02/04/2017 Sunday Politics South

It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained

But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal

After a momentous week, Britain's journey out

Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home

We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.

And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -

In the South... who's going up and who's going down?

How the changing South West Trains rail franchise means new trains

costing millions of pounds will be shunted off to the sidings

opposing sides give the view from there constituencies.

And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political

panel in the business - Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott

and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

For the people of Gibraltar, Clause 22 of the EU's draft negotiating

guidelines came as something of a shock.

The guidelines propose that the Government in Spain be

given a veto over any future trade deal as it applies to

The UK Government has reacted strongly, saying Gibraltar

will not be bargained away in the Brexit talks.

Here's the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, speaking

We are going to look after Gibraltar.

Gibraltar's going to be protected all the way, all the way,

because the sovereignty of Gibraltar cannot be changed without

the agreement of the people of Gibraltar and they have made it

very clear they do not want to live under Spanish rule

and it is interesting, I think, in the draft guidelines from the EU

that Spain is not saying that the whole thing is subject

Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is this a Spanish power grab or much

ado about nothing? It could be both. Clearly what is happening about this

negotiation and will happen again and again is that at different

points individual countries can start playing bargaining cards. They

will say, if you want a deal, you have to deliver this, UK. Spain is

doing it early. It might turn out to be nothing at all. It is an early

example of how to delete recruit after Article 50 is triggered, the

dynamic -- how after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic changes. At

certain points, any country can veto it. It gives them much more power

than we have clocked so far. Donald Tusk, the head of the European

Council, he went out of his way to say Britain mustn't deal by

laterally, with individual countries, it has to deal with the

EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking to add this bit in about Spain?

Those two things do not tally. I think on our part, when I say we, I

mean the Foreign Office and Number 10, we dropped the ball. By

excluding Gibraltar from the letter of Article 50, they gave an

opportunity to the Spanish to steal the narrative. Why this is

important, presentation, things looked like they were going quite

well for Theresa May when she handed over the letter, for a few hours,

and suddenly, you have this incredible symbolism of Gibraltar.

For Brexiteers, the idea that there could be some kind of diminishment

or failure in relation to Gibraltar, it would be a very symbolic

illustration of things not going entirely to plan. Forget the detail,

it does not look great. Gibraltar got mentions in the white paper.

They did not get a mention in the Article 50 notification. Do you

think the British Government did not see this coming? To be honest, I do

not think it would make a bit of difference. Theresa May could have

an entire chapter in her letter to Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the

EU would have still tried this on. For me, it was as much a point of

symbolism than it was for any power grab. It was a good point to make.

You need to know, Britain, you are not in our club, we will not have

your interests at heart. Officials after the press conference, they

went on to talk about it saying it is a territorial dispute. It is not!

Gibraltar is British. It is very much a shot across the bow is.

Whether it comes to pass, it is still yet to be seen. I feel we will

be chasing hares like this for the next few years. There will be many

other examples. They are greatly empowered by the whole process.

Britain has not really got... It has got to wait and hear what their

interpretation of Brexit is. They will negotiate, we will negotiate

accordingly. I have some sympathy about the letter, the Article 50

letter. They agonised over it, so much to get right in terms of

balance and tone. It would have been absurd to start mentioning Skegness

and everything else. Why not! Skegness, what did they do? It is a

real example of how the dynamic now changes. The Spanish royals are

going to come here in a couple of months, that could be interesting.

It will be good feelings breaking up, I am sure. -- breaking out.

So, after a historic week, the UK is now very much

But will it be a smooth journey to the exit door?

Or can we expect a bit of turbulence?

Are you taking back control, Prime Minister?

Big days in politics usually involve people shouting

and the Prime Minister getting in a car.

It is only a few hundred metres from Downing Street to Parliament.

But the short journey is the start of a much longer one

and we do not know exactly where we will all end up.

This is a historic moment from which there can

Moments earlier, this Dear John, sorry, Dear Don letter,

was delivered by Britain's ambassador in Brussels to the EU

He seemed genuinely upset to have been jilted.

Back in Westminster, hacks from around the world

were trying to work out what it all meant for the

So, here it is, a copy of the six-page letter

The letter reaffirms the PM's proposal to have talks on the exit

deal and a future trade deal at the same time.

It also mentioned the word "security" 11 times and stated

a failure to reach agreement would mean cooperation

in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.

Later, our very own Andrew got to ask her what would happen

if Britain left the European policing agency, Europol.

We would not be able to access information in the same way

as we would as a member, so it is important, I think,

we are able to negotiate a continuing relationship that

enables us to work together in the way that we have.

That night, the Brexiteers were happy.

We did not have a Mad Hatter, but now we do.

Down the street, even the Remainers, having a Mad Hatters' tea party,

I am not sure that is actually Boris, though.

The next morning, the papers suggested Theresa May would use

security as a bargaining tool and threaten to withdraw the UK's

cooperation in this area if no deal was struck.

Downing Street denied it, as did the Brexit Secretary.

