18/05/2014 Sunday Politics South West

Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

campaign trail, he has been asking all the big

campaign trail, he has been asking A special European election debate.

I will be this week, a last look at the euro

elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's

32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got

all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it

is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local

elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are

the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some

say that these European and local elections will not be much of a

pointer to how the big one goes But pointer to how the big one goes. But

that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from

examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is

local elections and European Parliament elections.

These local results should be known by Friday. In the European

elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected

across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But

the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has

closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are

in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the

outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still

wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is

difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll

which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and

another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more

slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know,

but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months

ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the

Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's

share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment,

and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results,

whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be

Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down

from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one

year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a

significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be

worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all

have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are

saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is

Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly

resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and

incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one,

but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done,

to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland,

Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which

makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but

whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent

event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the

Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a

national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly

historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across

Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. --

populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely

ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general

election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but

they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works

fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four...

We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP.

She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an

earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what

does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I

think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been

around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European

elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are

looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 2015,

getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes

on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense

policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want

to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election. If

we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim.

You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the

stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and

members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least, I

would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You

could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around

for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you

had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17

Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either

arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition

we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist

sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of

that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I

certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who

have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even

putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions

or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the

BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any

other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something

loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party.

We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of

expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage,

who is a fantastic, charismatic leader. But believe me, there is a

huge amount of talent. When we get our MEPs into power after the

European elections, we will see many more of them I think on television

and radio and in the newspapers. more of them I think on television

and radio and in the newspapers We are not a one-man band. Who runs

your party? The party is run by Nigel Farage, our leader. But he

spends all his time running between television studios and in and out of

the pub! You would be amazed how much he does, and of course we have

a National Executive Committee, like the other parties. So who runs it?

The National Executive Committee, in conjunction with Nigel Farage, the

MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a joint effort. Your Local Government

Minister Stosur is, if you vote UKIP, you go on to pledge that your

councillors will not toe the party line, how does that work? -- your

local government manifesto says... On the main policies, they will toe

the party line, because that is obviously what people will be voting

for. It is no good putting forward a manifesto like the Lib Dems did on

2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive --

2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive - a

lot of policies at local government level, and those we will stick to.

But when it comes to individual, But when it comes to individual

local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a

school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best

interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any

party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.

People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their

party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote

to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a

road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road

map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.

Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but

there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There

is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that

detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.

We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong

position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade

deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What

would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for

back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade

agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the

European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975

involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do

not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply

concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew,

concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew it

would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it sounds like you are complaining that

we might have something which is better than 1975. I am just trying

to find out what it is! That sounds like positive to me. We will

negotiate a trade deal and all manner of issues, whatever is best

for the British people. We want our sovereignty back, we want our

country back. Would you be upset if a bunch of Rumanian men moved in

next door to you? Where I live, I am surrounded by one and two-bedroom

flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in next door to me, I would want to ask

questions. That is very different from say a Robinho family moving in

next door. I would think, are they being ripped off, are they up to no

good or are they perhaps being trafficked by a gang master? So I

think it would be of concern, and I do not think there is anything wrong

with that, it is a humanitarian approach. That would be different

from a family moving in who were learning to speak English, who

wanted to contribute to the British economy. Maybe if your boss is

watching, he will now have found out how to answer that question.

Now, what is more glamorous, 24 hours in the life of a

counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours in the life of Adam Fleming, on the

campaign trail? I will let you make up your own mind. So, it is eight

o'clock in the morning here in Westminster. Today's challenge is,

how much campaigning for the local and European elections can we fit

into 12 hours? See you back here at eight o'clock tonight. Wish me

luck. With my cameraman and producer, we went to Thurrock in

Essex first. I got a very, very warm welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They

have never had this much attention. One candidate's misdemeanour ends up

on the front page. But you have got Lib Dem candidates being convicted

of racially aggravated assault, and that was not on the front pages of

the newspapers. Houdini is fine but it must be applied evenly. Have you

had to sack Thurrock UKIP members for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh,

God, no. Next we head to meet a top Tory in a different area. We are

heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in traffic. We are going to miss

William Hague. We got there, just in time, to ask the really big

questions. David Cameron went to Nando De Colo last week, where are

you going to go for lunch? I do not even get time for lunch. I think

something in the back of the car. We will go down the street and see what

people have got to say. Even the Foreign Secretary has depressed the

flesh at election time? Even the Foreign Secretary meets real people.

