23/10/2016 Sunday Politics South West


23/10/2016

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There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next

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leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,

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This man might have something to say about that.

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Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.

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So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?

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The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane

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on the country's second city which has been in the hands of

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In the South West... from this key clash?

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Will fishermen get a better deal post-Brexit or will it get worse?

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And the delivery of rural broadband falls even further behind.

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one of the richest cities in the world. Should all private landlords

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be licensed to help tackle the squalor?

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And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

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panel in the business: Toby Young, Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn -

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The last leader was in the job a mere 18 days before she decided

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The favourite to succeed her then quit the party after a now infamous

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Ukip's biggest donor says the party is at "breaking point".

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This morning, the former Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans,

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announced that she would be running for the leadership.

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I've thought long and hard about this leadership bid,

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and one of the reasons I've perhaps delayed announcing it is

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because I wanted to be absolutely sure that I had the support

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And I can confirm that I have more than enough signatures

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on the nomination form already to be able to go forward.

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Let's not forget that 3,000 people signed a petition in support of me

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I know head office was besieged with letters in support.

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I would not be doing this if I didn't have the backing

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of our members, because our members are the most important

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Well, Paul Nuttall was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years

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and plenty of people saw him as a leader-in-waiting.

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Let's ask the man himself - Paul Nuttall joins me now.

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Yes. I've made the decision that I'm going to put my name forward to be

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the next leader of Ukip. I have huge support across the country, not only

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amongst people at the top of the party in Westminster and with the

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MEPs, but also the grassroots. I want to be the unity candidate. Ukip

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needs to come together. I'm not going to gild the lily. Ukip is

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looking over a political cliff at the moment. It will either step four

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step back, and I want to tell us to step backwards. You say it faces an

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ex-distension or threat, which means it's possible it has no future at

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all. Students of political history know that political parties take a

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long time to get going. They can disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is

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facing an existential crisis. What happened over the summer has put us

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on a... We could be on a spiral that we can't get off. But I believe I am

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the man to bring the factions together, to create unity within the

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party, and to build on the structure and get us ready for the common

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challenges. Why didn't you stand last time? Because I have spent the

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last four or five years of my life travelling around the country. I

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have done more Ukip meetings than anybody else, spending a lot of time

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away from home. With Brexit, I felt that my job and Nigel's job was done

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and we could hand over to the next generation. That doesn't seem to be

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the case, and maybe it's time for someone who is an old hand. I'm very

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experienced and I know the party inside out. Maybe it's time to step

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in and bring the party together You told the Liverpool Echo on the night

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of July that you didn't wish to take on Nigel Farage, you didn't want

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that to happen to your family and friends. What has changed? The party

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is facing an existential crisis and I want to make sure that Ukip is on

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the pitch to keep the ball into the open net we have in politics. We

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have a Conservative Party who is moving toward Brexit, but we have to

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be there too. Why would you be better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne

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would be an excellent candidate I thought the 2015 manifesto was the

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best out of all the political parties. I would be the best

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candidate because of my experience. I am not part of any faction within

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the party. Is she? I get on well with everybody, and I believe I

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could be the man to bring the party together. Do you get on with Iain

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Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is supporting one of your rivals? Yes,

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I get on well with him. He is able to choose whoever he wants to be the

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next leader of the party. After November 28, the leadership

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election, we all say, the past the past. It becomes Daisy row for the

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new leader. We forget all that has before and move on. You won the

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referendum. Mrs May is adopting some of your policies, like grammar

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schools. What is the point of Ukip these days? Twofold. We don't have

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Brexit. Mrs May said she would not invoke Article 50 until the end of

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March, and we don't know if that will happen. We need to ensure a

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strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit really does mean Brexit. We have a

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huge opportunity in working class communities where the Labour Party

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no longer represents them. I believe Ukip can become the voice of working

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people. If you were the leader, would Ukip be a bigger threat to

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Labour in the north or the Tories in the South? You save Labour in the

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north, and people often to make that mistake. There's working class

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communities right across the country is. There are working-class

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communities in Bristol just as in Newcastle. We are second in a

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number of northern seats, and southern seats as well, and I

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believe the party can move into these communities. It can only do so

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if Ukip is on the pitch, and I intend to make sure that's the case.

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I don't think we have portrayed a good image over the summer. Is that

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called British understatement? A bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to

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move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have to build a strong national Executive

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Committee. We need to ensure our branches are ready for the fight and

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concentrate on local elections. I've got the experience. I'm now throwing

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my hat into the ring, and I'm the only person who can keep Ukip in the

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game. What role would you give Nigel Farage, if any? I will be the

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candidate of compromise. I would see what Nigel wanted to do. Would you

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keep in the leader of the freedom and democracy group in the European

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Parliament? There would have to be compromise on both sides, and we

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would need to talk about it. I don't know what Nigel wants to do. Do you

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think his support, his association with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win

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female votes in this country? Personally, I would not have gone

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out and campaigned or said anything about Donald Trump, but I don't

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think Ukip has come out and backed Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I

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wouldn't have even spoken about the American election, because I think

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the two candidates are quite appalling. Some up for us. If you

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win, what would be the hallmark of your Ukip leadership? The first

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couple of months would be ensuring that Ukip unifies. Saying no to

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factions, bringing people together. Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of

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the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can move forward. If we don't unify

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Ukip will not be around for much longer. Thanks for being with us

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this morning. We won't have to wait too long

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to find out who Ukip's new leader will be -

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the winner will be announced Who would be the best leader for

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Ukip? I think the difference between the field a few weeks ago and today

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is that this field is a lot stronger. Whether it's Paul or

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Suzanne, I think... It is hard to say, with Aaron Banks and apparently

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Nigel Farage hacking another candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip

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to be a strong force in British politics. I think the fact there is

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a stronger field now is good news for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst

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nightmare in the north of England? It is. I think the personality

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difference and presentational difference is interesting. Suzanne

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Evans is going for the Conservative county vote. There's a lot to be

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taken there by Ukip. He would probably be more appealing to the

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Labour vote. It is interesting. At the moment, pollsters say that the

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Ukip vote splits pretty easily between Labour and Tory. But things

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always collapse. When they have made inroads into Tower Hamlets and

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Barking, they collapse, because they fight amongst each other so much.

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But not always with fists! Does Ukip have a future? And who would best

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secure that future? It does for at least two years, until we Brexit. We

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have to believe that that will happen. That was an impressive pitch

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there from Paul, certainly as the unity candidate, after the car crash

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we have seen on TV screens this morning. But it doesn't go beyond

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May 20 19. What then? There is no point being called the United

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Kingdom Independence party any longer. What will happen after May

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2019? If you want to hoover up votes of the back of Brexit, you need to

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start looking further ahead than two years. The person who wins that

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leadership contest is the person who will sum that up the best. We shall

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see. In June 2014, the group which calls

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itself the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant captured Iraq's

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second city, Mosul. Later that month the group announced

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it was establishing a 'caliphate', or an Islamic state,

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on the territories it This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided

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by Iranian-backed Shia fighters Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air

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support, began the assault Then they spot a truck bomb

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from so-called Islamic State. They destroy it before

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it destroys them. These are the first steps

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in the battle for Mosul, the Northern Iraqi city IS has

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made its stronghold since 2014. Controlling the city of around

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2 million people means that they established governance,

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they establish a territorial base. This is what has obsessed everyone,

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because with a territorial base you are capable of doing more

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than if you are simply an insurgency movement in the fabric

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of another society. It's being billed as the biggest

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military operation in Iraq since the war in 2003, the biggest

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moment in the international effort Here is how the various forces

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are approaching the city. Heading to Mosul from the south

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the elite troops of the Iraqi army. Known as the Golden division,

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trained and accompanied From the North, a force made up

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of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga, Also from the South,

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a militia made up of Shia fighters who have been accused

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of human rights abuses. British planes have bombed outlying

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villages, reportedly guided in by British personnel

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on the ground. To the North West, a corridor

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has been left for some of the 3000 plus IS fighters,

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in theory an escape route which could limit the bloodshed

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when fighting starts in the city. We've had 4-5 days of battle

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and it's taking place in the outlying villages

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and there have been some successes and some failures,

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but the momentum is building. And the real question will be

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when the attackers get towards the city itself,

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how strong are the defences? It will crack but it might crack

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within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks. IS has fought back,

