18/05/2014 Sunday Politics South West


18/05/2014

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Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

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election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

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on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

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on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

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are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

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difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

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an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

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campaign trail, he has been asking all the big

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campaign trail, he has been asking A special European election debate.

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I will be this week, a last look at the euro

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elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's

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32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got

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all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it

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is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local

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elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are

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the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some

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say that these European and local elections will not be much of a

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pointer to how the big one goes But pointer to how the big one goes. But

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that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from

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examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is

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local elections and European Parliament elections.

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These local results should be known by Friday. In the European

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elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected

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across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But

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the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has

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closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are

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in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the

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outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still

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wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is

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difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll

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which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and

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another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more

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slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know,

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but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months

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ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the

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Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's

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share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment,

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and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results,

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whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be

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Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down

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from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one

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year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a

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significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be

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worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all

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have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are

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saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is

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Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly

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resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and

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incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one,

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but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done,

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to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland,

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Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which

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makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but

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whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent

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event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the

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Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a

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national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly

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historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across

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Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. --

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populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely

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ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general

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election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but

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they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works

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fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four...

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We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP.

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She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an

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earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what

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does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I

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think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been

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around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European

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elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are

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looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 2015,

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getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes

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on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense

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policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want

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to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election. If

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we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim.

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You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the

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stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and

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members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least, I

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would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You

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could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around

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for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you

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had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17

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Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either

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arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition

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we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist

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sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of

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that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I

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certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who

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have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even

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putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions

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or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the

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BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any

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other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something

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loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party.

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We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of

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expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage,

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who is a fantastic, charismatic leader. But believe me, there is a

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huge amount of talent. When we get our MEPs into power after the

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European elections, we will see many more of them I think on television

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and radio and in the newspapers. more of them I think on television

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and radio and in the newspapers We are not a one-man band. Who runs

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your party? The party is run by Nigel Farage, our leader. But he

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spends all his time running between television studios and in and out of

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the pub! You would be amazed how much he does, and of course we have

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a National Executive Committee, like the other parties. So who runs it?

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The National Executive Committee, in conjunction with Nigel Farage, the

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MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a joint effort. Your Local Government

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Minister Stosur is, if you vote UKIP, you go on to pledge that your

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councillors will not toe the party line, how does that work? -- your

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local government manifesto says... On the main policies, they will toe

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the party line, because that is obviously what people will be voting

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for. It is no good putting forward a manifesto like the Lib Dems did on

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2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive --

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2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive - a

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lot of policies at local government level, and those we will stick to.

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But when it comes to individual, But when it comes to individual

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local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a

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school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best

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interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any

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party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.

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People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their

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party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote

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to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a

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road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road

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map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.

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Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but

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there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There

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is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that

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detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.

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We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong

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position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade

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deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What

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would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for

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back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade

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agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the

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European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975

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involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do

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not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply

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concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew,

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concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew it

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would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it sounds like you are complaining that

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we might have something which is better than 1975. I am just trying

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to find out what it is! That sounds like positive to me. We will

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negotiate a trade deal and all manner of issues, whatever is best

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for the British people. We want our sovereignty back, we want our

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country back. Would you be upset if a bunch of Rumanian men moved in

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next door to you? Where I live, I am surrounded by one and two-bedroom

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flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in next door to me, I would want to ask

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questions. That is very different from say a Robinho family moving in

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next door. I would think, are they being ripped off, are they up to no

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good or are they perhaps being trafficked by a gang master? So I

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think it would be of concern, and I do not think there is anything wrong

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with that, it is a humanitarian approach. That would be different

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from a family moving in who were learning to speak English, who

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wanted to contribute to the British economy. Maybe if your boss is

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watching, he will now have found out how to answer that question.

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Now, what is more glamorous, 24 hours in the life of a

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counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours in the life of Adam Fleming, on the

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campaign trail? I will let you make up your own mind. So, it is eight

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o'clock in the morning here in Westminster. Today's challenge is,

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how much campaigning for the local and European elections can we fit

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into 12 hours? See you back here at eight o'clock tonight. Wish me

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luck. With my cameraman and producer, we went to Thurrock in

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Essex first. I got a very, very warm welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They

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have never had this much attention. One candidate's misdemeanour ends up

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on the front page. But you have got Lib Dem candidates being convicted

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of racially aggravated assault, and that was not on the front pages of

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the newspapers. Houdini is fine but it must be applied evenly. Have you

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had to sack Thurrock UKIP members for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh,

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God, no. Next we head to meet a top Tory in a different area. We are

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heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in traffic. We are going to miss

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William Hague. We got there, just in time, to ask the really big

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questions. David Cameron went to Nando De Colo last week, where are

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you going to go for lunch? I do not even get time for lunch. I think

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something in the back of the car. We will go down the street and see what

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people have got to say. Even the Foreign Secretary has depressed the

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flesh at election time? Even the Foreign Secretary meets real people.

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The message William Hague impresses upon everyone he meets is that the

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Tories are the only party offering a referendum on our membership of the

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EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. I've got five minutes by the beach.

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This is the best thing about elections, lunch. Do you want one?

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This is the best thing about And chips are weirdly relevant at

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our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which

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our next stop - the Green Party about this vehicle? It runs from

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chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was

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boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just

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hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft

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their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who

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live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed

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Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls

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lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who

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is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're

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flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right

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place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning

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as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said

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the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If

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he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not

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forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40

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minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for

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something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home

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for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy

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elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack

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Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens

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used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went

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wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs

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and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these

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elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party

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calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making

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poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have

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made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the

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left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative

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vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I

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met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane

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exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond

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issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned

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about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the

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Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price

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bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the

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same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline

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greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs

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and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our

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economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has

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sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one

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planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by

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renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on

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days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It

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is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a

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smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to

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supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to

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work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and

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we are losing opportunities. 50% of we are losing opportunities. 50 of

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German renewable electricity is owned by communities and it stays

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within communities, rather than the big six energy companies. So you

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have still got to take the French nuclear power. What we need to

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do... Nuclear is a dead technology, going down in the developed world.

