25/05/2014 Sunday Politics South

Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats

say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go

after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a

catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the

UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the

UKIP Fox is in the Westminster henhouse.

UKIP Fox is in the Westminster In the South: The votes have been

counted for the local elections ` who were the winners and losers in

our region? And what might it mean for the

European results this hall spread, the Liberal Democrats

disappeared, UKIP failed to show. More analysis in just over half an

hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics

henhouse, our own boot should -- bunch of headless chickens. Nick

Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The Liberal Democrats lost over 300

councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the

local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the

country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar

comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but

growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go.

This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.

People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils

and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been

trustworthy in leadership. Do you trust him? He has lacked bone on

significant issues that are the core values of our party.

This is how the party president responded.

At this time, it would be foolish for us as a party to turn in on

ourselves. What has separated us from the Conservatives is, while

they have been like cats in a sack, we have stood united, and that is

what we will continue to do. The major reason why is because we

consented to the coalition, unlike the Conservatives. We had a vote,

and a full conference. Is there a growing question over

Nick Clegg's leadership? Different people have different views. My own

view is I need to consult my own activists and members before coming

to a conclusion. I am looking at holding a meeting for us to discuss

the issue. I have been told by some people they do not think a meeting

is required, they think he should stay, and other people have decided

he should go. As a responsible Democrat, I should consult the

members here before coming to my conclusions. What is your view at

the moment? I have got to listen to my members. But you must have some

kind of you. Because I have an open mind, I do not think he must stay, I

am willing to say I have not made my mind up. From a news point of view,

that is my official position. I can assure you there is not much news in

that! I said earlier I am not going to say he must go must stay, I am

consulting my members. But you must have some kind of view of your own

before you have listened to your members. There are people who are

wrongfully sanctioned and end up using food banks, I am upset about

that, because we should not allow... I do not mind having a

sanctioning system, that I get constituents who are put in this

position, we should not accept that. I rebel on the issue of a referendum

on membership of the EU. I am also concerned about the way the rules

have been changed in terms of how parents are treated in their ability

to take children to funerals out of school time. There are questions

about the leader's responsible T for those policies. Nick Clegg has made

it clear he is a staunch pro-European, he wants the Liberal

Democrats to be in, he does not want a referendum, if you lose a chunk of

your MEPs tonight, what does that say about how in June you are with

written public opinion? There are issues with how you publish your

policies. I do not agree 100% with what the government is doing or with

what Nick Clegg says. I do think we should stay within the EU, because

the alternative means we have less control over our borders. There is a

presentational issue, because what UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse

in terms of control of borders, which is their main reason for

wanting to leave, which is strange. There are debate issues, but I have

got personal concerns, I do worry about the impact on my constituents

when they face wrongful sanctions. You have said that. A fellow Liberal

Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg to a general at the Somme, causing

carnage amongst the troops. I am more interested in the policy

issues, are we doing the right things? I do think the coalition was

essential, we had to rescue the country from financial problems. My

own view on the issue of student finance, we did the right thing, in

accordance with the pledge, which was to get a better system, more

students are going to university, and more from disadvantaged

backgrounds. But there are issues. But Nick Clegg survive as leader

through till the next election? It depends what odds you will give me!

If you are not going to give me is, I am not going to get! If you listen

to John hemming, he has got nothing to worry about. He does have

something to worry about, they lost 300 seats, on the uniform swing, you

would see people like Vince cable and Simon Hughes lose their seats.

But nobody wants to be the one to we'll be nice, they would rather

wait until after the next election, and then rebuild the party. Yes,

there is no chance of him walking away. Somebody like Tim Farron or

Vince Cable, whoever the successor is, though have to close the dagger

ten months before an election, do they want that spectacle? If I were

Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is reasonably obvious that the

left-wing voters who defect had towards the Labour Party in 2010

will not return while he is leader. And anything he was going to achieve

historically, the already has done. Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed

Miliband or David Cameron, he has transformed the identity of the

party, they are in government. Had it not been for him, they would have

continued to be the main protest party, rather than a party of

government. So he has got to take it all the way through until the

election. If he left now, he would look like he was a tenant in the

conservative house. What we are seeing is an operation to

destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a Liberal Democrat one, so it is

chaotic. There are people who have never really been reconciled to the

coalition and to Nick Clegg, they are pushing for this. What is Nick

Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron? -- what is Vince Cable going to do?

