05/02/2017 Sunday Politics South West


05/02/2017

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It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

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Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",

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and this week her government will announce new measures to boost

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the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.

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After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules

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it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle

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tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House

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is making good on his campaign promises.

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As the Government gets into gear for two years

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of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come

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over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -

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and the costs and savings once we've left.

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The view of south-west farmers and exporters.

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And with me, as always, a trio of top political

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journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,

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So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House

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of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way

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Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,

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with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.

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Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn

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will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted

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Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally

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Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -

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blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy

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The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked

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about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.

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The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,

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and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.

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Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very

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difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,

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Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.

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We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,

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But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,

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we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.

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That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water

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torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a

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situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has

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drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.

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What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite

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plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The

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only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.

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Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere

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else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but

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Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of

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the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would

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like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do

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something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the

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main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on

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Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article

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50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to

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abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the

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North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of

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our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered

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policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is

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divided and we represent the country, in other words we are

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divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial

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moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called

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meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a

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point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is

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a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for

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that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's

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negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain

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sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting

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against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have

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been a token gesture with no support. But there might be

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meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The

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government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of

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those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates

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the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved

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on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I

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struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the

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bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not

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everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on

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Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little

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earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say

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this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in

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power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week

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may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.

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Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people

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on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week

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we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -

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when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters

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are published in the Government's new white paper.

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Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU

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by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing

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Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,

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and the likely costs and savings once we've left.

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It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.

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It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -

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vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.

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So, is that what's going to happen now?

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The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them

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and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts

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She needs something quicker, something more sporty.

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According to the most recent Treasury figures,

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Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate

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is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.

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There are some complicating factors that means it can go up

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or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK

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will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.

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But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.

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First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.

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It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier

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and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability

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as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion

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The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely

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to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,

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but what does the money they are going to argue

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Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's

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already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are

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Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,

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so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten

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Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded

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spending commitments, the so-called RAL.

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Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros

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for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again

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12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.

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Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.

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They include things like this building, the European Commission

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Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion

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euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.

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So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.

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They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks

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because actually they can hold us to ransom.

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They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.

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But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think

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a lot of European states think they are in a very strong

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negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make

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The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast

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contributions to the European Union every year will end.

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Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up

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to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.

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The Europol for example, that's the European crime

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agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.

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If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK

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675 million euros a year, based on analysis by

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But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.

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If we only opted back to those dealing with security,

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trade, universities and, say, climate change,

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it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.

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Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.

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I wonder if they're going to let me in!

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There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve

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trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part

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Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes

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between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.

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That costs 4 million euros to run each year,

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though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,

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the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent

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Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some

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contribution for some preferential access to its market?

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The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting

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at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership

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Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,

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pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,

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but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.

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The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified

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in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated

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and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate

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Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat

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when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's

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But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such

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Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!

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And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet

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by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,

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and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.

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Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at

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the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make

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of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we

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should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former

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ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about

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the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I

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personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about

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getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our

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departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce

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settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until

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they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,

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if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come

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in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has

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a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the

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divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.

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Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or

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thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a

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softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the

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divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as

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the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the

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atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in

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Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure

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or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions

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believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations

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start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are

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prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the

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cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a

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figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because

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negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even

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60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa

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May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You

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could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would

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be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour

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Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should

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give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let

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her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few

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weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much

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detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's

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helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red

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line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if

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there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what

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the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't

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have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but

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spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or

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what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the

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NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.

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Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The

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question of whether something is political possible for her in terms

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of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the

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European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up

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settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be

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politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult

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for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.

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Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this

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issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May

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to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and

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will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.

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What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?

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Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here

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and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite

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bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all

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the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in

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Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in

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Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the

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Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans

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or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At

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the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for

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the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who

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will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is

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not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the

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UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit

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scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want

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to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to

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security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that

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was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is

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more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a

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little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price

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ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime

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Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our

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own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part

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of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other

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options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are

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looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with

:18:37.:18:39.

recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing

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boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in

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practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,

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Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a

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country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be

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quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of

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the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and

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eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it

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is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the

:19:18.:19:23.

tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having

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mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,

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but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of

:19:32.:19:36.

origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish

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because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of

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customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the

:19:44.:19:46.

South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we

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don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to

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lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the

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negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic

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reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the

:20:04.:20:20.

solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a

:20:21.:20:23.

positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it

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turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't

:20:26.:20:28.

really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the

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wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up

:20:32.:20:35.

crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free

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trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very

:20:39.:20:44.

hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from

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you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard

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crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional

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arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We

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will leave it there. Thank you, both.

:21:03.:21:04.

Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants

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and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim

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countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.

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On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it

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That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets

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criticising what he says was a terrible decision

:21:19.:21:21.

by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department

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Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate

:21:24.:21:31.

the ban until it hears the case in full.

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Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant

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I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban

:21:48.:21:50.

was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration

:21:51.:21:52.

There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the

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facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly

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inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out

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of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias

:22:18.:22:26.

and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are

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no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what

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I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order

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being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't

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travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no

:22:48.:22:56.

chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,

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National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",

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what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not

:23:08.:23:10.

going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the

:23:11.:23:16.

world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama

:23:17.:23:24.

Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some

:23:25.:23:28.

kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that

:23:29.:23:32.

they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the

:23:33.:23:36.

last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any

:23:37.:23:42.

multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?

:23:43.:23:48.

Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what

:23:49.:23:51.