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At the moment the Government proposes the most expensive proposal

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for Britain and yet the last two plans took 17 years to bring online,

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way too slow for what we need now. We know what the Green council would

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be like if you were to win more seats on Thursday because you run

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Brighton. Your own Green MP joined strikers against the council, the

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local Greens are at each other's throats, a council ridden with

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factionalism, attempts to raise council tax to 5%, attempted coups

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against the local Green leader by other Greens and you have had to

:22:09.:22:13.

bring in mediators. If you look at the life of people in Brighton and

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Hove, it has seen its visitor numbers go up by 50,000, it has

:22:19.:22:23.

become the top seaside resort in Britain, we have seen GCSE results

:22:24.:22:30.

going up significantly. These are the things affecting people's lives

:22:31.:22:36.

in Brighton and Hove. 60% of Brighton and Hove people think life

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is better and the Greens. We have a debate to be had from next year's

:22:43.:22:47.

election and perhaps we can have that debate next year. But you hold

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up Brighton as the way the city should be run? We have made huge

:22:53.:22:57.

progress, we have found money to be brought into the city to improve

:22:58.:23:05.

Green spaces. I was on the big ride in London yesterday, and we need to

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change our roads so they worked the people as well as cars. Which side

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of the picket line were you on in Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was

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in London, travelling around as I do most days. From Penzance to

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Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you.

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Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you I'm

:23:34.:23:33.

Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,

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the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a

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European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and

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only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

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the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP

:24:28.:24:34.

party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions

:24:35.:24:39.

usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on

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to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it

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suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well

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either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation

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has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will

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not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to

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hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come

:25:10.:25:15.

out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we

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want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child

:25:20.:25:24.

tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but

:25:25.:25:30.

Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to

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halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to

:25:38.:25:41.

the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done

:25:42.:25:45.

to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in

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the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be

:25:57.:26:01.

lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never

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knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support

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because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit

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like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now

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we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make

:26:29.:26:33.

together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that

:26:34.:26:38.

only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been

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shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out

:26:49.:26:53.

of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the

:26:54.:27:03.

jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives

:27:04.:27:07.

comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't

:27:08.:27:12.

really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been

:27:13.:27:18.

there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite

:27:19.:27:22.

being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on

:27:23.:27:26.

Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we

:27:27.:27:31.

wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal

:27:32.:27:35.

Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.

:27:36.:27:40.

But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have

:27:41.:27:49.

taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We

:27:50.:27:56.

are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our

:27:57.:28:00.

relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why

:28:01.:28:10.

has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your

:28:11.:28:13.

own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we

:28:14.:28:19.

have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will

:28:20.:28:24.

decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is

:28:25.:28:29.

that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon

:28:30.:28:37.

and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband

:28:38.:28:47.

said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy

:28:48.:28:56.

prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower

:28:57.:29:05.

than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general

:29:06.:29:09.

election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this

:29:10.:29:14.

question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David

:29:15.:29:17.

Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in

:29:18.:29:23.

the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties

:29:24.:29:27.

that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who

:29:28.:29:33.

say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has

:29:34.:29:38.

given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing

:29:39.:29:44.

something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader

:29:45.:29:48.

bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of

:29:49.:29:58.

the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who

:29:59.:30:02.

think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak

:30:03.:30:07.

to people about it, people understand that we are better in

:30:08.:30:11.

them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs

:30:12.:30:15.

Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have

:30:16.:30:19.

battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to

:30:20.:30:24.

take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been

:30:25.:30:28.

delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.

:30:29.:30:35.

-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,

:30:36.:30:40.

people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's

:30:41.:30:46.

antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable

:30:47.:30:49.

housing they need. We as a government have delivered more

:30:50.:30:54.

affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties

:30:55.:30:57.

earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out

:30:58.:31:09.

that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in

:31:10.:31:15.

2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly

:31:16.:31:18.

half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher

:31:19.:31:24.

or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions

:31:25.:31:29.

of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I

:31:30.:31:37.

would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the

:31:38.:31:41.

deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now

:31:42.:31:45.

have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people

:31:46.:31:50.

employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say

:31:51.:31:53.

that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We

:31:54.:31:58.

need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.

:31:59.:32:02.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are

:32:03.:32:06.

the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any

:32:07.:32:14.

change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think

:32:15.:32:20.

like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree

:32:21.:32:23.

with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply

:32:24.:32:29.

would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the

:32:30.:32:33.

workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now

:32:34.:32:38.

privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the

:32:39.:32:43.

coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level

:32:44.:32:46.

since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got

:32:47.:32:51.

a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies

:32:52.:32:55.

which directly address the problems which people face. I think the

:32:56.:33:01.

public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for

:33:02.:33:04.

the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum We

:33:05.:33:07.

to be in favour of a referendum? We are in favour, we voted for one we

:33:08.:33:09.

are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next

:33:10.:33:13.

time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the

:33:14.:33:17.

relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.

:33:18.:33:24.

We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.

:33:25.:33:30.

We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying

:33:31.:33:36.

in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall

:33:37.:33:39.

transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for

:33:40.:33:49.

this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to

:33:50.:33:55.

leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but

:33:56.:33:58.

partners with the Conservatives but we do not want to be distracted at

:33:59.:34:02.

the moment by a referendum in the future in relation to Europe.

:34:03.:34:05.

Because what we have done is built our own economy back. That has been

:34:06.:34:13.

the priority. We do not want artificial priorities. The Tories

:34:14.:34:16.

want an artificial date plucked out of the air for their own advantage.

:34:17.:34:21.

We say, let's get on with being positive about being in Europe, and

:34:22.:34:24.

many people on the doorstep absolutely understand that.

:34:25.:34:28.

Yesterday, the Energy Minister said that he thought the party would be

:34:29.:34:33.

willing to campaign for a British withdrawal from the EU if there was

:34:34.:34:39.

not a successful negotiation, a successful repatriation, do you

:34:40.:34:45.

agree with that? First of all, I am very optimistic... I got that I am

:34:46.:34:56.

going into these negotiations with confidence but Michael Fallon is one

:34:57.:34:59.

of your ministerial colleagues, he said that if we cannot get a deal on

:35:00.:35:04.

substantial repatriation, then the party should be willing to campaign

:35:05.:35:08.

for a British withdrawal - do you agree? My view is that I am

:35:09.:35:13.

confident we will get a deal, and then we will put it to the British

:35:14.:35:17.

people. But you will have to take a line. If you do not get substantial

:35:18.:35:21.

repatriations, will you side with Michael Fallon all with the Prime

:35:22.:35:24.