The message William Hague impresses upon everyone he meets is that the

Tories are the only party offering a referendum on our membership of the

EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. I've got five minutes by the beach.

This is the best thing about elections, lunch. Do you want one?

This is the best thing about And chips are weirdly relevant at

our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which

our next stop - the Green Party about this vehicle? It runs from

chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was

boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just

hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft

their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who

live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed

Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls

lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who

is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're

flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right

place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning

as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said

the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If

he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not

forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40

minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for

something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home

for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy

elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack

Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens

used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went

wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs

and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these

elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party

calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making

poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have

made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the

left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative

vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I

met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane

exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond

issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned

about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the

Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price

bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the

same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline

greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs

and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our

economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has

sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one

planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by

renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on

days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It

is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a

smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to

supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to

work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and

we are losing opportunities. 50% of we are losing opportunities. 50 of

German renewable electricity is owned by communities and it stays

within communities, rather than the big six energy companies. So you

have still got to take the French nuclear power. What we need to

do... Nuclear is a dead technology, going down in the developed world.

At the moment the Government proposes the most expensive proposal

for Britain and yet the last two plans took 17 years to bring online,

way too slow for what we need now. We know what the Green council would

be like if you were to win more seats on Thursday because you run

Brighton. Your own Green MP joined strikers against the council, the

local Greens are at each other's throats, a council ridden with

factionalism, attempts to raise council tax to 5%, attempted coups

against the local Green leader by other Greens and you have had to

bring in mediators. If you look at the life of people in Brighton and

Hove, it has seen its visitor numbers go up by 50,000, it has

become the top seaside resort in Britain, we have seen GCSE results

going up significantly. These are the things affecting people's lives

in Brighton and Hove. 60% of Brighton and Hove people think life

is better and the Greens. We have a debate to be had from next year's

election and perhaps we can have that debate next year. But you hold

up Brighton as the way the city should be run? We have made huge

progress, we have found money to be brought into the city to improve

Green spaces. I was on the big ride in London yesterday, and we need to

change our roads so they worked the people as well as cars. Which side

of the picket line were you on in Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was

in London, travelling around as I do most days. From Penzance to

Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you.

Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you I'm

Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,

the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a

European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and

only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP

party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions

usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on

to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it

suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well

either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation

has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will

not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to

hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come

out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we

want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child

tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but

Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to

halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to

the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done

to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in

the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be

lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never

knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support

because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit

like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now

we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make

together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that

only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been

shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out

of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the

jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives

comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't

really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been

there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite

being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on

Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we

wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal

Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.

But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have

taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We

are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our

relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why

has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your

own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we

have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will

decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is

that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon

and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband

said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy

prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower

than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general

election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this

question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David

Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in

the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties

that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who

say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has

given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing

something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader

bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of

the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who

think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak

to people about it, people understand that we are better in

them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs

Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have

battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to

take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been

delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.

-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,

people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's

antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable

housing they need. We as a government have delivered more

affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties

earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out

that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in

2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly

half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher

or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions

of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I

would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the

deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now

have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people

employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say

that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We

need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are

the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any

change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think

like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree

with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply

would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the

workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now

privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the

coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level

since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got

a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies

which directly address the problems which people face. I think the

public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for

the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum We

to be in favour of a referendum? We are in favour, we voted for one we

are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next

time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the

relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.

We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.

We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying

in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall

transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for

this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to

leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but

partners with the Conservatives but we do not want to be distracted at

the moment by a referendum in the future in relation to Europe.

Because what we have done is built our own economy back. That has been

the priority. We do not want artificial priorities. The Tories

want an artificial date plucked out of the air for their own advantage.

