16/02/2014 Sunday Politics Wales

Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be

extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent

Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the

European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant

development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has

the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow

Later in the programme: These are Another

Later in the programme: These are taxing times for Labour and for the

Conservatives. We speak to one of the Tory Assembly

rebels. out his budget for next year. We

look at his decisions and priorities with the help of his chief of staff.

With me, the best and brightest political panel in the business. The

twits will be as incessant and probably as welcome as the recent

rain. A significant new development in the debate over Scottish

independence this morning, the President of the European

Commission, President Jose Manuel Barroso, has confirmed what the

Nationalists have long denied, that an independent Scotland would have

to reply to join the European Union as a new member, that it would

require the agreement of all 28 member states and that would be, in

his words, extremely difficult, if not impossible. In case there is a

new country, a new state coming out of a current member state, it will

have to apply and, this is very important, the application to the

union would have to be approved by all of the other member states.

Countries like Spain, with the secessionist issues they have? I

don't want to interfere in your democratic discussion here, but of

course, it will be extremely difficult to get the approval of all

of the other member states, to have a new member coming in from one

member state. We have seen that that Spain has been opposing even the

recognition, for instance, so it is a similar state. It is a new

country. I believe it is great to be externally difficult, if not

impossible. Well, he says he doesn't want to interfere, but he has just

dropped a medium-sized explosive into the debate on Scottish

independence? A huge story. Alex Salmond must be wondering what is

going to go wrong next. His pitch to the Scottish people is based on two

things, the currency union with England and the rest of the United

Kingdom, which was blown apart last week, and this morning, his claims

that Scotland would automatically get into the European Union has been

dynamited. He's not only saying that they would have to apply, it is also

saying it might be impossible to get the agreement of all 28 members to

allow Scotland in. That's even more significant than the application?

The reference to Spain is interesting, we talk about Catalan

independence, an economic and active area that Spain does not want to be

independent. About five other countries are blocking Kosovo's

accession to the EU. There is no reason they would want to encourage

the secessionist in their country by letting Scotland do the same. If

Scotland does have to apply, and it does get in, it solves the currency

problem because all new members have to accept the Euro? At the moment,

the SNP are rejecting that quite strongly. What an interesting

intervention today. However, I know that those arguing that Scotland

should stay in the union are worried that the polls are tightening. A lot

of these interventions, parents care arguments, they don't look like they

are convincing the Scottish people. We haven't had any polls yet? We

haven't, but we have since the currency debate was reignited in the

last few weeks and it shows the polls tightening slightly. I think

Alistair Darling's campaign would prefer to be much further ahead at

the stage. They are worried that these technical commandments are not

having much sway. Are the polls tightening slightly? They could be

within the statistical margin for error. They are, but not much. Alex

Salmond's main page is one of reassurance. He wants to say you can

vote for independence, a pound in the pocket will be the same as

before and you will still be a member of the European Union. In the

last three or four matter days, both of those claims have been blown

apart. Angus MacNeil has already told BBC Radio 5 Live that the

remarks are nonsense and he is playing more politics. We hope to

speak to the SNP's finance minister, John Swinney, a little bit later in

the programme. It is not just the constant rain that London commuters

have had to deal with. There was also a strike on the tube that

disrupted the travel of millions. A second stoppage was on the cards,

but it was called off at the last minute.

The leader of the biggest underground workers union, the RMT,

is Bob Crow, who has led his members into 24 strikes on the tube since

2005, as well as disputes on the national rail network. Under his

leadership, the union's membership has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to

more than 80,000, at a time when union membership overall has been

shrinking. The current dispute has seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris

Johnson over the mayor's plans to close tube station ticket offices.

The 48-hour stoppage at the beginning of this month is estimated

to have cost the London economy ?100 million. The two sides have agreed a

truce, for now, but Mr Crow has threatened further action if the

mayor imposes his changes. Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday

interview. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You

have suspended the strike for the moment. What will it take to call it

off entirely? Want to know first of all wider booking office has to

close. The Mayor of London made it quite clear in his election

programme that the booking offices would remain open. It was strange,

really, because Ken Livingstone wanted to close them down and the

mayor thought it was popular to keep them open and put in his campaign to

keep them open. However, we have not the news figures. We are being told

only 3% of people use the booking offices. That's not true. In

research done, if somebody does to a booking office with somebody sitting

there and asks for a ticket of less than ?5, they are not allowed to

sell them a ticket, it is madness. Do you use the ticket office? When

it is open, yes. You said to ITV that he didn't. I don't know what I

said to ITV, I don't know what time people use them, sometimes they are

open and sometimes they are closed. People make out that these ticket

office staff are people that sit behind barriers like a newsagent.