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on Friday they attack sites in the city of Kirkuk,

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including a power station. The United Nations believes hundreds

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of thousands of families have been rounded up

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as potential human shields. The battle could be bloody,

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but what about when it's over? The Shia militias, the Iraqi army,

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the Peshmerga guerrillas, some of the Turkish elements,

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they all want a share of the action. They are in Mosul, not

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for altruistic reasons. They are there because they want

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to be part of whatever happens next. The biggest issue is how the Sunni

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majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia militias which have

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helped to liberate them. ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis

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Humphrey went to Mosul If it all seems like something

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from the archive, when the Middle East went up in flames

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and was then carved up, it is because that is what is

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happening in Iraq right now. National identity has been cut

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across by other identities such And that means that putting together

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a so-called nation state again Almost certainly there will be

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a new form of Kurdish state, almost certainly in northern Iraq

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at the end of this crisis, and what is happening in Mosul

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is a microcosm of what is happening elsewhere across the Levant

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which is that it is melting down. Big questions, questions that

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come after the battle. The coalition forces are advancing

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but this is just the beginning. I'm joined now by the International

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Development Minister Rory Stewart. In a former life he was

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the coalition Deputy-Governor of two provinces in Southern Iraq following

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the Iraq intervention of 2003. Is there any doubt that at some

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stage Mosul will fall to the forces of Iraq and its allies? The first

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thing is that war is very uncertain and there are cliches about it being

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the graveyard of predictions and we don't want to make confident

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predictions but the basic structure is that there are 30,000 Iraqi

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forces outside and only a few thousand Daesh fighters inside and I

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would say it is overwhelmingly likely that the batter will one

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STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the Iraqi forces.

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June 2014 was a great success, they took a city of over in people and

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they created what they tried to create a million state of 7 million

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people, stretching across the Iraqi Syrian border, but since then they

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have lost territory quite rapidly. Now they are losing the outskirts of

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Mosul, and that is a fundamental blow. Islamic State is all about

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territory and holding state, that is what makes it different from

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Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that will be a cynic -- significant blow

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to their credibility. Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday's

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presidential debate that when Iraqi forces with their allies including

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the United Kingdom gain control of Mosul they should continue to press

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into Syria to take back Raqqa which is the de facto capital of the

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caliphate, what is left of it, do we want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into

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Syria? Very important question. Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from

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people on the Syrian side of the border and that is an important

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principle -- the lead. In the end of that enemy, Islamic State, is a

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common enemy for odd members of the coalition including the Iraqi

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government. -- all members. There is likely to be a humanitarian crisis

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especially if it ends up with street to street fighting and IS are

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difficult to dislodge what are we doing about that? We are doing very

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detailed scenario planning. It is very uncertain what the scenario

:18:42.:18:45.

will be but much investment has gone into creating a network of camps,

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refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps around cash refugee camps, and that

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is where money, British money, 40 million has gone recently into

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supporting that, especially in terms of medical support to people. The

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United nation's emergency response budget is ?196 million but only one

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third funded which sounds like we are putting up a big chunk of what

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is already being funded. Why is that? The international committee

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can't say they haven't seen this assault coming, and the humanitarian

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fallout they may see from it. You are absolutely right. We have seen

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it coming and we have been planning since debris and we have put in

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about ?167 million into this -- planning since February. There has

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been a change in the nature of the appeal, and if there is a lag in the

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accounting of it, but the money we need at this stage is in place and

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we do have the support structure in place for those refugees. You are

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right the United Nations is continuing with its appeal and is

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asking for more money at the moment. The converse magazine wrote this

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week that preparations for a big exodus of people leaving the city

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have been made -- Economist magazine. But confidence is not high

:20:07.:20:11.

in the preparations, is that a unfair conclusion? If you can

:20:12.:20:17.

imagine the different scenarios it could be a few thousand and it could

:20:18.:20:20.

be a few hundred thousand coming out of the city through a front line

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where the war is going on, that is very difficult. You have to screen

:20:24.:20:28.

those people and disarm them, and keep families together, and

:20:29.:20:32.

transport them and you have to bring them into the refugee camps. The

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people working on this have been working on this for long time, we

:20:37.:20:39.

have mapped the different routes we have good camp infrastructure in

:20:40.:20:45.

place and we have people who have worked in south to dam and other

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areas who are putting their structures in place -- South Sudan.

:20:50.:20:54.

It is never easy but I think we have done everything we can in the

:20:55.:20:57.

preparation for this. What is the British role in what will probably

:20:58.:21:04.

be an even bigger issue, assuming that Mosul is liberated and retaken,

:21:05.:21:10.

the humanitarian crisis is dealt with, what role will we play in the

:21:11.:21:15.

rebuilding of Mosul? That will be crucial to the future of Iraq, the

:21:16.:21:19.

second-biggest city and it will need to be rebuilt. It will need to be

:21:20.:21:25.

rebuilt as a community as well as bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni

:21:26.:21:30.

community that is not harassed by the Shia. -- and eight. You are

:21:31.:21:38.

right. One of the core drivers is that the Sunni community felt

:21:39.:21:40.

excluded and they did not feel they have the trust from the Baghdad

:21:41.:21:44.

government. A lasting solution is stopping some of Islamic State

:21:45.:21:52.

coming back, that involves making sure the Sunni community have a

:21:53.:21:56.

stake in their future. That is making sure that the governing

:21:57.:22:01.

structures are in place. The UK s response is twofold, we have got to

:22:02.:22:06.

get the humanitarian aid right, that is the short term, people who might

:22:07.:22:09.

be malnourished, coming out of the front line. The second thing is

:22:10.:22:14.

working with the Iraqi government to make sure that as we rebuild Mosul

:22:15.:22:19.

we do so in a way that that population feels a connection to the

:22:20.:22:24.

Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing territory everywhere in the Levant,

:22:25.:22:29.

it is almost finished in Iraq, we think. It is down to one district in

:22:30.:22:34.

Libya, as well, just one small part of the town. I suppose the risk is,

:22:35.:22:41.

if life is becoming more difficult across these areas, it can start to

:22:42.:22:46.

look more in Europe and the United Kingdom as a place to continue its

:22:47.:22:50.

terrorist attacks? That is a real danger. You are right. This is a

:22:51.:22:56.

group which has proved over the last five years very unpredictable and it

:22:57.:23:00.

changes for it quickly full stop often it does unexpected things In

:23:01.:23:06.

2009 its predecessor had been largely wiped out in Iraq and when

:23:07.:23:11.

it was under pressure in Syria it went back into Iraq, and in the past

:23:12.:23:14.

it didn't hold territory but now it holds territory, so you are right.

:23:15.:23:19.

There is a serious risk that as it gets squeezed in the middle East it

:23:20.:23:23.

will try to pop up somewhere else and Mac could include Europe and the

:23:24.:23:28.

United States -- that could. They say that is something they have

:23:29.:23:31.

focused on full stop we also have a big focus on counterterrorism

:23:32.:23:36.

security and making sure that we keep the United Kingdom and Europe

:23:37.:23:44.

say. One final question. -- say -- safe. Maybe events in Mosul could

:23:45.:23:50.

add to the migration crisis in Europe, is that a possibility?

:23:51.:23:55.

Again, you are right, we have seen in Syria it can push migration, the

:23:56.:24:01.

biggest push the migration was the conflict in Syria, and that's the

:24:02.:24:04.

reason why we have but so much energy into getting those refugee

:24:05.:24:08.

camps in place and getting the humanitarian response in place -

:24:09.:24:13.

put so much energy. People will want to remain in their homes, this is

:24:14.:24:16.

their country, but we have got to make it possible for them and that

:24:17.:24:19.

means in the short term looking after their shelter and in the

:24:20.:24:24.

medium to long-term making sure they have livelihoods, jobs and an

:24:25.:24:28.

economic development which is why our support in Iraq is in the UK

:24:29.:24:32.

National interests because it deals with these issues of migration and

:24:33.:24:38.

terrorists. Thanks for joining us. I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence

:24:39.:24:42.

