would balance the books in 2015. Now he wants us to

congratulate him for saying he will do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this

government, it is clearly not just the badgers that move the goalposts.

No mention of the universal credit in the statement. IDS, in deep

shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the

Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy, in other words. Why do more and more

of your Labour colleagues think that your boss is below the water line?

I'm not sure I accept the premise of your suggestion. I don't think my

colleagues believe that George Osborne has a superior argument. I

think Ed Balls will certainly trying his best, loud and clear, to make

the case there is a cost of living crisis in this country and the

Chancellor doesn't understand this. That was essentially the heat of the

debate on the Autumn Statement day. One leading Labour MPs said to me

that Ed Balls is always looking back, fixated with the rear-view

mirror, that was the exact quote. A Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has

a strong argument to make, unfortunately it was not made well

in the chamber today. Quoting the Daily Mail, this is two poor

performances. A quote that I can't use because it uses too many four

letter words. Baroness Armstrong, speaking at Progress, a former

Labour Cabinet minister, we are not sufficiently concerned about public

spending, how we would pay for what we are talking about. Quite a

battering? There were two sets of quotes you were giving. The couple

were about the strategy for tackling public expenditure. I think it's

fair that we talk about that. The rest were pretty unattributed,

nameless sources. You have never given and of the record briefing? We

have conversations off camera, but I don't think you have a wealth of

evidence to say that somehow Ed Balls's arguments were wrong. He was

making the point that, ultimately, it is a government that does not

have its finger on the pulse about what most of your viewers are

concerned about, that wages are being squeezed and prices are

getting higher and higher. You have had time to study the Autumn

Statement. What part of it does Labour disagree with? It is a very

big question. I think the overall strategy the Autumn Statement is

setting out does not deal with the fundamental problems in the economy.

What measures do you disagree with? A lot of it is the absence of

measures we would have put in if we were doing the Autumn Statement. If

you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to

get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of

doing that is on infrastructure. We believe in bringing forward 's

investment and housing, getting some of the fundamentals right in our

economy. By planting, the business lending we have to do. We have seen

a lamentable failing. There are big structural reforms that we need.

Ultimately, the public are concerned about the cost of living crisis.

That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above

all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing

to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare

cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.

You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,

correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are

going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not

include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare

cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not

in the short-term plan because, as we believe, a triple lock is a good

idea. In the longer term, if you are talking about structural welfare

issues, you do have to think about pensions because they have to be

sustainable if we are living longer. I think that is about the

careful management. Let me show you what Ed Balls said on this programme

at the start of the summer. As for pensioners, I think this is a real

question. George Osborne is going to announce his cap in two weeks time.

I don't know if he will exclude pension spending or including. Our

plan is to include it. Pension spending would be included in the

welfare cap? That is our plan, exactly what I just said. Over the

long-term, if you have a serious welfare cap structural welfare

issues, over 20, 30, 40 year period, you can't say that we will

not work and pensions as part of that. Pensions would be part of the

Labour cap? In the longer term. What is the longer term? If you win 2015?

We want to stick with the triple lock on the pension, that is the

Government approach to their short-term welfare cap. In the

longer term, for example, on the winter fuel allowance, we should not

necessarily be... There are lots of benefits... I understand that, I am

talking about the basic state pension, is that part of your

welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40 year frame... Even you will not be

around in government, then. You are writing me off already. You have to

focus on welfare changes, pensions have to be affordable as part of

that. It's dangerous to say, well, if you are going to have a serious

welfare cap, we should not look at pensions cost. It would be

irresponsible. Will pensions be part of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if

Labour is in power? In our long-term cap we have to make sure... I'm

talking about 2015-16. We haven't seen the proposition the Government

has put before us. You claim people of ?1600 worse off

under the coalition. That is true when you compare to pay and prices.

Can you confirm that calculation does not include the ?700 tax cut

from raising the income tax threshold, huge savings on mortgages

because of low interest or the freezing of council tax? It doesn't

include the tax and benefit changes. If you do want to look at

those, last year, the ISS said they could be making people worse off. It

might not include those factors. The VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child

benefit cuts, they all add up. My understanding is that the ISS

figures have said people are ?891 worse off if you look at the tax and

benefit changes since 2010. You have to look at wages and prices. The ISS

confirmed our approach was broadly the right way of assessing what is

happening. The Chancellor was saying, real household disposable

incomes are rising. He is completely out of touch. Can you sum up the

macro economic policy for Labour? Invest in the future, make sure we

have the right approach for the long-term politicking. Tackle the

cost of living crisis people are facing.

