18/05/2014 Sunday Politics South

Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

In the South: Have you made up your campaign trail, he has been

In the South: Have you made up your mind who

this week, a last look at the euro elections, and the 50th anniversary

of the first elections to London's 32 boroughs. I am in the studio

with those who think they have got all the big answers. Nick Watt,

Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it is the European elections for

everybody on Thursday, local elections for England and a bit of

Northern Ireland as well. They are the last elections before the big

one, the 2015 general election. Some say that these European and local

elections will not be much of a pointer to how the big one goes But

that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from

examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is

local elections and European Parliament elections.

These local results should be known by Friday. In the European

elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected

across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But

the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has

closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are

in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the

outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still

wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is

difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll

which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and

another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more

slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know,

but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months

ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the

Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's

share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment,

and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results,

whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be

Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down

from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one

year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a

significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be

worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all

have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are

saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is

Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly

resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and

incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one,

but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done,

to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland,

Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which

makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but

whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent

event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the

Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a

national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly

historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across

Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. --

populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely

ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general

election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but

they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works

fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four...

We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP.

She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an

earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what

does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I

think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been

around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European

elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are

looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 015,

getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes

on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense

policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want

to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election If

we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim.

You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the

stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and

members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least I

would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You

could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around

for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you

had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17

Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either

arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition

we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist

sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of

that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I

certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who

have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even

putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions

or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the

BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any

other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something

loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party.

We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of

expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage,

who is a fantastic, the media focuses on Nigel Farage,

leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get

our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many

more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers We

are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by

Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between

television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how

much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like

the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in

conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a

joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote

UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party

line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says ..

On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is

obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a

manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have

put forward a lot of positive - a lot of policies at local government

level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual

local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a

school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best

interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any

party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.

People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their

party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote

to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a

road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road

map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.

Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but

there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There

is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that

detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.

We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong

position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade

deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What

would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for

back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade

agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the

European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975

involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do

not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply

concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew it

sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is

better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds

like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all

manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our

sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if

a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am

surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in

next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different

from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they

being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being

trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I

do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian

approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were

learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British

economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out

how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24

hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours

in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make

up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in

Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local

and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at

eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and

producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm

welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.

One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got

Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and

that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but

it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members

for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top

Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in

traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in

time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to

Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not

even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We

will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the

Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the

Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses

upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a

referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.

I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about

elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at

our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in

Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from

chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was

boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just

hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft

their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who

live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed

Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls

lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who

is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're

flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right

place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning

as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said

the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If

he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not

forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40

minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for

something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home

for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy

elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack

Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens

used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went

wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs

and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these

elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party

calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making

poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have

made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the

left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative

vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I

met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane

exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond

issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned

about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the

Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price

bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the

same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline

greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs

and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our

economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has

sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one

planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by

renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on

days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It

is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a

smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to

supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to

work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and

we are losing opportunities. 50 of German renewable electricity is

owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the

big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French

nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,

going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government

proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two

plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.

We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more

seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined

strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's

throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise

council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by

other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at

the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor

numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in

Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are

the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of

Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a

debate to be had from next year s election and perhaps we can have

that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city

should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be

brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride

in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the

people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in

Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do

most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.

Probably a good move. Thank you I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,

the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a

European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and

only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP

party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions

usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on

to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it

suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well

either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation

has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will

not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to

hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come

out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we

want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child

tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but

Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to

halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to

the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done

to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in

the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be

lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never

knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support

because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit

like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now

we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make

together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that

only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been

shown not to be the only ones. 4 out of 100. If we were to come out

of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the

jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives

comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't

really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been

there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite

being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on

Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we

wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal

Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.

But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have

taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We

are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our

relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why

has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your

own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we

have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will

decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is

that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon

and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband

said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy

prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower

than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general

election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this

question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David

Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in

the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties

that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who

say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has

given rise for support for UKIP and we are the ones talking about doing

something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader

bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of

the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who

think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak

to people about it, people understand that we are better in

them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs

Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have

battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to

take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been

delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.