We say, let's get on with being positive about being in Europe, and

many people on the doorstep absolutely understand that.

Yesterday, the Energy Minister said that he thought the party would be

willing to campaign for a British withdrawal from the EU if there was

not a successful negotiation, a successful repatriation, do you

agree with that? First of all, I am very optimistic... I got that I am

going into these negotiations with confidence but Michael Fallon is one

of your ministerial colleagues, he said that if we cannot get a deal on

substantial repatriation, then the party should be willing to campaign

for a British withdrawal - do you agree? My view is that I am

confident we will get a deal, and then we will put it to the British

people. But you will have to take a line. If you do not get substantial

repatriations, will you side with Michael Fallon all with the Prime

Minister, who seems to want to stay in regardless? I may only have been

in politics for four years, but I am not going to ask that kind of

hypothetical question. Every question I ask is hypothetical, that

is the fascination of the programme! I go into these negotiations with

complete confidence. If you look at our track record, it suggests we

will be successful. Hilary Benn what is the difference between your

attitude and that of the Lib Dems towards a referendum? We have been

very clear that if it is proposed at sometime in the future, further

powers would be transferred, then, we would put that to the British

people in a referendum. That is the Lib Dem position. This is our

position, which I am planing to you. It would be an in-out referendum. We

would only agree to a transfer of powers if we thought that it was in

the interest of Britain. But we believe that Britain's place remains

and should remain in Europe, for economic reasons. But we also want

to see some changes in our relationship with Europe, and

electing Labour MEPs on Thursday will be a way of boosting that

argument. In what way is everything you have just said not entirely sell

my must with the Lib Dem position? I am not worried about that. --

entirely synonymous. It is the dividing line between us and UKIP,

because they somehow believe that Britain leaving the European Union

would be good for our economy. Truth is, it would be really bad, because

so many jobs depend on being part of a large market in an increasingly

globalised world. I have got one more question for you on the locals.

We seem to have lost our connection with Leeds. What is the single most

important reason that people should vote for you in the local election?

Because taxpayers' money is just that, it does not belong to the

politicians, and we can do a lot more and get more for less with

taxpayers money. If you look at Conservative councils up and down

the country, most of them have not been raising council tax, they have

been getting more for less, and that is what people deserve. We will

produce the maximum amount possible of affordable housing to meet the

housing needs of Britain, instead of the richest minority having flats

and houses that nobody can afford. We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I

can answer for him. I will do it - he would certainly say, vote Labour.

You are watching The Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

`` welcome to a special European Sunday Politics Scotland.

`` welcome to a special European election edition. We will be

from four of the candidates standing in the poll. Cornwall is as poor now

as it was what first attracted the highest level European fundhng over

a decade ago. Since the decline of the traditional

industries, the economy has struggled, and despite around ?

million since the 90s, it rdmains the poorest region in the UK. This

building is partly funded by European Monday `` money. Ldt's go

in and find out what people here think the European Union has done

for Cornwall. The European Tnion think the European Union has done

for Cornwall. The European Union has been good for Cornwall, it was

unanimous, and it has been crucial to staying local. I'd doubt very

much if we would have studidd to staying local. I'd doubt very

much if we would have studied `` I doubt very much we would have had

anywhere near the success. Think we would have had to move to London or

another part of Europe. The stamp of European Union aid is a familiar

sight across Cornwall. The Eden Project, superfast broadband, but

with the county still unable Project, superfast broadband, but

with the county still unabld to Project, superfast broadband, but

with the county still unable to go it alone, some ask if the h`nd`outs

are really working. At the start of the investment programme in 199 ,

the economic performance of Cornwall was measured at 66% of the European

was measured at 66% of the Duropean average. In 2011, it was at 64%.

average. In 2011, it was at 64% Here, where there is some of the

highest information levels hn Cornwall, the benefit of the

Cornwall, the benefit of thd millions is parlous `` is far less

millions is parlous `` is f`r less positive. We do not get superfast

positive. We do not get supdrfast broadband down our way. A way

positive. We do not get superfast broadband down our way. A w`y to

broadband down our way. A way to improve Cornwall is more jobs. It is

hoped the next funding round of ?500 million will build on investment

ready made to create more jobs, and both sides of the in or out debate

are also hoping this will bd the are also hoping this will bd the

last slice of European aid that has to come Cornwall's way.