Now, let's talk to the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid

Javid. Discovery, underpinned by rising

house prices, increasing personal debt, do you accept that is

unsustainable? I accept the OBE are also said the

reason why this country is facing more these challenges -- OBR.

That is because we went through a Labour recession, the worst we have

seen in 100 years. But do you accept that a recovery underpinned by these

things I have just read out isn't sustainable? We set out a long-term

plan for recovery, and again this week. We have shown with the tough

decisions we have made already, the country can enjoy a recovery. There

are still a lot of difficult decisions. The biggest risk are

Labour's plans. The March projections work at for those -- for

both business investment and exports. Suddenly it is expected to

rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround in investment. How is it credible? I

have been in business before politics. Any business person

listening will know, when you have gone through a recession, the

deepest in 100 years, it will hit investment, profits, you can't make

plans again until you have confidence in the economy. That is

what this country is seeing now under this government. This is an

assumption made independently. The fall in business investment is

because of the recession. The forecast increases, 5% next year,

and so on, it is based on the independent forecast. Based on fact.

If you look at the investment plans of companies, this week, the

Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land Rover has plans to create more

jobs, these investment plans are coming through now because of the

confidence generated by this government, such as the cut in

corporation tax which Labour would increase. Are the export forecasts

more credible? The 15 years, our share of world trade decline.

Suddenly starting next year, it stops falling. That's not credible.

I worked in finance the 20 years. I have yet to find any forecast which

is fully right. Under Labour, we would have forecasts made by Gordon

Brown who would announce he would hit all his targets. Now we have an

independent system. Do you accept, if exports or

business investment do not pick up, then a purely consumer led recovery

is not sustainable? We need more than a consumer led recovery. We

need consumer investment to go up. On Xbox, it is noticeable that

experts are primarily down because the markets we trade with, the

eurozone markets, are depressed. Many have just come out of

recession. Or they are still in recession. If you look at exports to

non-EU countries, they are up 30%. 120% to China. 100% to Russia.

Will you keep the triple lock for the state pension beyond 2015? Yes,

long term. That's why it is not part of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie

cannot answer that question. It is straightforward.

House prices are now rising ten times faster than average earnings.

That's not good. House prices are rising, partly reflecting recovery.

Ten times faster than average earnings, how can people afford to

buy homes if it carries on? What you would hope, this is the evidence, if

you look at the plans of the month companies, they are planning new

homes which will mean that, as this demand spurs that investment, more

homes will come about. We need to give people the means to buy those

homes. We have introduced the help to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says

it will start rising again but as household debt rises again Petr Cech

reduces, -- as household debt reduces, we need to make sure there

are checks in place. Wages have not been rising in real terms for quite

some time. Over the next five years, even as the economy grows, by about

15% according the OBR to the OBR -- but people will not benefit. These

hard-working families will not share in the recovery. What is the best

way to help those families? The government doesn't set wages. What

we can do is influence the overall economy. We don't have a magic

lever. Wages have been stagnating for five years. When will people get

a proper salary? The best way for wage growth is a growing economy,

more jobs. We have more people employed in Britain today than at

any time in our history. The biggest risk to recovery is if we let Labour

into the Treasury with more spending and more debt. Which got us into

this trouble. By whatever measure you care to choose, would people be

better off come the 20 15th election than they were in 2010? Yes, they

will be. Look at jobs. Already more people employed than at any other

time in history. Will they be better off? The best way for anyone to

raise their living standards is access to a growing job market. But

will they be better off? I believe people will be. Compared to 2010.

Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This is a credible measure.

Now, what do you think the Education Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at

school? Hard-working? Hand always up? Top of the class? Well, if he

wasn't passionate about education then, he is now. In fact, since he

took office, it seems he hasn't stopped working very hard indeed.

When the coalition came to power, Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they

were on a long march to reform education. Just like Mao, they faced

a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion for new school places. They extended

Labour's academy programme. There's now about 3,000 in England. But

then, they marched even further, creating free schools run by

parents, funded by taxpayers. 174 have opened so far. The schools

admission code was changed, to give parents more choice.

And a pupil premium was introduced, currently, an extra ?900 funding for

each disadvantaged child. An overhaul of the national

curriculum provoked criticism. Chairman Gove mocked detractors as

"bad academia". But exam reforms didn't quite go to plan. Although

GCSEs got harder, plans to replace A-levels had to be abandoned.