Minister, who seems to want to stay in regardless? I may only have been

:35:25.:35:30.

in politics for four years, but I am not going to ask that kind of

:35:31.:35:33.

hypothetical question. Every question I ask is hypothetical, that

:35:34.:35:40.

is the fascination of the programme! I go into these negotiations with

:35:41.:35:43.

complete confidence. If you look at our track record, it suggests we

:35:44.:35:50.

will be successful. Hilary Benn what is the difference between your

:35:51.:35:54.

attitude and that of the Lib Dems towards a referendum? We have been

:35:55.:36:00.

very clear that if it is proposed at sometime in the future, further

:36:01.:36:05.

powers would be transferred, then, we would put that to the British

:36:06.:36:09.

people in a referendum. That is the Lib Dem position. This is our

:36:10.:36:14.

position, which I am planing to you. It would be an in-out referendum. We

:36:15.:36:19.

would only agree to a transfer of powers if we thought that it was in

:36:20.:36:25.

the interest of Britain. But we believe that Britain's place remains

:36:26.:36:27.

and should remain in Europe, for economic reasons. But we also want

:36:28.:36:35.

to see some changes in our relationship with Europe, and

:36:36.:36:41.

electing Labour MEPs on Thursday will be a way of boosting that

:36:42.:36:48.

argument. In what way is everything you have just said not entirely sell

:36:49.:36:52.

my must with the Lib Dem position? I am not worried about that. --

:36:53.:37:00.

entirely synonymous. It is the dividing line between us and UKIP,

:37:01.:37:03.

because they somehow believe that Britain leaving the European Union

:37:04.:37:07.

would be good for our economy. Truth is, it would be really bad, because

:37:08.:37:13.

so many jobs depend on being part of a large market in an increasingly

:37:14.:37:24.

globalised world. I have got one more question for you on the locals.

:37:25.:37:28.

We seem to have lost our connection with Leeds. What is the single most

:37:29.:37:32.

important reason that people should vote for you in the local election?

:37:33.:37:36.

Because taxpayers' money is just that, it does not belong to the

:37:37.:37:41.

politicians, and we can do a lot more and get more for less with

:37:42.:37:45.

taxpayers money. If you look at Conservative councils up and down

:37:46.:37:48.

the country, most of them have not been raising council tax, they have

:37:49.:37:51.

been getting more for less, and that is what people deserve. We will

:37:52.:37:56.

produce the maximum amount possible of affordable housing to meet the

:37:57.:38:00.

housing needs of Britain, instead of the richest minority having flats

:38:01.:38:03.

and houses that nobody can afford. We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I

:38:04.:38:14.

can answer for him. I will do it - he would certainly say, vote Labour.

:38:15.:38:17.

You are watching The Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:18.:38:23.

`` welcome to a special European Sunday Politics Scotland.

:38:24.:38:55.

`` welcome to a special European election edition. We will be

:38:56.:39:00.

from four of the candidates standing in the poll. Cornwall is as poor now

:39:01.:39:03.

as it was what first attracted the highest level European fundhng over

:39:04.:39:13.

a decade ago. Since the decline of the traditional

:39:14.:39:17.

industries, the economy has struggled, and despite around ?

:39:18.:39:24.

million since the 90s, it rdmains the poorest region in the UK. This

:39:25.:39:27.

building is partly funded by European Monday `` money. Ldt's go

:39:28.:39:34.

in and find out what people here think the European Union has done

:39:35.:39:36.

for Cornwall. The European Tnion think the European Union has done

:39:37.:39:40.

for Cornwall. The European Union has been good for Cornwall, it was

:39:41.:39:45.

unanimous, and it has been crucial to staying local. I'd doubt very

:39:46.:39:48.

much if we would have studidd to staying local. I'd doubt very

:39:49.:39:50.

much if we would have studied `` I doubt very much we would have had

:39:51.:39:53.

anywhere near the success. Think we would have had to move to London or

:39:54.:39:59.

another part of Europe. The stamp of European Union aid is a familiar

:40:00.:40:04.

sight across Cornwall. The Eden Project, superfast broadband, but

:40:05.:40:08.

with the county still unable Project, superfast broadband, but

:40:09.:40:09.

with the county still unabld to Project, superfast broadband, but

:40:10.:40:10.

with the county still unable to go it alone, some ask if the h`nd`outs

:40:11.:40:14.

are really working. At the start of the investment programme in 199 ,

:40:15.:40:19.

the economic performance of Cornwall was measured at 66% of the European

:40:20.:40:21.

was measured at 66% of the Duropean average. In 2011, it was at 64%.

:40:22.:40:25.

average. In 2011, it was at 64% Here, where there is some of the

:40:26.:40:29.

highest information levels hn Cornwall, the benefit of the

:40:30.:40:31.

Cornwall, the benefit of thd millions is parlous `` is far less

:40:32.:40:36.

millions is parlous `` is f`r less positive. We do not get superfast

:40:37.:40:39.

positive. We do not get supdrfast broadband down our way. A way

:40:40.:40:42.

positive. We do not get superfast broadband down our way. A w`y to

:40:43.:40:43.

broadband down our way. A way to improve Cornwall is more jobs. It is

:40:44.:40:50.

hoped the next funding round of ?500 million will build on investment

:40:51.:40:54.

ready made to create more jobs, and both sides of the in or out debate

:40:55.:40:57.

are also hoping this will bd the are also hoping this will bd the

:40:58.:41:00.

last slice of European aid that has to come Cornwall's way.

:41:01.:41:06.

With me to discuss this further our four candidates hoping for your vote

:41:07.:41:07.

on Thursday. Julia Reed frol the four candidates hoping for xour vote

:41:08.:41:14.

on Thursday. Julia Reed from the UK on Thursday. Julia Reed from the UK

:41:15.:41:15.

Independence Party, James Krakouer from the Conservatives, and Clare

:41:16.:41:22.

Moody from Labour. The Lib Dems are seen as the most European

:41:23.:41:27.

enthusiastic Hardy. We are now to the third charge of top`levdl

:41:28.:41:33.

European funding. You have to ask yourself, what would have happened

:41:34.:41:36.

to Cornwall had that money not been coming from the European Unhon? Not

:41:37.:41:42.

much has changed. It has. I've visited some businesses in Cornwall

:41:43.:41:47.

and have been hugely impressed by their dynamism. Cornwall is on the

:41:48.:41:50.

verge of taking off, partictlarly their dynamism. Cornwall is on the

:41:51.:41:53.

verge of taking off, particularly in verge of taking off, particularly in

:41:54.:41:54.

