Browse content similar to 18/05/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until | :00:37. | :00:44. | |
election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections | :00:49. | :00:52. | |
on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls | :00:53. | :00:57. | |
are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the | :01:06. | :01:11. | |
campaign trail, he has been asking all the big | :01:12. | :01:19. | |
campaign trail, he has been asking A special European election debate. | :01:20. | :01:20. | |
I will be this week, a last look at the euro | :01:21. | :01:24. | |
elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's | :01:25. | :01:35. | |
32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got | :01:36. | :01:40. | |
all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it | :01:41. | :01:47. | |
is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local | :01:48. | :01:51. | |
elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are | :01:52. | :01:55. | |
the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some | :01:56. | :02:00. | |
say that these European and local elections will not be much of a | :02:01. | :02:01. | |
pointer to how the big one goes But pointer to how the big one goes. But | :02:02. | :02:06. | |
that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from | :02:07. | :02:11. | |
examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is | :02:12. | :02:17. | |
local elections and European Parliament elections. | :02:18. | :02:37. | |
These local results should be known by Friday. In the European | :02:38. | :02:45. | |
elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected | :02:46. | :02:50. | |
across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has | :02:55. | :02:58. | |
closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the | :03:04. | :03:07. | |
outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is | :03:12. | :03:15. | |
difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more | :03:24. | :03:29. | |
slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know, | :03:30. | :03:36. | |
but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months | :03:37. | :03:39. | |
ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the | :03:40. | :03:45. | |
Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment, | :03:50. | :03:52. | |
and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results, | :03:53. | :03:57. | |
whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a | :04:11. | :04:13. | |
significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be | :04:14. | :04:20. | |
worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all | :04:21. | :04:23. | |
have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly | :04:34. | :04:42. | |
resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and | :04:43. | :04:51. | |
incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one, | :04:52. | :04:55. | |
but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done, | :04:56. | :05:00. | |
to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland, | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but | :05:10. | :05:16. | |
whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent | :05:17. | :05:18. | |
event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a | :05:24. | :05:29. | |
national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly | :05:30. | :05:33. | |
historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. -- | :05:38. | :05:45. | |
populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely | :05:46. | :05:50. | |
ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general | :05:51. | :05:53. | |
election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works | :05:58. | :06:00. | |
fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four... | :06:01. | :06:07. | |
We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. | :06:08. | :06:12. | |
She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an | :06:13. | :06:15. | |
earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been | :06:26. | :06:32. | |
around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European | :06:33. | :06:36. | |
elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 2015, | :06:41. | :06:44. | |
getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes | :06:45. | :06:49. | |
on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense | :06:50. | :06:51. | |
policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election. If | :06:56. | :06:59. | |
we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim. | :07:00. | :07:09. | |
You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the | :07:10. | :07:14. | |
stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and | :07:15. | :07:17. | |
members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least, I | :07:18. | :07:23. | |
would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around | :07:28. | :07:32. | |
for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you | :07:33. | :07:37. | |
had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17 | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition | :07:47. | :07:49. | |
we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of | :07:54. | :07:57. | |
that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who | :08:02. | :08:04. | |
have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even | :08:05. | :08:11. | |
putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions | :08:12. | :08:14. | |
or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the | :08:15. | :08:20. | |
BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any | :08:21. | :08:24. | |
other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something | :08:25. | :08:30. | |
loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party. | :08:31. | :08:34. | |
We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of | :08:35. | :08:38. | |
expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage, | :08:39. | :08:42. | |
who is a fantastic, charismatic leader. But believe me, there is a | :08:43. | :08:50. | |
huge amount of talent. When we get our MEPs into power after the | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
European elections, we will see many more of them I think on television | :08:55. | :08:56. | |
and radio and in the newspapers. more of them I think on television | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
and radio and in the newspapers We are not a one-man band. Who runs | :09:01. | :09:07. | |
your party? The party is run by Nigel Farage, our leader. But he | :09:08. | :09:11. | |
spends all his time running between television studios and in and out of | :09:12. | :09:17. | |
the pub! You would be amazed how much he does, and of course we have | :09:18. | :09:20. | |
a National Executive Committee, like the other parties. So who runs it? | :09:21. | :09:26. | |
The National Executive Committee, in conjunction with Nigel Farage, the | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a joint effort. Your Local Government | :09:32. | :09:34. | |
Minister Stosur is, if you vote UKIP, you go on to pledge that your | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
councillors will not toe the party line, how does that work? -- your | :09:40. | :09:50. | |
local government manifesto says... On the main policies, they will toe | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
the party line, because that is obviously what people will be voting | :09:55. | :09:58. | |
for. It is no good putting forward a manifesto like the Lib Dems did on | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive -- | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive - a | :10:09. | :10:09. | |
lot of policies at local government level, and those we will stick to. | :10:10. | :10:12. | |
But when it comes to individual, But when it comes to individual | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best | :10:21. | :10:25. | |
interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find. | :10:30. | :10:34. | |
People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their | :10:35. | :10:38. | |
party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote | :10:39. | :10:43. | |
to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity. | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it. | :11:12. | :11:16. | |
We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade | :11:21. | :11:24. | |
deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What | :11:25. | :11:32. | |
would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for | :11:33. | :11:37. | |
back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade | :11:38. | :11:41. | |
agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975 | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do | :11:50. | :11:58. | |
not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply | :11:59. | :12:02. | |
concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, | :12:03. | :12:08. | |
concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew it | :12:09. | :12:08. | |
would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it sounds like you are complaining that | :12:09. | :12:12. | |
we might have something which is better than 1975. I am just trying | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
to find out what it is! That sounds like positive to me. We will | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
