27/11/2016 Sunday Politics South West


27/11/2016

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

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Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?

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After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.

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Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency

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The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.

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Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms

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of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?

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Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet

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minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head.

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And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme

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Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news

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of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came

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to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.

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Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader

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as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked

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Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social

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justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"

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President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader

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as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death

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would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people

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finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".

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Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,

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Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader

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was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged

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I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the

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reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I

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noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to

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Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he

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was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,

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agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many

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people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been

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inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream

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consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this

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respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would

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be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.

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Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have

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looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection

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for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error

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dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?

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He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He

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wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually

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look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other

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countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a

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champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been

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utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have

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thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic

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failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when

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Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the

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debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any

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criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There

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were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would

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have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban

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solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It

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existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,

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who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday

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saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the

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world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He

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never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks

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ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The

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lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated

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stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was

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working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there

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will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet

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and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say

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it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism

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that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime

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Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to

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open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing

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brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.

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When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying

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the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as

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all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a

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leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either

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decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it

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was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure

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worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.

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There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they

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sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris

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Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to

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deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.

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And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr

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Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.

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That was what made it so fascinating.

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Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS

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in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020

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on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth

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Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling

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"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,

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but some of the proposals are already running into local

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opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.

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Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.

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But east of England ambulance call operators

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they're sending an early intervention vehicle

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with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.

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It's being piloted here for over 65s with

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When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be

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treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.

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Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,

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taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,

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So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided

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The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able

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to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,

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to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand

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where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how

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best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems

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that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.

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This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how

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You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.

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The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.

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What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.

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Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went

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through after broad public and political consultation

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with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.

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It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS

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trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.

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It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide

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The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS

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in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion

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worth of efficiencies across the country.

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In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health

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and care partnerships, and each one will provide

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a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,

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provide better services and save money.

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So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people

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in the health service and local government,

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The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending

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growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.

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STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way

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But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number

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of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle

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ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed

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This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his

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I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close

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all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out

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of the acute sector who are elderly and looking

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That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,

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All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,

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But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.

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The Government's sustainability and transformation plans

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for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.

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The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings

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within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.

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There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.

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Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week

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about the importance of community hospitals in general,

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These are proposals out to consultation.

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What could happen if these plans get blocked?

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If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come

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to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned

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deterioration and services becoming unstable and service

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The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement

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but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs

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are in the interests of local people.

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Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England

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to push through these controversial regional plans,

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which will soon face public scrutiny.

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We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,

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I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,

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Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of

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efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of

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independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22

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billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you

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drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have

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been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that

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some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community

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pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000

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pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and

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GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,

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which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a

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local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these

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efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from

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Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve

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health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable

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transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical

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health, mental health and social care, for those services to

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collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented

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system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground

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has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,

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the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By

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2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to

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redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the

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money in. So of course, getting these services working better

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together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would

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have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the

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last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is

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an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?

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Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22

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billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.

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But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they

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said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have

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changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by

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2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by

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20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually

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transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the

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commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been

:16:30.:16:33.

cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year

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project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the

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Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week

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there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the

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efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by

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2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now

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for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with

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everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers

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and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I

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had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they

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expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by

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now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?

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To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The

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budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like

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co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a

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plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in

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2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is

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committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently

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John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are

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talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current

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spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the

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money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If

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you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from

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the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?

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That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for

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Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to

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give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the

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Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do

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it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give

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the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like

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any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what

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the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.

:19:24.:19:30.

I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election

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with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has

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been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.

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You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not

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a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment

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to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting

:19:52.:19:55.

a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about

:19:56.:20:00.

4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that

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substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have

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access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to

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be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap

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in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what

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this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an

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efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we

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agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see

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productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through

:20:43.:20:49.

investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.

:20:50.:20:56.

One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They

:20:57.:21:03.

are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe

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that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that

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contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking

:21:11.:21:14.

about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30

:21:15.:21:21.

billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend

:21:22.:21:27.

more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper

:21:28.:21:31.

care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40

:21:32.:21:35.

billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the

:21:36.:21:40.

account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that

:21:41.:21:44.

and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with

:21:45.:21:48.

that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we

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are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the

:21:53.:21:56.

investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.

:21:57.:22:04.

The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in

:22:05.:22:09.

A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in

:22:10.:22:13.

hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save

:22:14.:22:17.

the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the

:22:18.:22:20.

Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What

:22:21.:22:25.

I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your

:22:26.:22:28.

reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi

:22:29.:22:33.

Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger

:22:34.:22:39.

of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree

:22:40.:22:46.

with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a

:22:47.:22:52.

result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just

:22:53.:22:56.

going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of

:22:57.:23:01.

these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see

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if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they

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have the support of local authorities because they now have a

:23:10.:23:11.

role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the

:23:12.:23:16.

right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.

:23:17.:23:20.