Secretary. Does Labour support British

:24:43.:24:59.

participation in this offensive We fully support the participation in

:25:00.:25:03.

this offensive, extremely important move forward and we voted for this

:25:04.:25:09.

back in 2014. We are asking the government question is, of course, I

:25:10.:25:12.

was asking the Secretary of State this week about this very offensive

:25:13.:25:18.

but we are fully behind our RAF pilots out there and be trading that

:25:19.:25:22.

has been going on to help the forces on the ground. -- the training full

:25:23.:25:27.

stop that is very clear. I wonder if you'll lead it shares that clarity

:25:28.:25:33.

and that position. -- is your leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn

:25:34.:25:36.

has said. What's been done in Iraq

:25:37.:25:38.

is done by the Iraqi government, and currently

:25:39.:25:40.

supported by the British government. I did not support it

:25:41.:25:42.

when it came up. Well, I'm not sure how successful

:25:43.:25:44.

it's been, because most of the action now appears to be

:25:45.:25:48.

moving in to Syria, so I think we He doesn't sound very supportive.

:25:49.:26:00.

The issue about Mosul, it has been very carefully prepared as Rory

:26:01.:26:02.

Stewart said and I hope we have learned the lessons from previous

:26:03.:26:08.

offensives where we haven't learnt sufficiently, and that is going to

:26:09.:26:12.

be crucial in this context. How the aftermath is going to be dealt with.

:26:13.:26:17.

Of course will stop that clip was from November last year, and things

:26:18.:26:22.

have changed. Two weeks ago he told the BBC" I'm not sure it is

:26:23.:26:28.

working", in reference to air strikes in Iraq, but it is working.

:26:29.:26:32.

We have got to see what happens in Mosul, it is a very high-risk

:26:33.:26:36.

operation, but we also have to face the fact that the people there are

:26:37.:26:40.

living under tyranny at the moment. We have to ask very cirrus question

:26:41.:26:47.

shall stop he says he's not sure it is working, when Mosul is the last

:26:48.:26:51.

major target be cleared of Islamic State in Iraq. The combination of

:26:52.:26:55.

Allied air power has worked, why is he not sure it is working? Because

:26:56.:26:59.

we have seen difficulties in the past. But this was two weeks ago. It

:27:00.:27:06.

is essential that the work is done, both planning for the refugees as

:27:07.:27:09.

Rory Stewart referred to, but also in terms of reconstruction of the

:27:10.:27:12.

city and its community as you mentioned. These are vital. This was

:27:13.:27:18.

about the ability to make progress with Allied air power, special

:27:19.:27:23.

forces in Iraq, on the ground, do you accept so far that has a

:27:24.:27:28.

strategy that seems to be working to read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq

:27:29.:27:40.

of Islamic State the question of the car began placement. Ulloa -- we

:27:41.:27:53.

can't be complacent. The problems they are creating where ever they

:27:54.:27:56.

are urged that we must continue to pursue them. This is the first time

:27:57.:28:01.

we have spoken to since you have become the Shadow Defence Secretary.

:28:02.:28:04.

I hope we will have a longer interview. Will Labour's next

:28:05.:28:10.

manifesto include a commitment to the renewal of Trident? It will We

:28:11.:28:16.

made that commitment in 2007, that is a firm commitment and we will

:28:17.:28:19.

honour that to our coalition allies and our industrial partners and that

:28:20.:28:22.

is the vote which was taken democratically and repeatedly has

:28:23.:28:26.

been reaffirmed by Labour conference and we are a democratic party vote

:28:27.:28:32.

up you have squared that with Jeremy Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy

:28:33.:28:38.

and he understands the situation, but we also want to push for the UK

:28:39.:28:42.

to play a much bigger role on the international stage on multilateral

:28:43.:28:47.

disarmament talks. You were very clear there, I thank you for that.

:28:48.:28:51.

Support for Trident will be in the next Labour manifesto. What has

:28:52.:28:56.

happened to Labour's review of Trident policy? That review has been

:28:57.:29:01.

taking place over the year, we had a very clear reaffirmation in the

:29:02.:29:06.

conference boat this year, we are reaffirming our commitment to

:29:07.:29:09.

Trident -- vote. The review can t change that? There is a process of

:29:10.:29:16.

review and a fair number of issues related to defence, all parties do

:29:17.:29:22.

this. Of course. The review can t change the commitment to Trident? We

:29:23.:29:26.

are not changing the commitment to Trident. Russia is now the main

:29:27.:29:32.

strategic threat to this country? It is a major strategic threat and we

:29:33.:29:35.

have got to work with our Nato allies very closely and make sure

:29:36.:29:38.

that we respond and that we do not let things pass. For example, we

:29:39.:29:42.

should be calling out Russia for the way it has been a bombing

:29:43.:29:48.

humanitarian aid and we should be taking them to international court

:29:49.:29:50.

over this, but we should also be strengthening sanctions, somewhat

:29:51.:29:58.

imposed over Ukraine. We try to do that, but the Italians wouldn't let

:29:59.:30:03.

us. The Italians did not want to participate in the European

:30:04.:30:05.

initiative but that doesn't stop individual countries for the Britain

:30:06.:30:11.

should step up? Yes, we should look at what is practical to impose.

:30:12.:30:14.

Thanks for joining us. Mosul is not the only major battle

:30:15.:30:20.

being waged in the Middle East. The city of Aleppo in northern Syria

:30:21.:30:22.

has seen some of the heaviest bombardment since Syria's

:30:23.:30:26.

five-year-long civil war began. This week Russian warships,

:30:27.:30:29.

in a deliberate show of power, sailed west through the English

:30:30.:30:32.

channel en route to Syria. Nato says it's Russia's "largest

:30:33.:30:36.

surface deployment" since the end of the Cold War in what is thought

:30:37.:30:39.

to be preparation for a final assault

:30:40.:30:42.

on the besieged city of Aleppo. In the city itself fighting

:30:43.:30:46.

resumed overnight - following a 3-day ceasefire -

:30:47.:30:50.

with more air strikes and heavy clashes in the city's

:30:51.:30:55.

rebel-held eastern districts. Almost 500 people have been

:30:56.:30:58.

killed and 2,000 injured since Syrian government forces,

:30:59.:31:01.

backed by Russian air strikes, This week Theresa May condemned

:31:02.:31:05.

Vladimir Putin's involvement in Syria, accusing Moscow

:31:06.:31:12.

of being behind "sickening atrocities" in support

:31:13.:31:15.

of President Assad's regime. But European leaders are divided

:31:16.:31:18.

on how to respond and, with the United States preoccupied

:31:19.:31:23.

with domestic politics, President Putin senses this

:31:24.:31:25.

is his moment to bring the Syrian I'm joined now by the BBC's former

:31:26.:31:29.

Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent, Bridget Kendall, who is now Master

:31:30.:31:37.

of Peterhouse College in Cambridge. Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC

:31:38.:31:50.

studio again. Let me put up this satellite image of Aleppo here, to

:31:51.:31:57.

get an idea of the scale. It was the biggest city in Syria. It was the

:31:58.:32:02.

commercial capital and a huge cultural hub as well. Almost the New

:32:03.:32:07.

York of Syria, to give you an idea of its significance to the country.

:32:08.:32:12.

Let me show you now how it's been divided. The rebels are now in

:32:13.:32:17.

control of the eastern part, about eight miles long and three miles

:32:18.:32:24.

wide there, they're in purple. They are under great attacks still. Is it

:32:25.:32:28.

inevitable that that purple part falls to the regime? That is what

:32:29.:32:37.

President as Saad, the Russians and the Iranians hope. The fierce

:32:38.:32:43.

bombardments we have seen is part of that. I'm reminded very much in the

:32:44.:32:47.

Russian tactics of what happened in grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when

:32:48.:32:52.

the Russians said, a warning for all civilians to lead, and then they

:32:53.:32:58.

went ahead and they basically raised it to the ground. They are talking

:32:59.:33:03.

about Al Nusrah as being one of the rebel groups. They got rid of all of

:33:04.:33:09.

the terrorists. They talk about it being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The

:33:10.:33:13.

purpose of going in is to get rid of them. You get the civilians out and

:33:14.:33:17.

then you take it. But this isn't like Chechnya. It is much more

:33:18.:33:23.

complex. We have seen an attempt to take Aleppo before, and then there

:33:24.:33:27.

was a rebel counter offensive. It's not so certain. And there are so

:33:28.:33:31.

many different parties involved We have seen the alarm in the west of

:33:32.:33:35.

the extent of the civilian casualties. There have been

:33:36.:33:45.

rumblings in the west of, shouldn't the United States do something?

