08/12/2013 Sunday Politics South

The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday

morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%

pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who

credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine

tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?

Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed

Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will

be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by

In the South, water everywhere but in Berks,

had on the capital, its politics and those who met him.

With me, three scruffy eternal students. They would celebrate if

they achieved a C+. But they are all we could afford and there will be no

pay rise for them. They will be glued to an electronic device

throughout the programme and if we are lucky they might stop there

internet shopping and tweet something intelligent. But don't

hold your breath. Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last

week, storms were battering Britain, the East Coast was hit by the worst

tidal surge in more than a century, thousands of people had to be

evacuated and Nelson Mandela died. The downed the news agenda was the

small matter of George Osborne's Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his

takeaways and his first opportunity to announce some economic cheer

It might be winter outside, but in the studios it is awesome. Autumn

Statement time. -- autumn. This is a moment of TV history. Normally when

the Chancellor delivers these statements, he has to say the

economy is actually a lot worse than everyone predicted. This time, he

can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted A

better than everybody predicted. A lot better.

Britain is currently growing faster than any other major advanced

economy. Faster than France, which is contracting, faster than Germany,

faster even than America. At this Autumn Statement last year, there

were repeated predictions that borrowing would go up. Instead,

borrowing is down, and down significantly more than forecast.

But George Osborne said the good numbers still mean more tough

decisions. We will not give up in giving in our country's debts. We

will not spend the money from lower borrowing. We will not squander the

harder and games of the British people. -- hard earned gains. In

other news, further cuts to government departments. The state

pension age will increase in the 2040s, affecting people in their 40s

now. There were some goodies, like discounted business rates for small

businesses, free school meals for infants, favoured by the Lib Dems,

and those marriage tax breaks below that by the Tories. But, as with all

big fiscal events, it takes a while for the details to sink in.

The marriage tax allowance is a long-standing commitment that he

could not abandon. It does help those families were only one goes

out to work. It does not go to higher rate taxpayers, I don't

think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I

am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There

is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday

Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?

In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a

red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more

than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying

about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in

terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting

the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was

very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last

time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by

now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to

hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the

Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are

significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be

just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also

worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been

revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of

budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very

much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that

it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the

years after the next general election. As the day draws to a

close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the

graphics budget of my colleague, graphics budget of my colleague

Robert Preston. It's as good as it gets these days, I don't think the

viewers will mind. It's very Sunday Politics, if I might say. That is

very worrying. Was this a watershed for George

Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed Balls? We can all make the case that

it is the wrong sort of recovery, a consumer led recovery. People are

spending money they don't have. At the end of the day, it for George

Osborne, it is growth, the first time he has been able to talk about

growth. It allows him to control the baseline, the fiscal debate for the

next generation. For Ed Balls, nearly not a good performance. But

don't write this man off. Judging by Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it

all is, said he did a good interview this morning on a rival TV channel.

I feel the fact that the Tories hate Ed Balls so passionately is probably

a good reason that they should hang onto him, in that Labour sends his

effectiveness. May be the Tories hope that they hold on to him as

well? A lot of people shouting at someone and mocking their speech

impediment, that is politics that doesn't make me want to engage. The

takeaway will be lots of people thinking that none of these people

are people they like. Who is the main heckler on the Labour front

bench West remarked I suppose he can't cast any stones. It would be

easier to sympathise with him, if it were not that David Cameron went

through a similar situation and John Bercow did not step in to stop the

wall of noise. It was guaranteed a good happen to a Labour politician.

It's painful to remove him because he had a Parliamentary following and

he will kick up a fuss. I think he's much more pragmatic on issues like

business than Ed Miliband. I'm told he wasn't keen on the energy price

freeze. The problem with Ed Balls, to have the first words that you

say, the Chancellor is in denial, after he is presiding over growth,

it means nobody is listening to you. Who would replace him? Certainly not

Alistair Darling, the side of the referendum and even afterwards. Ed

Balls did get a roasting in the press and on Twitter. He seemed to

disappear from public view following the Autumn Statement. But a little

bird tells me he managed one interview this morning before he

went off to an all-important piano recital this afternoon. Watch out,

Jools Holland, he could be after your job. How bad was his

performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The

Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are

defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the

books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will

do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just

the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit

in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie

is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,

in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that

your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of

your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George

Osborne has a superior argument. I think Ed Balls will certainly trying

his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living

crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.

