12/02/2017 Sunday Politics South West


12/02/2017

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Commons Speaker John Bercow is accused of compromising his

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impartiality by revealing he voted Remain in last year's EU referendum.

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The EU Withdrawal Bill clears its first Parliamentary hurdle.

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But will the House of Lords be quite so accommodating?

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Labour's Leader in the Lords joins us live.

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And we report from Stoke-on-Trent ahead of a crucial by-election

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In the south-west, headteachers warn Ukip is looking to give

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In the south-west, headteachers warn of cuts under the new education

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funding formula. And with me a political panel

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who frequently like to compromise Steve Richards, Julia

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Hartley-Brewer and Janan Ganesh. I'll be trying to keep them in order

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during the course of the programme. So, Commons Speaker John Bercow has

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insisted his ability to act impartially is not damaged

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by reports that he voted to Remain The Sunday Telegraph reveals that

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Speaker Bercow revealed his views in front of an audience of students

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at Reading University This may not be popular with some

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people in this audience - I thought it was better to stay

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in the European Union than not, partly for economic reason,

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being part of a big trade bloc, and partly because I think we're

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in a world of power blocs, and I think for all

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the weaknesses and deficiencies of the European Union,

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it is better to be part of that big Speaker Bercow speaking at Reading

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University earlier this month. Does he not care is this I get that

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impression, he knows perfectly well, it states he has to be particularly

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-- Parliamentary neural. Whether there are going to be enough votes

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to force him out, the question, the last speaker wept out with the 20

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vote against him. You yes to have the command of the support across

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the House. There is a Deputy Speaker, waiting, who would be

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superb. I think even the people who pretend to support Macis have had

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enough -- Speaker Bercow have had enough of his ways. The reason I ask

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whether he care, he didn't just tell the students that he voted to

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Remain, he then gave them a running commentary on all the issues that

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will be part of the Brexit negotiations, workers' rights,

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immigration, trade policy, everyone maternity leave got a hat tip from

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him. He would be a very well prepared Brexit minister if

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attendance needs a colleague -- David Davis needs a colleague. I

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don't think this story makes his position untenable, what does is the

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wired pattern of behaviour of excessive candour on his political

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views, going back years, this is a guy who when the Queen visited

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Parliament described her as theical lied scope Queen. He had a running

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argument with David Cameron. We know his views on Brexit, we know his

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views on Donald Trump. . He has given interviews, none of the views

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are illegitimate but the candour which they are expressed with is

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scrupulous. Given Lyndsay Hoyle is a class accuse. He is the Deputy

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Speaker. And a fairly ready replacement, whether there is more

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of a movement to say, maybe not force Bercow out but acknowledge he

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has had a few years in the job and the question of successor ship comes

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into play. Has he concluded he is untouchable? What I can definitely

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say, is that he is determined to fight this one out, and not go of

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his own volition, so if he goes he will have to be forced out. He wants

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to stay. Which will be tough. It will be tough. Likely as things

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stand. I would say this, I speak to someone who likes the way he has

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brought the House of Commons to life, held ministers to account,

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forced them into explain thing, whenever there is a topical issue

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you know it will be in the House of Commons. He has changed that. He

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has. Time has been courageous, Ied a mire the way he has been a speaker.

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I would say this, during the referendum campaign, he asked me

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Nick Clegg, and Peter Hitchens to debate Brexit if his constituency.

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It was a packed out meeting. He chaired it. I said don't you want to

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join in? He didn't. He showed no desire to join in, he was impartial.

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He goes out to universities and kind of demyth GCSEs Parliament by

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speaking to them in a way, he doesn't gets credit for it and stays

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on after and drinks with them. Sometimes he, you know, it is

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clearly a mistake to have gone into his views retrospectively on that

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referendum campaign, I don't think that, did he try and stop Article 50

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from being triggered in the House of Commons? That would be a scandal.

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Even that would be beyond him. Briefly, yes or no, could you

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imagine Betty Boothroyd behaving like that? Not at all. None of the

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recent speakers I could imagine doing that. It is good he is

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The bill that will allow the government to trigger Article 50

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and begin Brexit negotiations was voted through

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Many MPs were in a difficult position - unsure whether to vote

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with their conscience, their constituency,

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Europe, once such a divisive issue for the Conservatives,

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is now causing major divisions inside the Labour Party.

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So, let's have a look what happened in a bit more detail:

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Thanks to academic research carried out since the referendum,

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we now have estimates of how each individual constituency voted.

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It's thought that 410 constituencies voted Leave.

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On Wednesday night, the EU Notification of Withdrawal Bill

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was voted through by the House of Commons.

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The bill left the Labour Party divided.

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Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs to respect the result

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of the referendum and vote for the government's bill -

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But 52 Labour MPs defied Mr Corbyn's thee-line whip

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That's about a fifth of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

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Of those 52 Labour MPs who voted against the bill,

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the majority, 45 of them, represent seats that voted Remain.

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However, seven Labour MPs voted against the Article 50 Bill,

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even though their constituents voted Leave in the referendum.

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The Conservative Party were much more united.

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The vast majority of Tory MPs, 320 of them, voted for the bill.

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Just one Conservative MP, Ken Clarke, voted against it.

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His constituency, Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire, voted Remain.

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The bill will now go to the House of Lords -

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peers will start debating it on Monday the 20th of February.

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Joining me now is Matthew Goodwin, politics professor at

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He's got a book out next month called

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Brexit: Why Britain Voted To Leave The European Union.

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Welcome to the programme. Has Brexit, how you voted in the

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referendum and your continuing attitudes toward it, is that now

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becoming the new dividing line in British politics? I think it

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certainly is contributing to a new dividing line, in western politics

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more generally, we know over the last ten years, that the old left

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and right division has been making way for a new division, between

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essentially social liberals and Conservative, and Brexit was a, an

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incident a moment that really reflected that new dividing line, so

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it wasn't just the case that Brexit has cut across Labour's base, it is

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that dividing line, that deeper division is cutting across social

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democracies more generally. Is there a possibility, no higher than that,

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that it will reShane our party politics? I think it is too early to

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know whether this is a fundamental long-term realignment. If we look at

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what is happening in local by-election, what is happening at

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by-elections, pictures a bit mixed but if you look at how some of the

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Labour vote is responding, I think that potentially reflects the

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possibility of a terminal decline for the Labour Party, it is going to

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be incredibly difficult for Labour to win these voters back, these are

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traditional working class, socially Conservative voters who are leaving

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the party, don't forget, since the 1997 general election. It is not

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just because of the referendum. If that was the case, Labour would

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become more a party of the Metropolitan areas, and less of a

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party outside of these area, is that what you are saying? What we are S

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seeing across the west can social democracy that retrenchment into the

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cosmopolitan, Metropolitan city area, university towns, you can

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seeing in many European states populist right parties filling the

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traditional socialist area, why are they doing that? Because they are

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offering two message, economic and cultural protectionism. Social

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Democrats are clinging to that economic protectionism but not

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saying much about migration and multiculturalism and that sort of

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stuff. Are there deeper forces at work than Jeremy Corbyn? He often

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gets the blame for what is happening to the Labour Party now, but if you

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look the way the Greek socialist party has been wiped out. The German

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Social Democrats are in trouble. The Italian socialist party has lost a

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referendum. The French socialist are coming close to being wiped out on

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April 23rd, Labour's problems, are part of a much wider problem of

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social democracy S Jeremy Corbyn is a surface problem, what I mean by

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that is you could replace him tosh with another leader, they would

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still have this fundamental tension within the electorate. They are

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trying to appeal to two differenter reconcilable groups of voters who

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think differently about the key issues of the day. It is very

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difficult for any centre left party now to assemble the kinds of

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coalitionses we saw in the '90s with Clinton and Blair and Schroeder.

