18/12/2016 Sunday Politics South West


18/12/2016

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LineFromTo

Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:39.:00:40.

Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.

:00:41.:00:42.

Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum

:00:43.:00:45.

by forcing a second vote before we leave?

:00:46.:00:48.

Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be

:00:49.:00:51.

pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".

:00:52.:00:55.

Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business

:00:56.:00:58.

It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"

:00:59.:01:04.

but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,

:01:05.:01:07.

Are we blowing too hot and cold on wind power?

:01:08.:01:14.

And not just for Christmas - what should happen to churches

:01:15.:01:17.

And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer

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and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin,

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They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme.

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First this morning, some say they will fight

:01:43.:01:48.

for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those

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who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British

:01:52.:01:54.

people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum -

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The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have

:01:58.:02:01.

tried to amend European Parliament resolutions.

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The original resolution called on the European Parliament

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to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens

:02:06.:02:09.

of the United Kingdom to leave the EU".

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He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish

:02:25.:02:29.

must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1%

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The amendments were proposed in October,

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but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels

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Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month.

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The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February.

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Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed

:02:53.:02:55.

Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try

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and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was

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simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months

:03:10.:03:13.

ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different

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newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort

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to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to

:03:25.:03:30.

rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You

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would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges?

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I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory

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referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a

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questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum,

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it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking

:03:56.:03:58.

the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a

:03:59.:04:03.

very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who

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said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save

:04:08.:04:12.

money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and

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our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But

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your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is

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to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would

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respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to

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be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain

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money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government

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said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need

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to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the

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single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options

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should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will

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be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more

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illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a

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report about future treaty amendments down the road for years

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to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side

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reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will

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you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the

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text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if

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the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you

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mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments,

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was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of

:06:06.:06:10.

the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European

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Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of

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action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and

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disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to

:06:26.:06:30.

think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you

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might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be

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clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European

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Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am

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acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating

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things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out

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to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are

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going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the

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shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable,

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in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is

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implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about

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whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because

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that has to take account of the future framework of relationships

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with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That

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means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be

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outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very

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damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the

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rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the

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customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give

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us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is

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not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the

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results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see

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that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the

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divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget

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for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single

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market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will

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know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be

:08:33.:08:35.

damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a

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minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider

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the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to

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leave it there but thank you for joining us.

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Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what

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happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview

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illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach

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taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one

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breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action

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subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are

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sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to

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happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists

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on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public

:09:34.:09:39.

opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together

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to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take

:09:46.:09:52.

moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every

:09:53.:09:57.

single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether

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it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not

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think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in

:10:12.:10:17.

the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to

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question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these

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things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he

:10:26.:10:29.

wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you

:10:30.:10:33.

can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But

:10:34.:10:38.

the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad

:10:39.:10:43.

deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is

:10:44.:10:50.

implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we

:10:51.:10:53.

are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a

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minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going

:10:58.:11:02.

to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five,

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six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage

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Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,

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or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of

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2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa

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May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that

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Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I

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recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical

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drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't

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think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very

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long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we

:12:05.:12:08.

would stay in the customs union after Brexit.

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There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff

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setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at

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all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it

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is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the

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customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the

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cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a

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member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would

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make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs

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union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as

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binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would

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suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to

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do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that

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is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his

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opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in

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Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury

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PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is

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Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the

:13:31.:13:37.

customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the

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customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is

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proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do

:13:49.:13:53.

free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade

:13:54.:14:01.

deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment

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but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade

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deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line

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for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought

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Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to

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suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an

:14:23.:14:27.

argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he

:14:28.:14:35.

wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet

:14:36.:14:39.

about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country

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we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,

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but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look

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at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is

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happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I

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think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it

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becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we

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are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this

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country. So, we've had a warning this week

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that it could take ten years to do a trade deal

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with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand

:15:24.:15:26.

trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first

:15:27.:15:27.

countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal

:15:28.:15:30.

with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told

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us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film

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for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High

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Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined

:15:52.:15:53.

the European Union, Now I'm in the job,

:15:54.:15:56.

the UK is leaving. Australia supported

:15:57.:16:04.

Britain remaining a member of the European Union,

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but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,

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we hope that Britain will get on with the process

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of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make

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the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,

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Australia approached the British Government

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with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,

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to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian

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governments have already established a working group to explore a future,

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ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide

:16:42.:16:43.

great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase

:16:44.:16:55.

British-made cars for less We would give British

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households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,

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so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce

:17:07.:17:12.

when the equivalent British or Australian households would have

:17:13.:17:16.

access to British products Free-trade agreements

:17:17.:17:23.

are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source

:17:24.:17:35.

of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests

:17:36.:17:40.

over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement

:17:41.:17:46.

would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade

:17:47.:17:49.

agreements are not just about trade and investment,

:17:50.:17:54.

they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations

:17:55.:17:58.

often work more closely together in other fields including security,

:17:59.:18:02.

the spread of democracy We may have preferred

:18:03.:18:06.

the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK

:18:07.:18:19.

to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can

:18:20.:18:22.

be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade

:18:23.:18:24.

agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement

:18:25.:18:27.

with the United States This is one of the reasons why

:18:28.:18:29.

the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years

:18:30.:18:41.

and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's

:18:42.:18:44.

vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help

:18:45.:18:54.

in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The

:18:55.:19:24.

Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal

:19:25.:19:27.

with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is

:19:28.:19:33.

complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.

:19:34.:19:38.

The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual

:19:39.:19:44.

trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with

:19:45.:19:49.

the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary

:19:50.:19:54.

examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking

:19:55.:20:00.

already, we have set up a joint working group with the British

:20:01.:20:03.

Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what

:20:04.:20:06.

questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have

:20:07.:20:13.

formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no

:20:14.:20:19.

free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long

:20:20.:20:22.

and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian

:20:23.:20:29.

agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its

:20:30.:20:35.

access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,

:20:36.:20:39.

is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a

:20:40.:20:45.

scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union

:20:46.:20:48.

and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.

:20:49.:20:53.