-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,

people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's

antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable

housing they need. We as a government have delivered more

affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties

earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out

that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in

2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly

half a million affordable homes Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher

or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions

of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I

would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the

deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now

have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people

employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say

that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We

need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are

the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any

change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think

like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree

with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply

would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the

workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now

privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the

coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level

since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got

a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies

which directly address the problems which people face. I think the

public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for

the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum We

are in favour, we voted for one we have legislated for one. The next

time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the

relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.

We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.

We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying

in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall

transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for

this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to

leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives but

we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the

future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built

our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want

artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out

of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being

positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep

absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said

that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British

withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a

successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am

very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with

confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he

said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the

party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you

agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and

then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a

line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with

Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay

in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am

not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every

question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!

I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at

our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn

what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems

towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at

sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,

we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the

Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.

It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of

powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we

believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for

economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our

relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday

will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything

you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I

am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the

dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that

Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth

is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of

a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one

more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection

with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should

vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just

that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot

more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at

Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not

been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that

is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible

of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of

the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.

We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -

he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday

Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for

Welcome to Sunday Politics South ` Sunday Politics Scotland.

Welcome to Sunday Politics South ` my name's Peter Henley. We're at

Milestones Museum in Basingstoke today. As you can see, it's a museum

dedicated to British life, so where better to come to discuss Thursday's

European elections? I'm joined by candidates from the five parties

currently representing the South. Ray Finch is standing for UKIP,

Julie Girling for the Conservatives, Catherine Bearder for the Lhberal

Democrats, Anneliese Dodds for Labour and Keith Taylor for the

Green Party. We've asked all our candidates to start off with a 5

second pitch for why you should vote for their party.

Only the Conservatives have a fundamental plan for change in

Europe. It is a believable one because we have a track record of

showing through our Prime Mhnister that we can deliver change. We

delivered a decrease in the budget against all the odds. Everyone said

he could not do it and he dhd. The Conservatives were in the forefront

of that. Do you want me to stop That is more than 15 seconds. Ray

Finch? You have seen over the last few weeks if concerted effort by our

enemies in other parties and the place to attack UKIP, both our

candidates and our supporters. It is because they are afraid. Thdy are

afraid of the electorate. On Thursday make a difference. Tell

them that you are not happy any more. Bought for UKIP. Cathdrine

Beard. Only the liberal democrats are an ambiguous leave the party of

in. We are in Europe for jobs, security, and environment. Durope is

not going to go away. We nedd strong voices around the table standing up

for the Southeast in the Parliament in Europe. Annalisa Dodds? We need

action in Britain to deal whth the cost of living crisis that has

affected so many families and also Labour is the only party th`t will

take action in Europe to focus on jobs and growth and stopping the

spiral to the bottom in wagds and living standards. Keith Taylor? The

Green Party wants to be part of Europe but we think it needs to

change. We need to make a dtde at for the common good where an economy

exists that you can build jobs for life on. We need people and the

environment at the centre of politics and not private profit If

you want a better future yot know what to do on Thursday. Thank you.

