23/10/2016 Sunday Politics South


23/10/2016

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There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next

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leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,

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This man might have something to say about that.

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Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.

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So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?

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The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane

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on the country's second city which has been in the hands of

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But what will be the fallout from this key clash?

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In the south, 11 of the candidates in the Witney by-election

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when they have so little hope of winning?

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world. Should all private landlords be licensed to help tackle the

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squalor? And with me - as always -

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the best and the brightest political panel in the business: Toby Young,

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Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn - The last leader was in the job

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a mere 18 days before she decided The favourite to succeed her then

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quit the party after a now infamous Ukip's biggest donor says the party

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is at "breaking point". This morning, the former

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Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans, announced that she would be

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running for the leadership. I've thought long and hard

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about this leadership bid, and one of the reasons I've perhaps

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delayed announcing it is because I wanted to be absolutely

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sure that I had the support And I can confirm that I have

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more than enough signatures on the nomination form already

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to be able to go forward. Let's not forget that 3,000 people

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signed a petition in support of me I know head office was besieged

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with letters in support. I would not be doing this

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if I didn't have the backing of our members, because our members

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are the most important Well, Paul Nuttall was

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Nigel Farage's deputy for many years and plenty of people saw him

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as a leader-in-waiting. Let's ask the man himself -

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Paul Nuttall joins me now. Yes. I've made the decision that I'm

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going to put my name forward to be the next leader of Ukip. I have huge

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support across the country, not only amongst people at the top of the

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party in Westminster and with the MEPs, but also the grassroots. I

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want to be the unity candidate. Ukip needs to come together. I'm not

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going to gild the lily. Ukip is looking over a political cliff at

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the moment. It will either step four step back, and I want to tell us to

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step backwards. You say it faces an ex-distension or threat, which means

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it's possible it has no future at all. Students of political history

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know that political parties take a long time to get going. They can

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disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is facing an existential crisis. What

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happened over the summer has put us on a... We could be on a spiral that

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we can't get off. But I believe I am the man to bring the factions

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together, to create unity within the party, and to build on the structure

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and get us ready for the common challenges. Why didn't you stand

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last time? Because I have spent the last four or five years of my life

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travelling around the country. I have done more Ukip meetings than

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anybody else, spending a lot of time away from home. With Brexit, I felt

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that my job and Nigel's job was done and we could hand over to the next

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generation. That doesn't seem to be the case, and maybe it's time for

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someone who is an old hand. I'm very experienced and I know the party

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inside out. Maybe it's time to step in and bring the party together You

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told the Liverpool Echo on the night of July that you didn't wish to take

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on Nigel Farage, you didn't want that to happen to your family and

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friends. What has changed? The party is facing an existential crisis and

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I want to make sure that Ukip is on the pitch to keep the ball into the

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open net we have in politics. We have a Conservative Party who is

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moving toward Brexit, but we have to be there too. Why would you be

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better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne would be an excellent candidate I

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thought the 2015 manifesto was the best out of all the political

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parties. I would be the best candidate because of my experience.

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I am not part of any faction within the party. Is she? I get on well

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with everybody, and I believe I could be the man to bring the party

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together. Do you get on with Iain Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is

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supporting one of your rivals? Yes, I get on well with him. He is able

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to choose whoever he wants to be the next leader of the party. After

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November 28, the leadership election, we all say, the past the

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past. It becomes Daisy row for the new leader. We forget all that has

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before and move on. You won the referendum. Mrs May is adopting some

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of your policies, like grammar schools. What is the point of Ukip

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these days? Twofold. We don't have Brexit. Mrs May said she would not

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invoke Article 50 until the end of March, and we don't know if that

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will happen. We need to ensure a strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit

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really does mean Brexit. We have a huge opportunity in working class

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communities where the Labour Party no longer represents them. I believe

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Ukip can become the voice of working people. If you were the leader,

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would Ukip be a bigger threat to Labour in the north or the Tories in

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the South? You save Labour in the north, and people often to make that

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mistake. There's working class communities right across the country

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is. There are working-class communities in Bristol just

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as in Newcastle. We are second in a number of northern seats, and

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southern seats as well, and I believe the party can move into

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these communities. It can only do so if Ukip is on the pitch, and I

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intend to make sure that's the case. I don't think we have portrayed a

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good image over the summer. Is that called British understatement? A

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bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have

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to build a strong national Executive Committee. We need to ensure our

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branches are ready for the fight and concentrate on local elections. I've

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got the experience. I'm now throwing my hat into the ring, and I'm the

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only person who can keep Ukip in the game. What role would you give Nigel

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Farage, if any? I will be the candidate of compromise. I would see

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what Nigel wanted to do. Would you keep in the leader of the freedom

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and democracy group in the European Parliament? There would have to be

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compromise on both sides, and we would need to talk about it. I don't

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know what Nigel wants to do. Do you think his support, his association

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with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win female votes in this country?

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Personally, I would not have gone out and campaigned or said anything

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about Donald Trump, but I don't think Ukip has come out and backed

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Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I wouldn't have even spoken about the

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American election, because I think the two candidates are quite

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appalling. Some up for us. If you win, what would be the hallmark of

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your Ukip leadership? The first couple of months would be ensuring

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that Ukip unifies. Saying no to factions, bringing people together.

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Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can

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move forward. If we don't unify Ukip will not be around for much

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longer. Thanks for being with us this morning.

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We won't have to wait too long to find out who Ukip's

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new leader will be - the winner will be announced

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Who would be the best leader for Ukip? I think the difference between

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the field a few weeks ago and today is that this field is a lot

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stronger. Whether it's Paul or Suzanne, I think... It is hard to

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say, with Aaron Banks and apparently Nigel Farage hacking another

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candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip to be a strong force in British

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politics. I think the fact there is a stronger field now is good news

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for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst nightmare in the north of England?

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It is. I think the personality difference and presentational

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difference is interesting. Suzanne Evans is going for the Conservative

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county vote. There's a lot to be taken there by Ukip. He would

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probably be more appealing to the Labour vote. It is interesting. At

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the moment, pollsters say that the Ukip vote splits pretty easily

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between Labour and Tory. But things always collapse. When they have made

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inroads into Tower Hamlets and Barking, they collapse, because they

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fight amongst each other so much. But not always with fists! Does Ukip

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have a future? And who would best secure that future? It does for at

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least two years, until we Brexit. We have to believe that that will

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happen. That was an impressive pitch there from Paul, certainly as the

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unity candidate, after the car crash we have seen on TV screens this

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morning. But it doesn't go beyond May 20 19. What then? There is no

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point being called the United Kingdom Independence party any

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longer. What will happen after May 2019? If you want to hoover up votes

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of the back of Brexit, you need to start looking further ahead than two

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years. The person who wins that leadership contest is the person who

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will sum that up the best. We shall see.

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In June 2014, the group which calls itself the Islamic State in Iraq

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and the Levant captured Iraq's second city, Mosul.