Ultimately, the true test of these reforms will be what happens in the

classroom. The person in charge of making sure those classrooms are up

to scratch in England is the Chief Inspector Of Schools, head of

Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins me now.

Over the past 15 years, we have doubled spending on schools even

allowing for inflation. By international standards, we are

stagnating, why? I said last year that mediocrity had settled into the

system. Too many children were coasting in schools, which is why we

changed the grading structure, we removed that awful word,

satisfactory. Saying that good is now the only acceptable standard and

schools had a limited time in which to get to that. We are seeing

gradually, it is difficult to say this in the week we have had the

OECD report. Things have gradually improved. I will come onto that in a

minute. Explain this. International comparisons show us flat-lining or

even falling in some subjects, including science. For 20 years, our

domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece

of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there

a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak

as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is

actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is

about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists

conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things

are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters

were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th

for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,

Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or

outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this

level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last

years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,

absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.

Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is

making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually

translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much

up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good

enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in

GCSE and grade 2. We have to make sure that is maintained. The

Government has based its reforms on similar reforms in Sweden. In

opposition they were endlessly going to Stockholm to find out how it was

done. Swedish schools are doing even worse than ours in the tables. Why

are we copying failure? The secretary of state believes, and I

actually believe, as somebody who has come from an academy model, that

if you hand power and resources, you hand autonomy to the people on the

ground, to the people in the classroom, in the corridors, in the

playgrounds, things work. If you allow the great monoliths that used

to have responsibility for education in the past to take control again,

you will see a reverse in standards. You have got to actually empower

those people that make the difference. That is why autonomy and

freedom is important. We spent a lot of money moving what were local

authority schools to become academies and new free school czar

being set up as well. When the academies are pretty much the same

level of autonomy, the free school is maybe a little bit more, the

evidence we have had so far is that they don't really perform any better

than local authority schools? Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they

might even be doing worse? These are early days. We will say more about

this on weapons they when we produce the annual report. The sponsored

academies that took over the worst schools in the country, in the most

difficult circumstances, in the most disadvantaged communities, are doing

much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the

lass academic subjects question my cull OK, but they are doing better

than previous schools. If you look at the top performing nations in the

world, they focus on the quality of teaching. The best graduates coming

to education. They professionally develop them. They make sure they

spot the brightest talents and get them into positions as soon as

possible. We have got to do the same if we are going to catch up with

those jurisdictions. This isn't just a British problem. It seems to be a

European problem. The East Asian countries now dominate the top of

the tables. What's the most important lesson we should learn

from East Asia? Attitudes to work. We need to make sure that we invest

in good teachers, good leaders. We have to make sure that students have

the right attitudes to work. It's no good getting good people into the

classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,

disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers

doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from

that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government

education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am

independent, Ofsted is independent. I believe we are saying the right

things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you

are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.

Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a

pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become

better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going

to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do

better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will

also challenge government when we think they are going wrong. Many

people in the education establishment think your primary

purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into

becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of

academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are

the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I

am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see

academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The

study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise

standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school

leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody

with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot

air has been expounded on the issue of whether teachers should be

qualified or not. If qualified teacher status was the gold

standard, why is it that one in three teachers, one in three lessons

that will observe are not good enough. Taught by qualified

teachers. I've not yet met a headteacher that has not appointed

by qualified staff when they cannot get qualified teachers. Their job is

to make sure they get accredited as soon as possible and come up to

scratch in the classroom. Do you support the use of unqualified

teachers? I do. I have done it. If I could not get a maths, physics or

modern languages teacher and I thought somebody straight from

university, without qualified teachers start this, that they could

communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the

classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are

going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to

local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...

New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.

Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been

examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and

children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the

secretary of state and it is something I will talk more about

over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a

school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new

category, Her Majesty 's inspectors stay with that institution until it

improves. Sometimes we don't see a school for five or seven years. That

is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted should pay a much greater part in

monitoring the performance of schools between those inspections.

Are you enjoying it? It is a tough job. Are you enjoying it? This is a

tough job, but I enjoy it. Sometimes.

You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes,

Diane Abbott will be joining us. And we

Hello, I'm Martyn Oates. Coming up on the Sunday Politics in the South

West: The Government says half the dementia cases in the region aren't

being picked up by the NHS and the disease is relentlessly increasing.

