15/06/2014 Sunday Politics South


15/06/2014

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The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

:00:49.:00:50.

But the country now faces a de facto partition.

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What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

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It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

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that? In so,

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even Westminster, we'll be asking In London, why the minority vote one

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recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger

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than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known

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as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern

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and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked

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like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has

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now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army

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and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that

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a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri

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al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation

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of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi

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army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or

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surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a

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humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to

:02:20.:02:22.

consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts

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of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias

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are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way

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partition a real possibility with The US is moving another

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of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,

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though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help

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its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports

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that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's

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diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who

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are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS

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is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure

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Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.

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What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not

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recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they

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could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as

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far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of

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Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,

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along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,

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2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was

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called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and

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bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in

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large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their

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side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is

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a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer

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that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia

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Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We

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can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,

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South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What

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is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a

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consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are

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trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major

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city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the

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power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys

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in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would

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like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could

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take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they

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have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these

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newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can

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effectively counter-attacked. But that is what will happen in the next

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week or two. We will see increasingly large and serious

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government counter-attacked trying to retake those places, and I fear a

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really difficult, bloody Syrian style street by street battle for

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some of these urban centres. I would like to have a look at this map

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because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their

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position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking

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over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim

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are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south

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and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.

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-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways

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Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi

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combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see

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millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a

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lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type

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partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of

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Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will

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occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an

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awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard

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about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.

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It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and

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if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always

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be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.

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Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border

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with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming

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a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago I

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did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform

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They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers

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have been never some time and they are also said to protect the

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political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think

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more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise

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the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.

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Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.

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Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.

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He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing

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That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.

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This morning he entered the debate about what should be

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My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11

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happened and you have the Arab revolutions going through Tunisia,

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Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and Syria, you would still have had a

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major problem in Iraq. You can see what happens when you leave the

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dictator in place, as has happened with Bashar al-Assad. The problem

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doesn't go away. What I'm trying to say is, we can rerun the debates

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about 2003, and there are perfectly legitimate points on either side,

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but where we are in 2014, we have do understand that this is a regional

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problem, but a problem that will affect us.

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And I'm joined by the former Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown,

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Here in London are James Rubin, he was chief spokesman

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for the State Department under Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman,

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she represents the Kurdistan Regional government in the UK.

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Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles, we don't intervene in Syria, it s a

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shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed

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question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.

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Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an

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intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him to stay quiet during

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moments like this, because it does drive a great surge of people in the

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other direction. The fact is, what has been missing in western politics

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towards the Middle East throughout both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a

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drive to build an inclusive, democratic centre which is secular

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and nonsectarian. That has been missing amongst the threats of

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invasion Manon invasion, we have just constantly neglected the

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diplomatic nation-building dimensional this. I want to come

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onto what is happening on the ground. I want to begin with what

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the Western response by me, and by that we mean the United States,

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because of it doesn't do anything, nobody will do anything. All of the

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signals I see coming out of the White is that Barack Obama has no

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appetite for intervention -- out of the White House. I don't think he

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does have an appetite. He would be very unlikely to do anything very

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large. He might feel pressured to act because of the fact that this

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particular group, this Al-Qaeda inspired group, fits into the

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strategy he has pursued in Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use

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drone strikes against individual terrorists. So it is possible that

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the threat of ISIS in the region and the West in general might inspire

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him to act, but the idea he will do enough, militarily, to transform

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Iraq from its current state of civil War into something along the lines

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that Mark was talking about, nation-building diplomacy, a big

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operation, I don't see President Obama sees his historic mission as

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having got the United States as out of it. Leave it to the Pacific,

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perhaps. What would the Kurds like the West to do? First of all, in

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Kurdistan we face a huge humanitarian crisis. We already have

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had bought a quarter of a million Syrian refugees and we were

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struggling to cope with that. And now we have at least double that

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number of refugees coming from Mosul. First and foremost, we are

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calling on the international community to help us with that. So

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we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe

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not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent

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on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I

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think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be

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supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the

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federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is

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first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily

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intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,

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provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more

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targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the

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disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be

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abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.

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But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.

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We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have

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seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we

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ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,

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this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and

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from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through

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to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and

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Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made

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earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic

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divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for

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this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise

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although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq

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instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century

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boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable

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because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc

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and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the

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last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are

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we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from

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here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and

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thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it

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is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto

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Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the

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idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination

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going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may

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end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded

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with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key

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thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two

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groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done

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is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.

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We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni

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extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the

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great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go

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into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now If

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in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability

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that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to

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have to do something about it. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your

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southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all

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making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never

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be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose

:17:16.:17:18.

federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what

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it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the

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make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the

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political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside

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their differences or there will be problems. This provides that

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opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I think

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this is the end of a rack as we know it. If anything resembling a

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caliphate emerges, that is very destabilising for the region itself.