Green technologies. In an arm as amount of money has gone into the

:41:55.:41:58.

combined universities of Cornwall. That is paying dividends in returns

:41:59.:42:05.

from student to pay fees and of course the staff are also well

:42:06.:42:06.

from student to pay fees and of course the staff are also wdll paid.

:42:07.:42:08.

You are basically saying that course the staff are also well paid.

:42:09.:42:10.

You are basically saying th`t none You are basically saying that none

:42:11.:42:12.

of this money would have happened if UK Independence Party had pulled

:42:13.:42:14.

of this money would have happened if UK Independence Party had ptlled us

:42:15.:42:15.

UK Independence Party had pulled us out of Europe. So there is `

:42:16.:42:16.

UK Independence Party had ptlled us out of Europe. So there is a big

:42:17.:42:16.

dividend from this. If we h`d out of Europe. So there is ` big

:42:17.:42:18.

dividend from this. If we h`d not gone into the common market, we

:42:19.:42:23.

would still have maintained control over our fishing limits, and UK

:42:24.:42:33.

water has 60% of fish stocks and that has brought in a lot of money

:42:34.:42:37.

into Cornwall, and although Cornwall debts development money, it is

:42:38.:42:43.

matched funding, and we do not actually get a say in where that

:42:44.:42:47.

goes. It is difficult to criticise things like high`speed broadband, or

:42:48.:42:52.

the Eden project, the University for Cornwall. But for each pound that's

:42:53.:42:58.

Cornwall gets, it has actually cost the UK government over ?2. If

:42:59.:43:03.

Cornwall gets, it has actually cost the UK government over ?2. Hf we

:43:04.:43:06.

were not paying that extra tom of the government could have put that

:43:07.:43:14.

money straight into Cornwall, `` the extra money. The economy would be

:43:15.:43:20.

far better if its connections with London were quicker than thdy

:43:21.:43:23.

far better if its connections with London were quicker than they are

:43:24.:43:23.

far better if its connections with London were quicker than thdy are at

:43:24.:43:26.

the moment. Later presided over the first and second tranche of funding

:43:27.:43:29.

in Cornwall. Would it have been better if we had invested

:43:30.:43:35.

domestically? I have seen it since 2010 what would have happendd if we

:43:36.:43:36.

2010 what would have happened if we had not have the European money in

:43:37.:43:40.

Cornwall. We saw this after the storm damage, the impact of Cornwall

:43:41.:43:46.

`` in Cornwall of that storl damage, and the councils still do not know

:43:47.:43:49.

where they are going to get the funding, whether they are going to

:43:50.:43:53.

get the funding, to repair that storm damage. What we have seen in

:43:54.:43:56.

Cornwall is that it is lagging behind in its figures and the rest

:43:57.:44:01.

of the country, and in the to thousands, once Gross got going

:44:02.:44:08.

again, once he got the fundhng through... Your government in

:44:09.:44:12.

through... Your government hn Westminster at the time could have

:44:13.:44:14.

made this decision. They did make the decision to make sure that

:44:15.:44:17.

Cornwall got the money. Clearly Cornwall got the money. Clearly

:44:18.:44:22.

there is the match funding. But I repeat the point that, actu`lly

:44:23.:44:28.

Cornwall gets left behind in Westminster decisions, and we have

:44:29.:44:29.

seen that with the storm damage, seen that with the storm damage,

:44:30.:44:33.

with the cutting funding from infrastructure projects likd

:44:34.:44:35.

with the cutting funding from infrastructure projects like the

:44:36.:44:35.

infrastructure projects likd the link Road further west in Cornwall.

:44:36.:44:38.

I'd know one of your fellow candidates takes the view that it

:44:39.:44:41.

would be better if we made all of would be better if we made `ll of

:44:42.:44:45.

these decisions about funding in Britain, but Claire makes a good

:44:46.:44:54.

point, doesn't she? It is an interesting point. Go back to

:44:55.:44:57.

fisheries. The common fisheries policy controls 50% of the water

:44:58.:45:02.

controls and we now have 10$, and it controls and we now have 10$, and it

:45:03.:45:08.

is a big campaign policy of UKIP, but they abstained on this policy.

:45:09.:45:15.

When it comes to regional ftnding, it has been hugely successful,

:45:16.:45:17.

it has been hugely successftl, especially the amount that has gone

:45:18.:45:19.

in and the smaller scale, like especially the amount that has gone

:45:20.:45:23.

in and the smaller scale, lhke a in and the smaller scale, lhke a

:45:24.:45:23.

road that was funded by EU money, road that was funded by EU loney,

:45:24.:45:33.

and there are some good projects. Idling small`business red tape, but

:45:34.:45:36.

Idling small`business red t`pe, but the regional development fund, which

:45:37.:45:41.

put into a road network that is put into a road network that is

:45:42.:45:46.

vastly underused, so the ond advantage of lessons to giving

:45:47.:45:47.

vastly underused, so the one advantage of lessons to givhng money

:45:48.:45:48.

advantage of lessons to giving money is that it would be controlling

:45:49.:45:52.

directly where it goes, if ht goes to fishing projects `` efficient

:45:53.:45:59.

projects. The point about the road, Westminster funding from that

:46:00.:46:00.

projects. The point about the road, Westminster funding from th`t has

:46:01.:46:03.

been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You can

:46:04.:46:07.

been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You c`n go

:46:08.:46:07.

been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You can go to

:46:08.:46:10.

the next topic that we are going to discuss, immigration, which is going

:46:11.:46:14.

to be about transitional controls. We need to move towards that. But

:46:15.:46:20.

before that, I would like to speak to the lead candidate `` I spoke to

:46:21.:46:23.

the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It is

:46:24.:46:24.

the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It hs a

:46:25.:46:25.

the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It is a bit

:46:26.:46:30.

of a mistake. A lot of what we get from Europe is priceless, and one of

:46:31.:46:33.

the most priceless thing to get is the piece that Europe is guaranteed,

:46:34.:46:34.

the piece that Europe is gu`ranteed, so it doesn't make sense to divide

:46:35.:46:37.

what we get from Europe and the prices on it. We are strongly in

:46:38.:46:41.

favour of the convergence ftnding favour of the convergence funding

:46:42.:46:43.

and we think generally our membership of the UKIP has brought

:46:44.:46:49.

us a lot of benefits. There are three other parties standing on the

:46:50.:46:54.

