14/05/2017 Sunday Politics South West


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14/05/2017

Andrew Neil and Lucie Fisher are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, housing minister Brandon Lewis and American political pollster Frank Luntz.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes

:00:41.:00:43.

in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -

:00:44.:00:46.

Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax

:00:47.:00:53.

to fund public services, but will traders just

:00:54.:00:55.

Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,

:00:56.:00:59.

insists he can win this election - so which way will

:01:00.:01:02.

We'll hear from a focus group in Leeds.

:01:03.:01:07.

Hello, I'm Lucie Fisher, coming up on the Sunday Politics

:01:08.:01:09.

The fishermen questioning the government's promise to take

:01:10.:01:13.

and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air

:01:14.:01:17.

pollution problem in London. And with me, our own scientifically

:01:18.:01:25.

selected focus group of political pundits -

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they're not so much undecided as clueless -

:01:30.:01:31.

Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott They'll be tweeting

:01:32.:01:33.

throughout the programme. So, we've got two new

:01:34.:01:40.

policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce

:01:41.:01:42.

a financial transaction tax if they win the general election

:01:43.:01:44.

and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax

:01:45.:01:47.

avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work

:01:48.:01:49.

with local authorities in England to build council houses

:01:50.:01:52.

with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy

:01:53.:01:54.

"will help thousands of people get on the first rung

:01:55.:01:56.

of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I

:01:57.:02:09.

have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in

:02:10.:02:13.

pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as

:02:14.:02:17.

literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the

:02:18.:02:22.

Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it

:02:23.:02:26.

framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a

:02:27.:02:30.

sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a

:02:31.:02:35.

narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an

:02:36.:02:38.

argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour

:02:39.:02:46.

government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said

:02:47.:02:48.

right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a

:02:49.:02:51.

housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit

:02:52.:02:55.

George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get

:02:56.:03:00.

house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it

:03:01.:03:04.

works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes

:03:05.:03:09.

sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa

:03:10.:03:17.

May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly

:03:18.:03:21.

these two announcements have something in common which is that

:03:22.:03:25.

over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.

:03:26.:03:31.

Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't

:03:32.:03:35.

agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like

:03:36.:03:41.

a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might

:03:42.:03:46.

become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is

:03:47.:03:50.

difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what

:03:51.:03:55.

looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase

:03:56.:04:01.

orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will

:04:02.:04:05.

change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market

:04:06.:04:08.

value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily

:04:09.:04:13.

with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both

:04:14.:04:20.

would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and

:04:21.:04:24.

traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then

:04:25.:04:31.

councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the

:04:32.:04:38.

city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the

:04:39.:04:42.

Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is

:04:43.:04:46.

talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now

:04:47.:04:50.

Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is

:04:51.:04:58.

the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most

:04:59.:05:02.

interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC

:05:03.:05:09.

correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't

:05:10.:05:12.

worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising

:05:13.:05:17.

it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the

:05:18.:05:24.

macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very

:05:25.:05:30.

well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.

:05:31.:05:32.

Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.

:05:33.:05:34.

But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -

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that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media

:05:38.:05:39.

Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra

:05:40.:05:48.

?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social

:05:49.:05:51.

care over the lifetime of the next parliament,

:05:52.:05:53.

as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over

:05:54.:05:55.

The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,

:05:56.:06:03.

although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious

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about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence

:06:05.:06:07.

and security review immediately after the election.

:06:08.:06:10.

In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable

:06:11.:06:12.

management of migration", but it will not make "false

:06:13.:06:15.

Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,

:06:16.:06:21.

and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises

:06:22.:06:23.

for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.

:06:24.:06:27.

The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail

:06:28.:06:30.

and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one

:06:31.:06:37.

A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics

:06:38.:06:42.

as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss

:06:43.:06:45.

about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates

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told us they thought it had been deliberately

:06:48.:06:49.

leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting

:06:50.:06:53.

the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"

:06:54.:06:55.

And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,

:06:56.:06:58.

Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise

:06:59.:07:07.

the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out

:07:08.:07:11.

rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the

:07:12.:07:16.

railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three

:07:17.:07:20.

Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to

:07:21.:07:26.

comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what

:07:27.:07:33.

is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will

:07:34.:07:37.

nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking

:07:38.:07:42.

the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail

:07:43.:07:46.

will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail

:07:47.:07:51.

until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound

:07:52.:07:55.

very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National

:07:56.:08:02.

Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to

:08:03.:08:07.

nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you

:08:08.:08:12.

will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the

:08:13.:08:18.

National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just

:08:19.:08:22.

have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is

:08:23.:08:27.

it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that

:08:28.:08:31.

costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I

:08:32.:08:37.

would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform

:08:38.:08:41.

the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority

:08:42.:08:45.

stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion

:08:46.:08:50.

in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for

:08:51.:08:56.

reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not

:08:57.:09:00.

going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the

:09:01.:09:03.

distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising

:09:04.:09:08.

the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on

:09:09.:09:13.

Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent

:09:14.:09:17.

years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in

:09:18.:09:24.

answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for

:09:25.:09:30.

nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the

:09:31.:09:33.

energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big

:09:34.:09:38.

six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to

:09:39.:09:43.

be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,

:09:44.:09:50.

you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with

:09:51.:09:54.

the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty

:09:55.:10:01.

to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The

:10:02.:10:07.

Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British

:10:08.:10:11.

taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a

:10:12.:10:15.

long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a

:10:16.:10:19.

key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in

:10:20.:10:25.

our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households

:10:26.:10:27.

ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal

:10:28.:10:32.

providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John

:10:33.:10:37.

McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top

:10:38.:10:41.

of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You

:10:42.:10:47.

will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years

:10:48.:10:54.

after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing

:10:55.:11:01.

75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of

:11:02.:11:07.

capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our

:11:08.:11:11.

financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a

:11:12.:11:15.

state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we

:11:16.:11:18.

won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.

:11:19.:11:25.

How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75

:11:26.:11:29.

billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500

:11:30.:11:36.

billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure

:11:37.:11:40.

that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a

:11:41.:11:43.

figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial

:11:44.:11:48.

competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the

:11:49.:11:56.

CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250

:11:57.:12:00.

billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the

:12:01.:12:05.

fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a

:12:06.:12:09.

proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have

:12:10.:12:16.

just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will

:12:17.:12:20.

ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the

:12:21.:12:24.

parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state

:12:25.:12:32.

than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will

:12:33.:12:36.

ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came

:12:37.:12:40.

to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft

:12:41.:12:48.

manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going

:12:49.:12:51.

to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps

:12:52.:12:57.

we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for

:12:58.:13:00.

corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your

:13:01.:13:04.

predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end

:13:05.:13:09.

of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their

:13:10.:13:14.

behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or

:13:15.:13:18.

they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to

:13:19.:13:24.

make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and

:13:25.:13:27.

costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.

:13:28.:13:33.

We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes

:13:34.:13:35.

in market activity because that would be approved and direction to

:13:36.:13:40.

take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United

:13:41.:13:48.

States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are

:13:49.:13:51.

already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,

:13:52.:13:56.

if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number

:13:57.:14:01.

of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in

:14:02.:14:07.

the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting

:14:08.:14:11.

corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business

:14:12.:14:15.

investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent

:14:16.:14:18.

years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in

:14:19.:14:25.

things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce

:14:26.:14:29.

the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the

:14:30.:14:34.

Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the

:14:35.:14:41.

proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can

:14:42.:14:44.

invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.

:14:45.:14:51.

Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in

:14:52.:15:01.

?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a

:15:02.:15:08.

year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so

:15:09.:15:14.

what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it

:15:15.:15:18.

increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about

:15:19.:15:24.

cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to

:15:25.:15:28.

thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are

:15:29.:15:34.

industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate

:15:35.:15:41.

businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if

:15:42.:15:46.

we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am

:15:47.:15:52.

not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business

:15:53.:16:00.

tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to

:16:01.:16:04.

thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on

:16:05.:16:16.

business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own

:16:17.:16:20.

labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not

:16:21.:16:25.

want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding

:16:26.:16:31.

with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing

:16:32.:16:34.

global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.

:16:35.:16:38.

Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't

:16:39.:16:44.

cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought

:16:45.:16:49.

in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has

:16:50.:16:53.

changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that

:16:54.:16:58.

change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a

:16:59.:17:03.

lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We

:17:04.:17:07.

need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the

:17:08.:17:14.

computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other

:17:15.:17:19.

countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what

:17:20.:17:22.

other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at

:17:23.:17:30.

introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will

:17:31.:17:37.

be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at

:17:38.:17:42.

the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in

:17:43.:17:46.

2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are

:17:47.:17:51.

going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which

:17:52.:17:56.

generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a

:17:57.:18:00.

significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied

:18:01.:18:11.

at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the

:18:12.:18:16.

instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.

:18:17.:18:21.

This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in

:18:22.:18:24.

terms of financial services because there is more to keep these

:18:25.:18:29.

businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the

:18:30.:18:33.

economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we

:18:34.:18:37.

will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.

:18:38.:18:42.

And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.

:18:43.:18:47.

Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower

:18:48.:18:53.

than international standards, so why are so many global companies who

:18:54.:19:00.

make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of

:19:01.:19:05.

the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not

:19:06.:19:08.

answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the

:19:09.:19:14.

important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it

:19:15.:19:18.

encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may

:19:19.:19:23.

say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.

:19:24.:19:29.

But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and

:19:30.:19:38.

did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading

:19:39.:19:42.

internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our

:19:43.:19:50.

partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than

:19:51.:19:54.

they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,

:19:55.:19:58.

alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the

:19:59.:20:04.

people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the

:20:05.:20:08.

corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and

:20:09.:20:13.

more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a

:20:14.:20:17.

number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been

:20:18.:20:24.

able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the

:20:25.:20:26.

changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British

:20:27.:20:34.

companies, not from these international companies. It is

:20:35.:20:37.

because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good

:20:38.:20:42.

thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack

:20:43.:20:47.

down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused

:20:48.:20:51.

to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by

:20:52.:20:57.

cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking

:20:58.:21:02.

down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap

:21:03.:21:07.

is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.

:21:08.:21:13.

It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have

:21:14.:21:19.

brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax

:21:20.:21:23.

schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone

:21:24.:21:33.

from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the

:21:34.:21:35.

Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money

:21:36.:21:40.

on these companies while still having a competitive rate to

:21:41.:21:46.

encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to

:21:47.:21:51.

prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on

:21:52.:21:54.

average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms

:21:55.:22:00.

by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it

:22:01.:22:06.

that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,

:22:07.:22:10.

Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual

:22:11.:22:16.

income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,

:22:17.:22:25.

people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep

:22:26.:22:27.

emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years

:22:28.:22:31.

and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.

:22:32.:22:38.

Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.

:22:39.:22:44.

There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.

:22:45.:22:50.

1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their

:22:51.:22:53.

careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,

:22:54.:22:57.

investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,

:22:58.:23:02.

companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities

:23:03.:23:07.

that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about

:23:08.:23:10.

hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than

:23:11.:23:15.

they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives

:23:16.:23:20.

have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has

:23:21.:23:23.

shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of

:23:24.:23:29.

?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions

:23:30.:23:35.

kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one

:23:36.:23:40.

law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of

:23:41.:23:45.

all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare

:23:46.:23:50.

and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people

:23:51.:23:56.

in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that

:23:57.:24:03.

allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket

:24:04.:24:08.

to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,

:24:09.:24:14.

among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as

:24:15.:24:20.

we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen

:24:21.:24:26.

millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these

:24:27.:24:30.

questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just

:24:31.:24:35.

about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and

:24:36.:24:39.

below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We

:24:40.:24:43.

have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone

:24:44.:24:48.

up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages

:24:49.:24:55.

will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for

:24:56.:24:59.

housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,

:25:00.:25:04.

social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the

:25:05.:25:08.

associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4

:25:09.:25:12.

billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you

:25:13.:25:20.

get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local

:25:21.:25:23.

authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.

:25:24.:25:30.

I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at

:25:31.:25:34.

100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at

:25:35.:25:40.

you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the

:25:41.:25:45.

local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is

:25:46.:25:49.

what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the

:25:50.:25:53.

money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the

:25:54.:25:56.

expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the

:25:57.:26:02.

housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how

:26:03.:26:08.

many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on

:26:09.:26:13.

it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what

:26:14.:26:18.

the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities

:26:19.:26:22.

who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.

:26:23.:26:26.

What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,

:26:27.:26:30.

they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,

:26:31.:26:33.

the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with

:26:34.:26:39.

them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I

:26:40.:26:42.

want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what

:26:43.:26:48.

the target and timescale is, and this government, under which

:26:49.:26:51.

affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million

:26:52.:26:57.

families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your

:26:58.:27:03.

record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what

:27:04.:27:07.

we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a

:27:08.:27:12.

strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This

:27:13.:27:19.

is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,

:27:20.:27:25.