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Later that month the group announced it was establishing a 'caliphate',

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or an Islamic state, on the territories it

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This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided by Iranian-backed Shia fighters

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Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air support, began the assault

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Then they spot a truck bomb from so-called Islamic State.

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They destroy it before it destroys them.

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These are the first steps in the battle for Mosul,

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the Northern Iraqi city IS has made its stronghold since 2014.

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Controlling the city of around 2 million people means

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that they established governance, they establish a territorial base.

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This is what has obsessed everyone, because with a territorial base

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you are capable of doing more than if you are simply an insurgency

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movement in the fabric of another society.

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It's being billed as the biggest military operation in Iraq

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since the war in 2003, the biggest moment in the international effort

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Here is how the various forces are approaching the city.

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Heading to Mosul from the south the elite troops of the Iraqi army.

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Known as the Golden division, trained and accompanied

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From the North, a force made up of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga,

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Also from the South, a militia made up of Shia fighters

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who have been accused of human rights abuses.

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British planes have bombed outlying villages, reportedly guided

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in by British personnel on the ground.

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To the North West, a corridor has been left for some

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of the 3000 plus IS fighters, in theory an escape route

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which could limit the bloodshed when fighting starts in the city.

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We've had 4-5 days of battle and it's taking place

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in the outlying villages and there have been some

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successes and some failures, but the momentum is building.

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And the real question will be when the attackers get

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towards the city itself, how strong are the defences?

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It will crack but it might crack within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks.

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IS has fought back, on Friday they attack sites

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in the city of Kirkuk, including a power station.

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The United Nations believes hundreds of thousands of families

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have been rounded up as potential human shields.

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The battle could be bloody, but what about when it's over?

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The Shia militias, the Iraqi army, the Peshmerga guerrillas,

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some of the Turkish elements, they all want a share of the action.

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They are in Mosul, not for altruistic reasons.

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They are there because they want to be part of whatever happens next.

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The biggest issue is how the Sunni majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia

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militias which have helped to liberate them.

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ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis Humphrey went to Mosul

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If it all seems like something from the archive, when the Middle

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East went up in flames and was then carved up,

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it is because that is what is happening in Iraq right now.

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National identity has been cut across by other identities such

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And that means that putting together a so-called nation state again

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Almost certainly there will be a new form of Kurdish state,

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almost certainly in northern Iraq at the end of this crisis,

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and what is happening in Mosul is a microcosm of what is happening

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elsewhere across the Levant which is that it is melting down.

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Big questions, questions that come after the battle.

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The coalition forces are advancing but this is just the beginning.

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I'm joined now by the International Development Minister Rory Stewart.

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In a former life he was the coalition Deputy-Governor of two

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provinces in Southern Iraq following the Iraq intervention of 2003.

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Is there any doubt that at some stage Mosul will fall to the forces

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of Iraq and its allies? The first thing is that war is very uncertain

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and there are cliches about it being the graveyard of predictions and we

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don't want to make confident predictions but the basic structure

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is that there are 30,000 Iraqi forces outside and only a few

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thousand Daesh fighters inside and I would say it is overwhelmingly

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likely that the batter will one STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the

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Iraqi forces. June 2014 was a great success, they

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took a city of over in people and they created what they tried to

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create a million state of 7 million people, stretching across the Iraqi

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Syrian border, but since then they have lost territory quite rapidly.

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Now they are losing the outskirts of Mosul, and that is a fundamental

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blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is

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what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that

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will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary

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Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi

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forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of

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Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which

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is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we

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want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.

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Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the

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border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of

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that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the

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coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is

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likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street

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to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we

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doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is

:18:39.:18:43.

very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone

:18:44.:18:47.

into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps

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around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, 40

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million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms

:19:04.:19:07.

of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response

:19:08.:19:14.

budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we

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are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is

:19:18.:19:22.

that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this

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assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You

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are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning

:19:33.:19:36.

since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --

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planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the

:19:42.:19:45.

appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we

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need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in

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place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is

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continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.

:19:57.:20:00.

The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big

:20:01.:20:04.

exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist

:20:05.:20:10.

magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a

:20:11.:20:15.

unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios it

:20:16.:20:19.

could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out

:20:20.:20:21.

of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is

:20:22.:20:27.

very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and

:20:28.:20:30.

keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring

:20:31.:20:34.

them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been

:20:35.:20:38.

working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we

:20:39.:20:42.

have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have

:20:43.:20:48.

worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their

:20:49.:20:52.

structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have

:20:53.:20:55.

done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the

:20:56.:21:00.

British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming

:21:01.:21:06.

that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt

:21:07.:21:12.

with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be

:21:13.:21:17.

crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need

:21:18.:21:23.

to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as

:21:24.:21:28.

bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by

:21:29.:21:32.

the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is

:21:33.:21:39.

that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they

:21:40.:21:42.

have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is

:21:43.:21:48.

stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making

:21:49.:21:53.

sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is

:21:54.:21:57.

making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK s

:21:58.:22:02.

response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that

:22:03.:22:07.

is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the

:22:08.:22:12.

front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to

:22:13.:22:16.

make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that

:22:17.:22:20.

population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing

:22:21.:22:27.

territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we

:22:28.:22:32.

think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part

:22:33.:22:38.

of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult

:22:39.:22:42.

across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United

:22:43.:22:48.

Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real

:22:49.:22:54.

danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last

:22:55.:22:58.

five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop

:22:59.:23:04.

often it does unexpected things In 2009 its predecessor had been

:23:05.:23:09.

largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it

:23:10.:23:13.

went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it

:23:14.:23:17.

holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it

:23:18.:23:20.

gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else

:23:21.:23:24.

and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They

:23:25.:23:29.

say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a

:23:30.:23:35.

big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we

:23:36.:23:37.

keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say --

:23:38.:23:49.

safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in

:23:50.:23:52.

Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen

:23:53.:23:59.

in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the

:24:00.:24:02.

conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much

:24:03.:24:05.

energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the

:24:06.:24:10.

humanitarian response in place - put so much energy. People will want

:24:11.:24:15.

to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to

:24:16.:24:17.

make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking

:24:18.:24:22.

after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they

:24:23.:24:25.

have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why

:24:26.:24:31.

our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals

:24:32.:24:34.

with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.

:24:35.:24:42.

I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.

:24:43.:24:49.

Does Labour support British participation in this offensive We

:24:50.:25:00.

fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important

:25:01.:25:05.

move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the

:25:06.:25:10.

government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State

:25:11.:25:14.

this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF

:25:15.:25:20.

pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces

:25:21.:25:24.

on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if

:25:25.:25:29.

you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your

:25:30.:25:36.

leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.

:25:37.:25:38.

What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi

:25:39.:25:40.

government, and currently supported by the British government.

:25:41.:25:42.

I did not support it when it came up.

:25:43.:25:44.

Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most

:25:45.:25:48.

of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we

:25:49.:25:51.