We can both cope, but we will both be worse off.

That seems to be a statement of fact, it is not a threat,

David Davis had other business that morning,

introducing the Great Repeal Bill, outling his plans to transfer

all EU law into British law to change later,

It is not without its critics but the Brexit Secretary said,

among other benefits, it would make trade talks easier

As we exit the EU and seek a new deep and special partnership

with the European Union, we are doing so from a position

where we have the same standards and rules.

It will also ensure we deliver on our promise to end the supremacy

of European Union law in the UK as we exit.

There was, though, a small issue with the name.

The Government hit an early hurdle with the Great Repeal Bill.

Parliamentary draughtsmen said they were not allowed

Great(!) so it is just the Repeal Bill.

So far, it had been a tale of two cities.

By Friday, there was another, Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders

were having a meeting and President Tusk, yes, him again,

set out draft guidelines for the EU Brexit strategy.

Once, and only once, we have achieved sufficient progress

on the withdrawal can we discuss the framework for our

Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time,

as suggested by some in the UK, will not happen.

The EU 27 does not and will not pursue a punitive approach.

Brexit in itself is already punitive enough.

The pressure on Theresa May to get the Brexit process going has now

gone and the stage is being set elsewhere for the showdown

But face-to-face discussions are not likely to happen

Before May or early June. No one is celebrating just yet.

We're joined now from Kent by the former Conservative

The EU says it will not talk about a future relationship with the UK

until there has been sufficient progress on agreeing the divorce

bill. Should the UK agree to this phased approach? Well, I think you

can make too much about the sequence and timing of the negotiations. I

assume that it will be a case of nothing is agreed until everything

is agreed and so any agreements that might be reached on things talked

about early on will be very provisional, so I think you can make

a big deal about the timing and the sequence when I do not think it

really matters as much as all that. Don't people have a right in this

country to be surprised of the talk of a massive multi-billion pound

divorce settlement? I do not remember either side making much of

this in the referendum, do you? No. A select committee of the House of

Lords recently reported and said that there was no legal basis for

any exit fee. We will have to see how the negotiations go. I think

some of the figures cited so far are wildly out of kilter and wildly

unrealistic. We will have to see what happens in the negotiations. As

one of your panel commented earlier, there will be lots of hares to

pursue over the next couple of years and we should not get too excited

about any of them. Would you accept that we make... It may not be

anything like the figures Brussels is kicking around of 50, 60 billion

euros, do you think we will have to make a one-off settlement? If we get

everything else we want, if we get a really good trade deal and access

for the City of London and so on, speaking for myself, I would be

prepared to make a modest payment. But it all depends on the deal we

get. What would modest be? Oh, I cannot give you a figure. We are

right at the start of the negotiations. I do not think that

would be agreed until near the end. The EU says that if there is a

transition period of several years after the negotiations, and there is

more talk of that, the UK must remain subject to the free movement

of peoples and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, would

that be acceptable to you? It depends on the nature of the

transitional agreement. We are getting well ahead of ourselves

here. You cannot, I think, for any judgment as to whether there should

be a transitional stage until you know what the final deal is. If

there is to be a final deal. And then you know how long it might take

to implement that deal. That is something I think that it is really

rather futile to talk about at this stage. It may become relevant,

depending on the nature of the deal, and that is the proper time to talk

about it and decide what the answer to the questions you pose might be.

Except the EU has laid this out in its negotiation mandate and it is

reasonable to ask people like yourself, should we accept that? It

is reasonable for me to say, they will raise all sorts of things in

their negotiating mandate and we do not need to form a view of all of

them at this stage. Let me try another one. The EU says if they do

agree what you have called a comprehensive free trade deal, we

would have to accept EU constraints on state aid and taxes like VAT and

corporation tax. Would you accept that? Again, I am not sure quite

what they have in mind on that. We will be an independent country when

we leave and we will make our own decisions about those matters. Not

according to know that -- to the negotiating mandate. As I have said,

they can put all sorts of things in the negotiating guidelines, it does

not mean we have to agree with them. No doubt that is something we can

discuss in the context of a free trade agreement. If we get a free

trade agreement, that is very important for them as well as for

us, and we can talk about some of the things you have just mentioned.

Can you please leave a 20 without having repatriated full control of

migration, taxis and the law? I think we will have repatriated all

three of those things by the time of the next general election. How high

would you rate the chances of no deal, and does that prospect worry

you? I think the chances are we will get the deal, and I think the

chances are we will get a good deal, because that is in the interests of

both sides of this negotiation. But it is not the end of the world if we

do not get a deal. Most trade in the world is carried out under World

Trade Organisation rules. We would be perfectly OK if we traded with

the European Union, as with everybody else, under World Trade

Organisation rules. It is better to get the deal, and I think we will

get the deal, because it is in the interests of both. Let me ask you

about Gibraltar. You have campaigned in Gibraltar when the sovereignty

issue came up under the Tony Blair government. The EU says that Spain

should have a veto on whether any free-trade deal should apply to the

Rock. How should the British government replied to that? As it

has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand

by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this week, Andrew, another woman Prime

Minister Centre task force is halfway across the world to protect

another small group of British people against another

Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely clear that our current

woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to

Gibraltar as her predecessor did. This is not about Spain invading

Gibraltar, it is not even about sovereignty, it is about Spain

having a veto over whether any free-trade deal that the UK makes

with the EU should also apply to Gibraltar. On that issue, how should

the British government respond? The British government should show

resolve. It is not in the interests of Spain, really, to interfere with

free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 people who live in Spain working

Gibraltar. That is a very important Spanish interest, so I am very

confident that in the end, we will be able to look after all the

interests of Gibraltar, including free trade. Michael Howard, thank

you for joining us from Kent this morning.