75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.

:27:26.:27:30.

That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the

:27:31.:27:34.

industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in

:27:35.:27:45.

2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000

:27:46.:27:50.

affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.

:27:51.:27:58.

So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have

:27:59.:28:06.

delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour

:28:07.:28:11.

did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,

:28:12.:28:15.

working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in

:28:16.:28:16.

their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit

:28:17.:28:20.

of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those

:28:21.:28:23.

around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got

:28:24.:28:26.

three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those

:28:27.:28:29.

fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation

:28:30.:28:31.

YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders

:28:32.:28:36.

will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters

:28:37.:28:38.

of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home

:28:39.:28:48.

to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited

:28:49.:28:52.

from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't

:28:53.:28:55.

decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,

:28:56.:28:59.

two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up

:29:00.:29:01.

political press at Downing Street under David Cameron

:29:02.:29:08.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron

:29:09.:29:15.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself

:29:16.:29:17.

as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it

:29:18.:29:21.

came about who you want,

:29:22.:29:41.

if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus

:29:42.:29:45.

groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,

:29:46.:29:49.

even though some of those same people have been saying we quite

:29:50.:29:51.

like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's

:29:52.:29:53.

going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive

:29:54.:29:58.

manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,

:29:59.:30:00.

that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that

:30:01.:30:04.

you don't recognise? After a little warm up,

:30:05.:30:06.

the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong

:30:07.:30:08.

woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,

:30:09.:30:15.

when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,

:30:16.:30:17.

here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what

:30:18.:30:20.

are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,

:30:21.:30:23.

it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's

:30:24.:30:27.

actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership

:30:28.:30:36.

in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's

:30:37.:30:48.

the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one

:30:49.:30:53.

for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad

:30:54.:31:03.

as strong and stable, but it will probably get

:31:04.:31:05.

on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today

:31:06.:31:08.

and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my

:31:09.:31:18.

question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,

:31:19.:31:26.

we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table

:31:27.:31:29.

at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,

:31:30.:31:32.

we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control

:31:33.:31:35.

and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought

:31:36.:31:36.

he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,

:31:37.:31:41.

hovering around, skirting around and that's the second

:31:42.:31:50.

time I've seen a similar interview with the question

:31:51.:31:53.

being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have

:31:54.:31:55.

any confidence with him You think you are going up

:31:56.:31:57.

against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand

:31:58.:32:01.

up for us? When you are in negotiations,

:32:02.:32:03.

you need to be tough. And actually is right

:32:04.:32:08.

to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing

:32:09.:32:10.

something for the country. There's a reason for talking

:32:11.:32:12.

about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future

:32:13.:32:14.

of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen

:32:15.:32:16.

to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show

:32:17.:32:21.

and in the news. She attracts the public better

:32:22.:32:26.

than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question

:32:27.:32:32.

in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa

:32:33.:32:35.

May is an animal. So, in your minds,

:32:36.:32:41.

what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think

:32:42.:32:44.

she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's

:32:45.:32:59.

superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies

:33:00.:33:05.

are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak

:33:06.:33:20.

and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch

:33:21.:33:24.

you by surprise if you're What do you take away

:33:25.:33:26.

from what you saw then, and what message would you send back

:33:27.:33:34.

to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see

:33:35.:33:37.

Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,

:33:38.:33:40.

but you don't need to be liked to be elected,

:33:41.:33:43.

because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future

:33:44.:33:45.

and your security. I think what I also take out

:33:46.:33:47.

of that focus group, was it was a group of floating

:33:48.:33:50.

voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no

:33:51.:33:53.

huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ

:33:54.:33:56.

would be stick to the plan. I thought the response

:33:57.:33:58.

to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't

:33:59.:34:02.

particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her

:34:03.:34:04.

about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party

:34:05.:34:09.

want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks

:34:10.:34:13.

that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:14.:34:15.

what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise

:34:16.:34:21.

the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform

:34:22.:34:23.

out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those

:34:24.:34:29.

characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be

:34:30.:34:32.

over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact

:34:33.:34:34.

that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go

:34:35.:34:37.

into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American

:34:38.:34:40.

political consultant For the sake of this discussion,

:34:41.:34:47.

assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for

:34:48.:34:54.

Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious

:34:55.:35:00.

collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether

:35:01.:35:03.

you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where

:35:04.:35:08.

they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to

:35:09.:35:12.

watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more

:35:13.:35:17.

substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality

:35:18.:35:21.

and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because

:35:22.:35:26.

Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see

:35:27.:35:36.

on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language

:35:37.:35:43.

she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't

:35:44.:35:47.

see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her

:35:48.:35:52.

campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy

:35:53.:35:57.

because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary

:35:58.:36:02.

Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,

:36:03.:36:07.

the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I

:36:08.:36:13.

was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC

:36:14.:36:21.

had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can

:36:22.:36:25.

assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had

:36:26.:36:31.

but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other

:36:32.:36:38.

than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you

:36:39.:36:43.

will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour

:36:44.:36:48.

will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of

:36:49.:36:52.

number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of

:36:53.:36:56.

soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable

:36:57.:37:01.

majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British

:37:02.:37:04.

people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will

:37:05.:37:10.

have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice

:37:11.:37:15.

of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British

:37:16.:37:20.

politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there

:37:21.:37:24.

is still a significant percentage of the British population that once

:37:25.:37:28.

someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.

:37:29.:37:37.

I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and

:37:38.:37:40.

I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a

:37:41.:37:43.

population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.

:37:44.:37:49.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:50.:37:51.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:52.:37:54.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:37:55.:38:04.

Hello, I'm Lucie Fisher, coming up on the Sunday Politics

:38:05.:38:07.

The fishermen questioning the government's promise to take

:38:08.:38:12.

And for the next twenty minutes, I'm joined by the Conservative

:38:13.:38:26.

parliamentary candidate for Plymouth Moor View Jonny Mercer

:38:27.:38:27.

and the Labour candidate for South East Cornwall Gareth Derrick -

:38:28.:38:32.

Theresa May has indicated she will allow

:38:33.:38:35.

Conservative MPs a free vote on whether to bring

:38:36.:38:37.

The use of hunting with dogs has been banned since 2004

:38:38.:38:43.

when Tony Blair's government voted for an end to the sport.

:38:44.:38:45.

Mrs May was asked her views on the subject at a question

:38:46.:38:48.

and answer session in Leeds earlier this week.

:38:49.:38:57.

This is the situation on which individuals have one view pro or

:38:58.:39:06.

against. As it happens, I have always been in favour of fox

:39:07.:39:13.

hunting. We maintain our commitment, hunting. We maintain our commitment,

:39:14.:39:18.

we have had a commitment to allow a free vote at the Conservative Party.