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More so I would suggest than even the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in

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Afghanistan. At some stage, you have to assume that they will be coming

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for us. to assume that they will be coming

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extremely dangerous. The only way forward is for these political

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groups to talk to each other and find a compromise that allows the

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rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected within or the

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rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected with an

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autonomous federal-state. Any support for the government must be

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premised on that. There is no military solution for this which is

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in Independence supporters online,

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so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor

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and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together

:20:35.:20:37.

campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,

:20:38.:20:40.

and this week he criticised Conservative ministers

:20:41.:20:44.

for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival

:20:45.:20:45.

approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to

:20:46.:20:51.

engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from

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Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,

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and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you

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first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond

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not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the

:21:25.:21:28.

debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number

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of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling

:21:35.:21:37.

themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a

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fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably

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total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not

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to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty

:21:51.:21:55.

people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there

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are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the

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Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to

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people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,

:22:11.:22:15.

and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a

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democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is

:22:23.:22:25.

characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out

:22:26.:22:29.

of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get

:22:30.:22:35.

to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and

:22:36.:22:38.

you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I

:22:39.:22:43.

think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging

:22:44.:22:48.

in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we

:22:49.:22:54.

want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United

:22:55.:22:58.

Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,

:22:59.:23:05.

particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to

:23:06.:23:10.

support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on

:23:11.:23:15.

social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.

:23:16.:23:20.

We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come

:23:21.:23:28.

This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What

:23:29.:23:31.

is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I

:23:32.:23:37.

understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but

:23:38.:23:46.

it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that

:23:47.:23:51.

we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,

:23:52.:23:56.

it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was

:23:57.:24:00.

varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people

:24:01.:24:05.

think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against

:24:06.:24:10.

Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of

:24:11.:24:19.

four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,

:24:20.:24:23.

Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to

:24:24.:24:29.

the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most

:24:30.:24:33.

incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.

:24:34.:24:40.

Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.

:24:41.:24:46.

Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting

:24:47.:24:50.

fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if

:24:51.:24:54.

people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and

:24:55.:24:59.

opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the

:25:00.:25:03.

accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK

:25:04.:25:06.

Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars

:25:07.:25:11.

and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.

:25:12.:25:18.

How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.

:25:19.:25:25.

Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is

:25:26.:25:29.

running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than

:25:30.:25:35.

Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair

:25:36.:25:40.

Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il

:25:41.:25:43.

and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need

:25:44.:25:48.

to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It

:25:49.:25:55.

is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I

:25:56.:26:02.

think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You

:26:03.:26:08.

have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?

:26:09.:26:14.

The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.

:26:15.:26:20.

You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be

:26:21.:26:25.

flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at

:26:26.:26:31.

all and neither is the campaign The campaign has asked questions and I

:26:32.:26:35.

think it is legitimate to ask questions of the people proposing

:26:36.:26:38.

such a fundamental change. People care about the economy, their jobs,

:26:39.:26:43.

their families. What would happen to them if they leave the rest of the

:26:44.:26:49.

United Kingdom. I think it is legitimate to ask questions. I

:26:50.:26:52.

refuse to be asked of scaremongering. People deserve

:26:53.:27:00.

answers. The yes campaign is equally guilty of some of the most

:27:01.:27:07.

outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you are both scaremongering. Blair

:27:08.:27:13.

Jenkins, the First Minister said of the cyber nationalists, that they

:27:14.:27:17.

are just Daft folk, as if they were mischievous little children. It is

:27:18.:27:22.

worse than that. When you look at what they say, they are twisted

:27:23.:27:29.

perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they

:27:30.:27:33.

are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this

:27:34.:27:37.

campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around

:27:38.:27:42.

Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned

:27:43.:27:49.

out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes

:27:50.:27:53.

campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know

:27:54.:27:58.

we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of

:27:59.:28:05.

polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion

:28:06.:28:09.

polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.

:28:10.:28:14.

Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.

:28:15.:28:20.

You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying

:28:21.:28:26.

in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280

:28:27.:28:32.

hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your

:28:33.:28:36.

hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the

:28:37.:28:42.

campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then

:28:43.:28:48.

why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are

:28:49.:28:55.

taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits

:28:56.:28:59.

of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and

:29:00.:29:04.

more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United

:29:05.:29:08.

Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things

:29:09.:29:13.

like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the

:29:14.:29:19.

issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one

:29:20.:29:24.

very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the

:29:25.:29:30.

England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be

:29:31.:29:34.

delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in

:29:35.:29:38.

the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I

:29:39.:29:43.

would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think

:29:44.:29:49.

it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I

:29:50.:29:55.

was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.

:29:56.:30:01.

Now most of you probably missed last night's football match

:30:02.:30:04.

between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and

:30:05.:30:07.

England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.

:30:08.:30:11.

But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever

:30:12.:30:14.

and with speculation about the fitness of each political

:30:15.:30:16.

party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.

:30:17.:30:23.

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:30:24.:30:25.

This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football

:30:26.:30:38.

stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for

:30:39.:30:45.

these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon

:30:46.:30:46.

and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian

:30:47.:30:50.

barbecue. And at Westminster they're

:30:51.:30:51.

turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.