I would walk around and try to ask to go home. I don't live here. I

don't recognise my wife. And for the next 20 minutes, I'm

joined by Ben Bradshaw, the Labour MP for Exeter, and Sarah Wollaston,

Conservative MP for Totnes. The story that's dominated headlines

everywhere this week is, of course, the death of the former South

African president and freedom fighter Nelson Mandela. I think you

tweeted, Ben, that you got into politics because of the apartheid. I

got involved in a letter writing campaign for Amnesty International

to the South African press calling for Northland Mandela's release. ``

Nelson Mandela. One of them was published in a South African

newspaper. I got a deluge of reaction saying, why are you

interfering? I got a taste of what political activism can achieve. Did

you get to meet him? I never met him 121. I remember his historic visit

to the Labour Party conference in 2000. For many people of our

generation, we got involved in politics because of the

anti`apartheid antiracism movement that he symbolised many of us never

thought he would you free to lead a free South Africa. He came to the

conference and got a choice reception. For many of us, he was an

inspiration `` eight to mulch was reception. I do not think you at key

nontribal politics, Sarah. He was a symbol of courage, dignity and

forgiveness. What he brought, to save South Africa from Civil War and

his extraordinary achievements and to have suffered as he did, 27 years

in prison, much of that and a half later `` much of that and a hard

labour. In his first speech out of prison, he talked about, let bygones

be bygones. One of Ben's Labour Party colleagues says you could not

see him barracking the opposition in the House of Commons. Absolutely.

Unifying. An extraordinary man. You also tweeted that you avoid PMQs. It

is horrible. It is a bearpit. I think he represents a different

culture. I heard Tony Blair say in an interview this week that without

him he does not think the Northern Ireland peace process would have

succeeded. He was a valuable source of advice and wisdom for Tony Blair

during that process. The consensus will dissolve pretty quickly, I

imagine. Tax breaks for small firms,

motorists and married couples were set out by the Chancellor in his

Autumn Statement this week. But George Osborne also confirmed plans

to raise the state retirement age and says the Government must carry

on taking difficult decisions. Tamsin Melville reports.

It wasn't exactly sunshine George Osborne delivered this week. I

cannot decide whether to invest it or spend it. Bloated. `` blow it. It

is an insult. At this Plymouth Age UK centre,

June, Una and Joyce aren't that impressed their state pension will

rise by nearly ?3 a week or that retirement ages are going up. It is

going to be really hard on some people, people who do a very

physical job. They do not have a clue. They do not have to worry

about the bills. I think this winter will be hard for a lot of people.

There were some small giveaways. Next year's fuel duty rise

cancelled. A tighter cap on rail fares. A tax break for married

couples. And a ?50 measure to cut energy bills. But the Chancellor

stuck to the austerity script. George Osborne says his plan is

working but there's more to be done. Labour says the Chancellor's in

denial about the nation's cost of living crisis. Here in Plymouth is

it Christmas cheer or winter gloom? There is always a blue Monday bust.

There will be better times ahead Which? boom and a bust. I do not

think the honest working person sees it in their back pocket at the

moment. It is not getting better. Inflation has gone up so your pay

packet does not reflect it. We are struggling. It might get better. See

what happens. Mr Osborne targeted help for

business on the high street and at the South West's many small

companies. I think it is positive. It will build on the growth we are

starting to see come through. The Chancellor's speech made it clear we

have a lot of hurdles to cross, a lot of pain. For small businesses,

positive messages coming through. But this Plymouth entrepeneur thinks

a cap on a business rates rise isn't enough. It will mean very little for

us. There is much more that could be done to help small businesses,

issues that are more pressing. Businesses reach a certain level and

they have to pay VAT and that level racing would help us hugely. And

helping businesses borrow money to expand. That is very difficult.

Meanwhile, with the economy on the up, the Chancellor says he's fixing

the roof while the sun is shining. Labour accusing you of smoke and

mirrors, Sarah. This was a tremendous Autumn Statement. This

weekend, small business Saturday. Premises being able to have ?1000

back on their rent. We are looking at measures to fill gaps on high

streets. I think there are some really important measures here to

get people back into employment, measures to encourage employment for

young people. The overall... This is just focusing on the best way out of

poverty to be employment. Employment is rising, unemployment is falling.