:33:46.:33:48.

Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air force? This Russian aircraft carrier

:33:49.:33:51.

steaming its way towards the Eastern Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture,

:33:52.:33:57.

both to its own people, but also to the West, to say, don't get involved

:33:58.:34:03.

in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try and stop us because we could up the

:34:04.:34:09.

ante. They have not been great visual pictures, because the

:34:10.:34:13.

aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped out, belching out smoke! If the

:34:14.:34:20.

rebel controlled area does fall it would be seen as a great victory for

:34:21.:34:24.

President as Saad and his Russian allies. What is the aim of Russia

:34:25.:34:29.

here? What would they then do, if Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan

:34:30.:34:34.

that President Putin set out in his UN speech in 2014, before Russia

:34:35.:34:41.

went into Syria. The aim is to put President Assad back in charge.

:34:42.:34:44.

President Putin said this weekend that either is Assad in Damascus, or

:34:45.:34:49.

its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in between. They want to eliminate the

:34:50.:34:54.

argument for a moderate opposition. They want to make it plain that the

:34:55.:35:00.

only way to get a stable Syria is to have Assad back in charge. Even sue

:35:01.:35:08.

argue for a rump steak lit, leaving aside what is happening with IAS.

:35:09.:35:16.

They have already said they want to have an enlarged military presence

:35:17.:35:20.

at their bases. And they have a big naval base. It is. It is a chance to

:35:21.:35:28.

push for this when he sees the West is being distracted and divided

:35:29.:35:34.

Europe and America, by elections and so on. Just before the US elections.

:35:35.:35:39.

The Americans are worried about that, Europeans are being distracted

:35:40.:35:44.

by Brexit. He can push to his maximum advantage now, before there

:35:45.:35:49.

is a new US president. If they do take that part of Aleppo, and that

:35:50.:35:59.

part of northern Syria, does Mr Putin want us to recognise, to

:36:00.:36:04.

admit, that that is now his sphere of influence? I think the rhetoric

:36:05.:36:10.

from the Russians is that they want the West to recognise that they are

:36:11.:36:15.

an equal powerful partner. It's not just the US that runs the writ in

:36:16.:36:19.

the Middle East. Russia is as important as it is. It is engaging

:36:20.:36:25.

with Saudi Arabia and has mended fences with Turkey. Syria is the

:36:26.:36:30.

place from which it can launch its message that it is a big player in

:36:31.:36:36.

the Middle East. Russia wants the West to understand that this isn't a

:36:37.:36:41.

country that was dismembered after the end of the Soviet Union and is

:36:42.:36:45.

now a week. It is back, and it is strong. That is an important

:36:46.:36:51.

message. Looking at the economy It is in recession. GDP has been

:36:52.:36:56.

falling, partly because of the price of oil. It is highly dependent on

:36:57.:37:01.

hydrocarbons, and is expected to fall again. Its people are falling

:37:02.:37:06.

again. People don't realise how small the Russian economy is. Its

:37:07.:37:12.

GDP is about the size of Italy's. It is smaller than the UK economy.

:37:13.:37:17.

Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years ago. But so is Britain's does it

:37:18.:37:27.

help to take people's mind of this? A huge shock to the Russian economy

:37:28.:37:33.

was a drop in the price of oil and a price of gas. A drop in the price of

:37:34.:37:38.

the ruble as well. This is hurting the people of Russia. On the one

:37:39.:37:43.

hand, it is the war in Syria, which is very important for Russia to sort

:37:44.:37:48.

out that part of the world and dispensed terrorists who might be

:37:49.:37:56.

danger to -- is dangerous to Russia. But he had also has presidential

:37:57.:38:01.

election is going up. They are supposed to be 2018, but some feel

:38:02.:38:05.

he will bring them forward to 2 17, because the economy is not doing so

:38:06.:38:10.

well. But you need a good story for the Russian people. Thank you very

:38:11.:38:12.

much. Hello, I'm Martyn Oates.

:38:13.:38:14.

in Scotland who leave us now Coming up on the Sunday Polhtics

:38:15.:38:26.

in the South West... There'll be no more fish in the sea

:38:27.:38:28.

post-Brexit, but will our fhshermen And for the next twenty minttes

:38:29.:38:32.

I'm joined by the North Cornwall MP Scott Mann and by Exeter's Ben

:38:33.:38:39.

Bradshaw. This week, in a heated

:38:40.:38:41.

debate at Westminster, Devon MPs discussed the cuts

:38:42.:38:45.

to services being proposed to stave off the financial crisis

:38:46.:38:48.

in the county's health servhces Here's a taste from the Torridge

:38:49.:38:51.

and West Devon MP Geoffrey Cox. Until the deficit is addressed,

:38:52.:38:55.

until there is fair funding for rural health services,

:38:56.:38:58.

we will not believe the asstrances that come from the well-meaning

:38:59.:39:03.

administrators that our health Scott, you're the North Cornwall MP

:39:04.:39:05.

next door to North Devon. I guess a lot of your consthtuents

:39:06.:39:12.

actually go to places like North Devon District Hospital,

:39:13.:39:15.

which is potentially in the Many of my constituents frol Bude

:39:16.:39:18.

and Launce do go across the border What I would say is I understand

:39:19.:39:24.

Devon's part of this review process to process

:39:25.:39:28.

with Cumbria and Essex, This is to tackle the huge

:39:29.:39:32.

financial challenge. They're trying to look at a much

:39:33.:39:35.

more creative way of doing what they're doing and I thhnk

:39:36.:39:39.

we tend to focus so much of our efforts on the second phase,

:39:40.:39:42.

the General Hospital phase, when we should be looking at helping

:39:43.:39:44.

GPs to maintain people living From my point of view,

:39:45.:39:47.

I think the best bed for anxbody is the bed that they actually sleep

:39:48.:39:56.

in every night and if we can provide health care that supports

:39:57.:40:00.

them to go back into their own home, I think that would probably

:40:01.:40:03.

be beneficial. Ben, you sit on the health

:40:04.:40:05.

select committee. A lot of the Conservative MPs

:40:06.:40:06.

there were moaning about money and there not being enough loney

:40:07.:40:09.

for health in the south-west. You were addressing a simil`r theme

:40:10.:40:12.

on the select committee on the same I thought the strength

:40:13.:40:15.

and the tone of the criticism from the Conservative MPs w`s really

:40:16.:40:18.

very striking and at the very same time as they were having th`t

:40:19.:40:21.

debate, Sarah Wollaston, the Totnes MP and I were grhlling

:40:22.:40:24.

the Health Secretary and Simon Stephens and Therdsa May

:40:25.:40:26.

made quite clear this week there's not going to be any more money

:40:27.:40:29.

for the NHS and Simon Stephdns, the head of the NHS said th`t

:40:30.:40:32.

for the first time in the NHS's history, funding

:40:33.:40:35.

is falling per head. Some of the changes proposed

:40:36.:40:37.

in Devon could make sense. It does make sense to move resources

:40:38.:40:39.

from beds and community hospitals to give more support for people

:40:40.:40:42.

in their homes but when sochal care has already been cut to the bone

:40:43.:40:45.

and we need really strong gtarantees that that money is going to

:40:46.:40:49.

be there. Well, regular viewers of thhs

:40:50.:40:51.

programme will be very familiar with the trials and tribulations

:40:52.:40:55.

of trying to roll out superfast broadband in rural

:40:56.:40:57.

Devon and Somerset. The two counties are the only part

:40:58.:40:59.

of the country which still haven't signed up a contractor to mdet

:41:00.:41:02.

the government's pledge of delivering 95% coverage

:41:03.:41:05.

by the end of next year, making delivery of that pledge,

:41:06.:41:08.

I would think, unlikely. When the deal collapsed,

:41:09.:41:11.

I spoke to the man in He said dissatisfaction with BT s

:41:12.:41:13.

performance in the first ph`se of the roll-out was one reason

:41:14.:41:18.

they weren't hired again. Ultimately, we have to go

:41:19.:41:22.

for good value for money We can't just give it to BT as has

:41:23.:41:25.

been suggested and hope They have proved to us

:41:26.:41:33.

that they couldn't deliver so we had no alternative but to step

:41:34.:41:37.

away at that point. Eight months on we can reve`l that

:41:38.:41:39.