He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been

:25:52.:26:00.

very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have

:26:01.:26:04.

learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt

:26:05.:26:09.

sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the

:26:10.:26:13.

aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was

:26:14.:26:19.

from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told

:26:20.:26:26.

the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air

:26:27.:26:30.

strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in

:26:31.:26:34.

Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face

:26:35.:26:37.

the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.

:26:38.:26:42.

We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it

:26:43.:26:49.

is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic

:26:50.:26:54.

State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is

:26:55.:26:58.

he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the

:26:59.:27:04.

past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,

:27:05.:27:08.

both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also

:27:09.:27:10.

in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you

:27:11.:27:16.

mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress

:27:17.:27:20.

with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do

:27:21.:27:26.

you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to

:27:27.:27:37.

read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the

:27:38.:27:46.

car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems

:27:47.:27:54.

they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to

:27:55.:27:59.

pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have

:28:00.:28:02.

become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer

:28:03.:28:07.

interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to

:28:08.:28:13.

the renewal of Trident? It will We made that commitment in 2007, that

:28:14.:28:17.

is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies

:28:18.:28:20.

and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken

:28:21.:28:25.

democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference

:28:26.:28:28.

and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy

:28:29.:28:37.

Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,

:28:38.:28:40.

but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the

:28:41.:28:43.

international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very

:28:44.:28:50.

clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the

:28:51.:28:54.

next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of

:28:55.:28:59.

Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a

:29:00.:29:02.

very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are

:29:03.:29:07.

reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can t

:29:08.:29:14.

change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues

:29:15.:29:17.

related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can t

:29:18.:29:25.

change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to

:29:26.:29:29.

Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It

:29:30.:29:33.

is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato

:29:34.:29:36.

allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not

:29:37.:29:41.

let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the

:29:42.:29:44.

way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be

:29:45.:29:49.

taking them to international court over this, but we should also be

:29:50.:29:54.

strengthening sanctions, somewhat imposed over Ukraine. We try to do

:29:55.:29:59.

that, but the Italians wouldn't let us. The Italians did not want to

:30:00.:30:04.

participate in the European initiative but that doesn't stop

:30:05.:30:08.

individual countries for the Britain should step up? Yes, we should look

:30:09.:30:14.

at what is practical to impose. Thanks for joining us.

:30:15.:30:19.

Mosul is not the only major battle being waged in the Middle East.

:30:20.:30:22.

The city of Aleppo in northern Syria has seen some of the heaviest

:30:23.:30:26.

bombardment since Syria's five-year-long civil war began.

:30:27.:30:29.

This week Russian warships, in a deliberate show of power,

:30:30.:30:32.

sailed west through the English channel en route to Syria.

:30:33.:30:36.

Nato says it's Russia's "largest surface deployment" since the end

:30:37.:30:39.

of the Cold War in what is thought to be preparation

:30:40.:30:42.

for a final assault on the besieged city of Aleppo.

:30:43.:30:46.

In the city itself fighting resumed overnight -

:30:47.:30:50.

following a 3-day ceasefire - with more air strikes and heavy

:30:51.:30:55.

clashes in the city's rebel-held eastern districts.

:30:56.:30:58.

Almost 500 people have been killed and 2,000 injured

:30:59.:31:01.

since Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes,

:31:02.:31:05.

This week Theresa May condemned Vladimir Putin's involvement

:31:06.:31:12.

in Syria, accusing Moscow of being behind "sickening

:31:13.:31:15.

atrocities" in support of President Assad's regime.

:31:16.:31:18.

But European leaders are divided on how to respond and,

:31:19.:31:22.

with the United States preoccupied with domestic politics,

:31:23.:31:25.

President Putin senses this is his moment to bring the Syrian

:31:26.:31:29.

I'm joined now by the BBC's former Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent,

:31:30.:31:37.

Bridget Kendall, who is now Master of Peterhouse College in Cambridge.

:31:38.:31:45.

Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC studio again. Let me put up this

:31:46.:31:53.

satellite image of Aleppo here, to get an idea of the scale. It was the

:31:54.:32:00.

biggest city in Syria. It was the commercial capital and a huge

:32:01.:32:05.

cultural hub as well. Almost the New York of Syria, to give you an idea

:32:06.:32:09.

of its significance to the country. Let me show you now how it's been

:32:10.:32:15.

divided. The rebels are now in control of the eastern part, about

:32:16.:32:23.

eight miles long and three miles wide there, they're in purple. They

:32:24.:32:25.

are under great attacks still. Is it inevitable that that purple part

:32:26.:32:33.

falls to the regime? That is what President as Saad, the Russians and

:32:34.:32:38.

the Iranians hope. The fierce bombardments we have seen is part of

:32:39.:32:45.

that. I'm reminded very much in the Russian tactics of what happened in

:32:46.:32:51.

grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when the Russians said, a warning for all

:32:52.:32:56.

civilians to lead, and then they went ahead and they basically raised

:32:57.:33:01.

it to the ground. They are talking about Al Nusrah as being one of the

:33:02.:33:05.

rebel groups. They got rid of all of the terrorists. They talk about it

:33:06.:33:10.

being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The purpose of going in is to get rid of

:33:11.:33:15.

them. You get the civilians out and then you take it. But this isn't

:33:16.:33:20.

like Chechnya. It is much more complex. We have seen an attempt to

:33:21.:33:24.

take Aleppo before, and then there was a rebel counter offensive. It's

:33:25.:33:29.

not so certain. And there are so many different parties involved We

:33:30.:33:33.

have seen the alarm in the west of the extent of the civilian

:33:34.:33:37.

casualties. There have been rumblings in the west of, shouldn't

:33:38.:33:46.

the United States do something? Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air

:33:47.:33:49.

force? This Russian aircraft carrier steaming its way towards the Eastern

:33:50.:33:52.

Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture, both to its own people, but also to

:33:53.:34:00.

the West, to say, don't get involved in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try

:34:01.:34:06.

and stop us because we could up the ante. They have not been great

:34:07.:34:10.

visual pictures, because the aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped

:34:11.:34:16.

out, belching out smoke! If the rebel controlled area does fall it

:34:17.:34:23.

would be seen as a great victory for President as Saad and his Russian

:34:24.:34:27.

allies. What is the aim of Russia here? What would they then do, if

:34:28.:34:32.

Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan that President Putin set out in his

:34:33.:34:37.

UN speech in 2014, before Russia went into Syria. The aim is to put

:34:38.:34:42.

President Assad back in charge. President Putin said this weekend

:34:43.:34:47.

that either is Assad in Damascus, or its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in

:34:48.:34:52.

between. They want to eliminate the argument for a moderate opposition.

:34:53.:34:57.