That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.

One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking

back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A

Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong argument to make,

unfortunately it was not made well in the chamber today. Quoting the

Daily Mail, this is two poor performances. A quote that I can't

use because it uses too many four letter words. Baroness Armstrong,

speaking at Progress, a former Labour Cabinet minister, we are not

sufficiently concerned about public spending, how we would pay for what

we are talking about. Quite a battering? There were two sets of

quotes you were giving. The couple were about the strategy for tackling

public expenditure. I think it's fair that we talk about that. The

rest were pretty unattributed, nameless sources. You have never

given and of the record briefing? We have conversations off camera, but I

don't think you have a wealth of evidence to say that somehow Ed

Balls's arguments were wrong. He was making the point that, ultimately,

it is a government that does not have its finger on the pulse about

what most of your viewers are concerned about, that wages are

being squeezed and prices are getting higher and higher. You have

had time to study the Autumn Statement. What part of it does

Labour disagree with? It is a very big question. I think the overall

strategy the Autumn Statement is setting out does not deal with the

fundamental problems in the economy. What measures do you disagree with?

A lot of it is the absence of measures we would have put in if we

were doing the Autumn Statement. If were doing the Autumn Statement If

you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to

get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of

doing that is on infrastructure We doing that is on infrastructure. We

believe in bringing forward 's investment and housing, getting some

of the fundamentals right in our economy. By planting, the business

lending we have to do. We have seen a lamentable failing. There are big

structural reforms that we need. Ultimately, the public are concerned

about the cost of living crisis. about the cost of living crisis

That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above

all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing

to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare

cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.

You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,

correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are

going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not

include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare

cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not

in the short-term plan because, as we believe, a triple lock is a good

idea. In the longer term, if you are talking about structural welfare

issues, you do have to think about pensions because they have to be

sustainable if we are living longer. I think that is about the

careful management. Let me show you what Ed Balls said on this programme

at the start of the summer. As for pensioners, I think this is a real

question. George Osborne is going to announce his cap in two weeks time.

I don't know if he will exclude pension spending or including. Our

plan is to include it. Pension spending would be included in the

welfare cap? That is our plan, exactly what I just said. Over the

long-term, if you have a serious welfare cap structural welfare

issues, over 20, 30, 40 year period, you can't say that we will

not work and pensions as part of that. Pensions would be part of the

Labour cap? In the longer term. What is the longer term? If you win 015?

We want to stick with the triple lock on the pension, that is the

Government approach to their short-term welfare cap. In the

longer term, for example, on the winter fuel allowance, we should not

necessarily be... There are lots of benefits... I understand that, I am

talking about the basic state pension, is that part of your

welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, pension, is that part of your

welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30 40 welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40

year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are

writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions

have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,

if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at

pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part

of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long-term

cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven t

talking about 2015-16. We haven't seen the proposition the Government

has put before us. You claim people of ?1600 worse off

under the coalition. That is true when you compare to pay and prices.

Can you confirm that calculation does not include the ?700 tax cut

from raising the income tax threshold, huge savings on mortgages

because of low interest or the freezing of council tax? It doesn't

include the tax and benefit changes. If you do want to look at

those, last year, the ISS said they could be making people worse off. It

might not include those factors. could be making people worse off. It

might not include those factors The VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child

benefit cuts, they all add up. My understanding is that the ISS

figures have said people are ?891 figures have said people are ?8 1

worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have

to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly

the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was

saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely

out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?

Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the

long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are

facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial

Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.

Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal

debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?

I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing

more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a

Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept

that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn't

sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this

week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the

country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult

decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March

projections work at for those -- Labour's plans. The March

projections work at for those - for both business investment and

exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround

in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before

politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have

gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit

investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have

confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now

under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The

fall in business investment is because of the recession. The

forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the

independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans

of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land

Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are

coming through now because of the confidence generated by this

government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would

increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our

share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it

stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I

have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we

would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would

hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.

Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,

then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more

than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.

On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because

the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed.

eurozone markets, are depressed Many have just come out of

recession. Or they are still in recession. If you look at exports to

non-EU countries, they are up 30%. non-EU countries, they are up 3 %.

120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for

the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part

of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is

straightforward. House prices are now rising ten

times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are

rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average

earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you

would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month

companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this

demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to

give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help

to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as

household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt

reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not

been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,

even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --

but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share

in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The

government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall

economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating

for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for

wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people

employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest

risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending

and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure

you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election

than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more

people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better

off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is

access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe

people will be. Compared to 2010. people will be. Compared to 201 .

Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This is a credible measure.

Now, what do you think the Education Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at

school? Hard-working? Hand always up? Top of the class? Well, if he

wasn't passionate about education then, he is now. In fact, since he

took office, it seems he hasn't stopped working very hard indeed.

When the coalition came to power, Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they

were on a long march to reform education. Just like Mao, they faced

a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion for new school places. They extended

Labour's academy programme. There's now about 3,000 in England. But

then, they marched even further creating free schools run by

parents, funded by taxpayers. 174 parents, funded by taxpayers. 1 4

have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give

parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,

currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.

An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.

Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia". But exam reforms

didn't quite go to plan. Although GCSEs got harder, plans to replace

A-levels had to be abandoned. Ultimately, the true test of these

reforms will be what happens in the classroom. The person in charge of

making sure those classrooms are up to scratch in England is the Chief

Inspector Of Schools, head of Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins

me now. Over the past 15 years, we have

doubled spending on schools even allowing for inflation. By

international standards, we are stagnating, why? I said last year

that mediocrity had settled into the system. Too many children were

coasting in schools, which is why we changed the grading structure, we

removed that awful word, satisfactory. Saying that good is

now the only acceptable standard and schools had a limited time in which

to get to that. We are seeing gradually, it is difficult to say

this in the week we have had the OECD report. Things have gradually

improved. I will come onto that in a minute. Explain this. International

comparisons show us flat-lining or even falling in some subjects,

including science. For 20 years, our including science. For 20 years our

domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece

of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there

a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak

as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is

actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is

about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists

conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things

are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters

were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th

for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,

Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or

outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this

level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last

years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,

absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.

Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is

making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually

translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much

up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good

enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in

GCSE and grade 2. We have to make sure that is maintained. The

Government has based its reforms on similar reforms in Sweden. In

opposition they were endlessly going to Stockholm to find out how it was

done. Swedish schools are doing even worse than ours in the tables. Why

are we copying failure? The secretary of state believes, and I

actually believe, as somebody who has come from an academy model, that

if you hand power and resources, you hand autonomy to the people on the

ground, to the people in the classroom, in the corridors, in the

playgrounds, things work. If you allow the great monoliths that used

to have responsibility for education in the past to take control again,

you will see a reverse in standards. You have got to actually empower

those people that make the difference. That is why autonomy and

freedom is important. We spent a lot of money moving what were local

authority schools to become academies and new free school czar

being set up as well. When the academies are pretty much the same

level of autonomy, the free school is maybe a little bit more, the

evidence we have had so far is that they don't really perform any better

than local authority schools? Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they

might even be doing worse? These are early days. We will say more about

this on weapons they when we produce the annual report. The sponsored

academies that took over the worst schools in the country, in the most

difficult circumstances, in the most disadvantaged communities, are doing

much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the

They are doing GCSE equivalents the lass academic subjects question my

cull OK, but they are doing better than previous schools. If you look

at the top performing nations in the world, they focus on the quality of

teaching. The best graduates coming to education. They professionally

develop them. They make sure they spot the brightest talents and get

them into positions as soon as possible. We have got to do the same

if we are going to catch up with those jurisdictions. This isn't just

a British problem. It seems to be a European problem. The East Asian

countries now dominate the top of the tables. What's the most

important lesson we should learn from East Asia? Attitudes to work.