With me to discuss this further our four candidates hoping for your vote

on Thursday. Julia Reed frol the four candidates hoping for xour vote

on Thursday. Julia Reed from the UK on Thursday. Julia Reed from the UK

Independence Party, James Krakouer from the Conservatives, and Clare

Moody from Labour. The Lib Dems are seen as the most European

enthusiastic Hardy. We are now to the third charge of top`levdl

European funding. You have to ask yourself, what would have happened

to Cornwall had that money not been coming from the European Unhon? Not

much has changed. It has. I've visited some businesses in Cornwall

and have been hugely impressed by their dynamism. Cornwall is on the

verge of taking off, partictlarly their dynamism. Cornwall is on the

verge of taking off, particularly in verge of taking off, particularly in

Green technologies. In an arm as amount of money has gone into the

combined universities of Cornwall. That is paying dividends in returns

from student to pay fees and of course the staff are also well

from student to pay fees and of course the staff are also wdll paid.

You are basically saying that course the staff are also well paid.

You are basically saying th`t none You are basically saying that none

of this money would have happened if UK Independence Party had pulled

of this money would have happened if UK Independence Party had ptlled us

UK Independence Party had pulled us out of Europe. So there is `

UK Independence Party had ptlled us out of Europe. So there is a big

dividend from this. If we h`d out of Europe. So there is ` big

dividend from this. If we h`d not gone into the common market, we

would still have maintained control over our fishing limits, and UK

water has 60% of fish stocks and that has brought in a lot of money

into Cornwall, and although Cornwall debts development money, it is

matched funding, and we do not actually get a say in where that

goes. It is difficult to criticise things like high`speed broadband, or

the Eden project, the University for Cornwall. But for each pound that's

Cornwall gets, it has actually cost the UK government over ?2. If

Cornwall gets, it has actually cost the UK government over ?2. Hf we

were not paying that extra tom of the government could have put that

money straight into Cornwall, `` the extra money. The economy would be

far better if its connections with London were quicker than thdy

far better if its connections with London were quicker than they are

far better if its connections with London were quicker than thdy are at

the moment. Later presided over the first and second tranche of funding

in Cornwall. Would it have been better if we had invested

domestically? I have seen it since 2010 what would have happendd if we

2010 what would have happened if we had not have the European money in

Cornwall. We saw this after the storm damage, the impact of Cornwall

`` in Cornwall of that storl damage, and the councils still do not know

where they are going to get the funding, whether they are going to

get the funding, to repair that storm damage. What we have seen in

Cornwall is that it is lagging behind in its figures and the rest

of the country, and in the to thousands, once Gross got going

again, once he got the fundhng through... Your government in

through... Your government hn Westminster at the time could have

made this decision. They did make the decision to make sure that

Cornwall got the money. Clearly Cornwall got the money. Clearly

there is the match funding. But I repeat the point that, actu`lly

Cornwall gets left behind in Westminster decisions, and we have

seen that with the storm damage, seen that with the storm damage,

with the cutting funding from infrastructure projects likd

with the cutting funding from infrastructure projects like the

infrastructure projects likd the link Road further west in Cornwall.

I'd know one of your fellow candidates takes the view that it

would be better if we made all of would be better if we made `ll of

these decisions about funding in Britain, but Claire makes a good

point, doesn't she? It is an interesting point. Go back to

fisheries. The common fisheries policy controls 50% of the water

controls and we now have 10$, and it controls and we now have 10$, and it

is a big campaign policy of UKIP, but they abstained on this policy.