But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but

:20:54.:20:59.

one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain

:21:00.:21:04.

leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has

:21:05.:21:08.

always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not

:21:09.:21:13.

happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European

:21:14.:21:19.

Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality

:21:20.:21:25.

which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international

:21:26.:21:27.

relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.

:21:28.:21:33.

It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose

:21:34.:21:36.

that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped

:21:37.:21:42.

out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a

:21:43.:21:45.

free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is

:21:46.:21:50.

about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless

:21:51.:21:56.

you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that

:21:57.:22:01.

case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and

:22:02.:22:06.

that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of

:22:07.:22:10.

negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up

:22:11.:22:15.

nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this

:22:16.:22:19.

free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other

:22:20.:22:25.

than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both

:22:26.:22:29.

free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not

:22:30.:22:33.

think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the

:22:34.:22:38.

UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to

:22:39.:22:43.

Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot

:22:44.:22:47.

of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years

:22:48.:22:53.

is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has

:22:54.:22:58.

made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal

:22:59.:23:03.

is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin

:23:04.:23:07.

and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we

:23:08.:23:12.

returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country

:23:13.:23:16.

rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we

:23:17.:23:24.

will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the

:23:25.:23:27.

transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have

:23:28.:23:31.

other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate

:23:32.:23:36.

would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to

:23:37.:23:41.

achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a

:23:42.:23:45.

free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is

:23:46.:23:51.

more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with

:23:52.:23:56.

China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and

:23:57.:24:01.

they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing

:24:02.:24:09.

with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think

:24:10.:24:13.

Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there

:24:14.:24:19.

is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and

:24:20.:24:23.

the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.

:24:24.:24:29.

So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct

:24:30.:24:33.

barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved

:24:34.:24:38.

in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade

:24:39.:24:45.

system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United

:24:46.:24:48.

Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European

:24:49.:24:54.

Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will

:24:55.:24:59.

try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly

:25:00.:25:03.

commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a

:25:04.:25:08.

free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the

:25:09.:25:12.

Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our

:25:13.:25:18.

present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate

:25:19.:25:22.

against any country. The European Union's free movement means you

:25:23.:25:27.

discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.

:25:28.:25:31.

It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building

:25:32.:25:34.

of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it

:25:35.:25:37.

more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.

:25:38.:25:39.

Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis

:25:40.:25:41.

of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?

:25:42.:25:44.

40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.

:25:45.:25:57.

Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.

:25:58.:26:04.

It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions

:26:05.:26:10.

about air pollution, that this is a public health

:26:11.:26:12.

emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,

:26:13.:26:16.

But how bad is air quality in Britain really?

:26:17.:26:24.

Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works

:26:25.:26:28.

at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.

:26:29.:26:30.

He has been looking into the recent claims

:26:31.:26:32.

It's a problem and it affects people's health.

:26:33.:26:38.

But when people start talking about the numbers

:26:39.:26:40.

of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.

:26:41.:26:43.

There have been tremendous improvements in air quality

:26:44.:26:48.

There is a lot less pollution than there used to be

:26:49.:26:53.

and none of that is coming through in the public

:26:54.:26:56.

So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels

:26:57.:27:00.

of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?

:27:01.:27:03.

It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution

:27:04.:27:06.

on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who

:27:07.:27:08.

It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening

:27:09.:27:13.

To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit

:27:14.:27:19.

I asked him about the data on which these claims

:27:20.:27:24.

They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities

:27:25.:27:29.

First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure

:27:30.:27:36.

29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000

:27:37.:27:42.

I will just talk about this group for a start.

:27:43.:27:50.

These are what are known as attributable deaths.

:27:51.:27:54.

Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.

:27:55.:27:58.

Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this

:27:59.:28:01.

was based on a study of US cities and they found out that

:28:02.:28:06.

by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had

:28:07.:28:09.

a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.

:28:10.:28:16.

They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying

:28:17.:28:21.

each year for each small increase in pollution.

:28:22.:28:26.

So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise

:28:27.:28:29.

it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises

:28:30.:28:32.

the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.

:28:33.:28:38.

So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000

:28:39.:28:41.

Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.

:28:42.:28:47.

And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths

:28:48.:28:52.

How much should we invest in cycling?

:28:53.:28:59.

Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?

:29:00.:29:02.

We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,

:29:03.:29:06.

but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?

:29:07.:29:10.

I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment

:29:11.:29:15.

and for air pollution that they don't really

:29:16.:29:16.

see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.

:29:17.:29:23.

Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing

:29:24.:29:25.

London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

:29:26.:29:27.

If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,

:29:28.:29:33.

that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.

:29:34.:29:35.

If you are poor and you are in social class five,

:29:36.:29:38.

compared to social class one, that would take seven

:29:39.:29:40.

If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.

:29:41.:29:45.

Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all

:29:46.:29:48.

of the cars in London and all of the road transport,

:29:49.:29:51.

we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air

:29:52.:29:54.

pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.

:29:55.:29:59.

There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,

:30:00.:30:02.

but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact

:30:03.:30:05.

on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making

:30:06.:30:08.

And we are joined now by the Executive Director

:30:09.:30:19.

You have called pollution and national crisis and a health

:30:20.:30:37.

emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are

:30:38.:30:41.

remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the

:30:42.:30:51.

studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the

:30:52.:30:57.

UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air

:30:58.:31:01.

pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if

:31:02.:31:06.

you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is

:31:07.:31:09.

impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of

:31:10.:31:13.

solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is

:31:14.:31:23.

down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which

:31:24.:31:30.

we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from

:31:31.:31:35.

the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is

:31:36.:31:39.

something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.

:31:40.:31:46.

If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of

:31:47.:31:54.

the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really

:31:55.:32:03.

worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe

:32:04.:32:08.

good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far

:32:09.:32:13.

from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is

:32:14.:32:21.

it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the

:32:22.:32:27.

last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health

:32:28.:32:31.

Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they

:32:32.:32:35.

need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if

:32:36.:32:39.

you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if

:32:40.:32:43.

you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities

:32:44.:32:48.

and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very

:32:49.:32:51.

high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors

:32:52.:32:56.

and many studies by London University showing this to be true.

:32:57.:33:02.

The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of

:33:03.:33:06.

pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is

:33:07.:33:11.

causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.