President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of

:23:52.:23:56.

general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in

:23:57.:24:01.

seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real

:24:02.:24:08.

coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created

:24:09.:24:14.

under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want

:24:15.:24:19.

to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come

:24:20.:24:27.

together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups

:24:28.:24:33.

like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with

:24:34.:24:38.

these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral

:24:39.:24:42.

alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically

:24:43.:24:46.

talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish

:24:47.:24:51.

to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are

:24:52.:24:55.

simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's

:24:56.:24:59.

agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's

:25:00.:25:03.

only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So

:25:04.:25:08.

he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato

:25:09.:25:19.

is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the

:25:20.:25:25.

spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat

:25:26.:25:29.

up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to

:25:30.:25:36.

that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the

:25:37.:25:41.

salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I

:25:42.:25:48.

and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is

:25:49.:25:59.

not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump

:26:00.:26:04.

administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very

:26:05.:26:07.

interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the

:26:08.:26:14.

EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up

:26:15.:26:19.

to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was

:26:20.:26:25.

wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy

:26:26.:26:30.

was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even

:26:31.:26:34.

become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so

:26:35.:26:38.

would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I

:26:39.:26:43.

will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to

:26:44.:26:46.

have the best relations possible with our European allies, and

:26:47.:26:51.

whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself

:26:52.:26:55.

suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European

:26:56.:26:59.

nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that

:27:00.:27:04.

answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is

:27:05.:27:09.

to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral

:27:10.:27:14.

institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an

:27:15.:27:21.

unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the

:27:22.:27:25.

opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to

:27:26.:27:30.

nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think

:27:31.:27:36.

it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that

:27:37.:27:39.

don't take the interests of the populations they represent into

:27:40.:27:45.

account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became

:27:46.:27:51.

President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are

:27:52.:27:55.

obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about

:27:56.:27:58.

the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the

:27:59.:28:03.

interests of the people they represent. Given the

:28:04.:28:06.

unpredictability of the new president, you never really know

:28:07.:28:09.

what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime

:28:10.:28:14.

Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish

:28:15.:28:21.

questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen

:28:22.:28:25.

to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may

:28:26.:28:30.

be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and

:28:31.:28:34.

the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that

:28:35.:28:40.

we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about

:28:41.:28:45.

Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do

:28:46.:28:51.

next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his

:28:52.:28:55.

election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are

:28:56.:29:02.

flourishing economy, and most important of all from your

:29:03.:29:06.

perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends

:29:07.:29:11.

and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and

:29:12.:29:16.

we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.

:29:17.:29:23.

Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political

:29:24.:29:31.

capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed

:29:32.:29:32.

change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out

:29:33.:29:35.

of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just

:29:36.:29:38.

about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense

:29:39.:29:41.

of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost

:29:42.:29:44.

of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's

:29:45.:29:47.

new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce

:29:48.:29:49.

new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid

:29:50.:29:51.

has previously said politicians should not stand in the way

:29:52.:29:57.

of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures

:29:58.:30:00.

to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised

:30:01.:30:04.

to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas

:30:05.:30:06.

on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be

:30:07.:30:10.

relaxation of building height restrictions,

:30:11.:30:12.

allowing home owners and developers to build to the height

:30:13.:30:14.

of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek

:30:15.:30:17.

planning permission. Other elements trialled include

:30:18.:30:23.

new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land

:30:24.:30:27.

without building homes, land banking, and moving railway

:30:28.:30:29.

station car parks Underground, The Government today said it

:30:30.:30:31.

will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically

:30:32.:30:39.

to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability

:30:40.:30:42.

for young families, alongside its proposed ban

:30:43.:30:44.

on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,

:30:45.:30:52.

Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home

:30:53.:31:01.

ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now

:31:02.:31:04.

emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the

:31:05.:31:09.

Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on

:31:10.:31:13.

that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So

:31:14.:31:18.

far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we

:31:19.:31:21.

absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do

:31:22.:31:26.

so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for

:31:27.:31:29.

everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who

:31:30.:31:33.

want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,

:31:34.:31:37.

used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this

:31:38.:31:42.

government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have

:31:43.:31:47.

stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't

:31:48.:31:51.

bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the

:31:52.:31:55.

decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard

:31:56.:31:59.

the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have

:32:00.:32:03.

helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of

:32:04.:32:07.

it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You

:32:08.:32:11.

say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%

:32:12.:32:17.

additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent

:32:18.:32:21.

properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the

:32:22.:32:25.

speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised

:32:26.:32:28.

concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there

:32:29.:32:33.

is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional

:32:34.:32:40.

investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on

:32:41.:32:44.

the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional

:32:45.:32:49.

money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones

:32:50.:32:51.

before said it would get pension fund money to invest in

:32:52.:32:54.

infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is

:32:55.:32:59.

already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see

:33:00.:33:02.

some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the

:33:03.:33:06.

White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to

:33:07.:33:17.

rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other

:33:18.:33:20.

day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money

:33:21.:33:22.

on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We

:33:23.:33:25.

need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large

:33:26.:33:28.

developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable

:33:29.:33:35.

renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%

:33:36.:33:41.

below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it

:33:42.:33:45.

another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of

:33:46.:33:50.

their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what

:33:51.:33:53.

we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or

:33:54.:33:56.

rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable

:33:57.:34:00.

because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white

:34:01.:34:04.

Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power

:34:05.:34:08.

six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new

:34:09.:34:16.

homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year

:34:17.:34:19.

programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.

:34:20.:34:24.

The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the

:34:25.:34:27.

last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new

:34:28.:34:30.

programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,

:34:31.:34:35.

this government has built more affordable housing than the previous

:34:36.:34:40.

one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the

:34:41.:34:47.

figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this

:34:48.:34:49.

cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it

:34:50.:34:55.

happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer

:34:56.:34:59.

leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband

:35:00.:35:06.

promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and

:35:07.:35:09.

George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's

:35:10.:35:15.

changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which

:35:16.:35:19.

we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have

:35:20.:35:24.

six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much

:35:25.:35:28.

the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the

:35:29.:35:33.

tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed

:35:34.:35:37.

Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons

:35:38.:35:42.

institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home

:35:43.:35:46.

and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a

:35:47.:35:51.

short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term

:35:52.:35:55.

return and give families more security. You have set a target,

:35:56.:36:02.

your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million

:36:03.:36:06.

new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we

:36:07.:36:13.

are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this

:36:14.:36:16.

country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...