MPs in Devon and Somerset h`ve now written to BT following reports

:41:40.:41:42.

that its commercial roll-out of superfast broadband is shx months

:41:43.:41:44.

behind schedule in the two counties. That means around 20,000 fewer homes

:41:45.:41:48.

and businesses will be conndcted by the end of December this year

:41:49.:41:52.

than BT had promised the cotncils. Let's see if we can download

:41:53.:41:54.

the Sunday politics South Wdst show. To show me how slow the Intdrnet

:41:55.:42:07.

speeds are at his house in East Devon, Rod's trying

:42:08.:42:10.

to download an episode of the Sunday He's only getting speeds

:42:11.:42:14.

of 0.42 megabits, so this The problem seems to be that

:42:15.:42:20.

Rod's been connected to a broadband cabinet,

:42:21.:42:27.

which is six and a half It's terribly frustrating

:42:28.:42:30.

because things that are norlal, that people do, like iPlayer

:42:31.:42:36.

and all the other things th`t people So, Jenny, this is cabinet,

:42:37.:42:40.

also number 11, also connected What's even more annoying for Rod

:42:41.:42:47.

is that he could get much bdtter Internet access if he was

:42:48.:42:52.

connected to this cabinet. It's just a few yards

:42:53.:42:56.

from his house. Some new properties nearby

:42:57.:42:59.

are connected from it, Well, BT say it's, they use these

:43:00.:43:03.

two words, policy and engindering. For some reason, they

:43:04.:43:12.

don't want to do it. Rod's connection is

:43:13.:43:15.

subsidised by the taxpayer. In this case by connecting

:43:16.:43:22.

Devon and Somerset. That's a partnership

:43:23.:43:25.

between councils and broadb`nd providers, which decides

:43:26.:43:28.

where to spend the public money A target for 90% of households

:43:29.:43:33.

to get access to superfast broadband But that is heavily dependent on BT

:43:34.:43:36.

meeting an obligation to deliver And we understand BT's commdrcially

:43:37.:43:41.

viable connections are six This could mean approximately 2 ,000

:43:42.:43:46.

fewer homes and businesses than councillors had been promised

:43:47.:43:58.

will be connected at This is very much our

:43:59.:44:01.

infrastructure. This is what is going to drhve

:44:02.:44:04.

the economy in our areas and it is so annoying when we put

:44:05.:44:08.

a lot of public money into ht, councils, private money,

:44:09.:44:12.

plus government money This village is one of thosd that

:44:13.:44:14.

had been stuck between a rock Not in the publicly funded scheme

:44:15.:44:20.

and told by BT that broadband But now another company

:44:21.:44:24.

is about to make a go of it. This week, a company called

:44:25.:44:29.

Gigacare has announced This week, a company called Gigacare

:44:30.:44:43.

has announced -- Gigaclear. a service to this area and ht

:44:44.:44:45.

will be doing so without It's even promising residents that

:44:46.:44:50.

they'll be able to download a movie It is welcome news for this

:44:51.:44:54.

holiday cottage business. It's been losing customers

:44:55.:44:57.

because they can't use It's going to have a massivd impact

:44:58.:44:59.

on our business and I know ht's going to have an impact on other

:45:00.:45:06.

businesses as well. Ah, Jenny, it looks

:45:07.:45:09.

as if it hasn't downloaded. Meanwhile, back in East Devon,

:45:10.:45:11.

Rod would love a company like Gigaclear to help him out

:45:12.:45:13.

but he feels it's unlikely that a smaller provider would be

:45:14.:45:16.

interested in setting up in his area because most of his village do have

:45:17.:45:20.

superfast broadband. Unfortunately, he is among 20

:45:21.:45:22.

properties that are missing out Well, BT declined our invit`tion

:45:23.:45:30.

to join us to discuss this, but the company has

:45:31.:45:34.

provided a statement. It didn't deny there were ddlays,

:45:35.:45:36.

but said BT had always made it clear that any early estimates of expected

:45:37.:45:39.

commercial coverage, made several years ago,

:45:40.:45:43.

were part of an outline plan, which was subject to detaildd

:45:44.:45:47.

planning and survey. It said national commitments made

:45:48.:45:49.

by BT on its commercial fibre broadband programme had

:45:50.:45:51.

been achieved early. In response to the case of Lr Boyce,

:45:52.:45:55.

BT said it was not unusual for a small number of premises

:45:56.:45:58.

connected to an upgraded cabinet not to benefit

:45:59.:46:01.

from superfast speeds. Well, one man who did

:46:02.:46:05.

accept our invitation to the programme is the councillor

:46:06.:46:06.

in charge of the Welcome back to the programle,

:46:07.:46:09.

David. Now, the last time we were talking

:46:10.:46:12.

about broadband, we were talking about the problems with phase two,

:46:13.:46:18.

which obviously you acknowlddge but I do remember you saying at that

:46:19.:46:22.

point the good news was that phase That doesn't really look

:46:23.:46:25.

like the case now, does it? As far as the intervention

:46:26.:46:31.

programme is concerned, as far as connecting Devon

:46:32.:46:34.

and Somerset is concerned, But just to be clear,

:46:35.:46:36.

you're not going to meet thhs Overall, the programme we understand

:46:37.:46:42.

now is not going to meet thd 90 but the bit that is being stbsidised

:46:43.:46:49.

by the government, the intervention part that we have been responsible

:46:50.:46:53.

for will meet its targets. What we are waiting to hear now

:46:54.:47:02.

is how far short of their commercial targets BT are actually going to be

:47:03.:47:06.

and what that will mean in terms of percentage points but we mustn't

:47:07.:47:09.

lose sight of the fact that the public subsidy,

:47:10.:47:12.

the bit subsidised by you and I that is on target, as indeed

:47:13.:47:15.

is the procurement that we spoke So, we are making progress

:47:16.:47:18.

but naturally on behalf of the consumers, I'm

:47:19.:47:21.

disappointed that BT aren't going to meet

:47:22.:47:27.

their commercial obligations. Because these targets,

:47:28.:47:28.

these pledges were made, the councils have been quitd clear

:47:29.:47:30.

about that, the government have been You were tasked with

:47:31.:47:33.

delivering this target. The way you chose to do

:47:34.:47:37.

that was via BT but the point Well, that's correct

:47:38.:47:40.

and the targets that we werd set, our part of the programme, was based

:47:41.:47:47.

upon the numbers provided bx BT We now understand that BT

:47:48.:47:50.

are going to meet those targets, those numbers

:47:51.:48:04.

that they originally put forward. That is disappointing

:48:05.:48:07.

but it doesn't take away from the success of the programme,

:48:08.:48:09.

the success of the public stbsidy and it doesn't take away

:48:10.:48:12.

from the importance of carrxing on and making sure we get

:48:13.:48:14.

connectivity out to the rest of Devon and Somerset

:48:15.:48:16.

as quickly as possible. I absolutely agree and symp`thise

:48:17.:48:18.

with the frustration of people who haven't got it yet

:48:19.:48:21.

but the programme continues and we are waiting in very positive

:48:22.:48:23.

anticipation of the results Ben, you're a Devon MP

:48:24.:48:26.

though I guess Exeter Well, we've got pretty serious gaps

:48:27.:48:29.

in places like Marsh Barton, which is a very important

:48:30.:48:34.

industrial estate. Look, this is a pretty

:48:35.:48:36.

scandalous situation. We were promised 90% coverage

:48:37.:48:38.

by the end of this year. There's no way we're

:48:39.:48:41.

going to make that up. You know, there was clearly

:48:42.:48:44.

something wrong If BT can't be forced to deliver

:48:45.:48:46.

this or at least penalised for not delivering it on time then

:48:47.:48:50.

there was something wrong There have been a couple of very

:48:51.:48:52.

critical select committee rdports One recommending they be split off

:48:53.:48:56.

from Open Reach, which I thhnk Ofcom They've given them a last chance

:48:57.:49:00.

on that and one said that they were missing 1000 visits

:49:01.:49:04.

a week in terms of the implementation of broadband,

:49:05.:49:06.

so there's clearly something I feel very sorry for

:49:07.:49:08.

the councillors that have h`d to deal with this at a local level

:49:09.:49:12.

but I think in the end, the buck has to stop

:49:13.:49:15.

with the government. David, have you got any way

:49:16.:49:17.

of penalising BT for this or indeed making them actually achievd this

:49:18.:49:20.

target in the next few months? Well, I think the important thing

:49:21.:49:23.

is that we continue a constructive relationship with BT,

:49:24.:49:26.