negotiate a trade deal and all manner of issues, whatever is best | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
for the British people. We want our sovereignty back, we want our | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
country back. Would you be upset if a bunch of Rumanian men moved in | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
next door to you? Where I live, I am surrounded by one and two-bedroom | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in next door to me, I would want to ask | :12:41. | :12:44. | |
questions. That is very different from say a Robinho family moving in | :12:45. | :12:54. | |
next door. I would think, are they being ripped off, are they up to no | :12:55. | :12:58. | |
good or are they perhaps being trafficked by a gang master? So I | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
think it would be of concern, and I do not think there is anything wrong | :13:04. | :13:06. | |
with that, it is a humanitarian approach. That would be different | :13:07. | :13:09. | |
from a family moving in who were learning to speak English, who | :13:10. | :13:12. | |
wanted to contribute to the British economy. Maybe if your boss is | :13:13. | :13:18. | |
watching, he will now have found out how to answer that question. | :13:19. | :13:27. | |
Now, what is more glamorous, 24 hours in the life of a | :13:28. | :13:35. | |
counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours in the life of Adam Fleming, on the | :13:36. | :13:40. | |
campaign trail? I will let you make up your own mind. So, it is eight | :13:41. | :13:47. | |
o'clock in the morning here in Westminster. Today's challenge is, | :13:48. | :13:51. | |
how much campaigning for the local and European elections can we fit | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
into 12 hours? See you back here at eight o'clock tonight. Wish me | :13:57. | :14:01. | |
luck. With my cameraman and producer, we went to Thurrock in | :14:02. | :14:08. | |
Essex first. I got a very, very warm welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They | :14:09. | :14:19. | |
have never had this much attention. One candidate's misdemeanour ends up | :14:20. | :14:25. | |
on the front page. But you have got Lib Dem candidates being convicted | :14:26. | :14:27. | |
of racially aggravated assault, and that was not on the front pages of | :14:28. | :14:31. | |
the newspapers. Houdini is fine but it must be applied evenly. Have you | :14:32. | :14:38. | |
had to sack Thurrock UKIP members for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, | :14:39. | :14:46. | |
God, no. Next we head to meet a top Tory in a different area. We are | :14:47. | :14:50. | |
heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in traffic. We are going to miss | :14:51. | :14:56. | |
William Hague. We got there, just in time, to ask the really big | :14:57. | :15:00. | |
questions. David Cameron went to Nando De Colo last week, where are | :15:01. | :15:05. | |
you going to go for lunch? I do not even get time for lunch. I think | :15:06. | :15:12. | |
something in the back of the car. We will go down the street and see what | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
people have got to say. Even the Foreign Secretary has depressed the | :15:18. | :15:21. | |
flesh at election time? Even the Foreign Secretary meets real people. | :15:22. | :15:33. | |
The message William Hague impresses upon everyone he meets is that the | :15:34. | :15:39. | |
Tories are the only party offering a referendum on our membership of the | :15:40. | :15:47. | |
EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. I've got five minutes by the beach. | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
This is the best thing about elections, lunch. Do you want one? | :15:53. | :15:59. | |
This is the best thing about And chips are weirdly relevant at | :16:00. | :16:01. | |
our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which | :16:02. | :16:06. | |
our next stop - the Green Party about this vehicle? It runs from | :16:07. | :16:09. | |
chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was | :16:10. | :16:19. | |
boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just | :16:20. | :16:25. | |
hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft | :16:26. | :16:32. | |
their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who | :16:33. | :16:40. | |
live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed | :16:41. | :16:46. | |
Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls | :16:47. | :16:49. | |
lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who | :16:50. | :16:52. | |
is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're | :16:53. | :17:05. | |
flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right | :17:06. | :17:11. | |
place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning | :17:12. | :17:17. | |
as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said | :17:18. | :17:24. | |
the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If | :17:25. | :17:31. | |
he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not | :17:32. | :17:36. | |
forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40 | :17:37. | :17:41. | |
minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for | :17:42. | :17:47. | |
something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home | :17:48. | :17:55. | |
for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy | :17:56. | :18:08. | |
elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack | :18:09. | :18:15. | |
Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens | :18:16. | :18:18. | |
used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went | :18:19. | :18:28. | |
wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs | :18:29. | :18:35. | |
and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these | :18:36. | :18:40. | |
elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party | :18:41. | :18:43. | |
calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making | :18:44. | :18:50. | |
poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have | :18:51. | :18:56. | |
made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the | :18:57. | :19:03. | |
left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I | :19:08. | :19:15. | |
met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane | :19:16. | :19:17. | |
exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond | :19:18. | :19:24. | |
issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned | :19:25. | :19:27. | |
about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the | :19:28. | :19:32. | |
Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price | :19:33. | :19:39. | |
bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the | :19:40. | :19:46. | |
same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline | :19:47. | :19:55. | |
greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs | :19:56. | :20:00. | |
and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has | :20:06. | :20:08. | |
sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one | :20:09. | :20:16. | |
planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by | :20:17. | :20:21. | |
renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on | :20:22. | :20:27. | |
days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It | :20:28. | :20:33. | |
is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a | :20:34. | :20:37. | |
smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to | :20:38. | :20:43. | |
supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to | :20:44. | :20:48. | |
work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and | :20:49. | :20:55. | |
we are losing opportunities. 50% of we are losing opportunities. 50 of | :20:56. | :21:00. | |
German renewable electricity is owned by communities and it stays | :21:01. | :21:04. | |
within communities, rather than the big six energy companies. So you | :21:05. | :21:15. | |
have still got to take the French nuclear power. What we need to | :21:16. | :21:26. | |
do... Nuclear is a dead technology, going down in the developed world. | :21:27. | :21:32. | |
At the moment the Government proposes the most expensive proposal | :21:33. | :21:37. | |
for Britain and yet the last two plans took 17 years to bring online, | :21:38. | :21:43. | |
way too slow for what we need now. We know what the Green council would | :21:44. | :21:47. | |
be like if you were to win more seats on Thursday because you run | :21:48. | :21:52. | |
Brighton. Your own Green MP joined strikers against the council, the | :21:53. | :21:58. | |
local Greens are at each other's throats, a council ridden with | :21:59. | :22:03. | |
factionalism, attempts to raise council tax to 5%, attempted coups | :22:04. | :22:08. | |
against the local Green leader by other Greens and you have had to | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
bring in mediators. If you look at the life of people in Brighton and | :22:14. | :22:18. | |
Hove, it has seen its visitor numbers go up by 50,000, it has | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
become the top seaside resort in Britain, we have seen GCSE results | :22:24. | :22:30. | |
going up significantly. These are the things affecting people's lives | :22:31. | :22:36. | |
in Brighton and Hove. 60% of Brighton and Hove people think life | :22:37. | :22:42. | |