:33:12.:33:15.

The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and

:33:16.:33:19.

there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we

:33:20.:33:24.

have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution

:33:25.:33:29.

causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is

:33:30.:33:36.

40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.

:33:37.:33:46.

Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are

:33:47.:33:50.

talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air

:33:51.:33:55.

pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to

:33:56.:34:00.

phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner

:34:01.:34:03.

tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and

:34:04.:34:07.

clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had

:34:08.:34:11.

the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to

:34:12.:34:19.

me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most

:34:20.:34:24.

polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking

:34:25.:34:30.

at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure

:34:31.:34:36.

which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical

:34:37.:34:41.

effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is

:34:42.:34:51.

everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of

:34:52.:34:54.

people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,

:34:55.:34:58.

but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air

:34:59.:35:03.

pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more

:35:04.:35:09.

individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be

:35:10.:35:18.

premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be

:35:19.:35:22.

by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing

:35:23.:35:23.

difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke

:35:24.:35:33.

and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do

:35:34.:35:41.

you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined

:35:42.:35:49.

that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.

:35:50.:35:59.

But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000

:36:00.:36:04.

deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by

:36:05.:36:08.

that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do

:36:09.:36:13.

something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly

:36:14.:36:17.

caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem

:36:18.:36:22.

of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I

:36:23.:36:26.

am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another

:36:27.:36:34.

claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe

:36:35.:36:39.

clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have

:36:40.:36:45.

also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50

:36:46.:36:49.

cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you

:36:50.:36:56.

look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the

:36:57.:36:59.

actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent

:37:00.:37:02.

effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in

:37:03.:37:09.

terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am

:37:10.:37:14.

throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed

:37:15.:37:18.

that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and

:37:19.:37:23.

that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us

:37:24.:37:26.

that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does

:37:27.:37:30.

take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine

:37:31.:37:35.

months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten

:37:36.:37:39.

years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a

:37:40.:37:43.

piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken

:37:44.:37:48.

it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the

:37:49.:37:51.

professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the

:37:52.:37:57.

thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the

:37:58.:38:01.

impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young

:38:02.:38:07.

children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,

:38:08.:38:11.

this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the

:38:12.:38:16.

underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not

:38:17.:38:20.

arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate

:38:21.:38:25.

things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree

:38:26.:38:30.

with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I

:38:31.:38:36.

absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been

:38:37.:38:39.

made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think

:38:40.:38:44.

the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,

:38:45.:38:48.

diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can

:38:49.:38:55.

get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see

:38:56.:38:58.

us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.

:38:59.:39:00.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:01.:39:03.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:39:04.:39:05.

Coming up on the Sunday Politics here in the South West...

:39:06.:39:19.

As 2016 draws its final breath - how fair blows the wind for renewables?

:39:20.:39:25.

And when O Come All Ye Faithful turns into Silent Night,

:39:26.:39:28.

what should happen to churches which are no longer

:39:29.:39:31.

And for the next 20 minutes, I'm joined by Exeter's Labour MP

:39:32.:39:38.

Ben Bradshaw and the Conservative East Devon MP Hugo Swire.

:39:39.:39:42.

At a time of year when many of us are contemplating driving

:39:43.:39:47.

home for Christmas, Devon County Councillors have

:39:48.:39:50.

approved a controversial new route for one of the region's key roads,

:39:51.:39:54.

Nearly 1,000 people locally signed a petition against the scheme

:39:55.:40:01.

which will go through an area of outstanding natural beauty.

:40:02.:40:05.

The local MP Neil Parish has also withdrawn his support and speaking

:40:06.:40:09.

to the BBC earlier this week, didn't take kindly to his fellow

:40:10.:40:12.

MP, and our guest today, Hugo Swire giving his view.

:40:13.:40:16.

I think in fairness, I don't think I would comment

:40:17.:40:19.

on what is happening in Hugo Swire's constituency.

:40:20.:40:22.

I therefore feel that it is my constituency and I have

:40:23.:40:25.

to deal with everybody, not only those that want the road,

:40:26.:40:28.

but those who will be affected by the routes and the orange route

:40:29.:40:31.

still affects a lots of people and I have to have a balance

:40:32.:40:35.

between getting the environment right and getting the road right.

:40:36.:40:39.

So, Hugo, you vocally backed this scheme.

:40:40.:40:42.

What do you think about Mr Parish saying you shouldn't

:40:43.:40:45.

Well, we have this discussion regularly.

:40:46.:40:48.

The fact is that my constituents have to go on the A30 to get

:40:49.:40:51.

But Neil has the constraint of having to deal with

:40:52.:40:58.

the Blackdown Hills, the lobby group and so forth.

:40:59.:41:01.

But he is right, there has to be a balance between the environment

:41:02.:41:04.

But I think with modern technology and landscaping, we can do that.

:41:05.:41:09.

And I'm fed up with this discussion going round and round in

:41:10.:41:12.

Ever since I have been an MP, over 16 years now, we have had

:41:13.:41:17.

I think the time has come to get on and do it.

:41:18.:41:22.

Ben, it is notoriously difficult to get funding for infrastructure,

:41:23.:41:25.

should Neil Parish be opposed to it at all?

:41:26.:41:27.

Shouldn't we make sure this road is coming

:41:28.:41:30.

Well, if he thinks there is a less environmentally damaging route,

:41:31.:41:35.

then he should speak up for his constituents.

:41:36.:41:37.

We are not talking about a dualling, after all.

:41:38.:41:39.

Passages of three lanes. Yes, I think necessarily dangerous.

:41:40.:41:49.

There is a question as to whether this will ever happen

:41:50.:41:54.

because once once you dual the A358, from Ilminster to Taunton,

:41:55.:41:57.

you will take away a lot of the pressure

:41:58.:41:59.

for that Blackdown Hills route which is very

:42:00.:42:01.

So you would agree with Neil Parish not to do this?

:42:02.:42:05.

I'm not an expert on one route against another,

:42:06.:42:07.

I have always been a sceptic as to whether driving a new road

:42:08.:42:10.

through the Blackdown Hills would ever happen because of

:42:11.:42:12.

the environmental challenges and because of the fact

:42:13.:42:14.

that the A358 is going to be dualled.