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Those days are gone. Does that explain why it is now Labour, rather

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than the Conservatives, historically the party divided over the European

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Union, does all of that help to explain why its Labour that now

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seems, disunited over the EU? I think so, I think also that the

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issue of Brexit, and the EU, is so immatly wrapped up with that issue

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of immigration, if you look at who has been abandoned Labour since 2015

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or the late 90s, the one thing those voters share is a rejection of the

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so-called liberal consensus on EU membership and mass immigration. It

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is difficult for any Labour lead eer co-bin or Clive Lewis on Dan Jarvis,

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to bring those voters back unless they are going to move on that

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cultural terrain. If they are not, they may not go to Ukip, they might

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go to somewhere more difficult for Labour which is political apathy.

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Thank you for that. Attention now shifts to the House

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of Lords where peers will begin scrutinising the EU Withdrawal Bill

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in just over a week. Brexit Secretary David Davis urged

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the Lords "to do its patriotic duty" and resist the urge to tinker

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with the legislation. Former minister Oliver Letwin

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went one further - mooting the possibility

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of the abolition of the Lords if it sought to frustrate

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the bill in any way. Here he is posing the question

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in the Commons on Thursday. Would he find time, in government

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time for a debate, should the other place seek to delay beyond the end

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of March the passage of our accession to Article 50, for this

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House to discuss the possibility of either the abolition or full-scale

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reform of the other place? And Oliver Letwin joins

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me now from Dorset. Welcome back to the programme Mr Let

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win. Before we come on to the Lord's, can I get your thoughts on a

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matter that has been making the news this morning and John Bercow's

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remarks about being a remain voter an giving something of a running

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commentary on various Brexit issues, has he sqloefr stepped the mark as

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speaker? -- overstepped the mark. I think this is slightly a fuss about

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nothing. Every person who thinks about politics will have had some

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opinion about great matters like Brexit, and I really don't see any

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particular reason why his opinion shouldn't be known after the fact.

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I, I was there throughout the five days of the Brexit debate, and I

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have to say, I thought he was pretty scrupulously fair in the way he

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handled the House, so, I, I don't really share the view that there is

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some terrible thing that has been revealed this weekend. Let me come

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on to what we are here to talk about, which is the Lords. Why have

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you raised the threat of the abolition of the Lord for doing its

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job of scrutinising what is coming out the Commons? Well, you know,

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Andrew, this question of the job of the House of Lords and scrutiny, has

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to be looked at carefully. There are all sorts of bills that come out the

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House of Commons which are detailed things that relate to, finance, and

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expenditure, and the criminal law, and all that sort of thing, and all

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of that, I admire the work that the House of Lords does, as you say

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scrutinising and we shouldn't use that word loosely, it means looking

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carefully at the detail, line by line of complicated legislation,

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hundreds of Paps in some cases, and spotting, using the considerable

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expertise many, not all be many of the peers have, in any given field,

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to identify things where the Commons has got it wrong in the sense that

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the legislation wouldn't achieve what the Government of the day is

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seeking to make it achieve. That is a serious proper role for an Upper

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House and the House of Lords performs it pretty

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Now this is a very different case. This is a two clause bill. The first

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clause which is the operative clause says the Prime Minister should go

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ahead and sign... I understand all that. We haven't got that much time,

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this is becoming a monologue. There is nothing to scrutinise, Andrew.

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There were plenty of amendments put before the Commons, none of them got

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through, it is true. There are eight Labour amendments in the Lords, are

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you resigned to this bill coming back to the Commons with amendments?

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No, it should not come back with amendments. There were hundreds of

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amendments literally put down in the House of Commons, they were all

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drunk. They were all trying one way or another to derail the process.

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This is a binary issue, should Theresa May sign the withdrawal or

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not? What should the Commons do? The Commons has now voted in favour of

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it. Node do should tolerate and unelected chamber forcing the

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British people... The people voted in a referendum and the Commons

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voted. The matter is now signed and sealed and should not be derailed by

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the House of Lords. On Labour amendment wants confirmation that

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when it is done, the potential Brexit agreement will be put before

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parliament before any vote in the European Parliament, that has been

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an agreed principle, what is wrong with that amendments? The government

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has already agreed there will be a vote, but actually, what the

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amendments were seeking was to give the Commons a further vote on

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whether we actually leave or not. That is already decided. Neither the

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House of Lords nor anybody else has a right in my view, despite the fact

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I was a remain, to what the will of the British people. Nobody should

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think an unelected chamber should now try to change the course of

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British history by asserting amendments in a very effective on

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clause bill which says go ahead and trigger Article 50. Are you

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concerned that amendments by the Lords which would then have to go

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back to the Commons for consideration, are you concerned

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that could derail or delay the Prime Minister's timetable for Article 50?

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Yes, exactly. That would be the result of a prolonged bout of

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ping-pong between the two houses, or much worse, if the House of Lords

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failed to give way and the Parliament act had to be used. It

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would really be intolerable. It is not good for our country. Those of

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us who voted remain would prefer for that not to happen. The whole

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country -- it is important for the whole country that this happens in a

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rapid way and allowing the government free rein to negotiate,

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that is surely in all our advantages? Deed think any efforts

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to abolish the House of Lords, an issue you have raised, does that

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make it easier because your friend David Cameron stuffed the upper

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chamber with donors, lapdogs and lingerie designers? I was among

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those who advocated for many years wholesale reform of the House of

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Lords, to turn it into a serious elected second chamber. I think we

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should have an upper house which commands legitimacy. This is a

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second issue. Here we have not got such a House and it seems to be very

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clear that it should not seek to derail on delay the action which has

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been mandated by the referendum, agreed by the House of Commons, and

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what we want to see now is a smooth orderly effect for this bill, so it

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becomes law and Theresa May can go ahead and negotiate on our behalf.

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One more question on the process, if the Lords to amend the bill and it

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goes back to the Commons and the Commons sends these amendments back

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again, take them out, how long could this ping-pong between the two

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chambers go on in your experience? It is a very, very interesting and

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complicated question with the clerks of the two ends of the Palace of

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Westminster not always agreeing about this. But through certain

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machinations of slightly changing amendments as they go, in my

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experience this could carry on for an awful long time if clever people,

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and there are plenty of clever people in the House of Lords, want

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to do that and that is precisely why I think we should not tolerate it.

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Oliver Letwin, thank you for joining us from Dorset.

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Joining me now is Labour's Leader in the House of Lords, Angela Smith.

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The Commons passed this bill without any amendments... There were

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changes, the government did concede a couple of points. But the

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amendments did not go through. Does that put pressure on the Lords to do

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the same? I think the Lords always feels under pressure to do the right

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thing. When I heard Oliver Letwin, I did not know whether to laugh or

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cry. We will not frustrate, we will not wreck, we will not sabotage. We

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will do what David Davis said was our patriotic duty. We will

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scrutinise the bill. We have at amendments from the Labour Party. We

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will look at those. It depends on the government response if we vote

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on those. There could be amendments asking the Commons to look again.

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That is normally what we do. It is not the wrong thing to do. But if

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you do this and make amendments, it then goes back to the Commons. If

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the Commons rejects the Lords' amendments, what do you think will

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happen? I do not see any extended ping-pong at all. It is perfectly

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legitimate. We are not talking about the outcome of negotiations, we are

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talking about the process. The process of engaging with Parliament

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and reporting to Parliament. It would be totally responsible for

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Parliament to say, off you go, Theresa May, have two years of

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negotiation and come back and talk to us at the end. The has to be a

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process where the government can use the expertise of parliament to get

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this right. But if you do put in some amendments, it has to go back

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to the Commons, they may well say they don't want those amendments and

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it may go back to the Lords, could that at the very least delay the

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Prime Minister's Brexit timetable? I don't think so. She said the end of

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March. Time has been built in for all the normal processes. I think

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Oliver Letwin and others are getting a bit overexcited. This is the

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normal process. Unless the government get things right the

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first time every time, the has to be this kind of process. These are

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reasonable amendments. This is a Labour amendment we are talking

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about here, you want a vote in the UK Parliament before any

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vote in the European Parliament if and when the Brexit deal is done,

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the Commons and the Lords get to vote on it first. But the government

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I think have already agreed to that so what is the point? It needs to be

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on the face of the bill. It is over well if the government have agreed

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it. Lord dubs had an agreement about child and look what happened to

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that. Does not sound as if you would go to the wire on that? It is

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important it is not just about the vote at the end, you have the

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ongoing engagement. If it is going to be a bad deal, we need to know

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long before we get to that stage? Is it something you would hold out for?