is better and the Greens. We have a debate to be had from next year's | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
election and perhaps we can have that debate next year. But you hold | :22:48. | :22:52. | |
up Brighton as the way the city should be run? We have made huge | :22:53. | :22:57. | |
progress, we have found money to be brought into the city to improve | :22:58. | :23:05. | |
Green spaces. I was on the big ride in London yesterday, and we need to | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
change our roads so they worked the people as well as cars. Which side | :23:11. | :23:14. | |
of the picket line were you on in Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was | :23:15. | :23:23. | |
in London, travelling around as I do most days. From Penzance to | :23:24. | :23:29. | |
Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you. | :23:30. | :23:33. | |
Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you I'm | :23:34. | :23:33. | |
Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP, | :23:34. | :24:07. | |
the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a | :24:08. | :24:17. | |
European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and | :24:18. | :24:22. | |
only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with | :24:23. | :24:27. | |
the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP | :24:28. | :24:34. | |
party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions | :24:35. | :24:39. | |
usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on | :24:40. | :24:42. | |
to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it | :24:43. | :24:49. | |
suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well | :24:50. | :24:55. | |
either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will | :25:00. | :25:05. | |
not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to | :25:06. | :25:09. | |
hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come | :25:10. | :25:15. | |
out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we | :25:16. | :25:19. | |
want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child | :25:20. | :25:24. | |
tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but | :25:25. | :25:30. | |
Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to | :25:31. | :25:37. | |
halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done | :25:42. | :25:45. | |
to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in | :25:46. | :25:56. | |
the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be | :25:57. | :26:01. | |
lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never | :26:02. | :26:09. | |
knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support | :26:10. | :26:12. | |
because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit | :26:13. | :26:18. | |
like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now | :26:19. | :26:28. | |
we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make | :26:29. | :26:33. | |
together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that | :26:34. | :26:38. | |
only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been | :26:39. | :26:48. | |
shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the | :26:54. | :27:03. | |
jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't | :27:08. | :27:12. | |
really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been | :27:13. | :27:18. | |
there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite | :27:19. | :27:22. | |
being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we | :27:27. | :27:31. | |
wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal | :27:32. | :27:35. | |
Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion. | :27:36. | :27:40. | |
But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have | :27:41. | :27:49. | |
taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We | :27:50. | :27:56. | |
are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our | :27:57. | :28:00. | |
relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why | :28:01. | :28:10. | |
has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your | :28:11. | :28:13. | |
own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we | :28:14. | :28:19. | |
have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will | :28:20. | :28:24. | |
decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is | :28:25. | :28:29. | |
that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon | :28:30. | :28:37. | |
and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband | :28:38. | :28:47. | |
said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy | :28:48. | :28:56. | |
prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower | :28:57. | :29:05. | |
than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this | :29:10. | :29:14. | |
question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David | :29:15. | :29:17. | |
Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in | :29:18. | :29:23. | |
the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties | :29:24. | :29:27. | |
that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has | :29:34. | :29:38. | |
given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing | :29:39. | :29:44. | |
something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader | :29:45. | :29:48. | |
bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of | :29:49. | :29:58. | |
the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who | :29:59. | :30:02. | |
think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak | :30:03. | :30:07. | |
to people about it, people understand that we are better in | :30:08. | :30:11. | |
them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs | :30:12. | :30:15. | |
Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have | :30:16. | :30:19. | |
battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to | :30:20. | :30:24. | |
take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been | :30:25. | :30:28. | |
delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that. | :30:29. | :30:35. | |
-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So, | :30:36. | :30:40. | |
people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's | :30:41. | :30:46. | |
antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable | :30:47. | :30:49. | |
housing they need. We as a government have delivered more | :30:50. | :30:54. | |
affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties | :30:55. | :30:57. | |
earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out | :30:58. | :31:09. | |
that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in | :31:10. | :31:15. | |
2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly | :31:16. | :31:18. | |
half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher | :31:19. | :31:24. | |
or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions | :31:25. | :31:29. | |
of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I | :31:30. | :31:37. | |
would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the | :31:38. | :31:41. | |
deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now | :31:42. | :31:45. | |
have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people | :31:46. | :31:50. | |
employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say | :31:51. | :31:53. | |
that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We | :31:54. | :31:58. | |
need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market. | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are | :32:03. | :32:06. | |
the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any | :32:07. | :32:14. | |
change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree | :32:21. | :32:23. | |
with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply | :32:24. | :32:29. | |
would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the | :32:30. | :32:33. | |
workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now | :32:34. | :32:38. | |
privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the | :32:39. | :32:43. | |
coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level | :32:44. | :32:46. | |
since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies | :32:52. | :32:55. | |
which directly address the problems which people face. I think the | :32:56. | :33:01. | |
public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for | :33:02. | :33:04. | |
the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum We | :33:05. | :33:07. | |
to be in favour of a referendum? We are in favour, we voted for one we | :33:08. | :33:09. | |
are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next | :33:10. | :33:13. | |
time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the | :33:14. | :33:17. | |
relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that. | :33:18. | :33:24. | |
We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum. | :33:25. | :33:30. | |
We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying | :33:31. | :33:36. | |
in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall | :33:37. | :33:39. | |
transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for | :33:40. | :33:49. | |
this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to | :33:50. | :33:55. | |
leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but | :33:56. | :33:58. | |
partners with the Conservatives but we do not want to be distracted at | :33:59. | :34:02. | |
the moment by a referendum in the future in relation to Europe. | :34:03. | :34:05. | |