Southwest. The British National Party, the Independence party and

:46:55.:46:56.

the English Democrats. There Party, the Independence party and

:46:57.:46:57.

the English Democrats. Therd is Party, the Independence party and

:46:58.:46:57.

the English Democrats. There is a the English Democrats. There is a

:46:58.:46:58.

full list on the BBC websitd. the English Democrats. Therd is a

:46:59.:46:59.

full list on the BBC website. The issue of immigration from the

:47:00.:47:04.

European Union has been pushed to the top of the agenda by one party,

:47:05.:47:06.

the top of the agenda by ond party, Julia's, and this campaign. But how

:47:07.:47:10.

many immigrants are actually Julia's, and this campaign. But how

:47:11.:47:12.

many immigrants are actuallx coming many immigrants are actually coming

:47:13.:47:12.

and whether their presence hs a many immigrants are actuallx coming

:47:13.:47:14.

and whether their presence is a good or bad thing is hotly disputed.

:47:15.:47:22.

They are big, they are bold, and the message seems to be heading home on

:47:23.:47:27.

the streets of Plymouth. Foreigners getting all the jobs. Not much for

:47:28.:47:32.

getting all the jobs. Not mtch for the British. An unlimited following

:47:33.:47:38.

implement. This woman has bden the British. An unlimited following

:47:39.:47:39.

implement. This woman has been out implement. This woman has bden out

:47:40.:47:42.

of work for two years. I am not racist but they are taking over.

:47:43.:47:44.

of work for two years. I am not racist but they are taking over It

:47:45.:47:44.

racist but they are taking over. It is full of foreigners. They have

:47:45.:47:51.

shops here, Polish shops in that. It is hard to get a job. It is the

:47:52.:47:57.

limit is home to around 9000 people born in other parts of the EU. That

:47:58.:48:00.

born in other parts of the DU. That is just every 3% of the city's

:48:01.:48:02.

population. There are a dozdn is just every 3% of the citx's

:48:03.:48:05.

population. There are a dozen shops population. There are a dozen shops

:48:06.:48:06.

in the city catering for East European tastes. A jar of both Gary

:48:07.:48:15.

and pickled vegetables. A Romanian couple of things this shop `t the

:48:16.:48:24.

end of last year. We decided to open the shop, thinking on the 1st of

:48:25.:48:28.

January, work restrictions would lift and more people would come, but

:48:29.:48:30.

lift and more people would come but there were already enough people

:48:31.:48:31.

there were already enough pdople here for the business to be viable.

:48:32.:48:38.

Since those restrictions on workers from Bulgaria and Romania wdre

:48:39.:48:39.

Since those restrictions on workers from Bulgaria and Romania were eased

:48:40.:48:42.

in January, 1000 you are workers have arrived in the UK. Not quite

:48:43.:48:49.

what EU predicted but it's lead up is not budging. They don't appear to

:48:50.:48:56.

have increased since then. But from the rest of Europe, the numbers are

:48:57.:49:02.

going up rapidly. We have no control. 485 million people have the

:49:03.:49:06.

ability to come and work in person. For one of his workers living in

:49:07.:49:10.

Britain, signs are scary. ILO For one of his workers living in

:49:11.:49:13.

Britain, signs are scary. ILO pappy. I have not done anything wrong here.

:49:14.:49:15.

This woman came here `` I al not This woman came here `` I al not

:49:16.:49:21.

happy. This woman came here a few years ago and works minimum wage in

:49:22.:49:26.

a care home. I did not take anyone's job. No`one wanted to take

:49:27.:49:31.

it. When you go to the job centre, there are thousands of jobs. The

:49:32.:49:35.

people do not want to work. I did not take an idea not feel guilty.

:49:36.:49:42.

Research from Oxford University suggests most immigrants are in

:49:43.:49:45.

suggests most immigrants ard in work, with less than 5% claiming job

:49:46.:49:47.

seeker a lower ones. Not evdryone work, with less than 5% clahming job

:49:48.:49:49.

seeker a lower ones. Not everyone in seeker a lower ones. Not evdryone in

:49:50.:49:53.

the blaze immigrants. I think the migrants are coming here and doing

:49:54.:49:54.

jobs that people in this country jobs that people in this country

:49:55.:49:59.

will not do anymore. They would rather claim their benefits than

:50:00.:50:02.

actually work. Compared to other parts of the UK, the immigr`tion

:50:03.:50:04.

parts of the UK, the immigration experience so far in the Sotthwest

:50:05.:50:09.

is tiny. We will get a complete breakdown of what is happening

:50:10.:50:11.

is tiny. We will get a complete breakdown of what is happenhng when

:50:12.:50:12.

the official immigration figures are released on Thursday.

:50:13.:50:18.

Here is the Green Party's leader. released on Thursday.

:50:19.:50:26.

Here is the Green Party's ldader. I Here is the Green Party's ldader. I

:50:27.:50:26.

think the way his argument is Here is the Green Party's leader. I

:50:27.:50:27.

think the way his argument hs being think the way his argument is being

:50:28.:50:30.

used is disgraceful and sochally used is disgraceful and socially

:50:31.:50:33.

destructive. `` this argument. British people are basically

:50:34.:50:34.

British people are basicallx tolerant. I think what lies behind

:50:35.:50:40.

it is the fact that when a lot of much poorer countries were brought

:50:41.:50:44.

into Europe, there was no attempt to equalize the way in which we worked

:50:45.:50:47.

across the European Union, so left`wing governments left this

:50:48.:50:52.

country quite honourable, and we might look at greater equality

:50:53.:50:55.

across Europe in terms of w`ges and across Europe in terms of w`ges and

:50:56.:50:58.

conditions of employment so there is much less pressure for people to

:50:59.:50:59.

move. We have four parties `re move. We have four parties `re

:51:00.:51:06.

presented here in the studio. I want to come to you, Julia. You have made

:51:07.:51:12.

this the centrepiece of your campaign, and it seems to bd

:51:13.:51:14.

this the centrepiece of your campaign, and it seems to be a

:51:15.:51:17.

numbers game for you, the htge influx of all variants and

:51:18.:51:22.

Romanians. `` Bulgarians. In reality, the scaremongering is a

:51:23.:51:31.

gross exaggeration, isn't it? We have not said that. The poster says

:51:32.:51:36.

that pleasantly. As far as the Romanian and Bulgarian immigration

:51:37.:51:40.

is concerned, although it is down for thousands of sharper 4000 on the

:51:41.:51:47.

previous three`month tomatods up 29,000 the `` although it was down

:51:48.:51:51.

4000 the previous three`month period, it was actually up. In

:51:52.:51:58.