Although sometimes it seems like everyone has forgotten,

there are things happening other than Brexit.

In less than five weeks' time, there will be a round of important

domestic elections and there's a lot up for grabs.

Local elections take place on the 4th of May in England,

In England, there are elections in 34 councils, with 2,370

The majority are county councils, usually areas of strength

Large cities where Labour usually fares better are not

Six regions of England will also hold elections for newly created

combined authority mayors, and there will be contests

for directly elected mayors, with voters in Manchester,

Liverpool and the West Midlands among those going to the polls.

In Scotland, every seat in all 32 councils are being contested,

many of them affected by boundary changes.

Since these seats were last contested, Labour lost all but one

Meanwhile, every seat in each of Wales' 22 councils

All but one was last elected in 2012 in what was a very

strong year for Labour, though independent

candidates currently hold a quarter of council seats.

According to the latest calculations by Plymouth

University Election Centre, the Tories are predicted

to increase their tally by 50 seats, despite being in government,

But the dramatic story in England looks to be with the other parties,

with the Lib-Dems possibly winning 100 seats, while Ukip

could be seeing a fall, predicted to lose 100 seats.

Though the proportional system usually makes big changes

less likely in Scotland, the SNP is predicted to increase

both the number of seats they hold, and the number

In Wales, Labour is defending a high water mark in support.

Last year's Welsh Assembly elections suggest the only way is down,

with all the parties making modest gains at Labour's expense.

Joining me now is the BBC's very own elections guru,

Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde.

Good to see you again. Let's start with England. How bad are the

selection is going to be for Labour? Labourer not defending a great deal

because this is for the most part rural England. The only control

three of the council they are defending and they are only

defending around 500 seats, I nearly a quarter are in one county, Durham.

Labour's position in the opinion polls is weakened over the last 12

months and if you compare the position in the opinion polls now

with where they were in the spring of 2013 when these seats in England

were last fought, we are talking about a 12 point swing from Labour

to conservative. The estimate of 50 losses may be somewhat optimistic

for Labour. Of the three council areas they control, two of them,

Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, could be lost, leaving labourer with

virtually a duck as far as council control is concerned in these

elections in England. In England, what would a Liberal Democrat

reserve urgently great? That is the big question. We have had this

picture since the EU referendum of the Liberal Democrats doing

extraordinarily well in some local by-elections, gaining seats that

they had not even fought before, and in other areas, doing no more than

treading water. We are expecting a Liberal Democrat skin because the

lost the lot -- the lost lots of ground when they were in coalition

with the Conservatives. It is uncertain. A patchy performance may

well be to their advantage. If they do well in some places and gain

seats, and elsewhere do not do terribly well and do not waste

votes, they may end up doing relatively well in seats, even if

the overall gaining votes is likely to be modest. The elections for

mayors, they are taking place in the Labour will that be a hefty

consolation prize for the Labour Party? It ought to be, on Teesside,

Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We are looking at one content very

closely, that is the contest for the mayor of the West Midlands. If you

look at what happened in the general election in 2015, labourer work nine

points ahead of the Conservatives in the West Midlands. If you look at

the swing since the general election, if you add that swing to

where we were two years ago, the West Midlands now looks like a draw.

Labour have to worry about a headline grabbing loss, and the West

Midlands contest. If they were to lose, that wooden crate -- that

would increase the pressure for their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince

people that they can turn his party's fortunes around, and in

truth at the moment, they are pretty dire. The West Midlands has

Birmingham as its heart. Chock-a-block with marginal seats.

It always has been. I always remember election night and marginal

seats in the West Midlands. Scotland, the SNP is assaulting

Labour's last remaining power base. The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it

take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP will gain control of Glasgow is

uncertain. If you look at what is happening in local government

by-elections let alone the opinion polls, in 2012, when these seats

were last fought, Labour did relatively well, only one percentage

point behind the SNP who were rather disappointed with the result

compared to other elections. No sign of that happening this time alone --

this time around. Polls put the SNP ahead. By-elections have found the

SNP advancing and Labour dropping by double digits. Labour are going to

lose everything they currently control in Scotland, the SNP will

become the dominant party, the question is how well they do. In

Scotland there is a Conservative revival going on. The Conservatives

did well in recent local government by-elections. At the moment, Labour

are expected to come third north of the border in the local elections,

repeating the third they suffered in the Holyrood elections last year. In

Wales, Labour is expecting to lose control of a number of councils.