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I don't know yet. It is about how the House of Lords votes, Labour do

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not have a majority, we never had a majority in the House of Lords when

:24:16.:24:19.

we were in government. It is wrong to suggest that we cannot debate

:24:20.:24:24.

these issues... I don't think anyone is suggesting that. They are. It is

:24:25.:24:30.

not unfair to ask the government to ask the House of Commons to look

:24:31.:24:33.

again to look at those issues if that is what the House of Lords

:24:34.:24:37.

decides. Bit of the House of Commons says we looked, we are sticking with

:24:38.:24:42.

what we voted for, we rejected every amendment by at least 30 votes on

:24:43.:24:47.

all occasions, the Lords then have to buckle, is that what you are

:24:48.:24:51.

saying? Some point I think it is clear the House of Commons have to

:24:52.:24:55.

have its say. I think it is inconceivable that having had a

:24:56.:24:59.

referendum, which was not overwhelming, but it was a clear

:25:00.:25:04.

result, the House of Lords has no intention of sabotaging that but

:25:05.:25:07.

there are things which are not good about the process that we think

:25:08.:25:11.

could be improved. We have not just have the result of the referendum

:25:12.:25:16.

which voted to leave, but we have had the will of the Commons that

:25:17.:25:21.

passed this legislation by a majority of 372. And I am not

:25:22.:25:28.

contesting that for a second! Could you cite a precedent for the upper

:25:29.:25:32.

house amending a bill which passed by 372 votes in the Commons? Quite

:25:33.:25:37.

other things will come to the House of Lords with big majorities from

:25:38.:25:39.

the Commons and quite often the amendments we get, with that then

:25:40.:25:44.

forward and the government sees it could do better. Though not

:25:45.:25:50.

necessarily saying the government has got things wrong, but they could

:25:51.:25:52.

do things better. That happens time and time again and it is not

:25:53.:25:58.

unusual. If you were seen to thwart the referendum result and the vote

:25:59.:26:03.

in the Commons, the elected chamber of parliament, is the threat of

:26:04.:26:07.

abolition hanging over you? I think that is really ridiculous and

:26:08.:26:11.

absolute nonsense. We are not tying to what the decision of the House of

:26:12.:26:14.

Commons, we are trying to do better. It is a bit rich of the government

:26:15.:26:18.

and Oliver Letwin to complain about getting things through in time when

:26:19.:26:23.

the House of Commons spent -- the government spent three months trying

:26:24.:26:28.

to debate this issue. There have been some strong questions put to

:26:29.:26:31.

the government from the House of Lords on all sides. I don't know if

:26:32.:26:35.

the amendments have been passed or not. I think we have a good case for

:26:36.:26:43.

the government to get debate the point. If a traditional MP like

:26:44.:26:51.

Oliver Letwin is calling for the abolition of the hereditary and

:26:52.:26:54.

appointed chamber, and the Labour person like yourself was trying to

:26:55.:26:58.

defend that, that would not be a sustainable position, I would

:26:59.:27:04.

suggest! We saw this with the Strathclyde report as well, this is

:27:05.:27:06.

a government like no other. It is the first Conservative government in

:27:07.:27:09.

history not to have an automatic majority. They do not like challenge

:27:10.:27:15.

or scrutiny. But you get my point, Labour cannot go to the wire in

:27:16.:27:20.

defending and an elected second chamber, can it? Actually, Labour

:27:21.:27:23.

can go to the wire in saying the government does not get it right

:27:24.:27:26.

every time. House of Lords is going to normal processes and people like

:27:27.:27:33.

Oliver Letwin are really getting a little bit over excited, and people

:27:34.:27:37.

who have been anonymously briefing. Who has been anonymously briefing? I

:27:38.:27:44.

don't know, they are anonymous! I understand people want to make

:27:45.:27:47.

amendments, that is the role of the House of Lords, but can I just for

:27:48.:27:51.

the avoidance of doubt, is it still your case that whatever amendments

:27:52.:27:55.

to make, whatever may go back and forward, it is not your intention to

:27:56.:28:00.

stop Article 50 being triggered by the end of March? I have been saying

:28:01.:28:06.

that, exactly that for months and months and months. It is

:28:07.:28:09.

inconceivable that an unelected House will thwart the will of the

:28:10.:28:12.

House of Commons and a referendum on this issue. But that does not mean

:28:13.:28:16.

we will be bullied by Oliver Letwin and others. But the triggering will

:28:17.:28:21.

happen by the end of March? I very much suspect so unless Theresa May

:28:22.:28:27.

has second thoughts, I suspect that will happen. Thank you.

:28:28.:28:29.

Now, just because it's parliamentary recess next week

:28:30.:28:31.

There are two by-elections round the corner -

:28:32.:28:35.

one in Copeland, and another in Stoke-on-Trent Central

:28:36.:28:37.

where the former Shadow Education Secretary,

:28:38.:28:39.

Tristram Hunt, vacated his seat to take up a role

:28:40.:28:41.

as Director of the Victoria Albert Museum in London.

:28:42.:28:44.

But Labour are facing a fight to hold onto the constituency

:28:45.:28:47.

Seconds away, Ukip's new leader has stepped into the ring

:28:48.:28:53.

as their candidate in a by-election bout to see

:28:54.:28:55.

At the last election Ukip came second to Labour here

:28:56.:29:02.

But now they are confident they can land a knockout blow,

:29:03.:29:07.

because this place is packed with people that voted to leave the EU.

:29:08.:29:14.

70% of people voted to leave the European Union.

:29:15.:29:17.

I'm the only candidate standing in this election

:29:18.:29:25.

who is a true Brexiteer, who has always campaigned to leave

:29:26.:29:28.

the EU and therefore I believe I would be the best person

:29:29.:29:30.

But he has had to fight off allegations

:29:31.:29:33.

he wasn't living in the constituency when he entered the contest.

:29:34.:29:36.

Explain to me what is going on with this issue about your house?

:29:37.:29:39.

Well, we took up the lease the day before nominations.

:29:40.:29:41.

Everything we've done is perfectly legal and within the law.

:29:42.:29:44.

The Labour Party are trying to get off the real issues in this election

:29:45.:29:49.

and focus on something which is banal nonsense.

:29:50.:29:56.

And there's been trouble as well for the Labour contender.

:29:57.:30:02.

He's been labelled a Remoaner after he sent a series

:30:03.:30:04.

of anti-Brexit tweets, filled with words

:30:05.:30:07.

I can't believe I'm about to ask this question in a nursery

:30:08.:30:18.

on a Sunday morning TV programme, but did you really tweet that

:30:19.:30:20.

I tweeted many things about Brexit, that's tweet is out there.

:30:21.:30:25.

It was done quite after the referendum result and it

:30:26.:30:28.

was my way of showing my frustration at the fact that months

:30:29.:30:31.

after the result we hadn't had anything from the government.

:30:32.:30:36.

Theresa May had failed to produce any plan,

:30:37.:30:38.

she had failed to give any meaningful statement

:30:39.:30:40.

about what Brexit meant other than bland statements

:30:41.:30:42.

about Brexit is Brexit, and it's a hard Brexit, or a soft Brexit.

:30:43.:30:45.

The context of it was it was out of frustration.

:30:46.:30:49.

So you didn't mean to insult the 70% of the people who live here

:30:50.:30:52.

I never mean to insult anybody and you know,

:30:53.:30:55.