Vince Cable is in China, on a business trip. It is like John

Major's toothache in 1990. What is Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick

Clegg, because he knows that his best chances of being leader are as

the Westland candidate, the person who picks up the mess in a year.

Vince Cable's only opportunity is on this side of the election. But you

say they are not a party of government, but what looks more

likely is overall the -- is no overall control. You might find a

common mission looking appealing. They could still hold the balance of

power. A lot of people in the Labour Party might say, let's just have a

minority government. 30 odds and sods who will not turn up to vote.

If they want to be up until 3am every morning, be like that! When

you were in short trousers, it was like that every night, it was great

fun! The Liberal Democrats will not provide confidence to a minority

government, they will pull the plug and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg

lead the Liberal Democrats into the next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am

sorry, Nick Clegg, you are finished! We will speak to Paddy

Ashdown in the second part of the show to speak about the Liberal

Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could not deliver the promised earthquake,

but it produced enough shock waves to discombobulated the established

parties. They are struggling to work out how to deal with them. We

watched it all unfold. Behind the scenes of any election

night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and

logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed

to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and

take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,

kept and primed for the results. What this does not show due is the

exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are

doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the

electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into

intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which

ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,

welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become

for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we

will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party

is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even

hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses

to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to

questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of

Commons, and voters became Tories overnight.

That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to

do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.

do something that welcomes them on government, they do not have any

MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased

to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do

you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and

Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?

No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon,

Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne

Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that

in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will

be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis

of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,

only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon

Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is

one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key

marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but

we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you

were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.

That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the

Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick

O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it wasn't an

earthquake. It is definitely true that Labour did well in London but

that is a double-edged sword because you have an increasing disconnect

between the metropolis and the rest of the country. Our vote share was

somewhat depressed not just because London is one of our weakest part of

the country but because most of the warts in London were 3-member wards

and we were typically only putting up one candidate. Even when they

fared well, it still tracked down the projected national share. I

think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the

target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said

that basically smart folk don't vote for UKIP. I think that is a tiny

fragment of what she said. She said London is its own entity and is

increasingly different from the rest of the country. One of the things

that is different from London as opposed to Rotherham is that we have

very big parties. I have a few thousand people in mind, Rotherham

has a few hundred. People don't go and knock on doors and talk to

people, in London we have always had to do that. London is full of young

voters, full of ethnically diverse voters, that is why you are not

doing well, you don't appeal to live there. I think London in general has

a very different attitude to mass uncontrolled immigration. Londoners

know that if an immigrant moves in next door to you, to use Nigel

Farage's phrase, the world doesn't end tomorrow. People in the big

cities know that, that is the point. What Diane Abbott is doing is try to

convince London of its moral superiority so I am delighted... It

is a simple fact that immigrants do not end the world if they move in

next door. The economic recovery is getting more robust by the month,

you have a seriously to ship problem according to many people on your own

site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote is as good as it gets. Those who go

round bitching about Ed Miliband have been doing that before the

result. We have all polled very well. Ed Miliband does not polled

very well. He has actually fashioned some really effective policies.

Unemployment is tumbling, inflation is falling, growth is strengthening,

and you have a leader who claims there is a cost of living crisis and

he doesn't have a clue about his own cost of living. I think that was

poor staff work. That he doesn't know what goes in his own shopping

basket? I think his own staff could have prepared him for that. My point

is that the numbers are looking better, we know that, but people

don't feel better off. Then why are all consumer index polls better?

They are feeling confident. They may be saying that, but people are

worried about their future, their children's future. That is not what

you buy today or tomorrow. If you ask people about their future and

their children's future and prospects, they feel frightened.

What will be a good result for you in the general election? We need to

see Nigel Farage elected as an MP and he mustn't go there on his own.