September 2013, over 200,000 people will stop at the time that the

:51:59.:52:04.

countries were able to come and work here, an economist actually says

:52:05.:52:09.

there is no shortage of workers are skills. There was a shortage of

:52:10.:52:10.

skills. There was a shortagd of people prepared to work long hours

:52:11.:52:15.

for very little money, and the jobs that a lot of the immigrants are

:52:16.:52:19.

taking, a lot of our people can t afford to live on them. The point

:52:20.:52:21.

is, these quite specific predictions is, these quite specific predictions

:52:22.:52:26.

you have made about numbers have been proven wrong. If you say that

:52:27.:52:30.

this freedom of movement in the European Union, a lot of people

:52:31.:52:35.

would say, that is OK, but did he say 26 million people are going to

:52:36.:52:38.

come here and take our jobs and live on our benefits, they are going to

:52:39.:52:42.

be worried. It matters whether that is true or not. A lot of the

:52:43.:52:44.

be worried. It matters whether that is true or not. A lot of thd jobs

:52:45.:52:48.

available in this country... What about these numbers? You said 26

:52:49.:52:50.

about these numbers? You sahd 2 million people want to come to

:52:51.:52:55.

Britain. There are 26 million people unemployed currently in the EU.

:52:56.:52:59.

Through the European jobs portal, they can apply for jobs that are not

:53:00.:53:03.

even advertised in this country and the EU will pay them money. Will

:53:04.:53:14.

they take the jobs in care homes? Most of these people are working on

:53:15.:53:19.

the minimum wage or less, and when you realise that's 20% of pdople

:53:20.:53:23.

the minimum wage or less, and when you realise that's 20% of people in

:53:24.:53:23.

you realise that's 20% of pdople in work are in work benefits because

:53:24.:53:25.

work are in work benefits bdcause they cannot earn enough to live on,

:53:26.:53:30.

this is a problem, so when they say that British people do not want to

:53:31.:53:34.

do these jobs, and lots of cases, it is because they can't afford to take

:53:35.:53:35.

those jobs. Clare Moody frol is because they can't afford to take

:53:36.:53:40.

those jobs. Clare Moody from Labour, if that is true, that seems very

:53:41.:53:46.

unfair, doesn't it? I am interested that Julia raises those issues,

:53:47.:53:49.

because they are very different from the ones that appear to be ones

:53:50.:53:53.

raised on the posters, and what I would say is that Labour has the

:53:54.:53:58.

answers to those issues in terms of, for example, agencies advertising

:53:59.:54:05.

abroad to bring people just into jobs in the UK from abroad, and we

:54:06.:54:06.

would stop that from happenhng jobs in the UK from abroad, and we

:54:07.:54:08.

would stop that from happening so would stop that from happenhng so

:54:09.:54:10.

that jobs would be equally advertised in this country as

:54:11.:54:13.

that jobs would be equally advertised in this country `s they

:54:14.:54:13.

advertised in this country as they are overseas. Indeed, we have

:54:14.:54:15.

policies to promote the living wage. policies to promote the livhng wage.

:54:16.:54:18.

I am very concerned about the suppression of wages in the

:54:19.:54:22.

development of the hourglass economy, where you have numerous

:54:23.:54:27.

jobs that are low`paid and then completely separate, higher skilled,

:54:28.:54:34.

higher paid work, and we nedd more connection. So these are serious

:54:35.:54:41.

issues that Julia is raising? The issues about wages, I am not sure

:54:42.:54:44.

they are entirely linked to immigration, the point about

:54:45.:54:49.

agencies, we have made that point. It is actually a more structural

:54:50.:54:52.

point around the economy and one that I believe we have to address

:54:53.:54:55.

and that the Labour Party h`s certainly raised policies over.

:54:56.:55:00.

James, the present Conservative government has set itself a very

:55:01.:55:03.

ambitious target to bring immigration down. It is feeling

:55:04.:55:10.

pretty dismally, isn't it? `` sailing. The UK economy is the

:55:11.:55:14.

fastest growing in the G7 economies, and if you remember the European

:55:15.:55:20.

Union, it you would had to a Union, it you would had to `

:55:21.:55:24.

prosperous country rather than not, and before the Eastern bloc came in

:55:25.:55:30.

in 2004, immigration was an issue, because the countries that were in

:55:31.:55:33.

were of a similar economic standing, whereas as soon as he got dhfferent

:55:34.:55:35.

levels, there is going to be whereas as soon as he got different

:55:36.:55:38.

levels, there is going to bd a new levels, there is going to bd a new

:55:39.:55:41.

from east to west. It is a problem if you are trying to have

:55:42.:55:52.

transitional controls. This has been not to the UKIP, and EU havd two

:55:53.:55:54.

things of the election campaign, things of the election camp`ign

:55:55.:55:56.

they have highlighted this as things of the election campaign,

:55:57.:56:01.

they have highlighted this as a referendum election when it is not,

:56:02.:56:04.

and they will never be able to have the power to offer a referendum

:56:05.:56:07.

Nigel Farage is the only member Nigel Farage is the only member

:56:08.:56:14.

anyone can name. They are not going to have that. It is also creating an

:56:15.:56:20.

atmosphere of hatred and it is not. It is a very tolerant society.

:56:21.:56:27.

Workers will come here and then expect... They do have forehgn

:56:28.:56:32.

expect... They do have foreign workers but they are working long

:56:33.:56:37.

hours on low wages, and the sad thing is, British people do not want

:56:38.:56:41.

to do it, because you can claim benefits. You want people to come

:56:42.:56:46.

here who are going to work and contribution to society. Yot

:56:47.:56:47.

here who are going to work `nd contribution to society. You don't

:56:48.:56:47.

contribution to society. Yot don't want people coming here and doing

:56:48.:56:51.

nothing. Putting that points to Julia, he said it is creating an

:56:52.:56:57.

atmosphere of hatred `` you said it was creating an atmosphere of

:56:58.:57:01.

hatred? It is not about pulling the drawbridge up. The reality is,

:57:02.:57:05.

hatred? It is not about pulling the drawbridge up. The reality hs, the

:57:06.:57:05.

right people, the right moments drawbridge up. The reality is, the

:57:06.:57:08.

right people, the right momdnts on right people, the right moments on

:57:09.:57:10.

the Duke `` migrants, Duke contributes to our country. We want

:57:11.:57:20.

a points `based system similar to what they have in Australia. At the

:57:21.:57:25.

moment, because we have to have so many people come from Eastern

:57:26.:57:32.