:36:17.:36:24.

2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking

:36:25.:36:30.

about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with

:36:31.:36:34.

respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is

:36:35.:36:39.

wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes

:36:40.:36:44.

built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total

:36:45.:36:46.

change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the

:36:47.:36:52.

figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1

:36:53.:36:57.

million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three

:36:58.:37:02.

quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1

:37:03.:37:07.

million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't

:37:08.:37:11.

do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this

:37:12.:37:16.

country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions

:37:17.:37:19.

or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.

:37:20.:37:24.

If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,

:37:25.:37:30.

100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am

:37:31.:37:35.

confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It

:37:36.:37:39.

is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes

:37:40.:37:43.

are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the

:37:44.:37:49.

white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there

:37:50.:37:53.

for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove

:37:54.:37:58.

land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should

:37:59.:38:00.

look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We

:38:01.:38:06.

have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million

:38:07.:38:12.

homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken

:38:13.:38:16.

housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green

:38:17.:38:19.

belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,

:38:20.:38:22.

Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.

:38:23.:38:24.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:25.:38:27.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...

:38:28.:38:39.

Coming up on the Sunday Politics here in the South West.

:38:40.:38:47.

The town and country view on whether Brexit

:38:48.:38:49.

And for the next 20 minutes I'm joined by Southwest

:38:50.:38:55.

Labour MEP Claire Moodie, and by the Plymouth Conservative

:38:56.:38:57.

Earlier this week hundreds of people took to the streets of Exeter,

:38:58.:39:05.

Plymouth, Falmouth and elsewhere in protest at President Trump's

:39:06.:39:08.

travel ban on people from seven Muslim majority countries.

:39:09.:39:15.

They want his invitation to make a state visit to Britain revoked.

:39:16.:39:18.

He has put out this 90 day ban against several people coming

:39:19.:39:21.

from Muslim majority countries, and we find that extremely

:39:22.:39:23.

nationalist and extremely racist, and altogether just disgusting.

:39:24.:39:35.

So Oliver, that is one of your constituents.

:39:36.:39:37.

Your view is that he should make the state visit and he should make

:39:38.:39:40.

I think you want him to review the Nato fleet

:39:41.:39:44.

Yes, but that is in Mayflower in 2020, when we are commemorating

:39:45.:39:55.

the Mayflower leaving to go and found the American colonies.

:39:56.:39:58.

And we have to remember that Donald Trump was elected

:39:59.:40:00.

and he is just implementing what he promised to do during

:40:01.:40:02.

We may not like that, but he is fulfilling something

:40:03.:40:06.

which often as not politicians can get accused of not fulfilling

:40:07.:40:09.

Do you think he should come, be invited to make the state visit?

:40:10.:40:20.

I think there is undue haste about this invitation

:40:21.:40:22.

It took at least two years for Barack Obama to be

:40:23.:40:31.

I think we have only had ten days so far, of Trump,

:40:32.:40:36.

and I wonder yet what will come between now and June

:40:37.:40:38.

What do you make of Oliver's invitation?

:40:39.:40:46.

I hope you're going to be pro-Mayflower 400?

:40:47.:40:49.

I'm very enthusiastic about celebrating the fourth

:40:50.:40:52.

But I am not sure whether Trump would necessarily, what would

:40:53.:40:56.

He's so prolific on Twitter, we wondered whether he might respond.

:40:57.:41:05.

The first significant step towards Britain leaving the EU

:41:06.:41:18.

was taken this week with MPs voting to trigger Article 50.

:41:19.:41:24.

Research released at the same time says Exeter and Plymouth export

:41:25.:41:27.

a higher percentage of their goods and services to the rest of Europe

:41:28.:41:30.

So are firms in those cities now looking forward to a bright new dawn

:41:31.:41:34.

Although it looks like something out of a futuristic movie,

:41:35.:41:38.

this is very much real life at a factory at the cutting

:41:39.:41:42.

edge of LED technology on the outskirts of Plymouth.

:41:43.:41:45.

But with Brexit uncertainty, there is a hint companies like this

:41:46.:41:47.

could be forced to relocate out of the UK.

:41:48.:41:50.

If this doesn't go well, there is not a sensible way for us

:41:51.:41:53.

Maybe retain this as a development site

:41:54.:42:07.

and scale production, which is always the issue

:42:08.:42:09.

Moving to scale production could move somewhere else.

:42:10.:42:12.

There has been millions of pounds of investment

:42:13.:42:14.

from Germany's Deutsche Bank here, and 70% of the company's

:42:15.:42:16.

Post Brexit there is a clear message about what is needed

:42:17.:42:20.

If we get into a tariff war with Europe, that's

:42:21.:42:28.

Reports this week that Exeter and Plymouth as the top two British

:42:29.:42:42.

cities for exporting goods and services to the EU.

:42:43.:42:45.

The Centre for Cities says around 70% of exports from these two macro

:42:46.:42:48.

places go to Europe, mainly because of marine transport

:42:49.:42:50.

A letter has been winging its way to the Prime Minister

:42:51.:42:58.

from Devon's business world, highlighting this and stressing

:42:59.:43:00.

the importance of access to a tariff free European market

:43:01.:43:02.

2% of our exports from this county actually go to China at the moment,

:43:03.:43:06.

as against potentially 60 to 70% into Europe.

:43:07.:43:09.

So even if we quadruple the amount of exports we were doing to China,

:43:10.:43:18.

if we actually saw any form of reduction on our trade to Europe,

:43:19.:43:21.

we probably still would be worse off.

:43:22.:43:22.

Theresa May set out her stall last month.

:43:23.:43:24.

We will pursue a bold and ambitious free-trade agreement

:43:25.:43:26.

And this week as the starting gun was fired on the road to Brexit,

:43:27.:43:36.

What I have detected is a new confidence in the country,

:43:37.:43:51.

a new positive approach, and new outward looking approach.