We need to make sure that we invest in good teachers, good leaders. We

have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It s

have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It's no

the right attitudes to work. It s no good getting good people into the

classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,

disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers

doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from

that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government

education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am

independent, Ofsted is independent. I believe we are saying the right

things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you

are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.

Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a

pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become

better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going

to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do

better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will

also challenge government when we think they are going wrong. Many

people in the education establishment think your primary

purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into

becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of

academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are

the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I

am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see

academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The

study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise

standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school

leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody

with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot

air has been expounded on the issue of whether teachers should be

qualified or not. If qualified teacher status was the gold

standard, why is it that one in three teachers, one in three lessons

that will observe are not good enough. Taught by qualified

teachers. I've not yet met a headteacher that has not appointed

by qualified staff when they cannot get qualified teachers. Their job is

to make sure they get accredited as soon as possible and come up to

scratch in the classroom. Do you support the use of unqualified

teachers? I do. I have done it. If I could not get a maths, physics or

modern languages teacher and I thought somebody straight from

university, without qualified teachers start this, that they could

communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the

classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are

going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to

local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...

New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.

Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been

examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and

children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the

secretary of state and it is something I will talk more about

over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a

school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new

category, Her Majesty 's inspectors stay with that institution until it

improves. Sometimes we don't see a school for five or seven years. That

improves. Sometimes we don't see a is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted

should pay a much greater part in monitoring the performance of

schools between those inspections. Are you enjoying it? It is a tough

job. Are you enjoying it? This is a tough job, but I enjoy it.

Sometimes. You are watching Sunday Politics.

Coming up in just over 20 minutes, Diane Abbott will be joining us. And

we will have Welcome to Sunday Politics. On

today's shawl, just 10% of the water quality in Berks meets quality

standards. The environment agency is responsible for bringing the

remaining 90% up to scratch but it is losing one in six of its staff.

We are joined by the Labour MP for Southampton and the Conservative MP

for sale. It is all about money in your pocket. `` Fairham. It is about

getting people into work because when people are in work it is better

for them. We have seen the private sector creates jobs and you have the

big picture and economy rise which will drive the prosperity of the

whole economy. You admit there is no feel`good? There are significant

challenges but what the government has been able to do is because of

the long`term view we have taken, we are cutting tax bills. If you look

at disposable income, it has actually risen. We have cancelled

the next increase in fuel duty, 20p a litre lower than it would have

been. These are the sort of things the government can do. Getting the

economy growing as it is, and the projections are faster than it was

in the budget, that is the right way to get the economy and Britain

going. The Conservatives are resurgent in Parliament and it is

all working? That is out of touch with the vast majority of people I

represent. The Tories are cheering because we have a small bit of

growth after the period where the economy did not grow because of

their policies. For most people, times are tough and people are worse

off than they were. The great danger as this will be a recovery that

benefits the really well off, the people that have had the big tax

cuts, not for ordinary families because they have not dealt with

things like energy companies. There has been some recovery and that is

good and for all Ed Balls has said... We said at the beginning, if

you cut public spending too far and too fast the economy will flat line.

It said that for three years and thank goodness there is growth, but

we were told to tighten our belts and we would deal with the deficit.

Now, another five years and then we will have dealt with it. It is not a

success. It will take us long now to deal with the deficit as we were

told in 2010. All that pain and the deficit is no better today. The

reality is when we came into office there was a UK economic crisis going

on. It is about external prices like oil going up. The eurozone crisis,

big export problems. The reality is that plans we put into place to

tackle the deficit are being to work. Labour said you are never

going to see the increase in employment or CD private sector

creating jobs. Ed Miliband has lost the arguments. You said he would

have four times as much growth as we have now learned everything you said

has failed completely. ?54 million is how much carers UK reckons is

going unclaimed by carers in our region. They were recently had just

`` produced a breakdown of people eligible but who are not claiming.