Europe, we have no control, it limits the number of people that we

:57:33.:57:33.

can take from New Zealand, India limits the number of people that we

:57:34.:57:35.

can take from New Zealand, Hndia and can take from New Zealand, Hndia and

:57:36.:57:41.

Pakistan, so in actual fact, the `` so in actual fact... So you are

:57:42.:57:47.

using Australia as an example? We want a points `based system. You can

:57:48.:57:50.

just say what you want. I can want a points `based system. You can

:57:51.:57:53.

just say what you want. I can say, I am standing today for no income tax

:57:54.:57:57.

and everyone should pay no dual duty. I would be very popular. What

:57:58.:58:04.

would I'd be able to do it? The reality is, the number of people

:58:05.:58:07.

coming from the rest of the European Union into the UK is on the rise,

:58:08.:58:12.

isn't it? That is concerning some people. I've find it sad that UKIP

:58:13.:58:21.

have been blamed. As other people have said, we are up very tolerant

:58:22.:58:27.

nation, and a considerable number of Britons are working and living in

:58:28.:58:31.

Europe. What would you say to the people in the film who clearly are

:58:32.:58:32.

concerned about their emploxment concerned about their employment

:58:33.:58:38.

prospects? I come from a background in farming. It is not a question of

:58:39.:58:41.

just income. There are not many just income. There are not many

:58:42.:58:44.

British evil who want to go out and do hard manual work on a farm, ``

:58:45.:58:50.

British people who want to go out and do hard manual work on ` farm.

:58:51.:58:54.

and do hard manual work on a farm. It is not just a question of wages,

:58:55.:58:59.

it is a question of willingness to work, and the immigrants have shown

:59:00.:59:03.

that in bucketful, really. But if you are in a country with a

:59:04.:59:09.

struggling economy, whether it is southern Europe or Eastern Europe,

:59:10.:59:10.

southern Europe or Eastern Durope, you are likely to want to meet

:59:11.:59:12.

you are likely to want to mdet summer which is more economically

:59:13.:59:13.

summer which is more economhcally buoyant. Yes. The `` of move

:59:14.:59:16.

buoyant. Yes. The `` of movd somewhere. The big attraction is

:59:17.:59:21.

that we speak English. A lot of those people come here with the idea

:59:22.:59:27.

of learning to speak English. It is a two`way street. At the molent it

:59:28.:59:35.

is much more one way down the other. One of the problems we have in this

:59:36.:59:37.

country is that we do not have good country is that we do not h`ve good

:59:38.:59:41.

numbers about the numbers of people coming in and people going out. We

:59:42.:59:45.

register everyone coming in but we don't have a good system for

:59:46.:59:47.

counting people out, so we `ctually counting people out, so we `ctually

:59:48.:59:51.

don't really know a lot of this data. We do know, Julia, that

:59:52.:59:58.

actually, there are as many British people living and working elsewhere

:59:59.:00:04.

in the EU as there are people from elsewhere in the temp two working in

:00:05.:00:09.

Britain. It is about 2.2 million, but you are talking about British

:00:10.:00:17.

people spreading all out through the other EU 27. Other countries like

:00:18.:00:23.

Germany are popular destinations. It is not true that the UK takes

:00:24.:00:27.

everybody from Eastern Europe. I am just saying, the equivalent, 2.2

:00:28.:00:35.

million migrants, and there are 2.2 million Britons living in the rest

:00:36.:00:38.

of the European Union, but they are not all in one country. There are

:00:39.:00:42.

about a million in Spain but a lot of those are retired and thdy

:00:43.:00:44.

about a million in Spain but a lot of those are retired and they are

:00:45.:00:44.

of those are retired and thdy are not taking jobs, and because their

:00:45.:00:46.

not taking jobs, and becausd their pensions are paid from this country,

:00:47.:00:49.

they are actually taking money into Spain. They are a benefit. I am not

:00:50.:00:58.

saying that EU migrants are not 150,000 migrants in this country

:00:59.:01:00.

150,000 migrants in this cotntry right now, they only pay a pound a

:01:01.:01:03.

week because they are on such low wages. But they are using the health

:01:04.:01:11.

service in Spain. In this rdgion, hugely dependent on the migrant

:01:12.:01:14.

population, and the desire of Villy people in the UK that benefit

:01:15.:01:16.

population, and the desire of Villy people in the UK that benefht from

:01:17.:01:16.

people in the UK that benefit from that. 2006, changed `` Spain change

:01:17.:01:23.

the law and you cannot get free health care over the age of 65. We

:01:24.:01:26.

have to leave it thank you very much indeed. Back to

:01:27.:01:27.

Andrew. Welcome back. Politicians always

:01:28.:01:41.

insist in public that opinion polls do not matter. Even though their own

:01:42.:01:46.

parties each spend a small fortune on private polling. If they take

:01:47.:01:52.

them seriously, so do we! Let's take a closer

:01:53.:01:57.

them seriously, so do we! Let's take votes might fall for the European

:01:58.:01:57.

Parliament. votes might fall for the European

:01:58.:02:02.

looked set to finish first. By April, UKIP had edged into the lead.

:02:03.:02:08.

According to today's poles, Nigel Farage's party is either down into

:02:09.:02:12.

place, or has soared ahead. Both cannot be right. It is a similar

:02:13.:02:18.

picture for the general election. Labour's lead has been cut back by

:02:19.:02:34.

the Tories. This is the most unpredictable general election in a

:02:35.:02:35.

long time. It keeps us in a job! We long time. It keeps us in a job We

:02:36.:02:41.

are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.

:02:42.:02:45.

Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the

:02:46.:02:50.

European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is

:02:51.:02:53.

going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of

:02:54.:02:58.

the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more

:02:59.:03:03.

than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are

:03:04.:03:09.

doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,

:03:10.:03:12.

certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them

:03:13.:03:14.

democratically, demographically, democratically, demographically

:03:15.:03:21.

with the older age profile, who are going to vote. Another poll gives

:03:22.:03:32.

them only a one-point lead, so, come the results coming out, you are

:03:33.:03:35.

either going to look away ahead of your time or very stupid?

:03:36.:03:38.

Absolutely. That is the job of pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong.

:03:39.:03:45.

Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, and we are hoping to be spot on on

:03:46.:03:52.

Thursday. So you were spot on on voting intention in 2009? Yes. What

:03:53.:04:03.

does the indications of what is now a four party system mean, does it

:04:04.:04:12.

change the nature of your methods? It changes how we look at the polls,

:04:13.:04:18.

how we look at what is going to happen as a result of the vote.

:04:19.:04:23.