I'm not knocking a newsagent, however, these people were the same

people treated like Lions when they were helping people named in the

terrorist incidents, taking them out of the panels. Suddenly they are

lazy people that sit in ticket offices. My understanding is that

the people would come from behind and be out and about now. It is the

management wants to run the underground without ticket offices,

isn't that their prerogative? They are paid to manage, not you, not

your members, they are the managers? Managers are there to manage, and we

want good managers. But we've got some really bad managers that are

not looking at the railway as a whole. This is a successful

industry, not an industry in decline, one of the most successful

in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million people a day. All of the forecast is

or it will move to 3.6 million per day. The mayor wants to run services

on a Friday and Saturday night. We are not opposed to that. However, it

does not make sense that if more people are going to be using the

tube on Friday and Saturday, coming home at two o'clock three o'clock in

the morning, a lot of people drinking, a lot of people not

dragging, why take 1000 people of the network that come to the aid of

people that are looking to people? I want to show you this picture. This

is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I think it is. I was trying to copy

you. You deserve this break because you have done a fantastic job for

your members. Yes, I don't see what that has got to do with it. Let's

get every editor of the daily newspapers and see where they go on

their holidays, I would like to know. What I choose to do... I'm not

attacking you for doing that... You've got a picture up there, I've

got to say, why don't they go and follow Boris Johnson when he was

away on holiday, when the riots were taking place in London, and he

refused to come back? Why don't they go and view the editors of

newspapers, where they go on holiday? Why do they look at you

when you go on holiday? They sometimes do, actually. The basic

pay of a tube driver will soon be ?52,000. Ticket office workers are

already earning over ?35,000. Never mind a holiday on Copacabana beach,

or membership by your house for what you have done for them? When you

look at the papers this morning, I see that Wayne Rooney is going to

get a ?70 million deal over the next four deals. I see NHS doctors are

getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot of people that do a lot of people

that, in my opinion, don't do anything for society. The top paid

people in this country should be doctors and nurses. Unfortunately,

we live in a jungle. If you are not strong, the bosses will walk all

over you. The reason why we got good terms and conditions is because we

fought for them. The reality is, all of these three political parties,

liberals, Tories and Labour, they have all put no programme that to

defend working people. So we have to do it on our own. And that is why

you have done such a great job for your members and why union

membership has been rising, people want to be part of a successful

operation. But it has come at a cost for less well-paid workers, who

travel on the cheap? If everyone believes if London Underground tube

workers take a pay freeze they are going to redistribute the money to

the rest of the workers that work on the cheap... But the people that

travel on the tube, let's look at some of them, they are the ones that

suffer from your strike action. The starting salary of a cheap driver

now, ?48,000. The starting salary for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22,000

for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a teacher starting out. As your

members have spread, they have had to live through 24 strikes in 13

years to push up your members wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The

have put a pay freeze on by conservatives and liberals. The

police constables, so have the teachers. We have had the ability to

go and fight. The reality is, at the end of the day, as I have said

before, no one is going to put up the cause for workers. Not one

single party in parliament are fighting the cause for workers. They

all support privatisation, they all support keeping the anti-trade union

laws, they all support illegal wars around the world. Unless they have a

fighting trade union, our members pay would be as low as some others.

You said we could not care less if we have 1 million strikes. But these

people, the lower paid people who travel on the tube, who need it as

an essential service, they care. Of course they care, I've said before

that I apologise to the troubling public for the dispute that took

place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It two to tango. If the boy never

imposed terms and conditions on us against our will... But you've got

great terms and conditions! But it's a constant battle, they are trying

to change them. Drivers are having their pay going up to ?50,000. You

said they are making it worse, it is going up. They are trying to make

things worse for workers. You said at the start of the interview that

the tube strike cost ?100 million in two days. It means that when members

go to work for two days it is worth ?100 million. That demonstrates what

they are worth. Only a fighting trade union can defend workers out

there. Your members should enjoy what you have got for them, because

it's not going to last, is it? Technology will change the whole way

your business operates. As Karl Marx says, you said I was a mixture of

Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and the Sopranos. I thought that was

quite funny... The Karl Marx part of it, the only thing that is constant

is change. We have been crying out for new technology. But for who? To

put people on the dole, so they can't do anything and do anything

for society, or technology so everybody benefits, lower fares,

better service and better terms and conditions for the workers. But you

have made Labour so expensive on the underground that management now has

a huge incentive to substitute technology for Labour. And that's

what it's going to do, it is closing the ticket offices and very soon,

starting in 2016, the driverless trains coming. What I am saying is

that your members should enjoy this because it's not going to last.