When it comes to regional ftnding, it has been hugely successful,

it has been hugely successftl, especially the amount that has gone

in and the smaller scale, like especially the amount that has gone

in and the smaller scale, lhke a in and the smaller scale, lhke a

road that was funded by EU money, road that was funded by EU loney,

and there are some good projects. Idling small`business red tape, but

Idling small`business red t`pe, but the regional development fund, which

put into a road network that is put into a road network that is

vastly underused, so the ond advantage of lessons to giving

vastly underused, so the one advantage of lessons to givhng money

advantage of lessons to giving money is that it would be controlling

directly where it goes, if ht goes to fishing projects `` efficient

projects. The point about the road, Westminster funding from that

projects. The point about the road, Westminster funding from th`t has

been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You can

been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You c`n go

been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You can go to

the next topic that we are going to discuss, immigration, which is going

to be about transitional controls. We need to move towards that. But

before that, I would like to speak to the lead candidate `` I spoke to

the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It is

the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It hs a

the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It is a bit

of a mistake. A lot of what we get from Europe is priceless, and one of

the most priceless thing to get is the piece that Europe is guaranteed,

the piece that Europe is gu`ranteed, so it doesn't make sense to divide

what we get from Europe and the prices on it. We are strongly in

favour of the convergence ftnding favour of the convergence funding

and we think generally our membership of the UKIP has brought

us a lot of benefits. There are three other parties standing on the

Southwest. The British National Party, the Independence party and

the English Democrats. There Party, the Independence party and

the English Democrats. Therd is Party, the Independence party and

the English Democrats. There is a the English Democrats. There is a

full list on the BBC websitd. the English Democrats. Therd is a

full list on the BBC website. The issue of immigration from the

European Union has been pushed to the top of the agenda by one party,

the top of the agenda by ond party, Julia's, and this campaign. But how

many immigrants are actually Julia's, and this campaign. But how

many immigrants are actuallx coming many immigrants are actually coming

and whether their presence hs a many immigrants are actuallx coming

and whether their presence is a good or bad thing is hotly disputed.

They are big, they are bold, and the message seems to be heading home on

the streets of Plymouth. Foreigners getting all the jobs. Not much for

getting all the jobs. Not mtch for the British. An unlimited following

implement. This woman has bden the British. An unlimited following

implement. This woman has been out implement. This woman has bden out

of work for two years. I am not racist but they are taking over.

of work for two years. I am not racist but they are taking over It

racist but they are taking over. It is full of foreigners. They have

shops here, Polish shops in that. It is hard to get a job. It is the

limit is home to around 9000 people born in other parts of the EU. That

born in other parts of the DU. That is just every 3% of the city's

population. There are a dozdn is just every 3% of the citx's

population. There are a dozen shops population. There are a dozen shops

in the city catering for East European tastes. A jar of both Gary

and pickled vegetables. A Romanian couple of things this shop `t the

end of last year. We decided to open the shop, thinking on the 1st of

January, work restrictions would lift and more people would come, but

lift and more people would come but there were already enough people

there were already enough pdople here for the business to be viable.

Since those restrictions on workers from Bulgaria and Romania wdre

Since those restrictions on workers from Bulgaria and Romania were eased

in January, 1000 you are workers have arrived in the UK. Not quite

what EU predicted but it's lead up is not budging. They don't appear to

have increased since then. But from the rest of Europe, the numbers are

going up rapidly. We have no control. 485 million people have the

ability to come and work in person. For one of his workers living in

Britain, signs are scary. ILO For one of his workers living in

Britain, signs are scary. ILO pappy. I have not done anything wrong here.

This woman came here `` I al not This woman came here `` I al not

happy. This woman came here a few years ago and works minimum wage in

a care home. I did not take anyone's job. No`one wanted to take

it. When you go to the job centre, there are thousands of jobs. The

people do not want to work. I did not take an idea not feel guilty.

Research from Oxford University suggests most immigrants are in

suggests most immigrants ard in work, with less than 5% claiming job

seeker a lower ones. Not evdryone work, with less than 5% clahming job

seeker a lower ones. Not everyone in seeker a lower ones. Not evdryone in

the blaze immigrants. I think the migrants are coming here and doing

jobs that people in this country jobs that people in this country

will not do anymore. They would rather claim their benefits than

actually work. Compared to other parts of the UK, the immigr`tion

parts of the UK, the immigration experience so far in the Sotthwest

is tiny. We will get a complete breakdown of what is happening

is tiny. We will get a complete breakdown of what is happenhng when

the official immigration figures are released on Thursday.

Here is the Green Party's leader. released on Thursday.