We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they

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don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,

:23:24.:23:29.

you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with

:23:30.:23:33.

finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are

:23:34.:23:39.

cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like

:23:40.:23:45.

5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector

:23:46.:23:49.

in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long

:23:50.:23:54.

term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very

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sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the

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sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,

:24:03.:24:07.

which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy

:24:08.:24:13.

nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of

:24:14.:24:19.

the other countries, European countries included, we need to put

:24:20.:24:24.

up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the

:24:25.:24:29.

Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me

:24:30.:24:35.

down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up

:24:36.:24:39.

with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European

:24:40.:24:43.

average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,

:24:44.:24:47.

but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need

:24:48.:24:53.

substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was

:24:54.:24:56.

extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the

:24:57.:25:00.

Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,

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whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to

:25:06.:25:09.

us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.

:25:10.:25:12.

Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations

:25:13.:25:14.

before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait

:25:15.:25:17.

for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote

:25:18.:25:19.

If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats

:25:20.:25:23.

and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU

:25:24.:25:25.

referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before

:25:26.:25:28.

And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested

:25:29.:25:31.

that the referendum result could be reversed.

:25:32.:25:34.

In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,

:25:35.:25:37.

Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,

:25:38.:25:40.

having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis

:25:41.:25:43.

John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting

:25:44.:25:49.

of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit

:25:50.:25:52.

were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".

:25:53.:25:54.

He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"

:25:55.:25:56.

That prompted the former Conservative leader

:25:57.:26:00.

Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.

:26:01.:26:03.

He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply

:26:04.:26:06.

because they disagree with the original result does

:26:07.:26:08.

seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."

:26:09.:26:13.

So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms

:26:14.:26:16.

of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?

:26:17.:26:21.

Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect

:26:22.:26:24.

the will of the people and that means they must have their say

:26:25.:26:28.

in a referendum on the terms of the deal."

:26:29.:26:31.

But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support

:26:32.:26:34.

One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.

:26:35.:26:40.

He backs the idea of a second referendum.

:26:41.:26:43.

But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,

:26:44.:26:46.

"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting

:26:47.:26:49.

To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum

:26:50.:26:57.

on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two

:26:58.:27:00.

In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,

:27:01.:27:03.

and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister

:27:04.:27:05.

Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have

:27:06.:27:17.

spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or

:27:18.:27:23.

you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the

:27:24.:27:29.

referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I

:27:30.:27:33.

said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we

:27:34.:27:37.

will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but

:27:38.:27:44.

we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the

:27:45.:27:50.

British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would

:27:51.:27:58.

then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's

:27:59.:28:02.

lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,

:28:03.:28:06.

you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on

:28:07.:28:10.

immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many

:28:11.:28:19.

fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be

:28:20.:28:24.

a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many

:28:25.:28:29.

occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different

:28:30.:28:34.

thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be

:28:35.:28:38.

true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the

:28:39.:28:41.

destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about

:28:42.:28:46.

the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be

:28:47.:28:51.

appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft

:28:52.:28:55.

Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more

:28:56.:28:59.

difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign

:29:00.:29:05.

but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on

:29:06.:29:10.

the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on

:29:11.:29:13.

what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and

:29:14.:29:17.

putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous

:29:18.:29:25.

idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an

:29:26.:29:29.

impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make

:29:30.:29:34.

sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard

:29:35.:29:39.

Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum

:29:40.:29:43.

campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means

:29:44.:29:48.

making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected

:29:49.:29:52.

politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting

:29:53.:29:56.

control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was

:29:57.:30:00.

clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million

:30:01.:30:06.

votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more

:30:07.:30:11.

than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14

:30:12.:30:16.

million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very

:30:17.:30:20.

clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we

:30:21.:30:25.

going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to

:30:26.:30:28.

trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better

:30:29.:30:31.

place. OK, I need to get a debate going.

:30:32.:30:41.

Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was

:30:42.:30:44.

going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a

:30:45.:30:47.

second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the

:30:48.:30:49.

worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a

:30:50.:30:54.

ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could

:30:55.:30:58.

go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the

:30:59.:31:01.

European Union is less important than the opinion of the British

:31:02.:31:05.

people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me

:31:06.:31:10.

precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain

:31:11.:31:16.

voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson

:31:17.:31:19.

and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the

:31:20.:31:24.

range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.

:31:25.:31:27.

There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,

:31:28.:31:31.

getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,

:31:32.:31:36.

this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.

:31:37.:31:44.

The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our

:31:45.:31:51.

laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of

:31:52.:31:54.

what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would

:31:55.:32:01.

be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the

:32:02.:32:06.

hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The

:32:07.:32:10.

biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British

:32:11.:32:17.

history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally

:32:18.:32:20.

proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a

:32:21.:32:26.

strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks

:32:27.:32:32.

like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.

:32:33.:32:43.

He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct

:32:44.:32:51.

possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a

:32:52.:32:55.

second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on

:32:56.:32:59.

ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British

:33:00.:33:03.

people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and

:33:04.:33:10.

keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to

:33:11.:33:19.

that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying

:33:20.:33:22.

attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have

:33:23.:33:33.

to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said

:33:34.:33:36.

that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,

:33:37.:33:42.

they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European

:33:43.:33:46.

Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the

:33:47.:33:52.

process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why

:33:53.:34:04.

Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to

:34:05.:34:07.

ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote

:34:08.:34:16.

by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it

:34:17.:34:27.

best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would

:34:28.:34:32.

have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because

:34:33.:34:37.

I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.

:34:38.:34:45.

Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The

:34:46.:34:51.

central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a

:34:52.:34:56.

destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if

:34:57.:35:01.

it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be

:35:02.:35:06.

undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on

:35:07.:35:09.

the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain

:35:10.:35:13.

members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs

:35:14.:35:19.

union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude

:35:20.:35:24.

towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the

:35:25.:35:27.

government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have

:35:28.:35:30.

no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental

:35:31.:35:36.

case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a

:35:37.:35:43.

clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment

:35:44.:35:50.

figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do

:35:51.:35:53.

to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not

:35:54.:36:00.

delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,

:36:01.:36:04.

wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people

:36:05.:36:09.

who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it

:36:10.:36:14.

will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the

:36:15.:36:18.

whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is

:36:19.:36:26.

very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the

:36:27.:36:30.

answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and

:36:31.:36:38.

French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it

:36:39.:36:45.

not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it

:36:46.:36:49.

would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I

:36:50.:36:52.

think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't

:36:53.:36:55.

been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in

:36:56.:36:59.

Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.

:37:00.:37:02.

They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic

:37:03.:37:07.

process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen

:37:08.:37:11.

suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the

:37:12.:37:19.

government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to

:37:20.:37:23.

listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,

:37:24.:37:32.

as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second

:37:33.:37:37.

referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it

:37:38.:37:40.

there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have

:37:41.:37:48.

eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!

:37:49.:37:51.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:52.:37:53.

hello, coming up on the Sunday in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:54.:38:14.

hello, coming up on the Sunday Politics in the south-west. The

:38:15.:38:16.

Chancellor has given ?1 million for the restoration of this old market,

:38:17.:38:21.

but has his Autumn Statement -- hopes for more than 1000 new jobs in

:38:22.:38:25.

the region? For the next 20 minutes enjoined by Conservative MP Gary

:38:26.:38:30.

Streeter and Labour MEP clear midi. Welcome back. The tautness MP Sarah

:38:31.:38:34.

Woollaston, chair of the health search committee, attacked the

:38:35.:38:36.

government for its decision not to increase social care funding in the

:38:37.:38:40.

Autumn Statement. With four Cornish care homes at the centre of a BBC

:38:41.:38:46.

panorama investigation this week, the Prime Minister was asked what

:38:47.:38:49.

she was doing to improve standards of care. Let us look at what the

:38:50.:38:58.

Labour Party did in their 13 years. They said they would deal with

:38:59.:39:05.

social care in the 1997 manifesto, introduced a Royal commission in

:39:06.:39:13.

1999, a Green paper in 2005, said they sort it in 2007, and another

:39:14.:39:19.

green paper in 2009. 13 years and they did nothing. Clear, she went on

:39:20.:39:24.

to say this Conservative government is actually doing things like

:39:25.:39:29.

introducing social care premiums. We saw in the last government that they

:39:30.:39:36.

were effectively ?4.9 billion worth of cuts to social care. So the point

:39:37.:39:42.

of getting social care right is the joined up nature. Everybody has

:39:43.:39:50.

talked about it for years. Yes, the question was what is being done, and

:39:51.:39:54.

it is much more that needs to be done to Pool B services together.

:39:55.:39:57.

saw from the investigation into saw from the investigation into

:39:58.:40:02.

those care homes in Cornwall, not only the problems that add existing

:40:03.:40:07.

system, but also the human outcomes of those problems. And that is why

:40:08.:40:12.

it is vital the government does more to address this. Did you shower

:40:13.:40:15.

Sarah Wallace and's disappointment there was not something significant

:40:16.:40:25.

on it? -- Wollaston. This has been talked about for the last two

:40:26.:40:29.

decades, and sciences enabling more babies to stay alive than ever

:40:30.:40:34.

before, often with serious medical issues. Lots of elderly people

:40:35.:40:38.

living on, needing medical attention. The cost of health and

:40:39.:40:42.

social peer is going up every year, and we have not yet found the right

:40:43.:40:48.

formula to meet the rise in demand. On Tuesday, the report commissioned

:40:49.:40:51.

by David Cameron on the feature of the region -- future of the region's

:40:52.:40:58.

railway, it is a big wish list with a big price tag attached. Attention

:40:59.:41:03.

will now be focused on the MPs in the region to see if and when they

:41:04.:41:08.

deliver. It is nearly three years since

:41:09.:41:12.

storms left the rail line at Dawlish dangling in midair. But this week

:41:13.:41:17.

there was a sense of deja vu. Once again the region's rail links are

:41:18.:41:21.

cut off from the rest of the country. Flooding here at Paoli

:41:22.:41:25.