Driverless trains are not coming in, it is not safe. We have them in

Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it is not safe? These are new lines

that have been built so that when it breaks down, people can get out of

the tunnel. Would you want to be stuck on a summers day on the

Northern line? A pregnant woman who cannot get off the train? Absolute

panic that takes place, the reality is simple, it is a nonsense. It's

not going to happen because it is a Victorian network. On Docklands

railway for example it is driverless but when the train breaks down, it

is above ground on a very small section. All of these other cities

managed to have it. You remind me about Henry Ford in the 1930s when

he said, you see that robot over their, he cannot buy a car. All

sorts of new jobs are being created all the time in other areas. Come

back to the ticket offices, not many people use the ticket offices any

more, what is wrong with getting the stuff out of the ticket office on to

the concourses, meeting and greeting, helping disabled people

and tourists and making it a better service? They can do more on the

concourse than they can in the ticket office. Andrew, he took the

decision to close down every single ticket office. You cannot compare

for example Chesham with the likes of Heathrow. Are you telling me

people are going to be on a long transatlantic flight, arrived at

Heathrow and cannot get a ticket. The stuff will be redeployed on the

concourse. The simple problem is that it is not just about the

booking office, it is about people having a visual. If you are

partially sighted, you cannot use the machines. If British is not your

first language, you cannot use the offices. How many languages do your

members speak? I don't know, I struggle with English. The machines

can speak many different languages. They are dehumanising things. You

phone the bank, all you hear is, press one for this, two for that.

People want to hear it human being and what makes the London

Underground so precious is that people want to see people. Having

well-dressed, motivated people out on the concourse, what part of that

don't you like? They will be on the concourse and they will have

machines. The fact is that London Underground did a risk assessment of

closing down their booking offices and it is clear that if you are

disabled, if you are partially sighted, London Underground becomes

more dangerous. You are posing the closing of ticket offices, opposing

driverless trains, when you opposed to the Oyster card when it came in?

No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal with it. It is not the only way.

They should supplement the staff and the job. If more people used the

London Underground system, you want more staff to deal with them. Let's

look at your mandate to strike. Of your members who work on the Tube,

only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30% voted for the strike, so 70%

actually didn't vote to strike of your members, but the strike went

ahead. Isn't it right to have a higher threshold before you can

cause this disruption? It would be lovely if everyone voted but the

Tories took that away. We used to have ballots at the workplace. What

I'm trying to say to you is that we used to have a ballot box at the

workplace and the turnouts were higher. The Tories believe that if

they can have a secret ballot where ballot papers went to people's home

addresses, where they could be persuaded by the bosses, votes would

be different. Let's go back to the workplace ballot because you get a

bigger turnout. Will the RMT re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I

have no intention to. We got expelled from the Labour Party. But

you will give some money to the Labour councils? Those that support

our basic policies get money, we don't give money directly to MPs, we

give it to constituencies. Are you going to stand for re-election in

2016? I might do, I might not. You haven't decided yet? No, but more

than likely I will do. And will you stand again as an anti-EU candidate?

Yes, I am standing in London, and right across, completely different

to UKIP's policies. They are anti-European, they believe all of

the faults of Europe are down to the immigrants. We are anti-European

Union. If London Underground is as badly run as you think, why don't

you run for mayor? That is down the road, it has not come up yet. I'm

not ruling anything out. I'm not ruling out getting your job on the

Sunday Politics. You have got to retire as well, you have got to put

your feet up. I will get you to renegotiate my package. Shall we go

on strike first? If I could have your wages, I would have two trips

to Rio every year. Good luck. And if you're in the London region they'll

have more on the Tube strike later in the programme. Let's get back to

those comments from Jose Manuel Barroso, and reaction to these

comments from John Swinney. Scottish Nationalists denied all along you

would have to reapply, we have now heard it without any caveats, you

will and you might not get in. I think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments

were preposterous this morning. He compared the situation to the one in

Kosovo. Britain is the member, Scotland is not the member. If you

go independent, you will have to reapply, he says. All of the

arrangements we have in place are compatible with the workings of the

European Union because we have been part of it for 40 years. The

propositions we put forward work about essentially negotiating the

continuity of Scotland's membership of the European Union and that

position has now been explained and debated and discussed and reinforced

by comments made by experts. We are talking about the president of the

European commission and we have spoken to him since he gave that

interview on the BBC this morning, it was an intervention that he made

that he wanted to lay out that Scotland should be in no doubt that

if they vote for independence they will have to apply for European

membership and they may not get it if it is vetoed by other members.

What he didn't say is that no state of the European Union have indicated

they would veto Scottish membership. The Spanish foreign

minister has. They have said that if there is an agreed process within

the UK that Scotland becomes an independent country, then Spain has

got nothing to say about the issue. That indicates to me clearly that

the Spanish government will have no stance to take on the Scottish

membership of the European Union because it is important that

Scotland is already part of the European Union, our laws are

compatible with the European Union and we play our part. The only

threat to Scotland's participation in the European Union is the

potential in/out referendum that David Cameron wants to have in 2017.