I think this is a tremendous encouragement. The Chancellor was

making the point that the Labour Party had made dire predictions that

public sector job cuts would not be replaced by the private sector. The

coalition came up with one prescription, you came up with

another. There's is being proven right. We have talked about this

before. People are working shorter hours for o there are more jobs in

the economy. Some are. The consequences of keeping people in

jobs, their pay is stagnant and in real terms pay has gone down. What

there was not in this statement was anything on the cost of living

crisis. As the people you interviewed showed, they are still

really hurting and they did not see anything in this that will help them

Aikens meet. Looking at the big picture, it is true, isn't it, to

say that in many ways you have changed the goalposts `` make ends

meet. Now you are saying that it is the wrong kind of recovery and the

wrong kinds of jobs. Remember what George Osborne predicted in 2010, he

predicted it would have grown by 7.7%. It has grown 2.5%. Less than a

third of the growth he predicted when he became Chancellor. That is

because his extreme austerity measures as we have discussed many

times killed off the growth he inherited. We would be in a much

better place if we had more growth. I am glad the economy is growing

now. But people are not feeling it except those at the top and he

failed to address it. That is a reasonable point. You cannot have

people thinking the Conservative Party are good at book`keeping and

good for business, but the average person is not feeling the benefit.

People are struggling. That is why measures such as the fuel duty

frees, we have not had any rises under this coalition. Particularly

in a place like Devon where people are so reliant on their cars... We

felt it was a very important way to try and help bring bills down. But

there is no doubt, it would not be fair not to acknowledge that people

are struggling. The cost of living will be an issue. We need to make

sure... The best way to lift people out of poverty is to help them to be

in jobs. That has been a great success story for the coalition. You

were rattled by the Labour Party's proposal to frees energy bills. I'd

do not feel it is realistic to expect people to believe you can

freeze international energy costs. You cannot do it. The profit`taking

from these companies is not as great a share of people's bills as they

have been led to believe. However, what we can address is taking many

of the fuel subsidies... Sorry, the renewable subsidies out of people's

hills and shifting them to general taxation. What was happening in

effect was we were getting a transfer from people who were

fuelled Porter fuel rates. `` fuel poor to fuel rich. Some people would

argue it is making fuel poverty worse. We have John Major saying

there should be a windfall tax on the energy companies. What George

Osborne did in this regard, the ?50 less of an increased and there would

have been, the impact of that will mean that jobs in the renewable

sector will be affected as a number of renewable energy companies... The

level of investment will be the same. People felt it was

transferring money from people who were poor to people who were not

fuel poor. It was important to acknowledge that we need to invest

in renewables. I believe that passionately. But we should not take

it directly out of people's bills. There is a real reduction in the

support for the insulation scheme which will be damaging. You are

delaying it. Overall, the point that there will be a crash on investment

in renewables, I would not accept it. But there will be a delay for

some people in getting access to insulation. Ed Balls this week, you

have basically decided to approach this by making further concessions

to the big six energy companies who have been told by Ofgem they should

be providing more for less. We need to bring in more companies so that

we have greater competition in the energy sector. That is very

important. One of the things that would happen as a result of an

artificial price fix, a promise that cannot really be delivered, is that

some of the smaller players, the people so important in bringing

prices down, they would go to the wall. Although it sounds great in

theory, all you get in practice with an artificial price freeze is you

get prices going up before and after and unfortunately you get less

investment in infrastructure. We could see blackouts. That is a

really significant problem for everybody. That is exactly the same

as what the energy company said in 1997 when we introduced the windfall

tax. There needs to be a separation in the energy markets between

generation and supply. I think there is a growing recognition that the

energy market is broken and needs fixing and I wish the government had

addressed this rather than letting the big six off scot`free. The

margin has narrowed. We are down to a few percentage points by 2015 in

the extra capacity we have. That is why an artificial price fix at this

point would risk the lights going out. Try not to call on your

specialist skills. `` time now. Leaders from around the World

converge on London next week for the G8 summit and this year the focus is

on dementia. The Government's using its presidency to push nations to

find new treatments and a cure. It follows the publication of a

dementia map by the Health Secretary which shows fewer than half of

people in Devon, Dorset and Somerset who suffer from dementia are being

identified by the NHS. Anna Varle reports.

Norman was only 50 when he was diagnosed with dementia. He was told

to expect to live for another ten to 12 years. I am in dead buying `` in

bed by 10pm. I walk around this flat and try to find a way out and asked

to go home. I want to go home all of the time. I don't recognise my wife.