Bridge means trains are not able to run between Devon and Somerset. We

:41:26.:41:31.

are four beaks into winter, it is a bit ridiculous, what will happen?

:41:32.:41:37.

They are not spending enough on infrastructure in this country. That

:41:38.:41:42.

is never anything proactive done, it is always reactive. Passengers

:41:43.:41:45.

should then be pleased that Council and business leaders presented their

:41:46.:41:49.

case for more rail investment to ministers in London this week. But

:41:50.:41:52.

for the peninsula rail task force, which should have been a Railtrack,

:41:53.:42:02.

ended up being a road trip instead. They will be doing ?2.5 billion

:42:03.:42:07.

worth of improvements, an alternative -- including an

:42:08.:42:11.

alternative route at Okehampton, and ?1.5 billion to knock 40 minutes off

:42:12.:42:18.

the journey time to Penzance. Yesterday the peninsula rail task

:42:19.:42:23.

force launched its report which was commissioned following the storm

:42:24.:42:25.

severing Devon and Cornwall Police might vital rail link. Minutes

:42:26.:42:29.

before the Autumn Statement, the Prime Minister raised hopes that the

:42:30.:42:34.

money could be forthcoming. Can I ask he exercises a little more

:42:35.:42:36.

patience and listens very carefully to what my right honourable friend

:42:37.:42:42.

the Chancellor says? But after that build-up, the Chancellor had nothing

:42:43.:42:48.

new to say. MPs were left clinging to the ?10 million for a Dawlish

:42:49.:42:52.

study that they had already been promised the week before. It is up

:42:53.:42:57.

to the Tory MPs to find their backbone and start fighting hard

:42:58.:43:02.

ball. Not just nice words and saying yes, please. Why do they keep voting

:43:03.:43:07.

tens of billions of pounds for HS2 going up north, when we do not even

:43:08.:43:11.

have railway system equal to the 20th century, let alone the 21st?

:43:12.:43:16.

The challenge they face is that passenger numbers are much higher in

:43:17.:43:19.

other parts of the country. Saudi government more than incentive to

:43:20.:43:26.

invest in the South East and North West, where the population density

:43:27.:43:31.

is greater. Also, it is not always clear whether rail provides the

:43:32.:43:34.

quickest service for the region's passengers. A study into the

:43:35.:43:38.

disruption caused by the closure of the line at Dawlish struggled to

:43:39.:43:42.

find businesses that suffered because of it. We tend to use

:43:43.:43:47.

passenger surveys asking them about the extent to which their journeys

:43:48.:43:52.

have been elongated, whether they have actually cancelled any of the

:43:53.:43:56.

journeys they have done. It has been difficult in the Dawlish case

:43:57.:44:01.

because on certain occasions the real replacement services are

:44:02.:44:05.

slightly faster than traditional rail. It will be at least two years

:44:06.:44:10.

before flood protection work at Cowley Bridge meanwhile the

:44:11.:44:15.

consultation on schemes to protect Dawlish from the elements continues.

:44:16.:44:21.

But this week the Torbay MP Kevin Foster admitted that a government

:44:22.:44:24.

commitment to fund improvements could be two years further down the

:44:25.:44:31.

line. Gary, a statement which was heavily

:44:32.:44:36.

trailed to be all about infrastructure, which it was if you

:44:37.:44:40.

live in Birmingham, Leeds, but nothing for the south-west. The 20

:44:41.:44:44.

year plan was only handed in to government on the Tuesday. But that

:44:45.:44:50.

timing was delivered it, just before the Autumn Statement. Yes, but no

:44:51.:44:54.

one expected the Autumn Statement to respond to it 24 hours later. We got

:44:55.:45:00.

extra money for infrastructure spending, and we have got to make

:45:01.:45:04.

sure we get our fair shower here in the south-west, but now we have a

:45:05.:45:07.

plan. We are saying to government that we know exactly what we want,

:45:08.:45:12.

and it is now time to stand and deliver. Lobbying over the next six

:45:13.:45:17.

and 12 months it will be fierce. The Transport Secretary is coming out to

:45:18.:45:22.

the region next Friday. He will be fiercely lobbied by me and others,

:45:23.:45:29.

and the narrative needs to be told. We have got to start again, but we

:45:30.:45:34.

will. You have indicated in the past that you might vote against HS2.

:45:35.:45:38.