:43:52.:44:01.

Business I speak to, despite all the predicted doom

:44:02.:44:04.

and gloom, have said that they are positive

:44:05.:44:05.

We have some fantastic products here, all of

:44:06.:44:09.

Soft drinks, which are also not just sold here in Devon,

:44:10.:44:12.

We have beers sold in France as well as here,

:44:13.:44:18.

and we have crisps which are not just sold here but are doing

:44:19.:44:21.

The south-west's burgeoning food and drink industry,

:44:22.:44:24.

there are questions about how easy it will actually be to break

:44:25.:44:27.

into other markets, like the US and China.

:44:28.:44:29.

One of the beauties of being part of the European market is actually

:44:30.:44:32.

being the ease of access to that and therefore the

:44:33.:44:34.

If you start looking elsewhere, sure, there are opportunities

:44:35.:44:38.

elsewhere, don't get me wrong, Brexit will produce additional

:44:39.:44:40.

opportunities but it is the cost of those opportunities

:44:41.:44:42.

And in Cornwall this week, attempts to tackle the uncertainty around

:44:43.:44:45.

Brexit head-on with a second summit on the issue.

:44:46.:44:48.

The message here echoing those in the business world,

:44:49.:44:50.

be prepared for both the risks and opportunities.

:44:51.:45:02.

We are also joined by the Devon cheese producer Mary Quick,

:45:03.:45:05.

But you export I think most of your cheese to places outside the EU.

:45:06.:45:16.

We have heard a lot of people saying that for people in your position,

:45:17.:45:20.

the EU is a bit of a pain, its regulation being imposed

:45:21.:45:23.

on people who don't really export very much to the EU.

:45:24.:45:26.

First of all, the regulations for cheese tend to be

:45:27.:45:28.

And we really appreciate all of that.

:45:29.:45:41.

We export a bit to the EU, but about 40% is exported,

:45:42.:45:44.

We find that the EU deal with all the nontariff barriers

:45:45.:45:49.

we find and they deal with those very effectively.

:45:50.:45:51.

And where I'm really concerned that we, without that support,

:45:52.:45:55.

DEFRA does not have negotiators, as far as I am aware.

:45:56.:45:57.

They need to develop that depth of experience.

:45:58.:46:00.

Food and drink is 14% of UK GDP, and food and drink negotiations

:46:01.:46:03.

are going to be undertaken by DEFRA, which is a bit scary.

:46:04.:46:06.

I don't think they know the scale of the problem.

:46:07.:46:15.

So you think EU membership actually helps you trade

:46:16.:46:17.

There was an obscure example to do with cheese mite,

:46:18.:46:30.

where the FTA in America were actually stopping

:46:31.:46:36.

the importation of cheese, naturally rinded cheese which had

:46:37.:46:40.

a glorious little beast called cheese mite on it,

:46:41.:46:43.

And I'm really clear that DEFRA would just find it really difficult

:46:44.:46:57.

even to get an appointment to talk about it.

:46:58.:46:59.

Oliver, recently you said you now support the Prime Minister

:47:00.:47:03.

in a clean break from the EU, which you supported remain

:47:04.:47:06.

We have seen that Plymouth, according to this research,

:47:07.:47:09.

is the most reliant city in Britain on exports to the EU.

:47:10.:47:12.

You are in an interesting and arguably difficult position.

:47:13.:47:14.

I voted for us to remain in, and I am happy to have done that,

:47:15.:47:17.

but actually the country, and Plymouth in particular,

:47:18.:47:19.

ended up voting substantially to come out here in Plymouth,

:47:20.:47:22.

And I am listening to the public, as to what they made the decision

:47:23.:47:26.

about, but this is going to be a really interesting debate which

:47:27.:47:29.

She published earlier this week the 12 points in her white paper,

:47:30.:47:34.

and it's going to be about making sure that we get the best deal

:47:35.:47:37.

for Britain and that we end up making sure we can do that

:47:38.:47:40.

Everybody would be delighted if that best deal is achieved,

:47:41.:47:51.

and it replicates a lot of these things that business

:47:52.:47:53.

She has made it clear, though, that she could basically walk away

:47:54.:48:01.

That is the point presumably where your business constituents

:48:02.:48:09.

might start leaning on you and saying,

:48:10.:48:11.

I hope that my business constituents will come and talk to me anyway

:48:12.:48:15.

before this happens so I can make sure it is put to the Prime Minister

:48:16.:48:19.

But this is a business negotiation, it's a bit like playing poker,

:48:20.:48:24.

you have to make sure you do not sell your whole line too hard

:48:25.:48:29.

at the very beginning to make sure people are aware...

:48:30.:48:33.

That is a good point, though some people,

:48:34.:48:37.

we should acknowledge, think falling back on WTO

:48:38.:48:39.

rules would be great, but nonetheless even if you don't,

:48:40.:48:43.

isn't she right to play poker, as Oliver says?

:48:44.:48:47.

This is going to be an incredibly complex set of negotiations.

:48:48.:49:00.

My view is that it was said through Plessey, Mary made the very

:49:01.:49:03.

good point that where we have had difficulties in exports,

:49:04.:49:06.

with the BSE scandal, it was the EU institutions that

:49:07.:49:14.

ensured European countries did not unnecessarily stop our beef.

:49:15.:49:17.

But that has gone, we have to accept that is gone,

:49:18.:49:19.

they are not going to be doing these negotiations for us.

:49:20.:49:22.

But again the point being it was the EU that

:49:23.:49:24.

supported our farmers and managed to get the Americans

:49:25.:49:26.

There is not a settled view what Brexit looks like.

:49:27.:49:33.

There is a Theresa May view of what Brexit looks like,

:49:34.:49:35.

but the consequences of a Theresa May view

:49:36.:49:37.

of what Brexit looks like is jobs going in our region.

:49:38.:49:43.

It is also about environmental protections, employment rights,

:49:44.:49:45.

If you had been in the Commons, you would have joined

:49:46.:49:55.