It has not been a great week for you, has it? Everything you seem to

want, the monetary union, that has been blown out of the water by the

Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel Barroso has said you will have to

reapply to the European Union, it has not been a good week. You will

follow the debate closely, and the Sunday newspapers are full about the

backlash taking place within Scotland at the bullying remarks of

the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well

now? He is making an indirect comparison between Scotland and

Kosovo. If you vote for independence and you do have two apply again to

join, if you do get in it solves your currency problem because you

will have to accept the euro. We have set out an option on the

currency arrangements which would be to establish the currency union. You

would have to adopt the euro. That's not rate because you have to be part

of the exchange-rate mechanism for two years before you can apply for

membership and an independent Scotland has no intention of signing

up to the exchange rate mechanism or the single currency. We are

concentrating on setting out our arguments for maintaining the pound

sterling, which is in the interests of Scotland and the UK. Thank you

for joining us this morning. This week's least surprising news

was that Labour won the safe seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East in a

by-election, following the death of the MP Paul Goggins. With the result

so predictable, all eyes were on whether this would be the sixth time

this parliament that UKIP would come second. And whether they'd chip away

at Labour's vote, not just the Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed

up all night to find out what it all meant. Forget the hype. Forget the

theorising. And yes - everyone has a theory. UKIP are learning from us.

What have they picked up from you? To be silly. Thanks to this week's

by-election we've got some hard evidence in paper form that helps

answer the question: How are UKIP doing? Turns out the answer is well,

but not well enough to beat Labour. I'm therefore claim -- declare that

Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have come second and increased their

share of the vote quite significantly. But their performance

isn't as good as their performances in some of the other by-elections

this parliament. Just don't suggest to them that their bandwagon has

ground to a halt. A week ago you'd told me you were going to win, what

happened? No, I didn't, I said I wanted to win. My mistake. How are

you feeling? It is a Labour stronghold, we always knew it was

going to be a fight. Labour were running scared of letting us present

our arguments. UKIP's campaign in Wythenshawe didn't point to the

right but to the left, with leaflets that branded Labour as a party of

millionaires who didn't care about the working class. It wasn't a

winning strategy but it did help them beat the Tories who focused on

dog mess and potholes instead. Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford

from Manchester Uni thinks they could be on the right track. He's

analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP voters for a new book, which could

confound the received wisdom about the party. The common media image of

the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy faced golf club and -- member from

the south-east of the UK and many UKIP activists do resemble that

stereotype to some extent, they do pick up a lot of activists from the

Conservative party, but UKIP voters are older, more working class, more

likely to live in Northern, urban areas, and they are much more

anti-system than anti-EU. And they're precisely the voters that

the Tory MP David Mowat needs if he's to hold on to his narrow

majority in the constituency just down the road. Do you have a UKIP

strategy in your seat? Our UKIP strategy is to point out that if

they want a referendum on if they want to be in the EU or not, there

is one way to get it, for the Conservatives to form their next

government and for me to be their MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy

what they want? I'm not sure it will be accidental. People need to

realise that if Ed Miliband is the Prime Minister, there will be no

referendum on the EU and UKIP may have made their point but they would

not have got their referendum. Over at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up

time. Not helping, Nigel? I had major surgery on the 19th of

November and I am still weak as a kitten. I can barely lift a pint

with my right hand, it is as serious as that. The answer is, Carreon,

chaps, you're all doing a very good job. There will be carrying on to

the European elections in May, which will provide more evidence of if the

UKIP and wagon is powering on or if it is just parked. -- bandwagon.

With me now is the Conservative MEP Vicky fraud and UKIP director of

medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He will also be a candidate in the

upcoming European elections. You came second in Manchester, but it

was not a close second. -- Vicky Ford. There is nothing that is a

game changer? I think it is very unusual for any insurgent party,

like the liberals used to be, to actually win a safe seat of the

opposition. Those shocks, going back to Walkington etc, it tended to be

winning seats against an unpopular government. We did extraordinarily

well in Wythenshawe. Labour compressed the campaign down to the

shortest possible time and maxed out the postal vote. Whatever we think

about Labour, they do have an efficient machine, lots of union

activists signed a lot of people with a lot of know-how. It pushed

you into third place and showed the increasing irrelevance of the Tories

in the North? Tory minded voters in the North Sea more inclined to vote

for UKIP than you? I think by-elections are by-elections. The

same day, we took a seat from Labour in Birmingham. Well, that was a

by-election as well, so we should discount that as well. You should

learn from them, and we need to look forward to the elections in 2014.