How many people do you think will be with him? Who knows, but we will

have 20 to 30 target seat and if you put together the clusters we got in

last year's County elections with the one we got this year, you can

have a good guess at where they are. A number of people who voted

for you and Thursday say they are going to back to the three main

parties in general election. It would be foolish of me to say that

they are going to stay. Some have said they have just lent their votes

but voters hate being taken for granted. It is up to us to broaden

our agenda, and build on our strengths, work on our weaknesses.

Ed Miliband may have to do a deal with him. We have been here before,

but the UKIP bubble is going to burst and that may happen around the

time of Newark. Are you going to win Newark now? We are going to give it

a really good crack. We love being the underdog, we don't see it as

being the big goal -- the be all and end all. If you're going to get a

big bounce off the elections, not to go and win your shows people who

govern in Parliament, they don't vote for you. It is Labour who have

given up the campaign already so we need a really big swing in our

favour and we will give it a great crack. The bubble will burst at the

Newark by-election, trust me. Have you been to Newark? Newark will see

from local people... Where is it? It is outside the M25, I can tell you

that. My point is that we are set for victory in 2015. I want to run

this clip and get your take on it, an interview that Nigel Farage did

with LBC. What they do is they have an auditor to make sure they spend

their money in accordance with their rules. You say that is if there is

something wrong with it. Hang on, hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is

this a friend in the media or a member of the political class? Do

you regret doing that now? What were you doing? No, I was trying to get

Nigel Farage to a more important interview with Sunday Times that had

painstakingly organised. He was on there? I have told the LBC people

next door that he was running over. So you interrupted a live interview

and you don't regret that? No, because just between us I wasn't a

massive enthusiast for that interview taking place at all. I

know what James O'Brien is like and I knew it wouldn't be particularly

edifying. But your boss wasn't happy with the intervention. Sometimes the

boss gets shirty. We all upset our boss every now and again, but anyway

you could be an MEP by this time tomorrow and you won't have to do

this job any more. You can then just count your salary and your expenses.

I will make the contribution my party leader asked me to, to restore

Britain to being a self-governing country. Are you going to stay in

the job or not? I would not be able to do the job in the same way but I

would maybe have some kind of overview. We will leave it there.

Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman, produced a mammoth

opinion poll of more than 26,000 voters in 26 marginal

constituencies, crucial seat that will decide the outcome of the

general election next year. In 26 constituencies people were asked

which party's candidate they would support, and Labour took a healthy

12 point lead, implying a swing of 6.5% from Conservatives to Labour

from the last general election. That implies Labour would topple 83 Tory

MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in second place in four seats, and

three of them are Labour seats. Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of

those who say they would vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last

election. As many as have switched from Labour and the Lib Dems

combined. The communities Secretary Eric

Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft Paul that gives Labour a massive 12

point lead in the crucial marginal constituencies, you would lose 83

MPs if this was repeated in an election. It doesn't get worse than

that, does it? Yesterday I went through that Paul in great detail,

and what it shows is that in a number of key seats we are ahead,

and somewhere behind, and I think is Michael rightly shows... You are

behind in most of them. This is a snapshot and we have a year in which

the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say

to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just

around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and

we need to redouble our efforts. The Tory brand is dying in major parts

of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,

huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true

with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In

terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.

After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has

ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city

of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have

more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more

councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who

say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at

the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so

disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we

hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal

Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we

concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power

and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum

of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term

economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.

On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a

single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it

is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us

they didn't, which is important... I am asking what possible Labour seat

you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections

are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger

turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate

to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the

success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in

their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel

that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are

defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like

mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.

We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give

you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You

promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it

rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend

to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I

have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their

national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have

objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You

made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People

defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do

not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your

immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures

that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,

it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do

you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the

election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not

know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and

still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted

for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about

the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the

political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address

them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery.

them. David Cameron has got a better not win in 2015. We need to connect

better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they

have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national

government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are

voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want

to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to

see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your

party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,

like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015

to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%

behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a

year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly

deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.