I've made it quite clear, if I'm elected as the member

:30:56.:30:58.

of Parliament for Stoke-on-Trent Central, I will absolutely respect

:30:59.:31:00.

the wishes of the people of Stoke Central.

:31:01.:31:02.

I will make sure my vote in parliament is to trigger Article 50.

:31:03.:31:06.

While the Tories' man has done little bit of rebranding too.

:31:07.:31:09.

I voted Remain and I've been open about that, but my top priority

:31:10.:31:12.

is about the economy and to ensure we still have an

:31:13.:31:15.

Theresa May has set out clear proposal to ensure we develop

:31:16.:31:18.

a trade relationship with Europe and make that a success.

:31:19.:31:28.

It means the Lib Dems and the Greens are the ones battling Brexit.

:31:29.:31:31.

Well, when the Lib Dem candidate is actually here.

:31:32.:31:34.

The candidate is a consultant cardiologist.

:31:35.:31:39.

He is actually at work today doing very important heart surgery.

:31:40.:31:42.

He will be back tomorrow, back on the campaign trail working hard.

:31:43.:31:45.

30% of people voted to Remain and nobody else

:31:46.:31:49.

is representing them, so, you know, it is still a live issue.

:31:50.:31:53.

It is still something people care about.

:31:54.:31:54.

We are only at the start of the Article 50 process

:31:55.:31:57.

We are very a clear that we are standing up for those

:31:58.:32:02.

who want to remain in the single market, who want to protect jobs

:32:03.:32:05.

Labour have taken people for granted in this area for a great many years.

:32:06.:32:10.

Ukip, I'm afraid, all Ukip can offer to politics is division.

:32:11.:32:13.

I've covered a lot of by-elections where Ukip have come second.

:32:14.:32:15.

We'll find out if they really got Labour on the ropes this

:32:16.:32:18.

And here is a full list of all the candidates standing

:32:19.:32:38.

in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.

:32:39.:32:49.

They do atract lots of candidates. You can get that on the BBC website

:32:50.:32:58.

as well. I was trying to think back, here we have the main opposition

:32:59.:33:06.

party defending two seats in by-elections in the midterm of a

:33:07.:33:07.

government. All the speculation is where the

:33:08.:33:15.

opposition party can hold on, that is unprecedented. I can't give of an

:33:16.:33:20.

equivalent. You wouldn't just expect them to win seats they have held

:33:21.:33:26.

traditionally, you would expect hem to make inroads into seats held by

:33:27.:33:31.

the other party, I wonder if they fail to hold on to just one of

:33:32.:33:35.

these, whether it accelerates the momentum and criticism of the

:33:36.:33:41.

leadership of the moment. I think they are interesting constituencies.

:33:42.:33:45.

Matthew good win was talking about the left win coalition over the

:33:46.:33:51.

years, almost being too broad for its own good, including places like

:33:52.:33:58.

Primrose Hill and Hackney. Big university towns in Manchester,

:33:59.:34:02.

Bristol. Diverse ethnically and included places like Stoke which are

:34:03.:34:12.

more Conservative. With a small c. Less economically well-off, more

:34:13.:34:17.

diverse, can the left hang on to both bits of country. Recent

:34:18.:34:20.

evidence suggests it cannot and the opportunity for Ukip is to pick up

:34:21.:34:24.

the second of those two types of community, the Stokes and the cope

:34:25.:34:28.

lands. That what makes the by-elections interest I would

:34:29.:34:32.

suggest. It is not just about Mr Corbyn's future about which we hear

:34:33.:34:37.

too much, it is about this traditional Labour coalition, can it

:34:38.:34:41.

still survive, particularly in places like Stoke? Europe clearly is

:34:42.:34:45.

a test. I think it's a myth by the way that Labour are only split now,

:34:46.:34:53.

over Europe and it has always been a Tory problem, last time I was on I

:34:54.:34:57.

mentioned it. That is why we had a referendum in 75. That is why they

:34:58.:35:04.

had a round then. But they were in chaos behind the scenes over what

:35:05.:35:09.

they thought about the euro, skillful leadership can paper over

:35:10.:35:14.

the cracks, and to address the wider issue of whether we are now in an

:35:15.:35:18.

era where left right issues have disappeared, and there is more of a

:35:19.:35:22.

regional divide, if you take Europe out of the equation which you can't,

:35:23.:35:30.

but if you were able to, issues about health, transport housing do

:35:31.:35:33.

split more left-right than a regional divide, so I think there is

:35:34.:35:39.

still fundamental left-right issues, but Europe isn't one of them and

:35:40.:35:44.

Europe has to be managed by a Labour leader skill fully and evidently

:35:45.:35:48.

that hasn't happened now. How would you see the by-elections in the

:35:49.:35:53.

current political context? Labour should be walking them, it should be

:35:54.:35:58.

a sign of the March of the Labour Party taking on the current

:35:59.:35:59.

Conservative Government. I don't think they raise any questions about

:36:00.:36:03.

Corbyn's leadership because the people who put him in don't think

:36:04.:36:07.

that winning elections matter, you have to remember this will be the

:36:08.:36:12.

mainstream media, it will be our fault why any of those Labour

:36:13.:36:17.

candidates don't win, the thing that is interesting is whether there is

:36:18.:36:20.

is a role for Ukip. The argument after the referendum was Ukip has

:36:21.:36:24.

done its job, it got the referendum, nothing to see here, I remember

:36:25.:36:30.

speaking to put a Nuttall before he was Ukip leader, on the day after

:36:31.:36:36.

the battle and he said this is Year Zero, where Ukip starts now, and

:36:37.:36:40.

this, and this is the interesting thing, does, do we see this one

:36:41.:36:44.

particular party having a role in the future? And I think it is all to

:36:45.:36:48.

play for, they could not not have stood in this seat. They have to win

:36:49.:36:53.

it to be an electoral force. The Labour candidate in Copeland has

:36:54.:36:56.

made the NHS the issue for her in this, that goes into the left-right,

:36:57.:37:00.

are we spending enough, are we not? That will be a test of what you were

:37:01.:37:06.

saying to see if traditional left-right issue, which at the

:37:07.:37:09.

moment would play Labour's way I would suggest, are big enough to

:37:10.:37:13.

overcome all the things you have been talking about and Matthew has

:37:14.:37:17.

been talking about. Maybe at this particular junction they are not,

:37:18.:37:21.

but I don't think any of those issues will go away, and that is why

:37:22.:37:27.

I question whether we are see the end of a historic left-right divide.

:37:28.:37:33.

At the moment with Europe so prominent, clearly these

:37:34.:37:36.

by-elections are unusual. And they will be a test of leadership for

:37:37.:37:40.

Theresa May in the coming months if not at the moment, as they have been

:37:41.:37:44.

in a way that he hasn't risen to, for the Labour leader.

:37:45.:37:48.

We will be leave on BBC One on the night, February 23rd off back of

:37:49.:37:52.

this week, we will bring you the result of both these crucial

:37:53.:37:54.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:55.:37:58.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:59.:38:01.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:38:02.:38:04.

Hello, I'm Martyn Oates. Politics where you are.

:38:05.:38:14.

Coming up on the Sunday Politics here in the South West:

:38:15.:38:17.

The new education funding formula adds up to less money for schools,

:38:18.:38:20.

And, for the next 20 minutes, I'm joined by Conservative MP

:38:21.:38:27.

Sheryl Murray and Gareth Derrick from the Plymouth Labour Party.

:38:28.:38:29.

Theresa May's now famous definition of the JAMs,

:38:30.:38:35.

the Just About Managing, could be applied to local

:38:36.:38:38.

A survey by a local government think-tank

:38:39.:38:43.

has 94% of councils saying they're planning to increase

:38:44.:38:45.

council tax and what they charge for services.

:38:46.:38:48.

Councils in the south-west, like councils across the country,

:38:49.:38:51.

To make their budgets work, they are all putting up council tax,

:38:52.:38:57.

they are nearly all thinking about increasing charging,

:38:58.:39:02.

to green waste collection to cremations.