In Southampton there are 1276 missing out on funding and 345

people in your constituency. Joining me now as a representative of Carers

UK. Why are people not claiming? The fundamental reason is that people do

not consider themselves to be carers, they are just doing what

families do. If a family member needs help, you help that person, or

if your parents are starting to get frail and needing help, again,

people do that and what they do not think of is how will I manage

financially? Quite often they miss out. You are saying they ought to be

encouraged in some way? We need everyone to do their sons friends

and family recognise this but public services have a critical role to

play. Your GP does not have to be benefits experts but if they are

worried, they should be able to say, are you considering benefits? People

can end up in often extreme poverty if they have missed out for a couple

of years and the benefits also protect the pension. We have some

real hardship out there. We have about one in ten people using credit

cards just to make ends meet. We know that is storing up a lot of

problems for the future, and a lot of the debates and the Autumn

Statement are about the choice between heating and eating. What

about the benefits changes? Are things going to get better or

worse? It is a really complicated system and there are some changes

which have happened already that are quite difficult. The changes that

housing benefit and bedroom tax are heading carers particularly hard

because of the way the rules are drawn. They do not really understand

that people can need two bedrooms because if they have a hospital bed

they cannot share the bed. Let's put these points. We are going through a

whole process of benefit reform of one of the challenges is that if you

claim for carers allowance, people are eligible for personal living

allowance and independence payments and it is about joining up the dots

for some people. If you have jobseeker's allowance you can get a

carers premium but you have to know what is there, and we are trying to

make sure people can get better information. It is trying to make it

much more automatic. It is estimated that 10,000 people will lose these

payments in that situation? There are some bad changes coming in the

bedroom tax should be just scrapped because it is a badly designed to

change, but the issue we should pick on, and when I led the Carers UK

press release, most weeks and my advice surgery I will probably see

somebody who is a carer. If they come to speak to me about financial

circumstances, fact they are carer comes up by the by, do I always ask

if they have the carers allowance? All of us who may come into contact

with carers need to know enough to say, you should ask about this. Is

it just the transition early change or a cultural thing, or what should

we do differently? All those things. People on the whole do not want to

claim benefits but it is a really important system that helps to

support people who cannot work full`time. The government website is

actually very good on benefit entitlement so I would just

encourage people to think about it and spread the word and get advice.

Only 27% of water bodies in the UK meet the beefed up EU water quality

standards, and we have just 15 Stan `` 15 years to get BS to Mark. With

the Environment Agency losing funding and staffing, that could be

a problem. We are people that care about issues

like Habitat and water quality and a lot of my is really about supporting

Habitat enhancement schemes. Clean and clear water and make this

stretch of the river a nirvana for anglers. This former MP, used to

stalking the corridors of Westminster, he still wield some

power in the world of fishing as the head of the angling trust. A river

that supports a healthy fish population is likely to support a

healthy water vole population and kingfishers and heavens. It is in

everybody's interests. `` herons. The revellers getting cleaner by the

year. It has two, tough targets have been set by the EU meaning our

rivers have to be much less polluted and home to a greater variety of

wildlife. We have until 2027 to meet the targets but there is an awfully

long way to go as at the moment only 10% of this river and the

contributing streams are meeting the targets.

The buck stops with the Environment Agency but government cuts means has

two shared 1500 jobs by next October, one in six of the

workforce. `` to cut 1500 jobs. This is a real conservation species, a

beautiful small fish. How clean does the lover have to be for them? It

has to be very clean for them to thrive in the way they are clearly

doing here. They are rarer sight in other parts of the lover. 90% is not

up to scratch. Pinning the blame is not easy. It is down to different

sorts of pressures. Pressure from development and agriculture and

factory discharges, and also destruction in some places of

habitats. Generally, the water is improving. Reducing pollution from

farmers fields, industry and new housing development is essential.

Some say it will all mean nothing unless we change our behaviour. We

are producing a lot of the waste that ends up in the reverence,

either through products that are farmed intensively, and also using

products only domestic bases. As it as simple as not using as much or

different types? Products that are much kinder for the environment,

things that once they go through the system, the river levels can cope

with the level of effluence. Losing 15% of the staff means the

Environment Agency has to rely on an ever`growing army of volunteers.

Local people want to take ownership of these issues and get stuck in. I

am confident we can do what is required. They can be crucial in

driving these changes in partnership with angling clubs and the Rivers

trust and community groups and environmental organisations. It will

be a challenge to get it anything near the level has to be by 2027.