Because what we have done is built our own economy back. That has been | :34:06. | :34:13. | |
the priority. We do not want artificial priorities. The Tories | :34:14. | :34:16. | |
want an artificial date plucked out of the air for their own advantage. | :34:17. | :34:21. | |
We say, let's get on with being positive about being in Europe, and | :34:22. | :34:24. | |
many people on the doorstep absolutely understand that. | :34:25. | :34:28. | |
Yesterday, the Energy Minister said that he thought the party would be | :34:29. | :34:33. | |
willing to campaign for a British withdrawal from the EU if there was | :34:34. | :34:39. | |
not a successful negotiation, a successful repatriation, do you | :34:40. | :34:45. | |
agree with that? First of all, I am very optimistic... I got that I am | :34:46. | :34:56. | |
going into these negotiations with confidence but Michael Fallon is one | :34:57. | :34:59. | |
of your ministerial colleagues, he said that if we cannot get a deal on | :35:00. | :35:04. | |
substantial repatriation, then the party should be willing to campaign | :35:05. | :35:08. | |
for a British withdrawal - do you agree? My view is that I am | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
confident we will get a deal, and then we will put it to the British | :35:14. | :35:17. | |
people. But you will have to take a line. If you do not get substantial | :35:18. | :35:21. | |
repatriations, will you side with Michael Fallon all with the Prime | :35:22. | :35:24. | |
Minister, who seems to want to stay in regardless? I may only have been | :35:25. | :35:30. | |
in politics for four years, but I am not going to ask that kind of | :35:31. | :35:33. | |
hypothetical question. Every question I ask is hypothetical, that | :35:34. | :35:40. | |
is the fascination of the programme! I go into these negotiations with | :35:41. | :35:43. | |
complete confidence. If you look at our track record, it suggests we | :35:44. | :35:50. | |
will be successful. Hilary Benn what is the difference between your | :35:51. | :35:54. | |
attitude and that of the Lib Dems towards a referendum? We have been | :35:55. | :36:00. | |
very clear that if it is proposed at sometime in the future, further | :36:01. | :36:05. | |
powers would be transferred, then, we would put that to the British | :36:06. | :36:09. | |
people in a referendum. That is the Lib Dem position. This is our | :36:10. | :36:14. | |
position, which I am planing to you. It would be an in-out referendum. We | :36:15. | :36:19. | |
would only agree to a transfer of powers if we thought that it was in | :36:20. | :36:25. | |
the interest of Britain. But we believe that Britain's place remains | :36:26. | :36:27. | |
and should remain in Europe, for economic reasons. But we also want | :36:28. | :36:35. | |
to see some changes in our relationship with Europe, and | :36:36. | :36:41. | |
electing Labour MEPs on Thursday will be a way of boosting that | :36:42. | :36:48. | |
argument. In what way is everything you have just said not entirely sell | :36:49. | :36:52. | |
my must with the Lib Dem position? I am not worried about that. -- | :36:53. | :37:00. | |
entirely synonymous. It is the dividing line between us and UKIP, | :37:01. | :37:03. | |
because they somehow believe that Britain leaving the European Union | :37:04. | :37:07. | |
would be good for our economy. Truth is, it would be really bad, because | :37:08. | :37:13. | |
so many jobs depend on being part of a large market in an increasingly | :37:14. | :37:24. | |
globalised world. I have got one more question for you on the locals. | :37:25. | :37:28. | |
We seem to have lost our connection with Leeds. What is the single most | :37:29. | :37:32. | |
important reason that people should vote for you in the local election? | :37:33. | :37:36. | |
Because taxpayers' money is just that, it does not belong to the | :37:37. | :37:41. | |
politicians, and we can do a lot more and get more for less with | :37:42. | :37:45. | |
taxpayers money. If you look at Conservative councils up and down | :37:46. | :37:48. | |
the country, most of them have not been raising council tax, they have | :37:49. | :37:51. | |
been getting more for less, and that is what people deserve. We will | :37:52. | :37:56. | |
produce the maximum amount possible of affordable housing to meet the | :37:57. | :38:00. | |
housing needs of Britain, instead of the richest minority having flats | :38:01. | :38:03. | |
and houses that nobody can afford. We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I | :38:04. | :38:14. | |
can answer for him. I will do it - he would certainly say, vote Labour. | :38:15. | :38:17. | |
You are watching The Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers | :38:18. | :38:23. | |
`` welcome to a special European Sunday Politics Scotland. | :38:24. | :38:55. | |
`` welcome to a special European election edition. We will be | :38:56. | :39:00. | |
from four of the candidates standing in the poll. Cornwall is as poor now | :39:01. | :39:03. | |
as it was what first attracted the highest level European fundhng over | :39:04. | :39:13. | |
a decade ago. Since the decline of the traditional | :39:14. | :39:17. | |
industries, the economy has struggled, and despite around ? | :39:18. | :39:24. | |
million since the 90s, it rdmains the poorest region in the UK. This | :39:25. | :39:27. | |
building is partly funded by European Monday `` money. Ldt's go | :39:28. | :39:34. | |
in and find out what people here think the European Union has done | :39:35. | :39:36. | |
for Cornwall. The European Tnion think the European Union has done | :39:37. | :39:40. | |
for Cornwall. The European Union has been good for Cornwall, it was | :39:41. | :39:45. | |
unanimous, and it has been crucial to staying local. I'd doubt very | :39:46. | :39:48. | |
much if we would have studidd to staying local. I'd doubt very | :39:49. | :39:50. | |
much if we would have studied `` I doubt very much we would have had | :39:51. | :39:53. | |
anywhere near the success. Think we would have had to move to London or | :39:54. | :39:59. | |
another part of Europe. The stamp of European Union aid is a familiar | :40:00. | :40:04. | |
sight across Cornwall. The Eden Project, superfast broadband, but | :40:05. | :40:08. | |
with the county still unable Project, superfast broadband, but | :40:09. | :40:09. | |
with the county still unabld to Project, superfast broadband, but | :40:10. | :40:10. | |
with the county still unable to go it alone, some ask if the h`nd`outs | :40:11. | :40:14. | |
are really working. At the start of the investment programme in 199 , | :40:15. | :40:19. | |
the economic performance of Cornwall was measured at 66% of the European | :40:20. | :40:21. | |
was measured at 66% of the Duropean average. In 2011, it was at 64%. | :40:22. | :40:25. | |
average. In 2011, it was at 64% Here, where there is some of the | :40:26. | :40:29. | |
highest information levels hn Cornwall, the benefit of the | :40:30. | :40:31. | |
Cornwall, the benefit of thd millions is parlous `` is far less | :40:32. | :40:36. | |
millions is parlous `` is f`r less positive. We do not get superfast | :40:37. | :40:39. | |
positive. We do not get supdrfast broadband down our way. A way | :40:40. | :40:42. | |
positive. We do not get superfast broadband down our way. A w`y to | :40:43. | :40:43. | |
broadband down our way. A way to improve Cornwall is more jobs. It is | :40:44. | :40:50. | |
hoped the next funding round of ?500 million will build on investment | :40:51. | :40:54. | |
ready made to create more jobs, and both sides of the in or out debate | :40:55. | :40:57. | |
are also hoping this will bd the are also hoping this will bd the | :40:58. | :41:00. | |
last slice of European aid that has to come Cornwall's way. | :41:01. | :41:06. | |
With me to discuss this further our four candidates hoping for your vote | :41:07. | :41:07. | |
on Thursday. Julia Reed frol the four candidates hoping for xour vote | :41:08. | :41:14. | |
on Thursday. Julia Reed from the UK on Thursday. Julia Reed from the UK | :41:15. | :41:15. | |
Independence Party, James Krakouer from the Conservatives, and Clare | :41:16. | :41:22. | |
Moody from Labour. The Lib Dems are seen as the most European | :41:23. | :41:27. | |
enthusiastic Hardy. We are now to the third charge of top`levdl | :41:28. | :41:33. | |
European funding. You have to ask yourself, what would have happened | :41:34. | :41:36. | |
to Cornwall had that money not been coming from the European Unhon? Not | :41:37. | :41:42. | |
much has changed. It has. I've visited some businesses in Cornwall | :41:43. | :41:47. | |
and have been hugely impressed by their dynamism. Cornwall is on the | :41:48. | :41:50. | |
verge of taking off, partictlarly their dynamism. Cornwall is on the | :41:51. | :41:53. | |
verge of taking off, particularly in verge of taking off, particularly in | :41:54. | :41:54. | |
Green technologies. In an arm as amount of money has gone into the | :41:55. | :41:58. | |
combined universities of Cornwall. That is paying dividends in returns | :41:59. | :42:05. | |
from student to pay fees and of course the staff are also well | :42:06. | :42:06. | |
from student to pay fees and of course the staff are also wdll paid. | :42:07. | :42:08. | |
You are basically saying that course the staff are also well paid. | :42:09. | :42:10. | |
You are basically saying th`t none You are basically saying that none | :42:11. | :42:12. | |