:30:52.:31:01.

We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start

:31:02.:31:05.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?

:31:06.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I'm afraid

:31:07.:31:13.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got

:31:14.:31:16.

Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next

:31:17.:31:25.

to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and

:31:26.:31:26.

vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very

:31:27.:31:28.

popular since she fell out with him out how

:31:29.:31:30.

to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation

:31:31.:31:33.

about him taking on him in Then there are rumours of a

:31:34.:31:36.

reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any

:31:37.:31:47.

swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows? David Cameron has

:31:48.:31:56.

also got to replace the EU commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is

:31:57.:31:57.

standing down. Does he go with the favourite

:31:58.:31:58.

the former health secretary Or the grassroots choice,

:31:59.:32:01.

Martin Callanan, the Tories old Or does he rehabilitate

:32:02.:32:03.

Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate? Do you fancy being European

:32:04.:32:21.

Commissioner? I would rather be spending the money on the world s

:32:22.:32:25.

poor and spending it well. Glad to hear it. Happy collecting.

:32:26.:32:27.

Right, there must be some Labour stickers out there.

:32:28.:32:29.

You don't want to swap Ed Balls any of the others? Can't I keep them

:32:30.:32:38.

all? This is almost the perfect team.

:32:39.:32:38.

There have been grumblings about the fitness of the Shadow

:32:39.:32:42.

And Ed Miliband's got a kicking in Liverpool after posing

:32:43.:32:46.

I'm told grown men are meeting up in pubs for sticker swaps -

:32:47.:32:57.

With Danny Finkelstein - Tory peer and Times columnist,

:32:58.:33:02.

He would be the card I would not want to trade. Do people want to

:33:03.:33:13.

trade him in? I don't think anybody wants to trade him in at the moment.

:33:14.:33:17.

He is the best person to lead the Labour party and will lead us into

:33:18.:33:20.

the next election. There's been a lot about Michael Gove, and he's

:33:21.:33:24.

very combative. That's been a huge strength as an education Secretary,

:33:25.:33:27.

despite the fact it's brought in trouble. I would think the prime

:33:28.:33:31.

minister would tell him not to get himself into peripheral battles at

:33:32.:33:35.

the moment but stick to what has been successful. I haven't got Nick

:33:36.:33:40.

Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I

:33:41.:33:47.

need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far

:33:48.:33:48.

better. There you are. Some local parties are holding

:33:49.:33:52.

meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week

:33:53.:33:55.

they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.

:33:56.:34:07.

Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do

:34:08.:34:11.

that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy

:34:12.:34:14.

collecting. These beauties are popping up

:34:15.:34:17.

everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around

:34:18.:34:20.

Westminster as I speak. I'm joined

:34:21.:34:30.

by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers

:34:31.:34:32.

throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch

:34:33.:34:34.

the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the

:34:35.:34:44.

break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,

:34:45.:34:46.

senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They

:34:47.:34:55.

are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this

:34:56.:35:01.

jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.

:35:02.:35:06.

What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference and

:35:07.:35:13.

people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking

:35:14.:35:16.

too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that

:35:17.:35:20.

drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on

:35:21.:35:25.

manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he

:35:26.:35:28.

believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.

:35:29.:35:34.

It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the

:35:35.:35:38.

economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.

:35:39.:35:48.

Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails

:35:49.:35:54.

of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more

:35:55.:35:56.

popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an

:35:57.:36:01.

extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while

:36:02.:36:05.

never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing

:36:06.:36:08.

government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant

:36:09.:36:12.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:13.:36:14.

political Charente. piece of political Charente and they

:36:15.:36:16.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I

:36:17.:36:22.

have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots

:36:23.:36:26.

taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read

:36:27.:36:30.

strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people

:36:31.:36:34.

watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on

:36:35.:36:40.

for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe

:36:41.:36:47.

brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so

:36:48.:36:51.

much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris

:36:52.:36:57.

Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,

:36:58.:37:03.

they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this

:37:04.:37:06.

week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove

:37:07.:37:12.

had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he

:37:13.:37:15.

said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative

:37:16.:37:20.

party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two

:37:21.:37:24.

years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it

:37:25.:37:27.

just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but

:37:28.:37:32.

I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,

:37:33.:37:36.

you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That

:37:37.:37:45.

is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit

:37:46.:37:51.

carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break

:37:52.:37:55.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:56.:37:57.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:58.:38:00.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking about Ed Miliband's

:38:01.:38:39.

1st, let's meet the politichans with me. 1st is the Conservative MP for

:38:40.:38:43.

Christchurch and until a few weeks ago the Lib Dem leader for

:38:44.:38:48.