They are the main party in 12 of 22 local authorities. How bad could it

be? We're expecting Labour to lose ground. In the opinion polls when

these seats were last fought, labourer in the high 40s. Now they

are not much above 30%. Cardiff could well join Glasgow was no

longer being a Labour stronghold. Look out for Newport. Some of the

South Wales councils that Labour control, Labour is

probably too but occasionally, Plaid Cymru surprises in this area. They

managed to win the Rhondda seat in the assembly elections. Jeremy

Corbyn has said he wants to be judged on proper elections, council

elections as opposed to opinion polls, but even if he does as badly

as John has been suggesting, does it affect his leadership? I think it

does on two counts. It will affect his own confidence. Anyone who is a

human being will be affected by this. He might go into his office

and be told by John McDonnell and others, stand firm, it is all right,

but it will affect his confidence and inevitably it contributes to a

sense that this is moving to some kind of denoument, at some point. In

other words, while I understand the argument that he has won twice in a

leadership contest, well, within 12 months, I wonder whether this can

carry on in a fixed term parliament, up until 2020, if it were to do so.

On two France, it will have some impact. I am not seeing it will lead

to his immediate departure, it will mark, but if these things are as

devastating as John suggests, it will have an impact. Tom, I'll be

looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That is the $64,000 question. It would

seem that we should be. One massive reason we're not having a general

election a time soon, apart from the fact that Theresa May does not

believe in these things, she believes in pressing on, it is

because Tory MPs in the South West who took the Lib Dem seats, they

were telling Number 10 they were worried they were going to lose

their seats back to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems never went away and

local government. They have got other campaigners and activists. It

looks credible that they will be the success story of the whole thing.

Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says this will be the most difficult

local elections his party will face before 2020. A bit of management of

expectations. It is unlikely to be a good time for Ukip. They are right

to manage expectations. The results will be horrible for Ukip. I agree

with Tom about the Lib Dem threat to the Tories. Talking to

some senior figures within the Tory party earlier this week, I was

picking up that they are worried about 30-40 general election seeds

being vulnerable to the Lib Dems because of the Labour collapse. I

would normally agree with Steve about the resilience of politicians,

the capability of withstanding repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is

not in the normal category. I think he is, in the sense that although he

get solace from winning leadership contest, anyone who leads a party

into the kind of, it is not going to be that vivid, because they are not

defending the key seats. If they were to win Birmingham, say, and get

slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland, it will undermine what is already a

fairly ambiguous sense of self-confidence. We need to leave it

there. Thank you, John Curtice. Well, with those elections

on the horizon, is Labour where it Former leader Ed Miliband

was on the Andrew Marr Show earlier and he explained

the challenge Labour faces It is easier for other parties,

if you are the Greens or the Liberal Democrats you're essentially

fishing in the 48% pool. If you are Ukip, you are

fishing in the 52% pool. Labour is trying to do

something much harder, which is to try and speak

for the whole country, and by the way, that is another part

of Our attack on Theresa May,

part of it is she's Ignoring the verdict

going into this, saying, let's overturn it, looks

like ignoring the 52%. By the way, there is more

that unites Remainers and Leavers than might first appear,

because they share common concerns about the way

the country is run. Joining me now is the Shadow Health

Secretary, Jon Ashworth. Welcome to the programme. Alastair

Campbell told me on the BBC on Thursday that he is fighting to

reverse the referendum result. Ed Miliband says that Remain needs to

accept the result, come to terms with it. Who is right? We have to

accept the referendum result. I campaigned passionately to remain in

the European Union. The city I represent, Leicester, voted narrowly

to remain in the European Union. Sadly the country did not. We cannot

overturn that and be like kinky nude, trying to demand the tide go

back out. We have to accept this democratic process. We all voted to

have a referendum when the relevant legislation came to Parliament. How

bad will the local elections before Labour? Let us see where we get to

on election night when I am sure I will be invited on to one of these

types of programmes... The election date, the following day. But it does

look like you will lose seats across the board in England, Scotland and

Wales. What did you make of what Steve Richards said about the impact

on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We have to win seats, we cannot fall

back on the scales suggested. No, your package was right, it tends to

be Tory areas, but generally, we have to be winning in

Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those types of places because they contain

a lot of the marginal constituencies that decide general elections. The

important places in the elections are towns like Beeston, towns you

have not heard of, but they are marginal towns in marginal swing

constituencies. We have to do well in them. We will see where we are on

election night but my pretty is to campaign hard in these areas over

the next few weeks. Even people who voted Labour in 2015, they prefer

Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't

that extraordinary? I have not seen that. I will look it up. It was you

Government. -- YouGov. It is important we win the trust of

people. You are not winning the trust of people who voted for you in

2015. We have to hold onto people who voted for us in 2015 and we have

to persuade people who voted for other parties to come to us. One of

the criticisms I have of the debate that goes on in the wider Labour

Party, do not misunderstand me, I am not making a criticism about an

individual, but the debate you see online suggests that if you want to

get people who voted Conservative to switch to Labour it is somehow a

betrayal of our principles, it was not. Justin Trudeau said

Conservative voters are our neighbours, our relatives. We have

to persuade people to switch from voting Conservative to voting Labour

as well as increasing our vote among nonvoters and Greens. It seems like

you have a mountain to climb and the mountain is Everest. Another poll, I

am not sure if you have seen this, in London, the Bastian of Labour,

the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is less popular than even Ukip's Paul