They want to make it plain that the only way to get a stable Syria is to

:34:58.:35:05.

have Assad back in charge. Even sue argue for a rump steak lit, leaving

:35:06.:35:14.

aside what is happening with IAS. They have already said they want to

:35:15.:35:18.

have an enlarged military presence at their bases. And they have a big

:35:19.:35:24.

naval base. It is. It is a chance to push for this when he sees the West

:35:25.:35:29.

is being distracted and divided Europe and America, by elections and

:35:30.:35:37.

so on. Just before the US elections. The Americans are worried about

:35:38.:35:41.

that, Europeans are being distracted by Brexit. He can push to his

:35:42.:35:46.

maximum advantage now, before there is a new US president. If they do

:35:47.:35:54.

take that part of Aleppo, and that part of northern Syria, does Mr

:35:55.:36:03.

Putin want us to recognise, to admit, that that is now his sphere

:36:04.:36:08.

of influence? I think the rhetoric from the Russians is that they want

:36:09.:36:12.

the West to recognise that they are an equal powerful partner. It's not

:36:13.:36:17.

just the US that runs the writ in the Middle East. Russia is as

:36:18.:36:22.

important as it is. It is engaging with Saudi Arabia and has mended

:36:23.:36:27.

fences with Turkey. Syria is the place from which it can launch its

:36:28.:36:34.

message that it is a big player in the Middle East. Russia wants the

:36:35.:36:39.

West to understand that this isn't a country that was dismembered after

:36:40.:36:42.

the end of the Soviet Union and is now a week. It is back, and it is

:36:43.:36:47.

strong. That is an important message. Looking at the economy It

:36:48.:36:54.

is in recession. GDP has been falling, partly because of the price

:36:55.:36:59.

of oil. It is highly dependent on hydrocarbons, and is expected to

:37:00.:37:04.

fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how

:37:05.:37:09.

small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It

:37:10.:37:16.

is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years

:37:17.:37:24.

ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?

:37:25.:37:29.

A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a

:37:30.:37:35.

price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting

:37:36.:37:40.

the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which

:37:41.:37:46.

is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and

:37:47.:37:51.

dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.

:37:52.:37:58.

But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are

:37:59.:38:03.

supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2 17,

:38:04.:38:07.

because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for

:38:08.:38:12.

the Russian people. Thank you very much.

:38:13.:38:14.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:38:15.:38:27.

Welcome to Sunday Politics South, my name's Peter Henley.

:38:28.:38:29.

On today's show, why stand in a by-election

:38:30.:38:31.

when you know you have no chance of winning?

:38:32.:38:36.

We'll be winning some of thd people who did just that

:38:37.:38:39.

parties are the glory of Brhtish democracy or a sign that thd bigger

:38:40.:38:44.

First, let's meet the two politicians who are going to be here

:38:45.:38:51.

George Hollingbery is the Conservative MP

:38:52.:38:57.

Paul Harvey is the leader of the Labour

:38:58.:39:02.

Cast your mind back to the Conservative party conference

:39:03.:39:09.

and we heard this tough talk from the prime

:39:10.:39:11.

Something else we need to do, take big, sometimes even

:39:12.:39:15.

controversial decisions abott our country's infrastructure because we

:39:16.:39:17.

need to get Britain firing in all areas again.

:39:18.:39:19.

One of those big infrastructure projects that she

:39:20.:39:23.

went on to mention specific`lly was the new runway in the south,east of

:39:24.:39:26.

The decision which has been postponed on an almost weekly basis

:39:27.:39:34.

and now we're told the government's preference between Heathrow and

:39:35.:39:36.

Gatwick will be announced ndxt week, probably Tuesday, but parli`ment

:39:37.:39:39.

might not get to vote for another year.

:39:40.:39:40.

continuity of ducking the dhsused because this is how it has been

:39:41.:39:45.

It will be portrayed anyway anyone wishes to portray it.

:39:46.:40:00.

This is a process that has gone on for some

:40:01.:40:06.

People have been ducking thhs one for 40 years and it's begun

:40:07.:40:33.

to hurt and it is absolutelx the time to make that decishon.

:40:34.:40:36.

Now, the procedure was laid out by the Prime

:40:37.:40:38.

Minister in the house, only on weapon state,

:40:39.:40:40.

at Prime minister's questions and it's very

:40:41.:40:42.

The vote of MPs won't be until next winter.

:40:43.:40:46.

The process would have been exactly the same whether

:40:47.:40:48.

Whilst the infrastructure commission looked at this, policies were

:40:49.:40:52.

developed, MPs get a vote at the end of it.

:40:53.:40:54.

This is about political sensitivities, not just planning

:40:55.:40:56.

This is about containing Boris Johnson.

:40:57.:40:59.

There's the letter from the Prime Minister

:41:00.:41:04.

to all the ministers with this odd arrangement where collectivd

:41:05.:41:08.

responsibility is suspended for a few weeks, we don't know ex`ctly how

:41:09.:41:11.

Then they have to be quiet, if they have some track record of

:41:12.:41:16.

These are Cabinet ministers who have constituencies

:41:17.:41:18.

There is no discussion, discussion about them

:41:19.:41:22.

having special rights to argue with the infrastructure comlission.

:41:23.:41:24.

They have two have had a position on this

:41:25.:41:27.

They can retell that position to the commission.

:41:28.:41:29.

Other than that, it's a perfectly sensible

:41:30.:41:31.

and rational arrangement to allow them to have represent their

:41:32.:41:33.

constituents who are going to be profoundly affected by this

:41:34.:41:36.

Not forgetting that the dechsion is on the Davis commission

:41:37.:41:39.

recommendations which are before the Cabinet

:41:40.:41:41.

I must just reemphasise, this year which we

:41:42.:41:44.

are now looking at would have happened under any scenario.

:41:45.:41:46.

It is laid down in law that this has to be

:41:47.:41:49.

consulted upon and then acthoned by the commission and then xou can

:41:50.:41:52.

And there may well be judicial reviews and it is

:41:53.:41:57.

really difficult but is it political?

:41:58.:41:58.

There was a by-election this week and you don't want sack

:41:59.:42:01.

There was a by-election this week and you don't want -- Zac

:42:02.:42:04.

Goldsmith resigning in Richlond over the issue of Heathrow creathng

:42:05.:42:06.

another by-election, creating another vote.

:42:07.:42:08.

The truth of the matter is, on these infrastructure issues, as bhg as

:42:09.:42:10.

this is for both Gatwick and Heathrow, for those comlunities

:42:11.:42:13.

affected and constantly livhng with this and for the business community

:42:14.:42:15.

that is desperate for a decision to be made

:42:16.:42:17.

so that we can deal with the

:42:18.:42:19.

issues presented by both options, there has to be a proper discussion,

:42:20.:42:22.

there has to be a vote and there has to be a decision made.

:42:23.:42:25.

Somebody, somewhere, has to make the responsibility for this huge

:42:26.:42:28.

It's not good for the image of politics.

:42:29.:42:34.

That is entirely down to thd Cabinet committee on Tuesday.

:42:35.:42:41.

Somebody who is involved even a tiny bit in this

:42:42.:42:48.

is a member of Parliament shouldn't takd risks

:42:49.:42:50.

There is a clear decision to be made by the Cabinet

:42:51.:42:54.

committee and the decision has not been made.

:42:55.:42:56.