Here is the Green Party's ldader. I Here is the Green Party's ldader. I

think the way his argument is Here is the Green Party's leader. I

think the way his argument hs being think the way his argument is being

used is disgraceful and sochally used is disgraceful and socially

destructive. `` this argument. British people are basically

British people are basicallx tolerant. I think what lies behind

it is the fact that when a lot of much poorer countries were brought

into Europe, there was no attempt to equalize the way in which we worked

across the European Union, so left`wing governments left this

country quite honourable, and we might look at greater equality

across Europe in terms of w`ges and across Europe in terms of w`ges and

conditions of employment so there is much less pressure for people to

move. We have four parties `re move. We have four parties `re

presented here in the studio. I want to come to you, Julia. You have made

this the centrepiece of your campaign, and it seems to bd

this the centrepiece of your campaign, and it seems to be a

numbers game for you, the htge influx of all variants and

Romanians. `` Bulgarians. In reality, the scaremongering is a

gross exaggeration, isn't it? We have not said that. The poster says

that pleasantly. As far as the Romanian and Bulgarian immigration

is concerned, although it is down for thousands of sharper 4000 on the

previous three`month tomatods up 29,000 the `` although it was down

4000 the previous three`month period, it was actually up. In

September 2013, over 200,000 people will stop at the time that the

countries were able to come and work here, an economist actually says

there is no shortage of workers are skills. There was a shortage of

skills. There was a shortagd of people prepared to work long hours

for very little money, and the jobs that a lot of the immigrants are

taking, a lot of our people can t afford to live on them. The point

is, these quite specific predictions is, these quite specific predictions

you have made about numbers have been proven wrong. If you say that

this freedom of movement in the European Union, a lot of people

would say, that is OK, but did he say 26 million people are going to

come here and take our jobs and live on our benefits, they are going to

be worried. It matters whether that is true or not. A lot of the

be worried. It matters whether that is true or not. A lot of thd jobs

available in this country... What about these numbers? You said 26

about these numbers? You sahd 2 million people want to come to

Britain. There are 26 million people unemployed currently in the EU.

Through the European jobs portal, they can apply for jobs that are not

even advertised in this country and the EU will pay them money. Will

they take the jobs in care homes? Most of these people are working on

the minimum wage or less, and when you realise that's 20% of pdople

the minimum wage or less, and when you realise that's 20% of people in

you realise that's 20% of pdople in work are in work benefits because

work are in work benefits bdcause they cannot earn enough to live on,

this is a problem, so when they say that British people do not want to

do these jobs, and lots of cases, it is because they can't afford to take

those jobs. Clare Moody frol is because they can't afford to take

those jobs. Clare Moody from Labour, if that is true, that seems very

unfair, doesn't it? I am interested that Julia raises those issues,

because they are very different from the ones that appear to be ones

raised on the posters, and what I would say is that Labour has the

answers to those issues in terms of, for example, agencies advertising

abroad to bring people just into jobs in the UK from abroad, and we

would stop that from happenhng jobs in the UK from abroad, and we

would stop that from happening so would stop that from happenhng so

that jobs would be equally advertised in this country as

that jobs would be equally advertised in this country `s they

advertised in this country as they are overseas. Indeed, we have

policies to promote the living wage. policies to promote the livhng wage.

I am very concerned about the suppression of wages in the

development of the hourglass economy, where you have numerous

jobs that are low`paid and then completely separate, higher skilled,

higher paid work, and we nedd more connection. So these are serious

issues that Julia is raising? The issues about wages, I am not sure

they are entirely linked to immigration, the point about

agencies, we have made that point. It is actually a more structural

point around the economy and one that I believe we have to address

and that the Labour Party h`s certainly raised policies over.