To make that water quality directive, one in six of the staff

are getting rid of. It is a huge challenge and there is not a huge

amount of public money. They are a great public organisations who have

done fantastic things. The big question is, can you fill such a big

gap with enough volunteers in all the right places, and it will be a

huge challenge for the Environment Agency. People seem quite positive

about it, people who really care about this. They have taken over the

Titchfield canal from the Environment Agency who did not spend

much time on it. They thought they would be much better looking after

it and cleaning it out and preserving it than the Environment

Agency. There's a huge interest they ran the a lot of people are out

there who are keen to protect the environment. They wanted to do

something about the environment to help them and help the community and

the future. A lot more houses coming, haven't we? We can design

these to be more environmentally friendly than they weren't the

past. In Israel, 90% of the water is reuse, and that is something we can

do. It is about technology and commitment and we cannot rely on the

Environment Agency to do everything. It was billed as the biggest ever

trade delegation we have sent overseas and joining the Prime

Minister and his trip to China were a good number from our region. One

of the 150 was Hugh Wales. `` Wells/ There he is in the picture of them

leaving. Hopefully over the jet lag, did you have a good trip? What have

you brought back? We do not do any business in China at the moment so

what we have brought back is good knowledge of what China is about. We

sell to Japan which is close but very different. We have come back

with a much wider knowledge of what the market is like. What do you

think it could be in the years ahead? In China at the moment, there

are 600 million middle`class consumers coming up. At the moment,

1% of imports into China are British. If that became 2% it would

have the national deficit. That is why China is so important. `` half

the national deficit. Are they taking us seriously? I think they

are. The political climate has been a bit frosty but going in the with

such a big delegation, it showed that in Britain we are open for

business. We need to get some of that and make China work for us.

There is a rebalancing between China being a producer and the consumer.

As it becomes a consumer, we can try to get some of our high`quality

British design goods in there. They are called luxury lines, that is the

market you are aiming at? The rich Chinese are interested in some very

expensive products but with this 600 million consumer base it is luxury

like they are looking at. `` luxury light. We do signage and cladding

for underground systems, and the building going on in China requires

new and innovative building materials. As part of that, I spoke

to numerous architects and said, how about looking at some of our stuff

made on the Isle of Wight? It is a bit of a drop in the ocean taking

150 people out but there's a drop in the ocean taking 150 people like but

is changing the culture of companies? I think it is and it is

making people think about the opportunities that are out there.

Understanding more about the market and what it could mean. Huge support

from the UK trade industry with businesses small and large looking

to do business out there. It is a fantastic opportunity. In some of

this window dressing? It is important to do it and do it well.

The challenge is to say Britain is all very well but it is an old

country. We do have to understand that we are also in a position where

we want a nuclear power station and it has to be built by a French and

Chinese company, sorry lot has to be done here to increase the number of

companies that have the capacity to export. Much as much as possible we

have to build up our core economic strength much better than it is at

the moment. London taxis, why do they have to be moved to China? Why

could we not have the investment to export them here?

We must not miss opportunities. Thank you for coming in. Our regular

round`up of the political week in the south.

Hydroelectric power has come to the River Thames. The community or in

scheme replaces a weir and low`power 60 homes.

Sussex pesticides campaigner has claimed victory in her 12 year

battle to get the government to tighten up on chemicals used in crop

spraying. Hampshire police have been visiting scrap dealers enforce new

regulations and buying and selling for cash is illegal.

The Civil rights activist Jesse Jackson told the Oxford union

University does not do enough to encourage ethnic minorities. They

must be equipped to deal with multiracial multicultural world.

The Christmas lights are up in Newbury but a plan to guarantee the

homeless a hospital place was abandoned when people turned up from

as far away as Birmingham. `` hostel place.