The letter says that ministers who are opposed are

:42:57.:43:00.

Well, there are no ministers opposed, to Gatwick, who expressed a

:43:01.:43:05.

It only applies to Boris Johnson and Justine Greening.

:43:06.:43:11.

We're talking here about process and whether it's the right

:43:12.:43:13.

Whether we should build airport capacity.

:43:14.:43:16.

Those particular Cabinet ministers, if it turns out to be a

:43:17.:43:19.

Heathrow decision, are going to need to be able to...

:43:20.:43:22.

You've just got to make surd that the rules are there

:43:23.:43:24.

so that everyone knows when that decision is taken exactly what

:43:25.:43:27.

The fact is, within a year, we are going to know exactlx where

:43:28.:43:31.

we're going whatever decision is made.

:43:32.:43:33.

Where it is going to be built, when, and over what period.

:43:34.:43:36.

That is a huge change from last 40 years.

:43:37.:43:38.

Not quite know ifs, no buts but we will be

:43:39.:43:40.

getting their next week. We hope.

:43:41.:43:42.

So, the Witney by-election to replace former Prime Ministdr David

:43:43.:43:44.

The probably unsurprising fact is that the Tories

:43:45.:43:48.

held on, although with a majority slashed from 25,000 to 5000.

:43:49.:43:50.

Perhaps surprising is that the Liberal

:43:51.:43:52.

Increasing their share of the vote by 23%.

:43:53.:43:58.

Joining us from our Oxfordshire studio is the party's one rdmaining

:43:59.:44:01.

MEP, I always say this, don't I, Catherine?

:44:02.:44:03.

Basically, you're back to where you were before

:44:04.:44:13.

the Prime Minister held this seat, plus a few extra

:44:14.:44:18.

for all the trees you cut down to make all

:44:19.:44:21.

This was a huge boost for the Lib Dems.

:44:22.:44:25.

A 20% gain in the vote, where we were fourth placed

:44:26.:44:28.

This was the Conservatives' tenth most safe seat and

:44:29.:44:36.

You know, we've had hundreds of volunteers coming across

:44:37.:44:41.

the country to help us out here in Witney and it was a great result

:44:42.:44:45.

But it wasn't a referendum on Brexit, which

:44:46.:44:50.

is how it is being spun now over the weekend, isn't it?

:44:51.:44:53.

There's lots of Remainers and then it just became

:44:54.:44:59.

Well, it's a about all sorts of issues, national issues

:45:00.:45:04.

Liz has been campaigning to save a health centre,

:45:05.:45:10.

it's about jobs, trade, of course, it's about Brexit which goes through

:45:11.:45:13.

Do you really believe that the people who pushed xou into

:45:14.:45:17.

that second place were saying, we don't want to leave the DU.

:45:18.:45:20.

We don't want the Conservathves we don't want Labour.

:45:21.:45:22.

Now, the official opposition didn't increase their vote `t all.

:45:23.:45:29.

This is Her Majesty's official opposition.

:45:30.:45:35.

They should be the ones challenging the government,

:45:36.:45:37.

nearly mid-term. And they didn't.

:45:38.:45:43.

We actually had a really bad general election last time and we

:45:44.:45:46.

But this result on Thursday night shows that

:45:47.:45:50.

We are winning council by-elections up and

:45:51.:45:55.

We still stand for the free, open and tolerant country.

:45:56.:46:02.

We are pro-European party so whatever people vote for

:46:03.:46:06.

Do you think that the speaker should give you

:46:07.:46:13.

It would be nice if we got our due deserves.

:46:14.:46:20.

They keep asking why we are not more on the

:46:21.:46:26.

media and why don't we get called more in the House of Commons.

:46:27.:46:29.

That's not something I can deal with but,

:46:30.:46:32.

perhaps, this will send a mdssage to all those who report polhtical

:46:33.:46:35.

parties, the Lib Dems are still here.

:46:36.:46:39.

We are a serious political party we stand for many thousands

:46:40.:46:43.

of people up and down the country, including those people in Whtney.

:46:44.:46:50.

Paul Harvey, do they have backing as the opposition?

:46:51.:46:53.

The truth of the opposition is that the Labour vote

:46:54.:46:55.

In Witney, we have tremendotsly good councillors.

:46:56.:47:03.

Labour councillors on west Oxfordshire district Council

:47:04.:47:04.

are doing an awful lot of work for those communities.

:47:05.:47:07.

Duncan Enright has been there 20 years.

:47:08.:47:08.

Ad excellent local candidatd that meant a lot of

:47:09.:47:13.

Laura Price, our local county council there.

:47:14.:47:18.

Where we have Labour councillors in these constituencies,

:47:19.:47:19.

The Labour vote came out in those areas.

:47:20.:47:36.

There was a high-profile Grden debate, Larry Sanders, brother of

:47:37.:47:38.

Altogether, you split the vote between the three of you.

:47:39.:47:42.

The truth of the matter is, the Liberal

:47:43.:47:45.

They used to boast about taking the seats.

:47:46.:47:48.

The Conservatives also lost a significant amount of the vote,

:47:49.:47:52.

There is a truth in this matter for all three parties.

:47:53.:47:56.

You probably picked up some Ukip votes.

:47:57.:47:58.

You've run half of the by-election campaigns in

:47:59.:48:04.

You've got to look at percentages because

:48:05.:48:11.

Not a bad turn out for a by-election.

:48:12.:48:17.

Not bad. 45% of the vote.

:48:18.:48:19.

It's where Douglas Hurd started it's where David Cameron

:48:20.:48:21.

A brand-new local candidate, he started at exactly

:48:22.:48:24.

45%. The Liberals scored 30%.

:48:25.:48:27.

So, is there much to see here? Not a lot.

:48:28.:48:30.

Let me just say that anybodx who says that the Liberals

:48:31.:48:32.

didn't do pretty well there is talking through thdir head.

:48:33.:48:35.

Jeremy Corbyn's Labour did well, didn't they?

:48:36.:48:37.

Labour Party has faced nationally at the moment, I think it w`s a

:48:38.:48:43.

reasonably creditable performance for them to.

:48:44.:48:44.

Vea no one can say the Liberals didn't do reasonably well.

:48:45.:48:48.

They did. They fought incredibly hard.

:48:49.:48:53.

The fact is, the Conservative party still won that seat very easily

:48:54.:48:56.

The idea that it is not a s`fe seat still, all I can say is

:48:57.:49:01.

I'd love their targeting strategy to maintain that illusion.

:49:02.:49:04.

So, you're going to go for all the safe seats

:49:05.:49:06.

We've just been talking about Heathrow.

:49:07.:49:09.

If Heathrow gets the go-ahe`d, then there's going to be Richmond Park.

:49:10.:49:11.

It's a warm up for Richmond, isn't it?

:49:12.:49:15.

It used to be a Lib Dem seat, now, you know, whether that's why

:49:16.:49:18.

But the Lib Dems haven't gone away. We are still here.

:49:19.:49:25.

We are still working hard for the people of this country.