:39:19.:39:21.

That is what we would allow Parliament the opportunity to take

:39:22.:39:25.

the decision on this. Do you think Mrs May is genuine, prepare to say

:39:26.:39:29.

what she thinks even if it is unpopular. It is an absurd thing to

:39:30.:39:34.

be raising this time. Far more important things we should be

:39:35.:39:37.

talking about in this election. If it came back to Parliament, forced

:39:38.:39:41.

majority, it would be insult to the majority, it would be insult to the

:39:42.:39:44.

British people who have made it quite clear we don't have any

:39:45.:39:47.

interest going back to that part of fox hunting. The callous and cruel

:39:48.:39:50.

killing of animals by wild dogs. Going further than that, if we did

:39:51.:39:55.

bring it back into law, how embarrassing would that be on the

:39:56.:39:58.

international scene? An embarrassment for Britain to take

:39:59.:40:02.

that backward step. Reading is well and truly a box of faded, colonial

:40:03.:40:10.

power. Is it absurd? Quite stringent, Mrs May? I was not

:40:11.:40:16.

expecting it. Not an issue that has come up on the doors too much in

:40:17.:40:21.

Plymouth, we have not seen the hunt going down Tavistock Road for some

:40:22.:40:28.

time. Is it toxic for the party? I don't think it is toxic the

:40:29.:40:31.

perception around hunting is different from the reality. If you

:40:32.:40:35.

push up into Dartmoor, there are country communities focused around

:40:36.:40:39.

country sports. They say eight in ten members of the public against

:40:40.:40:43.

the? Could be up highly unpopular move? It could go to a free vote,

:40:44.:40:48.

let's see what happened. Country sports can be enjoyed without

:40:49.:40:52.

killing. The enjoyment part of sport is going about the killing of the

:40:53.:40:58.

animals. How will you vote? I do a thing called direct democracy, which

:40:59.:41:04.

I did since 2015. It has many flaws, but I will be doing it. You ask

:41:05.:41:10.

members of the public? I will ask people in Plymouth as to which way I

:41:11.:41:14.

will vote. What would you vote in the poll? In this direct democracy

:41:15.:41:20.

I'll be representing people in Plymouth. Both of you service

:41:21.:41:26.

personnel. Very lucky, former service personnel. Joined by you in

:41:27.:41:34.

a week where military was top of the agenda.

:41:35.:41:37.

First there was the Conservative promise to spend a bit

:41:38.:41:39.

more money on defence, then Labour's Jeremy Corbyn said

:41:40.:41:41.

And all this watched closely in Plymouth where past elections

:41:42.:41:44.

have been a very tight fight between the two parties.

:41:45.:41:47.

It is the biggest naval base in western Europe. Covering 650 acres.

:41:48.:41:58.

Devonport is usually important to the local economy in Plymouth,

:41:59.:42:03.

employing 2500 people and hundreds of local firms. In the run-up to a

:42:04.:42:08.

general election, when political parties start talking about defence

:42:09.:42:12.

spending, people here tend to listen. The best defence for Britain

:42:13.:42:19.

is a government actively engaged in seeking political solutions to the

:42:20.:42:24.

world's problems. In a week in which Labour's manifesto was leaked to the

:42:25.:42:29.

press, Jeremy Corbyn was forced to clarify the party's position on

:42:30.:42:35.

defence. I accept military action under international law is a

:42:36.:42:38.

circumstances is necessary. His circumstances is necessary. His

:42:39.:42:42.

message was not well received on the high street in Devonport. With

:42:43.:42:46.

Corbett not wanting a nuclear deterrent, every country, we need

:42:47.:42:52.

it, all these tinpot countries, like North Korea, you have to watch those

:42:53.:43:00.

countries. It has not been all plain sailing for the Conservatives. In

:43:01.:43:05.

2015, rumours and the press, that Plymouth -based HMS Ocean, fresh

:43:06.:43:14.

after refit was to be decommissioned. Rubbished by the Dem

:43:15.:43:18.

candidate Johnny Mercer. Concerned by the governorship would go out of

:43:19.:43:25.

service in 2018. The city's Royal commander Citadel base will close in

:43:26.:43:29.

the next ten years. The first time I've done myself. Inside this newly

:43:30.:43:35.

opened pasty shop, uncertainty about which way they will vote. Everybody

:43:36.:43:39.

promises this and that. Generally getting in, we will forget about

:43:40.:43:44.

that from now. We will bring this in. I honestly don't know. We're

:43:45.:43:51.

quite well-known for our services. That is why we get left alone. This

:43:52.:43:55.

week in a letter to the Prime Minister a group of former military

:43:56.:44:00.

top brass criticised the current level of defence spending. Currently

:44:01.:44:05.

two percent of GDP. This we are going to spend two percent is

:44:06.:44:09.

needs is about 3%, the money spent needs is about 3%, the money spent

:44:10.:44:14.

on front line military capabilities, and for the pensions. All the other

:44:15.:44:18.

things that do not deliver front line key abilities to be taken out

:44:19.:44:22.

of the defence budget. The Conservatives five back they had

:44:23.:44:25.

raised the defence budget in each year Parliament if they win the

:44:26.:44:29.

election. Labour says they would maintain concurrent defence spending

:44:30.:44:36.

levels. Johnny Kimura former British Army officer. A volatile world out

:44:37.:44:40.

ballistic missiles, China has become ballistic missiles, China has become

:44:41.:44:45.

Middle East. Our Tories taking Middle East. Our Tories taking

:44:46.:44:50.

defence spending seriously enough? There are real challenges around the

:44:51.:44:54.

fence. I made no secret about that in my first two years in Parliament.

:44:55.:44:58.

I want to see an increase in defence expenditure. The idea we have a

:44:59.:45:01.

military incapable, poorly equipped and so once, it is all relative. Our

:45:02.:45:08.

capabilities, we have lost people, but our capabilities are phenomenal.

:45:09.:45:13.

You look at the reach of our UK operations, and so forth. They are

:45:14.:45:18.

exponentially getting better. Should we be doing more? Yes. The idea we

:45:19.:45:24.

are driving around in a tinpot military, offensive. We don't need

:45:25.:45:29.