Portsmouth City Council. Yot have been replaced by

:38:49.:40:07.

been telling to reason me. Hf you are the Home Secretary then you rely

:40:08.:40:13.

on this information. I think that the information she has been given

:40:14.:40:16.

about this was rather late `nd inadequate. And then she was not

:40:17.:40:22.

even told that they were ch`nging the rules. Relaxing the sectrity

:40:23.:40:27.

measures. It does not look good does it? With government and

:40:28.:40:34.

councils you must be able to do the basics properly. If councils do not

:40:35.:40:37.

collect the rubbish then thdy get punished. If governments cannot have

:40:38.:40:42.

it passport properly then they get punished. So they must do bdtter,

:40:43.:40:49.

Chris? It is all about delivering. If the government cannot deliver

:40:50.:40:53.

then people will think, why should we support them? It is a

:40:54.:41:00.

depressingly familiar, care homes seem to be the last place that you

:41:01.:41:10.

can receive care for the elderly. It was a care home that field on the

:41:11.:41:13.

most basic level, ensuring that residence where fed and recdived the

:41:14.:41:21.

correct dedication. There wdre reports of rough treatment hn

:41:22.:41:24.

patients with dressings are secured with Sellotape. There have been

:41:25.:41:32.

deaths at the home, 5 of whhch were caused by neglect. It is 10 the

:41:33.:41:36.

government join the dots and concedes that the private sdctor is

:41:37.:41:40.

not the place for the most vulnerable people in societx. It

:41:41.:41:44.

consistently feels them. Not only care homes, we have had winter born

:41:45.:41:49.

in Saint Michaels, there ard numerous homes. How many more

:41:50.:41:54.

serious case reviews like this, but people sit and listen to as the

:41:55.:41:58.

government observed but not bring meaningful change? This is ` much

:41:59.:42:02.

wider is you. It is a national issue and the government must step up to

:42:03.:42:08.

the mark. There is a moral test for government here. On Tuesday Jeremy

:42:09.:42:14.

Hunt was in the Commons sayhng that the recent care act provides

:42:15.:42:20.

controls. In the care act wd have legislated not only for its even

:42:21.:42:26.

spectre of general practice for adult social care who has m`de an

:42:27.:42:32.

excellent start, she is going all care homes and bringing back

:42:33.:42:37.

rigorous style analysis which was once the case but was taken away by

:42:38.:42:41.

the last government. The author of the serious case review joins us now

:42:42.:42:48.

from our Oxford studio. Rigorous Ofstead style analysis? What does

:42:49.:42:55.

that mean? A number of the recommendations that are in the case

:42:56.:43:00.

review do stress that there are certain things that will be a very

:43:01.:43:06.

helpful for the CDC to focus on so they can satisfy themselves that the

:43:07.:43:12.

care home is good with the professional development of their

:43:13.:43:15.

staff in the following profdssional recommendations of the Cavendish

:43:16.:43:21.

review. It is a systematic `pproach? But also keeping the customdrs in

:43:22.:43:25.

mind? Of course. You must kdep everyone in mind. The fact hs there

:43:26.:43:32.

are some very good care homds in the independent sector but therd are a

:43:33.:43:36.

number of issues that come tp as anybody involved in commisshoning

:43:37.:43:42.

places in care homes throughout the country will know this, there are

:43:43.:43:46.

homes where you really do h`ve to stay on the ball. And the rdality is

:43:47.:43:51.

that increasingly we as a society are very dependent on large`scale

:43:52.:43:56.

commercial providers of card to our most vulnerable people. And it is

:43:57.:44:00.

is extending the sort of scrutiny is extending the sort of scrutiny

:44:01.:44:06.

that came out of the report into hospital care into the independent

:44:07.:44:09.

sector. That really is to bd welcomed. Francis at Mr Stockton

:44:10.:44:14.

Road and insidious negative culture but also about cost control ahead of

:44:15.:44:22.

patients interests. `` Francis at made stats.

:44:23.:44:28.

I cannot say whether or not this is getting worse on the basis of a

:44:29.:44:33.

single report, certainly wh`t was coming from talking review was

:44:34.:44:39.

corporate complacency which allows the pure quality of managemdnt and

:44:40.:44:45.

leadership and therefore care in the home to persist. Would that require

:44:46.:44:51.

more, people are asking for a public enquiry, something more substantial.

:44:52.:45:00.

To really shake up that complacency. To my mind the things that xou can

:45:01.:45:03.

learn from this care home wd have learned through this serious case

:45:04.:45:09.

review. There could be merit in some form of public enquiry but hf there

:45:10.:45:12.

were to be such a thing it would have to have a much wider agreement

:45:13.:45:17.

and he would have to look at how we provide care in the settings in

:45:18.:45:22.

conjunction with the NHS, in conjunction with local government.

:45:23.:45:29.

And how we as a society indded put resources forward for caring for

:45:30.:45:33.

these fungal people. To what extent with the public enquiry with that?

:45:34.:45:40.