:39:03.:39:07.

These issues are as relevant in this region as anywhere else.

:39:08.:39:24.

Here, all our top-tier authorities are considering raising council tax,

:39:25.:39:27.

some by as much as 5%, with a large chunk of that

:39:28.:39:30.

Councils are still waiting to hear how much money they'll get

:39:31.:39:34.

from the government next financial year - but the Local Government

:39:35.:39:37.

Information Unit says most of them aren't confident it'll be enough

:39:38.:39:39.

You will be aware that your colleagues across the region are

:39:40.:39:45.

lining up to say that the government isn't putting enough into local

:39:46.:39:48.

authorities in terms of government grant. You are on the government

:39:49.:39:53.

payroll now, so do you have to say that everything is marvellous? The

:39:54.:39:58.

changes we are seeing, the four-year funding package that councils are

:39:59.:40:04.

going to get, allows them to plan better, which is quite right. I

:40:05.:40:09.

don't think anybody would object to paying a little bit extra council

:40:10.:40:16.

tax to cover social services. On the issue of how the funding is divided

:40:17.:40:21.

up, you will be well aware of something called the rural fair

:40:22.:40:26.

share campaign, where Cornish, Devon and Somerset MPs are leading, and

:40:27.:40:31.

they argue that there is a limited overall cake, but rural areas like

:40:32.:40:35.

in this region do not get a fair share of that. Let's look at

:40:36.:40:42.

Cornwall, for instance. There is the budget you get, and the way you use

:40:43.:40:46.

it. We've got Cornwall Council at the moment one by the Liberal

:40:47.:40:53.

Democrats and the independence, spending ?500,000 on a European city

:40:54.:40:58.

of culture, and that's not going to happen... To be fair, if you look at

:40:59.:41:03.

your conservative colleagues in places like Devon, they are also

:41:04.:41:07.

saying that they are not getting a fair share from the government. I am

:41:08.:41:13.

another full Cornwall, and I do believe that spending ?30,000 on an

:41:14.:41:16.

office in Brussels and applying for a city of culture Project, spending

:41:17.:41:24.

?500,000, which isn't going to happen until after we've left the

:41:25.:41:28.

EU, you have to manage the budget correctly. Have these councils got a

:41:29.:41:38.

point? Absolutely. My take on this is fundamentally different. We are

:41:39.:41:41.

not getting our fair share, and the big picture is worse. There is a

:41:42.:41:46.

very definite significant shift away from central government

:41:47.:41:52.

responsibility to local government responsibilities. What is the result

:41:53.:42:03.

of this budget reduction going to be? It is going to be a systematic

:42:04.:42:09.

form of discrimination in areas like the south-west, where we have

:42:10.:42:13.

relatively low wages and a relatively high number of elderly

:42:14.:42:16.

people. We are not going to be able to afford the care that other parts

:42:17.:42:21.

of the country have, which is very unfair, and a shift away what has

:42:22.:42:27.

happened over many years, a shift towards high quality public services

:42:28.:42:28.

for all. Almost two thirds of children

:42:29.:42:30.

in Devon will lose out under government proposals to change

:42:31.:42:32.

the way schools are funded, Pupils in Devon already receive ?290

:42:33.:42:35.

a year less than the national average, and there's been years

:42:36.:42:39.

of campaigning to improve on that. As one of the county's

:42:40.:42:41.

MPs put it recently, it wasn't expected that when change

:42:42.:42:44.

finally came it would And it's not just

:42:45.:42:47.

Devon that's affected. Does anyone remember the difference

:42:48.:42:51.

between the people that sat on either side of the room

:42:52.:42:56.

when we were having the debate? It's never too young to get

:42:57.:43:00.

engaged in current affairs. But this school is amongst hundreds

:43:01.:43:04.

across the region which is taking politics out of the classroom

:43:05.:43:08.

and direct to Westminster. 11 pupils like me are currently

:43:09.:43:11.

worth ?290 less than other pupils To make it fairer, the government

:43:12.:43:16.

is looking at changing They say we will be better

:43:17.:43:32.

off by a little bit. But Devon County Council has

:43:33.:43:36.

crunched the figures and it says, far from being better off,

:43:37.:43:39.

61.9% of children will lose out. Why should a Devon child be worth

:43:40.:43:42.

that much less than somebody The government's got

:43:43.:43:45.

to do something about it. Meetings between headteachers

:43:46.:43:48.

and union representatives have been taking place all over the country

:43:49.:43:50.

to put pressure on the government They claim the region's

:43:51.:43:53.

schools could be more than ?105 million worse off

:43:54.:43:57.

within the next three years. They say this is because of rises

:43:58.:44:02.

in inflation, and lastly,

:44:03.:44:07.

the apprenticeship levy, which is all likely

:44:08.:44:17.

to result in fewer teachers We've cut right the way back

:44:18.:44:21.

in recent years anyway. The only things left

:44:22.:44:28.

to cut, unfortunately, That's why headteachers across Devon

:44:29.:44:29.

and Cornwall are sending out letters to parents asking them to get

:44:30.:44:37.

involved and write to their MP. It would really help

:44:38.:44:41.

if everyone wrote and made You can't sit there and say

:44:42.:44:44.

it is the schools' job to do it. Your children go there, so you've

:44:45.:44:50.

got a bit of a responsibility to make sure you support

:44:51.:44:52.

the school your children go to. The more pressure we put on,

:44:53.:44:55.

hopefully, the more action The government, however,

:44:56.:44:58.

says this new formula What we are trying to do is make

:44:59.:45:01.

sure that every single child, wherever they are growing up

:45:02.:45:07.

in England, gets the same amount of funding, and then a top-up

:45:08.:45:10.

in relation to additional needs, whether it's in relation

:45:11.:45:13.

to deprivation, which has been based on out-of-date data up until now,

:45:14.:45:16.

or additional funding Even Devon's Tory MPs

:45:17.:45:20.

are threatening to oppose If these proposals are adopted,

:45:21.:45:25.

we're going to have 15 primary schools gaining,

:45:26.:45:29.

20 losing out, and all the secondary This is clearly neither

:45:30.:45:34.

fair nor acceptable. The government has said that,

:45:35.:45:41.

under this new formula, schools in Devon, Cornwall,

:45:42.:45:46.

Somerset and Dorset will benefit. The consultation runs until March

:45:47.:45:48.

22nd, and it is keen to hear from parents,

:45:49.:45:51.

schools, governors - This is very similar to the argument

:45:52.:46:07.

about Council funding. What do you say to fellow conservatives like

:46:08.:46:12.

John Hart who say that these changes, astonishingly to them, are

:46:13.:46:18.

making the situation in places like Devon less fair? I would say,

:46:19.:46:24.

remember this is a consultation. It doesn't end until the middle of

:46:25.:46:29.

March, maybe the last week of March, and they have a chance to make their

:46:30.:46:37.

views known on the transitional situation, on the funding situation,

:46:38.:46:40.

and, at the end of the day, I also have to remember, from Cornwall's

:46:41.:46:48.

perspective, a portfolio holder for the children services himself has

:46:49.:46:54.

said that he sympathises with the Department for Education when he

:46:55.:47:03.

says the unions are basing their estimations on untrue or out of date

:47:04.:47:11.

that your conservative colleagues in that your conservative colleagues in

:47:12.:47:14.

the House of Commons or in local government are going to be putting

:47:15.:47:19.

total faith in data reduced by the unions. They have the same

:47:20.:47:23.

opportunity as me to go to the Minister and tell him what they

:47:24.:47:28.

feel, because we are in a consultation period. So you think

:47:29.:47:32.

the government might move on this? I think they are listening. We have to

:47:33.:47:37.

remember that authorities such as Cornwall have done very, very badly,

:47:38.:47:42.

and Westminster schools and other areas have done extremely well. And

:47:43.:47:47.

it's only right that fairness is what comes into it. Having a worse

:47:48.:47:52.

funding situation in Devon isn't addressing that. It is fairness. At

:47:53.:47:58.

the end of the day, I have to say that I do believe that the trade

:47:59.:48:05.

and unacceptable information, and it and unacceptable information, and it

:48:06.:48:09.

isn't right. I have read the same data and I have come to the same

:48:10.:48:14.

conclusion. It is fundamentally unfair that our children in Devon

:48:15.:48:18.

and Cornwall are getting around ?300 less a year. And it isn't being

:48:19.:48:23.

addressed. The idea of the consultation is to make it fairer

:48:24.:48:28.

for everybody. Isn't it astonishing that after several years of

:48:29.:48:32.

lobbying, the proposal on the table should be less fair for somewhere

:48:33.:48:37.

like Devon, which was at the bottom of the

:48:38.:48:47.

heap anyway. It is a consultation, so let's see what the proposals are.