Holborn to account. We're waiting to see

:49:27.:49:33.

the actual numbers. We don't know what the

:49:34.:49:36.

percentage points are. There's talk of their being a number

:49:37.:49:38.

of months behind. This will inevitably

:49:39.:49:41.

run into the delivery We need to put pressure on BT

:49:42.:49:42.

but at the same time make stre I wanted to talk about that

:49:43.:49:47.

because I think the last tile we spoke you weren't prepardd

:49:48.:49:51.

or able to confirm that the phase two target, 95% within the next

:49:52.:49:54.

year, would be made. That's going to happen now, is it,

:49:55.:49:56.

with these latest convocations? I don't think you're in a position

:49:57.:49:59.

to say that. The procurement has closed xet,

:50:00.:50:01.

so we don't know the results. So you haven't got

:50:02.:50:04.

the contracter in place yet? Since we spoke, the level

:50:05.:50:06.

of interest in being a provider under phase two

:50:07.:50:10.

has been significant. I have every anticipation

:50:11.:50:13.

that we might well over delhver which is good news but it doesn t

:50:14.:50:17.

make up for BT's shortfall We have to bear in mind that

:50:18.:50:20.

whatever we do as an intervdntion programme, were not allowed by law

:50:21.:50:24.

to interfere in the commerchal area, so that the end of the day BT just

:50:25.:50:42.

have too deliver and we've got to keep the pressure on thel,

:50:43.:50:46.

government has to keep the pressure It's well-known that Cornwall got

:50:47.:50:49.

a lot of European funding to roll out superfast broadband but people

:50:50.:50:55.

repeatedly say, in theory, that's right, but we've

:50:56.:50:57.

still got problems. You've got a very

:50:58.:50:59.

rural constituency. If you're in that 5%

:51:00.:51:00.

of people that don't get it, that's a particular problem

:51:01.:51:03.

so I wanted to try and get involved so I got involved

:51:04.:51:05.

in the Digital Economy Bill, which is currently going

:51:06.:51:08.

through Parliament at the moment and we're trying to implement a 10

:51:09.:51:10.

megabits speed over the course of the whole country

:51:11.:51:13.

as a universal service obligation, so the emphasis will be

:51:14.:51:15.

on organisations like BT and if they don't deliver,

:51:16.:51:17.

we're going to give Ofcom the ability to step in and test

:51:18.:51:20.

people's signals on the doorstep, not at the cabinet,

:51:21.:51:23.

but on the doorstep, so that they are able to thdn

:51:24.:51:24.

penalise the contractor. OK, we're going to have

:51:25.:51:27.

to leave it there. David, thank you very much once

:51:28.:51:29.

again and perhaps we'll be talking about your over

:51:30.:51:32.

delivery next time! Plymouth, according to government

:51:33.:51:33.

figures, landed the most fish in England last year and only last

:51:34.:51:38.

week the value of fish sold at Brixham market surpassed

:51:39.:51:41.

the million pound mark But many fishermen feel the industry

:51:42.:51:43.

has been hamstrung by Britahn's membership of the EU and ard hoping

:51:44.:51:46.

for a brighter future post-Brexit. Scott tabled a debate on thhs

:51:47.:51:49.

at Westminster a few days ago. We'll be hearing from him and former

:51:50.:51:52.

Fisheries Minister, Ben, This was the day in June

:51:53.:51:55.

that the battle for Brexit When a flotilla of fishing

:51:56.:51:59.

boats travelled up Among them, fishermen

:52:00.:52:03.

from the south-west. Brixham skipper Mike Sharp was one,

:52:04.:52:08.

desperate to be rid of an ET quota The French have 70% of the cod,

:52:09.:52:12.

we have eight. They have 70% of the haddock,

:52:13.:52:19.

we have about seven or eight. And it's every species,

:52:20.:52:22.

so it's not a case of we want more for a bigger quota,

:52:23.:52:27.

we want and equal share of ht and most of the fish

:52:28.:52:31.

is in English waters. We asked marine consultant,

:52:32.:52:36.

Terry Portman, to explain how In the beginning when we johned

:52:37.:52:38.

the CFP, there were And why south-west fishermen feel

:52:39.:52:43.

they got landed with a raw deal Because the emphasis was put

:52:44.:52:47.

on the UK having bigger percentages in what the government of the day

:52:48.:52:53.

thought was the important Most fishermen will welcome

:52:54.:52:56.

the opportunity to have all been The idea that we have a big enough

:52:57.:53:04.

naval fleet to go out and look at the hundreds of fishing

:53:05.:53:09.

boats in our waters every There's a lot to take in so here's

:53:10.:53:12.

a helpful graphic to explain things. Under the Common Fisheries Policy,

:53:13.:53:20.

European fishing fleets are given equal access to EU waters

:53:21.:53:22.

and fishing grounds up to 12 nautical miles from the coasts

:53:23.:53:25.

of EU member states. When the UK leaves the EU,

:53:26.:53:28.

it'll take back control of `n area extending 200 nautical

:53:29.:53:31.

miles from our coast. Or in the case of the channdl,

:53:32.:53:33.

up to the median line. So, it's absolutely possibld

:53:34.:53:38.

that the UK's starting position will be that we have our territorial

:53:39.:53:45.

waters back and the UK has sole The reality is that I'm surd

:53:46.:53:49.

there be a series of negoti`tions and somewhere between that

:53:50.:53:56.

and what we currently have Those who backed the Fishing

:53:57.:53:58.

For Leave campaign are now pushing We have to ensure that the living

:53:59.:54:04.

resources in our waters are available primarily for UK

:54:05.:54:11.

fishermen and that they are managed a lot better

:54:12.:54:13.

than they have been in the past Although poised to slip

:54:14.:54:19.

the shackles of Europe, communities like Brixham know

:54:20.:54:22.

there's a lot to lose. The main problem that everyone

:54:23.:54:27.

is scared of that fishing is so small that we will be traded

:54:28.:54:30.

off but it is not just It's the coastal ports all `round

:54:31.:54:38.

the country, the shipbuilding, According to the government,

:54:39.:54:42.

85% of all UK shellfish was exported The need to maintain a closd trading

:54:43.:54:45.

relationship with the use whll make things get more complicated

:54:46.:54:55.

for ministers trying to hamler out Scott, what about the suggestion

:54:56.:55:01.

we had from a fishermen there and I've heard

:55:02.:55:05.

from other people as well, that in the totality of these Brexit

:55:06.:55:07.

negotiations, relatively sm`ll industries like fishing and indeed

:55:08.:55:09.

farming, as you were debating this week, could actually be

:55:10.:55:12.

the fall guys, ie, you know, if there are prizes to secure,

:55:13.:55:14.

the price going to to be pahd might Well, of course it is small now

:55:15.:55:18.

in the West Country but it I remember growing up and sdeing,

:55:19.:55:22.

you know, fishing communitids that were absolutely thriving

:55:23.:55:26.

along the coastline. To put in another way,

:55:27.:55:27.

somebody from the fishing community was saying,

:55:28.:55:29.

you know, if there is a deb`te about saving passporting rights

:55:30.:55:32.

for the city and conceding something in fishing in response,

:55:33.:55:34.

that might be the option When we entered the European Union,

:55:35.:55:36.

we had to give over our fishing rights as a communal resource

:55:37.:55:40.

and they are historically hours and I think that we should hnvoke

:55:41.:55:46.

the United Nations Law of the Sea and claim our territorial

:55:47.:55:53.

fishing waters back. So, are we talking about gohng

:55:54.:55:55.

to the 200 mile... So, no deal to share any

:55:56.:55:57.

access at all? Well, I think there does nedd to be

:55:58.:56:01.

a discussion about whether xou enter waters but I think the Brithsh

:56:02.:56:04.

government should be in control But presumably, will you sthll think

:56:05.:56:07.

it is important to have this tariff free access for I think

:56:08.:56:12.

it was the 85% of shellfish we sell You will have to give

:56:13.:56:15.

something in return. One of the things that came out

:56:16.:56:19.

of the fishing and farming debate was that we export 40%

:56:20.:56:24.

of our lamb to France. So there does need

:56:25.:56:27.

to be a trade-off. It is a big challenge to achieve

:56:28.:56:29.

that, isn't it, because of the rules Everybody seems to accept that

:56:30.:56:32.

when we entered the then EEC, we got a bad deal in terms

:56:33.:56:38.

of the fishing quota. Yeah, but my worry is we cotld

:56:39.:56:48.

have an even worse when aftdr this process and I think there could be

:56:49.:56:51.

a lot of disappointed Brexit supporting fishermen out

:56:52.:56:54.

there for two reasons. Firstly, as you have just s`id,

:56:55.:56:56.

we rely heavily on exports. The vast majority of our,

:56:57.:56:59.

you know, the biggest catch here and these fantastic record

:57:00.:57:01.

cuttlefish catches in Plymotth and Brixham, go straight

:57:02.:57:03.

to the Italian markets Our crab and lobster goes straight

:57:04.:57:05.

to France and Spain. The very worst thing to happen

:57:06.:57:09.

would be if tariffs The idea that we could unil`terally

:57:10.:57:11.

declare a 200 mile limit with no consequences is,

:57:12.:57:16.