So, those were the job applhcations ` what exactly is the job all about

though? Between the 22nd and the 25th of May 500 million people in 28

countries will elect 751 MEPs. But how many of that 500 million, how

many of us, know what these MEPs will do when they actually get you

to Brussels? For starters they will be joining new party groupings. The

26 British Conservatives left the largest group in the Parlialent to

sit with the European Conservatives And Reformists which is the third

smallest, just 56 MEPs. The Liberal Democrats' 11 MEPs sit as p`rt of

the 85 strong Alliance Of Lhberals And Democrats For Europe. Whilst

Labour's 13 MEPs are a part of the second biggest group in the

Parliament, the Party Of European Socialists. The Greens may be the

smallest contingent from thd UK just two MEPs, but they are part of

the fourth largest grouping in the Parliament, 58 members. The UKIP

contingent fits with the Europe For Freedom And Democracy group, which

is the smallest with 33 members Also they will not just be working

in Brussels. A dozen times ` year the whole Parliament, MEPs,

assistants and translators decamp to Strasbourg, where there is this

rather swish building for them to work in for 48 days, built `t a cost

of 470 euros million. Atomitm, symbol of Brussels. Brussels, symbol

of the European project. Thdy were the future once. Have they lost

their shine now? For the first time in its history the new parlhament

will get to choose the Preshdent of the Commission. You might h`ve

missed the presidential deb`tes this week. Surely all the candid`tes will

have been glued to them? After that it is back to the day job,

accepting, amending, rejecthng the draft legislation in about 80 key

policy areas like the singld market, consumer protection, civil

liberties, agriculture and the environment.

We talk a lot about Europe having greater influence over fears in

Britain. But so many people seem to feel that this fault is not

important. It is important for the economy, isn't it? With Britain have

fewer jobs or more jobs in five years if we let EU? Fewer jobs of

course. We have heard that from many of our big manufacturers, b`nks

industrial leaders. They ard seeing that if we were to leave thd EU they

would have to consider their position and quite likely move away

from the UK. Within what period of time? Ten years? You cannot just up

a factory and move. But thex would look to be inside the Europdan

Union. That is why they are here, very many of them. It would not just

start then. It would start `s soon as... Even now. People are saying

they are considering whether to invest in the UK and all thd state

is making them look to other States. The uncertainty is affecting our

economy now. If we were to leave, we now millions of jobs would be

affected. That's cannot be good It is a fib. This 3 million jobs think

that they come out with camd from a study in 2000 and the person who ran

that was not trustworthy. They can see what they like. It is not as. I

let you speak. What we are `sking for is a free and fair tradd

agreement. What we do not w`nt is a political Union. What we were sold

in the 1970s was a trading agreement. Since then everything has

been added on. It was not what we were told. We want out. Julhe going.

David Cameron is offering a referendum. What do you think about

whether jobs would be lost or gained by us pulling out? The issud about

big business is clear. The car industry, British aerospace, have

all said that Britain would be a less attractive place in thd medium

and long`term without being part of the European Union. But most British

people work for small busindsses work for themselves. It is those

people that we conservatives are really concerned about getthng a

better deal for. At the momdnt they are having to struggle throtgh red

tape, rules and regulations, that they do not need to be doing, in

order to trade. Particularlx if they are only trading in the UK. But

negotiating a new deal is creating certainty? I think we have been

living with uncertainty in the UK because of your doorstep thhs is for

a long time. Now we are presenting more certainty. That certainty is

that the Conservative Party will deliver in 2017 RF at randol, and

you will get an answer. We will put this issue to bed for a gendration.

Annalisa Dodds? Your position means we have three years of not knowing

what are situation is. In rdsponse to Ray Finch, I visited a c`r

factory in Oxford recently. I spoke to the staff fear. You can see we

are making it up, but I spoke to people who were working beer, and

they said they would have to think very carefully about investlent

decisions in the future if ht looks like Britain well pull out of the

EU. They are not lying. We want if free trade agreement. We do not need

the political Union. I let xou speak. Let me speak. We do not want

a political Union. BMW were going to open a new plant in Germany. But

because of European Union t`xes they have spent money in the United

States instead. That is trud. But they are respecting more an hour

region. Companies said if wd did not join the euro they would not invest.

They still did. We can tradd with the world. Not just be shackled to

the dying courts of the EU. Who will you negotiate with first? Alerica or

the EU? Article 50 of the Lhsbon Treaty sees within two years the EU

and the UK have the right to organise three trade agreemdnts If

they cannot do it within two years they will lose their biggest trading

partner. All those would fedl immediately. You are very kden on

the European free trade are`. Do you believe that regarding the

immigration question those countries should increase their incomd so that

those people will not move `round so much? It is quite fitting that we

are having this discussion hn a museum of British history. Puite

frankly the idea is that all these parties have, of his establhshment

parties, they won in the past. You are just as big an establishment

party as any of these. You `re funded by millionaire bankers. We

are not funded by a single banker. You are trying to scare the public.