`` these of vulnerable people. I am not sure the public enquiry is

:45:41.:45:43.

needed, but they rendered examination. The scope of this,

:45:44.:45:50.

possibly through the seats PC work that is underway but the fact is

:45:51.:45:57.

that we talk about all of these systems but in reality we h`ve

:45:58.:46:01.

fairly piecemeal systems. Ldt's turn to our guests. What we want, surely,

:46:02.:46:09.

is some sort of tougher regtlation, isn't it? The suggestion th`t there

:46:10.:46:14.

could be a criminal offence for publishing misleading inforlation by

:46:15.:46:19.

some care homes. 1 problem hs that the existing regulator faildd. The

:46:20.:46:26.

website said that this care home was good for 18 months. It wasn't. They

:46:27.:46:31.

were racing is partly on thd self`interest of the companx. Is a

:46:32.:46:36.

Hotel is marked as good then there is the opportunity for ordinary

:46:37.:46:39.

customers to come in on somdthing like trip advisor to put in their

:46:40.:46:43.

comments. There is scope for doing something like that in the care home

:46:44.:46:47.

sector. There is another issue and that is if you look at thesd care

:46:48.:46:51.

homes then many of them havd double standards in the sense that the

:46:52.:46:54.

local authority and NHS funded residents in these care homds are

:46:55.:47:00.

paid much less than the private sector ones. And so the sochal

:47:01.:47:05.

services authorities are forcing these care homes to have cut`price

:47:06.:47:14.

arrangements for social services, `` social services funded residence

:47:15.:47:16.

where ordinary people are p`ying their own way and finding they have

:47:17.:47:21.

much higher fees. There shotld be standard fees for these card homes

:47:22.:47:24.

and social services should pay the same standard fees as everyone else.

:47:25.:47:29.

Nick George, would this havd made any contribution to Orchid review?

:47:30.:47:34.

There were a number of people paying their own way and to my mind the

:47:35.:47:41.

gentleman is right that you do pay differential fees. The only pay for

:47:42.:47:44.

their own care tend to get worse care in the sense that they do not

:47:45.:47:49.

have somebody supporting thdm in making these the critical ddcisions

:47:50.:47:55.

about where they're to go. Ht is fine to say local authoritids should

:47:56.:48:00.

pay more, and this is 1 elelent of a possible public examination because

:48:01.:48:03.

if local authorities pay more then they will pay fewer people. The

:48:04.:48:09.

money will only stretch so far. It feels that the system that hs not

:48:10.:48:12.

properly set up or arranged in the 1st place. That is a conclusion you

:48:13.:48:21.

can draw. When I was looking for a care home for my mum last stmmer

:48:22.:48:24.

when she broke her hip therd was very little information arotnd and I

:48:25.:48:28.

think for me 1 of the probldms is having a national organisathon

:48:29.:48:32.

taking these judgements, like Ofstead, who do not have thd local

:48:33.:48:36.

information, they do not pick up on some of the things that are being

:48:37.:48:40.

set up at a different care home so I worry about ministers and civil

:48:41.:48:44.

servants in London doing all of these things. But I would also worry

:48:45.:48:49.

about, as Mr Georgiou says, there is a limited amount of money in social

:48:50.:48:54.

services and councils are h`ving their budgets cut by 40% by this

:48:55.:48:57.

government over 5 years sochal services budgets are being cut and

:48:58.:49:02.

cut and cut. If we have to give more money to the private owners of these

:49:03.:49:06.

homes there will be fewer pdople receiving care. That means lore and

:49:07.:49:10.

more people just left at hole without the social services care

:49:11.:49:13.

they need and deserve. Is a fair criticism. If you put more

:49:14.:49:19.

regulatory burdens on the pdople running these care homes thd costs

:49:20.:49:22.

will go up. At the moment as has been conceded there are differential

:49:23.:49:27.

pricing is. If you pay for 0 of your parents to go to a care homd

:49:28.:49:31.

European more than the person in the room next door who is being funded

:49:32.:49:36.

by the local authority. `` xou are paying more. Both should be

:49:37.:49:41.

receiving an equivalent service People are cross subsidising those

:49:42.:49:46.

who are funded by the taxpaxer. We are seeing more money should go into

:49:47.:49:49.

the system to ensure these scandals do not happen? More money would be

:49:50.:49:54.

the difference but it is not just about money. The comment about the

:49:55.:49:59.

information available to people when making these critical decishons is

:50:00.:50:02.

really important and the re`lity is that local authorities who do need

:50:03.:50:09.

to think about the care homds they are commissioning places in our very

:50:10.:50:12.

tentative about sharing that information. People may not ask for

:50:13.:50:17.

fear of legal challenge that are damaging the building or thd

:50:18.:50:22.

business of that care provider. That must be wrong and is somethhng that

:50:23.:50:26.

must be tackled. Thank you for joining us.

:50:27.:50:30.

The information age has thrown up all sorts of challenges, not least

:50:31.:50:34.

the need to keep our data s`fe. We will be discussing this. We rely on

:50:35.:50:40.

the organisations that hold our personal data to keep it secure but

:50:41.:50:45.

as our correspondent explains it is becoming increasingly difficult in

:50:46.:50:49.

these days of information, information, information.

:50:50.:50:58.