I'm afraid, a pie in the skx. We'd be looking at a place hn a sole

:57:17.:57:19.

war rather than a cod war and the other thing is,

:57:20.:57:22.

the idea that anyone else is going to give us a lot of favours

:57:23.:57:25.

in the negotiation and that a British government

:57:26.:57:28.

is going to prioritise fishhng is, unfortunately, given as you say

:57:29.:57:30.

the importance of much more important areas

:57:31.:57:32.

and sectors for our economy. You know, we've heard a lot

:57:33.:57:35.

from the Labour Party in parliament over the last few weeks abott access

:57:36.:57:42.

to the single market. And from some of your

:57:43.:57:44.

own MPs, on both sides But from my point of view,

:57:45.:57:47.

I think the one thing we nedd to do right now is deliver

:57:48.:57:52.

the will of the British people and I think that, you know,

:57:53.:57:55.

we've seen a lot of questions from Labour members

:57:56.:57:57.

of Parliament around what Brexit Martyn, if we were

:57:58.:57:59.

playing cards right now, I don't think we should be showing

:58:00.:58:05.

everybody their cards either. I think it's important for ts

:58:06.:58:15.

to play as good a hand as we can at the moment

:58:16.:58:18.

for our people in this country. I completely accept that

:58:19.:58:21.

but I'm just not sure it was the will of the Brithsh

:58:22.:58:23.

people to do ourselves OK, we can't pursue the whole

:58:24.:58:26.

single market and Brexit The Transport Secretary prolises

:58:27.:58:29.

the government won't sit by and see the region's railway severed

:58:30.:58:35.

a second time. This is a very crucial link

:58:36.:58:39.

to an important part of our country. Cornwall's Conservative MPs under

:58:40.:58:45.

fire for failing to vote against a new constituency

:58:46.:58:48.

shared with Devon. They completely missed a golden

:58:49.:58:53.

opportunity and I think the people of Cornwall should be

:58:54.:58:55.

pretty upset about. Dartmoor councillors fight

:58:56.:58:57.

to hold their phone boxes. This is situated in a vallex

:58:58.:59:02.

and we have very high sides to the valleys

:59:03.:59:05.

there is no mobile signal. Plymouth MP Oliver Coville lanages

:59:06.:59:10.

to get hedgehogs into a deb`te Local authorities could makd sure

:59:11.:59:13.

they have policies to make sure that they have hedgehog supdr

:59:14.:59:29.

highways and something that And, the pint sized campaigner

:59:30.:59:31.

bringing thousands of locked drains to the attention

:59:32.:59:35.

of Cornwall Council. Scott, you were one of the Cornish

:59:36.:59:37.

MPs who voted against the SNP amendment to oppose the boundary

:59:38.:59:41.

changes, which would see thhs Devon You said a few weeks ago whdn this

:59:42.:59:43.

was announced that you were going to take soundings

:59:44.:59:49.

from your constituents. The truth is, I think that ht

:59:50.:59:51.

would take somebody very spdcial to represent both areas,

:59:52.:59:59.

to represent both youthful `reas. Geoffrey Cox has ruled himsdlf

:00:00.:00:05.

out on the other side Geoffrey Cox has ruled himsdlf

:00:06.:00:16.

out on the other side I'm saying to you that I thhnk

:00:17.:00:20.

it can be done but you have to deal with two local enterprise

:00:21.:00:25.

partnerships and that So there is no issue of a principled

:00:26.:00:26.

stand against it? No one is moving

:00:27.:00:30.

the historic border. This is about whether an MP can do

:00:31.:00:32.

two jobs for two different Scott will have another opportunity

:00:33.:00:35.

to vote against the boundarx changes in November because there's

:00:36.:00:38.

a private members bill that Will you vote against it thdn,

:00:39.:00:41.

Scott? Would I vote against

:00:42.:00:44.

the boundary review then? I would, as I said to you,

:00:45.:00:45.

be taking soundings At the moment the number of e-mails

:00:46.:00:48.

that have been in my inbox `re quite small on this issue but I whll take

:00:49.:00:52.

soundings from the people that It looks as if noises

:00:53.:00:56.

from the Transport Secretarx are that the government

:00:57.:01:00.

will stump up the money We have heard this before

:01:01.:01:03.

and it hasn't happened I'm not an engineer, Martin,

:01:04.:01:06.

but ideally have some concerns I do have some concerns abott moving

:01:07.:01:09.

a railway line from the cliff face into the sea, when it seems

:01:10.:01:13.

the sea is the problem. go ahead with this policy, I know.

:01:14.:01:15.

And now back to Andrew. So, Brexit, airports,

:01:16.:01:27.

Calais and the chances With what Rory Stewart was saying

:01:28.:01:49.

there, it is clear that Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq

:01:50.:01:52.

now, and could come under pressure in Syria as well. It used to control

:01:53.:01:59.

a whole swathe of the coast of Libya, and is now down to a small

:02:00.:02:08.

area of Sirte in Libya. But curiously, it could make them more

:02:09.:02:11.

dangerous here if they are being driven out of the Maghreb and the

:02:12.:02:16.

Levant, they could be more dangerous here. Discuss. That was a very

:02:17.:02:21.

interesting admission from a government minister, of all people,

:02:22.:02:26.

and a well-informed one. Chasing Isis around the Middle East is

:02:27.:02:33.

about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda around Afghanistan and Pakistan You

:02:34.:02:37.

smash them somewhere, and they pop up somewhere else. He is right to

:02:38.:02:46.

warn that these guys will go somewhere. And it may well be, in

:02:47.:02:57.

Sirte, for example, across the magic oration -- across the Mediterranean

:02:58.:03:03.

into Italy. A lot of the foreign fighters in Mosul have already gone,

:03:04.:03:06.

we heard, which raises the question, to where? I think it is quite right

:03:07.:03:14.

for government ministers to warn that it might have repercussions

:03:15.:03:19.

here. We have been involved in this, with full public consent, as far as

:03:20.:03:24.

we can tell. If it doesn't happen, if there are horrors and outrages

:03:25.:03:28.

here and in the rest of Europe, that's fine. If it does happen, at

:03:29.:03:35.

least the government is prepared. We knew surprised about how categorical

:03:36.:03:43.

Nia Griffith was? She was categorical about support for the

:03:44.:03:49.

Allied action in Iraq, and categorical about Russia. So much so

:03:50.:03:56.

that perhaps written should take tougher sanctions on its own, even

:03:57.:04:00.

if it can't get the Europeans to fall in line. I found that

:04:01.:04:05.

interesting. I was surprised by that. Tom may be right that Rory

:04:06.:04:10.

said more than perhaps he was intending, but I thought that some

:04:11.:04:15.

of what she said sounded politically imprudent in the current context of

:04:16.:04:20.

the Labour Party. I'm not sure she cleared those lines with the Labour

:04:21.:04:24.

office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy are in the same place about it. I'm

:04:25.:04:30.

not sure there is that much leadership. People at the moment get

:04:31.:04:33.

out there and say what they think it's right for the party. She

:04:34.:04:38.

sounded dead right to me. Whether it is ill-advised or not, people should

:04:39.:04:44.

answer... I want to move on, because Brexit never goes away. This week we

:04:45.:04:50.

saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow Foreign Secretary. He is going to be

:04:51.:04:54.

the chair of the select committee in the Commons which will monitor the

:04:55.:04:58.