:49:26.:49:28.

You're going to be worried about that.

:49:29.:49:31.

You must be doing work already in Richmond?

:49:32.:49:35.

Who knows if it's going to be Heathrow or Gatwick?

:49:36.:49:37.

You know so little. Anyway...

:49:38.:49:40.

Now, there were 14 candidatds standing in Witney.

:49:41.:49:43.

Why do people from smaller political parties put themselves forw`rd?

:49:44.:49:52.

Our reporter spent some timd in Witney during the campaign

:49:53.:49:54.

The HS2 project is the wrong project.

:49:55.:50:08.

Many people feel their vote doesn't count.

:50:09.:50:10.

These are just a handful of the candidates that stood

:50:11.:50:17.

Usually, elections are dominated by the big parties.

:50:18.:50:24.

The swing between them, the shock losses,

:50:25.:50:25.

But, behind all that, are the smaller

:50:26.:50:29.

parties and the independent candidates who are going out

:50:30.:50:33.

But with our first past the post system, is it all a bit hopdless?

:50:34.:50:43.

I love having outsiders in, it shows Witney people have got

:50:44.:50:46.

they've not got a hope of getting in.

:50:47.:50:51.

I think if they want to stand, if they have a cause, then H don't

:50:52.:50:55.

There's no point because thdy won't ever get elected.

:50:56.:51:02.

Yes, definitely. People should have their sax.

:51:03.:51:04.

It is a democracy. That's what it's for.

:51:05.:51:06.

One such candidate who is using his democratic

:51:07.:51:12.

right is based here, a caravan park just outside

:51:13.:51:15.

Frankie! Welcome to the eccentric party.

:51:16.:51:22.

Lord Toby Jug is now the leader of the eccentric

:51:23.:51:26.

party of Great Britain after he defected from the monster raving

:51:27.:51:29.

He stood in five general elections and over 30 local

:51:30.:51:32.

It's important because, at the end of the day, it's our

:51:33.:51:36.

We are the only country that actually

:51:37.:51:40.

allows that and a lot of fringe candidates stand.

:51:41.:51:42.

It's not a case of winning, it's a case of putting your

:51:43.:51:45.

V eccentric party of Great Britain has unique policies. All swhmming

:51:46.:51:58.

pools will be drained once ` week for nonswimmers. They want taller

:51:59.:52:03.

buildings for higher educathons But he says he has serious reasons for

:52:04.:52:08.

campaigning. We want to makd sure that people have the right to vote.

:52:09.:52:17.

We are not a joke. We are gdtting a protest vote. The other parties are

:52:18.:52:23.

the joke parties. Standing `s a candidate is no joke. Polithcal

:52:24.:52:28.

engagement is on the rise. Lore than 100 parties registered sincd the

:52:29.:52:34.

start of 2015. Democracy coles at a price. You have to put down a ? 00

:52:35.:52:39.

deposit which you don't get back unless you get 5% of the vote.

:52:40.:52:45.

Doctor Helen Salisbury from the National health action partx feels

:52:46.:52:49.

it is important to get involved I was just really worried that the

:52:50.:52:54.

thing that we value most, the care that people receive, which hs all

:52:55.:53:02.

about what they need, not what they can pay for, this fundament`l

:53:03.:53:06.

principle, was going to get lost. There are ways of sending mdssages.

:53:07.:53:11.

People say you could put a donkey in a blue jacket and it would be

:53:12.:53:16.

elected in that constituencx because it has always been Tory. Th`t

:53:17.:53:20.

doesn't mean it isn't an extremely good way of making your voice heard.

:53:21.:53:28.

For both Lord Toby Jug and Helen Salisbury it is not getting the vote

:53:29.:53:35.

that is the obstacle. Ukip got million votes. That resulted in one

:53:36.:53:41.

MP. It's totally wrong. I actually believe in proportional

:53:42.:53:43.

representation. It is the w`y forward. It's hard for small parties

:53:44.:53:50.

because of the system that we have. If we had proportional

:53:51.:53:55.

representation it would be dasier but, interestingly, the last general

:53:56.:53:58.

election was the first time we stood candidates and we did let bdtter

:53:59.:54:09.

than any other party on our first outing than any other party. We are

:54:10.:54:15.

actually not doing badly. It may not be a win but it is not going to stop

:54:16.:54:22.

these candidates to stop thdir struggle from getting their message

:54:23.:54:27.

out. Some serious issues thdre. Proportional representation. Also,

:54:28.:54:34.

the NHS party. You don't nedd an NHS party if Labour was doing its job

:54:35.:54:41.

properly. It is terribly good that we have a healthy democracy with

:54:42.:54:45.

these parties standing. Look at what is happening in America with its

:54:46.:54:52.

democracy. By-elections are a snapshot and give smaller p`rties an

:54:53.:54:56.

opportunity to make themselves heard. It's an important thhng. In

:54:57.:55:02.

Batley and spend, we saw thd far right, the hard right, exposed and

:55:03.:55:08.

are seen for what they really are. There is an important site to

:55:09.:55:12.

by-elections, our democracy where some of these smaller partids which

:55:13.:55:16.

are quite objectionable are exposed to scrutiny in a way that they get

:55:17.:55:20.

challenged. I thought it was disgraceful that they jeered and

:55:21.:55:25.

heckled Tracy Bray been as she won the seat. Somehow, the publhc sees a

:55:26.:55:34.

stitch up sometimes between major parties and the voting systdm seems

:55:35.:55:39.

to get that going with safe seats. I think if you are going to stand as

:55:40.:55:45.

somebody with a proper manifesto on a particular issue, it is a cheap

:55:46.:55:53.

way of getting decent publicity 500 quid, you are getting a lot of bang

:55:54.:55:58.

for your buck if you get coverage in the local papers. The guys from the

:55:59.:56:12.

Eccentric party, and so on, why shouldn't they? They would do worse

:56:13.:56:18.

under proportional representation because if the vote mattered, people

:56:19.:56:24.

wouldn't vote for them. The NHS action party, we should takd them

:56:25.:56:29.

seriously, shouldn't we? Thdy are from the medical profession. If they

:56:30.:56:34.

are campaigning on points that people can understand, I don't think

:56:35.:56:40.

they will continue to do better because you need policies on more

:56:41.:56:44.

than just one issue but the NHS is incredibly important to most people

:56:45.:56:49.

and both major parties take it seriously but it is something that

:56:50.:56:53.

puts the public on their mettle They have a fair point to m`ke. They

:56:54.:56:58.

are passionate about their politics and the NHS. I can see no good

:56:59.:57:05.

reason to say it isn't a good thing. It's a healthy sign of our

:57:06.:57:11.

democracy. With Ukip, you t`ke away the main point they are there for.

:57:12.:57:21.

Have they disappeared? They haven't been contesting by-elections. They

:57:22.:57:26.

are losing councillors. Thehr ideas have been absorbed by the other

:57:27.:57:32.

parties? Would you agree? To some extent. It depends what you think

:57:33.:57:35.

people voted Ukip around thd country. Some people voted on the

:57:36.:57:41.