of this money would have happened if UK Independence Party had pulled | :42:13. | :42:14. | |
of this money would have happened if UK Independence Party had ptlled us | :42:15. | :42:15. | |
UK Independence Party had pulled us out of Europe. So there is ` | :42:16. | :42:16. | |
UK Independence Party had ptlled us out of Europe. So there is a big | :42:17. | :42:16. | |
dividend from this. If we h`d out of Europe. So there is ` big | :42:17. | :42:18. | |
dividend from this. If we h`d not gone into the common market, we | :42:19. | :42:23. | |
would still have maintained control over our fishing limits, and UK | :42:24. | :42:33. | |
water has 60% of fish stocks and that has brought in a lot of money | :42:34. | :42:37. | |
into Cornwall, and although Cornwall debts development money, it is | :42:38. | :42:43. | |
matched funding, and we do not actually get a say in where that | :42:44. | :42:47. | |
goes. It is difficult to criticise things like high`speed broadband, or | :42:48. | :42:52. | |
the Eden project, the University for Cornwall. But for each pound that's | :42:53. | :42:58. | |
Cornwall gets, it has actually cost the UK government over ?2. If | :42:59. | :43:03. | |
Cornwall gets, it has actually cost the UK government over ?2. Hf we | :43:04. | :43:06. | |
were not paying that extra tom of the government could have put that | :43:07. | :43:14. | |
money straight into Cornwall, `` the extra money. The economy would be | :43:15. | :43:20. | |
far better if its connections with London were quicker than thdy | :43:21. | :43:23. | |
far better if its connections with London were quicker than they are | :43:24. | :43:23. | |
far better if its connections with London were quicker than thdy are at | :43:24. | :43:26. | |
the moment. Later presided over the first and second tranche of funding | :43:27. | :43:29. | |
in Cornwall. Would it have been better if we had invested | :43:30. | :43:35. | |
domestically? I have seen it since 2010 what would have happendd if we | :43:36. | :43:36. | |
2010 what would have happened if we had not have the European money in | :43:37. | :43:40. | |
Cornwall. We saw this after the storm damage, the impact of Cornwall | :43:41. | :43:46. | |
`` in Cornwall of that storl damage, and the councils still do not know | :43:47. | :43:49. | |
where they are going to get the funding, whether they are going to | :43:50. | :43:53. | |
get the funding, to repair that storm damage. What we have seen in | :43:54. | :43:56. | |
Cornwall is that it is lagging behind in its figures and the rest | :43:57. | :44:01. | |
of the country, and in the to thousands, once Gross got going | :44:02. | :44:08. | |
again, once he got the fundhng through... Your government in | :44:09. | :44:12. | |
through... Your government hn Westminster at the time could have | :44:13. | :44:14. | |
made this decision. They did make the decision to make sure that | :44:15. | :44:17. | |
Cornwall got the money. Clearly Cornwall got the money. Clearly | :44:18. | :44:22. | |
there is the match funding. But I repeat the point that, actu`lly | :44:23. | :44:28. | |
Cornwall gets left behind in Westminster decisions, and we have | :44:29. | :44:29. | |
seen that with the storm damage, seen that with the storm damage, | :44:30. | :44:33. | |
with the cutting funding from infrastructure projects likd | :44:34. | :44:35. | |
with the cutting funding from infrastructure projects like the | :44:36. | :44:35. | |
infrastructure projects likd the link Road further west in Cornwall. | :44:36. | :44:38. | |
I'd know one of your fellow candidates takes the view that it | :44:39. | :44:41. | |
would be better if we made all of would be better if we made `ll of | :44:42. | :44:45. | |
these decisions about funding in Britain, but Claire makes a good | :44:46. | :44:54. | |
point, doesn't she? It is an interesting point. Go back to | :44:55. | :44:57. | |
fisheries. The common fisheries policy controls 50% of the water | :44:58. | :45:02. | |
controls and we now have 10$, and it controls and we now have 10$, and it | :45:03. | :45:08. | |
is a big campaign policy of UKIP, but they abstained on this policy. | :45:09. | :45:15. | |
When it comes to regional ftnding, it has been hugely successful, | :45:16. | :45:17. | |
it has been hugely successftl, especially the amount that has gone | :45:18. | :45:19. | |
in and the smaller scale, like especially the amount that has gone | :45:20. | :45:23. | |
in and the smaller scale, lhke a in and the smaller scale, lhke a | :45:24. | :45:23. | |
road that was funded by EU money, road that was funded by EU loney, | :45:24. | :45:33. | |
and there are some good projects. Idling small`business red tape, but | :45:34. | :45:36. | |
Idling small`business red t`pe, but the regional development fund, which | :45:37. | :45:41. | |
put into a road network that is put into a road network that is | :45:42. | :45:46. | |
vastly underused, so the ond advantage of lessons to giving | :45:47. | :45:47. | |
vastly underused, so the one advantage of lessons to givhng money | :45:48. | :45:48. | |
advantage of lessons to giving money is that it would be controlling | :45:49. | :45:52. | |
directly where it goes, if ht goes to fishing projects `` efficient | :45:53. | :45:59. | |
projects. The point about the road, Westminster funding from that | :46:00. | :46:00. | |
projects. The point about the road, Westminster funding from th`t has | :46:01. | :46:03. | |
been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You can | :46:04. | :46:07. | |
been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You c`n go | :46:08. | :46:07. | |
been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You can go to | :46:08. | :46:10. | |
the next topic that we are going to discuss, immigration, which is going | :46:11. | :46:14. | |
to be about transitional controls. We need to move towards that. But | :46:15. | :46:20. | |
before that, I would like to speak to the lead candidate `` I spoke to | :46:21. | :46:23. | |
the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It is | :46:24. | :46:24. | |
the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It hs a | :46:25. | :46:25. | |
the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It is a bit | :46:26. | :46:30. | |
of a mistake. A lot of what we get from Europe is priceless, and one of | :46:31. | :46:33. | |
the most priceless thing to get is the piece that Europe is guaranteed, | :46:34. | :46:34. | |
the piece that Europe is gu`ranteed, so it doesn't make sense to divide | :46:35. | :46:37. | |
what we get from Europe and the prices on it. We are strongly in | :46:38. | :46:41. | |
favour of the convergence ftnding favour of the convergence funding | :46:42. | :46:43. | |
and we think generally our membership of the UKIP has brought | :46:44. | :46:49. | |
us a lot of benefits. There are three other parties standing on the | :46:50. | :46:54. | |
Southwest. The British National Party, the Independence party and | :46:55. | :46:56. | |
the English Democrats. There Party, the Independence party and | :46:57. | :46:57. | |
the English Democrats. Therd is Party, the Independence party and | :46:58. | :46:57. | |
the English Democrats. There is a the English Democrats. There is a | :46:58. | :46:58. | |
full list on the BBC websitd. the English Democrats. Therd is a | :46:59. | :46:59. | |
full list on the BBC website. The issue of immigration from the | :47:00. | :47:04. | |
European Union has been pushed to the top of the agenda by one party, | :47:05. | :47:06. | |
the top of the agenda by ond party, Julia's, and this campaign. But how | :47:07. | :47:10. | |
many immigrants are actually Julia's, and this campaign. But how | :47:11. | :47:12. | |
many immigrants are actuallx coming many immigrants are actually coming | :47:13. | :47:12. | |
and whether their presence hs a many immigrants are actuallx coming | :47:13. | :47:14. | |
and whether their presence is a good or bad thing is hotly disputed. | :47:15. | :47:22. | |
They are big, they are bold, and the message seems to be heading home on | :47:23. | :47:27. | |
the streets of Plymouth. Foreigners getting all the jobs. Not much for | :47:28. | :47:32. | |
getting all the jobs. Not mtch for the British. An unlimited following | :47:33. | :47:38. | |
implement. This woman has bden the British. An unlimited following | :47:39. | :47:39. | |
implement. This woman has been out implement. This woman has bden out | :47:40. | :47:42. | |
of work for two years. I am not racist but they are taking over. | :47:43. | :47:44. | |
of work for two years. I am not racist but they are taking over It | :47:45. | :47:44. | |
racist but they are taking over. It is full of foreigners. They have | :47:45. | :47:51. | |
shops here, Polish shops in that. It is hard to get a job. It is the | :47:52. | :47:57. | |
limit is home to around 9000 people born in other parts of the EU. That | :47:58. | :48:00. | |
born in other parts of the DU. That is just every 3% of the city's | :48:01. | :48:02. | |
population. There are a dozdn is just every 3% of the citx's | :48:03. | :48:05. | |
population. There are a dozen shops population. There are a dozen shops | :48:06. | :48:06. | |
in the city catering for East European tastes. A jar of both Gary | :48:07. | :48:15. | |
and pickled vegetables. A Romanian couple of things this shop `t the | :48:16. | :48:24. | |
end of last year. We decided to open the shop, thinking on the 1st of | :48:25. | :48:28. | |