That is in May this year, when we have a chance to really grab this

change in Europe, grab this change that we were talking about just now.

You don't worry, particularly in the north, if people want to vote

against Labour your supporters are drifting to UKIP? I think people

vote UKIP in a European election and they have done that for many years.

They vote that because they want change. The problem is, Patrick's

party have had MEPs since 1999 and they cannot deliver that change.

They can't because they don't have seats in Westminster. It was on that

video, the only way we are going to get the change we want in Europe is

to have that referendum and have the renegotiation, and that means vote

Tory. What do you say to that? Let's get real, the Conservative Party has

not won a Parliamentary majority in 22 years. But the only way you will

get a referendum, if that is what motivates you, and with UKIP it is,

the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if

there is a majority Conservative government at the next election. And

you could well stop that from happening? I don't accept that. I

believe, just as we forced David Cameron and into a referendum pledge

he explicitly ruled out making before through our success, and I

was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not

be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our

electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the

European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against

his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in

the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had

the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.

The only way you are going to get a renegotiation, a change in our

relationship with Europe and an in or out referendum is to have a

Conservative Government. Please, UKIP, stop pretending that you can

deliver, because you don't deliver and you don't... We have delivered,

we forced David Cameron to give a pledge for a referendum he didn't

want to make. We will know if you are right about Ed Miliband or not,

you will have to tell us going into the campaign. If you are wrong, what

do you do then? There are still loads of reasons for people to vote

UKIP. A referendum is one thing. David Cameron, and I asked him

directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath

of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed

Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably

maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has

been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential

for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those

disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming

towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We

want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people

who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.

That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.

UKIP MEPs do not turn up to defenders. If President Hollande is

as good as his word and says there will be no substantial

renegotiation, certainly no treaty change this side of 2017 when he is

up for the election, what do you do then? He is a French Socialist Prime

Minister, I don't expect him to agree. But you can't bring anything

of substance back with these negotiations. Then people will vote

to leave. The Prime Minister has been very clear that British public

opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a

renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what

we get with the deal on the table in 2017. If the status quo was what we

have today, I would vote to leave. But I want to renegotiate. We will

have to move on. For those viewers lucky enough to live in the East of

England, they will be seeing more of Patrick in a moment. You are

watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be

talking about, what else, the weather,

Hello, and on the Sunday Politics Wales: I speak to one of the

Conservative AMs sacked from the Shadow Cabinet in a row about tax

powers. And just what will Wales do with

those tax powers? We ask the Finance Minister.

And plans to centralise hospital services in south Wales. Labour MP

Chris Bryant says he's ready to fight.

Well, he was on this programme last Sunday talking about his spat with

the Welsh Secretary over tax powers. Andrew RT Davies, the assembly's

opposition leader, has certainly had a busy week since then. On

Wednesday, he sacked four shadow ministers who rebelled in a vote on

tax devolution. By Friday there were reports that he had lost the support

of senior Welsh Tories, but he was in a bullish mood this morning when

I asked him about the briefings against him.

I think it is highly regrettable that people are supposedly giving

briefings out if that is the case. But we are seeing a source as an

some of them have even been promoted to senior sources. What I know as a

fact is that the 14 Conservative members in the National Assembly are

committed to one thing and one thing only, and that is improving the

lives of the people of Wales. Some of the more bizarre and outlandish

remarks of being on probation and also being deselected, I can

categorically say that none of that was spoken about at the Welsh border

management conference call on Friday. You would understand that

colleagues have of you and want to express that view. The view is most

probably the same as mine. I am deeply disappointed we find

ourselves in this situation and I will work with colleagues in the

Assembly group and the wider party to make sure it is not party

differences we are talking about but comment, Welsh Government, failures

in Wales and the failure to deliver an economy that takes jobs and the

Health Service that looks after people as well as an education

system are tonnes of students for the 21st century. Those other

priorities. Within the management board and the party, you have the

backing to carry on as leader? Without a shadow of a doubt.

One of those rebels is the Conservative AM for Monmouth, Nick

Ramsay, who is here with me now. Welcome to the programme. You did

vote against the party's whip. Shouldn't you have expected to be

disciplined? Energy I voted for the position of the UK

Government, the position of David Cameron as the Prime Minister. This

was discussed in advance. There were many concerns by a number of my

colleagues about the position the group was proposing to take. We made

our views known and ultimately we were not going to vote against David

Cameron's UK Government policy. Headed the group get into this

position where you were being asked to vote against David Cameron's

policy? You might well ask and lessons need to be learned. It was

obvious this was going to cause us a problem and for anyone to say there

are not problems in the Conservative group at the moment, there clearly

are. We have to be upfront about those. They can be dealt with but we

have got to accept the Abbey. We have to move on from there. Those

problems were always going to develop. You cannot ask people to

vote against the principles. I could not fought for a Plaid Cymru

amendment that would go against my own UK party policy. Was sure

sacking and the other three dismissals and overreaction? It is a

matter for him in the Shadow Cabinet there are different ways to deal

with things. I have been loyal to Andrew for two and a half years

since he became leader. I did not resign from the Shadow Cabinet. He

decided my views were incompatible with his on this. You would have to

ask him whether it was an overreaction or not. It caused a lot

of surprise, and being in Brussels, on a train and finding that out was

a surprise. We need to look closely at the way the Welsh group operates.