3%? I would argue for as much as we can. It is not about the figure. It

:45:30.:45:34.

is about the capability we can project with our Armed Forces. Two

:45:35.:45:40.

percent, 3%, whatever. We need to configure ourselves to face the

:45:41.:45:43.

threats we are facing. What do you make of the Tory pledge? I would

:45:44.:45:50.

jump in there. To say that the capability is increasing

:45:51.:45:52.

exponentially is ridiculous. Very consistent what we're hearing from

:45:53.:45:56.

the very top, Theresa May, Michael Fallon. We are at the point where

:45:57.:46:00.

defence spending is at a 20 year low. It was 1.9% of GDP last year

:46:01.:46:07.

this they are pledging to increase it by a very minor amount, 0.5% per

:46:08.:46:11.

year. Not going to address the very real problems. We have a very

:46:12.:46:15.

diminished fleet. Only 19 service ships. That they have the drop in

:46:16.:46:20.

the future. There is not the money to bring on a new fleet. You are

:46:21.:46:27.

former Commodore in the Royal Navy. The assertion our defence ability is

:46:28.:46:33.

diminished is nonsense. It does not matter about the figures, it is the

:46:34.:46:37.

capability we can project. Having gone through the 2003 Afghanistan

:46:38.:46:42.

operations, it is simply not true. However loudly shouted our defensive

:46:43.:46:47.

ability has fallen off the planet, we have challenges around spending,

:46:48.:46:51.

better, looking after our people. better, looking after our people.

:46:52.:46:56.

I'm a chief protagonist for that in Parliament. The idea we have a poor

:46:57.:47:02.

monetary, Inc incapable... That is not... How would the defence be

:47:03.:47:10.

better under Labour? Labour would be committed to holding firm on the two

:47:11.:47:15.

percent Nato commitments, putting in place a more balanced capability in

:47:16.:47:19.

the future. The Tories are saying they will have the two percent plus

:47:20.:47:24.

money. For example, we are investing huge amounts of money in the two

:47:25.:47:28.

aircraft carriers which are a good thing in many respects. Forcing the

:47:29.:47:32.

whole of the Armed Forces to come out we cannot sustain that kind of

:47:33.:47:36.

percent of our Armed Forces without percent of our Armed Forces without

:47:37.:47:39.

spending which they are not going to bring. We would have approached

:47:40.:47:43.

bringing more balance. Does this all boil down to trust? Do people trust

:47:44.:47:50.

the Tories they will come good? You did say before the last election HMS

:47:51.:47:55.

Ocean would be safe. Subsequent to the election, it was scrapped. What

:47:56.:48:01.

I said in the tweet, HMS Ocean would be scrapped, that is nonsense. The

:48:02.:48:08.

decisions around equipment and procurement go around all the time.

:48:09.:48:11.

Looking at the threats we face. Spending priorities. When it comes

:48:12.:48:17.

down to trust, I understand the Labour Party have on their manifesto

:48:18.:48:21.

commitment, but ultimately you are led by someone who's a member of

:48:22.:48:25.

CND, he does not believe in it. A vote for Labour for summer like

:48:26.:48:29.

Plymouth be catastrophic. Here we go, trying to bring the argument up

:48:30.:48:34.

to Jeremy Corbyn. He is your leader. What signalled does give to the

:48:35.:48:39.

people in Plymouth that HMS Ocean refitted at 65 million cost in 2015,

:48:40.:48:47.

a predictive life in 2025, scrapped. What if we get the Tied 26s down

:48:48.:48:53.

here to replace that. That is the nature of the fence. What signal

:48:54.:48:57.

does it send around the amphibious capability? Very briefly, people on

:48:58.:49:06.

the doorstep, they think Jeremy Corbyn 's antinuclear? Does that

:49:07.:49:10.

make a difference to how people will vote? The Labour Party is absolutely

:49:11.:49:16.

and seriously committed to an independent nuclear deterrent.

:49:17.:49:22.

Jeremy Corbyn has a personal view about being antinuclear, and many

:49:23.:49:26.

people do. He said he was not a pacifist. We had to move on. Many

:49:27.:49:33.

people see reducing nuclear armaments as a huge thing for our

:49:34.:49:35.

society and world. It was at the centre of last

:49:36.:49:36.

year's EU referendum, and in many parts of the South West

:49:37.:49:40.

it'll be a big issue in this No surprise then that

:49:41.:49:43.

the Environment Secretary was in the region meeting

:49:44.:49:46.

fishermen this week. She was one of the stars of the

:49:47.:49:59.

League campaign. We need to take back control and vote leave on

:50:00.:50:02.

Thursday. Environment Secretary Andrea Leadsom. In Cornwall this

:50:03.:50:08.

week, hanging out in the fishing communities who voted the way she

:50:09.:50:12.

did. I gather Andrea Leadsom was in the patch. Not keen to answer

:50:13.:50:17.

questions about the planned to take back control. A visit intended to be

:50:18.:50:22.

private, apparently. Some of them are, I'm told. For those who did get

:50:23.:50:28.

to meet, a chance to remind her promises made. We were front and

:50:29.:50:33.

centre in the Brexit campaign, prepared to be used then. The

:50:34.:50:41.

negotiators, pray Brexit, and overfishing. Nervousness that a

:50:42.:50:48.

leaving present, exclusive use of the fishing waters up to 12 miles

:50:49.:50:51.

off the British coast could be bargained away. If the final outcome

:50:52.:50:56.

is the UK Government saving a few jobs in the city of London and and

:50:57.:51:03.

betraying the producers and fishermen here, the general public

:51:04.:51:06.

will not be very happy with that. Only yesterday the campaign group

:51:07.:51:12.

Fishing for Leave was due to meet, with the fishing minister, George

:51:13.:51:15.

Eustis. The cancellation of the meeting at short notice has caused

:51:16.:51:19.

some to suppose the government is getting tied up in knots. Somewhere

:51:20.:51:23.

behind the scenes there is a change in policy. Someone cannot say what

:51:24.:51:28.

they were intending to say. Rather than saying the situation has

:51:29.:51:32.

changed, political things are difficult. They have said sorry I

:51:33.:51:34.

cannot come to the meeting. That seems bad. The fishermen here were

:51:35.:51:41.

already a bit worried, the cancellation of this weekend's

:51:42.:51:45.

meeting has unnerved them even more. Some reckon the politicians don't

:51:46.:51:47.

want to answer difficult questions about something called the London

:51:48.:51:55.

Convention. Drawn up before we joined the EU, the London Convention

:51:56.:51:58.

gives other European countries access to the waters between six and

:51:59.:52:03.

12 miles off the British coast. It could still apply even after we

:52:04.:52:07.

leave. And that the government is yet to serve notice on the agreement

:52:08.:52:10.

is seen by some as a potential problem. Perhaps even assign

:52:11.:52:14.

ministers are not serious about a new fishing deal. If it was me, and

:52:15.:52:21.