MPs like Ben Bradshaw, voting against the

:49:56.:49:56.

I think it is very likely I would have done, yes.

:49:57.:50:03.

Oliver, in your case, would you like some of your

:50:04.:50:06.

colleagues to say yes, we are voting to get the process

:50:07.:50:08.

moving, but we will have red lines and we will not give the government

:50:09.:50:12.

a blank cheque for any kind of Brexit?

:50:13.:50:14.

I think there will be a number of views which are being portrayed

:50:15.:50:17.

by a number of people around the country in which they want

:50:18.:50:20.

to end up by making sure that we get the best deal as far as Britain

:50:21.:50:23.

is concerned, and that is absolutely vital.

:50:24.:50:25.

But that is not going to be helped in the way that Theresa May

:50:26.:50:28.

OK we're moving on to a closely related topic.

:50:29.:50:32.

You reap what you sow, as they say, and some farmers who voted to leave

:50:33.:50:35.

the EU are now concerned what might happen once the money they receive

:50:36.:50:38.

Johnny has been talking to farmers from across the generations

:50:39.:50:44.

about what kind of harvest Brexit might bring.

:50:45.:51:00.

A world of opportunity awaits British farming.

:51:01.:51:01.

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

:51:02.:51:07.

The future sounds bright, but these young farmers

:51:08.:51:09.

say it is their future, and Andrea Leadsome

:51:10.:51:11.

Fresh from appearing on Gareth Malone's BBC TV series

:51:12.:51:21.

TV series The Choir, the young farmers

:51:22.:51:25.

if the government is actually in tune with farming in the South West.

:51:26.:51:32.

The government said it is going to give a lot

:51:33.:51:36.

of continued support to farmers, etc, but they have not

:51:37.:51:38.

In this area, we have relied a lot on government grants that have

:51:39.:51:43.

come through the EU, and I don't see that the government

:51:44.:51:45.

alone will follow it through and give it to us.

:51:46.:51:48.

Personally I think the future is as bright as it has ever been,

:51:49.:51:57.

in this country alone there is an extraordinary amount

:51:58.:51:59.

of youngsters future farmers, who have got the drive and passion

:52:00.:52:01.

to keep such a thing going, and they are not just going to walk

:52:02.:52:05.

away from it goes the farming industry has had

:52:06.:52:07.

back as I can remember, and it has not killed us yet

:52:08.:52:16.

and I don't think it will kill us any time soon.

:52:17.:52:21.

South Hams sheep farmer Andrew voted out, but what is that what replaces

:52:22.:52:25.

I fear for the future of the small farmer.

:52:26.:52:28.

They have enough odds stacked against them

:52:29.:52:43.

They have enough odds stacked against them as it is without having

:52:44.:52:46.

to deal with an unfair subsidy system which supports

:52:47.:52:48.

It is just income support in reverse gear.

:52:49.:52:55.

I have got this chart courtesy of Greenpeace,

:52:56.:52:57.

when you look at it you can see how the farm subsidies are

:52:58.:53:00.

And you can see far too much is ending up in the hands of these

:53:01.:53:05.

In contrast, the smaller farmers just get the leftover crumbs

:53:06.:53:08.

Unless the Conservative Party can be prised off farm

:53:09.:53:13.

subsidy purse strings, nothing can change.

:53:14.:53:22.

We must get a more fair impartial committee to decide

:53:23.:53:24.

At 90, Pippa Woods has seen a lot of change in farming.

:53:25.:53:32.

She has run her Devon farm since 1954.

:53:33.:53:35.

Voting to remain in the EU, she now fears for the future

:53:36.:53:38.

I can't imagine how it's going to work out,

:53:39.:53:43.

Sometimes I feel I haven't got to worry about what's

:53:44.:53:55.

Mary, do you accept this view is from other farmers

:53:56.:54:00.

in the south-west that the present system seems to award dukes and rich

:54:01.:54:03.

landowners and underfund small farmers in places

:54:04.:54:04.

like the south-west, who struggle to make a living?

:54:05.:54:07.

Certainly it's true that the larger the farm,

:54:08.:54:16.

because it is on an acreage basis, the larger you are as a farmer,

:54:17.:54:19.

the more you get the subsidy because it is on that basis.

:54:20.:54:22.

And it is also true that, Michael Winter has just

:54:23.:54:24.

done a wonderful report, Professor of the University

:54:25.:54:31.

of Exeter for the Princes Trust, which shows exactly those numbers,

:54:32.:54:33.

but also shows how small farms of all sizes can be

:54:34.:54:36.

And that depends on how innovative, how productive, efficient.

:54:37.:54:47.

You may be modestly saying do as I have done?

:54:48.:54:50.

Not at all because I am well aware of what I don't do correctly,

:54:51.:54:54.

but there are some really remarkable farmers, small and large, around

:54:55.:54:59.

around the region, around Devon and Cornwall, many of whom do things

:55:00.:55:02.

like diversification, wonderful food, all of that stuff.

:55:03.:55:05.

And we probably need to do more of that, and it's also true that

:55:06.:55:19.

part of farming will be on those commodities, where it will be

:55:20.:55:22.

just about efficiencies, and for those farms the subsidies

:55:23.:55:24.

OK, this is obviously got to be one of the biggest

:55:25.:55:28.

What should the government be putting in place to replace this?

:55:29.:55:35.

Again, farming is a good example of where all different moving pieces

:55:36.:55:38.

in our relationship with the EU intersect because you've got

:55:39.:55:41.

the subsidy relationship, the whole common agriculture policy

:55:42.:55:43.

which farmers have geared up and around, and now they know

:55:44.:55:46.

that there is two years of this programme left, they don't

:55:47.:55:53.

know how much longer it would last after that.

:55:54.:55:59.

Some would say it is a golden opportunity to reform it and change

:56:00.:56:02.

Well, it might be, but what have farmers got to gear to?

:56:03.:56:13.

You have to plan in farming, there is no indication

:56:14.:56:16.

I saw this idea that there may be some kind of 20

:56:17.:56:34.