We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am

a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be

helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good

friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best

things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,

you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a

pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a

market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should

not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no

pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say

goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election

coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First, Liberal Democrat election

Welcome to Sunday Politics South. My name's Peter Henley. On today's

show, after all the campaigning and the voting and the counting and the

nail`biting, just what did it all add up to? Who were the winners and

the losers in the South? That's what we'll be hoping to answer this

morning with the help of my guests, who as party members and even as

individuals had rather varied fortunes on Thursday night and

Friday. Kelsey Learney is the leader of the Liberal Democrat group on

Winchester City Council, Royston Smith is the leader of the

Conservative group on Southampton City Council, and Peter Lamb is the

leader of the Labour Group on Crawley Borough Council. And,

indeed, since Friday the presumed leader of the council, is that

right? Yes. Looking forward to it? Immensely so. Did you think you

would do it, or was it nail`biting? We don't count our chickens until

they are hatched! Back to chickens! The fox was not in the hen house in

Crawley. We showed the residents the change that we need. John Mann was

saying that tactics and strategy don't seem to have worked. Perhaps

they have in Crawley? How important is the South? Is the South of

England where it is mostly conservative? The south is the

remaining stronghold excluding London and we are making inroads. We

are on our way to a significant majority, we saw similar games in

Hastings. When you look at the results, it was a very good night

for Labour will stop if it's just about targeting in one place, making

sure Labour fights a limited number of seats? We are a one nation party,

but certainly in Crawley who went out and spoke to the voters. Royston

Smith, it looks like the Labour targeting, when you look at Lord

Ashcroft's poll, that is where it seems to be pushing them ahead of

the general result, black conservatives seem to be standing up

quite well in the rest of the country? I disagree with that. The

polls were people put their vote and if you look at what happened in

Southampton on Thursday, Southampton is the one that particularly

interests me personally... As the candidate. We polled more than

Labour did, it was marginal, but we polled more. Is Lord Ashcroft Ron?

No, I am saying that the real polls are the ones where people vote. We

had a tweet from the new Forest, have local councillors lost their

jobs due to national issues? Is that fair? That has always been the case,

it happens to write local government, when you have the

government of Parliament then the local councillors tend to suffer. It

happened in Southampton, it happened in Southampton, Uchaf and in 20 top,

but we started making gains this year and outpolled Labour. Sometimes

that is the case but it does not have to be. It is careful targeting

and having the right conversations with people. And it is a local

election, a different process. Kelsie Learney, the curse of Clegg,

your party with a letter saying he has to go. On the doorsteps, do you

mention Nick Clegg? Does his name, ? It does, especially when people

focus on the national issues rather than local, but it does very much

depend on what is on their mind at any point in time. If he and asset

or a liability? I think he remains an asset. Obviously there are

concerns about whether the message is coming across about our

achievements in government and I think there is a perception that

Nick is not doing a good enough job at selling those achievements,

particularly around increasing tax threshold and directing more money

to the pupil premium to poorer pupils in schools. The Tories are

trying to take credit for what our popular Liberal Democrat policies,

and I think Nick needs to do more to say, these are other policies, this

is the difference we have made in government. A candidate in West

Dorset, in a target seat, saying that to the majority of the country

he is a hate figure, we to the public and Nick would go. On The

Other Hand, Mark Oaten, former Winchester MP, saying he totally

disagrees with the current candidate for Winchester. He says now is the

time to give Nick Clegg our full support. Will the party to its upper

part? Absolutely not, we are a party which tolerates a wide range of

views. Jackie has strong opinions and is not afraid to speak them. But

it is a mixed picture on the doorstep. A lot of people give me a

lot of credit for having the bravery to go into coalition and I think he

deserves that `` give Nick a lot of credit. Is there a danger that if

Nick Clegg is attacked by his own party that it would be an end to the

coalition? Of course there is, if Nick Clegg is the current uppity

Prime Minister and there was a leadership challenge, then there

would be a new deputy Prime Minister. With the time and internal

election would take I don't think it would be that critical. We were. To

disengage, but as campaigning forces about six months out `` we will

start to disengage. It is about timing, is Ed Miliband really

pushing ahead at the speed necessary to get there by May 2015? In 2010,

we had a huge loss. We have made significant progress since,

certainly since Ed became leader. It shows that the leopard `` that the

efforts that Labour is putting into the marginals is making a

difference. Voters on the doorstep are concerned about things that

matter to them in their lives and the future of their family. What is

the first thing you will do in Crawley? We will ensure the

residents are well aware that they will not lose their house due to the

bedroom tax. No evictions? No evictions. Bedroom tax, something

which is causing problems, isn't it, for people who might be tended

to support Labour rather than conservative? The spare room

subsidy, as we call it, rather than the pejorative bedroom tax, is

trying to make sure that people can get access to homes, there are

people living in homes that are more accommodation than they require and

people who cannot get onto a list, and it is important that we try to

free up properties where we can so that families can get into account.