:42:15.:42:16.

So disagreement already. We must move on.

:42:17.:42:19.

Wind farms were pioneered here in the South West 25 years ago.

:42:20.:42:22.

Yet tighter planning regulations and cuts in subsidies have seen

:42:23.:42:24.

Now new research published this week suggests that wind could play a much

:42:25.:42:30.

bigger role in cutting greenhouse emissions than previously thought.

:42:31.:42:34.

Scott Bingham has been assessing whether it's time to stop

:42:35.:42:36.

blowing hot and cold on this natural resource.

:42:37.:42:43.

Love them or loathe them, they are part of the landscapes

:42:44.:42:47.

across much of the South West and especially so here in Cornwall.

:42:48.:42:53.

And it is celebrating its 25th anniversary this month.

:42:54.:43:03.

And these four large turbines generate twice the power

:43:04.:43:09.

of the ten original turbines they replaced in 2011.

:43:10.:43:14.

The wind industry has come a long way in those 25 years.

:43:15.:43:18.

We are in a situation now where last year wind alone generated about 12%

:43:19.:43:23.

Renewables as a whole, around one quarter of our electricity demand.

:43:24.:43:29.

Figures show large wind deployment in England reached a peak of 451

:43:30.:43:35.

But that fell to 183 megawatts last year with the dropping down

:43:36.:43:50.

to a worsening planning environment and falling subsidies.

:43:51.:43:55.

Onshore wind is the lowest cost form of new electricity

:43:56.:43:57.

It is low carbon, it generates jobs, it generates investment.

:43:58.:44:01.

So it really is a win for the environment,

:44:02.:44:03.

And, it seems, wind could be even greener than first thought.

:44:04.:44:09.

Researchers at Edinburgh University have published a study

:44:10.:44:12.

which they say shows carbon savings from wind turbines were vastly

:44:13.:44:16.

underestimated, by more than three million tonnes

:44:17.:44:20.

In real terms, it's the equivalent of taking 220,000 cars off

:44:21.:44:26.

It is really significant in that it shows that wind power has been

:44:27.:44:33.

It therefore means that when farms are viable,

:44:34.:44:42.

an even more viable option and was grievously accepted.

:44:43.:44:51.

On top of that, renewables bring jobs.

:44:52.:44:59.

At a recent meeting in Plymouth, the Greens say the sector

:45:00.:45:02.

could support much more than the 13,000 already

:45:03.:45:04.

This Conservative government has decided to undermine the renewables

:45:05.:45:07.

industry by removing subsidies, particularly the feed in tariff.

:45:08.:45:10.

And we are arguing very strongly that that should be

:45:11.:45:12.

replaced and we should be supporting our renewables

:45:13.:45:14.

infrastructure and our renewable industry because we have got

:45:15.:45:16.

fantastic opportunities for that here in the South.

:45:17.:45:18.

But the government maintains it has increased certainty for businesses

:45:19.:45:20.

That's why we have got actually such a big deployment already

:45:21.:45:25.

of renewable energy technology and we want to see that continue.

:45:26.:45:27.

In fact it's because the deployment has been so extensive and so rapid

:45:28.:45:32.

that it has been possible to bring the subsidies down over time.

:45:33.:45:37.

Now, Good Energy is looking to go one step further.

:45:38.:45:40.

It wants to build the first community owned wind farm to operate

:45:41.:45:43.

without government subsidy on this site near Bude.

:45:44.:45:51.

Could that turn the wind in a favourable direction once more?

:45:52.:45:54.

Ben, many of the target set for the UK for renewable

:45:55.:46:00.

Post Brexit, it's not clear what will happen to these targets.

:46:01.:46:04.

Well, they didn't come from Europe, we negotiated...

:46:05.:46:08.

A lot of them have been negotiated negotiated with Europe.

:46:09.:46:10.

Well, Europe has a position, but there are international positions.

:46:11.:46:17.

Paris, recently is an international agreement and it takes in America,

:46:18.:46:22.

China, the whole world. So it's nothing to do with Europe.

:46:23.:46:25.

Europe has been at the forefront arguing for stronger

:46:26.:46:27.

renewable energy, and I think that is a good thing.

:46:28.:46:29.

It's nice to see a positive report about wind power,

:46:30.:46:32.

So you don't think that anything post Brexit

:46:33.:46:35.

Unlike Molly Scott Cato, who seems to be thinking

:46:36.:46:38.

I think this government is going in the wrong direction,

:46:39.:46:44.

but is nothing to do with the fact that we might be

:46:45.:46:48.

I think the withdrawal of support for not just wind,

:46:49.:46:51.

This stop-go approach towards renewables.

:46:52.:46:54.

But the good news is that renewables, as your report said,

:46:55.:46:57.

They are a fantastic resource and they soon won't need

:46:58.:47:00.

And that's why, in my view, whatever happened in the United States

:47:01.:47:04.

I was going to say, you talk about internationally,

:47:05.:47:07.

Trump coming in makes a difference as well.

:47:08.:47:09.

Well, we'll see. Let's see.

:47:10.:47:11.

He has appointed a lot of climate change deniers, which is a worry.

:47:12.:47:14.

But America has ratified the Paris Agreement.

:47:15.:47:15.

And any sensible person looking at the evidence,

:47:16.:47:18.

looking in the future, is going to realise

:47:19.:47:19.

If you don't get on the bus to that new technology,

:47:20.:47:24.

you will lose out in terms of jobs and investment in the future.

:47:25.:47:27.

Hugo, are we getting on the bus enough?

:47:28.:47:29.

Because the Green MEP Molly Scott Cato said

:47:30.:47:30.

That the Tory government has cut subsidies and is taking us

:47:31.:47:34.

She is behind the curve on this. She's talking about subsidies.

:47:35.:47:38.

Ben has set himself, we are at the point now that a loss

:47:39.:47:47.

subsidy at all because the take-up has been so good and the price

:47:48.:47:55.

of a lot of solar has dropped. They can stand alone.

:47:56.:47:58.

Hence you are talking about having a community initiative near Bude.

:47:59.:48:01.

That couldn't have happened ten or 15 years ago.

:48:02.:48:03.