We have all heard the tales of senior MoD staff leaving laptops

:50:59.:51:01.

complete with battle plans on trains. In recent years there have

:51:02.:51:06.

been a huge rise in the instances of councils, hospitals and othdr local

:51:07.:51:12.

bodies slipping up, too. Last month this man received a letter out of

:51:13.:51:15.

the blue from his counsel, ht contains some disturbing news. Due

:51:16.:51:22.

to a mistake they inadvertently had given out all my personal

:51:23.:51:25.

information, the benefits they receive, name and address, national

:51:26.:51:29.

insurance number, date of bhrth and anything else they could possibly

:51:30.:51:34.

add in a guess, the 3rd party. Roger was 1 of the early 2000 people

:51:35.:51:38.

called their personal details have been released without their consent.

:51:39.:51:43.

Basingstoke have been responding to a Freedom of information repuest,

:51:44.:51:47.

asking how many people living in rented homes were on housing

:51:48.:51:53.

benefit. We understand how concerned and worried residents will be so as

:51:54.:51:57.

soon as we found out we had made a mistake we immediately sought advice

:51:58.:51:59.

from the information Commissioner and the police and attempted to

:52:00.:52:03.

contact the person to whom we had sent the information. The 1 noted

:52:04.:52:08.

that in the Freedom of information request so no 1 can see who has

:52:09.:52:12.

Roger 's details. Somebody today could be applying for a passport in

:52:13.:52:16.

my name. Somebody could apply for a driving licence in my name. With

:52:17.:52:22.

each day that passes billions of pieces of data flow through computer

:52:23.:52:26.

servers like these ones. Storing the data is 1 thing, using it is

:52:27.:52:31.

another. Protecting it is something different entirely. In the last

:52:32.:52:35.

fortnight we have learned that the south`central abdomen service and

:52:36.:52:40.

Wrexham Park hospital both released their employees personal data by

:52:41.:52:42.

mistake, something they havd apologised for. The councils, health

:52:43.:52:47.

service and other public organisations are under growing

:52:48.:52:50.

pressure to respond to a repuest for information. It causes them

:52:51.:52:56.

problems. We take absolute killer with the information be doubly sad

:52:57.:52:59.

on this occasion we did makd a mistake. `` we take absolutd care.

:53:00.:53:05.

Information is digital and ` spreadsheet can be sent in drror.

:53:06.:53:11.

Roger set that does not exctse. And often do we hear, it is the system?

:53:12.:53:16.

To we run the does the systdm run? There are many positives. The data

:53:17.:53:23.

is used in the right way and kept out of the wrong hands. 1 MP who

:53:24.:53:28.

made his fortune in the IT hndustry said we should not become overly

:53:29.:53:33.

paranoid. There are some enormous benefits to having our rese`rch

:53:34.:53:39.

data, medical data, available to be searchers. Not our Private data or

:53:40.:53:43.

home addresses as biomedical data. We have seen huge advances when it

:53:44.:53:46.

comes to Alzheimer's and personalised medicines that could

:53:47.:53:50.

save the taxpayer millions hf not billions because of the targeted

:53:51.:53:54.

nature of the treatments. I would be disappointed if small breaches like

:53:55.:53:59.

this make the public more rdticent about handing over their data. It is

:54:00.:54:03.

not a small breach if it is your details that have been misused. What

:54:04.:54:08.

should organisations do? 1 of the most important things you c`n do is

:54:09.:54:12.

to sizeable detail. If someone had to look into a separate user account

:54:13.:54:16.

to access this document with sensitive details it would have

:54:17.:54:19.

stopped them from being abld to accidentally clicked on it hn the

:54:20.:54:23.

normal run of business. It lakes the computer hardware to use thd

:54:24.:54:26.

information harder to access but that is the point. People sde maybe

:54:27.:54:31.

it was carelessness but I vhew it as, could not care less, thdy are

:54:32.:54:39.

doing a job and could not bd getting the best pay and are having a gusty

:54:40.:54:45.

and push the wrong button btt never mind. If you share informathon like

:54:46.:54:50.

health care records there mtst be some accountability and support

:54:51.:54:53.

stronger penalties for loss of data. Without the individual level of

:54:54.:54:56.

people losing their jobs and an organisational level. It is weird

:54:57.:55:06.

that it was a Freedom of information request that led to the dat` loss

:55:07.:55:10.

and they do not know who repuested the data. There are so many tensions

:55:11.:55:14.

in the world and it moves so fast. Our silos the answer? That happens

:55:15.:55:23.

often at the moment and the problem is that when customers come, people

:55:24.:55:28.

come to give their personal details to a council they think thex will

:55:29.:55:31.

give it once and then the council will talk to different departments,

:55:32.:55:36.

but actually no council dep`rtments are frightened of talking and

:55:37.:55:40.

passing information just because of this issue. Social services and

:55:41.:55:44.

health to not share data about the same patients, we do not sh`re data

:55:45.:55:49.

between council tax records in the electoral legislation systel. That

:55:50.:55:55.

happens down and it has this benefit as well as protecting the d`ta from

:55:56.:55:59.

individuals. Has this in a world when we all put our things online on

:56:00.:56:04.