European issue. Some people are voting because they feel

:57:42.:57:46.

dispossessed. They allocate themselves in various ways. Theresa

:57:47.:57:50.

May has captured a lot of pdople who feel left out. It's also wh`t she

:57:51.:57:56.

really cares about. A lot of Tories returning home. Now our regtlar

:57:57.:58:11.

round-up in 60 seconds. Womdn council workers have been m`rching

:58:12.:58:17.

for equal pay in breading. They say the council has been slower

:58:18.:58:20.

compensation after overpaying traditional male jobs. One person

:58:21.:58:26.

has died, two others are seriously ill still waiting. Teachers present

:58:27.:58:33.

a petition at Downing Street of their pupils complaints. Historian

:58:34.:58:43.

Dan Snow is campaigning to keep rare Roman coins near Liddington where

:58:44.:58:51.

the Forge was found. They don't need to be in the British Museum. A ban

:58:52.:58:58.

on mushroom foraging, is it against ancient custom? A charity offering

:58:59.:59:10.

rooms for bed blocking is pdrplexed it hasn't received requests from

:59:11.:59:13.

local health authorities. It says it has rooms ready to go. Thosd

:59:14.:59:18.

facilities not been used but the NHS is under huge pressure. What do we

:59:19.:59:24.

need? Just more money or crdative solutions? Money is a part of it.

:59:25.:59:29.

You cannot deny that the cuts are serious. Because there is so much

:59:30.:59:39.

more demand. We mustn't forget the overlap with social services. There

:59:40.:59:43.

are issues across the whole spectrum of health care and care that are

:59:44.:59:49.

really pressing. Some of thd most vulnerable people in the colmunity

:59:50.:59:54.

are being affected. Bed blocking is a serious financial issue

:59:55.:00:00.

particularly when local councils can't provide care in the community

:00:01.:00:03.

to support people coming out of hospital with good, solid c`re

:00:04.:00:11.

packages. Theresa May has s`id that you are the party of the NHS. Simon

:00:12.:00:18.

Stephens said that if he can have the plan to put a restructuring

:00:19.:00:26.

package together, he would but he needed funding. We have said, yes.

:00:27.:00:36.

He says it is not enough. Hd came to the government, he gave as the plan.

:00:37.:00:42.

He said he could do it. It's now down to local NHS trusts to put

:00:43.:00:46.

their heads together and work out how they can deliver servicds more

:00:47.:00:52.

efficiently. But Paul makes a good point, the interaction with social

:00:53.:00:58.

services is key. We have to see local services do more together It

:00:59.:01:02.

has to come together. There has to be more done in that field hf we are

:01:03.:01:05.

going to solve this terribld problem. Both of you, thank you for

:01:06.:01:12.

coming in and joining us today. That's all from ours. Now it's back

:01:13.:01:13.

to Andrew. Goodbye. So, Brexit, airports,

:01:14.:01:18.

Calais and the chances With what Rory Stewart was saying

:01:19.:01:49.

there, it is clear that Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq

:01:50.:01:52.

now, and could come under pressure in Syria as well. It used to control

:01:53.:01:59.

a whole swathe of the coast of Libya, and is now down to a small

:02:00.:02:08.

area of Sirte in Libya. But curiously, it could make them more

:02:09.:02:11.

dangerous here if they are being driven out of the Maghreb and the

:02:12.:02:16.

Levant, they could be more dangerous here. Discuss. That was a very

:02:17.:02:21.

interesting admission from a government minister, of all people,

:02:22.:02:26.

and a well-informed one. Chasing Isis around the Middle East is

:02:27.:02:33.

about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda around Afghanistan and Pakistan You

:02:34.:02:36.

smash them somewhere, and they pop up somewhere else. He is right to

:02:37.:02:46.

warn that these guys will go somewhere. And it may well be, in

:02:47.:02:57.

Sirte, for example, across the magic oration -- across the Mediterranean

:02:58.:03:02.

into Italy. A lot of the foreign fighters in Mosul have already gone,

:03:03.:03:06.

we heard, which raises the question, to where? I think it is quite right

:03:07.:03:14.

for government ministers to warn that it might have repercussions

:03:15.:03:19.

here. We have been involved in this, with full public consent, as far as

:03:20.:03:24.

we can tell. If it doesn't happen, if there are horrors and outrages

:03:25.:03:28.

here and in the rest of Europe, that's fine. If it does happen, at

:03:29.:03:35.

least the government is prepared. We knew surprised about how categorical

:03:36.:03:43.

Nia Griffith was? She was categorical about support for the

:03:44.:03:49.

Allied action in Iraq, and categorical about Russia. So much so

:03:50.:03:56.

that perhaps written should take tougher sanctions on its own, even

:03:57.:04:00.

if it can't get the Europeans to fall in line. I found that

:04:01.:04:05.

interesting. I was surprised by that. Tom may be right that Rory

:04:06.:04:10.

said more than perhaps he was intending, but I thought that some

:04:11.:04:15.

of what she said sounded politically imprudent in the current context of

:04:16.:04:20.

the Labour Party. I'm not sure she cleared those lines with the Labour

:04:21.:04:24.

office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy are in the same place about it. I'm

:04:25.:04:30.

not sure there is that much leadership. People at the moment get

:04:31.:04:33.

out there and say what they think it's right for the party. She

:04:34.:04:38.

sounded dead right to me. Whether it is ill-advised or not, people should

:04:39.:04:44.

answer... I want to move on, because Brexit never goes away. This week we

:04:45.:04:50.

saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow Foreign Secretary. He is going to be

:04:51.:04:54.

the chair of the select committee in the Commons which will monitor the

:04:55.:04:58.

Department for Brexit. All sorts of people will be coming to give

:04:59.:05:01.

testimony and so one. Let's hear what he told Andrew Marr.

:05:02.:05:04.

I think it will be very important for the government to indicate that

:05:05.:05:08.

if it is not possible within the two years provided for by Article 5

:05:09.:05:11.

to negotiate both our withdrawal agreement and a new trading

:05:12.:05:13.

relationship, market access, including for services,

:05:14.:05:15.

80% of our economy, million jobs, in financial services,

:05:16.:05:17.

that it should tell the House of Commons that it will seek

:05:18.:05:20.

a transitional arrangement with the European Union.

:05:21.:05:26.

If the deal is not done at the end of the two-year Article 50 process,

:05:27.:05:34.

would the government go for an interim agreement, or would it fall

:05:35.:05:40.

back on WTO, World Trade Organisation, Rawls? My

:05:41.:05:45.

understanding is the article 15 negotiation doesn't specifically

:05:46.:05:48.

include what Britain's future trading relationship with the EU

:05:49.:05:53.

would be. It is perfectly possible that Article 50 could be triggered,

:05:54.:05:58.

and after two years we don't have a trade deal, but the trade deal

:05:59.:06:03.

negotiations are ongoing when we are outside the EU. But the trade deal

:06:04.:06:14.

negotiations are the most important thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover

:06:15.:06:16.

it, what is it about? Absolutely essential. The trade deal with

:06:17.:06:19.