He's been living with the disease for six years now. Initially he was

told he was too young to have dementia. But despite this, he says

he's one of the lucky ones because he was diagnosed early. But this

isn't the case for many. The Health Secretary has recently

published a dementia map. It shows less than half of people with the

disease are being diagnosed in Devon, Dorset and Somerset. North,

East and West Devon have the worst diagnosis rates in the region at

42.7% with Cornwall coming out on top with just over 50%. But The NHS

says a lot of progress has been made. Referrals to memory clinics

are up four fold, waiting times have been reduced and after care has been

improved. We have dementia adviser services that are commissioned by

local authorities to provide support, information and care for

people from the point of diagnosis through to end of life. Next week

the UK will lead the global fight against the disease by bringing G8

countries together to help find treatments and a cure.

You are a former Health Minister and a former GP. The diagnosis rates are

shockingly low. The point is they have always been shockingly low.

Since this government made it a real priority, the situation has

improved. What these maps give us now is a useful baseline. We would

like to see this improve further. Unless you start measuring things,

they are much easier to ignore. I think this is a step in the right

direction. I do not think people should feel too despondent. It is an

improving situation. We need to focus on individuals and carers and

I hope in the care bill we will see further improvements for carers will

stop that will be coming before Parliament in the next few weeks. In

addition, we need to focus on research and treatment for the

future. Ben, when you were in the Department of Health, was this an

issue on your radar was back yes, dementia was the coming thing. We

published the first`ever strategy and I am glad it has been picked up

by discouragement. My own interest in this, my mother died 59 of

early`onset Alzheimer's and I was a teenage carers are her `` for her.

There was no support them. There is now. I can understand why some

people may be terrified of getting a diagnosis, but in terms of the care

and support available and being able to plan and understand what is

happening and get help and therapy, it is so important in terms of the

quality of people's lives. It is good the numbers are going up. They

need to go up further. In Devon, this week we launched a new memory

service for Devon which will bring things together better and ensure

people get early diagnosis and support. I don't know whether there

are any parallels with diabetes. Diabetes campaigners are saying that

it ruins peoples lives and costs the NHS a lot of money because it is not

diagnosed early enough. And there were different types of dementia.

People think of Alzheimer's but there are other types linked to

vascular disease. And other forms of lifestyle advice that can make a

real difference. People drinking too much, that is an important cause.

Having a proper diagnosis and access to treatments that can delay some of

the symptoms of the disease, I think that is a very important thing. You

need to have a correct diagnosis. More than that, it is for those

around you, putting in place the kind of support networks that they

might need going forward. Now our regular round`up of the

political week in the South West in 60 Seconds.

The Marine convicted of murdering an Afghan insurgent is finally and

controversially named. It is all very well sitting there with the

benefit of hindsight, but do they really understand the pressures our

men have to endure? Particularly the Royal Marine commandos. NPP as a

farmer should not lose too much of their subsidies to environmental

schemes `` NPs say that farmers. You have to get the money to the

livestock producers. And could farmers lose vital manpower when the

government scraps the scheme for migrant workers? It is

short`sighted. It worked well for us. In two of three times, we will

be back to where we were ten years ago. We were screaming we could not

get enough labour to do horticultural pipe jobs. And an

Exeter `based airline announces more cuts. Last time it was jobs, this

time it is flights. That's the Sunday Politics in the

South West. I noticed you nodding vigorously when the farmer was

talking about seasonal workers, Ben. It is not the case that there are

British workers lining up to get the jobs. The debate in this country on

immigration is wholly dishonest. Many sectors in our part of the

world, farming, processing, picking the daffodils in Cornwall, they

would not be able to function without migrant workers. The

producers are reliant on them and when the scheme stops they will be

in real trouble. As Ben says, what we have to remember is that migrants

are very put into our economy. But what we want is for British workers

to be applying for those jobs. There is an argument that says that if you

make it too easy to employ people from elsewhere, we are hearing

stories about employers actively advertising elsewhere and not

advertising in the UK. We want them to encourage local people to apply

for the jobs. Is that a reasonable point? Absolutely. But as your food

producer said, there are times and are coming when there are labour

shortages and let us be frank, quite a lot of local people are not

prepared to do the hard graft and grubby work and put in the hours.