What about Theresa May having change the name for the Department

:48:04.:48:05.

of Energy and Climate Change to a new Department of Business,

:48:06.:48:08.

Energy and Industrial Strategy? Is that the Tories going backwards?

:48:09.:48:11.

No, I don't think so. Ben is absolutely right.

:48:12.:48:13.

I would make a distinction between Trump on Twitter

:48:14.:48:15.

and Trump as a president with an administration.

:48:16.:48:17.

He wants to create jobs in the United States and he would be

:48:18.:48:20.

completely crazy to ignore the renewable energy sector market.

:48:21.:48:22.

Battery research, you have seen what is happening with Telstra

:48:23.:48:26.

As far as the impact on the South West of all of that,

:48:27.:48:34.

would you like to see more wind farms?

:48:35.:48:36.

No, I wouldn't like to see any more onshore wind farms...

:48:37.:48:39.

Because there have been a lot of Tory MPs down here who been very

:48:40.:48:42.

outspoken about not wanting to see any more wind farms

:48:43.:48:45.

Well, I like offshore wind farms and I like how energy,

:48:46.:48:53.

wave energy and other forms of renewable.

:48:54.:49:07.

There is a balance between trying to create something great

:49:08.:49:09.

for the environment, which is reducing carbon,

:49:10.:49:11.

but destroying the landscape by putting wind farms

:49:12.:49:13.

I don't think they destroy the landscape.

:49:14.:49:17.

And when I realise that they are delivering carbon-free energy,

:49:18.:49:21.

So I wish the Tories would stop this opposition to wind farms

:49:22.:49:25.

because they are the future and it is where we are going to get

:49:26.:49:29.

But they don't have to be onshore. They don't have to be onshore?

:49:30.:49:33.

No, but they are much cheaper onshore so they are much better

:49:34.:49:36.

value for the taxpayer and better returns for these communities.

:49:37.:49:39.

Carols, candlelight, Christingles and Christmas trees -

:49:40.:49:40.

for many people the season wouldn't be complete without a trip

:49:41.:49:43.

Some parishes have thriving congregations, while others

:49:44.:49:48.

are dwindling, with a number of church buildings in the South

:49:49.:49:50.

Janine Jansen has been looking at what the future holds for some

:49:51.:49:55.

# Rocking around the Christmas tree...#

:49:56.:50:03.

in South Molton looks sparkling at this time of year.

:50:04.:50:07.

It's popular Christmas Tree Festival attracts people like a magnet.

:50:08.:50:09.

Many people used to go to church every Sunday.

:50:10.:50:13.

The Methodist Church here in Ashburton closed last year.

:50:14.:50:16.

A dwindling congregation and ongoing repair costs didn't help.

:50:17.:50:18.

But it has just been designated a community asset and this man

:50:19.:50:25.

wants it to be an art centre for the town.

:50:26.:50:28.

It's a lovely space, it's really fabulous

:50:29.:50:30.

People come into buildings and you get an instant feel

:50:31.:50:36.

for whether it's a friendly and pleasant place to be.

:50:37.:50:38.

It has obviously been loved for many, many decades and it

:50:39.:50:44.

would be a tragedy if it were lost to the community.

:50:45.:50:49.

There is a sadness. We are working through that.

:50:50.:50:51.

It is a bereavement process that you work through.

:50:52.:50:54.

But people are also very positive about worshipping where we do now,

:50:55.:50:57.

Clearly, there is a sadness about leaving a part of your history.

:50:58.:51:02.

The building will be sold to the highest bidder next year.

:51:03.:51:05.

Fundraising is already underway to try to keep the grade two listed

:51:06.:51:08.

Across the border into Cornwall, and St Pinnock's church

:51:09.:51:18.

is another house of God with an uncertain future.

:51:19.:51:21.

Discussions about closing it started around 25 years ago

:51:22.:51:24.

but the congregation fought to keep the Church alive.

:51:25.:51:31.

The parishioners can now worship in nearby Liskeard and a decision

:51:32.:51:36.

about the future of the building has yet to be made.

:51:37.:51:41.

One thing is clear, its grade one listed which means

:51:42.:51:44.

it can't be demolished or converted into housing.

:51:45.:51:49.

Well, St Paul's church here in Truro has been closed

:51:50.:51:53.

Not due to a dwindling congregation, but due to health and safety

:51:54.:52:01.

A report says it will cost ?3.7 million to restore it.

:52:02.:52:10.

It's sad for historical and conservation reasons

:52:11.:52:14.

but it is even sadder is an image of the church.

:52:15.:52:34.

The Church of England in Cornwallis vibrant and lively,

:52:35.:52:37.

we want to be preoccupied with sharing the love of God,

:52:38.:52:39.

especially at Christmas time and this is the picture

:52:40.:52:41.

And that is why we are working as hard as we can with as many

:52:42.:52:47.

partners as we can to find the right long-term solution to how this

:52:48.:52:50.

The Cornish buildings group has launched a petition to save St Paul.

:52:51.:52:55.

They say the tower doesn't need demolishing.

:52:56.:52:56.

But in eight years, no one has come forward yet

:52:57.:52:59.

One thing is for sure, it won't be enjoying much

:53:00.:53:06.

Joining us now from Exeter Cathedral we have the right

:53:07.:53:11.

Reverend Robert Atwell. Welcome to the programme.

:53:12.:53:12.

Churches, many of them empty at the moment,

:53:13.:53:17.

should there be government funding that props these churches up?

:53:18.:53:23.

Well, here in Devon, we have got 609 churches scattered

:53:24.:53:28.

across the county and occasionally we have to close one of two

:53:29.:53:32.

but that is because populations change and shift around and that has

:53:33.:53:37.

The thing is to adapt to a changing situation

:53:38.:53:43.

But also, we find ourselves opening new churches.

:53:44.:53:47.

Here in Exeter, as Ben Bradshaw knows well, we have opened

:53:48.:53:50.

a new church in Cranbrook and another one in Newport and down

:53:51.:53:55.

of Plymouth where that whole new village complex is going up,

:53:56.:53:58.

we are planting a new church in the next couple of years.

:53:59.:54:01.

For us, one of the biggest challenges is the rural church

:54:02.:54:07.

because we've got lots of them, some wonderful medieval churches

:54:08.:54:10.