January, work restrictions would lift and more people would come, but | :48:29. | :48:30. | |
lift and more people would come but there were already enough people | :48:31. | :48:31. | |
there were already enough pdople here for the business to be viable. | :48:32. | :48:38. | |
Since those restrictions on workers from Bulgaria and Romania wdre | :48:39. | :48:39. | |
Since those restrictions on workers from Bulgaria and Romania were eased | :48:40. | :48:42. | |
in January, 1000 you are workers have arrived in the UK. Not quite | :48:43. | :48:49. | |
what EU predicted but it's lead up is not budging. They don't appear to | :48:50. | :48:56. | |
have increased since then. But from the rest of Europe, the numbers are | :48:57. | :49:02. | |
going up rapidly. We have no control. 485 million people have the | :49:03. | :49:06. | |
ability to come and work in person. For one of his workers living in | :49:07. | :49:10. | |
Britain, signs are scary. ILO For one of his workers living in | :49:11. | :49:13. | |
Britain, signs are scary. ILO pappy. I have not done anything wrong here. | :49:14. | :49:15. | |
This woman came here `` I al not This woman came here `` I al not | :49:16. | :49:21. | |
happy. This woman came here a few years ago and works minimum wage in | :49:22. | :49:26. | |
a care home. I did not take anyone's job. No`one wanted to take | :49:27. | :49:31. | |
it. When you go to the job centre, there are thousands of jobs. The | :49:32. | :49:35. | |
people do not want to work. I did not take an idea not feel guilty. | :49:36. | :49:42. | |
Research from Oxford University suggests most immigrants are in | :49:43. | :49:45. | |
suggests most immigrants ard in work, with less than 5% claiming job | :49:46. | :49:47. | |
seeker a lower ones. Not evdryone work, with less than 5% clahming job | :49:48. | :49:49. | |
seeker a lower ones. Not everyone in seeker a lower ones. Not evdryone in | :49:50. | :49:53. | |
the blaze immigrants. I think the migrants are coming here and doing | :49:54. | :49:54. | |
jobs that people in this country jobs that people in this country | :49:55. | :49:59. | |
will not do anymore. They would rather claim their benefits than | :50:00. | :50:02. | |
actually work. Compared to other parts of the UK, the immigr`tion | :50:03. | :50:04. | |
parts of the UK, the immigration experience so far in the Sotthwest | :50:05. | :50:09. | |
is tiny. We will get a complete breakdown of what is happening | :50:10. | :50:11. | |
is tiny. We will get a complete breakdown of what is happenhng when | :50:12. | :50:12. | |
the official immigration figures are released on Thursday. | :50:13. | :50:18. | |
Here is the Green Party's leader. released on Thursday. | :50:19. | :50:26. | |
Here is the Green Party's ldader. I Here is the Green Party's ldader. I | :50:27. | :50:26. | |
think the way his argument is Here is the Green Party's leader. I | :50:27. | :50:27. | |
think the way his argument hs being think the way his argument is being | :50:28. | :50:30. | |
used is disgraceful and sochally used is disgraceful and socially | :50:31. | :50:33. | |
destructive. `` this argument. British people are basically | :50:34. | :50:34. | |
British people are basicallx tolerant. I think what lies behind | :50:35. | :50:40. | |
it is the fact that when a lot of much poorer countries were brought | :50:41. | :50:44. | |
into Europe, there was no attempt to equalize the way in which we worked | :50:45. | :50:47. | |
across the European Union, so left`wing governments left this | :50:48. | :50:52. | |
country quite honourable, and we might look at greater equality | :50:53. | :50:55. | |
across Europe in terms of w`ges and across Europe in terms of w`ges and | :50:56. | :50:58. | |
conditions of employment so there is much less pressure for people to | :50:59. | :50:59. | |
move. We have four parties `re move. We have four parties `re | :51:00. | :51:06. | |
presented here in the studio. I want to come to you, Julia. You have made | :51:07. | :51:12. | |
this the centrepiece of your campaign, and it seems to bd | :51:13. | :51:14. | |
this the centrepiece of your campaign, and it seems to be a | :51:15. | :51:17. | |
numbers game for you, the htge influx of all variants and | :51:18. | :51:22. | |
Romanians. `` Bulgarians. In reality, the scaremongering is a | :51:23. | :51:31. | |
gross exaggeration, isn't it? We have not said that. The poster says | :51:32. | :51:36. | |
that pleasantly. As far as the Romanian and Bulgarian immigration | :51:37. | :51:40. | |
is concerned, although it is down for thousands of sharper 4000 on the | :51:41. | :51:47. | |
previous three`month tomatods up 29,000 the `` although it was down | :51:48. | :51:51. | |
4000 the previous three`month period, it was actually up. In | :51:52. | :51:58. | |
September 2013, over 200,000 people will stop at the time that the | :51:59. | :52:04. | |
countries were able to come and work here, an economist actually says | :52:05. | :52:09. | |
there is no shortage of workers are skills. There was a shortage of | :52:10. | :52:10. | |
skills. There was a shortagd of people prepared to work long hours | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
for very little money, and the jobs that a lot of the immigrants are | :52:16. | :52:19. | |
taking, a lot of our people can t afford to live on them. The point | :52:20. | :52:21. | |
is, these quite specific predictions is, these quite specific predictions | :52:22. | :52:26. | |
you have made about numbers have been proven wrong. If you say that | :52:27. | :52:30. | |
this freedom of movement in the European Union, a lot of people | :52:31. | :52:35. | |
would say, that is OK, but did he say 26 million people are going to | :52:36. | :52:38. | |
come here and take our jobs and live on our benefits, they are going to | :52:39. | :52:42. | |
be worried. It matters whether that is true or not. A lot of the | :52:43. | :52:44. | |
be worried. It matters whether that is true or not. A lot of thd jobs | :52:45. | :52:48. | |
available in this country... What about these numbers? You said 26 | :52:49. | :52:50. | |
about these numbers? You sahd 2 million people want to come to | :52:51. | :52:55. | |
Britain. There are 26 million people unemployed currently in the EU. | :52:56. | :52:59. | |
Through the European jobs portal, they can apply for jobs that are not | :53:00. | :53:03. | |
even advertised in this country and the EU will pay them money. Will | :53:04. | :53:14. | |
they take the jobs in care homes? Most of these people are working on | :53:15. | :53:19. | |
the minimum wage or less, and when you realise that's 20% of pdople | :53:20. | :53:23. | |
the minimum wage or less, and when you realise that's 20% of people in | :53:24. | :53:23. | |
you realise that's 20% of pdople in work are in work benefits because | :53:24. | :53:25. | |
work are in work benefits bdcause they cannot earn enough to live on, | :53:26. | :53:30. | |
this is a problem, so when they say that British people do not want to | :53:31. | :53:34. | |
do these jobs, and lots of cases, it is because they can't afford to take | :53:35. | :53:35. | |
those jobs. Clare Moody frol is because they can't afford to take | :53:36. | :53:40. | |
those jobs. Clare Moody from Labour, if that is true, that seems very | :53:41. | :53:46. | |
unfair, doesn't it? I am interested that Julia raises those issues, | :53:47. | :53:49. | |
because they are very different from the ones that appear to be ones | :53:50. | :53:53. | |
raised on the posters, and what I would say is that Labour has the | :53:54. | :53:58. | |
answers to those issues in terms of, for example, agencies advertising | :53:59. | :54:05. | |
abroad to bring people just into jobs in the UK from abroad, and we | :54:06. | :54:06. | |
would stop that from happenhng jobs in the UK from abroad, and we | :54:07. | :54:08. | |
would stop that from happening so would stop that from happenhng so | :54:09. | :54:10. | |
that jobs would be equally advertised in this country as | :54:11. | :54:13. | |
that jobs would be equally advertised in this country `s they | :54:14. | :54:13. | |
advertised in this country as they are overseas. Indeed, we have | :54:14. | :54:15. | |
policies to promote the living wage. policies to promote the livhng wage. | :54:16. | :54:18. | |
I am very concerned about the suppression of wages in the | :54:19. | :54:22. | |
development of the hourglass economy, where you have numerous | :54:23. | :54:27. | |
jobs that are low`paid and then completely separate, higher skilled, | :54:28. | :54:34. | |
higher paid work, and we nedd more connection. So these are serious | :54:35. | :54:41. | |
issues that Julia is raising? The issues about wages, I am not sure | :54:42. | :54:44. | |
they are entirely linked to immigration, the point about | :54:45. | :54:49. | |
agencies, we have made that point. It is actually a more structural | :54:50. | :54:52. | |
point around the economy and one that I believe we have to address | :54:53. | :54:55. | |
and that the Labour Party h`s certainly raised policies over. | :54:56. | :55:00. | |
James, the present Conservative government has set itself a very | :55:01. | :55:03. | |
ambitious target to bring immigration down. It is feeling | :55:04. | :55:10. | |
pretty dismally, isn't it? `` sailing. The UK economy is the | :55:11. | :55:14. | |
fastest growing in the G7 economies, and if you remember the European | :55:15. | :55:20. | |
Union, it you would had to a Union, it you would had to ` | :55:21. | :55:24. | |