They are interested in easier jobs, better paid. If we do not want these

sectors to suffer, we have to think carefully about locking the door to

these people who are keeping these sectors very important to the

south`west economy ticking over. It seems this scheme is disappearing by

default. Countries which currently benefit from it getting the broader

benefits of EU membership. The farmers are saying, couldn't we

extend it to other countries outside the EU to fill the gap? I think we

still have to focus on trying to encourage young people in our

country to take these jobs and make sure that employers advertise

actively at home rather than abroad. A huge row over the naming of this

Marine who was convicted of murdering the Afghan insurgent. A

former Marine feels very strongly that civilians do not understand the

pressures people are under. There should be special circumstances

here. He should have remained anonymous. I am very reluctant to

second`guess a decision a court has been made when I have not sat

through the evidence. I was not the judge or the jury. I think it is

concomitant on all of us to be slightly careful about how we

comment. We all think the Armed Forces do an amazing job and put

their lives at risk all of the time. But if you will forgive me, I will

not, on a court case which I have not sat in on and pretend to know

more about it than the judge did. I cannot add to that. It is absolutely

right that there are things about this case and looking at the footage

from the headcount, I think that was deeply shocking footage `` the head

camera. I think it protects other soldiers so they do not find

themselves in a position where they are pressured to do things that are

unacceptable. There is more to this than we know and we should leave it

to the courts to make the judgement. This row about whether farmers

should lose money to environmental schemes. I was slightly puzzled

because as I understand it, this has been a long`term shift in subsidy

from food production to more environmental schemes to encourage

diversity and biodiversity, so it is still often farmers benefiting. I

think the DEFRA select committee are saying the move should be slower.

work... That's all we've got time for. It's back now to Andrew.

Tomorrow, the House of Commons will pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela.

Our nation has lost its greatest son. Our people have lost a father.

The first thing I ever did that involved an issue or policy, or

politics, was protest against apartheid.

I think his greatest legacy, to South Africa and to the world, is

the emphasis which he has always put on the need for a conciliation, on

the importance of human rights. He also made us understand that we can

change the world. We can change the world by changing attitudes, by

changing perceptions. For this reason, I would like to pay him

tribute as a great human being, who raised the standard of humanity.

Thank you for the gift of Madiba. Thank you for what he has enabled us

to know we can become. We are joined now by the Labour MP

Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not one after he was released from

prison in 1990. He went as an election observer for the first one

person, one-vote in South Africa. I would guess, of all the people you

met in your life, you must have been the most impressive and biggest

influence? He was extraordinary. He had just come out of prison, 28

years in reason. He had seen a lot of his colleagues tortured, blown up

and killed. He was entirely without bitterness. That is what came

across. That was key to his achievement, to achieve a peaceful

transition. Everybody thought that if you have black majority rule, you

might have a bloodbath. It's down to Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I

remember FW de Klerk saying that Mandela was the key to getting a

peaceful transition. Absolutely the key, an amazing man. London was one

of the centres, people talked about it as being the other centre of the

anti-apartheid struggle. That anti-apartheid struggle in London,

it had an effect on black politics in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were

black and politically active at the time, the apartheid struggle, the

struggle against white supremacy in South Africa, was very important.

Whatever your colour, the anti-apartheid struggle, for our

generation, was the political campaign. We have the 50th

anniversary of Kennedy's assassination. Mr Mandela's death.

We are kind of running out of people that inspired us? I will never

forget where I was when I saw him come out of prison, hand-in-hand

with the women, I might add. If you have spent your whole teenage years

and 20 is boycotting, marching, picketing, to see him actually come

out was amazing. Do you think it was more exciting to meet you or the

Spice Girls? I think the Spice Girls. What did the Labour

backbenchers think about Ed Balls's performance after the Autumn

Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a brilliant man, but I think even he

would say that it was not his best performance. But if you look at the

polls, the public liked the points he made. The backbenchers were

quiet, there was something wrong? I noticed that. It was like a wall of

sound, deliberately. They know that under pressure his stamina might

come back and it is difficult for him. That is what they were trying

to incite. I have had experience first hand, a look at all of these

anonymous and sometimes not anonymous quotes in the media. The

spinning has begun against him? This is the party of brotherly love, no

matter what the Tories say, we can say worse about each other. How

could it be that two former aides to Gordon Brown do not like each other?

Far be it from me to say. If he wanted to do it, and I'm not saying

he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I

mean, he got rid of you, he got rid of his brother? One thing you should

not do is under estimate Ed Miliband's capacity for

ruthlessness. If he feels it is the right thing to do, he will do it.

It's not just a matter of... Ed Balls is a big, powerful

personality. He's great to interview because he is across his subject,

you can have a really good argument with him, a man that knows his

brief, his facts. But it's not just about the personality. There is a

kind of sense that Labour needs to look forwards more on economic

policy. Of course, the standard of living has been hugely successful

for Labour. But it needs more than that on economic policy? I think he

has been one of the most effective member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's

always associated with the Brown years, where there is always an

element about, you were the guys that got it wrong. I think Ed

Miliband will be very tempted to replace him with Alistair Darling.