You say there are problems of the group. What do you mean? There are

clearly problems if for members of the Shadow Cabinet are told they are

losing their jobs because they are backing the Conservative Party line.

Do you mean a lack of faith in Andrew RT Davies? Now, this is not

about his leadership. I have been loyal to him for the last couple of

years and I did not resign. I was put in his position as the other

members of the group were. This is about the members of my group being

able to support the UK Government policy and not being asked to

support a troublemaking Plaid Cymru amendment if they so wish. I'm sorry

Andrew has taken this course of action. Do you have any intention of

challenging him for the leadership? Run against him in 2011. No, it is

not about this. I have been loyal to Andrew but I am loyal to David

Cameron and the UK Conservative Party and the Conservative Party

family as a whole. I think we need to address these problems and Andrew

needs to think very carefully about how these issues can be addressed.

We cannot go on and pretend nothing has happened. It has. This can be

sorted out. There needs to be discussions about that. There is

talk of other Shadow Cabinet ministers potentially leaving the

Shadow Cabinet. Is there any truth in that? I have no idea. You would

have to ask other members of the Shadow Cabinet. I know my position

and the position of those members who were sacked. There has been

discussion about this since then. It is a shame that was not more

discussion before that. As I say, we need to get to grips with this and

make sure members of my group are not put in this position in future.

What's next? How do you move forward? There was a rift created

when members of the Shadow Cabinet were sat on a point of principle

that they clearly had very little option to do something else. Andrew

needs to think very carefully about how we deal with this situation. I

am the chairman of the group. My daughter is open to work out how we

can sort this out. -- my door is open. We look to Andrew to see what

he proposes. You think his leadership has been weakened by love

this? -- all of this? It is very sad that this has happened but I think

it is salvageable. As I say, there is an issue here and it is a

problem. You cannot put members of the Welsh Conservative Party in a

position where they are asked to vote against something which is

overall Conservative policy. This has caused problems, it can be dealt

with and I'm sure it will be. Is Downing Street watching all of this?

I think Downing Street watch all aspects of the party across the

country. The Prime Minister will be aware of everything that is going

on. I am sure he is looking for us to sort it out. These sorts of

things do happen. All parties have differences and there are far bigger

differences in a Labour Party than there are my party about this. You

mentioned you're still the chairman of the Conservative group in the

Assembly. Your chair chairman of the committee. That is why you are in

Brussels. And you going to lose those two positions but you might

could there be more strife ahead? I think we should move on in unity and

make sure that these problems do not happen in the future. I am the

chairman of the Conservative group the expected to remain the chairman?

-- do you expect to remain the chairman? I stand up for those who

want to have a point of principle to support the UK Government policy.

That is non-devolved policy. All the members of Parliament in the

Conservative Party would agree that David Cameron has a right to bring

forward his proposals in the Draft Wales Bill concerning income tax. I

knew that those had to be supported. As the chairman of the group, Andrew

RT Davies says this. This is not me imposing a party diktats, this is a

decision by the group to vote in the way they did. How do you respond?

Andrew is a leader of the group that he'll provide should Egypt

direction, I am sure. -- strategic direction. Some members could not

support this and as a result accommodation should be made. Andrew

Cooper rid of action which was to dismiss Shadow Cabinet members. It

is for him to decide if that was appropriate. I keep coming back to

it and it is a very important point. You cannot ask people in the Welsh

Conservative group to have to choose between the Welsh Conservative group

and the party. My loyalty, it always has been. I am a loyal person to the

party and the Assembly as well. I understand the concerns of those

members who felt in an impossible position. Mister Davies was asked

how much of this was down to the relationship between him and David

Jones. We hear a lot of talk that they do not get along. You hear a

lot of talk about everything in politics. What truly matters is the

fundamentals here. David Jones Secretary of State responsible for

overall policy, non-devolved policy. Andrew has an important role as

well. The two of them should get on and I am sure they do. This is all

rumours that go around. I am sure the current problems we are

experiencing can be sorted out. Thank you very much.