But the situation for us in Devon is that the rural population

:54:11.:54:17.

has shrunk considerably from what it was 150 years ago

:54:18.:54:21.

and that has really threatened the whole infrastructure

:54:22.:54:24.

So in the last ten to 20 years, it has seen the village school has

:54:25.:54:40.

gone, pubs have gone I mean, four pubs are closing

:54:41.:54:43.

Is that a reason to try and save these church buildings?

:54:44.:54:47.

Always what you are saying that the new ones opening elsewhere,

:54:48.:54:50.

Well, what I would say is that often many parts of the county and I'm

:54:51.:54:55.

sure our situation in Devon is replicated elsewhere

:54:56.:54:57.

in the country, the Parish Church is the only community building

:54:58.:55:01.

we have got there in the village and we need to invest in that.

:55:02.:55:04.

Because it is about the health of our communities.

:55:05.:55:07.

A lot of our medieval churches, the nave was for the people.

:55:08.:55:11.

And I just want people to reclaim their naves and do

:55:12.:55:14.

Some of the things we are doing in Devon like St Peter's Ugborough,

:55:15.:55:21.

where the local post office closed some time ago and that has come

:55:22.:55:25.

into the church so it is being used for worship on Sundays but also

:55:26.:55:29.

on Tuesday, when the post office is open, the local church is running

:55:30.:55:33.

a coffee place there for lonely and isolated people to come to.

:55:34.:55:38.

And innovative ideas like that are going across Devon.

:55:39.:55:42.

With ideas like that coming in, you use the church was something

:55:43.:55:49.

else, for a community purpose, does that mean that more government

:55:50.:55:52.

funding, because there is already some available to churches,

:55:53.:55:54.

Are these important enough to prop them up?

:55:55.:56:00.

It depends on the church and the location and

:56:01.:56:02.

But I would say the government does need to intervene.

:56:03.:56:06.

This is part of our heritage, our built heritage and

:56:07.:56:08.

I am all for using, if there is no alternative,

:56:09.:56:13.

and adapting the usage of a church if there is not a big enough

:56:14.:56:16.

congregation to worship there, I would rather it was used

:56:17.:56:18.

as a place of worship, but then I would rather it

:56:19.:56:21.

still existed and was supported by the community.

:56:22.:56:24.

I do regret sometimes when the pews are stripped out,

:56:25.:56:27.

never to be used as a church again, but we have to live in modern

:56:28.:56:30.

times when congregations are smaller as the bishop said,

:56:31.:56:34.

a lot of rural communities are a lot smaller as well and they have used

:56:35.:56:43.

But at the end of the day, I fundamentally believe that we owe

:56:44.:56:53.

it to future generations to preserve these magnificent buildings.

:56:54.:56:55.

Also public funding be more for things like the NHS,

:56:56.:57:00.

the growing problems with social care?

:57:01.:57:02.

These buildings, and people are not using them as churches,

:57:03.:57:04.

I'm the son of the rural vicar and I love our historical churches,

:57:05.:57:14.

and I'm also a practising Christian so there is a real dilemma

:57:15.:57:17.

for us in the church as to whether we spend our money

:57:18.:57:20.

and resources and time and energy on preserving old buildings

:57:21.:57:25.

or preaching the Christian gospel and because the message

:57:26.:57:30.

And I think the Bishop got it right, where you have got a church

:57:31.:57:38.

that you can integrate into a community hub or something

:57:39.:57:41.

like that and that does attract more support,

:57:42.:57:43.

is not government money, it's Lottery money for the main,

:57:44.:57:45.

so it's not taxpayers money that would otherwise go into the health

:57:46.:57:48.

service, that is absolutely the right thing to do.

:57:49.:57:51.

But in some cases, we are going to have to just

:57:52.:57:54.

abandon the very isolated, very rural churches for which no

:57:55.:57:56.

If we come back to you, Right Reverend Robert Atwell,

:57:57.:58:01.

on that point, is it better sometimes to leave these churches?

:58:02.:58:04.

The Victorians had an idea that you could have a beautiful

:58:05.:58:06.

Could we not see sometimes these old churches in villages

:58:07.:58:15.

or on the edge of villages, become a beautiful rolling?

:58:16.:58:22.

Well, occasionally that has happened.

:58:23.:58:26.

It is always sad when it does happen.

:58:27.:58:28.

But these things are not incompatible.

:58:29.:58:29.

There are also the ways that we can do things

:58:30.:58:32.

which are imaginative and innovative which secure their use

:58:33.:58:34.

I think that is one of the thing that is really important.

:58:35.:58:38.

For example, here in the diocese of Exeter, starting next year,

:58:39.:58:42.

we are launching a whole project called growing the rural church

:58:43.:58:44.

and we are putting money and people to actually help some of our belief

:58:45.:58:48.

that rural communities to think in imaginative ways how these

:58:49.:58:50.

ancient landmarks can be preserved for future generations...

:58:51.:58:52.

I'm going to have to stop you there, but thank you very

:58:53.:58:55.

Now our regular round-up of the political week

:58:56.:59:00.

Now council tax could go up by 6% to pay for care.

:59:01.:59:05.

I really don't feel that we are going far enough in this

:59:06.:59:10.

House to address the scale of the increase in demand

:59:11.:59:13.

if we are going to allow people to be careful with dignity

:59:14.:59:16.

What will Brexit mean for Brixham's fishermen?

:59:17.:59:25.

We still want to fish sustainably, some things will change and it

:59:26.:59:29.

The funding formula for schools is changing.

:59:30.:59:32.

Some here are winners, others worse off.

:59:33.:59:34.

Campaigning side-by-side, the Health Secretary and the Cornish

:59:35.:59:36.

She reaches people that politicians can never reach.

:59:37.:59:39.

And Ben Bradshaw hence Russia could be behind

:59:40.:59:46.

I don't think we have even begun to wake up to what Russia is doing

:59:47.:00:02.

You have caused a bit of a storm on social media this week by saying

:00:03.:00:11.

that Russia may have had some kind of influence in the

:00:12.:00:13.

I was talking about propaganda and this sort of Twitter

:00:14.:00:18.

storms and fake news sites that the Kremlin funds.