prosperous country rather than not, and before the Eastern bloc came in | :55:25. | :55:30. | |
in 2004, immigration was an issue, because the countries that were in | :55:31. | :55:33. | |
were of a similar economic standing, whereas as soon as he got dhfferent | :55:34. | :55:35. | |
levels, there is going to be whereas as soon as he got different | :55:36. | :55:38. | |
levels, there is going to bd a new levels, there is going to bd a new | :55:39. | :55:41. | |
from east to west. It is a problem if you are trying to have | :55:42. | :55:52. | |
transitional controls. This has been not to the UKIP, and EU havd two | :55:53. | :55:54. | |
things of the election campaign, things of the election camp`ign | :55:55. | :55:56. | |
they have highlighted this as things of the election campaign, | :55:57. | :56:01. | |
they have highlighted this as a referendum election when it is not, | :56:02. | :56:04. | |
and they will never be able to have the power to offer a referendum | :56:05. | :56:07. | |
Nigel Farage is the only member Nigel Farage is the only member | :56:08. | :56:14. | |
anyone can name. They are not going to have that. It is also creating an | :56:15. | :56:20. | |
atmosphere of hatred and it is not. It is a very tolerant society. | :56:21. | :56:27. | |
Workers will come here and then expect... They do have forehgn | :56:28. | :56:32. | |
expect... They do have foreign workers but they are working long | :56:33. | :56:37. | |
hours on low wages, and the sad thing is, British people do not want | :56:38. | :56:41. | |
to do it, because you can claim benefits. You want people to come | :56:42. | :56:46. | |
here who are going to work and contribution to society. Yot | :56:47. | :56:47. | |
here who are going to work `nd contribution to society. You don't | :56:48. | :56:47. | |
contribution to society. Yot don't want people coming here and doing | :56:48. | :56:51. | |
nothing. Putting that points to Julia, he said it is creating an | :56:52. | :56:57. | |
atmosphere of hatred `` you said it was creating an atmosphere of | :56:58. | :57:01. | |
hatred? It is not about pulling the drawbridge up. The reality is, | :57:02. | :57:05. | |
hatred? It is not about pulling the drawbridge up. The reality hs, the | :57:06. | :57:05. | |
right people, the right moments drawbridge up. The reality is, the | :57:06. | :57:08. | |
right people, the right momdnts on right people, the right moments on | :57:09. | :57:10. | |
the Duke `` migrants, Duke contributes to our country. We want | :57:11. | :57:20. | |
a points `based system similar to what they have in Australia. At the | :57:21. | :57:25. | |
moment, because we have to have so many people come from Eastern | :57:26. | :57:32. | |
Europe, we have no control, it limits the number of people that we | :57:33. | :57:33. | |
can take from New Zealand, India limits the number of people that we | :57:34. | :57:35. | |
can take from New Zealand, Hndia and can take from New Zealand, Hndia and | :57:36. | :57:41. | |
Pakistan, so in actual fact, the `` so in actual fact... So you are | :57:42. | :57:47. | |
using Australia as an example? We want a points `based system. You can | :57:48. | :57:50. | |
just say what you want. I can want a points `based system. You can | :57:51. | :57:53. | |
just say what you want. I can say, I am standing today for no income tax | :57:54. | :57:57. | |
and everyone should pay no dual duty. I would be very popular. What | :57:58. | :58:04. | |
would I'd be able to do it? The reality is, the number of people | :58:05. | :58:07. | |
coming from the rest of the European Union into the UK is on the rise, | :58:08. | :58:12. | |
isn't it? That is concerning some people. I've find it sad that UKIP | :58:13. | :58:21. | |
have been blamed. As other people have said, we are up very tolerant | :58:22. | :58:27. | |
nation, and a considerable number of Britons are working and living in | :58:28. | :58:31. | |
Europe. What would you say to the people in the film who clearly are | :58:32. | :58:32. | |
concerned about their emploxment concerned about their employment | :58:33. | :58:38. | |
prospects? I come from a background in farming. It is not a question of | :58:39. | :58:41. | |
just income. There are not many just income. There are not many | :58:42. | :58:44. | |
British evil who want to go out and do hard manual work on a farm, `` | :58:45. | :58:50. | |
British people who want to go out and do hard manual work on ` farm. | :58:51. | :58:54. | |
and do hard manual work on a farm. It is not just a question of wages, | :58:55. | :58:59. | |
it is a question of willingness to work, and the immigrants have shown | :59:00. | :59:03. | |
that in bucketful, really. But if you are in a country with a | :59:04. | :59:09. | |
struggling economy, whether it is southern Europe or Eastern Europe, | :59:10. | :59:10. | |
southern Europe or Eastern Durope, you are likely to want to meet | :59:11. | :59:12. | |
you are likely to want to mdet summer which is more economically | :59:13. | :59:13. | |
summer which is more economhcally buoyant. Yes. The `` of move | :59:14. | :59:16. | |
buoyant. Yes. The `` of movd somewhere. The big attraction is | :59:17. | :59:21. | |
that we speak English. A lot of those people come here with the idea | :59:22. | :59:27. | |
of learning to speak English. It is a two`way street. At the molent it | :59:28. | :59:35. | |
is much more one way down the other. One of the problems we have in this | :59:36. | :59:37. | |
country is that we do not have good country is that we do not h`ve good | :59:38. | :59:41. | |
numbers about the numbers of people coming in and people going out. We | :59:42. | :59:45. | |
register everyone coming in but we don't have a good system for | :59:46. | :59:47. | |
counting people out, so we `ctually counting people out, so we `ctually | :59:48. | :59:51. | |
don't really know a lot of this data. We do know, Julia, that | :59:52. | :59:58. | |
actually, there are as many British people living and working elsewhere | :59:59. | :00:04. | |
in the EU as there are people from elsewhere in the temp two working in | :00:05. | :00:09. | |
Britain. It is about 2.2 million, but you are talking about British | :00:10. | :00:17. | |
people spreading all out through the other EU 27. Other countries like | :00:18. | :00:23. | |
Germany are popular destinations. It is not true that the UK takes | :00:24. | :00:27. | |
everybody from Eastern Europe. I am just saying, the equivalent, 2.2 | :00:28. | :00:35. | |
million migrants, and there are 2.2 million Britons living in the rest | :00:36. | :00:38. | |
of the European Union, but they are not all in one country. There are | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
about a million in Spain but a lot of those are retired and thdy | :00:43. | :00:44. | |
about a million in Spain but a lot of those are retired and they are | :00:45. | :00:44. | |
of those are retired and thdy are not taking jobs, and because their | :00:45. | :00:46. | |
not taking jobs, and becausd their pensions are paid from this country, | :00:47. | :00:49. | |
they are actually taking money into Spain. They are a benefit. I am not | :00:50. | :00:58. | |
saying that EU migrants are not 150,000 migrants in this country | :00:59. | :01:00. | |
150,000 migrants in this cotntry right now, they only pay a pound a | :01:01. | :01:03. | |
week because they are on such low wages. But they are using the health | :01:04. | :01:11. | |
service in Spain. In this rdgion, hugely dependent on the migrant | :01:12. | :01:14. | |
population, and the desire of Villy people in the UK that benefit | :01:15. | :01:16. | |
population, and the desire of Villy people in the UK that benefht from | :01:17. | :01:16. | |
people in the UK that benefit from that. 2006, changed `` Spain change | :01:17. | :01:23. | |
the law and you cannot get free health care over the age of 65. We | :01:24. | :01:26. | |
have to leave it thank you very much indeed. Back to | :01:27. | :01:27. | |
Andrew. Welcome back. Politicians always | :01:28. | :01:41. | |
insist in public that opinion polls do not matter. Even though their own | :01:42. | :01:46. | |
parties each spend a small fortune on private polling. If they take | :01:47. | :01:52. | |
them seriously, so do we! Let's take a closer | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
them seriously, so do we! Let's take votes might fall for the European | :01:58. | :01:57. | |
Parliament. votes might fall for the European | :01:58. | :02:02. | |
looked set to finish first. By April, UKIP had edged into the lead. | :02:03. | :02:08. | |
According to today's poles, Nigel Farage's party is either down into | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
place, or has soared ahead. Both cannot be right. It is a similar | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
picture for the general election. Labour's lead has been cut back by | :02:19. | :02:34. | |
the Tories. This is the most unpredictable general election in a | :02:35. | :02:35. | |
long time. It keeps us in a job! We long time. It keeps us in a job We | :02:36. | :02:41. | |
are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes. | :02:42. | :02:45. | |
Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the | :02:46. | :02:50. | |
European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is | :02:51. | :02:53. | |
going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of | :02:54. | :02:58. | |
the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten, | :03:10. | :03:12. | |
certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them | :03:13. | :03:14. | |
democratically, demographically, democratically, demographically | :03:15. | :03:21. | |
with the older age profile, who are going to vote. Another poll gives | :03:22. | :03:32. | |
them only a one-point lead, so, come the results coming out, you are | :03:33. | :03:35. | |
either going to look away ahead of your time or very stupid? | :03:36. | :03:38. | |
Absolutely. That is the job of pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. | :03:39. | :03:45. | |
Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, and we are hoping to be spot on on | :03:46. | :03:52. | |
Thursday. So you were spot on on voting intention in 2009? Yes. What | :03:53. | :04:03. | |
does the indications of what is now a four party system mean, does it | :04:04. | :04:12. | |
change the nature of your methods? It changes how we look at the polls, | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
how we look at what is going to happen as a result of the vote. | :04:19. | :04:23. | |
Predicting the number of seats is becoming more and more important and | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
more difficult to do, because distribution is becoming | :04:29. | :04:30. | |
fundamentally important. Because it is for parties? That's right. . Does | :04:31. | :04:38. | |
the polling give us any evidence to try to settle the matter of whether | :04:39. | :04:40. | |
UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We | :04:41. | :04:46. | |
know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the | :04:47. | :04:50. | |
Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single | :05:00. | :05:02. | |
establishment party should be worried, because the people voting | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment. | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class | :05:18. | :05:20. | |
Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the | :05:21. | :05:26. | |
establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues, | :05:32. | :05:37. | |
where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections, | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote | :05:48. | :05:55. | |
would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any | :05:56. | :05:58. | |
European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much | :05:59. | :06:02. | |
attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on | :06:17. | :06:20. | |
the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not | :06:21. | :06:26. | |
entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are | :06:27. | :06:33. | |
completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage | :06:38. | :06:42. | |
a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people | :06:43. | :06:43. | |
don't care. Instinctively, Nick, Britain, but still, most people | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
don't care. Instinctively, Nick you don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you | :06:48. | :06:48. | |
would think, if you are a UKIP photo, if you have made that choice, | :06:49. | :06:54. | |
then you would probably be more motivated to go and vote on | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
Thursday? I am sure that is right. Also, the publicity that Nigel | :07:00. | :07:04. | |
Farage has had. And also, as Catherine says, people are attracted | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
to UKIP because they are annoyed with the established parties. If you | :07:10. | :07:14. | |
have made that big decision to do it, then you will probably do it. | :07:15. | :07:18. | |
The really big question which we want to take out of these elections | :07:19. | :07:23. | |
is, how many people who have left the established parties, left the | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
Conservative Party, in these elections on Thursday, how many of | :07:28. | :07:31. | |
them will stick with UKIP and how many of them will go back? Nigel | :07:32. | :07:39. | |
Farage is very confident, he is saying that 60% of those certain to | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If that happens, it is a real problem | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
for Downing Street. Downing Street are basically saying that many | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
Tories will have a fling with UKIP but they will return to the marital | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
home next year. You do two sorts of polling, for the European elections, | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
and for the general election, which may be more relevant to the local | :08:02. | :08:04. | |
election voters, but what is the answer to his question? We do not | :08:05. | :08:11. | |
know at the moment. We when you ask people how likely they are to vote | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
in the same way, they are thinking that actually, I am going to vote in | :08:17. | :08:19. | |
exactly the same way at the general election, they are not going to say, | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
I am going to split my vote. I think the key point is, what happens in | :08:25. | :08:28. | |
the Euros. We have a fixed term parliament, which means momentum is | :08:29. | :08:32. | |
crucial. What comes out of the Euros will be a statement about how well | :08:33. | :08:35. | |
UKIP can last for the next year or UKIP can last for the next year, or | :08:36. | :08:40. | |
indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the | :08:41. | :08:45. | |
parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a | :08:51. | :08:55. | |
couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can | :08:56. | :09:10. | |
see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's | :09:14. | :09:19. | |
policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot | :09:29. | :09:35. | |
yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is | :09:36. | :09:43. | |
plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the | :09:44. | :09:47. | |
Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for | :09:54. | :09:59. | |
each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg | :10:00. | :10:07. | |
loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially | :10:08. | :10:10. | |
to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron. | :10:11. | :10:15. | |
I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two | :10:16. | :10:18. | |
prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the | :10:19. | :10:24. | |
leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive | :10:30. | :10:32. | |
proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg. | :10:33. | :10:37. | |
Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble | :10:38. | :10:42. | |
for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the | :10:43. | :10:46. | |
photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden | :10:47. | :10:51. | |
with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to | :10:52. | :10:57. | |
appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know | :11:02. | :11:05. | |
what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, | :11:06. | :11:10. | |
all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really | :11:20. | :11:22. | |
talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The | :11:36. | :11:43. | |
calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt | :11:44. | :11:45. | |
Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama, | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so | :12:01. | :12:02. | |
elected in 2008 after the crash so everything he did was about rescue. | :12:03. | :12:07. | |
The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power | :12:08. | :12:11. | |
when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison. | :12:12. | :12:14. | |
Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount - | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David | :12:20. | :12:25. | |
Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like | :12:32. | :12:37. | |
Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually, | :12:43. | :12:45. | |
the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable. | :12:51. | :12:56. | |
Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing | :12:57. | :13:02. | |
about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you | :13:08. | :13:12. | |
all go to the polls on Thursday There will be tonnes of election | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
coverage and results on the BBC Thursday night, Friday, and of | :13:17. | :13:20. | |
course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily | :13:21. | :13:23. | |
Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics. | :13:32. | :14:08. | |
The consultation on closure is supposed to last for 45 days | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
11 Yorkshire children have all been honoured for their courage... | :14:14. | :14:17. | |
The hospital's own report identified systemic failures.. | :14:18. | :14:20. | |
The South East was battered by hurricane-force winds... | :14:21. | :14:23. | |
..but I do not want to see inappropriate solar developments | :14:24. | :14:26. | |
'However you see the world, find the stories that matter to you.' | :14:27. | :14:31. | |
It's time to join the BBC's news teams where you are. | :14:32. | :14:35. |