Nuttall. That is beyond extraordinary! I do not know about

that. The most recent set of elections in London was the mayoral

election where the Labour candidate city: won handsomely. He took the

seat of a conservative. We took that of a conservative. It was a year

ago. We did well then. You had an anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I

think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn, from memory. We have not got

elections in London but our elections are in the county areas

and the various mayoral elections... What about the West Midlands? In any

normal year, mid-term, as the opposition, Labour should win the

West Midlands. John Curtis says it is nip and tuck. It has always been

a swing region but we want to do well, of course. We want to turn out

a strong Labour vote in Dudley, Northampton, those sorts of places.

They are key constituencies in the general election. Does Labour look

like a government in waiting to you? What I would say is contrast where

we are to what the conservative garment is doing. I asked you about

Labour, you do not get to tell me about the Conservatives. Does it

look like a government in waiting to you? Today we are exposing the

Conservatives... Reminding people the Conservatives are breaking the

pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks so lots of elderly people waiting

longer in pain for hip replacements and cataract replacements. Yesterday

the Housing spokesperson John Healey was exposing the shortcomings in the

Help to Buy scheme. The education spokesperson has been campaigning

hard against the cuts to schools. Tom Watson has been campaigning hard

against some of the changes the Government want to introduce in

culture. The Shadow Cabinet are working hard to hold the

Government's feet to the fire. Does it look like a government in

waiting? Yes. It took you three times! There is a social care

crisis, schools funding issue, a huge issue for lots of areas, the

NHS has just got through the winter and is abandoning many of its

targets. You are 18 points behind in the polls. We have to work harder.

What can you do? The opinion polls are challenging but we are a great

Social Democratic Party of government. On Twitter today, lots

of Labour activists celebrating that the national minimum wage has been

in place for something like 16 years because we were in government. Look

of the sweeping progressive changes this country has benefited from, the

NHS, sure start centres, an assault on child poverty, the Labour Party

got itself in contention for government. I entirely accept the

polls do not make thrilling reading for Labour politicians on Sunday

morning, but it means people like me have to work harder because we are

part of something bigger than an individual, we are in the business

of changing things for the British people and if we do not do that, if

we do not focus on that, we are letting people down. Is Labour

preparing for an early election question Billy burqa? Reports in the

press of a war chest as macro for an early election? The general election

coordinator called for a general election when Theresa May became

Prime Minister. We are investing in staff and the organisational

capability we need. By the way, the Labour Party staff do brilliant

work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter having a go at them. They do

tremendous work. Whenever the election comes, they will be ready.

Jon Ashworth, thank you. The trains that could

hit the buffers before Why the new South West Trains

franchise means that millions of pounds of new rolling stock

will be shunted off to the sidings Firstly, let us meet

the two politicians with me Rowenna Davis contested

the Southampton Itchen seat And Sir Gerald Howarth is

the Conservative MP for Aldershot. Now, the story dominating this week,

as it probably will for the next two years, was Brexit,

of course, and the long-awaited triggering of Article 50 -

the UK's divorce papers, So just how were voters

in the South reacting? I am thrilled, I voted

Brexit and I am hoping that it will all go well,

no trouble from these Remoaners. Personally, I voted to come out

of Europe, or out of the EU - not out of Europe -

so I do not see any It has not changed my lifestyle,

let us put it that way! Way too slow, it has been

a ridiculous situation. No matter which way people

voted, we have all got Yes, there will be implications

but there is no point trying to fight against it,

the decision has been made. We all have to take it

as it comes, I think. We need to rediscover our

identity as a country, rather than as Europeans,

because we have got an awful lot of history and an awful

lot to offer the world, and somehow it has been

dissipated, I feel. It has taken a long time to actually

get to the point of triggering it... And some people say,

well, "why did we not get But now that we have heard

from the European Union, everyone has their ducks in a row,

Rowenna, safeguards against unfair competition through fiscal,

social and environmental dumping, Do you think that's genuine or do

you think there is still some sort Yes, whenever you have that massive

shake-up, you run the risk of losing some of that regulation. But just go

back to the wider question of what we can expect from Brexit. A lot of

people are saying, can we get what we want? My feeling is that if the

EU gave us everything that we asked for, if they gave us all of the

trade that we wanted with no strings attached, it would not be enough for

the people who voted Brexit, because when people voted to take back

control, they were asking for, you know, more jobs in the north, more

housing in the south, they were voting for a reinstatement of

patriotism, every tonne of manufacturing, they were asking for

a new vision of Britain, and at the moment, even... You are putting

words in the mouth of the people who voted to leave and suggesting that

this or that they wanted. Well, maybe not, but if you look at the

polls, you will see that what people are after, there was something and

that's talking about taking back control which was greater agency

over your country and your life, and I think that if you just go for a

trade deal, that will not satisfy the people who voted Brexit, because

breaking down the polling numbers on that and the difficulties and

concerns they are talking about go much deeper than the surface level

Theresa May talks about this a lot. Theresa May talks about this a lot.