Let's stay with tax. I've been speaking to the Finance Minister,

Jane Hutt, about what the Welsh Government will do once it gets

tax-raising powers. Don't assume that tax collecting

will simply switch from Whitehall to Wales. What is really happening is

that some taxes, including stamp duty, will be switched off by the UK

Treasury. The Welsh Government will switch them on again. When they do,

they might see things differently. Take stamp duty. The Conservatives

would scrap the tax on homes under ?250,000. The Welsh Treasury, being

treated in Cardiff, might go another route. What about a whole new set of

rates and a whole new way of collecting revenue? It used to be

looked at very closely and will get all the bands of stamp duty to have

a fairer system. What does the First Minister have in mind? I asked his

Finance Minister, Jane Hutt. It has been about powers for the purpose to

get these taxis devolved to Wales to make the model relevant. -- to make

them more relevant. I have set up a tax policy advisory group to look at

fairness and simplicity and supporting jobs and growth.

Articulate, if you look at stamp duty, land tax. People will want to

know if the Government will put up taxes or not. You want these powers,

when you going to come up with a policy? Very early days. We are

looking forward to having a draft bill for pre-consultation. We are

making all the preparations for legislation that will come through.

We hope that is before the next general election. The work we are

having to do now is to enable us to prepare to have these taxis devolved

to Wales but to have them with the tax policy which will sit Wales. If

you look at what is coming over, we're going to have stamp duty, land

tax and landfill tax. When those taxes are transferred to Wales, we

have the opportunity to have new policy and legislation, make

we have had consultation is not just with house-builders, but those who

see a great housing need and opportunity. It is too early to talk

about rates in terms of taxes. It is about the policies we can do, for

example, to get rid of a very crude slab of structure at the moment. Is

that something you're going to do so that when you pay stamp duty on a

new house, the amount you pay is graded instead of these cliffs in

the taxes? Is that what you will do? We're very interested in looking at

that. When we had consultation is last year, we had consultations with

house-builders and those in the housing sector about what we could

do if we got stamp duty and land tax devolved. They said we need to

reform it. This slab is very artificial because it means that,

you know, up to 175,000... The 1% cliffs which then goes up to 2%, 3%

and onwards at each slab, it does mean that what happens is that as a

bunching an end that sum of money once you have to pay the tax. It is

very artificial. It will take a very long time. There will be legislation

in Westminster and here. When do you predict that people will start

paying tax to the Welsh Government? Give me a date. Probably not until

2018. That might sound a long time ahead. Let's get the bill through

and let's get the legislation through. Let's get this new Wales

act in 2015 and then we can start. We got the election 2016. -- we have

got. We have got to collect this tax, manage this tax and be very

clear about what the policy will be. As I said at the starting point,

and this is what Silke said, this is about powers for purpose. It is

about enabling us to be responsible to make sure we have the right tax

policies for revenues in Wales. You also said at the start that this

package on offer in the Draft Wales Bill is a good deal for Wales.

Meanwhile, your colleagues are Shadow Welsh Secretary is talking

about tax competition across the UK. What is the position here? Is tax

competition something you're worried about? We were signed up to this

from the start. The cross-party group also said that the Hall of

Silk in its entirety was something we signed up to. We would

we want those leave us as a responsible Welsh Government. Should

people look forward to paying more or less tax? First of all we need to

look at getting those levers. We need to look at the

responsibilities. I am the Finance Minister and this is about revenues.

Once income from those taxes is transferred to Wales, it will be a

switch from the Treasury and the switch on here. People know that we

will be fair about that and we will be responsible. That is why we have

experts helping us. There will be a full consultation and we want to

ensure that taxes like those around property transactions, for homes and

non-domestic property, is theatre and more progressive and meets the

needs of the people in Wales. With the possible recent exception

of tax, no topic looms large over Welsh politics like the NHS. A plan

to centralise some key hospital services in south Wales faces an

uncertain future. The NHS as a blueprint, but one of

the health boards involved refuses to accept all the changes. The

Health Board rejects plans for accident and emergency and

specialist care for mothers, newborn babies and children. It stands to

lose services from the local hospital for people in the Rhondda.