, and at the moment that is not happening. Is that message getting

across in Crawley? A month ago, you have the leader of West Sussex

County Council said, we know there are not enough homes for people to

downsize to, but it will spur the market into action. It is a policy

which is openly putting people 's future is at risk, putting their

houses at risk, and we think it is wrong to say it is a market

mechanism. Yes, there is not enough housing, so deal with that by

building enough housing. This is the sort of thing that Nick Clegg will

get behind. Do you support the spare room subsidy? I think it is

important to remember that Labour introduced it for Private tenants

quit along time ago. I think there have been errors made in the way it

has been introduced, the speed with which it has been introduced. The

aim is the right thing to do. In Winchester, we had success with

house swaps, getting people to make those moves, but there are quite a

lot of issues. I think one problem with it come a point that was

missed, is that it is much harder for social tenants to make those

moves compared to Private tenants. Isn't it clear, electorally, this is

bringing votes to Labour. In practice, there are not the places

for people to move on to? In Winchester, Labour saw a fall in

their share of the vote, so it is obviously not one of the top issues

on people 's minds. Winchester is a tight contest between Conservative

and Liberal Democrat, UKIP got squeezed out as well, so it is a

different picture that. It may be slightly different and different

areas have different concerns for voters. But one of the big concerns

in Winchester is affordable housing and how we provide homes for

people. Over occupation of social housing is an issue. Come back to be

thought that it is a local election, as a priest and was

saying, it is not a general election. People will have different

choices come the general election. People will decide who they want on

a national level, point, but on the doorstep people are not happy with

the way the country is going, they are not happy with the lack of

progress, they want action on letting agencies, all these

different areas. The public need to learn there is only one way to get

those policies in place, and that is to vote Labour. Let's just pause for

a second and look in detail at the seats that were being contested on

Thursday were last fought over in the rather different circumstances

of 2010, the same day as the general election. For most of the 21

councils in our region, only a third of seats were up for grabs, although

in a few it was half. So let's take a closer look at just who won what,

where. Ian Paul has the details. Probably the biggest upset of

Thursday night was in Portsmouth, where the Liberal Democrats have

lost control of the council, although they are still the largest

party. And bad news for the city's independent MP Mike Hancock, who

lost his Fratton seat to UKIP, bringing to an end his 40 years on

the council. UKIP now have six seats, and the council has slipped

into no overall control. I am over the moon, absolutely over the moon.

Is it what you expected here in Portsmouth? Erm... Expected more!

You couldn't have got more than six? No, we have done really well. We

have done really well, it's good. Labour had a rather disappointing

experience overnight. They had hoped to win back control of Swindon, but,

in the end, didn't. In fact, losing the seat to the Conservatives.

Clearly, Ed Miliband being rather unsure of the identity of his

group's leader during a radio interview wasn't the most successful

election tactic. I've been coming here 14 years, and this is probably

the best night we've ever had. We've racked up record wins in some of the

most important wards. We've gained a seat from Labour, and in a seat that

they threw everything and the kitchen sink at, we won by over 300

votes. I'm just ecstatic. Basingstoke was another hoped`for

Labour win that turned into disappointment. They captured three

extra seats, but the Conservatives are still the largest party on a

council that's still in no overall control. Better news in Southampton,

where Labour held onto all their seats and control of the council. In

Oxford, where they picked up another four councillors, and in Reading,

where they added another five. We're now in the strongest position we've

been in the borough council for many years. And we are in a position not

only to seek to continue to defend local services, but we're also in an

excellent position to challenge for both the Parliamentary seats in the

general election next year. But probably the best was saved till

last, when, on Friday, the party retook Crawley, a major target for

them, and surely now back in contention for the general election.