What's the Green Party is s`ying is that we need to put people `nd the

environment at the centre of things and not simply private profht. The

people you are putting at the centre of politics are amongst the coolest

in Europe. That is Green Party policy. `` amongst the least well

off in Europe. We are looking at the less well off countries and helping

them develop. I do not have a problem with that. Where will they

go to buy the JCBs? All of that money is spent in the Europdan

Union. That creates an markdt. Once they are up and trading equ`lly we

can buy and sell from them. We have got to ask ourselves what wd are

trying to achieve. Consuming resources we have not got, nobody

needs a second dishwasher. We are going to take a pause for a second.

Our five guests here aren't the only parties standing. There'll `ctually

be 15 on the ballot paper in the South East, eight in the Sotth West.

And here's a flavour of what some of the others are standing for.

The British National party has one MEP and whilst he's been a lember of

the European Parliament he has highlighted the corruption he has

found within it. They also introduced the British Parlhament

not to go to war with Syria. If one MEP can be that influential, imagine

the influence of ten would have Only in a society where we can give

free rein to creativity and take freely from social production can we

be free because we will be living a life without price. We are `ll

members of one human family and in a family that functions we give

according to ability and take according to need.

Liberty GB will halt immigr`tion, which is behind the housing shortage

in the South East, for five years and deport illegal immigrants. We

will stimulate house`building and help benefit claimants into work.

Liberty GB promotes British culture and values.

Fed up with politicians who do not take your opinion into accotnt? Your

Voice is a real alternative using the internet to break down barriers

between you and your MEPs. Xour Voice party provides everyone with a

platform to express their opinions and suggest solutions. A vote for

Your Voice is a vote for yotr voice. Right now we support leaving the

European Union where there `re high levels of corruption at all levels

of democracy. Also the EU sdems to be almost wilfully walking `way from

the Christian heritage that many nations were built upon. We pledge

to work in Brussels for the democratic and moral truth whilst we

still can. The three movement of Labour within

Europe, one of full 's issuds minor parties are campaigning upon as well

as major parties. What we are electing as a European Parlhament.

Dreams are strong in Brussels whilst they are not so strong at

Westminster. The Labour Party says they have learned lessons. Ht as

they have learned lessons. Ht is the in all the would you do

differently? What we need to concentrate on is where migration

appears to be costing probldms to the living standards of people. It

is only Labour that has set out a problem to deal with that. We say we

need to stop enforcing the linimum wage. We need more powers to the

licensing authorities. We nded more regulation of the private rdnted

sector. If we do that we. The spiralling to the bottom th`t we

have seen in some parts of this region. This is not about mhgrants

themselves. That is not what people are complaining about. They are

worried about the impact of that on their jobs and housing. That is why

Labour is seeing we will do something about that. We have set

that out. Julie Girling, David Cameron says there is not a lot we

can do if we are not part of the EU. Anneliese Dodds has gond through

a range of centralised policies There is nothing new there. Most

people I speak to are not worried about people taking jobs if there

are jobs available, and people on the come if there are jobs

available. People do not want to come to the UK and hang arotnd if

they are not able to get into benefits. That is where this

Government has made a big difference. From January thhs year

you had to qualify through ` three`month residency beford you

were eligible for unemploymdnt or housing benefit. That is thd sort of

action people want to see. Could you not see that is just fiddling around

the edges? David Cameron wotld say that our current deal with the

European Union says that three movement of Labour is part of it.