:00:19.:00:20.

But if you look at what is happening now in America when there is clear

:00:21.:00:26.

evidence of actual attacks in America and our own header

:00:27.:00:28.

cyber security at GCHQ since my comments in the Commons,

:00:29.:00:31.

also warning about the possibility here and what's happening

:00:32.:00:33.

in Germany, evidence already, we need to wake up to

:00:34.:00:35.

It's not just cyber, it's also the propaganda war

:00:36.:00:38.

And I'm afraid if we don't do something about it very soon,

:00:39.:00:42.

the indications for democracy could be quite serious.

:00:43.:00:44.

In terms of the referendum, what kind of influence

:00:45.:00:46.

If you look at what they have been doing, and this has been well

:00:47.:00:53.

documented in the states about having these twitter storms

:00:54.:00:55.

and very close tie up they have a far right parties

:00:56.:00:58.

across the world, not just with America and France,

:00:59.:01:00.

but also here as well, the fake news sites...

:01:01.:01:02.

And the e-mail hacking. Yes, well...

:01:03.:01:03.

Not sure that's... The CIA is talking about that.

:01:04.:01:06.

The CIA is not only talking about it, they are investigating it

:01:07.:01:08.

and Barack Obama has said there is clear evidence that Putin

:01:09.:01:11.

I think cyber warfare is an increasing threat from not

:01:12.:01:17.

It's the first time I have heard any suggestion that the Russians may

:01:18.:01:23.

have been involved in the E referendum in the UK.

:01:24.:01:26.

But I think what the head of GCHQ was warning about was that we should

:01:27.:01:30.

be alert to the possibilities of being interfered

:01:31.:01:32.

I don't think he was saying we have been.

:01:33.:01:40.

And I think there is no distinction there.

:01:41.:01:42.

But clearly, in the United States, something serious has happened.

:01:43.:01:44.

So you don't think Ben Pozner comments have been out there?

:01:45.:01:47.

Ben can speak for himself. He speaks up very...

:01:48.:01:49.

I don't think anybody should be surprised that

:01:50.:01:51.

That's the Sunday Politics in the South West.

:01:52.:01:56.

Now back to Andrew with the Week Ahead.

:01:57.:02:00.

Have a happy Christmas and we'll see you in the new year.

:02:01.:02:06.

Will Article 50 be triggered by the end of March,

:02:07.:02:20.

will President Trump start work on his wall and will

:02:21.:02:23.

Front National's Marine Le Pen provide the next electoral shock?

:02:24.:02:28.

2016, the Brexit for Britain and Trump for the rest of the world.

:02:29.:02:50.

Let's look back and see what one of you said about Brexit.

:02:51.:02:55.

If Mr Cameron loses the referendum and it is this year,

:02:56.:02:57.

will he be Prime Minister at the end of the year?

:02:58.:03:00.

I don't think he will lose the referendum, so I'm feeling

:03:01.:03:06.

It was clear if he did lose the referendum he would be out. I would

:03:07.:03:15.

like to say in retrospect I saw that coming on a long and I was just

:03:16.:03:20.

saying it to make good television! It is Christmas so I will be benign

:03:21.:03:26.

towards my panel! It is possible, Iain, that not much happens to

:03:27.:03:32.

Brexit in 2017, because we have a host of elections coming up in

:03:33.:03:35.

Europe, the French won in the spring and the German one in the autumn

:03:36.:03:38.

will be the most important. And until we know who the next French

:03:39.:03:43.

president is and what condition Mrs Merkel will be in, not much will

:03:44.:03:49.

happen? I think that is the likeliest outcome. Short of some

:03:50.:03:54.

constitutional crisis involving the Lords relating to Brexit, it is

:03:55.:04:01.

pretty clear it is difficult to properly begin the negotiations

:04:02.:04:05.

until it becomes clear who Britain is negotiating with. It will come

:04:06.:04:09.

down to the result of the German election. Germany is the biggest

:04:10.:04:12.

contributor and if they keep power in what is left of the European

:04:13.:04:17.

Union, will drive the negotiation and we will have to see if it will

:04:18.:04:23.

be Merkel. So this vacuum that has been seen and has been filled by

:04:24.:04:28.

people less than friendly to the government, even when we know

:04:29.:04:31.

Article 50 has been triggered and even if there is some sort of white

:04:32.:04:36.

paper to give us a better idea of the broad strategic outlines of what

:04:37.:04:41.

they mean by Brexit, the phoney war could continue? Iain is right. 2017

:04:42.:04:48.

is going to be a remarkably dull year for Brexit as opposed to 2016.

:04:49.:04:55.

We will have the article and a plan. The plan will say I would like the

:04:56.:05:00.

moon on a stick please. The EU will say you can have a tiny bit of moon

:05:01.:05:04.

and a tiny bit of stick and there will be an impasse. That will go on

:05:05.:05:10.

until one minute to midnight 2018 which is when the EU will act. There

:05:11.:05:16.

is one thing in the Foreign Office which is more important, as David

:05:17.:05:21.

Davis Department told me, they know there is nothing they can do until

:05:22.:05:24.

the French and Germans have their elections and they know the lie of

:05:25.:05:29.

the land, but the people who will be more helpful to us are in Eastern

:05:30.:05:33.

Europe and in Scandinavia, the Nordic countries. We can do quite a

:05:34.:05:37.

lot of schmoozing to try and get them broadly on side this year? It

:05:38.:05:42.

is very difficult because one of the things they care most about in

:05:43.:05:46.

Eastern Europe is the ability for Eastern European stew come and work

:05:47.:05:51.

in the UK. That is key to the economic prospects. But what they

:05:52.:05:55.

care most about is that those already here should not be under any

:05:56.:06:00.

pressure to leave. There is no guarantee of that. That is what Mrs

:06:01.:06:06.

May wants. There are a lot of things Mrs May wants and the story of 2017

:06:07.:06:10.

will be about what she gets. How much have we got to give people? It

:06:11.:06:15.

is not what we want, but what we are willing to give. The interesting

:06:16.:06:21.

thing is you can divide this out into two. There is a question of the

:06:22.:06:25.