Eastleigh Lib Dems had been fearing a UKIP surge after the party's

strong performance in the by`election. But, although they

polled well, there were no gains, and in fact the Lib Dems were the

ones to add a councillor. They now hold 40 of the 44 seats. This,

despite leader K House facing a challenge from a J House one slot

above him on the ballot paper. The UKIP bubble has been burst in

Eastleigh. We knew it would happen, we weren't sure it would happen

tonight, but it has, and that gives us a great platform to go forward

for the general election next year. Winchester kept up its reputation

for knife`edge election results. Remember Mark Oaten winning by two

votes? The Conservatives and Lib Dems had been neck`and`neck going

into the poll, and are still neck`and`neck coming out. But just

40 voters putting their cross in a different box could have given the

Tories control of the council. For the Conservatives, it was a story of

many holds but no spectacular successes. Maybe not a bad result

for a governing party at this stage of the game. More worrying for them

is the rise of UKIP, and what that might bode when we all go to the

polls again in less than a year's time.

And we're joined now by the newly`elected UKIP councillor for

the Fratton ward in Portsmouth, the woman who defeated Mike Hancock,

Julie Swan. Good morning. It will be before your name every time people

introduce you for a while! Yes! What do you put it down to? There was

particular success for UKIP in Portsmouth. I think it is probably

the fact that we fielded local candidates. People in Frater North

have known me for a long time, so we were not strangers to them. What are

you going to do now? You are saying you will not support the

Conservatives to take control of the council in a situation of no overall

control. Why not? We don't support any packs of that type, it is a

party policy. That is not to say we would not agree on certain issues,

that we would not sign a particular agreement. Donna Jones saying, I put

a UKIP person in my cabinet with a limited number of seats but

crucially the balance of power, that does not tempted to say, OK, we will

support you in general, have any supply agreement to say we will vote

with you where we agree with you? Know, we are in this to help the

people of Portsmouth, not for power. We would only consider it if it was

beneficial to the people of Portsmouth, not to say that we will

sign this every time you... UKIP is not in it for power? I thought that

was what politics was about. It might be for the other parties, but

not for us. People vote for politicians to make a difference of

the local council! You talk about cutting senior staff pay.

was a European boat made a difference to you? We're asked, why

do so many people lots of them for years, some of them

used to be Conservatives. Rather a lot of them! Perhaps, but you should

not go around calling people to burst the bubble. The message,

surely, to the established parties is, the public does not like what

they see from the established parties. There is an element of

that, but here is the thing, you cannot have UKIP saying that

volunteers should run local football clubs and then in the same sentence

say, but the council has closed all of the pitches. You cannot have it

both ways. When you have to make decisions that affect people 's

lives, including how much you charge for the services, it is a different

game, and that is the difference between UKIP and the currently

established parties. You say it is a steep learning curve, but will you

keep the integrity that you offered the public, which is why you are ``

why they voted for you in the first place? Absolutely, we had a meeting

on Tuesday, so I was reading of the last meetings minutes to catch up

with where everyone else is at. Will you work hard on Portsmouth

Council? That is a criticism of Nigel Barrett in Council, that they

do not work `` that they do not turn up will stop no, I will work very

hard. I had a conversation with a constituent yesterday just because I

went into the shop to buy a paper. I imagine you have a lot of

conversations with constituents every day. Thousands and thousands

of people over the last five months, it is our main activity. What do you

think about UKIP? I don't have much interest in UKIP, to be honest. I am

interested in UKIP voters. People on the doorstep of said they will vote

for them as a protest. This is the arrogance that people don't like,

isn't it? No, we are listening to the residents themselves and time

and time again they say, we feel we are being taken for monks. We need

to have an honest dialogue about that, not just words, we have to go

out and talk to people, find out why they are concerned. But it starts

with honesty and openness. I think it is wrong to say that about 31% of

the voters in Frater award. You cannot say we are all protest votes.