But did not see free movement of people. That is something that could

be part of our renegotiation. The reality that we have to deal with at

the moment, and that is somdthing that this Government has de`lt with,

by changing the eligibility rules and regulations for migrants, that

is the thing that is most ilportant to people. One of the promises of

the Conservatives is this qtestion of a minimum income average for

people to move around the Etropean Union. Is that desirable? Is it

possible? EU migration is worth 60 billion to the UK. EU migrant

WoodMac P 37% more into the Exchequer than non`EU migrants. ``

migrants from the EU pay 37$ more. Britain has been a melting pot for

centuries. That is part of our diversity which I celebrate. I do

not think there is any such thing as the wrong sort of immigrant. The

fact is what we are looking at us while we are in the EU we h`ve no

choice over who we are into this country. What we want our skilled

migrants. We want people who will contribute to this country. We do

not want more people who will suppress the wages of the working

class by being used by big business. That is what is happening. Xou have

said that you would not havd a minimum wage. This is supplx and

demand. If we are not importing hundreds of thousands of low`wage

migrants send British wages will not be suppressed. I worked for ?2 per

hour before there was a nathonal minimum wage. You would still have

people on the sort of wages if there was not a national minimum weight.

What are you going to do about that? You are not taking part in the

guarantee programme. It is ` two`way street. We have the right to live

and work anywhere in the European Union. There are over 2 million

Brits living elsewhere in the EU. 1 million of them are retired. They

would still have a British pension. One in seven British businesses in

this country has been startdd by immigrants. They are very motivated.

I will have to stop this discussion at this point.

Let's take another pause and hear from the rest of the parties

standing on Thursday. We wish to have a referendul on

English independence, also ` referendum on coming out of the

European Union. We are also very concerned about the rise of extreme

Islam and we say no to Sharha law. We are also concerned about mass

immigration, so it is English jobs for English workers.

The free movement of people to be maintained within the Union. Voting

for the Peace Party is voting for continuing our peaceful coexistence

in Europe. The Peace Party would build on that success story by

scaling down the military, first of all among the smaller countries and

then later with all countrids. What we have to do is to move these

persons away from this country to make sure that we cut the spending.

The people who are going to get a visa to come to this countrx need to

be checked very seriously. H want the same system like Australia.

The EU has taken our soverehgnty and reduces us to second`class citizens.

It is time we got out and took back our independence. There is no doubt

that the EU is a black hole taking tax payers' money. The EU ilposes

rules and regulations on Brhtish people, but a compromise of 28

completely different nations. So it is clear one size fits none.

You cannot see there is no choice. As you hover over the ballot paper,

something to remember. Thred words. Julie Girling. Fundamental change in

Europe. Vote for change. Jobs, security, environment. Fairness

jobs and growth. People, thd environment, centre. YouTubd more

than the three worst but we will let you have it. That's the Sunday

Politics in the South, thanks to all my guests today. And

thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.

Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls

do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune

on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take

a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European

Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By

April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel

Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both

cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.

Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most

unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job We

are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.

Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the

European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is

going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of

the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more

than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are

doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,

certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them

democratically, demographically with the older age profile, who are

going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come

the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of

your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of

pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 009,

and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on

voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now

a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?

It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to

happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is

becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because

distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it

is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to

try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We

know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the

Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But

actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different

sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single

establishment party should be worried, because the people voting

for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.

They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of

them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class

Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the

establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who

are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,

where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are

representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections

where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote

would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any

European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much

attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that

they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic

of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would

otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on

the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not

entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are

completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to

think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage

a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people

don't care. Instinctively, Nick you would think, if you are a UKIP

photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more

motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.

Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as

Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed

with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do

it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we

want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left

the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these

elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how

many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is

saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If

that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street

are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP

but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of

polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which

may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the

answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask

people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking

that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general

election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think

the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term

parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros

will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year or

indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the

parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could

be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a

couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can

see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP

for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's

policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr

Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there

will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot

yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is

plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the

Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a

Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for

each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg

loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially

to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.

I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two

prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the

leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick

Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive

proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.

Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble

for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the

photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden

with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to

appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear

rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know

what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,

all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of

the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are

immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really

talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you

say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this

calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages

and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The

calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt

Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack

Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on

that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,

which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash so

everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed

Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is

difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the

Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are

much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in

the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do

matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in

the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on

the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of

confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for

years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls

could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the

election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for

that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday

There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC

Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the

European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow

lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for

The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday

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