It says something it was quite so popular. Jesse Jackson criticising a

lack of diversity at Oxford University. In the week of Nelson

Mandela's death, should we learn from his example? There are many

extraordinary things about him but one of the most was when he became

president, he could have easily said, we have been badly treated and

now the majority will take everything. It was the magnanimity

to say I want a country that is equal for everybody. When we look at

our own country, the lesson should be to keep on working until we have

true equality of opportunity. Do you take that lesson? I think it is a

really good lesson. It would be very easy to come from Robben Island and

be very better but he showed great humanity and was magnanimous. He

reached out to people who disagreed with him and there is a lesson about

how you deal with conflict and its resolution. A lesson for politicians

everywhere, working on coalitions rather than opposition? The way he

reached out to people demonstrates you can work together on these

issues, it is important to agree and cooperate. We can be too much

focused on division. That is, rather than where we can work together. It

will be a huge memory for so many people? For somebody of my

generation, apartheid was one of the first issues that made me think,

what are my values? Do I take the world the way as it has or play a

little part if I can in changing it? A huge number of people had that

response to the issue and to heaven. Thank you both for being on the

programme. That is all from us. `` and to him.

Tomorrow, the House of Commons will pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela.

Our nation has lost its greatest son. Our people have lost a father.

The first thing I ever did that involved an issue or policy, or

politics, was protest against apartheid.

I think his greatest legacy, to South Africa and to the world, is

the emphasis which he has always put on the need for a conciliation, on

the importance of human rights. He also made us understand that we can

change the world. We can change the world by changing attitudes, by

changing perceptions. For this reason, I would like to pay him

tribute as a great human being, who raised the standard of humanity.

Thank you for the gift of Madiba. Thank you for what he has enabled us

to know we can become. We are joined now by the Labour MP

Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not one after he was released from

prison in 1990. He went as an election observer for the first one

person, one-vote in South Africa. I would guess, of all the people you

met in your life, you must have been the most impressive and biggest

influence? He was extraordinary He influence? He was extraordinary. He

had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot

of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without

bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his

achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that

if you have black majority rule, you if you have black majority rule you

might have a bloodbath. It's down to Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I

remember FW de Klerk saying that Mandela was the key to getting a

peaceful transition. Absolutely the key, an amazing man. London was one

of the centres, people talked about it as being the other centre of the

anti-apartheid struggle. That anti-apartheid struggle in London,

it had an effect on black politics in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were

black and politically active at the time, the apartheid struggle, the

struggle against white supremacy in South Africa, was very important.

Whatever your colour, the anti-apartheid struggle, for our

generation, was the political campaign. We have the 50th

anniversary of Kennedy's assassination. Mr Mandela's death.

We are kind of running out of people that inspired us? I will never

forget where I was when I saw him come out of prison, hand-in-hand

with the women, I might add. If you have spent your whole teenage years

and 20 is boycotting, marching, picketing, to see him actually come

out was amazing. Do you think it was more exciting to meet you or the

Spice Girls? I think the Spice Girls. What did the Labour

backbenchers think about Ed Balls's performance after the Autumn

Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a brilliant man, but I think even he

would say that it was not his best performance. But if you look at the

polls, the public liked the points he made. The backbenchers were

quiet, there was something wrong? I noticed that. It was like a wall of

sound, deliberately. They know that under pressure his stamina might

come back and it is difficult for him. That is what they were trying

to incite. I have had experience first hand, a look at all of these

anonymous and sometimes not anonymous quotes in the media. The

spinning has begun against him? This is the party of brotherly love, no

matter what the Tories say, we can say worse about each other. How

could it be that two former aides to Gordon Brown do not like each other?

Far be it from me to say. If he wanted to do it, and I'm not saying

he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I

mean, he got rid of you, he got rid of his brother? One thing you should

not do is under estimate Ed Miliband's capacity for

ruthlessness. If he feels it is the right thing to do, he will do it.

It's not just a matter of... Ed Balls is a big, powerful

personality. He's great to interview because he is across his subject,

you can have a really good argument with him, a man that knows his

brief, his facts. But it's not just about the personality. There is a

kind of sense that Labour needs to look forwards more on economic

policy. Of course, the standard of living has been hugely successful

for Labour. But it needs more than that on economic policy? I think he

has been one of the most effective member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's

always associated with the Brown years, where there is always an

element about, you were the guys that got it wrong. I think Ed

Miliband will be very tempted to replace him with Alistair Darling.