Predicting the number of seats is becoming more and more important and

:04:24.:04:28.

more difficult to do, because distribution is becoming

:04:29.:04:30.

fundamentally important. Because it is for parties? That's right. . Does

:04:31.:04:38.

the polling give us any evidence to try to settle the matter of whether

:04:39.:04:40.

UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We

:04:41.:04:46.

know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the

:04:47.:04:50.

Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But

:04:51.:04:54.

actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different

:04:55.:04:59.

sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single

:05:00.:05:02.

establishment party should be worried, because the people voting

:05:03.:05:07.

for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.

:05:08.:05:11.

They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of

:05:12.:05:17.

them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class

:05:18.:05:20.

Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the

:05:21.:05:26.

establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who

:05:27.:05:31.

are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,

:05:32.:05:37.

where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are

:05:38.:05:41.

representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,

:05:42.:05:47.

where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote

:05:48.:05:55.

would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any

:05:56.:05:58.

European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much

:05:59.:06:02.

attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that

:06:03.:06:06.

they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic

:06:07.:06:11.

of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would

:06:12.:06:16.

otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on

:06:17.:06:20.

the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not

:06:21.:06:26.

entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are

:06:27.:06:33.

completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to

:06:34.:06:37.

think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage

:06:38.:06:42.

a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people

:06:43.:06:43.

don't care. Instinctively, Nick, Britain, but still, most people

:06:44.:06:47.

don't care. Instinctively, Nick you don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you

:06:48.:06:48.

would think, if you are a UKIP photo, if you have made that choice,

:06:49.:06:54.

then you would probably be more motivated to go and vote on

:06:55.:06:59.

Thursday? I am sure that is right. Also, the publicity that Nigel

:07:00.:07:04.

Farage has had. And also, as Catherine says, people are attracted

:07:05.:07:09.

to UKIP because they are annoyed with the established parties. If you

:07:10.:07:14.

have made that big decision to do it, then you will probably do it.

:07:15.:07:18.

The really big question which we want to take out of these elections

:07:19.:07:23.

is, how many people who have left the established parties, left the

:07:24.:07:27.

Conservative Party, in these elections on Thursday, how many of

:07:28.:07:31.

them will stick with UKIP and how many of them will go back? Nigel

:07:32.:07:39.

Farage is very confident, he is saying that 60% of those certain to

:07:40.:07:42.

vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If that happens, it is a real problem

:07:43.:07:47.

for Downing Street. Downing Street are basically saying that many

:07:48.:07:51.

Tories will have a fling with UKIP but they will return to the marital

:07:52.:07:56.

home next year. You do two sorts of polling, for the European elections,

:07:57.:08:01.

and for the general election, which may be more relevant to the local

:08:02.:08:04.

election voters, but what is the answer to his question? We do not

:08:05.:08:11.

know at the moment. We when you ask people how likely they are to vote

:08:12.:08:16.

in the same way, they are thinking that actually, I am going to vote in

:08:17.:08:19.

exactly the same way at the general election, they are not going to say,

:08:20.:08:24.

I am going to split my vote. I think the key point is, what happens in

:08:25.:08:28.

the Euros. We have a fixed term parliament, which means momentum is

:08:29.:08:32.

crucial. What comes out of the Euros will be a statement about how well

:08:33.:08:35.

UKIP can last for the next year or UKIP can last for the next year, or

:08:36.:08:40.

indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the

:08:41.:08:45.

parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could

:08:46.:08:50.

be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a

:08:51.:08:55.

couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can

:08:56.:09:10.

see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP

:09:11.:09:13.

for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's

:09:14.:09:19.

policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr

:09:20.:09:24.

Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there

:09:25.:09:28.

will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot

:09:29.:09:35.

yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is

:09:36.:09:43.

plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the

:09:44.:09:47.

Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a

:09:48.:09:53.

Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for

:09:54.:09:59.

each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg

:10:00.:10:07.

loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially

:10:08.:10:10.

to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.

:10:11.:10:15.

I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two

:10:16.:10:18.

prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the

:10:19.:10:24.

leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick

:10:25.:10:29.

Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive

:10:30.:10:32.

proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.

:10:33.:10:37.

Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble

:10:38.:10:42.

for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the

:10:43.:10:46.

photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden

:10:47.:10:51.

with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to

:10:52.:10:57.

appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear

:10:58.:11:01.

rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know

:11:02.:11:05.

what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,

:11:06.:11:10.

all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of

:11:11.:11:14.

the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are

:11:15.:11:19.

immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really

:11:20.:11:22.

talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you

:11:23.:11:27.

say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this

:11:28.:11:31.

calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages

:11:32.:11:35.

and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The

:11:36.:11:43.

calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt

:11:44.:11:45.

Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack

:11:46.:11:50.

Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on

:11:51.:11:55.

that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,

:11:56.:12:00.

which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so

:12:01.:12:02.

elected in 2008 after the crash so everything he did was about rescue.

:12:03.:12:07.

The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power

:12:08.:12:11.

when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison.

:12:12.:12:14.

Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount -

:12:15.:12:19.

Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David

:12:20.:12:25.

Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that

:12:26.:12:31.

matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like

:12:32.:12:37.

Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who

:12:38.:12:42.

you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually,

:12:43.:12:45.

the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not

:12:46.:12:50.

changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable.

:12:51.:12:56.

Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing

:12:57.:13:02.

about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to

:13:03.:13:07.

use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you

:13:08.:13:12.

all go to the polls on Thursday There will be tonnes of election

:13:13.:13:16.

coverage and results on the BBC Thursday night, Friday, and of

:13:17.:13:20.

course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily

:13:21.:13:23.

Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next

:13:24.:13:27.

Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it

:13:28.:13:31.

is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics.

:13:32.:14:08.

The consultation on closure is supposed to last for 45 days

:14:09.:14:13.

11 Yorkshire children have all been honoured for their courage...

:14:14.:14:17.

The hospital's own report identified systemic failures..

:14:18.:14:20.

The South East was battered by hurricane-force winds...

:14:21.:14:23.

..but I do not want to see inappropriate solar developments

:14:24.:14:26.

'However you see the world, find the stories that matter to you.'

:14:27.:14:31.

It's time to join the BBC's news teams where you are.

:14:32.:14:35.

The Sunday before we go to the polls in local and European elections, Andrew Neil talks to the culture secretary Sajid Javid, Liberal Democrat Simon Hughes and Labour's Hilary Benn.


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