I was in Andrea Leadsom's or George Eustis's shoes, I would have given

:52:22.:52:25.

notice to clear the ground of any potential trip hazards. Let's be

:52:26.:52:29.

clear, we have raised that. The fishing minister told us this week a

:52:30.:52:31.

Conservative government would definitely take back control the

:52:32.:52:34.

British fishing waters. The fishermen reckon, if you are serious

:52:35.:52:39.

about taking back control he would have torn up the London Convention?

:52:40.:52:43.

It is not about tearing it up. The London Convention have the provision

:52:44.:52:47.

you can give two years notice to leave. Some lawyers would say the

:52:48.:52:50.

common fisheries policy superseded the agreement. We are looking

:52:51.:52:55.

closely at all of the issues. As the prime ministers said, we had to be

:52:56.:52:58.

to make an announcement on this soon. For now Mr Eustis is sticking

:52:59.:53:03.

to the line he gave us back in March. Whether a commitment to get

:53:04.:53:06.

rid of the London Convention makes it into the Conservative manifesto

:53:07.:53:07.

remains to be seen. To discuss this we are joined by the

:53:08.:53:15.

Ukip candidate in South West Devon, Ian Ross. And from our true arose

:53:16.:53:21.

studio, the candidate for St Ives, Andrew George. Ian, if we come to

:53:22.:53:28.

you first, Ukip has launched its policy for fishing, you say you are

:53:29.:53:32.

completely going to take back control of our waters. Would that

:53:33.:53:37.

not antagonise the European union before negotiations? No, I think

:53:38.:53:43.

absolutely not. We're trying to get to the position where we are truly

:53:44.:53:47.

sovereign and independent country again. Most countries in the world

:53:48.:53:52.

who have maritime exclusion zones controlled them exclusively. That is

:53:53.:53:57.

to say, the fishing rights in them are done by those nationals of the

:53:58.:54:03.

country concerned. You will Tarrabt the London agreement, which means

:54:04.:54:08.

the 12 miles outside of our coasts, we could start fishing in

:54:09.:54:13.

straightaway, stop foreign, European vessels fishing. The London

:54:14.:54:21.

Convention affects fishing in the six to 12 mile zone. The late rest

:54:22.:54:25.

of the waters up to 200 miles out, the solution zone is governed by the

:54:26.:54:30.

common fisheries Convention. When we leave the EU, we will drop out of

:54:31.:54:34.

that. They'll be a scenario where EU ships can come in the six and 12

:54:35.:54:40.

mile zone. Andrew, we were speaking to fishermen this week, he told us

:54:41.:54:45.

you personally have been very perceptive to their arguments.

:54:46.:54:48.

Actually the Liberal Democrat party is not so much. What would you say

:54:49.:54:54.

to that? Well, in fact the party and myself when I was fisheries

:54:55.:54:57.

spokesman for the party argued very strong links for the end of the

:54:58.:55:03.

London Convention. What we need to do is bring fisheries regulations up

:55:04.:55:08.

to date. Allowing access between the six and 12 mile zone is in fact

:55:09.:55:15.

rather archaic, as the hysterical entitlement of foreign vessels are

:55:16.:55:19.

indeed vessels that have been scrapped years ago. And the power

:55:20.:55:24.

and effectiveness of those vessels coming from France and other

:55:25.:55:28.

countries into those six and 12 mile zone are not. Should the government

:55:29.:55:35.

have served notice on this already present this is something which

:55:36.:55:38.

could have happened years ago, did not require Brexit to negotiate the

:55:39.:55:43.

six and 12 mile zone. Something which could, and we have been

:55:44.:55:46.

arguing for years, should have been part of the renegotiation and

:55:47.:55:49.

modernisation of the common fisheries policy. Does not require

:55:50.:55:55.

Brexit in any sense, to actually regularise and bring up to date

:55:56.:56:01.

something. Johnny, as a Conservative, why haven't you done

:56:02.:56:05.

this? The Prime Minister was asked about this in the last PMQs, before

:56:06.:56:11.

parliament broke up. I think there will be something on this in a

:56:12.:56:15.

manifesto. That is my feeling. I have no insight into that. On this I

:56:16.:56:21.

will plead the fifth. If we sit here in a week's Tymon is not in a

:56:22.:56:24.

manifesto, let's have a conversation about it. It is clear, you heard

:56:25.:56:29.

challenge around this area. The challenge around this area. The

:56:30.:56:32.

Conservative government is committed to the UK fishing. Something which

:56:33.:56:38.

may be in the Tory manifesto? I don't know. We have been talking

:56:39.:56:41.

about it the years from the triggering of Article 50 was a

:56:42.:56:45.

perfect opportunity to clear the slate, taking back for control of

:56:46.:56:48.

our fisheries, starting the negotiation from there. I am

:56:49.:56:51.

concerned personally the Tory party are hanging back with their real

:56:52.:56:56.

feelings until after the election. Part of their negotiating package.

:56:57.:57:01.

That may not be negotiation that helps and supports our fishermen in

:57:02.:57:04.

the south-west. That might be part of a bigger deal to help people in

:57:05.:57:08.

the south-east get their rights for bankers. Could you reply to that?

:57:09.:57:17.

The idea, we have been through the whole argument about using EU

:57:18.:57:19.

nationals at negotiating chips, very emotive. All Theresa May and the

:57:20.:57:24.

government and George Eustis is trying to do is get the best deal

:57:25.:57:27.

fishermen. You will see more detail fishermen. You will see more detail

:57:28.:57:32.

on that in the manifesto. Could fishermen suffer as part of getting

:57:33.:57:38.

a good negotiating deal? I think fishermen have been sold a cruel

:57:39.:57:43.

hoax. Through the leaving process. You might as well put the reclaiming

:57:44.:57:47.

of the fishing waters out of a 200 mile limit on the site of a red

:57:48.:57:54.

campaign bus. There is no way which that can be achieved unless you are

:57:55.:57:58.

prepared to enforce that with gunboats, and be on a war footing.

:57:59.:58:02.

What we need is to be very realistic about what can be achieved outside

:58:03.:58:12.

of the 12 mile limit. It is, the fishermen themselves have been let

:58:13.:58:14.

down. I have to leave it there. Thank you.

:58:15.:58:21.

There is a full list of candidates standing on June the 8th on the BBC

:58:22.:58:25.

website. Now our regular round-up

:58:26.:58:28.

of the political week Exeter's Labour MP Ben Bradshaw

:58:29.:58:42.

refused to endorse his own party's league manifesto, when asked about

:58:43.:58:47.

this week. I have my own manifesto. Support it? I support my Exeter

:58:48.:58:52.

manifesto. Meanwhile Labour rejected the Green Party's offer not to stand

:58:53.:58:59.

in Exeter, in exchange for not starting in the Isle of Wight. When

:59:00.:59:07.

we are told when the election would be, and suddenly moving forward

:59:08.:59:11.

three years, making a nonsense of democracy for smaller parties.