She has said that we need to transform Britain, this is not just

about Britain -- Europe, but her actions have not done enough so far

to build the kind of Britain that meet people who voted Brexit

satisfied. So you are telling me whatever she does will be a failure?

Not necessarily, she had a choice, she could perform a radical agenda,

but if you look at what she has done since taking office, does not sound

much different from that of what David Cameron was talking about. You

will tell me it is going to be a great success? It will, of course,

it will be. But not everyone will be happy. We face a great challenge and

the next two years but I must argue with Rowenna's analysis. She is

correct in that the Prime Minister has been saying that to the House of

Commons last Wednesday. People want a return of sovereignty and that is

why they voted to leave, they felt that what they voted for, and 19

Sunday five, the common market of goods and services has since become

an organisation that turns you into a superstate. Overwhelmingly it was

to do with recovering control over our borders, in terms of

immigration... Would they be happy to pay a lot of money to the single

market to get sovereignty back? We will not be paying 60 billion euros,

that is a complete fabrication. That is what they are asking for, isn't

it? Negotiations have only just started and to answer your initial

question, the reason why they did not send the letter to Donald Tusk

before this week is because, first and foremost, Theresa May came into

government unexpectedly. There was no blueprint for what would happen

deal with... But what about your deal with... But what about your

former Prime Minister? It was, what it was. To her credit, Theresa May

said at the outset that he intended said at the outset that he intended

to invoke Article 50 by March 31 to invoke Article 50 by March 31

2017. It might have been evoked to... But we had the intervention of

the divisional Court followed by the Supreme Court. So we could not do

anything into that was out of the way. We will have to wait for the

elections now in Europe. We have passed the essential legislation

with strong support from the Labour Party. But you are correct,

elections are coming up next month in France, and elections in

September in Germany, they are absolutely petrified about Marine Le

Pen and the front Nationale are doing well in France and another

rival party on the right wing doing well in Germany. We do not know what

will happen until those settled. But what I want to know is what has

Theresa May done since taking office to change this country that David

Cameron was not already agreeing with, what is this new vision? The

British public have said we need to remake our country, where we need to

be, and Theresa May has taught radical but her policy agenda has

been exactly the same. People criticise Labour a lot but at least

we have a different policy agenda. I think Theresa May has set up an

ambitious programme which he set out on the steps of damaged when

assuming office, as recently as the end of last year. But these things

take time, we have the new Chancellor of the Exchequer who is

trying to ensure that we reorientate so that the just about managing

people, we look after them, we have a new housing white paper to help

people on housing, we are looking at tax regime, to help those on middle

incomes... But it is a very challenging agenda, the good news is

And the one thing I know from having And the one thing I know from having

served with Margaret Thatcher when served with Margaret Thatcher when

she was Prime Minister was that women do tend to do what they are

going to see what they are going to do. I cannot agree with that! We

will have to leave that discussion there are!

After two decades running trains across southern England,

Stagecoach has lost the South West Trains contract.

In comes a new group in which the Hong Kong Government

has a substantial stake - just the latest foreign state-owned

We're promised new trains, more and faster services.

But as our transport correspondent Paul Clifton reports,

the deal also involves throwing away trains that are brand-new.

Yes, this was a complete surprise, not least to Stagecoach,

which has run the trains here for 21 years.

This morning there are more than 100 people on it.

The first privatised scheduled passenger train on the railways

I was on the very first train with the Transport Secretary of the day.

I think over the next year you will see a progressive

improvement to passenger services and more people coming

Since then, South West Trains has been the only operator

Now, in come FirstGroup, which runs Great Western

with Hong Kong-owned MTR, which will run Crossrail.

The unions point out that foreign government-owned companies now

have a stake in three quarters of the UK's passenger

trains and the UK's government has none at all.

French, German, Italian, Dutch, Belgian, Qatari,

Singaporean and Chinese interests all have a stake in

We are promised 90 new trains and faster journey times

That can only be achieved by missing out some of the stops in between.

Next month, the first of these brand-new trains will enter service

But FirstGroup does not want them, it has decided to reject them before

the German factory has even finished building them.

Two years from now, it will replace them with yet more new trains.

FirstGroup does not want these either, the suburban carriages

are right in the middle of a full technical rebuild with new motors.

So too are the trains which currently run to Reading.

They were refurbished only last year.

So, why are hundreds of brand-new and recently refurbished carriages

They will probably end up sitting in sidings.