Department for Brexit. All sorts of people will be coming to give

:04:59.:05:01.

testimony and so one. Let's hear what he told Andrew Marr.

:05:02.:05:05.

I think it will be very important for the government to indicate that

:05:06.:05:08.

if it is not possible within the two years provided for by Article 5

:05:09.:05:11.

to negotiate both our withdrawal agreement and a new trading

:05:12.:05:14.

relationship, market access, including for services,

:05:15.:05:15.

80% of our economy, million jobs, in financial services,

:05:16.:05:17.

that it should tell the House of Commons that it will seek

:05:18.:05:20.

a transitional arrangement with the European Union.

:05:21.:05:26.

If the deal is not done at the end of the two-year Article 50 process,

:05:27.:05:34.

would the government go for an interim agreement, or would it fall

:05:35.:05:40.

back on WTO, World Trade Organisation, Rawls? My

:05:41.:05:45.

understanding is the article 15 negotiation doesn't specifically

:05:46.:05:48.

include what Britain's future trading relationship with the EU

:05:49.:05:53.

would be. It is perfectly possible that Article 50 could be triggered,

:05:54.:05:58.

and after two years we don't have a trade deal, but the trade deal

:05:59.:06:03.

negotiations are ongoing when we are outside the EU. But the trade deal

:06:04.:06:14.

negotiations are the most important thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover

:06:15.:06:16.

it, what is it about? Absolutely essential. The trade deal with

:06:17.:06:19.

Canada has taken nine years, and now it looks like it is fading, because

:06:20.:06:27.

of the Walloons. Just one small part of the country. If you cannot do a

:06:28.:06:36.

free-trade deal with Canada, a progressive, social Democratic

:06:37.:06:39.

Canada, who can the EU do a trade deal with? You would think it would

:06:40.:06:44.

be easy with us, because we have all of the level playing field

:06:45.:06:47.

agreements in place. You would hope it would be easier, but it may not

:06:48.:06:53.

be, because in the end, it will hinge on the single market and if we

:06:54.:06:58.

are in or out. If we are in, can we have a small break on immigration?

:06:59.:07:07.

It looks like not. What is interesting about the opinion polls

:07:08.:07:09.

is, in the last two opinion polls there was a significant change in

:07:10.:07:13.

public opinion, where people are now saying they think that actually

:07:14.:07:18.

trade, the economy, the single market is more important than

:07:19.:07:22.

immigration. If it is really true, as the observer is reporting today,

:07:23.:07:27.

that banks are on the move, and in a year's time there could be a

:07:28.:07:32.

significant collapse in the income we get from finance, the income that

:07:33.:07:36.

the Treasury gets, then public opinion might change. They may say,

:07:37.:07:47.

we don't want more immigration, but this isn't a price worth paying

:07:48.:07:50.

Everything tends to be seen through the Brexit lens at the moment.

:07:51.:07:57.

Things are not always as they seem. The Canadian- EU free trade

:07:58.:08:01.

agreement was about increasing free trade between the EU and Canada and

:08:02.:08:06.

therefore subject to the ratification of all members. Any

:08:07.:08:10.

deal we do will not give us the same access we have at the moment. The

:08:11.:08:15.

question is, how much will it be diminished? It may not be subject to

:08:16.:08:22.

the same ratification process. Absolutely right. Another

:08:23.:08:24.

unbelievably technical point that we still don't know is, if we can get

:08:25.:08:31.

this free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as our Brexit talks

:08:32.:08:35.

and deal, the divorce deal as well as the remarriage deal, then one

:08:36.:08:44.

gets signed off by QM V. The trade deal may still need all 28, all 27,

:08:45.:08:53.

including the people from the Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority

:08:54.:08:59.

of parliament. This is exactly why Theresa May would like the

:09:00.:09:03.

transitional deal to push this one deeper. I was surprised to hear

:09:04.:09:07.

Hilary Benn pushing this line this morning. The remainers have been all

:09:08.:09:11.

over the place. They wanted a vote after Article 50 had been triggered

:09:12.:09:16.

about the deal. Then they wanted a vote before Article 50. Now they are

:09:17.:09:24.

talking about a vote before article Article 50 is triggered about a

:09:25.:09:29.

trade deal. They need to make up their minds about what it is they

:09:30.:09:33.

are pushing for, and what their best hope of obstructing Brexit is, and

:09:34.:09:39.

stick with it. Something else we see through the Brexit lens, which isn't

:09:40.:09:44.

always helpful, is Calais. The French bulldozers will move in

:09:45.:09:48.

tomorrow. We will see some pretty disturbing scenes on the TV. We will

:09:49.:09:53.

see some horrible scenes. The government has handled this very

:09:54.:09:57.

badly. Having passed an amendment in April saying we would take something

:09:58.:10:03.

like 3000 children, a lot of those children have disappeared. Save the

:10:04.:10:06.

Children, one of the charities there, are very worried that people

:10:07.:10:10.

traffickers have been in there, and a lot of those children have

:10:11.:10:18.

vanished. We haven't sent social workers in. No preparations have

:10:19.:10:22.

been made what ever. You are raising an interesting point. We don't know

:10:23.:10:29.

how many we are meant to be taking. The huge argument has arisen over

:10:30.:10:33.

what the age is of some of the ones coming in. Is this another problem

:10:34.:10:40.

for the Home Office? To some extent. Didn't Theresa May 's too well to

:10:41.:10:45.

survive six weeks of this? Amber Rudd has been there for three

:10:46.:10:50.

months. It is clear that the Home Office didn't prepare for this. They

:10:51.:10:53.

didn't prepare for the age verification or when it will go It

:10:54.:11:01.

needs to be an perfect. We don't know how many we will take, because

:11:02.:11:07.

the Home Office will not say. I want to talk about airport capacity, but

:11:08.:11:11.

I won't, because I don't think we have anything to say about it until

:11:12.:11:16.

the statement on Tuesday from Transport Minister Grayling. When

:11:17.:11:21.

you look at the polls and see the decision on airport runway expansion

:11:22.:11:24.

being kicked into the long grass for a year, are we heading for an early

:11:25.:11:29.

election next year or not? I think Theresa May will do everything she

:11:30.:11:34.

can to avoid it. If there is an election before 2020, it is bound to

:11:35.:11:41.

be about Europe, and that is a much harder case for her to win than just

:11:42.:11:45.

a question of who is the best Prime Minister. She will have a tough

:11:46.:11:49.

time, because it will be a general election about in or out of the

:11:50.:11:54.

single market. Half of her party will peel away. How do she conduct a

:11:55.:11:59.

general election when the likes of Anna Soubry will not stand on the

:12:00.:12:05.

same platform? It will be difficult. But she may reach such a stalemate

:12:06.:12:14.

that she just calls one. No general election next year because it will

:12:15.:12:17.

split the Tory party. There will be won in 2019 when she cannot get

:12:18.:12:21.

Brexit through the House of Commons. You really can have too much of a

:12:22.:12:25.

good thing. I just want to show a little clip of the former Shadow

:12:26.:12:30.

Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly last night. Let's just watch this.

:12:31.:12:34.

There he is. Where is the hand? That is the

:12:35.:12:46.

worrying bit! We will no longer be saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair

:12:47.:12:54.

of hands! Can we agree on that? Remarkable that he was once the man

:12:55.:12:58.

most feared by David Cameron! Labour leader 2021. He has hit popular

:12:59.:13:06.

culture in the way that many few politicians do. Charm, gusto,

:13:07.:13:13.

bravery, no worries about being embarrassed. All the things that you

:13:14.:13:20.

don't like about being a politician. We have run out of time. You can get

:13:21.:13:22.

it on social media. Jo Coburn will be back

:13:23.:13:25.

with the Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here next

:13:26.:13:27.

Sunday at the same time. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:28.:13:31.

it's the Sunday Politics. Everyone's living these

:13:32.:14:04.

amazing lives, You're like a...

:14:05.:14:07.

Different person? Delve deeper.

:14:08.:14:18.

Ordinary Lives continues... They have something on me

:14:19.:14:27.

that I can actually remember. They have something on me

:14:28.:14:28.

that I can actually remember. The final chapter between

:14:29.:14:32.

Gibson and Spector.

:14:33.:14:37.

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