Canada has taken nine years, and now it looks like it is fading, because

:06:20.:06:27.

of the Walloons. Just one small part of the country. If you cannot do a

:06:28.:06:36.

free-trade deal with Canada, a progressive, social Democratic

:06:37.:06:39.

Canada, who can the EU do a trade deal with? You would think it would

:06:40.:06:44.

be easy with us, because we have all of the level playing field

:06:45.:06:47.

agreements in place. You would hope it would be easier, but it may not

:06:48.:06:53.

be, because in the end, it will hinge on the single market and if we

:06:54.:06:58.

are in or out. If we are in, can we have a small break on immigration?

:06:59.:07:07.

It looks like not. What is interesting about the opinion polls

:07:08.:07:09.

is, in the last two opinion polls there was a significant change in

:07:10.:07:13.

public opinion, where people are now saying they think that actually

:07:14.:07:18.

trade, the economy, the single market is more important than

:07:19.:07:22.

immigration. If it is really true, as the observer is reporting today,

:07:23.:07:27.

that banks are on the move, and in a year's time there could be a

:07:28.:07:31.

significant collapse in the income we get from finance, the income that

:07:32.:07:36.

the Treasury gets, then public opinion might change. They may say,

:07:37.:07:47.

we don't want more immigration, but this isn't a price worth paying

:07:48.:07:49.

Everything tends to be seen through the Brexit lens at the moment.

:07:50.:07:57.

Things are not always as they seem. The Canadian- EU free trade

:07:58.:08:01.

agreement was about increasing free trade between the EU and Canada and

:08:02.:08:06.

therefore subject to the ratification of all members. Any

:08:07.:08:10.

deal we do will not give us the same access we have at the moment. The

:08:11.:08:15.

question is, how much will it be diminished? It may not be subject to

:08:16.:08:22.

the same ratification process. Absolutely right. Another

:08:23.:08:24.

unbelievably technical point that we still don't know is, if we can get

:08:25.:08:31.

this free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as our Brexit talks

:08:32.:08:35.

and deal, the divorce deal as well as the remarriage deal, then one

:08:36.:08:44.

gets signed off by QM V. The trade deal may still need all 28, all 27,

:08:45.:08:52.

including the people from the Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority

:08:53.:08:59.

of parliament. This is exactly why Theresa May would like the

:09:00.:09:02.

transitional deal to push this one deeper. I was surprised to hear

:09:03.:09:06.

Hilary Benn pushing this line this morning. The remainers have been all

:09:07.:09:11.

over the place. They wanted a vote after Article 50 had been triggered

:09:12.:09:16.

about the deal. Then they wanted a vote before Article 50. Now they are

:09:17.:09:24.

talking about a vote before article Article 50 is triggered about a

:09:25.:09:28.

trade deal. They need to make up their minds about what it is they

:09:29.:09:33.

are pushing for, and what their best hope of obstructing Brexit is, and

:09:34.:09:39.

stick with it. Something else we see through the Brexit lens, which isn't

:09:40.:09:44.

always helpful, is Calais. The French bulldozers will move in

:09:45.:09:48.

tomorrow. We will see some pretty disturbing scenes on the TV. We will

:09:49.:09:53.

see some horrible scenes. The government has handled this very

:09:54.:09:57.

badly. Having passed an amendment in April saying we would take something

:09:58.:10:03.

like 3000 children, a lot of those children have disappeared. Save the

:10:04.:10:06.

Children, one of the charities there, are very worried that people

:10:07.:10:10.

traffickers have been in there, and a lot of those children have

:10:11.:10:18.

vanished. We haven't sent social workers in. No preparations have

:10:19.:10:22.

been made what ever. You are raising an interesting point. We don't know

:10:23.:10:29.

how many we are meant to be taking. The huge argument has arisen over

:10:30.:10:33.

what the age is of some of the ones coming in. Is this another problem

:10:34.:10:40.

for the Home Office? To some extent. Didn't Theresa May 's too well to

:10:41.:10:45.

survive six weeks of this? Amber Rudd has been there for three

:10:46.:10:49.

months. It is clear that the Home Office didn't prepare for this. They

:10:50.:10:53.

didn't prepare for the age verification or when it will go It

:10:54.:11:01.

needs to be an perfect. We don't know how many we will take, because

:11:02.:11:07.

the Home Office will not say. I want to talk about airport capacity, but

:11:08.:11:11.

I won't, because I don't think we have anything to say about it until

:11:12.:11:16.

the statement on Tuesday from Transport Minister Grayling. When

:11:17.:11:21.

you look at the polls and see the decision on airport runway expansion

:11:22.:11:24.

being kicked into the long grass for a year, are we heading for an early

:11:25.:11:29.

election next year or not? I think Theresa May will do everything she

:11:30.:11:34.

can to avoid it. If there is an election before 2020, it is bound to

:11:35.:11:41.

be about Europe, and that is a much harder case for her to win than just

:11:42.:11:44.

a question of who is the best Prime Minister. She will have a tough

:11:45.:11:49.

time, because it will be a general election about in or out of the

:11:50.:11:54.

single market. Half of her party will peel away. How do she conduct a

:11:55.:11:59.

general election when the likes of Anna Soubry will not stand on the

:12:00.:12:04.

same platform? It will be difficult. But she may reach such a stalemate

:12:05.:12:14.

that she just calls one. No general election next year because it will

:12:15.:12:17.

split the Tory party. There will be won in 2019 when she cannot get

:12:18.:12:21.

Brexit through the House of Commons. You really can have too much of a

:12:22.:12:25.

good thing. I just want to show a little clip of the former Shadow

:12:26.:12:30.

Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly last night. Let's just watch this.

:12:31.:12:34.

There he is. Where is the hand? That is the

:12:35.:12:46.

worrying bit! We will no longer be saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair

:12:47.:12:54.

of hands! Can we agree on that? Remarkable that he was once the man

:12:55.:12:58.

most feared by David Cameron! Labour leader 2021. He has hit popular

:12:59.:13:06.

culture in the way that many few politicians do. Charm, gusto,

:13:07.:13:12.

bravery, no worries about being embarrassed. All the things that you

:13:13.:13:19.

don't like about being a politician. We have run out of time. You can get

:13:20.:13:22.

it on social media. Jo Coburn will be back

:13:23.:13:25.

with the Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here next

:13:26.:13:27.

Sunday at the same time. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:28.:13:31.

it's the Sunday Politics. Everyone's living these

:13:32.:14:04.

amazing lives, You're like a...

:14:05.:14:07.

Different person? Delve deeper.

:14:08.:14:17.

Ordinary Lives continues... They have something on me

:14:18.:14:27.

that I can actually remember. They have something on me

:14:28.:14:28.

that I can actually remember. The final chapter between

:14:29.:14:32.

Gibson and Spector.

:14:33.:14:37.

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