:48:48.:48:51.

We have seen this formula with this government, where they promise

:48:52.:48:53.

something on one hand, and it disappears on the other, like tax

:48:54.:49:00.

credit and the National Living Wage. Identify the stats to my fingertips,

:49:01.:49:07.

but... To the end of the last Labour government, you had just begun a

:49:08.:49:12.

consultation. It wasn't addressed. Pupils in the south-west were

:49:13.:49:16.

treated very, very unfairly compared to other city areas, and we are

:49:17.:49:23.

trying to move to a fair system for everybody. It is quite right that

:49:24.:49:27.

you have to have transitional measures. The south-west has been

:49:28.:49:34.

unfairly treated for a long time. By your government. Possibly in the

:49:35.:49:41.

past, but something has to be done about it. Fair funding has to be

:49:42.:49:46.

delivered, and it is shameful that it isn't. It is a consultation, so

:49:47.:49:52.

let's see. It will remain a lively issue.

:49:53.:49:54.

The Government published a white paper this week aimed at fixing

:49:55.:49:57.

It calls for more affordable housing and for small developers

:49:58.:50:00.

That could be good news in the South Hams, which has some

:50:01.:50:04.

of the highest average house prices and rents in the country,

:50:05.:50:07.

But some fear it will just smooth the way for big profits for those

:50:08.:50:12.

who can build houses and sell them on the open market.

:50:13.:50:15.

Councils all over England are under pressure to build more houses.

:50:16.:50:18.

This is just the first phase of 5,500 homes which will eventually

:50:19.:50:21.

be built here at Sherford, effectively a new town sandwiched

:50:22.:50:24.

But the government wants more, and the South Hams is feeling

:50:25.:50:31.

Developers think, "Whay! We can do what we like."

:50:32.:50:40.

Alison Ansell is chair of the parish council here in Newton Ferrers.

:50:41.:50:44.

The village is an area of outstanding natural beauty,

:50:45.:50:47.

and on a heritage coast, yet, despite nearly 50

:50:48.:50:50.

objections and protestations from parish councillors,

:50:51.:50:54.

plans have just been approved for five new homes on this

:50:55.:50:58.

agricultural land at the west of the village.

:50:59.:51:02.

We're very much pro-development, but we want the sort of development

:51:03.:51:05.

that's going to improve life for our villagers and encourage

:51:06.:51:09.

At the moment, we've got a developers' open field day.

:51:10.:51:16.

Just up the road is a development of 15 affordable homes, much more

:51:17.:51:20.

in line with what the government and Alison would

:51:21.:51:23.

As chair of the Neighbourhood Plan steering group,

:51:24.:51:27.

Alison and the local community should be able to shape

:51:28.:51:31.

The whole point of doing the Neighbourhood Plan is we have

:51:32.:51:36.

been assured that this will be a legal document,

:51:37.:51:39.

and it will give us the ultimate say in what goes

:51:40.:51:43.

where and how it goes where - in all respects.

:51:44.:51:47.

And, basically, it can't happen soon enough, for me.

:51:48.:51:51.

This week's Housing White Paper is aimed at encouraging small

:51:52.:51:55.

developers to come forward and build more homes, but some fear the driver

:51:56.:51:59.

will be profit from properties built for the open market.

:52:00.:52:03.

There have been some disgraceful decisions taken lately.

:52:04.:52:06.

The reality is what the people of South Hams want,

:52:07.:52:10.

and the people I represent, are houses which they

:52:11.:52:12.

can genuinely afford, not ?350,000 houses,

:52:13.:52:15.

such as were agreed recently at a planning committee.

:52:16.:52:18.

South Hams District Council says affordable homes always have been

:52:19.:52:22.

The White Paper concentrates on building a mix of housing -

:52:23.:52:29.

rented, shared ownership and starter homes.

:52:30.:52:38.

That is what the White Paper concentrates on.

:52:39.:52:41.

It doesn't talk about market value, luxury houses which you are talking

:52:42.:52:45.

Both the parish council and the local MP, Gary Streeter,

:52:46.:52:51.

have now written to South Hams District Council, expressing

:52:52.:52:54.

their concerns that the views of local people and councillors

:52:55.:52:57.

in Newton Ferrers are not being taken into account.

:52:58.:53:00.

Whether or not the White Paper will change that remains to be seen.

:53:01.:53:11.

We are joined now by the architect, Peregrine Mears. You once did a

:53:12.:53:21.

stock take on this and realise that we spent more air time on this

:53:22.:53:25.

programme discussing affordable housing than anything else. Do you

:53:26.:53:29.

think this white paper takes us forward at all? I think it has some

:53:30.:53:34.

different aspects to it. The government wants to make more now

:53:35.:53:38.

and available for housing. Secondly, it is aimed at speeding up the

:53:39.:53:43.

process of delivering houses. Thirdly, there's an element of

:53:44.:53:49.

encouraging innovation. The problem with the whole planning system in

:53:50.:53:53.

this country is it is mired in bureaucracy. It slows down the whole

:53:54.:53:59.

process of delivering housing. It takes longer to get planning

:54:00.:54:02.

permission for a development than it does to build it. It's crazy. What

:54:03.:54:10.

happened to the presumption of sustainable development, as it was

:54:11.:54:13.

called a few years ago? The government then was saying that they

:54:14.:54:18.

needed to speed up the planning process. That is still in the

:54:19.:54:22.

national planning framework, but it is a vague aim. What local planning

:54:23.:54:28.

authorities want is more resources and a clearer definition of what

:54:29.:54:38.

they can and cannot approve. I can remember Labour ministers, coalition

:54:39.:54:41.

ministers, saying that we must really knuckle down and get on with

:54:42.:54:47.

this, free up the planning system, tell people that building is

:54:48.:54:52.

necessary. Still the problem remains that this is issued obstacle.

:54:53.:54:58.

190,000 new homes were built last year, and the need was around 220

:54:59.:55:07.

5000. We can't go on like this. With this housing bill, we will not only

:55:08.:55:15.

see what Peregrine has outlined, but it is also looking at utilising very

:55:16.:55:23.

sure they go up quickly. The sure they go up quickly. The

:55:24.:55:26.

government have said they will release land themselves to enable

:55:27.:55:29.

some of these houses to be built. Local plans, which of course

:55:30.:55:37.