Yet, at the same time, the new company will bring

These trains, first unveiled in the 1980s, will be

brought out of retirement, refurbished and put back to work

on the Portsmouth line, replacing trains that

South West Trains rejected them 15 years ago.

The cost of new trains has tumbled, mostly because the cost of borrowing

But manufacturers from Germany, Spain, Italy and China

Hundreds of thousands of pounds have been knocked off

For the government, it is like walking into a car

showroom and ordering a brand-new vehicle straight from the factory

for less than the price of a car that's already sitting

Who pays for the ones we leave behind?

Ultimately, of course, we all do, through our rail fares.

Who is going to pay for it? ?200 million of investment... It is a

very good question, Peter. You should know, Chris Grayling Gosnell!

I am sure that he does but I have actually explode as following a

report that I saw ever in the week. I explored this with First Great

Western and I understand that they are going to accept the 19 brand-new

trains but they want to harmonise their fleet. Quite a lot of logic in

that, and so at some point they will hand them back because they will not

owned by rolling stock companies. -- owned by rolling stock companies. --

90 brand-new trains. British companies. But someone has to take

the hit. As far as I can see, it will not be the train operators in

this case. So it will not be the passengers but someone will have to

pay for it. It will not be the passengers. You are absolutely

issue. We do need to get to the issue. We do need to get to the

bottom of it and we do need the reassurance. And all our

constituents need the reinsurance that they will not have to pay

because there is no subsidy on this franchise, this is a self-sustaining

franchise. South West Trains have had it for 22 years, they do not, I

think, have done a bad job. They are well run company. But the Secretary

of State told me during the week that when they got this bit in from

First Great Western MTR, that they thought it was a substantial win.

They are proposing 22,000 extra seats every peak hour morning into

Waterloo, 30,000 extra passenger seat peak hour out of Waterloo,

Wi-Fi access on every station and clean, lots of smart cards... 40

minutes faster from Weymouth... These are very ambitious, we need to

know that they can deliver. They are ambitious but there must be a

massive change to our real wives, you are always packed in like

cattle, they are too slow and not more Duncan Goodhew any other

European country, it is ridiculous. Incredibly overpriced. Our solution

to this massive problem seems to be, for me, let us make one large

company seeking the profit motive, run it instead of another large

company seeking to make profit out of the railways and if you ask me,

there needs to be a much bigger structural change in the way that we

run our babies if you want to make that kind of skill or change. This

franchising system has delivered big benefits, faster trains, more

places, all of the rest of it, just like that. This is what is being

promised. No, it has already been delivered. Anyone who uses the

trains will know this, there is not a sense of the passenger boys being

a genuinely listened to, there is no worker representation listens to and

Hong Kong take over our new set of Hong Kong take over our new set of

railways will not change that. So would you rather nationalise it?

That is the policy of your party... That is interesting, that could

work, because it will work for the interest of the public. But if you

have one third of the company being done by passengers, another thought

by workers and so on, you could have a better integrated model. Would

that really what? This new method suggest he will have faster and more

trains running. I do not think that will happen but if you had a balance

of interest from people who actually use the railways and ran them, you

would have more likely to have a better service than just being

operated by a larger company. We will move on from trains, thank you.

However, many bumps there may or may not be on the road to Brexit,

one thing we do know for sure is just how many bumps

there are in the roads in the South on account of that bane of every

We sent our reporter Frankie Peck out to conduct an extraordinarily

scientific experiment, which you probably shouldn't try

for yourselves without extensive preparations!

They have always been the scourge of the motorist...

no matter how big or small they appear on the roads,

with what seems to be increasing frequency.

It feels like Groundhog Day, there's yet another report out this

week about the poor state of our roads.

This year's annual local authority road maintenance survey has said it

would take about ?3.81 billion to get the roads here

So, we thought we would do a bit an experiment.

Take one cup of coffee in the footwell...

and we will see if there is any left after a spin around Southampton.

Obviously, a very scientific and foolproof experiment!

The annual local authority road maintenance survey has said

that the poor state of the roads is down to an ageing network,

decades of underfunding, increased traffic and wetter winters.

Potholes are a constant issue for councils and although the survey

reveals the number filled has dropped for the second year running,

a huge 1.7 million were still filled in England and Wales last year -

So, how did the roads in Southampton fare?

Well, it looks like I might need to go and get another cup of coffee.

Good job she had that Tupperware to hand! Unicycle, is that right? And

you are fed up with potholes? Yes, and being a political candidate for

the Labour Party over the last few years has taught me that this is the

biggest issue on the doorstops that there is. People are worried about

this because if you are a cyclist, it is dangerous, you're a swerving,

it could damage your vehicle, if you are disabled or crossing the road

with a pram it is awkward. Then you are filling the men at the moment

you get an asphalt covering it over the top and quickly comes back out

again. So this must be dealt with. The article I read this morning has

replace roads every ten, 20 years, replace roads every ten, 20 years,

they need to be completely resurfaced. In England, the average

number is 55 years. Storing up trouble them? Yes. Not doing enough?