Facebook, photographs and all the rest of it. How do you see that we

:56:05.:56:10.

are going to move forward in this situation? Is it about setthng rules

:56:11.:56:15.

are changing our culture? You must have a system where people have

:56:16.:56:18.

absolute confidence that thdir data will be protected. That is why we

:56:19.:56:23.

have the data protection register and we should have a regime of no

:56:24.:56:25.

excuses and if you cannot organise your system so that you can protect

:56:26.:56:31.

the data then you should suffer the penalties or whatever. People should

:56:32.:56:34.

lose their jobs. Ultimately there must be some sort of sanction

:56:35.:56:40.

because otherwise it will e`t into the confidence with which pdople

:56:41.:56:43.

submit their data. If someone comes to me and they wanted me to act on

:56:44.:56:48.

their behalf or on behalf of the relative then I have 2 get `n

:56:49.:56:51.

authority from them before H am able to get any information. But people

:56:52.:56:58.

are finding that without giving any authority the information is being

:56:59.:57:07.

bandied around and as a restlt they are reluctant to give that

:57:08.:57:09.

information. Will people sed some of these examples in C, I am not

:57:10.:57:12.

handing that over? But people on social media are very happy to

:57:13.:57:18.

information away. Some people do, and some people are very careful.

:57:19.:57:23.

Roger said, do we love the system orders the system run us? Tdchnology

:57:24.:57:30.

is so powerful that we are caught up in it and so many organisathons

:57:31.:57:38.

depend so much on the high`tech solutions and we expect so luch more

:57:39.:57:40.

now and expect different parts of the council to speak to one another.

:57:41.:57:44.

And we expect the NHS and hdr daughter and the hospital and social

:57:45.:57:47.

services to share data to m`ke sure we are well. And so we expect some

:57:48.:57:52.

of this and then if things go wrong it is a real problem.

:57:53.:57:57.

Now the round`up of the polhtical week in the south.

:57:58.:58:08.

Material from Syria's chemical weapons will be off`loaded

:58:09.:59:47.

increase in the Lib Dems also know, we would not take it and cotld not

:59:48.:59:49.

have an increase in our allowances when we were sacking people and

:59:50.:59:53.

cutting services. You cannot do it and that is what we did. Th`t is the

:59:54.:59:58.

danger, if you are trying to keep pace, what time do you do it? I do

:59:59.:00:04.

not think that we need to h`ve councillors remunerated, fr`nkly.

:00:05.:00:10.

They should be volunteers? There should be a variety of people doing

:00:11.:00:17.

the job. GPs do not get paid and there is a great demand for it. I

:00:18.:00:24.

work five days per week solhd to do that and some people can afford to

:00:25.:00:27.

do that without getting a s`lary but it tends to be people who are on

:00:28.:00:30.

benefits or have private incomes or are retired. Everyone peopld who

:00:31.:00:34.

reflect society then we must pay them. I was paid 20,000 per year

:00:35.:00:39.

from running a ?500 million business and it is a five, six, seven day

:00:40.:00:46.

period job. But as a GP. Yot could leave it to the council offhcers,

:00:47.:00:52.

the executives paid a but they are not elected and they are civil

:00:53.:00:58.

servants. We are modelling tp the executive and nonexecutive role

:00:59.:01:02.

Councils should be nonexecutive Back to

:01:03.:01:12.

There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's

:01:13.:01:15.

European elections, not least who'll get the top job

:01:16.:01:17.

But behind the scenes the parties have

:01:18.:01:21.

also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that

:01:22.:01:24.

And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence

:01:25.:01:28.

Here's Adam to explain how it all works.

:01:29.:01:37.

If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,

:01:38.:01:43.

you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more

:01:44.:01:48.

money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the

:01:49.:01:53.

chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you

:01:54.:01:58.

need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,

:01:59.:02:02.

the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24

:02:03.:02:07.

of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a

:02:08.:02:10.

challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing -

:02:11.:02:14.

stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching

:02:15.:02:22.

his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already

:02:23.:02:28.

signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,

:02:29.:02:33.

and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was

:02:34.:02:41.

the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it

:02:42.:02:44.

leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the

:02:45.:02:48.

clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish

:02:49.:02:51.

Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their

:02:52.:02:53.

decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough

:02:54.:03:05.

MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.

:03:06.:03:10.

They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need

:03:11.:03:13.

another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting

:03:14.:03:16.

MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will

:03:17.:03:21.

get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is

:03:22.:03:25.

that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they

:03:26.:03:33.

have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.

:03:34.:03:38.

Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic

:03:39.:03:44.

party, which has put Mrs Merkel s nose out of joint, but we don't

:03:45.:03:47.

quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played

:03:48.:03:54.

his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he

:03:55.:04:02.

should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a

:04:03.:04:08.

major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead

:04:09.:04:14.

there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are

:04:15.:04:18.

supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of

:04:19.:04:23.

problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't

:04:24.:04:27.

there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly

:04:28.:04:32.

Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and

:04:33.:04:36.

Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and

:04:37.:04:43.

they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in

:04:44.:04:46.

Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole

:04:47.:04:50.

business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's

:04:51.:04:55.

support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading

:04:56.:05:00.

behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he

:05:01.:05:07.

doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he

:05:08.:05:11.

has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.

:05:12.:05:14.

That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't

:05:15.:05:21.

think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of

:05:22.:05:26.

the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming

:05:27.:05:29.

head of the European commission what chance do you have of

:05:30.:05:32.

repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs

:05:33.:05:39.

dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are

:05:40.:05:45.

too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country

:05:46.:05:47.

notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.

:05:48.:05:53.

Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side

:05:54.:05:59.

once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she

:06:00.:06:07.

tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got

:06:08.:06:11.

such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she

:06:12.:06:18.

had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but

:06:19.:06:26.

as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,

:06:27.:06:30.

he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks

:06:31.:06:38.

Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a

:06:39.:06:41.

power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron

:06:42.:06:44.

went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave

:06:45.:06:49.

the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in

:06:50.:06:55.

Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument

:06:56.:07:00.

that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural

:07:01.:07:02.

allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough

:07:03.:07:07.

Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.

:07:08.:07:16.

When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to

:07:17.:07:22.

have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,

:07:23.:07:26.

looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His

:07:27.:07:31.

strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of

:07:32.:07:37.

that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and

:07:38.:07:42.

dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's

:07:43.:07:46.

son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are

:07:47.:07:50.

particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and

:07:51.:07:56.

understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error

:07:57.:08:02.

and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to

:08:03.:08:04.

himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His

:08:05.:08:11.

advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.

:08:12.:08:21.

On this one, he called it wrong It's a sign of the rather the bridal

:08:22.:08:29.

state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in

:08:30.:08:32.

attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is

:08:33.:08:39.

at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.

:08:40.:08:45.

The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The

:08:46.:08:53.

mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying

:08:54.:08:58.

the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking

:08:59.:09:01.

and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the

:09:02.:09:07.

rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the

:09:08.:09:10.

juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.

:09:11.:09:16.

Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he

:09:17.:09:18.

doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he

:09:19.:09:22.

has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg

:09:23.:09:29.

posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread

:09:30.:09:32.

carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture

:09:33.:09:36.

that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full

:09:37.:09:39.

process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within

:09:40.:09:43.

his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen

:09:44.:09:46.

question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the

:09:47.:09:50.

day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as

:09:51.:09:56.

well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and

:09:57.:09:59.

you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be

:10:00.:10:04.

yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never

:10:05.:10:07.

works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed

:10:08.:10:13.

Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get

:10:14.:10:17.

involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than

:10:18.:10:21.

counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which

:10:22.:10:25.

was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by

:10:26.:10:31.

telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred

:10:32.:10:38.

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all

:10:39.:10:41.

the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,

:10:42.:10:45.

and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular

:10:46.:10:51.

brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet

:10:52.:10:55.

their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts

:10:56.:11:00.

like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to

:11:01.:11:04.

get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next

:11:05.:11:07.

week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing

:11:08.:11:11.

that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the

:11:12.:11:16.

European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is

:11:17.:11:21.

becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think

:11:22.:11:26.

entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.

:11:27.:11:30.

Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a

:11:31.:11:34.

big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to

:11:35.:11:39.

think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a

:11:40.:11:42.

convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love

:11:43.:11:49.

him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow

:11:50.:11:54.

chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends

:11:55.:11:57.

in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose I

:11:58.:12:01.

don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an

:12:02.:12:04.

admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the

:12:05.:12:07.

preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine

:12:08.:12:11.

months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations

:12:12.:12:16.

between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed

:12:17.:12:20.

Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in

:12:21.:12:23.

between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say

:12:24.:12:28.

that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed

:12:29.:12:31.

him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things

:12:32.:12:37.

obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue

:12:38.:12:43.

Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new

:12:44.:12:47.

Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the

:12:48.:12:51.

attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will

:12:52.:12:56.

get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on

:12:57.:13:01.

business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.

:13:02.:13:04.

On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,

:13:05.:13:09.

we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush

:13:10.:13:10.

you. We are running out of time The Daily Politics will be back

:13:11.:13:12.

every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday

:13:13.:13:16.

when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions

:13:17.:13:19.

secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:20.:13:21.

it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base

:13:22.:13:53.

of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece

:13:54.:13:59.

of breathtaking arrogance. You get a sense of the people

:14:00.:14:05.

who made the palaces. as I unlock the secrets

:14:06.:14:13.

of Britain's great palaces.

:14:14.:14:16.

Andrew Neil and Peter Henley with the latest political news, interviews and debate. James Rubin, Mark Malloch-Brown and Bayan Rahman discuss the crisis in Iraq. Jackie Baillie from Better Together and Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland debate the nature of the Scottish independence campaign.


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