UK-based government policies don't survive ministers,

:56:35.:56:38.

The idea that there would be a stable and predictable

:56:39.:56:42.

as the seven-year agricultural plan that comes with the EU,

:56:43.:56:44.

and then you've got the export markets and workforce

:56:45.:56:46.

There are all of these different things.

:56:47.:56:49.

Oliver, you would not accept a vote of confidence from a Labour MEP,

:56:50.:57:01.

but this is going to be a huge challenge.

:57:02.:57:03.

It's going to be a massive challenge, and the government have

:57:04.:57:06.

said they are going to make sure that they look after

:57:07.:57:08.

the subsidies up until 2020, then we will see what's happening.

:57:09.:57:11.

We've got to try and look after the smaller farmer

:57:12.:57:21.

But what's also got to happen is we've got to try and predict

:57:22.:57:28.

as to what the food they are producing and to where

:57:29.:57:31.

there is going to be a surplus of it, we need to cut back,

:57:32.:57:34.

I would argue, on the subsidy as far as those are concerned, so we can

:57:35.:57:38.

make sure that we are producing food which is going to reflect

:57:39.:57:41.

On the general picture, there are lots of strands to this.

:57:42.:57:44.

But if, for the sake of argument, they lose access to migrant workers,

:57:45.:57:48.

they lose access to the single market and subsidies, it is

:57:49.:57:51.

The issue certainly is that if we see that immigration

:57:52.:57:55.

is the big issue which came out of it, I think many people feel

:57:56.:57:58.

that, and I get that feeling here in Plymouth.

:57:59.:58:01.

If that is the issue then it makes it very difficult for us to remain

:58:02.:58:04.

That's not going to happen, we've been told.

:58:05.:58:17.

And the second issue is if we want to end up by having

:58:18.:58:20.

trade deals with other countries, we're going to have to end up making

:58:21.:58:24.

sure that we do that, I'm afraid outside the European

:58:25.:58:26.

customs union, and that's going to be a very big issue.

:58:27.:58:29.

That's a huge issue in terms of if we do a trade deal

:58:30.:58:32.

with New Zealand, what's happened to our lambs?

:58:33.:58:34.

It is time for our political round-up of the week

:58:35.:58:40.

Anger at potential health service cuts in North Devon

:58:41.:58:42.

Will my right honourable friend assure me she will listen

:58:43.:58:47.

carefully to those concerns, because I want to be able

:58:48.:58:50.

to say to North Devon that we are the party of the NHS.

:58:51.:58:55.

Controversy over Cornwall's blue sky plan to force people to move out

:58:56.:58:58.

The whole point of the town centre is it's for the people,

:58:59.:59:06.

so I think they are putting vehicles before people.

:59:07.:59:16.

The Isles of Scilly Council is warned to get on top of its finances

:59:17.:59:19.

and told to borrow ?3 million to pay staff and suppliers.

:59:20.:59:27.

Meanwhile Dorset councils are voting themselves out of existence,

:59:28.:59:29.

by creating two new unitary authorities in the county.

:59:30.:59:32.

And the rules banning dogs from Cornish beaches

:59:33.:59:34.

We've got to strike a happy medium somewhere, and I think what has been

:59:35.:59:38.

suggested today is probably the right way forward.

:59:39.:59:43.

Oliver, this issue with air pollution seems interesting

:59:44.:59:52.

because the Cornish towns are many of the ones that

:59:53.:59:54.

have been identified, they seem to be saying that you get

:59:55.:59:56.

a problem with the pollution being tunnelled through the main

:59:57.:59:59.

This is the historic heart of the town, you move people out

:00:00.:00:07.

Historically, that was an issue which has actually

:00:08.:00:10.

It is one of the worst places for pollution as well.

:00:11.:00:15.

And I am very interested to what the government

:00:16.:00:17.

is going to do about all this because we had a question session

:00:18.:00:20.

in the House of Commons in the last three or four months,

:00:21.:00:23.

and I think that is something which we've got to do.

:00:24.:00:25.

I went and spent a bit of time with my local GPs and I was very

:00:26.:00:31.

taken by the number of people living in Devonport and areas

:00:32.:00:33.

like that who have really big problems with their lungs,

:00:34.:00:36.

and this is all about how we can make sure that we have less

:00:37.:00:39.

pollution in our country, which is the reason why I've always

:00:40.:00:42.

been very supportive of the issues to do with climate change.

:00:43.:00:44.

This is something you've been looking at in the European

:00:45.:00:47.

A lot of our air quality legislation is cross European

:00:48.:00:52.

because our air crosses Europe, it doesn't stop at the French

:00:53.:00:54.

Yes, it is something that is a deep concern.

:00:55.:01:03.

Something like 50,000 people a year may suffer huge health impacts

:01:04.:01:06.

It is a national government responsibility.

:01:07.:01:12.

Local governments cannot solve air pollution,

:01:13.:01:13.

national government has to put in place the support.

:01:14.:01:17.

That's the reason why I set up for Plymouth City Council to go

:01:18.:01:20.

That is it once again for Sunday Politics in the south-west.

:01:21.:01:31.

programme at another time an airport expansion, but thank you to both of

:01:32.:01:34.

you for being here. Back to you, Andrew.

:01:35.:01:40.

Will the Government's plan to boost house-building

:01:41.:01:43.

Could a handful of Conservative MPs cause problems for

:01:44.:01:46.

And what is President Trump going to do next?

:01:47.:01:51.

You have been following the genesis of this housing white paper. What do

:01:52.:02:09.

you make of it? I think it will be quite spectacular, pretty radical

:02:10.:02:14.

stuff. We heard bits about beating up on developers. I understand it

:02:15.:02:18.

will be a whack, walk, covering every single problem with housing

:02:19.:02:23.

supply and trying to solve it. Which means bad news if you are a huge fan

:02:24.:02:27.

of the green belt, because they will go round that the other way by

:02:28.:02:30.

forcing large quotas on councils are making it down to councils where

:02:31.:02:35.

they build. If you fill up your brown space in towns they will have

:02:36.:02:38.

to trigger the exceptional circumstances bit of the bill to

:02:39.:02:42.

beat on green belts. Beating up developers, opening up the market

:02:43.:02:46.

for renters across the board. And Theresa May, one of the most

:02:47.:02:52.

defining thing she could do on the domestic agenda. I am not as excited

:02:53.:02:57.

as Tom about this. I look back to 2004, do you remember the Kate

:02:58.:03:04.