It is public money and we are still trying to cut the deficit we

inherited from the disastrous policies of the Labour Party. Even

you sound bored of that line! I am bored with having to do this. The

government recognises this is a problem. That is why they have

earmarked ?250 million emergency money, which they... But is that

enough so many of our roads need doing? It is designed to deal with

10,000 potholes... I agree with you, I was two tires easily to a pothole

and you are quite right, filling them with,... It is not an economy

as everybody else is suffering. The NHS... People swerving in the front

of things! Hampshire has 240 miles of roads it is seeking to operate...

Just coming here today, I observed the potholes and I 2am getting fed

up with it. Let us make common cause. Part of this is public money

but the other thing that makes me but the other thing that makes me

angry is when you think about certain delivery companies that get

done for tax avoidance, not paying their fair share for the roads that

they are clearly using. You need more accountability. Thank you.

Now our regular round-up of the political week

Here is an unusual thing - an empty hospital bed!

But Bournemouth's new wing is just for private patients.

They're the latest NHS hospital in the South to offer private beds

now generating tens of millions of pounds a year.

No NHS patient should be displaced as a consequence of the private

?100 million of taxpayers' money is being paid in compensation

It is over a botched tendering for the decommissioning

of Magnox nuclear reactors, including Harwell in Oxfordshire.

Plans were unveiled this week to transform the disused

Fawley Power Station chimney and turn it into a public

It is taller than Brighton's i360 and Portsmouth's Spinnaker Tower.

The plan is to build a new town with the fast ferry connection.

Looking down on Portsmouth, which is always important.

Finally, Didcot has been named the most average place in the UK.

This was a fascinating study that they did, they crunched all sorts of

data, looked at all the social local factors, and the reason was that

help politicians get out of their bubble, they said, understand the

lives of real people and to go to Didcot. Do you think it is difficult

for politicians to get out of their bubble and see life as normal

people, people in Didcot? I think that we do get out of the bubble and

we all hold surgeries. We have so much direct exposure to the problems

that people face, we move around our constituencies, very normal and

Aldershot... More so than in Didcot? I am struggling to get the terms of

the idea that to be normal you have to go to Didcot! But we must forget

that Didcot is the spiritual home of the Great Western railway and

special place in the corner of some special place in the corner of some

of our hearts. Do you want to live somewhere that is normal? What is

normal? What is the most abnormal place you could live? What game

bottom of the list, that would be interesting. I must agree, it is too

easy to just say, politicians that any bubble because having that

constituency and having the surgery is Nina Edge are more face-to-face

than the public than many other professions and so, we should stick

up for them. But if you were not, would go into this place but the

clipboard make you more normal or just make a stranger? To study the

normal people, I am not sure what -- that is what the average person does

on a Saturday afternoon. There was a 1940s American from where the

researchers found that the most average place in America and that is

desperately valuable. You can see the point that it is valuable to

know what most people think. I would also like to know, what is the

definition of normal? Normal for you... Different to normal for

Rowenna... What measures are using? There are more common ground between

us than you might have originally thought! There is a diverse Phil

Hughes in the UK. What acts as normal? I am not sure. The fact that

Didcot has Tom Pope must tell us something about the survey.

So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes

Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?

And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,

To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford

by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.

Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will

it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can

predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning

with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not

mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.

Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in

business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why

we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under

Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you

do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up

lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you

used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get

back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a

mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in

this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places

like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the

country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the

Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic

areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well

which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part

as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has

taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is

fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are

discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if

they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.

If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your

vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of

representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we

have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124

seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality

of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very

effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is

not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,

that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it

not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the

debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is

something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people

the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually

produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the

foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the

Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social

democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I

do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party

together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own

decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you

saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a

consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing

could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is

moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in

2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look

at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax

changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to

?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate

threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from

currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,

freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax

credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an

impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two

children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched

the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit

changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third

or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The

Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It

is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I

have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith

Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody

should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the

state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by

better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly

less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have

to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her

other language and the role of the government and the state when she

sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government

conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she

says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not

what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would

not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a

much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of

progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when

George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they

were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this

government was going to meet the demand for public services when it

has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do

now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare

issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution

Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which

has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from

the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.

Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the

losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem

for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her

narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about

managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have

at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still

saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and

spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle

classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely

going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to

mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was

told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came

up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions

involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and

benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to

fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you

find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance

rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of

the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an

early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an

albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in

income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel

duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going

to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they

end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call

stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up

in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of

the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to

have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would

like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best

argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at

the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives

feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the

need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very

interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is

trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and

spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.

Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that

demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The

Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to

India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not

know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The

prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest

answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one

because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms

will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to

trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always

go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in

a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.

Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get

out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day

after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and

they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal

talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a

symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.

Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have

run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the

Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the

Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.

Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.

As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,

we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"