European Union and our relationship with it but there is also the trick

:06:26.:06:32.

the polls did to London -- there is also the polls. There is question

:06:33.:06:37.

beyond the Western European security, that is about Nato and

:06:38.:06:41.

intelligence and security, and the rising Russian threat. That does not

:06:42.:06:48.

mean the Polish people will persuade everyone else to give us a lovely

:06:49.:06:52.

deal on the EU, but the dynamic is bigger than just a chat about

:06:53.:06:57.

Brexit. You cannot threaten a punishment beating for us if we are

:06:58.:07:00.

putting our soldiers on the line on the eastern borders of Europe. I

:07:01.:07:05.

think that's where Donald Trump changes the calculation because his

:07:06.:07:10.

attitude towards Russia is very different to Barack Obama's. It is

:07:11.:07:18.

indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit was a global story but nothing can

:07:19.:07:22.

match and American election and even one which gives Donald Trump as

:07:23.:07:27.

well. Let's have a look at what this panel was saying about Donald Trump.

:07:28.:07:30.

Will Donald Trump win the Republican nomination next year.

:07:31.:07:32.

So, not only did you think he would not be president, you did not think

:07:33.:07:45.

he would win the Republican nomination. We were not alone in

:07:46.:07:50.

that. And they're right put forward a motion to abolish punditry here

:07:51.:07:55.

now because clearly we are pointless! There is enough

:07:56.:08:00.

unemployment in the world already! We are moving into huge and charted

:08:01.:08:05.

territory with Donald Trump as president. It is incredibly

:08:06.:08:09.

unpredictable. But what has not been noticed enough is the Keynesian won.

:08:10.:08:16.

Trump is a Keynesian. He wants massive infrastructure spending and

:08:17.:08:23.

massive tax cuts. The big story next year will be the massive reflation

:08:24.:08:28.

of the American economy and indeed the US Federal reserve has already

:08:29.:08:34.

reacted to that by putting up interest rates. That is why he has a

:08:35.:08:40.

big fight with the rest of the Republican Party. He is nominally a

:08:41.:08:43.

Republican but they are not Keynesian. They are when it comes to

:08:44.:08:49.

tax cuts. They are when it hits the rich to benefit the poor. The big

:08:50.:08:53.

thing is whether the infrastructure projects land him in crony trouble.

:08:54.:08:57.

The transparency around who gets those will be extremely difficult.

:08:58.:09:02.

Most of the infrastructure spending he thinks can be done by the private

:09:03.:09:07.

sector and not the federal government. His tax cuts overlap the

:09:08.:09:14.

Republican house tax cuts speaker Ryan to give not all, but a fair

:09:15.:09:19.

chunk of what he wants. If the American economy is going to reflate

:09:20.:09:23.

next year, interest rates will rise in America, that will strengthen the

:09:24.:09:28.

dollar and it will mean that Europe will be, it will find it more

:09:29.:09:33.

difficult to finance its sovereign debt because you will get more money

:09:34.:09:37.

by investing in American sovereign debt. That is a good point because

:09:38.:09:43.

the dynamics will shift. If that happens, Trump will be pretty

:09:44.:09:48.

popular in the US. To begin with. To begin with. It is energy

:09:49.:09:54.

self-sufficient and if you can pull off the biggest trick in American

:09:55.:10:00.

politics which is somehow to via corporation tax cuts to allow the

:10:01.:10:05.

reassuring of wealth, because it is too expensive for American business

:10:06.:10:09.

to take back into the US and reinvest, if you combine all of

:10:10.:10:12.

those things together, you will end up with a boom on a scale you have

:10:13.:10:19.

not seen. It will be Reagan on steroids? What could possibly go

:10:20.:10:24.

wrong? In the short term for Britain, it is probably not bad

:10:25.:10:29.

news. Our biggest market for exports as a country is the United States.

:10:30.:10:33.

Our biggest market for foreign direct investment is the United

:10:34.:10:38.

States and the same is true vice versa for America in Britain. Given

:10:39.:10:41.

the pound is now competitive and likely the dollar will get stronger,

:10:42.:10:45.

it could well give a boost to the British economy? Could do bit you

:10:46.:10:51.

have to be slightly cautious about the warm language we are getting

:10:52.:10:56.

which is great news out of President Trump's future cabinet on doing a

:10:57.:11:01.

trade deal early, we are net exporters to the US. We benefit far

:11:02.:11:04.

more from trading with US than they do with us. I think we have to come

:11:05.:11:09.

up with something to offer the US for them to jump into bed with us. I

:11:10.:11:15.

think it is called two new aircraft carriers and modernising the fleet.

:11:16.:11:25.

Bring it on. I will raise caution, people in declining industries in

:11:26.:11:29.

some places in America, the rust belt who have faced big profound

:11:30.:11:33.

structural challenges and those are much harder to reverse. They face

:11:34.:11:38.

real problems now because the dollar is so strong. Their ability to

:11:39.:11:44.

export has taken a huge hit out of Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the

:11:45.:11:48.

Mexican imports into America is now dirt cheap so that is a major

:11:49.:11:54.

problem. Next year we have elections in Austria, France, the Netherlands,

:11:55.:12:02.

Germany, probably Italy. Which outcome will be the most dramatic

:12:03.:12:07.

for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would be a huge surprise. That is

:12:08.:12:15.

unlikely. And if it was not Filon in France that would be unlikely. The

:12:16.:12:23.

consensus it it will be Francois Filon against Marine Le Pen and it

:12:24.:12:26.

will be uniting around the far right candidate. In 2002, that is what

:12:27.:12:37.

happened. Filon is a Thatcherite. Marine Le Pen's politics --

:12:38.:12:47.

economics are hard left. Francois Filon is as much a cert to win as

:12:48.:12:51.

Hillary Clinton was this time last year. If he is competing against

:12:52.:12:57.

concerns about rising globalisation and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is

:12:58.:13:05.

a bold, brave strategy in the context so we will see. It will keep

:13:06.:13:12.

us busy next year, Tom? Almost as busy as this year but not quite.

:13:13.:13:19.

This year was a record year. I am up in my hours!

:13:20.:13:22.

That's all for today, thanks to all my guests.

:13:23.:13:24.

The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at noon tomorrow.

:13:25.:13:27.

I'll be back here on the 15th January.

:13:28.:13:29.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

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