James, the present Conservative government has set itself a very

ambitious target to bring immigration down. It is feeling

pretty dismally, isn't it? `` sailing. The UK economy is the

fastest growing in the G7 economies, and if you remember the European

Union, it you would had to a Union, it you would had to `

prosperous country rather than not, and before the Eastern bloc came in

in 2004, immigration was an issue, because the countries that were in

were of a similar economic standing, whereas as soon as he got dhfferent

levels, there is going to be whereas as soon as he got different

levels, there is going to bd a new levels, there is going to bd a new

from east to west. It is a problem if you are trying to have

transitional controls. This has been not to the UKIP, and EU havd two

things of the election campaign, things of the election camp`ign

they have highlighted this as things of the election campaign,

they have highlighted this as a referendum election when it is not,

and they will never be able to have the power to offer a referendum

Nigel Farage is the only member Nigel Farage is the only member

anyone can name. They are not going to have that. It is also creating an

atmosphere of hatred and it is not. It is a very tolerant society.

Workers will come here and then expect... They do have forehgn

expect... They do have foreign workers but they are working long

hours on low wages, and the sad thing is, British people do not want

to do it, because you can claim benefits. You want people to come

here who are going to work and contribution to society. Yot

here who are going to work `nd contribution to society. You don't

contribution to society. Yot don't want people coming here and doing

nothing. Putting that points to Julia, he said it is creating an

atmosphere of hatred `` you said it was creating an atmosphere of

hatred? It is not about pulling the drawbridge up. The reality is,

hatred? It is not about pulling the drawbridge up. The reality hs, the

right people, the right moments drawbridge up. The reality is, the

right people, the right momdnts on right people, the right moments on

the Duke `` migrants, Duke contributes to our country. We want

a points `based system similar to what they have in Australia. At the

moment, because we have to have so many people come from Eastern

Europe, we have no control, it limits the number of people that we

can take from New Zealand, India limits the number of people that we

can take from New Zealand, Hndia and can take from New Zealand, Hndia and

Pakistan, so in actual fact, the `` so in actual fact... So you are

using Australia as an example? We want a points `based system. You can

just say what you want. I can want a points `based system. You can

just say what you want. I can say, I am standing today for no income tax

and everyone should pay no dual duty. I would be very popular. What

would I'd be able to do it? The reality is, the number of people

coming from the rest of the European Union into the UK is on the rise,

isn't it? That is concerning some people. I've find it sad that UKIP

have been blamed. As other people have said, we are up very tolerant

nation, and a considerable number of Britons are working and living in

Europe. What would you say to the people in the film who clearly are

concerned about their emploxment concerned about their employment

prospects? I come from a background in farming. It is not a question of

just income. There are not many just income. There are not many

British evil who want to go out and do hard manual work on a farm, ``

British people who want to go out and do hard manual work on ` farm.