When does that cut-off tipping point come? I will do whatever it takes to

:45:39.:45:43.

get our fair shower of funding to increment the 20 year plan. I am on

:45:44.:45:47.

record for saying that and I will deliver on its. I am not sure we

:45:48.:45:52.

need to vote on HS2 ever again. The legislation has gone through, they

:45:53.:45:55.

are now just getting on with the planning and building of it. I can

:45:56.:45:59.

promise you my highest commitment between now and the next general

:46:00.:46:03.

election in four years is to make sure we deliver on promises and

:46:04.:46:06.

commitments to getting a 21st century rail link for the

:46:07.:46:13.

south-west. Then is lobbying on this as a local MP. But there is no

:46:14.:46:15.

evidence that a Labour government would be delivering on this. -- Ben.

:46:16.:46:27.

It is up to the Tory Government. I was pushing for this as well because

:46:28.:46:30.

there was a commitment from labour around some of the rail

:46:31.:46:37.

infrastructure. But the point being, I hope Gary gets his way because we

:46:38.:46:43.

have seen too often, yes, whichever government is in, the infrastructure

:46:44.:46:48.

of the south-west has come second to the infrastructure that people talk

:46:49.:46:52.

about for up north in the country. And we desperately need to be

:46:53.:47:01.

prioritised. The fact that people have to drive up to present a rail

:47:02.:47:08.

plan is just a sad indictment of the lack of investment. In terms of the

:47:09.:47:12.

pace of this and the intensity of lobbying, we have reached the stage

:47:13.:47:16.

which is impossible to say, as it has been, we will wait for this

:47:17.:47:19.

report, wait for that report. They are all on the desk of the

:47:20.:47:24.

government now. On our debate on Tuesday, my final words where they

:47:25.:47:31.

is a time for promises, and a time for delivery. Isn't it a really big

:47:32.:47:41.

ask for the government to provide something to make sure it does not

:47:42.:47:46.

fall into the sea, and then 1.5 billion to shorten journeys beyond

:47:47.:47:50.

London? Resilience is vital, and we will get more investment in

:47:51.:47:57.

resilient issues. On-board connectivity, that is what the

:47:58.:48:00.

business community want, so they can be on their computers from Penzance

:48:01.:48:05.

to Paddington, which has got better, but it is not good enough. Reducing

:48:06.:48:18.

journey times, that is the big one. We heard about bigger populations,

:48:19.:48:26.

more passengers in other regions. Particularly for Labour, you will

:48:27.:48:29.

have your eye on the heartlands in the North and Midlands. As I say, it

:48:30.:48:39.

is about the infrastructure, the investment we need down here. My job

:48:40.:48:44.

as a Labour politician representing the south-west of England is to

:48:45.:48:51.

fight for the importance of investing in that infrastructure.

:48:52.:48:54.

Because without it, we have seen all the difficulties we have. The

:48:55.:48:59.

south-west feels something like it is a very long way away from London,

:49:00.:49:04.

and we are not taken into account. But would not have the volume of

:49:05.:49:10.

passengers on the trains and the number of voters, which is relevant

:49:11.:49:19.

because it is political. We have a lot of capability down in the

:49:20.:49:23.

region, so we have ability to do things digitally, to develop the

:49:24.:49:27.

kind of digital economy down here, but sooner or later you do have that

:49:28.:49:31.

necessity for the hard infrastructure from people to be

:49:32.:49:36.

able to get easily between centres, as well as goods, very quickly, was

:49:37.:49:45.

the Prime Minister badly briefed, she was building people up for

:49:46.:49:49.

something in the statement? Yes, she was. They got that wrong. OK. It was

:49:50.:49:55.

not just rail campaigners who were disappointed, the region's local

:49:56.:49:58.

enterprise partnerships were holding their breath to see if they would

:49:59.:50:02.

get the funding they asked for to grow the economy. It is still

:50:03.:50:07.

unclear, but it looks certain to be a poor outcome which could threaten

:50:08.:50:09.

the creation of more than 1000 new jobs.

:50:10.:50:16.

One of the few real tangible examples of where the Chancellor put

:50:17.:50:20.

his hand in his pocket and pulled out some real money for the

:50:21.:50:24.

south-west was a ?1 million investment for a new digital

:50:25.:50:28.

creative space in the old market Hall, here in Devonport. Is it fair

:50:29.:50:34.

to say this ?1 million was something of a surprise? It was, indeed. We

:50:35.:50:38.

haven't a sort of slight inkling that it might be possible, -- we

:50:39.:50:44.

had. But it was a surprise, and there was a lot of delight in the

:50:45.:50:49.

office. When it opens in 2018, the ?5 million scheme will reach space

:50:50.:50:55.

for learning, skills, events research, and the first 15 metre

:50:56.:51:02.

by and large the Autumn Statement by and large the Autumn Statement

:51:03.:51:11.

had a hollow ring to it. 191 million for growth in the region, that was

:51:12.:51:15.

just a fraction of what was hoped for. The ?191 million will be handed

:51:16.:51:20.

to six local enterprise partnerships in the greater south-west. We do not

:51:21.:51:26.

know how it will be divided, and an even split would be just under ?32

:51:27.:51:31.

million each. Of the three in a region, Dorset would not say how

:51:32.:51:35.

much they have asked for. We do know that Cornwall and the Isles of

:51:36.:51:39.