Barker report? Successive governments, successive prime

:03:05.:03:08.

ministers have been promising to address the housing shortage. In

:03:09.:03:13.

2004 Kate Barker recommended hundreds of thousands new homes.

:03:14.:03:17.

Gordon Brown talked about 3 million new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never

:03:18.:03:22.

happens. The reason is at the end of the day this is local politics,

:03:23.:03:26.

local councillors need to keep their seats and they won't keep their

:03:27.:03:29.

seats if there are hugely controversial developments locally

:03:30.:03:33.

that they support. Yes, the government can and are proposing to

:03:34.:03:37.

overrule councils that don't back local developments, but they may

:03:38.:03:41.

find themselves completely inundated with those cases. I think that is

:03:42.:03:46.

the whole point of it, to take on those NIMBY often Tory councils and

:03:47.:03:50.

force them to build. I can't think of a better defining issue for

:03:51.:03:58.

Theresa May than sticking one in the eye of some quite well off half Tory

:03:59.:04:05.

countryside councils. The government gives councils a quota of homes they

:04:06.:04:09.

have to fill, if they don't have to fill that all run out overland to

:04:10.:04:12.

fill the quota, the government then comes in and tells them they have to

:04:13.:04:17.

built on the green belt? How is that going to work? At the moment the

:04:18.:04:21.

green belt is absolutely sacrosanct in British politics. They'll have to

:04:22.:04:24.

do some work on educating people on what green belts means. Potato

:04:25.:04:30.

farms, golf courses... At the moment the idea people have of the green

:04:31.:04:36.

belt being verdant fields needs to be dismantled. You are right. I

:04:37.:04:41.

agree with Tom, 11 million people in the private rental sector in the UK.

:04:42.:04:45.

In the last election more voted Labour than conservative. This is an

:04:46.:04:49.

area where Theresa May would look to expand her vote. The problem has

:04:50.:04:53.

always been, the same problem we have with pension policy and why

:04:54.:04:57.

pensioners have done better than working families in recent years.

:04:58.:05:00.

They are older and they vote more and anything to the detriment of

:05:01.:05:08.

older people. I wonder how they will get private money to come in on

:05:09.:05:13.

anything like this go they would need to have a huge expansion? There

:05:14.:05:18.

is a huge amount of speculation and one of the thing that locks up the

:05:19.:05:22.

system as you have people buying land, taking out a stake of land in

:05:23.:05:26.

the hope that one point it may at some point free up. At the end of

:05:27.:05:30.

the day, unless you have councils far more willing to quickly fast

:05:31.:05:34.

track these applications, which they won't for the reason I said before,

:05:35.:05:37.

it's a very long-term investment. Ed Miliband proposed three-year leases

:05:38.:05:45.

in which the rent could only go up by an agreed formula, probably the

:05:46.:05:50.

three years to give the young families a certain stability over

:05:51.:05:54.

that period. He had a use it or lose it rules for planning development,

:05:55.:05:58.

if you don't use it you lose the planning rights. Somebody else gets

:05:59.:06:03.

it. The Tories disparaged that at the time. This is at the centre of

:06:04.:06:07.

their policy now. This is probably item number four of

:06:08.:06:12.

Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa May has wholesale pinched in the

:06:13.:06:15.

last six months or so. Why not? I think if you look at the change in

:06:16.:06:20.

mood across housing and planning over the last 5-6 years, it used to

:06:21.:06:26.

be an issue very much of green belt versus London planners. Now you have

:06:27.:06:30.

grandparents living in houses in the countryside, knowing their

:06:31.:06:31.

grandchildren can't get on the housing ladder any longer. Maybe a

:06:32.:06:38.

bit more intervention in the market, tougher on renting conditions, maybe

:06:39.:06:41.

that is exactly what the country needs. Will they meet the 1 million

:06:42.:06:47.

target? It would be a defiance of every political thing that has

:06:48.:06:49.

happened in the last ten years. I think Tom is right, if there is only

:06:50.:06:55.

one difference between Theresa May and David Cameron it's the

:06:56.:06:57.

willingness of the state to intervene. When Ed Miliband said

:06:58.:07:04.

that he was seen as communism, but Theresa May can get away with it.

:07:05.:07:08.

How serious is this talk of a couple of dozen Tories who were very loyal

:07:09.:07:15.

over voting for the principle of Article 50 but may now be tempted to

:07:16.:07:21.

vote for some amendments to Article 50 legislation that they would find

:07:22.:07:26.

quite attractive? I think that threat has certainly been taken

:07:27.:07:30.

seriously by levers. I spoke to the campaign group Leaves Means Leave

:07:31.:07:35.

last night. The figure they mentioned was up to 20 remaining

:07:36.:07:39.

Tories. That sounds a lot to me but that is what they are concerned

:07:40.:07:41.

about and those Tories would come together with Labour and the SNP to

:07:42.:07:47.

vote for that amendment. Although that amendment sounds rather nice

:07:48.:07:51.

and democratic, actually in the eyes of many levers that is a wrecking

:07:52.:07:55.

amendment. Because what you are doing is giving Parliament a sort of

:07:56.:08:00.

veto over whatever deal Theresa May brings back. What they want is the

:08:01.:08:04.

vote to be before that deal is finalised. It isn't necessarily the

:08:05.:08:08.

case that if Parliament decided they didn't like that deal we would just

:08:09.:08:14.

go to WTO, we would fall out of the European Union. There are mixed

:08:15.:08:17.

views as to whether we might remain in and things could be extended. My

:08:18.:08:22.

understanding is the people making the amendments, they won any deal

:08:23.:08:28.

that is done to be brought to Parliament in time, so that if

:08:29.:08:33.