The scenario goes like this, Alistair Darling saves the union and

then in September he saves the Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't

think he would do it. Talk about shifting tectonic plates, it would,

wouldn't it? But it is a step too far. Ed Balls would not be too

happy. It is not something you would want to do lightly. That sounds a

bit of a threat. Not from you. I can't see Ed Balls magnanimously

retreating and say, go on, Alistair Darling, take the job I have been

after all career. Where do you put him? Do you make him a middle

ranking business or welfare secretary? He wouldn't do that. If

you sack him, he would retreat to the backbenchers. He might take up

knitting and practices piano scales, or he might have a blood feud with

Ed Miliband. I don't know which could be. You look back to when he

was schools Secretary, you could feel he was constantly fuming. I

think he is better inside the tent, looking out, than the other way

around. The thing one Labour strategist said to me was that he is

too much looking into the rear-view mirror, when it comes to economic

policy. He needs to look ahead through the windscreen. That had

some resonance? He was at the centre of Labour's economic policy-making

from the mid-90s. So it's hard for him but he has to look forward.

There is an interesting comparison with 2009. Gordon Brown got in

trouble when he said the choice is between Labour investment and Tory

cuts. Everybody knew it was between Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other

words, he was not acknowledging reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can

say it is the wrong sort of recovery, but there is a recovery.

Does he not need to absorb that punch and say there is a recovery,

then people will listen to him? Possibly. We know that the

macroeconomics are looking better. We also know people are not

experiencing it as a recovery in living standards. No one, not even

Tories, really believe that David Cameron knows what it is like for

middle-income people to live normal lives. Living standards is

particularly powerful because of the composition of the government? Don't

go away. This time last year we ambushed our political panel with a

quiz. They didn't come out of it smelling of roses, but they did come

out rather smelly. Will the coalition still be in place

a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I say definitely as well. From now,

one year, will we know the date of the European referendum? Yes. No. I

say no as well. How much growth will there be? Less than 1%. Father

Christmas is less qualified than me, but I will go for one. I will go for

a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a third of that. I am with you, and

1%. We didn't do too badly. What will growth be next year? I will

remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR,

remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR got

2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got it wrong last year. Well, they went

down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and

claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it

wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular

growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is

incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%, incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2 4%,

because the housing market in London is rocketing. It would be closer to

3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this

time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes, I value my life. Will UKIP mean the

European elections, by which I mean have the highest percentage of the

vote? Yes. Second behind Labour Second behind Labour. Will Alex

Salmond win the independence referendum? No, but it will be

closer than we think. No, unless they do something catastrophic like

let Cameron debate him. Too close to call. Controversial. How many

Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than

anyone thinks. The entire population of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel

Farage thanks. I'll go with that, I'm confident. A change of tone for

your magazine. Not many will come, but a lot here already will

normalise and be counted into figures. Too many for most

right-wing commentators. I think quite a few will come, but not the

kind of numbers that made such a huge difference. This time,

everybody is open. They do like to speak English, that is the reason

they want to come. We'll all three of you still be here by this time

next year? Yes. Would you recommend that? Yes, keep them. And he has

lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If you can keep affording me, I will be

here. I hope so, it sounds like you have a firing squad outside. I hope

so, maybe you will find some true talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they?

Let me put this to you, I think you will agree. The coalition will not

break now, this side of the election next year? There will not be... They

will not go their own ways by this time next year? Of next year, maybe

just after. Early 2015. This side of the election? What is the UKIP view?

I don't think there is an advantage to either of them. If the Lib Dems

pulled out, they would look like there were a lodger in the Tory

house of government. I think it would suit the Lib Dems to break

just before the election. I think that is what Vince Cable wants to

do. I don't think it is what Nick Clegg would like to do. The Tories

would love it. They would have all of the toys to themselves. Yellow

marker they would look like the grown-ups. The problem for Vince

Cable is that he's not the force that used to be after his temper

tantrum at the Conference. I will be back with the Daily

Politics next week. If Santer gives you a diary in your stocking, pencil

in Sunday the 20th of January, the first Sunday Politics of 2014.

Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is

Christmas. And New Year.