Scilly bid for ?127 million. They do not yet know what they will get.

:51:40.:51:46.

Devon and Somerset bid for ?109 million. They reckon they could

:51:47.:51:50.

receive as little as 15 to ?20 million of that. Probably about 30

:51:51.:51:54.

projects have been anticipated as part of the bigger funding pot that

:51:55.:51:58.

had been applied for. If we only going to get a lower amount of

:51:59.:52:02.

money, and this is still subject to negotiation, then it might be that

:52:03.:52:06.

we're only going to build less than ten of those, which is hugely

:52:07.:52:10.

?109 million bid for Bevan and ?109 million bid for Bevan and

:52:11.:52:16.

Somerset could have created up to 1500 jobs, but if they only receive

:52:17.:52:20.

the ?20 million they are expecting, then the new jobs figure could fall

:52:21.:52:26.

to 300. The final figure should become clear in the coming months,

:52:27.:52:30.

but business leaders here in the far south-west are worried we will get

:52:31.:52:33.

less money because councils are refusing to have an elected mayor.

:52:34.:52:38.

Secretary Sergei Javid Saint clear Secretary Sergei Javid Saint clear

:52:39.:52:43.

on a visit to the region that if there was no mere there would be...

:52:44.:53:02.

Sajid Javid. They visit Athens between what some areas receive and

:53:03.:53:07.

what others receive. Those willing to accept a, it is expected they

:53:08.:53:20.

will get more than others. -- to accept a mayor.

:53:21.:53:26.

To discuss this we're joined by John Hart, Conservative leader of Devon

:53:27.:53:29.

County Council, intimately involved in the Devon and Somerset devolution

:53:30.:53:34.

bed. All players are adamant they will not have a mayor. In refusing

:53:35.:53:44.

to accept a mayor, if you denying investment to the region, which is

:53:45.:53:49.

happening now? They are trying to finalise those local authorities

:53:50.:53:52.

that are prepared to run with a mayor. And what they are saying to

:53:53.:53:55.

them is you have got to come forward with some plans. Those of us with a

:53:56.:54:02.

strong combined authority have been told we have got to hang on, we are

:54:03.:54:13.

next in line. A few weeks ago, the meeting with the secretary, he was

:54:14.:54:23.

clear that in order to these even greater investment would need to

:54:24.:54:27.

have a mayor. But that is wanting us to join together as one unit, which

:54:28.:54:33.

is impossible. Going back to the mayor for a minute. I said to the

:54:34.:54:38.

Minister bluntly, you're talking about us having a mayor. We have 17

:54:39.:54:42.

local authorities working together closely. The amount of money putting

:54:43.:54:48.

up in front of us is not worth us arguing about. Givers the powers and

:54:49.:54:53.

we can get the job is done. On this growth fund money it seems perfectly

:54:54.:54:57.

clear that in terms of this money being awarded now, those areas which

:54:58.:55:02.

have agreed to a mayor will get better funding. We do not know that.

:55:03.:55:06.

But what we do know is that in the south-west we're getting over ?190

:55:07.:55:11.

million out of a 1.8 million pot. 500 million of that is going into

:55:12.:55:18.

the Midlands, so we are being done down. You made the point about

:55:19.:55:26.

centres of population and economic activity, and we do not score as

:55:27.:55:31.

highly as other regions. I am still optimistic that this region will get

:55:32.:55:34.

a good deal out of the growth deal. But we know the total pot, and if

:55:35.:55:39.

that is divided equally, it could be about 30 million each, which is far

:55:40.:55:43.

short. We never get everything we ask for. People were talking about

:55:44.:55:48.

15 to 20 million, a few days ago, but we will get more. But it is

:55:49.:55:53.

massively less than the pot they have asked for. And when you see

:55:54.:55:58.

what Devon and Cornwall need three quarters of the total pot. Let us

:55:59.:56:04.

wait and see. What is your view of an elected mayor, I got the

:56:05.:56:07.

impression you were coming round to the idea? Most members of Parliament

:56:08.:56:13.

saying it is a matter for the local authorities, and we have been

:56:14.:56:16.

working with them behind the scenes. An excellent bid has been put

:56:17.:56:20.

forward, and it is unfortunate that is not getting more attention from

:56:21.:56:24.

government. The minister replied during your debate, praised the MPs,

:56:25.:56:32.

but said it is not evident the unity is shared down the tree of local

:56:33.:56:35.

government. It might be worth reflecting whether that has an

:56:36.:56:39.

impact on the long-term development. We wrote one letter to the minister,

:56:40.:56:44.

I wrote a second one after the Exeter meeting. We have written a

:56:45.:56:47.

third one yesterday because there was nothing in the Autumn Statement

:56:48.:56:55.

referring to the Devon and Somerset area. We are waiting for a reply.

:56:56.:57:00.