:59:12.:59:16.

Secondary schools in Devon say they're cutting hundreds of jobs,

:59:17.:59:19.

removing the number of courses on offer to balance their books. Not

:59:20.:59:23.

good enough to say there is not enough money. This is the future of

:59:24.:59:28.

our country and children. A row erupting over the use of children as

:59:29.:59:32.

political props, after a visit from Tim Farron. Let's look at this row,

:59:33.:59:47.

Tim Farren using children as political props. Tim Farron was at a

:59:48.:59:52.

school which your children attend, and your wife put up some footage,

:59:53.:59:56.

unhappy enough to stay during protest up the road. In favour of

:59:57.:00:01.

the Tory party. She tweeted, your children should not be used as

:00:02.:00:04.

political props. This is something you support. I support my wife. She

:00:05.:00:11.

said, and I think she has a clear point. During a general election

:00:12.:00:15.

campaign schools should not be used to launch campaign policies. I

:00:16.:00:19.

support in that. Everybody is entitled to different view. Even if

:00:20.:00:25.

it is about school policy. Those children don't have a choice about

:00:26.:00:28.

being there. I go out on the campaign trail with my children all

:00:29.:00:31.

the time. I believe people are looking at me, I want them to know

:00:32.:00:35.

me and my family, know what motivates me. There are pictures of

:00:36.:00:41.

you sitting with children? During a campaign period, no, that was what

:00:42.:00:44.

was said. Gareth, we saw Ben Bradshaw there. I am being told,

:00:45.:00:51.

that is the end of the programme. That is the Sunday holed politics.

:00:52.:00:53.

Thanks to both my guess. I hand Tories are saying. It is a very

:00:54.:00:58.

emotive subject and we have run out of time.

:00:59.:01:05.

On Thursday nominations closed in the 650 parliamentary

:01:06.:01:10.

seats across the country, so now we know exactly who's

:01:11.:01:12.

We've been analysing the parties' candidates to find out

:01:13.:01:19.

what they might tell us about the make-up of the House

:01:20.:01:22.

Well, we know Theresa May is committed to delivering Brexit and

:01:23.:01:26.

analysis of Conservative candidates has shown that

:01:27.:01:31.

in their top 100 target seats, 37 candidates supported leave

:01:32.:01:34.

during last year's referendum campaign

:01:35.:01:42.

and 20 supported remain; 43 have not made public

:01:43.:01:44.

In the last parliament, the vast majority of Labour MPs

:01:45.:01:50.

were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how supportive are Labour

:01:51.:01:52.

Well, of 50 of Labour's top 100 target seats

:01:53.:01:59.

17 candidates have expressed support for Mr Corbyn.

:02:00.:02:01.

20 candidates supported Owen Smith in last year's leadership contest

:02:02.:02:06.

or have expressed anti-Corbyn sentiment, and

:02:07.:02:10.

If they won those, the Labour benches would be

:02:11.:02:16.

marginally more sympathetic to Mr Corbyn than they are now.

:02:17.:02:18.

What do the figures tell us about where the other

:02:19.:02:20.

Well, the Lib Dems have decided not to stand against the Greens

:02:21.:02:24.

in Brighton Pavilion, and are fielding 629

:02:25.:02:26.

candidates this year - that's two fewer than 2015.

:02:27.:02:29.

The number of Ukip candidates has fallen dramatically.

:02:30.:02:33.

They are standing in 247 fewer constituencies than 2015,

:02:34.:02:39.

throwing their support behind solidly pro-Brexit Tories

:02:40.:02:41.

in some areas such as Lewes and Norfolk North.

:02:42.:02:46.

The Greens are fielding 103 fewer candidates

:02:47.:02:49.

than at the last election, standing down to help

:02:50.:03:00.

other progressive candidates in some places.

:03:01.:03:06.

The most liking statistic is the demise in Ukip candidates, is this

:03:07.:03:19.

their swansong? And I think so. It is remarkable how few Ukip

:03:20.:03:25.

candidates are standing. It is hard to see they will suddenly revive in

:03:26.:03:29.

the next couple of years. I think this is probably the end. Frank

:03:30.:03:39.

Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of the left was a feature of this

:03:40.:03:43.

election, but also there is the consolidation of the right, and if

:03:44.:03:46.

you take the things together that could explain why the polls are

:03:47.:03:51.

where they are. Absolutely, that's precisely what happened at the start

:03:52.:03:56.

of the 1980s, the right was incredibly united and that's when we

:03:57.:04:01.

started talking about majorities of over 100 or so. No matter what the

:04:02.:04:08.

size of Theresa May's majority, it will be the total collapse of Ukip,

:04:09.:04:12.

but not just because we are now leaving the EU and that was their

:04:13.:04:18.

only reason for being, but a whole lot of people voted for Ukip because

:04:19.:04:22.

they felt the Tories were no longer listening. Theresa May has given the

:04:23.:04:30.

impression that she is listening, and that is the biggest possible

:04:31.:04:33.

thing that could happen to the Tory vote. Fragmentation of the left,

:04:34.:04:42.

consolidation of the right? It's one of the lessons that is never learnt,

:04:43.:04:48.

it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't take much for the whole thing to

:04:49.:04:52.

fracture so now you have on the centre-left the SNP, the Labour

:04:53.:04:58.

Party, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats all competing for the same

:04:59.:05:03.

votes and when you have, fleetingly perhaps, large numbers coalescing on

:05:04.:05:07.

the right in one party, there is only going to be one outcome. It

:05:08.:05:13.

happens regularly. It doesn't mean the Tories haven't got their own

:05:14.:05:18.

fragility. Two years ago, David Cameron and George Osborne the

:05:19.:05:22.

dominant figures, neither are in Parliament now which is a symptom of

:05:23.:05:26.

the fragility this election is disguising. Mrs May's position in a

:05:27.:05:32.

way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on

:05:33.:05:37.

the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in France, I won't be outflanked on the

:05:38.:05:41.

right, so the National Front didn't get through either timed he ran to

:05:42.:05:44.

the second round on like this time, and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be

:05:45.:05:51.

outflanked Iver and as a result has seen off right flank. And also she

:05:52.:05:55.

is looking to the left as well with some of the state interventions.

:05:56.:05:59.

What was interesting about the analysis you showed a few minutes

:06:00.:06:02.

ago was the number of Tory candidates who have apparently not

:06:03.:06:07.

declared which way they voted in the referendum, and you would have

:06:08.:06:11.

thought if this election was all about Brexit, as some would claim,

:06:12.:06:15.

that would become an unsustainable position, and actually more it's

:06:16.:06:20.

about leadership. But the point that I'm now hearing from a number of

:06:21.:06:25.