The scenario goes like this, Alistair Darling saves the union and

then in September he saves the Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't

think he would do it. Talk about shifting tectonic plates, it would,

wouldn't it? But it is a step too far. Ed Balls would not be too

happy. It is not something you would want to do lightly. That sounds a

bit of a threat. Not from you. I can't see Ed Balls magnanimously

retreating and say, go on, Alistair Darling, take the job I have been

after all career. Where do you put him? Do you make him a middle

ranking business or welfare secretary? He wouldn't do that. If

you sack him, he would retreat to the backbenchers. He might take up

knitting and practices piano scales, or he might have a blood feud with

Ed Miliband. I don't know which could be. You look back to when he

was schools Secretary, you could feel he was constantly fuming. I

think he is better inside the tent, looking out, than the other way

around. The thing one Labour strategist said to me was that he is

too much looking into the rear-view mirror, when it comes to economic

policy. He needs to look ahead through the windscreen. That had

some resonance? He was at the centre of Labour's economic policy-making

from the mid-90s. So it's hard for him but he has to look forward.

There is an interesting comparison with 2009. Gordon Brown got in

trouble when he said the choice is between Labour investment and Tory

cuts. Everybody knew it was between Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other

words, he was not acknowledging reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can

say it is the wrong sort of recovery, but there is a recovery.

Does he not need to absorb that punch and say there is a recovery,

then people will listen to him? Possibly. We know that the

macroeconomics are looking better. We also know people are not

experiencing it as a recovery in living standards. No one, not even

Tories, really believe that David Cameron knows what it is like for

middle-income people to live normal lives. Living standards is

particularly powerful because of the composition of the government? Don't

go away. This time last year we ambushed our political panel with a

quiz. They didn't come out of it smelling of roses, but they did come

out rather smelly. Will the coalition still be in place

a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I say definitely as well. From now,

one year, will we know the date of the European referendum? Yes. No. I

say no as well. How much growth will there be? Less than 1%. Father

Christmas is less qualified than me, but I will go for one. I will go for

a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a third of that. I am with you, and

1%. We didn't do too badly. What will growth be next year? I will

remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got

it wrong last year. Well, they went down in March and then went back in

December. I'm going to go under and claim credit where it's higher. I'm

going to say 1%. Deliberately get it wrong. Given our record, if we say

there is going to be spectacular growth, does it mean we're going to

go into recession? There is incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%,

because the housing market in London is rocketing. It would be closer to

3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this

time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes, I value my life. Will UKIP mean the

European elections, by which I mean have the highest percentage of the

vote? Yes. Second behind Labour. Second behind Labour. Will Alex

Salmond win the independence referendum? No, but it will be

closer than we think. No, unless they do something catastrophic like

let Cameron debate him. Too close to call. Controversial. How many

Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than

anyone thinks. The entire population of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel

Farage thanks. I'll go with that, I'm confident. A change of tone for

your magazine. Not many will come, but a lot here already will

normalise and be counted into figures. Too many for most

right-wing commentators. I think quite a few will come, but not the

kind of numbers that made such a huge difference. This time,

everybody is open. They do like to speak English, that is the reason

they want to come. We'll all three of you still be here by this time

next year? Yes. Would you recommend that? Yes, keep them. And he has

lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If you can keep affording me, I will be

here. I hope so, it sounds like you have a firing squad outside. I hope

so, maybe you will find some true talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they?

Let me put this to you, I think you will agree. The coalition will not

break now, this side of the election next year? There will not be... They

will not go their own ways by this time next year? Of next year, maybe

just after. Early 2015. This side of the election? What is the UKIP view?

I don't think there is an advantage to either of them. If the Lib Dems

pulled out, they would look like there were a lodger in the Tory

house of government. I think it would suit the Lib Dems to break

just before the election. I think that is what Vince Cable wants to

do. I don't think it is what Nick Clegg would like to do. The Tories

would love it. They would have all of the toys to themselves. Yellow

marker they would look like the grown-ups. The problem for Vince

Cable is that he's not the force that used to be after his temper

tantrum at the Conference. I will be back with the Daily

Politics next week. If Santer gives you a diary in your stocking, pencil

in Sunday the 20th of January, the first Sunday Politics of 2014.

Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is

Christmas. And New Year.