Clear, the whole business of mayor started under Labour, and I do --

:57:01.:57:05.

ironically it is Labour councils who have been rushing to accept the

:57:06.:57:10.

government's offers, and in Conservative offices, they do not

:57:11.:57:17.

want it. I would not dream on responding on behalf of John and

:57:18.:57:21.

other colleagues. The crucial part which has been touched on is the

:57:22.:57:28.

powers that go with the position. It is the powers and the money, so

:57:29.:57:34.

being able to deliver change, what it seems with some of these

:57:35.:57:37.

proposals is there is talk about the position, but not about what the

:57:38.:57:43.

position will do for people and how the change will be affected. If you

:57:44.:57:49.

create a position with nothing behind it, you are actually creating

:57:50.:57:54.

something to fail. John, would you possibly go for this week mayor, the

:57:55.:58:08.

Bristol area has decided on? I am opposed to the concept. If we turn

:58:09.:58:15.

out for a mayor per Devon and Somerset, there would be a 10%

:58:16.:58:23.

turnout for voting time now for the regular round-up of the week. -- 10%

:58:24.:58:31.

turnout for voting. Southwest Ukip MEP William Dartmouth

:58:32.:58:35.

wades into the debate about who wades into the debate about who

:58:36.:58:38.

should be the UK's ambassador to the US. Nigel Farage is the most

:58:39.:58:43.

patriotic person I know. He would be not just the obvious appointment,

:58:44.:58:47.

but the outstanding appointment. Cornwall's air ambulance gets ?1

:58:48.:58:50.

million in the Autumn Statement. The money comes from the fines

:58:51.:58:56.

levied on banks. Torbay could get its own lottery. The council wants

:58:57.:59:00.

to set up an online drop to find things it is struggling to pay for.

:59:01.:59:02.

One ticket a week, ?1 a time, we One ticket a week, ?1 a time, we

:59:03.:59:07.

think the concept is good but simple. Should Jersey's prisoners be

:59:08.:59:16.

allowed to vote? And south-west councils are praised

:59:17.:59:20.

for protecting bees. Friends of the Earth wants others to follow the

:59:21.:59:25.

lead. We want to determine national action to ban pesticides harmful to

:59:26.:59:33.

bees. Clear, you work alongside North

:59:34.:59:38.

Nigel Farage and William Dartmouth as MEPs. Is Nigel Farage ambassador

:59:39.:59:47.

material? I don't think so. I don't think there are many people who

:59:48.:59:51.

would suggest diplomacy was at the top end of his skills. But this

:59:52.:59:59.

suggestion he does seem to have -- this suggestion he seems to have

:00:00.:00:02.

close links with Donald Trump and his entourage, that could be useful.

:00:03.:00:06.

But the job of the ambassadors to represent the British people's

:00:07.:00:10.

interests in Washington, and Nigel Farage has a very narrow base and a

:00:11.:00:15.

narrow set of interests. I do not see that he is a man, I would not

:00:16.:00:25.

want him to be representing me. It seems that pantomime season has come

:00:26.:00:29.

early this year, I do not know why anyone takes it seriously! He would

:00:30.:00:35.

be the ambassador of Outer Mongolia, but not Washington! Just before we

:00:36.:00:39.

hand you back to London, you would like to apologise for saying last

:00:40.:00:44.

week that Cheryl Murray was a fan of a new constituency crossing the

:00:45.:00:46.

Devon and Cornwall Police. She has asked us to make it clear that while

:00:47.:00:52.

she supports the government's plan for new boundaries, she feels

:00:53.:00:54.

unhappy about the change. That is the Sunday Politics in the South

:00:55.:00:56.

have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to

:00:57.:01:00.

you. Is Theresa May serious

:01:01.:01:06.

about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's

:01:07.:01:08.

successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off

:01:09.:01:12.

a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the

:01:13.:01:40.

executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in

:01:41.:01:42.

the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if

:01:43.:01:47.

they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband

:01:48.:01:50.

proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She

:01:51.:02:00.

is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an

:02:01.:02:03.

apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up

:02:04.:02:07.

for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes

:02:08.:02:11.

back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and

:02:12.:02:14.

becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the

:02:15.:02:21.

country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures

:02:22.:02:23.

you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense

:02:24.:02:30.

of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her

:02:31.:02:33.

own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the

:02:34.:02:36.

board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback

:02:37.:02:44.

position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into

:02:45.:02:52.

some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever

:02:53.:02:56.

they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When

:02:57.:02:59.

you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the

:03:00.:03:04.

ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the

:03:05.:03:09.

company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you

:03:10.:03:16.

kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of

:03:17.:03:22.

that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about

:03:23.:03:27.

this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party

:03:28.:03:30.

conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government

:03:31.:03:35.

can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and

:03:36.:03:40.

Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the

:03:41.:03:43.

internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C

:03:44.:03:50.

Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is

:03:51.:03:54.

the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a

:03:55.:03:58.

report which came out with similar proposals, which were never

:03:59.:04:02.

implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business

:04:03.:04:08.

leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are

:04:09.:04:12.

problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess

:04:13.:04:17.

is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the

:04:18.:04:19.

implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some

:04:20.:04:25.

business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on

:04:26.:04:31.

the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it

:04:32.:04:34.

does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning

:04:35.:04:36.

ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a

:04:37.:04:42.

great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any

:04:43.:04:44.

suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners

:04:45.:04:50.

get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong

:04:51.:04:54.

with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the

:04:55.:04:59.

higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make

:05:00.:05:01.

that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it.

:05:02.:05:07.

Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There

:05:08.:05:10.

was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on

:05:11.:05:13.

boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But

:05:14.:05:19.

quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that

:05:20.:05:26.

was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering

:05:27.:05:28.

shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they

:05:29.:05:36.

hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic

:05:37.:05:40.

argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is

:05:41.:05:45.

that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to

:05:46.:05:50.

Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done

:05:51.:05:55.

it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is

:05:56.:06:00.

it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In

:06:01.:06:06.

Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of

:06:07.:06:12.

showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go

:06:13.:06:21.

with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result

:06:22.:06:26.

tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne

:06:27.:06:32.

Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next

:06:33.:06:37.

leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall

:06:38.:06:42.

and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul

:06:43.:06:45.

Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household

:06:46.:06:50.

name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and

:06:51.:06:56.

find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip

:06:57.:07:01.

together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If

:07:02.:07:09.

anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the

:07:10.:07:13.

thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It

:07:14.:07:18.

would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting

:07:19.:07:22.

Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North

:07:23.:07:30.

America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the

:07:31.:07:33.

chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the

:07:34.:07:38.

north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage.

:07:39.:07:42.

But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it.

:07:43.:07:48.

The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know

:07:49.:07:54.

the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would

:07:55.:07:56.

suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be

:07:57.:08:01.

honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result.

:08:02.:08:05.

Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call

:08:06.:08:11.

a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty

:08:12.:08:15.

Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it

:08:16.:08:21.

can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The

:08:22.:08:25.

number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which

:08:26.:08:33.

should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a

:08:34.:08:37.

debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and

:08:38.:08:41.

they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a

:08:42.:08:45.

powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But

:08:46.:08:49.

he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond

:08:50.:08:53.

in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it

:08:54.:08:59.

turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a

:09:00.:09:03.

by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will

:09:04.:09:08.

know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU

:09:09.:09:12.

referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping

:09:13.:09:18.

Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on

:09:19.:09:21.

for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage

:09:22.:09:26.

to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum

:09:27.:09:29.

despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the

:09:30.:09:37.

party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have

:09:38.:09:42.

absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit

:09:43.:09:46.

of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and

:09:47.:09:51.

people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand

:09:52.:09:56.

that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this

:09:57.:10:03.

one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a

:10:04.:10:11.

period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the

:10:12.:10:14.

Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near

:10:15.:10:20.

moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in

:10:21.:10:24.

this shapeless political world we are in are going to become

:10:25.:10:29.

significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night

:10:30.:10:32.

yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare.

:10:33.:10:38.

Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early

:10:39.:10:42.

hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I

:10:43.:10:47.

want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this

:10:48.:10:52.

morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually

:10:53.:10:56.

cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that

:10:57.:10:58.

all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and

:10:59.:11:09.

physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts,

:11:10.:11:12.

particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the

:11:13.:11:16.

mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that

:11:17.:11:20.

we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So

:11:21.:11:27.

economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his

:11:28.:11:30.

forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert

:11:31.:11:37.

forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50,

:11:38.:11:42.

which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You

:11:43.:11:46.

would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios,

:11:47.:11:52.

and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if

:11:53.:11:59.

governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the

:12:00.:12:03.

basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to

:12:04.:12:08.

go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast

:12:09.:12:14.

will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are

:12:15.:12:16.

navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it

:12:17.:12:22.

was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these

:12:23.:12:25.

forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put

:12:26.:12:33.

the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a

:12:34.:12:43.

clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up

:12:44.:12:46.

with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't

:12:47.:12:50.

trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who

:12:51.:12:55.

borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip

:12:56.:12:58.

Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence

:12:59.:13:03.

Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a

:13:04.:13:09.

huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically

:13:10.:13:13.

said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a

:13:14.:13:19.

very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a

:13:20.:13:24.

department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else

:13:25.:13:28.

thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are

:13:29.:13:32.

part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more

:13:33.:13:34.

Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One

:13:35.:13:36.

next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:37.:13:40.

it's the Sunday Politics. to signify the Africans

:13:41.:14:14.

who were here.

:14:15.:14:18.

Andrew Neil and Lucie Fisher present the latest political news, interviews and debate. They is joined by shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth MP, Liberal Democrat peer Lord Paddy Ashdown, the founder of Cobra Beer Lord Karan Bilimoria, and the founder of Wetherspoons Tim Martin. The political panel comprises Isabel Oakeshott, Tom Newton Dunn and Steve Richards.


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