They would be a handful. A lot of them are Labour voters as well and

Lib Dem. Independent, shall be say, for Fratton. We took votes across

the board, but mostly Lib Dem. UKIP. In Eastleigh, but in

Portsmouth a real threat to Lib Dems. What does that tell us? There

are always local issues that we find that every single election. It has

been very different in Eastleigh, where supposedly UKIP made a massive

breakthrough and yet they still don't hold a single council seat on

Eastleigh council. Winchester, the UKIP vote was up slightly, a lot of

that down to the European election on the same day. On the doorstep, I

wasn't finding much support for UKIP, and in terms of the European

factor, actually, I had far more people concerned about their jobs if

we went out of Europe that those who were insisted we should do. How much

difference to you think the European boat made? If Nigel Farage comes

top, the politicians will have to have some concession towards. I

think we should stay on the path that the party and by Bluestar set

out, to get the economy right, doing the things we said we would do. If

we allow ourselves to get dragged around because on a particular vote

it looks like UKIP also what else is doing well, then we will never make

the progress that we did today. In South Park, in my ward, which is not

marginal but has been close in the past, it is not about me... It is,

because you managed to survive. Most of Labour's both witty UKIP, so I

was not disproportionately affected. What I do want to say, and this is

important, we talk about the established parties, but we had

hundreds of people telling us they were going to vote UKIP in protest

and when asked what the protest was they could not articulate it, they

would say, everything. Probably the best country in the world, people

are protesting about everything. If that continues, then we have to

recalibrate and see what we are giving wrong. It was the county

elections last time, in Eastleigh they did not make the breakthrough,

did well generically in Southampton but did not get a seat. At the

moment, people are telling us, voters, they are important, we are

there for years, and they are telling us they are protesting. Will

this all evaporate for UKIP? No, our membership is increasing rapidly.

People are eyeing into the idea of local councils for local people. The

councils have distanced themselves now. It is a fascinating time in

politics. Thank you all for coming in to talk about the implications.

And of course the European elections still to come.

Thanks to my guests Kelsie Learney, Julie Swan, Peter Lamb, and Royston

Smith. Don't forget to watch the special

European results programme this evening on BBC One from 11pm to find

out who your MEPs are going to be for the next five years.

deported. We should also review the benefits system to make it

contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.

Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,

as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even

worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,

former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.

Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change

what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the

poorest, they now have traction. We have been on many programmes of this

sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are

calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my

political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we

need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the

summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive

leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices

are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question

is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to

take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party

forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend

Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It

could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue

the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in

scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent

to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like

cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling

for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens

from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it

seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including

sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would

like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been

doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the

polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you

will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut

through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking

about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me

take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in

every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or

two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of

them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to

change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election

we not only re-established our position from a base of almost

nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in

1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and

insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we

should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of

that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll

ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum

of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best

part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple

of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a

long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into

government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%

support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding

judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being

attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and

he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has

done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are

in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is

one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context

of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he

can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local

elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on

track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for

us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as

bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general

election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in

government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell

about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country

out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the

Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and

fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the

context of a general election will be far greater than you are

suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,

that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed

Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long

time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the

same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a

breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet

wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the

Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken

seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken

up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have

taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around

them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating

people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the

fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern

Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did

not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage

regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those

Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party

will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the

south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony

Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they

did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle

-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%

in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.

There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did

not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we

should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he

would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the

results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty

well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in

the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes

from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done

well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on

Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a

disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the

main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a

majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break

the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that

they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116

or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in

the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating

finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be

putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is

the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are

nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a

majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous

increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,

which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.

David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you

know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the

bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.

Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch

into a budgeted last week, but he is not the

do not pretend to be something you are not. The problem for Ed Miliband

with that picture, he has some abnormal people working for him, but

what he does not have is a broadcast person who can spot those pictures.

George Osborne hired Theo Rogers from the BBC, she has

transformed... She may have been guilty of the burger, but she has

transformed his image on TV. That is what Ed Miliband needs. You are

correct, it Ed Miliband was 15 points ahead in the polls, screwing

up the eating of a bacon sandwich would be seen as an endearing trait.

We might not have even noticed it. That is all this week, you can get

those European election results with David Dimbleby on vote went to 14

from 9pm on the BBC News Channel, and from 11pm on BBC One. No

programme next week, but we are back in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is

the Sunday Politics. This week, Britain has voted for its

Members of the European Parliament. What will the result tell us about

the political mood here in Britain of the results

both here and across Europe.