Labour candidates that they are seeing Tory leaflets that don't even

:06:26.:06:31.

have the Tory candidate's name on them, it is just about Theresa May.

:06:32.:06:36.

I am glad they are keeping to the law because by law they have to put

:06:37.:06:41.

it on. It has been harder for some of the smaller parties too because

:06:42.:06:47.

of the speed of the election being called. We have the manifesto is

:06:48.:06:53.

coming out this week. I think Labour Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet

:06:54.:06:57.

sure when the Tories will bring bears out. I suggest one thing, it

:06:58.:07:01.

will at least for people like me bring an end to the question you

:07:02.:07:09.

will have to wait for the manifesto. And Rebecca Long baby will never

:07:10.:07:12.

have that excuse again, isn't it wonderful! She is not the only one.

:07:13.:07:22.

When you are trying to take the north and Midlands from Labour, I

:07:23.:07:28.

would go to one or the other. For me, I can barely hold back my

:07:29.:07:33.

excitement over the Tory manifesto. This will be, I think, the most

:07:34.:07:36.

important day for the British government for the next five years.

:07:37.:07:45.

That wasn't irony there? You actually meant that? I'm not even

:07:46.:07:50.

being cynical at all on Sunday Politics! This is a huge day and

:07:51.:07:57.

it's because I think we will see... I don't think Mrs May will play it

:07:58.:08:01.

safe and I don't think we will get the broadbrush stuff that she might

:08:02.:08:07.

be advised to do. I think she will lay out precisely what you want to

:08:08.:08:11.

do over the next five years and take some big risks. Then finally after a

:08:12.:08:16.

year of this guessing and theorising, we will finally work out

:08:17.:08:20.

what Mrs May is all about. She will say she doesn't want the next

:08:21.:08:23.

parliament to be all about Brexit, though she knows that's the next

:08:24.:08:27.

important thing she has to deliver in some way, so she gets a mandate

:08:28.:08:31.

for that if the polls are right but she

:08:32.:08:42.

does have very different ideas from Mr Cameron about how to run a

:08:43.:08:47.

country. She will I assume one to mandate for what these different

:08:48.:08:49.

ideas are. Otherwise there is no point in holding an early election.

:08:50.:08:51.

You will get a majority, but if you get a mandate to carry on

:08:52.:08:55.

implementing the Cameron and Osborne manifesto it would be utterly

:08:56.:08:58.

pointless. I agree, it is the pivotal event of the election and it

:08:59.:09:01.

will be interesting to see the degree to which she expands on the

:09:02.:09:05.

line which interests me about its time to look at the good that

:09:06.:09:10.

government can do. Because in a way this moves the debate on in UK

:09:11.:09:17.

politics from, from 97 the Blair Brown governments were insecure

:09:18.:09:20.

about arguing about the role of government. Cameron Osborne

:09:21.:09:25.

government similarly so, so here you have a Labour Party talking about

:09:26.:09:29.

the role of government and the state, and Tory leader apparently

:09:30.:09:33.

doing so was well. I think that will be really interesting to see whether

:09:34.:09:37.

it is fleshed out in any significant way. And it is not a natural Tory

:09:38.:09:43.

message. Harold Macmillan talked about the role of the state, Ted

:09:44.:09:50.

Heath Mark two was pretty big on the state, the industrial policy and so

:09:51.:09:55.

on, and even if it is not thought to be that Tory, does she get away with

:09:56.:09:59.

it because she deliver such a big victory if that's what she does

:10:00.:10:04.

deliver? Just inject a little note of scepticism, I wonder how much of

:10:05.:10:10.

this is authentically Theresa May. I was interested to and talk to

:10:11.:10:18.

someone who used to sit in cabinet meetings during which Theresa May

:10:19.:10:21.

never expressed an opinion on anything outside the Home Office

:10:22.:10:24.

briefs. Other ministers were roving all over their colleagues' briefs.

:10:25.:10:33.

So where are the ideas coming from? I think we can point to Nick

:10:34.:10:40.

Timothy. One of her closest advisers in Downing Street. It will be

:10:41.:10:45.

interesting to see how that evolves. On Thursday I think we will all be

:10:46.:10:51.

talking about something called Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the

:10:52.:11:01.

suburb of Birmingham where Nick Timothy comes from, who is very much

:11:02.:11:06.

Theresa May's policy brain and leading inspiration. Urdington

:11:07.:11:11.

Toryism is about connecting the party with traditional working class

:11:12.:11:16.

voters, and their belief to do that is not just taking away government

:11:17.:11:20.

out of their lives but showing them that government can actually help

:11:21.:11:24.

their lives. It can be a force for good to rebuild the trust. A lot of

:11:25.:11:36.

what Mrs May talks about is all... It is talk and then a lot of it

:11:37.:11:40.

suddenly goes by the wayside. What happened to worker directors on the

:11:41.:11:49.

boards. It is designed to appeal to that constituency and then nothing

:11:50.:11:53.

happens. She had an excuse before in the sense that it wasn't in the 2015

:11:54.:11:58.

manifesto and she had a small majority so therefore she arguably

:11:59.:12:02.

had to water down some of the stuff for example in her Tory conference

:12:03.:12:07.

speech, which had a lot of this active government material in it. If

:12:08.:12:11.

she puts it in the manifesto, it is a sign she plans to do it and will

:12:12.:12:16.

have no excuse if she then gets nervous afterwards because it will

:12:17.:12:20.

be in there. If it wasn't for Brexit, this great overwhelming

:12:21.:12:25.

issue, I think this election will be seen as quite a significant

:12:26.:12:28.

development in terms of an argument around the role of government,

:12:29.:12:33.

much-needed. But Brexit unfortunately overshadows it all. As

:12:34.:12:38.

much as we like our arguments over the role of government we will hear

:12:39.:12:42.

strong and stable, stable and strong ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely,

:12:43.:12:50.

and we heard the same old lines from the Labour Party as well so they are

:12:51.:12:56.

all at it. It will be a fascinating week, stop talking it down! Thanks

:12:57.:12:59.

to our panel. The Daily Politics will be

:13:00.:13:02.

back on BBC Two at noon I'll be back here at the same time

:13:03.:13:04.

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:13:05.:13:09.

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Andrew Neil and Lucie Fisher are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and Home Office minister Brandon Lewis to discuss the party manifestos for the forthcoming general election. Plus American political pollster Frank Luntz, and a chat with undecided voters in Leeds. Journalists Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards review the papers.