Peregrine didn't allude to, but they form part of the planning law. We

:55:38.:55:43.

have been talking about neighbourhood plans for a long time

:55:44.:55:48.

now as well. They should be in place now. Local government has dragged

:55:49.:55:55.

its heels. What the bill says is they have to be reviewed every five

:55:56.:55:59.

years so that they are updated with the actual requirements. I don't

:56:00.:56:05.

think we should blame local councils too much. Plymouth has 10,000 homes

:56:06.:56:11.

ready to go, but they are not being taken forward by the builders. This

:56:12.:56:15.

is a sort of U-turn by the government, bringing in some very

:56:16.:56:19.

welcome policies that Labour was talking about in the past. Lovely to

:56:20.:56:26.

hear a Labour person say that! But one or two things are missing,

:56:27.:56:29.

especially when the focus is on social housing. The government has

:56:30.:56:33.

failed to reintroduce the social housing grant that was cut five

:56:34.:56:38.

years ago. I think you will find that there is an element in the bill

:56:39.:56:42.

to say that local authorities will have the ability to be able to

:56:43.:56:47.

provide houses to rent at realistic rates. I would like to see that

:56:48.:56:53.

reinstated, because it is a really important factor in the viability of

:56:54.:56:59.

social housing. The other thing is that councils are captain the amount

:57:00.:57:04.

to borrow to build social housing. This would not cost the government

:57:05.:57:11.

money. Michael Portillo was advocating this last night, of all

:57:12.:57:16.

people. The bill does include a protection for tenants in private

:57:17.:57:21.

rented accommodation. It isn't always new builds. It's utilising

:57:22.:57:28.

empty homes. It is utilising other buildings that can be converted. In

:57:29.:57:33.

terms of housing to buy, what is defined as a first-time buyer is

:57:34.:57:39.

someone commanding less than ?80,000 and buying a house worth less than

:57:40.:57:47.

?250,000. We have to make sure that people's wages increase and that the

:57:48.:57:54.

economy improves. But that will not happen in constituencies like yours.

:57:55.:57:59.

You are on another planet. I am optimistic that the economy of South

:58:00.:58:03.

East Cornwall is growing, and people will be better off with that, and

:58:04.:58:07.

will find that some houses are more affordable. To wrap up, Peregrine,

:58:08.:58:14.

what would you do? We would like to see the planning system streamlined

:58:15.:58:18.

completely to make the process quicker and easier, so local

:58:19.:58:21.

authorities could adopt design codes to allow housing of a certain type

:58:22.:58:27.

and density to be built. They could reduce the amount of red tape

:58:28.:58:30.

involved in the planning stage, so that developers could get on quickly

:58:31.:58:35.

and they can secure funding and the whole process can be delivered more

:58:36.:58:39.

quickly. It will not be the last time we discussed this.

:58:40.:58:42.

Now our regular round-up of the political week in 60 seconds.

:58:43.:58:46.

No, not the occupants of the House of Commons.

:58:47.:58:50.

The seagulls a Plymouth MP says need to be brought under control.

:58:51.:58:55.

This is an important matter, and I hope the government will act

:58:56.:58:59.

before someone is really hurt, yet again, by an aggressive seagull.

:59:00.:59:05.

Meanwhile, Westminster comes - almost - to the seaside,

:59:06.:59:08.

as the cross-party Brexit committee hears evidence in Truro.

:59:09.:59:12.

Devon and Cornwall Police is criticised for under-recording

:59:13.:59:16.

What's important to emphasise is that the victims of crime

:59:17.:59:21.

remain at the heart of what we do here in Devon and Cornwall.

:59:22.:59:24.

The historic states of Jersey could end centuries of tradition

:59:25.:59:28.

and rename itself "the government" to avoid confusing people.

:59:29.:59:33.

And claims that plans to build a garden suburb in Taunton

:59:34.:59:36.

The much-trumpeted Taunton Garden Town could well turn out

:59:37.:59:43.

Gareth, as a former naval office, I imagine seagulls hold no fears for

:59:44.:00:02.

you. This is a serious problem, isn't it? It is a serious problem, I

:00:03.:00:08.

agree. And Plymouth has done a lot of work on it. I'm sure many other

:00:09.:00:14.

places have to. It is interesting because they have tried to sort it

:00:15.:00:19.

out through many ways - contraception, removing eggs and so

:00:20.:00:23.

on. But the thing that has proven to be at the heart of this problem time

:00:24.:00:29.

and time again is waste food being left out through various avenues.

:00:30.:00:33.

Maybe it isn't being collected enough. It was very interesting to

:00:34.:00:38.

hear Oliver Cromwell criticising the Council for their plans. It has been

:00:39.:00:45.

councillor, Martin. One of the councillor, Martin. One of the

:00:46.:00:48.

things I would point out is there are a number of things in place now

:00:49.:00:53.

that councils can use to address this problem. Cornwall Council are

:00:54.:00:59.

pro founding seagull proves sacks for your rubbish. We will leave it

:01:00.:01:03.

there now. After the excitement and late nights

:01:04.:01:05.

in the Commons last week, MPs are having a little break this

:01:06.:01:16.

week as we head into But there's still plenty

:01:17.:01:19.

in the diary in the near future - let's just remind ourselves of some

:01:20.:01:23.

key upcoming dates. There they are. We have the two

:01:24.:01:37.

by-elections on February 23rd. The budget is 8th March. That will be

:01:38.:01:41.

the last spring budget under this Government because it moves to the

:01:42.:01:43.

autumn. That round of French elections

:01:44.:02:02.

narrows the candidates, probably about eight or nine, down to two,

:02:03.:02:07.

the two who come first and second, then go into a play off round on May

:02:08.:02:13.

7th. That will determine the next President. Steve, listening to

:02:14.:02:19.

Oliver Letwin and to the Labour leader in the House of Lords, is

:02:20.:02:23.

there any way you think that end of March deadline for Mrs May could be

:02:24.:02:28.

in jeopardy? No, I don't. Andrew Smith couldn't have been clearer

:02:29.:02:32.

with you they would do nothing to block not just Article 50 but that

:02:33.:02:36.

timetable, so I would be surprised if they don't make it. Given her,

:02:37.:02:42.

Theresa May's explicit determination to do so, not to do so would have

:02:43.:02:48.

become a problem for her, I think one way or another... No before this

:02:49.:02:53.

vote last week there was a vote nor the deadline, to agree the deadline

:02:54.:02:56.

by all sides. Plain sailing do you think? There is no serious

:02:57.:03:01.

Parliamentary resistance and it would be a personal embarrassment, I

:03:02.:03:04.

think for the Prime Minister to name the the end of March as the deadline

:03:05.:03:08.

and to miss it, unless she has a good excuse. I I reckon it will

:03:09.:03:13.

change the atmosphere of politics for the next two years, as soon as

:03:14.:03:17.

the negotiations begin, people in our profession will hunt for any

:03:18.:03:21.

detail and inside information we can find, thing also be leaked, I think

:03:22.:03:25.

from the European side from time to time, it will dominate the headlines

:03:26.:03:29.

for a solid two years and change politics. Let me just raise a

:03:30.:03:34.

possible, a dark cloud. No bigger than man's hand, that can complicate

:03:35.:03:39.

the timetable, because the Royal Assent on the current timetable has

:03:40.:03:44.

to come round the 13th. I would suggest that the Prime Minister

:03:45.:03:48.

can't trigger that until she does get the Royal Assent. If there is a

:03:49.:03:54.

bit of ping-pong that could delay that by receive day, the last thing

:03:55.:03:58.

the Europeans would want, they have another big meeting at the end of

:03:59.:04:04.

March which is the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. They don't

:04:05.:04:09.

want Article 50 to land on the table... It would infuriate

:04:10.:04:15.

everybody. My guess is she will have done it by then, this is between the

:04:16.:04:19.

Commons and the Lords, I mean Andrew Smith couldn't have been clearer,

:04:20.:04:24.

that they might send something back but they didn't expect a kind of a

:04:25.:04:31.

long play over this, so. The Liberal Democrats, they are almost an

:04:32.:04:36.

irrelevance in the Commons but not the Lords, they feel differently.

:04:37.:04:41.

Now, we don't know yet what the European Union negotiating position

:04:42.:04:45.

is going to be, we don't know because there are several crucial

:04:46.:04:47.

elections taking place, the Dutch taking place in March and then the

:04:48.:04:52.

one we put up, the French, and, at the moment, the French one is, it

:04:53.:04:57.

seems like it is coming down, to a play-off in the second round between

:04:58.:05:03.