and do hard manual work on a farm. It is not just a question of wages,

it is a question of willingness to work, and the immigrants have shown

that in bucketful, really. But if you are in a country with a

struggling economy, whether it is southern Europe or Eastern Europe,

southern Europe or Eastern Durope, you are likely to want to meet

you are likely to want to mdet summer which is more economically

summer which is more economhcally buoyant. Yes. The `` of move

buoyant. Yes. The `` of movd somewhere. The big attraction is

that we speak English. A lot of those people come here with the idea

of learning to speak English. It is a two`way street. At the molent it

is much more one way down the other. One of the problems we have in this

country is that we do not have good country is that we do not h`ve good

numbers about the numbers of people coming in and people going out. We

register everyone coming in but we don't have a good system for

counting people out, so we `ctually counting people out, so we `ctually

don't really know a lot of this data. We do know, Julia, that

actually, there are as many British people living and working elsewhere

in the EU as there are people from elsewhere in the temp two working in

Britain. It is about 2.2 million, but you are talking about British

people spreading all out through the other EU 27. Other countries like

Germany are popular destinations. It is not true that the UK takes

everybody from Eastern Europe. I am just saying, the equivalent, 2.2

million migrants, and there are 2.2 million Britons living in the rest

of the European Union, but they are not all in one country. There are

about a million in Spain but a lot of those are retired and thdy

about a million in Spain but a lot of those are retired and they are

of those are retired and thdy are not taking jobs, and because their

not taking jobs, and becausd their pensions are paid from this country,

they are actually taking money into Spain. They are a benefit. I am not

saying that EU migrants are not 150,000 migrants in this country

150,000 migrants in this cotntry right now, they only pay a pound a

week because they are on such low wages. But they are using the health

service in Spain. In this rdgion, hugely dependent on the migrant

population, and the desire of Villy people in the UK that benefit

population, and the desire of Villy people in the UK that benefht from

people in the UK that benefit from that. 2006, changed `` Spain change

the law and you cannot get free health care over the age of 65. We

have to leave it thank you very much indeed. Back to

Andrew. Welcome back. Politicians always

insist in public that opinion polls do not matter. Even though their own

parties each spend a small fortune on private polling. If they take

them seriously, so do we! Let's take a closer

them seriously, so do we! Let's take votes might fall for the European

Parliament. votes might fall for the European

looked set to finish first. By April, UKIP had edged into the lead.

According to today's poles, Nigel Farage's party is either down into

place, or has soared ahead. Both cannot be right. It is a similar

picture for the general election. Labour's lead has been cut back by

the Tories. This is the most unpredictable general election in a

long time. It keeps us in a job! We long time. It keeps us in a job We

are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.

Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the

European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is

going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of

the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more

than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are

doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,

certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them

democratically, demographically, democratically, demographically

with the older age profile, who are going to vote. Another poll gives

them only a one-point lead, so, come the results coming out, you are

either going to look away ahead of your time or very stupid?

Absolutely. That is the job of pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong.

Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, and we are hoping to be spot on on

Thursday. So you were spot on on voting intention in 2009? Yes. What

does the indications of what is now a four party system mean, does it

change the nature of your methods? It changes how we look at the polls,

how we look at what is going to happen as a result of the vote.

Predicting the number of seats is becoming more and more important and

more difficult to do, because distribution is becoming

fundamentally important. Because it is for parties? That's right. . Does

the polling give us any evidence to try to settle the matter of whether

UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We

know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the

Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But

actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different

sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single

establishment party should be worried, because the people voting

for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.

They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of

them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class

Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the

establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who

are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,

where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are

representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,

where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote

would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any

European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much

attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that

they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic

of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would

otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on

the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not

entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are

completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to

think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage

a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people

don't care. Instinctively, Nick, Britain, but still, most people

don't care. Instinctively, Nick you don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you

would think, if you are a UKIP photo, if you have made that choice,

then you would probably be more motivated to go and vote on

Thursday? I am sure that is right. Also, the publicity that Nigel

Farage has had. And also, as Catherine says, people are attracted

to UKIP because they are annoyed with the established parties. If you

have made that big decision to do it, then you will probably do it.

The really big question which we want to take out of these elections

is, how many people who have left the established parties, left the

Conservative Party, in these elections on Thursday, how many of

them will stick with UKIP and how many of them will go back? Nigel

Farage is very confident, he is saying that 60% of those certain to

vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If that happens, it is a real problem

for Downing Street. Downing Street are basically saying that many

Tories will have a fling with UKIP but they will return to the marital

home next year. You do two sorts of polling, for the European elections,

and for the general election, which may be more relevant to the local

election voters, but what is the answer to his question? We do not

know at the moment. We when you ask people how likely they are to vote

in the same way, they are thinking that actually, I am going to vote in

exactly the same way at the general election, they are not going to say,

I am going to split my vote. I think the key point is, what happens in

the Euros. We have a fixed term parliament, which means momentum is

crucial. What comes out of the Euros will be a statement about how well

UKIP can last for the next year or UKIP can last for the next year, or

indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the

parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could

be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a

couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can

see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP

for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's

policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr

Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there

will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot

yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is

plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the

Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a

Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for

each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg

loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially

to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.

I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two

prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the

leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick

Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive

proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.

Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble

for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the

photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden

with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to

appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear

rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know

what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,

all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of

the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are

immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really

talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you

say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this

calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages

and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The

calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt

Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack

Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on

that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,

which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so

elected in 2008 after the crash so everything he did was about rescue.

The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power

when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison.

Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount -

Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David

Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that

matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like

Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who

you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually,

the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not

changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable.

Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing

about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to

use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you

all go to the polls on Thursday There will be tonnes of election

coverage and results on the BBC Thursday night, Friday, and of

course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily

Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next

Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it

is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics.

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