Parliament fancies it it's done, but if it does and it doesn't just mean

:08:34.:08:38.

go to WTO rules. There will be time to go back, renegotiate or think

:08:39.:08:43.

again? The question is where it puts Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of

:08:44.:08:48.

the options... Once we trigger Article 50 the two negotiation

:08:49.:08:54.

begins on the power switches to Europe. They can run out the clock

:08:55.:08:57.

and it will be worse for us than them. I don't think either option is

:08:58.:09:00.

particularly appealing. I think what seems like a rather Serena week for

:09:01.:09:05.

Article 50 this week isn't going to be reflective of what will happen

:09:06.:09:09.

next. The way the government's position is at the moment, if at the

:09:10.:09:12.

end the only choice Parliament has is to vote for the deal or crash out

:09:13.:09:17.

on WTO rules, then even the remainder is going to vote for the

:09:18.:09:20.

deal even if they don't like it, because they would regard crashing

:09:21.:09:24.

out as the worst of all possible results. Possibly. It will be a

:09:25.:09:31.

great game of bluff if Theresa May fights off any of these amendments

:09:32.:09:35.

on Wednesday and gets a straightforward deal or no Deal

:09:36.:09:38.

vote. I have a funny feeling this amendment, if it's chosen, we must

:09:39.:09:42.

remember because we don't know if they will choose this amendment, if

:09:43.:09:47.

it does go to a vote on Wednesday it will be very tight indeed. Remember,

:09:48.:09:51.

one final thing Theresa May can do if she gets Parliament voting

:09:52.:09:56.

against, as Isabel would have it, she could try to get a new

:09:57.:10:00.

parliament and go for a general election. And probably get a huge

:10:01.:10:06.

majority to do so. The Lords, it goes there after the February

:10:07.:10:13.

recess. They are very pro-Europe, but does their instinct for

:10:14.:10:21.

self-preservation override that? I think that is it. A Tory Lord said

:10:22.:10:26.

this morning I will vote to block it on a conscience measure, but you

:10:27.:10:30.

have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to

:10:31.:10:35.

the Lords reform saying is an outrage. I doubt they will vote for

:10:36.:10:39.

their own demise, to hasten their own demise by blocking it. What did

:10:40.:10:47.

you make of Doctor Gorka smart fascinating. Cut from the same cloth

:10:48.:10:50.

as his boss. I thought it was extraordinary listening to him,

:10:51.:10:53.

saying everything is going dutifully to plan. But at the end of the day,

:10:54.:10:57.

what they are doing is what people in America voted for Trump to do. If

:10:58.:11:01.

you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling on why America voted for Trump, they

:11:02.:11:06.

went into this with their eyes wide open. One of the top fears among

:11:07.:11:12.

American voters, particularly Republican leading ones was

:11:13.:11:15.

America's immigration policy is or could be letting in terror arrests.

:11:16.:11:18.

As far as he is concerned, he is doing what he was elected to do.

:11:19.:11:23.

This whole year is turning into a wonderful year long lecture series

:11:24.:11:26.

on how democracy works at a fundamental level. I'm not sure

:11:27.:11:29.

anyone wanted it but it's what we've got. This same in the way we've been

:11:30.:11:35.

talking about direct democracy and Parliamentary democracy. The same is

:11:36.:11:40.

happening in America between executive and judicial branches. We

:11:41.:11:43.

are seeing the limits of presidential power. Regardless of

:11:44.:11:47.

the fact that people voted for Trump they voted for senators. The judge

:11:48.:11:51.

who blocks this was appointed by George W Bush. So-called Judge

:11:52.:11:58.

Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush! It's fascinating we're having all

:11:59.:12:00.

these conversations now that I never bought five years ago we would be

:12:01.:12:05.

having at such a fundamental level. Has the media yet worked out how to

:12:06.:12:10.

cover the Trump administration or has he got us behaving like headless

:12:11.:12:14.

chickens? He says something incendiary and we all run over to do

:12:15.:12:19.

that and when you pick it off it turns out not to be as incendiary as

:12:20.:12:23.

we thought? And then back doing something and we all rush over

:12:24.:12:28.

there. Is he making fools of us? Is exactly what he did in the election

:12:29.:12:34.

campaign. So many quick and fast outrageous comments frontrunner on a

:12:35.:12:38.

daily basis, no one single one of them had full news cycle time to be

:12:39.:12:41.

pored over and examined. I think there is a problem with this.

:12:42.:12:44.

Although he keeps the upper hand, keeps the agenda and keeps on the

:12:45.:12:49.

populist ground, the problem is it easy to campaign like that. If you

:12:50.:12:54.

are governing in a state of semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the

:12:55.:12:57.

American public will be comfortable with that. They don't really want

:12:58.:12:59.

their government to be swirling chaos all the time, as fascinating

:13:00.:13:05.

as it might be on TV. They will be exhausted by it, I already am. I

:13:06.:13:11.

have been interviewing White House administration official since 1976

:13:12.:13:13.

and that is the first time someone hasn't given me a straight answer on

:13:14.:13:17.

America supporting the EU. That is a different world.

:13:18.:13:20.

Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with

:13:21.:13:23.

the Daily Politics - and I'll be back here

:13:24.:13:25.

Remember, if it's Sunday - it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:26.:14:04.

TV: He's not your father. WOMAN GASPS

:14:05.:14:17.

so why not pay your TV licence in weekly instalments, too?

:14:18.:14:31.

Andrew Neil and Lucie Fisher with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew is joined by housing minister Gavin Barwell MP who talks about the government's plan to increase housebuilding in England and protect people who rent their homes. Plus Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform and Henry Newman from Open Europe. Donald Trump adviser Sebastian Gorka discusses President Trump's first two weeks in the White House and Ellie Price reports on the negotiations to come with the EU over Brexit. On the political panel are The New Statesman's Helen Lewis and journalists Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.


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