Madame Le Pen who could come first in the first round and this Blairite

:05:04.:05:10.

figure, independent, centre-leftish Mr Macron, he may well get through

:05:11.:05:15.

and that, and the outcome of that will be an important determine napt

:05:16.:05:20.

on our negotiations. -- determinant. You o couldn't have two more

:05:21.:05:25.

different candidate, you have a national a front candidate and on

:05:26.:05:29.

the other hand the closest thing France could have you to a liberal

:05:30.:05:36.

President. With a small l. A reformist liberal President. It

:05:37.:05:40.

would be the most French thing in the world to elect someone who while

:05:41.:05:48.

the rest of the world is elected elitist, to elect someone who is the

:05:49.:05:53.

son of a teacher, who has liberal views, is a member of the French

:05:54.:06:00.

elite. It would be a thing for them to elect a man like that which I why

:06:01.:06:08.

I see them doing it. If it is Le Pen, Brexit becomes a minor

:06:09.:06:13.

sideshow, if it is Le Pen, the future of the European Union is?

:06:14.:06:17.

Danger, regardless of whether we are were in or out. I suggest if it is

:06:18.:06:24.

Mr Macron that presents some problems. He doesn't have his own

:06:25.:06:28.

party. He won't have a majority in the French assembly, he is untried

:06:29.:06:32.

and untested. He wants to do a number of things that will be

:06:33.:06:37.

unpopular which is why a number of people close to Mrs Le Pen tell me

:06:38.:06:44.

that she has her eye on 2022. She thinks lit go to hell in a hand

:06:45.:06:53.

basket under Mr Macron. He hasn't got the experience. What I find

:06:54.:06:58.

fascinating. It is not just all to play for in France, it is the fact

:06:59.:07:02.

what happens in France and Germany, not so much Holland I think but

:07:03.:07:08.

Germany later on in the year, how much it impacts what we are going to

:07:09.:07:17.

get. How much which ex #i78 panting on them. And at the time we are

:07:18.:07:25.

trying to, withdrawing ourself from European politics it is fascinating

:07:26.:07:28.

how much it will affect us. You see what Matthew was talking about

:07:29.:07:34.

earlier in the show, that what we do know, almost for sure, is that the

:07:35.:07:37.

socialist candidate will not get through to the second round. He

:07:38.:07:42.

could come firth but the centre-right candidate. If we were

:07:43.:07:46.

discussing that monthing a we would say it between teen the centre-right

:07:47.:07:50.

and the national fronts. We are to saying that. Matthew good win who

:07:51.:07:56.

spent a time in France isn't sure Le Pen will get into the second round,

:07:57.:08:00.

which is interesting. It is, I mean, it is going to be as important for

:08:01.:08:08.

the future of the European Union, as in retrospect the British 2015

:08:09.:08:11.

general election was, if Labour had got in there would have been no

:08:12.:08:15.

referendum. That referendum has transformed the European Union

:08:16.:08:20.

because we are leaving and the French election is significant. We

:08:21.:08:24.

will be live from Paris on April 23rd on the day France goings to the

:08:25.:08:31.

first round of polls. Tom Watson, he was on The Andrew Marr Show earlier

:08:32.:08:34.

today, was asked about Mr Corbyn, this is what he had to say.

:08:35.:08:39.

We had a damaging second leadership election, so we've got

:08:40.:08:42.

The polls aren't great for us, but I'm determined now we've got

:08:43.:08:46.

the leadership settled for this parliament, that we can focus

:08:47.:08:49.

on developing a very positive clear message to the British people

:08:50.:08:51.

So Julia, I don't know who are you are giggling. I find it untenable

:08:52.:09:07.

that, he is a very good media performer and he comes on and he is

:09:08.:09:12.

sitting there so well, you know, things are bad but don't worry we

:09:13.:09:15.

are looking at what we can do to win 2020. The idea that Tony Blair and

:09:16.:09:20.

Gordon Brown were sitting in their offices or on TV screens at this

:09:21.:09:25.

time in the electoral cycle thinking well I wonder if we can come up with

:09:26.:09:29.

a policy the British people might like. It is a nonsense, this is

:09:30.:09:37.

Tuesday night book zlufb. I am going to ask you the question I was going

:09:38.:09:45.

to before. I would suggest that he the right. The deputy Labour leader

:09:46.:09:51.

Tom Watson is violent the leadership is settled, with one caveat, unless

:09:52.:09:55.

the Corbynistas themselves to decide to move on Mr Corbyn, if the left of

:09:56.:10:01.

the Labour Party decides then it is not settled. Settled. If that

:10:02.:10:06.

doesn't happen that is That would be the worst situation if you are a

:10:07.:10:10.

Labour moderate. The Corbynistas would be saying the problem is no

:10:11.:10:16.

Corbynism, it is Corbyn himself, if we a younger person leading the

:10:17.:10:22.

process we can win the next general election, which means you have

:10:23.:10:25.

another itration of this, another five year experiment. And that is

:10:26.:10:33.

worst of all. If you are a Labour moderate, what you want is Jeremy

:10:34.:10:38.

Corbyn contest the next general election, possibly loses badly and

:10:39.:10:42.

then a Labour not moderate runs for the leadership saying we have tried

:10:43.:10:47.

your way, the worst would be Corbyn going, and a younger seven version

:10:48.:10:51.

of him trying and the experiment being extended. I see no easy way

:10:52.:10:57.

out of this. That is why he radiated the enthusiasm of someone in a

:10:58.:11:02.

hostage video in that interview. Maybe he has the Stockholm Syndrome

:11:03.:11:08.

now. The Labour moderates have had their day in the sun, two days in

:11:09.:11:12.

the sun and they lost. I suggest they are not going to try for the

:11:13.:11:17.

hat-trick again. Is there any indication that on the more Corbyn

:11:18.:11:23.

wing of the Labour Party, there is now doubts about their man. Yes,

:11:24.:11:29.

just to translate Tom Watson, what he meant was I Tom Watson am not

:11:30.:11:34.

going to get involved in another attempted coup. I tried it and it

:11:35.:11:39.

was a catastrophe. That is question enhe says it is set selled. It is

:11:40.:11:44.

because there is speculation on a daily basis. I disagree, Julia said

:11:45.:11:50.

I think this lot don't care about winning, I think they do. If the

:11:51.:11:55.

current position continue, one of two things will happen. Either

:11:56.:12:00.

Jeremy Corbyn will decide himself will decide he doesn't want to carry

:12:01.:12:05.

on. He half enjoys I it and half hates it. Finds it a strain. If that

:12:06.:12:10.

doesn't happen there will be some people round him who will say, look,

:12:11.:12:18.

this isn't working. There is another three-and-a-half years. There is a

:12:19.:12:22.

long way to go. I can't see it lasting in this way with politics in

:12:23.:12:27.

a state of flux, Tories will be under pressure in the coming two

:12:28.:12:33.

years, to have opinion polls at this level, I think is unsustainable.

:12:34.:12:37.

Final thought from you.? Yes, the idea it St another three-and-a-half

:12:38.:12:41.

years is just madness, but the people we are putting up at

:12:42.:12:46.

replacement for Jeremy Corbyn, and they have been focus grouping them.

:12:47.:12:51.

Most members wouldn't know who most of people were let alone most of the

:12:52.:12:53.

public. Angela rain? They are not

:12:54.:13:02.

overwhelmed with leadership potential at the moment. Very

:13:03.:13:07.

diplomatically put. Neither are the Tories, but they happened to have

:13:08.:13:09.

one at the moment. All right. That is it.

:13:10.:13:13.

Now, there's no Daily or Sunday Politics for the next week

:13:14.:13:16.

But the Daily Politics will be back on Monday 20th February and I'll be

:13:17.:13:20.

back here with the Sunday Politics on the 26th.

:13:21.:13:24.

Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics...

:13:25.:13:26.

Just back from a very long shift at work...

:13:27.:14:08.

The staff are losing - they're just giving in.

:14:09.:14:14.

Panorama goes undercover to reveal the real cost

:14:15.:14:20.

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