Labour MP Chris Bryant gave his reaction. I am not happy. One of the

problems was that they were making an assumption that people from the

Rhondda and elsewhere in the valleys would go to Bridgend on Murtha if

services were not available at the Royal got more in. That is a big

mistake. It is an irony at the very moment they were deciding these

things on Thursday, the road was closed because of the snow and

people could not have got to the other two hospitals from the

Rhondda. Everybody will go to Cardiff. I do not think they have

factored into the equation is properly the effect that will have

an Cardiff, which is already at capacity. I have a real worry that

these proposals are not correct for Cardiff, let alone the people of the

Rhondda. That is why I will fight against them. That is a compromise

option out there know that will give a measure of protection to the

services at your local hospital, the Royal Glamorgan. Will you be pushing

for that doesn't not go far enough? I am delighted that one of the

things that programme says is that there needs to be an emphasis on

acute services in particular for the elderly, because we have a lot of

elderly people in the Rhondda. I am delighted that service will improve

and they will improve paediatric support. I really do worry in

particular about people who will not be taken by an Ann Jones to hospital

and that all of those people will go straight down to Cardiff. -- by an

ambulance. The already problems in Cardiff with ambulances queueing up

to park and the services in the hospital. I worry about that. It is

great that the local Health Board have come up with an alternative

solution, which I think will watch mock -- will work much better. I

want to see that adopted. The Rhondda MP Chris Bryant.

Joining me in the studio is our political editor Nick Servini. Let's

just Re-the Conservatives Story. It Is Worth Having A Reminder That It

Is About The Form Of Income Tax That Is Is In The Process Of Being

Devolved. The Welsh Covered In Future will not be able to isolate

or target particular bands. Any increase up or down has to be

mirrored in tandem at first 20p and 40p. Most Assembly Members believe

it is too restrictive and will not be used. One of those who believe

that as a leader of the Welsh coal, Conservatives, Andrew RT Davies. The

lockstep model is introduced by the Conservative lead College in

Government. With him being against it, he is going against the policy

of David Cameron and the Welsh Secretary David Jones. What we found

out this week is that he has had to sack for assembling for supporting

the Prime Minister. -- for assembling. One of those Assembly

Members, you got an idea from where he was coming from a tasty was not

prepared to vote against the party because he supported the lockstep

model. He admitted there was a problem within the group at the

Assembly but something that could be overcome. One that element to all of

this is he has had to sack for Assembly Members of an issue that is

very technical. With all due respect to those who have been fired, the

views had to dominate discussions intimidated the Mac added dinner

tables. -- Arent the dinner tables this Sunday. Andrew RT Davies has

tried to stamp his authority. It was interesting and a radio interview

that he gave this morning talking about anonymous briefings over a

period of two and a half years since he has become leader. Central to all

of this is a relationship with the Welsh Secretary, David Jones. It has

been a difficult relationship. They disagreed over the income tax model.

Davis talk about the debate around this scrapping of the Welsh office.

That relationship will need to improve. Clearly it is about him try

to stamp his authority on the party. Can he tough it out? All eyes will

be on the Assembly group. Various sources have told BBC where he did

not have a great support the. Andrew RT Davies says the four rebels

defied the whip so he had no option to sack them. All eyes will be on

whether he can retain the support of the Assembly group.

direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,

back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking

about the weather. What could be more British? It has been

practically the only topic of conversation for the past few

weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,

between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.

That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the

author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line

or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was

Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.

UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to

their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very

fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband

to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government

failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual

argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate

change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't

think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly

because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The

polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm

a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not

sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts

David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those

huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he

has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate

change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in

2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and

pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything.

This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,

they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government

is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by

the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to

approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.

What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down?

Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,

the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than

green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed

Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there

isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems

expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further

south because of climate change. Or if it is, it is beyond our

knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's

saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science

at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate

change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had

no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in

the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual

phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour

Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a

fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather

than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,

they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest

summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that

can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is

difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that

case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,

what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the

interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come

out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we

can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick

O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.

Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise

reflection on that. They got 18%, 23% last year. The case he is making

is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour

voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP

that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of

social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their

insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly

well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to

the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for

Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a

very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a

commentator rather than head of communications for a political

party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome

priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop

of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic

safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be

left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no

longer exists. And it is a real, real, dramatic crisis. The second is

that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,

I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get

it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two

weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see

how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there

have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been

scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country

is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding

pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the

safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory

reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?

No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not

up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think

the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a

full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had

some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,

instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of

money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when

members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,

the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties,

ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made

deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a

centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about

this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is

it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them

look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You

can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But

the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate

the poor and extend opportunity. One of the worst moments for the Tories

was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact

that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the

largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.

The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't

vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of

them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think

it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than

trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!

The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I

want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of

February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 12th,

there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an

improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up

one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden

change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is

completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his

nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and

depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.

Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot

shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women

to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.

Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less

likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives

and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential

demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the

public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they

really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the

following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just

increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour

seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told

that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It

looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of

rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the

faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,

they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female

face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is

proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?

Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a

kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.

The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As

opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very

male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in

constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change

things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they

work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense

advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will

that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see

how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going

to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour

Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think

it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I

would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?

I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her

stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week

off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is

Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.